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Community-Level Effects of Climate Change on Ontario's Terrestrial

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Community-Level Effects of Climate Change on Ontario's Terrestrial Ministry of Natural Resources Community-Level 36 Effects of Climate CLIMATE Change on Ontario’s CHANGE Terrestrial Biodiversity RESEARCH REPORT CCRR-36 Responding to Climate Change Through Partnership Sustainability in a Changing Climate: An Overview of MNR’s Climate Change Strategy (2011-2014) Climate change will affect all MNR programs and the • Facilitate the development of renewable energy by natural resources for which it has responsibility. This collaborating with other Ministries to promote the val- strategy confirms MNR’s commitment to the Ontario ue of Ontario’s resources as potential green energy government’s climate change initiatives such as the sources, making Crown land available for renewable Go Green Action Plan on Climate Change and out- energy development, and working with proponents lines research and management program priorities to ensure that renewable energy developments are for the 2011-2014 period. consistent with approval requirements and that other Ministry priorities are considered. Theme 1: Understand Climate Change • Provide leadership and support to resource users MNR will gather, manage, and share information and industries to reduce carbon emissions and in- and knowledge about how ecosystem composition, crease carbon storage by undertaking afforestation, structure and function – and the people who live and protecting natural heritage areas, exploring oppor- work in them – will be affected by a changing climate. tunities for forest carbon management to increase Strategies: carbon uptake, and promoting the increased use of • Communicate internally and externally to build wood products over energy-intensive, non-renewable awareness of the known and potential impacts of alternatives. climate change and mitigation and adaptation op- • Help resource users and partners participate in a tions available to Ontarians. carbon offset market, by working with our partners • Monitor and assess ecosystem and resource condi- to ensure that a robust trading system is in place tions to manage for climate change in collaboration based on rules established in Ontario (and potentially with other agencies and organizations. in other jurisdictions), continuing to examine the • Undertake and support research designed to mitigation potential of forest carbon management in improve understanding of climate change, including Ontario, and participating in the development of pro- improved temperature and precipitation projections, tocols and policies for forest and land-based carbon ecosystem vulnerability assessments, and im- offset credits. proved models of the carbon budget and ecosys- tem processes in the managed forest, the settled Theme 3: Help Ontarians Adapt landscapes of southern Ontario, and the forests MNR will provide advice and tools and techniques to and wetlands of the Far North. help Ontarians adapt to climate change. Strategies • Transfer science and understanding to decision- include: makers to enhance comprehensive planning and • Maintain and enhance emergency management management in a rapidly changing climate. capability to protect life and property during extreme events such as flooding, drought, blowdown and Theme 2: Mitigate Climate Change wildfire. MNR will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in sup- • Use scenarios and vulnerability analyses to develop port of Ontario’s greenhouse gas emission reduction and employ adaptive solutions to known and emerg- goals. Strategies: ing issues. • Continue to reduce emissions from MNR opera- • Encourage and support industries, resource users tions though vehicle fleet renewal, converting to and communities to adapt, by helping to develop un- other high fuel efficiency/low-emissions equipment, derstanding and capabilities of partners to adapt their demonstrating leadership in energy-efficient facility practices and resource use in a changing climate. development, promoting green building materials • Evaluate and adjust policies and legislation to re- and fostering a green organizational culture. spond to climate change challenges. Community-Level Effects of Climate Change on Ontario’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Larissa A. Nituch1 and Jeff Bowman1* 1Wildlife Research and Monitoring Section Science and Research Branch Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Trent University, DNA Building 2140 East Bank Drive Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8 *correspondent: [email protected] 2013 Science and Research Branch • Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources © 2013, Queen’s Printer for Ontario Printed in Ontario, Canada Single copies of this publication are available from: Science and Research Branch Ontario Forest Research Institute Ministry of Natural Resources 1235 Queen Street East Sault Ste. Marie, ON Canada P6A 2E5 Telephone: (705) 946-2981 Fax: (705) 946-2030 E-mail: [email protected] Cette publication hautement spécialisée, Community-level effects of climate change on Ontario’s terrestrial biodiversity n’est disponible qu’en anglais en vertu du Règlement 671/92 qui en exempte l’application de la Loi sur les services en français. Pour obtenir de l’aide en français, veuillez communiquer avec le ministère des Richesses naturelles au [email protected]. This paper contains recycled materials. i Summary Rapid, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to be a major threat to the biodiversity of terrestrial communities, and is one of the main factors affecting species interactions and ecosystem functioning. Previous reports have described three general mechanisms that can affect species as a result of climate change: demographic, phenological, and genetic, all of which can result in either population expansions or contractions, depending on species-specific responses. In this report, we describe mechanisms that are expected to affect ecological communities, rather than individual species, as a result of climate change. The effects of climate change on communities and ecosystems are difficult to predict because of complexities and uncertainties associated with biotic interactions. Climate change can significantly affect the genetic composition and structure of communities, and can alter the genetic connectivity among populations, increasing the risk of genetic diversity losses. Climate change typically affects species in communities disproportionately, reducing synchrony and symmetry between interacting species, such as predators and prey. Climate change can also act synergistically with other processes, such as habitat fragmentation, disease, and invasive species, to exacerbate the overall effects. Since individual species responses to climate change vary, some will adapt and remain in a community, others will leave a community, and non-native species may join a community. The result is the potential generation of novel biotic communities, referred to as community reassembly. Community reassembly alters community composition and can therefore lead to changes in biodiversity, species interactions, trophic structure, and ecosystem processes. In this report, we discuss the potential community-level effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, with a focus on wildlife, and identify gaps in knowledge. We also make recommendations for associated management consideration, research needs, and adaptation strategies. Résumé Effets au niveau de la communauté du changement climatique sur la biodiversité terrestre de l’Ontario Un changement climatique anthropique rapide est susceptible de menacer sérieusement la biodiversité des communautés terrestres, et c’est un des principaux facteurs influençant l’interaction des espèces et le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Des rapports antérieurs ont décrit trois mécanismes généraux qui peuvent avoir une incidence sur les espèces en raison des changements climatiques : les mécanismes démographique, phénologique et génétique, qui peuvent tous entraîner un accroissement ou une diminution de la population, selon les réactions propres aux différentes espèces. Dans le présent rapport, nous décrivons des mécanismes qui devraient influer sur des communautés écologiques, plutôt que sur des espèces données, du fait du changement climatique. Les effets du changement climatique sur les communautés et les écosystèmes sont difficiles à prédire en raison de la complexité et de l’incertitude des interactions biotiques. Le changement climatique peut avoir une incidence importante sur la composition génétique et la structure des communautés, et peut modifier la connectivité génétique entre les populations, augmentant le risque de perte de la diversité génétique. Le changement climatique influe normalement de façon disproportionnée sur certaines espèces de communautés, réduisant la synchronie et la symétrie entre espèces en interaction telles que les prédateurs et les proies. Le changement climatique peut aussi agir de façon synergique avec d’autres processus, par exemple la fragmentation de l’habitat, la maladie et les espèces envahissantes, pour exacerber les effets globaux. Comme les réactions des diverses espèces au changement climatique varient, certaines s’adapteront et resteront au sein d’une communauté, tandis que d’autres la quitteront et que des espèces non indigènes pourront s’y intégrer. La conséquence est l’apparition potentielle de nouvelles communautés biotiques, ce qu’on appelle le réassemblage de la communauté. La composition de la communauté se trouve ainsi modifiée, ce qui est susceptible d’amener des changements dans la biodiversité, les interactions entre espèces, la structure trophique et les processus écosystémiques.
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