Globalisation, the West Midlands Auto Cluster, and the End of MG Rover
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Bailey, Kobayashi and MacNeill final author version for Policy Studies Rover and Out? Globalisation, the West Midlands Auto Cluster, and the end of MG Rover David Bailey, Seiji Kobayashi and Stewart MacNeill1 ABSTRACT This paper sets the scene for this Policy Studies special issue on plant closures by outlining the form of the auto cluster in the West Midlands, the nature of structural changes unfolding in the industry, and the decline and eventual collapse of MG Rover (MGR). Structural changes highlighted include: greater pressure on firms to recover costs when technological change has been intensifying, driving up the costs of new model development; increased international sourcing of modular components; and a shift of final assembly operations towards lower cost locations. All of these make maintaining mature clusters such as the West Midlands more challenging for firms and policy makers. The paper then looks a ‘what went wrong’ at MGR. Given long run problems at the firm and its inability to recover costs, BMW’s sale of the firm in 2000 left MGR virtually dead on its feet, and by 2002/3 it was clear to many that the firm was running out of time. Whilst recognising that the firm’s demise was ultimately a long-term failure of management, the paper also looks at other contributing factors, including government policy mistakes over the years, such as the misguided ‘national champions’ approach in the 1950s and 1960s, a failure to integrate activities under nationalisation in the 1970s, a mistaken privatisation to British Aerospace in the 1980s, and a downside of competition policy in ‘allowing’ the sale to a largely inappropriate owner in BMW in the 1990s. The considerable volatility of sterling in recent years hastened the firm’s eventual demise. Keywords: Automotive industry; Globalisation; West Midlands; MG Rover; Industrial Policy. 1. INTRODUCTION The structural changes and shifts unfolding in the auto industry have been vividly illustrated through recent events in the West Midlands. These have included the collapse of MG Rover in 2005 and closures of Jaguar’s Brown’s Lane plant in Coventry and Peugeot’s Ryton plant. Add in continuing uncertainty over the future of the Jaguar and Land Rover plants given (at the time of writing) Ford’s attempt to sell- off the brands owing to ongoing losses at Jaguar, and fears over a ‘meltdown’ of assembly activity in the region seem justified. These events have also highlighted the difficulties involved in supporting and developing the auto ‘cluster’ in the region. This paper explores the background to the MG Rover (MGR) collapse and sets the scene for this special issue. In section 2 it outlines the form of the auto cluster in the West Midlands, putting this into broader context by examining structural changes in the industry. These include: greater pressure on firms to recover costs when technological change has been intensifying, driving up the costs of new model development; increasingly global sourcing; and the growth of assembly operations in lower cost locations in South and Eastern Europe. All of these make maintaining the West Midlands cluster both more necessary and yet also more difficult for policy makers. 1 Bailey, Kobayashi and MacNeill final author version for Policy Studies The paper then looks a ‘what went wrong’ at MGR, agreeing with the analysis of Holweg and Oliver (2005) which stressed long term problems, the ‘cycle of doom’ at the firm and its inability to recover costs for new model development. Given this position, BMW’s sale of the firm in 2000 left MGR in an unsustainable position, with only a very limited time horizon in which to find an investment partner. Indeed, by 2002/3 it was clear that the firm was running out of time. The paper goes further, however, and examines wider environmental factors contributing to the demise of MGR, in particular government policy mistakes over the years, including a misguided ‘national champions’ approach involving forced mergers in the 1950s and 1960s, a failure to integrate activities under nationalisation in the 1970s, a mistaken privatisation to British Aerospace in the 1980s, and a clear downside of competition policy which resulted in the sale to an inappropriate owner in BMW in the 1990s. Add in the considerable volatility of sterling in recent years, and the firm’s eventual demise came as no surprise to many analysts. 2. THE WEST MIDLANDS AUTO ‘CLUSTER’ IN A RESTRUCTURING GLOBAL INDUSTRY Shifts in the Global Auto Industry In the course of its history the auto industry has arguably undergone radical changes described as three “revolutions” by Womack et al (1990), the first two being the introduction of assembly line production by Ford and so-called ‘lean production’ by Toyota.2 In the past four decades, further radical changes have affected the entire value chain, from manufacturers and suppliers to service providers and dealers (Chanaron 2004, MacNeill and Chanaron 2005)3 and, since the mid-1990s, a ‘third revolution’ has focused on change through flexibility, with consequent affects on product creation, production and life cycle. The main drivers of this development are the pressures of cost recovery which, together with intense competition, has led car-makers to seek economies of scale by increasing production volumes, standardising platforms and components and outsourcing ‘non-core’ activities. In addition, increasing regulatory pressures and consumer demands for quality and capability have led to the development of new technologies for more efficient powertrains, reduced weight, hybrid/electric vehicles and bio-fuels, as well as high value electrical, electronic and communications componentry. Finally, market pressures have led to the growth of new segments, such as minivans or small ‘city’ cars, and the need to offer increasing numbers of radical variations whilst still maintaining common ‘under-skin’ platforms. One result of these developments is too much overall assembly capacity, with around 25% under-utilisation in Western Europe and more than 30% in the developing markets of Central and Eastern Europe. Thus the weakest firms are under intense pressure and although MGR was the first to go under others have also struggled. For example, Fiat was in such difficulties that GM paid $1.5 billion in a divorce settlement in 2005 (although new model launches have since helped the company). More recently Peugeot Citroen has seen disappointing sales and declining profits such that in late 2007 the company announced 8,000 job cuts across Europe. A second outcome has been the rising costs of new model development. In contrast with what is expected under the ‘life cycle’ model of industry development, the ‘crisis of cost recovery’ facing firms has intensified over time. In today’s prices, the cost of getting a 2 Bailey, Kobayashi and MacNeill final author version for Policy Studies genuinely new model to market lies somewhere between £400 million and £1 billion. As a result, large scale production over different models and brands using a platform sharing approach is vital to generate the cash for future model development, yet at the same time carries with it the risk of diluting brand image, as evidenced by Jaguar’s problems with X-type model, which shared the same platform with the Ford Mondeo and Mazda 6.4 Simultaneously, major manufacturers are developing assembly operations in low cost locations in emerging markets such as central/eastern Europe, or the southern states of the US. Indeed, as well as declining profitability, a key factor in the recent decision by Peugeot-Citroën to close its Ryton plant near Coventry with 2,300 immediate job losses was the opening of a new plant in Slovakia where labour costs are around one quarter those in Britain. Once the decision was taken to expand capacity in Eastern Europe, Ryton was particularly exposed for a number of reasons. Firstly, it was a small plant assembling only the Peugeot 206 from parts brought in from France and secondly cutting each job in France would have been up to three times as expensive. (Bailey and Cowling, 2006). The UK’s flexible labour markets make it as easy to destroy jobs as to create them and the lack of significant domestically-owned manufacturing means that activities in Britain are exposed when transnationals look to cut auto assembly capacity. Restructuring at a Local Level With the collapse of MG Rover, and the closure of the Ryton plant, volume assembly in the region has in effect ended. Remaining activity is high-value luxury branded niche-production under the current control of Ford, notably Land Rover and Jaguar in Birmingham/Solihull, with smaller scale production by a newly-independent Aston Martin at Gaydon and at a range of other less known but still significant producers such as LDV Vans (commercial vehicles), Morgan and Westfield (sports cars) and Carbodies (taxis). However, much of the ‘old’ high volume supply matrix still remains with manufacturing concentrated in the main conurbations. With losses of over $12 billion in 2006, Ford announced in 2007 its intention to sell Jaguar and Land Rover, prompting fears about further capacity cuts and the future of 17,000 Jaguar and Land Rover jobs if a private equity firm acquires them (although at the time of writing, the Indian firm Tata seems the most likely buyer). Meanwhile, Nanjing Auto has plans to re-start small-scale MG sports car assembly at Longbridge in late 2007 with complete ´knock-down’ kits shipped in from China (although eventual production volumes are uncertain). Longer term there is much scepticism over Nanjing’s ability to develop new models and their commitment to production in the West Midlands, especially given plans to produce and develop models in Oklahoma. However, the takeover in late 2007 of Nanjing by the larger state-owned Chinese firm Shanghai may offer more hope in this regard, given Shanghai’s much larger size and its commitment to R&D activities in the region through its joint venture with Ricardo.