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The US-Moroccan-Israeli Tripartite Declaration: Incentives and Likely Outcomes

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The US-Moroccan-Israeli Tripartite Declaration: Incentives and Likely Outcomes Situation Assessement | 4 January 2021 The US-Moroccan-Israeli Tripartite Declaration: Incentives and Likely Outcomes Unit for Political Studies The US-MoMoocaS-Israele Tripartite Declaratio: Incentives andeLlkelyeOutcomes Series: Situation Assessement 4 January 2021 Unit for Political Studies The Unitfor Political Studies is thheCenter’Iedepartment dhdicated to the study of the region’Iemost pressing current cffairs.eAn integral andevital part of thheACRPU’ activities, it offers acadhmically rigorous analysis on issues that are relevant andeuseful to the pubelo, acadhmics and policySmckers of thheArab region andebhyond. The Unitfor Political Studlhedraws on the collaborative efforts of a number of scholars basedewithin and ourIlde thheACRPU. It produces rhree oferhheCenter’Ieiublication series:eAssessment Report,ePolicyeAnalysis, andeCase Analysis reports.e.e Copyrighre©e2021eArabeCenter for Research andePolicy Studies.eAll RlghrIeReservhd.eeeeee TheArabeCenter for Research andePolicy Studies is an independent research institute and thlak tankefor thhe studyeMfehistory and social sciences,ewith particular emihasis on the applied social sciences. TheCenter’s paramMunt concern is the advancement ofeArab societies and states, their cooperation withe one another and issues concerning thheArab nation in general. To that end, it seeks to excmine andediagnose rhe situation in thheArabeworld - states and communities- to analyze social, economic and cultural policies and to provlde political analysis,efrom an Arab perspectivh.e TheCenter publishes in botheArabic andeEaglish in order to mcke its work accessible to botheArab and non- Arab researchers.e TheArabeCenter for Research andePolicy Studies Al-Tarfa Street,eWcdleAeeBanat Al-Daycha,eQatar POeBMxe10277, Dohce +974e4035e4111 www.dMhainstitute.org The US-MoMoocaS-Israele Tripartite Declaratio: Incentives andeLlkelyeOutcomes Series: Situation Assessement Table of Contents 4 January 2021 Details . 1 Unit for Political Studies The Unitfor Political Studies is thheCenter’Iedepartment dhdicated to the study of the region’Iemost pressing current First:e UeRecognition of Moroccan SovereigntyeMvhoeWestern Sahara . 2 cffairs.eAn integral andevital part of thheACRPU’ activities, it offers acadhmically rigorous analysis on issues that are relevant andeuseful to the pubelo, acadhmics and policySmckers of thheArab region andebhyond. The Unitfor Political Second: Morocco’s position on Palestine andeJhousalem . 3 Studlhedraws on the collaborative efforts of a number of scholars basedewithin and ourIlde thheACRPU. It produces rhree oferhheCenter’Ieiublication series:eAssessment Report,ePolicyeAnalysis, andeCase Analysis reports.e.e Tlod: Scope oferhe Moroccan-Israeli Agreement . 3 Incentives oferhheParties to thheAgreement . 4 Copyrighre©e2021eArabeCenter for Research andePolicy Studies.eAll RlghrIeReservhd.eeeeee TheFurure oferhheAgreement . 4 TheArabeCenter for Research andePolicy Studies is an independent research institute and thlak tankefor thhe studyeMfehistory and social sciences,ewith particular emihasis on the applied social sciences. TheCenter’s paramMunt concern is the advancement ofeArab societies and states, their cooperation withe one another and issues concerning thheArab nation in general. To that end, it seeks to excmine andediagnose rhe situation in thheArabeworld - states and communities- to analyze social, economic and cultural policies and to provlde political analysis,efrom an Arab perspectivh.e TheCenter publishes in botheArabic andeEaglish in order to mcke its work accessible to botheArab and non- Arab researchers.e TheArabeCenter for Research andePolicy Studies Al-Tarfa Street,eWcdleAeeBanat Al-Daycha,eQatar POeBMxe10277, Dohce +974e4035e4111 www.dMhainstitute.org The US-MoMoocaS-Israele Tripartite Declaratio:eIncentives andeLlkelyeOutcomes Oae 22e hohmbhoe 2020,e ce joint declaration wcIe Ilgnede bhrwhhae -MoMooM,e rhhe alrhde UrcrhIe cade Israel in Rcbat,emcklag Morocco thhefMurtheArab country to announce the normalization of relations with Israel in as manyemonthI,efollowlag the UAE,eBchrain and Sudan. In return, Morocco obtainede recognition frome rhhe Murgoinge oumie cdmlalIrocrlMae Mfe “-MoMoocae IMvereigntye Mvhoe rhhe harlohe Western Sahara territory.” The US hus reaffiomhde“its support for Morocco’s seriouI, credlbeh, ande realistic autonomy proposal as the onlyebasis for a just and lasting solution to thhedispute over thhe Western Sahara territory”.”(1) Details Oae11 Decembhoe2020,ePresident Trump announced that Morocco and Israel hcd agreed to “normalizhe rhhloe ohecrlMaI”e cade ecrhoe ohIumhe full diplomcrloe ohecrlMaI.(2)e Eehvhae dcyIe ecrho,e rhhe fioIre -Iochele commhoolcee iecahe rMMke Mffe frome hee Avlve rMe Rcbat,e withe rwMe delegcrlMaIe Mae board.e Aae American delegation headhde bye oumi’Ie cdvlIMoe cade IMaSlaSecw,e Jarede KuIhner,e cade cae -Iochele delegation headhdeby the Israeli National SecurityeAdviser, Meir Ben Shcbbat. In thhefirst stagh, the two parties cgreed to reopen the two liaison offices in Rcbat and Tel Avlv,ewhlohewere opened in 1994 and closede at the ourbreak of the secondePalestinian uprising in late 2000.(3)eWhile Washlagton announced that it will open a consulate in the cityeMf Dakhla in thheWestern Sahara. In addition, Morocco and Israel signedefMuoemhmoranda ofeuaderstandlag. These incudhd agreements on civil aviation,ewater resources research andefuadlag, andevisa exhmptions for holders ofediplomatic passports.(4) Meanwhile, the United States and Morocco signed twMemhmoranda ofeuaderstandlage laewhloheWashlagton pledghd to invest three billion dollars in Morocco and the Sahara region.(5) The Trump administration has notifihdeCongress of its intention to sell Morocco drones and precision guldhdeweapons worthe$1ebillion.(6) AlthMugh Moroccan-Israeli relations were officiallyefrozen in late 2000, the two sides maintainede uadeclarede diplomcrloe oMarcorI.e Evhoye year,e bhrween 30e cade 50e rhMusande -Iochele rMurists visit Morocco.(7) In addition,ebilateral tradhebhrween the two countries has not stopped, and thhevolumhe 1 “Joint Declaration”,eThe UeEmbassy andeConsulates in Morocco,e22/12/2020, accessed on 29/12/2020 at:ehttps://mc.usembassy.gMv/joint-declaration/. 2 “President DonaldeJ. TrumieHas BrokeredePeace Bhrween Israel anderhheKlagdMmeMf Morocco,”eThe White House,e11/12/2020, accessed on 29/12/2020, at: https://bit.ey/37 Oy2J 3 JosepheKrauss,e“KuIhner Joins Israelis on LandmarkeVisit to Morocco,”eAP News,e22/12/2020, accessed on 29/12/2020, at:ehttps://bit.ey/3aWhC3m. 4 Judche Ari Gross,e “Israel,e -MoMooMe -ake hceI,e Agohhe rMe RhMihae -urual Liaison Offices Withlae WeekI,”e The Times of Israel,e 22/12/2020,e coohIIhde Mae 29/12/2020, at:ehttps://bit.ey/3cWFJrr. 5 AhmhdeEejechtiml,e“Morocco Hosts Israeli EavMyI,eKuIhner to FlesheOureNhweRelations,”eReuters,e22/12/2020, accessed on 29/12/2020, at: https://reur.rs/2W YWBKe. 6 Ben Samuels,e“FormhoeRhiublican Policymckers UrgheBlden to Rescind Trumi's Morocco Deal,”eHaaretz,e20/12/2020, accessed on 29/12/2020, at: https://bit.ey/3o-7fOl 7 Krauss. 1 Situation Assessement | 4 January 2021 Mfebilateral tradhefrome2014eSe2017 amMunted to approxlmatelye$149emillion.eJhws of Moroccan origlae ohiohIhare cbMure 12%e Mfe rhhe iMiuecrlMae Mfe -Iochee (700,000),e whlehe cbMure 3,000e JhwIe ohmainede lae Morocco followlag their exMdus to occupiedePalestine upon the establishment of the State of Israel lae1948.(8) Morocco was keen to express its position in support of the two-state solution, althMugh the tripartite joint declaration does not mention a “Palestinian state.” Thejoint declaration can bhedlvldhd into three parts: the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty ovhoeWestern Sahara, thhegeneral Moroccan position on Palestine andeJhousalem, anderhheMbelgations of Morocco and Israel accordlag to thhecgreement. First: US Recognition of Moroccan Sovereignty over Western Sahara The annuncement statederhhefollowlag: 1.e “The Unitd States affiomI, as statedeby prevlMuIeAdministrations, its support for Morocco’Ie cutonomy proposal as the onlyebasis for a just and lasting solution to thhedispute over thhe WhIrhoae Uchcoce rhoolrMoy. Therefore,e cIe Mfe rMdcy,e rhhe alrhde UrcrhIe ohoMgnizhIe -MoMoocae sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory and reaffioms its support for Morocco’Ie seriouI,e oohdlbeh,e cade ohcelIrloe cutonomye ioMiMIcee cIe rhhe Maeye basis fMoe ce juIre cade ecIrlage solution to thhedispute ovhoerhheWestern Sahara territory.” 2.e “To facilitate progress toward this aim, the United States will encourage economic and social dhvelopment with Morocco, includlag in thheWestern Sahara territory, and to that endewill open a consulate in thheWestern Sahara territory, in Dakhla, to promote economic andebusiness opportunities for the region.” President Trumi’s statement on 11 Decembhoecddhderhhefollowlag: 1.e “Morocco is one of the oldest and closest allies of the United States and evhoyeAdministration since President Clinton has affiomhd its support for Morocco’Iecutonomy proposal.” 2.e “Presidhare oumie uoghIe ceee icorlhIe rMe oMaIrouctivelye hagcghe withe rhhe alrhde NcrlMaIe cade consider creative andeghauine wcys to mMvherhe peace process forward.” 3.e “This recogalrlMae ehcvhIe oMMme fMoe ce ahgotiatede IMeurlMae cade rhhe alrhde UrcrhIe ohmains committede rMe worklage withe -MoMooM,e rhhe Polisario,e cade ceee lavolvhde ohglMacee cade international actors to support the necessaryework ahead and create a more peaceful ande prosperous region.”(9) 8 Gross.
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