IKV BRIEF

WHERE DOES STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

TOBB YÖNETİM KURULU

M.Rifat ŞUBAT 2019 237 HİSARCIKLIOĞLU 19 65 Başkan

Ali KOPUZ Selçuk S. Zeki Ayhan ÖZTÜRK MURZİOĞLU ZEYTİNOĞLU

Başkan Başkan Başkan Başkan Yardımcısı Yardımcısı Yardımcısı Yardımcısı

GÜNAY Tamer Faik Cengiz Mahmut KIRAN YAVUZ ÖZGENER

Başkan Sayman Üye Üye Üye Yardımcısı

Öztürk Zeki Oğuzhan A. Davut ORAN KIVANÇ SADIKOĞLU ÇETİN

Üye Üye Üye Üye

19 65

ZEYDAN Engin Özer Ömer Hakan YEŞİL MATLI ÜLKEN Üye Üye Üye Üye Türkiye-AB Yüksek Düzeyli Siyasi Diyalog Toplantısının

Şaban A. Mehmet S. Selim M. Cihat KARAMEHMET BÜYÜKSİMİTCİ KANDEMİR LOKMANOĞLU OĞLU Ardından: Tehditler ve Fırsatlar Üye Üye Üye Üye

Enerjide Güçlenen ABD’nin ’a AB’nin Gözü Türkiye-Rusya Yönelik Ekonomik Doğrudan Yabancı Stratejik Ortaklığı: Yaptırımlarının İkinci Yatırımların TürkAkım Projesi Aşaması Devrede Üzerinde TOBBTOBBTOBB YÖNETİMTOBB YÖNETİM YÖNETİM YÖNETİM KURULU KURULU KURULU KURULU

ŞUBAT 2019 M.RifatM.RifatM.Rifat M.Rifat ŞUBATŞUBAT 2019 2019237 ŞUBAT237 237 2019 237 HİSARCIKLIOĞLUHİSARCIKLIOĞLUHİSARCIKLIOĞLUHİSARCIKLIOĞLU 19 6195 6159 65 19 65 BaşkanBaşkanBaşkan Başkan

Ali AliAli Ali KOPUZKOPUZKOPUZ KOPUZ SelçukSelçukSelçuk Selçuk S. ZekiS. ZekiS. Zeki S. Zeki AyhanAyhanAyhan Ayhan ÖZTÜRKÖZTÜRKÖZTÜRK ÖZTÜRK MURZİOĞLUMURZİOĞLUMURZİOĞLUMURZİOĞLU ZEYTİNOĞLUZEYTİNOĞLUZEYTİNOĞLUZEYTİNOĞLU

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ÖztürkÖztürkÖztürk Öztürk ZekiZeki Zeki Zeki OğuzhanOğuzhanOğuzhan A. A. OğuzhanA. A. DavutDavutDavut Davut ORANORANORAN ORAN KIVANÇKIVANÇKIVANÇ KIVANÇ SADIKOĞLUSADIKOĞLUSADIKOĞLUSADIKOĞLU ÇETİNÇETİNÇETİN ÇETİN

Üye ÜyeÜye Üye Üye ÜyeÜye Üye ÜyeÜyeÜye Üye ÜyeÜyeÜye Üye

19 65199 6655 19 65 IKV’S FOUNDING AND TRUSTEE ORGANISATIONS

ZEYDANZEYDANZEYDAN ZEYDAN EnginEngin Engin Engin ÖzerÖzerÖzer Özer ÖmerÖmerÖmer Ömer HakanHakanHakan Hakan YEŞİL MATLI YEŞİLYEŞİL YEŞİL MATLIMATLI MATLI ÜLKENÜLKENÜLKEN ÜLKEN Üye ÜyeÜye Üye Üye ÜyeÜye Üye ÜyeÜyeÜye Üye ÜyeÜyeÜye Üye Türkiye-ABTürkiye-ABTürkiye-ABTürkiye-AB Yüksek Yüksek Yüksek Yüksek Düzeyli Düzeyli Düzeyli Düzeyli SiyasiSiyasiSiyasiSiyasi Diyalog Diyalog Diyalog Diyalog Toplantısının Toplantısının Toplantısının Toplantısının

Şaban A. Mehmet S. Selim M. Cihat Şaban ŞabanA. A. Şaban A. MehmetMehmet Mehmet S. SelimS. Selim S. Selim M. CihatM. Cihat M. Cihat KARAMEHMET BÜYÜKSİMİTCİ KANDEMİR LOKMANOĞLU KARAMEHMETKARAMEHMETKARAMEHMET BÜYÜKSİMİTCİBÜYÜKSİMİTCİBÜYÜKSİMİTCİ KANDEMİRKANDEMİRKANDEMİR LOKMANOĞLULOKMANOĞLULOKMANOĞLU OĞLU Ardından: Tehditler ve Fırsatlar OĞLU Ardından: Tehditler ve Fırsatlar OĞLU OĞLU Ardından:Ardından: Tehditler Tehditler ve ve Fırsatlar Fırsatlar Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye Üye

EnerjideEnerjideEnerjide EnerjideGüçlenen Güçlenen Güçlenen Güçlenen ABD’ninABD’ninABD’nin İran’aABD’nin İran’a İran’a İran’a AB’ninAB’ninAB’nin Gözü GözüAB’nin Gözü Gözü Türkiye-RusyaTürkiye-RusyaTürkiye-RusyaTürkiye-Rusya Yönelik YönelikYönelik EkonomikYönelik Ekonomik Ekonomik Ekonomik Doğrudan DoğrudanDoğrudan Doğrudan Yabancı Yabancı Yabancı Yabancı StratejikStratejikStratejik StratejikOrtaklığı: Ortaklığı: Ortaklığı: Ortaklığı: YaptırımlarınınYaptırımlarınınYaptırımlarının Yaptırımlarının İkinci İkinci İkinci İkinci YatırımlarınYatırımlarınYatırımlarınYatırımların TürkAkımTürkAkımTürkAkımTürkAkım Projesi Projesi Projesi ProjesiAşamasıAşamasıAşaması DevredeAşaması Devrede Devrede Devrede ÜzerindeÜzerindeÜzerindeÜzerinde WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

This publication is prepared by N. Melis Bostanoğlu, Junior Researcher at the Economic Development Foundation (IKV). TOBB YÖNETİM KURULU

Istanbul, November 2020 M.Rifat ŞUBAT 2019 237 HİSARCIKLIOĞLU 19 65 Başkan ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION (IKV)

Ali KOPUZ Head Office Brussels Representation Selçuk S. Zeki Ayhan ÖZTÜRK MURZİOĞLU ZEYTİNOĞLU

Esentepe Mahallesi, Harman Sokak, Avenue de I’Yser 5-6 1040 Başkan Başkan Başkan Başkan Yardımcısı Yardımcısı Yardımcısı Yardımcısı TOBB Plaza, No: 10, Kat: 7-8, Brussels / Belgium Levent, 34394 / Turkey Phone: +32 2 646 40 40

Phone: +90 212 270 93 00 Fax: +32 2 646 95 38 GÜNAY Tamer Faik Cengiz Mahmut Fax: +90 212 270 30 22 [email protected] KIRAN YAVUZ ÖZGENER Başkan Sayman Üye Üye Üye [email protected] Yardımcısı

Öztürk Zeki Oğuzhan A. Davut ORAN KIVANÇ SADIKOĞLU ÇETİN

Üye Üye Üye Üye

19 65

ZEYDAN This publication is supported by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Engin Özer Ömer Hakan YEŞİL MATLI ÜLKEN Freedom. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the Üye Üye Üye Üye official policy or position of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. Türkiye-AB Yüksek Düzeyli Short quotations from this copyright work are allowed provided that the Economic Development Foundation and the author are properly cited. Siyasi Diyalog Toplantısının

Şaban A. Mehmet S. Selim M. Cihat KARAMEHMET BÜYÜKSİMİTCİ KANDEMİR LOKMANOĞLU Preparation for Publication OĞLU Ardından: Tehditler ve Fırsatlar Üye Üye Üye Üye

Enerjide Güçlenen ABD’nin İran’a AB’nin Gözü Türkiye-Rusya Yönelik Ekonomik Doğrudan Yabancı Stratejik Ortaklığı: Yaptırımlarının İkinci Yatırımların Anadolu Basın Merkezi TürkAkım Projesi Aşaması Devrede Üzerinde www.anadolubasin.com

3 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abbreviations...... 5

1. The Evolution of Environmental Policies in Turkey...... 6 2. Turkey in an Ever-Changing Climate Regime...... 7 2.1. The Impacts of the in Turkey...... 7 2.2. Emissions...... 11

3. Implementation of the Current Climate Policies...... 13

4. Turkey’s International Climate Efforts...... 15 4.1. Turkey’s Position on Significant Climate Agreements...... 15 4.1.1 Kyoto Protocol...... 15 4.1.2 ...... 16 4.2. Green Deal: A New Area for Cooperation with the EU...... 18 4.2.1 Current Climate Trends and Projections in the EU...... 19 4.2.2 Implications of the for Turkey...... 22

5. The Way Ahead...... 24

Conclusion...... 27

4 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

ABBREVIATIONS

BP British Petroleum CCPI Climate Change Performance Index CDU Christian Democratic Union Party COP Conference of the Parties EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEA European Environment Agency EIB European Investment Bank EP European Parliament ETS Systems EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FTA Free Trade Agreement G20 Group of Twenty GCASC Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus GDP GEF Global Environmental Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas IEA International Energy Agency INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MEP Member of the European Parliament MFF Multiannual Financial Framework NGEU Next Generation EU OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development TURKSTAT Turkish Statistical Institute TSD Trade and Sustainable Development UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change US United States of America WMO World Meteorological Organization WRI World Resources Institute 5 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Climate change is projected to be one of the 1. The Evolution of Environmental biggest challenges of the century. In the recent years, temperatures are rising steadily, are Policies in Turkey melting, sea levels are rising and rainfall patterns are For decades, Turkey has been implementing several shifting in the whole world. Correspondingly, the policies to ensure environmental protection. The number of climate related disasters increases each first provisions on the protection of the environment year, resulting in many casualties and economic took place in the Article 56 of the Constitution of losses. 1982 entitled “Health services and protection of the environment”. The article starting with the sentence While climate change is a natural process, it occurs which quotes “Everyone has the right to live in a very slowly over thousands or millions of years. healthy and balanced environment” and assigns However, the scientists recently proved that the the government and the citizens responsibility in humankind is further accelerating this process due the protection of environment and prevention of to economic activities and population growth. pollution. According to the WMO, “the five-year period 2015- 2019 is likely to be the warmest of any equivalent On the other hand, Environment Law No. 2872 period on record globally, with a 1.1°C global published on 9 August 1983 is known as the first temperature increase since the pre-industrial period environmental law entered into force in Turkey. and a 0.2°C increase compared to the previous five- Before the Environment Law, the provisions on the year period.”1 This increase is problematic because protection of the environment were generally put it shows that the current global climate actions are into practice by several ministries and institutions in not enough to limit the global temperature increase accordance with their field of interests. to below 2°C above pre-industrial level by 2100 and most definitely not enough to limit it by 1.5°C. The General Directorate of Environment, which was subsequently established on 8 June 1984, was put The fight against climate change is not something in charge of implementing the Environment Law. that could be done alone. It should be done by Since then, several regulations and directives have all parties involved: individuals, governments, continued to enter in to force. businesses, civil society organisations, schools and such. The most critical actors, especially In the decades to follow, the environmental governments and businesses, already started to put legislation has undergone some evolutions in the some efforts in order to fight the climate change light of the timely developments. The perspective of and adapt themselves to its adverse effects. Turkey EU membership has been one of the most important is one of the countries that are most vulnerable elements, which helped Turkey reshape its to climate change, and thus it is very important environmental policies. The accession negotiations for Turkey to implement highly ambitious climate on the “Environment and Climate Change” chapter policies. While Turkey has been participating in the started on 21 December 2009. international negotiations on climate change for decades, there have been some obstacles along Within the context of the accession negotiations, the way, which could not be overcome. With the Turkey has continued its efforts to harmonise its problems it faces, where will Turkey find itself on environmental legislation to the EU’s environmental the newly-founded international climate regime? acquis in the fields of air quality, water quality, That is the most important question that needs to environmental protection, waste management, be answered. industrial pollution, chemicals, noise and most importantly climate change.

6 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

2. Turkey in an Ever-Changing 2.1. The Impacts of the Climate Change in Climate Regime Turkey As a country located in the Mediterranean Basin, Climate change poses a great challenge for the Turkey is highly vulnerable to climate change. protection of the environment. Although climate has Turkey has already started to face a warming trend always been changing since the beginning of the in temperatures above seasonal normals, time, this change usually occurred naturally and very caused by heavy rainfalls and the threat of water slowly over thousands or millions of years. However, scarcity. the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC in 2014 has proven that it is humans who are causing The effects of climate change have been showing further acceleration in the process. According to themselves in the last decade more frequently. It the report, driven mostly by the economic and should be mentioned that the frequency of the population growth in the last decades, anthropogenic extreme temperature and natural disasters has greenhouse emissions are higher than ever, especially increased in Turkey in the last few years. The biggest compared to the pre-industrial era. Due to human disaster observed in Turkey took place in July 2017, actions, the atmosphere and ocean has warmed, the when the buildings got damaged, streets flooded amounts of snow and ice have also diminished, and and the trees knocked down in Istanbul due to sea level has risen more than ever. This, in turn, causes heavy rain, large hail, and strong winds. While at long-lasting changes in the environment, “increasing least 10 people got injured during the incident, it is the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible stated that the incident cost Turkish economy more impacts for people and ecosystems”, as the report than 1 billion Turkish liras.3 says. 2 Some analyses demonstrate that the number of For all the reasons above, the fight against climate extreme events has been increasing immensely in change has been a critical endeavour, although not the last two decades. While the number of such observed enough by masses until lately. For several events was recorded 598 in 2017; it has reached decades, Turkey has been taking a part in the global 840 in 2018 and 829 in 2019. Heavy rain and floods efforts to fight climate change and adapt to its effects. (36%), windstorm (27%), hail (18%), lightning (7%), Turkey has been a party to the UNFCCC, which aims snow (8%) and landslide were the most hazardous at stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at a extreme events recorded in 2019. As known, climate level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic change is the main culprit when it comes to the interference with the climate system. emergence of extreme events and natural disasters.

Graphic 1: The Percentage of Extreme Events in 2019

1 1 0 1 1 3 0 Heavy rain/floods 7 36 Windstorm 5 Hail Snow

18 Lightning Frost Landslide Avalanche Forest fire Sand storm 27

Source: Turkish State Meteorological Service 7 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Like everywhere else in the world, Turkey has been in the temperature; as it was cold in the morning experiencing extreme temperatures as well. This and evening however hot throughout the day with could be observed in most cities of Turkey in the weakened wind speed. The autumn temperature month of November in 2019 as it was recorded as anomalies were stated to be exceptionally above the second hottest November in the last 49 years normal with 1.9°C. after November 2010. According to the Turkish State Meteorological Service, the average temperature Furthermore, 2020 was measured to be hotter in November 2019 increased to 11.5°C, compared than the average as well. The average annual to the average normal temperature of 8.9°C. The temperature in Turkey in May 2020 rose to 17.6°C, region that got most affected by this increase was while the average annual temperature was the , which hosts the majority measured to be 16.7°C for a long time period. Thus, of the country’s population. While the average a new heat record was broken in 63 centres of temperature of the region in November was Turkey. 4 However, Turkey was not the only country 10.4°C for many years, the average temperature in that got affected by the extreme heat. According to November of 2019 was 15.1°C. This indicates that the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the world the average temperature in November 2019 was witnessed the hottest May in record, since May almost 5°C above the normal. The air quality has 2020 was 0.63°C warmer than average May from also gotten worse due to the extreme changes 1981-2010.5

Graphic 2: Average Annual Temperature in Turkey

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source: Turkish State Meteorological Service

As seen from Graphic 2, the average annual Average annual temperature in 2019 was 14.7°C, temperature in Turkey has been rising steadily in the which is 1.2°C above 1981-2010 average. Hence, last few decades. According to the data provided 2019 was recorded as the fourth warmest year by the Turkish State Meteorological Service, 2018 is since 1971. Overall, most cities had above normal recorded as the second hottest year, following 2010. temperatures except two: Karabük and Bitlis. When comparing the average temperature of the Moreover, all the seasonal temperatures were period 1970-1979 to the period of 2010-2019, it can above the normal. Temperature anomalies in some be seen there is a rise in the temperature by 1.9°C. 6 Anatolian locations were greater than 2°C.

8 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Graphic 3: Differences in Temperature from 1981 to 2010

Source: Turkish State Meteorological State

According to the Climate Change Projections for According to the figures provided by the Ministry Turkey Project7, which puts forward two scenarios of Environment and Urbanisation, the annual per regarding climate change in Turkey, the average capita water supply is 1,365 cubic meters (cbm) in annual temperature is foreseen to increase by 1°C Turkey. - 2°C in the period of 2016-2040; 1.5°C - 4°C in the period of 2041-2071 and 1.5°C - 5°C in the period However, the negative impacts of climate change of 2071-2100. might drop this figure to 1,120 cbm in 2030 and increase in Turkey, and this might result Under some scenarios, it is foreseen that the rise in Turkey facing .8 According to the in temperature will reach 3°C in winter and 8°C in Falkenmark Index, if the amount of renewable summer in the last 30 years of the 21st century. On water in a country is below 1000 m3 that country the other hand, rainfalls are foreseen to increase is said to be experiencing “water scarcity”, while in the winter but decrease in all other seasons. It a country is called water-poor if it has renewable is also indicated that the rise in the temperature water below 500 m3. It should be noted that 1,000 might lead to an increase in the number and m3 of water per capita is considered as a minimum severity of extreme events such as windstorm, hail to sustain life and ensure agricultural production.9 and whirlwind. Nevertheless, this can be already observed in the last few decades. It is observed that the factors such as extreme temperatures and decreasing rainfalls and snow Climate change also puts pressure on the trigger drought. According to the Turkish State already limited water supplies along with factors Meteorological Service’s assessment of drought such as population growth, agriculture and in Turkey by means of Standardized industrialisation. As a water-stressed country, it is Index (SPI) method, there was a drought in varying foreseen that Turkey could face water scarcity in intensities in Eastern Region, northeast of the near future. Central Anatolia, north and east of Eastern Anatolia and Tekirdağ, Bursa, Yalova, Çanakkale, Kütahya, Uşak, Burdur, Bartın and in 2019.

9 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Graphic 4: Trend in the Frequency of Meteorological from 1950 to 2015 in Europe

Trend in the frequency of meteorological droughts from 1950 to 2015 events / decade2 +1.3 0 -1.3 Significance of trends Outside coverage

Reference data: ©ESRI

Source: EEA

As seen from Graphic 4, the frequency of change, while they increase to 8-9% in 2040-2049. meteorological droughts has been increasing the Moreover, in the case of global warming of 1.1-1.3°C, most in Mediterranean countries such as Turkey, real GDP is foreseen decrease to by 1% in the first Greece, Italy, and Spain in Europe. These countries period (2030-2034), and 1.4% in the second period are also threatened by the risk of further increasing (2040+2049). A decreasing trend in the productivity drought in the future. of hazelnuts, apricots and grapes in the period of 2021-2050 is also expected. Meteorological droughts are not the only challenges Turkey might have to face in the future, however. Climate change is projected to affect many regions in Turkey, most notably Mediterranean, Aegean, Black Sea and Western Anatolian regions. While the intensity of the scarcity of exceeding usage water is expected to be high in some provinces; the intensity of diminishing surface waters, floods, soil losses, forest fires and decreasing agricultural activity is projected to be medium. Agriculture, tourism, ecosystem services and biodiversity are some of the most susceptible sectors in the face of climate change.

On the other hand, due to increased droughts, extreme heat and, decreased rainfalls, agriculture in Turkey is expected to be affected by climate change in the future. According to the “Climate Change and Agriculture” report published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry,10 yield losses in 2030-2039 are expected to be around 6-7% due to climate 10 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Table 1: The Impacts of Climate Change and Susceptible Sector/Regions in Turkey

Impacts Intensity Susceptible Regions Susceptible Sectors and Themes

Change in river basin Ecosystem services and Low All regions regimes biodiversity Diminishing surface Agriculture, water distribution Medium West Anatolian Regions waters infrastructure Istanbul, Ankara, Aydın, High Urban areas Scarcity of exceeding Nevşehir, Bursa usage water Afyon, İzmir, Kayseri, Medium Agriculture, industry, energy Muğla, Manisa Black Sea and South- The survival of the agricultural Floods Medium eastern Anatolian Regions farmer, human health Mediterranean, Black Sea Tourism, ecosystem services, Soil loss / salinity Low and Aegean Regions biodiversity, marine products The survival of the agricultural Soil loss / loss of quality Medium South-western Anatolia farmer, human health, shallow of soil lakes and wetlands

Coastal Erosion Low Black Sea Region Fishing, unemployment

Black Sea Region, Degradation of marine Ecosystem services and Low Mediterranean and ecosystems biodiversity Aegean Regions

Forest fires Medium Western Anatolia Tourism, agriculture

Migration of species to other areas in order to Low Mediterranean region Tourism, agriculture, food security survive Decreasing agricultural Mediterranean and Agriculture (employment), food Medium productivity Aegean coastal areas security Lowering Hydro-Energetic Low Mediterranean region Energy, industry potential Lowering production of Agriculture, food security, water Low Mediterranean region sea products distribution networks

Source: Turkey’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2.2. Emissions equivalent in 1990, this number has increased to 6.4 tonne CO2 equivalent in 2018. Since it is a newly industrialised country, the have been increasing Looking at the sectoral distributions of greenhouse steadily in the last few decades in Turkey. According gas emissions in Turkey, energy comes first (373.1 to TURKSTAT data11, greenhouse gas emissions have Mt), followed by industrial processes and product increased 137.5% in 2018 (219.4 Mt), compared use (65.2 Mt), agriculture (64.9 Mt) and finally to 1990 levels (520.9 Mt). While greenhouse gas waste (17.8 Mt). This demonstrates the fact that emissions per capita was calculated as 4 tonne CO2 the energy sector alone makes up about 71.6% of 11 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

all greenhouse gas emissions. This sector mainly waste makes up approximately 3.4% of greenhouse includes transportation, electricity and heat, gas emissions. A similar trend could be seen in the construction, manufacturing, and fuel combustion world as well; since the energy sector is responsible etc. On the other hand, while industrial processes for 73% of global greenhouse gas emissions, while and product use roughly makes up about 12.5%, agriculture is responsible for 12% and waste 3.4%.12

Graphic 5: The share of GHG emissions by sector in 2018

Energy

Industrial processes and product use

Agriculture

Waste

Source: TURKSTAT

Moreover, the energy sector also had the largest On the other hand, 63.1% of CH4 emissions share in CO2 emissions. In 2018, 85.8% of total CO2 resulted from agriculture, 20.3% from waste, 16.6% emissions originated from the energy sector; while from energy and 0.03% from industrial processes energy and heating were responsible for 35.5% of and product use; while 70.1% of N20 emissions it. Additionally, 13.9% of CO2 emissions resulted resulted from agriculture, 15.7% of waste, 9.5% from industrial processes and product use and of energy and 4.7% of industrial processes and 0.3% resulted from agriculture and waste. product use.

Table 2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gases

Million tonne CO2 equivalent Change Change in 1990- in 2017- 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 2018 (%) (%) Total 219.4 298.8 398.9 472.6 497.7 523.8 520.9 137.5 -0.5 Emissions

CO2 151.5 229.8 314.4 381.3 401.2 425.3 419.2 176.7 -1.4

CH4 42.4 42.6 51.3 51.4 53.9 54.2 57.6 35.8 6.2

N2O 24.8 24.7 29.6 35 37.4 38.8 38.9 56.8 0.2 F-gases 0.6 0.7 3.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.2 739.1 -1.9

Source: TURKSTAT 12 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

While emissions have increased further since Turkey also released its Seventh National 1990, a decline in total emissions (including CO2, Communication, which was prepared in line with CH4 and F-gases) could be observed from 2017 to its liabilities under UNFCCC. This communication 2018. Overall, it can be seen that all greenhouse put forward Turkey’s current policies and actions gases have increased considerably with F-gases to fight against climate change, and it underlined coming first, followed by CO2. The significantly high its commitment to the Paris Agreement. It also increase of F-gases is especially alarming, taking disclosed that the Ministry of Environment and into consideration they have increased by 739.1% Urbanisation is in the works to prepare the “2018- since 1990. It is quite alarming because, although 2022 Strategy Document”, while attaching great F-gases are not present in the atmosphere as much importance to responding to climate change. Since as other gases, they produce a global warming approximately 83% of the Turkish population lives in effect up to 23,000 times greater than CO2. The 30 metropolitan municipalities, one of the primary F- gases are usually used as substitutes for ozone- targets was determined as preparing Local Climate depleting substances, since they do not harm the Change Action Plans. atmospheric ozone layer. They are utilised by several sectors and applications. While some types of them Though Local Climate Change Action Plans have are used in electronics sector and cosmetic and not been released yet; Black Sea Climate Action Plan pharmaceutical industry, some are used for heating has been released in July 2019 as the first of the and air-conditioning purposes, or as blowing seven regional climate change action plans, which agents for foams and as an insulating gas. Because are expected to be presented in due time.14 Black of its adverse effects on environment, more climate Sea Region was prioritised since (I) the sea water friendly alternatives should be created rapidly.13 temperature has risen to a record level in the last 40 years, (II) rainfalls have increased correspondingly, 3. Implementation of the Current (III) the risk of disaster has increased due to the bumpy structure of the region and (IV) there were Climate Policies many casualties resulting from aforementioned developments. It could be said that the recent In order to fight against climate change and and landslide disasters which cost many lives in integrate climate change-related objectives into its Eastern Black Sea cities such as Trabzon, Rize and development policies, Turkey firstly published the recently Giresun were the main reason why Black Climate Change Strategy, which set forth climate Sea Region was prioritised. Some of the 15 actions actions to be realised in short, middle and long- are: term within the timetable of 2010-2023. • Relocating the population who resides in risky regions, especially the ones close to stream After a short while, Turkey has also released the beds, in accordance with the climate change Climate Change Action Plan and National Climate parameters, Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan • The extermination of the bridges which for the period of 2011-2023. While the Climate completed their lives or have insufficient Change Action Plan set forth some climate section width, actions in several action areas such as buildings, • Increasing the capacity of the culverts in the transport, industry, waste, land use and forestry sections of the Black Sea Coastal Road that and adaptation to climate change; National Climate prevent rainwater from reaching the sea, Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan • Creating water lines and tunnels on the Black aims at defining objectives for water resources Sea Coastal Road and at certain points of the management, agriculture sector and food security, infrastructure of the highways that are at risk, ecosystem services, biological diversity and forestry, to allow the floods to be transmitted to the sea, risk management, public health and • Making inspections at the facilities operating crosscutting issues in adaptation. in the region, to avoid spoiling the natural structure of the riverbeds, • Training local authorities on climate change and its impacts, 13 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

• Carrying out disaster risk analyses of critical at the bottom with other G20 countries such as infrastructure facilities such as drinking water, the USA, Russian Federation, Argentina, and Saudi wastewater treatment and waste storage, Arabia and the non-G20 countries such as Ukraine • Transforming rainwater and sewage waters into and Vietnam. The table indicates that Turkey’s INDC separate systems, is “critically insufficient” and that if all countries were • Ensuring coordination with relevant institutions to adopt a similar commitment, global warming regarding early warning systems in terms of would exceed 4°C. It demonstrates that Turkey’s life and property safety in areas under natural INDC is not enough to limit global warming below disaster risk. 2°C as required by the Paris Agreement. This, along • Encouraging the use of energy efficient, with the Emissions Gap Report 2019, implicates a climate sensitive and ecological local building rather weak target since Turkey’s emissions are likely materials in the construction of the region and to increase substantially under its current policies. supporting its extension etc. Hence, the calls for improvement in climate policies are continued relentlessly by several actors. According to the statement from Minister of Environment and Urbanisation Murat Kurum, the remaining regional action plans will be released in the following six months. Central Anatolia Climate Action Plan is expected to be published the next.15 Minister Kurum also stated that Climate Change Departments will be established within the provinces and the districts of Turkey. However, Turkey’s existing climate policies are found to be “insufficient” by many organisations. According to the Climate Action Tracker,16 Turkey’s climate performance ranks

Table 3: Climate Policy Rating Table

1.5°C Paris Critically Highly 2°C Insufficient Agreement Role Model Insufficient Insufficient Compatible Compatible 4°C + < 4°C < 3°C < 2°C < 1.5°C << 1.5°C Argentina China Australia Bhutan Morocco Russian Indonesia Brazil Costa Rica The Gambia Federation Saudi Japan Canada Ethiopia Arabia Turkey Singapore Chile India USA South Africa EU Kenya Ukraine South Korea Kazakhstan Philippines Vietnam UAE Mexico New Zealand Norway Peru Switzerland

Source: Climate Action Tracker

14 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

4. Turkey’s International Climate support the fight against climate change. However, it should be noted that Turkey’s emissions have grown Efforts faster than any other Annex I countries. Turkey is the 14th biggest emitter in the G2017, with the share of Turkey has participated in several international 1.2% in global greenhouse gas emissions; while it is negotiations for climate change in the last decades. the 16th biggest emitter in the whole world18. For While its position in UNFCCC has been serving as an this reason, Turkey should be undertaking more obstacle to undertake further efforts, Turkey is not comprehensive policies and acting together with one of the climate change deniers and continues to other countries at the international stage.

Table 4: Biggest Emitters in the G20

Share in global GHG emissions in 2017 excluding Country LULUCF and including LULUCF (in brackets) China 28.9% (25%) USA 13.1% (12.5%) EU-28 9.0% (7.9%) India 7.0% (7.1%) Russia 4.6% (4.3%) Japan 3.0% (2.9%) Brazil 2.3% (2.9%) Indonesia 1.7% (4.9%) Canada 1.6% (1.8%) Republic of Korea 1.6% (1.3%) Mexico 1.5% (1.5%) Saudi Arabia 1.5% (1.4%) Australia 1.2% (1.1%) Turkey 1.2% (1.0%) South Africa 1.1% (1.1%) Argentina 0.8% (0.9%)

Source: UNEP Emission Gap Report 2019

4.1. Turkey’s Position on Significant Climate specified by them. It also required that these targets Agreements would be met within a five-year time frame between 2008 and 2012 and would reduce greenhouse gas 4.1.1. Kyoto Protocol emissions by at least 5% compared with 1990 levels in total. However, the Protocol meant to stabilise On 11 December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was greenhouse gas emissions through non-binding adopted at the third Conference of the Parties to commitments. the UNFCCC (COP3), following the negotiations initiated by the member countries of the UNFCCC, As known, Turkey was not among the first countries to encumber countries to reduce their greenhouse which have ratified the Protocol. It was because gas emissions below levels specified for each of Turkey, as a member of OECD, was included in both them. The protocol required developed countries to Annex I and Annex II of the UNFCCC together with reduce their greenhouse gas emissions below levels the developed countries when it was adopted in 15 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

1992. According to Annex I, Turkey had to make a 4.1.2. Paris Agreement commitment to reduce its emissions unconditionally; and had to provide financing and technology transfer The COP21, realised in Paris on 30 November- 12 to the developing countries according to Annex II. December 2015, turned out to be a milestone for the However, claiming to be a “developing country”, Turkey fight against climate change. It was the conference in objected to the obligations developed countries had which the landmark agreement for climate change, to meet according to the Convention. For this reason, Paris Agreement, was opened for signature among Turkey continued to negotiate in order to have its the leaders of more than 170 countries. The main name removed from both Annex I and Annex II for purpose of the Agreement was to limit the global years, however this request was denied every time. temperature increase to below 2°C above pre- Turkey, deciding to try another strategy, claimed to be industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the in the early industrialisation phase and proposed to temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial be removed from only Annex II, under the “common levels by 2100. The agreement encumbers its parties but differentiated responsibility” principle at the COP6 “common but differentiated responsibilities”: while in 2000. This request was accepted at COP7 held in developed countries must lead the way in terms of Marrakech in 2001, when Turkey was finally removed absolute greenhouse gas emission reduction and from Annex II. Turkey became a party to the UNFCCC should financially assist the most vulnerable countries, as the 189th member on 24 May 2004, in a position developing countries are expected to enhance their different from other Annex I countries. reduction efforts depending on their circumstances.

Turkey could only become a party to the Kyoto The agreement also aims to provide a solid Protocol on 26 August 2009, however not taking a part transparency framework in order to enhance the in the Annex B of the Protocol, it did not undertake any transparency of the actions taken and assess the emission reduction commitments.19 global collective efforts every 5 years. Hence, it would be easier to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.20

Turkey is also one of the signatories of the Paris Agreement. According to its INDC, Turkey has pledged up to 21% reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030.21

Graphic 6: Turkey’s INDC Submission

Source: UNFCCC 16 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

As it can be seen in Graphic 6, Turkey basically With negotiations coming to a dead end, it does not pledges to reduce the increase in its greenhouse seem that Turkey is going to ratify the Agreement gas emissions, compared to the business-as-usual in the immediate future. However, once the Paris scenario, which suggests a very weak ambition. In Agreement enters into force, Turkey’s status will be fact, Turkey’s INDC has been severely criticised by reduced to “observer” at the next COPs and thus many for lacking ambition. According to Climate it will not be able to participate in any decision- Action Tracker, Turkey’s INDC is “critically insufficient”, making mechanism in the status quo. This situation as it is not consistent with Paris Agreement’s goal might put Turkey in a bad position in the long run, of holding global warming to below 2°C. It is especially when a decision is taken which concerns also important to mention that if all governments Turkey as well. It is also important to mention that put forward commitments in the same range as there are only seven countries which have not yet Turkey’s, it is expected that global warming would ratified the Agreement: Angola, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, exceed 4°C.22 On the other hand, the other countries Libya, South Sudan, and Yemen aside from Turkey; that also seem to have critically insufficient INDCs which means Turkey will not be a part of a big are listed as Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, US, crowd which would be able to support its case. On Ukraine and Vietnam. According to the Emissions the other hand, US President Donald Trump has also Gap Report 2019, Turkey is expected to not only notified the UNFCCC of his intention to withdraw meet its unconditional INDC targets with current the US from the Paris Agreement. This would mean policies but is also projected to be more than 15% that, if the US indeed officially withdraws from the lower than its INDC target emission levels. However, Agreement, there would be only nine countries out the report suggests that Turkey’s INDC might be a of the newly founded climate regime. This would rather weak target. For this reason, it has a room for overall mean that Turkey, along with these eight improvement. countries, would be kept out of the new climate regime. This would in turn lead to the exclusion of While Turkey has been one of the initial signatories Turkey when it matters the most. to the Paris Agreement, it has still not ratified the Agreement to date. The reason behind Turkey’s On the other side of the coin, this does not mean reluctance to ratify the Agreement is the same that Turkey quit the game. Negotiations for the problem Turkey has been facing for decades: removal of its name from the Annex I list continue its position in the UNFCCC. Turkey was indeed without a conclusion however; Turkey recognises removed from Annex II, which obliged it to “provide climate change as a threat and remains committed financing and technology transfer to the developing to the Paris Agreement unlike countries ruled by countries” however; it has still not been removed climate deniers such as the US and Brazil. Minister from Annex I. This means that Turkey will not be of Environment Kurum also underlined Turkey’s able to benefit from the main financial mechanism commitment in the COP25, by saying “This is a long- GEF, as it will expire once the Paris Agreement enters term process, but no matter how the negotiations into force in November 2020. Moreover, its position are concluded, we will continue to stand on the in the UNFCCC will hinder it from accessing the side of the world which is concerned with climate new financial mechanism Green Climate Fund as change”.23 While this is a positive development, well. Turkey, reflecting the situation it is in at the Turkey has a long way to go. Since the other Conference of the Parties for years, has been voicing developing countries do not look at Turkey the fact that as a “developing country” it still needs accessing the Green Climate Fund favourably, financing and incentives to realise higher ambitions. Turkey should start to look for alternative ways to Turkey’s request to have its name removed from achieve an ambitious climate goal. UN Secretary- Annex I and access Green Climate Fund has been General Antonio Guterres and COP25 President refused repeatedly on the other side. The main Carolina Schmidt had said before that they would reason for it is because the other developing help Turkey at accessing other sources of finances countries refuse to waive their share of the financial in case the Green Climate Fund is unavailable for mechanism with Turkey, arguing that Turkey already Turkey.24 In the meantime, Turkey can also benefit benefits from EU funds and has a young population. from the IPA funds, especially considering that 17 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

climate change is expected to be a priority for IPA and European leadership on climate action are also III funds. Furthermore, the EBRD, European banks key issues for a large majority of potential voters and most international organisations are also in the across EU11“. 27 middle of a transition into a green economy and will surely support more green projects in the future. For The EP elections revealed that the example, the EIB is also fully committed to become has indeed become a voting criterion for voters. a Climate Bank in the near future. It is expected that The Greens made big gains as they increased the the EIB will end financing fossil fuel energy projects number of seats in the Parliament by 24 compared from the end of 2021 and invest 1 trillion euros to the 2014 elections, gaining 74 of 751 seats. for climate action in the decade to 2030.25 While The Greens also enjoyed success in one of the Horizon 2020 already supports climate change locomotive countries of the EU. The German Green related projects, these projects will also be an Party became the second most preferred party of important element of the upcoming Horizon Europe Germany and got closer to the voting percentage programme. It can be said these organisations can of the CDU, which is led by the German Chancellor create many opportunities for Turkey to put forward Angela Merkel. 28 more ambitious climate actions. If Turkey decides to stay outside of this newly founded climate regime This situation could be observed especially in despite all these opportunities, it will most likely the elections of the President of the European face more challenges on the road ahead. Therefore, Commission as well. While one of the candidates it is more advantageous for Turkey to ratify the nominated by the majority party in Parliament Agreement and become a part of this global alliance (Spitzenkandidaten) was expected to be elected, as soon as possible. the decision to nominate the former German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen, who was 4.2. European Green Deal: A New Area for never a candidate to begin with, created a shocking Cooperation with the EU effect for everyone.

Turkey is not the only country that is affected by In order to prove herself worthy of the job, Ursula climate change. The impacts of climate change von der Leyen had proposed six political guidelines have been also showing themselves in Europe in to implement in her first 100 days, which would the last year, especially in the summer of 2019, as bring together the Europeans on common ideas most of the European countries such as Belgium, and priorities. The first and foremost one was France, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, undoubtedly “A European Green Deal”. With the Spain, Portugal have experienced the hottest June European Green Deal, von der Leyen aimed to make and July for the first time in 2019. Moreover, the Europe the first climate-neutral continent in the possibility of the forthcoming summers in Europe world. To achieve this, von der Leyen pledged to put being as hot as the one in June-July 2019 due to forward the first European Climate Law to ensure climate change has also been underlined by several the 2050 climate-neutrality target into law, and to scientists many times.26 increase the ambitions for 2030. She also proposed to introduce Emissions Trading System to cover the While climate change has not been a main priority maritime sector and reduce the free allowances for the EU until this point, the negative effects of allocated to the airlines, along with Carbon Border climate change raised further awareness among Tax to avoid carbon leakage. the citizens of the EU. According to a public opinion survey from Ipsos MORI, published on 16 April 2018, Ursula von der Leyen was elected the new 77% of potential voters, mostly the youth, across 11 Commission President, also with the support of The EU Member States identified global warming as an Greens and The Progressive Alliance of Socialists important criterion when deciding who to vote for and Democrats, which expected more ambitious in the upcoming EP elections. These countries were climate actions from the next Commission President. listed as Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, France, Particularly for this reason, von der Leyen was Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the Netherlands. obliged to raise her ambitions even further. In the The survey revealed that “environment protection first 100 days of her term, von der Leyen presented 18 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

the European Green Deal and put forward European most at risk of carbon leakage due to international New Deal Investment Plan and Just Transition trade and high indirect emission costs. According Mechanism accordingly. Furthermore, the Climate to these guidelines, a stable compensation rate Pact was formed to give voice to regions, local of 75% will be set in the new period, which is communities, civil society, industry, and schools on reduced from 85% compared to the previous green transformation. Most importantly, von der ETS trading period. Compensation for non- Leyen Commission proposed the first European efficient technologies will be excluded and it will Climate Law, which binds the EU to the goal of be conditional upon additional decarbonisation achieving climate-neutrality by 2050, in accordance efforts by the companies concerned. The revised with the Paris Agreement. While the Farm to Fork guidelines will enter into force on 1 January 2021 and Biodiversity Strategies were expected to be and will be applicable for the period 2021-2030. published next, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused a delay in the release. Nevertheless, these strategies were published by the Commission on 20 May 2020, 4.2.1. Current Climate Trends and Projections and proved wrong the opinions stating that the EU in the EU will push aside the Green Deal and its components due to the COVID-19 crisis. In fact, it could be seen According to the WRI, the EU is the 3rd biggest in the communication papers that the EU took a emitter in the world.33 The greenhouse gas lesson from the COVID-19 crisis, and enriched both emissions have been steadily decreasing in the EU, strategies accordingly. Acknowledging that the reaching its lowest level in 2018 since 1990. Total COVID-19 pandemic was a result of the degradation greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 23.2% and of biodiversity in the Biodiversity Strategy, the EU stood at 4.392 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent for remarked the links between human health and the the EU and the UK in 2018. When Brexit is taken health of ecosystems.29 From Farm to Fork Strategy, into consideration, greenhouse gas emissions on the other hand, pointed out the importance of reduction since 1990 could be counted as 20.7%. a “robust and resilient food system” which would On the other side, greenhouse gas emissions per 30 function under all kind of circumstances. capita were down in 2018 with 8.9 tonnes of CO2 equivalent, much lower than 12.2 tonnes of CO2 Moreover, it was declared following the Leaders’ equivalent in 1990. Summit on 17-21 July 2020 that “Climate action will be mainstreamed in policies and programmes Greenhouse gas emissions have also decreased financed under the MFF and NGEU”. Thereby, it is in most sectors between 1990 and 2018, except determined that an overall climate target of 30% for transportation. While agriculture, residential will apply to the total amount of expenditure from and commercial and waste management have the MFF and NGEU, in line with the objective of all contributed to the decrease in emissions, the EU climate neutrality by 2050. All EU expenditure largest decrease occurred in energy supply and is expected to be consistent with Paris Agreement industry. 34 objectives.

It is also expected that the Commission will be putting forward in the first semester of 2021 proposals on a carbon border adjustment mechanism at the latest by 1 January 2023, to make up additional own resources for the 2021- 2027 EU long term budget. 31

The European Commission also put forward revised guidelines on the EU ETS, which is the world’s biggest carbon market.32 The revised guidelines will focus on the 10 sectors and 20 sub-sectors 19 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Table 5: Total GHG emissions by country (incl. internal aviation, indirect CO2 and excl. LULUCF) in 1990-2017 (Million tonnes of CO2 equivalents)

Share in 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 EU-28 EU-28 5722.9 5397.8 5287.2 5362.0 4912.5 4470.3 4483.1 100% Belgium 147.9 157.6 154.5 148.9 137.1 121.6 119.4 2.7% Bulgaria 102.6 75.5 59.8 64.5 61.1 62.2 62.1 1.4% Czechia 199.8 158.7 151.1 149.5 141.7 129.5 130.5 2.9% Denmark 72.1 80.1 73.2 68.8 65.5 50.8 50.8 1.1% Germany 1263.2 1138.2 1064.7 1016.5 967 931.8 936 20.9% Estonia 40.5 20.3 17.4 19.3 21.3 18.3 21.1 0.5% Ireland 56.5 60.3 70.3 72 63.4 61.7 63.8 1.4% Greece 105.6 111.8 128.9 138.9 121 98.2 98.8 2.2% Spain 293.3 335.3 397.1 452.6 370.1 351.8 357.3 8.0% France 556.6 553.8 567 570.7 528 477.3 487 10.8% Croatia 32.4 23.2 26.1 30.3 28.4 24.6 25.5 0.6% Italy 522.1 538.3 562.1 589.2 514.7 443.7 439 9.8% GCASC 6.4 7.9 9.2 10.2 10.3 9.1 10 0.2% Latvia 26.5 13 10.6 11.6 12.7 11.6 11.8 0.3% Lithuania 48.6 22.5 19.6 23 20.9 20.5 20.7 0.5% Luxembourg 13.1 10.7 10.6 14.3 13.4 11.6 11.8 0.3% Hungary 94.2 75.9 73.9 76.2 65.7 61.3 64.5 1.4% Malta 2.3 3 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.5 20.7 0.1% Netherlands 226.4 239.3 229.8 225.8 224.1 207.5 205.8 4.6% Austria 79.6 80.9 82.1 94.5 86.8 81 84.5 1.9% Poland 475 445.7 396.3 404.3 413.1 392.3 416.3 9.3% Portugal 60.8 70.8 84.3 88.1 71.7 71.1 74.6 1.7% Romania 248.9 187.8 143.6 151.7 124.4 117.2 114.8 2.6% Slovenia 18.7 18.8 19.1 20.6 19.7 16.9 17.5 0.4% 73.4 53.3 49.2 51.3 46.4 41.8 43.5 1.0% Finland 72.3 72.8 71.3 71.2 77.4 57.2 57.5 1.3% Sweden 72.7 74.7 70.4 68.6 66.4 55.7 55.5 1.2% The UK 809.9 767.6 741.9 726.2 642.1 541.5 505.4 11.3% Turkey 219.8 248.4 300.5 340.6 404.6 483.4 537.4 12.0%

Source: EEA (online data code: env_air_gge)

Germany was the biggest emitter in EU-28 in 2017, emissions more than doubled since 1990. followed by the UK, France, Italy, Poland, and Spain. On the other hand, greenhouse gas emissions were The transition to a low carbon economy in 2050 lowest in Malta, followed by Greek Administration has been the EU’s ultimate target in its fight against of Southern Cyprus, Latvia, Luxembourg, and climate change. Raising the climate ambitions Slovenia. If we take Turkey into account, it can be higher had already been discussed by the EU seen that Turkey is the second biggest emitter with institutions before however climate change had not a share of 12% in the EU. While most EU Member been considered the most important priority. The States decreased their greenhouse gas emissions EU had already declared its 2020, 2030 and 2050 in the last three decades, Turkey’s greenhouse gas climate targets, albeit not very ambitious ones. 20 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

The EU is already on track to achieve its 2020 in the European Green Deal. According to a study climate and energy goals, which comprises 20% carried out by Agora Energiewende, an economy- cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 wide 55% reduction target is “technically and levels, 20% EU energy from renewables and 20% economically feasible to implement”, given that improvement in energy efficiency. According to the further measures are taken domestically and EU- EEA,35 the EU reduced its greenhouse gas emissions wide37. However, the European Parliament calls for by 23.2% and the share of renewables increased to even higher ambitions for the 2030 target. On 28 18% in 2018 compared to 1990 levels. May 2020, Parliament’s Committee on Environment, Public Health and Food Safety discussed a proposal The EEA estimated that final energy consumption in by Swedish MEP Jytte Guteland on the EU’s updated the EU went up in 2018, for the 4th consecutive year, climate target for 2030.38 Referring to the Emissions by 0.1%. The final energy consumption increased Gap Report 2019, which highlighted the fact that the most in buildings by 8.3% in 2014-2017, the global emissions must be reduced by 7.6% followed by transport where the increase was 5.8%. annually to meet the 1.5°C target; the MEP stated In the meantime, the primary energy consumption that the EU should be reducing CO2 emissions by decreased by 0.9% in 2018. Taking all these trends 65% in order to achieve the target. However, there into consideration, the EEA warns that achieving is no consensus reached on the issue yet. While the the 2020 energy efficiency target seems to be leftist parties welcome this ambition, conservatives increasingly difficult. mostly favour 50% reduction.

On the other hand, the EU’s 2030 climate and Amidst the discussions on the issue, European energy goals are in question in the moment. The Commission President von der Leyen announced original 2030 key targets for the period from 2021- during her speech at the State of the Union 2020 2030 were determined as: that the 2030 climate target will be raised to at least • At least 40% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions 55% compared to 1990 levels.39 To catch up with from 1990 levels, the new target, the Commission will revise all of • At least 32% share for renewable energy, the EU’s climate and energy legislation accordingly. • At least 32.5% improvement in energy For this, the EU will have to further increase energy efficiency. efficiency and the share of renewable energy.

The EEA analysis also put forth that the Member The European Commission raised its ambitions in States’ efforts are not yet in line with the target accordance with its impact assessment report “An of 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. EU-wide assessment of National Energy and Climate Accordingly, it is estimated that Member States’ Plans”. 40 This assessment demonstrates a different current policies can only a 30% reduction by 2030 scenario than the EEA analysis. According to the and carrying out all reported planned policies could assessment carried out by the Commission, the bring total reduction to 36%. While the analysis share of renewable energy could reach 33.1-33.7% states that “the share of renewable energy is not in 2030 under existing and planned measures and yet increasing fast enough to reach the EU target”, exceed the 2030 renewables target. EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson asserted recently that 2030 renewable energy target is set Energy efficiency would result in 29.7% for primary to be surpassed by a small margin36. However, the energy consumption and 29.4% for final energy 2030 climate target is deemed to be insufficient in consumption. These reductions fall short on the order to reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions target of 32.5% reduction by 2.8% for primary in line with the Paris Agreement targets. The von energy consumption and 3.1% for final energy der Leyen Commission had stated that it will put consumption. Since the existing measures seem forward an impact assessment plan to “increase to be insufficient for the achievement of the 2030 the EU’s greenhouse gas emission reductions energy efficiency target, the Commission aspires to target for 2030 to at least 50% and towards 55% review and revise the Energy Efficiency Directive, compared with 1990 levels in a responsible way”, and the specific targeted provisions of the Energy 21 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Performance of Buildings Directive, if needed. It is Turkey, as an accession country, should take heed also important to mention that final and primary of the European Green Deal, which is expected to energy consumption must be reduced by 39- shape the EU’s not only internal but also external 41% and 36-37% respectively to achieve the 55% politics. But in which way does it concern Turkey, an greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. EU candidate country that is also in a customs union with the EU? Most importantly, the assessment demonstrates that the emissions reduce by 41% below 1990 The EU’s transition concerns Turkey in two under existing and planned measures and that the dimensions: firstly because Turkey is an accession EU would be able to exceed its 40% reduction target country which aims to be a part of the Union and by a small margin. secondly because the EU is the main trading partner to Turkey with which it partakes in the Turkey-EU On the other hand, the Committee on Environment, Customs Union. Public Health and Food Safety of the European Parliament adopted an amendment on the EU When we think of the first dimension, we must climate law on 8 October 2020. The MEPs called remind ourselves that Turkey is obliged to carry for emissions to be reduced by 60%, instead of the out some reforms on the road to membership. Commission’s 55% emission reduction target.41 According to the 2019 Turkey Report,42 Turkey has While this indicates a reduction in the European some level of preparation in the Environment and Parliament’s previous calls for 65% emission Climate Change acquis. In regard to climate change, reduction target, it still suggests a more ambition the report asserts that “more ambitious and better than the Commission’s updated target. coordinated environment and climate policies need to be established and implemented”. It also states that Turkey has yet to formulate a national strategy 4.2.2. Implications of the European Green consistent with the EU 2030 climate and energy Deal for Turkey framework and mainstreaming of climate action into other sector policies remains to be weak. It With the European Green Deal and its components is also remarked that Turkey’s existing national in the picture, Turkey should now take steps to strategy and action plan only partially addresses comply with the transition into a green economy. climate change mitigation and only for the short- As mentioned before, Turkey was one of the biggest term. Moreover, the fact that Turkey has still not emitters in the EU in 2017, though it has much lower ratified the Paris Agreement is particularly stressed greenhouse gas emissions per capita. As a relatively upon. While the EU is aiming for climate-neutral newly industrialised country, Turkey’s greenhouse 2050 and accordingly considers updating its 2030 gas emission trend has gotten higher since 1990, climate target; Turkey still has a weak target for in contrast to the decreasing trend of the EU. This 2030 and has no target at all for 2050. The report might be a problematic issue in the future, since the also mentions that Turkey should be aligning its EU aims to transform and restructure its economy in legislation with the Emission Trading Directive and the pursuit of a green economy. the EU’s economy-wide greenhouse gas monitoring mechanism. The need to establish an alignment plan for the Carbon Capture and Storage Directive and to initiate alignment on emissions standards for new cars is also touched upon.

By adopting a strong “green deal diplomacy”, the EU will focus on convincing and supporting other regions and countries to adopt their share of promoting more sustainable development. The EU will also put an emphasis to the ecological transition of its immediate neighbourhood. According to the Commission, work is underway on a green agenda 22 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

for the Western Balkans. It is disappointing to see that Turkey was not included in this initiation however, there is still a chance Turkey might have its green agenda sometime soon.

When it comes to the second dimension, it should be underlined that the EU is Turkey’s largest export partner by far and it is the largest source of investments. Turkey is also quite integrated with the EU economy, thanks to the Turkey-EU Customs Union, which covers industrial products and processed agricultural products. While the Customs Union has been quite beneficial in accelerating the trade between the two parties; the problems arising from its asymmetric structure and limited scope the Paris Agreement an essential element for all (the fact that it does not cover services, public future comprehensive trade agreements. Before, procurement, and agriculture) revealed the need for the French President Emmanuel Macron had even its modernisation. However, the political problems said that France will not sign any trade agreements between Turkey and the EU obstructed the with countries which do not comply with the Paris modernisation of the Customs Union. Nevertheless, Agreement.45 Therefore, Turkey should ratify and the calls for the modernisation of the Customs implement the Paris Agreement if the modernisation Union from Turkey have not ceased yet. Before that of the Customs Union is its ultimate goal. Even just happens, Turkey must implement some reforms in ratifying the Agreement but not updating might the Environment and Climate Change chapter of become a problem in the future. the EU acquis. As known, Turkey-EU Customs Union does not have any provisions for the protection of Turkey aims to extend the scope of the Customs the environment. However, all EU FTAs now include Union to services, public procurement, and a TSD chapter, which seeks to ensure that the EU’s agriculture. According to the European Green Deal, partners follow international requirements for the EU’s trade policy opens to the door for trade sustainable development. and investment in green goods and services while promoting climate-friendly public procurement. While the TSD chapter is already a significant Industrial value chains, especially energy-intensive component of the existing FTAs, it is expected that sectors, will play a great role by reducing their it will play an even bigger role in the near future, carbon footprints. They will also speed up the since the European Green Deal remarks that “trade green transition by providing affordable, clean policy can support the EU’s ecological transition”.43 technology solutions and by developing new Accordingly, it is stated that the Commission will be business models.46 Regarding agriculture, the EU exerting more effort to make sure the provisions seeks to ensure food sustainability and empower in the TSD chapter of the EU trade agreements the consumers and all actors in the food chain. With will be implemented, and this will be ensured by the Farm to Fork Strategy,47 the Commission seeks the appointment of a Chief Trade Enforcement to pursue the development of “Green Alliances” Officer. In fact, the EU has already appointed Denis on sustainable food systems with its partners Redonnet on 24 July 2020 as the first Chief Trade through its external policies, including international Enforcement Officer, who will also function as the cooperation and trade policy. The EU trade policy Deputy Director-General in the Directorate-General is expected to contribute to boost cooperation for Trade.44 with third countries in key areas such as animal welfare, the use of pesticides and the fight against The most recent trade agreements of the EU all antimicrobial resistance. Furthermore, all chemicals, include a binding commitment of the Parties to ratify materials, food, and other products in the European and effectively implement the Paris Agreement. market are expected to fully comply with relevant Furthermore, the Commission is planning to make EU regulations and standards. 23 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

The most concerning part of the European Green from the global competition, Turkey must start Deal would be the establishment of an efficient working on the transition to the green economy. carbon pricing mechanism. The Commission is expected to propose to revise the Energy Taxation 5. The Way Ahead Directive to make sure that taxation is aligned with climate change objectives. The EU gives As stated earlier, the energy sector is the main importance to the risk of carbon leakage in the culprit behind the rising greenhouse gas emissions cases when production is transferred from the trend in Turkey. In 2018, the energy sector solely EU to other countries with lower ambition for was responsible for about 71.6% of all greenhouse emission reduction, and when EU products are gas emissions.48 Turkey has the highest rate of replaced by more carbon-intensive imports. Since growing energy demand among OECD countries this situation would jeopardise the global emission over the last 15 years.49 reduction efforts, the Commission will propose a carbon border adjustment mechanism for pre- According to the BP Statistical Review of World determined sectors, if the levels of ambition Energy 201950, total primary energy consumption worldwide remain different in the future. This way, in Turkey amounted to 153.5 million tonnes of oil the EU will make sure that the prices of imports equivalent in 2018, increasing about 52.7 million will reflect their carbon content more accurately. tonnes of oil equivalent over a decade. Turkey was the 18th biggest consumer of total primary energy Taking all these factors into consideration, in the world; it was also the 5th biggest consumer Turkey could come out of this new era either in Europe. Accordingly, the share of total primary advantageously or disadvantageously, depending energy consumption in Turkey was 1.1% in the on how quickly and accurately it reacts. In order world. The total primary energy consumption to not lose its position as one of the biggest grew by 0.5% in 2018, compared to the 2017 exporters to the EU and to avoid getting excluded levels.

Graphic 7: Total Consumption and Consumption Per Capita of Primary Energy in Europe in 2018

Source: BP

On the other hand, the consumption per capita countries with the lowest primary energy per capita was relatively smaller in Turkey than that of consumption. The consumption per capita in 2018 many European countries and both developed was 75.5 gigajoules per capita, and it could be seen and developing countries. In fact, the table that it also has decreased by 0.9% compared to demonstrates that Turkey is one of the European 2017. 24 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Table 6: Primary Energy: Consumption by Fuel

2017 2018 Million oil tonnes equivalent Oil Gas Natural Coal Nuclear Energy Hydroelectricity Renewables Total Oil Gas Natural Coal Nuclear Energy Hydroelectricity Renewables Total

Austria 13.1 7.8 3.1 - 8.7 2.8 35.5 13.4 7.5 2.9 - 8.5 2.8 35.0 Belgium 33.7 14.1 3.1 9.6 0.1 3.5 64.1 34.1 14.5 3.3 6.4 0.1 3.8 62.2 Czechia 10.4 7.2 15.6 6.4 0.4 1.8 41.8 10.6 6.9 15.7 6.8 0.4 1.7 42.1 Finland 10.3 1.6 4.0 5.1 3.3 3.8 28.1 10.7 1.8 4.3 5.2 3.0 4.3 29.3 France 79.1 38.5 9.3 90.1 11.1 9.4 237.5 78.9 36.7 8.4 93.5 14.5 10.6 242.6 Germany 119.0 77.2 71.5 17.3 4.6 44.4 333.9 113.2 75.9 66.4 17.2 3.8 47.3 323.9 Greece 16.0 4.1 4.8 - 0.9 2.2 28.0 16.0 4.1 4.7 - 1.3 2.4 28.3 Hungary 8.3 8.5 2.2 3.6 * 0.7 23.5 8.8 8.3 2.2 3.6 0.1 0.8 23.7 Italy 62.0 61.5 9.6 - 7.8 15.3 156.3 60.8 59.5 8.9 - 10.4 14.9 154.5 Netherlands 39.6 31.0 9.1 0.8 * 3.9 84.5 40.9 30.7 8.2 0.8 * 4.2 84.8 Norway 10.1 3.9 0.8 - 32.1 0.7 47.6 10.4 3.9 0.8 - 31.3 0.9 47.4 Poland 31.7 16.5 49.8 - 0.6 4.9 103.4 32.8 17.0 50.5 - 0.4 4.4 105.2 Portugal 12.0 5.5 3.2 - 1.3 3.8 25.8 11.5 5.0 2.7 - 2.8 3.9 26.0 Romania 10.3 9.6 5.4 2.6 3.3 2.2 33.4 10.2 9.3 5.3 2.6 4.0 2.0 33.4 Spain 65.0 27.3 13.4 13.1 4.2 15.7 138.8 66.6 27.1 11.1 12.6 8.0 16.0 141.4 Sweden 15.4 0.7 2.0 14.9 14.7 6.8 54.4 14.8 0.7 2.0 15.5 14.0 6.6 53.6 Switzerland 10.9 2.7 0.1 4.6 7.7 0.8 26.9 10.5 2.6 0.1 5.8 7.9 0.9 27.8 Turkey 49.2 44.3 39.5 - 13.2 6.6 152.7 48.6 40.7 42.3 - 13.5 8.5 153.5 Ukraine 9.9 26.0 25.7 19.4 2.0 0.4 83.4 9.6 26.3 26.2 19.1 2.2 0.6 84.0 United 78.0 67.8 9.1 15.9 1.3 21.1 193.2 77.0 67.8 7.6 14.7 1.2 23.9 192.3 Kingdom Other 62.5 26.1 34.1 8.4 14.9 11.4 157.3 62.4 25.9 33.6 8.3 17.9 11.7 159.8 Europe

Source: BP

When the consumption is sorted by fuel, it can be coal however it has already declared its intention to seen that Turkey consumes fossil fuels (oil, coal and reduce its dependence on foreign sources in energy natural gas) quite more than renewables. According production by starting new works to find more coal to the BP, oil was the most preferred primary energy mines and developing the ones at hand. According power (46.6 Mtoe) in 2018, followed by coal (42.3 to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Mtoe) and natural gas (40.7 Mtoe). While the share Turkey’s lignite reserve has increased over 11 billion of oil and natural gas dropped in 2018 compared to tonnes since 2005 and reached 19.3 billion tonnes.51 2017; the share of coal increased in the same time However, Turkey’s insistence on further increasing period. This might stem from the depreciation of the use of coal has been criticised by many, since Turkish lira since Turkey is an importer of both oil and coal is the biggest contributor to anthropogenic natural gas. That is not to say Turkey does not import climate change. Regarding coal production, Turkey is

* Less than 0.05. 25 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

the second largest lignite producer in the world, and since Turkey would be even more dependent on it was in the 5th place of the largest increases in 2018 Russian natural gas with the project. Moreover, Turkey with an increase of 13.7 Mt.52 This happened in spite has already started drilling operations for natural gas of the decreasing trend since the lignite production and oil in the Eastern Mediterranean in order to reduce decreased worldwide in 2018 by 2.5%. On the other its energy dependence on foreign resources. hand, Turkey also aims to diversify its energy resources. Turkey has begun to work on establishing nuclear Turkey, on the other hand, consumed hydroelectricity power generation in the last few decades. Turkey 13.5 million tonnes of oil equivalent. While already started the construction of its first nuclear hydroelectricity is sometimes known to be a renewable power plant, Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, in 2018 with resource and climate-friendly, there are some disputes the cooperation of the Russian Federation and it is on whether it actually is. According to researchers, expected that the first unit of Akkuyu Nuclear Power big dam projects can jeopardise the river ecosystems Plant will be commissioned in 2023. Furthermore, and fish population and they can harm the forests, Turkey signed an international agreement with Japan wildlife habitat and agricultural lands.56 It also releases in 2013 for the construction of the second nuclear , a quite strong greenhouse gas emissions, plant project which was supposed to take place which contributes to climate change 84 times greater in Sinop; however the incompatibility in cost and than over a 20-year period.57 In turn, project schedule with Japan and France resulted in it is also affected by climate change and droughts; the halting of the project.53 Despite some perceptions, therefore it is possible to encounter energy supply this does not mean that Turkey has cancelled the security issues. project. While Japan has already withdrawn for the project, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Most importantly, renewable energy has been playing Fatih Dönmez indicated recently that the construction a great role in expanding power generation in Turkey might continue in the case Turkey reaches into an for the last decade. Turkey has a high potential for agreement with another supplier in the future.54 The renewable energy due to its geographical location. It cancellation of the project was actually welcomed by could top the list of the countries with the renewable the environmentalists in Turkey, since nuclear power energy capacity by taking advantage of its solar, wind can also jeopardise the environment if handled wrong. and geothermal energy potential. Also, as a water- Fukushima and Chernobyl accidents have been the stressed country, Turkey could benefit from renewable biggest examples in this regard. Thus, Turkey must pay energies since it can meet its demand for electricity attention to some areas such as the safety of nuclear without consuming water and releasing greenhouse installations, protection against radiation, radioactive gas emissions. waste management as well as protection of nuclear facilities against malicious attacks. Turkey’s Climate Change Strategy demonstrates Turkey’s aim to increase the share of renewable energy Turkey also inaugurated the TurkStream gas pipeline, in electricity generation to 30% by 2023 (including which will directly carry Russian natural gas to southern hydroelectricity). Within this framework, all the Europe through Turkey, in January 2020. In the first line technical and hydraulic potential will be utilised, and of this landmark energy project, it is expected that 20,000 MW of wind power and 600 MW of geothermal 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas will directly enter power generation capacity will be reached. On Turkey with no intermediate country, and it will meet the other hand, the Eleventh Development Plan of the natural gas needs of 15 million households. In the Turkey foresees that the share of renewable energy second line of the project, another 15.75 billion cubic in electricity generation will go beyond the expected metres of natural gas are aimed to be transferred to the and increase to 38.8%.58 European market, especially south-eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, Greece, North Macedonia, According to the data shared by Minister Dönmez, Serbia and Hungary.55 With the TurkStream project, the share of renewables in electricity generation has Turkey aims at becoming a “regional energy hub” been increasing since hydroelectric power plants and ensuring the security of natural gas supply, supplied 34.3% of the electricity generated in the while taking advantage of lower costs for natural gas first five months of 2020, followed by wind power imports. However, there are also some opinions which plants (8.8%), geothermal (3.6%), solar power plants imply that it might jeopardise Turkey’s supply security (3.5%) and biomass (1.8%).59 With the potential 26 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Turkey has, it can further increase this share in the belonging to the Ministry of Environment and near future. Especially considering that the cost of Urbanisation and several municipalities, the particulate installing renewable energy has hit new lows due to matter (PM10) air pollution rate in the 29 municipalities technology improvements, economies of scale and of Turkey decreased by 32% in April.64 Furthermore, the fierce competition in auctions,60 by investing more measures taken in the fight against COVID-19 led to a in renewable energy Turkey could further increase its decrease in daily greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey capacity. According to the Global Trends in Renewable by 17.4% as of 30 April 2020.65 However, these gains Energy Investment 2020 report, costs for electricity might be lost in the not too distant future. Minister of generated from new solar photovoltaic plants in the Environment and Urbanisation Murat Kurum stated second half of 2019 were 83% lower than it was in the recently that the six thermal power plants, which previous decade.61 As of 1 August 2020, the Energy were shut down due to their lack of environmental Market Regulatory Authority will start to implement investment in the beginning of the year, were granted “Green Tariff”, which aims at providing electricity one-year temporary working licenses. This has been produced by only renewable resources. This way, the criticised by several environmental organisations consumers will be able to choose whether they want to along with the Hunutlu Thermal Power Plant which is use a more environment friendly alternative. However, planned to operate in Adana. However, Turkey must the prices stemming from this tariff is expected to be stop investing in coal plants as soon as possible. As higher than the current price tariff. In line with the known, Zonguldak was one of the most vulnerable Green Tariff, residential consumers are likely to pay cities which were shut down in the COVID-19 crisis 63% higher than the current price tariff, while the along with the 30 metropolitan cities. Since Zonguldak businesses are likely to pay 23% higher.62 The prices hosts seven thermal power plants, there are many are on the expensive side at the moment however it is people who came down with lung cancer, chronic expected that they will “decrease with the support and obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma, which incentives the country gives to the renewable energy make the habitants even more vulnerable to crises sector”.63 These could create great opportunities for such as COVID-19. This situation demonstrates that Turkey to switch from fossil fuels to renewable, and the production of coal not only accelerates climate thus drop the greenhouse gas emissions further. change; but it also causes health problems and premature death. Especially considering Turkey produces lignite, which is known as the lowest grade Conclusion coal. While lignite contains low energy and high moist, it also causes higher concentrations of CO2 than hard As a country that is vulnerable to climate change coal. Thus, Turkey would actually benefit if it stopped but also has the capacity to fight with it, Turkey incentivising and invested in more sustainable energy must take more climate action. Starting with more sources instead. environmentally friendly and sustainable practises in both industry and agriculture; Turkey should place Climate policies are not prioritised by politicians in “sustainable development” in the centre of its growth Turkey yet, however this is bound to change in the near strategy. For this to happen, Turkey must firstly ratify future. A public opinion survey66 on climate change the Paris Agreement and update its climate and energy perception shows that at least 60% of the citizens commitments in line with its goals. are concerned about climate change. Respondents are especially concerned about the climate disasters, COVID-19 pandemic recently showed that it is actually as approximately 70% of them stated that climate possible to cut back greenhouse gas emissions in a disasters increased in the recent years. Furthermore, short time. To avoid being infected by this disease, 52% of the respondents indicated that “the impacts of people had to stay home and abstain from traveling climate change are already being felt right now”, while unless it was necessary, and factories had to either 12% said that they will be felt in the upcoming 10 years. shut down or reduce their operations. Moreover, most While concerned about the impacts of climate change, countries closed their borders to the other countries, the majority of the respondents do not believe that and domestic and international flights had to be the central government exerts any effort to tackle it. suspended indefinitely. All these, in turn, led to the According to the survey, only 16% of the respondents decrease in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. think that the existing efforts are sufficient, while 55% According to the data of air quality measuring stations of the respondents find them insufficient. 27 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

On the road to sustainability, states are not the only 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario.71 ones who should act on the climate crisis. Local However, this was deemed to be insufficient for the administrations, even the citizens have a role to play C40 Deadline 2020 Programme, which is why Istanbul in the fight against climate change. The same public Metropolitan Municipality is now committed to prepare opinion survey also demonstrated that approximately a climate action plan that is in line with the Programme. 60% of the respondents think that local governments Recently, Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoğlu also do not make sufficient effort in the fight against climate declared that Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality change. This is concerning since local governments has already provided electricity consumption from cannot be excluded from the fight against climate renewable energy sources by 0.03%, and expressed his change. On the contrary, due to the close proximity intention to increase this rate to 18% in 2024, which will to its community, local governments can act rapidly be the end of his term of office. Moreover, Imamoğlu and more accurately since they tend to be more also remarked that in a short time they would like to knowledgeable about the community and the announce the year Istanbul will reach 100% renewable location they are responsible for. Especially considering energy goal.72 that 92.3% of the population in Turkey resided in cities in 2018 (which increased to 92.8% in 2019),67 which On the other hand, individuals are also very important is quite above the global average of 55.3%,68 local in the fight against climate change. It was the European governments also should put forward greenhouse gas youth who have set the EU in motion with their protests emission inventories and strategies to tackle climate all over Europe, asking for more ambitious climate change. The first municipality to put forward a climate action. The most important examples to these protests action plan in Turkey was Gaziantep Metropolitan are Fridays for Future led by the Swedish teenager Greta Municipality. Gaziantep Metropolitan Municipality Thunberg and movements. These aimed at reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by movements did not remain restricted to the EU, as the 15% compared to the 2011 levels by 2023 by the protests spread all over the world in a short time. As a means of this plan.69 While some of the metropolitan result of these movements, the protesters, the youth in municipalities such as Istanbul, Bursa, , Izmir, particular, became “agents of change” since they could Kocaeli, Denizli, Kahramanmaraş, Hatay have published make their voices heard loud and clear to the European climate action plans, some of them (Erzurum, Aydın, authorities. Which means that they did not only raise Konya etc.) are in the preparation phrase. awareness on climate change but also played a critical role in reshaping European politics. As seen by this With a population of more than 15.5 million, which movement, by asking for more and being mindful makes up about 19% of the entire Turkish population, of their carbon footprint, individuals can also play an Istanbul is known to be the biggest city of Turkey.70 The important role in the fight against climate change. capital city Ankara and Izmir follows Istanbul with the populations of approximately 5.6 million and 4.3 million Turkey also took a part in this movement. Turkish youth inhabitants respectively. Thus, it is important for these came together with several civil society organisations cities to take action as soon as possible, along with the and called for more concrete steps to be taken in the vulnerable cities that are on the Mediterranean coast. fight against climate change during the Fridays for Since Istanbul is the city with the highest greenhouse Future. However, it demonstrated the fact that the gas emissions in Turkey, Istanbul Metropolitan media does not do well enough to raise attention on Municipality has started to take a step in this regard. climate change, since the number of Turkish activists On 11 October 2019, by signing C40 Deadline 2020 was quite lower than that of their peers in Europe. While Programme in the C40 World Mayors Summit, the Turkey indeed desires to be a part of the international newly-elected Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoğlu climate regime, things have to change drastically in the committed to develop and implement ambitious near future for that desire to actualise. In sum, in order climate action plans in line with the 1.5°C target of the to avoid getting excluded from the newly-founded Paris Agreement. In line with this commitment, Istanbul climate regime, it is necessary for Turkey to work harder Metropolitan Municipality has also pledged to increase and put forward stringent climate policies. However, at its climate ambitions put forward by the previous the same time, the media should attract more attention administration. Before, Istanbul aimed to reduce the to climate change and the citizens should take more increase in its greenhouse gas emissions by 33% in concrete steps to avoid climate change. 28 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

Footnotes

1 The Global Climate in 2015-2019, WMO, 22.09.2019, Retrieved in July 2020 from https://library.wmo.int/doc_num. php?explnum_id=9936

2 R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Retrieved in May 2020 from https:// www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

3 İstanbul’da dolunun faturası 1 milyar TL’yi buldu, CNN Türk, 06.08.2017, Retrieved in April 2020 from https://www.cnnturk. com/otomobil/istanbulda-dolunun-faturasi-1-milyar-tlyi-uldu

4 2020 Yılı Mayıs Ayı Ortalama Sıcaklıklarının 1981-2010 Normallerine Göre Mukayesesi, Turkish State Meteorological Service, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/sicaklik-analizi. aspx#:~:text=Uzun%20y%C4%B1llar%20May%C4%B1s%20ay%C4%B1%20ortalama,17.6%C2%B0C%20olarak%20 ger%C3%A7ekle%C5%9Fmi%C5%9F

5 Highlights of the latest monthly summaries, Copernicus Climate Change Service, 05.06.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletins

6 Sensoy S., Demircan M., State of Climate in Turkey in 2019, Turkish State Meteorological Service, January 2020, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://mgm.gov.tr/eng/Yearly-Climate/State_of_the_Climate_in_Turkey_in_2019.pdf

7 Demircan B., Gürkan H., Arabacı H., Coşkun M., Türkiye İçin İklim Projeksiyonları, TMMOB Harita ve Kadastro Mühendisleri Odası, 16. Türkiye Harita Bilimsel ve Teknik Kurultayı, 3-6 Mayıs 2017, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.hkmo.org. tr/resimler/ekler/9f9fb20359739a5_ek.pdf

8 Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey may face water scarcity by 2030: Official, 19.12.2020, Retrieved in May 2020 from https:// www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-may-face-water-scarcity-by-2030-official-150022

9 World Water Resources by Country, FAO, Retrieved in May 2020 from http://www.fao.org/3/y4473e/y4473e08.htm

10Özlü H., Engürülü B., Özbek A. K., Aydın A., Özüstün A. Ö, İklim Değişikliği ve Tarım, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Directorate of Agricultural Reform, Retrieved in August 2020 from https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TRGM/ Belgeler/%C4%B0klim%20De%C4%9Fi%C5%9Fikli%C4%9Fi%20ve%20Tar%C4%B1m.pdf

11 Sera Gazı Emisyon İstatistikleri, 1990-2018, TURKSTAT, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://web.tuik.gov.tr/tr/bulletin- display-from-search/

12 Friedrich J. and Ge M., 4 Charts Explain Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Countries and Sectors, WRI, 06.02.2020, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country-sector

13 Fluorinated greenhouse gases, European Commission, Retrieved in November 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/clima/ policies/f-gas_en

14 Bakan Kurum Karadeniz Bölgesi İklim Değişikliği Eylem Planı’nı Açıkladı, Ministry of Environment and Urbanisation, 12.07.2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://webdosya.csb.gov.tr/db/turkce/faaliyetler/karadeniz-bolgesi-iklim- degisikligi-eylem-plani-20190712114929.docx

15 Bir B., Climate change is national security issue: Turkey, Anadolu Agency, 11.12.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https:// www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/climate-change-is-national-security-issue-turkey/1670673

16 Countries, Climate Action Tracker, Copyright © 2009-2020 by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, November 2020, Retrieved in November 2020 from https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/

17 Emissions Gap Report 2019, UNEP, 26.11.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.unenvironment.org/ resources/emissions-gap-report-2019

18 Friedrich J., Ge M. and Pickens A., This Interactive Chart Explains World’s Top 10 Emitters, and How They’ve Changed, WRI, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/04/interactive-chart-explains-worlds-top-10-emitters- and-how-theyve-changed 29 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

19 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Retrieved in May 2020 from http://www.mfa.gov.tr/united-nations-framework-convention- on-climate-change-_unfccc_-and-the-kyoto-protocol.en.mfa

20 What is the Paris Agreement?, UNFCCC, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the- paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement

21 Republic of Turkey, Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, UNFCCC, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www4. unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Turkey/1/The_INDC_of_TURKEY_v.15.19.30.pdf

22 Turkey Summary, Climate Change Tracker, Copyright © 2009-2020 by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 02.12.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://climateactiontracker.org/ countries/turkey/

23 Aydın Z. and Şensoy Boztepe A., Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanı Kurum: Türkiye iklim müzakerelerinde haklı duruşunu sürdürmekte kararlı, Anadolu Agency, 07.12.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/cevre- ve-sehircilik-bakani-kurum-turkiye-iklim-muzakerelerinde-hakli-durusunu-surdurmekte-kararli/1666502

24 Ibid.

25 EU Bank launches ambitious new climate strategy and Energy Lending Policy, EIB, 14.11.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2019-313-eu-bank-launches-ambitious-new-climate-strategy-and-energy- lending-policy

26 smashes European records, Euractiv, 25.07.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://www.euractiv.com/ section/climate-environment/news/heat-wave-smashes-european-records/

27 Majority of voters want political parties to tackle global warming, European Climate Foundation, 16.04.2019, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://europeanclimate.org/resources/majority-of-voters-want-political-parties-to-tackle-global- warming/

28 2019 European election results, European Parliament, Retrieved in May 2020 from https://europarl.europa.eu/election- results-2019/en/tools/comparative-tool/

29 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, The European Commission, 20.05.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:a3c806a6-9ab3-11ea-9d2d- 01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF

30 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A Farm to Fork Strategy for a fair, healthy and environmentally- friendly food system, The European Commission, 20.05.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/ resource.html?uri=cellar:ea0f9f73-9ab2-11ea-9d2d-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF

31 European Council Conclusions, 17-21 July 2020, European Council, Retrieved in October 2020 from https://www. consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf

32 State of the Union: Commission adopts revised EU Emission Trading System State aid Guidelines*, European Commission, 21.09.2020, Retrieved in October 2020 from hhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1712

33 Friedrich J., Ge M. and Pickens A., This Interactive Chart Explains World’s Top 10 Emitters, and How They’ve Changed, WRI, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/04/interactive-chart-explains-worlds-top-10-emitters- and-how-theyve-changed

34 Trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, EEA, 26.05.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.eea.europa. eu/publications/trends-and-drivers-of-eu-ghg

35 Climate change: Significant drop in EU emissions in 2018 but further effort needed to reach 2030 target, EEA, 10.12.2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/climate-change-significant-drop-in

36 EU set to slightly surpass 2030 renewable energy goal, Euractiv, 16.06.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www. euractiv.com/section/energy/news/eu-set-to-slightly-surpass-2030-renewable-energy-goal/ 30 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

37 Öko-Institut and Agora Energiewende, How to Raise Europe’s Climate Ambitions for 2030: Implementing a -55% Target in EU Policy Architecture, August 2020, Retrieved in August 2020 from https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin2/ Projekte/2020/2020_07_Raising-EU-Ambition/185_A-AW-EU_Ambition_WEB.pdf

38 Schulz F., EU lawmakers debate 65% climate target proposal, Euractiv, 29.05.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https:// www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eu-parliaments-climate-committee-divided-over-65-climate- target/

39 State of the Union: Commission raises climate ambition and proposes 55% cut in emissions by 2030, European Commission, 17.09.2020, Retrieved in October 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ ip_20_1599

40 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, An EU-wide assessment of National Energy and Climate Plans - Driving forward the green transition and promoting economic recovery through integrated energy and climate planning, 17.9.2020, Retrieved in October 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/ PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0564&from=EN

41 EU climate law: MEPs want to increase emission reductions target to 60% by 2030, European Parliament, 11.09.2020, Retrieved in October 2020 from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200907IPR86512/eu-climate- law-meps-want-to-increase-emission-reductions-target-to-60-by-2030

42 2019 Turkey Report, European Commission, 29.05.2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/ neighbourhood-enlargement/sites/near/files/20190529-turkey-report.pdf

43 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A European Green Deal, The European Commission, 11.12.2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/european-green-deal-communication_en.pdf

44 European Commission appoints its first Chief Trade Enforcement Officer, European Commission, 24.07.2020, Retrieved in August 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1409

45 Riotta C., Macron rejects trade deals with countries outside Paris climate accord, Independent, 25.09.2018, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/macron-paris-climate-accord-agreement-trade-deal-us- trump-un-nicaragua-a8554916.html

46 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A New Industrial Strategy for Europe, The European Commission, 10.03.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-eu-industrial- strategy-march-2020_en.pdf

47 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, The European Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, A Farm to Fork Strategy for a fair, healthy and environmentally- friendly food system, The European Commission, 20.05.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/ resource.html?uri=cellar:ea0f9f73-9ab2-11ea-9d2d-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF

48 Sera Gazı Emisyon İstatistikleri, 1990-2018, TURKSTAT, 31.03.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/ Bulten/Index?p=Sera-Gazi-Emisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2018-33624

49 Turkey’s Energy Profile and Strategy, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Retrieved in June 2020 from http:// www.mfa.gov.tr/turkeys-energy-strategy.en.mfa#:~:text=Turkey%20has%20the%20highest%20rate,electricity%20 markets%20in%20its%20region.

50 Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 – 68th Edition, BP, June 2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www. bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats- review-2019-full-report.pdf

51 ETKB 2021 Yılı Bütçesi TBMM Plan ve Bütçe Komisyonunda, Republic of Turkey, 11.11.2020, Retrieved in November 2020 from https://enerji.gov.tr/haber-detay?id=724

52 COAL INFORMATION: OVERVIEW (2019 edition), IEA, August 2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.iea.org/ reports/coal-information-2019 31 WHERE DOES TURKEY STAND ON THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME?

53 Karakaş B., Sinop’ta nükleer santral projesinin durdurulması iptal anlamına gelmeyebilir, DW, 02.07.2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.dw.com/tr/sinopta-n%C3%BCkleer-santral-projesinin-durdurulmas%C4%B1-iptal- anlam%C4%B1na-gelmeyebilir/a-49427034

54 Temizer M., Bakan Dönmez: Sinop’ta nükleer santrali başka tedarikçi ile yapabiliriz, Anadolu Agency, 20.01.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/bakan-donmez-sinopta-nukleer-santrali-baska-tedarikci-ile- yapabiliriz/1708075

55 Turkey, Russia inaugurate landmark energy project TurkStream for regional supply security, Daily Sabah, 08.01.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2020/01/08/turkey-russia-inaugurate-landmark- energy-project-turkstream-for-regional-supply-security

56 Nunez C., Hydropower, explained, Natural Geographic, 13.05.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www. nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/hydropower/

57 R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Retrieved in June 2020 from https:// www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/

58 Eleventh Development Plan (2019-2023), Presidency of Strategy and Budget, 15.07.2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from http://www.sbb.gov.tr/logo/eleventh-development-plan-2019-2023/

59 İlk beş aydaki karbonsuz elektrik üretim oranı %52 oldu,Yeşil Ekonomi, 04.06.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https:// yesilekonomi.com/ilk-bes-aydaki-karbonsuz-elektrik-uretim-orani-r-oldu/

60 Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2020, Frankfurt School, UNEP and BloombergNEF, 10.06.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/32700/GTR20.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

61 Ibid.

62 Kara M., Yeşil Tarife tutar mı? YEKDEM ne olacak? Dünya, 06.08.2020, Retrieved in August 2020 from https://www.dunya. com/kose-yazisi/yesil-tarife-tutar-mi-yekdem-ne-olacak/477022

63 Turkey to offer ‘green only’ power tariff as of August, Daily Sabah, 03.07.2020, Retrieved in August from https://www. dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkey-to-offer-green-only-power-tariff-as-of-august

64 Koronavirüs önlemleri hava kirliliğini de azaltıyor, TRT Haber, 21.04.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www. trthaber.com/haber/turkiye/koronavirus-onlemleri-hava-kirliligini-de-azaltiyor-477904.html

65 Koronavirüs Tedbirleri Sera Gazı Emisyonunu Azalttı, Ministry of Environment and Urbanisation, 02.06.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.csb.gov.tr/koronavirus-tedbirleri-sera-gazi-emisyonunu-azaltti-bakanlik-faaliyetleri-29759

66 Climate Change Perception in Turkey 2019, İklim Haber and KONDA Research, July 2019, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.iklimhaber.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/ClimatePerceptionTurkey.pdf

67 Population of province/district centers and towns/villages by years and sex, 1927-2019, TURKSTAT, Retrieved in June 2020 from http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1587

68 The World’s Cities in 2018 Data Booklet, UN, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/ assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf

69 Gaziantep İklim Değişikliği Eylem Planı Yönetici Özeti, Gaziantep Metropolitan Municipality, 2016, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://gaziantep.bel.tr/Gaziantep-CCAP-TR-final-20111102.pdf

70 Provincial in-migration, out-migration, net migration, rate of net migration, 1980-2019, TURKSTAT, Retrieved in June 2020 from TURKSTAT database.

71 Istanbul Climate Change Action Plan Summary Report 2018, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and İSTAÇ, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://www.iklim.istanbul/wp-content/uploads/%C3%96zetRapor%C4%B0ngilizce.pdf

72 İmamoğlu: “İstanbul için %100 yenilenebilir enerji hedefi belirleyeceğiz”, Yeşil Ekonomi, 05.06.2020, Retrieved in June 2020 from https://yesilekonomi.com/imamoglu-istanbul-icin-0-yenilenebilir-enerji-hedefi-belirleyecegiz/ 32

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