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Now Arriving: A Connected Mobility Roadmap for Public Transport Greg Lindsay, Senior Fellow, New Cities Foundation WITH SUPPORT FROM: WITH SUPPORT FROM: Now Arriving: A Connected Mobility Roadmap for Public Transport Greg Lindsay, Senior Fellow, New Cities Foundation This report was written as part of the Connected Mobility Initiative and published in October 2016. Edited by: Naureen Kabir Collings, Director of Research, New Cities Foundation. Please cite this publication as: Lindsay, Greg, New Cities Foundation (2016), Now Arriving: A Connected Mobility Roadmap for Public Transport [online: http://bit.ly/NCFConnectedMobility] You can copy, download, or print this report for your own use, and you can include excerpts from New Cities Foundation publications, databases, and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations blogs, websites, and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the New Cities Foundation as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Request for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the New Cities Foundation. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................... 8 A Tale of Four Cities ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 Washington D.C....................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Learning from Los Angeles................................................................................................................................... 19 Connected Transit-Oriented Development.......................................................................................... 21 Key Lessons....................................................................................................................................................................... 23 London............................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 The Problem of the Adjacent Incumbent................................................................................................... 25 Mobility-as-a-Service................................................................................................................................................ 27 Key Lessons...................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Sao Paulo......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 MobiLab: Faster, Cheaper, Better?................................................................................................................ 35 Key Lessons...................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Manila................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 Learning from Nairobi: Mapping Nairobi’s Matatus.......................................................................... 40 Mapping Manila’s Jeepneys................................................................................................................................. 41 Is the Future “Stream Mobility”?..................................................................................................................... 43 Key Lessons...................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Recommendations.......................................................................................................................................................... 46 Near-Term Strategies........................................................................................................................................................ 46 Mid-Term Strategies........................................................................................................................................................... 52 Longer-Term Strategies................................................................................................................................................... 57 Conclusion............................................................................................................................................................................... 62 Bibliography........................................................................................................................................................................... 63 Executive Summary The form and functioning of cities is while increasing coverage, transit agencies ÚåĀĹåÚÆƼƋų±ĹŸŞŅųƋ±ƋĜŅĹţBŅƵƵåƋų±ƴåųŸå risk being hollowed out by their would-be ƋĘåĵ ±ýåÏƋŸ åƴåųƼƋĘĜĹč üųŅĵ Ņƚų ±ÏÏ域 partners. to opportunities to land uses to energy consumption and pollution. Railroads, The risk is that a new generation of “choice” streetcars, and automobiles each produced riders may choose to forgo both their cities made in their respective images, from own cars and public transport in favor of skyscrapers to suburbs to sprawl. parallel private competitors, consigning vulnerable “captive” riders to increasingly Today, the state-of-the-art in transportation dysfunctional transit systems crippled by is the smartphone. Its two-way ability a lack of leadership, funding, and political to locate, coordinate, and orchestrate support. both passengers and vehicles is more important than any one mode, including This is not an argument in favor of the status the automobile. Smartphones and their quo, however. Cities are right to encourage successors will transform cities once again. innovative services, and residents are right The only question is how. to want them. Regulators cannot restrain new entrants forever, nor should they try. To date, the ones seizing these opportunities BŅƵåƴåųØ ƋĘåƼ ŸĘŅƚĬÚ Æå ŞųŅ±ÏƋĜƴå ±ÆŅƚƋ have been private actors, whether in way- driving the change – and writing the rules of ĀĹÚĜĹč Šåţčţ :ŅŅčĬå a±ŞŸØ ±DŽåØ eŞŞĬåšØ engagement so to speak – rather than have ride-hailing (e.g. Uber, Didi, Grab, Lyft) or new mobility technology players decide the autonomous vehicles (e.g. Alphabet, Tesla, terms themselves and control the outcome. Amazon). This represents both a missed The only sustainable solution is for public opportunity and a looming threat for transport to embrace this opportunity public transport, which has struggled to to reinvent themselves as mobility adapt for a litany of historical, political, and orchestrators rather than operators, to technological reasons. supplement high-frequency, high-capacity trunk lines with on-demand services, to Transit agencies trapped in a downward recombine and repackage modes in new spiral of shrinking budgets, diminished and appealing ways, and to create new service, and declining ridership have begun public-private partnerships that create turning to these companies as complements value for all participants while preserving or even substitutes for traditional modes, transportation access and equity. No small åŸŞåÏĜ±ĬĬƼ±Ÿ±ĀųŸƋě±ĹÚěĬ±ŸƋĵĜĬåÏŅĹĹåÏƋĜŅĹ task, but an imperative goal worth pursuing. to mass transit. This is a dangerous path that practically invites disruption; as on- This report is the culmination of the demand mobility continues falling in price Connected Mobility Initiative launched by 1 Executive Summary Introduction A Tale of Four Cities Recommendations Conclusion the New Cities Foundation in June 2015. themselves as more agile, entrepreneurial, The primary aim of the initiative is to and willing to partner, alternately inspired explore the triple convergence of “mobility” by the successful spread of municipal bike- — physical, digital, and socio-economic sharing programs and alarmed by would- — and to propose strategies and steps be disruptors. ƋŅƵ±ųÚ ĵŅųå ÆųŅ±ÚĬƼ ŸĘ±ųĜĹč ƋĘå ÆåĹåĀƋŸ of this transformation while ameliorating FĹ ±ŸĘĜĹčƋŅĹØ ƵĘĜÏĘ Ƶ±Ÿ ŧƚĜÏĩ ƋŅ ĜƋŸ ŞŅƋåĹƋĜ±ĬĬƼ ÏŅųųŅŸĜƴå åýåÏƋŸ ŅĹ ŞƚÆĬĜÏ welcome TNCs, there are already signs of institutions. To this end, the report is split how connected mobility is changing the ÆåƋƵååĹ ÆųĜåü ŞųŅĀĬåŸ Ņü üŅƚų ÏĜƋĜåŸ ó city. New residents are eschewing cars in ±ŸĘĜĹčƋŅĹ %ţţØ XŅĹÚŅĹØ ÅŅ {±ƚĬŅØ ±ĹÚ favor of bike-sharing, car-sharing, and ride- Manila — facing challenges representative hailing, enabling developers to transform of their respective peers, along with previously undesirable or inaccessible sites a list of near-, mid-, and long-term ĜĹƋŅ ĹåƵ ĘŅƚŸĜĹčţ cŸű ĀųŸƋ ƴĜÏƋĜĵŸ Ƶåųå recommendations for transport authorities taxis, and now

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