Hollow Victory
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FINANCIAL TIMES TUESDAY NOVEMBER 27 2012 ★ 11 ANALYSIS Hollow victory ish regions. In his abortive September meeting with Mr Rajoy to renegotiate terms, Mr Mas offered to continue a Spain high level of budgetary transfers in exchange for fiscal autonomy. The prime minister refused even to dis- cuss it, officials on both sides say. he Catalan business commu- nity, though nervous of seces- A record turnout sion, backed Mr Mas on this, resentful at what it saw as has given the Tdeliberate attempts by Madrid to stifle competition from Barcelona by, for Catalan parliament example, withholding investment in vital infrastructure. The scotching of a separatist a merger between Catalan utility Gas Natural and Endesa, now under con- trol of Enel of Italy, also rankles. “I majority, but the would hope to live in a world where the Spanish preferred Endesa’s head- chances of a quarters to be in Barcelona rather than Rome,” says Andreu Mas-Colell, referendum on the Catalan government’s finance chief. A Spanish diplomat adds: independence from “Madrid used to be the political capi- tal and Barcelona the commercial cap- ital, but now Madrid wants to be both Spain have faded and they resent it, and feel [Madrid] wants to make sure that Barcelona is By David Gardner always in second place.” One Catalan business leader says local companies have lost faith that things can improve under present rules, especially now the PP has an very year in Catalonia, there absolute majority in Madrid. “Before, is a fiercely contested and we got transfers [of power] and invest- passionately followed contest ment because the party in office in to build the highest human Madrid needed outside support, not Ecastle – castells of people piling up in because there was a dynamic concept giddy layers towards the sky, sus- of an evolving state.” tained by a mass of humanity bound Dealing with this accumulation of tightly together underneath. It is an grievances and resentment now enterprise that requires extraordinary requires leadership, on both sides. Mr levels of collective confidence and Mas has left himself wiggle room, common purpose and a mix of daring never using the word independence, and derangement – qualities, perhaps, preferring to say that Catalonia needs of a people determined to become the its “own state” – a formula that in nation they feel they are. theory fits inside a reformed constitu- That is what Catalans had to con- tion that offers Catalans more of what sider as they voted on Sunday in a the Basques already have. But if Mr historic election to decide on their Rajoy refuses to budge from the sta- new parliament and home-rule gov- tus quo, the road to independence – ernment, the first step on the road lengthened by Sunday’s election local nationalist leaders have been results – will stay open. mapping towards secession from “Mas would do a deal, if only he Spain – and a constitutional clash could get one”, says a veteran politi- with the central government in cian with ties to Madrid and Barce- Madrid. lona. “What makes this unresolvable In the event, though voters have is not Catalonia, it’s that there is no returned a separatist majority to the Common purpose: Catalans may not have given Artur Mas a majority, but they did vote overwhelmingly for secessionist parties leadership.” Catalan parliament, both secessionists and unionists have done well enough to dig in further, and catch in their results, we will just have to keep CiU rather than the ERC – the repub- crossfire those, such as the Socialists, working.” Mr Rajoy, who went out lican party of the Catalan government who are arguing for a federal outcome four times on the Catalan campaign of the 1936-39 civil war era – would to a problem that may have abated trail, will rightly feel he can now con- lead the surge, even if many main- but has in no sense been resolved. front the wrenching economic and stream nationalists, notably the Chris- Despite a surge in separatist senti- financial crises engulfing Spain with- tian Democrats inside the CiU, won- ment in recent months, voters denied out immediate fear of a constitutional dered whether independence was a anything like an absolute majority to stand-off – an outcome his fellow EU leap in the dark. In the end, the seces- Artur Mas, president of the Generali- leaders will welcome. sionist republicans of the ERC have tat and leader of Convergència i Unió The question now is whether the reaped the bigger harvest, doubling (CiU), the centre-right ruling national- prime minister and his party – which their seats. ists, instead propelling the secession- arrived in power a year ago with the Another reason Mr Mas did not get ist Esquerra Republicana de Cat- ambition to reverse aspects of the dev- his way was that his CiU government alunya (ERC) into second place for olution settlement that underpinned presided over three packages of deep the first time. budgetary cuts and sought a €5.4bn Mr Mas and the CiU won, despite fiscal bailout from Madrid. His gov- losing 12 seats. But their attempt to ‘What the independence ernment, furthermore, had relied on secure an “indestructible majority” to of Catalonia really PP votes for 16 out of the 18 legisla- legitimise a referendum on independ- tive measures it passed in two years. ence backfired – much to the glee of means is the The stated goal of making Catalonia Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime a “new state in Europe” sounded less minister, and his centre-right Partido disappearance of thrilling, moreover, once the penny Popular, whose partisans declaimed Spain as a nation’ started to drop that it would have to the Catalan leader had made a fool of seek readmission to the EU after inde- himself and should now leave politics. pendence and that Spain would have Things are unlikely to prove that the transition from the Franco dicta- a veto. A dossier of dubious prove- simple. torship to democracy more than nance that appeared in the rightwing The result has certainly taken the 30 years ago – will use this opportu- Madrid press in recent days, alleging wind out of the Catalan leader’s sails. nity to seek solutions to old Catalan that Mr Mas and his allies had secret After a huge rally of separatists all grievances. Swiss bank accounts, may also have but occupied the Catalan capital of If they gloat rather than negotiate, influenced voters. Barcelona in September, and Mr the pressure for Catalan independence Rajoy rebuffed his demand for greater will only build, as it will in the ut while all these factors may fiscal autonomy, Mr Mas sought and Basque Country, where the devolved have blunted the Mas offen- expected a “very clear majority in parliament also has a majority in sive for now, the question of favour of sovereignty” to give him the favour of independence following how to accommodate Catalo- legitimacy to convene a plebiscite on home rule elections last month. Bnia in a more plurinational Spain Catalonia’s relationship with Spain. The Catalan secessionist surge has remains. The status quo is no longer He, personally, did not get it. awakened some in the Partido Popu- tenable. The September demonstra- Yet the mainstream nationalist CiU, lar to the real dangers of a break-up. tion in Barcelona, says a veteran along with the centre-left ERC and “What the independence of Catalonia Spanish statesman, was a “tsunami secessionist leftwing forces, amount really means is the disappearance of that has changed the contours of the to a “majority in favour of sover- Spain as a nation,” said Alberto Ruiz- country”. Though it was entirely eignty”, on top of which parts of the Gallardón, Spain’s justice minister peaceful, he adds, it was presented in Catalan Socialist party and the Left- and a leading figure in the party, in Madrid as a “fascist rally” – a meas- Green alliance defend Catalans’ right an interview this month. Alicia ure of the gulf to be bridged. to decide their own future. The pros- Sánchez-Camacho, PP leader in Cata- That abyss opened before the onset pect of a referendum – which Mr lonia, came out strongly in defence of of the eurozone crisis, even though Rajoy says he will use the full force of devolution and against a call for the the fiscal row between Madrid and constitutional law to prevent – has recentralisation of power by José Barcelona has made the atmosphere receded, but not disappeared. María Aznar, the former prime minis- much more toxic – and drawn Catalan Looking grim but determined after ter. Mr Aznar is still influential on the business into the separatist camp. the result, Mr Mas said “one thing is right of the party and through his The tipping point was the thwarted, the right to decide, but another is FAES think-tank, which calls for a socialist-led attempt to enhance Cata- [our] own state; to get that, with these rollback of home rule. lonia’s statute of autonomy, launched José Ignacio Wert, the education in 2003 and endorsed by the parlia- minister who was formerly at FAES, ments in Barcelona and Madrid and touched raw nerves in October when voted through almost by acclamation he told parliament he intended to in a Catalan referendum. But in 2010, Speed read “Spanish-ise” Catalan pupils. He sug- the constitutional court in Madrid, gested they were being brainwashed despite having offered no previous ●Continental relief EU leaders will be into separatism by the Catalan lan- guidance on the legality of the reform, relieved that Mariano Rajoy can finally guage, which is taught alongside eviscerated it after representations confront the country’s financial crisis.