. . SOCIETY

Vol. 36, No 3. September 2016

Risks & Stats What Skeptics need to know

+Dragons, Brains & Energy

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_Cover_SEP16.indd 1 30/08/2016 1:22 pm The Skeptic September 16

Skeptical Groups in NSW VIC Inc – Eran Segev Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc – Chris Guest www.skeptics.com.au GPO Box 5166, VIC 3001 PO Box 20, Beecroft, NSW 2119 Tel: 1 800 666 996 [email protected] Tel: 02 8094 1894; Mob: 0432 713 195; Fax: (02) 8088 4735 Skeptics’ Café – Third Monday of every month, with guest [email protected] speaker. La Notte, 140 Lygon St. Meal from 6pm, speaker at 8pm – 6pm first Thursday of each sharp. More details on our web site www.skeptics.com.au/vic month at the Crown Hotel, cnr Goulburn and Elizabeth Streets in the city (meeting upstairs) Dinner meetings are held on a regular basis. Ballarat Skeptics Currently being re-activated. See Facebook for details

Hunter Skeptics – John Turner Tel: (02) 4959 6286 [email protected] Citizens for Science - Mornington Peninsula (formerly Peninsula Skeptics, aka The Celestial Teapot) Meetings are held at the Club Macquarie, Lake Road, Argenton Contact: Graeme Hanigan 0438 359 600 on the second Thursday of each month, excepting January, http://www.meetup.com/Citizens-for-Science/ commencing 7.00pm, with a guest speaker or open discussion www.facebook.com/groups/peninsula.skeptics/ on a given topic. Visitors welcome. Further information from the secretary at: [email protected] Great Ocean Road Skeptics (Geelong) Contact: Carolyn Coulson [email protected] ACT https://www.facebook.com/groups/147741491945391/ Canberra Skeptics – Lauren Kelly PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 Meets on the last Wednesday of each month from 6pm, City http://www.canberraskeptics.org.au Tel: 0410 382 306 Quarter, Cunningham Pier East Geelong [email protected] (general inquiries), The Surfcoast Summer Skepticamp is run annually by members [email protected] (Canberra Skeptics in the Pub). A free monthly talk, open to the public - check website for details Melbourne Eastern Hills Skeptics in the Pub Skeptics in the Pub gather at 1pm on the third Sunday of each Contact: Andrew Rawlings [email protected] month at King O’Malleys Pub in Civic. For up-to-date details: http://mehsitp.codenix.org www.meetup.com/ SocialSkepticsCanberra/ https://www.facebook.com/pages/Melbourne-Eastern-Hills Skeptics-in-the-Pub/19241290737690?ref=ts Meets second Monday of each month at The Knox Club, Wantirna South.

Melbourne Skeptics in the Pub http://www.melbourneskeptics.com.au/skeptics-in-the-pub/ Meets on the fourth Monday of every month from 6 pm at the Mt View Hotel in Richmond.

Mordi Skeptics in the Pub http://www.meetup.com/Mordi-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/ Meets at 7.30pm on the first Tuesday of each month at the Mordialloc Sporting Club. ($4 to cover website costs)

For details on Skeptical groups in other states and territories, see inside back cover Volume 36 • No 3 September 16 Contents

REPORTS Challenge - Free energy 10 14 Ian Bryce

Challenge - the Ethics 14 Ian Bryce 23 FEATURES Fear of Facts 16 Tim Harding Easing Stats Phobia 20 Cassandra Perryman

Numbers Game 23 Bob Carroll 20 Can Do Better 26 16 34 ARTICLES 28 The Neverending Story 28 Anthony Garrett 39 Half a Mind 34 Brian Dunning

Bad Breath 39 Brett I. Cohen

The Devil’s Work 42 Shelley Stocken 42 Prison Escapades 44 Tim Mendham and Lt E.H. Jones 44

REGULARS Editorial 4 Around the Traps 5 Them! 9 Puzzles page 38 50 The logical place 41 What goes around 48 Book reviews 50 Forum 56 Letters 62 48 EDITORIAL

Free energy, hard numbers, no risk here are a number of articles in prevails and the inventors are either Tthis issue that complement each chastened and shuffle off to refine their other very well. theories or they ignore the scientific They are all about how or whether evidence and shuffle off to refine their people understand the world around theories. ISSN 0726-9897 them, their appreciation of the laws of And then there is risk, which is the Quarterly Journal of physics and mathematics, and how they application of statistics into the real Australian Skeptics Inc assess the implications of what they see world, where possibilities are weighed (ABN 90 613 095 379) or think they see. against probabilities and decisions made Editor Firstly, Ian Bryce reports on a recent as to likely outcomes. Now, we can’t all Tim Mendham claim for our $100,000 challenge. This be actuaries who do this sort of thing was for the development of a so-called for a living, and many a keen person Editorial Board free energy machine. This technology may believe that the statistics they find Steve Roberts goes under a number of names, but lead to a particular point, and develop Eran Segev they all attempt to defeat some pretty their life choices from there. Then again, Martin Hadley basic notions in physics – the first and there are those who believe that the Barry Williams second laws of thermodynamics by statistics they find support an existing Design Services which energy is conserved and entropy predisposition. The latter will hear no Nova Consulting P/L increases. Inventors of free energy cavilling with their assessment of the machines think they can overcome numbers and the apparent correlations All correspondence to: these restrictions in a manner not they create – they know their beliefs are Australian Skeptics Inc previously thought of. How they think true and find (manipulate, misrepresent, PO Box 20 that way is a mystery and a fascination make up) the stats to prove it. Anti- Beecroft NSW 2119 to those who take a scientific approach. vaccinationists are the classic example of Australia An article by Antony Garrett looks this in the Skeptical world. Contact details at the nature and history of perpetual The ‘Them’ article in this issue Tel: +61 (0)2 8094 1894 motion machines, putting Ian’s looks at a website that takes these false Mob: +61 (0)432 713 195 challenge pieces in a context of a long correlations to extreme and ridiculous Fax: +61 (0)2 8088 4735 history of attempts to create machines end results. that will output more energy than you Now, you might see a common [email protected] put in. thread in all of this. And it is people. www.skeptics.com.au Then we have several articles that People are not machines and they are look at the wonderful but often arcane not calculators, and very few of them are The Skeptic is published four times world of mathematics. Specifically, actuaries. They are faulted, emotional, per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. Cassandra Perryman, Bob Carroll and impressionable, inconsistent, illogical, Views and opinions expressed in articles Harriet Hall look at the use and abuse irrational, and frustrating, and long may and letters in The Skeptic are those of of statistics. (Cassandra’s article is the they be so. Life, and particularly human the authors, and are not necessarily first of a series on that topic, by the life, would be unbearably dull if it were those of Australian Skeptics Inc. way.) Understanding the significance not for our variability and unreliability. Articles may be reprinted with of raw numbers and statistics – the But that also means they are not permission and with due acknowledge- bread and butter of science – is another the best people to appreciate that ment to The Skeptic. of those areas where amateurs can feel understanding physics is a difficult All effort is made to ensure correct they have it over the professionals. and often non-intuitive process, that acknowledgement of all contributions. And like perpetual energy machines, assessing risk is a risky business, that We are happy to update credit when so on a very first very cursory glance the correlation does not equal causation, informed. theories produced may seem intriguing and that there are lies, damned lies, and and plausible to the lay public (who are statistics. We just have to learn to cope Editorial submission deadline often as impressed by the sincerity of with these limitations. . for the next issue: proponents as much as the ‘evidence’ October 30, 2016 they produce). But pretty quickly sense - Tim Mendham, editor 4 NEWS The Skeptic September 16

the 32n d AUSTRALIAN Around traps ... SKEPTICS NATIONAL Nominate an anti-hero CONVENTION November 25-27 AUSTRALIA: The Australian Medicine, School of Science and MELBOURNE Skeptics’ Bent Spoon award is one of the Health, Western Sydney University least sought-after credits in the Skeptical • One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts Tickets now available world … or any world, for that matter. • Dr Thomas Goyer and Geoff Jowett convention.skeptics.com.au It has been awarded every year since of the Advanced Medical Institute 1982* and it recognises the perpetrator which became the Medical Weightloss SPEAKERS INCLUDE of the most preposterous piece of Institute which turned into the or pseudoscientific piffle. Australian Men’s Hormone Clinic. Edzard Ernst, Lawrence Luminaries who have been past We would love to hear of any other Krauss, Harriet Hall, winners include Paleo , Larry noteworthy candidates. If you would like Michael Marshall, Marshall (head of CSIRO), RMIT, the to put someone forward for this non- , Mel Thomson, pharmacists of Australia, and a prestigious award, then go to the Bent Nicholas Johnsonww dentist. Spoon page (skeptics.com. Nominations come au/features/bent-spoon) from the public, and this for more info on how year we have received to enter, details on the to court in a SLAP suit. Australian nominations for: current nominees and Skeptics organised a public fund-raising • University of a list of past winners. exercise to cover his legal expenses. He Wollongong / The winner of the won the case. Wilyman PhD 2016 Bent Spoon will be Dr Harvey was a member of the • Dr Maryanne Demasi and the ABC- announced at the National Convention expert group that drafted the World TV Catalyst program on wi-fi ‘risks’ in Melbourne, November 25-27. Health Organisation “Ethical Criteria • Professors Alan Bensoussan, Gregory Nominations close in early November. for Medicinal Drug Promotion” Kolt and Barney Glover at the * With the exception of 1988, the and also the Commonwealth National Institute of Complementary year when nothing happened. Pharmaceutical Health and Rational Use of Medicines (PHARM) Committee that formulated the Quality Use of Medicines (QUM) pillar of ANZAAS medal to Ken Harvey Australian medicines policy. He has recently served on the AUS & NZ: The Australian and science based medicines and a critic Therapeutic Goods Administration New Zealand Association for the of pharmaceutical marketing. He has (TGA) Transparency Review Panel, Advancement of Science has awarded Dr been described by The Age newspaper the Working Group on Promotion Ken Harvey the 2016 ANZAAS Medal. as an “anti- crusader”, and by of Therapeutic Products, Medicines Dr Harvey received the award for Choice as a “serial complainer” – the Australia Code Review Panel and “contribution to science which go latter made him a life member for the Australian government’s Natural beyond normal professional activities”. services to the consumer movement in Therapy Review Advisory Committee. The medal is awarded annually for 2012. Australian Skeptics awarded him At the award ceremony, held as part services for the advancement of science the Thornett Award for the Promotion of National Science Week in August, or administration and organisation of of Reason in 2011, and made him a life Dr Harvey encouraged those present scientific activities, or the teaching of member in 2013. to critically appraise the science throughout Australia and New Among the wide range of evidence and flood Zealand and in contributions to science his campaign activities, the regulators which lie beyond normal professional he is particularly well with complaints activities. Previous winners of the known in Skeptical about misleading medal include Sir Gus Nossal, Sir Mark circles for his fight and deceptive Oliphant and Harry Messel. against the SensaSlim promotion, as Dr Harvey is one of Australia’s ‘diet’ product, where well as advocating leading campaigners against non- the company took him for policy change. 5 23 NEWS

Chiro Board responds to Skeptics’ concerns

AUSTRALIA: Following the over chiropractic practice and the revelation of chiropractor Ian management of the profession. Rossborough’s ‘cracking’ of an infant’s In 2013 we awarded our Bent spine on YouTube*, Australian Skeptics Spoon award to both the Chiropractic and many members of the public and Board of Australia (CBA) and the professionals expressed their outrage. Chiropractors’ Association of Australia The Australian Health Practitioner (CAA) for blatantly ignoring the that the CBA’s heavy hand falls only on Regulation Agency (AHPRA) and the restrictions set by both groups on what those who are publically exposed and Chiropractic Board of Australia (CBA) the members of the profession could who bring public outrage and shame took action and limited Rossborough’s promote in terms of non-evidence upon the profession? Is Rossborough areas of activity [http://tinyurl.com/ based treatments. being restricted because of what he was jrombhj]. This was not just a case of focusing doing, or because he was caught? But that wasn’t enough. There are on rogue elements within the industry If the latter, then we are assured still many chiropractors promoting - members of the CAA’s own Board that there are many others within the and presumably performing the same were ignoring their organisation’s own chiropractic profession who will be practices as Rossborough (pictured instructions. similarly ‘outed’ for dangerous practices, above), but with little if any reprimand. More recently, we have seen because we believe that these dangerous Australian Skeptics Inc therefore evidence of widespread use of disputed, practices are far more widespread than wrote to AHPRA and CBA to express debunked and totally unsubstantiated the CBA might be aware of or fear. our concern of this lack of consistency ‘evidence’ for a range of chiropractic With these concerns in mind, we are in regulating chiropractors who act practices and methodologies. These copying AHPRA and the ACCC on outside of the rules and regulations of include many instances where this letter. the industry. chiropractors are claiming treatment for We look forward to your response. Following is that correspondence. a wide range of conditions that would Eran Segev Note that we initially wrote to have nothing to do with the spine and/ President, Australian Skeptics Inc AHPRA and the CBA on June 17, or nervous system, resort to the totally 2016. Their response was dated June 28 unproven concept of ‘subluxation’, CBA response to Australian Skeptics: but, based on the postmark, not posted and chiropractors blatantly ignoring Thank you for your correspondence until August 16. the rulings of the CBA on use of date 17 June in relation to the recent non-evidence based claims in their action taken by the Chiropractic Australian Skeptics Inc letter: advertising and promotion. Board of Australia (the Board). I Dear Dr Minter, Now we have the case of chiropractor note the concerns you have identified Australian Skeptics, along with many Ian Rossborough who has achieved about practitioners who may be other individuals and organisations, recent notoriety for a video posted performing unproven and potentially has for a long time had grave concern on YouTube where he cracks the unsafe procedures on your children spine of a four-day-old premature and infants, and using non-evidence baby. Rossborough has been rightly based claims in their advertising and sanctioned for his actions, and promotion. limitations imposed upon his activities. The public are entitled to receive SKEPTICS Australian Skeptics applaud this action. safe, ethical and competent care from NEWSLETTER But the situation seems to be that chiropractors. The Board regulates Rossborough’s major failing was in individual chiropractors and sets Australian Skeptics publishes posting a video of his performing the standards they must meet. The a fortnightly newsletter, with ‘treatments’, the same treatments that requirements for chiropractors to information on news, events many other chiropractors also perform. provide care to the public that is and items of interest. These others possibly number in the evidence-based is a key component of To subscribe, go to hundreds, and are claiming (at the the professional standards, codes and www.skeptics.com.au least) if not performing treatments guidelines to which the Board expects on neonates and infants that are both practitioners to adhere. and enter your details at unnecessary and dangerous. Practitioners are expected to practise the bottom of the page – We ask whether the CBA will be safely and within the limits of their just name and email. issuing restrictions and limitations on competency, training and expertise. all of these as well, or are we to infer AHPRA and the Board have a 6 The Skeptic September 16

number of investigations underway in relation to practitioners making claims Simon Floreani about the benefits from, or potentially performing, unproven and potentially embroiled in fake unsafe procedures. While we cannot gynaecologist case discuss individual matters to protect the integrity of the processes underway, Simon Floreani, anti-vaccine the National Public Register is updated chiropractor and former president with details of action taken by the Board of the Chiropractors’ Association of to protect the public. [The Register is Australia, has been named in court available at http://tinyurl.com/gnmlgoh.] for referring one of his patients to a The Board considers risk to the public “fake gynaecologist”. of being a medical practitioner. each time it receives a notification. In The patient was one of several Floreani and Barham-Floreani the specific case you have highlighted, who were allegedly sexually have a long history of anti- the action taken by the Board reflects assaulted by the self-professed IVF vaccination and other non-evidence- the action it believed was necessary specialist, Raffaele Di Paolo. based activism. They are regular to protect the public with respect to Floreani (pictured above, right, presenters and attendees at the this individual practitioner, based on with partner Jennifer Barham- annual California Jam chiropractic evidence about the way this individual Floreani beside him, and anti- event in the US, appearing with practises. The Board will continue vaccinationist Andrew Wakefield, other anti-vaccination activists such to act on individual cases where it is centre) was treating the woman as Wakefield and Sherri Tenpenny. appropriate to do so in the interests of for infertility despite this being In July 2014, Floreani and three public protection. outside of a chiropractor’s area of other chiropractors at his Vitality Further information about the competence, and in breach of the business were cautioned for having notifications process or action may be Chiropractic Board of Australia’s anti-vaccination paraphernalia in the taken by the Board can be located on Code of Conduct and several Melbourne business’s waiting room. the AHPRA website [ahrpa.gov.au], warnings from the Board. In March 2016, it was revealed including information about how a After Floreani had failed to that Floreani had sneaked into a notification can be made. help the woman fall pregnant Melbourne hospital in 2000 to treat Thank you for raising this matter by performing chiropractic a patient with a severe spinal injury. with me. “adjustments” on her, he referred Floreani told the hospital that he was Dr Wayne Minter AM her to di Paolo, a homeopath the patient’s snowboard coach. Chair, Chiropractic Board of Australia who posed as a fertility expert. Floreani’s Facebook profile According to a report in The Age still features several videos in *The original Youtube clip is still newspaper, Di Paolo supposedly which he claims to treat colic and available online but with a children’s song earned more than $342,000 other conditions in babies. These overlaid so the original audio is unclear. between 2006 to 2015 offering conditions were cited by the CBA as Another copy of the clip can be found at fertility treatment under the guise breaches of advertising guidelines. youtube.com/watch?v=w0Vd-faWorw

Does chiro Jennifer Barham-Floreani support death threats?

In a move that would shock bullies.” everyone, even those accustomed Balham-Floresni is the author of to the most outrageous claims by Well Adjusted Babies and, along with alt med practitioners, chiropractor her husband Simon Floreani, is or Jennifer Barham-Floreani was a supporter of the Australian apparently endorses death threats to (anti)Vaccination Network. critics from her supporters. She has had several public On August 16, 2016, Barham- warnings from the CBA. Floreani posted a message on Further information on Barham- Instagram that says “Thank you … Floreani and her message can be [for] the compelling offers to take found on Reasonable Hank’s blog out some of my tiresome political http://tinyurl.com/jn8wnx2. 7 23 NEWS

Jack the Ripper’s Australian connection Lawson, a millionaire Australian rancher. But he was then jailed for nine months for fraud. UK: The Sunday Express reports that, Derbyshire-born Deeming Deeming returned to his first according to one historian’s claims, Jack had migrated to Australia with wife, who had been trying to the Ripper fled London to Yorkshire his wife Marie James but was blackmail him while in jail. He after the Whitechapel murders and constantly in trouble with the murdered her and their four continued his killing spree until he was law for fraud. They returned children and buried them in finally hanged in Australia. to England estranged and in cement under the kitchen floor. According to a new book Jack The 1888 he was living alone in He married again and the Ripper – Or Something Worse? the killer Whitechapel when the Ripper couple migrated to Melbourne. was Fred Deeming who laid low in Hull murders began. Deeming strangled his then wife following the East End killings, posing Though a London during a row on Christmas Day as a wealthy rancher. dressmaker that Deeming had been 1891. He was arrested and police found The story has been pieced together courting in 1888 came forward to a collection of knives, swords and axes. by local historian Mike Covell. claim he was the Ripper, Scotland Yard According to Covell, Scotland Yard According to the Express, Covell spent dismissed him as a suspect in 1888 and had taken a belated interest when the years trawling archives in the UK and he left London. bodies of his family were found and Australia, including “long-lost files at the In 1889, he showed up in East they rushed to the trial in Melbourne. Home Office and Scotland Yard”. Yorkshire, calling himself Frederick Deeming was hanged for the murder.

the person who is in the room is there Sleep disorder makes people see ‘demons’ in real life. The figure was no dream demon, but an actual burglar.” UK: When filmmaker Carla them. Surveys put the number of sleep Sleep paralysis experiences are MacKinnon started waking up several paralysis sufferers between about five almost certainly behind the myths of times a week unable to move, with and 60 per cent of the population (an the incubus and succubus, demons the sense that a disturbing presence interestingly broad estimate). thought to have sex with unsuspecting was in the room with her, she didn’t Myths and legends about sleep humans in their sleep. In many cases, call up her local ghost hunter. She got paralysis persist all over the globe, MacKinnon said, the science of sleep researching. from the incubus and succubus (male paralysis explains these myths. The According to the HiDuth.com news and female demons that are thought feeling of suffocating or someone site, that research has led to a short film to have sex with unsusecting humans) pushing down on the chest that often and multiplatform art project exploring of European tales to a pink dolphin- occurs during sleep paralysis may be the phenomenon of sleep paralysis. turned-night time seducer in Brazil. a result of the automatic breathing Sleep paralysis happens when One man told her about his frequent pattern people fall into during sleep. people become conscious while their sleep paralysis episodes, during which When they become conscious while muscles remain in the ultra-relaxed he’d experience extremely realistic still in this breathing pattern, people state that prevents them from acting hallucinations of a young child, skipping may try to bring their breathing under out their dreams. The experience can around the bed and singing nursery voluntary control, leading to the feeling be quite terrifying, with many people rhymes. Sometimes, the child would of suffocating. hallucinating a malevolent presence sit on his pillow and talk to him. Add to that the hallucinations that nearby, or even an attacker suffocating One night, the tot asked the man a seem to seep in from the dream world, personal question. When he refused to and it’s no surprise that interpretations answer, the child transformed into a lend themselves to demons, ghosts or “horrendous demon,” MacKinnon said. even alien abduction, MacKinnon said. For another man, who had the sleep HiDuth.com, by the way, is a disorder narcolepsy (which can make “modern gateway to paranormal and sleep paralysis more common), his sleep spiritual activity … A collection of paralysis episodes typically included stories that focus on what seems to hallucinations that someone else was in belong to a different world, far from the his house or his room. But on one night, visible one, from what we trust to be he awoke, “realising that he is in sleep real.” Its catchphrase is “Can you handle paralysis, and his eyes are open, but the hidden truth?” . THEM The Skeptic September 16 Readers’ indigestible Tim Mendham looks at those ‘other’ websites, where skepticism is a dirty word ... sometimes.

his issue, we continue our review of websites of a decidedly skeptical or, Tmore likely, unskeptical nature. Ok, this time, it’s a skeptical one that makes fun of all of those claims based on perceptions of statistics that take rationalisation into uncharted waters ... deep water.

correlations and to think about data. Spurious Empirical research is interesting, and I love to wonder about how variables work together. The charts on this site correlations aren’t meant to imply causation nor are they meant to create a distrust As with everything paranormal, shop, and her eyesight suddenly came for research or even correlative data. there are a lot of claims out there that back to her. She gave credit to the Rather, I hope this project fosters are just so unfounded in reality that curative power of prayer, whereas interest in statistics and numerical they are either incredibly amusing or some wit near her gave credit to the research.” incredibly frustrating. curative power of garden furniture. He admits that he is not a maths And there are always websites to So it is refreshing to find a or statistics researcher “but I do have match and promote those claims. website that absolutely takes the a love for science and discovery and A lot of them have the most ultimate mickey out of these forced that’s all anyone should need”. abstruse justification for their correlations. Some of the graphs are more claims – a lot of conspiracies, a Spurious Correlations (http:// interesting than others, and some lot of “scientists baffled”, a lot of tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations) use data that’s a bit dated, but Vigen secret knowledge revealed, a lot of is exactly what it says – 30,000 gives sources for them and works out everything you can think of that graphs that compare two different the level of correlation in a manner could feasibly pass for evidence in the sets of statistics of apparently he describes as “mathematically mind of believers. totally disparate conditions over a wrong”: in some cases close, in Among that evidence you often period time, and yet show amazing others way off. But that’s one for the find coincidences and ‘that-can’t-be- positive or negative correlations. For mathematicians. an-accident’ correlations. One of the example, US spending on science, Apart from that, the graphs speak issues you try and get across to people space and technology versus suicides for themselves. Enjoy all 30,000! . is that, like certain other material, by hanging, coincidences happen. There’s nothing strangulation and significant in them; they’re just suffocation match coincidences. each other almost Because ‘A’ happens at the same point for point. time as ‘B’, that doesn’t mean one That just can’t be caused the other; correlation is not coincidence! causation. Tyler Vigen, the Your author can remember one founder of the site, incidence of that sort of belief where says that Spurious a woman who had been blind for Correlations was much of her life prayed to God to “a project I put cure her. Not long after, she was together as a fun walking through a garden furniture way to look at

9 REPORT Challenge 1

Generating Ian Bryce reports on another Australian Skeptics challenge – an over-parity generator

laims of free energy are making and patents. He raised $0. Over-reachCa resurgence, due perhaps to the Discussions on a test method were increasing cost of power, and the severe commenced. environmental damage for burning fossil fuels. And yet almost everyone trusts VISIT AND DEMONSTRATION the established laws of thermodynamics, Claridge invited us to view the device which state that energy cannot be created at a house in Melbourne. Four Skeptics or destroyed, but can only change form. attended on January 11, 2015: Australian Skeptics Inc (ASI) has a • Ian Bryce, national challenge standing offer of a $100,000 prize for coordinator for ASI, retired engineer any claim which effectively demonstrates • Charles Tivendale, co-challenge a paranormal or pseudoscientific coordinator for Australian Skeptics phenomenon. (Victorian Branch) Inc (ASVBI), This is the third major free energy retired scientist scheme I have reported on. The first • Peter Hogan, ASVBI was Lutec, where John Christie of • Frank Burden, ASVBI, retired Queensland challenged ASI for our prize scientist. with his claimed over-unity generator1. Also closely involved were Mal The second was E-CAT, where Italy’s Vickers, co challenge coordinator for Andrea Rossi attempted to sell franchises ASVBI, and Chris Guest, president of Figure 1: Front view - motor, pulleys, and generator in Australia for his cold fusion heat ASVBI. source, and a NSW-based aspiring agent A first step was for all parties to He explained that his Version 1 had approached Dick Smith for support2. sign an agreement: the Australian used five car batteries, and ran self- During 2014, we received Skeptics $100,000 Prize - Application sustained, although he never attached correspondence from Ian Claridge of for Preliminary Test. This named the an external load. The batteries had Melbourne, claiming the prize money for claim as a self-sustaining over-parity- deteriorated, so this day’s Version 2 had an over-parity generator he had built. He generator. The agreement allowed 10 motorcycle batteries, which he had sent photographs, a description, and a for an examination, demonstration, expected to perform similarly. link to a video3 in which he claimed his and discussion, leading towards a He would like to mass produce the device could produce 94 kilowatts – an preliminary test. generators for decentralised power. An enormous amount for a machine the size (There are two equivalent operator could use 10 machines for their of a bar fridge. descriptions for the claim used in this own power, and another 10 producing The key to his machine was (like article – over-parity and free energy – power to sell. many such claims) an electric motor and either of which would win the prize if As background, his grandfather and generator, configured to feed into each proven. Similar terms are over-unity and uncle were engineers, but he was self- other and to produce excess electrical perpetual motion.) taught. power, which could be used for an Claridge had not made any money external application. from his invention yet; in fact, he had INSPECTION The claimant had set up a crowd invested $7000 of his own. We were Claridge’s machine was an enlarged funding page with Indiegogo4, a website free to publish what we saw that day, version of the one in photographs he had that allows members of the public to as he had already disclosed details on previously sent. There was a frame made contribute to a development, product or Indiegogo. He had a provisional patent of particle board, firmly screwed together. service, sometimes for equity, sometimes application, which would expire in The frame supported many components, as a donation. Claridge was asking for three months, and then would cost him which were grouped, making it easy $20,000 in order to finance development much money to pursue further. to follow. Wires ran between the 10 The Skeptic September 16

components, attached by spade clips and bolted terminals. When asked how it worked, Claridge happily launched into a monologue involving numbers of amps, volts, kilowatts, torque ratios, rpm, newton- meters, etc. We asked for a step backwards for a more general overview. Basically, the motor consumed 2kW of electrical power while the generator put out 5kW. He knew the system was capable of 8.5kW excess power. When asked about the law of conservation of energy, he replied that he had heard of it, but had more faith in Figure 2: Side view - feedback circuit, one wire his own calculations. He warned us not to completely trust multimeters, because they sometimes gave him readings he doubted. He allowed us to photograph and sketch at will. Figures 1 and 2 show some views. He did not provide a detailed schematic, so I prepared a sketch, later rendered by computer (Figure 3). CONFIGURATION Inspection of the machine together with Claridge’s descriptions, acquainted us with its intended function. • Firstly the battery bank (right, Fig 1) Figure 1: Front view - motor, pulleys, and generator consisted of ten 12V sealed lead acid batteries, connected in a 5x2 array for a nominal 60 volt. • The next component was the brushless motor (top, Fig 1). This was a common commercial unit, 1.5kW, with an integral controller5. As the rotor (containing permanent magnets) Figure 3: Schematic diagram rotates, field effect transistors (FETs) in the controller switch the DC input than the motor which, he explained, rectifier (bottom, Fig 2), converting between the stationary coils. The unit was in accordance with their expected the AC to DC (connections unclear). also comes with a hand-held speed power levels. • This direct current was fed via a single control on a cable. • Next was a home-built box (right, Fig red wire to a bank of six high-power • A vee belt drive with a speed 2). This is where loads such as kettles resistors, each 13 ohms, in parallel increase of 2:1 coupled the motor can be connected to use the several (left, Fig 2). Their output was fed to a generator. This is odd, because kilowatts of power claimed to be back to the positive terminal of the (as I later found) his chosen motor created. No load was connected this battery bank. Claridge said this is to contained a reduction gearbox, largely time. drop the voltage down to 60 volt to cancelling the speed change but leaving • The box also initiated feedback to recharge the battery, thus closing the two unnecessary components in the charge the battery bank. It contained loop. Odd, as the resistors were sized chain, which would waste energy. a 2:1 toroidal transformer, which to dissipate 1000 watts or so, power • The generator (bottom, igF 1) was also he says he wound himself, to which (one would think) could be a commercial unit, rated at 15kW, provide 120V AC. (Hand winding better employed. also with integral controller. Its output transformers is difficult and skilled • Even more odd was the fact that there was a regulated 240V AC. Oddly, the work.) was no return wire for the battery generator was physically much larger • This power was fed by two wires to a charging current. I checked that the 11 REPORT Challenge 1

Generating appeared to surprise him. protocol. Firstly, Dick Smith espouses He then ran it again, but it soon common sense – get the machine Over-reach slowed down (just as if the batteries running while powering a simple load, were exhausted). The total run was disconnect the battery or mains, and Continued... about 60 seconds. watch what happens. No instruments required, no complex calculations. DISCUSSION Brilliant, except no claimant has ever 60V battery negative ran only to the Claridge admitted this was a poor agreed to this test, presumably because motor controller – nowhere else. result this day, but was sure he could when they try it at home, their machine And the motor casing was entirely upgrade the machine for the next soon stops, so they know they will not insulated by the particle board. Thus demonstration. win. I suppose in some cases, Dick’s I knew that it was impossible (unless While he seemed familiar with advice has been successful in resolving there were hidden wires) to charge the measuring voltages, he said he didn’t the issue, but the Skeptics would not battery! always trust multimeters, and there hear from that claimant again. Connections were made by crimped were no points where an ammeter could The same can be said of the spade terminals. The wiring layout be inserted. We asked that in a future self-test we offer to water divining was haphazard, and contained several test, he should tidy up the wiring, for correspondents – they first try it at uninsulated connections hanging in free safety, and provide simple interfaces home under real test conditions, and if space. Clearly they were in danger of between components where electrical they find it doesn’t work, we don’t hear touching one another or metal parts, so parameters could be measured. from them again. There is no Skeptics we adopted a hands-off policy. I queried the single-wire feed test, but likely a public benefit is from the rectifier to the batteries. He achieved, and the case is closed. DEMONSTRATION explained that in a car, the alternator For free energy machines where Claridge had been charging the batteries charges the battery through just one the battery cannot be disconnected, in preparation for our visit. He offered wire. I suggested that the car alternator we can offer a self-sustaining test. The a demonstration, which we looked might utilise the metal engine to maximum possible battery capacity forward to. complete the loop. can be estimated and the test timed He firstly explained that it wouldn’t Claridge later sent us photographs accordingly, to guarantee its exhaustion. self sustain today, because it needed (Fig 4) showing he had taken up my Secondly, there is the over-parity 2KW worth of batteries in order to suggestion for a negative wire for the test. This requires the battery or mains generate 5KW of output, and he only return current. I should have asked for a connection to be excised from the had 840 watts worth of batteries. He share of his future profits! device under test, and regarded as power needed to buy more – payday was in. The claimant needs to supply distinct coming up – and the machine would PROTOCOLS FOR FREE ENERGY CLAIMS input and output terminals where then self sustain. We noted that the In his own Million Dollar Challenge voltage and current can be monitored, original version in the video was claimed (MDC), states his and the ratio calculated. to self sustain, and he replied that his policy very simply – to observe the In the current claim, the Skeptics original batteries had been better, but phenomenon under proper observing group put forward these two test had since deteriorated. conditions. At the other extreme, concepts, as shown in Figure 5. Claridge threw some switches and the agreements and protocols often evolve As an aside, there has been online visible pulley system started to turn. This into 20-page documents in legal discussion of the difficulties with mixed was accompanied by constant sound, language. Australian Skeptics’ Richard AC and DC, non-sinusoidal waveforms, from the reduction gears, the vee belt, Saunders has participated in several higher harmonic content, high peak and whining noises from the switch- MDCs, and has drafted extensive to average ratios, and nonlinearity mode controlled motors putting audio guidelines. of electronic instruments (eg in the frequencies into the motor. The sounds Regarding claims of free-energy Lutec challenge). However, in my may be heard in the video3 of his Version machines (or over-unity, over-parity, assessment they are distractions, and a 1. self-sustaining, etc), there is frequently sound knowledge of engineering allows The machine ran for 45 seconds, a complication. The machines usually robust and transparent measurement partly open loop (feedback turned require a battery – often a large battery techniques. off) and partly closed loop (battery- – or a mains connection. This is needed In any case, the sophistication of charging turned on) before he stopped (the claim goes) variously to kick the the applicant should be considered, as it. I showed him that the feedback machine into operation, to regulate its he or she needs to be comfortable with resistors remained completely cold, function, or to absorb some strange the test method. If they are open and thus indicating that they had failed to waveform. transparent, then a simple protocol is recharge the batteries – a fact which There are several approaches to a test appropriate. If there is a possibility of 12 The Skeptic September 16

trickery (eg hidden sources), then a more rigorous protocol and test equipment is advisable. In the present case, we had no doubts about the claimant’s sincerity, and a straightforward approach was best. Several ethical dilemmas arose in connection with the Claridge challenge. Should we try to stop him wasting his money? Or other people’s money? Should we point out obvious problems with his setup? Should we help him improve his grasp of electrical theory? These matters are discussed in the second article on the challenge in this issue of The Skeptic. Figure 4: Return wire added LATER DEVELOPMENTS – A DC-DC CONFIGURATION After the extra batteries failed to produce over-parity, Claridge expressed a need for stronger magnets. It seems he was unable to source them for this motor. (Being brushless, the magnets were part of the rotor, and hence curved.) So in June 2015, he reported a new setup, this time with two identical DC machines using brushes rather than electronics - one as a motor and one as a generator. He was able to provide direct electrical feedback to charge the batteries, thus eliminating the rectifier arrangement. In due course, he confirmed to us that the system had failed to self sustain. However, he then thought that putting stronger magnets in the motor would enable it to overpower the generator, in accordance with the textbook formulas. He sourced new neodymium magnets (five times as strong as the magnets it came with, he believed) and glued then into the stator. A risky business for fingers I would think! The claimant’s enthusiasm did not wane. In June 2015 he emailed us: “The Figure 5: Potential test configurations power I am producing is burning out the wiring. Are you prepared to come see it and building new machines for free or REFERENCES when it’s done? I don’t believe I will fail. cheap energy, which are beyond the 1. “Free Energy? Not from Lutec”, Ian Bryce, I know too much about what I am doing scope of this article. The Skeptic, Vol 21, No 3; “Lutec to Move to be wrong.” In summary, this challenge resulted to Planet X?”, Ian Bryce, The Skeptic, Vol Claridge finally advised us that even in a fascinating process of interaction 25, No 3 – copies available from www. skeptics.com.au/the-magazine/ then, his motor-generator system would with the claimant. We had an inspection, 2. “Going Cold on Cold Fusion”, I. Bryce, The not self sustain. Thus he no longer discussion and demonstration rather Skeptic, Vol 32, No 1 believed in over-parity, and he withdrew than a full test. And thanks to his open- 3. http://tinyurl.com/z9esw9t this particular challenge for our Prize. ness, an interesting experience, and some 4. http://tinyurl.com/z27ra92 He is still (as at August 2016) conceiving insight into free-energy inventors. . 5. http://tinyurl.com/hm9p8ce 13 REPORT Challenge 2 Doing the Right thing Ian Bryce assesses the ethical issues in testing doubtful claims

Test participants We complained to him that the left to right: implied endorsement was incorrect. He Frank Burden, promptly removed it. Ian Claridge He later wrote to us that “the new (claimant), engine will … be a highly marketable Charles and profitable venture. This is why even Tivendale, and though I am certain of the outcome of the Peter Hogan. modifications, I will no longer be seeking (Photo by Ian crowd funding, as the $100,000 challenge Bryce) will be enough capital to patent and begin any business startup capital.” While Claridge’s expressions of certainty were worrying, he occasionally opened the door to doubt: “Either I am right and increasing the magnetic His invention will “save the strength by 3 times will create a self egotiations for a test for the mother earth” and “end world hunger sustaining motion or it will not. I NSkeptics’ $100,000 challenge, such completely”. honestly think you should be prepared to as Ian Claridge’s free energy machine We advised him to hold off crowd- write out a cheque.” (see article this issue), often raise some funding until he had passed a real test. The swing between certainty and interesting concerns regarding the Indiegogo terms and conditions state doubt was frequently visible. mindset of the claimant, and how that “Users must comply with all applicable The Skeptics discussed their concern may be shaped by the very discussions laws and regulations.” It is unclear if this about his escalating expenditure from with the testing authority. The challenge includes the laws of physics. I suggested his limited resources, but it was evident described in this issue was no exception. that investors’ money could be wasted, he would continue on that path with or The first problem arose early, when and the claimant replied: “It’s only your without our advice. negotiating a testing schedule, because opinion it won’t work. I have done my the Skeptics mentioned that they had a own testing.” EXCUSES FOR FAILURE separate challenge also in progress. The Yet after the Skeptics’ visit, he Recall that Claridge sent us a video claimant immediately assumed that this immediately posted on Indiegogo: and technical documentation on his was another over-parity machine, and “That’s when I discovered the Skeptics first model, claiming it would produce threatened legal action if the person Society. Who’s business it was to prove 45 kilowatts of electrical power. In involved had ripped off his design. It was that these types of things can’t exist. preparation for our visit, his first actually someone claiming to be a psychic. They wanted to come out and view the model failed to self sustain - he blamed prototype, and prove that it can’t work. deteriorated batteries. CERTAINTY AND DOUBT They are a very respectable group who’s Our demonstration ran for only 60 Claridge was seeking crowd-funding on mandate it is to disprove such things seconds and ran down – he said his 60 Indiegogo1. As with many free energy so I thought they would be perfect. A volts worth of batteries was inadequate, claims, this included financial and third independent respected group who he needed 72V. The next model with environmental benefits: “A green energy have tested it and proven the claims I more batteries failed to self-sustain – it rebate can apply, and [this] is how much had made on what this machine does. needed stronger magnets. money will be saved by purchasers.” Perfect.” Claridge wrote: “I understand that 14 The Skeptic September 16

you think that going any further on is listed at each condition, and is a unity are impossible. Even self-sustaining this project is foolish. But I think the maximum of 81.9 per cent, where the devices and perpetual motion are but the possible benefits if it can be made torque is only 44Nm and the speed is dreams. Doing to work is worth the effort. So I am only 414 rpm. No over-parity there! getting my machine to work as it is TO HELP OR NOT TO HELP – designed. It is designed to be a 10kw THE THEORY ON MAGNETS THAT IS OUR DILEMMA excess or over parity machine… I am Problems with Claridge’s basic electrical Thus, at this stage, Claridge believed Right thing replacing the ferrite magnets with Rare knowledge were revealed several times, he had a coherent grasp of both motor Earth magnets, exactly the same in such as with his missing return wire, specifications and electrical theory. size and shape, but they will be 500- discussed in the article on the challenge However, I had found major errors in 700 per cent more powerful than the in this issue. His rapid fixing of the both, partly due to deficiencies in online original.” problem was a good sign, and led the documentation. I had phoned him and Skeptics to consider helping him with asked leading questions pointing to these MOTOR SPECIFICATIONS the theoretical principles. issues, with no further response. Claridge seemed familiar with the Secondly, The Skeptics parties specifications for his motor and his frequent debated what to do: generator, and quoted them in support correspondence “ The ball was in the • We stop dealing with of over-unity (before any talk of showed that he claimant’s court, and him. No test, but he stronger magnets). I tracked down the thought using continues to promote it specification posted by the Australian stronger magnets we would test him and seek funding. Bad on distributor2, and then phoned him a few would work miracles when he was ready. all counts. days after our visit. – his current setup ” • We continue along the The specifications say: produces 1.2kW of path to testing, and if he • Motor Power: 1500W output for 2.0kW of input; therefore, fails, then we have an article for our • Motor Voltage: 60V using five times stronger magnets must journal and websites, and the truth • Rated Current: 32A produce 6.0kW of output. He backed is out there for potential investors to • Rated Speed: 600-700 RPM this up by sending me info from a find. • Rated Torque: 60Nm textbook on an Electrical Engineering • We try to educate him to show why it • Locked rotor current: 90A 301 course, which gave the basic is impossible. Then there will probably The rated electrical input power is formulas for an ideal DC motor (losses be no test. We can possibly write up stated as 1.5kW. neglected): what we have. As for output mechanical power, Torque = current x a constant for the Could we both assist in his the word “rated” implies one condition machine understanding and then test his device? where the speed of 700rpm and the The machine constant includes We decided this was a possible conflict of torque 60Nm apply simultaneously. the magnetic field – hence his claim interest, and one would probably prevent Now, the supplier’s website fails to (correct) that stronger magnets must the other. combine these two figures, but if this is increase the torque. In the event, as a compromise, done, it gives 4.4kW. I understand this I had a strong urge to reply with a we suggested that he seek out an is what Claridge did, as he mentioned link to a later section which stated: undergraduate student at a university, and a shaft power of 5.9 horsepower, which Voltage = rotational speed x the same run through his ideas. To our knowledge is equivalent. Perhaps this led him to machine constant this did not happen. believe in its over-unity of 3:1. The textbook author failed to connect So Option (b) was pursued. The ball So why does the website imply over- the dots, but I would have added: “This was in the claimant’s court, and we would unity? The problem was that the speed means that although stronger magnets test him whenever he was ready. We asked and torque figures are absolute maxima, can increase torque (for a given battery), him to keep us informed of progress, and and do not apply simultaneously as they will also reduce the speed in inverse he did this well, with frequent emails and implied. The rpm would come from a proportion.” The product of the two – photos. He now understood the benefit of no-load test at maximum voltage, but the output power - will remain constant. a real demonstration before calling on us. the torque would come from a separate Combining the two equations: In summary, we survived many ethical locked-rotor test at maximum current. Torque x rotational speed = voltage x hurdles, we remained on good terms. Not “rated” conditions at all. current, ie Power Out = Power In He proceeded with development, as Further evidence that the motor Adding in the mechanical and described in the main article. . complies with the laws of physics is electrical losses proves: found on the website in the detailed Power Out < Power In REFERENCES performance measurements, over a range This means the efficiency is always 1. http://tinyurl.com/z27ra92 of loads and currents. The efficiency less than 1.0, and over-parity and over- 2. http://tinyurl.com/hm9p8ce 15 FEATURE Risks & Statistics The Fear of Tim Harding investigatesFacts the fallacy of faulty risk assessment

ustralian Skeptics have tackled WHAT IS RISK ASSESSMENT? Amany false beliefs over the Hardly anything we do in life is years, often in co-operation with risk-free. Whenever we travel in a car other organisations. We have had or even walk along a footpath, most some successes – for instance, people are aware that there is a small belief in homeopathy finally seems but finite risk of being injured or to be on the wane. Nevertheless, killed. Yet this risk does not keep us false beliefs about vaccination and away from roads. We intuitively make fluoridation just won’t lie down and an informal risk assessment that the die, despite concerted campaigns level of this risk is acceptable in the by medical practitioners, dentists, circumstances. governments and more recently In more formal terms, ‘risk’ may the media. Why are these beliefs so be defined as the probability or immune to evidence and arguments? likelihood of something bad happening There are several possible multiplied by the resulting cost/benefit explanations for the persistence of ratio if it does happen. Risk analysis these false beliefs. One is denialism is the process of discovering what – the rejection of established facts in risks are associated with a particular favour of personal opinions. Closely hazard, including the mechanisms that related are conspiracy theories, cause the hazard, then estimating the which typically allege that facts likelihood that the hazard will occur have been suppressed or fabricated and the consequences if it does occur. by ‘the powers that be’ in an Risk assessment is the determination attempt by denialists to explain the of the acceptability of risk using discrepancies between their opinions two dimensions of measurement – and the findings of science. A third the likelihood of an adverse event possibility is an error of reasoning occurring, and the severity of the or fallacy known as Faulty Risk consequences if it does occur, as Assessment, which is the topic of illustrated in Figure 1. (This two- this article. dimensional risk assessment is a But before going on to discuss conceptually useful way of ranking vaccination and fluoridation in risks, even if one or both of the terms of this fallacy, I would like to dimensions cannot be measured talk about risk and risk assessment in quantitatively). general. By way of illustration, the likelihood 16 The Skeptic September 16

of something bad happening could be The failure to safeguard the very low, but the consequences could water supply of a major city be unacceptably high – enough to is one of the most serious justify preventative action. Conversely, derelictions of government the likelihood of an event could be responsibility imaginable. higher, but the consequences could be Turning now to the low enough to justify ‘taking the risk’. anti-vaccination and anti- In assessing the consequences, fluoridation movements, consideration needs to be given to they both commit the the size of the population likely to be fallacy of faulty risk affected, and the severity of the impact assessment. They focus on on those affected. This will provide an the very tiny likelihood of adverse indication of the aggregate effect of side effects without considering the an adverse event. For example, ‘high’ major benefits to public health from consequences might include significant vaccination and the fluoridation harm to a small group of affected of public water supplies, and the individuals, or moderate harm to a potentially severe consequences of not Tim Harding investigates the fallacy of faulty risk assessment large number of individuals. vaccinating or fluoridating. A fallacy is committed when a person either focuses on the risks of an VACCINATION RISKS activity and ignores its benefits, and/ The benefits of vaccination far or takes account of one dimension of outweigh its risks for all of the risk assessment and overlooks the other diseases where vaccines are available. dimensions. This includes influenza, pertussis To give a practical example of a (whooping cough), measles and one-dimensional risk assessment, tetanus – not to mention the terrible the desalination plant to augment diseases that vaccination has eradicated Melbourne’s water supply has been from Australia such as smallpox, polio, called a ‘white elephant’ by some diphtheria and tuberculosis. people, because it has not been needed As fellow skeptic Dr Rachael since the last drought broke in March Dunlop puts it: “In many ways, 2010. But this criticism ignores the vaccines are a victim of their own catastrophic consequences that could success, leading us to forget just how have occurred had the drought not debilitating preventable diseases can be broken. In June 2009, Melbourne’s – not seeing kids in calipers or hospital water storages fell to 25.5 per cent of wards full of iron lungs means we capacity, the lowest level since the huge forget just how serious these diseases Thomson Dam began filling in 1984. can be.” This downward trend could have No adult or teenager has ever died continued at that time, and could well or become seriously ill in Australia Top: Figure 1 risk assessment matrix. be repeated during from the side effects of Below: Typical anti-vaccine propaganda by the inevitable next says vaccination, yet large those with an inability to properly assess risk, drought. “ numbers of people preferring instead to resort to fear tactics. No responsible that, in many ways, have died from the government could vaccines are a victim of lack of vaccination. concluded there is no link between afford to ‘take the The notorious vaccines and autism. risk’ of a major their own success.” Wakefield allegation in According to Prof C Raina city of more than 1998 of a link between MacIntyre of UNSW, “Influenza virus four million the measles-mumps- is a serious infection, which causes people running out of water. People rubella (MMR) vaccination and 1500 to 3500 deaths in Australia each in temperate climates can survive autism has been discredited, retracted year. Death occurs from direct viral without electricity or gas, but are and found to be fraudulent. Further effects (such as viral pneumonia) or likely to die of thirst in less than a evidence comes from a recently from complications such as bacterial week without water, not to mention published exhaustive review examining pneumonia and other secondary the hygiene crisis that would occur 12,000 research articles covering bacterial infections. In people with without washing or toilet flushing. eight different vaccines which also underlying coronary artery disease, 17 FEATURE Risks & Statistics

The Fear of Facts Continued...

influenza may also precipitate heart attacks, which flu vaccine may prevent.” In 2010, increased rates of high fever and febrile convulsions were reported in children under five years of age after they were vaccinated with the Fluvax vaccine. This vaccine has not been registered for use in this age group since late 2010 and therefore should not be given to children under five. The available data indicate that there is a very low risk of fever, which Above: Melbourne’s desalination is usually mild and transient, following plant Left: More propaganda, vaccination with the other vaccine this time against fluoridation. brands. Any of these other vaccines can be used in children aged six months and older. Australia was declared measles- complications than free in 2005 by the World Health people who aren’t. With Organization – before we stopped pertussis, for example, being so vigilant about vaccinating severe complications and outbreaks began to reappear. The such as pneumonia impact of vaccine complacency can be and encephalitis (brain observed in the 2015 measles epidemic inflammation) occur in Wales where there were over 800 almost exclusively in cases and one death, and many people the unvaccinated. So presenting were of the age who missed since the majority out on MMR vaccination following of the population is the Wakefield scare. vaccinated, it follows After the link to autism was that most people who disproven, many anti-vaxers shifted get a particular disease the blame to thiomersal, a mercury- will be vaccinated, but critically, they to fluoride and health. Based on this containing component of relatively will suffer fewer complications and review, the NHMRC recommended low toxicity to humans. Small long-term effects than those who are community water fluoridation amounts of thiomersal were used as a completely unprotected. programs as the most effective and preservative in some vaccines, but not socially equitable community measure the MMR vaccine. Thiomersal was FLUORIDATION RISKS for protecting the population from removed from all scheduled childhood Public water fluoridation is the tooth decay. The scientific and medical vaccines in 2000. adjustment of the natural levels of support for the benefits of fluoridation In terms of risk assessment, Dr fluoride in drinking water to a level certainly outweighs the claims of the Dunlop has pointed out that no that helps protect teeth against decay. vocal minority against it. vaccine is 100 per cent effective and In many (but not all) parts of Australia, Fluoridation opponents over vaccines are not an absolute guarantee reticulated drinking water has been the years have claimed that putting against infection. So while it’s still fluoridated since the early 1960s. fluoride in water causes health possible to get the disease you’ve The benefits of fluoridation are well problems, is too expensive and is been vaccinated against, disease documented. In November 2007, the a form of mass medication. Some severity and duration will be reduced. NHMRC completed a review of the conspiracy theorists go as far as to Those who are vaccinated have fewer latest scientific evidence in relation suggest that fluoridation is a plot to 18 The Skeptic September 16

lower children’s IQ. Some may have been misled by false Parkville. Yet, there is no evidence of information, and thus could possibly C Raina MacIntyre (2016) Thinking about getting any adverse health effects from be open to persuasion if the correct the 2016 flu vaccine? Here’s what you need to know. the fluoridation of water at the information is provided. The Conversation, Parkville. recommended levels. The only Others might even be aware of the Mike Morgan (2012) How fluoride in water helps possible risk is from over-dosing correct information, but are assessing prevent tooth decay. The Conversation, water supplies as a result of the risks fallaciously in the ways I have Parkville. automated equipment failure, but described in this article. Their errors Michael Vagg (2013) Fluoride conspiracies + there is inline testing of fluoride levels are not ones of fact, but errors of activism = harm to children. The Conversation, with automated water shutoffs in reasoning. They too might be open to Parkville. the remote event of overdosing. Any persuasion if education about sound Government of Victoria (2014) Victorian Guide overdose would need to be massive to risk assessment is provided. to Regulation. Department of Treasury and have any adverse effect on health. The I hope that analysing the false Finance, Melbourne. probability of such a massive overdose beliefs about vaccination and is extremely low. fluoridation from the perspective of Tooth decay remains a significant the faulty risk assessment fallacy has problem. In Victoria, for instance, provided yet another weapon in the more than 4400 children under skeptical armoury against these false 10, including 197 two-year-olds beliefs. . About the author: and 828 four-year-olds, required Tim Harding BSc general anaesthetic in hospital for works as a regulatory the treatment of dental decay during REFERENCES consultant to state and federal 2009-10. Indeed, 95 per cent of Rachael Dunlop (2015) Six myths about vaccination governments. This work all preventable dental admissions – and why they’re wrong. The Conversation, includes risk assessments. to hospital for children up to nine years old in Victoria are due to dental decay. Children under ten in non-optimally fluoridated areas are twice as likely to require a general anaesthetic for treatment of dental decay as children in optimally fluoridated areas. As fellow skeptic and pain management specialist Dr Michael Vagg has said, “The risks of general anaesthesia for multiple tooth extractions are not to be idly contemplated for children, and far outweigh the virtually non-existent risk from fluoridation.” So in terms of risk assessment, the risks from not fluoridating water supplies are far greater than the risks of fluoridating. IMPLICATIONS FOR SKEPTICAL ACTIVISM Anti-vaxers and anti-fluoridationists who are motivated by denialism and conspiracy theories tend to believe whatever they want to believe, and dogmatically so. Thus evidence and arguments are unlikely to have much influence on them. But not all anti-vaxxers and anti- fluoridationists fall into this category. 19 FEATURE Risks & Statistics Easing STATS hobia Cassandra Perryman kicks off a series of P articles on stats for Skeptics – part 1 on how to understand cause and correlation.

’m sure everyone has that one At the basic level that adage is valid the standard deviation was then 1.00 Itraumatic maths moment. Even (we’ll get in to when it’s not valid at it would indicate that 68% of the those of us who love the subject some later point). When looking at friends you measured rated their liking remember that one problem we just research, though, how could you even of maths tests as between 2.50 and couldn’t get our head around. Perhaps tell if it was correlational or causational 4.50. That’s a very strong indicator that there were tears, perhaps there was research? What methods are used to many of your friends really, really don’t chocolate, or perhaps there was just the test each type of study? Where do you like maths tests. “ignore it until it goes away” tactic. Any look within a study to know if the Alright, with those two definitions method you used, you’re not alone. research was designed as correlational out of the way, let’s go back to The problem is that skepticism or causational? discussing where you look to see if does, in many ways, rely on maths. As research is correlational or causational. skeptics we like to be up to date with SOME DEFINITIONS the most recent research and scientific First, let’s get on to some equal ground. METHOD SECTIONS consensus. That consensus is based When I talk about the mean, that’s The first place to look is in the method on the underlying research, which is akin to the average score of a group. To section of the research. In proper based on the underlying mathematical calculate the mean you add up all the scientific writing, this section follows analysis. Often, though, we trust the scores, then divide by the number of the Introduction and should have consensus without understanding that responses you had. Two scores of 2 plus a heading that reads Methods. All underlying analysis. As skeptics, is that two scores of 5 plus two scores of 8 gives research should have a method section, good enough? a total of 30. Divide by the number of and if it doesn’t you just walk away. I specialised in social science responses (6) and the mean is 5. You can guarantee it is nonsense. mathematics because of this exact issue. A bit more complicated is the When looking at the methods Psychology is rife with poorly conducted standard deviation. It’s an indicator of you’re going to want to see a clear research and the only way I could battle how tightly all the scores are grouped description of the population measured it was to become a form of statistician. around the mean. Within one standard (sample size, gender or sex breakdown, I’ve made it my goal to teach statistics deviation is where 68 per cent of all age, geographic region, etc), and the in a way anyone can understand, and in your scores will sit, 95 per cent will sit measures and materials used. More a way that is transparent regarding the within two standard deviations, and than that, though, you’ll want to look flaws of statistics. That’s what this series 99.7 per cent will be within three (see for any information on design. If the of articles will be about. Statistics. Well, figure opposite). For example, if you design information has key words a user-friendly introduction to statistics measure how much your friends like like “randomly assigned”, “double- at least. taking maths exams on a scale of 1 blind”, or “placebo controlled” you’re We’ll start with the old adage to 10, you might get a mean of 3.50 looking at research with the goal of “correlation does not equal causation”. (they don’t like their maths much). If determining causality. If the design has 20 The Skeptic September 16

a less structured description and words sample of students had the same final if they did significantly worse too. like “relationship between” then you’re scores as the nationwide mean on a Something you might have noticed looking at correlational. test, I would measure my sample and about t-tests is that they can only I should note that sometimes this compare it to the previously established handle two data points, be it two information isn’t clear in the method mean and standard deviation for that groups, two scores, or two time points. section alone. If that’s the case, go test. If my value was significant, then Bigger studies require a bigger test: the back to the last few (usually three) they differed significantly, indicating F test. An F test comprises a series of paragraphs of the introduction and the the results were at least two standard t-tests all bundled together. Well, at additional information will be there as deviations different. least in a very basic way that’s what it is. part of the hypotheses. Our second type is the independent Statistics is never that simple, but if you groups (or samples) t-test. Sometimes just understand that basic underlying RESULTS SECTIONS this type is also called the 2 sample point, then things will make sense. Once you’ve established the goal of the t-test. As the name indicates, you are The F statistic is a product of the research, it’s time to look at the actual testing one group against another group ANOVA family of tests. ANOVA Cassandra Perryman kicks off a series of results section. Although graphs and on a single measure. The concept, stands for “analysis of variance”. I won’t figures are nice, sometimes they are then, is to see whether the two groups get in to the different types of ANOVA, articles on stats for Skeptics – part 1 on how to used to cover up crappy analysis with differ significantly. Using the same just know that it’s a very flexible design. pretty graphics. Don’t get me wrong, previous example, I could look to see The ANOVA is used when you want to understand cause and correlation. figures are very useful for helping you whether this year’s students’ final scores compare more than two groups, time to interpret what is being reported, but differed significantly from last year’s points, or scores. Easy, right? You use they are not to be trusted to replace the students in their final score, presuming a t-test for two, an ANOVA for more actual reporting of findings. I kept the coursework identical. If than two. The gold standard of medical In the results section you are going the scores differed by more than two research, the randomly controlled trial to look for some key notations. If what standard deviations, well, one year did (RCT), is ANOVA. I’m about to describe all looks like significantly better than the other. The reporting of the F statistic looks Greek to you, well, it’s because it is. The third type is the paired t-test. a lot like the t statistic. For example: First we have t. T-tests are not causal With a paired t-test I’m taking the same F(1,54) = 12.67, p < .05 tests within themselves, but they are sample and having them go through You read this the exact same way the underpinning for larger, more the same test or measure twice. You’ll as the t-test results. TheF indicates causal, analyses. The write up for a compare each individual’s first (or pre) that an ANOVA was conducted. This t-test usually looks something like this: score to their second (or post) score. is followed by the degrees of freedom t(36) = 12.67, p < .01 Your mean and standard deviation are in brackets. The F value then is after That initial t denotes that a t-test has then based on the difference between the equal sign and is compared to a been conducted, the number following the two scores, not the raw data itself. pre-determined F critical. And, as the t denotes the degrees of freedom (a Imagine now that I’m only looking at before, the p value is the probability highly complex statistical concept, so students who had failed my course the of that result occuring at random. we’ll just la-la and move on). After the first time (it happens) and decided to If the ANOVA test had more than equal sign is the actual t value, followed retake my class. I could then take their two levels of a group, this F test by the probability value. In order to first attempt scores and their second would be followed up by a series of determine if a value is significant, the attempt scores and see if that group t-tests to determine where any actual results obtained is compared against of students did significantly better the differences are. That’s important to a chart of minimum results needed to second time. I would inadvertently see note. The F statistic only says that be significant (called critical values). If your number is higher than the critical number (note that the t value can be either positive or negative so we use the absolute value), then YAY! You potentially found something. What that actually means will depend on the type of t-test conducted. The first type of t-test is the single sample, or 1 sample, test. The concept is to determine if the mean of your sample is equal to, or significantly different from, a set number. For example, if I wanted to see if my 21 FEATURE Risks & Statistics

but there is a significant difference The initial r denotes a correlation, Easing Stat between scores. I would then follow and the number in brackets is the up and run a series of three t-tests sample size. Following the equals, we Phobia to determine which time(s) of day see a value of -.77, indicating a strong Continued... impacted scores. Specifically, I’d run negative relationship. The p value then one t-test comparing 8 am to 1 pm, says this relationship is significant at one comparing 1 pm to 5 pm, and the .05 level. That’s it really. As the something, somewhere, in your design potentially one comparing 8 am to 5 value of variable one increases, the is significant. With complex designs it pm (there are situations where that value of variable two decreases. The won’t give you any indication of what third comparison is redundant). My relationship of the increase to decrease exactly is significant, or if the effect results find a significant difference can be calculated through another goes the way you want it to. I’ll clarify between 1 pm, and both 8 am and 5 series of formulas to quantify the that with an example. pm, where my 1 pm students score negative relationship. That gets a bit I decide to test what might be significantly worse. I can then look more intense, so we’ll just la-la past contributing to students failing my in to what is occurring at 1 pm to see that too. course. Before the semester starts, what has led to this lowering of scores That’s it. That’s the basics of I randomly allocate my students in and ensure that no more classes are causational versus correlational to three sections (keeping gender scheduled for 1 pm. In a sense, this test research. If you can understand those and age as balanced was causal. Having a basics you are ready to dive in to as possible). Some The numbers tell us class at 1 pm caused reading your first results section. A research has indicated “ students to fail more lot of research will try to add jargon that the time of day there is a cause and frequently. What this and fancy-schmancy words to make it may impact learning, effect, but the reason test doesn’t tell me is sound more erudite but, in the end, the so I put the first section why the causational statistical annotation and methods will at 8 am, the second at why may not be what relationship is always be the same. At a basic level, it’s 1 pm, and the third we think. present. all t, F, and r. . section at 5 pm. The ” That’s a key thing course goes on per to note about causal Note: Part 2 on statistical analysis will usual for the semester, and at the end I research. The numbers tell us there is appear in the next issue of The Skeptic. have students rate my teaching ability. a cause and effect, but the reason why I then conduct an ANOVA to see may not be what we think it is. That is if time of day did impact scores, and the important of controlled conditions About the author: if the view of my teaching ability was and well-constructed research. Dr Cassandra Perryman consistent across all three sections. The whole point of this was has undergraduate degrees (It could, after all, be that I’m not a causation versus correlation. I’ve just in Psychology, and Law, morning person so my teaching ability spent a hell of a long time talking and a PhD in Psychology. was the issue, not the students’ learning about causation, but what about She can be heard on various capacity.) correlation? Well, it’s far simpler. podcasts, such as Science To do this, I run a 3x3 ANOVA Correlations at the basic level are on Top, Smart Enough to to test my results. The 3x3 denotes measured with Pearson’s r. Just like Know, and SkepticZone. there are two variables, as represented with the t-tests, r can measure the by the **x** (time of day, teaching correlation between two items. What ability) and that each variable has three is a correlation? It is the strength of levels (8 am, 1 pm, 5 pm), represented the relationship between two variables. by the number on each side of the Correlations can be positive (as one x. In English, it’s a 3x3 ANOVA. variable increases in score, strength or Anyhow, the results produce two F frequency the other variable increases statistics; one checking to see if there’s as well) or negative (as one variable a difference between the levels of time increases, the other decreases). Pearson’s of day, and one looking to see if there r is measured as a value between -1 and is a difference between the levels of 1, with 0 meaning there is absolutely teaching ability. no correlation, 1 meaning a perfect Let’s say there were no significant positive relationship, and -1 meaning differences across teaching ability a perfect negative relationship. The (which definitely shows this is not a annotation for r looks like this: real study - I’m not a morning person), r(58) = -.77, p < .05 23 FEATURE Risk and statistics The Skeptic September 16 NumbersNumbers GameGame Bob Carroll looks at ‘occult statistics’, where woo meets analysis

ccult statistics are those used Probabilities by William Dembski, in 2007) led for nearly thirty years Oas the handmaiden of occult an academic and follower of by Robert Jahn, Dean of the School theorising, in much the same way ‘’, is said to “provide of Engineering and Applied Science, that philosophy was used by theology a mathematical foundation for claimed that in their experiments where during medieval times, ie to justify the types of statistical inferences human operators tried to use their beliefs in supernatural beings and parapsychologists minds to influence a occult forces. use to identify variety of mechanical, Parapsychologists, astrologers, paranormal “ Proof of the optical, acoustical, theologians, and others who phenomena. In occult: To the occult and fluid devices, seek anomalies to guide them to particular, the book they got results that transpersonal wisdom and insight shows how to deal statistician, there is were not likely due to into the true nature of the universe, with statistical no such thing as a chance and could “only are now able to use computers to do experiments be attributed to the extremely complex statistical analyses whose p-values are spurious correlation.” influence of the human of monumental masses of data. When extremely small operators”. they find a statistically-significant (like those that regularly come up in Legions of parapsychologists, led correlation between or among parapsychology experiments). This by such generals as Gary Schwartz variables, they are extremely impressed work is clearly relevant to Carl Jung’s and Dean Radin (and his love of and consider the discovery to be proof idea of synchronicity. [It] promises to meta-analysis), have also appealed of the occult or the supernatural. To put synchronicity on a solid scientific to statistical anomalies as proof of the occult statistician, there is no such footing.” (Rabi Gupta, personal ESP. Statistician Jessica Utts of the thing as a spurious correlation. correspondence). University of California at Davis gave For example, The Design Inference: Likewise, the Princeton Engineering her imprimatur to US government Eliminating Chance through Small Anomalies Research program (closed studies of ESP and remote viewing. 23 FEATURE Risk and statistics

Numbers game laws alone without the design of a the clustering illusion, the regressive divine being, is impossible. Analogies fallacy, etc. Continued... to a monkey typing up Hamlet by Sometimes the variables being chance, a Boeing 747 assembling correlated are ambiguous or vaguely itself, or to a Mona Lisa being ‘created’ defined, if defined at all, so that by nature, are irrelevant and notably practically anything can count in Many occultists have claimed that without impact on skeptics. support of the occult hypothesis. certain dreams must be clairvoyant and Skeptics are not very impressed by What is a “great” athlete or a cannot be explained by coincidence statistical anomalies generated by those “rebel”? Sometimes the methods of because they defy the laws of in quest of occult forces. Sometimes finding patterns are deceptive and probability. parapsychological colleagues have inappropriate, eg finding hidden It was not long ago that astrologers discovered that statistics were messages in texts. As John Ruscio were claiming that notes, “If you Michel Gauquelin look in a fantastic had found the number of Holy Grail with his places, and count statistics showing anything that you the so-called stumble upon ‘Mars effect’, an as supportive astrobiological claim evidence, you are that when Mars is guaranteed to in certain sectors discover meaning of the sky great where none athletes are born in exists.” (45). numbers indicative Skeptics of a non-chance have noted that correlation. More many times recently, millionaire something seems industrialist, to be statistically photographer, art improbable when, collector and keen in fact, it is not follower of astrology improbable at all. Gunter Sachs Some spurious published Die Akte correlations Astrologie, which are due to uses insurance lack of clarity company data analysed by professors Paranomalists brewing up some numbers... regarding the variables; others are due of statistics at the University of any numbers will do! to incorrect calculation of the odds. Munich to prove astrology is true. Both errors are common occurrences Obviously, this list could go on generated by fraudulent means, eg regarding so-called clairvoyant dreams. forever; it could include the Bible Code the work of Walter J. Levy at Rhine’s Skeptics are unimpressed with and various proofs of the existence of Institute of Parapsychology (Williams, artificially evoked statistical anomalies a god on the grounds of improbability 191, 319). The history of ESP research because such anomalies are expected to that chance could explain the nature of is a paradigm of dishonesty and occur with some frequency given the the universe or some complex aspect of incompetence (Rawcliffe, Randi), vast number of trials that are made. it, such as the genetic code. though it should be mentioned that Correlating just a couple of dozen the two major incidents of fraud variables with one another will PROBABLE IMPROBABILITIES (Levy and that of S.G. Soal), though produce a matrix containing nearly Skeptics are unimpressed with suspected by skeptics, were uncovered 300 correlation coefficients. By arguments that assert improbabilities and reported by true believers. convention, results that occur at a for what has already happened. Skeptics have noted many times while level expected by chance just five per Whatever has already happened is investigating the statistical claims cent of the time are called “statistically obviously not an impossible event. of paranormal researchers that there significant”. We can therefore expect Accurately calculating the odds of are often significant problems with about fifteen spuriously significant either the genetic code or the universe subjective validation, confirmation correlations within every matrix of 300 occurring by ‘chance’, ie by natural bias, optional starting and stopping, (Ruscio, 45). 24 The Skeptic September 16

Each of those spurious correlations Park, Robert L. Voodoo Science: The Road is a temptation to see causal from Foolishness to Fraud (OUP, 2000) connections where there are none Paulos, John Allen. A Mathematician Reads and to engage in post hoc theorising the Newspaper (Anchor Books, 1996). to explain non-existent mysterious Paulos, John Allen. Innumeracy: forces. Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Finally, many of the alleged Consequences (Vintage Books, 1990). statistical anomalies discovered by Rawcliffe, Donovan Hilton. Occult and parapsychologists may be due to Supernatural Phenomena(New York: their equipment and methods. Some Dover Publications, 1988). use machines that they call “random Randi, James. Flim-Flam! (Buffalo, New event generators”. However, “It is not York: Prometheus Books,1982). clear that any of these machines is Seife, Charles. 2010. Proofiness: The Dark truly random. Indeed, it is generally Psychic Functioning: Claims vs. Reality.” Arts of Mathematical Deception. Viking believed that there are no truly . Adult. random machines. It may be that lack Lee, K. L,, J. F. McNeer, C. F. Starmer, Ruscio, John. “The Perils of Post-Hockery,” of randomness only begins to show up P. J. Harris and R. A. Rosati. 1980. Skeptical Inquirer, November/December after many trials.” (Park 2000: 199). Clinical judgment and statistics. Lessons 1998. The data from psi experiments from a simulated randomized trial in Williams, William F. Encyclopedia of should remind us that statistical coronary artery disease. Circulation; (Facts-on-File, 2000). significance does not imply 61;508-515. (When the stats show that importance. Science that claims to nothing is going on, scientists sometimes have identified barely detectable pull out subgroups from the data to causal agents observed near the find correlations. Beware: correlations threshold of sensation, which are between subgroups may be spurious and nevertheless asserted to have been due to chance.) About the author: detected with great accuracy and be McDonald, John.”200% Probability and Dr Bob Carroll is author of great significance, is one of the Beyond: The Compelling Nature of of The Skeptics Dictionary, signs of what Irving Langmuir called Extraordinary Claims in the Absence and an investigator of “pathological science” and Bob Park of Alternative Explanations,” Skeptical controversial beliefs for calls “voodoo science”. Inquirer, January/February, 1998. 50 years. As Ernest Rutherford once said: “If your result needs a statistician then you should design a better experiment.” . * This article is reprinted with permission from the Skeptics Dictionary (www.skepdic.com).

FURTHER READING Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn’t’ So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (New York: The Free Press, 1993). Hansel, C.E.M. ESP and Parapsychology: A Critical Re-evaluation (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1980). Hansel, C.E.M. The Search for Psychic Power: ESP and Parapsychology Revisited (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1989). Huff, Daryl. How to Lie with Statistics (W.W. Norton & Company, 1954). Hyman, Ray. 1996. “The Evidence for 25 FEATURE Risks & Statistics

Harriet Hall looks at Can Do a book on applying to BETTER statistics

tatistics is hard, often residents averaged less than 50 per cent not a measure of how right you are or Scounterintuitive, and burdened correct, medical school faculty averaged how important a difference is. Instead, with esoteric mathematical equations. less than 75 per cent correct, and even think of it as a measure of surprise Statistics classes can be boring and the experts who designed the study [emphasis added]. If you assume your demanding; students might be tempted goofed: one question offered only a medication is ineffective and there is to call it “sadistics.” Good statistics choice of four incorrect definitions. no reason other than luck for the two are essential to good research, but There are plenty of examples of groups to differ, then the smaller the unfortunately many scientists and even people deliberately lying with statistics, p value, the more surprising and lucky some statisticians are doing statistics but that’s not what this book is about. your results are – or your assumption wrong. It is about researchers who have fooled is wrong, and the medication truly Statistician Alex Reinhart has written themselves by making errors they works.” a helpful book, Statistics Done Wrong: didn’t realise they were making. He He explains confidence intervals and The Woefully Complete Guide, which cites Hanlon’s razor: “Never attribute effect size and shows that they are much every researcher and everyone who reads to malice that which is adequately more meaningful than significance research would benefit from reading. explained by incompetence.” He says testing. As an example, five large meta- The book contains a few graphs but is even conclusions based on properly analyses set out to answer the question blissfully equation-free. It doesn’t teach done statistics can’t always be trusted, “Do statins reduce mortality in patients how to calculate anything; it explains because it is trivially easy to “torture the with no history of cardiovascular blunders in recent research and how to data until it confesses”. disease?” Three meta-analyses answered avoid them. yes, two answered no MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT (based on finding or INADEQUATE EDUCATION THE P VALUE not finding significant AND SELF-DECEPTION A p value of less than differences at the p <0.05 Most of us have little or no formal .05 is considered level). People reading that education in statistics and have picked statistically significant by would think the evidence up some knowledge in a haphazard convention. It represents was contradictory and fashion as we went along. Reinhart the probability of getting inconclusive. But he offers some discouraging facts. He says the results they got if presents a graph of a doctor who takes one introductory the null hypothesis is confidence intervals (See statistics course would only be able to true (that there is no Figure) showing that understand about a fifth of the articles difference between the all five studies actually in The New England Journal of Medicine. two groups). showed an effect of On a test of statistical methods Reinhart warns: around 0.9: 10 per cent commonly used in medicine, medical “Remember, a p value is fewer patients on statin 26 The Skeptic September 16

drugs died. In the graph, only two Thavendiranathan 2006 of the studies’ confidence intervals overlapped the “no difference” line, and Studer 2005 only by a very small amount. Looking at it this way, it is obvious that all of the meta-analyses actually showed that Ray 2010 the answer was yes, statins do reduce mortality in patients with no history of Mills 2008 cardiovascular disease. Brugts 2009 COMMON ERRORS Studies have shown that when women 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 live together their menstrual cycles become synchronized. Reinhart RELATIVE RISK OF MORTALITY eviscerates that flawed research and Figure: Confidence intervals for the relative risk of mortality among patients taking statin drugs, shows that menstrual synchrony is (still!) estimated by five different large meta-analyses. A relative risk of less than one indicates smaller a myth. He mentions the infamous dead mortality rates than among the control group. The meta-analyses are labelled by the lead author’s salmon MRI study where a dead salmon name and year of publication. supposedly showed a response indicating it was thinking (wired.com/2009/09/ fmrisalmon/). know which group it came from. He This book is well written, short (129 He explains the errors that are shows the pitfalls of using computer pages), enjoyable to read, and easy to commonly committed in brain imaging programs to analyse statistics rather than understand. It is well-organised, divided studies. He covers double-dipping consulting live statisticians. He reveals conveniently into short chapters, and is in the data, the problem of multiple that errors are common in published enhanced by the examples of research comparisons, truth inflation, the studies: 38 per cent of the papers in the done wrong that illustrate each of its base rate fallacy, pseudoreplication, journal Nature had typos and calculation points. It covers the subject thoroughly underpowered studies, circular analysis, errors in their p values, and reviews yet concisely, and provides copious regression to the mean, correlation is have found examples of mistakes like references for readers who want to know not causation, the loss of information misclassified data, erroneous duplication more. when a continuous variable is arbitrarily of data, or even using the wrong dataset Rather than a guide to statistics, it is dichotomized into two categories, entirely. really more of a guide to critical thinking regression models, missing data, degrees When a new genetic test promised to about pitfalls in the use of statistics. I of freedom, methods to avoid bias, tailor chemotherapy to the individual highly recommend it. Whether you are descriptions of methods that are too patient’s specific variant of cancer, interested in research or statistics, want incomplete to allow replication by analysis by statisticians showed the to know what to look for when reading others, the need for open sharing of research to be such a mess that no a research paper, or just want to improve data, the file drawer and publication bias conclusions could be drawn. your critical thinking skills, you will find problems, the Reproducibility Project, it of value. Even if you are an expert in reporting bias, poor compliance with POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS statistics, you might think it deserves a registering clinical trials and reporting He mentions several proposed statistical place on your bookshelf. . all their findings, and poor compliance reforms (abandoning p values, switching with guidelines like CONSORT. to confidence intervals, switching to NOTE: Harriet Hall will be one of the He shows why stopping rules must new Bayesian methods) but thinks key speakers at the next Australian Skeptics be defined in advance: it is tempting to they all have merits and doesn’t pick National Convention in Melbourne stop the study at a point where the data one to advocate. He calls for better November 25-27 (convention.skeptics.com. favour your hypothesis, but further data statistics education with new evidence- au). This article was originally published in collection might reverse the findings. based teaching methods aimed at her regular blog on Science-Based Medicine. He explains Simpson’s paradox, where identifying and overcoming students’ an apparent trend in data is caused misconceptions and holes in their by a confounding variable and can be knowledge. He advocates reforms in eliminated or even reversed by splitting scientific publishing. He gives specific the data into meaningful groups. He guidelines for reading a scientific paper. About the author: advocates not just double-blind, but In every chapter, he points out common Harriet Hall triple-blind experiments, where the errors and then gives concrete advice is a retired physician and statisticians analysing the data don’t about how researchers can avoid them. author of skepdopc.info. 27 ARTICLE Classic Catch - Physics Never Ending Story

Anthony Garrett looks at the physics and history of “perpetuum mobile” – the perpetual motion machine.

here is a considerable grey them as a result! wheel and then returns by gravity to its T area between science and Astrology, though, was once in the starting point. pseudoscience. Skeptical organisations mainstream of science, even though Perpetual motion was a hot topic in exist to combat the latter, and to scientists today would not use that the 19th century, both for theoretical encourage the critical mode of thought word to describe the efforts of their reasons (could energy be created from employed by the former. forebears. nowhere?) and for practical reasons Often the distinction is clear To paraphrase William Blake, (because the age of the engineer was at cut; astronomy is clearly a science, “Knowledge itself will not be the same its height). Since the idea is analysable for example, and astrology clearly a when we know more”. Perhaps the from the standpoint of modern science, pseudoscience. Internal consistency birth of what we call the scientific it is in this realm that the answers is the most valuable criterion for mode of thought was a one-off should be sought; the criterion of distinguishing between the two: a new revolution for all time; perhaps internal consistency, which serves as idea in astronomy, if it conflicts with today’s science will not merely be a weapon against more complicated the old, must either be rejected or, less outdated, but transcended. There are schools of thought external to science, often, must cause sufficient revision to no signs of this yet, New Age ideals is not needed. the old ideas to permit its incorporation notwithstanding. Yet perpetual motion still stands without contradiction. In this article I shall examine as a grey area: some of its proponents Astrology, by contrast, is a mess another endeavour which was once are clear-cut cranks, some simply of ad hoc ideas which are often in mainstream science, and moreover lacking in scientific education. I have mutual contradiction: predictions of science in today’s sense of the word: personally encountered both types. For tropical and sidereal astrology stand in perpetual motion. the first type, it is all a crazy hobby, open conflict, and one system cannot The appeal is immediate to anyone but for the second a good deal of time, even predict anything at all for those who has seen Escher’s marvellous visual money and even lives are needlessly people born north of the Arctic Circle. pun, arising from the projection of wasted. Let this serve as a warning to Nobody thought to warn the Eskimos three dimensions onto two, in which those who doubt that scientific literacy of this peril, and no harm has befallen water cascades down over a water is the currency of our age. Even a 28 The Skeptic September 16

hundred years ago the US Navy came their machines. These laws were first forces and torques which people can close to espousing the cause of one elucidated by Isaac Newton three feel, and so is often beyond untutored particular machine. centuries ago, and state that: intuition. I am invariably told, with The reason why perpetual motion Force = Mass x Acceleration; a don’t-blind-me-with-science look, still remains popular, over a century Torque = Moment of inertia x Angular “That’s as may be, but what is wrong after the idea was definitively laid acceleration. with my machine?” to rest, is of course the dream of The reason for the laws’ ready As a working scientist with a conjuring energy out of nothing. acceptance is that one’s intuition is responsibility to my employer, I am Were this feasible, all the coal-fired schooled in them. placed in a quandary power stations, with their sulphurous Once it is accepted when asked by a well- emissions, could be closed; likewise that undisturbed “ Still a grey area - meaning perpetual nuclear fission power plants, with motion is a body’s some of its proponents motion advocate to their radioactive waste; ‘natural’ natural state, that examine the design for power sources, with their supposed it alters its velocity are clear-cut cranks, a particular machine. threat of covering the world’s deserts only when a force is some simply lack Together with the and mountains with solar cells and acting upon it, and inevitable discussion, windmills, could be dropped; the that slowing down scientific education.” it can take many huge funds expended on energy is not the natural hours. research redeployed; and cheap state but the result of frictional forces, Because it is an easy matter to energy made readily available to the path to Newton’s laws is easy. (It produce a machine with an obvious developing countries. Not a bad list of nevertheless took a genius of Newton’s acceleration mechanism but a subtle achievements for a humble machine. stature to comprehend this for the first deceleration process, the permutations time.) are endless. TYPES OF PERPETUAL MOTION But, crucially, the same people do Even more subtle are those machines Perpetual motion proposals are of two not accept that the force laws also which interchange energy between its types, and the distinction is crucial. imply conservation of energy. This various manifestations: motion, work A perpetual motion machine of consequence is a fact – scientists call it against gravity, heat, latent energy the first kind actually creates energy; a first integral of Newton’s laws – but of evaporation (the ‘drinking bird’), some of this is inevitably rendered it is one step further removed from the electromagnetism, and so on. Some of inaccessible through losses due the subtleties are quite ingenious, to friction in the bearings of the but if Newton’s laws are operating machine, or air drag against the as they have been understood moving parts, or whatever; the for three centuries, the catch is rest is available to the world as inevitably there somewhere. free energy. One particular catch occurs A perpetual motion machine so frequently that it is worth of the second kind, by contrast, special mention. Perpetual does not create or destroy energy. motion machines, in common It runs forever by completely with many others, are almost eliminating friction in the invariably cyclic: after sufficient bearings, air resistance and such. operation, referred to as a cycle, However, any attempt to extract the machine has returned to its energy from it causes it to slow initial configuration. A wheel down. making one complete turn, and These two types of machine an internal combustion engine, run counter to the first and are examples of cyclic machines. second laws of thermodynamics (Cyclicity is a matter of respectively (First law – energy is convenience, since a non-cyclic conserved; second law – entropy machine would be difficult to increases). exploit.) Most perpetual motion machines proposed nowadays are of the first, ‘glory’ kind. Their Norman Rockwell cover for Popular proponents invariably agree with Science Monthly, October 1920: “The old scientists as to the laws of force old fallacy rises again. Here we tomahawk and torque operating within it once more.” 0329 ARTICLE Classic Catch - Physics

Never Ending Story Continued...

Often, proposed perpetual motion machines have an obvious acceleration mechanism in one part of the cycle, while the deceleration occurs in a separate part. It is essential to consider the energy balance over a complete cycle. Perpetual motion machines of the second kind, though less commercially attractive, are no less interesting. Moreover, they exist! The circumstances for their observation are very special, however, and cannot be duplicated in the household – as we shall see – unless one has a very exceptional fridge indeed. It will not have escaped the alert reader’s notice that, from Newton’s laws, an isolated body with and it will run for longer. Sharpen the fundamental dynamics of the system, no forces or torque acting upon it point of contact and it will run for and is therefore a law of an altogether exhibits precisely perpetual motion longer still. But, eventually, it will still different kind from the first. of the second type. The problem is to run down in the absence of any external Heat is inaccessible as an energy reduce the force and torque to zero. energy source. The starting energy has source (although energy can be A top may spin for five minutes until not been destroyed, for the system is extracted from bodies of differing friction at the point, and air resistance, isolated, but converted into heat in temperatures) since one would have cause it to fail. Place it in an evacuated the surrounding air and the point of to know the differing directions of container to eliminate air resistance, contact. motion of all those million million Since heat is kinetic (motional) million molecules in order to extract energy of the air molecules, we could the energy. It is not surprising that still see motion if only our eyesight were there is an intimate relation between good enough. The motion is therefore information and entropy, the perpetual, although on a microscopic quantity relating to the second law of rather than an easily observable, thermodynamics. everyday, macroscopic scale. The energy of the top has been degraded into heat. REAL PERPETUAL MOTION This degradation process translates Other perpetual motion machines of into physics as the second law of the second kind owe their explanation thermodynamics. It is a consequence to quantum theory, the revolutionary of our inability to see on the atomic post-Newtonian picture of nature on scale, rather than a law relating to the the sub-atomic scale worked out in the first three decades of the 20th century. One example is the humble electron Above: Leonardo da Vinci’s drawings - he peacefully orbiting an atomic nucleus. was sceptical of proponents of perpetual Obviously there is no air resistance: motion, comparing them with alchemists. air itself consists of atoms, and we are Left: Zimara’s 16th century windmill. now looking within the atom! Because 30 The Skeptic September 16

Below: Bishop Wilkins’ 16th century magnetic machine - ball is pulled up and drops down. Left: Marquis of Worcester described a classic perpetual motion machine in the 17th century, but it wasn’t illustrated until the 18th.

of the peculiarities of quantum theory, constitute perpetual motion of the an Obsession, (Allen & Unwin, 1977). one can no longer view the electron as second kind. They violate the second Nowadays, with the laws of a tiny cricket ball going round a larger law of thermodynamics because, thermodynamics taken largely for one; but the criterion for a perpetual ultimately, that is not a law at all but granted, it is difficult to imagine a time motion machine of the second type is a heuristic. As was stated, one needs when energy conservation was not still satisfied, namely the description to possess complete information established, and the equivalence of the of the system does not alter with time, pertaining to a system in order to various forms of energy, particularly unless it is perturbed from the outside. extract all the thermal heat, was fiercely The system does not ‘run down’. energy, and the second debated. Yet such It might be argued that this is law merely states “ Superconducting was the situation cheating; we can’t see this electron and, in effect that it is materials have been up to the middle even if we could, the act of seeing it, impossible in practice of the last century, involving bombarding it with photons, to obtain information found at higher and we owe it to the would alter its state. However, we have on those millions of temperatures than was early proponents of now learned how to set up an easily millions of particles. thought possible. perpetual motion to determined quantum state of arbitrary It is not impossible ” judge them by their extent. in principle, and if the own time. The secret is to cool the system system consists of a single electron, or a A Sanskrit manuscript from the sufficiently close to absolute zero. single superconducting quantum state, first half of the fifth century refers to a The phenomenon of it is an easy matter. wheel, free to rotate about a horizontal superconductivity, in which an Finally, as far as the theory of axis, with sealed holes half-filled with electric current circulates in a chilled perpetual motion is concerned, energy mercury drilled radially in from its wire with zero resistance (not just a conservation still holds in Einstein’s circumference. very small resistance, but truly zero) relativity theory provided that mass Once started, the whole was is an example. Superconducting m is seen as a further form of energy supposed to maintain its rotation. materials have been found which E related in theory by the famous Presumably its inventor believed lose all their electrical resistance at equation E=mc2 and in practice in the extra moment, arising when the far higher temperatures than any nuclear reactors; and that in spite mercury on the descending side of the known before (though still colder of the statistical nature of quantum wheel moved under centripetal force than the coldest fridge) and indeed at mechanics, energy conservation still from the inner end of its container higher temperatures than was thought holds exactly in the quantum picture. to the circumferential end, provides possible. Admittedly you can’t see sufficient impetus to keep the thing an electric current, but its associated HISTORY OF PERPETUAL MOTION going. magnetic field is directly observable. With the scientific theory behind us, This is the earliest known coherent Then there is superfluidity, in which we can now look at the entertaining suggestion for perpetual motion. In a supercooled liquid will flow up the history of the perpetual motion reality, it is not a machine of the first inside of a tube immersed in it, and machine. Much of the following is kind (of course), and fails, because of back down the outside, indefinitely. adapted from Arthur Ord-Hume’s friction, to be of the second kind. These examples undeniably book, Perpetual Motion: The History of Nevertheless this machine is an 31 ARTICLE Classic Catch - Physics

Never Ending Story Continued...

unwitting prototype of many proposed in 18th century Europe in which weights attached to the circumference of the wheel are arranged to dispose themselves farther from the axis on the descending side of the wheel than the ascending. Some of these were marvellously intricate, and the Marquis of Worcester, who is believed to have constructed the first practical steam engine, proposed several and claimed success for one in 1655. These were pre-dated by the Italian philosopher Zimara, who in 1518 proposed a mechanical link between a windmill and a set of bellows aimed at the windmill. Perpetual motion machines and became sceptical as a result of its John Keely (and friend) with his globe motor invariably involve a conversion of failure; perpetual motion was in the air “musical dynasphere”. energy from one mode to another in of the times. an attempt to beat one of the laws of From the 1720s onwards, proposals thermodynamics, and it is usual to find were rife. It is assuredly no coincidence idea of energy conservation came to that one mode is “traditional” – such as that the idea was only laid to rest permeate the general consciousness, the wind operating the windmill – and once the industrial revolution was was exploitation and fraud. is then augmented by a proposed back- consolidated, when testing and failure E. P. Willis of Connecticut charged link of the modes, completing a closed became a matter of routine. admission to view an asymmetrical- loop of energy. (An electric motor The harnessing of electromagnetism wheel machine which he set up in New powered by a generator, and also linked led to a new series of proposals in the Haven and subsequently New York. It back mechanically to it, is another last century, all essentially coupling was maintained in a glass case and was example.) motors to generators. In fact, the actually powered by compressed air A measure of the respectability of earliest coherent magnetic proposal passed up a strut and over one of the perpetual motion at this time was that goes as far back as 1570, when the geared wheels. Willis was an exploiter as great a genius as Leonardo da Vinci, Jesuit priest Taisnierus proposed that rather than a fraudster, who challenged Zimara’s contemporary, produced an iron ball would roll down a ramp visitors to state how the machine could sketches for six designs of machine. under gravity and be drawn back to its run other than by perpetual motion. By far the most common proposals starting point, along a second ramp, by No such constraints attached concerned self-propelling water wheels. a magnet. to Charles Redheffer, who set up a The water mill was in widespread use In the 18th century, a London machine in 1812 in Philadelphia throughout Europe, and what was clockmaker, James Cox, constructed which ran unceasingly. Needless to more natural than to harness its power the first clock to be powered by say, viewing was not free of charge. A to raise the water once more? Escher’s changes in atmosphere pressure. Such team of experts sent to examine it in visual pun exemplifies this concept. clocks are only as perpetual as the connection with Redheffer’s application The appropriately-named Robert weather, ultimately powered by the for funding detected that the wear on Fludd (1574-1637) and Georg heat of the sun. Be that as it may, Cox’s two connected gears was on the wrong Bockler of Nurnberg were two leading device was ingenious in design and side, and were satisfied that fraud visionaries of this kind. It mattered attracted favourable comment. was involved. They did not detect its little that Bishop Wilkins tested a A natural corollary to the failure of nature, but instead reproduced the similar scheme of his own in 1648 perpetual motion machines, before the fraud by building a similar machine 32 The Skeptic September 16

with concealed clockwork and a winder ‘‘etheric disintegration” and nearly one hundred years later that a disguised as an ornamental knob. “quadruple negative harmonics”. Such working model be submitted within Redheffer privately offered its owner, pseudoscientific terms are often used by one year of the initial application; but Sellers, a large sum not to reveal his today’s charlatans; plus ça change! enthusiasts still gummed up the works secret; instead, Sellers denounced With the initiated he was far more with unimplemented proposals, and Redheffer. guarded, and pains were taken to finally in 1911 a working model was Worse was to come in New York, ensure no man of science was permitted demanded from the start. where Redheffer to examine the This rule was challenged in the constructed a further machine too closely. courts and in 1979 inventor Howard machine. The Pains were taken In the 1880s, Johnston finally won US patent no submarine pioneer “ the Keely Motor 4151431 on his proposal. Robert Fulton to ensure no man of Company, Nevertheless, it is hardly accurate to recognised its uneven science was permitted discouraged by his suggest that the world waits with bated speed during one cycle to examine the machine failure to produce breath for a working model. as characteristic of a a commercial crank (appropriately!), too closely.” motor, cut off his CONCLUSION denounced it on the funding. He found The story of perpetual motion spot, and dismantled a suspicious- an alternative source in a wealthy exemplifies the entire human looking support strut to reveal a widow, Mrs Moore, who had faith in endeavour: an upward crawl to catgut-belted drive run by a man his ideas; and promptly unveiled a new enlightenment, with theory and turning a wheel of eccentric shape one, “vibrating energy” in the ether, practice advancing side by side; (even more appropriately!) in a nearby which underlay the disintegration of momentous discoveries by pioneers, room. The crowd, which had paid $5 a water. The Motor Company sued him which ultimately become the bedrock man, a large sum in those days, (ladies for reimbursement, but he claimed upon which the next advances are free, for some reason) demolished the his latest idea was unrelated to those built; and ever the charlatans seeking remainder, and Redheffer fled. he had uncovered under its aegis and to exploit ignorance for their own But the finest fraud was perpetrated refused to pay. After a spell in prison, gain. by John Keely, again of Philadelphia. he succeeded in satisfying the court of I have chosen to present the whole In 1875, he unveiled a complicated this. business as a case history rather variant on the steam engine in which Keely was forced to tread warily than a warning; but if any lesson he would blow into a nozzle for half a when his benefactress attempted to is to be drawn, it is that the best minute and then pour five gallons of have leading scientific figures validate insurance against charlatanism is a water into it. After a whizzbang show his device. Tesla and Madison declined, scientifically educated public. In the of manipulating various valves and taps but a visit in 1895 led the engineers mid-80s a Los Angeles jury acquitted a he would then announce the apparatus involved to suspect compressed air perpetual motion machine inventor of was charged with a mysterious vapour sources. They were right. After Keely’s fraudulently raising up to US$685,000 at a pressure of 10,000 pounds per death three years later, the son of one of from the gullible, because (the attorney square inch. his backers promptly rented the house, later found) they believed perpetual Keely claimed the power source was and found it was comprehensively motion and energy creation were the disintegration of water. Latter day “wired” to a three-ton air tank in the possible. enthusiasts prefer, like Keely, to tap basement. The sooner that can no longer “new forms of energy” rather than deny happen, the better. . its conservation. This is theoretically PATENTS possible, but it is extremely unlikely The first patent on a perpetual motion that new exploitable forms will be proposal was granted in Britain in Note:This Classic Catch article was first found, and even so it would still not 1635, only twelve years after patenting published in The Skeptic, Vol 7 No 4, provide something for nothing. was introduced. By 1775 though, Summer 1987. The main reason for Keely’s success the Parisian Academy of Science was – he raised over a million dollars to sufficiently disillusioned to refuse to set up the Keely Motor Company accept schemes. Since this was long About the author: – was showmanship. Keely was an before the establishment of energy At time of writing, Dr imposing figure with an air of honesty conservation, the gentlemen of Paris Anthony Garrett was a about him, who was fond of baffling can only have been motivated by the research physicist at Sydney the uninitiated with phrases such as repeated failure of all such devices in University and is now founder “hydropneumatic-pulsating-vacu- practice. and managing editor at engine”, “sympathetic equilibrium”, The US Patent Office decreed SciText Cambridge. 33 ARTICLE Neurology

a

Brian Dunning asks a fundamental question on grey matter - left brained, right brained, or hare brained?

erhaps the most pervasive popular to reveal our brain sidedness. The Pbelief that people associate with questions were similar to what you neuroscience is the idea that we all might get in a personality test, asking tend to be either left-brained or about whether you prefer math or art, right-brained, based on traits like privacy or crowds, planning ahead or creativity or analytical ability. It’s well working on the fly. known that certain brain functions are Some days later we each received localised in various parts of the brain, our results: a two-axis radar chart, so it would seem to make sense that showing a skewed diamond with its some of our individual strengths and left and right corners representing weaknesses can be quantified based the levels to which we depended on left on brain hemisphere dominance. our left brain or right brain, and the Quite a few companies even sell top and bottom corners showing products intended to analyse your the degree to which we depended other. The horizontal axis had a range brain sidedness, promising a variety on our anterior or posterior parts of of zero to 120 on both sides. of personal development benefits. But our brain. It was explained to us that We all thought that anyone who is this belief - so widely held - good these results could be used to help had a chart exceeding 100 on either science, terrible science, or some us self-assess our aptitudes at various side must be extraordinarily talented mixture of the two? skills. Would we be good at sales, according to the popularly believed Once in college, I took an Honors leadership, or education? What areas norms: if you were over 100 on the left Colloquium class that was supposed of ourselves could we work on to you were a math or analytical genius; to expose us to a wide variety of ideas improve ourselves? What kind of value if you were over 100 on the right you and experiences. It was taught by three could we add to an organisation with were the next Mozart or Rembrandt. professors who were presented to us as our particular brain map? I was very proud that mine was the being the smartest, most well-rounded Most students had crazily shaped only one that was symmetrical, 94 on guys on campus. One of our exercises radar charts that showed a strong both sides; but after later reflection, was to take a test that was supposed dependence on one brain area or the I recalled that many of the questions 34 The Skeptic September 16

context, and many other variables. they were generally all right. But Looking at the same test now, I when only one hand was allowed to realise that was only the tip of the feel an object, and only one eye was iceberg. Brain sidedness as a predictor allowed to read a certain word, a lot of of either preferences or aptitudes is fascinating things happened. unscientific for a very good reason: it’s Patients reported seeing the word if virtually entirely wrong. they saw it with their left eye, but not if they saw it with their right eye. In LEFT-RIGHT DOMINANCE fact, if shown the name of an object Let’s go back to that popular public with their left eye (interpreted with assumption that the left brain their right brain), their left hand could is analytic and the right brain is identify and find the object. But then creative, upon which so many of the when the patient was asked about it questions in my Honors Colloquium (requiring the left brain), they were test focused, and upon which the unable to say what word they’d been whole class based the entirety of their shown and unable to explain why they analyses of their test results. were holding it. Spoken language, it The natural inference is that people seemed, was centred in the left side whose left brains are of the brain; while dominant must be good the ability to analyse at analytical skills, and “ Is this belief - so and comprehend was people whose right widely held - good centred in the right. brains are dominant However, pop- must be good at creative science, terrible culture psychology skills. The reverse would science, or a mixture decided to also be true: If you misunderstand and are a mathematician of the two?” exaggerate this. or engineer, we might Ever since then, deduce that you are left-brained; and there’s been this popular notion that if you’re an artist or poet, that you’re people with strong tendencies toward right-brained. analytical or artistic pursuits must be Where did this idea come from? dominant in one hemisphere or the It appears to have its original roots other. The idea can be traced back to in the work of Dr Roger Sperry, who two facts. worked with epileptic patients in The first fact is that, as Sperry and the 1960s and 1970s. One extreme Gazzaniga demonstrated, many brain form of treatment was to sever the functions are localised. Just about corpus callosum, which is the major any given function is centralised in right connection between the two brain a particular brain region. Two of the hemispheres. He was a co-recipient of most familiar are language, which is the 1981 Nobel Prize in Physiology localised mainly in the left hemisphere, and Medicine for his split-brain and facial recognition more in the had to do with the classes we were research, which was the seminal work right hemisphere. Today we can verify taking. that taught us that certain functions these types of observations which At the time my idea was to double in the brain are lateralised, that is, technologies such as fMRI (functional major in computer science and film concentrated in one hemisphere or the magnetic resonance imaging) which directing, so I’d given a lot of answers other. shows where blood flow is greatest that indicated I was both analytical An interesting part of the in the brain at a given moment, a and creative. I hadn’t had much work Sperry did with one of his technology that was unavailable in experience in scientific skepticism at collaborators, Dr Michael Gazzaniga, Sperry’s day. If someone is working on that point, but if I had, I might well was to find out what would happen math problem, we’ll see more activity have realised that the test was grossly to patients whose corpus callosums in a different part of the brain than unscientific and relied completely on (corpora callosa if you are pedantically we would if they were looking at a self-reported answers that might have inclined) were severed. In short, so painting. changed from one day to the next, long as patients had both eyes and The second fact is that people are depending on mood, terminology, both hands available to perform tasks, either left-handed or right-handed. For 35 ARTICLE Neurology

Half a mind can often re-learn abilities (to varying of “analysis, expression, drive, and degrees) that used to be localised in stability”, and the word “neuroscience” Continued... the damaged region. A left-handed is peppered throughout the marketing person need not necessarily become materials and products of these right-handed after suffering an injury companies. In fact it’s supported by in the right hemisphere. A familiar no evidence at all, and no legitimate example of neuroplasticity is the neuroscience pretends to measure these the most part, the left side of the body ability of stroke victims to regain traits. is controlled by the right side of the functions such as speech, agility, and Dr Steven Novella summed it brain, and the right side of the body is even symmetrical control of facial up aptly in his final sentence of a controlled by the left. A right-handed muscles after losing 2008 article in person working a complicated task those abilities to the Neurologica: “The with his right hand will show more brain damage caused “ Companies promise left-brain/right- fMRI activity in his left hemisphere, by their stroke. to improve your brain dichotomy and vice versa. So it stands to reason Notably, the is pop-psychology - apparently - that a leftie will tend majority of patients business performance pseudoscience. to be more skilled at activities that who undergo and identify areas for Be suspicious of are lateralised in the right part of the perhaps the most improvement. anyone touting brain, such as composing music, and frighteningly-named ” it as a legitimate a rightie will tend to be more skilled surgical procedure, or insightful way at things like computer programming. the hemispherectomy, are able to of looking at human personality or This has largely given rise to the myth live relatively normal lives (at least cognition.” that left-handed people tend to be when the procedure is done earlier in Neuroscience is, at once, one of the more creative: better artists, better childhood; older patients don’t often most complex and nascent fields in musicians. fare as well). Memory, personality, and current research. Brains are perhaps So what’s the problem with these aptitudes are usually unchanged after the most complicated and nuanced two facts? Despite that they’re both the procedure. Manual dexterity and structures in nature. Send not thy true, why are they not reasons that vision are usually heavily impaired on money to those who claimed to have it people are left brain dominant or the side opposite the hemisphere that all figured out. right brain dominant? is removed, but that’s the result of the As a neurologist at the University of loss of certain anatomical structures. Arizona told me after reading a draft NEUROPLASTICITY Studies of hemispherectomy of this article, brain tests such as brain Although brain functions can be patients have shown no correlation sidedness, Myers-Briggs, etc, are just as lateralised, the brain as a whole is between which half was removed ‘science-based’ as the average “Which a single unit. The corpus callosum is and the patients’ language abilities, Game of Thrones Character Are You” there for a good reason; the brain analytical abilities, and other skills we quiz on Buzzfeed. . hemispheres must be linked to work tend to relate to brain sidedness. together, just as your computer’s Neuroplasticity is the basic internal components must be linked explanation for why personalities Reprinted with permission from Skeptoid by cables. The fact that certain and aptitudes are not correlated with #418, June 10, 2014. functions tend to be lateralised has any sort of hemisphere “dominance”; nothing to do with any “dominance” to the neurologist, it’s essentially a of one hemisphere or the other in meaningless term. About the author: people with particular skills. Nevertheless, you will find that Brian Dunning is a computer And although left-handed and any number of companies sell tests scientist, and host & producer right-handed people will tend to claimed to help you better understand of the award-winning podcast, show differing levels of activity in your aptitudes and potential based Skeptoid: Critical Analysis their hemispheres when performing on determining whether you’re of Pop Phenomena (www. certain tasks, it’s not necessarily a left-brained, right-brained, anterior- skeptoid.com). requirement. An important feature brained, posterior-brained, or just of the brain is an ability we call about anything else. Companies neuroplasticity, which is its power promise to improve your business to relocate certain functions when performance and help you identify needed. Sometimes brain injuries areas for improvement. One even can destroy a region. Neuroplasticity provides a 60-page report including means that other parts of the brain an 8-axis radar chart, your ranges 36

PUZZLES

ACROSS Brain testers 1. Skeptical gathering, as is their custom. (10) CRYPTIC CROSSWORD no 31 6. Give 1ac speaker passage. (4) 10. As I can’t sort it out, this clue is from Hell. (7) 4 5 6 8 1 2 3 4 7 11. In the French fashion, types of alcohol raise concerns. 9 (7) 10 C 11 12. Inactive state found in the east, right? (5) 13. Fence like a helper in the royal residence? (8) 15. Beyond the grave or before the cradle? (4,4) 12 13 O U 17. A trial interrupted to worship only God. (6) A H 14 19. Rich in golden content of divination. (1,5) 15 1616 S 17U 21. A horsey game requires gender impact assessment for 18 20 opinionated defence. S R 24. Cane aims something or other … I’ve forgotten. (8) 19 20 21 22 R E 25. I score when angry. (5) R 23 24A 27. Was loving Italian PM murdered in Australia? 25O 24 M 25 Y 28. Dissipates calcium in false fronts. (7) 26 28O 29. I heard it’s a lock for the drink; it works like a charm. 27 28 (4) E 30. Archetypal ratbags know it’s time for Little Richard’s disturbed rest. (10) 29 30 L DOWN Tim Mendham + Steve Roberts 1. Andromeda’s Mum copies Asia disarray. (10) DR BOB’S QUIZ 2. Crazies disturb the test run. (7) 3. 1 ac speaker is not particularly stern. (5) Looking back … way back … at the Summer Olympics. 4. Both open and finish? (2,3,3) 6. Nothing is vaguely clear to the prophet. (6) 1. How many nations participated in the first Modern Olympic Games in 1896? 7. Apart, like beneath. (7) 8. Final fake foot. (4) 2. Which Olympic Games are not recognised by the International Olympic Committee (IOC)? 9. 1 ac speaker will gather fifty. (8) 14. A pure class performance from a Medieval polymath. 3. Which Olympic Games had two host cities? (10) 4. Why were the 1908 games moved from Rome to London? 16. Is that good knight a keen surgeon? 5. Only five sports have featured at every Modern Olympics. What 18. Particular element of speculative opening. (8) are they? 20. Finish the bottom of a tress and finish you off for 6. How many sports featured in the first ancient games in 776 good. (7) BCE? 22. Eminent person from Greece and ease. (7) 23. Phiz the smoocher. (6) 25. Can’t I scan old Americans? (5) 26. A good agreement put away? (4) Answers on page 62

38 ARTICLE Mythology The Skeptic September 16 Bad

Breath

Could the fire of a fire-breathing dragon be a reality? Brett I. Cohen takes a chemical perspective.

ragons are a common part monstrous serpents of Germanic A particularly noteworthy type D of folklore and mythology, myth and folklore; and the dragon of dragon depicted in European overlapping across various cultures encountered by Beowulf. mythology and folklore is one that and periods. The word “dragon” is The Bible (Job 41, 18-21) describes breathes fire. This creature is normally derived from the Latin word draco; a creature called the Leviathan: “Its depicted as huge with a horned the name also applies to a northern snorting throws out flashes of light; lizard-like appearance, usually with hemisphere constellation. The word its eyes are like the rays of dawn. / leathery bat-like wings, four legs, a for dragon in Germanic mythology Flames stream from its mouth; sparks long muscular tail, and able to emit is worm (which means snake or of fire shoot out. / Smoke pours fire from its mouth. It is sometimes serpent). In Old English, draca means from its nostrils as from a boiling illustrated with feathered wings, with “dragon” and the Finnish lohikäärme pot over burning reeds. / Its breath a crest or ivory spikes running down directly translates to sets coals ablaze, and flames its spine. “salmon-snake”. dart from its mouth.” (New Its existence goes well beyond There are famous International Version) ancient or medieval myth into popular dragons depicted Dragons are also depicted culture today: the TV series Game in Norse and in Celtic, Slavic, Italian of Thrones includes highly effective Germanic mythology: and English mythology fire-breathing dragons, not to mention Jörmungandr and and folklore. They are also the Harry Potter films, The Hobbit, Miðgarðsormurinn part of many cultures Dragonslayer, Dragonheart, Reign of from Icelandic; throughout the world, Fire and, of course, the classic 50s Midgårdsormen from such as Chinese, Indian, monster movie, Godzilla (Gojira). Swedish, Danish and Japanese, Vietnamese and Norwegian (a giant sea Korean. THE CHEMISTRY serpent surrounding But for this article So let’s assume for a moment that Miðgarð, the world of we’ll stick to the such creatures are real. mortal men); Lindworms, European variety. Understandably, the exact 0339 ARTICLE Mythology

Bad Breath component of natural gas. methane gas with dioxygen to It is a tetrahedral molecule produce carbon dioxide and Continued... with four equivalent water is: C-H bonds. At room CH4 (methane gas) + 2 temperature and standard O2 (dioxygen) → CO2 pressure, methane is (carbon dioxide) + 2 H2O mechanism for producing the fire colourless and odourless (water) for a fire-breathing dragon is not gas. As a gas, methane is Methane gas could be known. But taking the mechanism flammable over a range of ignited by a combination out of myth, we can apply a detailed concentrations (from of chemicals such as chemical approach to see how fire- approximately 4 to phosphine gas and its breathing might be effected. 17 per cent) in the Understandably, the chemical derivative Two chemical compounds air with a heat of “ diphosphane that are candidates are methane combustion of 55.5 exact mechanism for gas (P2H4). (CH4) gas and phosphine (PH3) MJ/kg or 890 KJ/ producing the fire for a Phosphine (an gas. Both of these are involved in mol (at standard fire-breathing dragon organophosphorus cellular biology for living animals. conditions). compound with a Methane is produced as a result of The standard is not known. trigonal pyramidal the digestion of plant matter in the enthalpy (ΔH) of ” structure) is intestines, and phosphines are used combustion is the colourless and as a chemical building block resulting enthalpy change when one mole of a flammable. In the presence of a in the formation of more complex reactant completely burns in oxygen small quantity (as in traces or as compounds such as enzymes and under standard thermodynamic an impurity) of P2H4, PH3 is peptides (involving peptide synthesis). conditions. By definition, the heat spontaneously flammable in air. The chemical reactions for methane of combustion (which is always a In other words, typically PH3 will and phosphine gases in order to positive number) is determined by spontaneously ignite in the air if trace produce the fire-breathing effect are the formula minus the enthalpy impurities of diphoshane gas (P2H4) described below. change for a combustion reaction are present. Let’s propose that the fuel source (-ΔreactionH). It should be noted The following balanced chemical for the fire-breathing dragon is that combustion is an exothermic reaction illustrates the burning of methane (CH4) gas. Methane is reaction where the enthalpy change phosphine in the air (dioxygen) to the simplest alkane and the main for this chemical reaction is negative produce phosphorus pentoxide and and ΔH is therefore water. also negative. This 2PH3 (phosphine gas) + 4O2 reaction is extremely (dioxygen) → P2O5 (phosphorus thermodynamic pentoxide) + 3H2O (water) downhill and does Therefore, the fire-breathing not require energy mechanism described in this (such as heat) to article involves a two-step process: be put into the spontaneous ignition of phosphine gas reaction for it to in the presence of trace (impurity) of proceed. The ΔH for diphosphane gas, and the extremely methane is -890 kJ/ efficient combustion of methane gas. It mol. The balanced should also be noted that phosphorus chemical reaction for pentoxide (P2O5), the end-product the combustion of from the ignition of phosphine gas, would be vapourised during the combustion of methane gas. FIRE BEYOND DRAGONS There are real-world animals that St George and the dragon. have strange or weird and interesting Woodcut frontispiece chemical reactions associated with from Alexander Barclay’s their cellular biology that defy Lyfe of Seynt George imagination. For example, the Westminster 1515. bombardier beetle can shoot chemicals 40 The Skeptic September 16

out of its tail with temperatures of the Logical Place up to 100oC. This beetle has Argument from analogy two secretion nalogical reasoning is one of the lobes that secrete A most common methods by which hydroquinone and human beings attempt to understand aqueous hydrogen the world and make decisions. We peroxide (H2O2). seem to have evolved with a propensity Hydroquinone to find patterns in things and events, is also known as even when no such patterns exist. benzene-1,4-diol Suppose, for example, that I am or quinol. It is an thinking about buying a new washing aromatic organic machine. I’m very likely to speak compound that is a type of phenol The Bombadier beetle can shoot chemicals up with other people who have recently which is a derivative of benzene (with to 100oC out of its tail. bought new washing machines, noting the chemical formula C6H4(OH)2). their experiences with various makes, The same cells secrete both of models, and dealers. If I discover that these chemicals (hydroquinone REFERENCES three of my friends have recently and hydrogen peroxide). They are 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_ bought a particular brand that all three collected in a special reservoir in dragon have been delighted with, then I might the beetle’s abdomen which opens 2. Pimentel, M.; Lin, H.C.; Enayati, P.; van conclude by analogy that if I buy the into a reaction chamber through a den Burg, B.; Lee, H-R.; Chen, J.H.; Park, same brand, I will be delighted too. one-way valve. When the beetle is S.; Kong, Y.; Conklin, J. Methane, a gas Yet it is possible that some models of threatened, it contracts the muscle- produced by enteric bacteria, slows the same brand of washing machine lined reservoir to send the chemicals intestinal transit and augments small are sufficiently different that the into the reaction chamber where intestinal contractile activity. American analogy is misleading. the hydroquinone and hydrogen Journal of Physiology - Gastrointestinal The Argument from analogy is a peroxide quickly heat up. The and Liver Physiology 2006 Vol. 290 no. 6, special type of inductive argument, resultant pressure causes the mixture G1089-G1095. whereby perceived similarities between 3. Jennifer A. Prescher, J.A.; Dube, D.H.; to shoot out of the end of the beetle’s two or more things are used as a basis Bertozzi, C.R. Chemical remodelling abdomen at high speeds. Different to infer some further similarity that has of cell surfaces in living animals. 2004 species of beetle have different yet to be observed. A typical structure Nature 430, 873-877. methods for directing the spray (ie or form of the argument is: 4. Hensher, D.A.; Button, K. J. (2003). spray nozzles or lined grooves). The Premise 1: P and Q are similar in bombardier beetle uses its extremely Handbook of transport and the respect to properties a, b, and c. hot, noxious chemical mixture as a environment. Emerald Group Publishing. Premise 2: P has been observed to defence mechanism and it can fire p. 168. have further property x. these chemicals within seconds of 5. https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/ Conclusion: Therefore, Q probably has being attacked. eng/ch8en/conc8en/energycontent. property x also. There could be a mechanism html Of course, the premises do not for the fire-breathing effect of a 6. http://www.ausetute.com.au/ claim that P and Q are identical, only dragon - spontaneous ignition of heatcomb.html phosphine gas in the presence of 7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine that they are similar. The argument a trace impurity of diphosphane 8. Armitage M.H.; Mullisen, L. Preliminary may provide us with good evidence gas, followed by the combustion of observations of the pygidial gland of for the conclusion, but the conclusion methane (CH4) gas. the Bombardier Beetle, Brachinus sp. does not follow as a matter of logical This mechanism for fire-breathing Journalof Creation 2003; 17(1): 95–102. necessity. Determining the strength effect does not seem unreasonable of the argument requires that we take considering the exotic chemistry About the author: into consideration more than just its (the extremely hot temperatures of Dr Brett I Cohen holds form - the content of the premises must over 100oC) and noxious mixture a PhD in inorganic and also come under scrutiny. An argument of chemicals displayed by the bioinorganic chemistry from from analogy with insufficient inductive bombardier beetle. the State University of New strength is fallacious. All we have to do now is prove York at Albany. He can be - by Tim Harding that fire-breathing dragons exist. . reached at [email protected]. 41 ARTICLE Religion theDEVIL’SWORK n a recent self-guided tour of the Mental illness or Iinternet, I came across a page entitled “How to differentiate Demonic demonic possession? Possession from Schizophrenia”. “This’ll be fun!” I thought. Lots Shelley Stocken looks of head-spinning and spewing on at a book that claims to bystanders. But as I read on, I realised it wasn’t much fun at all. This page was a know the difference. serious guide for interpreting the unusual behaviour of a loved one and making a spiritual diagnosis. I was stunned to learn that, in some religious circles, demonic possession is still considered a reasonable explanation for mental illness. The page I found was basically a diagnosing mental illness. summary of a chapter in a book called So let’s take a look at what Strength For His People by Steven Waterhouse has to say about how to Waterhouse, the pastor at Westcliff differentiate between schizophrenia and Bible Church in Texas. The church’s demonic possession. website describes the book as “a Biblical He conveniently breaks the perspective on mental illnesses and other distinction into six factors. possessed? Is it the same pattern for family problems”. people of different religions? What Waterhouse has a Doctor of Ministry Factor 1: Attraction vs Aversion religion sort of demons possess a Buddhist, an from Dallas Theological Seminary and a According to Waterhouse, possessed atheist, or a Muslim? Is religious belief Master of Theology in Hebrew and Greek people can’t stand talking about Christ, correlated with mental illness? So many from Capital Seminary near Washington but mentally ill people are fine with questions. DC., as well as undergraduate degrees it – in many cases, even enthusiastically in social from Spring Arbor devout. If the affected person is Factor 2: Irrational speech vs rational University and Cornerstone University comfortable when the discussion turns speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, so he seems to Jesus, doesn’t object to an exorcism, Waterhouse says “In New Testament adequately qualified to be a church or shows a keen interest in religion, then accounts involving demons, the demons pastor and a social scientist. His interest demonic possession is to be ruled out. spoke in a rational manner. Untreated in mental health stems largely from his Earlier in the chapter, the author people with schizophrenia will often experience with his brother, who was describes the behaviour of his brother speak in nonsense and jump rapidly diagnosed with schizophrenia in his teens. during a schizophrenic episode. He between unrelated topics.” I’m certain that Waterhouse’s says, “I saw my brother ripping up He says that in cases where the intentions are good, and he only wants a Bible and smashing Christian wall affected person makes sense, we should to help people to reconcile their belief decorations.” lean towards demonic involvements. in supernatural beings and the hardship This seems to contradict his assertion This seems ridiculously simplistic. If of mental illness. He has first-hand that people with schizophrenia are the words don’t make sense, the patient experience of living with and caring friendly to Jesus. is sick. If they do make sense, the for a seriously ill person, and wants to But that’s not the only problem with patient is possessed. And what text does provide support for others going through this point. It fails to take into account the author refer to for his diagnostic the same experience. But if, as they say, the person’s religious leanings before standard? The New Testament of the the road to Hell is paved with good they started showing symptoms. Do Bible. intentions, this guy is headed southward. people who have no religion suddenly I don’t know much about psychiatry, I have no doubt religion provides become religious when they become but I’m pretty sure the Bible has been many troubled people and their families mentally ill, or suddenly become superseded as a diagnostic tool. with great comfort, but it has no place in hostile towards religious figures when 42 The Skeptic September 16

Factor 3: Ordinary Learning vs taking over someone’s body. parasite? That’s hardly going to improve Supernatural Knowledge So, if someone is truly possessed, your mood. And when an exorcism When you’re a demon taking up they’re unlikely to admit it, which leaves inevitably fails to rid you of your inner residence in a terrestrial host, you have it up to observers to judge whether or turmoil, what then? Finding out you’re the S the ability to communicate through not demonic possession is the cause possessed is bad – discovering relief is ’ the body you’ve possessed. As a result, of their behaviour. And surely, only impossible can only increase distress, DEVIL WORK possessed people may be able to express observers who already consider demonic confusion and fear. knowledge and display abilities of which possession a possibility are likely to Why do demons even need to they have no prior learning. decide that someone is possessed. How come into it? Believers seem to be able Waterhouse says “Those with a this distinction is helpful to people with to explain other bad things without mental illness have no such ability to mental illness escapes me completely. resorting to evil spirits. Some hardships know facts that they have not acquired are even attributed to God himself. by normal means of learning.” Factor 6: The Effect of Therapy If fire, flood, famine and flesh-eating The examples provided in the book This factor states “If prayer solves viruses can be part of God’s plan, why are clairvoyance and xenoglossy, or the problem, then it was probably not mental illness? Why is that left to the ability to speak in a language not not schizophrenia. If medicine helps demons? known by the speaker. The author alleviate the problem, it was not demon Sky Daddy seems comfortable doesn’t provide any references for these possession.” inflicting boils and blindness and examples, so we are left to rely on his Again, I completely agree with these botulism, but outsources brainwork to assurance that they actually happen. statements. Beelzebub. It doesn’t make sense. I agree that if prayer solves a I don’t see why modern psychiatry Factor 4: Normal vs Occultic Phenomena problem, then that problem was not can’t exist within a religious framework. Waterhouse says “There is an aspect to schizophrenia. It probably wasn’t a It’s a long time since I believed in demon activity that is just plain spooky.” broken leg, cystitis or world poverty God and Jesus. But even in my happiest, No argument from me there. either. In fact, prayer has a pretty poor clappiest Christian days, I still thought He goes on to say “If there are record for fixing things, statistically humans’ ability to think and learn and occurrences of poltergeists, levitations, speaking. Relying on the effects of prayer analyse our world was part of the big trances, telepathy (and these cannot be to alleviate someone’s real and immediate guy’s long-term plan. The idea that some ruled out as being optical illusions or suffering is pretty irresponsible. If of us could study humans closely enough fraudulent displays), then one is not praying is your thing, to diagnose and dealing with ‘ordinary’ schizophrenia.” knock yourself out. treat mental illness, In a tidy example of circular But maybe also seek “ Finding out you’re and make life better reasoning, this factor essentially says professional advice. possessed with relief in a scientific way, that, if there are paranormal phenomena I also agree that if fit easily into my present, then something paranormal medicine helps alleviate impossible can only understanding of is going on. This factor relies on the the problem, it was not increase distress. what God wanted us presumption of demonic possession as demon possession. In ” to do. a possible diagnosis. At least he suggests fact, you could take But the idea that apparently paranormal phenomena medicine out of the equation altogether that some mental illness might still be could be optical illusions or fraud, but and I’d still be satisfied that demons thrown into the “possessed by a demon” he stops short of applying the same level were never involved. basket makes me shake my head in of scepticism to the idea of demonic Including the possibility of demonic disbelief. . possession itself. possession in any assessment of mental illness does nobody any good. References: Factor 5: The Claim to be Possessed If possession is assumed, effective Original page: http://mentalillnesspolicy.org/ This one makes a little sense. He says treatment can be delayed. In extreme coping/demonic-possession-mental-illness.html “Authors who have clinical experience cases, this could mean a rapid escalation Waterhouse’s book: http://tinyurl.com/phv2c8h both with demon possession and mental if the condition is left unchecked, which illness believe those who claim to be can be dangerous for the sufferer and This article first appeared on the Skeptic possessed are very likely not possessed.” for the people around them. Zone, August 2016, I completely agree that people A diagnosis of demonic possession www.skepticzone.tv who claim to be possessed probably could in fact be the trigger for aren’t. But that’s only because I don’t worsening symptoms. think demonic possession is real. Imagine being in a state of distress, About the author: Waterhouse’s reasoning is different. confusion or fear because of a mental Shelley Stocken is a He claims that demons are secretive illness, only to be told that your workplace training designer critters, and don’t like to brag about condition is the result of an evil spiritual and freelance writer. 0343 ARTICLE Classic Catches -Spiritualism Prison Escapades

With this Classic Catch article from 1988, Tim Mendham reads The Road to En-dor, the story of spirits, spooks and how to perform cold reading in a POW camp

letter to the editor published in the A last issue of The Skeptic [Winter 1988] referred in passing to a book called The Road to En-dor in reference to experiences of prisoners of war. This got our curiosity roused, and a little investigation brought the book to light. The Road to En-dor, by Welsh army officer Lt E.H. Jones, was first published in 1919 and is described in a later publisher’s blurb as “the most famous of the escape books of the First World War”. It is the escape technique in the book which is of particular interest to skeptics, as what began as a spiritualist game to amuse himself and confound his fellows in the Turkish prisoner-of-war camp of Yozgad became a convoluted and highly dangerous plan to effect the escape the letters by memory and with the of two prisoners - Jones himself and aid of some specifically placed notches Australian Lt C.W. Hill. - they could even perform with the suspicious medical and military minds. The plot centres on the use of a board turned upside-down). Eric Williams, author of that other makeshift ouija-board and the fostering The pair succeeded in hoodwinking famous POW book, The Wooden Horse, among their fellow prisoners and their the Turks (and many of their has said that “for sheer ingenuity, Turkish guards of the belief that the comrades) and even persuaded the persistence and skill” The Road to two men were really in touch with a camp’s Commandant that they could En-dor is second to none among spirit guide. The Spook, as they called discover buried treasure for him. such books, and that it is “the classic the guide (and very cantankerous it Their subsequent adventures in the of ‘escape by strategy’ as opposed to is, too), spelt out messages using the camp included feigned madness, treks ‘escape by tactics’.” ouija technique of an upturned glass in search of Armenian gold, battles Throughout the book, Jones moving back and forth between letters between conflicting spirits, many describes the increasingly sophisticated of the alphabet. Jones and Hill were patient hours spent spelling out long ploys used to convince their victims particularly impressive with the board, and often hilarious “messages from of the veracity of the spirit guides, as they were usually blindfolded during beyond”, and near death as they including challenges from unconvinced seances (having learnt the position of maintained their cover in the face of colleagues that would do proud a 44 The Skeptic September 16

Clockwise from far left: Lt EH Jones and his Australian colleague Lt CW Hill; mock psychic demonstration; and a ouija board (though not the original as used by Jones and Hill).

Prison modern day sceptic. Techniques such as palming, mind reading, thought transference and possession are also used. The book is also extremely Escapades interesting for the picture it gives of the willingness of victims to fall for what is seemingly the most transparent ruse. One passage in particular is a classic example of cold reading, the practice whereby the ‘psychic’ picks up clues We asked him to send someone from their subject and feeds back to the else. [Footnote: “The seance that victim information which is received follows is incidentally an example through very non-mystical ways. The of a conversation with a person still passage below falls early in the book, so alive, or, in the technical language as not to spoil the pleasure of anyone of the seance room, ‘still on this who wishes to follow up on what is side’.”] a highly recommended volume of “Who are you?” said Alec [one spiritualist chicanery. of Jones’ earlier collaborators]. As he spoke, the door opened and READ ON: Antony came in, and stood close to It was extremely interesting from a my side. psychological point of view to notice “I am Louise,” the board spelt how the basic idea that they were out. conversing with some unknown force I felt Antony give a little start as he tinged by pleasant companionship. seemed to throw men off their balance. read the message. Without a pause the Remembering this, I ventured to say Time and again the “Spook”, under Spook went on: more about Louise. Nothing could be one name or another, pumped the “Hello, Tony!” lost by risking it. sitter without the latter’s knowledge. “This is interesting,” said Tony. (That “You remember me, Tony?” asked It was amazing how many men gave was giveaway No 2.) “Go on, please. the Spook. themselves away, and themselves told Tell us something.” “I know two Louises,” said Tony, the story in their questions, which they I now knew that somewhere Tony cautiously. afterwards thought the Spook had told must have met a Louise. That was a “Ah! not the old one, mon vieux,” in his answers. I French name. So said the Spook. could quote many far as I knew he (Now this looks as if the Spook instances, but let “The willingness of had not served knew both, but a little reflection shows one suffice. As it victims to fall for what is in France. But that, given two Louises, one was quite concerns a lady, I he had served in probably older than the other.) shall depart from seemingly the most Egypt. One night, Antony was delighted. my rule, and call the transparent ruse. a month or so “Go on,” he said. “Say something.” officer concerned ” before, in talking “Long straight road,” said the Spook, “Antony”, which of Egyptian “trees, moonlight.” is neither his true name nor his scenery, he had mentioned a long “Where was that?” asked Tony. There nickname. straight road with an avenue of trees was a sharpness about this questioning One night we had been spooking for on either side that “looked spiffing by that showed he was hooked. some time. There was the usual little moonlight”, and ran for miles across “You know, Tony!” throng of spectators round the board, the desert. It had struck me at the time “France?” who came and went as the humour that there was nothing particularly “No, no, stupid! Not France! Ah, seized them. Our war-news Spook had ‘spiffing’ about the type of scenery you have not forgotten, mon cher, occupied the stage for the early part of described; nothing, at any rate, to rouse riding in moonlight, trees and sand, the evening, and had just announced the enthusiasm he had shown, and his and a straight road - and you and me his departure. roseate memory of it might have been and the moon.” 0345 ARTICLE Classic Catches -Spiritualism

Prison Tony. But Silas would not go. He asserted “Where are you now?” Tony Louise was in his charge. He would Escapades repeated, thinking, no doubt, of soft not tolerate these conversations with hands on his hair. doubtful characters. Tony could go to Continued... “Why did you not help me?” said hell for all he cared. He didn’t care two Louise. whoops if it was a scientific experiment “Look here, I want to make sure - and so forth and so on. “This is most interesting,” said who you are. Where are you now?” “One more question,” pleaded poor Antony. Then to the board: “Yes, I “Are you an unbeliever, Tony? C’est Tony, “and if she gets this right I must know, Egypt - Cairo.” moi, Louise, qui te believe. How does “Bravo! You know me. Why did you parle!” It was always amusing she pronounce the leave me? I am in trouble.” “Then tell me “ French word for This was cunning of the Spook. where you are,” to me to notice how men ‘yes’?” Tony must have left her, because he Tony persisted. had to have something This question, had come to Yozgad without her. “Oh dear, Tony, if genuine, again But Tony did not notice. He was too I told you I was material to question. gave a clue to the interested, and his memory carried him going back. I went ” answer. For it back to another parting. back!” showed she did not “You told me to go,” said Tony. “I “By Jove!” said pronounce it in the wanted to help” - which showed he Tony, “that settles it. ordinary way. And I hadn’t. Back to Paris?” felt prettv certain the “But you didn’t - you didn’t - you “I wish you question was genuine. didn’t!” said the Spook. were here,” sighed When a sitter is setting Tony ran his hand through his hair. poor Louise. “The a trap, his voice usually “This is quite right as far as it goes,” he American is not nice betrays him. It is either said, “but I want to ask a few questions - not nice as you, toneless, or the sham to make sure. May I?” Tony.” excitement in it is “Certainly,” said Doc and I. “American?” Tony exaggerated. Tony’s He turned to the board. (It was muttered. “Oh yes. voice was just right. So always amusing to me to notice how I say, what’s your I decided quickly not men had to have something material to address?” to fence, but to risk an question, and how they never turned The movement answer. to the Doc or me, but always to the of the glass changed The most probable board. Hence, I suppose, the necessity from a smooth glide change would be a V for ‘idols’ in the old days.) to the ‘slap-bang’ for the W sound, or “Have you gone ba---”. He checked style abhorred by all the W sound would himself and rubbed his chin. “No”, he of us. be entirely omitted. went on, “I won’t ask that.... Where are “Look here, young There was therefore a you now?” feller! You get off the pavement. I don’t choice of three sounds, “Ee”, “Vee” He had already, without knowing want you butting round here!” said the and “Evee”. The problem was to give it, answered his own question, but he glass. “I’m Silas P. Warner ...”. the questioner, without his realising must be given time to forget it. “Go away, Silas!” “Blast you, Silas!” it, a choice of all three sounds in one “Ah, Tony,” said Louise, “you were a “Get out of this!” “We don’t want to answer - he would be sure to choose dear! I did love so your hair.” talk to you, we want Louise!” An angry the one he was expecting. This was camouflage, but it pleased chorus rose from Matthews, Price and The glass wrote “E” and paused. the rest of the interested spectators. Tony beside me was breathing heavily. Silas had a nasty habit of butting in I gave him plenty of time to say “That’s where he was not wanted (always at right,” but as he didn’t the glass went crucial and exciting points) and was on - “V-E-E.” He could now choose unpopular. between Vee and Evee. “Evee!” said Tony. “That’s it exactly! Ye gods, she always said it that funny Above: The Road to En-dor, first published in way - evee, evee!” 1919 and still in print. He began to talk excitedly. Left: Turkish stamps postmarked Yozgad, After the seance, Tony took me the prison camp in Anatolia. aside and declared he had never seen 46 The Skeptic September 16

anything so wonderful in his life. He told me the whole story of Louise. How they rode together along the long, straight road near Cairo; how it was full moon, and there was an avenue of lebbak trees through which the silver light filtered down; and how at the end of the ride they parted. I don’t think anybody else was privileged to hear the whole story, but next day he told everybody interested that as soon as he came into the room the blessed glass said “Hello, Tony! I’m Louise.” If the reader will turn back a page or two he will see this is another instance of bad observation. The Spook said, “I’m Louise,” at which Antony started; and only then did the Spook say, “Hello, Tony!” Eighteen months later I sat, a free man, in Ramleh Casino at Alexandria. Opposite me, at the other side of the small round table, was one of the Yozgad converts to spiritualism. I had just told him all our work had been fraudulent, and I had quoted the Tony- Louise story to show how it was done. The Convert thought a moment. “Granted that Tony, by his start, provided the link between ‘Louise’ and himself,” he said, “there is still one thing to explain.” “What is that?” “What made you connect the long, straight road, and the trees, and the moonlight, with ‘Louise’?” “Well,” I said, “That, of course, was a mere shot in the dark - a guess.” The Convert smiled pityingly at me. “You call it guessing. Do you know what I think it was?” “No,” said I. Clearance Sale&H “Unconscious telepathy - you were + $7 P influenced by Antony’s thoughts.” $30 Is there any way of converting Be Quick- Limited Stocks believers? What is a man to say? . T-shirts

This Classic Catch article is reprint from SOLD OUT The Skeptic, Vol 8 No 3, Spring 1988

About the author: E H Jones (1883-1942) was a Welsh civil servant in Burma who enlised in the Indian Army before World War I. He was a prisoner-of-war from 1916-18. 47 REGULARS

The cycle of life THE MONSTER Monsters, mysteries and medicos. The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde is a novella first published in 1886 by And so it goes, the almost inevitable the Scottish author Robert Louis Stevenson realisation that all knowledge is (1850-1894, pictured centre left). It is about a London lawyer named Gabriel John Utterson who investigates connected and connectable. strange occurrences between his old friend, Dr Henry Jekyll and his evil alter ego Edward Hyde. The title has become a well-used phrase for someone’s dramatically changed personalities. Stevenson had long been intrigued THE CORRESPONDENT by the idea of how personalities can affect a human and how to incorporate the interplay of good and evil into a story. The link between Holmes and While still a teenager, he had developed a script for a play Bell was obvious to another writer about Deacon Brodie. who wrote to Doyle from his island home: “I hope you will allow me to offer you my compliments on your very ingenious and very interesting adventures of Sherlock Holmes. … Only the one thing troubles me: can this be my old friend Joe Bell?” In the local island tongue, the correspondent was called Tusitala, “teller of tales”. He was also composer of more than 100 musical pieces. Doyle planned to extend a September 1894 tour of America to meet up with the correspondent, but the latter died in December. Forty island chiefs carried his body to its resting place on Mount Vaea, Samoa. The What goes around ... correspondent was, of course, Robert Louis Stevenson. Source: altamarkings.blogspot. THE DOCTOR com.au Doyle met Bell (centre, far right) in 1877, and served as his clerk at the Royal Infirmary. Bell was personal surgeon to Queen Victoria duting her visits to Scotland. Doyle admitted that Holmes was loosely based on Bell and his observant ways. Bell was aware of this inspiration and took some pride in it. According to Irving Wallace (in an essay originally in his book The Fabulous Originals but later republished and updated in his collection The Sunday Gentleman) Bell was involved in several police investigations, such as the Ardlamont Mystery of 1893. He also gave his Island life - a writer, his family, analysis of the Jack the Ripper murders to Scotland Yard. various locals and someone who looks a lot like Queen Victoria. Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

48 The Skeptic September 16

THE BURGLAR THE MONSTER William ‘Deacon’ Brodie (1741- 1788 – pictured The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr centre as portayed in a BBC series) was a Scottish Hyde is a novella first published in 1886 by cabinet-maker, deacon of a trades guild, and Edinburgh city the Scottish author Robert Louis Stevenson councillor, who maintained a secret life as a burglar, partly for the (1850-1894, pictured centre left). It is about a London thrill, and partly to fund his gambling. Brodie used his daytime job lawyer named Gabriel John Utterson who investigates as a way to gain knowledge about the security mechanisms of his clients strange occurrences between his old friend, Dr Henry and to duplicate keys using wax impressions. He was caught, tried and Jekyll and his evil alter ego Edward Hyde. The title has hanged in 1788. Popular myth held that he had built the first gallows become a well-used phrase for someone’s dramatically in Edinburgh and was also its first victim. William Roughead in changed personalities. Stevenson had long been intrigued Classic Crimes says that, after research, he was sure that al- The lawyer Utterson is upset to by the idea of how personalities can affect a human and how though the Deacon may have had some hand in the design, see Dr Jekyll transform into Mr to incorporate the interplay of good and evil into a story. “It was certainly not of his construction, nor was he Hyde; a poster from the time of While still a teenager, he had developed a script for a play the first to benefit by its ingenuity.” about Deacon Brodie. publication of the book.

THE CRIMINOLOGIST William Roughead (pronounced Rockheed, 1870-1952) was a well known Scottish lawyer and amateur criminologist, as well as an editor and essayist on “matters crim- inous”. For almost 60 years he attended most of the noteworthy murder trials at the High Court of Justiciary in Scotland. He was an important early practitioner of the modern “true crime” literary genre. Perhaps Roughead’s greatest achievement was his analysis What goes around ... of Oscar Slater’s trial for the murder of the Glasgow spinster Marion Gilchrist in 1908. Roughead assis- THE WRITER ted Arthur Conan Doyle, Craigie Aitchison and Sir Arthur Ignatius Conan Doyle (1859- William Park for nearly 20 years exposing 1930) was a British writer and physician, who weaknesses in the Crown’s case and studied medicine at the University of Edinburgh. was cited as a witness in the He popularised the mystery of the Mary Celeste, and 1928 appeal. showed a great interest and belief in Spiritualism, psychic powers and, of course, the Cottingley ‘fairies’. He was a prolific writer whose works range across fantasy and science Sir Arthur fiction stories, plays, romances, poetry, non-fiction and historical novels, including his preferred work, The White Conan Doyle Company. But he’s most noted for creating the fictional with friend, detective Sherlock Holmes, a character that featured probably in 56 short stories and four novels. Holmes not the was partially modelled on Doyle’s former Hound of the university teacher Dr Joseph Bell (1837-1911). Baskervilles. Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

49 REVIEWS

that “nearly all extant placental mammal orders, Crisis points including our own, the Primates, have no more than forty-four teeth, and despite the many dental adaptations and loss of teeth, most placental Evolution: Still a Theory in Crisis mammals possess no more than four molars, By Michael Denton three premolars, one canine and three incisors”. The reference for this is Wikipedia! Actually, Discovery Institute Press, US$24.95 the basic formula for placentals is three molars, four premolars; it is marsupials that have four molars, three premolars. A small error, one might n 1985, Michael Denton think, but it is pivotal to his argument about the Iwrote Evolution: a Theory in mammalian Bauplan. Crisis. Given the title, one might On page 27 he writes: “In this new have expected that the whole book, I will argue that nature is the still the structure and direction of biology fundamentally discontinuous system that (including biogeography, taxonomy, I described in Evolution [as he refers to his comparative anatomy, ecology, previous book throughout], consisting of a embryology, bacteriology and other limited set of distinct stable material forms – disciplines), as well as geology, the Types.” Like some other Intelligent Design palaeontology, geophysics, astronomy proponents, he is prepared to envisage change and the philosophy of science, would within a Type, but not between them. have changed out of all recognition. His hero in this is Richard Owen, the I’m here to tell you that none of that undoubtedly brilliant comparative anatomist of happened. the 19th century who, out of jealousy of Darwin Thirty years have now gone by; (and for no other discernable reason), proposed a nothing daunted, Michael Denton theory of unconnected archetypes. Denton takes has tried again. Apparently, evolution the archetype (Bauplan) idea further back, to is still a theory in crisis. Under the the early 19th century French biologist Étienne principle that wishing a thing to be so makes it Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire and his debates with his so, creationists, of course, agree with him, as do contemporary Georges Cuvier. He claims that his present colleagues at the Discovery Institute it was a structure-versus-function debate, and in Seattle. He admits, on page 286 of this new so it was in part, but it was much more than book, that the original book was greeted with that. Cuvier, known as “the pope of bones” and “a sea of outrage”; possibly this was one reason the Father of Palaeontology, believed in what he for his relocation from the University of Otago’s called “Revolutions of the Globe”: that the good Biochemistry Department to a more congenial Lord had created a series of organisms which neo-creationist atmosphere. flourished for a while, then he junked most of One reason for this outrage was that his them and created a new series; these in turn he 1985 book was such lousy science. He paraded junked and created a new series … and so on. his ignorance of what evolutionary biology is Crucially, in Cuvier’s debates he argued for all about. He showed, for example, an almost fixity of type, whereas Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, a wilful ignorance of the fossil record, and an pupil of the great Lamarck, was arguing for… incomprehension of what genetics, especially the evolution! I feel that this is not really what ‘molecular clock’, is all about. So we are justified Denton wanted. in asking whether the past thirty years have (Incidentally, Étienne had a son, Isidore, taught him anything. who continued his father’s evolutionary ideas; The answer is yes, in some fields, but he has Denton’s text suggests that he does not realise placed limits on what he wants to learn and on that they were father and son, and this is the conclusions that he wants to draw from it. made clear in the index, where they appear as And there are still mistakes. One might say that, “Geoffroy, Étienne” and “Saint-Hilaire, Isidore in attempting such a vast coverage – the origins of Geoffroy” respectively.) eukaryote cells, flowering plants, the pentadactyl And so to the Baupläne, the Types. Eukaryote (five-toed) limb, wings, feathers, language – there animals are characterised by having a nucleated are bound to be some mistakes; but when one is cell. Denton cannot envisage how this arose, but aiming to make a case against the basic unifying once in place it has characterised all eukaryotes principle of biology, one should be very sure of ever since. Mammals expel the nuclei from their one’s facts. For example, on page 50, we learn red blood cells, posing “a severe mix of challenges 50 The Skeptic September 16

to functional incrementalism” (p138). significance in the fish-amphibian transition, Then, “no plausible Darwinian narrative and he seems unaware of the crucial difference can be invented to account for the origin between the general “finny fish” and the and diversification of the angiosperms” crossopterygian or “lobe-finned fish”. [flowering plants] (p136). There remains a He is still fixated on the existence of gaps in the gap, “a significant break” (p165), between a fossil record, and is sometimes oblivious of the fish’s fin and an amphibian’s five-toed limb fact that many of the gaps that used to exist before (each of them an unchanging Bauplan), have now been filled, and he sometimes simply concerning which he says “fin rays would wishes them away (such as in his outrageously have to have been lost before the autopod superficial treatment of the fossil record of replaced them”, citing a 2013 paper by Yano whales). The God of the Gaps is alive and well in and Tamura. I was so surprised by this last Denton’s universe – where there seem at present claim that I looked up the paper, and they to be gaps, that is where you insert your creative say nothing of the sort. He does cite the act, as he admits at one point. And he is prone to intermediate fish/amphibian Tiktaalik and statements like “An adaptive scenario to account the early amphibian Acanthostega, which has for the reduction of the post-dentary bones [in not five but eight digits, but skates over their the well-documented transition from “reptile” to mammal!] is hard to envisage” (p240) and the above-mentioned one on angiosperms, a style of ‘logic’ which Richard Dawkins has dubbed the Argument from Personal Incredulity. What do we make of these claims, rooted sometimes in ignorance, sometimes in the misapprehension that absence of evidence equals evidence of absence? Certainly, there is a school of thought among evolutionary biologists that Darwinism is insufficient to account for evolutionary change, but they are talking about neutral evolution, gene exchange between bacterial species, virogenes in eukaryotes, self-organisation in development, that sort of thing – not about the origin de novo of structural innovations. Especially not of teleology: he concedes (his word) that the consequences of his view might be that “the laws of nature are ‘intelligently’ fine- tuned to generate the set of life forms on earth up to and including mankind”, before immediately backtracking (p281). I’m afraid we need a more incisive analysis. I was going to say “in depth”, but in Denton’s book the depth is there alright - merely it is there where it is not relevant, and it is missing where it would be useful to demonstrate the origin of his Baupläne. Evolution is not a theory in crisis, let alone “still” a theory in crisis; it needs more than neo- Darwinism, sure, but we have thought so for more than half a century and no-one seems to think this means any sort of crisis.

- Reviewed by Colin Groves 51 REVIEWS Ethnography Please to remember

The Memory Code building materials took their toll. By Dr Lynne Kelly As of 2013, England alone has roughly 20,000 ancient sites designated as Scheduled Allen & Unwin, A$33.00 Monuments, and there are formal and informal moves to maintain as many of them as possible. Under the Ancient Monuments and here is a huge number of Archaeological Areas Act 1979, “It is a criminal Tbuildings and constructions offence to demolish, destroy, damage, remove, that are readily identifiable around repair, alter or add to a Scheduled Monument the world. Mention the Taj Mahal, … unless prior consent has been obtained from the Empire State Building, the Eiffel the Secretary of State in the form of Scheduled Tower, the , and Monument Consent.” you’re pretty well confident that most There have been several goes at returning people recognise them, even if they Stonehenge to something approaching its former aren’t all sure where they are. glory. Up until 1918, it was actually in private The ancient world has its own hands, though under preservation orders, and share of instant recognition – the over the last century some stones have been Parthenon, the Great Wall of China, lifted, straightened and reinforced. the Coliseum, the Sphinx, the Research into its construction continues apace, Pyramids and Stonehenge. with recent discoveries of further archaeological Stonehenge is a particular artefacts in the area. In 2014, the University of favourite site for this reviewer. I Birmingham announced the discovery of as many was fortunate enough to visit it as seventeen new monuments, revealed nearby before they closed off the monument itself to the - Late Neolithic monuments that resemble prying eyes and prising hands of the thousands Stonehenge, suggesting a complex of numerous of visitors it attracted. (You can still get in now, related monuments. but you have to be part of a tour or a Druid.) (One of the more curious factoids about Stonehenge as it was In those days, and I’m talking 40 years ago Stonehenge is that Charles Darwin dabbled in in 1877 and, below, here, you could walk around the trilithons and archaeology there in 1877, experimenting with restoration of one of the stones, touch the surface, see the marks, measure the rate at which remains sink into the earth lintels in 1919. out the distances, and no doubt feel the energy for his book The Formation of Vegetable Mould emanating from every Through the Action of Worms.) rock and pebble. Well, But with the high profile comes the weirdos it was 40 years ago, hopping onto the bandwagon, pushing their and energies were a own brands of ‘science. In fact, with regard to lot more feelable then. the Great Pyramid and Stonehenge, there are Of course, the probably no buildings that are more subject to UK and parts of wacky theories. Europe are rife Everything from giant energy sources to with Palaeolithic, alien landing spots, Biblical predictors, musical Neolithic, megalithic instruments, etc etc, are casually heaped onto the and other lithic buildings with book after book espousing one leftovers - stone “shocking discovery” or “truth revealed” after the circles, wood circles, other. mounds, tumuli, Erich von Daniken mentions both, along barrows, hillside with Easter Island, Nazca lines and Australian carvings. You can only Aborigine legend in Chariots of the Gods?. (You imagine what these have to love that question mark – von Daniken would have been like played on the idea of a mystery solved, not to when everything was mention a bet each way on whether it was true in place, before the or not, with his answer being yes, and ours being ravages of time and decidedly not.) the locals’ need for The plethora of theories on Stonehenge, The Skeptic September 16

as in all areas of the paranormal, rely for their know anything, to speculate on such matters was entry into the field largely on the inability or … totally unscientific.” unwillingness of scientists and researchers to be And this is where Dr Lynne Kelly’s book 100 per cent definitive. comes in. John Fowles, author of The Magusand Kelly is a science writer and an Honorary The French Lieutenant’s Woman, is a bit of a Research Associate at La Trobe University. But mystic himself – or at least one who likes to even more than that, she is a noted Skeptic, be ‘one-with-nature’. In his book The Enigma author of The Skeptic’s Guide to the Paranormal. of Stonehenge, he suggests that Her other books include a “The very – and quite proper popular text on Spiders: Learning – caution of modern scientists to Love Them, matched by a in their conclusions about the fondness for spider jewellery, and ancient realities of Stonehenge she does a mean impersonation of effectively leaves a huge empty a psychic, to boot. space, a field for speculation, in The Memory Code is her latest the less scientific mind. In this book, covering her research into Stonehenge remains almost like a non-literate cultures, and is a lay blank sheet of paper – in a world version of a more academic tome, Lynne Kelly with some of where, in terms of knowledge, Knowledge and Power in Prehistoric her favourite objects, blank sheets become increasingly Societies, which came out last year. Scottish carved stone rare things.” On first glance you might be balls from the Hunterian Since Fowles’ book appeared worried by the book, as she covers Museum in the University in 1980, continued research has those same cultures that von of Glasgow. elicited much more about the Daniken referred to in Chariots of formation than was previously the Goods? – Stonehenge, Easter known or suspected. Island, Nazca, etc – and she talks about methods But it is the why as much as the how that of communicating information that are not intrigues most people. exactly traditional ways (but probably exactly Fowles describes a public meeting he attended traditional ways), methods shared in purpose while writing his book, “with a packed audience if not in detail by disparate cultures across the of several hundred people to hear the principal world and across times. living authority on Stonehenge, Prof Richard But keep in mind that Kelly is a Skeptic, and Atkinson [he died in 1994] give a lecture on the The Memory Codeis the result of real research and latest theories and discoveries concerning the far from ‘unscientific’. She has visited the sites she monument. We listened to an eminently lucid talks about, unlike von Daniken who just talks and clinical discourse on the most recent datings about them. She has taken part in archaeological of the major phases of building, on the results of digs, and has the sore back to prove it. the latest excavations. When this was done, the So what is she trying to prove? chairman, the equally authoritative Prof Stuart Kelly says she is fascinated by the way Piggott, called for questions. There came some indigenous cultures encode knowledge without requests for various elucidations of technical writing, “especially the pragmatic stuff - points, which were given. Then a young man animals, plants, medical knowledge including stood up at the back. a pharmacopoeia, laws, navigation, genealogy, “‘Would Prof Atkinson care to say anything history, land and resource rights plus all sorts of about the peoples who built the three main ethical metaphors”. phases – their culture and religion?’ She says she is “constantly astounded by the “He might as well have asked a synod of range and brilliance of the memory techniques Methodist ministers whether they would historic indigenous cultures have used to consider publishing a new edition of De Sade’s memorise a vast amount of information when 120 Days of Sodom – or the Department of they can’t write it down. the Environment how he should apply to turn “I realised that this understanding offered a Stonehenge into a disco. All such speculation new theory on the purpose of Stonehenge and was futile, the wicked fellow was peremptorily many other archaeological sites.” told. Such information was strictly dependent on The overseas edition of the book has the written records, the Stonehenge people did not subtitle “The Secrets of Stonehenge, Easter have writing, we know nothing, we would never Island and Other Ancient Monuments”. This 53 REVIEWS Ethnography

These are not necessarily totally new observations. So-called memory magicians use clues and tricks to take on board information and then feed it back later, like remembering the names of everyone in an audience. The difference is that the methods she describes are widespread, and cover a lot more information than the names of a bunch of people – literally thousands of animals, weather patterns, places and people, history, myth and on and on. The secret is “orality” – oral transmission that is the supposed original means of retelling Homeric tales, and is certainly the means for many Islamic students of remembering the Koran. Only this is bigger; much bigger – “encyclopaedic” she calls it. Kelly says the book “is the result of a decade’s obsessive work. I have never written anything as important as this before and know that this topic will occupy me for the rest of my life.” She has spoken about it at Skeptics’ A short northerly walk of gives the impression that it proposes the sort of conventions in Melbourne and Brisbane, and will 60km links Stonehenge universal theory that von Daniken was purporting do so soon at a dinner in Sydney and then back to Avebury, with its to present. The local edition is subtitled with to another convention in Melbourne later this very clear ditch. It was something more detailed: “The traditional year. On its publication, The Memory Code was a centre for crop circles Aboriginal memory technique that unlocks the the number one scientific book in Australia. in the early part of this secrets of Stonehenge, Easter Island and ancient For an obsessive stone circler like your century. monuments the world over.” reviewer – who has visited many of the Many Australians remember being taught megalithic and stone age sites she refers to – this the concept of Aboriginal message sticks, bits of is fascinating stuff. It is encouraging to note that wood carved with angles and dots to spread the both of us share a high regard for a particularly word between neighbouring tribes. interesting stone circle – and possibly more But The Memory Codeis much more than that. interesting than Stonehenge – and that is the What it is about – without giving away very large circle of Avebury a few miles north the breadth of detail she covers – is that non- of its more famous colleague. (So big, in fact, literate cultures must have used some methods that part of the village of Avebury lies within its to store and communicate the vast amounts of perimeter.) knowledge they needed to survive. Kelly’s theory The Memory Code answers questions, and involves physical memory aids (carved stones, raises even more. But what it stresses throughout sticks, bracelets – rosary beads for real world is that these were and are practical, observable, knowledge rather than superstition), dance, song repeatable methods for retaining, recalling and (drawing on Catholicism again, sort of a Stations communicating information. As if to prove it, of the Cross that the leaders and knowledge Kelly herself uses a version of the technique holders used in ceremonies to call up and share to memorise much information. On a recent information, albeit possibly for initiates only). edition of ABC Radio’s Conversations with In a non-literate and non-consumer culture, Richard Fidler, she demonstrated her ability to knowledge truly is power. name the countries of the world in order of their She draws on Aboriginal songlines, the ditches population. around megaliths (as opposed to the central It works, she says. And the concept fills in areas) where acoustics and movement and some of that ‘empty space’ that Fowles was locations were part of the recalling and story- concerned with, and that puts a few lines onto telling ceremonies, Pueblo Indian pathways, his blank sheet of paper. Nazca lines – all ways of remembering lots of And all of that without once resorting to information of real practical value. Wikipedia or a smartphone. Or, as one reviewer called it, “What did nerds do before there were books, or even writing.” - Reviewed by Tim Mendham 5654 ARE YOU SKEPTICAL? Are reason, science, education, critical thinking and common sense important to you? Then you should subscribe to The Skeptic.

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Send to: The Skeptic PO Box 20, Ph: (02) 8094 1894 —Mobile: 0432 713 195 Beecroft, NSW 2119 Fax: (02) 8088 4735—email: [email protected] FORUM Skepticism Living the Skeptical life In which noted skeptic Richard Saunders ponders opinion is sought after in the media, my face is used to promote conventions and meetings. My on the meaning of it all. face is on the dartboard of many a psychic and alt med practitioner. My skeptical - or should I say questioning hat does it mean to “Live a Skeptical - life began in the 1970s when there was an W Life”? explosion of the paranormal, or at least that’s Before I cover what living a skeptical life might the way it seemed. Uri Geller was stunning the mean for people in general, let me at least try and world’s press with magic tricks, UFOs were give you some idea of what it means to me. posing a real danger to airlines (there were just First of all, I have been and still am a “Bigfoot so many of them buzzing about!) and Bigfoot Skeptic”. This is a relatively new term and was going to be caught and proved real “any day sums me up rather well. For those who are not now”. familiar with it, it means more or less someone As a boy in his early teens, I lapped it up and who is interested in investigating claims of the believed it all. Why? Mainly, I would suggest, it paranormal such as , talking to was because that’s the way the media presented the dead, new age energies, strange creatures. these stories. There was also the great allure of I only have a passing interest in gods and knowing the unknown or reliving the mystery, religion, and by and large I leave that topic to of having the inside knowledge that was far more other people who find it far more interesting and exciting. That’s what sold newspapers and got important. There are cases where I do stray into bums on seats to watch TV shows. It was, in those waters… creationism, faith healing and essence, using our own curiosity against us. claims of such things as weeping statues. There TV shows like In Search Of... gave the is some unrest within the movement from those impression, at least to a young boy, of being who regard people like me as being somehow factual documentaries. There was also a sitcom less than worthy because I don’t attack religion based on a woman with paranormal powers as such. I find this a great pity. called The Girl with Something Extra. Movies I am grateful that I am known for many like Close Encounters of the Third Kind rode the things, TV, books, podcasting and even origami, UFO craze like a space probe gaining speed from but above all I am known for being a skeptic. a ‘slingshot’ manoeuvre, propelling the idea of My skeptical life is just that, a life or a life style. visiting aliens to greater heights. All this was a It’s not a hobby, not a recreational interest, it’s reflection of the mood and expectation of the A Bigfoot Skeptic talking largely who I am and what I do. times. a walk in the park? So Skepticism has taken me all over the world, I remember someone gave me a book about what’s wrong with the from Alaska to New Zealand to Norway to the UFOs. Inside it had a form that one could fill paranormal? Czech Republic and many other countries. My out to file a report about any sightings of strange objects or lights in the sky. (Needless to say any such objects must be UFOs, and by that I mean alien spaceships.) Questions included: what time of day or night was the sighting; at what angle was the object; were you alone; can you draw a picture of what you saw; and so on. I copied the form by typing it out on a real typewriter, on special paper that then could be used in the printing machine at the office in my father’s church, normally used for printing church newsletters and such. [Probably Gestetner paper – Ed.] I then sought out anyone I could who “saw something” in the sky and had them fill out a form. I cannot remember how many people filled them out, and I guess after a time they were filed somewhere in my room. But I was in a way investigating, even though in a very unskeptical way. The Skeptic September 16

ANY DAY NOW couldn’t put it down. And for someone who did Any day now we would catch that Bigfoot; any not enjoy the act of reading that much, that was day now the aliens would land and greet us; quite something. I soon sought out other books any day now we would learn how to unlock the by Randi and read them all. The Truth about hidden potential of our minds and learn how to Uri Geller was quite an eye opener. (In the early bend spoons. (I did eventually learn how to bend 1970s I and my brother hid the spoons from the spoons - among aboput half a dozen variations - kitchen drawer as we were lead to believe Geller and it seems I found the one true method.) would bend them over the TV!) By the end of the 1970s, despite no Bigfoots My interest was growing and in 1999 I in zoos or UFOs on the White House lawn, I decided to fly to to attend my first was still happy to accept the truth of all manner Australian Skeptics (or any skeptics) Convention. of strange claims. I did not even think of them I really didn’t know anyone apart from Barry as merely claims as, in my world, they were very Williams whom I’d met once or twice, but real. Then, in 1980 something came along that nevertheless I enjoyed the event immensely. I was started to steer my mind, my endless curiosity, so interested in the talks and the people I met. in a better direction. One night the ABC aired a Not long after I joined the newly formed James TV show called Cosmos. Randi Educational Foundation. Stars, a spaceship, planets, time travel, ancient A year later and I couldn’t wait to attend discoveries ... it ticked all the boxes and excited the 3rd World Skeptics Convention in Sydney, the same parts of my mind that had until then a joint venture with the Committee for the (and I must admit continued to excite for some Scientific Investigation of Claims of the time) had been taken over with paranormal Paranormal (CSICOP, now abbreviated to CSI.) imaginings. As I stood outside the venue waiting to get in, a Around the same time another TV show car pulled up and out stepped James Randi. Oh. appeared that also had a huge impact on me. This time I was star struck. Wow … James Randi! It was about the testing of a group of water Within a couple of months, after telling Barry diviners and featured a certain magician by the Williams I could digitise all the back issues of name of James Randi. In fact the documentary The Skeptic, I was invited onto the committee. was called, with great imagination, James Randi In the years since I have learnt so much in Australia. about science, critical thinking, tricks of the To be honest I watched this documentary paranormal, the psychology and mechanics with the same uncritical attitude as I watched the behind so-called psychic readings, arguments paranormal ones. The test was straightforward, from creationists and so on. I have met many of the conclusions clear and I just accepted it. What what they call the “Skepfamous” and travelled all struck me most was near the end, after all the over the world giving talks. diviners had failed, Randi asked them if they still Enjoyable as it is, it has not always been easy, believed in divining. To my utter amazement with battles lost, endless frustration with believers they all said they did. I just could not believe it. and some skeptics too. People are people and How on earth, after they all so clearly failed and I have seen how some whom I thought were divining was shown not to work, could they just bastions of reason have turned into anything but. keep on believing in it? Little did I know that in I have also seen infighting and how some people the years ahead I would see this fascinating ability need to tell the world via blogs and FaceBook of the human mind, this disconnect from reality, their every thought on the character and again and again and again. motivations, perceived or otherwise, of others in the movement. THE SKEPTICAL LIFE But harking back to what I said earlier about And there matters rested more or less for the being on the dartboard of various and next 12 years or so. I got on with school, jobs so on. I try, I know I don’t always succeed, but and so on. At one stage in the early 90s my I try to be reasonable and polite to those on the brother starting subscribing to The Skeptic and other side. This can work, but not always, for no I would read those issues. But I cannot say for matter how nice and reasonable and funny I am, sure when things really started to click with there are some who hate me like a zealot hates a me. It’s all lost a bit in the mists of the past. heretic, because to them I am a heretic. At the Sometime in the 1990s James Randi gave a end of the day what I am saying to these people talk in Sydney which I enjoyed; I even got his is “You are simply wrong” and no one likes to be autograph. I bought a copy of Flim-Flam and I told that. 57 FORUM Skepticism + Archaeology

continued … should at least know why, and that means not only a grasp on the physics but also learning the trick. Well, let me There was one occasion many years ago (I explain that a little forget where), when I was a guest at a public better. What I usually outreach event, hosted by a local skeptical group. mean is “If you think I was less than impressed when one of the local that XYZ have been members answered a question from the public proven, then you are along these lines. “Ghosts? No, we don’t believe in wrong”. I normally ghosts. We think it’s all bullshit! There’s no such don’t say “XYZ does thing.” While ultimately there almost certainly are not work”, however no ghosts, the answer and the way he put it made I am reaching that me cringe. Yes, he was skeptical of ghosts but in point with things like an almost cartoon or stereotypical way. We should homeopathy. But no never be skeptical of something unless we have matter how I say it, good reason to be. many people take it to In recent times I have seen what changes can be mean “Skeptics don’t made with people like Ken Harvey, who take the and won’t believe skeptical concerns to the people who can make in XYZ no matter a difference … government. We can shout all we Uri Geller - a man, what. You are closed-minded and that is what all like, we can get the media interested (sometimes a spoon, a cutlery skeptics are.” that works, sometimes not) but in the end we are industry conspiracy Oh the irony. In my many years in this game not the police. How many times has someone said I have seen so many times what I might call the to me “You skeptics should do something about distorted mirror effect when believers impose XYZ”, as if we are the police and storm in and fix on us the very characteristics they themselves things. display. It is the believers who are in fact closed- But I digress. Living a skeptical life is not what minded. Once they latch onto a belief, be that our opponents might imagine it to be - that is creationism or reiki healing or tarot cards or walking around being skeptical of everything all numerology or water divining, then woe betide the time, being unwilling to believe in anything, any skeptic who dares question let alone provide doubting everything, being a naysayer just for the evidence to the contrary. sake of being a naysayer. I have also heard many times that we skeptics Living a skeptical life means being open, are “scared of the unknown” and that is why we being interested, but knowing that humans have will not accept whatever the belief system is being shortcomings in reasoning abilities and knowing pushed. I find this galling at times as I certainly how the method of science helps us to overcome do not fear the unknown, unlike some ‘psychics’ those shortcomings. Living a skeptical life means I’ve met who fear to the point of being terrified knowing your topic and knowing when you don’t going into what they consider a haunted house. know your topic. Living a skeptical life means I, on the other hand, would have no fear about saying “I don’t know” rather than trying to make spending the night in “the most haunted house up something on the spot. in Australia”, wherever the hell that might be. Living a skeptical life also means, no matter how hard you try and no matter how much you BEING A SKEPTIC know your topic, you will be wrong from time So what does being a skeptic mean for you? to time, you will blunder in your answers. Living I guess I’m really not your average skeptic. a skeptical life means you accept this, even if it’s Whatever being a skeptic is, it’s a major part of disconcerting and unpleasant. my life, unlike what I might call the everyday Lastly, and as I say to the media and students, skeptic, someone who has an interest in the living a skeptical life means I get to investigate topic, likes to read our magazine or even enjoys a monsters, ghosts, psychics and UFOs. Sometimes Skeptics in the Pub get-together. it’s like I’m still 15 years old. I really like those people, they are fun to be with and have a similar outlook to me. But I Richard Saunders would hope that each one spends time to study Dulwich Hill, NSW the topics they are skeptical of. If, for example, one is skeptical of spoon bending, then one 58 The Skeptic September 16

Pharaohs – the reasons why

In which a question is asked about a pyramid article, photographed the building from above and it and the author responds at length shows that the four sides are, in fact, not straight. They are slightly concave! Is there some mystical reason for this and as it is a recent finding have have recently read an article called “Building the Egyptologists come up with an explanation? I IPharaoh’s Mountains” in The Skeptic [March must admit I’m very ‘skeptical’ about Egyptology. 2016]. I must admit this was borrowed from one Also in the same issue, starting on page 11, of your subscribers and it’s the first time I’ve seen there is an article about vaccinations. Again I this magazine or even heard of your group. feel an attack of skepticism coming on. Can one Could you tell me the point of the above work be vaccinated for this? I don’t wish to get into please? Is it to ridicule those who believe in ‘aliens’ medical argument here but I would like to pose or is it intended to educate? What is the author a question. Why does vaccination of adults or skeptical about exactly? children suddenly make them safe to be around? [The article was a Class Catch reprint of a piece In the 19th century, a lady nicknamed Typhoid by Barry William that originally appeared in The Mary travelling around the USA infected over 50 Skeptic, Autumn 1995 Vol 15, No 1 – Ed] people with typhoid fever, many of whom died. I know from my research that the internal Mary lived into her 90s without ever acquiring pyramid drawing in page 25 is probably based on the condition. Apparently her natural immune the claims of Egyptologists, so why does the author system saved her. So when someone is vaccinated, accept this as fact; ie why no skepticism here? giving them presumably artificial immunity to a My understanding is that many qualified people particular condition, what’s to stop them infecting now question the ideas of many labelled items. another person much like Mary above? The King’s and Queen’s chambers, and the ‘air’ In any case, what about all the bacteria we carry shafts, for example have been explained differently on the outside of our bodies and our clothing, or with many questioning the real purpose of these on anything else we are carrying? Can someone pyramids at Giza. give me a sensible answer? I understand many As far as I know, the claim that the largest of the dangerous viruses can’t be passed between pyramid was a monument to Khufu is based on people since they can’t survive in open air; they very flimsy evidence. It’s a bit like claiming that the would need to be virtually injected to be effective! Sydney Harbour Bridge was a monument to Don (An animal bite would be an injection.) Bradman because they found his statue 300km to If nothing else your article has made me think the west. I believe the evidence is that dubious. and write this letter. Thanks. I think there is every reason to be skeptical. By the way; recently a pilot flying over the large Graeme Clinch pyramid of Giza, just at the right time of day, Willoughby, NSW

Barry Williams responds:

raeme Clinch asks a number of questions reprinted 2012, Vol 32, No 4] which looked at Gabout my article “Building Pharaoh’s the whole range of curious New Age notions that Mountains”. I am happy to answer as many of had adhered to the concept of the pyramid shape, these questions as I can. with particular reference to the Great Pyramid “What is the point of the article and what is the of Khufu at Giza. I doubt if there is another author skeptical about?” Graeme asks. I’ll try to be structure on Earth that has attracted anywhere as brief as I can in my response, though brevity is near as much speculation as the Great Pyramid, not my long suit. some of it informed but a huge amount that is That article follows from a previous article not. In the absence of compelling evidence, there “Pyramids, Pyramyths and Pyramidiots” I is nothing at all wrong with speculating about had written in 1988 [The Skeptic, Vol 8, No 3, the construction of the pyramids or anything 59 FORUM Archaeology

continued … it might be accepted. As I was also the editor at the time, my confidence was well-founded. Graeme then queries why I accepted the drawing of the internal structures of the Great else to do with this ancient civilisation, but the Pyramid, opining that it was “probably based on speculation must be based on all the evidence that the claims of Egyptologists” and he is dead right. does exist. That is what professionals do and far It was taken from The Pyramids of Egypt by IES too many amateurs (of which I am one) fail to. Edwards, the late Keeper of Egyptian Antiquities As a result of that article I had received over at the British Museum, which is widely regarded time much correspondence from people who as the best overall general description of the had hypothesised uses for the Great Pyramid that Egyptian pyramids. But very similar drawings are differed radically from the generally accepted one shown in most scholarly works on the topic. I as a tomb for the Fourth Dynasty king, Khufu. admit to a little puzzlement as to why he should A few were thoughtfully presented and had some be surprised that I would rely on specialists in the plausible ideas but the preponderance by far field - would it have been better to rely on the were well into the stratospheric heights of Cloud claims of orthopaedic surgeons or jockeys? Cuckoo Land. I think my favourite one was that It is quite correct to regard Egyptology (or the Pyramid was in fact a giant water pump, archaeology generally) as an inexact science unlike, betraying a staggering lack of knowledge by the for example, particle physics. In fact Egyptology author of the actual construction of the pyramid. is only partly science, as well as partly history and Suffice to say that if somehow the comparatively a bunch of other disciplines. In physics a scientist minuscule empty spaces in the structure had been called Peter Higgs, in the 1960s, proposed a filled with water under pressure (how, I’m not particle called the Higgs Boson, based on his work sure) rather than acting as a pump it would have in the field. The next step was to spend some fifty in reality behaved like the world’s largest lawn years of research and $10-15 billion dollars to sprinkler. build a Large Hadron Collider and Bingo, there’s So I decided to write a follow-up article your Boson. Easy peasy. explaining what is generally known about that However, in the absence of a working time phase of Egypt’s long history, partly to dispel machine or finding a complete library of back the quite common notion that ancient people issues of the Aneb-Hetch (Gk. Memphis) Morning were somehow too thick to be able to build Herald it’s not so easy to find many of the hard- such magnificent structures. Quite clearly they and-fast facts about this ancient civilisation, so were not and the evidence abounds in all the we have to rely on the evidence that does exist magnificent structures that remain in Egypt today, and make rational deductions about what went of which the Great Pyramid is only one. Surely on. Based on that, it is proper to suppose that aliens could not have built all of them or someone the generally accepted story is a reasonable would have noticed and written approximation of the truth and, of course, new something down. I wrote evidence does produce modifications to that story, the article knowing that as it always has. editors of magazines were On the matter of the names of various parts always on the lookout of the Great Pyramid, they are used as shorthand for copy, with the only. It is a long time since anyone in the field has expectation that believed that the lower large chamber, the so-called ‘Queen’s Chamber’, was actually the tomb of the Pharaoh’s wife. Much the same with the ‘air shafts’. No one really knows what purpose they served and we may never know, but again it is reasonable to suppose they were there for some ritual and possibly practical reason. And it has been a long time since anyone believed that the pyramid was a ‘monument’ to Khufu. What we do know about Egyptian funeral rites makes it far more likely that it was intended to be his ‘house of eternity’ or burial site, just as the ‘official’ story has it. Certainly we have no title deeds to the pyramid naming Khufu as its owner, but sufficient 60 The Skeptic September 16

mystery, but it wasn’t. There are something like 200 pyramids that have been discovered in Egypt, built over a span of more than 500 years, most of which have some unique features. But the most relevant of these are those which preceded Khufu, which has the distinction of being the largest. His father, Snefru, built three pyramids (at least), all different, and whose total mass is greater than that of the Great Pyramid. Going farther back to Zoser who built the first pyramid and tracing through to Khufu and his successors Khafre and Menkaure, we can see evidence of how the Egyptians were learning, and learning very well, the trade of monumental building with stone, a trade which continued and improved through the great tombs and temples of later dynasties. Another theme that pervades the odder speculations is that today we could not reproduce the Great Pyramid, even using modern equipment which, if one cares to think about it for about a second, is patently absurd. We couldn’t lift the larger stones in the Great Pyramid to the height required? Upper estimates suggest these stones The Great Pyramid mentions of his name in the adjacent funerary weigh around 80 tonnes. The largest crane extant, of Khufu in a 19th complex and elsewhere have been found to make the Taisun in China, is recorded at lifting 20,133 century stereoptican him the most likely proprietor and as certainly tonnes and I doubt that any single item remaining slide card. there is nothing to suggest that anyone else was from Ancient Egypt masses anywhere near that. responsible for building it. So you really should Those who remember the early days of the Space go with the best evidence, albeit it is rather Shuttle might remember seeing that 80 tonne sketchy. Other indirect evidence tells us that the vehicle being flown on top of a Boeing 747 to cult of Khufu, priests charged with keeping the conduct gliding tests. It didn’t just grow on top of name alive and presumably keeping the site clean the Jumbo, it was lifted there. and tidy - this was normal practice for Egyptian With the technology available today we could kings - endured until at least the 26th Dynasty, reproduce the Great Pyramid with even finer well over 2000 years later. That means it endured tolerances than the Egyptians achieved and longer than Christianity (to date), much longer without any of the flaws that exist in the original. than Islam (to date) and not a lot less than The only real problem we would face would be Buddhism. finding someone to pay for it. Governments aren’t The fact that the sides of the Great Pyramid (quite) that stupid and god-kings are pretty thin have a slight concavity is not of recent discovery, on the ground these days. But that should only it having been noticed by no less an authority serve to increase our admiration for our ancestors than Flinders Petrie - the ‘Father of Scientific who managed, with only basic tools, lots of Archaeology’ as he is sometimes dubbed - in the willing labour and dedication, to do something so 19th Century. Also, the first aerial photograph massive that was, to them, worthwhile. that makes this feature starkly obvious took place I thank Graeme for his questions and I hope in the 1940s. As with so much else about the that my responses will encourage him to seek Great Pyramid and the Pyramid Age in general, more reliable information about a subject that, as we simply do not know why or how this was he might well guess, has been a passion of mine brought about, but this is no reason to propose for a very long time. I think I could probably give anything other than that was what the builders a reasonably accurate response to his questions decided to do for reasons of their own. about vaccination, but as we have members One thing in common to all the hypotheses infinitely more qualified than I am, I will leave that posit other than what Egyptologists currently that up to them. propose is that they seem to regard the Great Pyramid as though it was some sort of unique Barry Williams construction. If it was, then we would have a real Roseville, NSW 61 LETTERS To the Editor What you think ...

doubt exhausted arm, and let’s hope When I read that Dr Groves had News and views that one day she’ll return to the fold of been reduced by his circumstances exposing the lesser side of mainstream to wearing second-hand underwear and social media. I almost choked on my vesertine t was interesting to see two items Dan Nilsson chota peg. I hereby call upon Iin the last issue of The Skeptic Via Email Australian Skeptics to institute a fund referencing Sharon Hill, edtor of whereby a selection of designer-label Doubtful News. In your “Them” undergarments will be supplied to our column, you rightly praise her work fallen colleague forthwith, thereby on exposing the more ludicrous Colin Groves’ restoring him to the dignity and extremes of the paranormal in honour he so richly deserves. the media, and in the article “RU trousers As an earnest of my concern I hereby Listening”, Sharon herself looks at include the sum of one dollar to start social media and the growing problem the fund. I urge all other Skeptics to of readers only looking at what makes was upset to read in a letter “Who follow my example. them feel comfortable. Iis Colin Kline?” in your most recent Sharon was the epitome of looking issue that my old friend Dr Colin Jim R Wallaby (Bt) at things outside of the Skeptical Groves, long a distinguished and Wallaby Towers ‘canon’, assessing it and, where invaluable contributor to the Skeptical necessary, exposing it, always with a cause, has been forced into penury by Editor’s note: For those who hadn’t dry sense of humour. forces that he is too decent to disclose. read the letter from Colin Groves (The It’s a shame therefore that she has Is this any way to treat a man, a leader Skeptic, 36:2, p62) he admitted to stopped publishing Doubtful News. in his field of social anthropology, wearing Colin Kline’s underwear, For me, it was constant pleasure, whose expertise has brought nothing though we assume he meant the branded amusement and no little information. but credit to both our cause and our variety (under Calvin’s name) rather More power, therefore, to her no nation? than Mr Kline’s own.

CRYPTIC CROSSWORD SOLUTION DR BOB’S QUIZ SOLUTIONS

S R E T S K C I R T I K I T

L 1. Spoons U E A I E T C C

S E D A C A F E S U O O M A

R 2. Snood

L N N I S L L P

E T A R I A C A I S E N M A O 3. “Bi’yons and bi’yons” ≥4,000,000,000

C R A E K C E

A 4. I cannot deal with a man who has an adjective for his first

A I G O L O P A O N I H C I

G name

R R L S F A S E

A I R T A L T E F I L T A P S 5. Horse. Second is cow, from collisions with cars.

P E H E O A R O

U E D A S I L A P H T R E N I

T N R C A S T S

S M U R A L A C C I N A T A S

A S M R O R U A

L L A H A N O I T N E V N O C

62 The Skeptic September 16

Skeptical Groups in Australia

QLD SA Queensland Skeptics Association Inc – Bob Bruce Skeptics SA – Laurie Eddie www.qskeptics.org.au 52B Miller St Unley, SA 5061 Mob: 0419 778 308 [email protected] Tel: (08) 8272 5881 [email protected] Meetings with a guest speaker on the last Monday of the month from February to November at the Redbrick Hotel, 81 Annerley Thinking and Drinking - Skeptics in the Pub Road, South Brisbane. Dinner from 6pm, speaker at 7.30pm. Contact: [email protected] Qskeptics eGroup - www.egroups.com/list/qskeptics www.meetup.com/Thinking-and-Drinking-Skeptics-in-the- Pub/ calendar/10205558 Brisbane Skeptics in the Pub or http://tinyurl.com/loqdrt http://Brisbanesitp.wordpress.com, follow links for Facebook, Meets on the third Friday of every month at The Benjamin on Twitter and email list Franklin pub, 233 Franklin St, Adelaide. Meets on the first Tuesday of each month from 6:30pm at the Plough Inn, Southbank WA WA Skeptics – Dr Geoffrey Dean Gold Coast Skeptics – Lilian Derrick PO Box 466, Subiaco, WA 6904 PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall, QLD 9726 Tel: (07) 5593 1882 Tel: 08 9341 4538; [email protected] [email protected] Contact Lilian to find out news of more events. Details of all our meetings and speakers are on our website at www.undeceivingourselves.org

TAS NT Hobart Skeptics – Leyon Parker PO Box 84, Battery Point TAS 7004 Darwin Skeptics – Michelle Franklin Tel: 03 6225 3988 BH, 0418 128713 [email protected] PO Box2027 Humpty Doo NT 0836 Tel: 0408 783 145; www.facebook.com/group/darwinskeptics/ Skeptics in the Pub - 2nd Monday each month, [email protected] 6.30pm, Ball & Chain restaurant, Salamanca Place Meetings to be announced - see Facebook page for details Launceston Skeptics – Jin-oh Choi 0408 271 800 [email protected] www. launcestonskeptics.com Launceston: Skeptics in the Pub 1st & 3rd Thursday of each month 5.30pm @ The Royal Oak Hotel Launceston: Skeptical Sunday, 2nd Sunday of each month 2.00pm @ Cube Cafe

NOTE: LISTINGS WELCOME We invite listings for any Skeptical groups based on local and regional areas. Email us at editor@skeptics. com.au with details of your organisation’s name, contact details and any regular functions, eg Skeptics in the Pub, with time, day of the month, location etc. Because this is a quarterly journal and most groups meet monthly, it is unlikely we will be able to include references to specific speakers or events. The 32nd Australian Skeptics National Convention Melbourne 2016

Good Thinking November 25–27 University of Melbourne

convention.skeptics.com.au

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