. . SOCIETY

Vol 38, No 1. March 2018

The Flat, Hollow & Doomed

+Skeptics & Religion, Detective, MTHFR

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_Cover_Mar18.indd 1 8/03/2018 11:14 pm The Skeptic March 18

Skeptical Groups in NSW VIC Inc – Eran Segev Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc – Chris Guest www.skeptics.com.au GPO Box 5166, VIC 3001 PO Box 20, Beecroft, NSW 2119 Tel: 1 800 666 996 [email protected] Tel: 02 8094 1894; Mob: 0432 713 195; Fax: (02) 8088 4735 [email protected] Skeptics’ Café – Third Monday of every month, with guest speaker. Clyde Hotel, cnr Elgin and Cardigan Sts, Carlton. Meal – 6pm first Thursday of each from 6pm, speaker at 8pm sharp.($4 contribution). More details month at the Occidental Hotel, York Street in the city, near on our web site www.skeptics.com.au/vic Wynyard Park (meeting second floor) Dinner meetings are held on a regular basis. Ballarat Skeptics in the Pub http://facebook.com/groups/3978112230309544 Hunter Skeptics – John Turner Tel: (02) 4959 6286 [email protected] Geelong Skeptics Society Occasional social meetings at the Cricketers Arms Hotel, Cooks Contact: James Rolton [email protected] Hill. Those on the contact list will be sent details in advance. Online group: See for details. Currently meeting at 12.30 on third Sunday of each odd-numbered Hosting the Annual Surf Coast Summer Skepticamp (February) month. Gippsland Skeptics in the Pub Blue Mountains Skeptics Interested parties contact Mark Guerin or Martin Christian Power See Facebook for details. via the Gippsland Skeptics page: https://www.facebook.com/gr oups/291929110900396/?ref=bookmarks Coffs Coast Skeptics & Freethinkers See Facebook for details. Melbourne Eastern Hills Skeptics in the Pub Contact: Andrew Rawlings [email protected] Tel: 0438 043 050 ACT hyyp://groupspaces.com/meh-sitp Canberra Skeptics – Lauren Kelly https://www.facebook.com/pages/Melbourne-Eastern-Hills PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 www.canberraskeptics.org.au Tel: 0410 382 306 Skeptics-in-the-Pub/19241290737690 [email protected] (general inquiries), Meets second Monday of each month at The Knox Club, [email protected] (Canberra Skeptics in the Pub). Wantirna South. A free monthly talk, open to the public - check website for details Skeptics in the Pub gather at 1pm on the third Sunday of each Melbourne Skeptics in the Pub month at King O’Malleys Pub in Civic. For up-to-date details: See Facebook for details. www.meetup.com/ SocialSkepticsCanberra/ Meets on the fourth Monday of every month from 6 pm at the Mt View Hotel in Richmond.

Mordi Skeptics in the Pub http://www.meetup.com/Mordi-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/ Meets at 7.30pm on the first Tuesday of each month at the Mordialloc Sporting Club. ($4 to cover website costs)

For details on Skeptical groups in other states and territories, see inside back cover Volume 38 • No1 March 18 Contents REPORTS Global skeptic action 7 Tim Mendham

Religion in the USA 8 Martin Bridgstock TGA Amendments 9 8 10 Tim Mendham

Gold Coast Skeptics 10 Mandy-Lee Noble 7

FEATURES How to Tell It’s Not Flat 16 26 Moriel Schottlender

Flat Earth Forum 20 Richard Saunders The 22 22 Brian Dunning

The Hole in the Pole 26 Tim Mendham 16 The Doomsdayers 34 34 Bob Carroll

ARTICLES 48 The MTHFR Gene 40 44 Mandy-Lee Noble

Skeptics & Religion 44 Barry Williams The Blind Seer 48 40 Richard Saunders

REGULARS Editorial 4 Around the Traps 5 51 Them! 14 Puzzles page 15 Logical place 42 Book review 51 What goes around 52 Forum 54 Letters 61 Quotable Quotes 62 52 EDITORIAL From the Editor

Taking a stand he Skeptical scene has changed early part of this decade, there were two Tdramatically over the lifespan of parallel debates about climate change, Australian Skeptics. one scientific and the other economic/ In 1981, when the organisation political. Australian Skeptics Inc made was first launched, its concerns were a statement, not an endorsement of any ISSN 0726-9897 clairvoyants, , water particular argument or point of view Quarterly Journal of divining, UFOs, yowies, and such like. but rather a fairly non-controversial Australian Skeptics Inc While these were issues of concern statement, that any discussion of the (ABN 90 613 095 379) from a consumer rip-off and a ‘scientific nature of climate change and climate Editor truth’ perspective, by and large they science should be based on science. Tim Mendham were not front and centre on the issues Now we are faced with another major affecting the population of the . issue. And this time it doesn’t involve Editorial Board The Skeptics were the people that the taking the scientific point of view; it is Steve Roberts media got on to as an afterthought (if about ethics. Eran Segev we were thought of at all) to put their In the last 12 months, sexual Martin Hadley wowserish point of view on those weird harassment by celebrities has become Barry Williams wonderful and wacky crystal ball gazers. front page fodder for the media. Design Services Over the next decade, some leading Actually, sexual harassment of all sorts Nova Consulting P/L lights of the Australian skeptical scene has been an issue for much longer, and helped turn that image and reputation celebrities have been involved in many All correspondence to: around. Lawyer Mark Plummer pushed cases. But recently it must be admitted Australian Skeptics Inc the Skeptics into a stronger consumer there has been a groundswell, and PO Box 20 protection profile. And as the obituary many have been drawn into the debate, Beecroft NSW 2119 in this issue says, Barry Williams was whether directly involved or not. Australia instrumental in the transition of the So it is with the Skeptical community. Contact details Skeptics’ image from amusing novelty Since the issue was raised several years Tel: +61 (0)2 8094 1894 to serious players and activists. ago of sexual harassment at Skeptical Mob: +61 (0)432 713 195 At the time, one of the big issues events, suddenly (inevitably?) we find Fax: +61 (0)2 8088 4735 being pressed upon Skeptics was to Skeptical celebrities named. What were debunk religion per se. And despite previously whispers and rumours have [email protected] most Skeptics probably having personal become news, and the current situation www.skeptics.com.au sympathies for an atheist viewpoint, re Prof Lawrence Krauss has occupied the Skeptics, headed by Barry, resisted many skeptics around the world. The Skeptic is published four times this, reminding people of the scientific Thus the Australian Skeptical per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. rather than humanistic underpinnings community has been involved in a non- Views and opinions expressed in articles of the organisation. His explanation scientific issue and frankly has to take and letters in The Skeptic are those of of this stance, as presented in a debate a stand, not least because one incident the authors, and are not necessarily at the 1990 Skeptics convention, is apparently took place at an Australian those of Australian Skeptics Inc. reprinted in this issue. Skeptics event. Articles may be reprinted with But as an organisation becomes Which is why ASI has issued the permission and with due acknowledge- more serious and activist, it is pushed statement published in this issue. ment to The Skeptic. – or pushes itself – into the frontline It is the price of activism. It is not All effort is made to ensure correct of debate on some broader issues. done lightly. But, in this case at least, it acknowledgement of all contributions. No longer the amusing novelty, needs to be done. . We are happy to update credit when so the Skeptics are now called upon informed. to comment on issues of major - Tim Mendham, editor importance to 21st century Australians Editorial submission deadline (and don’t forget that almost half of our About the cover:We would like tothank for the next issue: existence has been in the 21st century.) Si Clark for permission to use his illustra- May 31, 2018 For instance, climate change. In the tion. See more at www.si-clark.co.uk 4 NEWS The Skeptic March 18 Around the traps ... CAM practitioners really don’t need

AUSTRALIA: A draft industry skills Education and forecast for the complementary health Training, though industry puts scientific literacy near the not necessarily in bottom of a list of “key generic skills – the order presented. ranked in order of importance”. Ranked from most “, mathematics and scientific important to least, they are: The 7th skillset, which includes literacy” ranks 11 out of 12, meaning that 1. Communication/collaboration/social “thinking critically”, covers “Ability finance and entrepreneurship (including intelligence to adapt products to rapidly shifting the ability to sell ideas and products) are 2. Learning agility/information literacy/ consumer tastes and trends. Ability more important. Only “environmental intellectual autonomy to determine the deeper meaning or and sustainability” skills rate lower than an 3. Customer service/marketing significance of what is being expressed appreciation and knowledge of science. 4. Financial via technology. Ability to understand The complementary medicine 5. Entrepreneurial how things that are regarded as systems disciplines covered in the forecast are: 6. Language, literacy and numeracy influence one another within a complete aromatherapy; Ayurveda; kinesiology; 7. Design mindset/thinking critically/ entity, or larger system. Ability to think massage and remedial massage therapy; system thinking/problem solving holistically.” ; shiatsu; and traditional 8. Technology and application Australian Skeptics Inc wrote to Chinese medicine remedial massage. 9. Data analysis SkillsIQ, decrying their placement of The list is part of a skills forecast 10. Managerial/leadership scientific literacy, saying that: “Surely document prepared by SkillsIQ, “a 11. Science, technology, engineering your ranking should reflect a primary not-for-profit, independent skills service and maths (sciences, mathematics skill such as ‘know what you’re talking organisation supporting a range of and scientific literacy) about’ being more important than the industry reference committees (IRCs) to 12. Environmental/sustainability profit motive.” . undertake training product development that ensures skills meet future industry needs”. SkillsIQ receives some financial support from the Commonwealth ASI statement on sexual harassment government. The 17 IRCs that SkillsIQ works at Skeptics events with are responsible for overseeing the development and review of training AUSTRALIA: Recent coverage in She was encouraged to report this to the packages serving the skills needs of mainstream and of claims of organisers and lodge a formal complaint, almost 50 per cent of the Australian sexual harassment at Skeptical events has but chose not to take it further in any way. workforce. highlighted a serious consideration for Out of respect for her wishes, no further The complementary health skills Skeptical groups around Australia and the action was taken. document is not sure how many world. ASI and the various skeptical groups businesses there are in the overall In this country, most Skeptics groups around Australia take the issue of complementary medicine sector – have formulated codes of conduct, harassment (sexual or otherwise) very depending on the source there is primarily for events such as convention seriously. We have behaviour policies in somewhere between 19,500 to nearly and social meetings. place and robust processes that ensure that 30,000. Those numbers include other With regard to the current highly- any complaint is dealt with immediately services not covered by the skills forecast, publicised claims re Prof Lawrence and appropriately. We also do not invite but are still classified as complementary Krauss, Australian Skeptics Inc (ASI) speakers whose behaviour we suspect could or “allied” services. Most of these notes that during the 2016 Australian cause attendees or other speakers to feel businesses are single-person operations. Skeptics National convention, a female uncomfortable, unwelcome, or threatened. The 12 generic skills required by attendee informally told several other In that context, and based on what we CAM operators were supplied by attendees that she was the subject of know, ASI will not be inviting Prof Krauss the Commonwealth Department of unwelcome behaviour of a sexual nature. to any events in the foreseeable future. . 5 23 NEWS

2018 Skeptics Convention

AUSTRALIA: The record for any skeptical group. 2018 Australian Skeptics The convention will be held at the National Convention Chatswood Concourse in the northern will be held in Sydney on suburbs of Sydney – this is the same the weekend of October venue as the 2014 Convention. 13-14, with a social event One highlight for parents is that on the preceding Friday, we are planning to include a crèche October 12. service. This will be the 34th More information will be released consecutive convention, over the coming weeks, and tickets which we believe is a should go on sale soon. .

Anti-vaxxers establish Science survey: we like science own social services USA: A recent international survey Canadian respondents believed that AUSTRALIA: A network of anti- undertaken for 3M shows that would be the case, compared with 40 vaccination families in Queensland people are intrigued by the idea per cent of Chinese, 41 per cent of are creating their own social services, of science: “They recognise and Indians and a whopping 55 per cent of including childcare and schooling, in appreciate how science impacts Saudi Arabian respondents. . a bid to counter the No Jab No Play the world on a global scale, and 90 immunisation policy. percent say that when they hear In Queensland, childcare providers the word ‘science’ they feel hopeful can cancel or refuse the enrolment of a versus discouraged (10 percent). child who is not vaccinated. But the company warns that Sunshine Coast “When you dig a little deeper, a “vaccine refuser” more complex story emerges: 38 and leader of the percent say their lives would not Natural Immunity be much different if science didn’t Community, Allona exist, and about a third fall into the Lahn (pictured), science skeptics camp.” said her anti-vaccine The survey asked 14,000 people network had grown from 14 countries (not Australia) to to 800 members and find out their views on the role of was becoming stronger science in their lives. since the regulations Overall, the views were very were introduced. positive, even to the extent that “We use health scientists have a slight edge over pop SKEPTICS practitioners within the anti-vaccine culture icons as preferred dinner networks around Australia and ‘anti- guests (except if you’re in the UK, NEWSLETTER vaccination-friendly’ doctors in the where Helen Mirren has it over Australian Skeptics publishes community.” Brian Cox). a fortnightly newsletter, with Lahn has made her position clear on Respondents were asked what other conspiracy topics, posting on her they thought science would achieve information on news, events Facebook page: “It is only a matter of in their lifetmes. Most Americans and items of interest. time before we are micro-chipped, have believe that science will put a robot To subscribe, go to facial recognition and the Government in every workplace (62 per cent) and www.skeptics.com.au have access to your whole life ... it cure cancer (55 percent). Of special and enter your details at is happening as we speak. The mass interest to skeptics is the response the bottom of the page – drugging of the people from womb to to science proving . Only just name and email. tomb is on the agenda.” . 14-17 per cent of US, UK and 6 REPORT Activism The Skeptic March 18 Global Action by Skeptics Tim Mendham reports on an increasing trend for Skeptics around the world to work together on mutual goals.

hen former naturopath and and preserve the scientific to the story. Wnoted pro-science campaigner enterprise”. • 2010 - The first global anti- Britt Hermes was taken to court for 10:23 “mass suicide defamation, the action sparked a INTERNATIONAL ACTION stunt” organised by Merseyside response by Skeptics from around the This recent campaign is part of a Skeptics (following a similar world. trend over the last decade or more for event by the Belgian skeptical A fundraising campaign was instigated cross-border skeptical action. Fired by organisation SKEPP in 2004). by Australian Skeptics to cover the social media, disparate groups have Commitments of participation A$80k that her lawyer advised would been able to coordinate programs that came from 70 cities in 30 countries likely be required. In collaboration with a raise the profile of skeptics globally, and (including Paul Willis performing the number of overseas skeptical groups, the emphasise the power of joint action: stunt in Antarctica in 2011). campaign was launched on January 14 • 2008 - and The • 2011 - Australian Skeptics launch and within only nine days the target had Guardian newspaper taken to a fund-raising drive to help public been reached with contributions coming court by the British health advocate Dr cover in from more than 2000 donors. Association over a column written legal costs arising from action by The case concerned US-based by Singh. Supporters of Singh made ‘weight-loss’ company SensaSlim. naturopath ‘Dr’ Colleen Huber who formal complaints of false advertising $13,000 was raised within 24 hours, claimed that Hermes had defamed her against more than 500 individual with the final amount being $42,000. in statements made on Hermes’ blog, chiropractors within one 24-hour Most of these funds were raised within Naturopathic Diaries – Confessions of a period, with one national chiropractic Australia, but the case was a precursor Naturopathic Doctor. Hermes was critical organisation ordering its members to for the current Hermes campaign. of the medical and fundraising practices take down their websites. Skeptical • 2014 - Dr Steve Novella and others of the Naturopathic Cancer Society and groups around the world pledged sued by Dr Edward Tobinick the Nature Works Best Cancer Clinic - moral and financial support. In concerning an article Novella Huber is associated with both. 2010, the BCA officially withdrew its wrote that was critical of Tobinick’s Hermes is an American former lawsuit, ending the case. practice. Novella, via the Skeptics naturopath who, over the last few • 2009 - UK doctor and author Ben Guide to the , ran a fund- years, has spent much time and effort Goldacre faced with legal action raising campaign to cover his legal campaigning against naturopathic claiming copyright infringement from costs, and despite the total being practices. She is currently a student in LBC (formerly London Broadcasting “many times the amount of donations Germany, where the defamation action Company) and Global Radio for … it was still critical to keeping our was lodged. posting an audio clip of radio defence going”. While the prime focus of the personality Jeni Barnett’s negative In the Hermes campaign, should campaign is to ensure that Hermes will “44 minute tirade against the MMR more funds be raised than required to not be out of pocket from what might be vaccine”. Goldacre removed the audio, cover her costs, they will be held for considerable legal costs, there is a broader but transcripts were made widely a period to ensure the legal risk has message that goes beyond Hermes’ available by others, and the issue was passed, after which they will be put into situation. As she herself said in a recent covered in The Times and raised in the a Skeptics legal defence fund, which is message to donors, “the international UK Parliament. The audio was posted currently under discussion but will most skeptic and science community stands on a wide number of websites around likely be managed by a committee drawn united to protect the freedom to criticise the world, with over 120 blogs linking from various international groups. . 7 REPORT Religion + Alt Med Millennials Move Away Martin Bridgstock considers an important change in attitude towards religion in the US, which could eventually affect the world.

parents. In particular, millennials who the parents. The internet might play a have been brought up in actively Christian part, introducing young people to a mass, households, upon achieving adulthood, distinctly secular, ‘youth culture’. Right- break away from organised religion. wing Americans have accused ‘liberal Surveys indicate that nearly 60% of these professors’ of spreading among young adults have left their churches, and students6. The evidence suggests this does about 43% have dropped out completely3. not happen7. Before we go into details, a couple Over decades, we might find that or many years, researchers into of qualifications. First, most of these mass support for fundamentalist fantasies Freligion have been interested in the millennial breakaways do not embrace will decline. There will always be some “secularisation thesis”. This is the theory atheism or agnosticism. Usually, their audience for the Biblical claims, but we that as nations develop and become more outlook continues to resemble that of their can expect it to become less widespread. prosperous, the proportion of religious parents, but they reject organised religion. We might also find that American support people declines. Neat little graphs have Second, as Arthur C. Clarke pointed out, for Israel could become less unconditional. been drawn showing the process. At the a trend is not a law4. Trends can always Fundamentalists strongly support Israel, lower right – with high incomes and low stop, or even reverse. Still, this enormous believing that its existence is a harbinger religious participation – are nations like movement suggests that, over time, the of the end of the world and the coming of Sweden and Denmark. In those countries, religious composition of the United Jesus. less than half the population is religiously States will change dramatically, probably It’s going to be an interesting future! . active1. At upper left are poor, fanatically resembling other developed countries. religious countries. This change is not completely REFERENCES There is one huge exception to this unprecedented. There is evidence that 1. David Voas and Mark Chaves, “Is the secularisation idea, the United States. each generation of Americans, going back United States a Counterexample to the Although highly developed and rich, a 60 years, has been less religious than its Secularization Thesis?” American Journal of huge majority of Americans are actively predecessor. This current change is not so Sociology 121, 5, 2016: 1517–56 religious. According to opinion polls, over much different from the others, just much 2. Pew Research Centre. Religion Among the three-quarters of Americans belong to larger. So, if the overall trend continues, Millennials. Washington DC. “Pew Forum on churches, and atheists are regarded with what can we expect in future? Religion & Public Life”. February 2010. profound distrust. I have already seen some reports of 3. Barna Group. Three Spiritual Journeys of The implications of this have been small churches in remote areas of the Millennials. https://tinyurl.com/ybktpatr. enormous. Something over half of US beginning to struggle with aging 4. Arthur C. Clarke. Profiles of the Future. Americans believe that the Earth was congregations. Some are closing, some 1962. created in six days, as described in the are merging. In addition, nonbelievers 5. Search for Atheist Experience on YouTube. Bible. The religious right has a huge are becoming more visible. For example, 6. Sal Gentile and Win Rosenfeld. block of votes, which can radically affect the Atheist Community of Austin has Presidentiality: Are colleges encouraging elections across the nation. a regular television program where they atheism? Public Broadcasting Service. The astonishing news is that this is argue with believers5. https://tinyurl.com/7z9n8zf. changing. A study by the Pew Research Why is this happening? The short 7. For example, Jeremy E. Uecker, Mark D. Centre2 shows that the Millennial answer is that we do not know for certain. Regnerus and Margaret L. Vaaler. Losing Generation – those who came of age in One explanation is that each generation My Religion: The Social Sources of Religious the twenty-first century – are departing indoctrinates its children a little less, and Decline in Early Adulthood, Social Forces, 85, from the religious behaviour of their the children take matters further than 4. 2007: 1667-1692. 8 The Skeptic March 18 TGA’s Incredible Indications Tim Mendham is concerned about his disinhibited water disappearing through the gate of vitality.

he Therapeutic Goods had already been published or broadcast. up with ‘traditional indications’? TAdministration (TGA) 2017 Another aspect of concern is that “This will confuse the public – they’ll Measures #1 Bill – amendments to the TGA will take over the advertising have no idea that there is no scientific the TGA act – was passed through complaints system previously managed evidence whatsoever.” the Federal Senate recently despite through the Complaints Resolution The revised list of permitted much criticism on a range of aspects, Panel. indications for so-called ‘traditional’ not least being a set of indications for “There were problems with the old products includes such unsupported complementary medicine treatments system and there is a need for a new claims as “Harmonise middle burner that reflect ludicrous pseudoscience. code, but you can’t trust the TGA to (spleen and stomach)”, “Unblock/ Prof Ken Harvey, a “friend” as well as manage it properly,” Harvey said. open/relax meridians”, “Soothe/descend a vocal critic of the TGA, told Dr Paulie The TGA says it will be able to clear the flow of stomach ”, “Replenish Stehlik of the Skeptic Zone, that the bad advertisements in 10 days, but this essence”, “Tonify/nourish/strengthen/ concept of the indications was good “but does not allow for the supplier’s right of replenish gate of vitality”, “Balance the list was crazy”. response or lengthy legal processes, “The Yin and Yang”; and the wonderfully The Amendment was put through ACCC, which does have good powers, vague “Release exterior [fluid]”, and the Senate over the Christmas/New Year can take up to a year [to deal with “Disinhibit water”. break, leaving little time for consultation infringements].” The indications were widely ridiculed, on the measures covered. In , at a but some CAM proponents came to public meeting held in Canberra in INDICATIONS their defence. Dr Carolyn Ee said in a January to discuss the Bill, some said that The idea of a pre-approved list of stream that “the funny sounding there had been nothing more than token indications was quite a good one, Harvey names represent a different consultation, if any at all. said. But when the TGA asked industry of understanding health – concepts and Harvey admitted that some parts of to come up with a list they received functional systems, not actual organs”. the Bill were welcome, such as earlier hundreds in response. “Eighty-four per And not actual science, either. access to promising new medicines, and cent were for ‘traditional indications’ that Ee has a PhD in recognition of overseas regulatory bodies’ don’t need a scientific base. The TGA from Melbourne University, and is an findings. seemed to put traditional indications executive committee member of NICM, for alt med practices on the same basis which won the Skeptics’ Bent Spoon ADVERTISING as scientific information which has gone award last year. However, the amendments covering through the hierarchy of claim and A submission to the Senate inquiry advertising were not so benign. The controlled trials and meta-analyses.” by Australian Skeptics Inc suggested Bill removes the need to pre-approve The biggest number of indications that “It would seem that the numerous advertising on mainstream media. for traditional products was related to industry-submitted and TGA-endorsed The system to check ads was created Chinese medicine. traditional indications give increased at a time before the internet and pay “This will allow a flood of traditional benefit to the purveyors of non-scientific TV, Harvey said, but it still picked products pushing pseudoscience and products while decreasing the protection up a lot of misleading advertisements. encouraging sponsors of supplements to of consumers.” The new system will rely on trust, with evade the need for scientific proof. And The amendments will come into force advertisements being assessed after they why should they, when they can come on July 1. . 9 REPORT Skeptical Groups

Gold Coast 2.0 Mandy-Lee Noble reports on how skeptics on the Gold Coast are adding weight to their profile.

n the third Monday in January multifaceted approach that has and Skinny is the new Skinny”, Ofour skeptics from Brisbane included monthly guest speakers, questioned whether the transition took a drive down the motorway an increased online presence, from #thinspo (social media posts to check-out the newly regenerated co-ordinated activism, and an that inspire thinness) to #fitspo Gold Coast Skeptics. We arrived up-coming free public event in (social media posts that inspire at the Anglers Arms which I had collaboration with the Brisbane fitness) represents an actual imagined purely from the name to . improvement in women’s physical and be a rough and ready local pub but mental health or just a heightening of instead we were met with a polished A ‘THIN’ PRESENTATION the bar for body satisfaction. venue offering a bistro menu and an For January’s meeting the speaker As expected Stansfield’s intimate conference space to listen to was recent Griffith University presentation led to a robust debate. this month’s guest speaker. Bachelor of Psychology Honours Some questioned the true prevalence After many years of valued graduate and PhD candidate, Harley of this issue for young women when leadership from John Gallant and Stansfield. Having noticed a shift the statistics tell us that on average Lilian Derrick, the Gold Coast in social media from an obsession women are living in larger bodies Skeptics is now under the guidance with thinness to fitness in women’s than ever and others suggested that of president Dr Paulie Stehlik. Paulie bodies Stansfield spent the past year perhaps this was a positive step given and a talented brain’s trust have been surveying young women about how the rates of overweight and obesity in implementing a plan to grow critical the desire to be lean and muscular the western world and the changing thinking on the Gold Coast. versus thin affected their level of perceptions among some populations According to Paulie, the body satisfaction. of what is a ‘healthy’ body. transformation plan has been a The presentation, titled “Strong The success of the night confirmed

The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe is a weekly Science podcast talkshow discussing the latest news and topics from the world of the , , and controversial claims from a scientific point of view.

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10 The Skeptic March 18

that having a guest speaker was is managing the campaign to support have joined anti- crusader a great way to foster discussion, Britt who is being sued in Germany Prof Ken Harvey’s Whack-a-Mole promote , and for defamation by US naturopath project. The project aims to provide introduce skepticism to a new ‘Dr’ Colleen Huber. students with the practical experience audience. Stansfield brought with of advocating against false and him a number of friends who were THE ‘WIDER’ FUTURE misleading claims about therapeutic all young professionals in the field of Where to next for the GC products and services. Dr Paulie health and for whom this was their Skeptics? The plan is to harness the plans to invite students to present first exposure to an organised skeptics enthusiasm of their new recruits their findings at a GC Skeptics in the event. The fans mixed well with into activism. They have recently Pub event in late 2018. established members and stalwarts of submitted a response to the proposed It seems that for the GC Skeptics the GC Skeptics who in turn received changes to the Therapeutic Goods planning and innovation are paying an insight into an issue important Administration Bill with reference dividends. The organisation dedicated to the new generation of skeptics in to advertising and loose definitions to promoting science and critical their community. The GC Skeptics of “permissible indications” of thinking is increasing community plan to capitalise even further on therapeutic goods. The submission engagement and providing original their monthly events by recording the can be viewed on the TGA website. content for social media consumers. presentations and ensuing discussion In another project, the GC For the four Brisbane Skeptics it was for a podcast series. Skeptics’ president and her colleague definitely worth the journey for a Prof Chris Del Mar from the fun night with good food and drink, A ‘BROADER’ PRESENCE Centre for Research in Evidence and plenty of discussion for the drive The other facet of the GC Skeptics’ Base Practice at Bond University, home. . regeneration plan has been to increase their online presence. With support from Australian Skeptics Inc, GC Skeptics has a new website, which is a hub for monthly blog and social media accounts including Facebook, Instagram and Twitter. This is part of a strategy to make critical thinking Where are you going? accessible to a broader group of skeptics. The GC Skeptics also have the Dear subscriber ... local universities in their sights as a source of new members. Given If you change your the numbers of health and science postal or email graduates that Griffith and Bond produce, they both have plenty address, please of potential for recruiting a new generation of skeptical thinkers. drop us a line. There are other plans afoot for the GC Skeptics too. They have teamed We know how up with the Brisbane Skeptic Society to provide a free and family friendly traumatic it event to celebrate International Darwin Day on February 11th on would be to Brisbane’s Southside. The event will include the obligatory BBQ with a miss even a free snag on bread and guest speakers to celebrate the life and work of single copy Charles Darwin. The GC Skeptics of The Skeptic. and the Brisbane Skeptic Society will also be using the event to raise funds for the legal defence of Britt Hermes former naturopath turned skeptical campaigner. Australian Skeptics Inc. 11 OBITUARY Sir Jim R Wallaby V a l e Barry Williams t is with great sadness that we heard Ithe news of the passing of Barry Williams, who died on January 20, 2018, at the age of 79, following a series of heart operations. Barry as we knew him There are a number of people who were intrinsic to the foundation of the in Australia – Dick ‘national office’ of the Skeptics moved Smith, Mark Plummer, James Gerrand, there, followed by the magazine, The ... with Dr Karl but there was none more important to its Skeptic, the next year. history and development than Barry - for In his capacity as President of the many years he was the face of Skepticism notionally national Australian Skeptics, in this country. Barry took up a high media and described him as community profile, which he maintained ... with Randi “an ardent and active skeptic who until his retirement from active contributed greatly to our cause; a great skepticism in 2009. friend”. And as fellow Skeptic Peter Bowditch has said: “We should all AUTHOR, EDITOR, AND remember that we are here because he PROFESSIONAL SKEPTIC was there.” In 1990, he took over editorship of the Barry was born in Queensland on magazine “just for one issue”, which November 10, 1938. He joined the lasted for another 18 years. He obviously RAAF and served in various places loved it. It gave him the opportunity including at Butterworth air base in what to wax lyrical on his favourite topics, was then Malaya. He followed his RAAF which were cricket, Egyptology, cricket, In 1995 the Skeptics received a career with stints in scientific instrument , cricket, the Goons, cricket, sizeable bequest from the estate of Stanley sales and as a trade exhibitions manager aviation, cricket, opera, cricket, jazz, and David Whalley of Queensland. With for the US government in Sydney. cricket. these funds, the organisation established In 1980, he watched a TV program He continued to be a contributor to the Australian Skeptics Science and on a series of tests of water diviners the magazine with articles of whimsy and Education Foundation (ASSEF), and organised by Smith and Randi. Dick erudition, contributing many hundreds was able to create the paid position of said there should be an organisation of pieces he wrote before, during and Executive Officer, which Barry took established to do such tests on a regular after his time as editor. up, relinquishing the Presidential basis, so Barry put his hand up and He particularly wrote many notable chair. (With his skepticism in mind, formed the Sydney branch of what pieces under the anagrammatic you can imagine, as Barry put it, “his was then the Victorian-based nascent pseudonym of Sir Jim R Wallaby. (The flabberghastocity on being admitted to Australian Skeptics. (As a science ‘J’ is for Justyn, his middle name – that hospital on 20 December [last year] to journalist who had covered some of the stumped a lot of people, some of whom, find the cardiologist in charge of his case exhibitions he organised, he persuaded/ surprisingly, thought Sir Jim was a real was one Dr David Whalley”. This David cajoled/insisted the author of this piece person.) Under this name he wrote his Whalley is a distant relative of the other join the Sydney committee at its first more pompous, outraged, or just plain David Whalley whose generosity helped meeting. It was an offer I could not weird pieces. You could picture Sir Jim take Australian Skeptics, and Barry refuse.) sitting in his library in Wallaby Manor, with it, into new and dramatic areas. In 1985, the first Australian Skeptics writing letters to The Times complaining Coincidence? We don’t think so.) National Convention was held in about this that or the other, extolling the In his off-hours, Barry was a Sydney, and the following year the deeper meaning of cricket. prodigious reader, with a leaning toward 12 The Skeptic March 18

the press, and was instrumental in the manage to fulfil his wish. He would have transition of the Skeptics’ image from been very pleased that they had taken amusing novelty to serious players and such positive notice of his request. activists. We wish his family and wide circle He might have been a curmudgeon of friends, our sincere and deepest at times (a description he would and condolences. Barry Williams did approve of), but he also had great We finish this piece with the enthusiasm and a strong sense of President’s column that Barry wrote for humour and the ridiculous – a jolly the first issue of the magazine he edited. Santa with a “bah humbug” never far It is an inspirational dedication following ... with an old fossil from his lips. He could probably quote the birth of his first grandchild, and every word of the Goons shows, and he epitomises his rational, sincere, and was a mine of information on British satirical sides - in true self-deprecating science fiction and detective novels. He comedy. Boredom was never an issue in and somewhat surreal style, he undercut also had a strong interest in many topics, long conversations with him. it with the comment that: “This sort of but none more so than cricket. He was One of his last comments during his self-indulgence would never have been a cricket tragic to the nth degree – he recent hospitalisation was that he wanted allowed when Mendham was editor – could turn any conversation around to to “ensure he doesn’t croak before Ed; New grandfathers are allowed to be ... with Dr Karl cricket, regardless of the time, place or humiliation of the Poms in the Ashes is self-indulgent – Pres.” topic. He wrote the definitive article complete”. Rest in peace, Barry. on the of the number 87, the He might not have seriously intended We’ll miss you. . legendary but totally misplaced nemesis to croak, but the Australian test team did Tim Mendham of the Australian cricket team. That ... with Randi article was first published in The Skeptic in 1993 (reprinted in 2012), and in 2001 it was selected to be published in a book titled The Best Ever Australian AN OPEN LETTER TO NICHOLAS JOYCE, BORN MAY 2, 1990 Sports Writing – a 200 Year Collection. Appropriately, when Barry was At the moment you were born, the Solar System had a unique awarded the first Australian Skeptics configuration. This fact is unlikely to have any effect on your future life. Lifetime Achievement Award, the plaque Your name contains a certain selection of letters. Apart from being a label you was mounted on a facsimile of the will wear for life, or at least until you decide you would prefer to be called Ashes urn. He was thrilled. Cricket was something else, there is no hidden, esoteric significance in the letters which the answer to the meaning of life, the make up your name. You will live on a planet that is several billion years old universe and everything. and in a universe that is somewhat older. You are a member of the species That is, when the answer wasn’t skepticism. homo sapiens and your distant ancestors were of different species. You are Throughout his Skeptical and other not the descendant of purpose-built humans who were designed to dominate careers, he was always known as someone our planet, nor are you the result of experiments by spacefaring aliens. Your who wasn’t backward in letting people childhood ills will not be cured by quartz crystals, vibrations given off by know his opinions and shared his truly coloured threads, or appeals to entities. broad knowledge. (He once bet an The world you will live in is a strange, complex place, full of encyclopaedia salesman that if the latter contradictions. You will encounter , fear, ideologies, hatred, could ask a question Barry didn’t know dogmas and many other unpleasant things. You will also encounter knowledge, the answer to, he would buy a set of the overpriced books. He didn’t need to buy love, joy, beauty and lots and lots of people. I hope that you will be wary one.) of superstition, fear, ideology, hatred and dogma, that you will seek out His height, strong voice and, shall knowledge, love, joy and beauty and that you will be tolerant of people. I hope we say, his more than adequate size, that you will be sceptical, because skepticism insulates you from all those things meant he was an imposing figure in which are the fruits of unreason. any discussion, and he was never shy I will do everything I can to make it that way for you, and why not? in confronting the purveyors of woo That’s what grandfathers are for. and the shonks selling any form of pseudoscience and the paranormal. With much love, In the days before social media, Barry Barry Williams was ever present on TV, radio and in 13 THEM Readers’ indigestible Tim Mendham looks at those ‘other’ websites, where skeptics will find something of interest.

hroughout human history some people have been fascinated by their Town mortality, and that of the world. It’s not enough to die, you have to take everyone else with you. Sites on this topic range from the rabid to the religious, the manic to the matter-of-fact.

Doomsday Books What is it about religious the Mayan 2012 end of the world over 170 predictions dating from the doomsdayers that makes them relish scenario. While the site warns that 1st century CE to 2280, most with the end of the world? There seem to it is currently being transformed (no the usual Wiki hyperlinks to give you be parallel streams of pleasure and idea for how long) nonetheless “it more information. pain as they embrace their futureless will focus on debunking doomsday Both of these end with scientific future. theories and keep an apocalyptic predictions such as the heat death of One aspect of the pleasure, of focus”. the universe. course, is the glory to be found It takes apart the 2012 predictions One more place to look is an in the initiates’ and the righteous’ point-by-point, covering everything older list of doomsday predictions invitation to join with some God- from alien invasions and government on the James Randi Educational like figure in an exclusive afterlife conspiracies to Nostradamus and Foundation site (https://tinyurl. (or even a different life) in paradise. 50kg hailstones (that last one has com/yb82u5vx). Here are 44 Balance this against the pain - a an interesting history of deadly predictions discussed, in some cases cruel delight in the punishment falls and some exciting videos – at great detail. Just one example – of the ignorant and the unworthy count the number of times the the year 1524, noted for a number who will receive their comeuppance man with the swimming pool says of predictions of major flooding in at the hand of divine fate and “Oh my God”). But its rebuttals Europe: “In response to the 1524 retribution. revolve around countering every prophecies, in Germany, people The Old and New Testaments claim with alternative quotes and set about building boats, while one are full of anticipation of the End predictions from the Bible. These, Count von Iggleheim ... built a coming soon ... not now, but soon you might not be surprised, are three-storey ark. In Toulouse, French … well, any day now … eventually. not as dispassionately appraised as President Aurial also built himself And when they are proved wrong those debunked. But what it lacks a huge ark. In some European port they find a lame excuse, presume in dispassionate appraisal (and it is cities, the populace took refuge their religiosity must have changed anything but dispassionate) it makes on boats at anchor. When it only God’s will, and devote themselves to up for in comprehensiveness. rained lightly on the predicted the next one. On a more sombre scale, you have date where von Iggleheim had One of the interesting experiences a number of sites that simply list a his ark, the crowd awaiting the for Skeptics is observing two sides long series of doomsday predictions deluge ran amok and, with little of woo facing off. Creationists fight over the years. better to do, stoned the count to astrologers on human influence, Flat Rational Wiki (tinyurl.com/ death. Hundreds were killed in the and Hollow Earthers know that the ycgkfs7l) has a long list, which gets resultant stampede.” Which just goes other faction is clearly misled. longer as you come into recent to show how exciting doomsdays can The End of the World site history – 2 predictions from the 1st be. It’s sadly worth pointing out, as (endoftheworld2012.net) is an century BCE, 43 listed for the 20th the 1878 edition of Encyclopaedia example of “my doomsday is century, and 53 already for the 21st. Britannica does, that 1524 was “a better than your doomsday”. It Another site is Wikipedia itself year, as it turned out, distinguished investigates claims made for (tinyurl.com/cfqcmrh) which has for drought”. . 14 PUZZLES The Skeptic March 18

ACROSS Brain testers 1. &10. A medicinal retentive holds the substance of CRYPTIC CROSSWORD no 37 unproven health products. (11,8) 7. One on one particle. (3) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. Gambol soft not strong in Gallic country. (6) M 10. See 1 across. 9 E 10 12. Bank lender houses the joint. (5) 11 13. Sex meter taken to the Outer Limits. (8) I 15. Break cane and see spots. (4) 12 13 C 16. Fashion from three hundred ton, love. (7) T 14Y 18. Laugh at a model train scale. (2) 15 16 17 S 18 21. He backs an interrogatory. (2) 19 20 22. Pointed items not required endlessly. (7) N A 23. Sure about this trick? (4) 21 22 23 A 26. Four in the priest makes you better. (8) 23 24 25 P E 28. Paper almost gets the drugs. (5) 26 27L 28 29. Sci-fi not changing stories. (8) V 30. The place to sit? It’s a lie. (6) 29 30 32. Little Edward’s extremely dangerous situation. (3) J 33. Nutty Harpo a form of 1&10 across. (11) W 31 32 33 A DOWN Tim Mendham + Steve Roberts 1. … Beta whistles and gamma shouts. It’s all in the DR BOB’S QUIZ mind, you know. (5,5) 2. Following the broken cart ruler. (8) 3. Take the bat and say you’ll put it on the shelf. (6) 1. Which famous Australian racing car driver won the Australian 4. Sort of conversation you’d have with an Skeptics Bent Spoon award in 1986 for the “ polariser” otolaryngologist after hours. (2) device, based on Energy? 5. Incompetent writer turned up in it. (5) 2. Where would you find the Carl Sagan Memorial Station? 6. Even dice need proof. (8) 7. One gets up for flowers. (6) 3. The Nazca Lines are a series of large ancient geoglyphs in the 8. No, you say it’s her original name? - (3) Nazca Desert. They are thought by some to be landing runways 11. Save the vinyl! (6) for ancient UFOs. In which country can they be found? 14. How python meat is endlessly diluted? (10) 4. The paranormal claim of involves gaining 17. Not really a chopper, but quite shrewd. (6) information about people by doing what? 19. Ideas not used to calm things down. (8) 20. Food to help you work out your unit rent. (8) 5. According to western , which are the three Earth zodiac signs? 24. Duck sounds like dodgy doctors. (6) 25. Nodded off? Please stir! (6) 27. Toni’s strange denial. (2,3) 29. The charge for fifofum. (3) 31. Time for a title. (1-1) Answers on page 62

0315 FEATURE The Earth Having a Ball

Moriel Schottlender suggests there are 10 Easy Ways You Can Tell For Yourself That The Earth Is Round Illustration: SI Clark

while ago I released a video and believe in a kooky of an experiment explaining to enjoy some historical factoids about howA calculated the humanity’s quest for space. of the Earth using the So, on we go to the top 10 ways shadow of sticks. He did that almost to know the Earth is unequivocally, two millennia ago, and produced absolutely, positively, 100 per cent not quite accurate results considering the flat: equipment available. But it was far from being the only (or first) method to 1 THE understand our planet’s shape. Now that humanity knows quite Humanity has known the Earth to positively that the Moon is not a be round for a few millennia and I’ve piece of cheese or a playful god, the been meaning to refine that video and phenomena that accompany it (from show more of these methods of how its monthly cycles to lunar eclipses) are we figured out the world is not flat. well-explained. It was quite a mystery (You can see the video at tinyurl.com/ to the ancient Greeks, though, and in yaysddbb.) their quest for knowledge they came up I’ve had a few ideas on how to do with a few insightful observations that that, but I got an interesting incentive helped humanity figure out the shape of when Phil “The Bad Astronomer” Plait our planet. wrote about a BBC article on the Flat (384-322 BCE) made quite Earth Society. Phil claimed that it’s a lot of observations about the spherical ridiculous to even bother rebutting the nature of the Earth. He noticed that movement, and I tend to during lunar eclipses, when the Earth’s agree. But the history of our species’ orbit places it directly between the Sun intellectual pursuit is important and and the Moon, creating a shadow in interesting, and it’s very much well the process, the shadow on the Moon’s worth writing about. You don’t need surface is round. This shadow is the October 24, 1946 to denounce all science and knowledge Earth’s, and it’s a great clue to the 16 The Skeptic March 18

spherical shape of the Earth. in Egypt and […] Cyprus which August 14, 1959 Since the earth is rotating (see the are not seen in the northerly Foucault Pendulum experiment for a regions.” This phenomenon can definite proof, if you are doubtful), the only be explained with a round consistent oval-shadow it produces in surface, and Aristotle continued each and every proves that and claimed that the sphere of the earth is not only round but spherical the Earth is “of no great size, for Having a Ball – absolutely, utterly, beyond a shadow otherwise the effect of so slight of a doubt not flat. a change of place would not be quickly apparent.” (De caelo, 2 SHIPS AND THE HORIZON 298a2-10) If you’ve been next to a port lately, or The farther you go from the equator, 5 SEEING FURTHER FROM HIGHER just strolled down a beach and stared the farther the ‘known’ constellations go Standing in a flat plateau, you look vacantly into the horizon, you might towards the horizon, and are replaced ahead of you towards the horizon. You have, perhaps, noticed a very interesting by different stars. This would not have strain your eyes, then take out your phenomenon: approaching ships do not happened if the world was flat. favourite binoculars and stare through just ‘appear’ out of the horizon (like them, as far as your eyes (with the help they should if the world was flat), but 4 SHADOWS AND STICKS of the binocular lenses) can see. rather emerge from beneath the sea. If you stick a stick in the [sticky] Then, you climb up the closest tree – But – you say – ships do not ground, it will produce a shadow. The the higher the better, just be careful not submerge and rise up again as they shadow moves as time passes (which to drop those binoculars and break their approach our view (except in Pirates is the principle for ancient Shadow lenses. You then look again, strain your of the Caribbean, but we are hereby Clocks). If the world had been flat, then eyes, stare through the binoculars out to assuming that was a fictitious movie). two sticks in different locations would the horizon.

Illustration: SI Clark The reason ships appear as if they produce the same shadow. The higher up you are the farther “emerge from the waves” is because the But they don’t. This is because you will see. Usually, we tend to relate world is not flat: it’s round. the earth is round, and not flat: this to Earthly obstacles, like the fact we Imagine an ant walking along the Eratosthenes (276-194 BCE) used this have houses or other trees obstructing surface of an orange, into your field principle to calculate the circumference our vision on the ground, and climbing of view. If you look at the orange of the Earth quite accurately. That’s upwards we have a clear view, but that’s “head on”, you will see the ant’s body what my experiment video shows. not the true reason. Even if you would slowly rising up from have a completely clear the “horizon”, because plateau with no obstacles of the curvature of the June 5, 1966 between you and the orange. If you would do horizon, you would that experiment with a see much farther from long flat road, the effect greater height than you would have changed: The would on the ground. ant would have slowly This phenomenon is ‘materialised’ into view, caused by the curvature depending on how sharp of the Earth as well, and your vision is. would not happen if the Earth was flat. 3 VARYING STAR CONSTELLATIONS 6 TAKE A TRIP This observation was IN A PLANE originally made by If you’ve ever taken Aristotle who declared a trip out of the the Earth was round country, specifically judging from the long-destination trips, different constellations you could notice two one sees while moving interesting about away from the equator. planes and the Earth: After returning from • Planes can travel in a trip to Egypt, he noted a relatively straight line that “there are stars seen a very long time and 17 FEATURE The Earth

Having a Ball Continued...

not fall off any edges. They can also, August 23, 1966 theoretically (and some do) circle the earth without stopping. • If you look out the window on a trans- flight, you can, most of the time, see the curvature of the earth in the horizon. The best view of the curvature used to be on the Concorde, but that plane’s long gone. I can’t wait to see the pictures from sub-orbital flights from Virgin Galactic – the horizon should look absolutely curved, as it actually is from a distance. later Venus was observed too) are all Another point concerning timezones, spherical, and all orbit the sun. the sun and flat/: If the 7 LOOK AT OTHER PLANETS A flat planet (ours or any other sun was a “spotlight” (very directionally The Earth is different from other planet) would be such an incredible located so that light only shines on a planets, that much is true. After all, we observation that it would pretty much specific location) and the world was have life, and we haven’t found any go against everything we know about flat, we would see the sun even if it other planets with life (yet). However, how planets form and behave. It would didn’t shine on top of us. The same there are certain characteristics all not only change everything we know way you can see the light coming out planets have, and it will be quite about planet formation, but also about of a spotlight on a stage in the theatre, logical to assume that if all planets star formation (our sun would have to even though you – the crowd – are in behave a certain way, or show certain behave quite differently to accustom a the dark. The only way to create two characteristics – specifically if those “flat earth” theory), what we know of distinctly separate timezones, where planets are in different places or were speeds and movements in space (like there is complete darkness in one while created under different circumstances – planets orbits, and the effects of gravity, there’s light in the other, is if the world our planet is the same. etc). In short, we don’t just suspect that is spherical. In other words: If so many planets our planet is spherical. We know it. that were created in different locations 9 THE CENTRE OF GRAVITY and under different circumstances 8 THE EXISTENCE OF TIMEZONES There’s an interesting fact about mass: show the same property, it’s likely that The time in at the moment it attracts things to it. The force of our own planet has the same property these words are written is 12:00pm, attraction (gravity) between two objects as well. All of our observations show noon. The sun is in the middle of the depends on their mass and the distance planets are spherical (and since we sky (though it’s hard to see with the between them. Simply said, gravity will know how they’re created, it’s also current cloud coverage). In , pull toward the centre of mass of the obvious why they are taking this it’s 12:00am, midnight, and the sun objects. To find the centre of mass, you shape). Unless we have a very good is nowhere to be found. In , have to examine the object. reason to think otherwise (which we Australia, it is 1:30am. More than 13 Consider a sphere. Since a sphere has don’t), our planet is very likely the hours ahead. There, the sunset is long a consistent shape, no matter where on same. gone – so much so, that it’s soon going it you stand, you have exactly the same In 1610, Galileo Galilei observed to rise up again in the beginning of a amount of sphere under you. Imagine the of Jupiter rotating around new day. an ant (perhaps the same one from it. He described them as small planets This can only be explained if the the earlier point) walking around on a orbiting a larger planet – a description world is round, and rotating around its crystal ball. Assuming the crystal ball (and observation) that was very difficult own axis. At a certain point when the is polished, the ant’s only indication for the church to accept as it followed sun is shining on one part of the Earth, of movement would be the fact it’s a where everything the opposite side is dark, and vice versa. moving its feet. The scenery (and shape was supposed to revolve around the That allows for time differences and of the surface) would not change at all. Earth. This observation also showed timezones, specifically ones that are Consider a flat plane. The centre that the planets (Jupiter, Neptune, and larger than 12 hours. of mass of a flat plane is in its centre 18 The Skeptic March 18

Ocean and cloud coverage. It was taken from about 17,000 miles (27,350 kilometres) above the surface. • June 5, 1966: Astronaut Eugene Cernan took an amazing picture of Gemini 9 and the Earth during his EVA (Extravehicular Activity). The spacecraft itself and Cernan’s “umbilical” (the cord that keeps him connected to the spacecraft’s systems) are visible on top of a beautiful background of the Earth. • August 23, 1966: First view of Earth from the Moon. This picture was taken by Lunar Orbiter I when the spacecraft was on its 16th orbit and was just about to pass behind the (more or less – if you want to be more people to space. Some of them got Moon. accurate, feel free to do the entire back, some of them still float through • December 29, 1966: A spectacular [shriek] integration [shriek] process), the solar system (and beyond it) view of the rising Earth from the and the force of gravity will pull a and transmit amazing images to our Moon, taken by the crew of Apollo person toward the middle of the plain. receivers on Earth. 8 after coming out from the other That means that if you stand on the Some of the early ones taken from side of the Moon, approximately edge of the plane, gravity will be pulling US craft are published on these pages. 239,000 miles (384,000 kilometres) you toward the middle, not straight They are: from Earth. down like you usually experience. • October 24, 1946, a group of But there have been hundreds of I am quite positive that even for scientists in the New Mexico desert pictures, videos and audio records Australians an apple falls downwards, saw the first grainy photo of the from more than just the United States. but if you have your doubts, I urge Earth. The photograph was taken Some of these countries used to be you to try it out – just make sure it’s from a height of 65 miles (104.6 enemies. Some still are. The amount nothing that can break or hurt you. Just kilometres) by a 35-millimetre of proofs, from opposing countries in case gravity is consistent after all. motion picture camera riding on a and ‘sides’, for the non-flatness of V-2 missile. the Earth, if nothing else, should cast 10 IMAGES FROM SPACE • August 14, 1959: First serious doubt on any possibility for the In the past 60 years of the space crude photo of the Earth from the existence of “Global Conspiracy”. . exploration era of humanity’s history, Explorer VI . The photo we’ve launched , probes and showed a sun-lit area of the Pacific Note: This article first appeared on the author’s website Smarter Than That in 2008 (tinyurl.com/y7suctfu). December 29, 1966 It has needed very little updating, as the arguments for a Flat Earth rarely change, and the proofs that the Earth is a sphere still apply (funny that). The original online article has animations and links for further information and amusement.

About the interviewer: Moriel Schottlender is a physicist-turned-computer scientist who is “passionate about encouraging fact- driven depictions of our reality”. 19 FEATURE The Earth THE Flat Forum

Richard Saunders interviews Moriel Schottlender on life after her 10 Easy Ways article – facing down the Flat Earthers online

Photo: Michael Holloway

n recent months there has been a revival of interest in the suggestion that the do so he made a comment on Twitter I Earth is flat - righteous rappers and rabid rocketmen have appeared out of and then dropped it. nowhere to espouse a theory that was done and dusted thousands of years ago. But then I got an email from Popular Science and they said, hey, this RS: Some years ago, you wrote an comments. This was in 2008, and every is news again, and they asked if they article online about the Flat Earth and year it would come in waves, and I could republish my article. I said yes. I unbelievably this has come back to bite suddenly would get 20, 30 up to 50 knew that if I got 6000 comments on you. comments a day on that ridiculous my website I’d probably get a few more argument! on Popular Science. And of course I MS: Oh my gosh, I didn’t expect that. did. On Twitter people started to either I didn’t write it as an article that would RS: The flat Earth is a running joke in thank me or argue with me. Most of be contentious - I wrote it as a tongue- the skeptical community, but I guess the the arguers seemed not to have read in-cheek piece for people who already joke is now on us for all the increased the article, and all I had to do was say, know the world is round. I just laid out interest in the last six months. “Read #3”, which is great when you an explanation of how we knew it. Like, have an article which is a list of things it wasn’t because of Columbus finding MS: At some point I decided to close and you can refer to the item number. the Americas, obviously, so how far down the comments - I think there’s Ever since then every time someone back did we know it – from the ancient something like 6000 comments raises the issue of flat Earth – and it Greeks. That was the point of the article and it was getting completely out of seems to be happening a lot lately – I - 10 ways to know the Earth is not flat. control. I didn’t think it was getting seem to be the easy target to approach That gained a little bit of really weird much valuable contribution, it just with either “You don’t know what attention for several years. I started kept going over the same arguments. you’re talking about, the Earth is flat”, getting comments, some from trolls But a couple of months after that - I followed by weird arguments, or “Hey, but some who I think were actually think six months or a year ago – the share this”. members of the Flat Earth Society – I rapper B.o.B. starting going off about One of the things that is happening could never really figure out. I think the flat Earth, specifically baiting Neil is that, on Twitter, you can mention some of them were just trying to stir de Grasse Tyson but also trying to get someone and the rest of the thread will the waters but there were some who the scientific community to answer follow. So ever since the publication actually believed the world is flat. So back. And there was a little bit of noise in Popular Science I’d get waves of there was a lot of arguments in the online, but Tyson has better things to comments saying “Of course the 20 The Skeptic March 18

world is not flat, because ….” and then would happen if the Earth was hollow – know how to analyse. They feel that arguments that they thought I’d never it only took one homework assignment adults dismiss them because they’re heard before, but there’s a limit to how to know that that was ridiculous. True kids. I see a lot of that on the forums many arguments you can put up about it was college level, but it was in the that I’m in. It’s hard because you the flat Earth. first year. don’t want to discourage the kid from The Flat Earthers and Hollow learning, but on the other hand you do RS: What’s the number one thing that Earthers seem to be want them to understand the Flat Earthers would use in their related. They don’t that they aren’t doing it argument? agree with each other “ Some of the right. but they use a lot of people we argue Those arguments MS: They would say that I don’t know common things, like the for me are the hardest what I’m talking about and that the government is lying to with are probably because I do see potential government is just lying to everybody. you, and we are being kids who are trying and I am trying. I can’t say I’ve seen one specific dismissed even though to learn things. But there are trolls and argument, but what I have seen is one we know the truth. ” cranks out there who, no specific method. What they do is, no Even though they will matter what you say, will matter what you say, they will say the not be able to solve the still believe conspiracy government is behind it and you are the fairly easy equations like, how would theories and that the Earth is flat, and shill of the government. gravity work if the Earth was hollow, NASA is lying to you. which you can do without much RS: It’s quite often that they will revert mathematical skill. RS: It’s that people default to conspiracy to conspiracy theories. theories. No matter what argument RS: What is it about the Flat Earth you put up, your argument is obviously MS: They actually start with that! They that’s made it so appealing in the last part of the conspiracy. It reminds me don’t even go far enough to argue with year; why are so many people jumping of a radio interview I did once where the science. on this particular bandwagon? the host said, “OK Richard, you’ve got They would start with something 30 seconds, convince me that the world very small, like the reason you see MS: AI think over the last few years is round.” So Moriel, you’ve got 30 boats rise up over the horizon, and we have seen a movement that is just seconds … they would say that your eyes are just anti-science and anti-intellectualism. no good. I wear glasses so they’re not People who look for something to latch MS: Well, luckily I wrote an article wrong. They say something pretty on to, to say that is wrong. Flat Earth is about it. You can just go ahead and read ridiculous and if you discuss optics and an easy one, because you go outside and it. how with telescopes you can see ships the world does look flat. But honestly, I stopped arguing rising, they would then go to conspiracy What I find really weird is that I with Flat Earthers because I see all the and then they jump to the next one. could have understood that even 100 arguments over and over and they’re They just jump from one to another. years ago, but nowadays you can have being answered, not just in my article They don’t have convincing telescopes in your own apartment to but all over the place, and usually when arguments. I encounter a lot of people look at other planets, you don’t need to someone argues for the Flat Earth who are Flat Earthers or those who are do anything, and you can see that other nowadays they really don’t care about Expanding Earth theorists. planets are round. You go on a plane the answer. . and you can see the curvature of the RS: What’s that all about? Earth. It’s so accessible now. Note: This interview first appeared in MS: The expanding Earth theory, which RS: Do you think a lot of people just do The Skeptic Zone #480, December 31 is not really a scientific theory, says that it for fun? 2017 – skepticzone.tv. the Earth started out smaller and that it is expanding like a balloon. And that is MS: You do get trolls mixed in with the reason for the shift from Pangaea to the believers. Something that I notice, the continents and that is actually what not just with Flat Earth but with moves the Earth’s crust. general pseudoscience, is that some of They do say the Earth is a sphere but the people we argue with are probably About the interviewer: it’s hollow. kids who are trying to learn things, Richard Saunders is chief Here’s the thing. I did a Bachelors but they fall into traps that they don’t investigator for Australian in physics, and in the first month of understand but that seem very logical Skeptics Inc, and producer electrodynamics we looked at what and they read things that they don’t and host of the Skeptic Zone. 21 FEATURE The Earth Empty Notion Brian Dunning takes a peak inside the Hollow Earth

he Hollow Earth is yet Tanother alternative science that has managed to hang around for centuries despite being obviously wrong. There are many different models of hollow Earth theory, and support from equally diverse communities. It is a mind- bending example of how people can mould their world views to fit their beliefs, and then mould science itself to fit the world view. and they suppress this information, know about Today, the prevailing hollow Earth ostensibly to prevent other it, and that we theory states that the Earth is a hollow governments from finding out about it should all “wake shell, with its inner surface being much and claiming the territory. up” and see the truth. But this is the like the outer surface where we live. To most of us, this sounds like least interesting part of hollow Earth It has , mountain ranges, and a pretty far-out concept; so many theory, and only its most recently clouds; and hovering at the very centre applications of various sciences prove introduced aspect. There is a rich and of this hollow ball is a miniature sun it wrong. Nevertheless, even today, surprising history behind how this that warms the inner-surface residents. it has its supporters. Many books all came to be; a journey that began Slightly offset from the are available earnestly promoting the with scientific inquiry, but then went and the South Pole are theory. Websites such as through philosophy, the comfort of holes that allow travel A mind-bending OurHollowEarth.com, knowing the universe was small and between the outer “ HollowEarthNetwork. comprehensible, and religious zealotry. and inner worlds. The example of mould- com, and civilisation that lives ing science to fit HollowEarthTheory. HOLLOW HISTORY on the inner surface is com provide only a In the late 1600s, Isaac Newton had more advanced than their world view. starting point for active been active for some time and a lot ours, and they fly ” communities who firmly was already known about the Earth in and out through believe this. and its place in the . Although the polar openings in flying saucers, Conspiracy mongering is a big science had very good measurements, which explains UFO sightings by the part of most of today’s hollow Earth underlying theory in many areas was outer surface civilisation. Only the writings: familiar assertions that the incomplete. For example, we knew that government knows about the polar government is covering it up, the the magnetic pole had shifted over the openings and the inner civilisation, proverbial “they” don’t want you to centuries, but there was not yet a sound 22 The Skeptic March 18

consensus on what made it do so. We many other sciences to fit his proposed knew about the , but knew little model. about its cause. Astronomer , after whom the famous comet STRAIGHT LINE THEORY was named when he calculated its Perhaps the greatest story from the orbit, presented his theories on both annals of Hollow Earth theory was of these matters to the Royal Society. launched in 1897 by Ulysses Grant Halley proposed that ferrous matter Morrow, a member of Teed’s Koreshan constituting the magnetic pole may Unity, and a fellow believer in the have been movable because it was not inside-out universe theory. Morrow had attached to the Earth’s surface, but made numerous sightings at water level was instead embedded in a freely- and verified the visibility of objects that floating sub-sphere inside that upon should have been below the horizon, which we live. He suggested that there given a globe-shaped Earth; but he were as many as three such layers found that scientists dismissed his around a solid core, all gravitationally results because they could have been centred, and all separated by criticised Halley’s idea of concentric accounted for by simple atmospheric atmospheres. He suggested that the shells in a later volume of the same distortion, as is common at sea. aurora could be caused by luminous book. Morrow contrived an experiment gases leaking out of a polar opening. It was Cyrus Teed, an American that he felt nobody could argue with: Newton had already shown that the alchemist and pagan healer, who the construction of an absolutely Earth was an oblate spheroid, thickest first proposed a different Earth straight reference line, four miles long, at the equator. model, based on what he described over water. If the inside-out theory This made sense to Halley, who as a spiritual illumination from the was correct, Morrow’s construction figured that the outer crust was Divine Motherhood. In Teed’s view, would be close to the water surface therefore thicker at the equator to the Earth was a sphere, but inside- at its ends and high off the water at account for the oblation and thinner out. The sun, moon, and all celestial its middle. He went to work setting at the poles; so thin that there could phenomena are contained within, and up his experiment on the Old have been permeability for his we all live upon a concave surface that Drainage Canal, Summit, Illinois. luminous gases. He also reasoned that matches precisely the distances and What he ended up with was a set if there was light and an atmosphere directions of the conventional Earth of four “rectilinears”, 12-foot-long between each layer, each might well be model - an isolated enclosed hollow inhabited. cell in a universe of solid rock. Teed Another name from science has established the Koreshan Unity, a sort frequently been associated with of commune church where celibacy the hollow Earth, that of Swiss was practiced and hollow Earthism was mathematician and physicist Leonhard the philosophy. In a book published in Euler, perhaps the most important 1870, The Cellular Cosmogony, or the and prolific mathematician of the Earth a Concave Sphere, Teed described 1700s. In one of his publications, he his own theories of light, gravity, and discussed what would happen if you drilled a hole all the way through the Earth and dropped a stone through it. (This was a thought experiment only. It later appeared in Letter XLIV in the posthumous publication Letters of Euler on Natural Philosophy, 1835). Apparently, despite much namedropping by various hollow Earth authors, this one statement was the closest Euler ever came to endorsing their theory. It appears Opposite: Edmond Halley that Euler’s association with hollow Top: Leonhard Euler Earthers is completely misinterpreted Above: John Symmes, who almost got an ex- and made up; there’s no evidence that pedition to the Hollow Earth up and running he was a believer. Moreover, he openly until President Jackson put an end to it. 0323 FEATURE The Earth

Empty Notion Continued...

and 4-foot-wide mahogany and brass rectangles, specially and carefully constructed by the Pullman railroad car company. The rectilinears were shaped like the letter H, diagonally cross braced with steel bars for rigidity. They were designed to bolt securely to one another with absolute precision, and extend a perfectly straight line. It wasn’t practical to build four miles of rectilinears, so Morrow planned to start with one that was absolutely level, and then extend the line by leap-frogging each rectilinear from the back of the line to the front as each was secured in place. Each piece would be inverted when it was moved, to cancel out any possible asymmetries in the construction of each. If the Earth’s surface were indeed which tides were measured and sphere on whose inner surface we live. curved, either concave or convex, the corrected for. This was a huge confirmation for distance between the rectilinear and The first rectilinear was positioned the Koreshan Unity Foundation. the mean water level would change on March 18, 1897, solidly held on Modern analysis of their published slowly at first as the line extended, and two securely anchored standards, data shows no methodological errors, the error would increase the further and exhaustively levelled using two and their experimental design was they went, as the curve grew steeper. calibrated levels and a plumb bob. sound. How, then, can we account for The mean water level was determined Morrow’s team proceeded slowly and their result? using caissons along the route, at deliberately, spending nearly two The answer lies in the construction months to traverse the four miles. of the rectilinears. One survives Data was carefully measured and today, on display at the Koreshan recorded the whole way, by multiple State Historic Site in Lee County, independent teams, with every Florida. Although the rectangles number double checked and initialled. were diagonally braced with steel The results? Exactly as Morrow had rods to keep them precisely square, expected, the data showed the Earth a critical attachment is missing. The curving upward toward his rectilinears steel rods were not connected to one at a rate that was consistent with a another where they intersect, nor concave, hollow Earth with a radius were they connected to the main of 4050 miles (6519 km). The Earth’s structural cross bar. The intersection actual radius is 3963 miles (6378 was freely floating. If there had been km). Morrow’s measurement of the a connection, each rectilinear would Earth’s size was correct to 2.2 per cent have indeed been a rigid rectangle. accuracy — but as a hollow, inside-out Instead, this intersection was free to move up and down, allowing Left: Cyrus Teed and his big catch. the structure to relax into a slight Above: The Koreshan exhibit at the 1901 Pan trapezoid. American Exposition in New York If supported by one end only — as Opposite: The Koreshans’ New Jerusalem each necessarily was when being bolted Top far right: Ulysses Grant Morrow, who was to its neighbour — it sagged, probably going to prove the concave Earth. not enough to notice by eyeballing. The Skeptic March 18

Above: Diagram of the Air Line, showing use of the Rectilineator in survey of Chord of Arc by the Koreshan geodetic staff at Naples, Florida.

Morrow assumed that inverting each today that the Earth and universe way. Some of his evidence of a secret segment each time it was reused would are as we observe but that there is polar opening includes the fact that cancel out any irregularities. But this also a civilisation living on the inner animals migrate seasonally, and where design failure meant that each section side of the Earth’s crust. Symmes was else would they be going; and the fact sagged downward regardless of which actually close to getting the American that early maps of the northern regions way it was oriented. government would be changed over the centuries, As the Earth’s surface to sponsor an consistent with official cover-ups. curved downward “The Hollow Earth is expedition to find Whatever model they espouse, away from Morrow’s not so hollow after all, the north polar hollow Earth theories represent a line, the line sagged opening, but when fascinating look into the culture of the downward twice but is pregnant with President Andrew time. Whether it was Halley’s genuine as far, creating the sociological insight. Jackson took office scientific curiosity, Teed’s and Bender’s illusion that the Earth ” in 1829, the plan counterculture religious beliefs, or was curving upward died. modern anti-establishment conspiracy toward the line. That it happened And while the inside-out universe theories, we find that the hollow to sag just enough to give an exactly theory has withered away, the Earth is not so hollow after all, but is opposite radius for the Earth appears to inner- and outer-world model has pregnant with sociological insight. The be just a coincidence. comparatively flourished. Gone are the riches of any urban are found The inside-out universe as a form colorations of early scientific inquiry only when you dig past the legend of religious mysticism continued in and religious mysticism, and in their itself. . Nazi Germany under the leadership place is simple conspiracy mongering. of Luftwaffe pilot Peter Bender, who Recent authors, such as Raymond Note: Reprinted with permission from became head of the religious order and Bernard in The Hollow Earth: The Skeptoid #343, January 1, 2013. whose work was continued by Karl Greatest Discovery in History, claim that Neupert, author of Geokosmos. A whole many of the great early polar explorers host of German authors continued were actually on secret missions to this theme throughout the 1930s and discover the polar openings and 1940s. contact the inner-surface civilisation. About the author: But it was American John Symmes South African author Jan Lamprecht Brian Dunning is host and who was the earliest successful suggests that all the rocky planets in producer of the Skeptoid promoter of the model most popular the solar system are constructed this podcast (www.skeptoid.com). 25 FEATURE The Earth

The HOLE in the Secret entranceways to the hollow earth have been proposed for centuries. POLE Tim Mendham digs deeper into the places and faces of those seeking to go down a hole.

irtually every religion refers to The concept has been elaborated prehistoric world hundreds of miles Va subterranean world which is upon in some of the world’s great beneath the surface. The first volume variously an afterlife (, , or literature – the legend of Orpheus’s trip was titled At the Earth’s Core and Tarzan Elysian Fields) or a secret place where to retrieve his lost love Eurydice, Dante’s himself makes a visit in one of the other civilisations do their business. , the Hindu . Casanova books. The Greeks had , the Jews had a go with his Icosaméron, the story A plethora of places below us. The , the Tibetan Buddhists have of a brother and sister who fall into the problem has been how to get there. Shamballa, the Nordic people have Earth and discover the subterranean Strictly speaking, this shouldn’t be a Svartálfaheimr, the Hindu . And, utopia of the Mégamicres, a race problem, as there are numerous caverns of course, the Christians have Hell. of multi-coloured, hermaphroditic and scattered across the surface dwarves. On the more popular level, of the globe that are said to lead to the Jules Verne’s Journey to the Centre of . the Earth was about an underground All across , Thrace and cavernous world (not a hollow Mesopotamia there are caverns that will earth), and HP Lovecraft’s At the take you down where you’re going to. Mountains of Madness was the Ireland has Cruachan – the gate to Hell discovery of the underground – in County Roscommon in the centre remnants of an ancient alien of the island, Station Island in County civilisation in Antarctica (full Donegal in the far north, and County of horrors too horrible to Down in the north-east. Station Island recount). Tarzan author Edgar was a site for for knights Rice Burroughs wrote a seven- and saints, and County Down featured novel series about , a that led to the land of the subterranean Tuatha Dé Danann, a group of people who are believed to have introduced Druidism to Ireland, and then went back underground. Going down! The list goes on – Germany, Italy, Overview of Hell, Antonio Manetti, 1506 , , Japan, China, , 26 The Skeptic March 18

The first of Borough’s Pellucidor series began with a trip to the Hollow Earth Below: Lovecraft’s Antarctic Moun- tains of Madness Bottom: Monument in Hamilton Ohio to John Symmes, hollow earth The HOLE in the proponent POLE

Verne’s view of the Centre of the Earth, as depicted by Edouard Riou (1864)

Turkmenistan, Brazil, Peru, Central term as president (some have suggested the people who live in the centre of the America, the USA. Iceland features as his support of ‘visionary’ projects and Earth, and the possible explanation for the site where Verne’s intrepid explorers claims might have played an influence) “Aryan-looking’ UFO pilots. start their journey to the centre of the and his successor Andrew Jackson Race to the pole by Nazis, mystery, Earth. In fact, there’s hardly a part squashed the idea. adventure, and excitement? Sounds like of the Earth where you’re not near But Adams was not the only world the plot of an Indiana Jones story. And an entrance to the underworld. Even leader to support the pole-hole notion. it is. The book Indiana Jones and the the Trobriand Islanders off the coast Among the many other claims of Hollow Earth by Max McCoy came out of New Guinea have a cavern called fascination with the (astrology, in 1997, and concerns “A violent storm, Obulkula that leads to the underworld. Nostradamus, etc), Adolf a dying explorer, and a curious (One website - entrances2hell.co.uk - Hitler and his supporters wooden box [that] make Indy the lists over 100 just in the UK, though were supposedly target of fanatical Nazi agents. somehow a lot of them look like interested in the prospect Inside the box are a slice of someone’s garage, including one called of disappearing down Icelandic stone with mythological Hot Day, which “is the notorious a hole. In fact, so the powers and a journal hinting at entrance from which emerged all the story goes, Hitler and his the existence of an underground sick, twisted and drug-addicted pop followers wanted to create civilisation near the top of the stars of the 1970s”.) a race of super soldiers, world. Indy and Ulla Tornaes, But there are two places that modern an like the a beautiful Danish scientist, hole fanatics point to as the ultimate Atlanteans, to rule the set out into the Arctic wastes, in gateways to the underground – the world. They escaped racing against Nazi explorers, North and South Poles. the last days of the to search for the lost city. John Symmes in the early 1800s Third Reich by going Their quest will lead proposed polar entrances, and lobbied through the opening them to a massive cavern the US Congress to get an expedition at the South Pole. beneath the snow, portal to the North Pole to prove it. Congress … and they are still to the legendary Ultima rejected it, but President John Quincy there, with Nazi- Thule - the key to Adams apparently agreed, calling the designed UFOs, Nazi Hitler’s mad plan for plan “visionary”. Adams only served one collaboration with world domination.” 27 FEATURE The Earth

ocean including drift indicators, the In 1946, Byrd was appointed Hole in the Pole sun compass, and bubble sextants. officer in charge of an Antarctic Continued... Because of this background, he was Developments Project. His fourth involved in the planning of the first Antarctic expedition was codenamed trans-Atlantic flight in 1919, and made Operation Highjump, which was the his own trans-Atlantic flight in 1927, largest Antarctic expedition to date just six weeks after Charles Lindbergh. and was expected to last six to eight THIS BYRD HAS FLOWN He would have been earlier, but he months. Any discussion of mad plots, eccentric had problems with his plane. (For the According to a supposed secret characters, and polar holes must record, Lindbergh was actually the journal of his experiences in the include reference to one of the great 19th person to cross the Atlantic in an Antarctic titled “The Inner Earth – My adventurers and explorers of the airplane, and the 82nd overall if you Secret Diary”, on February 19, 1947 20th century, Rear Admiral Richard include dirigibles. But he was the first Byrd flew into a “Symmes Hole” near Evelyn Byrd Jr (1888-1957). Byrd to do the non-stop flight solo.) the South Pole and made contact with was an American naval officer, a Byrd and his co-pilot Floyd Bennett the race that lives inside the Earth. recipient of the Medal of Honor (for were awarded the Medal of Honor Naturally, this report has been an achievement he might never have in 1926 for being the first people to covered up. But like all secret, covered- made), a pioneering aviator, and polar fly over the North Pole. Tickertape up reports, it is easily available on the explorer. He was also a leading Mason, parade and Presidential greeting from net. You can even buy it on Amazon. was supposedly involved with the Calvin Coolidge notwithstanding, his That’s assuming, of course, that what Illuminati and their plans for a New achievement has been cast into doubt, is available is genuine. World Order, and his early Arctic with suggestions he fell short by as As reported on the Truth and Antarctic explorations had been much as 130km, returning to base Seeker website (thetruthseeker. financed by the Illuminati’s paymaster, too quickly for the flight to have been co.uk/?p=7822), and in diary entries John D. Rockefeller. successful. There are also suggestions of that read like bad science fiction, Byrd Ok, that last bit is just silly. But he a doctored flight log. says: did have real achievements. But of greater interest to this article 1000 Hours - We are crossing over As a Naval aviator during World are Byrd’s supposed claims about the the small mountain range and still War I, he developed many techniques hollow Earth, a hole in the South Pole, proceeding northward as best as can for navigating airplanes over the open and flying saucers. be ascertained. Beyond the mountain

Richard Byrd memorabilia: His journal of his trip to the South Pole (1938); Byrd with with one of his early aircraft (1926); US commemora- tive stamp issued in 1933; and the Byrd memo- rial in Wellington, New Zealand (1962)

28 The Skeptic March 18

range is what appears to be a valley use that word). Ahead we spot what Above left: Tourists at the North Pole (but with a small river or stream running seems to be a city!!!! This is impossible! where’s the hole?) through the centre portion. There Aircraft seems light and oddly buoyant. Above right: Tibetan view of the Hollow Earth should be no green valley below! The controls refuse to respond!! My Something is definitely wrong and GOD!!! Off our port and starboard a time when the rationality of men abnormal here! We should be over Ice wings are a strange type of aircraft. must fade into insignificance and one and Snow! To the portside are great They are closing rapidly alongside! must accept the inevitability of the forests growing on the mountain They are disc-shaped and have a radiant Truth! I am not at liberty to disclose slopes. Our navigation Instruments quality to them. They are close enough the following documentation at this are still spinning, the gyroscope is now to see the markings on them. It is writing ... perhaps it shall never see oscillating back and forth! a type of Swastika!!! This is fantastic. the light of public scrutiny, but I must 1005 Hours - I alter altitude to Where are we! What has happened. I do my duty and record here for all to 1400 feet and execute a sharp left tug at the controls again. They will not read one day. In a world of greed and turn to better examine the valley respond!!!! We are caught in an invisible exploitation of certain of mankind [I] below. It is green with either moss or vice grip of some type! can no longer suppress that which is a type of tight knit grass. The Light Later, he reports that truth.” here seems different. I cannot see the the disc-shaped craft Surprisingly, Sun anymore. We make another left escorted him to a safe Like all secret there are some turn and we spot what seems to be landing area where he “ who are skeptical a large animal of some kind below was graciously greeted covered-up reports, it that the secret us. It appears to be an elephant! by emissaries from the is easily available on diary is genuine, NO!!! It looks more like a mammoth! domain of the Arianni, suggesting that it This is incredible! Yet, there it is! the Inner World of the the net. You can even is the work of an F. Decrease altitude to 1000 feet and Earth. After resting, he buy it on Amazon. Amadeo Giannini, take binoculars to better examine the and his crew were taken ” whose family animal. It is confirmed - it is definitely to meet the king and founded the Bank a mammoth-like animal! Report this to queen of . They of Italy – actually base camp. told him that he had been allowed to started in San Francisco - which later 1030 Hours - Encountering more enter Agartha because of his high moral morphed into the Bank of America! rolling green hills now. The external and ethical character. They went on Alternatively, it could be the work of temperature indicator reads 74 degrees to say that they were worried about a Missouri-based organisation called Fahrenheit! Continuing on our heading the safety of planet due to the atomic “The Society for a Complete Earth”, now. Navigation instruments seem bombs and other testing done above which first released the diary in the normal now. I am puzzled over their the surface by governments. After the 1970s. actions. Attempt to contact base camp. visit, Byrd and his crew were guided In a ‘definitive’ proof that the Radio is not functioning! back to the surface of the planet. 1947 diary is a fake, the author of a 1130 Hours - Countryside below As justification for relating these Spanish website, La Teoria de la Tierra is more level and normal (if I may events, Byrd says that “There comes Hueca (tinyurl.com/yd58zne6 - The 29 FEATURE The Earth

with the word Hole in the Pole “environment” in its title, and as Continued... such was the first such organisation chartered to study Hollow Earth Theory, which also has the global natural English language articles) points out environment as a that the dialogue between Byrd and whole, bringing his Agarthan hosts bears a striking together the study resemblance to that in a meeting of the oceans with between a Tibetan mystic and a visitor that of the both the from outside in the 1937 film “Lost lower atmosphere Horizon”. and the ionosphere. Unfortunately, the author firmly The publication believes that the ESSA photos of the of photos from two late-60s clearly prove the hollow Earth of its satellites – (see below), and muddies what are ESSA 3 and 7 - set already muddied waters by confusing in motion a new the North Pole with the South Pole, series of hollow thinking that the South is in winter Earth conspiracy darkness in February. theories. The ESSA-3 THE PHOTOS photograph was Finding evidence for the truth has taken on January been a difficult proposition. As every 6, 1967, and the hole seeker knows, cover-ups by second photograph governments and secret cabals have was taken by ESSA- made it impossible, not to mention 7 on November 23, downright dangerous, to reveal 1968. They show the northern regions a number of subjects on a regular the existence of the holes and the of the Earth from above, looking down monthly or semi-monthly schedule. civilisations inside the hollow earth that with the polar region in the middle. These posts were almost always the they lead to. Except, instead of any land, clouds, or same, with no changes made from So when government agencies release whatever, there is nothing in the middle the previous editions, and he never information by accident or naivety - just a large black spot … or, a hole! cross-posted, making it impossible that should otherwise be kept from Robert E. McElwaine (1948-2008) for most newsreader programs to the public, the holers leap on it with was one of the people who hopped realise that the message had already unbridled enthusiasm, and truth goes on this with great vigour. He was a been read. Robert’s messages out the window (or down a hole). self-described Bachelor of Science in always ended with the sentence: Thus it was with the release of photos physics who wrote a series of ranting ‘UN-altered REPRODUCTION of the Earth in the late 60s from the fringe science essays characteristically and DISSEMINATION of this US Environmental Science Services peppered with capitalised words for IMPORTANT information is Administration (ESSA) meteorological emphasis. Each essay covered topics ENCOURAGED’.” satellites. such as alien influence on violence, free In his typical arch-conspiracist style, ESSA was a United States Federal energy, coming UFO landings, and he posted the following when he saw executive agency created in 1965 cancer cures. the first ESSA photos: “The Earth is as part of a reorganisation of the As the site PopMartian describes HOLLOW! Its hollow shell is about 1500 Department of Commerce. Its him: “Robert McElwaine became miles thick at the equator, and about 500 mission was to unify and oversee one of the most famous Net. miles thick near the polar ENTRANCE the meteorological, climatological, during his tenure on Usenet, generating HOLES. The North Polar ENTRANCE hydrographic, and geodesic operations enough fame and interest to rate a FAQ HOLE is about 1400 miles in diameter of the United States. It operated until and his own newsgroup. Originally and centered close to the Earth’s axis 1970, when it was replaced by the new appearing on science groups and of rotation, while the South Polar National Oceanic and Atmospheric eventually posting to almost every ENTRANCE HOLE is slightly smaller, Administration (NOAA). It was the newsgroup in existence, McElwaine perhaps 1300 miles in diameter, and first US Government organisation would post long messages about somewhat off-center. The ENTRANCE 30 The Skeptic March 18

Left: The ESSA photo of the Hole in the Pole inclination of the satellite taking the astronauts Young and Duke descended Below: Thomas Mattingly’s photo of North images). During summer months, when in the Lunar Module (LM) ‘Orion’ to America from Apollo 16 (the hole is top left) the area is well lit, there is no hole.” explore the Descartes highlands region But that doesn’t stop of the moon, astronaut Mattingly conspiracy theorists (of course!). remained with the Command and As recently as 2016, a group Service Modules (CSM) ‘Casper’ in called SecureTeam10 posted a lunar orbit.” video on YouTube with “never The photo shows cloud cover with an before seen pictures of the interesting circle (yes, let’s call it a hole) alleged hole”. in the top left. Apart from the ESSA (One other conspiracy theorist site photographs, one of the published this photo and another one never-before-seen photos was that was very similar – so similar, in published in 1972. It shows fact, that it’s incredible that they didn’t North America, and has been realise that they had simply turned the readily available on the net ever first photo through 90 degrees.) since there was a net to look at. The video, despite being more Nonetheless, SecureTeam10, than 40 years late with its startling which sounds more impressive revelations, received wide publicity in than it is (at one point in the the tabloid (and digital tabloid) press. video they refer to the Arctic as None of those media outlets seemed to the Antarctic), claims a cover-up have checked to see if the photo really because “Every single satellite was secret, never-before-seen, or even image that we have of the North recent. Pole shows a massive hole or And they certainly didn’t seem to HOLES are usually filled up with some a black out hole put there to hide want to find out what the ‘hole’ was. kind of fog. At the geometric center of the whatever’s underneath.” This turned out to be a problem, Earth is a glowing ball of plasma, about That’s not even close to being true. as while the top secret photo is 600 miles in diameter, which serves as But what’s a bit of absurd hyperbole published everywhere, it is hard to the CENTRAL SUN that warms and between friends? find an explanation of it, or even an illuminates the Earth’s inner surface.” The photo in question was taken in acknowledgement of its existence. Sean Ellis, on his website Moteprime. 1972 by Ken Mattingly, a member of NASA does not seem to have org, points out that “[McElwaine’s] the crew of Apollo 16. published a rebuttal of the holers’ claim. caption includes the words ‘clearly As the online The fact that the claim showing the hole at the North Pole’. If caption for the photo is stupid might be a this is indeed the case, then it is nothing says (tinyurl.com/ “None of the media good reason not to short of remarkable, as the North Pole y8om44fa): bother, but it would is in complete darkness at this time of “AS16-118-18885 outlets seemed to be nice to have an year! (16 April 1972) - A have checked to see explanation to offer There are other things about these good view of Earth if the Mattingly photo in response to the photographs that raise problems, Ellis photographed about conspiracy nuts. says. “Not just the ‘hole’, but the entire one and one-half really was secret. ” Enter the Skeptical visible hemisphere of the Earth is in hours after trans-lunar meteorologist. sunlight - clearly impossible unless injection on April 16, Steve Symonds the pole is oriented directly toward 1972. Although there is a long time the sun. This is not, of course, the is much cloud cover, the United States Skeptic in NSW, and an experienced case. At no time during January 1967 in large part, most of Mexico and some meteorologist, so as often happens in was the entire Northern Hemisphere parts of Central America are clearly Skeptical circles, he readily gave a clear simultaneously bathed in sunlight. visible. Note Lake Michigan and Lake explanation. “The answer, of course, is that, the Superior and the Bahamas Banks (see “Air rises at the equator and sinks photos are composites - montages different shade of blue below Florida). back to earth at around 30°N and S and produced from a number of separate Just beginning man’s fifth lunar landing some of that flows back to the equator half-lit images to give a measure of mission were astronauts John W. Young, at the surface as the Trade Winds. Air global cloud cover. The ‘hole’ only commander; Thomas K. Mattingly, II, also rises in the vicinity of the Polar ‘appears’ when that area is in winter command module pilot, and Charles Front at about 50°N and S some of darkness (allied to the angle of M. Duke Jr, lunar module pilot. While that moves towards the equator and 31 FEATURE The Earth

Hole in Pole Continued...

sinks to 30°N and S with the equatorial air and flows back towards the pole at the surface producing the westerlies. Air rising at the polar front also moves towards the pole and sinks back to the surface at the poles. “This creates a belt of low pressure around the equator, a belt of high pressure around 30°, a belt of low pressure around 50° and high pressure again at the poles. High pressure areas have descending air. Cloud does not form in descending air and with no cloud you get no rain. All the world’s major deserts lie under the Sub-Tropical Ridge, the belt of high pressure around 30°, and also under the highs at the poles. The Antarctic and Arctic are deserts. If you have an ocean surrounded by land as you do in the Arctic, you will get widespread cloud over the land areas but where you have descending air over the ocean, you will get no cloud at all. The symmetrical nature of the flow of air around the Arctic means that the cloud free area Rodney Cluff, Hollow Earther and would-be will be virtually circular – exactly as you Hole explorer, fated to be stymied every time he see it in the photo. put a plan into action; Russian vessel Yamal “The Polar Night Vortex is a jet stream that circles the poles at around 10,000m. It tends to separate the air polar openings are that they are 840 In Alaska, Storr relates, Cluff met a over the pole from the sub-polar regions miles in diameter where they start to small group of people who had travelled and could help produce the clean edge dip into the earth, and at the neck to the icy state with the same idea. Soon to the cloud but there is no need to of the polar openings are 40 miles in they were ready to embark upon their worry about it. diameter. The North Polar Opening is mission. “We started on the road up “The simple explanation of a high located near Northland, Russia at 84.84 to Point Barrow,” Cluff said. “We saw pressure system, descending air and N Lat, 129 E Lon. The South Polar a sign, at one point, saying ‘This Is A therefore no cloud explains the Hole in Opening is on the exact opposite of the Private Road: Don’t Go Any Further’. the Pole well enough.” globe at 84.84 S Lat, 51 W Lon.” So we didn’t go any further.” Meteorologists 1, conspiracy Will Storr of the UK Telegraph Storr asked how long they had theorists 0. wrote a long article on the history driven before they reached the sign and of hollow Earthers in 2014 (tinyurl. aborted the mission? “About an hour,” THE CLUFF LINKS com/mapeg9a). Cluff’s story featured Cluff said. No discussion of holers would be prominently. Soon afterwards, the Cluff family complete without the salutary lessons It turns out Cluff was a long time moved back south. of a leading proponent of the hollow fanatic of the hollow Earth, so much so Of course, Cluff didn’t stop there. Earth, Rodney Cluff, author of World that in the 1980s he moved his family He was so confident in the theory that Top Secret: Our Earth IS Hollow. from New Mexico to Alaska so they he organised a tourist voyage to the Cluff knows the holes well: “My could be nearer the hole and perhaps hollow Earth, with a plan to set off latest best estimate of the size of the find it (much to his wife’s chagrin). from Russia on an icebreaker in June 32 The Skeptic March 18

A tour map for Polar visitors, similar to the route planned by Cluff ... twice.

exotic animals thought to originate from Inner Earth. This time, Cluff’s success in being thwarted did not fail him - the expedition was cancelled following the death of his partner in the venture, explorer Steve Currey, just weeks before the planned departure. No further trips were planned by Cluff until one of the various expedition members who had expressed interest to continue the quest to reach Inner Earth came forward with an offer to be their new expedition leader. Dr Brooks Agnew formed a new expedition company, put up a new expedition website and began to gather donations for the new North Pole Inner Earth Expedition, initially planned for August 2012, then postponed to July/August 2013. Unfortunately, Agnew resigned in September 2013, citing losses to his 2007 to find the Hole in the Pole. of European and experienced Russian electric car company. (voyagehollowearth.com). staff will serve you aboard. The popular Despite these continued setbacks, The vessel was the Russian bar is stocked with your favourite and like followers of many such nuclear-powered icebreaker Yamal, a spirits, wines and champagnes.” theories, Cluff’s enthusiasm and modern ship capable of carrying 108 Rooms were priced from US$18,950 single-mindedness for the hollow Earth voyagers with all mod cons. As the to $20,950 per person depending on lingers. He is adamant that he is right, promotion for the trip said: “The vessel the room type. and can’t understand what gets into accommodates passengers in 50 first- The itinerary was to start with some those who can’t see the light. class outside cabins and suites, all with sightseeing around , and then a “I don’t know how the flat- private facilities and large windows, flight to Murmansk to join the Yamal. Earthers can be so confused,” he told as well as a desk, television and other After several days of sailing to the North SunOnline. “They are obviously wrong. comforts. Public areas include a Pole (where they would spend the day The world is not flat – it’s hollow. They large dining room “and even call home reject all the evidence.” (accommodating to talk to family or And with those words hangs all passengers in “ I don’t know how friends!”), on Days 9-11 the story of the holers – dodgy one sitting), library, the Flat Earthers can they would start the evidence, hyperbolic and hyperactive lounge, theatre- search for the “North imagination, conspiratorial and style auditorium, be so confused ... They Polar Opening to the paranoid delusion, and a passion which volleyball court and reject all the evidence Inner Continent”. cannot be crushed. Crackpots or not, gymnasium, heated for a Hollow Earth. Once found – and this they are a fascinating bunch, and will indoor swimming ” is where it starts to no doubt entertain us for decades to pool and sauna. Views get interesting - they come, with or without a hole. . are excellent from would travel up the the Navigation Bridge (where we are Hiddekel River to the City of Jehu, take almost always welcome) and there are a monorail trip to the City of Eden and large open decks on several levels. The visit the Palace of the King of the Inner Yamal also has a good polar library and World. a small infirmary. European master If they were unable to find the Polar About the author: chefs present an excellent and varied opening, their fall-back position would Tim Mendham is executive international menu with fine provisions be to return via the New Siberian officer and editor with from around the world. A combination Islands to visit skeleton remains of Australian Skeptics Inc. 33 FEATURE The Earth THE END IsNigh-ish

A 2014 Public Religion Research Institute survey of adult Americans found that 49% of those polled believe we are in the end times. Bob Carroll puts it in context.

oomsday is the day the world for as long as these books have been Some of the most active doomsayers D as we know it ends. It is a day around. of our time are followers of the of colossal catastrophe, devastating Some doomsayers, however, are a bit Abrahamic religions and believe that destruction, extinction, and more parochial and associate doomsday prior to judgment day there will annihilation. A doomsday cult is a with massive destruction only in their be a great battle. Many Christians group of people led by a charismatic little part of the world. believe the final war will occur at character who has convinced them Armageddon between the forces of that the end is near. A doomsayer good, led by Abraham’s god, and the is somebody for whom the signs of forces of evil, led by Satan. It is likely catastrophe and imminent calamity are that no spectators will be allowed at ubiquitous. Armageddon (so you better pick your Some associate doomsday with side now), which is said to be located the end of the universe and a day in modern Israel. How billions of of judgment by some mighty being people will fit into this tiny space is a who dwells outside of the universe mystery that I’m sure theologians have and occupies no space. The good will worked out to the satisfaction of their be rewarded for being good and the undemanding clients. evil will be punished for being evil. Doomsday has been predicted Since most people are a mixture of many times by many prophets. both, no matter how you define these Obviously, so far they’ve all been terms, it could get messy. The religious wrong, which lowers the odds that doomsayers usually refer to a sacred any given prophecy that the world book that contains cryptic prophecies will end on some specific date will about the end of the world. Various come true. Some, like the Jehovah’s books of the Bible, for example, have Witnesses, have been wrong so many been sources of end-times speculation times that they’ve quit making specific 34 The Skeptic March 18

God or Nibiru? Harold Camping chose God to THE END end the word, and spent $100m saying so. IsNigh-ish

a certain way. 5 39 members of a UFO cult known as February 1962 was ’s Gate committed suicide as such a day and a condition for preparing themselves seers such as Jeanne for transport on a space-alien craft to Dixon predicted another world. predictions, but they’re still warning the end of the world would occur David Morrison, Senior Scientist us that the end is near. Not to worry; then. 10 March 1982 was supposed to of the NASA Astrobiology Institute, there are plenty of others who continue be a day of devastating earthquakes, has been responding to those who to howl that the end is near. A recent according to John Gribbin and Stephen fear the cries of the doomsayers on example is the Strong City cult led Plagemann in The Jupiter Effect. the NASA-sponsored website “Ask an by Michael Travesser (aka Wayne Another day for planetary alignment Astrobiologist”. He fields queries such Bent), who claims he is the messiah and predicted mass destruction on as the following: and predicted the world would end at Earth was 5 May 2000. Richard Noone Q. Is there a planet or brown dwarf midnight on 31 October 2007. took advantage of people’s fears to called Nibiru or Eris that is approaching Another recent example of a failed exploit that date in his the Earth and doomsday prediction is that of Harold book 5/5/2000 Ice: the threatening Camping, a self-styled expert in the Ultimate Disaster. “ The JWs have been our planet with scriptures who told his followers that Doomsday cults wrong so many times widespread his interpretations of the Bible had have also been destruction? uncovered the true date of the end of associated with UFOs that they’ve quit making A. No: Nibiru and the world: 21 May 2011. Camping, and aliens who are specific predictions. other stories about who has made millions promoting to take followers to ” wayward planets his religious ideas on Family Radio, another planet while are an Internet spent more than $100 million on Earth is destroyed. In the 1950s, . There is no factual basis for these a worldwide advertising campaign Marian Keech led such a cult. When claims, and most of them (such as that proclaiming Judgment Day. the world didn’t end and their space Nibiru has been hiding behind the Sun Not all those who claim to know ship didn’t arrive to take them away, or that it will be visible to the naked when the end will come are motivated Keech told her followers that their eye from the southern hemisphere next by supernatural signs, however. Some faith had saved both them and the year) are ludicrous. Eris is real, but it is predict massive destruction will come world. Nice touch. Not all doomsday a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will to Earth when the planets align in cults end so sweetly, however. In 1997, remain in the outer solar system; the 0335 FEATURE The Earth

The End is Every time a new prediction of the the world would end. The story can’t end is made, numbers of people fall be true, some think, because Newton Nigh-ish in line and are oddly filled with joy at liked to work alone, or rather nobody the thought of the fearsome events to liked to work with him. I don’t know Continued... come. As Morrison notes, some people if the story is true, but it illustrates a want the world to end and they “are universal trait about human beings: a upset to be told that this catastrophe fascination with our origins and our closest it can come to Earth is about 4 will not happen” ultimate demise. By the billion miles. (Morrison 2008). This way, the universe was The Niburu hoax has been linked joy at the thought of You might want created at midnight on by some doomsayers with the Old the world ending is “ 23 October 4004 BCE Testament (and they have photos evident in the youthful to think twice before and will end on 23 to prove it!) and by others with the enthusiasm for the scaring your children October 1996. Bishop belief that the ancient Maya predicted event exhibited by into thinking the end Ussher calculated that that the world would end in 2012. Strong City members Adam and Eve were The Maya, however, knew as little and in the partying is at hand .” driven from Paradise about our planet’s future demise as that went on by the on 10 November 4004 Gordon-Michael Scallion, St Malachy, followers of Joseph BCE, only a couple of Edgar Cayce, Zecharia Sitchin, or Kibweteere in Uganda before they were weeks after being created. You don’t Nostradamus, all of whom falsely burned to death after the world failed believe it? Then, you probably didn’t predicted colossal catastrophes for our to end as predicted on the eve of the see the world end in 1996. planet. The world is no more likely to year 2000. Similar jubilation mixed end when the Mayan calendar ends with fear was seen in medieval Europe SCIENCE AND SUPERSTITION than it is likely to end when a modern as the year 1000 approached. Some Until recently, if we wanted to explain calendar hits 31 December. Christians, called millenarians, are our origin or our ultimate demise, we particularly drawn to round were restricted to creating about numbers in the thousands the beginning and end of our species. based on an arbitrary ‘0’ For thousands of years, we could only starting point. They make guess at where we came from and some weird associations. where we were going to end up. “For Sometimes the links to 160,000 years, superstition held Homo the temporal world can sapiens captive,” as Bob Park puts it in be tortuous to say the Superstition: Belief in the Age of Science. least. A common theme Science has emerged only in the last on the fringes of Christian few hundred years. millenarianism is a revived Now, thanks to Charles Darwin and Roman Empire led by the others we have a pretty good idea of Antichrist and consisting of where we came from. Thanks to many 10 European nations. The physicists and astronomers, we have a theme is drawn out from pretty good idea of how it’s probably the description of a beast going to end. Superstitious myths with 10 horns in the book about our origins and ultimate demise of Revelation. still abound among the religious and There is a story, perhaps anti-scientific secularists, but they do apocryphal, that the great little damage to the progress of science. scientists Isaac Newton Those doing science either reject (1643-1727) and Robert the religious myths of our ancestral Boyle (1627-1691) storytellers as products of creative belonged to different Bible- minds that tried to understand the reading groups while both universe using little more than their resided in London. At one imaginations and the feedback they end of town, Newton was got from equally ignorant folks sitting trying to calculate the exact around a campfire, or they have figured The Cold War was a key ingredient in non- moment of creation, while at the other out a way to interpret the myths to religious Doomsday scenarios - it was the Bomb end of town Boyle and his group were make them seem compatible with that would finish us off. working on calculating the exact day modern science. Those who attempt to 36 The Skeptic March 18

The plain of Megiddo in northern Israel - the site of Armageddon? Ask the scientists who set up the Doomsday Clock in 1947. force modern science into the mould of their religious myths are not doing science and are little more than a constant nuisance. (Mythmakers still sit around the campfire telling tales to their ignorant audiences. Some of these mythmakers are as ignorant as their camp followers. Some are scientists trying to lure camp followers to donate money to their implausible or impossible projects, like the free energy hucksters. They call it an investment, but it’s a donation. I think Bob Park said that.) Many myths report doomsday events, but they usually provide no way to test their claims. If they do, the claims don’t stand up to scientific scrutiny. When scientists claim that there have already been doomsday events on Earth, such as being hit with a giant meteoroid some 65 million years ago, they produce evidence and counter-evidence, and argue until the claim is either rejected or accepted by the majority of those in the field. When scientists tell us that we could get hit again by another huge object from , we take them seriously and do not wonder if their revelation came from an all-knowing being from the Great Beyond. In fact, there have been several mass extinctions of species (more than 99 per cent of all the species that have ever existed on Earth are extinct). We indefinitely. We could blow up the to be unmoved by the enormous could be rendered extinct from solar planet with nuclear bombs. amount of scientific data available to flares, gamma ray bursts, super novae, The odds of any of these things anyone truly interested in the end of or black holes, to name just a few of happening are small, but they are not the universe. Instead, when an event the ways nature could get rid of us. impossible. Whether you should worry seems to them like an end-time event Our whole galaxy could be swallowed about them is up to you. But you might — such as the terrorist attacks on the up by some other galaxy. We could be want to think twice before scaring your World Trade Center and the Pentagon blasted by another huge meteoroid. children into thinking that the end is on 11 September 2001, or the collapse We could see our species depleted to at hand. One plausible scenario is that of world banking in October 2008 the (metaphorical) Adam and Eve stage our sun dies and the planet becomes a — they turn to the Bible or someone from a massive plague caused by the frozen mass some five billion years from like Nostradamus for guidance. There release of some mighty microbe or by now. Nobody will be around to observe have always been people who see massive poisoning of our air, water, it, however, since all life on Earth will catastrophic events as signs that the end and food as globalization leads to have been extinguished millions or is near, yet an understanding of history universal deregulation of all industries billions of years earlier. and science should console us: every in an attempt to expand world markets Most end-times doomsayers seem generation has seen catastrophic events, 37 FEATURE The Earth

The End is of all things human about to come. FALSE PROPHETS OF DOOM Their joy turned to sadness, however, The continued popularity of Nigh-ish when, in 1666, their hero travelled doomsday beliefs is illustrated by the to Constantinople and was arrested. popularity of the Left Behind series of Continued... His messianic nature was challenged books and films, based on a Biblical and it wasn’t long before he converted interpretation that involves something to Islam. As is always the case when called the rapture. Millions of copies of some generated by nature and some a prophet or messiah is shown to the novels have been sold. And despite generated by our fellow human beings. be wrong, the faith of some of his the preposterous nature of the belief, There has never been a time when followers became even stronger. They millions of people apparently expect to things weren’t uncertain and dangerous rationalised that the conversion was have their bodies separated from their for human groups, from families to part of Sabbatai’s clothes and jewellery tribes to nations. messianic plan to as they are teleported bring Jews to Islam to some supernatural SAVIOURS or Islam to Jews dimension. Associated with some doomsday beliefs or maybe both. As noted above, is the notion that before the end comes He was eventually however, not all some sort of saviour will arrive to warn banished and doomsayers are everybody. These saviours have been died alone in religious prophets. many, but the best-known is Jesus of Montenegro. Even Some look to science Nazareth (or Bethlehem) known as so, there are people as the likely cause of the Christ and Saviour to a billion or alive today who the end of the world. so Christians. Jesus seems clearly to await Sabbatai’s I grew up during have taught that the end of the world second coming. the so-called Cold and the Second Coming was at hand. In the War, when the United That was 2000 years ago. Some are nineteenth States and the former still waiting for the messiah. In the century, the tried to meantime, several messiahs have come Baptist preacher outpace each other and gone. William Miller in developing nuclear In the seventeenth-century, for (1782–1849) weapons. What began example, it was widely believed in said the world as a race to develop England that the end of the world was would end on 22 the most powerful at hand. One of the leading rabbis October 1844. weapons of mass of the time and a teacher of Spinoza, Miller is credited with being the destruction in history gradually gave Menasseh Ben Israel, let it be known inspiration behind the Adventist way to a philosophical position known that 1666 was the year the messiah movement of the 1830s and 1840s in as nuclear deterrence. Even though would come. According to tradition, North America and other movements both sides eventually had enough before that could happen the Jews that emphasised Biblical prophecy. weapons to destroy our species many had to be spread to the “four corners Being wrong is rarely considered times over, neither side would use of the earth”. Ben Israel convinced a fault by the faithful. Miller’s its weapons because to do so meant Cromwell to let the Jews back into followers called the failure of the extinction for them as well. Now the England on these grounds. Perhaps world to end as predicted “The Great great fear is that nuclear material will he hinted to the megalomaniacal Disappointment”. A Millerite named get into the hands of terrorists or a Cromwell that he himself was the Hiram Edson wrote: “Our fondest rogue nation like Iran, which might chosen one. In any case, several people hopes and expectations were blasted, use the weapon against Israel. Some announced they were the messiah, but and such a spirit of weeping came end-times doomsayers might long for we’ll mention just one: Sabbatai Zevi over us as I never experienced before. such a day, because they believe that (1626-1676?). ... We wept, and wept, till the day Israel will be the site of the last battle According to another Jewish dawn.” Miller thought there might be on Earth, at Armageddon, mentioned mystical tradition, the year of doom some error in the Biblical chronology, above. was predicted to be 1648, the year but he never gave up his belief that In fact, despite the widespread Sabbatai announced his messianic the Second Coming was imminent. destruction terrorists or Iran might nature. His power grew as more and He wanted to keep that happy cause, it is unlikely that they will bring more Jews and Christians joined in thought alive, as does preacher Ronald about the end of the world. In any the chorus singing the praises of the Weinland, who predicted the world case, if they do, the irony will be that new messiah and the glorious end would end in 2010. the only reason some obscure passage 38 The Skeptic March 18

William Miller (below) and the Millerites called the failure of the world to end “The Great Disappointment”.

in one book of the Bible had anything some people’s lives to do with the end of the world is that seem worthless some people, in their zest for the end unless they can die of life on Earth, hastened the event by and live some other rationalising that their bad behaviour sort of existence was God’s will. in a dream world A recent example of the belief populated by spirits that science will bring about the who spend eternity end of the world concerns the Large worshipping their Hadron Collider (LHC), buried in the maker. I think we mountains on the Swiss/French border. can safely ignore Before it was turned on, some non- the religious end- scientists feared it would create a black times doomsayers. hole that would devour us. A lawyer in The same can’t Hawaii named Walter Wagner sounded be said for all those the alarm. According to Bob Park, who warn us of impending doom if scientists and other informed people Wagner “read far too much science we don’t change our ways. Some of regarding these controversial issues. fiction as a youth” and “fantasises our behaviours may turn out to lead to Any action taken will have to be that he is a physicist by virtue of an truly catastrophic destruction of our based on probability and carry with it undergraduate biology degree with planet and our species. Nobody can some degree of uncertainty. We need a minor in physics”. Wagner worries see that far into the future, however, fear being wrong much less than we that the LHC is “a doomsday machine to know for certain which of the need fear having ideas stifled because that ... is posed to destroy the world doomsayers are right. We should be they don’t fit with someone’s political by creating a black hole”. How? By able to weed out the Chicken Littles agenda. We may make the right smashing particles into one another. like Richard Noone and Walter decisions for the wrong reasons, but Scientists aren’t too worried, since Wagner rather easily and without that hope is not a principle the future nature has been smashing particles much controversy. of our planet should depend on. . into one another on Earth and on The task is more difficult when the Moon for billions of years with evaluating the claims of those NOTE:This article is reprinted from the much greater energy than the LHC who see a future of catastrophic Skeptics Dictionary (www.skepdic.com). can muster. So far no black holes have destruction from climate change, occurred on either the Earth or the genetic engineering, various forms Moon, and last I checked, both were of pollution, or depletion of natural still floating in space with one orbiting resources. We have to be careful of About the author: the other. the from consensus Dr Bob Carroll was author Some people think that the viewpoints, as well as of contrarian of The Skeptics Dictionary, attraction of doomsday thoughts is claims masquerading as significant and an investigator of linked to the desire to find meaning objections to the consensus. There will controversial beliefs for and significance in life. Apparently, never be universal consensus among 50 years. He died in 2016. 39 ARTICLE Health

Mandy-Lee Noble puts a trend in genetic testing under the microscope.

t is the gene that is too much of simple: there is no clinical benefit to efficiently. Imouthful to pronounce, with MTHFR testing or treatments based For the most part, genetic variation an acronym that almost requires on individual MTHFR status. is a positive thing and genetic censorship. In this article we look at who variation actually makes a species In Australia, the genetic test for is recommending MTHFR gene more robust. In humans, gene changes variance in the MTHFR gene is testing and the advice and treatments are common and often not associated recommended by alternative and some that are being offered to those with disease. Another example of a conventional health practitioners who test positive for a MTHFR genetic polymorphism is the ABO to individuals hoping to find a polymorphism. More importantly, blood group system. more sophisticated answer to their we explore the connection between The MTHFR enzyme functions health issues. The Medicare Benefits MTHFR gene testing and quackery extensively throughout the body. Schedule (MBS) provides a rebate for about diet, supplements and Therefore, it is no surprise that the the MTHFR gene test to those who vaccination. discovery of the C677T and A1298C meet broad eligibility criteria. Others variants over 20 years ago (Kang et al, can self-fund the test. It is relatively WHAT IS MTHFR? 1991) led to a great deal of research inexpensive and does not require a GP MTHFR is an acronym for the into the many potential implications or specialist referral. More often than methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase of suboptimal MTHFR enzyme not the results are interpreted without gene. The MTHFR gene codes for the activity. qualified genetic counselling. Those MTHFR enzyme which is involved in In summary, the research has who test positive to having a variant the metabolism of folate to methyl- shown that MTHFR status does MTHFR gene folate. not strongly predict susceptibility to also known as a Methyl-folate performs many disease (Hickey, Curry, & Toriello, polymorphism, functions in the body including 2013). So, for those with less efficient which would the regulation of other genes MTHFR enzyme activity the advice be more than through the regulation is no different to current dietary 50 per cent of of DNA replication and guidelines; eat plenty of foods high Australians, are maintenance. The MTHFR in folate (green leafy vegetables, then targeted for gene has a large number of grains, lentils, and beans). For women non-evidenced variants but the C677T and planning pregnancy, supplement with based health advice A1298C polymorphisms folic acid pre-conception and in early and supplements. are the most common. A pregnancy, to reduce the risk of neural The positions MTFHR gene with one tube defects (Department of Health, of leading health or more polymorphisms 2013). organisations on still produces the The research does not demonstrate MTHFR testing is MTHFR enzyme, just less any harm to those with a MTHFR 40 The Skeptic March 18

polymorphism from eating a basic google search of folate fortified foods, taking folic MTHFR to fall down a acid supplements or that other ‘rabbit hole’ of health advice forms of folate supplements are from a variety of sources. The preferable (Levin & Varga, 2016). following three are areas of Supplementation with folic acid has significant concern but by no been shown to increase folate levels, means an exhaustive list. regardless of MTHFR status (NSW Health, 2016). FOLIC ACID SUPPLEMENTATION PROMOTING MTHFR TESTING Some advocates of the MTHFR gene testing cycles through MTHFR gene test advise the media on a relatively frequent that folate in the form of basis. Examples include an article in folic acid is harmful to those The Herald Sun published in March with a variant MTHFR 2015 (Black), in which a woman gene. This includes folate fortified of Nutrition and Dietetics there is and her GP attributed her recovery foods such as breads and cereals and insufficient evidence to modify folate from mental illness to MTHFR standard folic acid supplements. intake from that provided by current related treatments. The ABC’s Radio Women who are planning pregnancy dietary guidelines in those who have National Baby Talk program in are warned that having a MTHFR a MTHFR polymorphism (Camp & February 2016 (Johnston), featured polymorphism and taking standard Trujillo, 2014). Sydney naturopath Carolyn Ledowsky folic acid supplements may increase whose clinic MTHFR the risk of their child VACCINATION Support claims to being diagnosed with The claim that having a MTHFR address health issues Ledowsky makes Autism Spectrum polymorphism increases the risk associated with “ Disorder. of vaccine injury is an exaggerated MTHFR genetic anti-vaccination For those who version of standard anti-vaccination polymorphisms. webinars available on have a MTHFR claims. The assertion is that having Even Mamamia ran the MTHFR Support polymorphism a MTHFR polymorphism further an article featuring a very expensive increases supposed susceptibility MTHFR testing website .” natural form of to aluminium, polysorbate and on May 2016, and folate supplement formaldehyde found in vaccinations in an article in The is recommended. due to a reduced ability to Australian (June 10, 2016) columnist ‘Conveniently’ these supplements ‘detoxify’. Non-evidenced based Ruth Ostrow described MTHFR are often sold by the practitioner recommendations regarding MTHFR variance (sic) “as a common mutation who has recommended the MTHFR status and vaccination include: avoid but seriously damaging”. test. However, the research does not all or some vaccinations, follow a Although some of these articles support these claims and in Australia delayed immunisation schedule; or did attempt to provide ‘balance’ by folic acid added to wheat flour for follow a detoxification regime when including interviews with actual bread-making purposes has reduced vaccinating. does experts, equal air time or print space the incidence of neural tube defects by not support any of these claims. does not adequately represent the 14 per cent in the general population Ledowsky takes the recommend- consensus of evidence-based scientific and by 74 per cent in indigenous ation to avoid or reduce immunisation opinion on MTHFR gene testing. populations (AIHW, 2016). one step further by making anti- For the most part MTHFR testing vaccination webinars that are available is being recommended by naturopaths DIET on the MTHFR Support website. like Ledowsky (pictured above) who Beyond recommending the avoidance They provide Australian parents with advertises heavily to women who of folic acid fortified foods, those who information regarding the rights are planning for pregnancy. More test positive for a variant MTHFR to refuse immunise their child and concerning is that there are also some gene are frequently advised to go on resources to apply for an exemption GPs and dietitians who are advocating a gluten-free and casein-free diet. No from the “No Jab, No Pay” laws. for MTHFR testing while many more scientifically robust reason is given for To summarise the position of all GPs are obliging patients’ requests for this advice and such a change would leading health authorities including MTHFR gene testing. most likely reduce intake of folate in the American Heart Association, the For those who test positive for addition to many other important American Congress of Obstetricians MTHFR variance, it only takes nutrients. According to the Academy and Gynecologists and the American 41 ARTICLE Health

299–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. the Logical Place The MTHFR jand.2013.12.001 Hickey, S. E., Curry, C. J., & Toriello, H. Continued... Denying the antecedent V. (2013). ACMG practice guideline: enying the antecedent is a Lack of evidence for MTHFR Din formal logic where in a standard polymorphism testing. Genetics in if/then premise, the antecedent (what College of Medical Genetics and Medicine, 15(2), 153–156. https://doi. comes after the ‘if’) is made not true, Genomics (Moll & Varga, 2015), org/10.1038/gim.2012.165 Human then it is invalidly concluded that the as well as our own Royal Australian Genetics Society of Australasia. consequent (what comes after the College of General Practitioners (Long (2017). Top 5 low-value practices ‘then’) is not true. The fallacy confuses & Goldblatt, 2016), Human Genetics and interventions. Retrieved from the directionality of logical relationships. Society of Australasia (HGSA, 2017) https://evolve.edu.au/published- The structure of the fallacy takes the and The Royal College of Pathologists lists/human-genetics-society-of- following form: of Australasia (RCPA, 2013), there australasia If P, then Q. is no reason to recommend MTHFR Johnston, P. (2016). MTHFR.. Not P. gene testing. By providing a referral and a gene you may never have heard of.. Retrieved from Therefore, not Q. for a MTHFR gene test GPs are http://www.abc.net.au/local/ Because this structure does not state legitimising the claim that knowing stories/2016/02/18/4407565.htm that Q is exclusively a condition of P, it your MTHFR status has benefits for Levin, B. L., & Varga, E. (2016). MTHFR: is invalid to deduce that Q is not true health, essentially opening the gate for Addressing Genetic Counseling if P is not true. In most cases, there are non-evidenced based and potentially harmful health advice. Dilemmas Using Evidence-Based other reasons that Q could be false. One . Literature. Journal of Genetic way to demonstrate the invalidity of this Counseling, 25(5), 901–911. https:// argument form is with a counterexample doi.org/10.1007/s10897-016-9956-7 with true premises but an obviously Long, S., & Goldblatt, J. (2016). MTHFR false conclusion. For example: About the author: genetic testing: Controversy and If it is raining, then the grass is wet. Mandy-Lee Noble is an clinical implications. Australian It is not raining. independent dietitian/ Family Physician, 45(4), 237–240. Therefore, the grass is not wet. nutritionist based in https://doi.org/https://dx.doi.org/ The conclusion is invalid because Queensland. 10.1111/mec.13956 there are other reasons why the grass Moll, S., & Varga, E. A. (2015). could be wet at the time (someone Homocysteine and MTHFR could have watered it). To give another REFERENCES mutations. Circulation, 132(1), example: Australian Institute of Health and e6–e69. https://doi.org/10.1161/ Any person who is hopping on one Welfare. (2016). Decrease in neural CIRCULATIONAHA.114.013311 foot, must be alive. tube defects since folic acid added Ostrow, R. ((2016). Depression, A sleeping person is not hopping on to bread. Retrieved from https:// lethargy, thyroid disease and the one foot. www.aihw.gov.au/news-media/ art of asking the right questions. Therefore, all sleeping people are media-releases/2016/2016-jun/ Retrieved from https://www. dead. decrease-in-neural-tube-defects- theaustralian.com.au/life/health- An implication for skepticism is since-folic-acid-a wellbeing/depression-lethargy- that quacks and conspiracy theory Black, E. (2015). How I beat my thyroid-disease-and-the-art- sometimes use this fallacy in their 10-year battle with anxiety after of-asking-the-right-questions/ propaganda, for example: discovering folinic acid. Retrieved news-story/b3bd8969e50e546166e If pharmaceutical companies were from http://www.heraldsun.com. 7164d5102299f always honest, then we could trust drug X. au/lifestyle/health/how-i-beat-my- The Royal College of Pathologists of Pharmaceutical companies are not 10year-battle-with-anxiety-after- Australasia. (2013). MTHFR Genetics always honest, discovering-folinic-acid/news-story Tests: a Position Statement of the Therefore, we cannot trust drug X. /71d1e10b1eb190d212e338dd18f Royal College of Pathologists of Recognising and exposing such a aadad Australasia, (March 2002), 1–2. denial of the antecedent could be help- Camp, K. M., & Trujillo, E. (2014). ful to skeptics in our debates against our Position of the academy of opponents. nutrition and dietetics: Nutritional - by Tim Harding genomics. Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, 114(2), 42 ARE YOU SKEPTICAL? Are reason, science, education, critical thinking and common sense important to you? Then you should subscribe to The Skeptic.

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Send to: The Skeptic PO Box 20, Ph: (02) 8094 1894 —Mobile: 0432 713 195 Beecroft, NSW 2119 Fax: (02) 8088 4735—email: [email protected] ARTICLE Classic Catch–Religion

Should T h e S k e p t i c s Tackle Religion In this Classic Catch, we look back at a debate from the Skeptics Annual Convention of 1990, with Barry Williams presenting the view that the Skeptics should not tackle relgion.

he primary aim of Australian TSkeptics is to “investigate claims of pseudoscientific, paranormal and similarly anomalous phenomena, from a responsible, scientific point of view”. That is a worthwhile purpose, we do it well and it is what I believe we should continue to do. Among pleasure of investigating religion per Does it mean that we should the things we do not do are the se, considering that it lies outside investigate the fundamental beliefs investigation of shonky car dealers, the ambit of our published aims. I and dogmas of religions? Does it economic predictions, ordinary (non- believe that we do this for very good mean that we should investigate paranormal) confidence tricksters, reasons both from a philosophical, specific claims made by people, in the political promises, advertising and more especially from a pragmatic name of religion? hyperbole, or any of the myriad standpoint, as this paper shall seek to I believe that we can dispose of the other dubious claims, or claimants, demonstrate. first two options very quickly. at large in the community. While Let us first consider what is meant these areas are undoubtedly worthy by the phrase “tackling religion”. SOCIAL ISSUES of investigation, there are other At what level is it suggested that Religion, as a social or psychological organisations which deal with such we tackle it? Does it mean that we phenomenon is and always has been, matters, and no doubt they do it a should investigate religion as a social a fertile field of study for social great deal better than we could. phenomenon? Does it mean that scientists. There is no doubt that, As a general statement of purpose, we should investigate the mundane throughout human history, people we have always eschewed the practices of religious organisations? have involved themselves in religious 44 The Skeptic March 18

practices and, I strongly suspect, are the only species, as far as we know, Gods are invented to explain those people always will. In this context, which has the certain knowledge of its things we do not understand. As we the impulse to religion is a bit like own mortality. That is no easy burden learn more about the natural world masturbation; if it did not satisfy to bear, regardless of how rationally we inhabit, then our cultural gods some real need within the human we may like to view the world. Little are forced further into the realms species, then it is unlikely that so many wonder then that the majority of of mysticism. “God of the gaps” is people would indulge in it. That aside, religions have, as a fundamental tenet a term which I believe is applied to there is nothing pseudoscientific or of their beliefs, some form of survival this phenomenon. To the Norse, paranormal about the phenomenon of of the death of the corporeal body. Thor with his hammer was a perfectly religion. Much as some skeptics might Whether this survival is in a spiritual reasonable explanation for thunder regret it, religion is an all too normal form in some sort of ‘paradise’ as but it is unlikely to be given much human activity. many religions hold, or whether it is credence by a modern meteorologist. The second option, the mundane accomplished through , A great flood which covered the whole practices of religions, are equally as others assert, very little in the way world and from which an elite group outside our terms of reference. Many of testable evidence is ever offered in was rescued by their deities, may have skeptics may consider practices support of the proposition. More of meant something to the Babylonian such as compulsory celibacy, which later. citizens of a riverine culture but it fasting, circumcision, ordination or The existence of deities is a further is not sustainable in the light of our non-ordination of women, ritual common factor in many, though not present knowledge. cannibalism or whatever, as being all, religions. The evolution of deities curious, or even outrageous, but they matches the evolution of human THEOLOGICAL ISSUES are not paranormal or pseudoscientific societies. Our tribal ancestors had a Which gets me back to my point activities. To an objective observer, simple, animistic religion in which of departure into the thickets of the rituals of religious organisations spirits controlled every animal, object theological speculation. Most are no more peculiar than are those of and natural phenomenon. These Australians (around 85 per cent is the football clubs, political parties or any spirits were used to explain almost figure I have seen), when asked the of the other organisations in which everything that happened and were question, “Do you believe in God?” people involve themselves. very personal to the people. will answer “Yes”. [That number had That religious organisations attract As civilisation developed, these dropped to 70 per cent in the 2016 to themselves certain privileges, natural spirits also became more census. – Ed.] When called upon to bestowed by the body politic, and formalised into the polytheistic elucidate on that assertion, most of which are not available to other pantheons of such cultures as the them, at least in my experience, retreat organisations, is a matter of concern Egyptians, Greeks, into mumbles and to many skeptics. I agree with that Romans and Norse The rituals of religious scratchings of the concern but religious organisations (and, of course, “ toes in the dirt. are not alone in attracting privileges, many others). organisations are no Believers in gods, which also apply to sporting These gods did not more peculiar than those to a very large organisations, trades unions, service inhabit individual degree, will not (or organisations and many others. They items but tended to of footbal clubs. cannot) tell you the are likely to continue to do so while be associated with ” mass, temperature, politicians perceive that there are somewhat more volume, pressure, votes in it. Therefore, to address these abstract concepts, such as the state, viscosity, reflectivity, colours, or problems requires political activity, or war, or love, or the family. They indeed any other physical attribute which also lies outside the ambit of the were more formalised than the nature of their god. If, as seems likely, gods Skeptics’ aims. spirits but nonetheless retained some are without physical attribute then personalised attributes. they are in fact abstract concepts and, PARANORMAL ISSUES Finally we reach the stage of as such, are no more testable in a Next, we must address an area that having a ‘world’ god, responsible “responsible, scientific manner” than lies quite clearly in the realm of the for everything that happens, or has are such other abstract concepts as paranormal; the fundamental beliefs happened. Many people claim to love or beauty. of religions. To approach this subject, have personal relationships with such I suspect that there are as many we must consider just what it is we are deities but it is, to my mind at least, a perceptions of “god” as there are discussing. claim that is impossible to sustain at people doing the perceiving. Stephen There seems to be no doubt that we, any level of the intellect. Hawking, in a recent TV program, is the human species, have a great need In this fleeting brush with the quoted as saying that if God represents for certainty in our lives and that we history of deism, one trend is obvious. all the underlying natural laws of the 0345 ARTICLE Classic Catch–Religion

Skeptics Should what does theological speculation It has never been the case that achieve? To a large extent, theological those who make dubious, but testable, Tackle Religion debates resolve themselves into ever claims can cloak themselves in some Continued... more esoteric rehashings of old sort of mystical shield called “religion” arguments, without ever reaching any and thus avoid the scrutiny of the sort of conclusion. To my mind, the Skeptics. Claims made for the Turin universe, then he believes in God. legendary debate about how many Shroud, faith healing, and the sad joke I find that proposition difficult to angels could dance on the head of a that is Creation ‘science’ have always dispute. If God is used as a shorthand pin is one of the more serious examples been investigated by Skeptics and term for the underlying laws of nature, of theological argument. That may should continue to be so investigated. fair enough, but, if this pantheistic be a naive view of the topic, but I do Finally, let us get away from concept is accepted, it disposes of believe that if we were to adopt Rob’s the esoteric morass of theological any sort of personal god, which is views we would reduce Australian speculation altogether and rejoin the sure to antagonise the adherents of Skeptics to the status of a theological real world of newspapers, politicians, most religions. This sort of god does debating society, a fate which I believe football commentators, public not punish you for breaking its laws our organisation is far too valuable to relations consultants, economists, because there is no way in which you deserve and a regression that I, for one, and fashion designers. This is the area can break them. You can of course would find most distressing. that someone has cleverly referred to be punished for attempting to break as the “marketplace of ideas” and it is the laws as anyone who steps off TESTABLE ISSUES in this marketplace that we skeptics the top of a very tall structure will This brings me to my final option. have to sell our wares. Our “product” quickly discover. The same applies to Should we investigate specific claims, is rational thinking and that is not surviving death. Of course, we all do made by people, in the name of necessarily an easy product to sell. survive death, in the sense that our religion? To this question, there can constituent atoms do not cease to be only one answer, “Yes”. That is CONFRONTATION ISSUES exist, just because we cease to breathe, precisely what we have always done. In Australian Skeptics is operating in but this is not very satisfactory as a broad terms, every paranormal claim is this marketplace and has, through the religious concept. made in some sort of religious context. efforts of our quite small membership, Which is all a rather long-winded The believers in astrology, , developed a reputation as a responsible way of getting to my point that, while et al clearly believe what they believe organisation. Where once we had to the fundamental beliefs of religions as an act of faith. Their beliefs are fight for recognition, now our views may well be paranormal, their very updated versions of primitive animist are sought, particularly by the media. lack of specificity leaves us with no religious concepts. However, the One of the reasons for this state of sensible way in which we can test adherents of these beliefs do make affairs is that we have denied ourselves them. testable claims and those claims can the pleasure of being dogmatically and We could indulge ourselves in long, be, and are tested by skeptics and are raucously offensive to those whose and ultimately fruitless theological frequently shown to be baseless. The ideas we dispute. We are perceived debates, just as people have been same can be said of many claims that as being a tolerant, moderate, and doing for as long as they have been are made in a more directly religious reasonable organisation, capable of human, but we have to ask ourselves context. giving a sound, rational response to

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46 The Skeptic March 18

dubious claims. This is important in Let me conclude with an analogy wisp of seeking answers to the the ideas market, in which perceptions derived from a favourite pastime unanswerable. We would distract our count for a great deal. We have to sell of our species - war. Consider two attention from that which we do well - the concept of a rational, scientifically generals, neither of them particularly testing the testable. based view of the world to an audience engaging personalities, each in I believe that Australian Skeptics to which that view does not necessarily control of huge armies, each trying is far too valuable an organisation for come naturally. to win a war for their side. The us to debase our currency in this way. One way to make major difference I believe that what we do now makes the job harder is to between them was far too valuable a contribution to the alienate 85 per cent of their approach to life of our community for it be diluted your potential market the unpleasant by indulging in esoteric arguments we before you utter a job they had. are unlikely to win. I believe that we word. As I mentioned They also had will continue to be regarded as a voice earlier, around one other thing of reason while we continue to focus that percentage in common, the on that which we do best, calling into of Australians Better to encourage name Douglas. question dubious, testable claims and profess some sort “ Douglas Haig providing reasonable explanations. of belief in some a climate of critical thought that That is what we should continue sort of deity. It is thought in which they victory on the to strive for, not to be seen as some probably a reasonable will wither on the vine. Somme could niggling fringe group, with a pure speculation to say ” be achieved by philosophy and no audience. that more than half sending countless I am sure that all you rational of these people are men to their people will agree. . only nominally religious, functionally deaths, charging into massed machine- they are agnostic, however, one of the guns. Douglas MacArthur, for all his best ways to force a nominal member faults, was considerably less profligate About the author: of some religion to defend his loosely with the lives of the men under Barry Williams was, at various stages, president, held faith is to make a frontal attack his command. His island hopping editor and executive officer of on it. strategy in the Pacific, leaving large Australian Skeptics. He died There are other organisations whose garrisons of his enemy behind him earlier this year – his obituary main purpose is to tackle religion and out of reach of logistical support, can be found in this issue and, to be frank, they are very seldom undoubtedly saved many lives. of The Skeptic, a magazine heard from in public forums, while the I have no doubt that Australian he edited for close to two Skeptics’ views are very often heard in Skeptics will suffer if we insist on decades, and to which he those same forums. I believe this is so making frontal assaults on well- contributed on a grand scale. because we do not arrogate to ourselves entrenched opponents who hugely any concept of ideological purity but, outnumber us. Much better to instead maintain an attitude with encourage a climate of critical thought which any reasonable individual can in which they will wither on the identify. I doubt very much if we will vine, while never forgetting that advance our cause a millimetre by people have the right (and are likely adopting a stance of being “unholier to continue) to believe anything they than thou”. please, regardless of how foolish those Before you damn me as the ultimate beliefs may appear to us. unprincipled pragmatist, let me While I agree with many peoples’ suggest that, by promoting a general concerns about religion, to do as idea of scepticism in the areas we they suggest and attack religion do encompass, we are automatically will require that Australian Skeptics encouraging people to apply critical become a fundamentally different analysis to other areas of their lives as organisation from what it is now. well, be they religious or any other. We would become just another Critical thinking is a difficult concept player on the stage of sectarian to learn, but it does get easier with disputation, indulging in tendentious, practice. That is the practice we have and ultimately futile, theological always adopted and that is the practice speculation. We would waste our I believe we should continue to adopt. energies in chasing the will-o-the- 47 ARTICLE Psychic Detective The Blind

RichardSeer Saunders looks into a famous case of the disappearance of young children, and Australia’s baptism into the world of psychic detectives.

n 2017, Detective Chief Inspector home. Over half a century later imply foul play - he said the children I Gary Jubelin of the NSW Police the case of the Beaumont Children had died from an accidental -in Force made the point that “We’re remains one of Australia’s great after exploring some sort of . not interested in information from mysteries. Although several people The media picked up on the story clairvoyants or people that have suspected of abducting Jane, Arnna as the case was still fresh in the public’s dreams, what we’re interested and Grant have been flagged over the imagination and soon more and more in is people that have genuine years, the police, as far people were reading information.” as we know, are still no A salutary lesson about Croiset and He was speaking in reference closer to solving the “ his visions. The to the case of the disappearance of disappearance. in how latch newspapers labelled three-year-old William Tyrell in This case is also on to advantageous him as a “Seer” in the 2014. But his views, no doubt borne infamous in the situations. headlines that were to of long and frustrating experience, paranormal sphere ” come. The media were reflect on a much earlier case. as Australia’s most beside themselves as The tragedy of the missing publicised use of a so-called ‘psychic reports of new visions from Croiset Beaumont children was recently detective’. appeared in newspapers and magazines revisited with another fruitless search In the months following the such as The Australian Women’s Weekly. for their remains – more than 50 disappearance of the children, and Such was the fascination and years after their disappearance from with no progress being made in the hope in what this seer had to offer an Adelaide beach. case, a local Adelaide citizen Jan Van that it was soon organised, via the But the case is a salutary lesson in Schie wrote to fellow Dutchman sponsorship of property businessman how practitioners of the paranormal, Gerard Croiset who, by the early Con Polites, for Croiset to fly to and in particular psychics, latch 1960s, was claiming a reputation of Australia to search for the children in on to any potentially advantageous being able to help police in solving person. situation to spruik their wares. missing persons cases using his On the 26th of January 1966, “psychic visions”. Croiset replied, PSYCHIC SEARCHES a blazing hot day in Adelaide, stating he thought the children were Croiset arrived in Adelaide on the three children went for a day at dead and buried about 800m from the night of November 8, 1966, and the Glenelg beach and never came beach. However, his visions did not was greeted by hundreds of people 48 The Skeptic March 18

and media crews from TV, radio and The “Decision Awaited” refers to saying “Excavations of this area newspapers. It was front page news in talks held by the SA Premier Frank would be a waste of time, money The Advertiser the next morning which Walsh and the Deputy Commissioner and effort.” This news came as a reported the event as being “frantic”. of Police Geoffrey Leane to consider great disappointment to Polites and It is largely through reports in that what should be done. In the view of thousands who had followed the newspaper that we can piece together the police there was no reason and exploits of Croiset. Croiset’s activities over the next couple no real possibility the children could But the story was far from over. of days. be buried under the warehouse. On By early May 1967, a group calling From The Advertiser of November the 15th, State Cabinet decided not itself the Citizens’ Action Committee 10: “Tension - Yesterday was a day of to authorise excavations with Walsh had raised around $40,000 to fund a tension as he walked several miles and private excavation of the warehouse. drove many more through the streets Days of digging to a depth of up to and along the foreshore, spurred 15 feet at the spot chosen by Croiset onwards by his visions.” followed, but with no results. The report included a map of the places visited by Croiset, a detailed rundown of things like houses and other landmarks he had seen in visions, and quoting him saying he had a “very strong feeling” about the location of the children. However in reading these reports, one cannot escape the impression of someone just looking around streets at random, making notes and moving on ... followed by 20 members of the press. The next day brought a startling twist to the story. Croiset spent an hour interviewing a woman who claimed she heard the Beaumont children playing outside her house the day after they disappeared. She too had a vision and was convinced they were buried in a lot she once owned. All this was gold for newspaper copy. Eventually, however, Croiset rejected this woman’s vision. On the 12th, the front page of The Advertiser read “Croiset Picks Spot: Decision Awaited - Dutch Clairvoyant Gerard Croiset climaxed his two and a half hour search when he said yesterday that the Beaumont children were buried between 8 and 10 feet beneath the concrete floor of a newly built warehouse in Wilton Avenue, Paringa Park.” Crowds of people flocked to the site out of curiosity or anticipation of something being discovered. For Croiset, however, it was time to leave Adelaide to continue his trip to New York to give lectures. Before he left he paid a visit to the Beaumont parents. Mrs. Beaumont, at least, refused to believe her children were dead, despite Croiset’s visions. 49 ARTICLE Psychic Detective

The Blind Top to bottom: Gerard Croiset wanders the Seer streets of Adelaide, Continued... looking for clues; the beach near Glenelg where the Beaumont children disappeared; THE CONTINUING STORY Croiset (left) and Con We now travel to 1996, the 30th Polites (centre). anniversary of the disappearance and once again the warehouse was subject to another excavation, this time funded by Polites who after so long was still clinging onto the belief that KAK: And how Croiset was the real deal. Once again, helpful was that nothing was found. information to the In January 2018, over 50 years had police? passed but still there was the need for many to somehow prove the psychic AA: With the right. Police received information Granny Killers, of a possible burial site in another I told them four warehouse, some 5km away from the months before. The one in Wilton Avenue. In the days mistake I made, his leading up to the new dig, this time house was No. 18 conducted by police, the New Daily not 81. So I had the online ran the story with the angle address, the number that if the children were to be found in of the house back to this new location, “Croiset – dismissed front. by sceptics as a fraud at the time – might be at least partially vindicated.” KAK: So you Sadly no trace of the children was actually gave them found. the address? We can suspect that Gerard Croiset (who died in 1980), like so many AA: Yes! others over the years, truly believed he had psychic insights and was an aid to KAK: Wow! How investigations. Even today in Australia did the police take and throughout the world we can find that information? people claiming they “help police” via thinks, like Croiset did all those years their mystical powers. Some are even AA: I don’t know. When I’m getting ago, she does help police who I hope consulted by police who really should something, I just put it down and I would file her letters in the round filing know better, and this interaction only send it off. It’s for them, what they do cabinet. goes to reinforce the delusion held with it. It is worth mentioning that at the by the “psychic” who then goes on time of writing (Feb 2018), both the to state “I help the police” or “I have Of course, we only have her word Beaumont parents are still alive. Losing worked on so and so case”. But even if for it that she actually sent anything their children turned out to be a life they are never consulted by police, or to the police at all; she has no idea if sentence for them with no hope or help consulted on another matter, they can they even received it or read or acted coming from psychics. . still make the same claims. upon it in and in any case she sent A case in point is Ann Ann, a them a wrong number and we have no favourite of Woman’s Day magazine. In reason to suspect she gave them the 2004 she was interviewed on TV by right street name. Yet she has ‘visions’ About the author: Kerri-Anne Kennerley who asked her and goes around boasting she helps the Richard Saunders is chief what cases she had worked on: police, aided in this delusion by the investigator for Australian media who know this sort of story sells. Skeptics Inc, and producer and AA: Granny Killers and Backpacker. I’m sure in her own mind she really host of the Skeptic Zone. 50 REVIEWS Paranormal The Skeptic March 18

Out in the field Amateur paranormal investigators fall readily into this scene. Hill says, in the preface to her book, “Reports Scientifical Americans:The Culture of Amateur of paranormal phenomena are worthy of serious Paranormal Researchers research if only because they are so ubiquitous and influential in human experience. Whether By Sharon A. Hill the cause is in our minds or out of this world, McFarland & Company, A$27.19 (ebook format) paranormal experiences profoundly affect the people who have them.” Similarly the people who do the reporting haron Hill is the founder, and investigating of paranormal phenomena Smanager and chief author are worthy of investigating, not only because of of Doubtful News, an online what they discover, but also because of what compendium of news stories, makes them tick on a cultural and social level. with assessments, on all forms of Amateurs in paranormal fields have handicaps paranormal activity, with a soft-spot in scientific investigation – lack of qualifications for Bigfeet, unidentified blobs that and the inherent knowledge and experience with wash up on the seashore, and the proper that that entails, allied occasional ‘boom’ coming from the to a propensity to rush to judgement, and to depths of the oceans. overly rely on the notion of media balance to get While she has put her Doubtful coverage, and on conspiracy theories when they News activities on what might be a don’t get coverage. permanent hiatus, she has taken that Hill uses the term “scientifical” to “connote vast database of over 7000 items and the attempt to be scientific without achieving worked it into a book. it”. When discussing cryptozoologists (and It would have been tempting specifically hunters), she cites Brian (and certainly easier) for her just Regal’s 1999 book Searching for Sasquatch who to transfer that compendium to comments that what amateur cryptozoologists the printed page. An encyclopaedia of the lack in education, they make up for in paranormal from a skeptical perspective would enthusiasm, having a strong sense of identity and be interesting, though it would mirror what mission. Bob Carroll did in the Skeptics Dictionary, both Hill has given us a sociological as much as an online and in print. historical study of the nature and motivation of Instead she has taken a more selective those who take paranormal beliefs that one step approach, concentrating on the investigations further into investigation. In fact, most of the and investigators of the paranormal, and book looks at the nature of scientific method particularly those who spend their own time and and presentation, the public’s perception of money doing it – the amateurs. Not that there science, and the methods, technology and results are a lot of professional paranormal investigators, achieved by amateur paranormal investigators even with a growing market in teams of ghost in that context. There’s a brief discussion of hunters. But amateurs have always formed the the nature of skepticism and the investigators’ basis of paranormal research, as they have in attitude to it and use of it (as little as that might many other areas. be). In 1996, an editorial in Science journal This is a fascinating and serious study of proclaimed an end to amateur science: “Modern the phenomenon of the enthusiastic untrained science can no longer be done by gifted amateurs investigator in an area of unproven and often with a magnifying glass, copper wires, and jars dodgy evidence. Her enthusiasm for her subject filled with alcohol.” is as evident as the investigators’ overenthusiasm But they are not gone. Astronomy, is for theirs, except that hers is more scientific. palaeontology, archaeology, chemistry, not to Well worth a read.g. mention exploration, are replete with amateur researchers – self-funded, self-motivated - Reviewed by Tim Mendham and passionate about their field, sometimes misguided, sometimes misunderstood, sometimes ground-breaking, and often pilloried by the establishment scientific community. 51 REGULARS

The cycle of life THE SELF-UNAWARE Smart, stupid, letters, and words. The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in two principal ways: unskilled And so it goes, the almost inevitable individuals mistakenly rating their ability much realisation that all knowledge is higher than is accurate, and persons to whom a skill or set of skills come easily may find themselves with weak connected and connectable. self-confidence. The theory was developed by academics David Dunning and Justin Kruger while at Cornell University in their 1999 study “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence THE PLAY Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments”. They conclude that “the Hazlitt describes As You Like It miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about as the “most ideal” of any of the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent Shakespeare’s plays, where “wit runs riot stems from an error about others”. in idleness, like a spoiled child that is never sent to school”. He adds that it is a world of thought and imagination, not action: “It is not what is done, but what is said, that claims our attention.” And there are many well-known words. Probably the most famous quote from the play is “All the world’s a stage, And all the men and women merely players; They have their exits and their entrances; And one man in his time plays many parts, His acts being seven ages.” (Act 2, scene 7). But equally memorable is a quote from Act 5, scene 1: “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself What goes around ... to be a fool”, an early depiction of the Dunning-Kruger effect. THE BARD Hazlitt’s Characters of Shakespear’s Plays is an 1817 book of criticism. It was the first book to cover all of Shakespeare’s plays, intended as a guide for the general reader and, with the work of Coleridge, paved the way for the increased appreciation of Shakespeare’s genius that was characteristic of later nineteenth-century criticism. Hazlitt was particularly keen on the comedy As You Like It, describing it as one of the most quotable and quoted of Shakespeare’s plays: “There is hardly any of Shakespear’s plays that contains a greater number of passages that have been quoted in books of extracts, or a greater number of phrases that have William Shakespeare (assuming this is become in a manner proverbial.” him), a man of many words (assuming

they are his). Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

52 The Skeptic March 18

THE IGNORANT THE SELF-UNAWARE The inability to internalise accomplishments is The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive called “imposter syndrome” – those with the syndrome bias manifesting in two principal ways: unskilled remain convinced that they are frauds and do not deserve individuals mistakenly rating their ability much the success they have achieved. It may occur in people who are higher than is accurate, and persons to whom a skill or the beneficiaries of affirmative action who believe their skills were set of skills come easily may find themselves with weak not important in being hired. The cognitive bias that causes people to self-confidence. The theory was developed by academics overestimate their positive qualities and abilities and to underestimate David Dunning and Justin Kruger while at Cornell their negative qualities, relative to others, is referred to as “illusory University in their 1999 study “Unskilled and Unaware of It: superiority”. This is evident in a variety of areas including intelligence, How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence performance on tasks or tests, and the possession of desirable Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments”. They conclude that “the characteristics or personality traits. It applies to people who Dunning and Kruger looking miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about suffer from “ultracrepidarianism”. the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent confident. But where do they sit stems from an error about others”. on the D-K Effect graph?

THE COBBLER The term “ultracrepidarianism” is the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one’s knowledge. It was first publicly recorded in 1819 by the essayist William Hazlitt in a Letter to William Gifford, the editor of the Quarterly Review. The term draws from a famous comment purportedly made by Apelles, a Greek artist, to a shoemaker who presumed to criticise his painting. The Latin phrase “Sutor, ne ultra crepidam”, as set down What goes around ... by Pliny and later altered by other Latin writers to “Ne ultra crepidam judicaret”, can be taken to mean THE ESSAYIST that a shoemaker ought not to judge beyond his William Hazlitt (1778–1830) was an English own soles, or that cobblers should stick to writer, drama and literary critic, painter, social their last. commentator, and philosopher. He is considered one of the greatest critics and essayists in the history of the English language, however his work is currently little read and mostly out of print. During his lifetime he befriended many people who are now part of the 19th-century literary canon, including Stendhal, Samuel Taylor Coleridge, William Hazlitt, William Wordsworth, and John Keats. In his essay, “On friend of the famous the Ignorance of the Learned”, he said “If we wish to and in his time famous know the force of human genius, we should read Shakespeare. If we wish to see the insignificance himself, is not widely of human learning, we may study his read today. His last commentators.” words: “Well, I’ve had Source: Wikipedia, except where noted a happy life.”

53 FORUM Philosophy Philosophy & Science I In which readers respond to Gary Bakker’s article on rationalism, scientism and the benefits (or otherwise) of philosophy

n the last issue of The Skeptic(December Until only a few hundred years ago, science was I2017, pages 56-59), Gary Bakker criticises an also a branch of philosophy, known as “natural essay from the previous September issue by Tim philosophy”. Experimental scientific methods were Harding. This essay is headed “A Step Too Far”’ initially developed by the English philosophers (pages 32-35), and argues against the relatively Robert Grosseteste and Roger Bacon in the 13th recent advent of the ideology known as century, as explained in an essay by Harding in the scientism, which in a nutshell claims June 2016 issue of The Skeptic. Since the branching that science is the only legitimate off of science from philosophy, beginning around domain of objective knowledge. At the 17th century, philosophers have been quite several points, Tim’s essay cites happy to leave empirical observations and and quotes an earlier essay by experiments to the scientific domain. As such, James Fodor in the Australian any competition between philosophy and science Rationalist magazine exists only in the minds of scientism advocates. (December 2016, pages 32- The imagined competition stems from a lack of 35) titled “Not So Simple”, understanding of the nature of philosophy by which was also criticised by scientism advocates like Bakker. In particular, Bakker. That is why we have philosophy of science does not attempt to prepared this joint response to undermine or replace science, but rather seeks to Bakker’s article. understand the nature of science and how and why We think that it is incumbent it works as well as it does. on a critic to understand and In the present piece, we will critically analyse come to grips with what one is the arguments made by Bakker in his article. We criticising. A failure to do so is a recipe will begin with an examination of how Bakker for misrepresentation of the arguments one has misrepresented our arguments, and failed to is attempting to refute. In this case, Bakker has understand what we were actually arguing. We will not only misrepresented many of our positions then discuss three key issues raised by Bakker: how and arguments, but more fundamentally he moral and ethical questions should be resolved; has misrepresented the nature of the topics we the justification of science as ‘what works’; and are arguing about, including science, scientism, the notion that philosophy has never made any rationality and philosophy. contributions to human knowledge. In each case One of Bakker’s major misunderstandings we argue that not only does Bakker fail to provide seems to be about philosophy. To characterise convincing reasons for his contention, but also that philosophy as what happens at amateur he faces powerful objections that he fails to address. ‘philosophy cafes’ is disingenuous, highly In discussing each of these specific topics, we misleading and frankly absurd. It is like defining also hope to illustrate that the only way Bakker psychology as what is discussed in amateur pop could hope to respond to our objections is by psychology or self-help groups. engaging in philosophical argumentation, which Philosophy is a serious academic discipline would thereby critically undermine his main thesis which is taught at almost all of the world’s that such discourse has no value. leading universities. The main sub-fields of academic philosophy include logic, metaphysics, MISREPRESENTING OUR ARGUMENTS epistemology, ethics, aesthetics, political Throughout his article, Bakker consistently philosophy and the philosophy of science. While misstates and misrepresents our arguments. He logic is, of course, used by many disciplines begins by characterising our writings as exemplary including science and mathematics, the study of what he terms “small r rationalism”, which and development of logic itself is actually a according to Bakker entails “agreement with branch of philosophy. Immanuel Kant who argued that knowledge 54 The Skeptic March 18

can be innate, can be acquired through pure Rather, what Fodor in fact argued is that “If the reasoning, and that philosophical enquiry and superior status of the natural sciences is based argument alone can answer the Big Questions”. on their superior adherence to a particular set This entire concept is a red herring since of epistemological principles, then it is those neither of us is a Kantian, nor are we defending a principles themselves that are the true bearer rationalist as distinct from empiricist approach in of the superior status ... applying these same our writings. Furthermore, it is logically invalid principles to any disciple should yield knowledge to infer our wider philosophical positions from justified to similarly rigorous standards.” Fodor’s two specific essays we have written about narrow point here was simply that the principles of topics. In particular, any attempt to characterise sound inquiry are broadly applicable across us as anti-empiricists is a bit rich given our all disciplines. Thomas Huxley expressed this backgrounds in science and skepticism. idea well: ‘the man of science simply uses with This ‘small r rationalism’ is contrasted with scrupulous exactness the methods which we all, ‘capital r Rationalism’, which Bakker says is habitually and at every minute, use carelessly’. defined by the Rationalist Society of Australia as Finally, Harding does not equate ‘science’ with holding that “knowledge is best acquired by use ‘the natural sciences’ in his essay. This comment of the scientific method, which is an inseparable by Bakker appears to be a misunderstanding of a combination of reason plus observation or statement by Sorrell that Harding cites on page 33. experiment”. However, Bakker does not provide any reference for his definition of Rationalism, BAKKER ON ETHICS and we cannot find his quoted definition on the Bakker attempts to give an account as to how Rationalist Society of Australia website. It remains “moral and ethical questions” can be answered unclear, therefore, where Bakker’s concepts of without recourse to philosophical argumentation. rationalism (small or capital ‘r’) have come from. He argues that we should resolve these questions Later in his piece, Bakker castigates Fodor for by the following procedure: his critique of ‘crude positivism’, which Bakker • Realise that moral questions are not says “sounds like a straw man”, and asks “why “answerable by reference to some absolute, not critique ‘refined positivism’?”. In his original transcendent set of rules”. article, however, Fodor explained that the reason • Instead, focus on what principles and laws he discusses ‘crude positivism’ is because he “best achieve society’s goals”. wanted to address the “patchwork of overlapping • Engage in systematic observation of “what ideas and perspectives” that in his experience human beings are actually found to value” (as seemed quite prominent in rationalist/skeptic/ individuals and as groups). communities. Neither of us criticised • Determine (empirically) which codes of law, ‘positivism’ as such in our essays – another red ethics, and mores will work best to achieve herring on Bakker’s part. A response to more these goals, and implement those. sophisticated philosophical accounts of positivism The first point appears to constitute an would require much more space than available endorsement of moral anti-realism, the position for Fodor’s short article, and furthermore such that there are no objectively existing moral states accounts have already been written elsewhere. of affairs. This is a philosophical position that All this should have been clear enough after a stands in contrast to many forms of moral realism, careful reading of our essays, where we both which affirm the existence of objective moral facts outline clearly what James means by the term while differing on the form that such moral facts ‘crude positivism’. Consulting Mr Google is no take. Bakker not only fails to notice that he is substitute for carefully reading the argument one making a philosophical claim, but also offers no intends to respond to. reason at all to accept his assertion. Fodor also does not say that scientism claims His second point appears to be an endorsement that “the humanities should adopt the scientific of some form of cultural relativism, the view that method”, and even though this appears in quotes what is good or moral is dependent upon the in Bakker’s piece, this phrase is not present in goals and standards of a particular culture. Later either Harding’s essay or Fodor’s original essay. though, Bakker also mentions “the goals ... of So this is an actual misquotation by Bakker - humanity”, so he may not be a cultural relativist, even worse than a misrepresentation. The closest but providing an account of what it could mean statement to it was one by Prof Tom Sorrell who for ‘humanity’ to have goals, let alone what such was cited on page 33 of Harding’s essay using goals might be, is not even attempted. Either different words, albeit with a similar meaning. way, these are philosophical positions that require 55 FORUM Philosophy

Philosophy & Science continued the superiority of science, since some scientific theories that ‘worked’ and were ‘useful’ nevertheless have been shown to be incorrect. Bakker responds that this is not a reason for doubting pragmatic justifications of the defence, and cannot simply be asserted without superiority of science, since no disciple outside of argument. science can do any better. As he says: “No other Aside from the lack of substantive arguments method has ever shown a scientifically-derived for his position, several critical objections can be explanation that works to be wrong.” raised against his views. For example, in cases of The problem with this response is that genocide or slavery, societies have determined that it ignores most of Fodor’s argument. In his their goals are best met by engaging in actions argument he explained that there are two main we would regard as immoral. On what basis, in ways of understanding the goal of science. One Bakker’s account, can we say that they are morally view, realism, holds that science attempts to wrong in doing so? Bakker’s account also renders arrive at accurate (albeit usually approximate) apparently very important questions about what descriptions of the way reality actually is. If this goals we ought to have as unintelligible, since on is a key goal of science, then obviously there is his view this would trivially amount to asking more to good science than just being ‘useful’, whether having a certain goal would help us to as demonstrated by the fact that many useful achieve that goal. scientific theories have nevertheless turned out not Perhaps Bakker’s account can be rescued by to accurately describe reality. developing sufficiently rich concepts about what Bakker, however, doesn’t seem to be persuaded is meant by a ‘goal’, how competing goals within by this, so perhaps he is an instrumentalist. a group are integrated, what kinds of goals are Instrumentalism holds that science does most pertinent, etc. All of the extra conceptual not attempt to tell us about the way the world work and articulation of distinctions and giving really is, but merely to deliver useful models and of reasons for one’s positions, however, is precisely descriptions that make predictions and/or serve what one does in doing philosophy. The poverty practical ends. of Bakker’s ‘solution’ to the problems posed by Like other advocates of scientism, however, morality and ethics points clearly and directly for Bakker has also claimed that “all meaningful exactly why we need philosophy. philosophical problems are actually scientific In response to Bakker’s third point, even the problems”. This seems to pose a problem since notion of determining empirically what people a great many philosophical problems relate to actually value is not the straightforward scientific claims about the way the world is, while under exercise Bakker implies it to be. It sounds like he instrumentalism science has nothing to say about is advocating some sort of populist opinion poll or the way the world actually is beyond providing focus group approach to ethical questions. While useful models. Thus, if scientific instrumentalism these might provide opinions about particular is correct, it seems that philosophical problems ethical issues, they are unlikely to result in more cannot be scientific questions. generalised frameworks or principles that can be The only way to reconcile these views would be applied to other ethical issues. Anybody who has to assert that all philosophical questions relating to seriously studied ethics will be aware that some how the world actually is, are in fact ‘meaningless’. ethical problems can be very complex, and not Yet this would entail that even questions like ‘is conducive to solution by public opinion surveys. slavery morally wrong?’ or ‘does God exist?’ or ‘what is knowledge?’ are actually meaningless. SCIENCE AND PRAGMATISM Even if one is dubious about whether philosophy Bakker defines science with prime reference to has provided useful answers to such questions, it ‘what works’, arguing that “[science] is a method is quite something else to assert that the questions of inquiry, and it is the only one we have found so themselves are meaningless. To us this is clearly far that gives us reliable, reproducible, consensual, absurd – such questions may be subtle and evidence-backed, applicable knowledge, in any multifaceted, but are not ‘meaningless’. ‘field of inquiry’. In fact, this is so almost by As such it seems that Bakker is caught in a bind definition. If a process – a particular method – – either he must embrace scientific realism and works, we include it in the scientific method.” thereby abandon his purely pragmatic conception In our earlier essays we raised the objection of science as ‘what works’, or else he must instead that this is an insufficient basis for defending embrace scientific instrumentalism and thereby 56 The Skeptic March 18

(given his other views) hold that all philosophical unusual in academia - theoretical physicists also questions are meaningless. admit that their work is incomplete. It does not The other aspect of Fodor’s argument about follow that philosophers have not produced any the status of science that Bakker ignores is the useful knowledge or insights pertinent to the ‘Big fact that appealing to ‘what works’ is a far too Questions’. amorphous and generous criterion to grant science Bakker seems to think that philosophical the superior status Bakker wants for it. This is knowledge is all or none – either a question has because many other fields of inquiry and human an established, agreed upon answer, or it does endeavour also ‘work’. not. Philosophy, however, attempts (among For example, one goal shared by many people other things) to explore and articulate key and societies throughout history is to understand concepts that underpin human thought, such as their purpose in living and find meaning in life. ‘causation’, ‘time’, ‘space’, ‘mind’, ‘rationality’, For the large majority of such people, belief in a ‘knowledge’, ‘good’, and ‘meaning’. This process supernatural being or spiritual agencies beyond of conceptual exploration and refinement is not this material world has ‘worked’ to provide them all or none, but a gradual accumulation of new with answers that they find compelling and arguments, models, comparisons, and analytical meaningful. We could even point to a variety of frameworks, of that sort that can be found in psychological studies indicating that such spiritual any introductory philosophical textbook or beliefs and practises actually do lead to better handbook. outcomes along a range of metrics of interest, such Another aspect that Bakker overlooks is that as life satisfaction, physical and mental health. once a widely agreed upon answer or framework Yet we would not wish to thereby grant for thinking about one particular question is supernatural belief the status of being a science, no arrived upon, the field ceases to be regarded as matter how well it has ‘worked’ for many people philosophy and becomes an established science. over human history. As we mentioned earlier, modern physics was Perhaps, however, we are not to understand originally called ‘natural philosophy’, and most what ‘works’ in this case as referring to achieving of the other fields of natural and social science social or personal goals (though Bakker does use likewise branched off from philosophy at various the term this way in his discussion of morality), times. This was not simply because researchers but rather as to being uniquely able to generate decided to use ‘the scientific method’, but was “reliable, reproducible, consensual, evidence- in part the result of conceptual refinements and backed, applicable knowledge”. theoretical developments (as well as technological In this case, however, the criterion still advances) that allowed the discipline to reach clearly fails, since (as Bakker himself seems to maturity as a science. We note that much of acknowledge), history, social science, detective the subject matter of philosophy of mind is work, jurisprudence, and other fields can also currently in the process of being transformed into deliver this sort of knowledge. So it remains the purview of the emerging field of cognitive unclear what exactly is supposed to place science science. in the uniquely privileged position that Bakker Thus, the only way Bakker can argue that attempts to carve out for it. philosophy has been “a dismal failure” as a truth seeker is first, by ignoring all of the important PHILOSOPHY AND KNOWLEDGE historical contributions that philosophers and One of Bakker’s primary concerns in his article philosophical reasoning has made in providing seems to be in arguing that “philosophy ... as a the foundation for modern scientific disciplines, truth-seeker ... has been a dismal failure”. The and secondly by imposing an implausibly rigid only reason he gives for believing this, however, and simplistic criterion for what philosophical is that “in 3000 years it has confirmed for us not knowledge should look like. one answer to any of the Big Questions”. We Finally, Bakker ignores the many demonstrable interpret this to mean that philosophers have not contributions that philosophy has made to been able to agree upon an answer to any of the increasing human knowledge and wellbeing, of Big Questions. which we will now give a few examples. This, however, seems to be a completely Our first example is that of Galileo, who drew misplaced criterion. To say that philosophers his conclusions about falling objects using logic have not yet agreed upon a final answer to any and reason rather than experience or observation. of the ‘Big Questions’ is simply to say that On page 58 Bakker draws a distinction between philosophy is not yet complete. This is hardly reason and logic, yet he seems unaware that 57 FORUM Philosophy

the development of modern digital computers. Philosophy & Science continued Our final example is the development of the ethical principles of informed patient consent, which were developed by judges and bioethicists. Prior to this, there were some notorious cases in the first half of the twentieth century where reason is the application of logic, which is a informed patient consent had not been obtained sub-field of philosophy rather than science. How for certain clinical trials. We argue that informed on Earth could Galileo have experienced objects patient consent is primarily obtained for legal falling in a vacuum? or ethical reasons, and not for purely scientific Our second example is that of the democratic purposes. We could supply further examples of principles and safeguards embodied in the the practical usefulness of philosophy, but space United States Constitution, which were in this magazine is understandably limited. significantly influenced by political philosophers such as William Blackstone, John Locke, and CONCLUDING REMARKS Montesquieu. Science had nothing to do with it. Bakker’s article exemplifies the pitfalls of crude Our third example is the work of a number of positivism and the folly of scientism. There seems philosophers, logicians, and mathematicians such to be an inverse correlation in such writings as Gottlob Frege, Bertrand Russell, Kurt Gödel, between the disdainful dismissal of non-scientific and Alan Turing, who developed the foundations disciplines like philosophy and the level of of logic and computer science that underpinned understanding of what philosophy actually is. In particular, the fundamental flaw of Bakker’s argument is that, in arguing for the unique superiority of science and the uselessness of philosophy as a field of inquiry, Bakker is himself doing philosophy. Because of his rejection of the value of philosophy and refusal to engage with relevant philosophical literature, however, he is also doing it very badly. Philosophy addresses many of the most fundamental questions that underpin all aspects of human endeavour, including law, politics, ethics - and even science. It is therefore not something we can simply avoid doing or pretend doesn’t exist. It can be difficult and even frustrating when agreement and final resolution is often so hard to achieve. Nevertheless, we believe that, as intellectually responsible skeptics, it is vital to take philosophical issues seriously, and reject the easy but misguided notion of “crude positivism” that science is the only form of human inquiry worth taking seriously.

Tim Harding Cheltenham VIC & James Fodor, Boronia West VIC

58 The Skeptic March 18

Philosophy & Science II In which we continue the discussion on the benefits of thinking - and see how philosophy denial might be a trap for the unwary.

“ here is no new thing under the sun” numerically distinct entities can share all their Tcomplains ‘the Preacher,’ the great properties’. nihilist philosopher of ancient Israel. Bakker’s in fairly esteemed company in buying Certainly, philosophy-bashing is nothing into this confusion: Stephen Hawking’s claim new. The Athenians put Socrates to death, that physics has superseded philosophy rests on the Alexandrians murdered Hypatia, Jan the same mistaken assumption that physics and Patočka died after a long interrogation by the philosophy were simply alternative, competing Czech communist secret police. Thankfully methodologies for producing the same type of in recent years philosophers have gotten knowledge about the same thing, both chasing off comparatively easily. The hemlock the same goal, and physics won. having been quietly shelved, these days we You can’t test the boiling point of water philosophers mostly just have to put up philosophically, and you’d be a fool to try. But with rockstar astrophysicists (to date: equally, Leibniz’ principle of the identity of Hawking, Krauss, deGrasse Tyson) indiscernibles is not an empirical proposition. and the odd thinkpiece declaring You won’t determine whether it’s true or not philosophy obsolete, unproductive, by observation or experiment. Neither are the or simply ‘dead’. propositions of logic, or ethics, or aesthetics, or What’s interesting about these even epistemology. Yet that does not excuse us critiques is that they all end up from having to answer logical, ethical, aesthetic, falling obliviously into exactly the same trap. All or epistemic questions. end up trying to philosophise their way out of doing philosophy, like a drowning person trying STANDARDS OF SUCCESS? to drink his way out of the water. Gary Bakker’s The second complaint is the even more sweeping recent article on these pages [The Skeptic, one that philosophy doesn’t answer any serious December 2017, pp 56-59] is a splendidly questions we might have. Of course philosophy illustrative example of this genre. offers answers to questions all the time; the A standard complaint in the anti-philosophy complaint is, rather, that they don’t stay literature is that science progresses and answered. Bakker argues that my Stop the AVN philosophy does not. This complaint takes comrade Peter Bowditch, in defending the value at least two different forms, both of which of philosophy, fails to provide a single “scrap are present in Bakker’s piece. The first is that of – just one example of a philosophy is simply made redundant by problem it had solved”. advances in other fields, principally the natural But that’s already to invoke a standard of sciences. If physics can tell us why there’s success (empirical evidence) and with it a something rather than nothing, so the thinking criterion for measuring philosophy against that goes, who cares what Spinoza had to say on standard (the solving of problems) that are not the same topic? Why should we care about only tendentious in themselves – why would we philosophers’ definitions of ‘nothing,’ ‘cause’ or assume logical, metaphysical, epistemological ‘substance’ when the definitions that scientists or ethical problems are solvable in the same use get the job done perfectly well? way as empirical questions? – they’re a standard To call philosophy an ‘alternative and a criterion that could only be defended methodology’ to science, as Bakker does, philosophically. misses the point if it assumes they each apply For a great many of philosophy’s critics, to the same type of proposition, as if science particularly those given to the more naïve forms and philosophy take themselves to be two of scientism, this is a curious and persistent blind different ways of testing claims like ‘water boils spot. They quite rightly defend the scientific at 100 degrees Celsius at sea level’ and ‘no two method as a knowledge-generating mechanism so 59 FORUM Philosophy

Philosophy & Science continued important questions – just because we’ve decided to set them aside within a given domain and for a specific purpose. And even the question of which questions are worth pursuing, being a question about value, is ultimately a philosophical one. unprecedentedly successful that it overrules any Even Bakker’s claim that “all meaningful and all competing methods – and in a world full philosophical problems are actually scientific of pseudoscience and associated nonsense it’s a problems,” quite apart from being false, is itself very good thing that they do! a philosophical proposition. Perhaps Bakker But you cannot use the scientific method to might have known that had he looked beyond investigate the efficacy of the scientific method the dictionary definition of positivism to learn itself without falling into obvious circularity. why positivism failed in the specific ways it did. Bakker – like a great many philosophers of If he knew that history, he might have recognized science before him – appeals here to the fact that his claim that “we have misused words to ask science works as a justification for taking the and answer questions that weren’t there in the deliverances of the scientific method as being first place” comes straight from Wittgenstein’s true. I’ve certainly no objection to that. The Philosophical Investigations: “philosophical problem is that “what is true is what works” is problems arise when language goes on holiday”. not a scientific proposition. It’s a philosophical Wittgenstein thought the purpose of one, with roots going back to pragmatist philosophy is to dissolve such pseudo-problems, philosophers like Charles Peirce and William to “show the fly the way out of the fly bottle”. James. Yet as philosophy denialists show time and time Like many philosophy denialists, Bakker again, philosophy is a snare that only gets tighter simply fails to notice that his own position, in the more you try to struggle out of it. In claiming this case a position he calls “empiricism”, is itself science displaces philosophy, Bakker is in fact a philosophical position, and as such can only doing philosophy, not science. In appealing to be evaluated and defended philosophically. In standards of evidence against which we could fact, Bakker’s view, as he acknowledges, is really judge philosophy, he’s still doing philosophy. In a pragmatist rather than an empiricist one: his appealing to a (naturalistic?) standard of ‘what “what works, works” is a long way from the sort works’ in ethics and law he’s absolutely doing of scientific realism we usually associate with philosophy – and falling into a category mistake what he calls ‘Rationalism’. (It’s also very odd by trying to smuggle normativity back into a he thinks ‘postmodernists’ – insofar as that’s a picture he insists is all ‘is’ and no ‘ought’. descriptively useful term, which it mostly isn’t – That’s the really irritating thing about dislike pragmatism.) philosophy: not that the perplexity never ends, That doesn’t mean this ‘Rationalist’ position but that in the end philosophy itself is simply is wrong. But it’s not, as many philosophically inescapable. It’s what Bakker’s doing, it’s what I’m naive commentators seem to assume, simply doing right now, and it’s what you’re doing right and obviously right either. Any half-decent now too in assessing these competing arguments. epistemologist with an afternoon to kill could You can do it well, or do it badly; that’s all. drive a truck through any single element of And in that sense, we’re indebted to Bakker for the truth-standard Bakker endorses: “reliable, unwittingly demonstrating, yet again, the value reproducible, consensual, evidence-based, of philosophy. applicable knowledge”. Can such a standard be defended? Absolutely! How would you do so? Patrick Stokes There’s only one way, and it rhymes (sort of) with ‘apostrophe’. Dr Stokes is senior lecturer in philosophy at Deakin Of course, uninterrogated standards, concepts, University and a member of Stop the AVN. His most and assumptions aren’t always a problem. Most recent book is “The Naked Self: Kierkegaard and Personal of the time scientists simply don’t need to worry Identity”. about questions of epistemology or metaphysics. They can do science perfectly well without them, and get further that way than if they had to constantly re-litigate questions about the epistemic and ontological basis of what they do. But questions don’t cease to be questions – even 60 LETTERS To the Editor The Skeptic March 18

reasoning. And I appreciate the few What you think ... contributions in the magazine in this direction. Groves on In making that statement, is he displaying Rationalism, philosophic Dr Neville Buch emotionalism, or simply pragmatism Sunnybank Hills QLD by kow-towing to the opinion of the general population regarding the was saddened to hear of Colin President of the USE? Women in I Groves’ death. Colin was a good friend of mine and contributed many Alan Moskwa the Pub articles for my old website No Answers Magill SA in Genesis (noanswersingenesis.org.au). When I began NAiG in September t was interesting to read Eran 1998 I made a point of enlisting the ISegev’s article on how to form support of as many Australian scientists Populism a Skeptical organisation in the as possible to write articles attacking & elitism December issue of The Skeptic. His young Earth creationists, in particular, comment on ensuring diversity in those creationists working for “Answers committees is encouraging. in Genesis”. I wasn’t disappointed with have a question which I have asked The other articles in that feature on the response. Colin, however, was one Ia number of Skeptics in the past: Skeptical groups - setting up Skeptics of my main contributors. As good as it is to highlight populist in the Pub and the history of Skeptical I set up a page containing Colin’s targets - the paranormal movement, organisations - did not mention contributions which can still be found for example - does not the negative diversity in their audience. I don’t at tinyurl.com/y7zzt9v7 and will, I’m emphasis of the movement only know if that was one of the questions sure, be of interest to many of those strengthen the targets? asked in the Skeptics’ survey. who knew Colin. The point of the question is that The Skeptical meetings I attend Colin didn’t specifically write for historically the Skeptics came as do have a decent mix of young and NAiG but kindly gave his permission a counter-movement, and it does old, female and male. So I’d be keen for me to include many of his essays really offer something in terms of to know how other groups stand up. in the “The Groves Collection”. Some the positive, that is, the intellectual Is their mix of attendees diverse or of the essays are of a general scientific tradition of philosophical skepticism, still stuck with the ‘old white male’ nature. as seen in popular science education dominance that Eran refers to? As many correspondents have said movements. Sonia Rowbotham recently, he will be missed.. I do appreciate some efforts in via email this direction in the magazine of John Stear late. As important as it might be Grenfell NSW to be a counter-movement, the big picture problem is the populist- elitist dynamic where things like the paranormal movement thrive Coming up because the things that undermine Trump such belief systems (the principles of argumentation and investigation) are the matters that are too easily ary Bakker (“Science and the dismissed by being labelled ‘elitist’. GReal World”, Vol 37 No 4) There are plenty of examples of this describes himself as a Rationalist. in the history of religion and politics. He concludes his article with the The popular science education observation that “The last 3000 years movements, I think, are on the right has shown us the Rationalism trumps track if they can get people beyond rationalism any time.” I agree with the basic political reaction. Better him entirely. perhaps is the Critical Thinking But then he ends with the note that movement which gets to a layer he is “so loath to use that term”, the deeper in the understanding of term in question being “trumps”. what makes a belief legitimate in 61 QUOTES

What they said ...

“ For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” - Prejudices: The Second Series, 1921

“ We are here and it is now. Further than that, all human knowledge is moonshine.” - A Mencken Chrestomathy, 1949

“ The most costly of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true. It is the chief occupation of mankind.” - A Mencken Chrestomathy, 1949

“ It is impossible to imagine the universe run by a wise, just and omnipotent God, but it is quite easy to imagine it run by a board of gods.” - Minority Report : H.L. Mencken’s Notebooks (1956)

“ I believe that it is better to tell the truth than a lie. I believe it is better to be free than to be a slave. And I believe it is better to know than to be ignorant. ” - What I Believe, 1930 NBC archive

HL Mencken Photo:

CRYPTIC CROSSWORD SOLUTION DR BOB’S QUIZ SOLUTIONS

Y H T A P O R U T A C S D E

N 1. H N E H O O K E

T I E C E D T S N O I C I F T 2. Mars - the Mars Pathfinder landing site.

A I L R S T A G

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62 The Skeptic March 18

Local Skeptical Groups

QLD SA Queensland Skeptics Association Inc Skeptics SA – Laurie Eddie www.qskeptics.org.au 52B Miller St Unley, SA 5061 Email: [email protected] Tel: (08) 8272 5881 [email protected] Mobile: 0429 143 955 Thinking and Drinking - Skeptics in the Pub Meetings to be announced Contact: [email protected] www.meetup.com/Thinking-and-Drinking-Skeptics-in-the- Brisbane Skeptics in the Pub Pub/ calendar/10205558 http://Brisbanesitp.wordpress.com, follow links for Facebook, or http://tinyurl.com/loqdrt Twitter and email list Meets on the third Friday of every month at The Benjamin on Meets on the first Tuesday of each month from 6:30pm at the Franklin pub, 233 Franklin St, Adelaide. Plough Inn, Southbank

Gold Coast Skeptics – Dr Paulina Stehlik WA 7 Salamander Crt, Mermaid Waters QLD 4218 WA Skeptics – Dr Geoffrey Dean www.goldcoastskepticsblog.wordpress.com PO Box 466, Subiaco, WA 6904 Email: [email protected] Tel: 08 9341 4538 after 5pm Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/gcskeptics www.undeceivingourselves.org Details of all our meetings and speakers are on our website. TAS Hobart Skeptics – Leyon Parker Perth Skeptics – Tanya Marwood PO Box 84, Battery Point TAS 7004 meetup.com/Perth_Skeptics Tel: 03 6225 3988 BH, 0418 128713 [email protected] Meetings at Henry on Eighth, 45 Eighth Ave, Maylands Skeptics in the Pub - 2nd Monday each month, 6.30pm, Ball & Chain restaurant, Salamanca Place NT Darwin Skeptics – Michelle Franklin Launceston Skeptics – Jin-oh Choi PO Box2027 Humpty Doo NT 0836 0408 271 800 [email protected] Tel: 0408 783 145; www.facebook.com/group/darwinskeptics/ www.launcestonskeptics.com [email protected] Launceston: Skeptics in the Pub third Thursday of each month Meetings to be announced - see Facebook page for details 5.30pm @ The Royal Oak Hotel Launceston: Skeptical Sunday, 2nd Sunday of each month 2.00pm @ Cube Cafe

NOTE: LISTINGS WELCOME We invite listings for any Skeptical groups based on local rather than regional areas. Email us at editor@ skeptics.com.au with details of your organisation’s name, contact details and any regular functions, eg Skeptics in the Pub, with time, day of the month, location etc. Because this is a quarterly journal and most local groups meet monthly, it is unlikely we will be able to include references to specific speakers or events. Skeptic_BackCover2_MAR18.indd 64

THE AUSTRALIAN SKEPTICS 34th NATIONAL CONVENTION

More details to come OCTOBER 13. 14

SYDNEY.2018 9/03/2018 9:11pm