Political Foreign Economic Relations State and Private Sector Development system (FDI, Trade, ODA)
1997-2010: Controlled an command market economy Market- oriented • Liberalization of some System import restrictions and under permission of imports of Military Rule, previously restricted items SLORC/SPDC such as cars, motorcycles (1988-2010) and diesel.
• Minimum Wage Law (2013) • Promoting international − 3600 Kyat for an 8-hour workday trade and facilitating exports Transition to and imports. • Focused on production of value-added Market products from primary goods to increase • Foreign Investment Law Economy value-added in export. (2012) - 100% foreign under ownership; the right to • Initiated telecom sector reform in 2012 Quasi-Civilian lease land for 50 years, with and 2013. Government a 25-year renewable period. (2011-2015) • Established one-stop-service in Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw in 2013 for registration/ establishment of businesses.
Source: Adapted and compiled from Than (2006), Soe (2008), Thein (2009), Kudo (2010), Myanmar Legal Service (2016) and Kyaw & Lwin (2016).
5.2.5. NLD Government’s Industrial Sector Development Plan
The draft Second Five-Year Plan (2016/17-2020/21) of the twenty-year National Comprehensive Development Plan (2011/12-2030/31) was published in December 2015. Myanmar aims to achieve per capita GDP of USD 3,000 by 2030/31. The theme of the Second Five-Year Plan is “industrial development by strong economy and investment”, and it also highlighted the government’s plan to strengthen the agricultural sector for not only productivity but also for food security in the country.
(1) basic infrastructural development; (2) electricity supply; (3) transportation; (4) communication; (5) industrial zones, special economic zones and border area zones; (6) economic corridor and border trade zones;
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 085 (7) enabling environment for businesses; (8) human resource development; (9) research and development.
Based on the Myanmar Industrial Development Vision, the Ministry of Industry issued Industrial Policy in February 2016 before the NLD-led government officially assumed power in March. The policy identifies key industrial sectors: electrical power; petroleum and natural gas; manufacturing; mining; hotel and tourism; livestock and fisheries; transport and communication, and industrial zones. Two strategic geographical areas have been selected for industrial development. Yangon, Bago and related areas in the South which connect to the seaport and, Mandalay, Sagaing and related areas in the Central Myanmar which is located on economic corridors, particularly the ASEAN Highway.
The policy addresses 11 current challenges in industrial sector including high price of raw materials and production cost; inadequate electricity and energy supply; inadequate transportation; lack of skilled labor and high price of land for industrial purposes. Prioritized industries to establish in the short-term are: labor- intensive industries such as garment factories, wood-based furniture and finished manufacturing; primary commodity industries such as value-added food processing; production of agricultural products and fishery products. In the medium-term, the policy focuses on technological know-how manufacturing such as textile and garment dying and paining industry; automobile parts manufacturing industry; ship building and related industry. For the long-term, the government prioritizes advanced-technical-based industries such as nanotechnology-based pharmaceutical industry; advanced ICT accessories manufacturing industry as well as infrastructure industries such as cement industry; electric power industry; transport and tourism industry will be focused.
On 24 October 2016, the NLD government formed the Private Sector Development Committee that is chaired by the Vice President with 18 members. Five working committees were formed in order to carry out improvement of laws, rules and regulations, financial sector, trade and investment, reform of state-owned economic enterprises, and capacity building for human resource development (The President Office, 2016).
Apart from the development of industrial zones, the NLD government aims to reform state-owned economic enterprises. As much as 60% of the government revenue is financed by SEEs, but the financial accounts of these SEEs are not transparent. After contributing 45% of net profits into the State Fund Account and paying for raw material costs, each SEE is allowed to retain the rest of its revenues in company-specific “Other Accounts”. The Myanmar Extractive Industry Transparency
086 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 087 Initiative (MEITI) reported that Myanmar Oil and Gas deposited more than USD 1.4 billion into its Other Accounts in 2013/14 (Myanmar Times, 2016).
5.3. Policy Challenges
As the historical experience of advanced industrial countries shows in Section 2, the institutional, intellectual, and economic foundational conditions were essential for the Industrial Revolution. In addition, Western latecomers supported their infant industries and built up soft and hard infrastructure in transportation, trade and competition, education and R&D, and finance to integrate their national market and generate dynamic efficiency gains. On top of these factors, non-Western latecomers used more proactive industrial and trade policy to make up for their shortcomings.
Myanmar should formulate an effective catch-up strategy based on these lessons and Myanmar’s own local conditions. Myanmar’s strategic geographical location between China and South Asia is a great asset. In addition to Myanmar’s rich natural resources, the country’s youthful and literate workforce, available at relatively cheap wages, is attractive to investors. Despite its potential, however, the industrial sector of Myanmar is underdeveloped. As the history of Myanmar’s industrial policy shows, industrialization in Myanmar was dominated by ideas and philosophies closely associated with socialism and economic nationalism for four decades, after the independence from the British in 1948 up to the end of Burmese Way to Socialism in 1988. Building on the success of the initial reform program focused on political and economic liberalization, Myanmar should promote structural transformation and capacity development while enhancing social cohesion.
As the catch-up experiences of Korea and Vietnam suggest, Myanmar can initially focus on labor-intensive agriculture and manufacturing and then move into more sophisticated sectors as its capabilities are developed. Much as in agriculture, Myanmar should identify and support manufacturing firms that can expand and integrate the value chain in industry. For these firms to want to stay in Myanmar and serve as drivers for industrial upgrading, Myanmar should continue to enhance its education, infrastructure, and institutional quality. Myanmar should link human capital and infrastructure development with industrial development in an integrated manner and improve its market environment to participate in global production networks.
5.3.1. Education, Infrastructure, and Institutional Quality
According to the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) 2015-2016 by the World Economic Forum, Myanmar’s overall rank is 131 out of 140 countries, with a
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 087 composite score of 3.3 out of 7. Among the 12 pillars or components that make up the GCI, Myanmar’s score was higher than 4.0 in: macroeconomic environment (4.2), health and primary education (4.6), labor market efficiency (4.2), and market size (4.2). In particular, in labor market efficiency and market size, Myanmar’s score was similar to the average score of emerging and developing Asia. However, in health and primary education, it was below the average score of emerging and developing Asia, although Myanmar’s score was better than the average of low-income countries. To take a specific example, Myanmar (93.1%) has a higher literacy rate than Laos (79.9%), Cambodia (77.2%), India (71.2%), and Bangladesh (61.5%); however, it trails Thailand (96.7%), Vietnam (94.5%), Malaysia (94.6%), and Indonesia (93.9%).
[Figure 1-17] Myanmar’s GCI Pillar Score, Compared with Emerging and Developing Asia (2015-16)
Source: World Economic Forum (2015).
Among the 12 pillars or components that make up the GCI, Myanmar’s score was lower than 3.0 in: institutions (2.9), infrastructure (2.1), higher education and training (2.5), financial market development (2.4), technological readiness (2.2), business sophistication (2.9), and innovation (2.5). While less developed countries generally have a low score in these pillars, Myanmar’s score was well below the average score of emerging and developing Asia in infrastructure, higher education and learning, financial market development, and technological readiness. These pillars are closely associated with the soft and hard infrastructure that western latecomers had emphasized in their own economic development.
088 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 089 The World Bank’s Doing Business (DB) indicators provide a closer look at the quality of institutions directly associated with conducting business. Myanmar’s overall DB rank is 170 out of 190 countries in 2017. Since a number of countries are bunched up together, with a small difference in performance resulting in a large difference in rank, what may be more relevant the country’s rank is its distance to frontier (DTF), which measures “how far the country has progressed relative to some absolute standard for the frontier”. Myanmar’s overall DTF in 2017 is 44.56, with 100 being the best. Its DTF in areas such as starting a business and dealing with construction permits is above 70. In particular, Myanmar recently made good progress in the area of starting a business, with its DTF rising from 66.57 in 2016 to 77.10 in 2017. By comparison, Myanmar’s DTF in getting electricity, registering property, and trading across borders is hovering around 50. Finally, Myanmar’s DTF in getting credit, enforcing contracts, and resolving insolvency is well below 30.
Myanmar’s Doing Business Rank and Distance to Frontier (2017)DB 2017 DB 2016 DB 2017 DTF DB 2016 DTF Rank Rank (% points) (% points)
Overall 170 171 44.56 44.01
Starting a Business 146 170 77.10 66.57
Dealing with Construction 66 72 72.23 71.03 Permits
Getting Electricity 149 150 52.17 50.92
Registering Property 143 145 49.37 49.32
Getting Credit 175 174 10.00 10.00
Protecting Minority Investors 179 181 28.33 28.33
Paying Taxes 119 117 64.05 63.95
Trading across Borders 159 149 47.40 55.05
Enforcing Contracts 188 188 24.53 24.53
Resolving Insolvency 164 163 20.39 20.39
Source: Doing Business (http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/myanmar), World Bank (2017).
Of course, less developed countries have less developed soft and hard infrastructure; otherwise, they would not be less developed countries. The question is how to build up soft and hard infrastructure given limited financial resources. The key is to coordinate soft and hard infrastructure development with industrial
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 089 development in an integrated manner so that they would help pay for themselves.35) In other words, industries that benefit from better infrastructure should be able to generate enough return to help cover the infrastructure cost. For this, education and training programs have to be effectively matched with labor demand in such a way as to facilitate industrial upgrading. Likewise, transportation, energy, and communications infrastructure should promote industrial development, which in turn helps to finance the construction and operation cost. As for the quality of institutions, it would be important to adhere to the principle of performance-based rewards and to conduct a systematic public-private consultation to identify problems and come up with solutions.
5.3.2. International Trade
Myanmar has made remarkable progress in international trade policy since 2013. Not only has Myanmar successfully negotiated for the reinstatement of GSP benefits with the EU (2013) and the U.S. (2016), it has formulated a comprehensive strategy to promote exports. The policy challenge for the future is to go beyond facilitating agricultural and resource exports and develop manufacturing exports as part of an integrated structural transformation strategy.
Myanmar started working on its National Export Strategy (NES) in 2013, consulting with various stakeholders. With support from the International Trade Center (ITC), the government rolled out the NES in 2015 with an objective to triple exports in five years. NES identified seven priority sectors and four cross-sector functions (support areas).
The seven priority sectors for goods and services are: (1) rice, (2) pulses & beans and oil seed crops, (3) fishery, (4) textile and garments, (5) wood-based products, (6) rubber, and (7) tourism. Since the rollout of the NES, gems and jewelry and agro- processing have been added to promising sectors, based on KOTRA’s Myantrade master plan. Fruit and vegetables, coffee, and ICT may be added later. Overall, the identified priority sectors closely reflect Myanmar’s current top export items (except for natural gas). There should be more emphasis placed on manufacturing products, such as footwear and electronics, in addition to textile and garments, given their positive long-term effect on structural transformation.
The four cross-sector functions are: (1) access to finance, (2) trade information and promotion, (3) quality management, and (4) trade facilitation and logistics. They address key deficits in Myanmar’s trade capacity.
35) Also, the government may have to come up with creative financing solutions. For instance, in lieu of making cash payments, the U.S. made federal land grants to railway companies that undertook the construction of trans-continental railways.
090 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 091 The government set up a committee for each priority sector. Sectoral Committees include relevant line Ministries as well as the Ministry of Commerce. At the sectoral level, a meeting is held at least once every two months, with working groups meeting more frequently. At the national level, a meeting is held at least once every six months. The secretariat office is in Nay Pyi Taw, and the implementation management unit is in Yangon. Strategic Implementation Management Tool (SIMT) developed by ITC provides information on the progress of NES.
Key performance indicators are activity-based, not outcome-based. Activities include quality management and trade facilitation. Since exports are difficult to project, the government has stayed away from outcome-based targets. However, export targets provide benchmarks against which progress can be monitored. Without outcome-based targets using SMART indicators, strategies may just become ill-defined aspirations to do better. The targets do not have to be rigorously derived, but need to be based on public-private consultation.36) It is interesting to note that the Garment Association and the Rice Association have set their own export targets, as a way of setting benchmarks for their members. The government should strengthen its public-private consultation and feedback mechanism not only to set informed targets but formulate solutions to emerging problems.37)
For next several years, in addition to the extractive sector (e.g., natural gas and gems), labor-intensive agriculture and manufacturing represent the promising export sectors. As in the case of Vietnam, while the extractive sector may be able to serve as a good revenue source for some time, the extractive activity cannot help Myanmar to develop the kind of capacity and skill that would prove useful in producing a more sustainable source of income for the long run. The government should link trade development with industrial and human resource development in an integrated manner.
5.3.3. Industrial Zones and SEZs
Industrial zones and SEZs try to create agglomeration economies by concentrating scarce resources in particular areas. The construction of industrial zones and SEZs not only facilitates the clustering of related companies, but also makes it easy for the government to provide centralized support of infrastructure and administrative services. Industrial zones and SEZs can also serve as a testbed for institutional reform when it is not feasible to introduce the reform on a nationwide scale.
36) When Korea was setting up its Five-Year Electronics Industry Promotion Plan in 1966, for instance, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry asked 21 exporting firms how much they could export over the next five years and set the export targets based on this information. 37) A good example in this regard is Korea’s monthly export promotion meetings.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 091 Myanmar has invoked these rationales to set up industrial zones. However, most of the industrial zones in Myanmar suffer from many vacant plots and a low operation rate. There are 37,076 plots in industrial zones; 7,194 are empty (2,345 in Yangon Region, 1,464 in Shan State and 1,381 in Mandalay Region) (Frontier Myanmar, 2016). According to the Human Settlement and Housing Department, there are 55,000 enterprises in 16 registered industrial areas in Yangon Region, but only about 3,200 enterprises are in operation.
There are primarily two reasons for this low operation rate. First, in many cases, industrial zones are used as policy tools to address regional underdevelopment. A top priority for private-sector enterprises is land, but land in underdeveloped regions may not be commercially viable. Incentives the government provides do not match up well with what the private sector needs or wants. Second, in other cases, industrial zones are set up in potential urban centers, and firms may feel that land in these areas can be more profitably deployed for commercial or residential use rather than industrial use. Expected increases in land prices drive land speculation, resulting in a low operation rate in these industrial zones (GIZ and MDRI-CESD, 2014). Although the Thein Sein government tried to solve the latter problem in 2014 by asking all land owners to submit business development plans, it was unsuccessful. In May 2016, the Yangon Region government formed an inspection team to conduct industrial zone assessments in Yangon region (Myanmar Times, 2016).
These developments suggest that Myanmar should set up industrial zones (and, on a much larger scale, SEZs as well) in reasonably commercially viable areas, but not in hopelessly underdeveloped regions nor in potential urban centers where land could be more profitably deployed for commercial or residential use. In early stages of development, when resources are quite limited, it would make sense to set up industrial zones and SEZs in reasonably commercially viable areas where firms have relatively good access to labor, infrastructure, and supporting industries as well as market-friendly rules and regulations. It would be also important to establish linkages between these zones and the rest of the national economy so as to prevent the emergence of a dualistic structure. Once these industrial zones and SEZs have generated a sufficient amount of value added, some of it could be used to address regional underdevelopment, as demonstrated by China’s experience with SEZs in coastal areas and subsequent development of the inland regions.
6. Conclusion
Myanmar has undertaken remarkable political and economic reforms since 2010, breaking away from nearly five decades of military rule and international isolation. Thanks to these reform efforts and favorable domestic and international conditions,
092 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 093 Myanmar was the second fastest-growing economy (after Laos) among ASEAN countries, with its GDP growth rate averaging 7.3% during 2011-2015. Building on the success of the initial reform program focused on political and economic liberalization, Myanmar is trying to sustain its growth by promoting structural transformation and capacity development while enhancing social cohesion.
Myanmar’s strategic geographical location between China and South Asia is a great asset. In addition to Myanmar’s rich natural resources and fertile land, the country’s youthful and literate workforce, available at relatively cheap wages, is attractive to investors. The reinstatement of GSP benefits with the EU (2013) and the U.S. (2016) serves as an additional merit.
However, a number of problems constrain Myanmar’s competitiveness. In particular, Myanmar’s global competitiveness score is well below the average score of emerging and developing Asia in infrastructure, higher education and learning, financial market development, and technological readiness. With regard to institutions associated with doing business, Myanmar’s score is especially low in getting credit, enforcing contracts, and resolving insolvency. Myanmar should formulate an effective strategy to address these problems and achieve self-sustaining socioeconomic development.
As the historical experience of advanced industrial countries shows, the institutional, intellectual, and economic conditions were essential for the Industrial Revolution: (1) institutional conditions that provided protection for private property and performance-based rewards with an increasing emphasis on the equality of opportunity; (2) the systematic accumulation and application of knowledge, starting with the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment; and (3) endowments, factor prices, and incentives that were used to facilitate structural transformation. In addition, Western latecomers supported their infant industries and built up soft and hard infrastructure in transportation, trade and competition, education and R&D, and finance to integrate their national market and generate dynamic efficiency gains. On top of these factors, non-Western latecomers used more proactive industrial and trade policy to make up for their shortcomings.
A concurrent and integrated development of agriculture and industry, facilitated by international trade, is the strategy that worked effectively in catch-up economies such as Japan, Korea, China after 1978, and Vietnam after 1986. Leapfrogging is not realistic if a country has yet to build capabilities and skills required for sophisticated sectors. Besides, in the early stages of development, a country needs labor- intensive agriculture and industries to create jobs and provide opportunities to gain experience in industrialization. In particular, as the catch-up experiences of Korea and Vietnam suggest, Myanmar can initially focus on labor-intensive agriculture and manufacturing and then move into more sophisticated sectors as its capabilities
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 093 are developed. The gap between the employment share (70%) and value-added share (30%) of agriculture in Myanmar suggests a great potential for the joint development strategy. Myanmar should address challenges in agriculture and industry and strengthen linkages between the two sectors to promote their joint development.
In agriculture and industry alike, Myanmar should identify and support firms that can expand and integrate the value chain. Firms familiar with this task can identify and fix weak links in Myanmar’s agricultural and industrial production, processing, and marketing. They can show what must be done to raise productivity, improve quality, and appeal to consumers both at home and abroad in an integrated manner.
For these firms to want to stay in Myanmar and serve as drivers for structural transformation, Myanmar should continue to enhance its education, infrastructure, and institutional quality. Myanmar should link human capital and infrastructure development with agricultural and industrial development in an integrated manner and improve its market environment to participate in global production networks.
In education, Myanmar has done relatively well at the primary level. In fact, Myanmar (93.1%) has a higher literacy rate than Laos (79.9%), Cambodia (77.2%), India (71.2%), and Bangladesh (61.5%), even though it trails Thailand (96.7%), Vietnam (94.5%), Malaysia (94.6%), and Indonesia (93.9%). However, to develop capabilities essential for industrial upgrading, Myanmar should improve its higher education and training. For this, education and training programs must be effectively matched with labor demand so as to facilitate industrial development (see Chapter 3).
In infrastructure, Myanmar faces serious deficits in electric power, communication, and transportation. The question is how to build up infrastructure given limited financial resources. The key is to coordinate infrastructure development with industrial development in an integrated manner so that industries that benefit from better infrastructure will generate enough return to help cover the infrastructure cost.
In institutional quality, Myanmar has made good progress in recent years in some areas such as regulations on starting a business; however, it continues to face problems in other areas such as enforcing contracts. To improve the quality of institutions, it is important to adhere to the principle of performance-based rewards and to conduct a systematic public-private consultation to identify problems and come up with solutions.
In addition to these common issues, agriculture and industry respectively have some sector-specific problems. Myanmar should address these problems while not losing sight of the joint development approach.
094 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 095 Myanmar’s low labor and land productivity in the agricultural sector are due to the inadequate provision of agricultural infrastructure and key inputs, as well as the negative incentive effect generated by weak land rights and remaining restrictions on crop choice, marketing, and pricing. Given Myanmar’s limited financial resources, it cannot, and should not, address these challenges all at once; rather, it should first focus on institutional reforms to enhance farmers’ incentives and build up the agricultural value chain, and then move on to large-scale projects and programs as greater financial resources and capabilities become available. To generate truly people-centered development, Myanmar should promote small farmers, raise various crops in addition to rice, and focus on providing cost-effective agricultural inputs, not just machinery.
First and foremost, Myanmar should consider politically viable measures to provide agricultural land to farmers and strengthen their land rights. Myanmar should establish secure land rights and restrict the state’s eminent domain power to cases where there is a clear public interest justification and a fair compensation. To establish secure land rights, the state can sell (or distribute) land and transfer ownership rights outright or grant land use rights for a period long enough to justify making efforts to improve land productivity (for example, 50 years). One option is to adopt a land reform program with a strict limit on land ownership (e.g., 3 hectares per farming household, as in Japan and Korea after World War II), in which farmers purchase land from the government by making in-kind installment payments (e.g., 30% of average annual crop each year for 5 years) and large land owners are provided a fair compensation for selling their excess land to the government. Another option is to provide state-owned underdeveloped land to farmers who improve it, somewhat like the Homestead Act of the United States. Since Myanmar is a land-abundant country, with approximately one-third of its arable land not under cultivation, it may make sense to encourage farmers to develop new land rather than redistribute existing land. Care must be taken to make sure that valuable water resources or minerals are not unduly privatized in this case.
In addition, Myanmar should further relax government restrictions on crop choice, marketing, and pricing, while making necessary policy adjustments for food security and social cohesion. The dramatic increase in the production and export of pulses and beans since the late 1980s demonstrates the positive impact of liberalizing crop choice, marketing, and pricing. Although the government’s concern about food security and social cohesion is understandable, setting the domestic price well below the world price and restricting exports discourages production and creates a distortion in resource allocation. Instead, the government should liberalize crop choice, marketing, and pricing, collect an income tax from producers, and then provide an income subsidy to the poor. If administrative capabilities to collect taxes and provide subsidies are limited, the government could impose an export tax and
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 095 regulate the domestic price at such a level so that producers would still have an adequate incentive to produce/export and consumers would enjoy a discount.
Secure land tenure and more market-based transactions should have a positive incentive effect on agricultural production, and Myanmar should make full use of this incentive effect, especially when its financial resources are limited to carry out large-scale projects and programs. As for agricultural infrastructure as well as key inputs, Myanmar should set priorities and focus on cost-effective measures that are likely to deliver substantive early results. For example, to maximize overall agricultural productivity for the same amount of money, it would make more sense to supply fertilizers than set up a small number of mechanized model farms. The government should exercise similar pragmatism in providing agricultural R&D and extension services.
As for industry, as the history of Myanmar’s industrial policy shows, Myanmar was dominated by ideas and philosophies closely associated with socialism and economic nationalism for four decades, after the independence from the British in 1948 up to the end of Burmese Way to Socialism in 1988. Building on the success of the initial reform program focused on political and economic liberalization, Myanmar should promote structural transformation and capacity development by strategically using international trade and industrial zones and SEZs.
Myanmar has made remarkable progress in international trade policy since 2013. Not only has Myanmar successfully negotiated for the reinstatement of GSP benefits with the EU (2013) and the U.S. (2016), it has formulated the National Export Strategy (2015) to triple exports in five years. The policy challenge for the future is to go beyond facilitating agricultural and resource exports and develop manufacturing exports as part of an integrated structural transformation strategy. For next several years, in addition to the extractive sector (e.g., natural gas and gems), labor-intensive agriculture and manufacturing represent the promising export sectors for Myanmar. As in the case of Vietnam, while the extractive sector may be able to serve as a good revenue source for some time, the extractive activity cannot help Myanmar to develop the kind of capacity and skill that would prove useful in producing a more sustainable source of income for the long run. There should be more emphasis placed on manufacturing products, such as footwear and electronics, in addition to textiles and garments, given their positive effect on structural transformation. The government should link trade development with industrial and human resource development in an integrated manner.
Key performance indicators for the National Export Strategy are activity-based, not outcome-based. Although the government has stayed away from outcome-based targets because exports are difficult to project, export targets provide benchmarks
096 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 097 against which progress can be monitored. The government should strengthen its public-private consultation and feedback mechanism not only to set informed targets but formulate solutions to emerging problems.
Although Myanmar has set up a number of industrial zones and SEZs to take advantage of agglomeration economies and spearhead reform, they suffer from vacancies and a low operation rate. Myanmar should set up industrial zones (and, on a much larger scale, SEZs as well) in reasonably commercially viable areas, but not in hopelessly underdeveloped regions nor in potential urban centers where land could be more profitably deployed for commercial or residential use. In early stages of development, when resources are quite limited, it would make sense to set up industrial zones and SEZs in reasonably commercially viable areas where firms have relatively good access to labor, infrastructure, and supporting industries as well as market-friendly rules and regulations. It would be also important to establish linkages between these zones and the rest of the national economy so as to prevent the emergence of a dualistic structure. Once these industrial zones and SEZs have generated a sufficient amount of value added, some of it could be used to address regional underdevelopment, as demonstrated by China’s experience with SEZs in coastal areas and subsequent development of the inland regions.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy for Myanmar • 097 References
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Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 099 Min, A., & Kudo, T. (2012). New Government’s Initiatives for Industrial Development in Myanmar. In H. Lim, & Y. Yamada (Eds.), Economic Reforms in Myanmar: Pathways and Prospects. Bangkok, Thailand: Bangkok Research Center, IDE-JETRO. Min, A., & Kudo, T. (2014). Business Conglomerates in the Context of Myanmar’s Economic Reform. In L. Hank, & Y. I.-J. Yamada (Eds.), Myanmar’s Integration with Global Economy: Outlook and Opportunities. Bankgkok, Thailand: Bangkok Research Center. Ministry of Commerce and International Trade Centre. (2014). National Export Strategy: Textiles and Garments Sector Strategy 2015-2019. Ministry of Commerce and International Trade Centre. Myanmar Business Today. (2014, July 11). Myanmar to Resume Jade Mining in Kachin State. Retrieved January 9, 2017, from Myanmar Business Today Website: http://www. mmbiztoday.com/articles/myanmar-resume-jade-mining-kachin-state. Myanmar Business Today. (2016, February 20). Singapore emerges as new major investors in Myanmar. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from Myanmar Business Today: https://www. mmbiztoday.com/articles/singapore-emerges-new-major-investor-myanmar. Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business. (2015). Land, Briefing Paper. Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business. Yangon: Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business. Myanmar Legal Service. (2016, November 26). Doing Business in Myanmar. Retrieved March 7, 2017, from Myanmar Legal Service: http://www.myanmarlegalservices.com/index. php/doing-business-in-myanmar/. Myanmar Times. (2014, June 2). Retrieved March 7, 2017, from Measuring poverty is more than tweaking data: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/opinion/10537-measuring- poverty-is-more-than-tweaking-data.html. Myanmar Times. (2015, January 29). Government Earms US$ 170 Million Month from Gas Exports. Retrieved January 9, 2017, from Myanmar Times: http://www.mmtimes.com/ index.php/business/15034-govt-earns-us-170-million-monthly-from-gas-exports.html. Myanmar Times. (2016, July 20). Irrigation budget halved in agricultural policy change. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from Myanmar Times: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/ national-news/21475-irrigation-budget-halved-in-agricultural-policy-change.html. Myanmar Times. (2016, January 26). Real reform requires transforming Myanmar’s state- owned companies. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from Myanmar Times: http://www. mmtimes.com/index.php/opinion/18663-real-reform-requires-transforming-myanmar-s- state-owned-companies.html. Myanmar Times. (2016, May 30). Yangon government surveys industrial land speculation. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from Myanmar Times: http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/ business/20566-yangon-government-surveys-industrial-land-speculation.html.
100 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Naing, S. (2002). The Impact of Agricultural Reforms on Rice Production in Myanmar since 1988. Thesis. Seoul, Republic of Korea: KDI School of Public Policy and Management. OECD. (2013). Multi-dimensional Review of Myanmar: Volume 1. Initial Assessment, OECD Development Pathways. Okamoto, I. (2005, December). Transformation of the Rice Marketing System and Myanmar’s Transition to a Market Economy. Chiba, Japan. Rieffel, L. (2015). Policy Options for Improving the Performance of the State Economic Enterprise Sector in Myanmar. Singapore, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Robertson, B., & Taung, M. S. (2015, July). Industrial Zones in Myanmar: Diagnostic Review and Policy Recommendations. Yangon, Myanmar. Soe, A., & Kyi, T. (2016). Overview of Irrigation Development and Government Policy in Myanmar. Taipei, Taiwan. Soe, T. (2004). Myanmar in Economic Transition: Constraints and Related Issues Affecting the Agricultural Sector. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 1, No. 2. Laguna, Philippines. Than, M., & Nishizawa, N. (1990). Agricultural Policy Reforms and Agricultural Development in Myanmar. In M. Than, & J. Tan (Eds.), Myanmar Dilemmas and Options: The Challenge of Economic Transition in the 1990s. Singapore, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Than, T. M. (2006). State Dominance in Myanmar: The Political Economy of Industrialization. Singapore, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. The Government of the Union of Myanmar. (2013). Framework for Economic and Social Reforms (2012-2015). Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar: The Government of the Union of Myanmar. The Irrawaddy. (2008, June 19). Water buffaloes needed in cyclone-hit Burma, says FAO. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from The Irrawaddy: https://web.archive.org/ web/20110302225338/http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=12835. The Japan Times. (2015, December 15). Japan’s participation in Thai-Myanmar Dewei economic zone to boost confidence in project. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from The Japan Times: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/12/15/business/japans- participation-thai-myanmar-dawei-economic-zone-boost-confidence-project/. The Manila Times. (2013, June 22). The potential of mechanization in agriculture. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from The Manila Times: “The Potential of Mechanization in Agriculture”. 22 June 2013. http://www.manilatimes.net/the-potential-of- mechanization-in-agriculture/12160/.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 101 The President Office. (2016, October 26). The formation of private sector development committee, Notification No. 79/2016. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from http://www. president-office.gov.mm/zg/?q=briefing-room/notifications/2016/10/26/id-11966. The President Office. (2016, March 11). VP addresses land grab issues to central committee. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from The Republic of the Union of Myanmar President Office: http://www.president-office.gov.mm/en/?q=briefing-room/news/2016/11/03/id-6721. The President Office. (2017, January 10). Plan for 2017/18 discussed prior to parliament submission. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from The Republic of the Union of Myanmar President Office: http://www.president-office.gov.mm/en/?q=briefing-room/ news/2017/01/10/id-7106. Thein, M. (2009). The Economic Transition in Myanmar after 1988: Market Economy Versus State Control. (F. M. Koichi Fujita, Ed.) Kyoto, Japan. Tin Soe. (2008). Policy Dilemmas and Economic Development: A Case Study of Myanmar Economy in Transition. Journal of International Cooperation Studies, 15(3). United Nations Development Programme. (2015). Human Development Report 2015 - Work for Human Development. United Nations Development Programme and Ministry of Planning and Economic Development. (2011). Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey in Myanmar (2009-2010): Poverty Profile. United States Department of Agriculture. (2015, June 11). Southeast Asia: 2015/16 rice production outlook at record levels. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural SErvice : https://www.pecad.fas.usda. gov/highlights/2015/06/Southeast_Asia/Index.htm. United States Department of Treasury. (2016, July 10). Burma sanctions program ended as of 10/7/2016. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from United States Department of Treasury: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/pages/burma.aspx. Vanderbruggen, E. (2014). Investing in the Myanmar Real Estate Sector. Yangon, Myanmar: VDB Loi Myanmar Ltd. Wai, W.-k. (1976). Rice Economy of Burma and Thailand: A Comparative Study. (T. U. Kong, Producer) Retrieved March 15, 2017, from The HKU Scholars Hub: http://dx.doi. org/10.5353/th_b4456941. Win, U. K. (1991). A Century of Rice Improvement in Burma. Manila, Philippines: International Rice Research Institute. Wong, L., & Aye Wai, E. M. (2013). Rapid Value Chain Assessment: Structure and Dynamics of the Rice Value Chain in Myanmar. Yangon, Yangon, Myanmar.
102 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar World Bank. (2014). Myanmar Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity in a Time of Transition. World Bank. Yangon: World Bank. World Bank. (2016). Growing together, reducing rural poverty in Myanmar. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from World Bank: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/176831467995899631/Growing-together-reducing-rural-poverty-in-Myanmar. World Bank. (2016). Myanmar Analysis of Farm Production Economics. World Bank. Yangon: World Bank. World Bank. (2017, February 1). World Development Indicators. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development- indicators. Xinhua Myanmar. (2016, May 25). Resettlement for 430,000 informal squatters in Yangon Region annouced by Chief Minister U Phyo Min Thein at the press conference. Retrieved March 9, 2017, from Xinhua Myanmar: “Resettlement for 430,000 Informal Squatters in Yangon Region announced by Chief Minister U Phyo Min Thein at the Press Conference”, Retrieved from http://www.xinhuamyanmar.com/myanmar/soci al/4629-2016-05-25-09-58-18. Xinhua News. (2015, October 23). Myanmar Gems Emporium Drops in Earning this Year. Retrieved January 9, 2017, from Xinhua News: http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/2015-07/07/c_134388804.htm.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 103 AppendixAppendix 1
The 12-point Economic Policy of Myanmar
Vision The economic policy of the Union of Myanmar is people-centered, and aims to achieve inclusive and continuous development. It aims to establish an economic framework that supports national reconciliation, based on the just balancing of sustainable natural resource mobilization and allocation across the States and Regions.
Objectives 1. To support national reconciliation and the emergence of a united federal democratic union. 2. To create favorable economic conditions for achieving balanced economic development across the States and Regions. 3. To create opportunities for the emergence of capable and skilled new generations for the benefit of the country. 4. To establish an economic system that can achieve and maintain positive development outcomes through the participation, innovation and efforts of all citizens.
Policies (1) Expanding our financial resources through transparent, effective public financial management.
A. Establishing public financial management system. B. Implementing government budgetary process in a transparent manner by setting guidance and supervision. C. Increasing tax revenue by establishing types of taxes, tax rates and tax collection system which are in line with international standards in a transparent manner. D. Transforming from Official Assessment System to Self-Assessment System. E. Reforming and simplifying custom system based on international standards. F. Taking external loans and grants if government budget is not sufficient enough to finance public services to fulfill public needs. G. Trying to increase financial resources for education and health sectors. H. Prioritizing projects/works that benefit to the public. Implementing these projects/ works through government budget. Public-private partnership will be undertaken for large-scale project with large-scale investment that government cannot afford.
104 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar I. Examining projects proposed by either through government budget or region/ state budget whether these are proposed in line with national economic objectives and policies. Approval will be granted by scrutinizing based on economic efficiency, benefit from projects. J. 70% of total recurrent expenditures of the government budget is for workforce, vehicles, machinery and office equipment expenses. Outputs of these expenditures will be compared. Each and every budget heading will be examined during the approval process. K. Establishing banking system that people can trust and establishing banks and financial institutions in line with international standards. L. Establishing a system/program that can prevent money laundering and terrorists’ financial supports in order to invite Myanmar banks and businesses in the financial market. M. Adopting floating exchange rate system and will try to stabilize foreign exchange rate. N. Setting objectives to increase government reserve fund. O. Applying Sovereign Credit Rating system. P. Establishing financial services through mobile phones. Q. Making stock exchange businesses more developed. R. Developing insurance market in line with international standard. S. Allowing international insurance companies to work in Myanmar. T. Removing restrictions on competitiveness of insurance companies for premium and services. U. Trying to become a member country of Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative for transparency of natural resource extraction.
(2) Improving the operations of state owned enterprises, privatizing those state owned enterprises that have the potential to be reformed, while promoting and assisting small and medium enterprises as a generator of employment and growth.
A. Publishing fiscal information of SEEs to the public. B. Re-organize committee/team in order to make SEEs to be economically efficient; to have access to technology, raw materials, inputs and competitive markets; and to produce quality products. C. SEEs that should be operated by private sector rather than public sector will be operated with the collaboration of private sector (partnership, joint-venture, lease); these SEEs will be allowed to operate in the form of corporatization and privatization.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 105 D. Providing assistance to small and medium sized enterprises to have an access to technology, financial assistance, skilled-labour, raw materials, energy and market. E. Enacting necessary laws and regulations for the development of small and medium seized enterprises. F. Expanding labour-intensive export-oriented industries and connecting to the international market network through the expansion of domestic markets with labour-intensive industries. G. Using energy efficiently in industries and economic infrastructure by providing training, establishing policies and enacting laws.
(3) Foresting the human capital that will be needed for the emergence of a modern development economy, and improving and expanding vocational education and training.
A. Trained people starting from kindergarten and primary schools to become good citizens with physical, mental, moral, social and economic developments. Conducting professional lessons, discussions and debates for news and information programmes. B. Producing experts and academician systematically, by subjects, by sectors and by geographical locations for socio-economic development of the country. C. Developing for both academic and vocational education. D. Providing teaching facilities in line with international standards. E. Producing outstanding experts, academicians, technicians and vocational experts by academic fields. F. Produced skillful doctors, nurses and health care workers who can be relied by people in order to meet national needs.
(4) Prioritizing the rapid development of fundamental economic infrastructure such as electricity generating, roads, ports and establishing a Data ID card System, Digital Government Strategy and an e-Government System.
A. Conducting Environmental Impact Assessment/Social Impact Assessment of electricity production and supply industries to ensure the minimum impact of these industries on environment and communities. B. Using hydropower, wind power, solar power and other energy sources to produce electric power to fulfill the demand of the electricity. C. Producing base-load hydroelectric power. Other energy sources that minimize impact on environment will also be added.
106 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar D. Upgrading local roads and constructing new roads that connects among regions apart from union high way roads. E. Upgrading and maintaining existing bridges. F. Establishing industrial zones in deep sea ports, along high way roads, gateways in border areas and strategic areas. G. Implementing the development of deep sea ports/sea ports and dry ports (inland ports). H. Ensuring the quality and security of basic infrastructure. I. Promoting electronic system and ICT system for domestic business to be able to connect international businesses. J. Establishing data ID card system, digital government strategy and e-Government system.
(5) Creating employment opportunity for all citizens including those returning from abroad and giving greater priority in the short term to the economic enterprises that create many job opportunities.
A. Promoting the development of labor-intensive industries. B. Promoting home industries that produce local products for the excess labour in agricultural sector. C. Making internal/external labor migration in a systematic manner. D. Improving job opportunities and modern technology through the cooperation between domestic and foreign investors. E. Enacting laws and regulations for the labor rights and responsibilities. F. Creating job opportunities by promoting the status of hotels in Myanmar through the cooperation between domestic and foreign investors; improving logistics services; making an enabling environment for private sector tourism companies.
(6) Establishing an economic model that balances agriculture and industry, and supports the holistic development of agriculture, livestock and industrial sectors, so as to enable rounded development, food security, and increased exports.
A. Providing seeds that will be suitable with geographical areas, financial capital, technological support and assistance to offer market access for farmers in order to ensure domestic sufficiency, raw materials for production and promotion of exports of agricultural products in agricultural sector. B. Implementing livestock businesses that will be suitable with geographical areas and providing assistance in having species for breeding, technology, financial capital and access to market in livestock sector.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 107 C. Extending value-added industries such as cold storages and canned-food factories in order to receive more foreign earning and create job opportunities in livestock and fisheries sector. D. Seeking technological and financial assistance from both international and domestic organisations and agencies, as well as collaborate with these organisations for having an access to external market for the sustainable development of the balances of agricultural sector, livestock and fisheries sector, and industrial sector. E. Promoting value-added agricultural products production to become export- oriented industries through the expansion of domestic market. F. Implementing the development of agriculture, livestock and fisheries based industries and international standard products in the market. G. Reviewing existing farmland related laws and policies in order to guarantee tenure rights. H. Re-establishing Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank to be able to implement in accordance with its objectives. I. Enacting necessary laws, regulations and procedures for the development of in private sector financial services rural areas.
(7) Asserting the right of individuals to freely pursue the economic opportunities they choose, so as to private sector growth in line with the market economy system; formulating specific policies to increase foreign investment; and strengthening property rights and the rule of law.
A. Farmers will be allowed to grow, produce and market freely. B. Ensuring the enabling environment for business. C. Establishing specific policies for the inflow of foreign investments and technologies. D. Establishing patent law for products of businesses and entrepreneurs. E. Strengthening banking system, simplifying laws and regulations for both domestic and foreign private investors for private sector development. F. Improving hotel and tourism businesses and producing value-added domestic products. G. Using location advantage of the country effectively to compete with neighboring countries for production and services businesses. H. Forming teak and hardwood plantation through both domestic and international investors based on open tender system in order to strengthen timber production and private sector development.
108 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar I. Forming community forests in order to strengthen public participation in forestry management system. J. Forming private forestry plantation and establishing wooden based industries through both domestic and international investors if there are no environmental and social impacts in order to receive raw materials in the long term.
(8) Achieving financial stability through a finance system that can support the sustainable long-term development of households, farmers, and business.
A. Improving banking services in rural areas in order to make rural population and farmers to understand and trust banking services. B. Establishing insurance system for rural population and farmers C. Making financial services available for farmers to have an access to agricultural loans and strengthening rural financial institutions. D. Establishing microfinance institutions for the long-term development of agriculture, livestock, fishery, home industries and small-scale industries and for their financial capital. E. Reviewing current interest rates and examining duration of loans and collateral requirements.
(9) Building environmentally sustainable cities, upgrading public service and utilities, expanding public spaces, and making greater effort to protect and conserve our culture heritage.
A. Taking account into environmental issues for urban development and public service delivery. B. Establishing, extending and upgrading urban areas. Identifying public areas (parks, playgrounds, schools, hospitals). C. Preserving heritage sites for the long term development. D. Reducing environmental impacts in building basic infrastructure such as urban areas, roads and bridges, jetties, irrigation dams, hydropower industries, national grids and mining businesses. E. Constructing floodwalls to reduce flooding problem and erosion. F. Upgrading public service delivery and maintaining public areas.
(10) Establishing a fair and efficient tax system in order to increase government revenue, and protecting individual rights and property rights through enhancing laws and regulations.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 109 A. Implementing Government Revenue Administration and Allocation system. B. Trying to receive tax revenue for the country. Modifying tax rates and providing exemption and discounts by examining benefits and ability to pay by taxpayers. C. Ensuring the stability of economy and fairness while setting tax rates based on economic development. D. Ensuring transparency and trying to meet tax revenue targets. Trying to improve tax system in line with international standards. E. Providing services to taxpayers, identifying compliance cases throughout tax collection process and simplifying procedures.
(11) Establishing technical systems and procedures to support intellectual property rights that can encourage innovation and development of advanced technology.
A. Establishing innovation centers in Yangon and Mandalay cities in order to improve innovative skills and encourage creating advance technology. B. Establishing laws systems and regulations that can support intellectual property rights. C. Establishing standards to be in line with international standards.
(12) Identifying the changing and developing business environment both in ASEAN and beyond, so as to enable our own business to situate them to take advantage of potential opportunities.
A. Implementing for the development of businesses systematically by analyzing the development status of ASEAN and other regions. B. Promoting businesses that produce potential products through domestic value chain and global value chain. C. Establishing export system with various products in order to shift from natural resource based exports to value-added product exports. D. Joining international market with quality export products to be in line with international standard to. E. Focusing on the development export-oriented small and medium sized enterprises with the openness of Myanmar and towards global community. F. Promoting small and medium size enterprises by inviting foreign investments and connecting to special economic zones. G. Overcoming trade restrictions identified in 2014 by World Trade Organization and connecting ASEAN Economic Community in 2018.
Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance (unofficial translation).
110 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar AppendixAppendix 2
Land Rights in Myanmar
Land rights issues have been rising since 2011 when the Thein Sein government undertook political and economic reform processes. The government amended and adopted many new laws since 2011. According to the article 35, 37, 325 and 372 of the 2008 constitution, all lands in Myanmar are ultimately owned by the Union. However, the constitution also provides for ownership and protection of private land property rights. Based on that, a private investor can acquire land or land use rights from either the government or from a private land rights owner. A foreign investor can lease land (Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, 2015). In 2012, the parliament approved two new land laws: namely, the Farmland Law and the Vacant, Fallow, and Virgin Land Management Law.
Land acquisition is governed by the 1894 Land Acquisition Act, which was established by the British government under the colonial rule. Article 40 1-b of the act provides that the government can carry out land acquisitions for a company when the acquisition is “likely to prove useful to the public”. The act also permits land expropriation because the government “is or was bound” to provide land under an agreement with a company, without any additional requirement of public interest. According to Article 23 of the act, the compensation shall be at market value with adjustments, and land in kind can be provided in lieu of monetary compensation. Before the expropriation process is commenced, the government shall give notice to the landowner and declare the intention of acquisition in the government gazette. A process for objections is only described in the 1894 Land Acquisition Act. There is no procedure for objections to acquisitions or compensation for vacant, fallow and virgin land or farmland. Most importantly, there is no specific law on expropriation or resettlement (Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, 2015).
Under the military government before 2011, large tracts of land were allocated to businesses. With the inflow of foreign investment, land prices in towns and cities especially in Yangon and Mandalay have continued to increase dramatically and there have also been land disputes since 2011.39)
Regarding foreign investment in Myanmar, land confiscation and forced relocation are prohibited by Article 126 of 2012 Foreign Investment Rules. For compensation at market value, consent from the affected communities and permission from the relevant government departments are needed.1)
39) One of the most significant land confiscationstook place in the Thilawa Special Economic Zone (SEZ) that affected more than 4,000 people residing in six villages. In November 2013, the government tried to resettle residents in Thilawa without finishing the relocation sites. 81 households were moved from the Phase 1 area, 68 out of which have been displaced to poor-standard relocation site. Due to the protest against the government’s action on resettlement, residents were then moved into the site where conditions were still far below the living standards they had in their former homes (Earth Rights International, 2015). In May 2016, Thilawa SEZ Management Committee drafted the Resettlement Work Plan of their Zone B.
Chapter 1 _ Socioeconomic Development Strategy in Myanmar • 111 In 2012, the government established cabinet level Land Allotment and Utilization Scrutiny Committee in order to develop national land-use policy, land-use planning, and allocation of land. Land-use policy is drafted by the working group of the committee. In 2013, the government formed the Land-use Management Central Committee in order to resolve land disputes, received a total of 17,718 complaints and managed to resolve 1,065 cases through the return of land or by offering financial compensation.
The 2016 version of National Land Use Policy addresses land classification, community land tenure systems and dispute resolution. Under the National Land Use Policy, the National Land Use Council shall be chaired by a Vice-President, relevant union ministers and chief ministers of states/regions as members, and a representative elected and assigned by members as a secretary. The technical advisory committee consists of stakeholders from different groups such as farmers association, ethnic nationalities, civil society organizations, academia and private sector.
The new NLD government formed the Central Committee on Confiscated Farmland and Other Land on 5 May 2016 (Notification No. 14/2016) based on the principle of restitution, chaired by the Vice President, vice-chaired by Minister of Home Affairs and Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation, and Minister of Defense, Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Industry, Minister of Construction, Chairman of Nay Pyi Taw and state/region Chief Misters of state/region as members. The Deputy Minister of Home Affairs is the secretary of the committee. The role of central committee is to monitor state/region governments on land disputes. The central committee has also formed committees across all level of governments.
The central committee developed a five-point policy for confiscated land and three-point policy for land confiscated by Tatmadaw and an eight-step procedure for returning released land to former owners, a seven-point work plan for land that cannot be released to former owners, a five-point guideline for released land and a fifteen-point guideline for committees at various levels. State/region parliaments submitted 2056 cases and only 33 cases have been solved (The President Office, 2016).40)2)
40) To assess the extent of the “land grabbing” problem, the MDRI conducted a household survey in all of Mon State and 4 out of 15 townships in the Delta to find out how land transfers had taken place. According to the survey, 60% of landless households sold their land to neighbors or relatives due to their economic problems; 25% transferred their land to the local land office due to lack of tillage; and 15% sold to the military and cronies. The military took about 10% and cronies, 5%. According to the household survey, “land grabbing” in the sense of taking land away without any compensation seems to account for a relatively small proportion of land transfers. However, if “land grabbing” includes the return of “idled” land and the sale of land at an “unfair” price to the military and cronies, its proportion would change considerably, depending on how the terms “idled” and “unfair” are defined.
112 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar: Beyond Economic Liberalization: Chapter 2 New Policy Challenges for Myanmar
Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar
1. Introduction 2. Official Statistics of Myanmar 3. Korea’s Experience in Statistical Development 4. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations ■ Chapter 02
Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar
Gyungtae Kim (Korea Statistics Promotion Institute)
Summary
Myanmar, a developing country with huge potential, is striving to improve the collection and assessment of its official statistics, as statistics is an objective measurement tool for all processes from planning to evaluation and provides empirical evidence usable in policymaking. Moreover, in April 2017, the Myanmar Development Institute (MDI) was officially launched, and the MDI researchers are expected to begin policy research in near future. For developing suitable policy alternatives, MDI researchers should easily access accurate and timely data. The development of statistics in Myanmar can be considered a cornerstone for national development.
Central Statistiscal Organization (CSO), despite being the national statistical authority, cannot properly control the statistical activities of other organizations under the decentralized statistical system. That is an underlying cause that produces discrepancies and inaccuracies in collected data. In this context, CSO was required to enhance its role and authority as a coordinator of statistical activities and requested assistances in formulating strategies for improving national statistical system.
Myanmar has insufficient social overhead capital such as electricity, transportation and communication facilities. This makes it difficult for statistical agencies to collect raw data through interviews and send data. These problems must first be approached by improving related infrastructure at the national level.
114 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 115 To overcome administrative problems, the study showed that the top priority for resolving these problems is stronger authority for the CSO. As the new Myanmar government is extensively revising Statistics Laws, this promises to boost the role of the Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics. In this respect, the CSO’s primary role is to first harmonize statistical terminology and concepts. This can be done by complying with the varying types of standard classifications recommended by international organizations. Second, the CSO requires stronger authority to coordinate the statistical activities of agencies including line ministries. To realize this, the adoption of two systems is recommended: designation of statistics-producing agencies and approval of statistical production. The CSO should also oversee the setting and implementation of long-term policy objectives and carrying out a strategy for national statistical development.
Additionally, the CSO must assess user needs through statistical demand surveys and take appropriate actions such as ordering relevant agencies to produce data on demand. In this context, all statistical activity processes should abide by the GSBPM to produce statistics through a standardized process. Also, the CSO is suggested to eventually adopt the Statistical Quality Assessment and Statistics-based Policy Evaluation.
Another need is improvement of the method for the collection of raw data. In the traditional method, an interviewer sits down with respondents in person and writes down their responses. Given growing concerns over privacy, however, conditions for data collection have greatly deteriorated. So new survey methodologies are needed. Utilizing emerging ICT techniques will allow far more convenient and scientific methods of data collection such as CASI, CAPI, CATI and netbooks.
The ultimate goal is to transform statistical administration into a low cost, highly efficient system. The initiative focuses the spotlight on the use of administrative records. With the rapid development of science and technology, especially computers, statistical production is possible by collecting and processing the information that each line ministry collects and stores for administrative use. In the Republic of Korea, its 2015 population census was based on registration.
Statistics in the Republic of Korea have seen success thanks to several factors. First, Statistics Korea (KOSTAT), the country’s statistical authority, has moved across governing bodies based on progress in national development and changes in era. Second, KOSTAT is an independent agency with full authority over its activities. It conducts statistical demand surveys to respond to needs for data and crunches numbers. Moreover, KOSTAT has the power to review and comment on the statistical budget of line ministries. Another critical component for success is the strong leadership of KOSTAT’s chief. The CSO, as mandated by the Committee on Data
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 115 Accuracy and Quality of Statistics, thus needs to take a more active role in statistical coordination by thoroughly reviewing and approving statistical activities, including those of line ministries.
Myanmar can learn from the Republic of Korea’s experience in statistical development to blaze its own path in national statistical development. In doing so, with its newly strengthened statistics law, the CSO should reach a consensus within the union government for national statistical development and build a strong foundation for its statistical coordination authority.
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
After nearly half a century of a stagnant economy, Myanmar in 2011 saw the inauguration of a civilian government. The country has devised and implemented policies aimed at national development under a gradual approach to opening. As part of these policies, the union government announced on June 19, 2012, four economic policies1) that include the improvement of national statistics and the statistical system. The underlying reason for emphasis on statistical development is the basic need for accurate statistical information in devising and evaluating development policy.
As such, the government recognizes the importance of statistics and has set forth tasks for statistical advancement based on knowledge transfers from countries with advanced statistical systems. Improvement of survey methodologies is a pressing issue for Myanmar. To benchmark the economic growth and statistical development it has achieved over the past 50 years, the Republic of Korea government has been entrusted with providing consultation on data collection to Myanmar. This consulting project thus seeks to fulfill the request of the CSO under the Myanmar Ministry of Planning and Finance for consultation on improving official statistics and survey methodologies.
In 2015, the government-run Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) built a statistical database for the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) of the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MOPF) to facilitate storage and use of Myanmar’s statistical information. Moreover, the Republic of Korea government supports the setup of Myanmar Development Institute (MDI) in Nay Pyi Taw, a think tank that benchmarks the Korea Development Institute (KDI). Once MDI is launched, 1) ① To develop agriculture and become an industrialized nation, ② Balance and proportionate growth ③ Inclusiveness for the entire population, and ④ Quality statistics and development of a statistical system.
116 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 117 researchers who need a wide range of policy-related information can obtain basic data with ease. The statistical advancement of Myanmar can be considered a cornerstone for national development.
Initially, the CSO description of the project specified several surveys including the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, Vital Survey, Industrial Survey, Trade Survey and Business Survey, as well as their data collection, organization, analysis, monitoring, interpretation and presentation.
Based on a demand assessment2) that followed, the CSO pointed out the following problems in Myanmar’s statistical system and activities and requested assistance in formulating strategies for improvement.
◆◆ Under the country’s decentralized statistical system, the CSO, despite being the main statistical authority, cannot control the statistical activities of other organizations that produce data.
• Definitions of statistical terminologies vary by organization.
• Sources of raw data differ across organizations, resulting in conceptual discrepancies.
• Certain line ministries have overlaps in statistical areas. Select agencies determine whether to conduct surveys based on their budgets. So the CSO should supervise and coordinate statistical activities of all relevant agencies.
• As such, the CSO needs assistance in the following areas: -- Technical methods for controlling the statistical activities of other agencies; -- Fostering skilled statistical personnel based on examples of other countries.
• Collecting comments from stakeholders involved in statistical programs is helpful.
• The amended Myanmar Statistics Law was drafted by the previous administration with ADB. Final approval remains pending by the incumbent administration. -- The new (draft) law stipulates that the CSO make reports to the cabinet on statistical policy. -- Timeliness and reliability of data should be improved while data dissemination must meet international standards. For example, Myanmar has implemented the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s General Data Dissemination Standard (GDDS) but has not joined the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
2) Nay Pyi Taw, Aug. 29, 2016.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 117 • Sectoral working groups are needed in valuing the importance of harmonization among international development partners. In collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF), the CSO has hosted meetings of sectoral working groups for statistics with development partners several times a year.
• The business registration system should be reviewed. -- Agencies lack interest in statistics. Business registration is spread across several agencies depending on relevance. -- The CSO should oversee business registration activities and monitor business ups and downs across industrial sectors.
• Survey methodologies for sectors need to be improved. -- The CSO shall supervise and coordinate all official statistical activities.
• Survey coordination standards need to be design. -- The CSO shall manage standard classifications, population frame and questionnaires.
• The CSO is highly interested in learning new survey methodologies such as: -- e-Survey (i.e., via laptop) and use of administrative and big data
As described above, the CSO has requested to the Republic of Korea a comprehensive evaluation of statistical issues, and the KSP’s consultation covers a broad spectrum of topics on statistical activities.
Since several international organizations are conducting support activities in Myanmar statistics, the KSP reviewed the activities of each organization and found no overlapping with this project.
For research direction, the goal was to devise a strategy grounded in the Republic of Korea’s experience in statistical development and tailored to Myanmar’s development phase to ensure feasibility. Extra attention went to the progress in Myanmar’s development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and this was incorporated into the design of the CSO’s statistical development strategy.
1.2. Research Areas
1.2.1. Official Statistics
The definition of a country’s official statistics can vary. In Korea, the official statistics is defined by the Statistics Act. Article 3 provides the legal definition of
118 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 119 statistics as “any numerical information collected directly by a statistics collection agency or by commissioning or entrusting to another agency, corporation, organization, etc. (hereinafter “agency, etc”.) concerning a specific group, object, etc., such as industry, commodity price, population, housing, culture and environment for the purpose of utilizing it in formulating and evaluating government policies or in researching and analyzing socioeconomic phenomena or for other purposes”. The legal definition can also be presented in more detail vis-a-vis government policy.3),4)
Statistics is a science that serves as infrastructure for public administration. In other words, statistics comprise basic information that objectively presents a nation’s status and progress. They are used to provide a national vision and support policy planning. At the same time, statistics are used by businesses and individuals in strategic planning and decision making. They provide indispensable information for the government, individuals and businesses that seek rationality and efficiency. Statistics are public goods that require the authority to enforce surveys, and due to other attributes of the statistical collection process, statistical production should be left in the government’s hands.5)
1.2.2. Use of Statistics (Statistics and Policy)
A fundamental task in modern public administration is evidence-based policymaking. In other words, a decision-making body such as the government or business cannot decide something without supporting evidence. Statistics are an objective measurement tool for all processes from planning to evaluation, and thus provides the evidence used in decision making.
Given the importance of statistics, all countries produce and use statistics, usually led by central governments. The type of statistics and their use are determined by the political and administration systems of each country.
Today, statistics are the most effective tools for understanding the past and present and for planning the future, as well as resolving conflicts. The government’s role in the 21st century is ever expanding, and public policy requires more precision and detail than before. Consequently, government agencies are finding it increasingly important to use statistics in policymaking and evaluation.6)
3) Japan’s Statistics Act also provides legal definitions of statistical terminology in Article 2 of Chapter 1. 4) The draft of the Myanmar Statistics Law provides a detailed description of the concept of official statistics. 5) KOICA (2015). 6) KOICA (2015).
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 119 2. Official Statistics of Myanmar
2.1. Official Statistics - Current Status and Issues at Stake
Myanmar has 352 statistical products compiled by 133 statistical producers that collect raw data by obtaining administrative data from other government agencies, regional offices or direct surveys conducted by such offices.
Due to poor infrastructure (i.e., electricity and transportation), conditions for field data collection and transmission of collected data to headquarters are extremely unfavorable. Once collected, data are sent from the field to offices through postal mail or in person, and sometimes via email or fax. The main reason for such primitive methods of data transmission in Myanmar is its outdated telecommunication infrastructure. Statistical information can be transmitted via a dedicated network or the internet. Myanmar, however, has no dedicated network between agencies, making the internet the only available network. The country’s underdeveloped ICT infrastructure makes it difficult to transfer statistical information. A minimum internet speed of 10Mbps is required for transmitting statistical data, but the measured speeds in Yangon (1-2Mbps) and Nay Pyi Taw (4-5Mbps) in 2015 were unfit for statistical data transfer.7)
2.1.1. Myanmar’s Statistical System and Statistical Activities
2.1.1.1. Statistics Act
The Central Statistical Authority Act was enacted in 1952 in Myanmar. The country’s top statistical agency was the Central Statistical and Economic Department (CSED) responsible for producing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and publishing statistical reports. In 1974, the CSED was reorganized as the CSO. GDP estimation and population census functions were transferred to other departments. In 1988, Myanmar transitioned into a market-oriented and open economy in accordance with the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC).
The Statistics Act has remained the same over the years without reflecting changes in history and statistical demand. This law is effectively ignored, however, especially provisions on statistical activities, and penalties for violations are both too lenient and unsuitable for today.
7) KOICA (2015).
120 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 121 The Myanmar government has thus prepared a new statistics law with consultation from the ADB, but has yet to obtain final approval from the new NLD-led administration. The revision will vitalize the role of the Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics. As such, the CSO’s primary role will be standardization of statistical terminology and concepts and effective coordination of the statistical activities of line ministries. This is because the coordination function is crucial in the decentralized statistical system to prevent duplication or omission of national statistics.
2.1.1.2. Statistical System
A national statistical system refers to the overall mechanism in which statistics demanded by society are produced and disseminated. In other words, it is a structure in which the government determines the statistics demanded by society and takes appropriate steps to produce such data for dissemination to data users.
A statistical system can be described as either centralized or decentralized depending on a country’s historical, political and administrative contexts.
◆◆ Centralized statistical system • One (or two) agencies responsible for producing and disseminating all official statistics • Use of objective statistical expertise but timely responses to statistical demand in separate areas might not be met (i.e., Canada, UK, Australia, Philippines and Egypt) • National statistical authority deploys liaisons to each line ministry to determine statistical demand
◆◆ Decentralized statistical system • Each agency produces and disseminates needed statistics • Statistical demand fulfillable in timely manner as statistical agency can utilize its area of expertise; duplicate or overlapping data collection possible across agencies (i.e., the US, Japan and Republic of Korea). • Coordination role of central statistical agency critical.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 121 [Figure 2-1] Comparison between Centralized and Decentralized Statistical System
Source: National Statistical Development Strategy Report - The Project of Capacity Building through IT-based Statistical Data Management in Myanmar, KOICA (2015).
Myanmar has a decentralized statistical system in which each line ministry produces and uses statistics it needs. CSO is under the Ministry of Planning and Finance. The country has 352 statistical products produced by 133 organizations (102 government-run and 31 private).
2.1.2. Central Statistical Organization
2.1.2.1. History of CSO
The Statistics Law of Myanmar was enacted in 1952. The Central Statistical and Economic Department (CSED) was set up for producing GDP data and publishing statistical reports. In 1974, the CSED was reorganized as the CSO, with GDP estimation duties transferred to the Department of Planning under the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development (MNPED) and census functions to the Ministry of Population and Immigration (MPI).
In 1988, Myanmar transitioned into a market-oriented and open economy in accordance with the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). Statistics law has remained the same over the years without reflecting changes in history and statistical demand, and is thus largely ignored.
2.1.2.2. Organization and Personnel
The CSO, one of 21 departments and organizations under the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MOPF) of the union government, serves as the country’s central statistical authority per statistics law.8)
8) Article 6, The Central Statistical Authority Act.
122 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 123 Statistical personnel
The CSO headquartered in Nay Pyi Taw is comprised of the Economic Statistics Division, Social Statistics Division, Trade Statistics Division, Administrative and Computer Division, and Survey and Research Statistics Division. It has 15 state and regional offices.9) The CSO has a staff capacity of 906 (262 at headquarters and 644 at state and regional offices).10)
[Figure 2-2] Organizational Structure of Central Statistical Organization
Agriculture, Livestock, Fishey & Forestry Section Particular Allow Economic Statistics Officers 359 Division Industry, Mining & Energy Section Staff 547 Officers Staff Construction & Transport Communications Section Total 906 Allow 14 27 Appoint 14 15 Deputy Director Monetary & Investment Statistics Section General (National Statistics) Social Statistics Social and Labour Section Division
Officers Staff Allow 9 27 Vital Statistics Section Appoint 9 17
Trade Statistics Price and Internal Trade Section Division
Officers Staff Allow 10 28 Foreign Trade Section Director General Appoint 9 13
Administrative Section Administrative and Computer Division Account Section Officers Staff Allow 21 99 Appoint 14 59 System and Application Section
Survey and Research Survey Section Statistics Division
Officers Staff Allow 9 15 Research and Development Section Deputy Director Appoint 9 7 General (Regional and Survey) Head of Office Regional Office Branches of State and Regional Offices, Township Officers Staff and Self-Administered Offices Allow 293 351 Region and District (327 No.) Appoint 163 237 Offices (82 No.)
Source: Central Statistics Organization.
Budget
The CSO’s budget for a non-census year has risen to nearly MMK 1 billion11), which is considered an abysmally low amount.
9) Homepage of Myanmar Ministry of Planning and Finance (www.mopf.gov.mm). 10) Yet the real number of staff is 569 (169 at headquarters and 400 at state and regional offices). 11) About KRW 900 million.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 123
CSO’s Annual Budget(Unit: million MMK)
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
720 754 704 631 759 963 3,294
Note: 2015-16 census year. Source: Myanmar consultant Nyo Nyo San.
2.1.3. Statistical Activities
According to the Central Statistical Authority Act, the CSO has the power and mandate as the national statistical agency to coordinate the statistical activities of government ministries and other statistics producers within the National Statistical System (NSS) of Myanmar.12) This role, however, is in practice done in a limited and passive manner.
The CSO conducts surveys or obtains data from relevant agencies to produce statistics. The following surveys were conducted by the CSO:
• Household Income and Expenditure Survey; • Household Asset and Liabilities Survey; • Informal Sector Survey; • Survey on Evaluation of Vital Registration System; • National Mortality Survey; • Studies on select crops (paddy, groundnut, sesame and cotton); • Manufacturing Survey of Private Industrial Zone; • Price Survey; • Wholesale Trade Survey.
In addition, the CSO publishes the following statistical reports:
• Statistical Yearbook; • Selected Monthly Economic Indicators; • Agricultural Statistics in Myanmar; • Livestock and Fishery Statistics; • Forestry Statistics; • Statistical Profiles of Women and Children; • Monthly Consumer Price Index and Inflation;
12) The Central Statistical Authority Act, 1952. 5.(1).
124 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 125 • Foreign Trade Statistics; • Report on Household Income and Expenditure Survey (1997).
To produce these statistics, the CSO gathers raw data via field data collection by interviewers and administrative data by government agencies.
2.1.4. CSO - Issues at Stake
Insufficient Manpower and Budget
Production and dissemination of reliable statistics require the proper infrastructure. Statistical activities need qualified personnel as part of effective statistical infrastructure, and training to foster professionalism among staff is essential. Budget is also a crucial element in this process. In addition, social infrastructure such as transportation, communication and IT are integral to statistical activities.
For the CSO to effectively act as the country’s national statistical authority, sufficient personnel and budget are sorely needed. Yet the CSO is lacking in both areas. While Myanmar and the Republic of Korea share a similar population size and a decentralized statistical system, they have stark differences in many key indicators. The CSO has about 200 staff at headquarters and about 300 at state and regional offices, while KOSTAT has about 1,000 at headquarters and about 2,000 at regional and provincial offices.
Weak Coordination
The Statistics Law of Myanmar requires the CSO head to review and advice on all statistical activities of the union government.13) But this is done in a passive and limited manner. The agency should arrange and supervise the coordination and integration of statistical activities, but cannot effectively set definitive standards and play a coordination role for all official statistics. As a result, each line ministry has performed statistical activities independently.
In Myanmar, each line ministry commissions its regional umbrella agencies to collect data for their statistical needs. This can lead to the production of duplicate data or lack of consistency in collected data. Given the lack of monitoring and coordination of statistical activities among ministries, the ensuing inconsistency of statistics has led to criticism over data reliability. While data reliability is less of an issue in metropolitan areas, it is problematic in rural areas. For example, objective data collection in rural areas is difficult as the deceased are often cremated without proper death certificates after reporting a death to authorities as mandated by law.
13) 5.(1)(c), The Central Statistical Authority Act, 1952
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 125 Committee for Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics
The Committee for Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics has government officials as members who review and decide the important statistical issues of line ministries; members also guide or instruct staff to produce reliable statistics.14) Furthermore, subcommittees in all regions and states have members who directly perform practical works.
Under the decentralized statistical system, the committee is supposed to have the authority to manage and coordinate line ministries to have them follow international guidelines and recommendations. This is because each ministry performs its own data collection through its regional offices, and data reliability is often low.
Inadequate Statistical Expertise
CSO staffs also have insufficient statistical expertise and experience. They mainly perform mundane tasks in the publication of statistical reports and have long lacked opportunities to build adequate statistical capacity or gain new knowledge. This makes it difficult for them to adapt to new technologies or knowledge and thus hinders the development of statistical products as well as efforts to improve the business process.
Most new hires are college graduates with degrees in statistics or economic- related majors, and they undergo short-term training for new employees taught by senior CSO staff due to limited budget. Also, the organization lacks training in practical statistics that should be taught by senior staff to offer specialized and systematic training on practical statistical operations. More specifically, statistical (i.e., studies) and computer training for statistical processing (i.e., SAS and SPSS) are not taught by professional instructors. So other than the standard training for new staff, the CSO lacks in-house education for staff. Any additional training is done through international organizations, and overseas training opportunities are available to a few staff because of insufficient scholarships. This explains why the CSO lacks opportunities to learn new statistical methods.
Lack of Statistical Awareness
As shown in , United Nations developed a set of fundamental principles for to ensure quality of national statistic. However, the country has a general lack of understanding of the importance of the fundamental principles of official statistics.
14) Patron: Vice President, Chairman: Union Minister of Planning and Finance; Members: Permanent Secretariat from 19 line ministries, Committee Secretary: Director General of CSO (Chief Statistician) by Republic of the Union of Myanmar President’s Office Order 7/2016 11th Waning of Tagu, 1378 ME (3 May, 2016).
126 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 127 As a result, statistical information collected under Myanmar’s former planned economy is mostly administrative data and the latter’s objectivity and reliability is often questionable. Even under a market economy, the general public lacks understanding and awareness of the importance of statistics and is prone to refuse providing information. CSO staffs need a high level of commitment to their work as statisticians.
United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics
Principle 1. Official statistics provide an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society, serving the Government, the economy and the public with data about the economic, demographic, social and environmental situation. To this end, official statistics that meet the test of practical utility are to be compiled and made available on an impartial basis by official statistical agencies to honor citizens’ entitlement to public information. Principle 2. To retain trust in official statistics, the statistical agencies need to decide according to strictly professional considerations, including scientific principles and professional ethics, on the methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage and presentation of statistical data. Principle 3. To facilitate a correct interpretation of the data, the statistical agencies are to present information according to scientific standards on the sources, methods and procedures of the statistics. Principle 4. The statistical agencies are entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics. Principle 5. Data for statistical purposes may be drawn from all types of sources, be they statistical surveys or administrative records. Statistical agencies are to choose the source with regard to quality, timeliness, costs and the burden on respondents. Principle 6. Individual data collected by statistical agencies for statistical compilation, whether they refer to natural or legal persons, are to be strictly confidential and used exclusively for statistical purposes. Principle 7. The laws, regulations and measures under which the statistical systems operate are to be made public. Principle 8. Coordination among statistical agencies within countries is essential to achieve consistency and efficiency in the statistical system. Principle 9. The use by statistical agencies in each country of international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all official levels. Principle 10. Bilateral and multilateral cooperation in statistics contributes to the improvement of systems of official statistics in all countries. 46th Plenary Meeting July 24, 2013
Source: U.N. Statistics Division website (https://unstats.un.org).
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 127 2.2. Strategic Direction for Myanmar’s Offi cial Statistics
2.2.1. Long-term Vision and Policy Process
Since adopting its open policy, Myanmar has received assistance from numerous developed economies and international organization. It has formulated a long-term vision and policy planning for development as summarized in [Figure 2-3] below.
[Figure 2-3] Long-term Vision and Policy Process
Five Year Plan (2011-2016) Five Year Plan (2021-2025) “Quick win” Strengthening domestic and implementation international connectivity
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Five Year Plan (2017-2021) NCDP Vision (2030) e.g., Strengthen economic and Developed Nation Integrated investment base; key steps to into the Global Community reduce poverty and inequality
Source: 2015 National Comprehensive Development Plan, Union Government of Myanmar (2015).
According to the Myanmar government’s strategy, the second stage of reform (2017-21) seeks to boost economic and social reforms including people-centered development for inclusive growth. In this context, the planning of statistical development must serve as a crucial factor for planning and assessment.
2.2.2. Hard Infrastructure Improvement
2.2.2.1. Electricity, Transportation and Communication
The most critical infrastructure for improving statistical activities is electricity, transportation and communication facilities, as poor infrastructure makes it diffi cult to hold interviews or send data. Unfortunately, such infrastructure remains severely outdated in Myanmar. While lacking the full fi nancial capability to support development, the country has benefi ted from aid coming from developed economies and international organizations, and this has led to progress in infrastructure development. Given the geographical size of Myanmar, however, expansion of such crucial infrastructure is expected to take a long time.
128 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 129 2.2.2.2. Information Technologies (IT)
In 2012, the Myanmar government amended its telecommunications law to open the domestic telecom market to promote policy toward allowing access to telecom services by most regions of the country and people. As a result, domestic ICT infrastructure has been greatly improved in recent years. Yet the dissemination of electronic devices such as computers to the wider public requires higher income at the individual level, and this will take quite some time.
2.2.3. Soft Infrastructure Improvement
2.2.3.1. Decentralized Statistical System and Statistical Coordination
A. Decentralized Statistical System
While the statistical system of a country can differ depending on its political and cultural settings as well as its administrative system, Myanmar has a decentralized statistical system. This system is expected to continue in the country as Myanmar moves forward with its development initiatives. The underlying reason for Myanmar’s adoption of the decentralized statistical system is that each line ministry has traditionally exercised a high degree of power, making it difficult to integrate the statistical activities of all ministries into a centralized statistical system.
Countries using the decentralized statistical system must constantly strengthen statistical coordination activities. Under this system, a single agency is responsible for producing all official statistics, meaning data omission, duplication or conceptual discrepancy is less of a concern. On the other hand, a decentralized statistical system has many agencies doing their own statistical activities and could result in data omission or duplication; standardization of concepts is also a problem. This means the statistical authority must instill a strong coordination function for statistical activities within all line ministries.
Yet in Myanmar, the CSO and its coordination authority remain significantly weak. Boosting the agency’s status is thus critical for exercising strong authority to ensure effective statistical coordination.
B. Strengthening Role of National Statistical Committee
Legislative work on a new statistics law is under way in Myanmar. The law’s enactment should also expand and amplify the role of the National Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics. This committee should comprise high-ranking officials to decide key issues. It should also consist of subcommittees to implement
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 129 and review statistical agenda. A sub-committee should consist of working-level officials from each line ministry and every agenda of the committee to promote national statistical development.
The most critical task is setting the classifications of statistical standards (i.e., by industry, job or disease) and standardizing all statistical terminology covering all official data of Myanmar.
C. Designation of Statistics-producing Agency
The strengthening of the CSO’s statistical coordination activities requires an institutional framework for designation of agencies that produce statistics and approval of statistical production. The designation function gives the CSO the authority to officially designate agencies to produce and publish the country’s official statistics.
When an agency intends to produce official statistics, it must obtain CSO approval. The power to designate a statistical producer is the highest authority given to the CSO. The designation is based on screening the agency’s available staff, units and budget for statistical operations. Myanmar statistics law should include provisions for punishment or restrictions if an agency produces and/or publishes statistics in violation of regulations. Otherwise the Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics should order all the line ministries to enforce the decision.
D. Approval of Statistical Production
When a designated statistical agency intends to produce official statistics, it must obtain CSO approval. The CSO determines whether the description of statistics will prove valuable as new official statistics based on: • What information can be obtained from the statistics; • Any overlapping concerns with existing statistics; • Survey methodologies.
Any improvements to existing statistics must also obtain approval from the CSO head, also known as the country’s chief statistician.
E. Authority to Review Statistical Budget
The CSO is responsible for securing its own budget. It lacks a legal or institutional arrangement to deliberate on or get involved with the statistical budgets of other ministries. Due to lack of cooperation among ministries, the securing and execution of statistical budgets by public agencies are inefficient.
130 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 131 To ensure that their official statistical budgets are effectively secured and managed, all agencies should undergo pre-screening for statistical budgets so that overlapping work or inadequate areas can be adjusted in advance. The best solution is for this mandate to be prescribed in law, but if this is infeasible, it should be included in the agenda for deliberation by the Committee for Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics.
In the US, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is responsible for supervising and coordinating national statistical activities. The OMB’s Statistical Policy Branch controls the statistical budget to prevent waste of funds or personnel due to redundant data collection and coordinates statistical activities (i.e., survey methodologies). The organization also conducts long-term planning for improving statistical programs, reviews survey plans, and evaluates the statistical programs and activities of other agencies.
In Japan, statistical coordination requires approval, auditing and budget pre-approval. The Statistics Bureau under the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications approves statistical production for designated surveys in accordance with statistics law. Unapproved statistical activities must be reported to the bureau before production. In addition, the bureau plays a statistical coordination role through pre-approval of the statistical budget.
In the Republic of Korea, KOSTAT receives a statistical budget plan from each ministry. It reviews the statistical activities of each agency and submits the results to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance. The ministry then appropriates statistical budget for the following year based on KOSTAT’s recommendations.
2.2.3.2. Civil Registration
In every country, the civil registration system serves as the foundation for population statistics. The system’s importance is comparable to how critical it is for a family to account for its members. Myanmar has the legislative grounds for a civil registration system, but registered births and deaths merely account for about half of the real figures.15) Underreporting contributes to lack of awareness among the general public on the importance of reporting vital events to authorities to have them reflected in official data. Improvement of the civil registration system is thus urgently needed.
Myanmar per its 1982 Citizenship Law classifies three categories of citizens: full, associate and naturalized. Under this law, citizens are obliged to obtain a national
15) About 40% of births and 60% of deaths in Myanmar were underreported.(MNPED, 2015).
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 131 registration card (NRC), and non-citizens a foreign registration card (FRC).16)
Myanmar’s a stratified citizenship system per the Citizenship Law is based on how one’s forebears obtained it.
• Full citizens are descendants of residents who lived in Burma prior to 1823 or were born to parents who were citizens at the time of birth. • Associate citizens are those acquired citizenship through the Union Citizenship Law of 1948. • Naturalized citizens are those who lived in Burma before Jan. 4, 1948, and applied for citizenship after 1982.
A. Civil Registration System
Civil registration theoretically covers a wide range of topics like birth, marriage, adoption, divorce and death. The Myanmar Vital Registration System (MVRS) merely covers the live birth, stillbirth, maternal death and death.
The CSO runs the MVRS in collaboration with the Department of Health (DOH) by using eight types of vital registration forms17) for the country. The system runs on the “principle of occurrence”, implying that birth and death should be registered at the places where they occurred.
The CSO is primarily responsible for keeping, data processing, computing, producing and publishing records on vital statistics. Birth information forms are sent by the DOH to the CSO for statistical reporting and data are discarded after the statistical yearbook is published. The MVRS database is administered by the CSO and access to it is limited to available users for authorized purposes.
The main obstacles in improving the MVRS are lack of awareness on registration, as this causes underreporting, and lack of a proper reporting mechanism.
B. Issues
To produce vital statistics in Myanmar, the CSO collects birth and death registrations with the help of DOH records. In this context, the CSO needs to build an integrated and comprehensive system of statistics.
16) Myanmar nationality law provided by Myanmar expert, Nyo Nyo San. 17) 1) Birth information form, 2) Death information form, 3) Birth register, 4) Death register, 5) Birth certificate, 6) Stillbirth certificate, 7) Death certificate, and 8) Burial certificate.
132 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 133 A national statistical mechanism or arrangement is needed to standardize concepts, definitions, methodologies and classifications, ensure coordination of statistical cooperation, eliminate duplication of statistical work, harmonize results and improve data dissemination.
2.2.3.3. Business Registration
In every country, businesses that open or close must register such events with the relevant authorities. This procedure is integral to the government for tax purposes as well as from a government perspective in designing pro-business policy. Instead of collecting data on businesses exclusively for statistical purposes, a far more efficient option is for businesses to jointly report events for both tax and statistical purposes.
The administrative system in Myanmar has many weaknesses but is gradually improving. The following is a summary of the country’s business registration system.18)
The CSO is trying to collect information for business registration from various departments for establishing the Statistical Business Registration (SBR) system. The Directorate of Industrial Supervision and Inspection (DISI), Department of Labor, Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA), and the city development committees of Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw are responsible for registration of businesses in Myanmar. The CSO conducts close cooperation with these departments to provide their administrative records on business registration for use in the forthcoming system. The statistical authority is also in the starting stage of gathering information from these departments with technical assistance from the UNDP.
DICA maintains the business registration of large companies. Renewal of a business license is required every five years. All manufacturing businesses need to register with DISI under the Ministry of Industry. Also, most businesses large or small need to register with the city development committees in Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw. The number of business licenses changes every year.
These business registration systems are not for statistics or tax but for industrial policy only. Because the systems are made for regional or industrial policy, statistics using this data can sometimes be duplicated. Furthermore, the definition of terms should be checked and standardized. And then databases should be linked to each other to send raw data to statistics-compiling agencies.
18) Extracted from documents provided by Myanmar expert Nyo Nyo San.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 133 2.2.4. Operational Improvement
2.2.4.1. Design and Implementation of National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS)
Since the importance of statistics is indisputable, the CSO, as the country’s statistical authority, should devise and implement a national strategy for statistical development.19) As Myanmar is transitioning from a planned to market economy, this strategy is even more critical and should cover the following key items:
• Long-term policy objectives and implementation strategy for national statistical development; • Key projects and how to implement them with a timeline; • Budget required and how to secure it.
The CSO’s chief statistician shall inform relevant agencies of the NSDS and monitor its implementation by agencies. Then he or she shall report the outcome to the Committee for Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics. The new statistics law will give the committee and the chief statistician much more authority to carry out their functions. This will provide the CSO the institutional support it needs to effectively coordinate the statistical activities of line ministries, thereby contributing to national statistical development.
2.2.4.2. Governance on Statistics
One of the most important lessons for developing economies learned from the Republic of Korea’s development of a National Statistical System (NSS) is the dynamic reform that followed.
While many factors contributed to making the Republic of Korea’s NSS more dynamic, the most critical factor was the leadership of KOSTAT. The latter is actively developing and improving official statistics by forecasting statistical demand in accordance with the changes the country has undergone.
Another important factor was maintenance of communication with outside experts. KOSTAT continued to explore and maintain communication channels with experts from fields such as IT, data, public administration, organization and regulation. In doing so, KOSTAT gained wide-ranging information on reforming its NSS such as organizational innovation and institutional development.
19) In the Republic of Korea, Article 5(4) in the Statistics Act empowers the head of KOSTAT to set a strategy for national statistical development.
134 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 135 The CSO should assume stronger and more decisive leadership by benchmarking the case study of the Republic of Korea, strengthen communication with outside experts and actively respond to changes. More attention should also go to training specialists and promoting e-Government initiatives.
2.2.4.3. Harmonization of Aid Agencies
As a developing economy still shifting toward a market economy, Myanmar has had many international organizations offering generous support for economic development and technical assistance for statistical development. For harmonization of donor activities among aid agencies, the CSO has held several times a year meetings of statistical sectoral working groups with development partners. While these efforts are encouraging, one recommendation is that the exchange of comments among such partners continues to prevent duplication or omission of assistance in a specific field of statistics for long-term national development of statistics.
• Statistics Law and NSS, National accounts, education statistics: ADB • Setup of statistical database and computer training facility: KOICA • Price statistics: IMF, UNDP • Standard classifications: World Bank • Agriculture and fisheries statistics, food security: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • Population census: United Nations Fund for Population (UNFPA) • Social and vital statistics: United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) • Health statistics: Bloomberg, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade • Domestic commerce and international trade statistics: European Union (EU), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) • Survey method and publishing results: Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)
With many international partners taking part in the improvement of the statistical system and quality of Myanmar, this report studied creative functions focusing on survey methodologies through strengthening the CSO’s role and status. As such, this project has no overlap with international assistance programs.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 135 2.2.4.4. Assessment of Statistical Demand and Standardization of Statistical Process
The rise of the demand-oriented, as opposed to supply-oriented, society has made the analysis of data user needs more important. The Generic Statistics Business Process Model (GSBPM)20) makes specification of data user needs a fundamental step in the statistical business process. Recommended by the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the model is an internationally accepted benchmark to encourage the production of statistics through a standardized process. In other words, the GSBPM describes and defines the set of statistical business processes needed to produce official statistics. Its standard framework and harmonized terminology help statistical agencies modernize their statistical compilation processes, as well as share methods and components. UNECE said, “The GSBPM can also be used for managing data and metadata standards, as a template for process documentation, harmonizing statistical computing infrastructures, and to provide a framework for process quality assessment and improvement. The GSBPM can be used as a standard model for all statistics-producing agencies and aims to achieve statistical modernization”.
The recommendation is to apply the GSBPM flexibly. The model is not a strict framework in which all steps should be followed in a rigid order; instead it regulates the possible steps under a statistical business process, and inter-dependencies among them.21) Though the presentation of the GSBPM follows a logical sequence of steps in statistical business processes, the model’s elements can occur in varying orders in every circumstance. Certain sub-processes will also be revisited many times to form iterative loops, especially within the process and analysis phases. The GSBPM looks like a complicated matrix because of numerous paths. In this way, the model seems sufficiently generic to be widely applicable and encourages a standardized view of the statistical business process without getting too restrictive, abstract and theoretical.
The National Institute of Statistics of Italy explains the GSBPM through its three levels22):
• Level 0 : statistical business process; • Level 1 : eight phases of the statistical business process; • Level 2 : sub-processes within each phase.
The GSBPM is intended for application to all activities undertaken by official statistical agencies both domestic and international. It is designed to be separate
20) Created by Therese Lalor, last modified by Chris Jones in January 2017. 21) Generic Statistical Business Process Model, National Institute of Statistics of Italy. 22) Ibid.
136 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 137 from data sources, so it can be used for the description and qualitative assessment of processes based on surveys, administrative records and other data sources.
[Figure 2-4] Generic Statistical Business Process Model 5.0
Process Quality Management / Metadata Management
Phases Specify Needs Design Build Collect Process Analyse Dissminate Evaluate
Sub- Identify Design Build Create frame Integrate Prepare Update Gather processes needs outputs collection & data draft output evaluation (descriptions) instrument select sample outputs systems inputs
Build or Consult Design variable enhance Set up Classify Validate Produce Conduct & descriptions process collection & outputs dissemination evaluation confirm needs components code products
Build or Manage Establish Design enhance Review Interpret release of Agree an output collection dissemination Run collection & validate & explain dissemination action plan objectives components Outputs products
Design Apply Promote Identify frame Configure Finalize Edit & impute disclosure dissemination concepts & sample workflows colletion control products
Design Test Derive new Manage Check data processing production variables Finalize user availability & analysis system & units output support
Design Test Prepare production statistical Calculate business systems business weights case & workflow process
Finalize production Calculate system aggregates
Finalize data files
Source: http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/GSBPM/Generic+Statistical+Business+Process+Model.
2.2.4.5. Statistical Quality Assessment (Long-term Task)
Quality improvement of national statistics ultimately requires a quality assessment system for official statistics. Such a system evaluates whether all statistical business processes (such as production and dissemination of statistical products) and related methods have been fully conducted. The need for this system arises once major progress is seen in the development of official statistics. This system thus can be designed as a long-term task.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 137 For reference, the following is a summary of the Republic of Korea’s statistical quality assessment system,23) which is ISO 9001 certified and globally known.
A. Definition of Statistical Quality
The concept of statistical quality varies by country or depends on regional context. It also reflects changing times. Traditionally, statistics of good quality are said to have “accuracy and timeliness”. In the modern context, however, the concept of quality has shifted its focus to satisfying data users.
B. Dimensions of Statistical Quality
While statistical organizations worldwide have not yet reached standardized dimensions of statistical quality, similar patterns are generally shown across countries and international organizations.
Statistical Authority’s Dimensions of Statistical QualityKorea Canada Australia Netherlands IMF Eurostat OECD
Accuracy/ Accuracy Accuracy Accuracy Accuracy Accuracy Accuracy Reliability
Timeliness/ Timeliness/ Timeliness Timeliness Timeliness Timeliness Timeliness Punctuality Punctuality
Relevance Relevance Relevance Relevance Relevance Relevance Relevance
Accessibility/ Cost Accessibility/ Accessibility Accessibility Accessibility Accessibility Clarity effectiveness Clarity
Minimize Response Methodological Coherence Coherence Coherence Coherence revision size burden integrity
Comparability Interpretability Coverage Comparability Comparability Interpretability
Completeness Reliability
Source: Statistics Korea (2016), “National Statistical Quality Assessment Manual." [in Korean]
As described above, the dimensions of statistical quality differ across organizations. Their implementation must also be slightly adjusted based on the statistical method (i.e., complete enumeration or sample survey and administrative or derived statistics).
23) Statistics Korea (2016).
138 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 139
The accuracy of statistical information means the degree to which information describes the phenomena that the former was designed to measure.
The timeliness of statistical information refers to the gap between the reference point (or end of the reference period) to which the information pertains and the time at which the information becomes available. Punctuality refers to a possible time lag existing between the real delivery time of data and the target time when it could have been delivered.
The relevance of statistical information indicates the degree to which it satisfies real user needs.
Accessibility to statistical information refers to how easily such data are obtained from a statistical agency. Clarity refers to the degree of transparency in data production and the information environment of the data.
Coherence of statistical information reflects the degree to which such data can be brought together with other information under a broad framework and over time.
Comparability reflects the degree to which statistics can be compared to other statistics or if a comparison of statistics is possible over time. Statistics with a different time or space will have higher comparability if data are collected using harmonized concepts, classifications, measurement tools and processes, and basic data.
C. Quality Assessment Workflow
Quality assessment of official statistics follows the workflow shown below from the planning to feedback phase.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 139 [Figure 2-5] Quality Assessment Workflow
ㆍCheck if agency has completed Statistics information Report. Prepare for ㆍIf not completed, make a request to the agency to complete it and provide assessment 01 necessary training to prepare the report.
ㆍConduct quantitative and qualitative evaluation on each quality indicator based on the report. Run ㆍReview assessment details with agency visit(at least once) and ask agency to assessment make necessary adjustment to the report. ㆍConduct evaluation on each quality indicator(by dimension of quality and 02 by statistical business process) based on revised report.
Analyze ㆍAnalyze evaluation results. 03 results ㆍDetermine problematic areas and identify what needs to be improved.
Provide ㆍNotify agency of final evaluation results and scores. 04 feedback
Note: Statistical Information Report means brief descriptive information about statistical process. Source: Statistics Korea (2016), “National Statistical Quality Assessment Manual (in Korean)”.
D. Quality Assessment Agencies
KOSTAT has entrusted the statistical quality assessment described above to the Korea Statistics Promotion Institute (KSPI). The KSPI conducts a quality assessment every year. In 2017, it will get 40 experts to evaluate 80 statistical products of 50 statistics-producing agencies. Each expert will be assigned two statistical products of a similar nature and evaluate one in the fi rst half of the year and the other in the second.
140 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 141 [Figure 2-6] Quality Assessment Agencies & Work Structure
KOSTAT
Provide support on preparing Coordinate work Statistics Information Report Provide support Coordinate work
Statistics KSPI & Experts Producing Agencies
Provide support on preparing Statistics Information Report Request/Submit documents for quality assessment
Source: Statistics Korea (2016), “National Statistical Quality Assessment Manual." [in Korean]
2.2.4.6. Statistics-based Policy Evaluation (Long-term Task)
A. Overview
According to the Statistics Act of the Republic of Korea, the head of a central government agency, when planning to devise new policy or amend an existing one by enacting and revising legislation, shall request an evaluation from the KOSTAT commissioner on the availability of statistical indicators necessary to support policy implementation and evaluation. The exclusion applies to the implementation of national security, the legal system and criminal justice.
Under such request, the commissioner shall evaluate whether the relevant policy is grounded in statistics and notify the statistics-producing agency with an evaluation on the availability of statistical indicators necessary to support the implementation and evaluation of policy and feasibility of related statistical development and an improvement plan.
Moreover, the agency head must attach the aforementioned comments from the commissioner when submitting the legislation to a cabinet meeting.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 141 B. Major Criteria for Evaluation
KOSTAT prepares its evaluation report based on the following criteria:
• Are all statistical indicators proposed for each policy? • If the statistical indicator is inadequate, is there an alternative indicator? • Is there a sufficient system to produce reliable and stable indicators? • Is there a plan to develop or improve statistics? • Is there any overlap with existing statistics? • If statistics are to be improved or developed by another agency, has an agreement been sufficiently reached with that agency?
C. Evaluation Process
• Request pre-evaluation: agency submits pre-evaluation application to KOSTAT • Conduct pre-valuation and notify results: process and notify results within 10 days of receiving application • File appeal and conduct re-evaluation: within seven days of receiving pre- evaluation results • Request main evaluation: within 15 days of receiving pre-evaluation results • Conduct main evaluation and notify results: until pre-announcement of enactment expires • Make appeal and conduct re-evaluation: within seven days of receiving evaluation results • Take action on evaluation outcomes: relevant legislation submitted with KOSTAT commissioner’s comments to cabinet meeting
As discussed here, all policies are based on statistics. This means that a line ministry planning to devise a policy must undergo an evaluation process led by the head of the national statistical authority to determine what statistical matters are required. This is a canonical example of evidence-based policymaking in practice.
2.2.4.7. Raising Public Awareness of Statistics (Long-term Task)
Due to its developing economy, Myanmar is still fighting poverty. Ordinary citizens of Myanmar lack awareness of statistics and are thus reluctant to cooperate in surveys. Statistics in the country are not widely used. The CSO must thus take the leading role in raising national awareness of statistics.
142 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 143 For this initiative, the public must know that all decision making needs to follow a scientific method based on statistics and that statistics are needed in all processes from planning to evaluation.
Whenever the government releases statistical results, they must be widely disseminated through media channels. The people must know the critical role of respondents. If budget allows, a competition run by the CSO to promote the use of statistics is one option to raise public awareness of statistics. Britain, Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other advanced economies hold national statistical competitions for students every year. The International Statistical Literacy Project (ISLP) under the International Statistical Institute (ISI) receives outstanding work from such competitions worldwide and holds a biennial international competition to promote statistical literacy.
2.2.4.8. Professional Development of Statistical Personnel
As a developing nation, Myanmar suffers from a lack of expertise among its statistical workforce. New and existing employees require short-term training taught by statistical experts or professors, but training in practical statistical operations is lacking. So systematic training programs should be developed and differentiated by years of experience, statistical stage (survey planning, sampling, data collection, editing, imputation, processing, analyzing, reporting and publishing) and statistical field (industry, demographics, labor, income and expenditures, price and welfare).
KOICA recently set up a computer training facility within the CSO. While the facility is seeing good use and the outcome is encouraging, institutional support from the Myanmar government is also crucial so that more statistical personnel can gain access to professional training.
Another recommendation is for Myanmar to take full advantage of foreign assistance to get theoretical and practical statistical training abroad.
2.2.5. Improvement of Survey Methodologies
2.2.5.1. Improvement of Existing Methods of Data Collection
The most traditional method of collecting raw data is the face-to-face interview in which the interviewer asks questions to the subject and records the responses. The ever-increasing complexities of today’s society and growing privacy concerns, however, have made this method more difficult to pursue. Making things worse is the rise in the number of households with working couples, giving them little time for interviews. And outdated infrastructure in transportation and communications in Myanmar hinders the process of visiting subjects.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 143 The first course of action in resolving these problems is improvement of social overhead capital such as transportation and communication infrastructure and raising the public image of the importance of statistics. When publishing statistical results, the government should proactively disseminate them to the public through media channels. Results should be published not only with simple numerical information, but have cross-regional and national comparison information to build statistical literacy and awareness among the people.
2.2.5.2. Use of New Methods of IT-based Data Collection
Shifting away from the traditional data collecting on methods and utilizing emerging techniques in ICT will allow more convenient and scientific methods of data collection. The science and technology revolution has brought about a rapid evolution of computers and digital technologies that have fostered new statistical methods. The advancement of computers has also brought on a revolution in statistical administration such as survey planning, questionnaire design, training, sampling, data input, editing, processing and distribution.
Especially in surveys, more convenient and scientific methods of data collection are emerging such as CASI24), CAPI25) and CATI.26) Palm-sized netbooks are instrumental when visiting a crowded marketplace to collect information when doing a price survey. With a netbook, an interviewer can look up lists of subjects, variables (i.e., product and size) and other information such as previously recorded data, the national average, or the highest and lowest prices. The device also provides added convenience and timeliness by allowing an interviewer to directly submit data to the statistical agency’s headquarters instead of having to return to the office to manually input data into computers.
The drawback to these pieces of equipment is their high prices that require a significant amount of budget. Furthermore, the simultaneous purchase of equipment for all interviewers in Myanmar will require the government’s full financial commitment and support.
2.2.5.3. Administrative Data-based Data Collection
The rising trend of protecting individual privacy and business secrets has made data collection in surveys for statistical purposes increasingly difficult. Thus innovation
24) Computer-assisted self-interview: The interviewer and respondent need not meet in person; the latter enters raw data into a pre-installed application on a computer and submits responses to a statistical agency. 25) Computer-assisted personal interview: The interviewer and respondent meet in person; questions appear on a notebook computer and the respondent records his or her responses into the computer. 26) Computer-assisted phone interview: The interviewer calls the respondent to ask questions and the respondent’s answers are automatically recorded in the program.
144 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 145 in the data collection process is needed to raise the response ratio in the field and reduce costs. The goal is to transform statistical administration into a low-cost and highly efficient system. This initiative requires the use of administrative records. With the rapid development of science and technology, especially computers, statistical production is possible by collecting and processing the information that each line ministry collects and keeps for administrative use.
Using administrative records from other agencies can significantly save time and lower the cost of data collection and processing, while ensuring data accuracy and quality. The use of administrative records for statistical purposes is an example of a cost-saving but efficient means of public administration, a direction strongly recommended by the U.N. This modern practice is common worldwide.
Despite the advantages of using administrative records for statistical purposes, this method can fan resistance from the agencies possessing such records primarily over privacy concerns of individuals and the threat of breaching business confidentiality. Thus, individual privacy and business confidentiality must be fully protected by law as well as through sound technical measures.
In the Republic of Korea, its 2015 population census was based on registration. KOSTAT also uses data from the National Tax Service for statistical production.
Myanmar is also apparently entering a stage in which the use of administrative records should be considered in its planning of a population or industrial census. Since institutional measures for civil registration27) as well as taxation28) have been established through laws and provisions, the country could benefit from using even a few of its administrative records for statistical purposes.
The key requirement in using administrative records for statistical purposes is match keys for linking multiple administrative records. For example, a match key such as address or individual or business name that can match variables with administrative records must be decided on first. Once a match key is set, then various datasets can be linked together. In the Republic of Korea, everyone is assigned a national ID number called the resident identification number (RIN). RIN can be used to look up almost any information on a person such as date of birth, gender, registered address, family relations, address history, entry and exit records, financial transactions, education, military obligations, assets, income, credit card use, insurance, hospital visits, voter registration and criminal record. Personal information is strictly protected unless stipulated by law or with the person’s consent.29)
27) Myanmar nationality law. 28) The Income Tax Law (1974), The Commercial Tax Law (1990). 29) Per Article 15 of the Privacy Act.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 145 When using match keys to link multiple records, variable and administrative records need a congruent conceptual definition. In reality, however, agencies have varying administrative objectives so the concepts used in administrative records can differ across agencies. This means the terminology used in administrative records by government agencies must be standardized. In the Republic of Korea, its 2015 population census could be done as one based on registration30) because RIN was the match key that standardized multiple administrative records. Furthermore, KOSTAT can get tax records from the National Tax Service per provisions in the Statistics Act.31) Tax records have been used for statistical purposes in the country’s economic census, like in preparing a list of subjects in the population frame or determining the real sales revenue of each business. The privacy of taxpayers’ personal information must be strictly protected in this process, so only a few KOSTAT staff can log into a secure administrative network to access tax records.32)
A few prerequisites are needed to achieve this type of innovation. First, all relevant datasets must be stored in database systems and IT systems are needed to support data transfers between database systems. Thus the statistical use of administrative records can start with the sharing of more easily accessible data among line ministries. The administrative records of other statistics-producing agencies can be used once database systems are set up and connected to the network. For ministries to share their administrative records, an e-Government must be fully established and technical issues have to be resolved. This long-term process in Myanmar is expected to take a significant amount of time.
30) The registration-based census has been conducted in Denmark (1981), Finland (1990), Norway (2011), Sweden (2011), Germany (2011), Singapore (2000), the Republic of Korea (2015) and the Netherlands (2001). 31) Article 24 and 25 of the Statistics Act of the Republic of Korea stipulate that if necessary for the collection of statistics, a request can be made to the head of a public agency to supply administrative records, and barring a reasonable cause not to do so, the head must comply and supply the requested data. 32) Article 33 of the Statistics Act of the Republic of Korea has provisions on the protection of secret information.
146 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 147 3. Korea’s Experience in Statistical Development
3.1. Korea’s Experience in Official Statistics Development
3.1.1. Periodization of Statistical Activities
Varying perspectives can offer differing results in determining the phases of the nation’s statistical development per historical era. In a recent KOSTAT report, the periodization of the country’s statistical history is described as below.
3.1.1.1. Ancient Times (-1890)
• Poor statistical structure under king • Few sample surveys • Data collected for military and tax purposes: population (birth, death, gender and age), servant population, households, horses, land, rice production, mulberry • Statistics considered national secret
3.1.1.2. Emergence of Modern Statistics (1890-1945)
• Introduction of modern statistical system • First population census in 1923 • Standardization of measures (i.e., distance, area, volume and weight) • Japanese colonial rule • Statistical yearbook • Development of land survey and agricultural statistics • Population of people age 15 and older: 81% illiterate, 0.05% college graduates (1944)
3.1.1.3. Beginning of Korean Statistics (1945-1948)
• Liberation from Japanese rule after World War II • Country divided into North (USSR) and South Korea (US military government) • Statistics Office under General Affairs Department with 800 personnel: compiled population, labor and price statistics • Incomplete resident (civil) registration system
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 147 • Population survey mainly for distribution of daily necessities and election purposes • Reform of school system • Poor transportation and communication infrastructure
3.1.1.4. Establishment of Government and Korean War (1948-1960)
• Establishment of Republic of Korea in 1948 • Statistics for enlightenment of people (Statistics Office under Public Information Department) • Development of statistical yearbook, monthly statistics report, and tax and trade statistics • Collection of data for national recovery from Korean War (1950-53) -- Bureau of Statistics under Ministry of Interior (253 personnel) • American aid of agricultural products for processing: wheat flour, sugar and cotton • Statistical consulting provided by American experts • Decentralized statistical system -- Statistics Bureau: basic statistics (i.e., population) -- Bank of Korea (central bank): economic statistics (i.e., finance, monetary, price and national income) • Setting of central sample survey unit • Establishment of data processing center • Strengthening of agricultural statistics unit • Bolstering statistical coordination authority • Enactment of Statistics Act • Streamlining and improving statistical training
3.1.1.5. Economic Development Planning (1960s-early 80s)
• Supply basic data for economic development policy -- Statistics Bureau under Economic Planning Board: 118 personnel in 1963, 809 in 1980 • Enactment of Statistics Act (1962) • Formation of Statistical Council (1962)
148 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 149 • Standard classifications: industry, occupation, trade, disease and cause of death • First agricultural census (1961) • Statistical organization reflecting changes: agriculture industrialization • Emergence of computers
3.1.1.6. Advancement of Statistics (early 1980s-early 2000s)
• Paradigm shift in statistics: data producer-oriented user-oriented -- Diversified, information-based and globalized society • Devised Statistics Development Plan as part of National Economic Development Plan (1987-91) • Boosted statistical system by setting up Korea National Statistical Office (now Statistics Korea) and Statistical Training Institute in 1990 -- 1,122 personnel by late 1990s • Dissemination of PCs for office use • Joined IMF SDDS
3.1.1.7. A Statistically Advanced Nation (early 2000s-present)
• Rapidly aging and social welfare society expansion of welfare statistics • Streamlined national statistical infrastructure (KOSTAT head promoted to rank of vice minister) -- Expanded the number of personnel to 3,033 (2015) -- Statistical quality control -- Statistics-based policy evaluation system -- Integrated National Statistical Database Service (2011) • Realization of advanced statistics -- Establishment of fundamental principles of official statistics: neutrality, reliability, efficiency, comparability, confidentiality, infrastructure building, user participation, enhanced service -- Fostering of statistical personnel -- Advance release calendar (2001) -- International statistical cooperation (i.e., ISI) -- Diversification of survey methodologies: email, CASI, CAPI, internet, use of administrative data, satellite images -- First registration-based population census (2015)
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 149 Thus as seen above, a central authority has supervised statistics in the Republic of Korea, though the body belonged to a number of government agencies depending on period. The role of such an authority has evolved over time in response to the changing demands of society, and this has enabled the development and dissemination of official statistics with timeliness.
3.2. Evaluation of Statistical Development in Korea
Official statistics in the Republic of Korea have earned accolades from international organizations. KOSTAT is also an active participant in the global statistical community. With the International Statistical Institute’s biennial meeting held in Seoul in 2001, the country hosts international statistical events several times a year. These efforts have increased the nation’s reputation in advanced statistics and expanded its influence in the field.
3.2.1. Success of Korea Statistics
3.2.1.1. External Factors
A. NSO Moved across Departments over Nation’s History
Over the years, the National Statistical Organization (NSO) was moved from a number of government bodies based on the progress of national development and changes in era. Basically, official statistics stayed on the same track with the overall progress of economic, social and cultural development. The development of statistics moved together with major events in the country’s history and social progress.
When World War II ended in 1945, the Korean Peninsula gained independence from Japan and US military occupation ensued. At the time, the US military government supervised statistics, beginning with collection of the most fundamental and urgently needed information: population statistics. A few years later, after the Republic of Korean government was established, the failure to cover all subjects and the presence of gaps in many areas drew attention. Furthermore, the people lacked awareness of the government’s functions and roles, meaning public authorities were pressed for time to assess these gaps while promoting the government to the public. Statistical functions were thus assigned to the Statistics Office under the Public Information Department.
The Korean Peninsula was divided into South and North Korea after the Korean War (1950-53) devastated the country. Recovery of damaged land required nationwide assessment. Official statistical operations were thus assigned to the
150 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 151 Ministry of Interior because it had the most complete organization and personnel among government ministries.
While an underdeveloped economy, the nation was hit by a military coup in 1961. The new government headed by President Park Chung-hee set its priorities on and invested all of its efforts into economic development. At the time, the Statistics Bureau was moved to the Economic Planning Board (EPB) since data collection was integral to providing the information needed in devising economic policy.
B. Economic Crisis and Reform of Statistical System
In late 1997, the Asian financial crisis hit the Republic of Korea hard, and the nation eventually received a bailout from the IMF, which demanded thorough restructuring of the economy as compensation. This crisis was unprecedented and shocking, as the Republic of Korea faced the threat of national bankruptcy, slower economic growth, liquidation of major companies and skyrocketing unemployment. The nation overcame this cataclysmic event after enduring painful times, but the crisis left a lasting impact on the both the economy and statistical organizations.
The IMF said the Asian financial crisis might have been provoked by poor statistical information. In 2001, an IMF team was sent to the Republic of Korea to inspect its official statistical system. This action highlighted the importance of statistics and recommended accurate and reliable production of facts and figures.
In the 2000s, the national statistical system saw dramatic change, the biggest being the strengthening of the centralized statistical system. Though the government adopted the decentralized statistical system, the latter had more characteristics of a centralized statistical system than in countries that used the decentralized statistical system such as the US and Japan. The NSO (now KOSTAT), merged with the statistical office of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, was at the time just as big as KOSTAT. Through the introduction of a statistical quality assessment program, stronger statistical coordination and inclusion of the sponsored survey system, KOSTAT bolstered its leadership and position as the country’s central statistical authority.33)
C. Independent Agency with Authority over Its Activities
The National Bureau of Statistics, which was set up in the early stage of the Republic of Korea’s economic development, functioned as an independent department of the EPB. The bureau was given independent authority with a larger
33) Hwang Dae Kim et al. (2014), Modularization of Korea’s Development Experiences: Development of Korean Statistical System.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 151 number of staff. These measures allowed for the expansion and development of economic statistics in the country.
In 1990, as part of a national strategy for statistical development included in the national plan for economic development, the bureau was promoted to higher status and renamed the NSO. Its head was promoted to the rank of vice minister. The NSO was renamed in 2009 to Statistics Korea and has maintained its independence as the nation’s central statistical authority.
3.2.1.2. Internal Factors
As previously mentioned, official statistics in the Republic of Korea have progressed at the same pace as national economic development. The key factor behind this coupled development appears to be a policy aimed at producing statistics tailored for data users. To understand what information needs are, KOSTAT sends statistical demand questionnaires to line ministries and research organizations multiple times a year and reflects the results in statistical programs. As the nation’s statistical authority, KOSTAT exercises its coordination power to conduct statistical demand assessments. The results are then subject to an internal review at KOSTAT, which then develops new statistics or improves existing ones if deemed appropriate; any overlapping or duplicate statistics are excluded. Statistics KOSTAT needs to produce are developed or improved by itself. But for data requiring specific expertise or are of interest to other agencies, KOSTAT will advise the relevant agency to develop or improve such statistics.
KOSTAT also has the authority to review and comment on the statistical budget of a public agency. Any budget for an agency’s statistical activities will be reviewed by KOSTAT first, then is submitted to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance with comments from KOSTAT.34) If the budget for a statistical program is either excessively insufficient or excessive, KOSTAT’s coordination activities are crucial in this case.
3.2.2. Failure of Official Statistics
Between the 1960s and 80s, when the Republic of Korea was experiencing rapid economic growth, inflation took off just as quickly. The rise in consumer prices was so high that the government was forced to step in. In a consumer price survey, the price of a given product in its standard size was collected. The government thus wanted to control the standard size. For example, when collecting cigarette prices, they did not collect the prices of all available product sizes but only the selected one. This enables the government to control the price of the sampled size while more expensive cigarettes could be sold in varying quantities. In other words, consumers were buying
34) Guidelines for Budget Planning, Budget Office, Ministry of Strategy and Finance.
152 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 153 expensive cigarettes but the survey only counted the price of a product with a size under government control. Thus statistics did not reflect inflation. The country at times kept consumer prices lower than real prices using these data manipulation programs.
This was a case study of failure in the nation’s official statistical development. The main statistical agency has since kept its list of items on its sample price survey confidential. And the Statistics Act has strengthened the confidentiality of statistics as a crucial element of statistical policy.
3.2.3. Implications
A National Statistical System (NSS) is critical for a country. National consensus must be reached that recognizes the statistical foundation for national development, and an NSS must be built based on those firm beliefs. Another critical component for statistical success is strong leadership by the head of the statistical authority. For Myanmar, the Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics, as described in the country’s statistics law, is recommended to take an active role in the statistical coordination of line ministries.
In the Republic of Korea, the national statistical system was founded and developed into a decentralized type while the country was under American military occupation after the end of World War II. The American system was benchmarked based on a report provided by an American statistical expert.35) Afterwards, economic development was considered the nation’s most critical and urgent task. The National Bureau of Statistics, whose independence was guaranteed, continued conducting statistical demand surveys to respond to data needs and strived to develop statistics to that end. In addition, the National Statistics Committee began to take an active role in statistical coordination by reviewing and approving statistical activities, including those of line ministries. Furthermore, KOSTAT gained the duty of reviewing statistics-related budgets and policies of all public agencies, and this will help advance the country and national statistical policy.
Likewise, Myanmar can learn from the Republic of Korea’s experience in statistical development and navigate its own path in that field. Through the newly strengthened statistics law, the CSO can reach a consensus within the union government for national statistical advancement and build a strong foundation for its statistical coordination authority.
35) Stuart A. Rice, President of Surveys & Research Corporation for the Statistical Advisory Group.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 153 4. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
4.1. Summary of Main Points
4.1.1. Statistics and Policy
Modern public administration, which can be referred to as policymaking based on empirical proof, puts strong emphasis on evidence, namely statistics. So statistics have emerged as the most effective tools for understanding the past and present and planning for the future; they can also resolve conflicts. Government’s role in the 21st century, with higher demand for social welfare, is constantly increasing and public policy now requires more precision and detail. Consequently, government agencies are finding it more important to use statistics in devising and evaluating policy.
The statistics-based policy evaluation system in the Republic of Korea is an outstanding example of how closely policy and data are related. The commitment and responsibilities of data producers are constantly rising given user need for statistics.
4.1.2. Myanmar’s Statistical Activities - Status, Problems and Strategic Direction
Myanmar’s statistical system is decentralized, meaning the CSO’s coordination function is critical. Yet this function is rather weak and makes the pursuit of national statistical development more difficult. This is because each line ministry conducts its own data collection through its regional offices, and data reliability is often poor.
First and foremost, the top priority for resolving these problems is strengthen ing the CSO’s authority. Given that the NLD-led government is extensively revising domestic statistics law, the revision will bolster the role of the Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics. Moreover, the formation of working-level subcommittees will help implement and monitor the committee’s decisions. These will offer a good opportunity for the CSO to have its role and status boosted.
In this respect, the CSO’s primary role is to first standardize statistical terminology and concepts. This can be done by complying with all types of standard classifications recommended by international organizations such as the U.N., ILO and OECD.
Second, the CSO must gain stronger authority to coordinate the statistical activities of agencies including line ministries. To this end, the designation of statistics-producing agencies and approval of statistical output are suggested.
154 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 155 Designation of a statistical producer is the highest authority given to the CSO. Also, when a designated statistical agency intends to produce new official statistics, it must obtain CSO approval. The statistical authority determines whether the description of statistics will be valuable as new official statistics.
On the methods and procedures for statistical production, statistics-producing agencies should follow the Generic Statistical Business Process Model (GSBPM) as recommended by the UNECE. The CSO must assess user needs through statistical demand surveys and take appropriate actions such as ordering relevant agencies to produce data on demand. In this context, all processes of statistical activities should follow the GSBPM to produce statistics through a standardized process. Also, the CSO should eventually adopt the statistical quality assessment and statistics-based policy evaluation.
Furthermore, the CSO should have the authority to review and comment on the statistical budgets of line ministries.
Another need is improvement of the collection method for raw data. In the traditional method of data collection, an interviewer holds a session with a respondent in person and writes down responses. Given growing concerns over privacy, however, the conditions for conducting surveys have greatly deteriorated, thus new survey methodologies are needed. The following are examples of survey techniques that Myanmar could gradually adopt:
• Observation: weather and agricultural statistics; • In-person interviews: surveys of price, labor and population; • Mail: survey of establishments; • Administrative records: obtain administrative data on population and economy from government agencies.
4.1.3. Republic of Korea’s Economic Development and Statistics Advancement
The Republic of Korea is one of the world’s best case studies of economic development. The nation gained independence after World War II but was plunged into the horrific Korean War. After the war, aid from other countries and international organizations eventually helped propel the nation’s impressive economic development. It remains the only country to turn into an aid donor after being a recipient.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 155 The national statistical system was heavily influenced by American experts and adopted the decentralized statistical system based on the US model. The country’s main statistical authority was moved across a range of governmental bodies over the nation’s history, and this can be evaluated as being quite effective. Statistics Korea, aka KOSTAT, is guaranteed a high degree of independence. By conducting periodic surveys of statistical demand, it produced and disseminated statistics in a timely manner to accommodate the information needs of users. Lastly, the statistical quality evaluation system has greatly boosted the reliability of official statistics.
4.2. Policy Implications and Conclusion
4.2.1. Strengthening Statistical Coordination Activities
The statistical system of Myanmar, from a legal perspective, shares similarities with that of the Republic of Korea but vastly differs in statistical activities. Both countries use a decentralized statistical structure. While the Republic of Korea’s statistical activities strive for the advancement of national statistics backed by a strong and autonomous authority (KOSTAT) for statistical coordination, the CSO of Myanmar has a comparatively weak level of coordination authority and cannot effectively influence the statistical activities of other agencies.
Yet the NLD-led government in Myanmar is revising domestic statistics law to allow stronger statistical coordination by the CSO once the new law takes effect. For this, the Committee on Data Accuracy and Quality of Statistics needs a strengthened role and working-level subcommittees are needed to perform and monitor decisions made by the committee.
4.2.2. Survey Methodologies Using ICT and Administrative Data
As mentioned above, all business processes including data production and dissemination need an overhaul and efforts must go toward taking maximum advantage of advanced ICT including computers as well as administrative records. These will require extensive funding and training for equipment and professionals. For the effective use of administrative records, record standardization across agencies is a priority, as is a network system as part of an e-Government initiative.
156 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 157 4.3. Follow-Up Research and Collaboration with Other Organizations
To enhance survey methodologies, Korean government is discussing potential collaboration with the World Bank in the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) of Myanmar, Laos and Indonesia through KSP Joint Consulting Project. The initiative aims to produce key statistics by collecting vital information such as number of birth and death through the civil registration system. The Republic of Korea’s civil registration system is lauded internationally. Collaboration with the World Bank on CRVS is expected to generate highly productive outcomes at the global level.
Chapter 2 _ Strengthening the Role and Status of CSO by Improving Survey Methodologies in Myanmar • 157 References
Kim, Hwang Dae, Modularization of Korea’s Development Experiences: Development of the Korean Statistical System, KSP Modularization Report, 2014. KOICA, Final Report on the Project of Capacity Building through IT-based Statistical Data Management in Myanmar, 2015. [in Korean] KOICA, National Statistical Development Strategy Report: The Project of Capacity Building through IT-based Statistical Data Management in Myanmar, 2015. Myanmar Ministry of Planning and Finance, http://www.mopf.gov.mm. OECD, www.oecd.org/std. Statistical Training Institute, Use of Official Statistical Information, 2008. [in Korean] Statistics Korea, National Statistical Development Strategy, 2011. [in Korean] Statistics Korea, The 6th International Workshop on Internet Surveys and Survey Methodology, 2014. Statistics Korea, History of Korean Statistics, 2015. [in Korean] Statistics Korea, Guidelines for Statistics-based Policy Evaluation, 2016. [in Korean] Statistics Korea, National Statistical Quality Assessment Manual, 2016. [in Korean] Rice, Stuart. Better Statistics in Korea, 1960. UNECE. www.unece.org/stats. U.N. Statistics Division. https://unstats.un.org.
158 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar: Beyond Economic Liberalization: Chapter 3 New Policy Challenges for Myanmar
Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market
1. Introduction: Focus of KSP with Myanmar 2. Current Status of Labor markets in Myanmar 3. Labor Markets Forecasting in Korea 4. Policy Recommendations ■ Chapter 03
Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market
Soobong Uh (Korea University of Technology & Education)
Summary
The new government of Myanmar has announced a comprehensive development plan and outlines for economic policy. The plan says improving accessibility to and quality of vocational training is crucial for the industrial sector to obtain relevant competencies and pursue job opportunities in Myanmar. Since National Competency Standards (NCS) are derived from industrial demand for vocational education and training, the government since 2007 has pursued the development of NCS and skills qualification. For proper application of the NCS, more accurate predictions for labor and skills demand are required.
Myanmar in 2016 conducted a survey of its labor force and employment for the first time since its Household Labor Force Sample Survey done in 1990. The government was fully convinced that the success of the 2016 survey was not only useful for the Ministry of Labor, Immigration and Population (MOLIP), but also for the reform of the union government, in addition for the adoption of employment and labor policies and their implementation and planning. Through the KSP with the Republic of Korea, Myanmar wants information and knowhow on forecasting market demand for labor and skills. To meet Myanmar’s needs, this paper provides the following: 1) the Republic of Korea’s experience in making labor market projections, focusing on the methodology of predicting employment by industry and occupation; and 2) alternative ways of labor market forecasting when the sample size is too small.
160 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 161 Since Myanmar is at the early stage of socioeconomic development, select labor- intensive industries such as garments, textiles, shoes, wood processing and electronics assembly could play an important role in this stage. To promote investment in these industries, many semi-skilled personnel are essential along with proper location. The purpose of this study is thus to cooperate with the Myanmar government to effectively plan for demand-driven labor markets.
Based on a study of Myanmar’s labor statistics and the capacity of related government officers, this report suggests policy recommendations to improve forecasting employment and skill demand by industry and occupation.
(1) In Myanmar, forecasting can be done only by a couple of experts. The crucial forecasting methodology is to obtain available data, set the model and make an industry-occupation matrix. So the government needs to raise the capacity of these experts. One recommendation is to offer two or three statisticians in the Department of Labor the opportunity to learn projection methodology at advanced institutions abroad like the Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS). Or a KEIS expert could travel to Myanmar to give lectures on forecasting methodology to officials tasked with forecasting labor markets. In addition, they can also learn more about the Republic of Korea’s experience in carrying out the strategies of statistical data production and alignment of labor market forecasting with policies toward industry and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET).
(2) Inter-governmental cooperation is emphasized again for better forecasting of employment and skills demand. Important data on industrial production can be obtained with the help of the Ministry of Industry (MOI). The Central Statistical Organization (CSO) can assist in getting current and, more importantly, projected population data. These two data sets are essential for forecasting. Furthermore, definitions and classifications of statistical variables (i.e., industry or occupation) should be identical in every survey, though carried out by separate ministries.
(3) The labor force survey, based on the population census, should be conducted on a regular basis. Because time-series data of more than 10 years are essential for forecasting labor markets, an annual survey of the labor force is strongly recommended. The 2015 survey seems to meet international standards in sample size, methodology and relevance of questionnaires, so Myanmar is ready to conduct the survey on an annual basis.
(4) Also, a census on the country’s businesses is needed soon and more importantly on a regular basis. Household surveys have a known weakness when configuring employment size by industry and/or occupation. More
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 161 importantly, a sample survey of businesses is not possible without the census just because samples can be randomly chosen only from the census. Based on this census, Myanmar can conduct quick surveys on demand for employment and skills in strategic industries.
(5) To make labor market projections, the following historical data are needed for at least the next 10 years. For the supply side: working-age (15 and older) population and rates of labor force participation by age, gender and education. For the demand side: GDP for selected industries and overall number of workers and its decomposition by selected occupations for each industry. For projections: GDP forecasts by selected industries and working- age population projections by age, gender and education. The priority is thus to produce and accumulate official data on labor markets.
(6) Myanmar can benchmark models of labor market forecasting done in many advanced economies to build its own model. Among national models of labor market forecasting are the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS model) of the US, the Institute for Employment Research (IES model) of Britain, Institute fur Arbeitsmark und Berufsforschung (IAB model) of Germany, and the Research Center for Education and the Labor Market (ROA model) of the Netherlands.
1. Introduction: Focus of KSP with Myanmar
In January 2013, the Myanmar government presented a comprehensive framework for economic and social reforms to promote democracy and peace, as well as generate inclusive growth and development.1) It also announced a comprehensive development plan and outlines of economic policy.2) As clearly written in its reports, the government has stressed improvement of accessibility to and quality of vocational training for the industrial sector to boost competencies and pursue job opportunities in Myanmar. Better vocational training is also needed to fix many problems on the labor supply side. Because national competency standards (NCS) are derived from industrial demand for vocational education and training, the government has emphasized development of NCS and skills qualification since 2007.3)
Based on the recent development of NCS, Myanmar is conducting skills assessment in 19 occupational areas (like arc welder, carpenter and automotive mechanic) and trying to raise skill levels. For proper application of NCS, more accurate forecasting of the demand for labor and skills is required. Until recently, the government (2016)
1) Government of Myanmar (2013). 2) MNPED (2015), Myo Aung (2016), and Uh(2015). 3) Uh (2016).
162 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 163 had conducted a survey on the labor force and employment just once since its Household Labor Force Sample Survey in 1990. Only two points in the time-series data are available in Myanmar over the past 25 years. Forecasting the labor force and employment based on these two observations seems nearly impossible. Yet the government plans to conduct the labor force survey on a regular basis and forecast its labor markets based on these time-series data. In this context, Myanmar, through its KSP with the Republic of Korea, wants advanced information and knowhow on forecasting market demand for labor and skills. To meet Myanmar’s needs, this paper provides the following:
(1) The Republic of Korea’s experience in labor market forecasting, focusing on the methodology of predicting employment by industry and occupation;
(2) Alternative methods of labor market forecasting when the sample size is too small.
Because Myanmar is in the early stage of socioeconomic development, certain labor-intensive industries (such as garments, textiles, shoes, wood processing or electronics assembly) could play an important role in this stage. To promote investment in these sectors, many semi-skilled workers are essential along with the proper locations. The purpose of this study is thus to cooperate with the Myanmar government to successfully plan demand-driven labor markets.
This report starts with a brief review of Myanmar’s labor markets based on the country’s 2015 survey on the labor force and employment. Portions of the survey results will be introduced and examined for data set availability such as the industry- occupation or education-occupation matrix of employment. Next is the Republic of Korea’s experience in making labor market projections, focusing on the methodology of forecasting employment by industry and occupation, the main features of this report. Unfortunately, Myanmar cannot apply this advanced methodology to forecast labor markets simply because of the lack of time-series data sufficient for forecasting. So this report suggests alternative methods of labor market forecasting when the sample size is too small.
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 163 2. Current Status of Labor Markets in Myanmar4)
2.1. Recent Development of Skills Assessment
The quality development of Myanmar’s workforce is related to activities for job creation, vocational training and skills development at the state and division levels as well as the national level. Skills assessment and development are essential for giving workers crucial technical expertise. With strong technical knowledge and experience, a more skilled workforce could more efficiently contribute to its country’s development. Since the country opened up in 2011, demand for skilled workers in every industry has surged, not just for those with experience but also those with the proper technical certificates. To fill the gap between demand for skilled labor and supply of workers, ministries and organizations in Myanmar offer vocational evaluation, testing and certification to assess the capacity of unskilled and semi-skilled workers. The problem is that they are using their own standards and approaches to meet labor demand. The country has no official or recognized skill certification platform for semi-professional occupations.
From 2004-08, the Ministry of Labor, Immigration and Population (MOLIP) participated in the ASEAN project dubbed “Enhancing Skills Recognition Systems in ASEAN”, which aimed to develop a National and Regional Qualification Framework, or the ASEAN Regional Qualification Framework (AQRF) for the recognition of skills in semi-professional occupations. With the forthcoming ASEAN Economic Community, the AQRF will act as a regional reference point to make it easier to understand, compare and recognize qualifications across the vocational education and training systems in ASEAN countries for the free flow of skilled labor. The ASEAN project recommends the formation of the National Skill Standards Authority (NSSA) in line with the AQRF and development of occupational competency standards for certification in the following four levels.
• Level 1: Semi-skilled worker/assistant • Level 2: Skilled worker/journeyman • Level 3: Advanced skilled worker • Level 4: Technician/supervisor
The AQRF not only enables comparisons of qualifications across ASEAN countries but also promotes education and training in the industrial sector and the wider objective of lifelong learning. Per competency standards, a semi-skilled worker
4) This section was written with the help of Kyaw Kyaw Lwin (2017), director of the Skills Development Division of MOLIP.
164 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 165 can get promoted from assistant to supervisor through technical knowhow, work experience, training and assessment.
The NSSA was formed in 2007 to regulate, lead and set competency standards for and conduct assessments of personnel development in Myanmar. Headed by the permanent secretary for MOLIP, the authority comprises representatives from ministries concerned with skills development as well as non-governmental organizations. Its aim is setting competency standards and promoting the systematic training and certification of skilled workers. After its opening, the NSSA formed 15 sectoral committees comprised of representatives from the concerned ministries as well as the private sector. Its objective is to devise competency standards for a variety of priority occupations in 15 economic sectors. The committees drew up four levels of occupational skills standards for 173 occupations with the help of domestic and international consultants and organizations.
NSSA certificates are instrumental for securing employment both at home and abroad, thus proper training and assessments are needed every year. Assessors and the NSSA team should educate public and private employers about the certification. The government needs to send qualified inspectors abroad to obtain the relevant international assessor certificates. Though testing and certification have proven important for both workers and employers, understanding the certificate’s standards is problematic. For example, no specification covers whom to send for the assessment. So educating business owners about the importance and standards of the NSSA certificate is essential. Government intervention is also required in setting rules, regulations and incentives for general and semi-skilled workers to undergo assessment. By providing the NSSA certificate with international standards at every skill level more frequently, all stakeholders will benefit. For management, the certificate means the holder has better working techniques, which later translates to superior quality. In return, potential customers will be willing to pay more for better quality products. Yet in Myanmar, unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled workers are mixed without formal or proper certification. Moving on to the second level is thus a key to separate better-skilled workers from semi-skilled ones as well as motivate certificate holders. Continuous government support is needed along with relevant laws and regulations, such as demand for NSSA-certified workers in companies and pay scale according to competency level.
Vocational training and skill assessment are important for raising the overall skill level of the Myanmar workforce. To boost employment opportunities for Myanmar workers as well as invigorate their participation in the ASEAN Economic Community since 2016, Myanmar is required to have its own National Qualification Framework (NQF) to link up with the AQRF. Myanmar has formed the NSSA and is performing the required tasks to recognize the skills of workers, including setting competency
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 165 standards and issuing a recognition certificate. The Fast Track Skills Assessment Pilot Project is considered one of the first steps and initiatives taken to set competency standards for semi-skilled workers and help recognize higher skill levels. This project is considered a success as all certificate holders have continued to follow their respective NSSA competency standards. Myanmar should thus proceed as follows:
(1) The NSSA team should continue pilot tests and provide more training and assessments since many potential workers are willing to undergo the assessments for the certificate. Certificate holders have the strong belief that the certificate is a vocational qualification to further their careers;
(2) The project is for Skill Level 1 and its focus is certification of semi-skilled workers, yet the majority of certificate holders have more than three years of working experience in their respective fields. They have all undergone the assessment for Skill Level 1 as they lack major technical certificates. Many holders can test for higher levels such as 2 or 3. So the recommendation is an assessment of such a level over the short to medium term, as delaying higher assessment programs could further discourage certificate holders;
(3) Non-certificate holders are being interviewed and the results show that some of them have not taken certain steps or procedures due to lack of work experience. They have performed a few steps because their superiors took the test and led them to follow competency standards, especially those on safety. When asked whether if they would take the assessment, the non-holders said yes and expressed their wish to receive the NSSA certificate;
(4) Accreditation from the government and related ministries is important for certificate holders so that their credentials will remain valid for years. The need for employers to fully understand the NSSA certificate and its usefulness are also critical, as quite a few employers have limited awareness of the certificate. Also advised is a program or information for all stakeholders about the NSSA certificate and its competencies to promote wider recognition of the certificate’s value and importance;
(5) Many certificate holders have provided feedback to give more information on training and assessment such as educational background, technical skill level, tentative syllabus, the certificate’s benefits and relevant experience needed to undergo the assessment. By providing such details to participating companies, a better assessment will further raise efficiency for employers when deciding whom to recruit.
166 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 167 2.2. Recent Development of Labor Force Statistics
The Myanmar Ministry of Labor, Immigration and Population (MOLIP) in 1990 conducted the Household Labor Force Sample Survey with the collaboration and cooperation of the International Labor Organization (ILO), U.N. Development Program and U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA). Since then, however, no survey of this kind had been done for more than 25 years. Data on Myanmar’s labor force had remained based on the 1990 survey for years, but this outdated information can no longer meet the present-day needs of the country. The shortage of reliable data on the labor force had also prevailed for years. The dearth of reliable statistical information blocked the adoption of labor market policies and programs in Myanmar. In view of this, the Department of Labor under MOLIP held consultations with the ILO in 2014 on conducting a new labor force survey that materialized in 2015.
The Myanmar Labor Force, Child Labor and School-to-Work Transition Survey was conducted from January 1 to March 31, 2015. As this was a sample survey, the sample frame was based on the 2014 population and housing census covering 80,557 enumeration areas. A sample of 1,500 enumeration areas was selected and 24,000 households from the areas were chosen for the survey. The success of this survey was not only a boost for MOLIP, but also for the union government’s reform process, especially for the adoption of employment and labor policies and their implementation and planning.
The survey’s main objective was collection of detailed information on the population age five and above disaggregated by age, sex, state or region, sector and social category. The results provided information on the national labor market for use in developing, managing and evaluating labor market policy and programs. Data were also obtained on child and subsistence workers, occupational injuries and hazards at work, and the nature and ways of transition from school to work for youth. The survey intended to support a gender-mainstreamed analysis of the labor market and compiled statistics at the state, regional and national levels on employment, including informal employment, income from employment and unemployment. These statistics were especially useful to the government in helping identify the problems Myanmar faces in raising employment. Armed with this information, planners and policymakers are better able to develop policy and programs to improve public welfare.
In the drive to conduct the survey, a steering committee was formed led by the director-general of the Department of Labor (DOL). The technical committee was subsequently formed with the department’s deputy director-general as the chair and the ILO’s chief technical adviser as vice chair, along with statisticians and
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 167 representatives from relevant departments and organizations. These committees took the initiative in providing required administrative and technical directives for the survey’s successful implementation. The 2015 labor force survey was the first of its kind done since the one on the household labor force in 1990; accordingly it was the first such experience for incumbent officials and staff in the DOL. For successful implementation of survey programs, the ILO initiated several training courses and workshops for supervisors, enumerators, members of the Labor Force Survey Core Team and technical committee. Above all, overseas training and study tours were also arranged for them to gain wider knowledge and experience on the subject matter. Prior to the survey’s commencement, efforts went toward raising public awareness of the survey and earning public cooperation and support. The survey results were publicized in the government’s “Report on Myanmar’s Labor Force Survey 2015”.
As clearly noted in the 2015 survey, the poll suffered from the following limitations: (1) the aggregate population was underestimated and age heaping occurred perhaps due to digit preference and data on age recoding. The questionnaire had different age cut-off points for questions and sections. This also induced errors in the recoding age. The youth population (ages 15-29) apparently could have been underestimated. The population aggregates, however, were calibrated to match the size and structure of the population per the census; (2) The questionnaire was too long and attempted to cover too many topics. The core questions on the labor force were in the middle or end, resulting in a huge impact on quality of the data; (3) While this survey was underway, MOLIP conducted another large-scale poll on the cost of living, and this limited the number of human resources available in select states and regions; (4) The survey period was the off-season and the survey was conducted just once. So the results pertaining to employment characteristics were restricted; and (5) Data quality problems arose with data entry, partly because of the roster format used. The population was underestimated 6.47%, so an expert had to review the entire data set and base weights were revised to match the size and structure of the census population at the state and regional levels.
Also recently, the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) conducted a business survey with the help of the UNDP and other donor countries; the results were published as “Myanmar Business Survey 2015” in 2016 (UNDP and CSO, 2016). The objective was to tackle these limitations and provide comprehensive economic statistics on the country’s private sector, inform both government policymakers and non-government stakeholders, and provide a key data source for the calculation of national accounts. The study was expected to be the first in a series of regular annual or biennial business surveys, and designed to comply with international standards and best practices for economic and structural business statistics. It constituted a core element of the country’s official economic statistics.
168 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 169 Myanmar’s previous surveys struggled with problems in representativeness due to the lack of a comprehensive list (register) of businesses usable to draw a representative sample. The surveys merely covered specific sectors and/or geographical areas of the private sector or used non-probability sampling methods that cannot produce statistically representative results. None of these previous approaches achieved nationwide comprehensive coverage of all economic sectors. While also affected by the lack of a statistical business register, the Myanmar Business Survey did significantly do better in coverage compared to earlier surveys by using a hitherto unexploited data source as a sampling frame.
The business survey achieved nationwide coverage of almost all economic sectors (excluding only agriculture and finance). Its sample was almost 15,000 businesses nationwide, which was statistically representative of more than 126,000 businesses in manufacturing, trade and services. Public or government-owned businesses were excluded from the survey. Moreover, the sampling frame covered only businesses with at least one hired worker, so the smallest businesses (own-account and family- run businesses) were also excluded. And while an attempt was made to cover telecommunications, several major players in this small sector refused interviews, making it impossible to present reliable statistics. Thus telecoms were excluded from the analysis.
The business survey covered 126,928 businesses that employed 1,104,849 workers (including full-time and part-time employees, family workers and working proprietors). Manufacturing had by far the highest number of workers with 644,506 (58%), followed by trade with 204,486 (19%) and services with 255,857 (23%), as shown in the table to the right.
While the labor force survey should be considered the primary source of information on working conditions and worker compensation, the business survey also asked businesses about the number of hours worked as well as compensation paid to a range of workers. Little variation was seen between sectors in hours worked per year by full-time and part-time employees (around 2,500 and 1,800 hours, respectively), though manufacturing appeared to have the fewest average working hours. Family workers were used mostly in trade, but worked significantly lower hours in manufacturing than in the other two sectors. The labor force survey also collected data on worker compensation like compensation (including salary and wages, housing and transportation allowances, bonuses and other benefits paid in cash or in kind), social welfare contributions (such as those to insurance and other social security programs) and other payments in kind or in cash (contribution to education and health).
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 169 This business survey is expected to help forecast labor markets in Myanmar along with the labor force survey, because the demand side data from the business survey are essential to predict demand for employment and skills. With two time-series data sets in hand, Myanmar is ready to start making labor market projections.
2.3. Major Features of Labor Force in Myanmar
shows the percentage of persons by age according to level of education. At the national level, the proportion of the working age population (ages 15 and above) who completed high school was 6.5%. By region, 11.1% of high school grads were in urban areas and only 4.4% in rural areas. In going on to higher education, males had a slightly higher proportion than females. The proportion of the working age population that graduated with an educational qualification or above was 5.8%, 13% in urban areas and 2.6% in rural areas. Though differences were seen in the educational levels between urban and rural areas, the gender gap was not that pronounced. Distribution of Persons by Age according to Educational Level(Unit: %)
Under Bachelor Not Below Vocational High Domain Primary Middle graduate degree Total literate primary certificate school diploma & above 5 years & above All-Myanmar 14.0 25.2 33.0 17.2 0.2 5.0 0.8 4.5 100.0
Urban 8.0 17.9 27.6 24.7 0.4 9.1 1.9 10.6 100.0
Rural 16.6 28.3 35.2 14.1 0.1 3.4 0.4 2.0 100.0
Male 12.5 25.3 33.0 19.0 0.2 5.6 0.9 3.5 100.0
Female 15.4 25.2 33.0 15.6 0.1 4.5 0.8 5.4 100.0 15 years & above All-Myanmar 12.2 18.7 34.1 21.4 0.2 6.5 1.1 5.8 100.0
Urban 5.9 11.7 26.0 29.6 0.5 11.1 2.3 13.0 100.0
Rural 15.0 21.9 37.7 17.7 0.1 4.4 0.5 2.6 100.0
Male 10.1 18.0 34.5 24.1 0.3 7.4 1.1 4.6 100.0
Female 14.1 19.4 33.8 19.1 0.2 5.7 1.0 6.8 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
170 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 171
is the distribution of the working age population by field of study among those with the highest educational qualifications beyond high school. The percentage figures show that field of study has a larger impact than age on the labor market. For example, more people studied arts and humanities, natural sciences, mathematics and statistics in all age groups. Distribution of Working Age Population by Field of Study(Unit: %)
Age-group(years) Field of study 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ all(15+)
All-Myanmar 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Education 5.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 2.0 5.0 2.6
Arts and Humanities 28.7 33.5 28.6 31.4 33.1 35.7 32.6 31.8
Social Science, journalism 10.3 7.3 8.5 14.0 10.5 6.3 7.6 9.1 and information
Business, administration 3.9 3.9 9.1 8.5 3.1 1.7 5.0 5.5 and law
Natural sciences, mathematics 32.1 38.3 38.2 33.9 41.1 46.3 37.7 38.2 and statistics
Engineering manufacturing 11.9 9.1 6.0 5.2 5.0 3.8 5.7 6.4 and construction
Agriculture, forestry, 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.2 3.5 3.2 3.6 2.5 fisheries and veterinary
Health and welfare 4.3 2.4 2.9 2.9 1.1 0.4 3.0 2.2
Others 2.0 1.8 3.7 3.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 1.6
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
In
, the percentage of persons ages 15 and above is shown by labor force status, sex and educational level. A gross similarity appears in the gender distributions in the labor force for both the “employed” and “unemployed” categories, but the proportion of females was higher in the categories of “not literate”, “below primary” and “bachelor’s degree or above”. The same was true for the category “outside labor force” but the difference between the proportions for males and females were much smaller. Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 171
Distribution of Labor Force Status by Educational Level(Unit: %)
Employed Unemployed Outside labour force Education level Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total
Not literate 8.4 10.8 9.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 16.5 17.7 17.4
Below primary 19.3 20.6 19.9 10.9 9.1 10.0 12.8 18.1 16.8
Primary 36.1 35.1 35.7 18.3 24.0 21.2 28.4 32.6 31.5
Middle 23.6 18.4 21.3 31.1 20.9 25.9 26.1 19.8 21.4
Vocational certificate 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3
High school 6.8 5.3 6.2 18.4 8.3 13.3 9.1 6.0 6.8
Under graduate diploma 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.8 2.5 3.3 1.6 2.0
Bachelor degree & above 4.9 9.2 6.8 14.4 30.3 22.4 3.1 4.0 3.7
All 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
shows the distribution of employment by industrial sector.5) The distribution of employed persons by industrial sector by job type and sex are presented. The main job could be considered the usual job and the distributions are close to each other. Yet the distribution of secondary jobs is different from that of main jobs. Here, a main job refers to a job in which the maximum time is spent over the last seven days preceding the survey’s date. Among those with main jobs, 54.2% of the employed were working in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Next were those in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles with 13.9%; manufacturing 10.6%, transportation and storage 4.2%, other services 4% and construction 3.4%. All other sectors accounted for under 3%. Comparing the sexes in their main jobs, the pattern of distribution by industrial sector was similar.The proportion of females in manufacturing, wholesale and retail, motor vehicle and motorcycle repair, and education was significantly higher than that of males but opposite in construction, transportation and storage. In secondary jobs, about three-fourths of persons having more than one job over the last seven days preceding the survey date were employed in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The distribution pattern was similar to that of main jobs in both urban and rural areas.
5) Definitions of variables in
are as follows: Main job is the current job or business in which a person usually works the most hours even if absent over the last seven days; Secondary job is a job in which a worker spend usually the second-most time over the last seven days; Usual employment or job: the main job or business held by persons of working age over the past year and the predominant employment situation of long-employed workers.172 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 173 The distribution of the working age population employed under the usual status by industrial sector had a similar pattern to that of main jobs. From this, the conclusion is that the employed are normally working the same job.
Distribution of Employed by Industrial Sector(Unit: %)
Main job Secondary job Usual job Industrial sector Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total
Agriculture, forestry 56.1 51.6 54.2 73.4 75.1 74.0 56.6 52.1 54.7 and fishing
Manufacturing 9.3 12.3 10.6 6.6 7.0 6.8 9.2 12.2 10.5
Construction 5.4 0.8 3.4 4.0 0.7 2.8 5.3 0.8 3.4
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 9.4 19.8 13.9 5.1 10.1 6.9 9.3 19.6 13.7 vegicles and motocycles
Transportation and 7.1 0.5 4.2 3.2 0.1 2.1 7.0 0.5 4.2 storage
Administrative and 2.5 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.4 1.2 2.4 1.9 2.2 support service activities
Other service activities 4.6 3.3 4.0 3.3 2.1 2.9 4.5 3.3 4.0
Other 5.6 9.8 7.5 2.8 4.5 3.3 5.7 9.6 7.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
In
, the employment distribution by major occupation is shown grouped separately by job type and sex. Among main jobs, the main occupations were skilled agricultural, forestry and fisheries (44.8%), elementary jobs (15.8%), services and sales (15.3%) and craft and related trades (11.2%). Among secondary jobs, the distribution pattern was like that of main jobs but the proportion was much higher for skilled workers in agriculture, forestry and fisheries at 63.6%. The distribution of employed persons by major occupation group per usual employment was close to that of main jobs. Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 173
Distribution of Employed by Major Occupation(Unit: %)
Occupation major Main job Secondary job Usual job group Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total
Armed forces occupations 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1
Managers 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7
Professionals 1.9 5.3 3.4 1.4 2.6 1.8 2.0 5.3 3.4
Technicians and 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.2 1.9 associate professionals
Clerical support workers 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.6
Service and sales workers 10.3 22.1 15.3 5.3 11.1 7.4 10.2 21.8 15.1
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery 47.2 41.6 44.8 64.3 62.5 63.6 47.6 42.2 45.3 workers Craft and related trades 12.3 9.8 11.2 7.7 5.4 6.9 12.1 9.7 11.1 workers Plant and machine 6.6 1.5 4.4 3.0 0.6 2.1 6.5 1.5 4.3 operators, and assemblers
Elementary occupations 17.2 15.8 16.6 15.7 17.6 16.4 17.0 15.7 16.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
Employment status was classified as (i) employee (including a paid apprentice); (ii) employer (with regular employees); (iii) own-account worker (including cooperation in a household or family business); (iv) contributing family worker (helping without pay in a household or family business) and (v) cooperative member (no salary paid).
presents the distribution of the employed by employment status. The category of cooperative members was almost nil. Their share might have been negligible or they were actively engaged in the cooperative and received pay or had other jobs. shows that the population of employed persons age 15 or over constituted 65.3%; employees comprised 38% of the employed while own- account workers made up 47% and unpaid relatives 12%. Thus the majority of the employed were engaged in small family businesses. In urban areas, the proportion of employees among the employed was higher than in rural areas while the opposite for own-account workers or contributing family members. The proportion of employers looked similar in both urban and rural areas. Among the employed, the category of “employer” had a higher proportion of
174 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 175 males than females and the same was true for own-account workers. Females were proportionately higher in the category of “contributing family workers”. This shows that a household or family business is usually owned by male partners and females are prone to be unpaid family workers.
Distribution of Employed by Job StatusPercentage Own Contribu- Coopera- All-Myanmar of Employee Employer account ting family tive Total (15+) persons worker worker member employed
Job: Main job
All-Myanmar 38.5 3.8 45.9 11.8 0.0 100.0 64.2
Urban 47.2 4.2 42.8 5.9 0.0 100.0 59.3
Rural 35.1 3.7 47.1 14.1 0.0 100.0 66.4
Male 39.4 5.3 47.5 7.7 0.0 100.0 79.7
Female 37.3 1.8 43.8 17.1 0.0 100.0 51.1
Job: Secondary job
All-Myanmar 49.0 1.9 45.1 3.8 0.1 100.0 4.5
Urban 33.2 5.8 56.3 4.8 0.0 100.0 1.3
Rural 50.5 1.6 44.1 3.7 0.1 100.0 5.8
Male 48.1 2.6 46.8 2.4 0.1 100.0 5.0
Female 50.6 0.8 42.4 6.1 0.1 100.0 3.9
Job: Usual job
All-Myanmar 38.0 3.8 46.5 11.7 0.0 100.0 65.3
Urban 47.0 4.2 42.9 5.9 0.0 100.0 59.6
Rural 34.5 3.6 47.9 14.0 0.0 100.0 67.8
Male 38.9 5.2 48.0 7.8 0.0 100.0 80.9
Female 36.8 1.8 44.5 16.9 0.0 100.0 52.1
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
shows the distribution of the working age population by education level for usual status jobs. 56% of the employed had finished primary school or below. 77% had an educational level of below high school and only 13% had completed high school or above. Among industries, the percentage of the employed Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 175 with a bachelor’s degree or above was highest in the service sector. More males than females had a bachelor’s or higher and more people in urban areas had the same background than rural areas.
Distribution of Employed by Educational LevelAll- Area Sex Industry Education level Myanmar Urban Rural Male Female Agriculture Industry Services Job: Usual
Not literate 10.0 4.4 12.2 8.9 11.5 14.1 5.4 5.6
Below primary 19.9 11.8 23.0 19.3 20.6 24.5 17.4 13.3
Primary 35.4 25.9 39.1 35.9 34.8 39.9 34.5 28.3
Middle 21.1 29.7 17.8 23.4 18.2 16.5 28.0 25.4
Vocational certificate 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4
High school 6.1 10.7 4.3 6.8 5.3 3.7 7.8 9.3
Under graduate 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.2 diploma
Bachelor degree & 6.7 15.8 3.1 4.9 9.1 1.1 5.9 16.6 above
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
The distribution of the employed by business or establishment where they work measures how the business or establishment is organized in the country.
shows that about 18% of the employed worked in a one-person business or establishment. More than 61% of the employed worked for a business or establishment that had fewer than five staff. Just 3.3% had a workplace of 50 or more staff. 176 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 177
Distribution of Employed by Business SizeEstablishment size Domain Works 100 or 2-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 All alone more All-Myanmar 18.1 42.7 22.8 9.2 3.7 1.2 2.3 100.0
Sex
Male 16.5 44.5 23.3 9.1 3.8 1.1 1.6 100.0
Female 20.2 40.4 22.0 9.3 3.6 1.3 3.1 100.0
Area type
Urban 23.8 34.4 17.2 10.7 6.9 2.3 4.7 100.0
Rural 15.9 46.0 24.9 8.7 2.5 0.7 1.3 100.0
Sector
Agriculture 9.0 51.6 28.4 7.7 1.8 0.4 0.2 100.0
Industry 14.8 29.9 24.3 11.5 7.4 2.6 9.5 100.0
Services 34.9 35.0 12.7 8.9 4.9 1.7 1.8 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
The distribution of employees by pay period is presented in
. It shows that 93% of workers were paid either daily or monthly. In rural areas, most employees received daily wages while those in urban areas got paid monthly. This is mainly because rural areas have mainly agricultural workers while urban areas have mostly service staff. Males edged females in the number of daily wage earners while the opposite was true for monthly wage and/or salary earners. Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 177
Distribution of Employed by Pay PeriodDomain One day One week Two week One month Other Total
All-Myanmar 53.3 4.6 0.5 40.0 1.6 100.0
Sex
Male 54.7 4.6 0.7 37.7 2.2 100.0
Female 51.3 4.4 0.3 43.2 0.8 100.0
Area type
Urban 30.1 4.2 0.4 64.7 0.6 100.0
Rural 65.6 4.7 0.5 26.9 2.2 100.0
Sector
Agriculture 77.1 4.7 0.3 14.7 3.2 100.0
Industry 49.6 7.5 0.9 40.9 1.1 100.0
Services 31.8 2.1 0.4 65.2 0.5 100.0
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
shows that informal sectors in Myanmar are larger than formal sectors. To understand the informal element of the country’s labor market, registration of an establishment and account maintenance by the establishment were examined. The share of the informal sector was examined with reference to the important classifications of industrial, occupational and educational activities, as a person’s job could be informal irrespective of whether they are working in the formal sector. The extent of informal employment was also highlighted. The informal sector was defined as: (i) private ownership of a business or not government owned or a joint venture; (ii) the business or farm is not registered with a ministry. Informal employment was defined as (i) contributing family workers; (ii) other self-employed within an informal sector business; (iii) employees with no employer contributions to social security; (iv) employees with employer contributions to social security but no paid annual leave; or (v) employees with employer contributions to social security and paid annual leave but no paid sick leave. The percentage of persons working in an establishment and/or business registered with a ministry is given in
. The category “other” is prominent and mainly for small businesses registered with a city development committee. About 57% of the employed work for a business that requires no registration. If the reply “don’t know” is ignored, the percentage of units with no registration required rises to 77%. 178 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 179
Distribution of Employed by Formal or Informal SectorRegistered with ministry Not registered
National Don't Domain Hotel Planning Comm- Not In the know and Health Other Any & Eco erce required process Tourism develop.
All-Myanmar 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 16.6 18.2 57.5 1.7 22.7
Sex
Male 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 17.7 19.1 55.0 1.7 24.1
Female 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 15.0 16.8 60.9 1.6 20.7
Area type
Urban 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.3 19.1 22.1 49.2 1.5 27.2
Rural 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 15.7 16.8 60.4 1.8 21.1
Source: MOLIP, Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey, 2015.
3. Labor Markets Forecasting in Korea6)
3.1. Purpose of Labor Markets Projections
The Republic of Korea’s objective in forecasting its labor force and employment is identifying problems by predicting structural changes in labor supply and demand. Many economic agents such as policymakers, industrial investors, job seekers and investors in human capital can benefit from these projections. Considering the long-term impact of low birthrate and rapidly aging population on the labor force, the forecasts try to guess changes in labor demand and supply and demand for education and training. Such projections first can contribute to employment policy by assessing the effects of major changes in the labor demographic structure, given the decreasing population of school-age children. These projections are also useful in formulating socioeconomic policy actions such as social security and national health insurance in response to the rapidly aging society.
Predicting labor demand in the industrial sector can focus on national strategic industries such as a cyber-physical manufacturing system (CPS), Artificial Intelligence (AI), 3-D printing, and select creative and knowledge-based industries. For these
6) This section depends heavily on KEIS (2015).
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 179 sectors, labor force and employment projections are expected to contribute to policy toward Human Resource Development (HRD) by providing information about demand for new jobs as well as their required skill levels. Employment forecasting can provide students and newcomers to the labor market with valuable information when considering career paths and occupations. Many students and graduates will consider the signals of labor market changes, especially in promising occupations and skills. With the help of accurate projections of employment trends, they can pursue the acquisition of required skills by type and competency level.
In short, the purpose of labor force and employment projections is to serve as a signal in the labor market. Information on occupational changes can support smooth transition from school to the labor market. A good signaling system can also raise the efficiency of investment in vocational education and training, and prevent mismatching in labor markets by making rational economic agents prevent gaps between labor supply and demand. In this way, signaling can resolve over-education and mismatching of labor supply and demand, thus contributing to effective HRD planning and better allocation of human resources.
The Republic of Korea’s most recent period of forecasting was 2013-23, and the projections forecast the working age population and labor force by gender, age and education and employment by industry and occupation. This paper is on the projection methodology and important findings are covered in the next sections.
3.2. Methodology of Forecasting
The Ministry of Employment and Labor (MOEL) of the Republic of Korea has conducted a series of 10-year forecasts of its labor force and employment under a comprehensive inter-governmental framework every two years. The legal framework for the projections is known as the Framework Act on Employment Policy, which requires the labor minister to conduct research on forecasting methodology. He or she should also report to the public the gist of the employment projections by industry and occupation. MOEL and other public agencies have set up a system to interlink national projections of the labor force and employment. The Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS) is the public authority of this project and responsible for the projections.
To promote the credibility of the projections, new institutions have been established including the General Council of Labor Force and Employment Planning and Coordination, the Advisory Committee on Labor Force and Employment, and the Working Committee on Labor Force and Employment Coordination.
180 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 181 The projections cover (1) labor force, (2) employment and (3) the gap between the number of new entrants to the labor market and labor demand. KEIS is developing its own micro-simulation model (called the KEISIM model) for the projections. Together with the KEISIM model, adjustments could be made in accordance with labor statistics. To forecast employment by industry and occupation, a forecast of economic growth by industry is needed the most. Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) is the public think tank that provides such data to KEIS. In the forecasting process, a wide variety of projection methods are employed like a macro-level time-series analysis model. Employment projections by industry and occupation can be done in select sub-categories both for industries and occupations if production data are available. The projection period is usually ten years. The next table and figure summarize the data set used in employment projections and the step-by-step methodology of forecasting in the Republic of Korea.
Data Used in Republic of Korea’s Employment ProjectionsData Source Period
Population Projection Statistics Korea Every five year
Census of Population Statistics Korea Every five year
Economically Active Population Survey Statistics Korea Monthly
Statistical Yearbook of Education KEDI Annual
Labor-force Korean Longitudinal Survey Women KWDI Biennial Projection and Families
Korean Education and Employment Panel KRIVET Bennial
Korean Labor and Income Panel Study KLI Biennial
Youth Panel KEIS Biennial
Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey KEIS Biennial
Source: KEIS (2015), Medium and Long-term Labor Force and Employment Projections: 2013-23.
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 181 [Figure 3-1] Model of Labor Force and Employment Projections
1. GDP projections by industry
2. Employment coefficients projections by industry
3. Employment projections by industry
4. Industry-occupation matrix projections
5. Employment projections by industry (subsectors) 6. Employment projections by occupation
7. Supply and demand gap
8. Labor force projections
9. Working-age population projections
10. Population simulation
Source: KEIS (2015), Medium and Long-term Labor Force and Employment Projections: 2013-23.
3.3. Projections of the Supply of Labor
The main purpose of labor supply projections is to forecast trends of the working age population and labor force. The first task is forecasting the national population to arrive at projections of the working age population. The next step is predicting the rate of labor force participation. Using these two data sets, labor force projections can be obtained from the KEISIM model. Finally, the forecasting results should be aligned with the Labor Force Survey to maintain coherence. The KEISIM model, based on 1% sample data from the 2010 population census, repeatedly simulates the forecasting model with data from 2013-23. This way, the working age population and labor force projections can be obtained.
182 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 183 In this forecasting process, the KEISIM model also uses other available micro data such as the Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey (KLIPS), Youth Panel Survey (YP), Korean Women and Family Panel Survey, Korean Education and Employment Panel Survey, and education statistics. This model has many statistical modules playing their own roles. For example, the death and birth modules are used to determine the ranks of both categories. Labor force projections must be conducted step by step usually in this order: 1) population and working age population; 2) labor force; and 3) rate of labor force participation. These projections can also be conducted by demographic group classified by gender, age and education.
The first step is a population simulation, from which projections can be obtained under the KEISIM model. One advantage of the KEISIM model is that it can perform a simulation of education-specific population, which can help forecast population by demographic group. The main figures used in population forecasting come from Statistics Korea (KOSTAT).
The second step is to forecast the working age population. Again, the latter by gender, age and education can be forecast based on population projections calculated in the first step. If rates of change by gender, age and education are applied to statistics in the labor force survey, this can estimate the projected working age population by gender, age and education. In this step, the main figures of forecasting the working age population are imported from KOSTAT projections.
The third step is projections of labor force participation. Statistical time-series models of the rates of labor force participation can be devised by considering demographic variables. For example, gender, age, education, marital and householder status, and previous economic activity can be included. The economic activities of each demographic group should be determined and projected from that equation.
The combination of the above three steps thus allows forecasting the labor force (i.e., labor supply). Namely, labor force projections can be obtained from forecasts of the working age population multiplied by the projected rates of labor force participation. Together with forecasting the country’s overall labor force, projections for the labor force by gender, age and education can also be gathered by utilizing the component ratio for each personal attribute, which is projected in the third stage.
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 183 3.4. Projections of Demand for Labor
Projections of employment demand consist of three parts: 1) real value-added projections by industry; 2) projections by industry; and 3) projections by occupation or education.
The first step is to forecast the real value-added (real GDP) by industry. Since the number of jobs (i.e., labor demand) in a given industry is derived from that sector’s economic growth, projections of national economic growth and growth of real added value by industry are the first priority. In the Republic of Korea, KIET provides such figures to KEIS.
The second step is to forecast industrial demand for labor by applying an employment coefficient by industry, or the number of workers in one industry divided by the added value of that sector. This methodology of forecasting industrial demand for labor is known as the “manpower requirements approach” used mainly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US. In this approach, the number of employment projections by industry is calculated by applying employment coefficient projections by industry to real value-added projections. An employment coefficient is just the reciprocal number of labor productivity.
Though easy and convenient, this approach is inappropriate when employment coefficients change fast. So the macroeconomic and simultaneous time-series projections model could be an alternative to compensate for fluctuations of employment coefficients. This approach could mitigate fluctuations by using a vector auto-regression or error correction.
If the two-digit industrial value-added projections and the corresponding employment coefficient projections are available, employment projections at the two-digit industrial level are possible. Of course, nationwide employment or single- digit industrial employment projections are easily attainable by aggregating the two- digit projections.
The third step is to forecast employment by occupation. For this, an employment matrix of industry-occupation is needed. Matrix projections for employment by industry and occupation could be drawn using the weight factors of occupations by industry and then applying the macro-economic time series equation to the matrixes.
184 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 185 [Figure 3-2] Matrix Table of Industry-Occupation Employment
Occupation
Occ 1 Occ 2 Occ 3 Occ4 Occ 5 Occ 6 Total
Ind 1
Ind 2
Industry Ind 3
Ind 4
Ind 5
Total
Source: Uh (2017).
The fourth and final step is forecasting labor demand by skill in each occupation or industry. For this, the matrix projections by occupation-education or occupation- skill can be obtained in the same way as in the above industry-occupation matrix. The weight factors of occupation by education or skill could be projected using the employment matrix by occupation-education or occupation-skill. By applying these matrix projections to projected employment by occupation, the skill distribution in each occupation could be drawn. Of course, skill distribution by industry can be obtained from the industry-occupation matrix. Adding up industrial or occupational demand for skills results in the national demand for skill.
[Figure 3-3] Matrix Table of Occupation-Skill
Occupation
Occ 1 Occ 2 Occ 3 Occ4 Occ 5 Occ 6 Occ 7
Skill 1
Skill Skill 2
Skill 3
Skill 4
Skill 5
Skill 6
Source: Uh (2017).
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 185 3.5. Main Results of the Employment Projections
This section shows selected results of employment forecasting by industry. The goal of industry-specific projections is to contribute to devising policy toward human resource planning. If only single-digit level data on industrial production are available, industrial employment predictions can also be done at the same level. So the first step is to obtain production data from a given sector to get forecasting data on that industry.
As shown in
, employment in this industry is expected to dramatically rise because of potential demand for social work. In the second half of the period, however, the increase in this sector’s employment is projected to decrease. The number of manufacturing jobs is predicted to increase 261,000 from 4,184,000 in 2013 to 4,445,000 in 2018 (annual increase: 1.2% on average). Though the upward trend of employment in these sectors will slow from the latter half of the set period, overall employment projections in manufacturing sector look consistent growth over the next 10 years. The following business sectors are closely linked to production industries and thus will enjoy relatively higher growth in employment: professional, scientific and technical activities, business facility management and business support services. For example, an additional 454,000 are expected to find jobs over the 2013-23 period; business facility management and business support services are estimated to create about 336,000 jobs. Yet deteriorating profitability and intensifying competition will lead to job losses in finance and insurance. Construction is expected to see stagnant job growth over the long term.
Forecasting industrial employment at the two-digit level is possible with 1) industrial GDP projections at the two-digit level and 2) projected employment coefficients by the two-digit level industry. The forecasting methodology is exactly same, though a bit more complicated. Employment forecasting is limited to select strategic industries that a country has special interest in. Such sectors could include information and communication technology (ICT), tourism or hospitality. In this case, the forecasting methodology is also the same as the above but simpler.
186 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 187
The Projected Number of Jobs by Industry(Unit: 1,000 persons, %) Employment change Employment change Employment Industry (number) (annual average rate) (1-digit level) 2008 2013 2018 2023 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23
All industries 23,577 25,066 26,871 28,287 1,489 1,804 1,416 3,220 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2
A. Agriculture, forestry, and 1,686 1,520 1435 1,369 -166 -85 -67 -151 -2.1 -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 fisheries
B. Mining and quarrying 23 16 17 16 -7 1 0 0 -7.0 0.5 -0.3 0.2
C. Manufacturing 3,963 4,184 4445 4,598 222 261 153 414 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9
D. Electricity, gas, steam and 90 90 94 105 0 4 11 15 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.6 water supply
E. Sewerage, waste management, materials 66 73 77 77 67 4 0 4 64.8 1.0 0.0 0.5 recovery and remediation activities
F. Construction 1,812 1,754 1770 1,767 -58 16 -3 13 -0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1
G. Wholesale and retail trade 3,631 3,660 3986 4,082 29 326 96 422 0.2 1.7 0.5 1.1
H. Transportation 1,248 1,413 1570 1,636 165 157 66 223 2.5 2.1 0.8 1.5
I. Accommodation and food 2,044 1,971 2013 2,053 -73 42 40 82 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 service activities
J. Information and 627 692 771 873 65 79 102 181 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 communications
K. Financial and insurance 821 864 816 800 43 -48 -16 -64 1.0 -1.1 -0.4 -0.8 activities
L. Real estate activities/rental 489 485 484 485 -4 -1 0 0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 and leasing
M. Professional, scientific and 756 1,022 1205 1,358 266 183 154 336 6.2 3.3 2.4 2.9 technical activities
N. Business facility management and business 974 1,173 1373 1,627 199 200 254 454 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 support services
O. Public administration and defense, compulsory social 840 965 1057 1,128 125 92 72 163 2.8 1.8 1.3 1.6 security
P. Education 1,784 1,748 1714 1,691 -36 -34 -23 -57 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
Q. Human health and social 842 1,554 2131 2,648 712 578 516 1,094 13.0 6.5 4.4 5.5 work activities
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 187
Continued(Unit: 1,000 persons, %) Employment change Employment change Employment Industry (number) (annual average rate) (1-digit level) 2008 2013 2018 2023 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23
R. Arts, sports and recreation 419 392 418 423 -27 26 6 31 -1.3 1.3 0.3 0.8 related services
S. Membership organizations, repair and other personal 1,297 1,312 1311 1,357 15 -1 46 45 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 services
T. Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods-and-services- 150 172 178 188 22 6 10 16 2.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 producing activities of households for own use
U. Activities of extraterritorial 16 7 7 5 -9 0 -1 -2 -15.2 -1.4 -4.0 -2.8 organizations and bodies
Source: KEIS (2015, p.31).
The next step is to show employment projections by occupation. Lack of employment data by industry and occupation or the absence of a coherent industrial and occupational classification system for doing occupational projections, means alternative assessment tools such as expert advice, relevant literature and other survey results could be used as complimentary materials.
As shown in
, the projection results nine occupational categories (one-digit level) for the period show that all occupational groups are predicted to see higher employment. One exception is skilled personnel in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Among the nine occupational groups, professionals and related workers are expected to see the highest increase in employment, or about 534,000 jobs for strong growth rate of 2%. This job growth in the professionals and related workers group is seen to continue in tandem with economic development and higher education. Due to rising demand for labor in manufacturing, labor demand in production will also grow over the same period. This, in turn, will fuel job growth in equipment, machine operation and assembly, and crafts and related trades. And thanks to the development of electronic control technology and automation, equipment and machine operation will see higher job growth than crafts and related trades.
Over the past five years, managers have experienced the largest decline rate in employment. Over the survey period, however, minimal change in employment is predicted for this occupation. Forecasts also indicate more job opportunities in
188 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 189 service and office-related occupations since the Republic of Korea’s economy is heading toward the service sector such as education, health, banking and finance, and beauty. Policymakers and stakeholders need to prepare for this economic shift.
The Projected Number of Jobs by Occupation(Unit: 1,000 persons, %) Employment change Employment change Employment Industry (number) (annual average rate) (1-digit level) 2008 2013 2018 2023 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23
Total 23,577 25,066 26,871 28,287 1,489 1,804 1,416 3,220 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2
Managers 549 403 409 409 -146 6 1 6 -6.0 0.3 0.0 0.1
Professionals and 4,382 4,966 5,490 6,024 584 524 534 1,058 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 Related Workers
Clerks 3,486 4,218 4,589 4,867 732 371 278 649 3.9 1.7 1.2 1.4
Service Workers 2,655 2,575 2,886 2,990 -80 311 104 415 -0.6 2.3 0.7 1.5
Sales Workers 3,008 3,032 3,116 3,211 24 84 95 179 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6
Skilled Agricultural, Forestry 1,569 1,426 1,355 1,296 -142 -71 -59 -130 -1.9 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 and Fishery Workers
Craft and Related Trades 2,332 2,221 2,289 2,336 -112 69 47 116 -1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 Workers
Equipment, Machine Operating and Assembly 2,592 2,998 3,251 3,393 406 253 143 395 3.0 1.6 0.9 1.2 Workers
Elementary Workers 3,005 3,227 3,486 3,761 223 259 275 533 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5
Note: The classification referes to the 6th edition of the “Korea Standard Classification of Occupations (KSCO)”. Source: KEIS (2015, p.50).
Myanmar government now has a keen interest in forecasting demands for productive workers. Korea’s projection result might be helpful. Productive workers are classified as workers in equipment and machine operation and assembly under the two-digit level occupational category. The employment projections of this group are shown in
. By occupation, water treatment and recycling-related operations are expected to see the highest job growth, followed by machine production and operation, driving and transportation, metal and non-metal, wood, printing and other machinery, electrical and electronic-related machinery, and food processing.
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 189 Among occupations expected to suffer job losses, machinery operator for textiles and shoes and those in food processing will see employment dip 0.7%. Jobs for drivers and transportation staff will rise by about 200,000, followed by machine production and related operators and electrical and electronic-related machinery operators. Jobs in water treatment and recycling operations are seen to have the fastest rate of job growth.
The Projected Number of Productive Worker Jobs(Unit: 1,000 persons, %) Employment change Employment change Employment Industry (number) (annual average rate) (1-digit level) 2008 2013 2018 2023 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23 08-13 13-18 18-23 13-23
Total 2,592 2,998 3,239 3,395 406 240 156 397 3.0 1.6 0.9 1.3
Food Processing Related 79 74 73 81 -6 0 8 7 -1.5 -0.1 2.0 1.0 Operating Occupations
Textile and shoes Related Machine Operating 133 123 115 114 -10 -8 -1 -9 -1.5 -1.4 -0.1 -0.7 Occupations
Chemical Related Machine 149 178 188 194 28 10 6 16 3.5 1.1 0.6 0.9 Operating Occupations
Metal and Nonmetal Related 179 211 222 239 32 11 18 29 3.3 1.0 1.5 1.3 Operator Occupations
Machine Production and 397 497 554 583 100 58 29 87 4.6 2.2 1.0 1.6 Related Machine Operators
Electrical and Electronic 230 424 456 470 194 32 14 47 13.0 1.5 0.6 1.0 Related Machine Occupations
Driving and Transport Related 1,282 1,339 1,474 1,534 57 136 60 195 0.9 1.9 0.8 1.4 Occupations
Water Treatment and Recycling Related Operating 11 18 22 25 7 4 3 7 10.0 4.0 2.4 3.2 Occupations
Wood, Printing and Other Machine Operating 131 135 146 152 4 10 6 16 0.6 1.5 0.8 1.1 Occupations
Source: KEIS (2015, p.62).
Finally, this report introduces employment projections by skill level. Even in the Republic of Korea, an occupation-skill matrix is unavailable. In this situation, education level is considered a good proxy variable for skill level. Also, the major at each level of education could serve as a good proxy variable for skill type in each skill level. Since the latest labor force survey provides exact information on employment by education,
190 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 191 forecasting entry-level workers by education, which heavily depends on the country’s education policy, is needed. The next two tables show projections for entry-level workers in the labor market by occupation and major according to higher education level (college or more) who could be considered as having higher skill levels.
Among entry-level workers by occupation, the group of professionals and related workers are estimated to show the biggest increase in jobs, followed by that of clerks as shown in
. The number of entry-level workers in the first group is expected to increase, while that in the clerks group is seen to fall. Employment in these occupations is predicted to further decrease by 2023. Based on these forecasts, the Republic of Korea government and related interest groups, for example, could prepare for the future when deciding majors. Projected Entry-level Workers by Occupation (College or Higher)(Unit: 1,000 persons)
2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 2014-2023
Managers -27 56 35 91
Professionals and Related 980 1,034 1,058 2,092 Workers
Clerks 816 608 498 1,106
Service Workers 143 154 104 258
Sales Workers 173 142 131 273
Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and 31 18 16 33 Fishery Workers
Craft and Related Trades Workers 105 79 67 146
Equipment, Machine Operating 163 111 99 209 and Assembly Workers
Elementary Workers 64 77 96 174
Total 2,447 2,280 2,103 4,383
Source: KEIS (2015, p.92).
Forecasting entry-level workers by major is possible as shown in
. The results show that most entry-level workers will have majored in humanities, social sciences and engineering, followed by arts and sports, education, medicine and natural sciences. These predictions provide valuable information to policymakers as well as students and their parents. Career guidance and job counseling offices could also utilize this information.Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 191
Projected Entry-level Workers by Major (College or Higher)(Unit: 1,000 persons)
2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 2014-2023
Humanities and Social Sciences 718 747 724 1,471
Art and Sports 364 255 237 491
Education 266 196 234 430
Natural Science 18 153 149 301
Engineering 878 779 605 1,385
Medicine 203 150 155 305
Total 2,447 2,280 2,103 4,383
Source: KEIS (2015, p.93).
Projections of industrial and occupational employment can shape a few policy recommendations. For example, the disproportionate creation of job opportunities could prove problematic in the industrial or occupational sectors. If a speedy transition among sectors occurs, more efforts are needed to retrain employed workers and educate entry-level staff to meet this change. More should also be done toward making stringers the link between industries and employment capacity through integration and coordination among stakeholders and governmental bodies.
The projections also incur limitations and problems. One major difficulty in forecasting is reflecting diverse factors such as government policy, external economic shocks and political shifts. This requires the proper combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, meaning scientific forecasting professionals have a long way to go.
4. Policy Recommendations
The Myanmar government in 2016 conducted a major survey of its labor force and employment for the first time since 1990, when the Household Labor Force Sample Survey was published. The country has thus conducted just two major studies of this kind over the last 25 years. Forecasting the country’s labor force and employment based on these two observations is nearly impossible. So Myanmar is advised to find alternative ways of forecasting its labor market when the sample sizes are too small. This paper suggests two alternative methods to forecast market-driven demand for labor.
192 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 193 The first method is to focus on the country’s strategic industries such as agriculture, garments, wood processing or ICT-based businesses. Focus on one industry can easily identify that sector’s occupations and skills. For example, the major occupations in the garment industry are fashion designer, pattern worker, sewing machine operator, garment cutter, washing machine operator, ironing worker, production manager and quality control manager. The major occupations in wood processing are product designer, wood processing machine operator, wood craftsman, wood inspector, furniture assembler, painter, production manager and quality control manager.7)
Based on the important jobs in each strategic industry, the Myanmar government could conduct a quick sample survey on the sector’s employment and skill levels. Then the employment distribution by occupation in each industry could be acquired from the survey, and could be extended for forecasting employment. Since the industry’s production is known, an employment coefficient by occupation could be derived by dividing industrial production by employment of each occupation.
If the Myanmar government conducts longer time-series surveys, time-series employment coefficients could be made to make forecasting more accurate because changes in the employment coefficients can be considered in forecasting procedures. This methodology will work even with just one observation.
The next step is to get a figure from forecasting industrial production, like a 10% increase the next year. Then occupational projections for the industry are easily obtainable from the following equation. Among time-series employment coefficients, the 2017 employment coefficient by occupation can be replaced simply by the forecast employment coefficient by occupation.
2018 employment projections by occupation = 2017 industrial production × 1.1 × 2017 employment coefficient by occupation
The second methodology is to borrow the employment coefficients of select industries from other economies with similar economic structures and national incomes, like Vietnam. Even the Republic of Korea’s economy in the past is considered a model for employment projections. If time-series data on employment coefficients of the relevant industries in Myanmar are available, forecasting employment coefficients is possible in the near future. The next step is exactly same as the methodology mentioned above.
7) The listed occupations in the two industries were also found to be important in skills and job opportunities in a March 2017 visit to garment and wood processing companies in Yangon, Myanmar.
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 193 2018 employment projections by occupation = 2017 industrial production × 1.1 × forecast employment coefficient by occupation
In short, only two data sets are needed for simple forecasting of employment in one industry: the forecast value of industrial production and the forecast employment coefficient by occupation in that industry. This eliminates the need for the complicated method of employment forecasting by using an industry-occupation matrix.
Policy recommendations for better forecasting of employment and skills by industry and occupation are follows.
(1) Forecasting can be conducted by a couple of experts. The process needed to make projections is obtaining the available data, setting the model and making an industry-occupation matrix. The Myanmar government thus needs to build the capacity of such experts. A better idea is to offer two to three statistical officers in the Department of Labor the opportunity to learning forecasting methodology at advanced institutions abroad, like KEIS. Or a KEIS expert could visit Myanmar to give lectures on forecasting methodology to Myanmar officers responsible for labor market forecasting. In addition to learning forecasting methodology, such officers should also explore the Republic of Korea’s experience in implementing strategies of producing statistical data and aligning labor market forecasting with policy toward industry and TVET.
(2) Inter-governmental cooperation is emphasized again for better forecasting of employment and skills. Key information on industrial production can be obtained with help from the MOI. Also, current and, more importantly, projected population data could be attained with the help of the CSO. Those two data sets are essential for forecasting. Furthermore, definitions and classifications of statistical variables (e.g., industry or occupation) should be identical in every survey, even if carried out by many ministries.
(3) The labor force survey, based on the population census, is needed on a regular basis. Because time-series data of more than ten years are essential for forecasting labor markets, an annual survey is strongly recommended. The 2015 survey on the labor force seemed to meet international standards in sample size, survey methodology and relevance of questionnaires. Thus Myanmar is ready to conduct this survey on an annual basis.
(4) Also, a census on businesses in Myanmar is needed soon and, more importantly, on a regular basis. Household surveys are known to have
194 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 195 limits in assessing the size of employment by industry and/or occupation. More importantly, the census is crucial for conducting a sample survey of businesses because samples can be randomly chosen only from the census. Based on the business census, Myanmar can conduct quick surveys on demand for employment and skills in the country’s strategic industries.
(5) For labor market forecasting, the following historical data are needed for at least the next ten years. For the supply side: working age (15 or older) population and rates of labor force participation by age, gender and education. For the demand side: GDP for selected industries, number of workers and its decomposition by the selected occupations for each industry. For projections: GDP forecasts for selected industries and projections for working age population by age, gender and education. The top priority is thus production and accumulation of official data on the labor market.
(6) The Myanmar government can benchmark models of labor market projections used by advanced economies to build its own model of projections for the labor force and employment. Such foreign models include the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS model) of the US, the Institute for Employment Research (IES model) of Britain, Institute fur Arbeitsmark und Berufsforschung (IAB model) of Germany, and the Research Center for Education and the Labor Market (ROA model) of the Netherlands.
Chapter 3 _ Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market • 195 References
Ministry of Labor, Immigration and Population, Department of Labor (MOLIP), Report on Myanmar Labor Force Survey-2015, 2016. Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS), Medium and Long-term Labor Force and Employment Projections: 2013-2013, 2015. Kyaw Kyaw Lwin, “Survey on Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market in Myanmar”, presented at the 2017 Seoul KSP workshop, 2017. Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development (MNPED), National Comprehensive Development Plan: A Prosperous Nation Integrated into the Global Community 2030, 2015. Myo Aung, Myanmar Economic Policy 12-point Outline Releases July 29,2016 & Effects, 2016. NLD, Economic Strategy and Priorities: Freedom and Security for Prosperity, 2015. Uh, Soobong, “Chapter 2: Vocational Training System for a Skilled Workforce”, in KDI, Strengthening the Foundation of Industrialization of Myanmar, 2015. , “Chapter 4: NCS-based Skills Assessment and Vocational Training in Myanmar”, in KDI, 2015/16 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar: Building Capacity for Development Policy Foundation in Myanmar, 2016. , “Mid-term Report on Survey of Skill Needs Assessment for Workforce throughout the Country for Demand-driven Labor Market”, presented in 2016/17 KSP with Myanmar: Interim Reporting Work shop, 2017. UNDP and CSO, Myanmar Business Survey 2015: Data Report, 2016.
196 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar: Beyond Economic Liberalization: Chapter 4 New Policy Challenges for Myanmar
A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar
1. Introduction 2. Rural Environment in Myanmar 3. Rural Development Policies in Myanmar 4. Rural Development Experience in Korea 5. Policies and Strategies for Rural Development in Myanmar ■ Chapter 04
A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar
In Park (Korea Institute for Rural Development) Jeong-Youn Kim (Korea Institute for Rural Development) Aung Zay Hlaing (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation)
Summary
The Myanmar government has implemented many programs and projects to raise farmer income and productivity in agricultural development. In 2017, it is preparing agricultural policy and thrusts for a second five-year development plan.
In addition, the government has also undertaken strategies and projects for community and rural development, including the Village Development Plan (VDP) of the Regional Development Strategic Framework (RDSF), Poverty Alleviating Rural Development (PARD), Livelihood and Food Security Trust Fund (LIFT), National Community Driven Development Plan (NCDDP) and Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement).
The NCDDP was initially established in 2013 by the Myanmar government with support from the World Bank. In 2015, the project was scaled up to additional financing support from the government, World Bank and Italy. The NCDDP is implemented by the Department of Rural Development (DRD) under Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI).
The NCDDP seeks to enable poor rural communities to benefit from improved access to and use of basic infrastructure and services through a people-centered approach. The DRD in November 2013 began implementation of the project in three townships. When the Technical, Cost Effectiveness and Sustainability Audit was being
198 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 199 done in March 2016, the project had completed two cycles and financed over 2,000 sub-projects in nine townships across Myanmar. The NCDDP provides grants to village tracts to finance the construction of rural, community-level civil infrastructure such as buildings, bridges, water supply, roads and electricity.
Since 2012, the World Bank has provided USD 80 million in block grants and USD 400 million in loans for community development. Each village prioritizes the proposed subprojects to share the grant among villages every year. In 2016, 27 townships were running and 20 were added for 8,500 villages in 400 village tracts of 47 townships; the plan is to expand to 63 townships.
The Village Development Plan (VDP) comprises 5,385 villages in 29 townships under the Rural Development Strategic Framework (RDSF); that priority goes to everything else such as education and technical assistance is received. The DRD has followed the VDP to develop a national model of full participation by communities and households from all socioeconomic background. In particular, forming formal organizations such as farmer cooperatives is not easy.
For running the Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement) in rural Myanmar, 100 villages were selected under criteria such as promotional effect and location in mountainous and plains areas under a three-year plan. This was started with the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, which has been changed to MOALI.
Rural areas in Myanmar will strengthen their socioeconomic and spatial links with urban areas amid the country’s acceleration in economic growth and improvement of rural road transportation systems. In Lewe Township, rural residents in village tracts and villages around the main roads leading to the new city of Nay Pyi Taw or Dekkhinathiri have increased interactions with rural centers.
Lewe has a 2013 township plan that includes social and rural development, land use and infrastructure development; this is a rural center plan but not a theoretical and practical aspect of Integrated Rural Development (IRD).
Survey, analysis and diagnosis in Lewe were conducted for IRD that represent the characteristics of rural areas, such as the rural center, which is highly integrated with the urban economy and general rural and depopulated remote rural areas.
The survey identified as important tasks improvement of roads, transportation, health care and social welfare services in villages and village tracts, higher and more diverse living services in small towns, and improvement of transportation services. In addition, the crucial development items for living convenience and revitalization of rural areas were found to be roads and traffic, medical services, and educational and welfare facilities and programs.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 199 Residents of rural villages buy most of their home appliances in Lewe town. This town, however, is also important as a rural center for private secondary education and medical services as well as home appliances.
In addition, medical care and hospitalization and public administrative services must be offered in towns or nearby cities. Most students in rural villages attend primary school in the nearest village in a village tract. Secondary education is provided in a village tract but this is not common. Most students in rural villages attend secondary school in Lewe town.
The rural center is growing in importance in that people living near Lewe town often visit the town to buy goods and services for daily life. Another advantage is to the ability to sell agricultural products and produce processed products in village for easy sale in Lewe town.
The results of the survey of Lewe town shows a pressing need to streamline not only the collecting, processing and distributing of agricultural products for farmer incomes, but also improve roads and public transportation, health and medical facilities and services, and educational centers and services for improving quality of life. The Myanmar government soon needs to focus on IRD.
To prepare for IRD, a new paradigm for rural development in Myanmar should aim for rural-urban IRD to preemptively respond to industrialization and urbanization at rural centers to meet the basic needs of rural residents and pursue endogenous rural development via rural-urban linkage. To implement a rural-urban IRD plan, the government must change its linking strategy for conceptual structure of the rural settlement system, as well as improve policy toward promotion of IRD.
Policy proposals for IRD include the setup of a proper legal system, designation of the main administrative department, establishment of a cooperative and delivery system of the related department and agencies, devising an IRD plan linking rural- urban functions, securing financial resources, systematization, and plans for boosting resident participation and organization and infrastructure.
For successful IRD and to emphasize the necessity of such development to expand in the stage of rural development, key tasks include strengthening the capacity- building ability of farmers, improving socio-economic conditions and infrastructure in rural areas, boosting capacity-building ability of state and local governments, publishing an IRD textbook, and training instructors and running an IRD training institute.
200 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 201 1. Introduction
Myanmar has implemented policy and a series of agricultural development programs and projects to raise agricultural income and productivity. The government in 2017 is preparing agricultural policy and thrusts for a second five-year plan.
In addition, government strategies and projects for community and rural development include the Village Development Plan (VDP) of the Regional Development Strategic Framework (RDSF), Poverty Alleviating Rural Development (PARD), Livelihood and Food Security Trust Fund (LIFT), National Community Driven Development Plan (NCDDP) and Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement).
The NCDDP was initially established in 2013 by the Myanmar government with support from the World Bank. In 2015, the project was scaled up thanks to additional financing support from the government, World Bank and Italy. The NCDDP is implemented by the Department of Rural Development (DRD) under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI).
The NCDDP seeks to enable poor rural communities to benefit from improved access to and use of basic infrastructure and services through a people-centered approach. The DRD in November 2013 began the project’s implementation in three townships. As the Technical, Cost Effectiveness and Sustainability Audit was being conducted in March 2016, the project had completed two cycles and financed over 2,000 sub-projects in nine townships across the country: Kanpetlet, Pinlebu, Kyunsu, Sidoktaya, Ann, Htantabin, Namhsan, Laymyetnar and Tatkon. The NCDDP provides grants to village tracts to finance the construction of rural, community-level civil infrastructure such as buildings, bridges, water supply, roads and electricity.
Since 2012, the World Bank has provided USD 80 million in block grants and USD 400 million in loans for community development. The Technical Assistance Team consists of a community facilitator fluent in ethnic languages and a technical facilitator with a background in civil and electrical engineering. This is similar to the community development mechanism. Each village prioritizes proposed subprojects to share a grant it receives every year. 2016 saw 27 existing townships and 20 new ones added for 8,500 villages in 400 village tracts of 47 townships; the plan is to raise the number of townships to 63.
The VDP covers 5,385 villages in 29 townships under the RDSF; priority goes to everything such as education and technical assistance is received. DRD has followed this approach to develop a national model for village development planning utilizing the full participation of village communities and households from all socioeconomic
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 201 backgrounds. The formation of proper organizations such as farming cooperatives has been difficult in Myanmar because of the previous ban on such organizations.
For Saemaul Undong, or the New Community Movement that helped to industrialize the Republic of Korea from the 1970s, 100 villages in Myanmar were selected based on criteria such as promotional effect and location in a mountain village and plain area and promoted under a three-year plan. This project was started by the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, which is now under MOALI.
Though the Myanmar agricultural sector possesses immense potential to develop into a catalyst for reducing poverty and removing food insecurity, major constraints hold back its advancement. Such obstacles include low investment; insufficient rural, physical and social infrastructure; inadequate sum of agricultural loans; lack of microcredit; low utilization of improved seeds and fertilizer; high level of waste; inefficient land policy including low levels of security for land use rights, tenure and ownership; and limited access to market and agricultural information networks that need rural centers in townships to greatly improve quality of life in rural areas.
In Myanmar, most rural villages are far away from towns or cities and road conditions are poor. Since the size of the village and village tract is large, efforts to meet the basic needs of residents of villages or village tracts must continue.
The rural center is growing more important in rural areas. Villagers living near Lewe town often visit the town to buy goods and services. Selling agricultural and processed products made in the village is also advantageous. To minimize the relative lag of rural areas in urbanization and industrialization, regional changes must be predicted to devise a urban-rural plan for IRD.
The IRD plan for townships is based on priorities for regional and sectoral development, availability of financial resources, personnel, institutional arrangements and managerial resources, homogeneous characteristics and development potential within the area, and development strategies for specific sectors based on the best program considering rural-urban linkage.
To emphasize IRD’s necessity in advancing rural development, key tasks include raising the capacity-building ability of farmers and improving socioeconomic conditions and infrastructure in rural areas, since there is a limit to improve the quality of life in rural area focusing on the agricultural and community development only that has a close relationship especially industrialization in rural center and rural development each other. So setting a long-term IRD direction considering rural- urban links is needed.
202 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 203 2. Rural Environment in Myanmar
2.1. Socioeconomic Situation
2.1.1. Administrative Units and Population
Myanmar is composed of seven states, seven regions and one union territory (Nay Pyi Taw). Under these administrative units are 73 districts, 330 townships, 417 towns, 3,154 wards, 13,610 village tracts and 63,899 villages1) as reported by the Ministry of Home Affairs on Jan. 7, 2015, below.
The Number of Administrative AreasVillage No. Region / State Districts Townships Towns Wards Villages tracts 1 Kachin 4 18 29 152 597 2,582
2 Kayah 2 7 8 31 74 511
3 Kayin 4 7 18 84 376 2,063
4 Chin 3 9 13 40 470 1,346
5 Sagaing 9 37 46 229 1,761 6,005
6 Tanintharyi 3 10 16 83 264 1,230
7 Bago 4 28 42 288 1,418 6,495
8 Magwe 5 25 27 166 1,539 4,795
9 Mandalay 7 28 28 270 1,416 4,781
10 Mon 2 10 16 98 369 1,150
11 Rakhine 5 17 22 143 1,035 3,760
12 Yangon 4 45 21 742 619 2,129
13 Shan 13 55 84 498 1,566 14,348
14 Ayeyawady 6 26 39 273 1,919 11,908
15 Nay Pyi Taw 2 8 8 57 187 796
Total 73 330 417 3,154 13,610 63,899
Source: 2014 census and others.
1) “Summary List of States/Regions including Nay Pyi Taw, Districts, Townships, Towns, Wards, Village Tracts and Villages in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar” issued by Ministry of Home Affairs on Jan. 7, 2015.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 203 According to the 2014 census, Myanmar’s population was 51,419,420; 70.4% (see Table 4-2) of the people lived in rural areas and the remaining 29.6% in urban areas. Most rural people are poor because rural poverty remains high as 36% of the rural population lives below the poverty line. Poverty alleviation programs should thus focus on rural and agricultural development because rural residents primarily rely on agriculture for their income.
According to Article 13 of the Ward or Village Tract Administration Law of 2012, village tract administrators have 32 functions and duties and are under the supervision of township officers from the General Administration Department (GAD) under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA). GAD supervises and manages all non- forest, non-farm, town, village and religious land, riverbanks, ponds, cemeteries, village common grounds, grazing pastures and disposable state territory.
Myanmar’s land area is 669,794km2 with 330 townships. The following table provides an overview of the national population and the size and number of townships in the country’s states and regions.2)
Population by State or RegionCensus 2014 Land area Regions / No. of TSs States 2 Population % % urban % rural Km %
1 Kachin 1,689,654 3.3 35.94 64.06 88,980 13.3 18
2 Kayah 286,738 0.6 25.3 74.7 11,760 1.8 7
3 Kayin 1,572,657 3.1 21.9 78.1 30,327 4.5 7
4 Chin 478,690 0.9 20.9 79.1 36,277 5.4 9
5 Sagaing 5,320,299 10.3 17.1 82.9 93,873 14.0 37
6 Tanintharyi 1,406,434 2.7 24.0 76 41,061 6.1 10
7 Bago 4,863,455 9.5 22.0 78 38,867 5.8 28
8 Magway 3,912,711 7.6 15.1 84.9 45,025 6.7 25
9 Mandalay 6,145,588 12.0 34.8 65.2 30,999 4.6 31
10 Mon 2,050,282 4.0 27.8 72.2 11,242 1.7 10
11 Rakhine 3,188,963 6.2 16.9 83.1 35,020 5.2 17
12 Yangon 7,355,075 14.3 70.1 29.9 9,917 1.5 45
2) The State of Local Governance: Trends in Myanmar, A Synthesis of People’s Perspectives Across All States and Regions - UNDP Myanmar 2015
204 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 205
ContinuedCensus 2014 Land area Regions / No. of TSs States 2 Population % % urban % rural Km %
13 Shan 5,815,384 11.3 24.0 76 155,672 23.2 55
14 Ayeyarwaddy 6,175,123 12.0 14.1 85.9 33,705 5.0 26
15 Nay Pyi Taw 1,158,367 2.3 32.5 67.5 7,069 1.1 5
Total 51,419,420 100.0 29.6 70.4 669,794 100.0 330
Source: 2014 census and others.
2.1.2. Alleviation of Rural Poverty
Myanmar’s National Strategy for Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation aimed to halve the poverty rate from 32% in 2005 to 16% by 2015. As of 2010, around 26% of the population was living below the national poverty line.3)
Poverty and food insecurity are two of the country’s most pressing challenges as the government seeks to achieve inclusive and sustainable development by 2015 under Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Economic growth has averaged around 5% per year despite the 2008 global financial crisis, and the levels of income poverty and food insecurity have been reduced since 2005. The country is taking steps toward promoting a pro-poor and inclusive “green growth” strategy, which has proven beneficial in many countries in combating poverty and eliminating food insecurity.4)
Income poverty in Myanmar, as elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, is a multifaceted phenomenon characterized by acute economic and social deprivations. Fortunately, declines in all poverty-related indicators are evident. The Integrated Household Living Conditions Assessment (IHLCA), the first of its kind in the country, showed that the national poverty headcount index in 2005 was about 32%, with rural poverty (36%) being sharply higher than urban poverty (22%). By 2010, the most recent IHLCA found that poverty-related indicators displayed marked improvement. Poverty fell to 25.6% on the national level, with that in rural areas declining to 29.2% and urban poverty falling to 15.7%. This represented a major gain within a short time; Myanmar in 2010 had lower poverty than in comparable Asian least developed countries (LDCs) like Cambodia (30.1%).5)
3) Integrated Household Living Conditions Assessments (IHLCAs). 4) See the proceedings of the ESCAP/Government of Myanmar Development Partnership Forum: Economic Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction, December 2009 for a discussion on some of these issues in the context of Myanmar. 5) MNPED and UNDP, IHLCA, 2010.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 205 Poverty also varies by region in Myanmar. Among agro-ecological zones, those on the coast have the highest poverty rate (53.1%) and the Dry Zone has the lowest (29.5%). The poverty rates for the hills and Ayeyarwady Delta zones are 40.9% and 40.4%, respectively. Among regions and states, Rakhine Region (coastal zone) has the country’s highest poverty rate of 78% followed by Chin State (hills zone), which borders Bangladesh, with 71.5%. This is because most workers in fisheries live in the coastal zone and probably make up the bulk of the poor there.
The rural poor account for 84% of the country’s poor. The employment- population ratio rose from 54.3% to 57.1% from 2005-10. Moderate malnutrition in Myanmar fell marginally from 34.3% to 32% over the same period. The incidence of poverty declined faster in urban areas than in rural. Consequently, rural poverty remains considerably higher than urban.
According to official national account estimates for 2010, Myanmar agriculture employed 52% of the country’s workforce—mostly comprising small and marginal landholders—and generated almost 37% of GDP. Small landowners accounted for 90% of total parcels devoted to annual crops. These occupied 93% of the overall area for household crop holdings. Paddy was produced on 22.87 million acres in 2010. Over the years, Myanmar’s paddy production has averaged less than five acres per household. By 2010, about five million households worked in agriculture, which employed approximately 20 million people (the sector employed an estimated 26 million in 2010), a large chunk of the country’s overall number of rural workers of nearly 36 million.6)
About 30% of the rural population are landless and lack income other than from agricultural labor. In addition, some 37% of rural households have landholdings of less than two hectares. As a result, 36% of the rural population lives below the poverty line, considerably higher than the national rate of 26%.7)
2.1.3. Education
Myanmar has made impressive advancements in indicators for basic education targets from 2000-10. They include near-universal initial enrollment in primary school; gender parity in enrollment in primary and secondary schools, though female participation in tertiary education is significantly higher than that of males; expansion of secondary education through the opening of post-primary schools; inclusion of life skills education in the primary school curriculum and pre-service teacher training;
6) Formulation and Operationalization of National Action Plan for Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development through Agriculture (NAPA), Working Paper 10: Land Tenure and Administration, FAO and MOALI, June 2016. 7) Sector Assessment (Summary): Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Rural Development, Country Operations Business Plan: Myanmar, 2015-17_ Asian Development Bank (ADB).
206 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 207 development of standards for early childhood education (ECE) and child friendly schools (CFS); expansion of the number of schools offering ECE; and pilot operation of a Grade 1 transition curriculum in 12 townships. Despite such progress, however, fundamental challenges remain in Myanmar education. Considerable variations linger between states and divisions in education performance.
While the national literacy rate is high for youths (ages 15-24) with little gender disparity (95.8% for boys and 96.3% for girls, UNICEF 2012), imbalances start from the secondary level, especially between the poorest and richest groups. While primary school enrollment is high at about 100%, it drops at the secondary level to 44% in rural areas.
This is because poor households in rural areas face constraints such as distance to secondary schools, the direct cost of sending children to school (such as for books and uniforms and sometimes a teacher’s pay), and the opportunity cost for parents who need their children to work. Those who cannot afford to attend government schools go to monastic schools.8)
Myanmar’s education budget grew from MMK 310 billion (USD 310 million) in fiscal 2010/11 to MMK 1,142 billion (USD 1,142 million) in fiscal 2014/15. While this spending represents just 5.92% of the national budget and a mere 1.33% of GDP, it marks a significant increase from five years ago.
2.1.4. Health Care
Key obstacles to spurring progress in improved health include reproductive health outcomes that include barriers within the health system, those related to socioeconomic and environmental factors, and those related to global trade and economic factors.
Child survival in Myanmar has improved over the past decade, with the rates of infant mortality and children under five declining over the period. The rate of neonatal mortality saw a slower decline than that of children under five. Myanmar’s Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) was an estimated 200 per 100,000 live births in 2010. Despite the MMR decline between 1990 and 2010, hitting the MDG 5 target of 130 per 100,000 live births by 2015 remained a challenge. Myanmar since 1990 has significantly reduced the number of births unattended by skilled health professionals yet according to 2010 data, 20% of births still lack the supervision of such personnel.
8) Formulation and Operationalization of National Action Plan for Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development through Agriculture (NAPA), Working Paper 8: Rural employment, FAO and MOALI, June 2016.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 207 The country has an estimated 1,778 rural and 8,262 sub-rural health centers. Not all of the estimated 13,610 village tracts have a rural or sub-rural health center. In addition, the Ministry of Health and Sports cannot deploy midwives to every such center because of limited human resources and budget.
The national health budget has grown from MMK 92 billion (USD 92 million) in fiscal 2010/11 to MMK 652 billion (USD 652 million) in fiscal 2014/15. Though a huge increase, the latter amount was just 3.38% of the government budget and 0.76% of GDP in fiscal 2014/15.
2.1.5. Banking and Finance
The Myanmar Agriculture Development Bank (MADB), a name most rural Myanmarese is familiar with, dominates the country’s agriculture and rural development. Commercial banks are neither structured nor geared to extend microfinance, and private banks shun it partly because of regulatory reasons and lack of interest.
Farmers obtain and repay loans in person and in cash at MADB branches. Loans are repaid immediately after harvest. Both interest and principal are repaid at the end of the loan term. The MADB charges 5% in annual interest on loans to provide financing for a limited number of crops, but this excludes funds to produce fruits and vegetables. MADB products seek to support the working capital needs of customers by covering a fraction of the production cost. Interest rates on MADB loans have fallen substantially over the last five years. The bank charges annual interest of 5% on loans, significantly lower than those on loans from other market players.9)
While commercial bank branches appear to have the country’s largest retail network, their concentration in urban areas means that most Myanmar’s lack access to financial services. Commercial banks are the nation’s largest and biggest credit providers of regulated credit in volume of loans outstanding, but one of the smallest in the number of clients. Many clients of commercial banks are businesses that mostly receive credit for high income, not retail or small farmers.10)
The rural financial market has been traditionally run via informal arrangements. Informal sources mainly supply short-term credit under terms that reflect the weak bargaining power of the borrower. Almost all wards or villages in Myanmar have money lenders who offer a significant proportion of loans to the market. Credit
9) Formulation and Operationalization of National Action Plan for Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development through Agriculture (NAPA), Working Paper 9: Rural Finance, FAO and MOALI, June 2016. 10) Formulation and Operationalization of National Action Plan for Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development through Agriculture (NAPA), Working Paper 8: Rural Employment, FAO and MOALI, June 2016.
208 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 209 they extend exceeds the number of credit clients of the MADB, and the estimated loan volume of outstanding loans from money lenders is on a level comparable to commercial banks. A direct result of this unregulated lending practice is that much of the country’s financial intermediation is individualized, meaning people with savings directly extend credit rather than intermediate savings through a financial institution. It limits the financial sector’s ability to aggregate savings and facilitates large-scale investment. The money lenders as a group are comparable to the commercial banking sector in the size of their outstanding loan volumes.
In addition to the providers discussed above, other unregulated community- based entities provide credit. Community-based assistance groups provide financial and nonfinancial support. Community-based organizations such as village revolving funds and savings and credit groups also perform a similar role. Community-based assistance groups such as societies offering free funerals seem much more prevalent, and help health, education and the elderly as well as chip in funds for welfare purposes.11)
Three types of licensed cooperatives provide financial services: Microfinance (MFI), financial cooperatives and agricultural cooperatives. Agricultural cooperatives have seen rapid credit expansion and started lending to members thanks to funding from the Export-Import Bank of China.
With 7,635 branches and pawnshops, cooperatives have the country’s largest regulated footprint among credit providers. They have a greater reach in rural areas but only recently started offering credit to members. Financial cooperatives with 2,268 branches operate almost exclusively in urban areas.12)
2.1.6. Infrastructure
The report dubbed The State of Local Governance: Trends in Myanmar, A Synthesis of People’s Perspectives across all states and regions - UNDP Myanmar 2015 led to the question “What is the most important problem in your village tract or ward”; this can be looked at in several ways.
While the views of respondents greatly vary across states and regions as well as townships, water is seen as the major development issue for almost 21% of respondents overall. Water was the biggest problem for the majority of respondents in six states and regions who accounted for about 33% of the national population. Bad roads were cited as the biggest problem by about 17% of the respondents, as well as the majority of people in four states and regions who represented about 37
11) Ibid. 12) Ibid.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 209 % of the population. In two regions, health was perceived as the largest problem for residents, who made up about 23% of the national population. Overall, about 12% of respondents called health their biggest problem.
Electricity and lack of jobs stand out as major problems in two states. 24% of Kachin respondents complained of electricity. 21% of Kayin respondents cited lack of jobs as their most important problem. Both states each account for about 3% of the national population. Overall, 14% of respondents named electricity as their main problem and about 17% lack of jobs. Interestingly, none of the states and regions mentioned education as their residents’ worst problem, and it was also not the second-most mentioned issue. On average, only 7% of respondents cited education as the main issue, mainly those in Rakhine (13%) and Kachin (10%).
Lack of jobs was the second major problem mentioned by respondents representing 57% of the national population, the highest percentage calling the problem the second-most pressing issue. Looking at the top two cited development issues, lack of jobs had the highest score in six states and regions that account for about 60% of the national population, followed by bad roads, which were either the most or second-most cited problem in six states and regions that account for about 53% of the population, and water, which was the first or second most mentioned problem in eight states and regions with about 47% of the population.
The overall conclusion is that the three priority areas requiring further attention in development planning are road infrastructure, water supply and employment. That said, the data emerging from the townships covered in this survey and in all states and regions also clearly show huge variations among localities in the perception of development problems; the approach of “one size fits all” is thus inappropriate and development needs to be tailored for each locality.13)
Myanmar has 142,395km of road networks that are further classified as union highways (18,740km), township network roads (19,045km), major city and other roads (26,472km), and village and border area roads (78,183km).14)
Overall, the top three priorities for development planning are road infrastructure, water supply and employment.
13) The State of Local Governance: Trends in Myanmar, A Synthesis of People’s Perspectives across All States and Regions - UNDP Myanmar 2015. 14) Formulation and Operationalization of National Action Plan for Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development through Agriculture (NAPA), Working Paper 6: Coastal Resources Management, FAO and MOALI, June 2016.
210 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 211 2.1.7. Water and Sanitation
Nearly all households in the Dry Zone had year-round access to a water source (94.6%), though only two-thirds of households (64.5%) use protected water resources and the remaining third unprotected water sources (like springs) within a year.
A look at seasonal variations surprisingly found little difference: rainy season 71.9%, winter 66.9% and summer 69.9%, and no evidence arose of differences between the zones in any season (i.e., about a third of households in the Dry Zone use unprotected water sources in a year). Among specific sources, a consistent pattern was seen in the seasons, with the majority accessing tube wells and boreholes (46.3, 48.1 and 51.5% in rainy season, winter and summer, respectively), followed by protected hand dug wells (14.8, 15.1 and 15.5%) and unprotected springs (11.7, 15.3 and 16.5%). While ponds were the fourth major source in the rainy season (10.7%) and winter (8.3%), streams and rivers were more important than ponds (4.1%) in summer (7.6%). This is consistent with the results of the village profile.15)
Myanmar is known to potentially have 1,576.6km3 of water resources, with less than 10% of available water resources utilized annually.
The area of net irrigated territory reached 2.28 million hectares in 2009. Water management is critical for securing food security. Net irrigated areas accounted for 15.5% of the net area sown in 2009, up from 12.6% in 1988. Consequently, cropping intensity rose from 140% in 1995 to 158% in 2013. Most irrigated areas are used for paddy production, which jumped from 18.58 million tons in 1995 to 27.7 million tons in 2013.
Myanmar has completed main irrigation infrastructure but distribution canals and water courses to farming fields remain under construction. Renovation of the distribution canals of completed dams and reservoirs has also been delayed due to limited maintenance budget. Extension and education activities for efficient utilization of irrigation water by water users are also inefficient due to suboptimal on-farm research and demonstration. Thus the expansion of irrigated areas by improving irrigation efficiency holds huge potential.16)
Nearly half of households (47.4%) reported using a Ventilated Improved Pit (VIP) latrine and 12.1% a flush or pit latrine with a slab. Yet a fourth (25.1%) of
15) A Nutrition and Food Security Assessment of the Dry Zone of Myanmar in June and July 2013, Save the Children, WFP and the Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development, February 2014. 16) Formulation and Operationalization of National Action Plan for Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development through Agriculture (NAPA), Working Paper 1, Corp Production, Extension and Research, FAO and MOALI, June 2016.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 211 households lacked access to a latrine and might have been forced to practice open defecation. Again, no evidence of differences by zone was found.17)
2.1.8. Information and Communications Technology
The majority (60%) of Myanmarese rely on communication through the system of household heads, which serve as the main channel of information in rural (63%) as well as urban areas. Second among urban respondents is television (55%), while rural respondents primarily use their village tract administrator (46%) to get information.
Overall, peers like friends, family or village residents are the second-most important information source (44%). Apart from radio, mass media like TV and newspapers clearly play a bigger role in urban areas.
In general, verbal communication remains the top information channel for both rural and urban respondents, who are crucial components in how government- related messages get to people and constitute the key medium in passing on information to rural farmers.
Again, the ward and village tract administrators (WVTAs) play a critical role here, as they receive information from township administrators and share directly with people and/or the household heads.
In practice, how information is spread heavily depends on the willingness and attitude of individual WVTAs.18)
2.2. Case Study of Lewe Township
2.2.1. Administrative Area and Population
2.2.1.1. Administrative Unit
Lewe Township belongs to the Dekkhina district of Nay Pyi Taw, the nation’s capital that consists of the districts Ottara (meaning north) and Dekkhina (meaning south). Ottara has four townships-Tatkon, Zayarthiri, Ottarathiri and Pobbathiri -and Dekkhinathiri also has four townships of Pyinmana, Lewe, Zabuthiri and Dekhhinathiri. The capital has eight townships, eight towns, 57 wards, 187 village tracts and 796 villages. The details are shown in the table below.
17) A Nutrition and Food Security Assessment of the Dry Zone of Myanmar in June and July 2013, Save the Children, WFP and the Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development, February 2014. 18) The State of Local Governance: Trends in Myanmar, A Synthesis of People’s Perspectives across All States and Regions - UNDP Myanmar 2015.
212 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 213
Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory (Council Area)No. District Township Towns Wards Village tracts Villages
1) Tatkon Tatkon 6 49 176
Ottara 2) Zeyarthiri Zeyarthiri 4 13 65 1 (North) 3) Ottarathiri Ottarathiri 2 8 49
4) Pobbathiri Pobbathiri 17 18 73
Subtotal 4 4 29 88 363
1) Pyinmana Pyinmana 7 29 140
Dekkh- 2) Lewe Lewe 7 60 261 inathiri 2 (South) 3) Zabuthiri Zabuthiri 12 2 4
4) Dekkhinathirithiri Dekkhinathirithiri 2 8 28
Subtotal 4 4 28 99 433
Total 8 8 57 187 796
Source: Regional Development Plan for Lewe Township (2014), fiscal 2015-16.
Lewe has one town (Lewe), seven wards, 60 village tracts and 261 villages comprised of seven wards; the township’s population is 260,071 spanning 59,521 households.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 213 215
•
A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar Chapter 4 _
North Directions Oattara Thiri Township Other Town Other Village Village Tract
Scale 1 inch = 4 Miles Railway Motorway 20 Lel Tar Gyi Dam/Lake Taung Dwin Gyi Township River/Creek Drain arm
General Administration Office
Yangon - Mandalay Highway Highway Mandalay Mandalay - - Yangon Yangon Police Station Army Schools Hospital 44 Tha Yet Chaung Dekkhina Thiri Township Market 26 Oke Shit Hlaing Airport Pyinmana Township Communications Tower To Pyinmana To MandalayTo Mandalay Pyinmana Town Avoid RoadPyinmana Town Avoid Road
To KyaukpadaungTo Kyaukpadaung Cement Factory 40 Swei Taw Hmaung 16 Kyauk Ta Lone
21 Ma Tawt Pin To Dekkhinathin Township Dekkhinathin To
To Dekkhinathin Township Dekkhinathin To 34 Saing Gaung Yoe Circular Road Circular
Circular Road Circular 19 Kyoet Pin 55 Wet Ka Mu
Shwe Kyar Pin Ward Ward Pin Pin Kyar Kyar Shwe Shwe
49 Thet Kel Chin 25 Kyo Pin To Mandalay To Chaungmange Dam Mandalay To 12 Kha Yan Kaing 02 Aung Kone 28 Pay Tone Hmyaung 33 Pyin Win Lewe 08 Da Lant Chun 47 Thaw Hmaw Kone Township 52 Thit Seint Pin 38 Shwe Pyi Thar 29 Pi Tauk Chaung 41 Ta Loke Pin 48 Thae Kaw Gyi 35 Shan Su 39 Si Paing 59 Yae Oe Sin 60 Yone Pid 07 Chaung Kyoe 23 Mway Yoe Kyanug Su 05 Aye Lar 04 Aye Chan Thar 14 Ku Tha Peik 56 Win Te Ku 54 U Yin Su 24 Naung Bo 11 Kan Thar No(32)Army No(605)Army 37 Shwe Pyi Aye No(3032)Army Pyinmana Township 18 Kyoet Kone 43 Tha Pyay Pin 17 Kyaung Yae 58 Yae Kar Tract No(604)Army Thit Poke Pin Min Pyin 51 Shar Chaung 32 [Figure 4-1] Map of Lewe Township [Figure 4-1] 22 Briek Factory Pyaung Gaung Gyi 36 Yankin 30 Pin Thaung Yay Ni Dam Spillway 31 Pyan Chi 15 Kya Thaung Taung Thea Phyu Dam 27 Pauk Myaing 413 42 Tha Pyay Kone Industry-1 13 Kone Thar Ngwe Taung No(6) 414 Army Max Myanmar 57 Ya Bein 46 Thar Wut Hti 01 Ah Lel Kyun 09 Zali Hnget Gyi Taung 53 Ti Taung
45 Tha Yet Kone
50 Thit Kyein 06 Chaung Gwa 10 In Pin From Yangon
03 Aung Thar
Aung Lan Township From Yangon
Yay Tar Shay Township Source: DRD, Digital map. 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar
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214 To devise a rural center plan based on the country’s administrative structure, the center’s concept can be easily purchased and serviced with one around the village, village tract and township as shown below.
[Figure 4-2] Administrative Area of Lewe Township
TOWNSHIP PLAN Socio-Economic & physical/development plan UNION Lewe Township
STATE
LEWE TOWN
VILLAGE TRACT
VILLAGE
Source: Author's own contribution.
An essential task is to promoting the sale of agricultural products that can be sold in or provided to villages or village tracts, and effi ciently receiving services for goods and agricultural extensions needed to produce such products.
Focusing on traditional agricultural development could raise farm production, but a key task is to maintain the sustainability of short-, medium- and long-term rural development based on IRD. This will bolster farming income and improve quality of life in rural areas.
2.2.1.2. Land Area
Lewe Township covers 558,239 acres, with the 1,200-year-old Phaung Taw Chat Ma Pagoda located in the town center and the scenic Sa Ma Taung Pagoda in the Ti Htaung village tract. The township has 423,004 acres of forest that covers 76% of its territory.
2.2.1.3. Population
Lewe is the most populous of the eight townships in Nay Pyi Taw. The Lewe population from 2010-15 is shown in the following table.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 215
Population of Lewe TownshipDomain 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Total 26,848 27,143 27,194 27,742 27,993
Town Male 12,876 13,018 13,161 13,305 13,460
Female 13,972 14,125 14,033 14,437 14,533
Population Total 243,375 246,060 248,510 247,493 256,344 by Village Male 119,811 121,137 122,460 119,807 124,766 administrative tract unit Female 123,564 124,923 126,050 127,686 131,578
Total 270,223 273,203 275,704 275,235 284,337
Total Male 132,687 134,155 135,621 133,112 138,226
Female 137,536 139,048 140,083 142,123 146,111
Under 15 53,956 54,949 55,783 55,626 58,660 Population by age 15-59 198,006 198,999 199,833 199,676 202,711 group Over 60 18,262 19,255 20,088 19,933 22,966
Population density 330.63 334.28 337.34 336.77 347.90
Source: Regional Development Plan of Lewe Township (2014), fiscal 2015/16, p.3.
2.2.2. Socioeconomic Condition19)
2.2.2.1. Employment
Lewe Township had a population of 284,337 in 2014-2015, with the number of those between the ages of 15 to 59 years being 202,711. The working age population is 193,054 except scholars and monastics, in addition to 5,338 full-time students (1,500 in college) and 2,819 monastics. The number of employed exceeds 185,000 including temporary workers. That of the unemployed is 8,054, or 4.2% of the population.
The occupations in Lewe include civil servants, workers in agricultural and livestock, industry, services and casual labor and migrant workers. Government employees include the military and staff who work for the public sector both in and out of the township.
19) The Lewe Township Plan for 2013 in Burmese was translated and quoted.
216 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 217 People working in agriculture and livestock do so at family-owned farms or work for hire over a season at other farms. They also include livestock businessmen and workers as well as those hired to care for companies and animals on an available basis.
Industrial workers refer to those working for private SMEs and corporations.
Service staff includes merchants and agents, those who work in public transportation, trading, construction, home shops, sewing companies, tobacco, blue labor and street kiosks, as well as people working outside of their villages at hotels and shopping malls.
The Number of EmployeesNo Business sector Number %
1 Agriculture & forestry 109,854 60.20
2 Fishery 25 0.01
3 Mining 57 0.03
4 Industry 1,898 1.04
5 Electricity, natural gas & water supply 133 0.07
6 Retail & wholesale 22,545 12.35
7 Construction 387 0.21
8 Hotel & restaurants 27,432 15.03
9 Transportation, storage & communication 4,551 2.49
10 Monetary 89 0.05
11 Housing estate 50 0.03
12 Education 37 0.02
13 Health & social welfare 134 0.07
14 Self-employed, unclassified industry & private 9,875 5.40
15 Government 5,508 3.02
Total 182,485 100
Source: Regional Development Plan of Lewe Township (2014), fiscal 2015/16, p.5.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 217 Among business types, agriculture has the country’s largest workforce with 60.2 % of the overall total. A distant second is the public sector with just 3.02% and industry with 1.04%.
2.2.2.2. Drinking Water
More than 60% of the nation’s water is also needed for uses other than drinking such as personal hygiene, dishwashing and cleaning utensils, bathing and house cleaning.
The water supply is deemed appropriate when the criteria for quantity, quality, availability and reliability are fully met.
Potable water consumes about 70% of ground water. The depth of groundwater is about 200 feet and contamination is a danger, though not a concern as in other regions. If groundwater has a yellowish color, a filter or a method of natural water purification is required.
In recent years, 2-5% of residents drank bottled water from the town center.
2.2.2.3. Sewage System
The country’s sewerage system was set up in 1888, and greatly needs upgrading like a proper treatment process, expansion and improvement of urban sanitation in the Yangon metropolitan area.
Sewage treatment in rural areas usually means digging hole of three square feet and eight feet deep for use over eight years in one place. The hole is away from homes as much as possible and the feces is buried and not used as fertilizer.
Rural areas have no sewers, and when not raining, sewage evaporates because of the heat. In the rainy season, sewage is discharged through small trenches.
2.2.2.4. Waste Disposal
Industrialization, rapid urbanization, economic growth and changing consumption patterns in Myanmar have been accompanied by immense challenges in solid waste management. No accurate and reliable data exist on the national volume of waste generation. According to the World Bank (2012), the country generated 5,616 tons of solid waste per day, or 0.44 kilograms per capita.
218 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 219 Approximately 55% of the country’s waste is generated by the top three cities of Mandalay (955 tons per day), Yangon (1,981), and Nay Pyi Taw (160). Due to the jump in the volume of waste generated, both Mandalay and city development committees have prioritized solid waste management as an issue of immediate concern both for the environment and public health. Municipal solid waste is defined as “non-gaseous and non-liquid waste” created by the daily activities of a community’s residential and commercial sectors within a given administrative urban area.
Myanmar’s municipal solid waste is generated by households (60%), markets (15%), businesses (10%), hotels (2%), gardens (5%) and others (8%). Such waste is mainly composed of organic materials (77%) while the remainder comprises plastic (13%), paper (7%), and others (3%) per observation and evaluation of waste composition in Yangon and Mandalay.
Traditionally, waste collection and disposal are the responsibility of municipal authorities. In Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw, autonomous city development Committees and their respective Pollution Control and Cleansing Departments (PCCDs), with a network of administrative branches and subunits, handle solid waste management in municipal areas. In other parts of the country, township development committees under local governments manage waste collection and disposal.
Municipal systems for solid waste collection can largely be characterized as labor intensive, relying on the use of both manual workers and non-specialized vehicles. Waste collection capacity, as measured by the ratio of solid waste collected to overall waste generated, is increasing in many major cities. In general, such systems include primary and secondary collection. The first type of collection employs several methods such as door-to-door (bell collection), block and container collection and is carried out either or in combination with push carts and tricycles. The secondary collection system is performed mainly with tipper (dump) trucks.
In rural areas, the lack of places to discard garbage means leaves and plastic waste are burned at home and bottles are buried. Select villages, however, use a garbage incineration plant built by the Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement) Project.
People in rural areas just throw away trash in rivers or burn it due to lack of proper disposal places and vehicles and a dearth of consciousness and education on the garbage problem.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 219 2.2.2.5. Electricity
Electricity is the most serious problem in village life. In Lewe Township, just 28 villages and 14 village tracts have electric power, with another 132 villages utilizing diesel power generation. Recently, MOALI has designated three villages in Lewe that use engine power as testbeds for solar power development. Thus the three villages use two power generation systems at the same time (Dekkhina District, 2014).
Sixty to 80% of farmers who have no electricity supply use a Chinese-made solar power system, but mostly for small uses and lighting. Most farmhouses with no electricity use candles and others use batteries or purchase electricity from diesel energy producers.
2.2.2.6. Road & Transportation
Improvement of road conditions and higher motorbike ownership has led to an increase in rural-urban travel. Rural people who lack means of transportation pay a motorbike owner for a lift to a town or city.
Residents are willing to use public transportation near the village that is safe and can shelter them from the heat and rain; yet they shun using public transportation because it is far from their villages. Riding large vehicles like buses is limited by poor road conditions, so road improvement and maintenance are urgently needed.
2.2.3. Hierarchical Structure of Rural Settlement
2.2.3.1. Distribution of Population & Settlement
The average rural village in Lewe Township has 228 households, a population of 566.5 and household size of 4.4 members.
The average village tract has 4.7 villages with 992 households and a population of 4,435. Larger village tract each has 3,560 households and a population of 15,949.
Lewe Township is largely divided into the 1) plains area connected by paved roads close to Dekkhinathiri New Town in the north and Lewe town; 2) the intermediate rural area; and 3) the mountainous remote area. The township is an agro-oriented industrial area with five cement factories, sewing factories and rice-polishing mills. A few industrial parks are near the new town but merely house bottled water and sewing plants.
220 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 221
Statistics of Rural Villages in Lewe TownshipNo. of households Population
Average 228.1 566.5
Standard deviation 165.8 720.1
Minimum 17 72
Maximum 1,140 4,737
Sum 59,521 260,071
Observation 261 261
Note: This analysis is based on survey responses to 60 village tract administrators and 201 household heads. Source: Regional Development Plan of Lewe Township in fi scal year 2015/16 (2014).
[Figure 4-3] Frequency Distribution of Village Populations in Lewe Township
30
25
20
15 Frequency 10
5
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 ETC. 1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0003,1003,2003,3003,4003,5003,6003,7003,8003,9004,0004,1004,2004,3004,4004,5004,6004,7004,800 Population
Note: This analysis is based on survey responses to 60 village tract administrators and 201 household heads. Source: Regional Development Plan of Lewe Township in fi scal year 2015/16 (2014).
Dense inhabited villages are closely connected to the rivers of the plains area. Smaller villages, however, are sparsely populated in the hills or mountains. For the Min Pyin Village tract in the mountainous area, the distance between villages is 3.6 miles.
Though a river is an essential factor in rural life, most rivers in the region are the main obstacles to the movement of people in rainy season. The river that fl ows
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 221 between Chin Pyit Village and Oke Shit Hlaing Village, with many shops as shown in [Figure 4-4], has no bridge over it. When it rains, Chin Pyit residents are forced to go to the farther Lewe Township for buying daily necessities.
[Figure 4-4] Topography of Villages Kha Yan Kaing Village Tract (plains area) Thit Poke Pin Village Tract (mountainous area)
Source: Extracted from google map.
Residents of village tracts jointly use public facilities such as schools and health facilities. Villages generally see no conflict between them, but lack a shared cooperative development experience. In the cases of the NCDDP and Saemaul Undong, the need for mutual cooperation among villages is growing because residents have simultaneously conducted a common project in adjacent villages. And more cases of cooperation are appearing such as festival hosting, project prioritization of villages and distribution of project cost.
2.2.3.2. Distribution of Central Function
The average village in Lewe town has 13.5 facilities and the village tract has an average of 62.8 facilities.20)
Statistics on the Number of Facilities in Villages and Village TractsVillage Village tract Average 13.50 62.8 Variance 142.21 1,518.8 Minimum 0 9 Maximum 95 183 Total 2,511 2,511 Observation 186 40
Note: This analysis is based on survey responses to 60 village tract administrators and 201 household heads. Source: Survey data (2017).
20) This analysis is based on a survey of 188 villages in 40 village tracts.
222 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 223 Source: Surveydata(2017). Note: Thisanalysisisbasedonsurveyresponses to60villagetractadministratorsand201householdheads. small centersofrurallifeor havemeaningfulrolestoperform. Village (57.0),TheaHpyuVillage (56.7)andNyaungMokeSeikVillage (54.8)serveas centrality indexvalueof103.7. was 107.2.ThitPokePinVillage intheThitPokePinVillage Tract hadasignificant respectively. The index for Thea Kaw Gyi Village in the Thea Kaw Gyi Village Tract the TharWut HtiVillage Tract cameinsecondat141.1andfourthhighest104.1, in theAye LarVillage Tract ashigh256.8.InnTharVillage andKyanKhinVillage in township byusingthefunctionalindexmethodofW.K.D. Davies. study soughttoidentifythevillage’s functionasaruralcenteramongvillagesinthe is considered a first-orderruralcenterinthetownship.Underthisprecondition, Since townsandruralvillagesinLewediffer greatlyincentralfunctions,Lewetown insufficient dataonfacilitiesusedtomeasurethecentralfunctionoftownship.
In addition,YwarMaVillage (76.3),AungSiLarVillage (64.8),Taung SinAye Analysis ofDavies’methodfoundthefunctionalindex valueofMyoThitVillage Ascertaining the proper hierarchy of Lewe Township is difficult because of 2.2.3.3. HierarchicalStructureofRuralSettlements Frequency 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 2 9 1 [Figure 4-5]DistributionoftheNumberVillagesandVillageTracts 9 7 Total numberoffacilitiesavillagesandvillagetracts 66 16 15 52 Chapter 4_ Village Tract 5 22 30 5 A PolicyStudyon the IntegratedRuralDevelopmentin Myanmar 29 26 Village 1 37 5 44 1 51 1 58 3
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223 224
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2016/17 Knowledge SharingProgramwithMyanmar Source: Note: Note: Thisisafunctionalindexvalueoffacilitiesandstores inLeweTownship basedonsurveys. conditions makethingsextremelydifficultforcertainvillagesinrainyseason. limited to small villages and the fare for rural residents is relatively cheap. Bad road times are not consistent and bringing luggage is limited. Even public buses are villagers prefertouseprivatetransportationratherthanbecausetrains’running transportation viatruckisoperatedbytheownerandpaidruralpeople. have bike.Thosewithnomotorcyclepayafareaccordingtodistance.Inaddition, go to Lewe town. Motorcycle owners lend their one to other villagers who don’t villages. Privatetransportationandmotorcyclearemostlyusedwhenvillagers Rural residentsaroundrailwaystationsusetrainsbecauseofcheapprice.But, Villagers usuallytakeamotorcycleorwalk whentheygotoneighboring 2.2.4. LivingZoneofRuralPeople PublicBusincludespublictransportation suchastrucks. Surveydata(2017). Functional index 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 50.0 0.0 0 Mode oftransit [Figure 4-6]FunctionalIndexesofVillagesinLeweTownship Motorcycle Public bus No answer Bicycle Train Total < Table 4-8 * 50 > VehiclesUsedforVisitingLeweTown Villages 100 Frequency (100.0) 182 (100.0) 159 (87.4) 13 (7.1) 2 (1.1) 1 (0.5) 7 (3.8) 150 200 Chapter 4_ A PolicyStudyon the IntegratedRuralDevelopmentin Myanmar
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225 The following are the goods and services that rural residents in Lewe Township buy and sell.
Between 35.5 and 44.5% of rural residents and 39 and 45.1% of neighboring rural areas purchase daily necessities, use living facilities and buy agricultural products in the village tract. This means that 80.6-84.3% of all rural residents purchase low- priced products and services in the village and only 16.4-20.9% buy them in Lewe town. In addition, only 0.1-1.3% of rural residents purchase goods and services in Dekkhinathiri New Town.
Rural residents in villages buy most of their home appliances in Lewe town, thus villages in a village tract are important for living and selling daily necessities and using basic facilities. The town is also important as a rural center for private secondary education, medical services and home appliances.
In addition, 50.1% of rural residents conduct economic activities like selling agricultural products in residential villages and 35.5% in town. About 20% of village residents sell their products to towns in Lewe, and 80% sell to middlemen who visit villages and lend money to farmers.21)
The social activities of rural residents are mainly conducted in villages (57.4%) and nearby villages (24.5%). The main meeting venues are temples, schools and playgrounds. A combined 34.3% of people visit close friends in their residential villages, 15.3% in towns and 8.5% in cities.
For health services, 37.9% of rural residents go to a general practitioner in their village, 34.9% in a neighboring village and 28.1% in Lewe town. For in-patient treatment, 60.8% of people go to Lewe town and 22.8% to Dekkhinathiri New Town.
For civilian administrative services, 42.3% of rural residents go to Lewe town, where the local administrative office is located, and 14.5% to the neighboring village where the village administrative office is located.
21) This is from interviews with leaders of five villages March 1- 3, 2017.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 225
Rural Residents’ Living Scope by ActivityOther Town City Village village (Lewe) (Dekkhinathiri)
Daily necessities1) 44.5 39.0 16.4 0.1
Living facilities2) 35.5 45.1 20.9 1.0
Agricultural goods3) 43.0 41.3 17.0 1.3
Home appliances4) 13.3 30.4 53.1 5.8
Economic activity5) 50.1 12.4 35.5 4.5
Visiting close friends or relatives 34.3 7.0 15.3 8.5
Social meeting6) 57.4 24.5 13.5 7.1
Culture & leisure activities7) 71.5 18.5 12.0 0.0
General practice8) 37.9 34.9 28.1 1.6
Hospitalization & general 4.8 14.5 60.8 22.8 medical services
Civil administrative service 0.0 14.5 42.3 0.6
Note: 1) Food ingredients, soap or toothpaste 2) Rice noodle shop, tea shop or barber 3) Agricultural materials, pesticide, fertilizer or seedlings 4) Mobile phone, TV, refrigerator, washing machine or computer 5) Working, buying and selling. 6) Alumni meeting, committee, traditional private fund or organization meeting 7) Cultural events, hobby and fitness center 8) Visiting rural health center, hospital and private clinic for medical examination and treatment. Source: Survey data (2017).
As mentioned above, where rural residents buy products depends on the items and services. Low-end products and services such as daily necessities and living facilities are mainly purchased in residential or other villages in village tracts, but residents in towns and cities tend not to buy things other than lower-order products and services.
A preliminary analysis of 40 villages found 75% of residents living in villages, 15% in neighboring villages in village tracts and 10% in one big village in a village tract. A town is often far from Lewe or other towns so traffic is congested for long periods. So the village that serves as the rural center of the village tract is called the “key village”.
226 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 227 Medical care and hospitalization and public administrative services, however, are offered in towns or nearby cities. Most students in rural villages attend primary school in the village or another nearby in the village tract. Secondary education is provided in the village tract but uncommonly. Most students in rural villages attend secondary school in Lewe town.
2.3. Priorities for Settlement Development
The order of development priority for rural settlement units in the eyes of rural residents are the village, village tract and Lewe town. The overwhelming majority of such residents (85.2%) chose the village or village tract as their first choice of a rural settlement unit. Lewe town also had a high priority ratio of 82.4%, meaning both units are crucial in the daily lives of rural people.
Development Priority Order of Settlement Units for Propelling Regional DevelopmentSettlement unit 1st choice (A) 2nd choice (B) A+B
Village or village tract 155 (85.2%) 18 (9.9) 173 (47.5)
Lewe town 13 (7.1) 150 (82.4) 163 (44.8)
Other city, town or district 3 (1.6) - 3 (0.8)
Big city such as Nay Pyi Taw 5 (2.7) 5 (2.7) 10 (2.7)
No answer or other 7 (3.8) 9 (4.9) 16 (4.4)
Total 182 (100) 182 (100) 364 (100)
Source: Survey data (2017).
To enhance the convenience of rural life and promote rural revitalization, the first course of action residents say is needed is improvement of roads and public transportation with 70.9%.
The first and second choices in
were 35.5% for improvement of roads and public transportation, 12.9% for streamlining health and medical facilities and services, 11.3% for boosting educational facilities and programs, and 8.2% for enhancement of social welfare facilities and programs.Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 227
Development Priority Order for Improving Living Convenience in Rural Areas1st choice (A) 2nd choice (B) A+B
Improving roads & public transportation 129 (70.9) 11 (6.0) 140 (35.5)
Improving health & medical facilities & services 15 (8.2) 32 (17.6) 47 (12.9)
Improving education facilities & programs 14 (7.7) 27 (14.8) 41 (11.3)
Improving social welfare facilities & programs - 30 (16.5) 30 (8.2)
Organizing regular & periodic markets 3 (1.6) 10 (5.5) 13 (3.6)
Expanding commercial and service facilities 1 (0.5) 4 (2.2) 5 (1.4)
Streamlining collecting, processing & 15 (8.2) 41 (22.5) 56 (15.4) distributing agricultural products
Stimulating community activities 3 (1.6) 15 (8.2) 18 (4.9)
Electrification - 11 (6.0) 11 (3.0)
No answer 2 (1.1) 1 (0.5) 3 (0.8)
Total 182 (100.0) 182 (100.0) 364 (100.0)
Source: Survey data (2017).
The answers “average (40.1%)”, “favorable (18.8%)” and “quite favorable (17.8%)” were found to be good for improving the daily life services of rural people, mainly via the development of rural centers.
Village Residents’ Opinion on Selective Concentration of Living Service Facilities within Higher-order Rural Center in TownshipFrequency (%)
Quite favorable 36 (17.8)
Favorable 38 (18.8)
Average 81 (40.1)
Apposition 36 (17.8)
Much apposition 2 (1.0)
Don’t mention 9 (4.5)
Total 202 (100.0)
Source: Survey data (2017).
228 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 229 2.4. Implication and Issues
Myanmar’s rural areas are rice agriculture-oriented communities and villages are large with flat areas close to each other. Also, the village tract, which includes an average of 4.4 villages, is large. If the mountain area ratio is high, however, the size and distance of villages are opposites. Because of the size of the township, the distance from village to town is long.
Most villages have a dense distribution of home, the village roads are almost inadequate, and the facilities for drinking water, wastewater treatment and garbage disposal are outdated. Electricity is the most serious factor limiting the life and productivity of rural residents. Most rural villages can be said to have poor living conditions but many resources can be utilized to revamp and invigorate such villages.
For example, educating villagers about garbage problems such as vinyl (plastic) requires a change in perception and an alternative plan for treatment. If garbage is handled well, rural villages in Myanmar can be charming places with natural beauty. A few could even try community-based eco-tourism. Certain villages have surrounding villages that heavily depend on the former for basic living services, so “key villages” perform a variety of functions. Having a key village as the lowest- ranking rural center in a small life zone at the village and village-tract level is important because resident accessibility to places far from their villages is crucial. The criteria for the decision should be construction cost and availability of rural residents.
Depending on the level of goods and services, the areas where rural residents visit vary. Lower-order goods and services such as daily necessities are mainly used in other villages in village tracts, but the rate of other goods and services used in towns and cities have increased.
The most important development priority of rural settlement is the development of village and town (85.2%) and second is small towns (82.4%). This means that these two units are essential in the daily lives of rural residents, and 36.6% of residents favored development of small rural areas. The key development items for living convenience and revitalization in rural areas are improvement of roads and traffic (35.5%), medical services (12.9%), educational facilities and programs (12.9%), and welfare facilities and programs (8.2%).
As described above, improvement of roads, transportation, healthcare and social welfare services at the village and village tract levels, higher and more diverse living services in small towns, and improvement of transportation services are crucial tasks.
Another key challenge is to raise satisfaction of residential living and the self- sufficiency of village tracts. In this case, improvement of accessibility is needed among
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 229 villages in a village tract. Inter-village agreements and cooperation are also needed. Such deals must be effective or plentiful in number such as those on education, health, festivals and others. This basic life zone seeks to meet the basic demand of residents.
The increasingly important roles of a rural center include services and facilities, public utilities and infrastructure such as education, health, welfare, sports, religion, recreation, culture, commerce, transportation, agriculture, water supply, drainage, sewerage, electricity, roads, railways, administration, security, finance, industry and animal husbandry22) in rural areas.
Villagers near Lewe Township often visit Lewe town to buy goods services. The sale of agricultural and processed products produced in the village is also advantageous. To minimize the relative lag of rural areas in urbanization and industrialization, prediction of regional changes is needed, as well as planning and development of a plan to develop region integration of urban and rural areas.
3. Rural Development Policies in Myanmar
3.1. Implementation Structure for Rural Development Policies in Myanmar
The previous government’s reforms highlighted the importance of agriculture and rural development such as the Poverty Alleviation and Rural Development Action Plan, the Framework for Economic and Social Reforms, the National Comprehensive Development Plan and the Rural Development Strategic Framework in Myanmar.
DRD under the MOALI devises and implements rural development nationwide and policy toward sustainable rural development; all stakeholders have roles in execution.
The DRD is based in Nay Pyi Taw with branch offices all over the country. In other words, a DRD branch office is in every township. Fifteen DRD branch offices exist at the state and regional level including in Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory, two branch offices of state DRDs, 67 offices of district DRDs, 292 offices of township DRDs and one National Races Village. The national DRD has eight divisions and 17 subdivisions as follows.
22) United Nations (1979), Guidelines for rural center planning, New York, pp.105-107.
230 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 231
Divisions of DRDDivision Subdivision
Rural Social Development & --Rural Social Development Subdivision 1 Administration Division --Administration Subdivision
--Rural Economy Subdivision 2 Rural Economy & Finance Division --Budget Subdivision
--Planning Subdivision Planning & International Relation 3 --International Relations Subdivision Division --Project Assessment Subdivision
Poverty Reduction Support --Poverty Reduction Support Subdivision 4 Division --Record and Information Subdivision
--Road and Bridge Subdivision 5 Rural Road & Bridge Division --Measuring and Drawing Subdivision
Rural Water Supply & Sanitation --Water Supply Subdivision 6 Division --Sanitation Subdivision
Rural Electrification & Housing --Electrification Subdivision 7 Division --Housing Subdivision
--Procurement Subdivision 8 Procurement & Logistics Division --Logistics Subdivision
Source: DRD organizational chart.
3.1.1. Rural Development at Central Level
Among MOALI departments, the DRD is responsible for the development of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, water supply and electrical connections and improving the socioeconomic conditions of the rural populace. It takes a participatory approach by working with rural communities and households, village socioeconomic and governance organizations, local government agencies at the township and district levels, national-level public offices including ministries and departments, other national institutions, civil society groups, NGOs, the private sector and international development organizations, including those for multilateral and bilateral development, global NGOs and philanthropic entities.
At the union (central) level, the DRD is a national executive body for the development of Myanmar’s rural areas and background, vision, policy, objectives and tasks
The Strategic Framework for Rural Development (2013) under the Ministry of Livestock Fisheries and Rural Development (now MOALI) aimed to reduce rural
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 231 poverty in areas with high poverty. The framework has five strategies: (a) targeting, (b) synergistic intervention, (c) sustainable financing, (d) collaboration and (e) good governance. Under this framework, the evergreen village project (called Mya Sein Yaung or MSY in Burmese) and Village Development Planning (VDP) are being implemented.
The most significant project funded by the World Bank is the NCDDP, which aims to enable poor rural communities to benefit from improved access to and use of basic services under a people-centered approach and enhanced government capacity. This project was started in October 2012 and will be completed by January 2019. The World Bank has granted USD 80 million for this project and a loan of USD 400 million. The project areas are all village tracts in the country’s 63 townships. Activities are focused on community infrastructure development by providing block grants to the community.
Another project funded by the World Bank and implemented by the DRD is the (off-grid) National Electrification Plan (NEP).
3.1.2. Rural Development at Regional Level
The DRD controls and supervises 15 state and regional branches including in Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory and two branch offices of state DRDs at the regional level. They work in coordination and cooperation in rural development and assign other state and regional departments under the supervision of governments in each region.
The problem is that too many committees and organizations have been established and institutional structures and institutions are unfit for coordinating. Rural infrastructure is inadequate to have the urban-rural linking effect that needs to distinguish large-scale infrastructure from that of village level. Public financing remains severely limited and the government’s management capacity is weak in rural development. In addition, trust in government and civic participation remain shallow.
3.1.3. Rural Development at Community Level
Myanmar has 67 districts and 292 township DRDs. They are implementing rural development activities such as construction and maintenance of feeder roads and bridges, provision of safe drinking water and hygiene and sanitation facilities, electrification and livelihood support at the community level.
In areas governed by the NCDDP, support committees for the village tract project and community members responsible for identifying the priority needs of their villages devise village development plans and implement infrastructure projects.
232 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 233 Myanmar is conducting rural development projects with experts, but in an inconsistent manner, thus a clear and strong system of rural development is needed.
Rural development projects such as Saemaul Undong, LIFT, PARD, NCDDP and the Evergreen Village Project are being promoted but remain diffi cult to integrate and coordinate at the village level.
A comprehensive development method is thus needed that covers rural development by sector and space since the NLD-led government needs a new policy to push forward. Because Myanmar has many ethnic groups and regions, it needs stronger authority at the local level and better communication, cooperation and governance for that authority at the district and local levels. And improvement of rural development plans and capacity building for rural residents is needed at the same time.
[Figure 4-7] Rural Development & Urban Links
Rural Center Urban Service Urban Service ㆍEducation LEWE ㆍHealth & Medical TOWN ㆍMarket accessibility ㆍCultural Art ㆍProcessing & Distribution Linkage of Agr’l Products, etc.
VILLAGE Hierarchical ㆍRDSF (Evergreen)VDP TRACT Function & Role ㆍLIFT ㆍEducation ㆍPARD ㆍHealth ㆍNCDDP ㆍCommodity ㆍSMU(SaeMaulUndong) ㆍDaily Life VILLAGE ㆍPublic Services
Source: Author's own contribution.
3.2. Rural Development Programs
3.2.1. National Community-Driven Development Plan (NCDDP)
NCDDP was initially established in 2013 by the Myanmar government with support from the World Bank. In 2015, the project was scaled up, with additional financing support from the government, World Bank and Italy. The NCDDP is
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 233 implemented by the DRD under MOALI.23)
The project seeks to enable poor rural communities to benefit from improved access to and use of basic infrastructure and services through a people-centered approach. The DRD began the project’s implementation in three townships in November 2013. The project has since been expanded to new townships every year, covering 27 townships in the 2015/16 community cycle, home to approximately three million people in 5,000 villages in all 14 states and regions and the Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory.24)
Since 2012, the World Bank has provided USD 80 million in block grants and USD 400 million in loans for community development.
In fiscal 2015/16, the project disbursed MMK 21.6 billion (USD 16.8 million) in block grants to communities to finance the construction of over 5,000 subprojects across 5,429 villages in 27 townships.
In the second community cycle (2014/15), the project disbursed grants worth MMK 10.5 billion (USD 8.2 million), financing 1,811 sub-projects across 1,727 villages in nine townships.
The project provides grants to village tracts to finance the construction of rural, community-level civil infrastructure such as buildings, bridges, water supply, roads and electricity.
Most of the support is going toward infrastructure such as bridges and roads, and community members are participating in construction. General workers vary from village to village but receive MMK 5,000-8,000 per day, a pay range set by each community. Engineers receive MMK 10,000.
The four-year Community-driven Development (CDD) project, worth USD 4.5 million, invests in villages based on population. A block grant is given to a village tract in a lump sum. The CDD has been long been used in the Philippines and Indonesia and has a template.
Each village prioritizes the proposed subprojects to share the grant among villages every year. 2016 saw 27 townships running and 20 new townships added for 8,500 villages in 400 village tracts of 47 townships; the number of townships will be raised to 63.
23) Neil Neate, P. Eng. (2016). Technical, Cost Effectiveness and Sustainability Audit, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, p.2. 24) Community-driven Development Secretariat, Department of Rural Development, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (2016). ANNUAL REPORT (April 2015 - March 2016), EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, p.3.
234 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 235 The NCDDP is limited to infrastructure and does not cover education and health. The technical assistance team consists of a community facilitator using the ethnic language and a technical facilitator with a civil and electrical engineering background. This is similar to the community development mechanism.
Technical guidance is community designed according to DRD standards and procurement is done by not only contractors but also the community by forming a village procurement subcommittee. The community facilitator uses the VDP according to the PRA process. Male and female groups are formed to come up with a a VDP and decide on a Township Planning and Implementation Committee (TPIC) that reflects rural development.
The community also provides labor and the average income is shared by them according to the contract. Pay for technical assistance staff participating in the CDD varies by township but ranges from MMK 5,000-6,000 per day for a worker and MMK 10,000 for a skilled worker. Thus it is possible to identify the difference between the Saemaul Undong project, which uses unpaid labor, and the CDD project.
3.2.2. Rural Development Strategic Framework (RDSF)
The VDP covers 5,385 villages in 29 townships under the RDSF; priority is given to everything such as education and technical assistance is received. The DRD has followed this approach to develop a national model for VDP with the full participation of village communities and households from all socioeconomic backgrounds; building formal organizations such as farmer cooperatives is hard because such organizations were not allowed in the past.
Village capacity needs improvement through farming organizations and raising the low education farmers normally receive. Vocational training can build capacity and consequently increase agricultural production. Also, repairing and training of skilled worker is required that works of RDSF require skilled worker and 2,000 VDP to be finished for rural development.
3.2.3. Rural Saemaul Undong
To implement the rural project Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement) in Myanmar, 100 villages were selected based on criteria such as promotional effect and location in a mountainous village or plains area and promoted under a three-year plan. This was started with the now-defunct Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (now MOALI).
Rural residents want microfinancing the most since most farmers are poor and earning income from agriculture is difficult; they borrow money from banks to
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 235 buy seeds to farm yet cannot spend money because fertilizers and pesticides are expensive.
In microfinancing of the Saemaul Undong project, the recovery rate is 99% because of neighborhood guarantees. In other businesses, more than 95% of the principal is collected.
The microfinance loan rate is high at 1.5% per month but there is demand for it. The operating cost is around 15% per year, however, so the real operating rate is not high.
Shinhan Bank of the Republic of Korea has offered microfinancing and been designated to do financial business limited to foreign banks in 2016. As a result, the Republic of Korea banks NongHyup and Korea Federation of Credit Cooperatives (KFCC) are preparing microfinance projects.
3.3. Rural Development in Lewe Township
Township planning is a bottom-up approach done at the township, district, and state and regional levels as determined by a planning and implementation committee. The latter prioritizes the proposed project based on urgent demand from village residents and information from government agencies.
The Myanmar government needs to implement the NCDP for sustaining agricultural development for the sake of industrialization and all-around, balanced and proportionate development among states and regions, inclusive growth for the national population, and improvement of living standards, rural development and poverty alleviation in Myanmar. Otherwise, the regional development plan of Lewe Township in fiscal 2015/16 included in the jurisdiction of the Nay Pyi Taw Council has been presented.
The roles of township administrator, committees for township administration, planning, farmland administration and development committee, as well as ward or village tract administrator, developer and clerk are also included in the processes in the development of ward and regional development data collected and analyzed.
The township plan was devised by the township committee to discuss what the key issues were from the village leaders’ meeting and what was agreed with village residents on what is needed in the village and what were the most important factors in developing a village.
236 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 237 Changes in condition are reported to the township, and the township coordination meeting is held every other week. To gather facts about and requests from the village, all township members visit and check the village.
The township plan can be implemented in three ways. To approve the project, the regional or state legislature holds talks on it and approval comes from parliament. Lewe Township is within union territory under the direct control of the President. So priority is not given by parliamentarians. The Nay Pyi Taw Council is responsible for this. Yet the Lewe Township plan is under review for 2014/15.
VDP is promoted by the DRD where is a process of creating a VDP and a Township Plan based on it, but DRD has yet to devise the 2016 Lewe VDP. In addition, the DRD’s structure is composed of not only engineers but also other administrative staff. So the DRD gets a real understanding of the village situation. The NCDDP has the same terminology for a VDP but a different implementation system.
In select villages, local VDPs with the help of international organizations were well made, but most villages lack a system for creating or making VDPs.
Though the township plan covers social and rural development, land, use and infrastructure and is a rural center plan similar to that for IRD, it is not a theoretical and practical aspect of IRD.
4. Rural Development Experience in Korea
4.1. Overview
Rural development in the Republic of Korea began with community development from the late 1950s to the 60s, and with Saemaul Undong (New Community Movement) in the 1970s. At the time, rural development was pursued from a community development approach aimed at rural villages.
As urbanization and industrialization accelerated in the 1980s and 90s, interactions and interdependence between urban and rural areas increased and spatial integration in both regions began. As a result, policy toward IRD was introduced and included rural centers and their periphery.
Since the 2000s, IRD has been promoted through a combination of the community development approach at the rural village level and the living zone development approach at the regional level.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 237
Rural Development Policy by EraImplementation Period Policy Projects Unit
Community 1958 - --Agricultural extension Development Village 1960s --Improvement of living environment (CD) program
--Boosting of agricultural products --Improvement of agricultural infrastructure Saemaul 1970s --Enhancement of living environment Village Undong --Activities for raising resource development income
Comprehensive --Improvement of living environment 1980s - Rural center, rural --Rural industrialization 2000s village development --Diversification of off-farm income base
--Block grant system Integrated Rural --Promoting 6th industrialization25) Rural center, 2010s Development --Improvement of living environment & village (IRD) quality of life
Source: Korea Rural Economic Institute (2015), p.798.25)
4.2. Village Development Approach
4.2.1. Community Development Program
The community development program is a rural development model adopted by the U.N. and International Cooperation Administration (ICA) for developing countries since the end of the World War II, and was adopted by the Republic of Korea in 1958. Koreans then sought to overcome hunger and poverty, the two most important issues in the country at the time.
To implement community development, the government per the community development plan chose pilot villages whose residents were mostly homogeneous farmers.
In such villages, officers organized villagers to prepare a development plan and had them implement it themselves. The government assisted villages with technology
25) The Republic of Korea’s sixth industrialization policy aims to increase farm incomes, maintain rural society, revitalize the rural economy and create jobs by raising agriculture’s added value through the sixth industrialization, a convergence activity based on win-win cooperation. The government is pursuing this policy through the convergence of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries to stimulate the vitality of agriculture and rural villages.
238 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 239 and financing.26) Community development projects were divided into two categories: self-help and subsidy. The first type sought to promote self-development in a village without external assistance and through the efforts, resources and technologies of villagers. The subsidy project was promoted with financial and technical support from the government and other organizations established by the villagers.27)
Villagers learned self-organization and democratic procedures through rural development and strengthened their capacity throughout related projects that played an important role in the development of Saemaul Undong in the 1970s.
4.2.2. Rural Saemaul Undong
From 1962, the Republic of Korea began its course of rapid economic growth through unbalanced development strategies, resulting in wide income disparity between urban and rural areas. The agricultural population began to decline as masses of people began to flock to cities from 1967. This migration put enormous pressure on both the urban and rural sectors. So a strategy was needed to raise agricultural income and set the foundation for settlement in rural areas by employing people in agriculture.
Saemaul Undong was also promoted with the rural village as the basic unit. Traditionally, villages commonly consisted of familial ties, thus making it relatively easy to select and promote community projects in view of the close-bonded organizations among villagers for sustaining the community.
In 1970, the government decided to provide cement and steel to all 33,267 villages in the country, and villagers used them to promote their villages based on their own decisions on community projects. They paved village roads and built irrigation facilities, and the small grants from the government helped improve small streams to secure additional budget. In the end, civic participation helped achieve higher income and food production and improved rural infrastructure.
Government incentives were used to have villages achieve the government’s communal objectives, and villages that did not support such goals had such support withdrawn. In addition, villages that achieved excellent results received more government compensation.
Saemaul Undong gradually developed into a comprehensive program of rural community development. The development projects of line ministries were integrated into the movement under the supervision of the Ministry of Home Affairs. In addition, the ventures were subdivided into projects such as those for
26) Korea Rural Economic Institute, 2015, pp.800-801. 27) Heo, Jang. 2014, pp.5-6.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 239 environmental improvement, raising income, boosting agricultural production infrastructure and welfare.
Thanks to the movement, farming household income went from, equaling 78.8% of that of a city worker in 1971 to 103.2% in 1982, and farmers’ incomes exceeded that of city workers in ten years. More importantly, the rural poverty rate plummeted from 34% in 1967 to 7% in 1989.
Success Factors of Saemaul UndongCategories Success Factors
--Movement leaders’ efforts & tenacious leadership Village leader --Related education
--National slogan of “We can do it” --Amicable attitude of cooperation from residents Consciousness --Social & cultural conditions latent in Korea’s rural community --Active participation of people
--Preferential public support for villages serving as successful role models, fueling development competition Gov’t --Energetic & vigorous government support support --Visible effects triggering people’s participation --Strong presidential leadership
--Organizational strategy of movement --Use of effective promotional strategies Strategies --Integrated rural development strategy --Catalytic & strategic support
--Adoption of new system of social education Capacity --Operation of contextually-fit support system building --Voluntary participation & democratic decision-making
--All activities directly or indirectly connected to higher output & income, conducted for common benefit of community & residents Productivity --Rise in in agricultural sector income forming efficient economic structure with other manufacturing and service industries
Source: Heo Jang, Kim Yun-Jung (2016). Comprehensive Rural Development Strategies of Korea and Their Implications for Developing Countries, Journal of Rural Development 39 (Special Issue), pp.11~12. Modified.
Rapid industrialization, economic and urban growth, and improved transportation accelerated the interactions between rural and urban areas in the Republic of Korea and expanded living zones for rural people. Because Saemaul Undong was a community development program mainly targeting rural villages, limits plagued development of IRD linking cities and rural villages, an essential facet for rural people in the industrialization era.
240 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 241 4.3. Integrated Rural Development Approach
4.3.1. Rural Living Zone and IRD Approach
The Republic of Korea’s rapid economic growth in the late 1970s resulted in heavy population concentration in cities, deepening the urban-rural imbalance and worsening environmental pollution and destruction. Rural society’s integration into the market economy led to drastic changes in rural life.
Demand grew for meeting the basic needs of a rural resident like higher education, medical care, and market and public services, thus bolstering the link between villages and rural centers.
The living zones of rural residents have expanded with their social, economic and cultural activities having moved to rural centers instead of villages like in traditional rural communities. Rural residents started going to rural centers to meet most of their daily needs in education, culture and markets.
[Figure 4-8] Change of Rural Residents’ Living Zone due to Industrialization
The village in the agricultural society The village in the industrial society
living Rural Village sphere center
City Village
ㆍThe village is an independent economic, cultural, ㆍThe village have strong linkages with city life. and administative community. ㆍVillages and rural center form a rural living zone. ㆍCity has no strong linkage with village’s life.
Source: Yang-Boo Choi(1985), p.78.
The government introduced the concept of the living zone development in its Second Comprehensive National Territorial Plan (1982-91) reflecting the ”bottom up” and approaches to rural living zone development. It also recognized the limit of village-centered rural development, so a strategy was devised for developing rural living zones linking rural villages to rural centers.28)
The size of a rural living zone is defined as the space within the distance that villagers can return home to within a day after visiting a rural center. In the zone,
28) The discussion on living zone development is based on global trends of regional and human-centered development theory, regionalism and the third national integrated development strategy of Japan (1977), which is a bottom-up approach from the 1970s.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 241 four settlement orders were assumed: a rural center (first-order central place) that is a city and eup (town) with a population of 20,000 or more, the seat of government for a eup or myeon(second-order central place) with a population of 3,000 or more serving two or three myeon around it, and the seat place of myeon with a population of under 3,000 that serves itself (third-order central place) and villages.
Development of a rural living zone expands the spatial range for development from village to rural center and targets the comprehensive development of rural economy, society, living environment, culture and tourism. Moreover, it applies a “bottom-up” approach that promotes regional development according to the demand and development priorities of the rural residents. It also allocates respective projects required for living and production activities of resident to the rural center and villages along with its role within area, so that it aims ensuring spatial integration and improving the impact of investment into village for these roles to be organically linked.
[Figure 4-9] Hierarchical Structure of Republic of Korea’s Rural Settlement
Plain rural area Intermediate rural Mountainous rural (ideal type) area area
Pivot rural center
Small townⅠ
Small townⅡ
Village
Source: Jeong, Cheol Mo (1987).
To implement the strategy of rural living zone development, an IRD plan was introduced to link rural villages to rural centers and executes projects such as the development of the agricultural economy, living environment, social welfare and cultural tourism.
The IRD plan consists of synthetic, sectoral and investment components. The synthetic plan includes setting goals such as population, economic growth, income, employment and land use planning. The sectoral plan is for industrial and economic development (regional agriculture, area industry, improvement of production infrastructure), living environment development (rural centers, villages, roads, transportation, housing, waterworks and drainage) and social welfare development (rural education, human resource development, medical service, and rural culture
242 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 243 and tourism). The investment plan consists of plans for annual investment, mid-term financing and management.
4.3.2. Progress of the Rural Living Zone Strategy and the IRD Approach
Until the 1980s, rural development planning in the Republic of Korea had no legal basis and was implemented by administrative order.
From 1992 to the mid-2000s, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) limited the spatial extent to myeon (township) and the scope of this project to fundamental facilities such as road networks, cultural and welfare centers, and industrial infrastructure. The government prepared a legal basis for pushing the project in rural settlements but this did not achieve the project’s original purpose.29)
In 2008, the central government adopted a framework for the living zone strategy, categorized the zone into four types and promoted basic settlement strategies (2008-12).
Since 2014, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) has redefined rural development methodologies, including related projects and plans, and set up an institutional basis. The ministry formed a mid-and long-term IRD planning system to realize differentiated agricultural policies reflecting the links between the agricultural policies of the central and local governments and localized characteristics.
MAFRA also integrated plans on the basis of the Plan for Agriculture-Rural Area- Food Industry Development. Under the new system of rural development, city and county (gun) governments had to devise a plan for living zone development and its promotion. Provincial (do) governments coordinated and supported related tasks among relevant county governments.
City and county governments were required to formulate an IRD plan for all rural areas to suggest directions for mid- and long-term development, investment priority, links between projects and a plan for cooperation among stakeholders. Communities should take the initiative and devise plans for promoting their rural centers and developing villages. This allows the two agents to coordinate with and complement each other.
29) This project was based on the definition of the Rural Settlement Area Development Project (‘90.4.7) under the Act on Special Measures for Rural Development and the Rural Living Environment Improvement Project (‘91.12.22) under the Rural Community Maintenance Act.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 243 [Figure 4-10] Hierarchical Structure of IRD Planning
Ministry of Agriculture, National Plan for Agriculture-Rual Area-Food Industry Food and Rural Affairs Development (5 year)
l
Provincial Plan for Agriculture-Rual Area-Food Industry Province (Do) Development (5 year)
l
City and County Plan for Agriculture-Rual Area-Food City (Si) · County (Gun) Industry Development (5 year)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (2014).
The Agriculture-Rural Area-Food Industry Development Plan is a top-level strategic blueprint succeeding the Agriculture and Food Industry Plan, Plan to Improve Quality of Life and Five-Year Plan for Block Grant Projects that covers the five categories of the agricultural and food industry, stimulation of the rural economy, rural area development, improvement of quality of life and regional capacity building.
MAFRA supports the project of the City and County Plan for Agriculture-Rural Area-Food Industry Development by linking plans and budgets through block grant projects and support programs for customized policy toward agricultural and rural development each year.
4.4. Implications & Application
Rural development in the Republic of Korea in the 1960s and 70s such as the Community Development Program (1960s) and Saemaul Undong (1970s) was centered on village development. At the time, the country was an agrarian society and village development posed the key to alleviating poverty and underdevelopment.
Village life was important in agrarian society, but as the market, secondary education, healthcare and administrative services grew more important due to higher agricultural productivity and income, the concept of a rural living zone linking urban and rural areas was necessary. Based on this, the IRD-oriented policy was introduced and implemented from the 1980s.
Since the 1980s, the country’s industrialization and higher agricultural productivity and incomes have raised market demand. More income is earned from sales of
244 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 245 agricultural products and the importance of secondary education, healthcare and administrative services has gotten a big boost. So an IRD policy has appeared to link rural centers to surrounding rural villages.
Since the 1990s, the IRD system has been modified to promote agricultural and rural development in accordance with the globalization of the economy. A five-year plan for rural development has become a legal plan.
The lessons from the Republic of Korea’s rural development experience are as follows. First, gradual promotion of village development through cooperation among villages helped overcome the limit of small scale. Second, rural village development was based on boosting resident participation, leadership and capacity. Strengthening the capacity of residents should be gradual but steadily intensify. Third, in response to progress in industrialization and urbanization and the increase of interactions between urban and rural areas, a comprehensive strategy for rural development and an IRD approach were introduced. Thus under the framework of the plan for rural living zone, the priority, content and method of development of a rural center and village were rationally determined and promoted by residents, and a synergy effect was easily created by linking the projects. Fourth, the system for rural development planning was legalized and institutionalized to enable rural development in a sustainable way.
In Myanmar, most rural areas are far from towns or cities and road conditions are poor. Because a village and village tract are large, the basic needs of rural residents are mostly met within the two areas.
In areas where agricultural and rural areas are expected to undergo rapid change because of industrialization, however, an IRD policy is needed that includes linking rural villages to rural centers. This will help meet the needs of rural residents for the market development of agricultural product sales, the expansion of educational opportunities beyond high school, and better healthcare and administrative services.
5. Policies and Strategies for Rural Development in Myanmar
5.1. Strategies for Village and Village Tract Development
Rural villages of Myanmar are large, and the presence of several villages in one village tract offers a multitude of services to villagers. In the case study of Lewe Township, the average village has a population of 566.5, a township has 4.7 villages
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 245 and a village tract has 2,662.5 residents. The populations of these villages and village tracts are crucial for developing and providing proper services.
Basic infrastructure such as roads, traffic, drinking water, electricity, energy, sanitation, sewage treatment and waste disposal is also weak, making the quality of life low and poverty rate high.
So meeting basic demand through village development is the first priority of rural development in Myanmar. Budget constraints, however, mean development of many villages at the same time is difficult, thus efficient development methods are needed.
First, individual development of a rural village must follow its own development priorities. In Lewe Township, various methods such as CDD and Saemaul Undong are being applied. The Myanmar government has also published a manual on village development and devised a rational plan for village development.30)
To apply the most efficient method of development be fitting individual villages, objective monitoring and evaluation are needed for village development programs under implementation, as well as feedback.
Second, the village tract must be developed as a base for providing basic services to residents in the village tract. Lewe Township can serve as a benchmark for efficient village development. Among villages within the village tract, a few have surrounding villages heavily reliant on commodity purchases and living services. These villages have elementary, junior and senior high schools, medical facilities such as a stationary Hospital Unit, rural health centers, and retail stores and restaurants.
Such villages can be called ‘key villages’ that provoke consideration of ways to selectively concentrate the service facilities necessary for rural life and strengthen links between villages. For other individual villages, the minimum development needed for resident settlement and improvement of accessibility between villages within the village tract are more effective than distributed development for each village. Thus a small rural living zone including villages in village tracts or in adjacent tracts centered on key villages could be called a ‘small’ rural living zone.
The villages of Lewe are experienced in working together in education, medical care, transportation and festivities, which means they have the potential to promote cooperation in town development projects. But for the cooperative system of village development to smoothly take root, efforts are needed to step up from projects gaining consensus among villages, which are mutually beneficial and considered easy to implement.31)
30) Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Rural Development (2015). 31) In some cases, one village or villages in a village tract promote CDD or Saemaeul Undong at the same
246 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 247 5.2. Pilot Study for Rural-Urban Integrated Development
If Myanmar’s economic growth accelerates and its road transportation improves, rural villages will strengthen their socioeconomic and spatial links with urban areas. Lewe Township, for example, is close to the new city of Nay Pyi Taw or Dekkhinathiri, and the villages around the main roads have increased interaction with cities.
Interactions between urban and rural areas will rapidly rise from the big cities (Yangon and Mandalay), their suburban development centers(special economic zones, border exchange centers, tourism and service-specific regions and resource- based industrial areas) and their surrounding rural areas and articulated sectors of the economic development axis. .Thus the rural living zone must be studied to prepare a development strategy for urban-rural integration, including the rural centers (city, town, key village) and their surrounding rural areas as hinterland.
IRD at the level of the rural living zone can promote mutual development between urban and rural areas under the long-term development framework and improve consistency between rural and urban development. Strengthening the rural center’s function is crucial for the improvement of quality of life and the economic vitality of residents in the same living zone; it will also prove beneficial toward the advancement of planning technique for rural development.
Other tasks are to design a well-equipped system for rural settlement to revive rural areas in Myanmar and improve accessibility between rural village and rural center.
Myanmar’s rural-urban integrated living zone could be a township, and the scope of a rural area must include a rural center and villages in the zone.
Rural-urban integrated living zones in Myanmar are assumed to have a three- step hierarchical settlement of “town”, “key village” and “village”. This is because demand for or frequency of use by rural residents varies according to the type of goods and services. Higher-order centers with more specialized and diverse products and services are spatially positioned in lower centers to meet demand.
time. In this case, those who participate in these projects feel the necessity for inter-village cooperation to the point that project priority coordination can occur.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 247 [Figure 4-11] Conceptual Frame of Rural-Urban Integrated Living Zone
Village tract
Township
City Town Key Village Village Service network at intervals 15-30 days Daily service network Network between Village Tract
A town leads the stimulation of a living zone by strengthening central, nodule and basic functions. It also provides opportunities for rural residents to effectively meet the demand for living services and lead economic activities in rural areas such as agricultural marketing and employment.
Rural villages far from the town area cannot benefit from it because of lack of access to the center due to poor transportation conditions, even if they strengthen the town’s function. So the key village’s function should be strengthened first to meet the basic needs of small villagers around the key village.
5.2.1. Suggestion for the Future Policy
5.2.1.1. Policy for IRD Planning
To introduce IRD policy to Myanmar requires careful preparation of policy proposals.
Such proposals include a legal system for IRD, designation of the leading administrative department, a delivery system of the related department and agencies, an IRD plan linking urban-rural functions, financial resources, systematization and participation of village organizations.
In drafting an IRD plan, four successive phases can be considered assuming that the IRD plan is part of that of the national and local governments:
248 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 249 Phase1: Analysis of the existing human and natural resource base of the township concerned; Phase 2: Determination of the present centrality of the settlements; Phase 3: Setting of hierarchical levels; Phase 4: Design of IRD plan.
5.2.1.2. Suggestion for Pilot Study
For the application and implementation of IRD, a nationwide vs. localized strategy should be considered to select appropriate geographical boundaries, target areas and geographical units.
A pilot project can be conducted according to the following procedure.
Suggested Pilot Study for IRDProcedure Content
--Devise preliminary plan (residents, township & village tract) Prepare --Research project promotion condition: organize & operate village preliminary plan & development committee Apply for project --Apply for budget (TS/VT State Union Committee: MOALI)
Designate district for preliminary feasibility --Consider preliminary plan (MOALI) study
Conduct preliminary --Conduct feasibility survey (MDI) feasibility survey
--Devise basic plan: select target district (consideration by review Designate target area committee)
--Conduct basic survey on target area: set basic plan Establish basic plan --TS/VT (approval) State (negotiation) MOALI (report)
Set implementation --Come up with specific design & establish implementation plan plan
--Check promotion in progress & operate village development Implement project council
Inspect completion & --Inspect project completion & report settlement results Settle accounts
Source: Heo, Jang, and Yun-Jung Kim (2016).
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 249 5.3. Setup of IRD Planning System
To promote the IRD of the rural living zone, a plan to that effect should be positioned as a mid- to long-term basic blueprint integrating development plans for towns and townships.
For these planning systems to be generalized and be practically applicable, however, integrated rural living zones are needed in many rural areas, but this will take a considerable time to accomplish. To promote IRD from the place where interaction between urban and rural areas is active due to progress in urbanization and industrialization, all stakeholders must help devise a rural development plan. It is crucial to reflect this in the action plans for town and township development.
Another task is to strengthen the interconnectivity and coherence between development plans for micro-level villages and village tracts. When local governments set long-term development directions, strategies and tasks, they should stay consistent with national or regional development policies despite low performance, which can reasonably suggest the effective direction of programs and projects. In addition, the two must be linked together to enable an area-based integrated approach that can raise the efficiency of financial investment and utility of users.
For these attempts to work effectively, a study on the urban network system promoted by the Myanmar government should be pursued along with research on the structure of the rural living zone, including the rural center and rural areas. This includes analysis of the central functions of villages, village tracts, townships, districts, and research and analysis of rural residents’ living zones that must be linked to the study “Program of Urban Network System” with assistance from Cologne University of Germany.
When introducing IRD in a rural living zone, pilot projects should be done first to minimize trial and error.
Survey, analysis and diagnosis are needed in regions with the characteristics of Myanmar’s rural areas, like those highly integrated with the urban economy and general and depopulated remote rural areas.
The Republic of Korea’s rural planning system, process and planning techniques, and innovative projects and programs in rural areas need examination for their suitability of use in Myanmar’s rural areas. For this purpose, a suggestion is for the central and local governments and think tanks to jointly conduct policy experiments and R&D on rural development.
250 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 251 5.4. Strengthening for Rural Resident Capacity
For Myanmar to keep promoting rural development, communities there need stronger capacity. This means raising the participation of rural residents, finding and organizing core subjects, strengthening capacity building and diversifying community activities.
Such capacity building should be aimed at communities in villages and village tracts and be tailored to the characteristics of resident consciousness and community and level of development. This requires mid- to long-term training rather than hours or days of short-term training.
For this purpose, customized capacity-building programs are needed that matches the characteristics and potential of rural life zone and community, as well as the levels of development and resident capacity that develop and deepen learning according to the development stage of community.
Rural residents in Myanmar are reluctant to participate in capacity-building programs unless they are linked to development or economic support. The trick is thus to carry out challenge projects on a small scale based on what is learned during or after the capacity-building programs. Such projects can be used even without rural development projects, which will facilitate capacity building by rural residents.
In conjunction with stronger capacity building in rural areas, state and regional governments in Myanmar should also design and support policy projects so that development projects matching the capacity of rural people can gradually advance.
Finally, continuous development of regional capacity building requires development of standard textbooks, information communication centers for rural development, and training of instructors and operation of training institutions.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 251 References
Choi, Yang-Boo and Cheol-Mo Chung, A Study on the Integrated Rural Development: Rural Settlement System and Rural Center Development, Korea Rural Economic Institute, 1984. Choi, Yang-Boo and Lee, Jeong-Hwan, Rural Development Strategies in Industrial Societies: Choosing a New Integrated Rural Development Method, Korea Rural Economic Institute, 1987. Chung, Ki Whan, “Rural Development”, in Korea Rural Economic Institute (ed.), 50-year History of Korean Agricultural and Rural Policy, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 1999. ______, “Rural Development Policy in Korea”, Korea Institute for Rural Development, 2017. (unpublished) Chung, Ki Whan and Jeong-Youn Kim, “Rural Area Development”, Korea Rural Economic Institute (ed.), 70 Years of Agriculture and Rural Area, MAFRA, 2015. Community-driven Development Secretariat, Department of Rural Development, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation, Annual Report (April 2015-March 2016): Executive Summary,, 2016, p.3. Dekkhinathiri District, ,Regional Development Plan of Lewe Township (2015-2016), 2014. Friedmann, John, Life Space and Economic Space: Essays in Third World Planning, New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1988. Heo, Jang, A Study for Development of Textbooks of Agricultural ODA Programs for the “Korean ODA Model”, Korea Rural Economic Institute, 2014. Heo, Jang, and Yun-Jung Kim, “Comprehensive Rural Development Strategies of Korea and Their Implications for Developing Countries”, Journal of Rural Development, Vol. 39 (Special Issue), 2016. Jeon, Seunghun and Ujin Jeong, “Direction of the Agricultural Aid to Africa”, World Agriculture No. 153, 2013. Jeong, Cheol Mo, “Direction of Rural Center for Rationalizing Rural Settlement System”, Rural Economics, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1987. Kim, Jeong-Youn, “Rural-Urban Integration and Rural Development”, Land Use Study, Vol. 6, No. 5, Korea Land Corporation, 1995, pp.63-79. Kim, Heesuk, “The Political Process Related with International Development Project in Rural Myanmar”, Cross-cultural Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2015,pp.139-180. Kim, Taejong, “Rural Development in Myanmar: Lessons for Strategy and Implementation from the Korean Experience”, in 2013 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar I: Strengthening Policy Analysis Capacity for Economic Development in Myanmar,
252 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 253 MOSAF, KDI, KIF, 2013. KOICA, Saemaul Undong and Integrated Rural Development Project in Myanmar-2nd Report of Feasibility Survey, 2013. KOICA and Korea Rural Corporation, Saemaul Undong Project in Myanmar: Master Plan, 2016. Korea Rural Economic Institute, 70 Years of Agriculture and Rural Areas, MAFRA, 2015. Lonsdale, Richard E. and Gyorgy Enyedi (Eds.), Rural Public Services: International Comparisons, Boulder and London: Westview Press, 1984. Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Guideline of City and County Plan for Agriculture-Rural Area-Food Industry Development, 2014. Ministry of Home Affairs, Saemaul Undong, 1983. OECD, Rural-Urban Partnerships: An Integrated Approach to Economic Development, OECD Publishing. 2013. Neil Neate, P.Eng., Technical, Cost Effectiveness and Sustainability Audit: Executive Summary, 2016, p.2. Rondinelli, D. A., Applied Methods of Regional Analysis: The Spatial Dimensions of Development Policy, Boulder and London: Westview Press, 1985. Rural Development Administration (RDA), Northern Agriculture Research Institute, and INC, Policy for Promotion of Agricultural Mechanization and Technology Development, 2013. United Nations, Guidelines for Rural Center Planning, New York: UN, 1979, pp.105-107 UN/ESCAP, Theories and Guidelines for Rural Development, Korea Rural Economic Institute, 1981. Unwin, Tim, “Urban-Rural Interaction in Developing Countries: a Theoretical Perspective”, in Robert B. Potter and Tim Unwin (eds.), The Geography of Urban-Rural Interaction in Developing Countries, London: Routledge, 1989.
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 253 AppendixAppendix 1
Features of Key Villages in Lewe Township
Distribution Village Tract Distance Transportation Topography Notes of Villages
05 (Aye Lar Aye Lar is They use The maximum The villages The key village Village Tract) about eight motorbikes distance are located on in this village miles from mainly for between each the plain. tract is Aye Lar. This village Lewe. transportation, village is 1.5 tract has 11 and sometimes miles and Another six villages. Six of Most villagers they use the minimum one village tracts the 11 villages go to Pyinmana bus. mile. (Ah Lel Kyun (Ka Lar 05017, Town instead 01, Aye Chan Doe Bi Kone of Lewe to Tha 04, Pi Tauk 05018, Ywa buy goods Chaung 29, Thit 05019, and services Pin Thaung 30, Ywar Ma because Yae Kar 58 and 05021, Set the road to Yone Pin 60) Paing 05023, Pyinmana mainly rely on Myo Thit is more Aye Lar. 05024) are convenient collectively to ride a called Aye Lar motorbike village. on and the distance is also the same (eight miles from Pyinmana Town). They go to Lewe Town only for office work. 58 (Yae Kar Yae Kar Village They All villages are All villages are The key village village tract) (58255) is mainly use located within on the plain. in this village about 20 miles motorbikes in a mile around tract is Yae Kar This village far away from all seasons for Yae Kar Village. Some villages (58255). tract includes Lewe. transportation are on the left- six villages. because the The Yae Kar hand side of Instead of embankment weir is 4,000 the irrigated Lewe, villagers of the irrigated feet away from channel and go to Aye Lar channel serves Yae Kar Village. others are on Village to buy as an all-season the right-hand goods and road. side. services.
Aye Lar is located 3.5 miles from Yae Kar Village.
254 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 255 Distribution Village Tract Distance Transportation Topography Notes of Villages
01 (Ah Lel About seven They use Six member The land on The key village Kyun Village miles from motorbikes villages are in which the in this village Tract) Lewe (45 mainly for Ah Lel Kyun villages are on tract is Kyoet minutes by transportation, Village Tract. is plain; they Tan (01001) motorbike) and sometimes Between are located on and that but 80 percent used cars. each village the western outside this of villagers For medical is a space of bank of the village tract is used to go to emergencies, 3,000~4,000 Sittaung River. Thar Wut Hti Thar Wut Hti they hire an feet. (46196). Village (46196) ambulance to purchase to go to the goods and hospital. services. This village is three miles from Kyoet Tan Village (01001). About 20 percent of villagers go to Lewe. 09 (Hnget Gyi Aung Si Lar They use Four villages Aung Si Lar The key village Taung village Village (09039) motorbikes are in Hnget (09039), Aung in this village tract) is 10 miles mainly for Gyi Taung Nan Cho tract is Aung from Ye Ni transportation Village Tract. (09038) and Si Lar (09039) village tract and The distance Te Gyi Kone and that (Bago Region). sometimes between Aung (09041) are outside Hnget Hnget Gyi buses. In the Si Lar (09039) located at Gyi Taung Taung village rainy season, and Aung Nan the foot of a Village Tract is tract is far from they have to Cho (09038); mountain. Ye Ni, located Lewe so they walk from Aung Si Lar Za Li Hnget in Bago Region. rely on Ye Ni Aung Nan Cho (09039) and Gyi Taung (not in the Nay village tract (09038) to Te Gyi Kone (09040) is Pyi Taw Union (outside of the other villages (09041) is located on a Territory) Nay Pyi Taw because the 1.5 miles. hill (about 300 Union Council roads are The furthest feet above sea area) for muddy. village is Za level). getting goods Li Hnget Gyi and services. Taung (09040) at seven miles from Aung Nan Cho (09038).
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 255 AppendixAppendix 2
Survey on Purchase and Use Area of Services
Intro Interview on Livelihood Area of Rural People
Hi, I’m Aung Zai Hlang of the Myanmar Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI). I’d like to do an interview on the livelihood area of rural people with potential for urban-rural integrated development. This survey is being done by MOALI and the KDI of the Republic of Korea. As a village leader, where do residents in this village tract go to get goods and services?
Residence: where to live Town village/tract village Sex: ① Male ② Female Age:
※ This means not just going out but moving to a place for the purpose of buying necessities, meet villagers and work or farm. Q 1-1. Among village, town or city, where do village residents mostly go to buy daily necessities such as groceries and daily consumables like toothpaste? Daily necessities: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-2. Among village, town or city, where do village residents mostly visit living facilities such as a noodle or tea shop, public bath and barber? Living facilities: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-3. Among village, town or city, where do village residents mostly buy agricultural goods such as agricultural materials, pesticides and seeds? Agricultural goods: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-4. Among village, town or city, where do village residents mostly buy home appliances such as a mobile phone, TV, refrigerator, washing machine and computer? Home appliances: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-5. Among village, town or city, where do village residents receive medical treatment (general service)? General practice: District/City/Town/Village
256 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 257 Q 1-6. Among village, town or city, where do village residents receive specific medical treatment and get hospitalized? Hospitalization, general hospital: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-7. Where do village residents go for work and economic activity? Economic activity: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-8. Where do village residents go to visit their relatives or hold family meeting? Visiting or meeting up with close friends or relatives: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-9. Where do residents go for social meetings or activities such as an alumni gathering, committee, private fun event or organization meeting? Social meeting: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-10. Where do residents go for leisure and sports activities (cultural events, hobby and workout)? Culture, leisure activities: District/City/Town/Village
Q 1-11. Where can residents get civil administrative services? Civil administrative services: District/City/Town/Village
※ What is your opinion of village, village tract and township development for regional development?
Q 2-1. For regional development, which region do you think should be developed preferentially? Chose two in order of importance. 1st ( ), 2nd ( ) ① Where you live in a village or village tract ② Where you live in a town or township ③ Where you live in a city/town or district ④ Where you live in a big city such as Nay Pyi Taw ⑤ Other
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 257 Q 2-2. What task do you think is a priority of township development for improving the living convenience of rural people and rural-urban integrated development? Chose two in order of importance. 1st ( ), 2nd ( ) ① Improve roads and public transportation ② Improve health and medical facilities and services ③ Improve cultural and arts facilities and services ④ Improve education facilities and programs ⑤ Improve social and welfare facilities and programs ⑤ Organize a market and periodical market ⑥ Expand commercial and service facilities ⑦ Streamline collecting, processing and distributing agricultural products ⑧ Stimulate community activities ⑨ Other ( )
Q 2-3. What do you think of the plan to set up larger facilities in townships rather than build a few small facilities in each village? ① Strongly agree ② Agree ③ Neutral ④ Oppose ⑤ Strongly oppose ⑥ (Don’t mention) Don’t know/no response
Q 2-4. When residents need to go to another place, what vehicle is commonly used? ① Own car ② Public transportation (bus) ③ Taxi ④ Motorbike ⑤ Bicycle ⑥ Walking ⑦ Others (if any)
258 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 259 AppendixAppendix 3
No. of Facilities by Rural Settlement (Town, Village)
Surveyor:
( ) Village tract Settlement facility
Population (No. of householdx)
District office Public Township office administration Village tract office
Rural health center
Hospital Health care Private clinic
Pharmacist
Elementary school
Junior high school
Education High school
University
Education office
Gov’t bank (MADB)
Group-managed Finance & banking credit program
Money lender
Libraries
Postal service
Chapter 4 _ A Policy Study on the Integrated Rural Development in Myanmar • 259 No:
Date: . . 2017
( ) Village tract Settlement facility
Police Police & fire stations Fire station
Entertainment facility
Recreational Sports facility & cultural facilities Cultural heritage
Barbershop
Bicycle repair shop
Motorcycle repair center Private services Auto repair center
Carpenter
Mason
Home retail store
Grocery
Rice noodles
Tea shop Retail stores Big store + computer desktop publishing
Agent (crops)
Concrete production Manufacturing
260 • 2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar
2016/17 Knowledge Sharing Program with Myanmar
.go.kr www. ksp ity 30149, Korea Center for International Development, KDI cid.kdi.re.kr Knowledge Sharing Program www.ksp.go.kr (set) www.mosf.go.kr www.kdi.re.kr 94320 322297 ISBN 979-11-5932-229-7 ISBN 979-11-5932-227-3 791159 9 Korea Development Institute 263 Namsejong-ro, Sejong Special Self-Governing c Ministry of Strategy and Finance Korea Government Complex-Sejong, 477, Galmae-ro, Sejong Special Self-Governing City 30109, Tel. 82-44-215-7762 Tel. 82-44-550-4114
