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Edited by Nicholas Burns and Jonathon Price EDITED BY NICHOLAS BURNS AND JONATHON PRICE CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDE: Graham Allision; Zoë Baird; Robert D. Blackwill; Nicholas Burns; James Cartwright; John Dowdy; Peter Feaver; Niall Ferguson; Stephen Hadley; Jennifer M. Harris; Christopher Kirchhoff; Jane Holl Lute; Joseph S. Nye; Thomas Pritzker; Kirk Rieckhoff; John Sawers; Julianne Smith; James Steinberg; Douglas Stuart; Dov Zakheim; Leah Joy Zell Copyright © 2016 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute One Dupont Circle, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Published in the United States of America in 2016 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-650-8 Wye Publication Number: 16/013 Cover design by: Steve Johnson Interior layout by: Sogand Sepassi aspen strategy group CHAIR EMERITUS MEMBERS Brent Scowcroft Madeleine K. Albright President Chair The Scowcroft Group, Inc. Albright Stonebridge Group Graham Allison CO-CHAIR Director Belfer Center for Science and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. International Affairs University Distinguished Service Professor John F. Kennedy School of Government John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Harvard University Zoë Baird CEO and President DIRECTOR Markle Foundation Nicholas Burns Stephen Biegun Goodman Family Professor of Diplomacy Vice President and International Relations Ford Motor Company John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Robert D. Blackwill Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy DEPUTY DIRECTOR Council on Foreign Relations Jonathon Price Kurt Campbell Deputy Director Chairman and CEO Aspen Strategy Group The Asia Group, LLC James E. Cartwright Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies ASPEN INSTITUTE PRESIDENT Center for Strategic and International Studies Walter Isaacson Eliot Cohen President and CEO Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies The Aspen Institute Johns Hopkins SAIS Richard Cooper John Hamre Maurits C. Boas Professor of President and CEO International Economics Center for Strategic and International Studies Harvard University Jane Harman Richard Danzig Director, President, and CEO Senior Advisor Woodrow Wilson International Center Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab for Scholars John Deutch David Ignatius Institute Professor Columnist and Associate Editor Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Washington Post Tom Donilon Nicholas Kristof Vice Chair Columnist O’Melveny & Myers The New York Times Richard A. Falkenrath Leo Mackay, Jr. Chief Security Officer Senior Vice President-Internal Audit, Bridgewater Associates Ethics and Sustainability Lockheed Martin Corporation Diana Farrell President and CEO Jessica Mathews JPMorgan Chase Institute Distinguished Fellow Carnegie Endowment for Peter Feaver International Peace Professor of Political Science and Public Policy Duke University David McCormick President Dianne Feinstein Bridgewater Associates United States Senator (D-CA) Sam Nunn Michèle Flournoy Co-Chairman and CEO CEO Nuclear Threat Initiative Center for a New American Security Meghan O’Sullivan Michael Green Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice Senior Vice President for Asia, CSIS of International Affairs and Director of the Associate Professor, Georgetown University Geopolitics of Energy Project John F. Kennedy School of Government Richard Haass Harvard University President Council on Foreign Relations William J. Perry Professor (Emeritus) Stephen Hadley Stanford University Former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush Tom Pritzker Smita Singh Executive Chairman Member Hyatt Hotels Corporation President’s Global Development Council Jack Reed Anne-Marie Slaughter United States Senator (D-RI) President and CEO Ranking Member of the Senate Armed New America Services Committee James B. Steinberg Mitchell B. Reiss Professor President and CEO Syracuse University The Colonial Williamsburg Foundation Strobe Talbott Condoleezza Rice President Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution Hoover Institution Dov S. Zakheim Carla Anne Robbins Senior Fellow Director of MIA Program and CNA Clinical Professor of National Security Studies School of Public and International Affairs, Philip Zelikow Baruch College/CUNY Professor University of Virginia David Sanger National Security Correspondent Robert B. Zoellick The New York Times Chairman Goldman Sachs International Advisors Susan Schwab Professor of Public Policy University of Maryland Acknowledgements Nicholas Burns Jonathon Price Director Deputy Director Aspen Strategy Group Aspen Strategy Group ust months before a new administration would step into the White House, the JAspen Strategy Group convened in Aspen, Colorado, to focus on reforming the U.S. government’s national security system to account for the myriad of challenges the United States will face in the coming years. This publication contains a collection of policy papers written by experts who served in many facets of the U.S. government and private sector, from trade and business to defense and national security. These experts guided our discussion in Aspen, highlighting a multitude of challenges and providing several recommendations for the U.S. government moving forward—which you can read in the following pages. Participants at the Strategy Group meeting included a bipartisan group of ASG members and invited guests, from current and former government officials to journalists and private sector leaders. The Aspen Strategy Group would not be able to convene such a group without the generous support of our partners. The organizations and individuals who invest in our mission enable us to convene an open and bipartisan dialogue on crucial topics in U.S. national security and foreign policy. We are enormously grateful to Mr. Robert Abernethy, McKinsey and Company, Mr. Howard Cox, Markle Foundation, Pritzker Family Foundation, Segal Family Foundation, Stanton Foundation, John Anson Kittredge Educational Fund, Mr. Simon Pinniger and Ms. Carolyne Roehm, Mr. Robert Rosenkranz and Dr. Alexandra Monroe, and Ms. Leah Joy Zell. To transform this collection of papers into the volume you now hold, we are indebted to Gayle Bennett, who proofread and edited this publication; Steve Johnson, who designed the cover, and Sogand Sepassi, who designed the interior layout. Our Brent Scowcroft Fellows—Daniel Ku, Calli Obern, and Carolina Ponzeto—spent many hours reviewing this manuscript to ensure its quality; we are grateful for their invaluable assistance and look forward to following their careers. Finally, we must recognize the end of an era. At our meeting this August, our longtime friend and co-chair, Brent Scowcroft, transitioned to chair emeritus. Brent 8 America’s National Security Architecture: Rebuilding the Foundation was present at the creation of this group and laid the foundation for all the work the Aspen Strategy Group continues to do. Beyond his well-known public service as national security advisor to two presidents, and his integral role in ending the Cold War peacefully and reshaping Europe, he is the epitome of a public servant. The ASG has been well served by Brent’s leadership and three-decade involvement, helping ASG foster bipartisan and frank dialogue on key issues facing the United States and the world. We are enormously grateful and privileged to have benefited from his tenure, and we look forward to welcoming him back to Aspen in his new role soon. Contents Preface ...................................................................13 Nicholas Burns and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Part 1 IDENTIFYING THE THREATS: HISTORY IN THE MAKING The Eighth Annual Ernest May Memorial Lecture.........................19 The Pearl Harbor System at 75 Douglas Stuart CHAPTER 1 Establish a White House Council of Historical Advisers Now . .39 Graham Allison and Niall Ferguson CHAPTER 2 Global Challenges 2017: What Are the Threats Ahead?...................53 John Sawers Part 2 A NEW SYSTEM FOR NEW CHALLENGES CHAPTER 3 Speculation on Economic/Political Consequences of a British Withdrawal from the EU ..........................................65 Leah Joy Zell CHAPTER 4 Government for a Digital Economy—In a Time of Deeply Intertwined Economic and National Security Imperatives .............................77 Zoë Baird CHAPTER 5 Reshaping National Security Institutions for Emerging Technology . .87 Christopher Kirchhoff Part 3 THE MACHINERY OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT CHAPTER 6 Reforming the National Security Council: Three Questions for the Next President ..................................99 Julianne Smith CHAPTER 7 Reforming the National Security Council: Policy Prescriptions and Recommendations..............................107 Stephen Hadley CHAPTER 8 Investing in Effective Organizational Dynamics at the National Security Council ...............................................125 Tom Pritzker CHAPTER 9 Present at the “Re-Creation”: The Role of the State Department in Formulating and Implementing U.S. Global Policy ....................135 James B. Steinberg CHAPTER 10 Rethinking the Architecture of U.S. National Security: Lessons from the Homeland .............................................147 Jane Holl Lute Part 4 MODERNIZING AMERICA’S NATIONAL SECURITY TOOLS CHAPTER 11 What Makes the Third Offset Strategy So Important? ...................159 James Cartwright CHAPTER 12 Prospects for the Third Offset Strategy ..................................165 Dov S. Zakheim CHAPTER 13 War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft America’s Geoeconomic Policy Deficit...................................177 Robert D. Blackwill
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