Communicating Science Based Healthcare Conspiracy theories A new Chair-entity Skeptical Desiderata The Kardashian Index Good germs and bad germs

number 113 – spring 2014 content editorial

Communicating skepticism or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the Media 3 Thanks for all the fish

Society for Science Based Healthcare – up and running 8 T’S about 25 years since I joined the NZ Skeptics, and eight years since I took on the editorship of this magazine. It’s been fun, Book Review: The Orphan I Conspiracies 10 but it’s time I handed the NZ Skeptic on to other hands, so this will be my last issue as editor. Thank-you to all who have contributed Newsfront 12 over the years; together we’ve covered a lot of ground. I thought Skeptical Desiderata 15 I’d indulge myself a little here by looking back over past issues and some of the material in them. Interview with the entity 16

Yet another science metric Some topics never go away. remains as – the Kardashian Index 18 popular as ever, and mediums are still fleecing the vulnerable and the grieving. Others, such as crop circles, may emerge, prosper for a Forum 20 time and then fade. A few may morph in unexpected and occasion- From the vaults: Group wants ally alarming directions. Hypnotic regression started out as a means cash to fight ritual abuse 21 of ‘discovering’ a person’s past lives or alien abduction experiences Survival in a bacterial (see p 5) but became more sinister when subjects began to report world 22 instances of satanic ritual abuse and, later (coupled with flawed inter- rogations of children), more conventional forms of sexual abuse (see NZ Skeptic 50, this issue p 21). The worldwide ISSN - 1172-062X played an important role in highlighting the insanities of the moral panic that arose. Though the panic has since faded much damage Contributions remains, and ‘regression therapists’ continue to practise. Contributions are welcome and should be sent to: The skeptics themselves have also changed. As Martin Bridg- stock wrote in NZ Skeptic 102, the average skeptic was once “over- David Riddell whelmingly likely to be male, older than average, very intelligent, 122 Woodlands Rd mostly conservative and grumpily critical of anything to do with the RD1 Hamilton Email: [email protected] paranormal.” More recently though, there has been “an influx of skeptics who are much younger, much less likely to be bearded, and Deadline for next issue: who include a substantial minority of women.” They are also more December 10 2014 likely to be atheists (though there are plenty among the old school), Letters for the Forum may be edited and it is unlikely we will see another article like Dr Robert Mann’s in as space requires - up to 250 words NZ Skeptic 42, arguing that Christianity was the only ethical system is preferred. Please indicate the under which science is known to flourish – something that generated publication and date of all clippings a huge response in Issue 43! for the Newsfront. But NZ Skeptics has always had members who hold a wide range Material supplied by email or CD is appreciated. of political and philosophical views, and that has helped to keep the society lively and vibrant. We might all agree that rationality Permission is given to other non- is a Good Thing that we should all aspire to, but we’re human, our profit skeptical organisations to brains are an evolutionary hodgepodge rather than perfectly designed reprint material from this publication provided the author and NZ Skeptic reasoning machines, and some matters simply defy rational analysis are acknowledged. – at least with our current level of knowledge. We won’t always all agree on everything. But we (I hope) can agree that the world is an Opinions expressed in the New Zealand Skeptic are those of the amazing place that is better understood and appreciated by assuming individual authors and do not it operates according to natural, rather than principles, necessarily represent the views of that it’s okay to say ‘I don’t know’ rather than sieze on a paranormal NZ Skeptics (Inc.) or its officers. explanation for an unexplained phenomenon, and that these are views which are worth promoting and defending. number 113 – spring 2014 main feature Communicating skepticism or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the Media

Kylie Sturgess

The spread of new technologies has caused an upheaval in the world of the media, but gives skeptics many causes for optimism. This article is based on a presentation to the 2013 NZ Skeptics Conference in Wellington.

S a podcaster and a student . There are plenty productive about strange and Aof broadcast media, there of people, who may not have sometimes harmful claims. are a few things I’ve noticed over formal schooling in a field, who the years that have led me to be have taken on the challenge of All of these examples are also more optimistic. I am optimistic doing something positive and great people to talk to, and the because there are plenty discussions I have with of opportunities for the skeptics like these (and general public to influence many others) feature on the media and a grow- my podcast, the Token ing number resources for Skeptic. those wishing to promote I usually define podcasts science and technology in as the equivalent of online general. radio shows. Sometimes I think about the fantas- it seems as if everyone tic and influential skeptics has a podcast; you’ll find out there – people who dozens of them out there have PhDs like Dr Karen covering practically any Stollznow and Dr Eug- topic you care to name. enie Scott, or have PhDs Skepticism is no excep- and do magic tricks, like tion in that regard. Dr Richard Wiseman. I If you would like to also think about skeptics know more about podcast- who have faced and chal- ing, or even how to start lenged and your own (and why, de- paranormal claims in both spite there being plenty of their personal and profes- them, you should certainly sional lives – people like consider doing one if you Loretta Marron, Hayley feel like it) – you can find Stevens, Sharon Hill or

page  communication resources on the Token Skeptic 1800s. They are an example “When I first began doing palm website, including interviews of spiritualists who eventually reading for money, I did not with the likes of Dr Pamela Gay admitted that they did not have believe that it really worked. on how to get started. psychic abilities. Yet according However, I was amazed when my to the parapsychologist whose clients insisted that everything I I should warn you I’ll be men- was telling them was uncannily tioning the podcast a lot accurate. By the time I began – once upon a time I was the college, I was a true believer. It’s also very important for host of an atheist confer- I had no doubts that palmistry ence and some members of skeptics to learn about what kind worked. the audience tweeted, “Oh, of world we’re in, the history of “When I was a sophomore in not another one with a pod- the field, and how people are led college, a friend suggested cast…” As I said, there’s to believe in weird things – which that I try and read my next nothing new or particularly includes people like ourselves. client’s palm by telling her special about being a skep- the opposite of what the tic with a podcast. lines said. If her heart line indicated that she did not like But what I do with my podcast presentation I attended, the Fox to display her emotions, I would is use it to reflect research I’ve sisters never recanted their psy- tell her that she was the sort of done into a number of different chic powers. In her community person who displays her emo- areas, including the thesis I even- of spiritualists, they continue to tions openly, and so on. tually wrote on Australian para- be very influential examples of “To my astonishment, this client normal belief. If it wasn’t for spiritualists who can communi- was thrilled at how accurately I podcasting, it would be highly cate with the dead. had captured her personality. So I tried the same experiment on unlikely that I would have had I assumed that by saying “the my next few clients. The results many of the great opportunities Fox sisters” that any skeptic that I’ve had – like talking at were the same! By now, I was would know who I was talking coming to realization that what- events like last year’s NZ Skep- about. Or that they may have tics Conference, networking ever was happening in a palm checked out the book The Psy- reading session, it had nothing to with people and helping science chic Mafia by Lamar M Keene, do with the lines in the hand.” communication groups. which discusses these spiritual- My thinking that skeptics Skeptical history ist churches in detail and how Keene himself used to work as in general already know these I can mention the names of a spiritualist before admitting stories, have read this book or ‘great skeptics’ and I generally all his psychic activities were that book, or have done research assume that my audience knows achieved by fraudulent means. into a particular field is a huge who these people are too. But assumption on my part. I don’t when I arrived in Wellington for In addition, I would think mean to be judgemental – this the conference last year, I ended that most skeptics would likely isn’t anything that’s unusual for up chatting over coffee with know about psychologist Ray any field that is growing and de- Matthew, who along with Cherry Hyman, who is considered one veloping and getting new people were nice enough to pick me up of the founders of the modern- interested in it all the time. at the airport. And when I told day skeptic movement. He, Finding out that skeptics are him about the first time I heard along with , Paul just as human as anyone else, a parapsychologist give a talk I Kurtz and , used and that people you used to look realised I was making a lot of to believe in palmistry and was up to in skepticism are just as assumptions. a practitioner, much as Lamar M Keene was a practitioner of fallible as anyone anywhere, is As I started talking about spiritualism. an important lesson too. the parapsychologist’s research I find myself thinking that on the growth of spiritualist As Professor Hyman said in I need to keep on reading and churches in Australia, I men- an interview with the American listening, and talk to more and tioned the Fox sisters from the station PBS: number 113 – spring 2014 communication more people if I feel discour- weight, gained a new boyfriend influenced by our values and the aged or think that I don’t know and is made of biodegradable people around us. enough about a topic to have an plastic, all in the same sentence. informed opinion – all of which (Sometimes you want to know This is where effective skep- led to my starting a podcast back about whether the Dark Energy ticism starts crossing over into in 2009. Survey is really going to explain the need to learn more about ef- whether the universe is expand- fective science communication So, communicating skepti- ing at an accelerated rate… and – especially if, like me, you’re cism is not just about outreach whether Sara Tetro will host the of the view that skepticism is to those people who may not new season of New Zealand’s about understanding and using know Ray Hyman’s palm read- Next Top Model.) that understanding to inform ing story and believe that there both yourself and others about is something in palmistry. It’s While at the hairdressers I paranormal and pseudoscientific also very important for skeptics found an article about Austral- claims, especially if there’s a risk to learn about what kind of world ian women bonding over their of harm. Inspiring Australia In 2010 the Aus- tralian government began an initiative called Inspiring Aus- tralia. While I’m not employed by Inspir- ing Australia, I’ve worked at events where they have been involved, such as Sci- enceRewired confer- ences. Inspiring Australia is an Australian na- tional strategy for en- Support group: Like-minded alien alien abductees share their experiences in New Idea. gagement with the sciences. Its goals we’re in, the history of the field, shared experience of contact include improving science com- and how people are led to believe with alien life visiting Earth. munication and helping engage in weird things – which includes the Australian community with people like ourselves. One of them is a scientist; the science. It has produced a range others are teachers and account- of programmes and expanded For example, before the Wel- ants or clerical workers. They’re existing ones to help achieve lington conference started, I all involved in a network of like- its goals, including publishing decided to go to the hairdresser minded alien abductees, who talk reports from expert working – which is the only place I ever about how they used to feel very groups, a Science Engagement feel comfortable about reading isolated and afraid about how Toolkit, Prime Minister’s Prizes the kinds of magazines that peo- they’d be treated by the general for Science and National Science ple usually laugh about. Those public, until they started talking Week. There is a similar initia- kinds of magazines which fea- to each other and sharing their tive in the UK called the British ture Angelina Jolie looking really experiences. Council, which runs science upset about being photographed For me this is an excellent projects to communicate mes- with a huge fluorescent banner sages around exciting or topical on her face saying she’s lost reminder of how scientific un- derstandings are reinforced and

page  communication scientific issues, focusing on For me, such a survey firstly both both. But they have funda- science and sustainability. seemed odd, considering how mental values that some science popular science seems to be and technology clashes strongly There are a great number of amongst pop culture – the most with. So, what to do? science outreach and consulta- popular podcasts online include tion groups in Australia much those by Dr Karl Kruszelnicki Communication as there are in New Zealand, and Brian Cox and Robin Ince’s The interaction between online as Elf Eldridge described in his The Infinite Monkey Cage; both talk at the conference (see NZ and the real world is where I like Brian Cox’s and David Attenbor- to live when it comes to science Skeptic 109). ScienceRewired ough’s tours sell out when they is one of them. They have run and skepticism, and contributing two conferences where they have to both is what I work on. For gathered together a number of example, in Australia there’s a these groups to discuss similar concern about how the main- interests and goals, and even stream media communicates sci- to see if united projects can be ence. In the space of two years, encouraged. Another is Science 1000 journalist jobs were lost, in Public, which train scientists and science reporters were par- to interact with the media. ticularly badly hit. That doesn’t mean that we lost all health and But back to the UFO-believing science coverage. And that also women in my gossip magazine doesn’t mean that we as readers at the hairdresser. One of them – and more importantly, consum- was a scientist. In fact, there are ers – can’t encourage coverage probably plenty of creationists, in the media. global warming denialists and tour overseas. I know of many paranormal claim supporters scientists, artists and activists I ended up contacting a jour- who say “but I’m a scientist…” who have signed on to be a part nalist, who, with no skeptical Why is there a problem? of an app called the Incomplete group influence, created the No Map of the Cosmic Genome, and Jab No Play Campaign in the Australian science communi- probably everyone here thinks Sunday Telegraph. This cam- cators Dr Will Grant and Merryn “Science Is F*ing Awesome” paign, which started in the state McKinnon have said on The – so why is there a gap? of New South Wales and called Conversation website (another for the state government to ban great source for science out- Dr Craig Cormick of Austral- non-immunised children from reach) that knowing science fac- ia’s CSIRO has written: daycare facilities, ran for two toids doesn’t necessarily indicate “Values-based studies show there weeks, and was then echoed by a in-depth understanding: are strong and existing values that number of other media outlets. largely impact the way we think “Science literacy surveys such The stories included personal as these do nothing except keep about science and technology, and any attempts to educate or accounts of family tragedies academics busy, tick various and resilience (such as the case grant recipient boxes and make inform people about the benefits or risks of any new technology of Dana McCaffery, who died the general public feel more dis- of whooping cough aged four illusioned about their scientific will be accepted or rejected based weeks), and regional effects of abilities. Would a Nobel laureate on people’s existing values.” in physics be able to answer biol- low vaccination rates. The cam- We also saw this in the re- paign’s prompting of political ogy questions? Possibly. But we search that was demonstrated don’t ask them to. We recognise figures resulted in changed laws at the conference by Matt Mc- it’s not their field of expertise. in support of vaccination. Other So why are we asking the general Crudden, on how people may not media outlets, like the Sydney public questions about science reject the science on the basis of Morning Herald and Herald Sun, unrelated to most peoples’ exper- lacking scientific literacy or edu- soon echoed the pro-vaccination tise or day-to-day lives?” cation – they often have plenty of rally. number 113 – spring 2014 communication

The journalist I contacted and she doesn’t even identify as for bloggers and pay for their wrote: a skeptic. Her values were what efforts through advertising. made her act, and those shared Basically it started because I was values were a bridge to others to • Creating book clubs and sug- searching for a childcare centre gesting good texts; in NSW and became aware of promote action. the loophole in the law. I asked Of course, science and tech- • Improving our general Sunday Telegraph editor Mick nology continues to be a political knowledge of skeptical history Carroll and Daily Telegraph edi- issue – and scientists will con- and celebrating those figures so tor Paul Whittaker if they were they are not forgotten through keen to let me run a campaign. tinue to comment and encourage action on political movements events and outreach about what They were, so I assigned report- they have done. ers led by Jane Hansen to about in a number of ways. We can 35 story ideas and we approached do our part by not only encour- • Free video hangouts and state and federal governments aging community radio, local conferences could be a solution telling them what we were about newspapers, donating and vot- to the isolation that many of to do. Neither had a commitment ing in favour of their messages, us feel in an overwhelmingly to change the law so we started but by being media producers credulous world. Inclusivity – as rolling out the stories from May ourselves. 5th. mentioned by Dr Pamela Gay Tactics can include: at the NZ Skeptics Conference We ran approximately 60 stories last year – is easy to reflect in and by two weeks later, NSW • Wikipedia editing – there’s a events like that one and others. Opposition leader John Robert- number of groups, started by the Outreach means taking a step to son and Tony Abbott both said Royal Institution in the UK, who make the changes you want to they would act. Robertson said have done “Wiki-bombing” to have made, and to continue in he would introduce bills to parlia- improve the profiles of women in that direction if at first you don’t ment – whereupon premier Barry O’Farrell announced he’d put a science and science topics. The succeed. same can and has been done for plan to Cabinet that went even • Finally, passing on infor- further than Robertson’s pro- skeptical topics and people. mation and news you find fun, posed bill. We are still campaign- ing for federal change – although • Improving and updating ex- interesting and enjoyable to your Abbott is on board, we’d rather isting flyers on skeptical topics; friends and family, because in my experience, it also helps re- have legislation before parlia- • Creating media releases; ment than a promise. fresh your own passion for skep- • Working on finding contacts ticism. It’s why I podcast. It’s We have copped a huge amount who are willing to speak to the why I continue to be a student of of vitriol and nastiness but also skepticism. It’s why I’m here. vast support from our readers. press and building a media list Our heartland is western Sydney, that can be featured for easy Kylie Sturgess is a Philosophy where the vast majority of par- reference for mainstream media. teacher, blogger at Patheos and ents vaccinate. Their children’s I joined a number of community podcaster at Token Skeptic, and has health is put at risk by parents in radio stations as a volunteer and conducted over a hundred inter- wealthy parts of Sydney where discovered that they, and main- views including artists, scientists, politicians and activists worldwide. rates are much lower, and in stream media, often enjoy good She’s the author of The Scope Of ‘alternative lifestyle’ areas like skeptical stories to feature along Skepticism: Interviews, Essays Byron Bay where rates are shock- with news items. and Observations From the Token ingly low. Skeptic Podcast, writes the ‘Curi- • Sites like Doubtful News and ouser and Curiouser‘ column at We are proud to have changed the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry the law but now we want to help Snopes collate information from around the world, and they could website and travels internationally change people’s attitudes by con- lecturing on feminism, skepticism tinuing to report the facts about all use our support – it’d also be and science. vaccinations – they save lives. great to see more self-sustaining sites like Freethought Blogs, who One journalist became in- have both provided a platform spired and made a difference,

page  activism Society for Science Based Healthcare – up and running

A new group advocating a strong basis in rigorous science for the provision of safe and effective healthcare has been established in New Zealand. Mark Hanna explains.

HERE is a lot of medical right to make informed choices misinformation, and to support Tnonsense in New Zealand. about their healthcare, medical healthcare options that are based It’s common to see large ‘Natural nonsense is flourishing in New on science such as vaccination Health’ sections in pharmacies Zealand. Pharmacists are bound and community water fluorida- containing homeopathic prod- by their industry code of ethics tion. Primarily, we make use of ucts and similarly unevidenced not to sell or promote products the current regulatory framework concoctions. Listen to the radio without “credible evidence of in order to remove misleading and you’ll likely hear ads for efficacy”, health testimonials in medical claims from advertise- unevidenced ‘Sleep Drops’ or ads are banned by the Medicines ments and publications. magnetic mattress underlays Act, and unsubstantiated repre- that purportedly offer ‘Drug Free sentations in trade are banned Although the society was Pain Relief’. You won’t have to by the Fair Trading Act. Yet you only founded in June this year, look far to find a chiropractor don’t have to look far to find ex- we have been collaborating as who’ll claim to treat anything amples of any or all of these. a group for months prior to that from asthma to autism, or an and have accomplished a fair acupuncturist that’ll unblock In many cases the problem deal in that time. Here are a few the flow of the undetectable is that the regulations aren’t examples of our successes from substrate of the universe with a actively enforced. If no one earlier this year: needle, in order to cure your ar- brings violations to the attention of the regulators, they will be A chiropractic business called thritis. You may even find them Vital Chiropractic made a number sharing an office. left alone. Even when they are pointed out, sometimes the body of claims regarding chiropractic Even the New Zealand gov- in charge of dealing with it sim- on their website, including that: ernment supports some of this. ply doesn’t have the resources to “those with back pain, sciatica, The New Zealand Qualifications spare. There is a very real need headaches, [insert condition Authority (NZQA) accredits for activism in this area. here] usually feel a whole lot courses on pseudoscientific top- better when they are under Chi- ics ranging from homeopathy to In an effort to turn the tide of ropractic care” medical pseudoscience, a new iridology. The Accident Com- and that: pensation Corporation (ACC) activist organisation has been uses public money to fund acu- founded. The Society for Sci- “Chiropractic is SO good at puncture for many injury types, ence Based Healthcare exists boosting the immune system that even when their own reviews to protect your right to make people under regular chiropractic of the literature have shown the informed choices about your care have an immune system that functions 200% better”. treatments to be unsupported by healthcare. evidence. The society is a group of Upon seeing these claims on their website, we laid a com- Despite the regulations in experts and activists working plaint with the ASA on the basis place to protect the public’s to counter this mountain of number 113 – spring 2014 activism that they did not seem to be sup- out to be a laughable mess) was ported by evidence. Although the due to be completed in the US Recent successes advertiser attempted to provide soon, but they didn’t have any These are the latest claims evidence to support its claims, evidence at the time. As such, taken to the ASA by the SSBH, the ASA’s complaints board the ASA upheld the complaint with their outcomes and ruled that what they provided and these products have since names of the submitters. was “not sufficiently robust” to been removed from their New Romoco Wellness website substantiate their claims, and Zealand website. (Settled: Mark Honeychurch) therefore ruled that the claims be removed. In June, New Zealand’s larg- Rainmaker H2O website est ‘natural health’ store Health (Upheld: Gold) In May, a US business called 2000 stated in their bimonthly Osmosis Skincare generated a free magazine/catalogue that In-Sync Minerals in New fair amount of media attention the influenza vaccine is an “on- Zealand Journal of Natural (Upheld: about what they were saying was slaught of toxins and mercury”. Medicine magazine Gold) an “innovative new technology” We challenged them on this fact, for preventing sunburn. All you informing them that the flu jab Woolrest Biomag Google had to do was take some of it in New Zealand doesn’t contain ads and website (Settled: with some water a short time thiomersal (known in the US as Mark Hanna) before heading out into the sun, thimerosal), the mercury-based NZ Bowen Therapy in New and you’d be protected from UV preservative whose safety is Zealand Journal of Natural radiation. The odd part, though, supported by years of epidemio- Medicine magazine (Settled: is that this product is just plain logical evidence. Under threat of Simon McAuliffe) old water, albeit with a sprinkling having the complaint escalated to of pseudoscience. We laid a the Press Council, the editor of complaint with the ASA regard- Health 2000’s publication prom- else who might be interested, let ing these claims, on the basis that ised to print a “clarification” in them know we exist and want they were unsubstantiated and their next issue clarifying that their help. You can contact the that they abused scientific termi- their characterisation of the flu society via email at [email protected]. nology, applying a smokescreen vaccine was wrong, which they nz, or read some more about us of pseudoscientific jargon like have since complied with. on our website at sbh.org.nz “isolates the precise frequencies We’re looking for people who Mark Hanna is a consumer needed to neutralize UVA and advocate from Auckland who are willing and able to help us UVB”. In response to the com- recently co-founded the Society plaint, the company responded with this work. If you’re an for Science Based Healthcare. You that an “independent clinical expert in a relevant field, or you can read about his activism at honestuniverse.com or follow him trial” (which predictably turned want to try your hand at some activism, please get in touch on Twitter at @HonestUniverse with us. If you know someone

by Nick Kim

page  book review ‘Orphan Conspiracies’ in need of a good home

The Orphan Conspiracies: 29 Conspiracy Theories from The Orphan Trilogy, by James & Lance Morcan. US$5.62 (Kindle Edition), Amazon. Reviewed by David Riddell.

ANCE and James Morcan Brown holds the top two spots), researchers” who may publish Lare a New Zealand father- so I’m not sure how credible that awkward truths. and-son writing team who have ranking is. between them produced five nov- The book is divided into 29 els. These include The Orphan In the course of researching chapters, each outlining a par- Trilogy, a series about a group background for their books, the ticular conspiracy, or set of of genetically enhanced super- Morcans say they explored “all conspiracies. The first is on humans raised from birth to do sorts of alternative concepts” and false flag operations, in which a the bidding of a shadowy elite sought out people who could en- country’s political and/or mili- who secretly control the world. lighten them about these. Many tary leaders stage an attack by Sounds far-fetched, although readers have asked how much an enemy in order to justify Goodreads members have rated truth there is in the conspiracies their own aggression. There are the first in the series, The Ninth they describe, and The Orphan several documented accounts of Orphan, at #7 on the site’s list of Conspiracies sets out to answer such events, although one of the Best Spy Novels – just behind those questions. best examples, the staged as- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo sault on a German border radio They take pains in their intro- station at Gleiwitz1 used by the and just ahead of Smiley’s Peo- duction to distance themselves ple. On the other hand the entire Nazis to justify their invasion of from those they refer to as the Poland, is not mentioned by the trilogy rates only 255th equal on Tinfoil Hat Network; probably the Conspiracy Fiction list (Dan Morcans. Rather, they frame 95 percent of conspir- recent tensions with North Ko- acy theories are pure rea in these terms, and provide crackpot stuff with not considerable detail on the Gulf a shred of evidence to of Tonkin incident2 which led support them, they say. to the ramping up of American But, they maintain, military involvement in Vietnam. there are more believ- However although declassified able theories out there documents now clearly show which are potentially that the Americans fired first, and true. Without pausing that a second alleged attack by for breath and without North Vietnamese naval forces a trace of irony they never happened, to me the in- then give an exam- cident looks more like cock-up ple: the Establishment than conspiracy. Certainly the discredits conspiracy Americans didn’t profit from it theories in general in the long term. by disseminating the most bizarre output This chapter also has some from the Tinfoil Hat- interesting material on Op- ters, so as to under- eration Northwoods3, which mine the credibility involved plans drawn up by of those “independent number 113 – spring 2014 book review the Joint Chiefs of Staff to as- with minimal evidence, sassinate Cuban émigrés, sink they suggest assassins boats of Cuban refugees, hijack such as Lee Harvey Os- planes, blow up a US ship, and wald, Mark Chapman orchestrate terrorism in Ameri- (Chapman’s victim John can cities, all to be blamed on Lennon, being prominent Fidel Castro as a justification for in the peace movement, intervention in Cuba. The plans was evidently a major were real enough, but they were threat to the establish- rejected by President Kennedy in ment) and Sirhan Sirhan 1962, and Joint Chiefs chairman were mind-controlled General Lyman Lemnitzer was “real-life Manchurian transferred to another job a few Candidates”, acting un- months later. “The following der the influence of sub- year, Kennedy was assassinated liminal commands, pos- in Dallas, Texas, while Lem- sibly embedded in JD nitzer was appointed Supreme Salinger’s novel Catcher Allied Commander of NATO,” in the Rye. They por- the Morcans (correctly) state. tray Sirhan as being in a “Go figure!” they add. “hypnotic state” the night he shot Robert Kennedy, Sirhan Sirhan: Crazed lone gunman or The next chapter on mind con- and ignore statements he mind-controlled Manchurian Candidate, or something else? Photo: California trol starts fairly solidly with the has made in intervening 4 Department of Corrections. Nazi Lebensborn programme, years8 that he killed the which is well-documented al- presidential candidate While continuing to mock the though it involved conven- because of his support for Israel Tinfoil Hatters, the authors’ tional indoctrination techniques (Sirhan is a Palestinian). evidence for their claim that a on young children rather than shadowy “Splinter Civilization” ‘brainwashing’ of adults. The Rather more interesting is the secretly controls global affairs authors slide from this by way Morcans’ take on John Hinckley for their own benefit repeatedly of Project Paperclip5 (which after Jr, who attempted to assassinate strains credibility. World War II relocated German Ronald Reagan. They point scientists, many of them Nazis) out, apparently correctly9, that Take the chapter on suppressed to America’s Project MK-Ultra. Hinckley’s father was a personal science. This has plenty of ma- This latter programme, also well- friend of George HW Bush – who terial that is very familiar to documented in spite of the CIA would have become president skeptics, such as the suppos- destroying most records of it in had the assassination attempt edly suppressed discoveries of 1973, investigated mind control succeeded. His brother was due Nikola Tesla, free-energy ma- and interrogation techniques, in- to have lunch with George W chines repeatedly quashed by the cluding attempts to erase person- Bush the day after the shooting. scientific and industrial elites, alities of subjects and construct Fascinating stuff, though surely HAARP, and of course cold fu- new ones. Sadly, the researchers if the Bush family had prior sion. All these claims have been became very adept at the former knowledge they would have thoroughly debunked. Another but never managed the latter, taken steps to distance them- chapter describes the work of leaving many of their experimen- selves from Hinckley’s family in “leading Japanese scientist” tal subjects severely damaged6. the period around the event? Or Takaaki Musha (who wrote the The programme’s director, Sid- perhaps the Bushes are cleverer book’s Foreword); he claims ney Gottlieb, concluded his work than they appear, and that’s just “superluminal tunnelling pho- had been useless7. what they want us to think... tons” in microtubules in the brain explain human intelligence, and The Morcans, however, are That’s about as good as The could lead to the development of not so sure. In later chapters, Orphan Conspiracies gets. To Page 14

page 11 newsfront Compiled by David Riddell Welcome to ‘enlightenment’

ERALD on Sunday (17 was followed by another yarn profile on the Skeptics by free- HAugust) reporter Russell about a lion cub that had been lance journalist Jeremy Olds Blackstock has been along to adopted by a flock of sheep. check out Avatar – not the movie, “Magenta-haired” Auckland but a self-improvement course Before forming Avatar in University microbiologist Sioux- founded by an ex-Scientologist. 1986, Palmer and his partner ran sie Wiles said it felt like Skeptics the Elmira Church of Scientol- was the wrong name for the Blackstock’s “induction into ogy, until the church sued them group “...we’re critical think- self-empowerment” began at the for trademark infringement. In ers.” organisation’s first New Zealand 2005 the Florida Department of event in Auckland’s Mercure Health found he used the term Olds described the society’s Hotel, with two “Avatar masters” ‘psychologist’ illegally and made inception in 1986, and earlier whispering into his ears from ei- him sign a cease-and-desist struggles with names. “[T]he ther side. “Would you like to rise agreement. late Bernard Howard ... recalled above the sorrows and struggles in an 1999 editorial: ‘We were of the world and see them as they Otago University psychology worried about a name for our really are?” one asks. lecturer Jackie Hunter says Ava- new baby – a snappy New Zea- tar looks very warm and fuzzy on land Skeptics or a lengthy dig- “Would you like to experience the surface. “When you delve a nified New Zealand Committee the state of consciousness tradi- bit deeper, it is all largely based for the Scientific Investigation tionally described as enlighten- on a concept of ‘me, me, me’,” of Claims of the Paranormal, on ment?” the other adds. he says. “Focusing almost solely the US model.’ on oneself, however, is unlikely Avatar, whose headquarters are to bring anyone much true hap- “They went for the latter, but in Orlando, Florida, is believed piness; just the opposite.” brevity soon won out.” to have more than 100,000 fol- lowers in more than 50 countries. Blackstock also reports how The Skeptics were said to be It is alleged to use multi-level a distraught Kiwi couple said enraged when Stratford psychics marketing techniques to recruit they felt “helpless” watching a Alex and Donna Fairclough young newcomers, who may go close family member rack up claimed to have helped locate on to spend thousands of dol- tens of thousands of dollars of missing person Stephen Murphy lars on courses. On offer at the debt after being introduced to (NZ Skeptic 111). Spokesperson Mercure event were a nine-day the Avatar programme. “She Vicki Hyde told a local paper the international programme costing looked like someone who had comments were irresponsible, $3050, or a two-day workshop just had a mental breakdown or because the psychic industry for $402.50. Blackstock didn’t was sedated. Beside some obvi- exploits the vulnerable. “It gave sign up for either, but did attend ous changes in her behaviour, [psychics] a legitimacy they a free one-hour session featuring her critical thinking was non- don’t deserve,” she recalled. a video of Avatar founder Harry existent. She was acting like a “I don’t really care what they Palmer addressing a confer- robot.” have to say. We know the truth ence. The couple say their relative and that’s the way it is,” Donna “I’m going to tell you about has now left Avatar and is recov- Fairclough responded. impressions,” he began, before ering from her experience. “Jeers like hers don’t faze the launching into a tale about di- skeptics, though, who believe nosaur feet imprints found in a criticism leveraged against them desert creek alongside others left Skeptics look beyond belief is mostly based on mispercep- by early humans. “Let me now tion,” Olds wrote. tell you a story about two frogs The Sunday Star-Times (1 stuck in a pit,” he continued. This June) has published a lengthy number 113 – spring 2014 newsfront

“They say, ‘skeptics? Oh, the reporter to collect money for 12,000 people who voted in a they pooh-pooh everything and a deposit from an ATM. referendum last year against hav- they’re nasty to people and they ing fluoride added to their water. refuse to believe anything,’” said One of the astrologer’s cus- The Hamilton metropolitan area Viki Hyde. “And we say, there’s tomers had contacted the Hutt has a population of 212,000, so a difference between belief based News the previous week; Atami- it seems an even 200,000 are at on faith and belief based on evi- ra Te Paki said she had gone to the least not too worried about dence.” see Pandit Balraja Swami after fluoride. In which case, good reading an advertisement in the luck with that. Gold (whose founding of paper. She was only charged $10 was also as an initial consultation fee, but described in the article) said was then told it would take three he agreed: “The term can have prayers at $150 per prayer to Dad wants public to fund negative-sounding connotations cleanse her black magic. dodgy treatment attached to it. People tend to Sue Nicholson (!) warned peo- Another call has gone out for hear ‘skeptic’ and think, ‘Cyn- the public to fund treatment at a ics – you guys don’t believe in ple to be cautious and said she would like to test him. “I get a lot dodgy overseas clinic (NZ Her- anything – you’re just there to ald, 17 July). debunk knowledge,’ when it’s of Indian people come to me be- kind of the complete opposite.” cause they have been frightened Auckland father of two Luke by other Indian astrologers and I Elliott (33) wants $30,000 to say: ‘Don’t even bother’.” travel to the US for injections Astrologer didn’t see that The Hutt News has declined to of Etanercept, an anti-arthritis coming take any more advertising from drug, into his neck, in the hope Pandith Balraja Swami. it will restore his life after a A Petone man who claims to stroke nine years ago left him be a famous Indian astrologer unable to speak and with limited has been caught out in a sting movement. The treatment is of- by a local journalist (Hutt News, Hamilton fluoride battle over fered by Dr Edward Tobinick, a 19 August). The seemingly interminable registered medical practitioner who has been using Etanercept The reporter paid an initial $20 battle over the fluoridation of Hamilton’s water supply (see NZ in this off-label manner for about consultation fee for some career 14 years. There have been no advice from Pandith Balraja Skeptic 108-112) may finally be over (TVNZ, 3 September). proper trials of the treatment, Swami, who counted turned-over and just a week after the Herald sea shells, traced the lines on The Hamilton City Council article’s publication, Dr Tobinick his palm, and dropped a pinch says Safe Water Alternative NZ sued Dr Steven Novella (soon to or two of coloured powder on (SWANZ), a group established be seen at this year’s NZ Skep- his forehead. The reporter was to lodge a judicial review to test tics Conference), along with the told his job prospects would the council’s decision to resume Science-Based Medicine website greatly improve, there would fluoridation, has now withdrawn and SGU (Skeptics Guide to the be money, marriage and maybe from the review. Universe) Productions, for an even babies. A High Court hearing set for article he wrote about it on the But there was a catch. The 9 September was cancelled and SBM site in May 2013. reporter had too much bad black fluoride will remain in Hamil- Dr Tobinick’s claims and magic standing in his way, and it ton’s water supply. The council practice raise many red flags, would take the astrologer at least says as part of a settlement, it will says Dr Novella. “In my opinion three prayers totalling $450 to not seek costs from SWANZ. he is using legal thuggery in an heal him. Cash up front was re- attempt to intimidate me and si- quired. Sensing the reporter was SWANZ says it wants the council to provide unfluoridated lence my free speech because he hesitant he lowered the fee to finds its content inconvenient.” $300; his son offered to go with water stations for the almost

page 13 book review

From Page 11 the theories out there. Nothing depict everything from National on the Moon Landing Hoax, 9/11 Guard training centers to Amtrak self-aware computers. Further- as an Inside Job, Chemtrails, or repair stations to North Korean 11 more, if “an individual’s brain Barack Obama’s birth certificate, labor camps.” can connect with the superlumi- for example. It could also do Disclaimers at the end of al- nal field which is part of all other with better references for some most every chapter stating they living organisms, then it may be of the claims made, though in the could be totally wrong about all possible for that individual to they’ve just written, or that come from an awareness of they’re merely reporting the what has been termed the uni- ideas of others, don’t really versal brain.” Enough said. cut it either. Then there is Ormus, a Just occasionally there’s substance fed to the orphans a snippet that may give the in the Morcans’ novels to en- reader pause, and yes, there hance their mental and physi- are undoubtedly powerful in- cal functioning. It’s not clear dividuals and groups who use why this is a conspiracy, but their positions to further in- there are hundreds of websites crease their wealth and power promoting various formula- The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has roles which include at the expense of the rest of us. tions of this white powder providing caravans as temporary housing But if the conspiracy theorists which purportedly consists of following natural disasters. Conspiracy (among whose numbers the “monoatomic” forms of gold, theorists accuse the agency of running a Morcans definitely sit despite rhodium, iridium, copper, network of secret prisons. Photo: FEMA. their protestations) really want platinum and other metals. to convince us our destiny is These can supposedly become ruled by sinister secret overlords, superconducting under certain age of the search engine this is they’ll have to do a lot better conditions. Ingesting small less important than it was. than this. quantities is said to have effects More serious is the selective including “[s]lowing aging, quoting of some sources. For References 1. ww2today.com/the-gleiwitz-inci- assisting mental wellbeing, re- example when discussing al- dent-and-the-first-man-to-die-in-world- placing gray hair, improving eye- leged secret prisons set up to war-ii sight, re-growing missing teeth, detain anyone deemed a threat 2. militaryhistory.about.com/od/viet- namwar/p/gulfoftonkin.htm increasing body immunity and to national security the Morcans 3. abcnews.go.com/US/ correcting damaged DNA”. It’s cite RationalWiki as saying: story?id=92662 even reported to have caused a 4. www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/ cat to regrow its amputated tail. “There are several videos purport- jsource/Holocaust/Lebensborn.html ing to show footage of the camps, 5. news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/ 10 magazine/4443934.stm RationalWiki on the other as well as shots of ominous-look- 6. Collins, Anne 1988: In The Sleep hand describes it as “a fictitious ing fences and webpages listing Room: The Story of the CIA Brainwash- group of substances ... They defi- locations of over 800 camps, ing Experiments in Canada. Lester and Orpen Dennys Ltd, . nitely do not contain any gold allegedly all fully guarded and staffed full-time despite being 7. www.independent.co.uk/arts-en- or other precious metals, which tertainment/obituary-sidney-gottlieb- completely empty.” is in fact a good thing, because 1080920.html 8. www.nytimes.com/1989/02/20/us/ water-soluble forms of precious They omit the next sentence sirhan-felt-betrayed-by-kennedy.html metals are very toxic.” which reads: 9. www.rense.com/general45/hink. htm The greatest value of The “In addition to the implausibil- 10. rationalwiki.org/wiki/ORMUS Orphan Conspiracies may be ity of such a massive conspiracy 11. rationalwiki.org/wiki/FEMA_con- centration_camps as a reference for those wanting being kept totally silent, the evi- insight into the minds of conspir- dence is damaged by the fact that acy theorists, though it’s far from the videos and pictures actually a comprehensive treatment of all number 113 – spring 2014 are you sure?

Matthew Willey works in schools as an adviser for children with disabilities. He lives in Palmerston North with his family, who tolerate his enthusiasm for skepticism with a kindly forbearance. He is English, but losing the accent.

page 15 people Interview with the entity

This year the NZ Skeptics Annual General Meeting was held separately from the conference, on 7 September in Wellington. Among the business attended to was the election of a new chair-entity, Mark Honeychurch, replacing Gold who takes on the new role of Head Geek, responsible for technological support. The NZ Skeptic took the opportunity to ask Mark a few questions about himself, and his vision for skepticism in New Zealand.

CAN tell from your accent be here - with citizenship, three to tell me that the Earth was I you’re not from around Kiwi kids and a mortgage! very young and that God made here; can you tell us where everything. Despite the lack of you’re from? What, for that matter, brought knowledge I had in this area at you to skepticism? the time, I tried my hardest to I’m from the Isles of Scilly, argue with them about issues which is a small group of islands I guess I’ve always been en- they brought up such as Piltdown off the south-west coast of main- quiring and had a love for sci- Man and carbon dating. land England. They’re still part ence. Back in secondary school, of England, but it’s pretty Were you involved with remote there and the popu- the skeptical movement lation is only around 2000. back in England? After leaving the Scillies, at 16, I spent two years at I was more a member military college (Welbeck), of the geek community in followed by four years at England, although there’s Bristol University, where a lot of crossover between I was bored to death by a the two. I was skeptical Mechanical Engineering and enquiring about things degree and quit the army. as they crossed my path, Since then I’ve lived and but I didn’t actively go out worked in both Sydney and looking for nonsense. London, as well as travel- How long have you been ling a fair amount. part of the NZ Skeptics And what brought you to and what issues have you New Zealand? been involved with? My wife and I were on I joined the organised one of our long travelling skeptical movement about jaunts, and New Zealand three years ago, and was was our next stop after Mark Honeychurch, with Abigail, left, Amelia and introduced to the Skeptics Rebecca. spending just under a year in Society via the Wellington the Middle East (where we Skeptics in the Pub meet- when I was about 13 or 14, one visited countries including Iran, ings. From there I went on to of the local churches organised Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon and help organise last year’s Skeptics for some evangelical youth lead- Jordan). New Zealand was meant Conference, and it was during ers to come over to the islands to have been a year long stop on this time that Gold suggested I and talk to us at school about the way to South America, but should pay my dues and join the Jesus and Creation. I was very nine years later we seem to still Skeptics Society. At the AGM surprised that they were trying last year I put my hand up to number 113 – spring 2014 people join the committee, and found I hope to foster greater ties them. We use Google Hangouts myself taking over the video with other skeptically aligned or- for our monthly committee meet- librarian role. As a committee ganisations in New Zealand and ings, Google Drive for collabora- member I’ve taken stock of how overseas, such as the NZARH tively working online and Trello the society is run, and have tried and the . We for organising events such as the to suggest changes where they also have Skeptics Society com- conference. Beyond this, there seem sensible. mittee members who are central are other tools we are checking members of the Humanist Socie- out, such as Slack and Loomio, What issues do you see as be- ty, the Society for Science Based that may help us to communicate ing the primary focus for the Healthcare and Making Sense of better on a day-to-day basis, NZ Skeptics in the short to Fluoride, as well as the founder and Matt Beavan, our treasurer, medium term? of the NZ Skeptics in the Pub is currently evaluating online In the immediate term, I think movement. I hope that this will financial packages (Wave and there are several internal areas of help us to work together where Xero) to manage our accounts. the society that we need to focus possible on some of the more pernicious problems we face. What do you do when you’re on. Firstly, the website is starting not at work or being skepti- to look old hasn’t been loved for In the longer term, there are cal? quite a while now. Gold is doing many charlatans out there whose a fantastic job of preparing a claims need to be challenged. Apart from the time I spend new website, which we hope to is ideally with my family, I’m a member have up and running in the near placed, with Vicki and Michael of the Humanist Society council future. as media spokespeople, to be a and I’m helping them to adopt respected doubting voice when- online tools to improve manage- Related to the website, there ment of their website, newsletter, are several areas such as mem- ever woo makes the news. It was great to hear Stephen Price membership and other day-to- bership and the journal that we day tasks. I’m also one of the are hoping to make simpler and (Nicky Hager’s lawyer) talk at founders of CoderDojo (coder- more accessible by using both this year’s SkeptiCamp in Wel- lington, with his advice on how dojo.org.nz), which is a club the website and other online where we teach kids how to code tools available to us. best to avoid being sued for defa- mation. I’m now keen to see the for free. We only have one club With regards to looking out- society carefully pick the most up and running so far, in Porirua, wards from the society to what egregious examples in NZ of but we’re gaining momentum is happening in New Zealand, people and organisations making (we’re currently oversubscribed the committee has a few plans a fast buck off the unsuspecting by around 100 percent for each for how we can make a positive public, and mount organised session) and are hoping to ex- difference. campaigns against them. pand in the near future. Robert Woolf is looking into It’s obvious from your contri- What is your star sign? setting up a more formalised butions on the committee that I’m going to have to add a structure for the society to be you have a strong technical shameless plug here. On Skepti- able to offer skeptical speakers background; how do you see cism Today (skepticism.today), to local groups. the society making use of the which is a podcast I’m a member Lisa Taylor has joined the technological tools that are of, we have a competition where committee and has taken on an becoming available? we are given several astrological outreach role. As part of this You’re right about my back- predictions for the previous day. new role, we hope to make sure ground – I work in IT, and am Without being told which star we are sufficiently inclusive of currently employed as a hard- sign each horoscope is for, we members and non-members who ware engineer. I think there are have to guess which one we think aren’t bearded white males (who a lot of good tools that are freely best fits our day. Tune in to find I have nothing against, as I count available online, and the Soci- out my star sign! myself amongst their ranks). ety has already started adopting

page 17 science metrics Yet another science metric – the Kardashian Index

Siouxsie Wiles doesn’t find too much humour in a supposedly satirical paper.

WITTER Ummm, communicating As Prof Hall explains: exploded through social media is “gain- T “…a high K-index is a warning to recently after ing too high a value”? That’s the community that researcher X Neil Hall, a hilarious. In my experience, may have built their public pro- professor at the being active on social media is file on shaky foundations, while University of given no value by the majority of a very low K-index suggests that Liverpool who the establishment (ie silverbacks a scientist is being undervalued. studies the ge- like Prof Hall). And as to cita- Here, I propose that those people nomes of the tion indices being a “key metric whose K-index is greater than parasites that cause malaria and of scientific value”? Of value 5 can be considered ‘Science sleeping sickness, published a to other academics maybe. But Kardashians’…” (supposedly satirical) paper in science is valuable outside of Prof Hall did a “preliminary the journal Genome Biology. academia too, and citation indi- proof-of-concept study” using a Rather than read his paper, I rec- ces will rarely capture that. “randomish selection of 40 sci- ommend you read the annotated entists”. You can see how they version by Red Ink1. But first, To calculate a scientist’s scored in Figure 1 of his paper here’s the abstract: Kardashian Index (K-index), Prof Hall says we first need to (see next page). In the era of social media there calculate the number of Twitter Prof Hall goes on to con- are now many different ways that followers a particular scientist clude: a scientist can build their public should have, using the following profile; the publication of high- equation: I propose that all scientists cal- quality scientific papers being culate their own K-index on an just one. While social media is F= 43.3C0.32 (Eq 1) annual basis and include it in a valuable tool for outreach and their Twitter profile. Not only the sharing of ideas, there is a Where F is the number of does this help others decide how danger that this form of com- Twitter followers and C is the much weight they should give munication is gaining too high a number of citations. to someone’s 140 character wis- value and that we are losing sight dom, it can also be an incentive The K-index is then calculated of key metrics of scientific value, – if your K-index gets above 5, such as citation indices. To using a second equation then it’s time to get off Twitter help quantify this, I propose the and write those papers. ‘Kardashian Index’, a measure of K-index = F(a)/F(c) (Eq 2) discrepancy between a scientist’s Where F(a) is the actual Dr Michelle Dickinson, our 2 social media profile and publica- number of Twitter followers very own Nanogirl worked out tion record based on the direct the researcher has and F(c) is her K-index and scored 35, the comparison of numbers of cita- same as Prof Brian Cox. Both tions and Twitter followers. the number they “should” have given their citations. clearly need to get back to writ- ing their papers. number 113 – spring 2014 science metrics

There are so many things sense of humour. Ms Kardashian • From @Protohedgehog: wrong with Prof Hall’s piece is famous for being famous and the Sean Bean Index, measuring it’s hard to know where to be- not ashamed in the slightest. But the number of times you write a gin. Red Ink’s great annotated she is hardly alone. In fact, she great paper, only to have it killed version of his paper points out appears to be just one of a new by peer review; some of them1. Dr Kate Clancy breed of such celebrities. • From @IanMulvany: the has also written a nice post3 George Lucas Index, how often explaining why this bit of fun That Prof Hall chose to name a later paper totally invalidates isn’t actually funny and Dr Keith his index after a vacuous woman earlier work that you did; Bradnam has turned it on its head is a wonderful example of every- day sexism. Make no mistake, • From @OSIRISREx: the suggesting the Tesla index as a Viral Factor: how many times measure of scientific isolation4. while Prof Hall’s piece is sup- posedly satirical, it is a snide your research is misinterpreted into a factoid on a pop social media page; • From @quicklyround: the Ulysses Factor – papers cited by everybody but that nobody has actually read to the end; • From @LouWoodley: The Lindt Factor – the number of bars of chocolate needed to make the “minor revisions” requested; • From @Koalha: Sacrificial Efficiency: number of ac- cepted papers / burnt out grad student. Jason McDermott dis- Plotted: the Kardashian Index in practice. From Hall (2014). cusses the pros and cons of 6 What really makes my blood swipe at those with a passion for some of them on his blog . boil about Prof Hall’s new index communicating science using Which would get your vote? is that he named it after Kim a derogatory association with Dr Siouxsie Wiles is a research Kardashian, who according to a woman to do so. And he got scientist with a background Wikipedia is a reality TV star his paper published in a peer- in medical and environmental famous for being the daughter of reviewed journal where it will microbiology. She has made a career out of combining her twin OJ Simpson’s defense lawyer, a no doubt provide ammunition passions of bioluminescence and friend of wealthy socialite Paris to those who already belittle the microorganisms. This article is Hilton and star of a sex tape. work science communicators do, based on a post from her blog, She is now a successful busi- all with a citation to back their Infectious Thoughts. nesswoman with several clothes bigotry. Links lines and fragrances to her name The light at the end of the 1. www.redink.cc/wp-content/up- and an estimated fortune of $45 loads/2014/08/LMFTFY-Neil-Hall.pdf million. tunnel though was the #Alter- 2. www.nanogirl.net nativeScienceMetrics hashtag 3. kateclancy.com/jokes-that-dont- work Ms Kardashian’s most recent that was spawned on Twitter, 4. www.acgt.me/blog/2014/7/31/the- 5 venture is a smartphone game and storified by @mcdawg . tesla-index-a-measure-of-social-isola- in which players have to build a The proposed alternative sci- tion-for-scientists 5. storify.com/mcdawg/alternatesci- career in Hollywood, accumulat- ence metrics include gems like encemetrics ing wealth and fans. You have these: 6. jasonya.com/wp/alternatescienc- to give it to her. That lady has a emetrics-that-might-actually-work

page 19 forum

Climate science: why the uncertainty?

NOTE the raft of letters in in tonnes of CO2 (they are not the ACC deniers). He points out I the last magazine on anthro- same!). Some use ppm, some the changes the world needs to pogenic climate change (ACC). a percentage, and so on. This make are possible, but only just, While I, on the committee, am seems cunningly designed to and with consequential dramatic perfectly happy with the position confuse and confound everybody lifestyle changes, but it’s politi- statement and scientific consen- from newcomer to veteran. Just cal suicide for any government sus. (ie, Mankind is generating when things are starting to make to order this. large quantities of CO2, – this en- sense, the pundit quickly hops to traps solar radiation and causes a new unit, so it’s hard to follow The comment at the top of the temperature to increase) I don’t the line of reasoning. right hand column on page six understand the massive spread of NZ Skeptic 111 illustrates this and uncertantity of this increase: And obsfucation is a com- quite well: “... a social scientist 1 to 5 degrees. Hundreds of mon enough trick. For instance, stood up and said that we were all percent? In fact you can easily our WWF claims that if we all wrong because the real question find other scientists that say 0.7 had one car-less day each week, is how society actually responds to 8 degrees, and even a couple changed to CFL/LED lighting to major issues.There was a bit of more that claim these figures are and turned off un-needed ap- a stunned silence and the chair- half what they should be! They pliances, we would “have a big man changed the subject”. What all claim they have good data. impact”. Well, they throw about a party pooper! some very large numbers indeed Who to believe? Can’t climate Given that we generate about science please do a little better? (quite correct ones to be fair, but almost certainly designed to im- .087 percent of the world’s emis- Lets compare it with quantum press the statistically-challenged) sions, and that about half our electrodynamics (like ACC, not a but then omit to state their figures emissions come from farming, trivial science). Just a few years work out to about a one percent mainly dairy, we can only make after Chadwick discovered the saving. Well, to me, one percent a large impression (mainly on neutron, Paul Dirac predicted is not, and never will, be “big”. ourselves) by eliminating farm- the magnetic strength of the I do all those things, and much ing, especially dairy. So yes, electron to within 0.007 percent more, but still consider my con- let’s do it, that’ll show the rest of its modern value. Maxwell’s tribution minuscule compared of the world! But this is akin electromagnetic equations were with the ‘elephants in the corner to me worrying about the last developed in the 1860s after of the room’. two incandescent bulbs in my three years of hard work (sans house: do I need to spend $10- PC or ‘app’ – gasp!) and are as So why all the name-calling, $40 on CFL/LED replacements precise today as in 1865, and are angst and vitriol? Well, the un- for lights that spend about one- as precise to as many digits as certainty , the unit-hopping, and minute per week on? Then I one can afford to buy. Einstein the plethora of experts leading to drive about the city, and even predicted how tiny changes in confusion and doubt about their after midnight, the place is lit up gravity will alter time, and it error budgets hardly help. But like a Xmas tree. Worry about took 43 years for atomic clock I also believe a partial answer saving energy and our carbon technology to develop to prove lies in the cognitive dissonance hoof-print? Yeah right! The his theory within one percent. between the desire to talk about happy-talk and hand-waving is it, and the unpleasant shock of a little overwhelming. I have also seen, in this de- having to actually do something bate, a common enough trick by (more simply: lots of hui but lit- And the committee certainly pundits. It’s a special technique tle dui). I see one answer in the knows my views on this, but I called ‘unit-hopping’. Some will excellent book Heat by George find the most appalling hypoc- quote in tonnes of carbon, some Monbiot (No 1 arch-enemy of risy of all is that of the darling number 113 – spring 2014 forum of parts of the climate change However the writer appears Skeptics should support industry, one Al Gore, who used to have misunderstood why consensus some 220,000 kW/hours of Pascal’s Wager is fallacious. I am concerned at the dis- power in a year. I use around Pascal’s Wager is in fact a valid proportionate number of letters 6,300 pa. His excuse? That he argument (one whose conclu- denying Anthropogenic Climate works from home. Well, sun- sion necessarily follows from its Change in issue #112. shine, so do I! premises). If P is the probability of God existing then the expect- Climate Change Scientists Lastly, I agree that Gold’s ed benefit of believing in God is are the primary authority on the phrase re “the sack” is wrong. P×∞ + (1-P)×f = ∞ whereas the subject of climate change and Don’t get me wrong, O’ Briain is expected benefit of not believing the scientific consensus sup- an incredibly funny stand-up, and in God is P×(-∞) + (1-P)×g = ports humans causing the current a favourite of mine, and it does -∞ (where f and g represent the escalation of climate change on not offend me personally (after finite loss). Believing in God Earth. umpteen years in the military, obviously has the better pay-off I can be as abrasive and foul- and given the description of the Not one of your recent corre- mouthed as any drill-sergeant) problem this is the correct result. spondents was a climate change but it’s just plain unnecessary, The reason Pascal’s Wager is fal- scientist and any arguments in my opinion. lacious is because it is not sound made were based on the views of a tiny minority of the scientific Anyway enough from me, I’m (the premises aren’t true). The community. off to rustle some cows and then options are not ‘believe in God’ the abbatoir! or ‘not believe in God’ but rather A Skeptic would take into ac- ‘believe in X’ where X is no-god count this disparity, and agree Barry Lennox or any of a number of gods. Addi- with the current scientific con- Rangiora tionally in many cases the belief sensus, until the experts deter- in one god precludes the belief in mine otherwise. others so it is no longer a binary ‘Anti-catastrophic principle’ choice. With climate change on There are no Climate Change is not Pascal’s wager the other hand the situation is Skeptics, only deniers of the cur- completely characterised by it rent scientific consensus. In the Winter 2014 NZ Skeptic either happening or not and so Hans Laven states that engaging Matt Beavan the ‘Anti-catastrophic principle’ in actions to combat climate Wairarapa in this case is not fallacious. change now, despite uncertain- ties, because of the expected Dr Josh Voorkamp outcome is equivalent to Pascal’s Dunedin Wager and thus fallacious. from the vaults Group wants cash to fight ritual abuse Matt Conway suppression order protects the boy’s ... But New Zealand Skeptics identity. We’ll call her Alison. spokesman Dr Denis Dutton, a A new group set up to counter vocal critic of ritual abuse believers, ritual abuse and satanic worship Alison defines ritual abuse as slammed ERA’s bid for public has applied for almost $40,000 from organised physical, sexual and money. the Government and the Lottery psychological assaults of child Grants Board to set up an office and and adult victims, characterised by I’m sure the Lottery Grants Board send members to a conference in torture and mind control. would not be so foolish as to support the United States. something as whacky as ritual She alleges her son, then aged abuse theories. If they do, they can End Ritual Abuse (ERA) was between 3 and 5, was splattered in expect UFO abductees to be next started by a Christchurch woman blood and buried alive in a coffin in the queue for money.” ... whose son was found to have been during his time at the Christchurch molested by creche worker Peter Civic Childcare Centre. – From Sunday Star-Times, 15 Ellis. She cannot be named as a October 1994. Reprinted in NZ Skeptic 33

page 21 bioblog Survival in a bacterial world

The discovery of how the stomach bacterium Helicobacter pylori was found to be responsible for gastric ulcers is a classic tale of revolution in scientific understanding. But the full story is far more complex – and only part of an emerging appreciation of the role played by our microbial fellow- travellers. Alison Campbell explains.

N their first- 1945 Nobel Prize lecture, Alex- Incidentally, while all this may Iyear microbi- ander Fleming commented on sound uncomfortably germy, ology lectures. the possibility that overuse of there’s good evidence that the our students penicillin could see the develop- gut microflora are essential for hear about Heli- ment of resistant bacteria. Un- survival. Lab animals reared in cobacter pylori, fortunately, at the time this warn- absolutely germ-free conditions, the bacterium ing went unheeded – if indeed it and whose guts never develop associated with was really heard – for example, a microbial flora, fail to thrive. the development of gastric ul- penicillin was available as an What’s more, Snyder Sachs cers. This discovery eventually over-the-counter drug in the US comments that the combined ac- saw Barry Marshall and Robin for almost a decade after its in- ction of several species of intes- Warren receive the 2005 Nobel troduction in the 1950s, which tinal bacteria “liberate as much Prize for Physiology or Medi- would undoubtedly have con- as 30 percent of the calories a cine. The trouble is, I suspect that tributed to the development of person absorbs from food, es- this is all that they hear about a resistant strains of microbes.) pecially from high carbohydrate story that is considerably more meals.” complex. Then, after an introduction to the “war on germs” and scien- Reading on – and it was re- The story of H. pylori is just tists’ search for the ‘magic bul- ally hard to put this book down! one part of Jessica Snyder Sach’s lets’ that would (it was hoped) al- – you’ll hear about the hygiene highly readable and thoroughly low us to vanquish them forever, hypothesis, which suggests that referenced book, Good Germs, it’s on to “life on man”. Wherein many of the inflammatory dis- Bad Germs, which introduces the I learned heaps, including the eases that plague us today are reader to the complexities of the thought-provoking suggestion an unforeseen result of lives that human microbiome: the intricate that there may be some adap- are too clean. Along with this is microbial ecosystems found on tive significance to the fact that the ‘dirt vaccine’: the idea that and within the human body. babies usually exit the vagina vaccination with a mycoplasma with their heads face backwards, may help to redirect the overzeal- The book begins with the har- towards the mother’s anus. For ous immune response underlying rowing tale of a young man’s babies guts are colonised by bac- many allergies. Then it’s on to a death from a rampant MRSA teria very soon after birth – and deeper look at the development infection, and of a child living they may receive an inoculum of antibiotic resistance and the with multiple life-threatening of faecal matter on the way out, rise of the superbugs, which has allergies – two tales linked by the to join the lactobacilli from the been exacerbated by the wide- unforeseen effects of our overuse vagina itself and bifidobacteria spread use of antibiotics in farm of antibiotics and our fixation on from breast milk. animals. (Encouragingly, Snyder hygiene. (Actually, the former Sachs notes that banning this use, was not entirely unseen: in his number 113 – spring 2014 Want to join NZ Skeptics or renew your membership? An on-line subscription/renewal form (internet banking and credit card options) is available on the New Zealand Skeptics website (www.skeptics.org.nz) – click on ‘Join us’. For internet banking, use the details below; it is essential that all references are completed. First ref (particulars): Your Surname Second ref (code): First Name Third ref (if available): Membership type ANZ Bank a/c name: New Zealand Skeptics a/c number: 11-7810-0185045-11 If paying by post, fill in the form below, tick box for type of membership and post to: The Treasurer, NZ Skeptics Inc., PO Box 30501, Lower Hutt 5040. Membership is for a calendar year. Cheques to be made payable to “New Zealand Skeptics”. Receipts issued on request only. ------o New membership o Renewal o Waged Individual: $40.00 o Unwaged Individual/Student: $20.00 o Household: $60 o Overseas Individual: $50.00 (Note: payments must be in NZ Dollars. Paying by credit card is an easy way to get NZ Dollars to us – see payment instructions above) Name: ______Address: ______Email: ______

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bioblog as in the Netherlands, can lead to the effects of acid reflux and the I like the full, more complex a reduction in ‘superbug’ preva- development of oesophageal story; it’s so much more satisfy- lence.) And finally, we look at cancer. But then, there are those ing than the ‘Helicobacter = bad’ our options for the future, and gastric ulcers – which appar- version, and it’s a much better whether we can find a way to live ently didn’t really become an reflection of the dynamic rela- in balance with our burgeoning issue until the 1830s, when this tionship between humans and the microbial ecosystems. was mainly a disease of the up- microbes that call us home. per classes, possibly linked to a Alison Campbell is a lecturer in And H. pylori? It turns out decline in colonisation related to that this particular bacterium has the Biological Sciences Department improved sanitation and the use at Waikato University. She writes been with us for at least 60,000 of early antibiotic products. And Bioblog as a way of encouraging years, something that’s been gastric ulcers remain virtually critical thinking, looking at scien- used to track human migration unknown in undeveloped regions tific papers that are relevant to the Level 3 curriculum and Scholar- patterns that began when Homo of the world such as Africa, sapiens first left Africa. Helico - ship, and fielding questions from where most people become colo- readers. bacter pylori colonises the stom- nised in infancy. It may be that ach in the first few months of delaying or disrupting H. pylori life, before gastric acid secretion colonisation with water sanita- Reference really ramps up, and can actually Good Germs, Bad Germs: health tion or antibiotics has somehow and survival in a bacterial world. Jes- affect that acid secretion, lower- altered the immunological ‘truce’ sica Snyder Sachs (2008). Hill & Wang. ing the pH enough that Helico- that this microbe forged with our ISBN (e-book): 0809016427 bacter can survive but most other immune systems over thousands, species are killed. There is a plus possibly millions, of years. to this: the lowered pH reduces

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NZ Skeptics Conference: nearly here! Friday December 5th to Sunday December 7th, Auckland University Special Guests: the cast of the Skeptics Guide to the Universe and US skeptical musician George Hrab. Plus a great line-up of local speakers on a range of skeptical and science-related topics, as well as the Saturday night buffet dinner and entertainment.

See conference.skeptics.org.nz for details, or visit the Facebook page: www.facebook.com/ nzskepticsconf2014

NZ Skeptics (Inc.) Chair-entity: Mark Honeychurch (Wellington), [email protected] Secretary: Craig Shearer (Auckland), [email protected] Treasurer: Matt Beavan (Wairarapa), [email protected] Committee: Daniel Ryan (Wellington) Matt Dee (Wellington) Robert Woolf (Auckland) Keith Garratt (Rotorua) Barry Lennox (Rangiora) Stephen Galbraith (Auckland)

Media Contact: Vicki Hyde, [email protected]; Michael Edmonds, [email protected] NZ Skeptic Editor: David Riddell, [email protected] Outreach Officer:Lisa Taylor, [email protected] Head Geek: Gold (Wellington)