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University of Warwick institutional repository: http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap/4369 This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. THE DYNAMICS OF TRIANGULAR INTRA-ALLIANCE POLII S: Political Interventions of the United States and Japan Towards South Korea in Regime Transition 1979-1980 by SUN-WON PARK A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Studies DEPARTMENT OF POLITICS AND INTERNARTIONAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK January 2000 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES vii ACKNLOWLDEMENTS viii DECLARATION x ABSTRACT xi ACRONYMS xii A NOTE ON TEXT xiii Ch. 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 THE PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH 1 1.2 THE METHODOLOGY 3 1.2.1 A Macro-Historical Perspective 3 1.2.2 US Sources 4 1.2.3 Japanese Sources 5 1.2.4 South Korean Sources 7 1.3 THE STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS 7 PART ONE THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND A HISTORICAL 13 OVERVIEW Ch. 2 THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK: INTRA-ALLIANCE POLITICS AND POLITICAL INTERVENTION 14 INTORDUCTION 14 2.1 A SYSTEMIC APPROACH TOWARDS AN ALLIANCE MODEL 15 2.2 THE TRIANGULAR ALLIANCE SECURITY SYSTEM (TASS) 19 2.3 THE SOURCES OF FLUIDITY OF ALLIANCE RELATIONS 23 2.3.1 The Endogenous Factors: Gaps in National Power and Strategies 23 2.3.2 The Exogenous Factor: Direct and Immediate Challenge 28 2.4 THE FUNDAMENTAL BASIS OF THE TASS AND "DISSIMILAR- i INTEGRATIVE" TYPE INTERACTION 30 2.5 THE ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES OF THE US AND JAPAN ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA 34 2.5.1 The Political Intervention 34 2.5.2 The US Flexible Status Quo 37 2.5.3 The Japanese Rigid Status Quo 40 CONCLUSION 44 Ch. 3 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF THE TRIANGULAR ALLIANCE SECURITY SYSTEM (TASS), 1964-1978 46 INTRODUCTION 46 3.1 THE JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION, 1964-68: THE FORMATION 47 OF THE TASS 3.1.1 The US Logic and Benefits 48 3.1.2 The Japanese Logic and Benefits 49 3.1.3 The South Korean Logic and Benefits 51 3.1.4 A New Start for Japan-South Korea Relations, 1965-68 54 3.2 THE NIXON ADMINISTRATION, 1969-74: FROM VIETNAM TO DETENTE 57 3.2.1 US-Japan Relations during the Nixon Administration, 1969-74 58 3.2.2 US Policy Towards South Korea: The Impact of Detente, 1970-74 61 3.2.3 The Strained Relations between Japan and South Korea 64 3.3 THE FORD ADMINISTRATION, 1974-76: RESTORATION OF CONVERGENCE 69 3.3.1 The Collapse of the South Vietnamese Government 70 3.3.2 US Commitment to the South Korean Security 72 3.3.3 The Role of Japan As a Mediator 74 3.4 THE FIRST YEARS OF THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION, 1977-78 77 3.4.1 Japan, the Cornerstone; South Korea, a Trouble Spot 79 3.4.2 The Influence of Japan on the Reversal of the Withdrawal Policy 81 3.4.3 The Enhanced Japanese-South Korean Relations in the Political 87 and Security Areas CONCLUSION 89 ii PART TWO THE POLITICAL INTERVENTIONS OF THE US AND JAPAN (I): JANUARY-OCTOBER 1979 INTRODUCTION TO PART TWO 94 Ch. 4 US POLICY FOR POLITICAL CHANGE IN SOUTH KOREA 99 INTRODUCTION 99 4.1. THE SHIFT IN US-SOUTH KOREA POLICY IN EARLY 1979 AND THE LIMITS OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH KOREA 100 4.2 POLITICAL FRICTION AND THE SUMMIT MEETINS 103 4.2.1 The US Approach to the Summit Meetings and the Reaction of the Park Regime 103 4.2.2 The Carter-Park Summit Meetings, 29 June-IJuly 1979 106 4.3 THE POLITICAL UNREST, US INTERVENTION, AND THE DEMISE OF THE PARK REGIME 109 4.3.1 The Domestic Challenge 110 4.3.2 The Diplomatic Strains with the Carter Administration 113 4.3.3 The Pusan and Masan Uprising and the Demise of the Park Regime 116 CONCLUSION 118 Ch. 5 JAPANESE DEFENSSIVE INTERVENTION 121 INTRODUCTION 121 5.1 JAPAN'S VIEW ON THE SOUTH KOREAN POLITICS AND THE LIMITS OF POLICY SHIFT 122 5.1.1 The Disjunction between Economic Development and Political Democratisation in South Korea 122 5.1.2 The Limits of Policy ShiftTowards the Korean Peninsula 123 5.2 JAPANESE DEFENISIVE INTERVENTION 125 5.2.1 Political Co-operation with the Park Regime 126 5.2.2 Human Exchanges in the Defence Sector 128 5.3 THE CARTER-PARK SUMMIT MEETINGS AND THE OHIRA CABINET: A SYSTEMIC INTERPRETATION 133 ,. < ýýt 5.4 JAPAN'S EVALUATION OF THE US MANAGEMENT OF SOUTH KOREAN POLITICS 138 CONCLUSION 141 CONCLUSION TO PART TWO 144 PART THREE THE POLITICAL INTERVENTIONS OF THE US AND JAPAN(II): NOVEMEBR 1979-JANAURY 1981 INTRODUCTION TO PART THREE 146 Ch. 6 US INTERVENTION TOWARDS SOUTH KOREA IN REGIME TRANSITION: THE FLEXIBLE STATUS QUO POLICY 150 INTRODUCTION 150 6.1 THE PRIORITY OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE POST- PARK ERA IN SOUTH KOREA 153 6.1.1 The Visit of Secretary of State Vance to Seoul 153 6.1.2 The Impact of the Iran Hostage Incident 156 6.1.3 The Military Coup of 12 December and the US Restraints 160 6.2 US ASSESSMENTS OF THE SOUTH KOREAN REGIME TRANSITION 168 6.2.1 Washington's Assessments on the South Korean Politics 169 6.2.2 The US Embassy's Assessments on the Moves of the Chun Doo- hwan Group 171 6.2.3 General Chun's Challenge to the US 176 6.2.4 The US Approval of the Contingency Plan for the Special Forces Deployments 179 6.3 THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION, THE 17 MAY MILITARY COUP, AND THE KWANGJU MASSACRE 182 6.3.1 The North Korean Card and the 17 May Coup 182 IV 6.3.2 The Clashes in Kwangju and the US Actions 185 6.4 THE US PRESSURE ON THE NEW MILITARY REGIME 189 6.4.1 The Initial Measures for Long-term Pressure 190 6.4.2 The Wars of Nerves between the Carter Administration and the Chun Regime 192 6.4.3 The Chun Regime and the New Republican Reagan Administration 196 CONCLUSION 198 Ch.7 THE JAPANESE INTERVENTION IN THE SOUTH KOREAN REGIME TRANSITION 205 INTRODUCTION 205 7.1 US-JAPAN RELATIONS, NOVEMBER 1979-MARCH 1980: POLITICAL DIPLOMACY 207 7.2 THE INITIAL ACTIONS OF THE OHIRA CABINET IN RESPONSE TO THE DEATH OF PRESIDENT PARK 210 7.2.1 Japan's Alliance Management of South Korean Politics: Continuity and Stability 211 7.2.2 The Initial Actions 212 7.2.3 The Lack of High-Level Policy Co-ordination between the US and Japan 214 7.3 THE 12 DECEMBER COUP 1979 AND JAPAN 215 7.3.1 Japan's Focus on General Chun Doo-hwan 215 7.3.2 The 12 December Coup And The Ohira Cabinet 217 7.4 ANTI-KIM DAE-JUNG CAMPAIGN AND JAPAN 223 7.4.1 The Japanese Response to Kim's Political Roll-Back, December 1979 224 7.4.2 Japan's Co-operation with Chun's Anti-Kim Dae-jung Campaign, March-June 1980 226 7.5 JAPAN'S SUPPORT FOR CHUN DOO-HWAN 228 7.5.1 Japanese Provision of Intelligence Before and After the 12 December Coup 1979 229 7.5.2 Japanese Provision of Intelligence Before the 17 May Coup 1980 231 7.5.3 The Ohira Cabinet and the Carter Administration in Late April U and Early May 1980 236 7.6 THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SOUTH KOREAN MILITARY JUNTA LED BY CHUN 241 7.6.1 The Visits of Japanese Diplomatic Missions 242 7.6.2 Ryuzo Sejima's Meetings with the Leaders of the Military Junta 245 7.7 THE SUZUKI CABINET AND THE KIM DAE-JUNG TRIAL, JULY 1980-JANUARY 1981 249 7.7.1 The Pressure from the Suzuki Cabinet to Commute the Death Sentence 250 7.7.2 Alliance Management and the North Korean Question 254 CONCLUSION 258 CONCLUSION TO PART THREE 262 Ch. 8 CONCLUSION 263 INTRODUCTION 263 8.1 INTRA-ALLIANCE POLITICS AND THE TRIANGULAR ALLIANCE SECURITY SYSTEM (TASS) 263 8.2 THE POLITICAL INTERVENTIONS OF THE US AND JAPAN: A SYSTEMIC APPROACH AND ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT 266 8.3 A PROSPECT FOR THE TASS: OLD BOTTOM LINES AND NEW ARRANGEMENTS 271 8.4 THE LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS OF THE RESEARCH 276 APPENDIX: THE LISTS OF ARCHIVAL SITES AND INTERVIEWEES 280 BIBLIOGRAPHY 283 vi LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES Table 2.1 The Asymmetric Spheres of Influence of the US, Japan and South Korea 24 Table 2.2 Power Capability Rankings (1980) 25 Table 2.3 Four Types of Interactive Patterns in a Sub-system 33 Table 5.1 Political Exchanges between Japan and South Korea, April-May 1979 131 Table 5.2 The Exchanges of Military Officers Between Japan and South Korea, 134 1974-1978 Table 7.1 The Japanese Provision of Intelligence about North Korean Military Moves to the Chun Group 237 Table 7.2 The Suzuki Cabinet and the Chun Regime on the Kim Dae-jung Trial, 261 November -December 1980 Table 8.2 A Comparative Summary of the Political Intervention of the US and Towards South Korea 276 FIGURES Figure 2.1 The Triangular Alliance Security System (TASS) 21 Figure 7.1 The Political Risk Index of South Korea, 1972-83 245 vii ACKNLOWLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to a number of individuals and institutes for their useful comments, suggestions, encouragement, and assistance.