. . SOCIETY

Vol. 36, No 4. December 2016 Uncritical Thinking Dangers and Solutions

+Problems with Prophets Ghost Gear & EuroScary

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_TESTCover_Dec16.indd 1 6/12/2016 11:38 am The Skeptic December 16

Skeptical Groups in NSW VIC Inc – Eran Segev Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc – Chris Guest www.skeptics.com.au GPO Box 5166, VIC 3001 PO Box 20, Beecroft, NSW 2119 Tel: 1 800 666 996 [email protected] Tel: 02 8094 1894; Mob: 0432 713 195; Fax: (02) 8088 4735 Skeptics’ Café – Third Monday of every month, with guest [email protected] speaker. La Notte, 140 Lygon St. Meal from 6pm, speaker at 8pm – 6pm first Thursday of each sharp. More details on our web site www.skeptics.com.au/vic month at the Crown Hotel, cnr Goulburn and Elizabeth Streets in the city (meeting upstairs) Dinner meetings are held on a regular basis. Ballarat Skeptics Currently being re-activated. See Facebook for details

Hunter Skeptics – John Turner Tel: (02) 4959 6286 [email protected] Citizens for Science - Mornington Peninsula (formerly Peninsula Skeptics, aka The Celestial Teapot) Meetings are held at the Club Macquarie, Lake Road, Argenton Contact: Graeme Hanigan 0438 359 600 on the second Thursday of each month, excepting January, http://www.meetup.com/Citizens-for-Science/ commencing 7.00pm, with a guest speaker or open discussion www.facebook.com/groups/peninsula.skeptics/ on a given topic. Visitors welcome. Further information from the secretary at: [email protected] Great Ocean Road Skeptics (Geelong) Contact: Carolyn Coulson [email protected] ACT https://www.facebook.com/groups/147741491945391/ Canberra Skeptics – Lauren Kelly PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 Meets on the last Wednesday of each month from 6pm, City http://www.canberraskeptics.org.au Tel: 0410 382 306 Quarter, Cunningham Pier East Geelong [email protected] (general inquiries), The Surfcoast Summer Skepticamp is run annually by members [email protected] (Canberra Skeptics in the Pub). A free monthly talk, open to the public - check website for details Melbourne Eastern Hills Skeptics in the Pub Skeptics in the Pub gather at 1pm on the third Sunday of each Contact: Andrew Rawlings [email protected] month at King O’Malleys Pub in Civic. For up-to-date details: http://mehsitp.codenix.org www.meetup.com/ SocialSkepticsCanberra/ https://www.facebook.com/pages/Melbourne-Eastern-Hills Skeptics-in-the-Pub/19241290737690?ref=ts Meets second Monday of each month at The Knox Club, Wantirna South.

Melbourne Skeptics in the Pub http://www.melbourneskeptics.com.au/skeptics-in-the-pub/ Meets on the fourth Monday of every month from 6 pm at the Mt View Hotel in Richmond.

Mordi Skeptics in the Pub http://www.meetup.com/Mordi-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/ Meets at 7.30pm on the first Tuesday of each month at the Mordialloc Sporting Club. ($4 to cover website costs)

For details on Skeptical groups in other states and territories, see inside back cover Volume 36 • No 4 December 16 Contents

REPORTS 2016 Convention 10 10 Jessica Singer and Martin Hadley

FEATURES That’s a Good Reason 20 28 Tim Harding Uni Daze 24 Diana Lucia Tertiary Thinking 28 24 Martin Davies

Tools of Thought 30 Sharon Hill 20 32 39 ARTICLES It Ain’t Necessarily So 32 Colin Groves and Simon Brown 44 Daniel Come to Judgement 39 Colin Groves and Simon Brown

The Reasons Behind It All 44 Colin Groves and Simon Brown Broken Tech Ghost Hunting 46 46 Colin Dickey

Apps for Apparitions 49 Appolicius

Old Stories of Old Europe 51 Listverse.com 51 REGULARS Editorial 4 Around the Traps 5 Them! 9 56 Puzzles page 27 The logical place 53 What goes around 54 Book reviews 56 Forum 58 Letters 60 54 EDITORIAL

Think, think, think! ecent events on the political thinking and science education? You bet! R scene – OK, be upfront, we mean But where should that education the election of Donald Trump – have come from? Scientists from academia given support to the fear that there is perhaps - independent, informed, critical a lowering of science literacy and an thinkers all? ISSN 0726-9897 increasing anti-science attitude among Hopefully so, but there might still Quarterly Journal of the population. be issues there. Apart from the fact that Australian Skeptics Inc Just a few claims by The Don: there are tertiary institutions teaching (ABN 90 613 095 379) • Vaccines cause autism. (“We’ve had and, in some cases, practising woo, Editor so many instances … A child went there is also the surprising reality that Tim Mendham to have the vaccine, got very, very academics are not quite the free-thinking sick, and now is autistic.” He gets bunch we might assume. Editorial Board endorsement from disgraced anti- In 1998, the US National Academy Steve Roberts vaxxer : “For the of found that 93 per cent of Eran Segev first time in a long time, I feel very its members were atheists (actually, Martin Hadley positive about this, because Donald 93 per cent of those who bothered Barry Williams Trump is not beholden to the to respond to a survey). This figure Design Services pharmaceutical industry.”) was quoted by a lot of people to show Nova Consulting P/L • The concept of global warming was how independent and informed these created by and for the Chinese in critical thinkers are. All correspondence to: order to make US manufacturing Unfortunately it may not be true. Australian Skeptics Inc non-competitive. In 2009, the Pew Research Centre PO Box 20 • Trump has argued for downsizing the reported that 51 per cent of US scientists Beecroft NSW 2119 Department of Education and said believe that God or some higher power Australia that the US invests too much money exists; only 17 per cent of scientists Contact details in K-12 schooling. identify themselves as atheists. Tel: +61 (0)2 8094 1894 • He has suggested that he might While that means scientists are a Mob: +61 (0)432 713 195 appoint Ben Carson - a young-Earth, much less religious group than the Fax: +61 (0)2 8088 4735 anti-evolution creationist - to advise general US population, the Pew figure him on educational reform. hardly encourages you to believe that [email protected] And Trump’s Vice President universities are a hot bed of paganism. www.skeptics.com.au Mike Pence hedges on whether he Heaven knows what the figures might acknowledges evolution. be for primary and secondary school The Skeptic is published four times We have our own home-grown teachers. But we have to start somewhere per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. versions, of course, including a few if we are ever to have a population that Views and opinions expressed in articles creationists among the lot in Parliament treats pronouncements like Trump’s with and letters in The Skeptic are those of House in Canberra, not to mention the derision they deserve. the authors, and are not necessarily Federal Health Minister Sussan Lay In this issue, Martin Davies raises those of Australian Skeptics Inc. who apparently added the extra-S to her serious doubts that is Articles may be reprinted with first name for numerological reasons being taught, or is even an outcome, of permission and with due acknowledge- (http://tinyurl.com/htntrvb). tertiary education. Maybe primary and ment to The Skeptic. Are these truly signs of anti-science secondary schools are the best prospect All effort is made to ensure correct and ignorance at the top or are they of getting at least a modicum of critical acknowledgement of all contributions. ‘merely’ demagoguery appealing to the thinking in the agenda. This writer We are happy to update credit when so lowest common denominator? will soon be addressing a high school informed. With Australian school kids’ philosophy class on critical thinking – standards in science and maths 20 kids out of 1400 students. But at Editorial submission deadline apparently stagnating, and enrolments least it’s a start. . for the next issue: in those subjects similarly moribund, January 31, 2017 is it time for a hefty dose of critical - Tim Mendham, editor 4 NEWS The Skeptic December 16 Around the traps ... Australian Skeptics awards – politicians, complainers and dodgy doctorates

Celebrity winners of the 2016 awards from Australian Skeptics included a Victorian Government Minister, a Melbourne academic and “serial complainer”, and a controversial anti-vaccinationist and her Australian university. The awards were made at the formal dinner on November 26 for the Skeptics’ Annual Convention, which this year was held in Melbourne. Thornett Award for the Promotion of Reason Skeptics of the Year AUS: The Victorian Health Minister “Ms Hennessy has received all of AUS: Another positive award from Jill Hennessy was awarded the Skeptics’ those, and courageously faced down the Skeptics is “Skeptic of the Year’, Thornett Award for the Promotion those who misrepresent and mislead given to those in the Skeptical of Reason. Colloquially called “The the public in their promotion of dodgy community whose efforts go above Fred”- it commemorates Fred Thornett, medical claims and practices, in this and beyond what can reasonably be a Tasmanian Skeptic who died in 2009 case anti-vaccinationists and rogue expected of committed campaigners. - this award acknowledges a member chiropractors. This year the award was issued of the public or a public figure who “She was as forthright in her jointly to Dr and Mal has made a significant contribution public criticism of claims that are not Vickers (pictured above) for their to educating or informing the public supported by science and, in the case continued and highly effective work regarding issues of science and reason. of chiropractors, those who ignore the in exposing claims and practices “As every public figure knows, directives of their professional bodies.” of chiropractors that mislead and especially those in more heated arenas, She also went public in revealing the misrepresent the benefits of their hate mail and vicious trolling on social mail she received - usually anonymously activities, and can be dangerous to media are part of the job,” said Eran - from those who ‘disagree’ with her; members of the public. Segev, president of Australian Skeptics disagree so much as to threaten violence Dr Harvey is adjunct Associate Inc. “Death threats and promises of and even death for daring to point out Professor at the School of Public Health violence are another matter. their errors and misleading statements. and Preventive Medicine at Monash University, and one of Australia’s leading campaigners against non- science based medicines and a critic of Bent Spoon Award ‘evidence’ and conspiratorial thinking. pharmaceutical marketing. Wilyman continues to defend her Mr Vickers is a long time member AUS: The less-than-positive Bent Spoon degree with endless diatribes to all and of Victorian Skeptics who exposed is awarded to the perpetrator of the most sundry. Her university went into defence hundreds of chiropractors who made preposterous piece of pseudoscientific mode with a pathetic ‘free speech’ unsubstantiated claims online. or piffle of the year, and is argument - which means free to present Harvey and Vickers also exposed one of the least desirable prizes in the rubbish and be rewarded for it. Many the inadequacies of the professional country. Past winners have included Pete within the university’s own staff - those bodies that supposedly oversee these ’Paleo’ Evans, the CSIRO’s new head who actually know what they are talking practitioners, ignoring misleading Larry Marshall, the ABC, the Pharmacy about - came out to criticise their own claims and damaging activities and thus Guild of Australia, and a dentist. institution. A bad move by a respected indirectly ignoring the protection of the This year’s recipients were anti- institution; an expected move by a noted public. vaccinationist Judy Wilyman, her anti-science anti-vaccination zealot. Other strong contenders for the academic advisor Brian Martin, and A dishonourable mention went to the Skeptic of the Year were Ken McLeod the Social Sciences Department of the ABC’s now-defunct Catalyst program and Peter Tierney. Both are past for awarding and former reporter Dr Maryanne winners of the award, who have also Wilyman a doctorate on the basis Demasi for a one-sided unscientific campaigned against chiropractors, anti- of a PhD thesis riddled with errors, report on supposed brain damage from vaccination nurses, and the eventual misstatements, poor and unsupported wifi technology. winner of this year’s Bent Spoon. 5 23 NEWS

US FTC says marketing misleading Religious people worse at maths & science? USA: The US Federal Trade conditions. The statement describes Commission has announced a new the type of scientific evidence that the Enforcement policy statement on Commission requires of companies FINLAND: A new study from marketing claims for over-the-counter making such claims for their products. Finland indicates that those who believe (OTC) homeopathic drugs. Homeopathy, which dates back to religion and the paranormal have lower For the vast majority of OTC 1796, is based on the theory that disease skills in mathematics and a worse homeopathic drugs, the policy statement symptoms can be treated by minute understanding of biological and physical (http://tinyurl.com/hwdg436 ) notes, doses of substances that produce similar processes than those without those “the case for efficacy is based solely on symptoms when provided in larger doses beliefs. to healthy people. Many homeopathic Marjaana Lindeman and Annika products are diluted to such an extent Svedholm-Häkkinen of the University that they no longer contain detectable of Helsinki surveyed 258 Finnish levels of the initial substance. According individuals, asking them about their to the policy statement, homeopathic beliefs. Specifically, they focused on theories are not accepted by most two things: is there a god, and are there modern medical experts. paranormal phenomena. The results were However, the policy statement also intriguing. notes that “the FTC has long recognised “The more the participants believed that marketing claims may include in religious or other paranormal additional explanatory information phenomena, the lower their intuitive traditional homeopathic theories and to prevent the claims from being physics skills, mechanical and mental there are no valid studies using current misleading. Accordingly, it recognises rotation abilities, school grades in scientific methods showing the product’s that an OTC homeopathic drug claim mathematics and physics, and knowledge efficacy.” As such, the marketing claims that is not substantiated by competent about physical and biological phenomena for these products are likely misleading, and reliable scientific evidence might were … and the more they regarded in violation of the FTC Act. not be deceptive if the advertisement inanimate targets as mental phenomena,” The policy statement was informed or label where it appears effectively the authors told The Independent. by an FTC workshop held last year to communicates that: 1) there is no Mihai Andrei, of the science news examine how such drugs are marketed scientific evidence that the product source ZME Science, points out that the to consumers. The FTC also released works; and 2) the product’s claims are survey only surveyed Finnish people, and its staff report on the workshop based only on theories of homeopathy the sample size was small, and might not (http://tinyurl.com/h8yzsla), which from the 1700s that are not accepted by have been relevant for other populations. summarises the panel presentations and most modern medical experts. “So there are some statistical and related public comments in addition The policy statement notes that any relevance questions. Also, no causation to describing consumer research such disclosures should stand out and was addressed, only a correlation. … Still, commissioned by the FTC. be in close proximity to the product’s it is an interesting point.” . The statement applies only to OTC efficacy message and might need to products intended solely for self-limiting be incorporated into that message. It disease conditions amenable to self- also warns marketers not to undercut diagnosis of symptoms and treatment. a disclosure with additional positive SKEPTICS “The Commission believes this Policy statements or consumer endorsements Statement is appropriate in light of the reinforcing a product’s efficacy. The NEWSLETTER burgeoning mainstream marketing of statement warns that the FTC will Australian Skeptics publishes OTC homeopathic products alongside carefully scrutinise the net impression a fortnightly newsletter, with other OTC drugs.” of OTC homeopathic marketing The policy statement explains that the claims and that if an ad conveys more information on news, events FTC will hold efficacy and safety claims substantiation than a marketer has, it and items of interest. for OTC homeopathic drugs to the same will violate the FTC Act. To subscribe, go to standard as other products making similar The Commission voted 3-0 to www.skeptics.com.au claims. That is, companies must have approve the enforcement policy and enter your details at competent and reliable scientific evidence statement and issuance of the staff the bottom of the page – for health-related claims, including report on the Homeopathic Medicine & just name and email. claims that a product can treat specific Advertising Workshop. . 6 The Skeptic December 16

Award for ‘repressed memory’ skeptic Life Membership

USA: In November, corrupt eyewitness AUS: Life membership of Australian Prof Elizabeth Loftus, testimonies. More Skeptics Inc is conferred on people who now Professor of Law controversially, have worked diligently in the skeptical and Cognitive Science she demonstrated community. At the 2016 Skeptics at the University of how therapy and Convention this honour was given to California, Irvine, hypnosis could plant past Skeptic of the Year Loretta Marron, was awarded the John completely false as well as tireless behind-the-scenes Maddox Prize. childhood memories workers Margaret Kittson (Queensland The prize is given in patients. She Skeptics), John Turner and Kevin jointly by Nature, the went on to become McDonald (both Hunter Skeptics). . Kohn Foundation, an expert witness and the charity Sense about Science. or consultant for hundreds of court Previous winners include the cases. psychiatrist Simon Wessely, who faced For this work she was attacked and death threats for his work on chronic received threats from therapists and fatigue syndrome and mental health, patients who believed the new-found and , a scientist and long- memories were accurate. standing critic of . “That’s when the fighting got really Prof Loftus played a key role in the dirty,” Loftus told . “memory wars” of the 1990s, when many “Whenever you work in an area that people were analysed with “repressed challenges people’s wrongheaded, memories” of traumatic events, often cherished beliefs, it can be difficult. involving childhood abuse by parents. But sometimes it can also be a matter She performed a series of experiments of life and death.” that showed how exposure to inaccurate Loftus is a Fellow of the information and leading questions could Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. . Suffering and premature deaths from alternative cancer treatments

AUS: Every year thousands of through their ordeal. Australians are suffering and dying “The concern here is when a prematurely because of alternative patient takes up an alternative non cancer treatments according to a evidence-based ‘cure’ for their cancer special investigation by Dr Paul Willis, to the exclusion of conventional director of The Royal Institution of medical treatments,” he said. Australia (pictured below). The report highlights the lack of The report details the distressingly recorded evidence of the efficacy of high number of cancer sufferers alternative treatments as alternative who choose to forego conventional medical practitioners are under no treatment altogether in search of an obligation to record their treatments alternative cure. or the progress of those treatments. “Better education and awareness of “When we are talking about Of increasing concern is also the what treatments are available as well as cancer there is a difference between number of cancer sufferers who return proper supporting documentation and complementary treatments and to conventional medicine after trying hard data from alternative practitioners is alternative cures”, said Willis. to find an alternative cure. required to empower cancer sufferers to “Many of the front-line “Usually this occurs when make more informed decisions on their cancer medical practitioners things go wrong, the cancer overall treatment”, he said. we spoke with encourage has progressed and what A video titled No Alternative to Cancer their patients to seek may have been a treatable has been published on the RiAus’s out unconventional, condition has developed into Australia’s Science Channel. (www. complementary an untreatable cancer with australiascience.tv/videos/no-alternative- treatments to help them poor prognosis”, said Willis. cancer). 7 23 NEWS

Nursing board warns anti-vax members

AUS: The Nursing and Midwifery expectations while guiding the Board of Australia (NMBA) has issued professional practice of nurses a statement making “its expectations and midwives in Australia. about providing advice on vaccinations The Board says those clear to registered nurses, enrolled standards include recognising nurses and midwives”. the Australian National This is in response to recent reports Immunisation Handbook as providing advertising regulated health services. of nurses who have publically espoused “evidence-based advice to health The statement asks “What should anti-vaccination stances in social media professionals about the safe and I do if I notice a nurse or midwife is and elsewhere. effective use of vaccines and the promoting anti-vaccination material?” “The NMBA has become aware that public health benefits associated with and suggests that “If you have concerns there are a small number of registered vaccination”. about a nurse or midwife you can nurses, enrolled nurses and midwives The NMBA says it supports the make a complaint to AHPRA.” who are promoting anti-vaccination use of the handbook by registered “The NMBA will consider whether statements to patients and the public nurses, enrolled nurses and midwives the nurse or midwife has breached … which contradict the best available who are giving vaccines, and “expects their professional obligations and scientific evidence,” the statement says. all registered nurses, enrolled nurses will treat these matters seriously. The NMBA is responsible for and midwives to use the best available Any published anti-vaccination the regulation of the nursing and evidence in making practice decisions. material and/or advice which is false, midwifery professions, and has This includes providing information to misleading or deceptive which is being approved registration standards, the public about public health issues.” distributed by a registered nurse, codes and guidelines and competency This particularly refers to its social enrolled nurse or midwife (including standards that define the Board’s media policy and guidelines for via social media) may also constitute a summary offence under the National Law and could result in prosecution by Australian Health Practitioners The house from Hell - a renovator’s delight Regulation Agency.” . USA: The infamous Amityville square foot Dutch Colonial home house that featured in books and with five-bedrooms, three-and-a-half 17 (soon to be 18!) films about the bathrooms and a boathouse (ghosts SPECIAL OFFER horrific ‘events’ that supposedly took not included?). place there in 1974 – virtually all of Originally bought in 2010 for for Subscribers which have been debunked – has sold US$950,000 (the original asking Australian Skeptics is offering for US$850,000. price was US$1.15 million), the subscribers to the hard copy What the AOL Finance site calls “a current seller put the house back edition of The Skeptic an whopping price tag” – they obviously on the market last June, asking for additional digital copy for free. don’t live in Sydney – actually US$850,000. The new owner has not Many of our subscribers have indicates a drop in value for the 5000 been publicly named. already taken up this offer. If But if past history you are not doing so but would is a guide, if you are interested in living in like to get the free digital copy, a not-haunted house then email the editor on then you probably only [email protected] need to wait a few years and we’ll adjust your – the Amityville house subscription accordingly. has had a steady stream Note, this offer is only open of inhabitants since to subscribers to the hard copy “the terrible events” of 1974, but no owner has (paper) edition and is limited remained in the home to one free digital copy per for more than ten years subscriber. before selling. . 8 THEM The Skeptic December 16 Readers’ indigestible Tim Mendham looks at those ‘other’ websites, where skeptics will find something of interest.

his issue, we continue our review of websites of a skeptical or unskeptical Tnature. Ok, this time, it’s a skeptical one, or at least it comes from a fraternity which, by and large, has always held a similar view to that of skeptics regarding the paranormal and those who claim ‘special’powers.

Kent will probably admit it’s not Don’t you the most excitingly designed site, but it is a sort of central sorting house of much magical information. From know it’s magic links to magician’s associations, where to buy tricks, and contact details for Those NSW Skepticsof a greyer party (the horror, the horror) – are more magicians then you can poke a hue will probably recall the bevy of anything but unethical. wand at, to historical information. magicians who regularly performed So, back to the bevy of magicians While being largely Sydney/NSW for Skeptical audiences. in NSW. There were three who were oriented, you will find potted bios of People have often been amazed most often in front of Skeptical magicians from First Fleeter William (or at least bemused) that Skeptics audiences. The sadly missed Steve Fraser the Convict Conjuror (a would enjoy magic so much. Surely, Walker would normally play the blacksmith fond of payment in spirits they ask, you don’t like being fooled. MC role and make audiences groan – the drinking kind – and father of You’d want to look behind the scenes, with some appallingly bad funny the second European child born in take a trick apart and see all of its jokes. Steve performed at our very the colony) to the 1940s escapologist component parts. first convention. The second member partners the Udinis. As an aside, it’s The answer, of course, is that of the group is Peter Rodgers, still interesting to note that the farewell Skeptics have always loved magic. extant though no longer performing performance of the Udinis was held This issue of The Skeptic has a (unless you catch him at a Skeptics at a speedway that featured “midget number of items on magic. And, dinner where he can’t help but pull cars, motor cycles, pony speed tests, honestly, one of the founders of out a pack of cards and start ripping vaudeville”. Such is the nature of the modern them in half). Peter is a mine of magic in Australia – it’s not always is a magician … er, sorry James … information on magic. glamour and glitz. a conjuror. The thing is magicians The third person, though less Some of the bios are quite don’t cheat, they don’t pretend to regular than Steve and Peter, was extensive, while others are about as have special supernatural powers (or Kent Blackmore. Kent used to do a minimal as you can get: “Monday, they shouldn’t claim to), and they spooky mock séance to call up the 12 December. Before RW Shadworth have been extremely useful in putting spirit of Houdini. That was some Esq, PM. Drunk - Thomas Carr, alias those people who do make such time ago, and it is a pleasure to the Wizard of the South, was charged claims to the test. see that Kent is still around. That’s with being drunk, and discharged.” As magicians have often said, probably no news to magicians – the The longest bio is that of they could make a lot more money brother/sisterhood is a tight group. Oscar “Dante” Eliason, who was being pretend than genuine But to run-of-the-mill Skeptics, Kent accidentally shot in the stomach and magicians, but that would be hasn’t been seen that much in those died with a glass of champagne in his unethical, and the vast majority circles of late. hand. of magicians – from Las Vegas Of particular interest here is Kent’s Well worth a read for every fan of performers to someone blowing website devoted to magicians of magic, and even for those who are balloon animals at a kid’s birthday Sydney – www.sydneymagic.net. not (if any such person exists). .

9 REPORT Melbourne Convention 2016

MEET UP in MELBOURNE Jessica Singer and Martin Hadley report on the 32nd Australian Skeptics National Convention where speakers discussed their experiences and the lessons learned, with advice on how to do-your-own activism.

hirty-two years of consecutive conventions is a He set the Melbourne convention rolling with his views record among skeptical groups. And over those three on how to best promote the skeptical viewpoint. plus decades, a multitude of topics and approaches “I try to teach a process of thinking, not conclusions. Thave been covered. Among the discussions on I want to lead people around the ‘domain of their beliefs’ and the paranormal, astrologers and psychics, quacks and to prompt reconsideration. I like the metaphor of the tricksters, the perennials have always been health, science and approaching asteroid: better to push it; not explode it.” skeptical activism. This means he needs to engage which involves, among This year’s event held at Melbourne University in late other things, being willing to interview “horrible people”. November, with the theme of Good Thinking, was no “Skeptics should be prepared to spend money different, but the additional benefit was hearing from those encountering psychics and similar experiences. It is not who had worked and toiled on the frontline, in some cases wasted money. Think of it as the price of admission to a putting at risk their own health and wellbeing. They offered useful experience. When you see people approaching tarot sage and practical advice on how to achieve success or at least readers or health quacks, try to find an understanding of the minimise the damage from those who would promote and suffering that drives them to such people. purvey unscientific, unproven, misleading, misrepresentative “When it comes to harnessing the energies of skeptics in and downright fraudulent cures, solutions and theories. the community, I don’t tell them what to do. I ask for help. Michael ‘Marsh’ Marshall [photo #1] is co-founder of People will respond when they know what is needed.” Merseyside Skeptics in the UK, a podcaster, vice-president That set the stage for one of the key themes of the event, of the QED convention, and project director of the Good and that is skeptical activism – how it manifests, and how to Thinking Society, a skeptical group set up by . manage it. 10 ———————–––––––– ACTIVISM Therapy for the TGA Skepticamp Noted skeptical activist and campaigner on complementary and alternative medicine, Ken Harvey’s [2] presentation How effective that action will be is yet What is acceptable medical evidence was an exercise in barely restrained anger to be made clear, as Vickers confirmed for the claim that chiros make, he asked. and frustration at the continuing saga of that chiropractors continue to make The checklist for a reliable trial is: the Therapeutic Goods Administration claims that cannot be substantiated or • Placebo controlled. as a toothless tiger. that propose treatments that could be • Blinded. From 2002-2014, there have dangerous. • Randomised. been 16 reviews of the rules of TGA. His presentation on that • Large number of patients. All have made the point that it is specific situation, which was titled • Independent. meaningless to have a regulatory system “Chiropractors crack me up!”, gave • Peer reviewed. without penalties. a glimpse into the quiet dedication • Results can be replicated. So what has happened since then? and persistence that is required when With , those criteria are Another review in 2015, the 17th. wading through literally hundreds of often poorly met, if at all. A search And this latest review has already chiropractors’ websites to assess the of the papers relied upon by chiros met with government recalcitrance, claims and the content. as evidence for effective treatment of rejecting recommendations for greater Chiropractic was founded 120 years asthma showed only two clinical trials control in favour of opening up huge gaps in what is good for suppliers versus what is good for consumer. “What do we want?” Harvey asked. “Mandatory labelling, a better resourced system, and enforcement.” The complaint system is drawn out and ineffective, he said, with the result that there is a loss of trust, and potential harm to consumers. “The TGA operates in isolation and 1 2 3 appears to be too close to the industry; it fails to target sponsors or insist on ago by Daniel Palmer, a former magnetic that were worth scrutinising, and both corrections; it lacks transparency. healer influenced by the beginnings of produced negative results. Doing this Our preferred model would be a (and who apparently received exercise for conditions other than statutory body that is part of the the principles of chiropractic “from asthma produces similar results, Vickers Australian Competition & Consumer the other world”). There are now 4800 said. Commission.” registered chiropractors in Australia, At least that body has teeth. of whom 2700 belong to the largest Online activism professional body, the Chiropractors’ Stop the AVN [4-7] is one of the most Catching out the chiros Association of Australia. There are effective activist skeptical groups in During the Convention, the accredited degree courses in chiropractic Australia; in fact, it has influenced announcement was made of the Skeptic at RMIT, , Central groups overseas to follow its successful of the Year for 2016. This year there Queensland University, and Macquarie path. were joint winners – one was Ken University. SAVN was founded in 2009 by Harvey and the other was Mal Vickers. Vickers looked at the various claims dedicated volunteers following the death Vickers [3] is a long-time member made for chiropractic, in particular the of four-week old Dana McCaffrey from of the Vic Skeptics. The Harvey/ supposed evidence to support claims pertussis, and the subsequent attack on Vickers team has waged an ongoing and that chiro can be used to treat asthma, the McCaffreys by anti-vaccinationists. effective campaign against misleading a prevalent condition that hit front It was set up as a Facebook group, claims and practices of chiropractors, page headlines recently with the deaths and is not affiliated with any other forcing the Australian Health of a number of people from asthma groups, such as Australian Skeptics or Practitioner Regulation Agency and the brought on by dust and pollen storms in the Friends of Science in Medicine, Chiropractic Board of Australia to act. Melbourne. though there is some membership 1103 REPORT Melbourne Convention 2016

lack of a reporting system for chiros, funding. Ken McLeod, one of the Meet Up in advocating TCM to be evidence- founders, adds that “However the anti- based and influencing how the journal vaxers are making millions out of this, Melbourne Vaccine accepts articles. SAVN has a and it’s just not fair!” Continued... scientific paper published about every His concluding advice? “Don’t bring 6 months. cranks and liars into the tent and give • Investigation of the percentage of them the credibility they don’t deserve. chiros who are anti-vaccination – Many cranks are now on the fringe of overlap. Those present were Wendy possibly as many as two-thirds of the society but we still have a job for life.” Wilkinson [4], David Hawkes [5], profession. As Margaret Thatcher said, “You Tracey McDermott [6] and Ken All SAVN’s people are volunteers. It may have to fight a battle more than McLeod [7]. receives no government or ‘big pharma’ once to win it.” The original aim of SAVN was to But McLeod added: “You do not “put the Australian Vaccination Network need special skills to do what SAVN has in its place”. Since its foundation SAVN, done; anyone can do it.” alone or in partnership with others, has had a major impact on the AVN. These UK experience include Marshall returned to the lectern to • Scrutinised by the NSW Health Care give his take on activism, in this case Complaints a campaign by the Good Thinking • Charitable status revoked by the Society against funding of homeopathy NSW Office of Liquor Gaming & by the UK National Health Scheme. Racing. 4 He initially outlined some of the • Forced to make a name change to absurdities of homeopathy. more properly reflect its position - “Some of the ingredients for the Australian Vaccination-skeptics homeopathic preparations are Network. concerning or nonsensical: animal • The AVN has seen a huge drop in parts; human body parts; colours; fire; donations and income, possibly by Lourdes water etc. as much as 90 per cent, from an “I investigated a preparation made approximate income of $2.8 million from ‘owl’. The preparation was made overall. from owl feathers. Is it for people who • The AVN is now often criticised by 5 are allergic to owls? No, it is for people media instead of being seen as an who are beginning to take on the authoritative source of information. features of owls, such as not sleeping at It is no longer a safety watchdog or night. It is an insomnia cure.” concerned community group, and Re the NHS, prescription funding media mentions are close to a quarter is not supposed to be provided for a of what they were a few years ago. product: While the AVN remains an issue, • If it does not work; albeit a greatly diminished one, SAVN • If it is no better than an existing is now looking at the anti-vaccination cheaper drug; movement more generally. In this area, • If it is already available over the its achievements include: counter; or • An amendment to the HCCC 6 • If the costs are high compared to the Act - complaints can now be made benefit. by concerned organisations or “Homeopathy fails all of those, individuals, not just ‘victims’. so we put pressure on the NHS to • Aroused public opposition to withdraw prescription funding.” American anti-vaccinationist Sheryl Through a process of freedom of Tenpenny’s tour - it was cancelled information applications, Marshall’s three weeks after being announced. team found a number of NHS clinical • Correction of the “false balance” commissioning groups that were fallacy in the media. funding homoeopathy subscriptions. • Publication of papers concerning In some, these were miniscule human papillomavirus vaccine, the amounts, but in others the amount 12 7 The Skeptic December 16

skeptical organisations in the UK. The goal there is to “flush out who can help; to link up with people who have ideas. We must tell our story in the language our audience wants to hear.” Edzard Ernst [8], co-writer of the book Trick or Treatment, and former professor of complementary medicine at Exeter University (until he became embroiled in a conflict with Prince Charles over homeopathy - see report on his separate presentation) said that it is important to understand 8 why people seek CAM. “The patients are craving the things they don’t get from their doctor. Some CAM practitioners are good at dealing with F r i n g e people, even if they are not good at B e n e f i t s treating people. “Most homeopaths are s with all Skeptics conventions, unqualified. We cannot tell them Athere is a range of events that to go back to medical school and add colour and calories to the general get more training. Most CAM mood of the gathering, bringing practitioners are well-motivated. They indulgence and information together feel threatened because they can only in a feast of fun and facts. do one thing and people are talking This year there was a trivia about taking that away from them. competition on Thursday night, a 9 If you take a syringe from a GP, they Skepticamp during the Friday put can do other things. Take the needles on by the University of Melbourne from an acupuncturist and they are Secular Society (and featuring short out of a job.” presentations by Edzard Ernst, Deanne Carson [9], co-founder of Lawrence Krauss, Lynne Kelly, Michael Body Safety Australia and consultant Marshall, and others). Ken Harvey and to the organisation Fairness in two of his students, Sasha Hall & Tiana Religions in Schools, said that FIRIS Moutafis, unveiled their “Whack-a- uses social media to contact parents mole” project, designed to help people and ascertain their skills. “We build lodge a complaint with the TGA about relationships with media people. unethical promotion of therapeutic However, not all media can be goods and services. trusted.” Friday evening was devoted to 10 Ernst added that the best way a social “meet and greet” where to avoid being misquoted is, when attendees mingled with speakers of funding was significant, reaching asked for an interview, respond: “I over a drink and some unidentifiable approximately four million pounds am travelling but I would like to nibbles. overall. Following presentations by help you through email.” That way On the Saturday night, mid- and others to you have evidence of what your convention, was the more formal reviews, these commissioning groups response was and can prove you were dinner, held in the Leopard Room of are now gradually withdrawing from misquoted if it occurs. the Melbourne Zoo (no leopards in funding homeopathy, and hopefully Heidi Robertson [10], co-founder sight, however). This included the spending that money on more of the Northern Rivers Vaccination presentation of the annual awards and efficacious treatments. Supporters group, said NRVS is a entertainment from the MC Nicholas good example of the use of social Johnson (thrilling the audience as he Community engagement media. “We were concerned at low did in 2014 by hammering a nail into Marshall continued as a member of vaccination rates locally – only 47 per his nose). the panel on community engagement. cent in the Macleay area - so there is Indulgence all round. . He said there were about 40 separate no herd immunity. 13 REPORT Melbourne Convention 2016

Meet Up in ———————–––––––– Melbourne HEALTH AND MEDICINE Continued... Mental health Jo Alabaster [11], BSc candidate and science communicator, pointed out that one in five Australians experience mental illness. “If you have not “A lot of people in our area follow experienced it, you probably know 11 alternative lifestyles. That is OK someone who has.” and we do not criticise alternative The effects on the sufferer can be lifestyles. If people want to vaccinate drastic - physical or social or both - and while eating organic food and using there are many myths about it: cloth nappies, fine by us. But we • “Mentally ill people are violent.” had to quickly develop a thick skin Those who commit violent crimes [considering the demographics of are often found to have a history the area and the response to their of mental illness, so the public activities]. establishes a false correlation. Most “So we started with a Facebook mentally ill people are non-violent group; mostly mums and dads and and are more likely to be the victims

some health professionals. We set up of violence than the perpetrators. 12 open as well as closed FB pages where Substance abuse is now a common people can feel safe from harassment. cause of violent crime, and substance “Our aim is to present credible abuse is not confined to the mentally accurate information, including ill. information about the reliability of • “Eating disorders result from websites. People like Meryl Dorey narcissism.” Eating disorders are not who founded the AVN are a dripping confined to vain, young, middle class tap of misinformation. We are a women. The disorders usually result bucket under the tap trying to stop from self-loathing, not narcissism. the spread, while SAVN tries to stop • “Schizophrenics have two the drip in the first place.” personalities.” Simply, the truth is 13 Ken Harvey said “We use the more complicated. peak bodies to ‘get up into the • “The mentally ill lack strength and political level’. We need to go from need to pull themselves together.” Weird treatments community to political levels. Use The experiences of returned soldiers Retired American family physician and community engagement to make a refutes this. PTSD sufferers were and former US Air Force flight surgeon good case – communities are voters, are often brave soldiers and require [12] brought a refreshing after all. Media engagement is also additional strength to face their perspective to the often vexed and crucial to get the message out.” illness. worrisome area of alternative medicine. So how do we best engage the • “Medication for mental illness is “You can’t help laughing at some wider community? bad.” Online misinformation is quack products,” she said. If you We need to understand the rife eg that medication is mind thought vitamins went only as far as ‘other side’, eg attend events control or can prompt killing sprees. ‘K’, then discover Vitamin O. It turns like Mind Bod Spirit, attend Medication plays a valuable part in out to be oxygen dissolved in water. community consultations, to get an treatment. Four or five drops placed on food will understanding. Her advice for dealing with others? boost the blood oxygen of the user. It is a case of trial and error to get Don’t attribute opposing points of Except that five drops volume of pure communication right. There is a huge view to the person being unbalanced or oxygen would make no measurable appetite for health stories – if we irrational. Don’t oversimplify. difference. And Vitamin O was found can engage and harness this, we can “Prof Elizabeth Loftus has shown to contain no oxygen. improve communication. how false memories can be planted. But The sellers of Vitamin O responded Learn how to write/tell a story that to the sufferer, the memories are real. to this damning assessment, saying that the journalists want. And know your While the memory is false, the sufferer the equipment could only measure up media and what their priorities are. still has problems deserving sympathy.” to 40ppm oxygen, whereas Vitamin O 14 The Skeptic December 16

contains much more. But why couldn’t thinking it was normal medicine.” huge and the research was to be proper the equipment detect the first 40 parts? He obtained his MD in Munich in and rigorous. The Clinical trial of Vitamin O was 1977. His first posting in 1978 was to But the results have disappeared. even sillier and led to Harriet’s article a homeopathic hospital. “We practiced “A doctor who was involved has “Oxygen is good for you even when cupping, homeopathy, , told me that the results were negative it is not there”. Tests to ‘prove’ its leech therapy etc.” and were destroyed by homeopathic efficacy had been done in a Hutterite He later moved to a position doing sympathisers. community, with no protocol, no basic research in London and “I began “In Vienna I was well paid but informed consent, risky arterial blood thinking differently. I soon had a foot trapped. It was a ‘gilded cage’. I tests. “The results were physiologically in both camps.” escaped to a post at Exeter University impossible” and Hall suspects they may He took a position leading a team researching alternative medicine. I have been fabricated. at the Vienna Medical School. He formulated a mission statement to Other great medical discoveries: had to oversee the movement to a make clear that I wanted to research • Indonesian Railroad therapy - Lie new building, and his opening speech efficacy of alternative treatments. We with your head on one rail and was to be about the history of the researched 38 subjects.” your feet on the other. Use only as department. “I looked into that but directed and cease before next train could not find any documents prior to arrives. 1938. I was told that the documents • Tong Ren acupuncture doll - Save had been lost and I was advised not to on acupuncturist bills and feel the investigate how and why. GET THE FACTS! benefit as you stick needles into a But this piqued his interest: “If Visit our new website doll instead of yourself. anyone says don’t do that, I will do it.” • Ancestor bands - With a passing He discovered that significant work www.skeptics.com.au resemblance to Powerbalance had been done on anatomy by Eduard wristbands, the frequencies Pernkopf, an Austrian professor of embedded in these allow you to anatomy who later served as rector connect with your ancestors (if that of the University of Vienna. He is is what you’d really like to do). best known for his seven-volume • Magnetic mattress pads – “Negative anatomical atlas, Topographische magnetism is greater at night because Anatomie des Menschen (translated the moon is out.” as Atlas of Topographical and Applied Considering how stupid these and Human Anatomy; often colloquially other such treatments are, is it wrong known as the Pernkopf atlas or just to ridicule people? Yes, she says, Pernkopf), prepared by Pernkopf and but ridicule the sellers - “dishonest four artists over a 20-year period. sleazebags” – and not the customers. While it is considered a scientific and Make an effort to understand why artistic masterpiece, with many of people believe and how our minds its colour plates reprinted in other work. publications and textbooks, in recent Don’t call people stupid or crazy, but years it has been dogged by questions don’t be afraid to laugh if something is about whether Pernkopf and the funny. Not wanting to hurt someone’s artists working for him, all of them feelings is condescending. ardent Nazis, used concentration Don’t be too pessimistic about camp inmates or condemned political such nonsense; if better directed, prisoners as their subjects. such creativity can lead to great “When the Nazis took over, 95 per achievements … possibly. cent of the staff had been fired and the And why do some people not rest were not encouraged to return, believe? “Obviously skeptics are even after the war.” mutants.” Nazi leaders Rudolf Hess and The latest news, events, Heinrich Himmler were passionate A scientist in wonderland followers of homeopathy. They opinions, back issues Edzard Ernst gave an overview of his initiated the largest research program professional and personal experience. ever done up to that time. They and good stuff! Born in Germany, his family physician employed the best available scientists, was a homeopath, “So I grew up not just homeopaths. The budget was 15 REPORT Melbourne Convention 2016

articles, books and, of X-ray - the x factor Meet Up in course, presenting to skeptical Emma Miley [14] has been working conventions. in the area of health for the last “many, Melbourne many years”. Her look at the use of Continued... Demolishing poo-woo x-rays in chiropractic and the lack of As a sufferer from MS with a son who control in public/private clinics when has high functioning autism, Dr Mel chiros request x-rays was a sobering Thomson [13] noticed a great deal of review of qualified versus ‘less’ qualified bullshit in social media about wonder use of technology that should be treated Key among these subjects was cures. with proper care. homeopathy. The founder of Thomson is a former university Radiographers and chiropractors homeopathy, Samuel Hahnemann, researcher and now general manager use x-rays for different purposes: thought it was “a sublime revelation of education, skills and events for radiographers to assess bone structure of an eternal law”. Now a Melbourne MTPConnect, a medical industry alignment, abnormalities, confirmation homeopathic clinic advertises that “A innovation and growth centre. of diagnosis, while chiropractors trained practitioner can treat virtually She ran through a number of to detect ‘subluxations’. Unlike any ailment”. Homeopaths claim current fashionable medical products radiographers, chiropractors’ use of proudly that they treat the patient, not and approaches. x-rays is at their own behest. the disease. “It has become trendy to use gut Between radiographers and It was here that Ernst’s attitude to microbes to cure everything,” she said. chiropractors, there are large differences: homeopathy changed dramatically. “It is all about our ‘microbiome’ – ‘the • Chiropractors usually have less “We must bear in mind that the missing link to all health’.” training in how to take and interpret assumptions might be wrong but the BioMat is a product that treats gut images; treatments might still work.” health with infrared generated by an • Chiropractors take more images; Early studies appeared to support amethyst. “It’s essentially a posh electric they often re-image patients after efficacy compared to ‘allopathic’ blanket.” It’s claimed to have FDA a few months, often with little or medicine, he said. “The reason is approval, but that is false. no medical justification, whereas that allopathic treatments were often The latest thing is faecal microbial radiographers only re-image if there harmful, such as blood-letting.” transplants. Yes, that is what it sounds is a change in images. By now we have about 500 like. FMT is a procedure in which • Chiropractors take their own images; controlled clinical trials. The faecal matter, or stools, is collected • Radiographers work on a risk/benefit techniques of interpretation differ, but from a tested donor, mixed with a principle; if the homeopathic treatment under saline or other solution, strained, and • Radiographers have years of training, review turns out to be no better than placed in a patient by colonoscopy, including in a clinical environment placebo, homeopaths regard this as endoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, or enema. and on the job; chiropractors do “inconclusive” while in truth that result Thomson says there is some merit one to two subjects of imaging and is “negative”. in using it for certain conditions like training, with two hours a week of “It is wrong to think that if it has inflammatory bowel disease, but there training over 10-20 weeks. no effect, it is harmless. If used as an are not enough systematic trials yet • Radiographers have continued alternative for an effective treatment, to tell. Nonetheless claims are that it professional development even a harmless substance can be life- can be used for autism, MS, asthma, requirements, with constant threatening.” arthritis. quality assurance within a practice; In the UK, homeopathy adherent “The Power of Poop” website gives chiropractors self-refer and self- Prince Charles commissioned the DIY instructions for FMT, including assess. Smallwood report of 2005, which a shopping list and advice on how to It is a worry. suggested that 48 million UK choose your donor. pounds could be cut from the NHS “You really can’t make this shit up!” Zika virus if GPs would use homoeopathy. If you really want to go down this Ross Balch [15] is a medical researcher Ernst withdrew from the study, and path, Thomson recommends that you and former president of the Brisbane reported interim results to The Times. use someone trusted. “If you don’t . He looked at the origin A complaint was made to the Vice share bodily fluids with them, you of the Zika virus and the mystery of Chancellor of the university that he probably don’t want to take poo from breakouts. had breached confidentiality. He was them.” Zika is a zoonotic virus that will be investigated for 13 months, cleared, Volunteers are being sought for a transmitted from animal to mosquito but nonetheless had to retire. trial in South Australia of FMTs to back to animal and so on. If the virus He is still active – blogging, writing treat ulcerative colitis. breaks from an animal to humans, 16 The Skeptic December 16

then a new cycle is created: human to schools. 1872 legislation required mosquito to human etc. education to be “free, compulsory Mosquitos are said to be the vector and secular”. A 1928 amendment of Zika but humans are the true vector. introduced religious education, but A mosquito can only travel a few outside of class times. In the 1950s this hundred metres in its life. An infected was changed to having short religious human can go further and then infect instruction inside class times. Since mosquitos in a new area. then there have been false starts at There are, as one might expect, a reform. number of myths about the disease: “Many parents do not understand 14 • Genetically-modified mosquitoes what SRE is. They do not realise that it caused Zika in Brazil. (Unfortunately can include proselytising.” for the myth, GM mosquitoes are Instructors from Access Ministries, always male which don’t bite, not to one of the key providers of SRE in mention that mosquitoes have not Victoria, were detected encouraging been released near the areas where their people to use SRE to “make Zika has been found.) disciples”. • It is caused by insecticide. This started to change in Victoria • Zika can be purchased on the in 2014 when parents got involved internet and there is a connection at a grassroots level. “We got policy with the Rockefeller Foundation. changed - parents had to actively • It was thought that US citizens were opt-in to SRE and school principals immune. However, Floridans have were given discretion whether to allow been infected, including some who SRE in schools or not. SRE was then have never left that state. removed from being taught in class 15 • Coffee is an insect repellent. time. • Zika has been engineered to wipe The current situation is that, of 1000 out the world. schools, 300 are offering SRE, with The reality is that Zika originated student participation down to 15 per in Africa in the 1930s. It spread to cent. Indonesia, Micronesia and then Brazil The lesson: an entrenched system in South America. The link between can be changed by careful, targeted Zika and microcephaly has been action. confirmed. There is a real increase but Carson looked at SRE in primary that’s not because of better reporting of schools in NSW. an unchanged problem. She was asked to look into SRE texts for years 9 and 10 which ———————–––––––– included religious books about sex 16 education in contravention of NSW EDUCATION, HISTORY Dept of Education policy. These AND SCIENCE were proselytising volumes that also contravened best practice education. God in the classroom She said there was “A revelation of The situation regarding special religious bizarre material included in Anglican education (SRE) in state schools was texts supposedly for sex education. discussed by Meredith Doig [16], These were written as if Adam and professional company director and Eve were real individuals created governance consultant as well as to demonstrate God’s plan, which 17 president of the Rationalist Society of definitely does not include same sex Australia, and Deanne Carson. attraction. Doig looked at SRE in primary “Some books were withdrawn but schools in Victoria. This has been the battle goes on.” a controversial issue for 150 years. She suggested that the situation In 1869, a Royal Commission should be grassroots, with a non- recommended that there should be emotional, evidence-based approach. no religious education in government Doig said to try different arenas - 17 REPORT Melbourne Convention 2016

Science history skeptics in the world. An American Meet Up in Tim Harding [18] has a background in theoretical physicist and cosmologist biological and environmental science, who is Foundation Professor of the Melbourne and has now turned to studying history School of Earth and Space Exploration Continued... and philosophy. at Arizona State University, and His presentation looked at the birth director of its Origins Project, he set of experimental science in ancient and out to explain the universe, its history, medieval times. its consistent parts, and the role of Science at this time was seen as science in all of this. legal avenues, approach politicians, a branch of philosophy; literally so The universe is the same in all approach celebrities, media stunts. on Aristotle’s tree of knowledge. He directions, the same temperature. It has Overall, this was a good news story stressed that “Lovers of science should 100 billion galaxies, each containing with positive results, but that doesn’t not denigrate philosophy but should on average 100 billion stars. Thinking mean you can take your eye off the appreciate its historical role in creating about this “takes us away from our ball. Religious influence on politicians scientific method.” petty problems”. is still strong, and vigilance is required The Greeks sought the truth; .they Using a Hubble image as guide, he to ensure that the education system were fond of theory but were reluctant pointed out that some galaxies are 9 does not fall back into its old ways. to experiment. In contrast, the Romans billion light years away. Given the life Ancient sophistication Researcher and science writer Lynne Kelly [17] gave a whistle-stop tour of her theory of how non-literate societies, whether ancient or modern, could store all of the information they need to survive and succeed. This is the subject of her book, The Memory Code, and has been extensively covered in the media and

in The Skeptic (Vol 36, no 3, pp52- 18 19 20 54). Basically the idea is that in hunter- did not pride themselves on being of galaxies, many galaxies in the image gatherer societies, the landscape is used theoretical or philosophical - they no longer exist. to encode knowledge. When humans achieved fine and practical advances in For the period up until about started to settle into agricultural technology, such as concrete. 380,000 years after the Big Bang, societies, they needed permanent sites Agricultural and military advances the universe was opaque; you can’t in which to encode information, using continued during the Dark Ages. observe beyond that point with light. details as mnemonic devices. The The growing number of universities Something else is needed. Enter gravity ditches around Stonehenge are just led to a proliferation of manuscripts waves. one example of how this procedure from the 12th century. The work of Sound and light are produced had been used. But the technique can Robert Grosseteste (d.1253) and Roger by things moving; gravity waves are be applied just as well in your own Bacon (d.1292) is in line with modern produced by matter moving. They everyday life - Kelly uses a house and scientific method. Bacon’s Opus sweep over us constantly but are too the objects it holds as one ‘trigger’ to Major (c1267) covered principles of weak to be felt. retrieve information that could be experimental science and he is generally Gravity waves from before the 380K useful or simply of interest, such as regarded as the founder of experimental point have been predicted, but only details of nations of the world. science. recently has equipment been built that She said that Skeptics are the best A more detailed version of his is capable of observing them. people to try out such theories, but presentation can be found in the article Tests were run on a new system she is intrigued to see how new agers “Out of the Dark” in The Skeptic, Vol using long antennae positioned at might react. 36, no 3, pp32-34. right angles. In September 2015 it Readers can see The Skeptic article was turned on. Almost immediately for more details and the implications Universal truths gravity wave signals were detected. He of her theory, which has already been With his usual enthusiasm and admitted that this was a lucky break widely and positively reviewed in the trademark sneakers, Lawrence Krauss - had the system been turned on half scientific community. [19] is one of the highest-profile an hour earlier or later, then there may 18 The Skeptic December 16

have been a long wait for the waves to He says that this is the kind of attitude, maintain multiple hypotheses, be detected. anomaly that has led many people to welcome new argument/evidence, One detected signal created two question whether the plays attributed incrementally update, and manage schools of thought about its meaning, to Shakespeare were written by the emotional biases. with each regarding the other as Shakespeare of Stratford-on-Avon. “We can’t abolish or neutralise wrong. But instead of fighting “like “This isn’t a conspiracy,” he emotions,” he said, “but we can competing religions”, they agreed on said, “but a serious and fascinating change emotions. We can try different a joint analysis. The result was 92 per question.” emotional positions.” cent confidence that this was a signal There are three main candidates And perhaps try different positions of the Big Bang. Good huh? But no. In – William Shakespeare (the one we as to the authorship of Shakespeare’s science, 92 per cent equates to “don’t ‘know’), Edward de Vere and Sir plays. know, let’s keep working”. Henry Neville. de Vere died 10 years “Science never proves things to too early to have written all of the Philosophy extant be right. It only proves things to be plays attributed to Shakespeare. The Peter Bowditch [21] is a writer, IT wrong,” he said. And this applies to Shakespeare of Stratford on Avon has consultant, TAFE teacher, journalist and scientific endeavour at all levels, even the same name as our ‘agreed’ author, “general all-round polymath and know- those over billions of years and billions with the same life span, and was an it-almost-all” He is also a self-professed of miles. actor and part owner of a theatre ratbag, which is the name of his website. company. But, van Gelder says, he did He cited Bill Nye recently gaining not have the education, life experience notoriety through a YouTube video or resources to produce the canon of claiming that science has rendered Shakespearean plays. philosophy dead. “He did not know Neville is a more recent candidate what he was talking about.” and van Gelder says he is the most Such comments reveal a fundamental plausible. misunderstanding of what philosophy de Vere and Neville both had an is and its relationship to other forms incentive not to reveal authorship – of intellectual activity, including they were nobles, and nobles didn’t do science, Bowditch said. Yes, there is that sort of thing. disagreement even among philosophers

21 So, back to the question of who of science about the interaction between wrote the Shakespearean works? philosophy and science (and even what ———————–––––––– He used analysis of the evidence to science is), “but this does not justify demonstrate Bayes Theorem in action: total dismissal of the oldest form of PHILOSOPHY • Nothing is true or false. intellectual enquiry we have”. • Regard everything as more or less Bowditch said that his talk wasn’t Playwrights and epistemology probable. going to be a defence of philosophy Tim van Gelder [20] is an applied • Maintain multiple hypotheses. from the barbarians, but a warning epistemologist plying his trade in a • Welcome new arguments. about an error that scientists, skeptics small Melbourne consulting firm. The lessons for skeptics? and even philosophers make when He has worked with a wide range The rational approach is not to arguing outside their sphere of of organisations, from intelligence become passionately attached to a knowledge – the use of strawman agencies through to the Hawthorn position or to treat the debate as war – arguments. “If you construct an Football Club. In 2001 he won the “that is not productive”. argument against something that your Australian Skeptics Eureka Prize for The challenge of epistemology is to opponent hasn’t said or doesn’t believe Critical Thinking. He says he is not a navigate through complex arguments all they have to do to win is say ‘You’re Shakespeare scholar, but the Bard was to get a true result, and the closest wrong’. a major component of his presentation system we have for doing this is Bayes “Know what you are arguing against. on probabilistic reasoning (“Two out Theorem. We all make the mistake, but it’s of three ain’t Bard” - he apparently also This comes down to two aspects: something that should be confined to specialises in Dad jokes.) likelihood (how probable is the ‘Them’, and never used by ‘Us’.” . He has followed literary paper trails outcome) and ‘prior’ (the probability for Elizabethan playwrights – their before evidence). educational records, correspondence, But people don’t use Bayesian theory ———————–––––––– patrons, death notices. Unfortunately in ordinary life; it’s too complicated. there is no such trail for Shakespeare van Gelder says we should be All photos by Mal Vickers, except those of Mal the playwright. basically Bayesian – probabilistic Vickers which were taken by Gracie Marcucci. 19 FEATURE Uncritical Thinking That’s A Good REASON Tim Harding asks, what is rationality, and is the irrational always wrong?

uses of rationality – only those relevant Reason is thought by rationalists to our use, that is, skepticism. to be more reliable in determining I would suggest that the context what is true, in contrast to reliance most relevant to skepticism (which on other factors such as authority, could be described as a form of applied tradition, instinct, intuition, emotion, philosophy) is that of rational belief, mysticism, superstition, faith, or because we skeptics often criticise the arbitrary choice (eg flipping a coin). beliefs of , quacks, cults, For example, we rationally determine and pseudo-sciences on the grounds the balance in our cheque book that they are irrational (which, of (between bank statements) by adding course, is the antonym of rational). up the credits and subtracting the However, the scientific context of a debits and bank fees. An irrational way ‘rational process’ is also relevant to of doing it would be to pick a number skepticism, and I will say more about at random – not very reliable, and this later. hat do we skeptics mean any correct answer would be a mere Wwhen we say that a belief coincidence, rather than the product FILTERED REASONING is irrational? How do we define of reasoning. In my view, the relevance of rational rationality and irrationality? Are there The ancient Greeks thought that belief to skepticism is that we use it as any objective tests of an irrational rationality distinguishes humans from a filter to determine what we should belief? other animals; “Man is a rational be skeptical about. We skeptics are not First, some definitions. Most animal” as Aristotle said. However, necessarily skeptical of everything. We dictionaries define rationality as the this distinction is becoming blurred by believe what it is rational to believe, state or quality of being rational. Not a recent research indicating that other and we are skeptical of beliefs that are lot of help. So what does it mean to be primate species such as chimpanzees known to be or appear to be irrational. rational? Once again, most dictionaries can show a limited use of reason and That is why I think it is important for define rational as being consistent with therefore a degree of rationality. skeptics to clarify and understand the or based on or using reason, which is The word ‘rational’ can be nature of rational belief. further defined as the mental ability to used in several different contexts. Harvard philosophy professor draw inferences or conclusions from For example, rational behaviour Robert Nozick has proposed two assumptions or premises (the ‘if – (psychology), rational or optimal criteria for rational belief: then’ connection). The application of decision (economics), a rational • support by reasons that make the reason is known as reasoning; the main process (science), and rational belief belief credible; and categories of which are deductive and (philosophy). However, it is not the • generation by a process that reliably inductive reasoning. purpose of this article to discuss all produces true beliefs. 20 The Skeptic December 16

Let’s try a couple of little thought reputable peer-reviewed scientific not necessarily false, we can say experiments. journals) that the element arsenic that because an irrational belief is Firstly, imagine if you will is toxic to all life on Earth even in unreliable and more likely to be false a primitive tribe in the remote very small concentrations. However, than a rational belief, we should mountains of New Guinea. The chief NASA-supported researchers therefore be more skeptical about of this tribe needs to predict whether have discovered the first known beliefs that are known to be or appear or not it is going to microorganism on to be irrational than about rational rain tomorrow so he The relevance of Earth able to thrive beliefs. can decide whether the “ and reproduce It is believed by some philosophers men will go hunting ratonal belief is that it using arsenic. The (notably AC Grayling) that a or not. So he consults filters what we should microorganism, rational belief must be independent the local witch doctor, which lives in of emotions, personal feelings or who according to long be skeptical about. California’s Mono any kind of instincts. Any process tradition slaughters a ” Lake, substitutes of evaluation or analysis that may chicken and examines arsenic for be called rational is expected to be Tim Harding asks, what is rationality, and is the the configuration of the dead chicken’s phosphorus in some of its cellular objective, logical and ‘mechanical’. entrails. Using this information, the components. If these minimum requirements are irrational always wrong? local witch doctor then predicts that Prior to this announcement by not satisfied, ie if a person has been it will not rain tomorrow. Is this a NASA, was it rational to believe that influenced by personal emotions, rational belief? arsenic is toxic to all life on Earth even feelings, instincts or culturally specific, In terms of Nozick’s criteria, we in very small concentrations? In terms moral codes and norms, then the would probably say that this belief of Nozick’s criteria, the answer would analysis may be termed irrational, due is irrational because it is neither be ‘yes’, even though we now know to the injection of subjective bias. supported by reasons that make the that belief was false. Was it rational So let us now look at some other belief credible, nor is it generated by to hold this belief after the NASA possible objective tests of irrational a process that reliably produces true announcement? beliefs. Given that the But what if this local witch doctor’s NASA scientific predictions, using the chicken entrail announcement process, have always been right? In is credible and that case, it could be argued that the was generated by process meets Nozick’s criterion No. reliable scientific 2. It could also be argued that because processes, our the New Guinea tribe have no school answer would be education, and believe that rain and ‘no’. the configuration of a chicken’s entrails By these are caused by the same spirit, that two thought the reasons for the witch doctor’s experiments, I predictions are credible to them. have tried to show Does this alter our assessment of the how a rational rationality of this belief? Perhaps it process can lead does. to a belief which What if exactly the same process may be rational in is used by a hippie commune in certain contexts Nimbin, where residents have had or circumstances the benefit of a school education and yet turn out to be false. So truth belief, including logical fallacies, and therefore should be aware that is not necessarily an adequate test emotional or faith-based rather than there is no credible causal connection of a rational belief. In other words, evidence-based beliefs, beliefs based between the incidence of rain and the a rational belief is not necessarily on insufficient supporting evidence, configuration of a chicken’s entrails? true, and an irrational belief is not beliefs derived from confirmation bias, Do these different circumstances alter necessarily false. On the other hand, a beliefs incompatible with science and our assessment of whether the belief is rational belief needs to be reasonable internally incoherent beliefs. rational? Perhaps they do again. or credible in the circumstances; Secondly, until early December that is, a rational belief is one that is Logical fallacies 2010, it was believed by the scientific justified by reason. A logical fallacy is faulty reasoning community (and published in Although an irrational belief is in argumentation resulting in a 21 FEATURE Uncritical Thinking

the authority of revelation. Faith-based explain why arguments from reason That’s a belief without evidence is considered would be forbidden or ignored. to be a virtue by the religiously devout, Some relatively recent good reason but a ‘sin’ by rationalists. philosophers, most notably the logical Continued... Emotional, instinctive and faith- positivists, have denied that there based beliefs are held on grounds other is a domain of thought or human than evidence or reason, and according existence rightly governed by faith, misconception. A fallacious argument to the definitions given in the first part asserting instead that all meaningful can be deductively invalid or one that of this paper are irrational. This is not statements and ideas are accessible to has insufficient inductive strength. For to say that such beliefs are necessarily thorough rational examination. example, the argument that smoking wrong, bad, or undesirable – simply does not cause cancer based on the that they are not derived from reason. Insufficient supporting evidence anecdotal evidence of only one healthy Though theologies typically do Some beliefs are not necessarily smoker. not claim to be irrational, there is based on emotion or faith, and are By accident or design, fallacies often a perceived conflict or tension not entirely devoid of evidence, but may exploit emotional triggers in the between faith and tradition on the there is insufficient evidence to justify listener or interlocutor (eg appeal one hand, and reason on the other, the belief. Beliefs in UFOs, alien to emotion), or take advantage of as potentially competing sources abductions, and conspiracy theories social relationships between people of wisdom and truth. Defenders of such as the so-called Moon Landing (eg argument from authority). By traditions and faiths typically maintain Hoax fall into this category. definition, a belief arising from a logical fallacy is contrary to reason and Confirmation bias – is therefore irrational. Faith ... a stance cherry-picking the evidence “ Confirmation bias is a tendency for Emotional, instinctive or faith-based toward some claim that people to favour information that rather than evidence-based beliefs is not demonstrable by confirms their preconceptions or In western literature, reason is often reason. hypotheses regardless of whether opposed to emotions or instincts - ” the information is true. As a result, desires, fears, hates, drives, people gather evidence and recall or passions. Even in information from memory everyday speech, westerners selectively, and interpret it tend to say, for example, in a biased way. The biases that their passions made appear in particular for them behave contrary to emotionally significant reason, or that their reason issues, for established kept the passions under beliefs and for conspiracy control, often expressed theories. in colloquial terms as the For example, there is dilemma between following some evidence that in ‘the head’ (reason) or ‘the a very small number of heart’ (emotions). cases there are adverse Faith involves a stance reactions to some toward some claim that vaccines in some patients. is not, at least presently, But this argument demonstrable by reason. Thus faith is that there is no real conflict with against vaccination overlooks the a kind of attitude of trust or assent. reason, because reason itself is not overwhelming benefits of vaccination As such, it is ordinarily understood to enough to explain such things as the in preventing and in some cases involve an act of will or a commitment origins of the universe, or right and eradicating infectious diseases. In on the part of the believer. People do wrong, and so reason can and should other words, the anti-vaccination not usually have faith in something be complemented by other sources campaigners do not take into account they do not want to believe in. of knowledge. The counter claim to evidence contrary to their fixed Religious faith involves a belief that this is that there are actual conflicts beliefs. Thus the beliefs of anti- makes some kind of either an implicit between faith and reason (for instance, vaccination campaigners and some or explicit reference to a transcendent the Trial of Galileo, vs conspiracy theorists are based on source. The basis for a person’s faith evolution, stem-cell research, etc); faulty reasoning, and are therefore usually is understood to come from and such a defence does not logically irrational. 22 The Skeptic December 16

Incompatibility with science believe what it is rational to believe, It has long been held that rationality and we are skeptical of irrational requires rigorous rules for deciding beliefs. whether a proposition should A rational belief is not necessarily be believed. Formal logic and true, and an irrational belief is not mathematics provide the clearest necessarily false. On the other hand, a examples of such rules. Science has rational belief needs to be reasonable also been considered a model of or credible in the circumstances; rationality because it proceeds in that is, a rational belief is one that is accordance with scientific methods justified by reason. It needs to pass which provide the rules for gathering objective tests of irrationality. evidence and evaluating hypotheses Objective tests of irrational belief on the basis of this evidence. include logical fallacies, emotional or One of the main purposes of faith-based rather than evidence-based scientific methods is to eliminate beliefs, beliefs based on insufficient subjective biases and interfering supporting evidence, beliefs derived factors in order to test hypotheses. from confirmation bias, beliefs This is why scientists use techniques incompatible with science, internally such as controls and double blind incoherent beliefs and possibly other tests that we often hear about in tests. skeptical discussions. Although an irrational belief is Where a belief is incompatible with not necessarily false, we can say science, either the belief must be false that tomorrow is Wednesday is that because an irrational belief is or the science must be wrong – they incoherent and unjustified. unreliable and more likely to be false can’t both be right. For example, As an example of this, the claim than a rational belief, we should homeopathy is incompatible with the of homeopathy that ‘like cures like’ therefore be more skeptical about science of chemistry, water-divining is incoherent with the practice of beliefs that are known to be or appear is incompatible with the science of diluting substances to the point to be irrational than about rational physics, and astrology is incompatible where there is nothing but water in beliefs. . with the science of astronomy. On a homeopathic dose. Homeopathy this ground alone, pseudo-sciences makes no sense, or in other words is like these are irrational. internally incoherent and therefore REFERENCES irrational. We can all probably think Fieser, J. and Dowden, B. eds (2011) Internet Internally incoherent beliefs of other paranormal and pseudo- Encyclopaedia of Philosophy justification. It implies that for a incoherent and therefore irrational. Honderich, T. ed (2005) The Oxford Companion to belief to be justified it must belong Philosophy, 2nd edition. Oxford University to a coherent system of beliefs. For a SUMMARY Press, Oxford. system of beliefs to be coherent, the In summary, rationality is the state Nozick, R. (1993) The Nature of Rationality, beliefs that make up that system must or quality of being rational, which Princeton University Press, Princeton. ‘cohere’ with one another. In other means being consistent with or based words, some of a person’s justified on or using reason. beliefs are justified because they derive Reason is thought by rationalists their justification from other beliefs. to be more reliable in determining About the author: Take my belief that tomorrow what is true, in contrast to relying on Tim Harding BSc is Wednesday. That belief can be factors such as authority, tradition, has studied the history and justified by two other beliefs: my instinct, intuition, emotion, philosophy of science twice belief that today is Tuesday and my mysticism, superstition faith, or - many years ago as part of belief that Tuesday is immediately arbitrary choice. a science degree and more followed by Wednesday. But, if my The word rational can be used in recently as part of an arts belief that tomorrow is Wednesday several different contexts, but the degree at Monash University. derives its justification from these context most relevant to skepticism other beliefs, then my belief that is that of rational belief, because we tomorrow is Wednesday is justified use it as a filter to determine what we only if these other beliefs are justified. should be sceptical about. We skeptics If today is Monday, then my belief are not skeptical of everything. We 23 FEATURE Uncritical Thinking UNI Daze Universities are teaching it, funds are covering it, and the people are not trusting it. Diana Lucia is concerned about the play off between alt med and evidence-based health.

ationality, logic, and critical recently accepting a PhD thesis arguing alternative medicine therapies and Rthinking are the hallmark skills against Australia’s pro-vaccination regimes that lack scientific evidence and learned at universities across the policy on the premise of ‘freedom of credibility are usually met with eye rolls country, to the extent that they are opinion’. The spread of pseudoscience and scoffs by scientists and the scientific ingrained into their philosophy with the in society and academic institutions community. Studying branches of demarcation of knowledge under the has ignited a fiery debate, questioning alternative medicine has usually been umbrella of the sciences and the arts. not only the reputation of Australia’s reserved for privatised institutions with However, an alarming trend has universities but also where the a clever marketing strategy and hefty emerged in Australian universities boundaries of academic freedom lie, financial tag, with students spoon-fed where the pursuit of knowledge has and the implications of using taxpayer repackaged scientific concepts under the been hijacked by courses and degrees funding to teach students unproven guise of science. lacking credibility and promoting therapies. pseudoscience under the banner of With the international scientific CROSSING THE LINE science. credibility of Australian tertiary This has never been a significant matter Federally-funded universities education institutions being of debate, as a clear line has always are fast becoming a fertile ground undermined, we need to pose the been drawn in the sand, with scientists for alternative forms of medicine, question if scientific principles and and doctors armed with scientifically- science, and health sprouting courses evidence-based medicine is being proven and evidence-based medicine ranging across homeopathy, , diluted by pseudoscience in universities. staying on one side of the playground, , healing Throughout my studies and alternative medicine practitioners touch therapy, I have been trained that armed with sugar pills and healing and “ An alarming belief must be based on stones on the other. medicine. This trend where sufficient evidence where So when did the line in the sand has coincided with the observation, explanation, become so blurred? rise in popularity of the pursuit of experimental design, One predominant and significant alternative medicines knowledge has transparency, repeatability, factor is Australian universities offering and pseudoscientific and a thorough peer review courses in some form of alternative therapies, with many been hijacked.” process is the framework of therapy, including traditional Chinese eligible on private the scientific method. When , chiropractic, health insurance rebate. an hypothesis proves unsatisfactory, homeopathy, , reflexology Research and academia have not it is either modified and retested or and aromatherapy. Following is just a been immune to this phenomenon, discarded. snapshot of the type of pseudoscience with the University of Wollongong Taking this into consideration, courses that are now offered: 24 The Skeptic December 16

the principle that substances producing now provided for alternative therapies • Australian Catholic University: symptoms in a healthy individual can by private health insurance companies, Introduction to complementary be used to treat similar symptoms in a it’s not surprising the Australian public nursing therapy; sick person. If this form of treatment view these as evidence-based credible • University of New England: Bachelor is to be believed, every mainstream health options. of Applied Health; Graduate pharmacy course being taught to The government has previously Diploma of Health Science in Herbal students is currently wrong, as are stated that private health insurance Medicine and Master of Health the foundational facts of biology and rebates will only be paid for insurance Science in Herbal Medicine; chemistry. The National Health & products that cover natural therapy • University of Newcastle: Medical Research Council released a services where the Chief Medical Complementary therapies in report assessing 1800 papers which Officer finds there is clear evidence they healthcare, with courses ranging from examined the efficacy of homeopathy are clinically effective. However, despite aromatherapy to ; and found it was not any more effective the Department of Health review • University of Western Sydney: than a placebo or sugar pill in treating finding no evidence that the natural Bachelor of Applied Science in common medical conditions such as therapies covered by the review worked, Naturopathic Studies; promoting headaches, asthma, the report shows that healthcare through herbal medicine anxiety, attention over the past 10 years, and homeopathy; deficit disorder, and The focus should benefits paid for natural • Southern Cross University: Bachelor ulcers. Adding to “ therapies have increased of Clinical Sciences; with courses this, a review by the be on federal funding by 345 per cent with ranging from complementary Commonwealth being wasted in $135 million of total medicine, naturopathy, osteopathy; Department of Health supporting courses benefits paid in a year. • Central Queensland University: found that overall [It was the policy of Bachelor of Science majoring in there was no reliable, that lack evidence.” the Australian Labor Chiropractic Science and a Master of high quality evidence Party at the last Federal Chiropractic Science; available to allow election that “The • RMIT University: Bachelor of Health assessment of the clinical effectiveness Private Health Insurance Rebate will no Science majoring in Acupuncture of any natural therapies for any health longer be available for natural therapies and Chinese and a conditions. from 1 July 2017.” – Ed] Master of Applied Science majoring in . COUNTING THE COST ACADEMIC IMPRIMATUR The Australian universities that An argument could be made that the Taking this into account it seems that have been criticised have all defended inclusion of these courses in Australian the problem is also a symptom of a their courses, saying they are evidence universities is a product of demand. much larger ailment where the public and science-based. In naturopathy, for However, shouldn’t the focus be on the is losing its trust in mainstream health example, on top of herbal medicine issue of Federal funding being wasted professionals, with the baton now being and nutrition, the universities claim in supporting these courses that lack passed onto alternative medicine. that students also learn the same things evidence? Is this not encouraging the However, consumers have a right that a physiotherapist, medical doctor number of alternative practitioners to make informed decisions based on or nurse learn, with chiropractors graduating from tertiary education evidence, and a mandate should be also studying biology, physiology, institutions and thereby increasing the encouraged where those who provide neuroscience, anatomy, and pathology. use of unproven therapies? Already, Yet this is one of the main reasons why we see alarming statistics showing alternative medicine worries me so that 52 per cent of the Australian much - how do these university subjects population are taking some form of fit into the framework of meridian alternative medicine, with an estimated points, chakras and energy fields? $1.5 billion dollars spent each year on Taking subjects based on scientific vitamins and supplements. principles and reshaping them to fit What’s most alarming is that the alternative medical health practices that Department of Health and Ageing may not accept basic disease definitions, found that as many as 90 per cent of the effectiveness of vaccines or even over-the-counter vitamins examined the fundamental law of physics is did not comply with regulations, antagonistic to the scientific standard. with products lacking evidence to Take for example homeopathy, a substantiate the claims made for them. holistic system of medicine based on However, with subsidies for rebates 25 FEATURE Uncritical Thinking

Public universities have a REFERENCES Uni Daze responsibility to use federal funds Armstrong, A. et al. (2011). “Australian appropriately with the scope of adults use complementary and Continued... contributing meaningfully to alternative medicine in the supporting population health. We need treatment of chronic illness: a to push harder for a publicly funded national study”. Australian and New alternative health therapies are expected tertiary education system that only Zealand Journal of Public Health. to fully inform customers about the lack teaches evidence based courses, and Volume 35, Issue 4, pages 384–390. of evidence applying to their services, promotes a rigorous scientific standard Baggoley, C. (2015). Review of the especially taking into account that these that doesn’t flounder based on public Australian Government Rebate on services attract a private health subsidy. popularity. Furthermore, academics Natural Therapies for Private Health While it seems reasonable that at these institutes need to stand up Insurance. Australian Government universities want to expand and take a and protect the history of the scientific Department of Health. new approach to teaching science, we method, with educational institutes Department of Health (2013). An overview need to discourage the dangerous turn and the government working in of the regulation of complementary towards supporting pseudoscientific synergy to showcase the problems with medicines in Australia. courses based around health and offering courses in pseudoscience in Department of Health and Ageing (2011). medicine. federally funded universities.shelf. . Submission addressing the Review of the National Industrial Chemicals Notification and Assessment Scheme. National Health and Medical Research Council (2015). Media release: Statement and Advice on Homeopathy. Wilyman, J. (2015). A critical analysis of the Australian government’s rationale for its vaccination policy. University of Wollongong Thesis Collection.

University Courses Australian Catholic University, http:// tinyurl.com/zu53xap University of New England, http://tinyurl. com/jdj37jb University of Newcastle, http://tinyurl. com/hrufepr Western Sydney University, http:// tinyurl.com/jsmsfxb Southern Cross University, http://tinyurl. com/hj9p2h2 Central Queensland University, http:// tinyurl.com/zgro6ck RMIT University, http://tinyurl.com/ zg23xso

About the author: Diana Lucia is a Neuroscience Doctoral Candidate at the University of Queensland, School of Biomedical Sciences.

26 PUZZLES The Skeptic December 16

ACROSS Brain testers 1. Befuddled, I dream Jan’s a conjurer. (5,5) CRYPTIC CROSSWORD no 32 6. Golden god has a certain quality about them. (4) 8. Find the depth of a lumen in the inn. (5) 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 7 9. State taxes are ridiculous. (5) 11. Spanish Spain requires a special ability. (1-1-1) 8 9 C 10 11 12 13. The topic is those people in neO Direction. (5) 14. One bad chant, then 100 in any future from wine. (9) 16. Systems of belief have nil orgies? That can’t be right. 13 14 15 O U (9) A H 19. A young bug can go at almost any old speed. (5) 16 17 16S 18 U 19 20. She pretends to be the German Mrs 500. (5) 20 21. Standard measures shown to be correct. (9) S R 22. Easterly mother went to the country and came out. 20 21 R E (9) R A 25. Where do you find wine? You pot it. (5) 2522O 23 M 24 25 Y 26 27. A hill to the right? (3) 28 29. Move closer on the left inside. (5) O 30. 27 28 29 30 Northern reds are not people who love their tech. (5) E 31. Still, I haven’t found this creature. (4) 32. Lives live a bad scene. (10) 31 32 L

Tim Mendham + Steve Roberts DOWN DR BOB’S QUIZ 1. Did the top god cause an overhyped planetary influence? (7,6) LAST ISSUE’S QUESTIONS (the one with the missing 2. Can a timid one be a controller? (5) answers): 3. Vessel joined and sank. (9) 4. Goal story is about a dodgy science. (9) LOOKING BACK … WAY BACK … AT THE SUMMER 5. Questionable Dorothy is above Questionable Jeanne. OLYMPICS. 7. Exploit the second person plural? (3) 1. How many nations participated in the first Modern Olympic 10. Imaginary lands come back in total. (3) Games in 1896? 12. Mad cows are relative to moving things touchlessly. 2. Which Olympic Games are not recognised by the International (13) Olympic Committee (IOC)? 15. They might be clothed in denim bikinis but they go 3. Which Olympic Games had two host cities? over the heads of saints. (5) 17 A nail turned in the vine. (5) 4. Why were the 1908 games moved from Rome to London? 18. I don’t know who the holy law enforcers are. (9) 5. Only five sports have featured at every Modern Olympics. 19. Ignorance goes that way before learning. (9) What are they? 23. A fool found in back-masked message. (3) 6. How many sports featured in the first ancient games in 776 BCE? 24. Organisation subsumed in mind expansion. (5) 26. Holding a mug Richard is well spoken in Hungary. THIS ISSUE’S QUESTIONS: (5) Scattered throughout this issue, there are seven headings or 28. Absolutely not 27 across … well, it is sort of. (3) subheadings that are the titles of songs that were released on singles in the 1960s, 70s and 80s. What are they, who sang them (the hit versions), and when were they released? Answers on page 62 27 FEATURE Uncritical Thinking Tertiary Thinking What is critical thinking? And do universities really teach it? Martin Davies opens the university calendar.

here has been a spate of articles Tand reports recently about the increasing importance of critical thinking skills for future employment. long been insisting on the importance can’t teach it. A 2015 report by the Foundation of critical thinking skills. It is hard to define things like for Young Australians (http://tinyurl. In 2006, a major report titled critical thinking: the concept is far too com/zykqg6g) claims demand for “Are they really ready for work” abstract. critical thinking skills in new graduates (http://tinyurl.com/d2ms5ay) by a Some have claimed that critical has risen 158 per cent in three years. consortium of more than 400 US thinking is not a skill as much as an This data was drawn from an analysis employers ranked “critical thinking” attitude, a “critical spirit”, whatever of 4.2 million online job postings as the most desirable skill in new that might mean (of course it could from 6000 different sources in the employees. It was be both). Others period 2012-2015. ranked higher than Employers have suggested that The report found employers can skills in “innovation” “ it comprises skills pay a premium for many enterprise and “application of are increasingly in argumentation, skills. For example, evidence of information technology”. recognising what is logic, and an problem solving and critical thinking Surprisingly, 92.1 per awareness of skills resulted in a mean higher salary cent regarded critical need in students is psychology of A$7745pa. This was a little more thinking as important, applied skills. (cognitive biases). than for those with skills in financial but 69.6 per cent of ” But this does not literacy ($5224) and creativity employers regarded help get a crisp and ($3129). However, presentation higher school entrants to university clear understanding. ($8853) and digital literacy ($8648) “deficient” in this essential skill. Over the years theorists have tried skills appeared to be the most desired Employers increasingly recognise to nail down a definition of critical – or rewarded. (See table at right.) what is needed in graduates is not thinking. These include: Being a good critical thinker is so much technical knowledge, but • “reflective and reasonable thinking a desirable trait for getting a job in applied skills, especially skills in that is focused on deciding what to today’s economy. Why wouldn’t it be? critical thinking. These skills are also believe or do.” - http://tinyurl.com/ What business or enterprise does not said to be important within companies zabyoof want a good critical thinker? themselves as drivers of employee • “the ability to analyse facts, generate comprehension and decision making. and organise ideas, defend opinions, AN OLD REFRAIN make comparisons, draw inferences, Actually, none of this is really new, WHAT IS IT? evaluate arguments and solve although the pace might have But what is critical thinking? If we do problems.” - http://tinyurl.com/ quickened of late. Employers have not have a clear idea of what it is, we h7368uw 28 The Skeptic December 16

• “an awareness of a set of interrelated attitude or milieu within the sector And there is no shortage of studies critical questions, plus the ability and which largely goes unchallenged. demonstrating that “very few college and willingness to ask and answer (http://heterodoxacademy.org/ courses actually improve these skills”. them at appropriate times.” – Asking problems/) the Right Questions, http://tinyurl. To counter these trends, a group of DEFINITION UNIMPORTANT? com/gvb2x92 politically diverse scholars have set up How, then, to define critical thinking? • “thinking about your thinking a Heterodox Academy. They agitate for It is certainly not an easy question to while you’re thinking to make your the importance of teaching students answer. But perhaps a definition of thinking better.” - http://tinyurl. how – not what – to think. it is, in the end, unimportant. The com/hbjguxa important thing is that it does need Whatever definition one plumps HOW DO YOU TEACH IT? to be taught, and we need to ensure for, the next question that arises is There is some justification in the claim graduates emerge from university what are universities doing about that universities do not teach critical being good at it. teaching it? thinking, despite their oft-cited claims One thing is certain: beyond vague that they do. pronouncements and including A ‘GRADUATE ATTRIBUTE’ In the US media recently, there “critical thinking” among nebulous Universities claim that they impart was a heightened concern about lists of unmet or hoped-for graduate critical thinking to students as a the teaching of critical thinking in attributes, universities should be “graduate attribute”. universities. This was sparked by a paying more attention to critical Look at any carefully-prepared recent large-scale study – and later thinking and doing a lot more to institutional list of hoped-for graduate a book, Academically Adrift, http:// cultivate it. . attributes. “Critical thinking” - or tinyurl.com/3w69rmr – using its synonyms “analytical thinking”, Collegiate Learning Assessment data Note: Reprinted from The Conversation, “critical inquiry” etc - will be there. in the US. November 2016 Universities like to think that students The book provoked widespread exit their institutions thinking much interest and media attention in the US, more critically compared to when they especially on the topic of universities’ went in. failure to teach critical thinking. However, what is the evidence for It placed serious doubt on the About the author: this assumption? Has any university assumption that critical thinking was Martin Davies is Principal pre-tested for critical thinking skills being adequately taught on American Fellow/Associate Professor at admission, and post-tested upon college campuses. It created a storm of in Higher Education at the completion of degree to assess gains? discussion in the popular media. University of Melbourne. Not that I know of. There are well-validated tests of critical thinking that could be used for such a purpose, the California Critical Thinking Assessment Test being the most used. Others include the Watson Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal and the Cornell Critical Thinking Tests. Why hasn’t this been done? I suspect because universities would be justifiably worried about what the results might indicate. In the margin - and tangentially - some (pessimistic) academics have countered that universities promote precisely the opposite of critical thinking; a culture of uncritical left- wing orthodoxy, an orthodoxy that takes the form of cultural 29 FEATURE Uncritical Thinking Tools

OF Sharon ThoughtHill is so concerned at a sense of in-creeping anti-intellectualism, she offers some methods to counter the tide.

putnik’s launch in 1957 was a argue effectively and speak up calmly when making evaluations or decisions. Sjolt to the American education and persistently. It’s absurd to think that everyone is system that spurred science education. going to rationally examine every Events in the Bush years spurred REACH OUT PAST YOUR CIRCLES, aspect of their lives. But, it’s far more advocacy for and secularism. ESPECIALLY TO KIDS. Subjects that you useful if they apply some reason to A Trump presidency will be the klaxon can use to illustrate CT are limitless. big decisions like voting, health, to compel us to increase support for The focus of Reasonable News is education, and finances, and still go to critical thinking, science, and reason. on weird news stories, including church or espouse a belief in a deity. Critical thinking (CT) is a nebulous anomalies, the paranormal and Those organisations will effectively concept - everyone assumes they are conspiracies, which some people think fail if they get bogged down with anti- doing it but very few actually are. are silly but others find fascinating. religion promotion or science literacy Objective and careful evaluation before They are popular with exactly the cheerleading. It hasn’t worked so far; making a judgment is a skill that must public that needs to be exposed to time to expand your outreach to the be learned and practiced. “Critical reasonable discourse and can serve as general public without alienating most thinking” is a buzzword in many a perfect gateway to learning how to of them. If an organisation is leaning school curricula but it is not taught as think critically. Kids love this stuff – in a direction that turns off the public it should be. that’s the key population we must hit. response, tell them to change their To achieve a sea change in an age of I’m convinced that exposing kids tone. apparent anti-intellectual popularism to why some arguments are bad and will take time and a great deal of imparting CT skills to elementary SHARE, FOLLOW, SUGGEST, ‘LIKE’ AND effort. It’s exponentially more difficult school aged kids makes a tremendous SHARE SOME MORE. Share links to good to dissect and correct bad arguments impact, yet few organisations focus on web content. I can’t emphasise enough and claims than it is to spout them. that. (The National Centre for Science how important this is. Due to our We’ve been kicked in the ass to get Education is the best one.) There hiatus and drop in sharing by some started. Here’s how we do it. is not enough help for teachers or social media sites, the Doubtful News Yelling at and insulting each other parents. Not enough effort is given to site (doubtfulnews.com) has dropped doesn’t solve problems. Working helping our senior citizens either, who in Google rankings. Search engines through issues does. CT is an essential are often the target of scams. are the top producer of traffic at part of that. It must be emphasised in Doubtful News. That is, if people look schools, in the news, in social media. SUPPORT EFFECTIVE CT-FOCUSED up a keyword to find out more about We need to act on the following. ORGANISATIONS, WEBSITES, AND a topic we cover critically, our results PEOPLE. CT is not the same as appear lower than the more popular BE THE EXAMPLE. Work on your own being an atheist or a secularist or a uncritical and pseudoscience sites (like CT skills. Read. Practice. Learn how to scientist. CT is for everyone to use Daily Mail and Natural News). 30 The Skeptic December 16

This is catastrophic. Those sites not only get eyeballs who think what they read is truthful, they also get ad revenue that spurs production of more of the same nonsense. DON’T SHARE BAD STUFF. SHARE MORE GOOD STUFF. Write reviews on Tools iTunes for good podcasts, post good YouTube videos, suggest reporters cover CT stories, point them to good spokespeople. Respond to social OF media shares of bad information with links to better information. Any Thought opportunity you have to share and promote CT media, do it! CREATE MEDIA AND EXPAND THE MESSAGE. We have excellent CT producers like Captain Disillusion, Skeptoid Media, On the Media, and First Draft News. Support them and help others produce more of this kind of content. We really really really need it. If you have an organisation that values CT, write press releases, contact journalists, participate in interviews, arrange talks or host discussions with your local organisations. Attend CT and science talks. Edit Wikipedia. Purchase books for your local library. Talk it up – spread the message! Don’t forget you can also help with server and supply costs for websites, and video and podcast production. It’s not pocket change to run these things. Any donation shows those people and programs that you value their message and greatly encourages them to keep going. We have to continue. Let’s go. . Clearance$7 P Sale&H $30 + About the author: Be Quick- Limited Stocks Sharon Hill is editor and T-shirts owner of the skeptical news site, Doubtful News, which SOLD OUT is making a slight return from a well-deserved break. (www.doubtfulnews.com).

31 ARTICLE Biblical Prophecies 1 ItIt Ain’tAin’t

NecessarilyNecessarilyIn the first of three SoSo Classic Catch articles, Colin Groves and Simon Brown look at major blunders of major prophets in the Bible.

ho were the prophets in the WOld Testament Bible?? The word “Prophet” comes from the Greek prophetes, literally “one who speaks for” someone else, ie an interpreter. This in turn is a fairly accurate translation of the Hebrew “nabi”, proclaimer (Sawyer, 1987). Prophets were the mouthpieces of God, telling the people what God required of them - forecasting Antonio Balestra Prophet Isaiah the future was only incidental to their role (‘forth-tellers’ rather than ‘foretellers’ - Seitz, 1988), and even The Major Prophets are Isaiah, because of his reluctance to go and then much of their ‘prediction’ reads Jeremiah and Ezekiel. The Minor preach in the Assyrian capital, Nineveh. more like an “if you continue as you Prophets contain a few passages The ancient Assyrians, arguably are, then the following is bound to interpreted as messianic by some, but the most horrible people ever to have happen”, than like an unalterable in general - because they are ‘minor’ defiled the face of the earth, had a futurology. In fact, in some instances and/or didn’t give themselves much reputation for depriving those of it is recorded that the people do space to write long messages - they are whom they disapproved of their hands, change their ways, with the result little known. skins or other necessary parts, so our that the prophecy changes. The one name that is known to the sympathies are entirely with Jonah, but The books of the Prophets are public (outside the pages of a Herman presumably the hydrochloric acid and customarily divided into three Major Melville novel) is Jonah, and that proteolytic enzymes of the fish’s belly and 12 Minor Prophets, plus the mainly because of his adventure with restored his resolve to face the outside enigmatic Book of Daniel whereof a large fish (or whale, as the popular world, and after being sucked up by the we speak elsewhere in this issue of imagination has it). The Lord had fish, he did indeed hie him to Nineveh The Skeptic. consigned him to the belly of the fish where, astonishingly, his preaching 32 The Skeptic December 16

was effective and caused the people linking the prophesies, which form to rend their clothes. It is difficult to a continuous stream; the style is decide which story is less plausible: that quite different (sentence length and of the fish or of the repentance of the construction, vocabulary and so on are Assyrians. all different); and the writer has a habit In the 1930s, Earle Albert Rowell of personifying objects, including the wrote a book, David Dare, in which, city of Jerusalem. Finally, whereas the ItIt Ain’tAin’t over the course of a series of nightly first part purports to record the words public meetings, an evangelist of a prophet - Isaiah son of Amoz, who convinces sceptics that all the lived in the late eighth century BCE - prophecies of the Bible have come Deutero-Isaiah concerns the latter half to pass, therefore the whole Bible is of the Babylonian captivity, one and a literally true. We do not know whether half centuries later. NecessarilyNecessarily SoSo David Dare is or It has to be was a real person, or said that Radday whether, rather, the “Jeremiah complained (1973) argues that, book is intended as bitterly to the Lord within Deutero- a novel - a parable, Isaiah, chs. 40-48 presumably. for making him a target and 49-66 display A 1985 book, for mockery. so many stylistic instructions) took to going about naked Life - How Did It Get ” differences that for three years as a sign that Egypt and Here? By Evolution or the work of yet Cush would be naked, too, to Assyrian By Creation? published by the Watch a third prophet must be suspected, a attacks. Tower Tract Society, takes much the view which seems not to have attracted Jeremiah’s call came in the thirteenth same line. In a series of public meetings much following (if anything, the ‘Third year of the reign of King Josiah (626 in Canberra, a Seventh-day Adventist Isaiah’ which is sometimes believed in, BCE), and he lasted until the eleventh preacher, Peter Joseit, recounted is specified as chs. 56-66 - Seitz, 1988). year of the reign of King Zedekiah (586 various prophecies and claimed that The true Isaiah saw his first vision BCE); he was every whit as eccentric the ones referring to historical events in the last year of King Uzziah of as Isaiah, given to making practical had all been fulfilled, so we should take Judah (753 or 742 BCE, according to demonstrations of his prophecies such extremely careful note of the others (ie different reckonings). He flourished as breaking an earthenware jar in front the apocalyptic ones). during the reigns of Jotham, Ahaz and of the priests and elders to demonstrate Hezekiah, that is up to the beginning how Judah would be shattered, or THE MAJOR PROPHETS of the next century, or a little after (Is wearing a yoke around his neck to It is the three Major Prophets who we 6:1 and 1:1). He seems to have been symbolise the yoke that Nebuchadnezzar, wish to consider here. Their lengthy a bit of an eccentric; when Sargon king of Babylon, would soon place on writings contain much prophecy, which II, king of Assyria, captured the city Judah. His jar-breaking stunt got him has been mistaken by Biblical literalists of Ashdod, Isaiah (on the Lord’s flogged and put in the stocks overnight, for futurology. In this article, as in the and on his release he uttered prophecies accompanying article on Daniel, we of doom on the family of the temple will refer to David Dare and to the officer who had done this to him. He lectures by Joseit, along with a few complained bitterly to the Lord for other sources. making him a target for mockery (Jer. As a matter of fact Isaiah, Jeremiah 20:7-10). He barely escaped execution and Ezekiel are four prophets, not just on two occasions by King Jehoiakim, three. It has been accepted ever since and he was clearly regarded as a fifth the work of JC Doderlein in 1775, in columnist for the Babylonians. Indeed, his Ezaias, that chapters 40 onward he was well-treated by the Babylonians, of Isaiah have a different authorship who awarded him a food allowance; and date from the earlier chapters, when rebellion broke out among those and that they are known as Deutero- Jews who had not been deported to Isaiah (‘Second Isaiah’). The evidence Babylon, Jeremiah inveighed against the has been reviewed by Radday (1973) and Scullion (1982): Deutero-Isaiah Top: The Watchtower Tract Society’s 1985 is quite different from the earlier part creationist book, still available. thematically; there is no narrative Left: 1930s’ apocryphal evangelist David Dare. 33 ARTICLE Biblical Phrophecies 1

THE PROPHETS’ PREDICTIONS - It ain’t OR WERE THEY? We claimed above that the nature of necessarily so Old Testament prophecy is prediction only in the very loosest sense. Continued... We will argue that their messages were in the nature of judgements on and (often) comfort for the Jews, the rebels, who abducted him and took him inference being that they would have with them, apparently as a hostage, on been astounded at the implication their flight into Egypt, which is the last put on them by today’s Biblical we hear of him. fundamentalists, that they had exact Ezekiel, the son of Buzi the priest, foreknowledge of what an unalterable was a Jewish captive in Babylon who was future had in store for the world. In called to prophecy in the fifth year of this interpretation we include the the reign of King Jehoiachim, the son of messianic prophecies. David Dare Jehoiakim, in 594 or 593 BCE. When and others have tended to say, “Isaiah we read the instructions he believed predicted a world-saviour, and look - According to The Talmud, Isaiah didn’t get the he had received from God - which he came!” We think it would be more ending he was hoping for. he presumably obeyed - we find once accurate to say that Isaiah and other again an erratic, even bizarre fanatic prophets promised a saviour (for the a ruler, “and his name shall be called who had no regard for social niceties; Jews, not necessarily for the world), Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty who shut himself up in his house, and and that Jesus saw himself as fulfilling God, The everlasting Father, The Prince had himself tied up the prophecies, not in of Peace” (or, in the NEB translation, to keep him from the sense that things “and he shall be called in purpose leaving (Eze. 3:24-5); “ The prophets just happened to turn wonderful, in battle God-like, Father drew a representation would have been out as the prophets for all time (or, of a wide realm), Prince of Jerusalem on a had foretold, but by of peace”). Finally, in Ch. 11, “And brick which he then astounded by Biblical deliberately setting there shall come forth a rod out of the pretended to lay siege fundamentalists. out to fulfil them. stem of Jesse” (v.1), “And righteousness to (4:1-3); lay on his ” Thus when Jesus sent shall be the girdle of his reins” (v. 5), left side for 390 days to two of his disciples “And it shall come to pass in that day, do penance for Israel, and on his right for to fetch him a certain ass and her that the Lord shall set his hand again 40 days to bear the guilt of Judah (4:4-6 colt, “All this was done, that it might the second time to recover the remnant ); and shaved off his hair and beard, be fulfilled which was spoken by the of his people, which shall be left, from burning one third of the hairs, chopping prophet” (Matt. 21:4). Assyria, and from Egypt” up another third, and scattering the rest How many times do (v. 11). to the wind, except for a few which he we read this in the New In the first prophecy, kept in his robe until the time came to Testament? “thou” is Ahaz, king burn them too (5:1-4). of Judah, and the land We are rather appalled to read that he ISAIAH that he abhors, whose was forbidden to mourn the death of his Isaiah has at least three two kings are to be beloved wife, whom the Lord had struck prophecies that have been overthrown, seems to be down specifically to illustrate the fate that regarded as messianic. In Syria with Israel, whose awaited Israel (24:15-27). one, “Behold, a virgin two kings had combined In his wide-ranging prophecies he shall conceive, and bear against Judah; this would fulminated against Jerusalem; against a son, and shall call his happen in the infancy the ‘abominations’ practised by the Jews name Immanuel” (Is. of the child designated in Babylon; against Edom, Moab, Tyre, 7:14), but (v. 16) “before Immanuel (“God is Sidon, Egypt, etc. Would the Edomites the child shall know to with us”). As the second and the rest ever have got to know of refuse the evil, and choose prophecy makes clear, the his prophecies, one wonders? Or were the good, the land that child will be of the royal they uttered to give comfort to the thou abhorrest shall be house, and his own reign captive Jews (see “our traditional enemies forsaken of both her will usher in a period of are destined for far worse fates than kings”. In Ch. 9:6-7 he peace and prosperity. ourselves”)? says that the child shall be Clements (1988) 34 The Skeptic December 16

suggests that the prophecies refer to DEUTERO-ISAIAH There are several references in Hezekiah, son of Ahaz; but this seems Deutero-Isaiah is mainly famous for Deutero-Isaiah to Cyrus, king of Persia improbable, as Immanuel’s birth is the Servant Songs, which have even (44:28, 45:1), which dates the passages part of the prophecy, and Hezekiah been considered by some authorities to around 539 or 538, when Cyrus’s had been born before his father had to form a corpus of their own, separate empire was expanding and Babylon even come to the throne! It seems more from the rest of the book. They are was ready to fall like a rotten apple into likely that Isaiah was indeed looking the passages that have been taken as his lap (as detailed in the article on forward to a generalised time when messianic by some. They are as follows: Daniel). It is worth pointing out that Judah’s troubles would be over, and • Is. 42:1-4: The servant shall “bring Deutero-Isaiah speaks in similar vein of this is how Judaism did indeed come forth judgement to the Gentiles”; he Cyrus as he does of the ‘Servant’ (even to view the passages; for the Gospel shall be self-effacing and gentle, but calling him “servant” or “anointed”). writers, Jesus was Immanuel, and persistent. Identifying the ‘Servant’ as Cyrus both Matthew (ch. l) and Luke (ch. 3) • Is. 49:1-6: The servant speaks: he is has, of course, its own difficulties, recorded genealogies to demonstrate called from the womb; he will both especially that the Persian empire- that Jesus was, as required, of the restore Israel and be a light to the builder was not particularly self- House of Jesse (unfortunately, the two Gentiles. effacing, nor did he make his grave genealogies contradict each other!). • Is. 50:4-9: The servant again speaks: with the wicked! Mettinger (1983) Later, Isaiah prophesied (19:5) he has been made learned and and Seitz (1988) suggest that the that the river Nile “shall be wasted eloquent, he is obedient to the Lord, ‘servant’ is the exiled Israel, and that and dried up”, and that the city-state he is maltreated but the Cyrus passages serve of Tyre (19:15) should “be forgotten does not hit back. as a counterpoint to the seventy years”. • Is. 52:13 - 53:12: The Servant Songs. Perhaps, of As these two prophecies are servant is despised and course, the ‘servant’ is the thoroughly upstaged by Ezekiel (whose rejected; “wounded for prophet himself, writing handling of them is treated in detail our transgressions”; “he in ‘just you wait’ vein! below), we will not comment further is brought as a lamb on them here. to the slaughter, and JEREMIAH Isaiah proper - ‘First Isaiah’ - ends as a sheep before her One of the weakest claims with four chapters of narrative about shearers is dumb”; “he for ‘fulfilment of prophecy’ the sieges of Jerusalem by Assyria, made his grave with the comes in an article on the retelling (sometimes in the self-same wicked”, yet he shall see archaeological site of Petra, words and phrases) the famous stories his seed. in Jordan (Down, 1990). of II Kings chs. 18-20. Ch. 39 ends It is the fourth After describing its with Isaiah telling King Hezekiah Servant Song that has location, in the Edom that, after he is dead, Jerusalem will been reckoned most escarpment (on the east be sacked by Babylon; this begins significant by those who side of the Arava rift to sound like a prophecy of the see predictions about Jesus valley, which runs from Babylonian captivity a century later, in the Old Testament, the Dead Sea to the Gulf until we read (39:7): “And of thy sons yet of course Jesus is not of Aqaba), and some of its that shall issue from thee, which thou supposed to have had noteworthy features such shall beget, shall they take away; and ‘seed’ (literally, children, as the magnificent rock-cut they shall be eunuchs in the palace of as the NEB makes clear facade, Um el Biyara (“the the king of Babylon” - making it clear here). The ‘servant’ place of cisterns”) and the that this Babylonian event is to happen concept is quite obscure, deep narrow wadi, the Siq, in the years immediately following and indeed the very validity of the that leads to it, Down quotes extensively Hezekiah’s death (it didn’t; and, reading concept of ‘Servant Songs’ has been from Jeremiah’s imprecations against the narrative that follows in II Kings, queried (Mettinger, 1983). Edom, thus: there is no indication that Hezekiah’s Mettinger points out that the Songs “O thou that dwellest in the clefts sons did not remain sexually intact!). are actually only weakly demarcated of the rock, that holdest the height of Hezekiah, who had suffered a good from the surrounding text, such that the hill: though thou shouldest make deal in his reign, seemed less than one could, with equal justification, thy nest as high as the eagle, I will concerned about his sons. “Good is extend the First Servant Song for bring thee down from thence, saith the the word of the Lord which thou hast another five verses, and the Second for Lord. Also Edom shall be a desolation: spoken”, he said: “For there shall be another six; and there are at least three everyone that goeth by it shall be peace and truth in my days”. other passages which have ‘Servant astonished, and shall hiss at the plagues And so ends First Isaiah. Song’ characteristics. thereof. As in the overthrow of Sodom 35 ARTICLE Biblical Phrophecies 1

EZEKIEL us, was built on the mainland and at It ain’t One of Ezekiel’s often-cited ‘predictions’ first used the large (one mile by three concerns Tyre, a powerful city-state in quarters of a mile) offshore island as necessarily so what is now southern Lebanon, and its storehouse or place of retreat; but chief city of the Phoenicians. “Tyre shall gradually the main inhabited part of Continued... be destroyed, never to be rebuilt”, he the city came to be on the island, and said (Eze. 26:4-21); “I will bring on the mainland part, though strongly Tyrus Nebuchadnezzar, king of Babylon” fortified, became the adjunct and was and Gomorrah and the neighbour (26:7); “And they shall break down thy called Old Tyre. In 586 the city was cities thereof, saith the Lord, no man walls, and destroy thy pleasant houses: indeed attacked by Nebuchadnezzar, shall abide there, neither shall a son of and they shall lay thy stones and thy and Old Tyre was taken; but Tyre man dwell in it. (Jer 49:16-18 - Down timber and thy dust in the midst of the itself, the island city, was not, and the uses some other translation, but the water” (26:12); “And I will make thee Babylonians besieged it for thirteen tenor is the same.) like the top of a rock: thou shall be a long years, at the end of which a treaty Down interprets this passage his place to spread nets upon; thou shalt was made. (Tyre made a nominal own way: “The height of the hill” be built no more” (26:14); “I will make submission and offered some of its refers to Um el Biyara, and the “clefts thee a terror, and thou aristocracy as hostages; of the rock’ refers to what is known shalt be no more: the city remained to the Arabs as the Siq. He goes Though thou be sought “ David Dare is untouched.) Reading Eze. on to maintain that the ultimate for, yet shalt thou revealed as a fast 26 makes it absolutely abandonment of Petra as late as never be found again, clear that it was at the the 12th century CE represents the saith the Lord God” talker, either a fraud hand of Nebuchadnezzar fulfilment of the prophecy. (26:21). or breathtakingly that the total destruction So how does he decide what “the David Dare claims sloppy. is to take place; as the height of the hill” and “the clefts of (p.15) that the old ” city was not destroyed, the rock” mean? He does not say; he city of Tyre was most of us would merely asserts it. (This is what George indeed destroyed by see the prophecy as Orwell called a “bullying argument”.) Nebuchadnezzar, and that the new unfulfilled. (Herm (1975) remarks The description, referring as it does Tyre was thereafter built on an island that its destruction, at a time when to the Edomites, aptly describes the offshore; Alexander the Great, much Nebuchadnezzar was sweeping all whole of that dramatic mountainous later (332 BCE) used the remains of before him, was widely expected; its region - who specified Petra? The only the old city to build a causeway (“stones survival was “almost miraculous”.) But settlements mentioned (in verses 7, and timber and dust in the midst of the prophecy-as-futurology zealots 8, 13, 20 and 22) are Teman, Dedan the water”, get it?), and so crossed to insist that somehow, without a break in and Bozrah. Petra, the island city, took it and the text, notice of a second and finally Down has previously destroyed it utterly. By destructive attack on Tyre is evident; so argued, was the locale contrast, the nearby city of we must take the story further. called Sela in the Bible Sidon, for which capture Yes, Alexander did attack Tyre (it means “Rock” in but not utter destruction when it refused him permission Hebrew, as Petra does was predicted (Eze. 28:20- to enter it peacefully, ostensibly to in Greek): in other 3), still exists! The Jehovah’s sacrifice to the god Melkarth (whom words, it was not one Witnesses’ book Life - Alexander identified with his mythical of these three places. How Did It Get Here? By ancestor Herakles). Indeed, he did Finally, during his visit Evolution or by Creation? build a causeway across to it from the to Petra, David Down also makes much of this mainland, using in part the remains of surely met the Bedouin prophecy, stressing that its Old Tyre (so not strictly of Tyre). After who traditionally camp final fulfilment occurred a year-long siege he captured Tyre and there, just as Peter more than two centuries after devastated it: 2000 of its citizens were Joseit did in his visit? the prophecy was made. In crucified on the beach and 30,000 But what is one of the public lectures were sold as slaves. Some Tyrians were really important referred to by Brown (1989), rescued by their Sidonian allies; some about Jeremiah is Joseit even showed a slide of took refuge in the temple of Melkarth the narrative of his fishermen spreading out their and were spared. Though almost behaviour. To this we nets on the rock, said by him depopulated, the city did survive; its will return in the last to mark the site of Tyre. fortunes revived under the Seleucids, section. Tyre, Hitti (1957) tells it flourished under Roman rule, and it 36 The Skeptic December 16

Left: Jeremiah: “Thus before Nasser’s overthrow of the Farouk saith the Lord to me, monarchy, of course, but let it pass.) As make bond and yokes a matter of fact, what Ezekiel said was and put them upon not, strictly speaking, that Egypt should thy neck.” be ruled by strangers, but that it should Below: Tyre in the not be ruled at all (“there shall be no 1930s, still showing more a prince of the land of Egypt”). Alexander’s causeway Quibbles, quibbles: the point we (albeit sitled up) want to make here is more serious: a prophecy that has quite patently failed when he spoke to come true occurs just a few verses of it becoming a before those that Dare refers to - so rock for fishermen close, in fact, that his failure to cite to spread their them can only be regarded as blatant nets on. dishonesty. “And the land of Egypt shall A recent be desolate and waste” (Eze. 29:9); “and was the second largest city in Lebanon commentator (Klein, 1988) sheds light I will make the land of Egypt utterly in the time of the crusades. Then its on this “failure of prophecy”. When waste and dissolate” (v. 10); “No foot of fortunes underwent a further decline; Nebuchadnezzar, performing the Lord’s man shall pass through it, nor foot of it was described as merely a “populous work, had nonetheless failed to take beast shall pass through it, neither shall village” by Ibn Battuta in 1326. And, Tyre, no great crisis of faith ensued: it be inhabited forty years” (v. 11). oh dear, it still exists - a town of 23,000! the Lord would give him Egypt instead One thing we can say for sure and As Harden (p.26) notes, a major (Eze. 29:17- 21)! “A literalistic, one-to- certain about Egypt, that it has been reason why so little excavation of the one fulfilment was not required” (Klein, continuously inhabited by people at Phoenician city has been possible is that 1988: 135). least from upper Paleolithic times (and the modern town is still in the same Ezekiel’s Egypt prophecies bring us by animals for longer than that) up to place - on the self-same site. to another matter. David Dare (ch. 3, p. the present. What price “Utter destruction for 22) referring to Eze. 32:15 and 30:12, Yet the prophet is saying that there ever”, then? 13, claims that the prophet foretells that would be a forty year hiatus: no people, The Arabic version of its name, Sur, Egypt would be ruled by strangers - and no gazelle, ibex, wild cat, jackal, is linguistically cognate with Tyre; the look, ever since Alexander’s conquests, millipede, sand mite, etc! David Dare name, incidentally means “rock”, so Egypt’s rulers have been of foreign is revealed here as a fast talker, either a Ezekiel was indulging in a play on words extraction! (Dare was writing well fraud or so breathtakingly sloppy that he must be simply laughed out of court. Zealous to ‘prove’ that a certain prophecy has come true, he somehow manages to overlook another, that is just a few verses earlier, that cannot, by the most liberal interpretation, be maintained to have been accurate. LESSONS FROM THE PROPHETS But do the prophets still have a message for us today? We are sure that they do. On the most trite level it is something like this: their so-called ‘predictions’ can easily be shown not to have come true; a fundamentalist who insists that they have, and uses this supposed fact as important evidence of the validity of the entire Bible, perhaps of Christianity itself, is thereby unfairly contributing to the demise of the whole Judaeo-Christian concept. (For this reason alone, one would have thought that the fundamentalist sects would 37 ARTICLE Biblical Prophecies 1

nearly crept into the Koran, how do we Down, David 1990. ‘Petra’s Time Clock’, It ain’t know they were not capable of getting Creation ex Nihilo, 12 (1), pp30-4. into the Bible too? The problem does Groves, Colin & Simon Brown 1989. “Daniel necessarily so not arise if we admit that the scriptures, Come to Judgement”, The Skeptic, Vol 9 No however holy, were written by human 4, pp 23-9. [Republished in this issue of Continued... beings just doing their best; but for The Skeptic] those who insist that the sacred books Hayes, John H. & Stuart A. Irvine 1987. Isaiah were divinely dictated, the problem is the Eighth Century Prophet: His Times and His be wise to forget about prophecy-as- acute. If God can inspire the scribe, so Preaching, Abingdon Press, Nashville. futurology.) too can Satan. Herm, Gerhard 1975. The Phoenicians, Victor On a higher plane, and as we have Let us remember that many books Gollancz, London. emphasised before, the prophecies on the life of Jesus were rejected by Hitti, Philip K 1957. Lebanon in History, and the books that contain them the early church for inclusion in the Macmillan & Co, London. reveal a great deal about the authors, ‘official’ New Testament, because they Klein, Ralph W 1988. Ezekiel: the Prophet and His their culture, society and their way of painted an unflattering portrait of Jesus Message, University of South Carolina Press. thinking. To the extent that the Judaeo- or in other ways did not conform to Mettinger, Tryggve N B 1983. “A Farewell Christian belief system is one of western the orthodox theological or political to the Servant Songs”, Scripta minora civilisation’s most important influences, view. Historically, many of these Regiae Societatis Humaniorum Litterarum this provides tantalising glimpses of excluded books were as relevant as, Ludensis. much that lies behind our own culture and were certainly contemporary with, Radday, Yehuda T 1973. The Unity of Isaiah in and society and the way we think, even those that were finally accepted as the the Light of Statistical Linguistics, Verlag though the two civilisations are far Word of God. Dr H A Gerstenberg, Hildesh? removed in time and place, and also The decision as to which books Romer, John 1989. Testament, Collins Dove/ now greatly disparate in ethical outlook. comprised the New Testament was a ABC, Melbourne. In a real sense, therefore, to attribute human one, not divine (Romer, 1989). Sawyer, John F A 1987. Prophecy and the the power of prophecy and futurology In any case, why would one want Prophets of the Old Testament, Oxford to these authors is to belittle and the books of the prophets to be University Press. demean their contribution to literature divinely inspired? Theirs is a world Scullion, John 1982. Isaiah 40-66. Old and their inadvertent service to history. where the innocents suffer, where Testament Message, 12; Michael Glazier Inc., The fundamentalists transform these non-combatants are massacred, where Wilmington, Delaware. men, not into superheroes, but into women and children are enslaved, Seitz, Christopher R 1988. Reading and clowns. where captives are butchered, and Preaching the Book of Isaiah, Fortress Press. But an even more important point the prophets gloat over this, all in the Philadelphia. is raised by some passages, most name of the Lord. Like the blood- notably by the story of Jeremiah soaked histories of the books of wearing the yoke (Jer. 28). Another Exodus, Joshua, Judges, Samuel, Kings Note: This Classic Catch article was prophet, Hananiah, son of Azzur, and Chronicles, they record an alien originally published in The Skeptic, Vol 10 took the yoke from Jeremiah’s neck morality, a thousand light years from No 2 Winter 1990 and broke it saying that within two the ‘love your enemies’ exhortations years the Lord would break the power of the New Testament, which of Nebuchadnezzar thus. Jeremiah fundamentalists presumably espouse. About the authors: replied that he hoped it would be Let us leave the prophets within At time of writing, Colin so, but promptly went away and had their context and not try to insist that Groves was reader in another vision in which he learned they, or the kings and armies they anthropology at the Australian that not only would the yoke of served, have anything to do with the National University, Canberra, Nebuchadnezzar not be broken, but way the world should be. and president of the Canberra that it would even be increased. So he For, if they really are the voice of Skeptics. He is now Emeritus returned and denounced Hananiah God, it is a dismal world indeed. . Professor. as a false prophet whom the Lord had condemned to death. (And indeed the unfortunate Hananiah died two REFERENCES months later.) Brown, Simon 1989. ‘Biblical History and Simon Brown was The question that this story, in Prophecy’, The Skeptic, Vol 9 No 3, pp40- 41. information officer and co- particular, raises is: how shall we know Clements, R. E 1988. ‘Isaiah and the Deliverance editor of Argos, the journal a false prophet? We live in the age of Jerusalem’, J. Study Old Test., Suppl. Ser. of the Canberra Skeptics, of Salman Rushdie; if Satanic Verses 13 and of the book Skeptical. 38 ARTICLE Biblical Prophecies 2 The Skeptic December 16 DanielDaniel CComeome totoJudgementJudgement Part Two of a Classic Catch trilogy, in which Colin Groves and Simon Brown examine the literalness of Biblical prophecy.

ebuchadnezzar, King of NBabylon, had a dream that troubled him greatly. Unfortunately, he could not remember what the dream was, so his soothsayers could not interpret it for him, even though he had threatened them with death if they failed (an attitude with which all Skeptics will naturally be in sympathy). So the king ordered that Peter Paul Rubens’ Daniel in the Lions’ Den preparations be duly made for their execution, and here we may begin to question his fairness, for some who of bronze, the legs of iron and the feet which would last for ever. And by the had not been consulted at all, and part iron and part clay. A stone was way, O King (live for ever), continued presumably (not being truly psychic) suddenly hurled, not by human hands, Daniel, please spare your hapless knew nothing of the dream, were at the feet of the image and broke them, soothsayers and make my friends included in the order. One of these causing the whole statue to fall and Shadrach, Meshach and Abednego was the Jewish captive, Daniel. shatter, while the stone itself grew into a provincial administrators in your But Daniel prayed, and the mountain that filled the whole earth. kingdom. following night he was told by God in The meaning, Daniel revealed, was Fundamentalists clearly regard the a vision just what Nebuchadnezzar’s this: Nebuchadnezzar was himself fulfilment of prophecy as an important dream had been, and what it meant. that head of gold. After him would item in their armoury. Obtaining an audience with the come another, inferior kingdom, then Among the most widely cited king, he recalled the dream for him, another, and after that another as strong prophecies are those of the Book of as follows: The king had dreamed as iron; but this fourth kingdom would Daniel, and of these, Nebuchadnezzar’s of a huge image of a man, with the be divided despite marriage alliances dream seems the most widely cited head made of gold, the breast and (“mixed with clay”), and would be of all. Let the 1930s book David arms of silver, the belly and thighs destroyed by the kingdom of God Dare (chapter 4, pp 29-30) speak for 39 ARTICLE Biblical Prophecies 2

There is the minor detail that the disintegrated a couple of centuries Daniel Come second kingdom was going to be inferior later, Mesopotamia became part of to the first, whereas of course the Medo- the Sassanid Empire. The rise of Islam to Judgement Persian Empire was far larger and lasted saw Mesopotamia brought under the far longer than the Babylonian. Let us Caliphate, and it was later ruled by the Continued... overlook this ever-so-slight discrepancy successive Turkish Empires (Seljuk and for the moment. Ottoman). Much more serious is the subtle shift The Ottoman Empire was perhaps all. (The book was written by Earle of the theatre of operations away from the largest and longest-lasting “world Albert Rowell covering a series of the Middle East and the question of empire” up to that time (it finally nightly public meetings by a possibly what exactly is a “world collapsed in 1918), fictitious evangelist known as David empire”. with the possible Dare. He convinces sceptics that all The Babylonian “ Fundamentalists exception of China. the prophecies of the Bible have come Empire was really rather regard the fulfilment In terms of power, to pass, therefore the whole Bible is insignificant on the magnificence, brutality literally true.) world scene (it did not of prophecy as an and the absolutism The four kingdoms of the dream even cover the whole important item in of its rule it yielded are Babylon, Medo-Persia, Greece and world as known to the their armoury. nothing to any of its Rome; after Rome, Daniel prophesied 6th Century BC Jews), ” predecessors. there would never be another world despite the acknowledged Where are power, and look, there hasn’t! Many magnificence of its capital the Parthians, people, says David Dare, have tried to city. the Sassanids, the Turks, in unite the peoples into a universal world The Roman Empire, far more of a Nebuchadnezzar’s dream? In what empire, but have failed. Napoleon “world empire”, was centred far to the way, exactly, did they fail to “unite the and Kaiser Wilhelm II (and today’s west and did not in fact even extend to people”? commentators add Hitler) need not Mesopotamia (the region of Babylon) On its own terms, therefore, the have bothered even to try: it was already except very briefly under Trajan, who prophecy of Daniel ch.2, as interpreted written in the Bible that they were captured it from the Parthians in 114- by 20 century fundamentalists, is clearly destined to fail. Only the Kingdom of 117 AD. After Trajan, Babylon reverted refuted. But in a wider context this God will succeed, to which a Seventh- to Parthia. When the Parthian Empire misses the point. day Adventist preacher Peter Joseit and the 1985 Watch Tower book Life Below and right: Daniel - How Did It Get Here? By Evolution or interprets Nebuchadnezzar’s By Creation? both add that the signs are dream figure. all about us that the last days are here, the Kingdom will soon come, the stone hurled not by human hands is already on its way towards us. There are two ways to look at the prophecy in Daniel, ch.2: on its own merits (as interpreted by present- day Biblical fundamentalists) and in context. FUNDAMENTALIST INTERPRETATION Let us start then, by supposing that the fundamentalists are correct: the Book of Daniel records prophecies made in the 6th century BCE; there would be four, and only four, world kingdoms/empires thereafter; these four were Babylon, Medo-Persia, Greece and Rome; and after Rome there should be no further universal kingdoms of human origin. Has all this been fulfilled? 40 The Skeptic December 16

HISTORICAL CONTEXT As recorded in 2 Kings 24, King Jehoiakim of Judah was conquered by Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon, but rebelled three years later, and promptly died, leaving his successor Jehoiachin only three months of rule before Nebuchadnezzar, now in the eighth year of his reign, captured Jerusalem and hauled him off, together with (supposedly) 10,000 of his people, to captivity in Babylon. 2 Chronicles 36:6 and Daniel 1:1-2 have Jehoiakim himself taken to Babylon in chains (and, in the latter case, in Nebuchadnezzar’s second year), but contemporary Babylonian sources agree with the Above: Babylon, Second Book of Kings. Daniel even capital of the not- specifies that this happened in the third so-big Baylonian year of Jehoiakim’s reign, which would Empire, but home to make it 606 BC, which is actually one Nebuchanezzar and year before Nebuchadnezzar came to the 10,000 Jews. throne. As Daniel was supposedly one of Left: In 538 BCE, those brought to Babylon with his Cyrus the Great king (Dan 1:16), we must conclude conquered Babylon. that if the Book of Daniel was written (1590s engraving by during the prophet’s lifetime its author Dutch artist Adrian must have received very inaccurately Collaert.) remembered history from his informant. The errors continue. In Dan 1:21, the prophet is said to have been in Babylon until the first year of the city’s conqueror, the Persian King Cyrus, whereas Dan 10 recounts a vision which organised his empire into 120 satrapies, into 120 as Daniel has it). Cyrus was in he had on the banks of the Tigris, so he was also very discerning, and came his 60s when he took Babylon. Xerxes presumably still in Babylon, in Cyrus’s to trust Daniel as had his Babylonian (Ahasuerus in the Bible) was Darius third year. predecessors. 1’s son, not his (or any other Darius’) Daniel 5 recounts the wonderfully But, as ancient history buffs will father. There had been an empire of atmospheric tale of Belshazzar’s feast, know, the Babylonian kingdom was in the Medes, and indeed other prophets referring to Belshazzar as the king, and historical reality conquered by Cyrus (Isaiah 13:17-22; Jeremiah 51:11ff) had as Nebuchadnezzar’s son; he was, in fact, the Persian, Who, then, was “Darius the prophesied that the Medes would be the the son of King Nabonidus and not Mede”? ones to conquer Babylon, as they had himself king but regent for his father Rowley (1935) showed that “Darius earlier coined with the Babylonians to who was in the provinces at the time. the Mede” must be, as he put it, a destroy Assyria, but in 550 Cyrus had This was the feast at which an invisible “conflation of confused traditions”. The absorbed the Median Empire into his graffitist wrote in Sumerian that god was author of the Book of Daniel must have own Persian Empire. displeased with Belshazzar. And “Thy confused the conquest of Babylon by Most other commentators have kingdom shall be divided, and given to Cyrus in 538 BCE with its reconquest, agreed with Rowley. Only a few the Medes and Persians”, and the story after a rebellion, by the later Persian literalists have taken issue with him, ends “That very night Belshazzar king kind Darius 1 in 520. According to chief among whom is Whitcombe of the Chaldeans was slain, and Darius the author of Daniel, it was Darius 1 (1959) who, in a wonderful exercise in the Mede took the kingdom being then who organised the Persian Empire into special pleading, suggests that “Darius sixty-two years old” (NEB version). satrapies as “Darius the Mede” (though the Mede” was actually Gubaru, whom Darius the Mede, we are told, was son into 21, 23, 24 or 29 according to Cyrus made governor of Babylon. True, of Ahasuerus. An energetic ruler, who Darius’ own successive inscriptions, not the high officers of the Persian Empire 41 ARTICLE Biblical Prophecies 2

Daniel Come to Judgement

Continued...

were generally Persian, but perhaps Gubaru was a Mede, no? Well, no, he was not really king, but he was a sort of de facto royal dignitary, in which case it is possible he might have taken a Persian name ... such as Darius. His father’s name is not recorded, but there is no evidence it was not Xerxes/Ahasuerus, was there? This sort of convoluted Its earliest traceable use is by the possibly Above: Darius and Xerxes approached by a “logic” speaks for itself. 8th century Greek poet Hesiod, in high official (Pharnaces?), depicted in a relief whose recounting of human prehistory from the Apadana in Persepolis. OTHER INTERPRETATIONS there are successive races of gold, silver, The Book of Daniel begins in Hebrew. bronze and iron (with the ‘’heroic” used in 1 Maccabees, a book of the Then, in 2:4, we find “The Chaldaeans, race of Greek mythology intervening Apocrypha which describes the successful speaking in Aramaic, said ...” and lo, the between the last two). It seems to have revolt of the Jews, under the Maccabees, text switches suddenly to Aramaic, and become widespread since then. against the Seleucid king Antiochus IV does not revert to Hebrew until chapter It is tempting to attribute its Epiphanes (175-163 BCE). Was Daniel, 8. Aramaic became the lingua franca employment in the Middle East to the then, written at the time of this revolt? of the Middle East during the Persian extensive Hellenisation that followed Empire, ie after the Jews’ Babylonian Alexander’s conquests in the late 4th MACCABEAN REVOLT exile, indicating a post-exile date for century, though of course this cannot be The evidence suggests that it was. Many Daniel; indeed, according to Sawyer assumed. passages in the book refer directly to “the (1987), a date after 400 BCE. Four-kingdom models, on the other king of Greece” and the like, though Those parts that are in Hebrew are hand, came into use quite late. Thus they are reported as visions. not of the fluency the Roman historian After Alexander the Great’s death, his expected from a Aemilius Sura, generals fought each other, some of them 6th century Jew, “ The author of the writing somewhat establishing their own dynasties over according to Davies Book of Daniel must have before 171 BCE, parts of Alexander’s enormous empire. (1985). There are listed the four The Seleucid dynasty emerged as some Greek words received inaccurately “world empires” master of the Middle East. in the text, especially remembered history. to his day as the Orthodox Jewish discontent built the names of musical ” Assyrian (including up continually as Hellenism, under the instruments (3:5-6), Babylonian!), Seleucids, spread in Judaea: young Jewish suggesting according to the same authors Median, Persian and Greek, and so men had even become keen on athletics, an even later date. And the theology, did one of the Sibylline oracles (Jewish in which of course they competed naked numerology and apocalyptic style are prophetic writings known from the 1st - and, to avoid being laughed at, some of comparable to the Books of Joel and century CE manuscripts from Egypt, them had apparently “made themselves Zechariah, which are dated to the late but thought to date from the 2nd uncircumcised”, a highly-painful 4th century BCE. The use of the term century BCE). operation called “epispasm”. “Chaldaeans” for just a class of magician Mention of four empires, and in But the final straw was Antiochus IV’s indicates unfamiliarity with 6th century particular the insertion of a Median desecration of the temple at Jerusalem. Babylon: the Chaldaeans were, simply, Empire between “Assyrian” and Persian, Traditional sacrifices had been forbidden the native inhabitants of Babylon. The suggests that the author of Daniel was and pagan practices introduced such belief in a Median Empire intervening “drawing on a fixed tradition” (Collins, as the sacrifice of pigs to Zeus (“the between the Babylonian and Persian is 1981). abomination of desolation”). This act likewise incompatible with an early date. Finally, some phrases, especially the was quite unprecedented in the ancient The four-metal imagery of “abomination of desolation” of 8:13 world; no imperial system, however Nebuchadnezzar’s Dream is inconclusive. and 11:31, are identical to phraseology brutal in other respects, had ever actually 42 The Skeptic December 16

interfered with other people’s religious and the Ptolemies; and the supernatural Grayzel (1968) maintain, to the genre practices. In 167 BCE, the aged priest stone that shattered the feet and then known as Pseudepigraphia, writings in Mattathias slew a Jew who was offering filled the whole earth is reminiscent of which the anonymous authors, wishing pagan sacrifice, and his followers began Daniel’s view, a few chapters later on, of to draw attention to matters they pulling down pagan altars and forcibly the Maccabean revolt as the coming of considered important, would add them circumcising all Jewish boys. After the the Kingdom of God. to their arrangements of an old author’s death of Mattathias in the following year, The erroneous insertion by the writings. Such a view implies that there his son Judah, nicknamed Maccabee, author of a Median Empire between might well have been an older core, formed an army of revolt. the Babylonian/Persian perhaps indeed written Daniel ch. 11 describes these events, actually compels us to during the Babylonian and those that preceded them (the war interpret it in this way: “ Let us not Exile, to the Book of and dynastic intermarriage between the Babylonian, Median, trivialise the richness Daniel, but we may never Seleucids and the Ptolemies of Egypt) Persian, Greek. The know what it actually very precisely, but in the future tense fourth “kingdom”, of the inspirational consists of. as if prophesying them, with a tone the one destroyed by Book of Daniel by Notably, the of outrage that has convinced most the Kingdom of God, literalising it. Pseudepigraphia include commentators that the author had lived must have been that of ” a lot of apocalyptic through the times himself - right up to the Seleucids - strictly writings, “visions of the 11:40. At this point, quite suddenly, speaking, the Seleucids last days”, which is what evident wishful thinking takes over, and arose from the ashes of Alexander’s many of Daniel’s prophecies are. accurate historiography ceases. Antiochus, empire rather than being a continuation The Book of Daniel has inspired Daniel prophesies, will conquer Egypt, of it, but to the Jews they must have great literature, art and music through then return to Palestine where he will all seemed the same: idolatrous, the centuries, from Shakespeare to EL die. What actually happened was that uncircumcised people, addicted to discus Doctorow, from Blake to Arthur Boyd, Antiochus avoided antagonising Egypt throwing in the nude. from Handel to Louis Armstrong. Let us and went north, to quell a Parthian The first to date the Book of Daniel to not trivialise this richness by literalising revolt, and was killed there. the time of the Maccabees was the Greek it. More important still, let us not In Nebuchadnezzar’s dream, the philosopher Porphyry, of the 2nd century attribute the world’s ills to God - let us mixture of iron and clay in the feet of the CE, and modern authors have nearly all do something about it for ourselves. . image suggests the two attempts to make agreed with him. In fact, as far as we are dynastic marriages between the Seleucids aware, all except the fundamentalists (ie REFERENCES all those with a vested interest in keeping Brown, Simon 1989. ‘Biblical History and it, in the teeth of the evidence, in the 6th Prophecy’, The Skeptic, Vol 9 No 3, pp40- 41. 1860 woodcut of Macabee’s revolt in 166 BCE, the century BCE). Clements, R. E 1988. ‘Isaiah and the Deliverance same time as the Book of Daniel was written. It belongs, as Collins (1981) and of Jerusalem’, J. Study Old Test., Suppl. Ser. 13 Collins, John J. 1981. “Daniel, First Maccabees, Second Maccabees” Old Testament Message, no 16. Grayzel, Solomon. 1968. A History of the Jews 2nd ed. New York: Mentor Books. Rowley, HH. 1935. Darius the Mede and the Four World Empires in the Book of Daniel, Cardiff: University of Wales Press Board (1964 edition). Sawyer, John FA. 1987. Prophecy and the Prophets of the Old Testament, Oxford University Press. Whitcombe, John C., Jr. 1959. Darius the Mede: the Historical Chronology of Daniel, Nuttley, NJ: Presbyterian and Reformed Publishing Co. (1977 edition).

Note: This Classic Catch article was originally published in The Skeptic, Vol 9 No 4 Summer 1989 43 ARTICLE Biblical Prophecies 3 The Reasons Behind It Colin Groves and Simon Brown take All a look behind the prophecies, at those who really really want them to be true.

n the course of researching for literalness of the Bible, a trait shared of many people, belief can become Iarticles on biblical prophecy, by all Christian fundamentalists. worship. and from reading similar articles by We think there are four possible Second, the need for security. other authors, we’ve realised that reasons for this attitude. One or a This is related to the first reason, one thing stands out above all else: combination of two or more of them, but in a sense is reversed. Instead of how determined the proponents of may satisfactorily explain their beliefs encouraging people to find out how biblical prophecy are to prove their and the strength with which they hold they fit in as individuals, it instead point.. them. encourages them to lose themselves, To stretch an heroic metaphor, their individuality, in a greater whole. the confirmation of biblical REASONS TO BELIEVE They are protected by something prophecies requires two things: First, the need to believe in greater than themselves, like small Herculean distortions of logic and something. Beliefs provide people fish in a large shoal, and proselytise procrustean feats of fact fitting. with some of so desperately because Despite this, obviously intelligent the anchors they Fundamentalists’ the more of them individuals, such as Peter Joseit need to survive “ there are the more and the author of David Dare, in the waters distortions can only be indistinguishable, apparently have no problem in of a constantly answered by determined and therefore the believing in the rightness of their changing more secure, they as cause. and churning and rational arguments. individuals become. Of course, skepticism is not world. Anchors ” Third, the need to a corollary of intelligence, but also help give know that everything something must happen to blinker people a stable platform from which will be alright in the end. This isn’t these people’s intuitive common they can observe their social and quite the “she’ll be right” attitude so sense, to encourage them to physical environment, and from often deplored in the stereotypical surrender any capacity for objective there understand how they fit in Australian. It is much more and critical thought, or else why go and contribute to the stream of life fundamental than that, having less to such lengths to try and prove the of which they are a part. In the case to do with apathy than the need to 44 The Skeptic December 16

believe that someone, somewhere, is extreme stand they take, and their system that can accept neither in control, and that nothing they as attachment to a literal interpretation challenge nor change have no choice individuals can do will alter what is of entirely symbolic passages in the but to stridently proselytise, attacking going to happen. Bible. all other belief systems as not only The only effect their actions will Of course, it can be said that a wrong, but inherently evil, even if have is on their personal fate, for skeptic who is an atheist, and whose those belief systems happen to belong example, whether or not they are belief system is based on science, is to other sects within the same broad saved. also taking an extreme stand. The religious family as their own. Fourth, the need for supreme difference, however, is that science Fundamentalists have every right authority. This is related to the third is open to to proselytise, and reason, insofar as it is important that challenge, is to try and prove someone be in control. But this also based on ideas the rightness of covers the need some people have to and theories that their point of view. be able to refer to a source of moral are vulnerable to To that extent, at authority, and to believe that this new ideas and least, we as skeptics authority has established a set of laws theories. A belief have no reason to and conditions that all must obey, or system based on object or interfere. else retribution will quickly follow. science offers a However, the The Bible teaches that the Jews way to interpret tendency many suffered conquest and Diaspora and understand the physical universe, fundamentalists have to mislead (dispersion) because they failed, as but does not establish parameters people, intentionally or otherwise, a people, to keep God’s law. It is within which the universe must by distorting or lying about science this belief that encourages many operate. and history, can only be answered by fundamentalists to become involved in As well, there are skeptics whose determined and rational arguments. politics - if the whole country does not belief system is based on the Bible We may have no chance of changing conform to God’s law, then disaster and its teachings as well as science, the minds of the fundamentalists will be sure to follow. From this stems but who do not take every word themselves, for all the reasons that not only a respect for most established in that book to be literally true. have been given above, but at least by secular authorities, but also a desire Most Christians have no difficulty speaking out we will give those people to wield that authority themselves, reconciling a figurative interpretation who have not yet made up their minds sometimes with horrendous results; of Genesis with a belief in evolution, one way or the other, a balanced and, there could be few governments in for example. hopefully, reasonably objective point the world more dictatorial than Iran’s, It would seem, therefore, that of view. . run by conservative, fundamentalist fundamentalists caught in a belief theocrats. In these situations there is always a danger of BIBLIOGRAPHY leader worship. Casson, Lionel. 1977. Ancient Egypt, Top: Ts.Nimaione caeperor si odit, Time-Life Books. quis molorero que remolore REASONS NOT TO BELIEVE Hobson, Christine. 1987. The World Right: Ts.Nne caeperor si odne The next question is why do of the Pharaohs, New York. caeperor si od fundamentalists express these Magnusson, Magnus. 1977. BC - needs in the way that they The Archaeology of the Bible Lands, do? It is simplistic to say that London. they find modern, secular Romer, John.1989. “Testament” ABC and democratic society Books. lacking in the qualities Romer, John.1989. Valley of the they consider necessary for Kings, Penguin. an ideal and sustainable Wood, Michael. 1985. In Search of community, because all the Trojan War, BBC Books.. of us can probably find areas in our own society that could do with Note: This Classic Catch article considerable improvement. was originally published, as part What is unique about of the article on the prophecies of fundamentalists, at least Daniel, in The Skeptic, Vol 9 No the Christian variety, is the 4 Summer 1989 45 ARTICLE Poltergeists Broken Tech F

o Ghost Hunting Colin Dickey says that the best tools for tracking down spirits have always been the ones fallible enough to find something.

he small, Syracuse, New York- “specially calibrated for paranormal or virtually any kind of electronic T based company K-II Enterprises investigators”, the Safe Range (usually device that occasionally gives off makes a number of handheld electronic referred to as a K-II meter) has become electromagnetic waves. The reviewer devices, including the Dog Dazer, a ubiquitous among those looking Kenny Biddle found he could set it off supposedly safe, humane device that for spirits. Search for it on Amazon, with, among other things, a computer deters aggressive dogs with high- and many listings mouse and a camera pitched radio signals. But it is best will refer to it as a For the believer, this battery pack. known for the Safe Range EMF. The “ghost meter,” an “ Yet it’s precisely size of a television remote, the Safe indispensable tool is where ghosts live: in because it’s not Range EMF detects electromagnetic in the ghost hunter’s static, in glitches, and particularly good fields, or EMF, measuring them with arsenal. It isn’t alone at its primary a bright LED array that moves from among EMF meters: in blurs. purpose that makes green to red depending on their Of the best-selling ” it a popular device strength. Designed to locate potentially EMF meters on for ghost hunters. harmful EMF radiation from nearby Amazon, two out of the top three are Erratic, prone to false positives, easily power lines or household appliances, explicitly marketed as ghost meters. manipulated, its flashy LED display the Safe Range has become popular for Scanning the various product will light up any darkened room of a another use: detecting ghosts. descriptions and reviews, though, haunted hotel or castle. Which is to Since its appearance what becomes clear is that the K-II say, its popularity as a ghost hunting in the show Ghost Safe Range is a relatively unreliable tool stems mainly from its fallibility. Hunters, where electromagnetic field meter. It operates The K-II isn’t the only consumer- the ghost hunter only on one axis (you have to wave it electronic item used by ghost hunters. Grant Wilson around to get a proper reading), and Often it’s sold in kits that contain claimed that it’s unshielded, meaning that it can be other devices, such as a Couples Ghost it has been set off by a cell phone, a two-way radio, Hunt Kit, with two of everything, The Skeptic December 16

so you can build “trust and lasting Right: William Mumler memories when the two of you, alone and one of his ghost in some spooky stakeout, look to each photos - Moses A Dow other for confirmation of your findings and the spirit of Mabel and reassurance!” There are devices that Warren (1871) have been engineered specifically for Below: Hearing voices - ghost hunters, like a ghost box, which Freidrich Jurgenson Broken Tech works by randomly scanning through FM and AM frequencies to pick up He told the spirits’ words in the white noise. But Spiritualist that mostly, ghost hunters use pre-existing the image was technology: not just EMF meters, but authentic, and that no one else had Ghost Hunting also run-of-the-mill digital recorders, been around when he’d taken the used to capture electronic voice photograph. His friend took the joke phenomena, or EVP. An investigator all too seriously, and in short order, records her or himself asking questions Spiritualist publications had reprinted in an empty room, with the hope that Mumler’s mistake as proof of life after upon playback ghostly voices will death. Mumler himself soon changed appear. his tune, claiming he’d discovered a All of this technology - both the “wonderful phenomenon that really custom and the repurposed - works needed investigation,” and began along more or less the same principle: offering to make spirit photographs generating a lot of static and random in earnest. For ten dollars (normal effects, hoping to capture random noise sittings cost about a quarter at the day - and specifically, the ways that and other ephemera. The ghost hunter, time), he’d take your photo, with the mistakes and accidents of technology in turn, looks for patterns, momentary proviso he couldn’t guarantee a ghost’s appear as manifestations of the convergences, serendipity, meaningful materialisation. paranormal. Consumer technologies coincidence. For the believer, this is Mumler’s inadvertent invention from photography to telegraphy where ghosts live: in static, in glitches of spirit photography cemented to radio to the internet are almost and in blurs. a connection between ghosts and always immediately seized on by technology that endures to this believers as offering further proof of MUMLER’S LITTLE GIRL the paranormal. In 1953, three Ghost hunting was born out of children were watching Ding a love of technological failure. Dong School one afternoon on In 1861, William H. Mumler, a Long Island when the ghostly jeweller’s engraver, was studying face of an unknown woman the new trade of photography appeared on the screen. The face when the shadowy figure of a would not dissipate, even after young girl appeared on a plate the television was turned off, and he was developing. As Crista their father was forced to face the Cloutier describes in The Perfect television to the wall “for gross Medium: Photography and the misbehaviour in frightening little Occult, Mumler knew it to children,” as The New York Times be an error, a consequence of reported. The television died accidentally reusing a plate that completely a day later, but not hadn’t been sufficiently scrubbed before its paranormal nature had of its previous exposure. But made it a minor celebrity. then he showed the curiosity to a Spiritualist friend of his. “Not HEARING VOICES at that time being inclined much For Friedrich Jürgenson, it to the spiritual belief myself, was a tape recorder. In the late and being of a jovial disposition, 1950s, Jürgenson, a painter and always ready for a joke,” he later filmmaker, was experimenting admitted, “I concluded to have with recording birds in his a little fun, as I thought, at his garden. When he played them expense.” back, he heard voices on the tape 0347 ARTICLE Poltergeists

Left: Disturbing messages: Konstantin Raudive. Broken Tech of Below: Ghost hunters in the age of iPhones - Ghost Hunting lapping up the latest technology. Bottom: The Ding Dong School telly Continued...

that he claimed belonged to his dead father and wife, calling his name. After several years refining his technique, he published his findings in a 1967 book called Radio Contact with the Dead. A few years later, a Latvian psychologist named Konstantin Raudive further developed and elaborated on Jürgenson’s techniques, releasing his own book on the science of recording the voices of the dead in 1971. Raudive’s transcriptions included some disturbing messages from the beyond. One voice told him: “Here is to dredge meaning out of chaos. a new Information Age, one in which night brothers, here the birds burn.” Evolutionarily, we have long needed to data, truth, and knowledge were the Another reported: “Secret reports ... discern the sight or sound of a predator new currency, where the future would it is bad here.” But Raudive confessed despite its camouflage, which has led be built on information itself. Twenty that the ghosts didn’t always speak so us to look for patterns where they years on, there’s an endless labyrinth clearly. He claimed that spirits would might not be immediately evident. The of conspiracy theories, fake memes, speak in multiple languages, sometimes quirks and shortcomings of technology trumped up stats, and fabricated in the same sentence. Sometimes they plays directly into this biological need: evidence. The world’s knowledge is just would speak backward. Deciphering throwing out random static and noise a Google search away, but it comes to EVP became a matter of sifting through that is primed to be transmuted into us inextricably intertwined with the any acoustic anomaly that shows up on meaningful signals. Ghost hunters world’s bullshit. a tape, however minor or incoherent, work through confirmation bias. The 21st-century media consumer and then torturing that noise into some Looking for proof of the paranormal, is always working to sift through the kind of meaning. they will find it in anything, but most noise in search of a signal. Whether it’s Electronic voice phenomena have readily in static, gibberish, and errata a cousin’s anti-vax Facebook post, the continued to rank among the most - technological noise in which we’re endless ‘friend’ requests that have to prominent ‘evidence’ offered of hardwired to find false positives. be filtered out of a feed, or the colossal paranormal activity, it seems, precisely The only thing that’s changed avalanche of half-truths and lies because humans are hardwired recently is the proliferation of consumer dumped during the US election, most electronics associated with ghost people’s primary challenge online these hunting. In an age of iPhones and days is blocking out the endless assault Fitbits, ghost hunters are just one more of static, trying to torture it into some niche market, lapping up the latest and kind of meaning. . greatest gadgets for sale. But there’s one crucial difference: most purveyors Note: ©2016 The Atlantic Media of consumer electronics keep their Co, as first published in The Atlantic consumers happy by constantly refining Magazine. All rights reserved. them until they’re free of bugs. Ghost Distributed by Tribune Content Agency. tech works the other way, by actively engineering glitches - the more, the better. Such seekers can easily be written off as kooks and outliers, but there’s About the author: something paradigmatic in their use of Colin Dickey is the author faulty devices. The rise of the internet of Ghostland: An American and other new technologies promised History in Haunted Places. 48 ARTICLE Poltergeists The Skeptic December 16 APPS APPARITIONS

but who gives an ominously levitating Appolicious 4reports blanket about looks when you’re out to hunt down beings residing in the hidden on some Android apps layers of reality? As for the app’s abilities, for your next trip to a it makes use of the sensors built into your Android device so that your phone haunted house or tablet becomes capable of detecting and analysing EMFs and detecting, recording, and analysing EVPs. ccording to Appolicious, a website Adevoted to apps for your Android PARANORMAL GHOST EVP/EMF RADIO phone (androidapps.com), “There are two The app’s developers warn all potential kinds of people in the world: those who users in a short message about the have had a paranormal experience and are dangers of using Paranormal Ghost entirely aware of the fact that they have EVP/EMF Radio (http://tinyurl.com/ seen, heard, or even dreamt something lgpzg3b), and advise the faint-hearted, that is beyond comprehension and sorts of otherworldly entities. the skeptic, and those with any heart- defies the laws upon which our reality is Being a detector app, Ghost Hunting related conditions to avoid this ghost thought to be based; and there are those Tools takes advantage of the assortment hunting tool as if it were a haunted who have had a paranormal experience of sensors built into your Android mansion in a faraway forest frequented and consequently do everything in their device, turning your phone or tablet by evil spirits and flesh-eating zombie powers to rationalize and explain the into an all-in-one EMF (electromagnetic cats. irrational and the inexplicable. field) meter and EVP (electronic What we’re trying to say is that you “If you deem yourself a proud member voice phenomena) detector. With the should take note and proceed with of the former group and chose the path of triple axis EMF meters, you can spot caution! the believer as it pertains to paranormal electromagnetic anomalies to reveal Paranormal Ghost EVP/EMF Radio activity, the ghost hunting Android the presence of paranormal entities, has all the tools you need for your apps we’re about to introduce will come while the EVP detector will thoroughly ghost hunting adventures: a built-in in handy during your ghost-chasing analyse the sounds you capture during EMF scanner to detect electromagnetic adventures. Be very careful, though, your ghost hunting sessions, and, with anomalies, an EVP with real-time audio because, as they say, finding what you’re a priceless contribution from the Word visualisation and an Optional Auto looking for is not always a good thing.” Interpreter and its built-in dictionary, Recording tool so that the app only the app will sift through your audio starts recording when it encounters GHOST HUNTING TOOLS (DETECTOR) files to find bone-chilling words and something noteworthy. Ghost Hunting Tools (http://tinyurl. expressions in your recordings. Despite the initial adrenaline rush, com/hfqotcw) is an easy-to-use app ghost hunting can become a chore with boasting a matter-of-fact design ENTITY SENSOR PRO – EMF DETECTOR hours of sitting around and waiting reminiscent of Entity Sensor Pro for a paranormal old school arcade (http://tinyurl. miracle, so games. That com/c8cvbzt) is Paranormal Ghost’s doesn’t mean that the granddaddy audio and vibration you should make of Android-based alarms will come the mistake of ghost hunting in handy to snap not taking GHT apps. ESP’s you out of the seriously, as it function-over- monotony that comes equipped form attitude is often precedes with a variety of reflected in the unforgettable tools that will help stripped-down moments. . you hunt down all retro design, 0349 ARE YOU SKEPTICAL? Are reason, science, education, critical thinking and common sense important to you? Then you should subscribe to The Skeptic.

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Send to: The Skeptic PO Box 20, Ph: (02) 8094 1894 —Mobile: 0432 713 195 Beecroft, NSW 2119 Fax: (02) 8088 4735—email: [email protected] ARTICLE History Tour The Skeptic December 16

You can keep your Borley Rectories and Scottish Lochs, here be demonic apples, recalcitrant toads and vrykolakases.

Old Stories fromOld Europe

he following Top 10 list from “It cannot be doubted that this apple authorities kept the shoemaker’s corpse T listverse.com looks at the best was full of devils and that a witch had aboveground for six days and then European places to visit over the last been foiled in an attempt to give it to reburied it in a different spot. Shortly 100 years or so. someone.” afterward, there came reports of him The website notes that “Before the attacking the townspeople again. Age of Enlightenment in the 18th 2 THE SHOEMAKER OF BRESLAU On May 7, the shoemaker’s body was century, people in Europe believed in In September 1591, a shoemaker in dug up one last time. To ensure that he demons, ghosts, witches, vampires, Breslau (modern-day Wroclaw, Poland) stayed dead, his head and limbs were and more. Even some educated people, committed suicide by slitting his chopped off and his heart was removed. like judges and priests, took the throat. Mere weeks after he was buried, Then his remains were set on fire, and paranormal seriously. They debated the townspeople reported seeing his his ashes were tossed into a river. and investigated a number of bizarre ghastly figure in their homes during the ‘true’ stories, many of which survive to night. They would wake up and find 3 THE GANDILLION WEREWOLF FAMILY this day.” the shoemaker lying on top of their In 1598, a brother and sister of bodies, crushing them with his weight St Claude in eastern France were 1 THE HAUNTED APPLE OF ANNECY and physically attacking them. attacked by a wolf that the boy said In 1585, an apple was seen floating over In April 1592, the townspeople dug had a human face. When a group of a bridge in Annecy, a city in south- up the shoemaker’s body. Amazingly, peasants went looking for the wolf, eastern France. For two hours, the it had not rotted at all. The baffled they stumbled upon a girl named apple levitated in the air and emitted Perrenette Gandillion (also spelt a loud noise, terrifying passers-by who Gandillon). Seeing blood on her dress, needed to cross the bridge. Eventually, the mob killed the poor girl on the a less intimidated traveller came spot. Perrenette’s family had long been forward, armed with a stick. The man rumoured to be involved with the whacked the apple into the water, Devil. which was covered by the bridge. The terrible noise from the strange apple Top : Caspar David Friedrich’s Abbey in the then stopped, and peace was restored. Oakwood, 1810 According to Judge Henri Boguet, Left: Lobishomen, European vampires 0351 ARTICLE History Tour

Old Stories Fanshawe had seen a banshee who from Old Europe appeared every time somebody Continued... in the family died. He said that the woman After her death, her brother Pierre, was the wife of a sister Antoinette, and nephew Georges distant ancestor. were also accused of being werewolves. The ancestor Pierre claimed that he could turn into had drowned a wolf when he wore wolf’s skin, while the woman in Georges said that his transformation the castle’s moat was caused by wearing an ointment. because his family Judge Henri Boguet, who had had disapproved of her ordered the executions of over 600 lowly origins. suspected witches during his career, was put in charge of the case. Firmly 5 THE RESURRECTED BOY convinced that the Gandillion family OF DALHEIM was a bunch of werewolves, he sentenced During medieval times, it them to be burned at the stake. was believed that demons could possess or reanimate 4 LADY FANSHAWE’S dead bodies by filling BANSHEE ENCOUNTER them with air or another In 1642, the English memoirist substance. In 1581 in Lady Fanshawe and her husband, Sir what is now Dalheim, Richard, visited the ancestral castle Luxembourg, a succubus of a friend in County Clare, Ireland convinced a man to kill his own son. [possibly Bunratty or Castle Lake, or so After the man realised what he had automaton, kept reanimated by the the story goes – Ed]. One night, while done, he became grief-stricken. Seeing demon’s limited powers of magic. sleeping in her bed, Lady Fanshawe was an opportunity for more mischief, the startled awake by a piercing scream. She succubus offered to revive the man’s 6 THE AIRSHIP VISITORS OF LYON turned her face toward the window and son if the man promised to love her in In 852, a group of three men and one was shocked to see a woman looking return. With the use of the succubus’s woman were reported to have come in at her and shrieking. Terrified, Lady magic, the boy was resurrected from down from “aerial ships” to the city of Fanshawe watched the strange woman the dead and carried on living just as Lyon. The mob that gathered accused scream several more times before the he had before. After a year, however, the visitors of being evil magicians who woman vanished into thin air. the boy inexplicably became sick and wanted to ruin their crops. But the When morning came, Lady suddenly collapsed back into a corpse. visitors insisted that they were ordinary, Fanshawe’s host explained that a family It turned out that the succubus’s peaceful people from the same country member had passed away in the castle resurrection had been an illusion. who had been abducted by magical the previous night and that Lady The boy’s body had been an empty men and taken to a place in the sky called Magonia. Before the mob became violent, a bishop named Agobard came running to the scene. He dismissed the visitors’ story as complete fantasy. Since Agobard was a greatly respected

Top: The Berkeley witch carried off by The Devil in the 11th century (woodcut dated 1555). Above:The Bishop of Lyon, Agobard, spots an airship over 9th century Lyon (not an original depiction). Left: Lyon, a littler later, sans airship. 40 The Skeptic December 16

man, the townspeople accepted his A skeleton, trapped in chains, was skepticism and the strangers were left found buried there. The authorities the Logical Place unharmed. never identified the remains, and the Nevertheless, some modern UFO chained ghost was never seen again. Conjunction Fallacy researchers have judged the story to be ne of the central assumptions of true, claiming it to be an example of 9 THE BERKELEY WITCH ABDUCTION O mainstream economics has been premodern alien contact. In the early 12th century, the that people make rational choices. As historian and monk William of challenge to this assumption, Nobel 7 THE TOAD OF FLANDERS Malmesbury wrote about a dying Prize-winning behavioural economist Around 1595, a father and son woman in Berkeley, England, who Prof Daniel Kahneman gives an example drinking at a tavern near Flanders confessed to her children that she’d where some Americans were offered a argued with a waitress over the price been a slave of the Devil and a witch. choice of insurance against their own of their drinks. Just as they were The woman begged to be buried in a death in a terrorist attack while on a trip leaving, the waitress yelled that they stone coffin wrapped in iron chains so to Europe, or insurance that would cover would not be able to get home that that demons wouldn’t steal her body. death of any kind on the trip. People day. When the father and son got to She got her wish, and the local church were willing to pay more for the former the bank of the river, they found it agreed to watch her coffin for three insurance, even though “death of any impossible to move their boat. Even days and nights before it was buried. kind” includes “death in a terrorist when a group of soldiers helped them On the third night, a demon attack”. pull it, the boat wouldn’t budge. suddenly tore off the church’s front This is an instance of the Conjunction Noticing a toad in the boat, the door. As the clergy watched in horror, Fallacy, which is based on the false soldiers attacked the creature with the demon walked up to the stone assumption that more specific conditions their swords and flung it into the river. coffin, ripped it open, and dragged the are more probable than general ones. The boat was now magically loose. woman’s body to a black horse outside. This fallacy usually stems from thinking To thank the soldiers, the father took The woman was tossed onto the horse’s the choices are alternatives, rather than them to the tavern for a drink. When back, which was covered in iron barbs, members of the same set. the group arrived, the father heard and carried away into the night. The logical form of this fallacy is: that the waitress who had served him X is a subset of Y; therefore, X is more earlier had suddenly become very sick. 10 THE VRYKOLAKAS OF MYKONOS probable than Y. Despite not leaving the tavern after While visiting Mykonos in 1700, The probability of a conjunction is the argument, the waitress died that French botanist Joseph Pitton de never greater than the probability of its day from her neck and stomach being Tournefort learned of a dead peasant conjuncts. In other words, the probability cut open in the same spots where the who kept coming back to life at night. of two things being true can never be toad had been attacked. After his murder by an unknown greater than the probability of one of assailant while working in the fields, them being true, since in order for both 8 THE CHAINED GHOST OF BOLOGNA the man supposedly became a to be true, each must be true. However, In the mid-16th century, Spanish law vrykolakas, an undead creature similar when people are asked to compare student Vasquez de Ayola and two to the vampires of Eastern Europe. the probabilities of a conjunction and friends were looking for a place to live At first, this vrykolakas was one of its conjuncts, they sometimes in Bologna, Italy. They found a large mostly harmless, turning furniture judge that the conjunction is more likely abandoned house that was said to be upside down and hugging people than one of its conjuncts. This seems to haunted. But Ayola and his friends from behind. Then the islanders happen when the conjunction suggests didn’t believe in ghosts, so they had no got annoyed, so they dug up the a scenario that is more easily imagined qualms about moving in. vrykolakas and tore out his heart. than the conjunct alone. One night, while his friends This didn’t stop the vrykolakas, which Interestingly, Kahneman discovered were asleep, Ayola suddenly heard began to beat people up, break their in earlier experiments that statistical the sound of chains being pulled roofs, and steal their alcohol. sophistication made little difference in across the floor outside his room. According to Tournefort, some the rates at which people committed Investigating, Ayola found a ghostly people fled their homes and others the conjunction fallacy. This suggests skeleton covered in chains waiting by visited the vrykolakas’s grave to attack that it is not enough to teach probability the staircase. The ghost led Ayola to it with a sword as it slept during the theory alone, but that people need to a spot in the courtyard’s garden and daytime. Eventually, the authorities learn directly about the conjunction vanished. ordered the vrykolakas to be moved to fallacy in order to counteract the strong The next day, after Ayola told nearby Saint George Island, where its psychological effect of imaginability. the authorities what had happened, body was burned and destroyed. - by Tim Harding the spot in the garden was dug up. Plan your next trip now. . 53 REGULARS

The cycle of life ABRACADABRA Magicians, ethics, names, and laws. Magic (sometimes referred to as stage or street magic to distinguish it from paranormal or And so it goes, the almost inevitable ritual magic) is one of the oldest performing arts in realisation that all knowledge is the world in which audiences are entertained by staged tricks or illusions of seemingly impossible or supernatural connected and connectable. feats using natural means. The term “magic” etymologically derives from the Greek word mageia. Persian priests, called magosh in Persian, came to be known as magoi in Greek. Ritual acts of Persian priests came to be known as mageia, and DON’T YOU KNOW IT’S MAGIC then magika, which eventually came to mean any foreign, unorthodox, or illegitimate ritual practice. The term “magi” Robert-Houdin gave shows to in the Bible derives from the plural of the Latin “magus”, theatre and select audiences. Whereas though in this case it refers, presumably, to their role in his performances in Europe had been the Zoroaster religion. as much for fun as anything else, his performances in Algeria were given straight- faced. He was a pioneer in using the latest technology in his act. This included a “light and heavy chest” using magnets to control whether a box could be lifted or not (see picture far right), allied to giving an electric shock if the subject tried to interfere with the trick. His mission was a success, and even though he later insisted to his Arab audience that he used magic tricks rather than sorcery, his accomplishments remind us of science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke’s What goes around ... Third Law: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” FAKIN’ IT In 1856, Robert-Houdin was asked by Louis- Napoleon to come out of retirement to pacify the tribes in French Algeria. During this period, the French Army commanders maintained order in the newly conquered region. They supervised local Muslim administrations and the bureaux arabes in areas which were closed to colonisation by Europeans. Napoleon III was worried about a religious group called the Marabouts, who were able to control their tribe with their faux magical abilities. They advised their leaders to break ranks with the French, and Napoleon wanted Robert-Houdin to show that French magic Arthur C Clarke, having a quiet was stronger. moment in his library, no doubt

formulating a few laws. Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

54 The Skeptic December 16

DO YOU WANT TO KNOW A SECRET ABRACADABRA The first book containing explanations of magic Magic (sometimes referred to as stage or tricks, The Discoverie of Witchcraft by Reginald Scot, street magic to distinguish it from paranormal or appeared in 1584, and included a section devoted to debunking ritual magic) is one of the oldest performing arts in claims that magicians used supernatural methods. Revealing how the world in which audiences are entertained by staged tricks are done (“exposure”) is considered unprofessional by magicians, tricks or illusions of seemingly impossible or supernatural who believe that it ruins the experience of magical performances for feats using natural means. The term “magic” etymologically audiences, not to mention the income of magicians. The joint Bylaws of derives from the Greek word mageia. Persian priests, called the International Brotherhood of Magicians (IBM) and the Society of magosh in Persian, came to be known as magoi in Greek. American Magicians (SAM) say that, with a few exceptions such as Ritual acts of Persian priests came to be known as mageia, and being an integral part of the act, “members shall not reveal the Erik Weisz, chained to his ethics then magika, which eventually came to mean any foreign, modus operandi of magic effects or principles to the and his name, which he copied unorthodox, or illegitimate ritual practice. The term “magi” lay public” (IBM Bylaws, Code of Ethics, Section in the Bible derives from the plural of the Latin “magus”, 10, par D). from the man below. though in this case it refers, presumably, to their role in the Zoroaster religion. HONESTY The National President of the SAM from 1917–1926 was probably the most famous ‘magician’ of all, Harry Houdini (born Erik Weisz, later Ehrich Weiss or Harry Weiss; 1874-1926). He first attracted notice in vaudeville in the US and then as “Harry Handcuff Houdini” on a tour of Europe. As President of SAM, he was keen to uphold professional standards and expose fraudulent artists, particularly spiritualists whom he targeted for What goes around ... much of his later life. He was also quick to sue anyone who imitated his escape stunts. In 1908 Houdini YOU KNOW MY NAME wrote a book titled wrote The Unmasking of Robert-Houdin, believing that the titular This action might be surprising, seeing as magician took undue credit for other Houdini adopted his stage name after having magicians’ innovations. read and been impressed by the autobiography of French magician Jean-Eugène Robert-Houdin (1805- 1871). But Houdini later lost his youthful respect for the man widely considered the father of the modern style Jean-Eugene of conjuring. Robert-Houdin’s act included mind-reading, Robert-Houdin levitation, and making objects disappear and reappear. His inventions were pirated by his trusted mechanic would never Le Grand, who was arrested for making and selling let an unwilling duplicate illusions. He was a pioneer of performing decapitation get in theatres and private parties as opposed to in the way of previous practice which was to perform in using the latest marketplaces and fairs. He retired technology. Source: Wikipedia, except where noted in 1853.

55 REVIEWS Scientology + Physics Giving the Church a service

Fair Game more to the story than my memory afforded. By Steve Cannane That’s the point, of course: there’s a lot to this story, starting from when L Ron Hubbard, ABC Books/HarperCollins, AUD$32.99 recently demobilised from the US Navy, invented Dianetics and eventually Scientology, to its importation to Australia, to the present day. In ack in 1994 I wrote to the now- fact, Australia and Australians play a passably Bdefunct Southern Skeptic about pivotal rôle in the history of Scientology so that a curious episode in the history there’s a lot to tell. of Scientology in South Australia, Steve Cannane (an ABC journalist) makes it where I grew up. into a pretty good story, with chapters largely “There was a bit of trouble about alternating between accounts of events in the Scientology in South Australia USA and events in Australia. It turns out to during 1968 (or possibly 1969). be a clever way to do things because of the Certain Members of State Parliament intertwining of the personalities and events, were troubled by it and introduced and there is something of a continued story line legislation to stop it. At this time through the book. one Mr. […], a Scientologist, made Back in the 1960s, when politicians starting comments which were considered to become interested in Scientology, several by the (I think) Upper House to newspapers joined the campaign against it, require him to be reprimanded by Rupert Murdoch’s among them. According to the House. This took place with Cannane, Scientology does not forgive nor forget due ceremony, with Mr. […] at the and eventually, after some decades, it tried to bar (or whatever it is) of the House, get Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan to join up, and was probably reported on the front page of by way of numerous adventures involving Tom The Advertiser. I remember the name quite well Cruise, Nicole Kidman and James Packer. The because I had worked with Mr. […] in a vacation Scientology organisation could make things very job over the summer holidays 1967–8 and it attractive to celebrity recruits like these, by using was a bit of a shock to find him in this position. very low-paid labour to perform such chores as Needless to say, I had found him a perfectly scrubbing the car parks they would use. reasonable workmate. In the course of the narrative we learn about “Eventually the legislation was passed and the Board of Inquiry into Scientology in Victoria, Scientology was outlawed, to an extent at least, in which produced what is usually known as the South Australia. Anderson Report, and we learn some details “However, now it gets a bit interesting. about how the High Court of Australia found In due course the Scientology organisation that Scientology is a religion, at least for certain reacted, and it did so by changing its name to purposes, including taxation. We learn a good the ‘Church of Scientology’. As a result, so the deal about the scandal involving Chelmsford logic went, the outlawing amounted to religious Private Hospital and “deep sleep therapy”, which discrimination, which would be unacceptable. So Scientology was instrumental in exposing. And it was indeed found (by some court I suppose) we find out about some of the more recent efforts and so Scientology more or less took up in South made, without much success, against Scientology, Australia where it had left off, with a slightly notably by Senator Nick Xenophon. changed name.” Fair Game is extensively referenced. While My reason for writing back then was to find there are references to documents in the public out whether this episode in South Australia was domain, such as the Anderson Report and the whole reason why Scientology these days Hansard, a lot of the references are to private describes itself as a religion. emails or phone calls or interviews and so to an And so when I heard about this book, “The extent the reader has to take what Cannane says untold story of Scientology in Australia”, I on trust. Cannane hardly had any alternative, bought it straight away, wondering whether of course, and so it’s a question of whether the it would answer my question. And it did: the whole story adds up, and that is for you to judge. answer is No, but, as is always the case, there’s To me, Fair Game is credible, seems 56 The Skeptic December 16

comprehensive, and is a good read. The book Scientology earlier this year. does have a more than usual number of typos, And I’ll close with a mention of a new novel or perhaps I should say more than the number that came my way just as I was reading Fair of typos that books usually used to have. Oddly, Game. It’s about a Sydney man who sets up a most of these typos occur in the first half of the religion! It’s written by a friend of mine, Duncan book, but in any case, they aren’t so numerous as Smith, and it’s called Cultown, from Alphadex to make the book intolerable to read. Books. It’s a good solid story about your typical So yes, I do recommend this book to those heavy metal musician (and a CD comes with the interested in Scientology, which probably book!) who finds a better way to make money. As includes most readers of this magazine. a bonus, it contains a mention of an organisation Postscripts: called the Naysayers’ Society, which gives an Those who don’t yet follow the Oh No, Ross annual award called the Bent Fork. and Carrie podcast at http://ohnopodcast.com/ (“We show up so you don’t have to”) may be - Reviewed by Daryl Colquhoun interested in their series of nine podcasts on The little book of Awe

Seven Brief Lessons on Physics who shares the same excitement, enthusiasm and By Carlo Rovelli thirst for knowledge that he clearly shows, and who also knows something about physics and Penguin, AUD$12.99 more than a smattering of science. The opening three chapters are clear and would appeal to his supposed target audience – n this little book – it’s barely 80 his exposition of general relativity is brief and Ipages – it is evident on every page yet offers an understandable picture of what it all that the author loves science and is in means. Likewise, to a certain extent, the second awe of theories of physics and those chapter on quantum mechanics, which can who develop them. Across seven always be a difficult subject and hard to grasp. chapters the topics covered are Einstein’s His chapter on the nature of the cosmos gives a “beautiful theory” of general relativity; good explanation of how the theories discussed the intriguing nature of quantum in the two previous chapters come together – mechanics; the architecture of the despite some contradictions - in the universe. cosmos; elementary particles; quantum From then on he gets into deeper water. Loop gravity; and probability, time and heat. quantum gravity, the nature of heat, and the fluid These are followed by a seventh chapter nature of time are complex concepts that need to on “ourselves”, our relationship with be explained clearly, and not for the faint hearted, the world of physics and with our and definitely not for those with no knowledge environment. of science. The concepts are hard, the wording Carlo Rovelli is a theoretical physicist can be difficult and the jargon and terminology and currently director of the quantum not intuitive. It is the sort of stuff you have to gravity research group of the Centre go back and read a second time; if your mind de Physique Theorique in Marseille. Seven Brief wanders, you’ve lost it. Lessons has been translated into 31 languages and To this reviewer, however, the last ‘closing’ is a best-seller around the world. chapter is extraneous to physics, getting into The opening words of his preface are: “These polemic on our place in the environment (and lesson were written for those who know little our abuse of it): “I believe that our species will or nothing about modern science.” I think he is not last long.” wrong. Read the book by all means. Read it for the While this is not a book written by a physicist awe and excitement. But choose your audience for other physicists, it is also not a book to be carefully. given to those who know nothing about science. It is something a physicist might give to someone - Reviewed by Tim Mendham 57 FORUM Disease A tick of disapproval In which we are bitten by parasites, alpha-gals, and other effects – which requires immediate medical attention. An Epi-pen or similar Lyme disease, TIARA, and freezing the little buggers. adrenalin injector should be used and 000 called immediately; urgent hospital attention is required. hose pesky ticks – officially Australian Some people react to bites with large skin T paralysis ticks, scientifically Ixodes welts, prolonged itching and other unpleasant holocyclus – are making their presence felt, localised effects. especially along almost the entire length of the Sometimes spotted fever or tick typhus or Australian east coast to about 20-30 kilometres other bacterial infections may occur (this is not inland. They thrive in humid and warm an exhaustive list). conditions. They antedate humans by millions Since 2007 it has been established that a more of years and they will probably see us off - they insidious consequence may come from a tick are survivors. bite, and does so for a rapidly growing number In the meantime, they are sticking their noses of people. There are thousands affected, just into and making life a misery for more and more in eastern Australia and more being identified humans unfortunate enough to play host to a every week. When a tick bites a mammal other questing female (the males feed off the females, than a human, great ape or Old World monkey but the females are out for blood). (primates do not qualify here), the paralysis tick The main tick hosts in the wild are may take up a carbohydrate known as alpha-gal bandicoots, possums, kangaroos, wallabies (galactose-alpha-1,3-galactose). [It has its own US and other warm-blooded beings – chiefly, but website: www.alpha-gal.org.] not exclusively, mammals (emus carry them, We do not have alpha-gal naturally. But for instance). With fox-baiting in some areas, when that tick bites a human, a bit of alpha-gal small mammals such as bandicoots are on the is injected with the saliva and is recognised by rise, and so are ticks. They feed off their hosts, the immune system, provoking the production questing between life cycle stages; that is, they of the allergy antibody which some humans sit on a stem and wave their forelegs to latch are constitutionally unable to neutralise. When onto the next passing meal or to find a mate one of these humans then eats mammalian to breed with. They climb no more than about meat with its alpha-gal (or in some cases has a half a metre above ground and cover a circle of mammalian product such as milk, cream, cheese, Ticks, carriers of Lyme about three metres – and so do not drop out of etc), they have a potentially life-threatening Disease (as this one) or trees, as some suspect. If one is on your head, it allergic reaction to the alpha-gal as it is released whatever variety, probably climbed up there and you did not feel by digestion from the mammalian meat eaten. antedate humans by it. They do not climb higher on shrubs and trees The allergy antibody in their system combines millions of years. because of the risk of dehydration. with the alpha-gal. This results in anaphylaxis: What has all this to do rash, itching, swelling, hives, breathing with Skeptics? Well… obstruction, low blood pressure, nausea, etc. Scientific study has shown This usually happens a few hours after eating, that tick-borne bacteria so the connection is often missed between the and other substances can reaction, the meat meal and a tick bite or bites cause health problems and perhaps a long time before. disease in humans (as in Any anaphylaxis can be fatal if not treated, other animals) and evidence typically with adrenalin, antihistamine, abounds. cortisone and oxygen. The MMA (mammalian Some people are so meat allergy) reaction may begin after one allergic to tick saliva (which tick bite or after frequent bites over a long is injected when a tick period of time. Sometimes a very small trace of bites) that they suffer an mammal product ingested by a MMA sufferer anaphylactic reaction almost may trigger only a rash and/or diarrhoea and instantly – swelling of the not anaphylaxis – but it is still very unpleasant. mouth and throat, breathing There are different degrees of MMA, some difficulties, rash, nausea people being extremely sensitive to even the 58 The Skeptic December 16

smell of a mammal product. like illness’ can cause harm to both the individual All this is based on evidence. Skeptics may (eg, cannula-related intravenous sepsis) and the relax. broader community (increased antimicrobial But there is talk in the Australian community resistance rates). of another possible consequence of tick bite “Until there is strong evidence from well – Lyme disease or a “Lyme-like disease” or performed clinical studies that bacteria present “Lyme disease-like illness”. There has even in Australia cause a chronic debilitating illness been a Senate inquiry into it - http://tinyurl. that responds to prolonged antibiotics, treating com/z228flp. This is where evidence-based patients with ‘Lyme disease-like illness’ with conclusions need to be separated from assertions prolonged antibiotic therapy is unjustified, and is without an evidence base. Skeptical inquiry likely to do much more harm than good.” territory! And that is really where the argument and Lyme disease is well documented outside of this article should end. No evidence, no disease Australia. The name comes from a small town here by that name. If people are suffering illness, in Connecticut, USA (near Old Lyme and East let it be accurately diagnosed and appropriately Lyme, if you are looking) where a cluster of the treated, not given a label that won’t stick and disease was identified, although the complaint may lead to further harm. had been known in the UK and elsewhere But because ticks in Australia really do cause well beforehand and is also caused by ticks in enough significant problems without Lyme Europe. It is caused by a bacterium Borrelia disease or its alleged imitator, a footnote is burgdorferi, spread by ticks – usually other than needed. Ixodes holocyclus (our paralysis tick) or other In 2013 TIARA (Tick-Induced Allergies MMA-causing ticks in, eg the USA. Research and Awareness Committee - www. There are people in Australia, some of whom tiara.org.au) was established at the Royal North could not have contracted the disease overseas, Shore Hospital, Sydney, under Clinical Associate who say they have Lyme disease or a Lyme-like Professor Sheryl van Nunen; I am co-chair of disease. They are receiving treatments that may this organisation. Our aim is to educate the or may not be appropriate for whatever it is community and health professionals, employers, that ails them and many have been induced to councils, schools and others about the known spend large sums on foreign investigations, such (evidence-based) dangers of tick bite and what as blood tests in Germany. The SBS program to do to avoid them. We are also seeking to raise Insight screened an episode on October 25, funds for further research to help combat these 2016, titled “Tick Sick” (http://tinyurl.com/ emergent allergies (most prevalent in Australia hyhy3z2). and now requiring more adrenalin carriage by The Australian Skeptics website carried a adults living in tick-endemic areas than peanut report (http://tinyurl.com/hedaqml) of an article allergy). in the Medical Journal of Australia about an The trick is to avoid ticks by preventive investigation and report by Collignon, Lum means, such as sprays, clothing, conduct, ground and Robson (2016) in which they concluded, in clearance, control of native mammals, etc) and, summary: if bitten, to remove them safely. That is best done “There is no convincing evidence that classic by putting away the tweezers and instead freezing Lyme disease occurs in Australia, nor is there them in situ with a spray containing ether (and evidence that the causative agent, Borrelia there are several available from the pharmacy, burgdorferi, is found in Australian animals or including wart and skin tag removers). That ticks. kills the tick and it will drop off later without “Lyme disease, however, can be acquired injecting its saliva. If you squeeze it, you propel overseas but diagnosed in Australia; most people saliva into the bite wound. And if you can’t see it, presenting with laboratory-confirmed Lyme don’t scratch it! (And don’t scratch it, anyway.) disease in Australia were infected in Europe. Freeze it, don’t squeeze it. That’s the take- “Despite the lack of evidence that Lyme home message for safely dealing with a tick. disease can be acquired in Australia, growing numbers of patients, their supporters, and some politicians demand diagnoses and treatment Nicholas Cowdery AM QC according to the protocols of the ‘chronic Lyme Northwood NSW disease’ school of thought. (whose wife suffers tick-induced MMA and who wants to help “Antibiotic therapy for chronic ‘Lyme disease- to prevent others from suffering similarly). 59 LETTERS To the Editor

neutralise the organism, to eliminate What you think ... those germs from our bodies. We do not remain carriers like Mary. In early vaccines (centuries ago to Vaccination response the late 20th century), these antigens were introduced into our bodies using live, attenuated (ie less virulent) arry Williams responds to a letter of injections has been completed, bacteria and viruses as in the use of B from Graeme Clinch regarding which varies considerably, eg just one Cowpox to prevent against Smallpox, the Great Pyramid of Khufu at Giza injection for Hepatitis A, but three and in the use of various flu viruses (“Pharaohs – the reasons why”, The injections over a period of three or six for influenza. Skeptic, Vol 36, No 3, p59). But he months for Hepatitis B. But modern vaccines are made leaves further questions from Graeme This leads us to Graeme’s question from dead organisms, non-infective, about vaccination to “members about ‘Typhoid Mary’, ie what’s to where the cell membranes have been infinitely more qualified” than he is. stop a vaccinated carrier (or apparent disrupted, and only the antigenic I am unaware whether you already natural immunity in Mary’s case) molecules are injected. have somebody available to answer infecting other people. Compare this to a “smoothie”. those questions, and far be it from me Typhoid Mary was a carrier of the There are no strawberries, bananas or to consider myself “infinitely” more disease, whereby the bacteria were guavas in a smoothie; there are just qualified, but, having been a medical on/in her body, but could not be the contents of those fruits. Likewise, practitioner for some 45 years, and eliminated by her immune system. there are no living organisms having been involved in research She herself did not suffer from the in a vaccine, just the antigenic regarding vaccines for diseases such as disease, but because she carried the molecules which can stimulate a Hepatitis C and influenza for at least bacteria, they could be passed on to protective antibody response in our two decades, I think I can justifiably others. This is also the explanation bloodstream. offer answers to these questions. for our not usually becoming ill from It is impossible to acquire the Graeme first asks why vaccination the bacteria we carry in and on our illness from the vaccine, and it is of adult or children suddenly makes bodies. impossible to pass the disease on, them safe to be around. There are two The modern prime example is because the vaccine does not contain reasons for this. Golden Staph (Staphylococcus aurens). living components of the disease. Firstly, although vaccinations This organism is what’s called a are not 100 per cent effective they commensal. It is not a parasite, and Dr Alan Moskwa, MB, BS certainly greatly reduce he likelihood we don’t benefit from being its host. It Magill SA of a person contracting that disease lives quite happily in our noses and in and carrying those germs. Thus those the creases of our armpits and groin, germs are not there to be passed on to on the surface of or skin. Sometimes, other people. So yes, it is safer to be however, should it get into our around vaccinated people. bloodstream, it can cause serious Secondly, this is also related to illness such as septicaemia (blood what is called “herd immunity”, poisoning), pneumonia, abscesses where mass vaccination reduces in organs such as lungs, brain and the incidence of a disease in the kidneys, and even death. community. So, again, as the disease Graeme also asks “so when is less likely to be there, it is less likely someone is vaccinated, giving them to be passed on to others. There is presumably artificial immunity to a no “reservoir” of disease, as there are particular condition, what’s to stop fewer vaccinated people. them infecting another person much It is important to remember that like Mary above?” vaccination does not make people Firstly, the immunity is real. It “suddenly” safe to be around. Partial is induced in the same way as the immunity does not begin until “native” infection would produce it. about two weeks after vaccination, It is induced by the exposure of our as it takes that long for our immune immune system to the antigens of cells to “gear up” the production of the surface of the bacterium or virus antibodies. And full immunity does concerned. These cause our immune not occur until the entire course system to develop in antibodies which 60 The Skeptic December 16

The ABC of AA treatment providers to one treatment of behavior change research; http:// modality over others. tinyurl.com/h9fvkkb.) Perhaps not A lot of the material about AA surprisingly, research is showing AA s a researcher and clinical in the article, however, is inaccurate and other 12-step programs exert a Apsychologist who specializes in and misleading. Since the Institute of variety of beneficial effects that lead to addiction, I would like to take this Medicine of the U.S. National Academy better recovery outcomes, including but opportunity to respond to the article, of Sciences made a call for more not limited to, boosting self-efficacy, “The ABC of AA” from the June [Vol rigorous research into AA in the mid- helping individuals manage negative 36, No 2] issue of The Skeptic. I hope 1990s, there has been an explosion of emotions and urges to use, and pro- you will share this with your readers. well executed, well controlled research abstinence social facilitation. This Much of what the author, Cassandra on AA, and other 12-step programs. research also suggests individuals draw Perryman says about the state of clinical As a result, there is now a high quality on these beneficial effects differentially and medical treatment for addictions is scientific literature speaking to AA’s depending on their level of addiction accurate. As with any treatment for any effectiveness (for rigorous review, see severity, and other factors such as a sex psychological disorder, one size does Kaskutas’ 2009 article titled, Alcoholics and age. not fit all, and too often individuals Anonymous Effectiveness: Faith Meets Part of the intractability of substance are offered treatments based on the Science, available at http://tinyurl. use disorder comes from the fact it is limitations of their financial resources com/jldgmt3). Based on this body an incredibly complex phenomena, rather than their actual treatment needs of research, AA is now considered by with multifarious bio-psycho-social or preferences. many experts to be an evidence-based antecedents. There will probably never Ideally everyone would get targeted intervention, contrary to what the be a panacea for addiction, but I hope treatments pitched to their needs and article reports. that, moving forward, the disparate goals, delivered by licensed, specialist The article also claims that no camps of addictions treatment can treatment providers. Such treatments research has been conducted on AA’s work together more cohesively. Rather might include any combination of specific mechanisms, and goes so than looking to disparaging different cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), far to purport that AA relies entirely approaches, which though not perfect pharmacotherapy, and peer support on placebo effect. There is in fact have been shown to benefit many from 12-Step meetings or programs a substantial scientific literature people seeking recovery, we should be like SMART Recovery, depending on addressing the specific components of asking ourselves what can each approach the needs and wants of the individual. AA that help individuals recover. (For add. This however is sadly often not an excellent summary see Kelly’s recent David Eddie, PhD the case, either due to a dearth of review in Addiction titled, Is Alcoholics Boston USA resources available to many people Anonymous religious, spiritual, neither? Research Scientist, Recovery Research Institute & Center for Addiction with addiction, or strong allegiances of Findings from 25 years of mechanisms Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital - Harvard Medical School

Cassandra Perryman replies …

oo often in our own field we are AA effectiveness. Again, there seems to view, will not be accepted by the wider Teager for answers and are not be something for everybody, and the skeptical community is the idea that the keen on discussing the elusiveness of literature really does seem to be widely mechanism of a wide spread program said answers. As such, open dialogue is subject to interpretation. This may stem relies on spirituality. important and is always encouraged. from the criterion being used to judge To that end, Dr Eddie has stated Dr Eddie has stated in his letter effectiveness.” what positive outcomes have been than there has been an explosion of In this case I suggest that Dr Eddie’s achieved through AA, which is “well executed, well controlled research criterion of evidence is different than important, but does not counter my on AA, and other 12-step programs”. mine. It is then up to the reader to statement that the mechanisms of AA I will concur that there has been an determine if either bar is correct, or if are elusive. They work for people who explosion of research, but well controlled one or both need adjusting. agree with the faith-based approach, is up for debate. As stated by Kaskutas Second, I will retract that no and work for people who respond well (2009): “A review summarising the studies have been conducted on the to social support. There are mediation state of the literature seven years later mechanisms, but I will clarify that no models which have confirmed both argued that there was a consistent, secular research appears to have been those aspects, but both constructs are rigorous body of evidence supporting conducted. One thing that, from my broad and cannot reasonably be stated 61 LETTERS To the Editor

to be specific mechanisms, or even My initial article did not state that at Harvard) in 2014 which, although quantifiable ones. social support is a negative means of biased, does a fantastic job summarising As stated by Kelly (2016), “a number recovery, but it is a complex means of the current-to-date body of research. of additional methodologically rigorous recovery. I will consistently contend, If his critique is correct, AA can only studies have supported AA working though, that replacing substance abuse be given credit for a 5–10 per cent through its own purportedly central with religiosity is not healthy, especially recovery rate. I will state that AA does mechanism – increasing spirituality”. when secular forms of AA exist. To that no harm on its own, but the cult-like The author continues to describe a end, I still am not going to sing the and religious nature of the program series of mediation models which praises of AA. undermine secular and critical thinking. tested specific mechanisms, and states Finally, Dr Eddie states that “Based It is my foremost drive to teach “AA confers benefit through multiple on this body of research, AA is now transparency, ethics, and skepticism mechanisms simultaneously … considered by many experts to be an in psychology. When the time comes those with lower addiction severity, evidence-based intervention, contrary that AA has reached my criterion on average, tended to benefit from to what the article reports.” I apologise for evidence, I will happily alter my AA almost entirely through social for the blatant nature of my reply, but teaching and professional approach to mechanisms. This was also true to a I can also find many experts who will include the AA treatment methodology. large extent for the more severe patients, find homeopathy to be a valid form of but these patients also benefitted by medical treatment. Cassandra Perryman AA’s ability to mobilise changes in I will point out the book written by Rainbow Beach Qld spirituality/religiosity.” Dr Lance Dodes (a psychiatry professor

CRYPTIC CROSSWORD SOLUTION DR BOB’S QUIZ SOLUTIONS

S E C N E T S I X E L I T E Y

I I R E T O C

C 3. 1956 – Melbourne and Stockholm. Equestrian events

S D R E N A E L D I S R O T R were not allowed in Australia due to quarantine rules.

E G E G N S L C 4. Mt Vesuvius erupted, devastating Naples, and the Italian

government had to divert funds from preparing for the

N R U N I A N O I T A N A M

E Rome Olympics to repair Naples and its surrounding

I R C A K C N

F areas. Rome would finally get its turn to host the Games

K C I T S D R A Y D U A R F G in 1960.

O B E T G E I E 5. Athletics, cycling, fencing, gymnastics and swimming.

6. One – a 192m sprint called a . H P M Y N L S N O I G I E R L stade

C I H E L R R E

Y C N A M O N E O E M E H T H THIS ISSUE’S ANSWERS:

S N U O R M S

I 1. Do You Believe in Magic – The Lovin’ Spoonful, 1965

P S E R S A X E T B M U L P

I (found in this issue’s “Them”, p9)

A S M I S U O U 2. Abracadrabra – Steve Miller Band, 1982 (“What Goes

A R U A I D N A R S E M A J A Around”, p54) 3. Do You Want to Know a Secret – The Beatles, US single 1964 (“What Goes Around,” p54) LAST ISSUE’S MISSING ANSWERS: 4. Honesty – Billy Joel, 1978 (“What Goes Around”, p54) 5. You Know My Name – The Beatles, 1970, flipside of 1. Lucky 13. Let It Be (“What Goes Around”, p54) 2. The 1906 Summer Olympics held in Athens. 6. Fakin’ It – Simon & Garfunkel, 1967 (“What Goes The IOC refers to them as “1906 Intercalated Around”, p54) Games”, as they fell between St Louis (1904) 7. Don’t You Know It’s Magic – Johnny Farnham, 1972 and London (1908). (“What Goes Around”, p54) 62 The Skeptic December 16

Skeptical Groups in Australia

QLD SA Queensland Skeptics Association Inc – Bob Bruce Skeptics SA – Laurie Eddie www.qskeptics.org.au 52B Miller St Unley, SA 5061 Mob: 0419 778 308 [email protected] Tel: (08) 8272 5881 [email protected] Meetings with a guest speaker on the last Monday of the month from February to November at the Redbrick Hotel, 81 Annerley Thinking and Drinking - Skeptics in the Pub Road, South Brisbane. Dinner from 6pm, speaker at 7.30pm. Contact: [email protected] Qskeptics eGroup - www.egroups.com/list/qskeptics www.meetup.com/Thinking-and-Drinking-Skeptics-in-the- Pub/ calendar/10205558 Brisbane Skeptics in the Pub or http://tinyurl.com/loqdrt http://Brisbanesitp.wordpress.com, follow links for Facebook, Meets on the third Friday of every month at The Benjamin on Twitter and email list Franklin pub, 233 Franklin St, . Meets on the first Tuesday of each month from 6:30pm at the Plough Inn, Southbank WA WA Skeptics – Dr Geoffrey Dean Gold Coast Skeptics – Lilian Derrick PO Box 466, Subiaco, WA 6904 PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall, QLD 9726 Tel: (07) 5593 1882 Tel: 08 9341 4538; [email protected] [email protected] Contact Lilian to find out news of more events. Details of all our meetings and speakers are on our website at www.undeceivingourselves.org

TAS NT Hobart Skeptics – Leyon Parker PO Box 84, Battery Point TAS 7004 Darwin Skeptics – Michelle Franklin Tel: 03 6225 3988 BH, 0418 128713 [email protected] PO Box2027 Humpty Doo NT 0836 Tel: 0408 783 145; www.facebook.com/group/darwinskeptics/ Skeptics in the Pub - 2nd Monday each month, [email protected] 6.30pm, Ball & Chain restaurant, Salamanca Place Meetings to be announced - see Facebook page for details Launceston Skeptics – Jin-oh Choi 0408 271 800 [email protected] www. launcestonskeptics.com Launceston: Skeptics in the Pub 1st & 3rd Thursday of each month 5.30pm @ The Royal Oak Hotel Launceston: Skeptical Sunday, 2nd Sunday of each month 2.00pm @ Cube Cafe

NOTE: LISTINGS WELCOME We invite listings for any Skeptical groups based on local and regional areas. Email us at editor@skeptics. com.au with details of your organisation’s name, contact details and any regular functions, eg Skeptics in the Pub, with time, day of the month, location etc. Because this is a quarterly journal and most groups meet monthly, it is unlikely we will be able to include references to specific speakers or events. Skeptic_BackCover_DEC16.indd 64 6/12/2016 12:10 pm