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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized Key Agricultural Product Risk Assessment (KAPRA) Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Report on the Financial Resilience of Key Agricultural Products to Climate Change Public Disclosure Authorized 2018 We thank the Government of Japan and the World Bank Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) for the valuable support they provided during the drafting and printing of this publication. This report has been drawn up by the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management for the World Bank. Responsibility for the content of this report rests solely with the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the World Bank. Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH Adickesallee 32–34, 60322 Frankfurt am Main [email protected] http://www.frankfurt-school.de Table of Contents Tables .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figures ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Annexes ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Definitions and Concepts ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1. Background of the Project ............................................................................................................................................. 14 1.2. Project Objectives .......................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.3. Methodology of the Report ........................................................................................................................................... 16 2. Climate Change and Agricultural Sector in Turkey and KMRB ........................................................................................... 18 2.1. Climate change in Turkey............................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2. Climate Change in the Kucuk Menderes River Basin .................................................................................................... 20 3. Methodology for Selection of Key Agricultural Products in Kucuk Menderes River Basin .................................................. 22 3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 22 3.2. Factors taken into Consideration in the Selection of Key Products .............................................................................. 23 3.2.1. Current Macro-Policies ......................................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.2. Current Micro-Policies .......................................................................................................................................... 25 3.2.3. International Literature and Best Practices ......................................................................................................... 26 3.2.4. Stakeholder Comments ........................................................................................................................................ 28 3.3. Methodology for the Selection of Key Agricultural Products ........................................................................................ 30 3.3.1. List of Main Agricultural Products in the Region ................................................................................................. 30 3.3.2. Development of a scoring matrix ......................................................................................................................... 31 4. Climate Risk Analysis for Key Agricultural Products .......................................................................................................... 40 4.1. Impact of Climate Change on Critical Agricultural Products ........................................................................................ 40 4.1.1. Olive (for oil) ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 4.1.2. Tomato (industrial) ............................................................................................................................................... 46 4.1.3. Milk (cow) ............................................................................................................................................................. 51 4.1.4. Fig (dried) .............................................................................................................................................................. 57 4.1.5. Outdoor ornamental plants.................................................................................................................................. 61 4.2. Other Effects of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in the Basin ................................................................... 65 5. Agricultural Support and Financing Mechanisms for Climate Change Adaptation in Turkey and Kucuk Menderes River Basin 68 5.1. Agricultural Government Supports for Climate Change Adaptation & Mitigation ..................................................... 69 5.2. Loan Facilities for Climate Change in Turkey and the Kucuk Menderes River Basin .................................................. 72 6. Business Cases and Financing Strategies .......................................................................................................................... 76 6.1. Proposed Business Cases Regarding Resilience to Climate Change in the Kucuk Menderes River Basin ................. 76 7. Limitations of the Study and Suggested Further Studies on Increasing Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kucuk Menderes Region ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 125 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................................ 127 Tables Table 1: Estimated impact of climate change on agriculture over the next 50 years ..................................................................... 18 Table 2: Basic Documents and Policies in the Strategy Regarding Climate Change in the Turkish Agriculture Sector ................. 24 Table 3: Relationship Between KAPRA and the 2018–2022 Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry............... 24 Table 4: International Best Practices Contributing to the KAPRA Product Selection Methodology ................................................ 26 Table 5: Relationship between national and local strategy papers and plans and the KAPRA goals ............................................. 29 Table 6: Indicators and their explanations addressed in the key product methodology ................................................................ 33 Table 7: Indicators and their weights in their group ......................................................................................................................... 37 Table 8: Scores received by products and ranking ............................................................................................................................ 38 Table 9: Key agricultural products to be worked and their characteristic properties ..................................................................... 39 Table 10: Effects of climate change predicted in KMRB between 2021-2050 on olive production chain and adaptation ........... 43 Table 11: KMRB Olive Oil Production Chain in Case of a 10%, 15% and 20% harvest loss ............................................................. 46 Table 12: Effects of climate change in KMRB between 2021 and 2050 on industrial tomato production chain and adaptation 49 Table 13: KMRB Industrial Tomato Production Chain in the event of a 4% to 7% harvest loss ...................................................... 51 Table 14: Effects of climate change in KMRB between 2021 and 2050 on cows’ milk production chain and adaptation ........... 54 Table 15: Potential Effects of Climate Change in the Post-Production Phases of the Milk Production .........................................
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