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Mini and Micro Industries Computer 8410 Bw C.Pdf ith today's multitiered, over- substituted for that of traditional W lapping set of programmable minicomputers, these suppliers find computer classes, where and how themselves in a situation similar to computing can be done and how BUNCH'S dilemma. For example, much it will cost can vary con- SEL and Prime, minicomputer siderably. Computing costs can be manufacturers, have marketing/ anywhere from $100 to $10 million distribution agreements with Con- (Figure 1). In addition, computing vergent Technology, but mini com- devices can include electronic panies must compete with systems typewriters with built-in communica- built from high-performance, tion capability, further increasing the commodity-oriented, 32-bit MOS- choices to be made and the complex- based microprocessors-processors ity of the information processing that provide the same performance market. as the traditional TTL-based pro- What is happening to mini and cessors at a small fraction of the cost. Market pressures have mainframe companies as the micro In short, the forecast could be forced marginal continues to pervade the industry? gloomy for mini companies. Just as One thing is that several traditional the mainframe companies were un- computer firms out of mainframe suppliers, Burroughs, able to respond to the mini, the mini business. Looking to Univac, NCR, CDC, and Honeywell companies will have difficulty mov- compatibles, wary (or BUNCH, for brevity's sake), are ing to meet the micro challenge customers are helping experiencing a declining market create de facto share as mainframe customers select standards. IBM-compatible hardware as a stan- Table 1. Minicomputer technology cir- dard and turn to other forms of com- ca 1970. puting. Fujitsu, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, and NEC supply commodity main- BASIC MINICOMPUTER frames, which are distributed COMPONENT SYSTEM through Amdahl, National, Univac, INDUSTRIES COMPANIES and Honeywell. Power Supplies Optional Packaging Essential The microprocessor-based systems Core Memory Optional are the newest alternative for distrib- Semiconductors CPU and Memories uted computation. New companies (MSI) are forming to develop these pro- Disks and Tapes Peripheral ducts; Burroughs and NCR have dis- Controllers Terminals - tribution agreements with new Operating Systems microprocessor suppliers such as Languages Convergent Technology. As micro- Applications processor technology continues to be System Integration COMPUTER because of the large installed bases, with other companies. Established introduced the Series 1. Several com- proprietary standards, and large small and mainframe computer com- panies, Floating Point Systems, for functional organizations. panies such as Scientific Data Sys- one, were started up to build special tems and CDC attempted to develop signal- and image-processing "niche a line of minis, and other electronics- to supply high-availability and The minicomputer generation related companies looked at the op- cluster-expandable minicomputer portunity to enter the computer systems. In the beginning of the minicom- business. We can make several conclusions puter industry, a product took two No significant minicomputer com- from the data on the minicomputer years to reach the market. This panies were established after 1972. In companies: period began with the start of hard- the late 1970's, IBM decided that ware design and went through writ- distributed departmental computing, Seven successful minicomputer ing an assembler, a minioperating using multichannel distribution companies-or eight percent of system, and utility routines for the (OEM/end user), was not a fad and all tries-survived to enter and sophisticated users. A relatively wide range of technology (Table 1) was re- quired to design logic, core mem- ories, and power supplies; to inter- face peripherals and do packaging; and to write system software, such as operating systems, compilers, assem- blers, and all types of applications software such as message switching. Clearly, this industry was high-tech. The early minicomputer, charac- terized by a 16-bit word length and 4K-word memory, sold for about $10,000. It was small and could be embedded in larger systems (for ex- ample, electronic circuit testers and machine tools); it could be evolved to large system configurations; and it was used for departmental timeshar- ing. Applications varied from factory control to laboratory collection and data analysis, and communications to computing in the office and small business. The original equipment manufacturer, or OEM, concept was established so that hardware and software and software-only applica- tions could be designed and mar- keted in two applications, thereby in- creasing the market for what was basically a general-purpose com- puter. Many more markets were created than could be reached by a single organization with a limited view of applications. From 1968 to 1972, about 100 minicomputer efforts were started by four different kinds of organizations (see box on following page). At least Figure 1. 1984 system price versus machine class. The dots on the ends of 50 new companies were formed by the lines signify the uncertainty of price range. Because these classes are relatively new, prices are changing rapidly. Also the class has a broad defini- individuals who came from estab- tion; that is, a number of products of varying complexity can go by the same lished companies or research labora- name. Products within a class can be anything from boards to complete tories. Some of these later merged systems. October 1984 15 defend themselves in the micro- processor market. Another 16 companies suc- ceeded to a lesser degree and still exist in either diminished or niche segments of the market. Of all organizations, 23 (25%) were successful. While virtually all companies built working computers, 75 percent did not build organizations with any longevity for a variety of reasons, including failure in engineering, failure in market- ing, faulty manufacturing, or insufficient product depth or breadth. Only two of 50 (4%) start-ups succeeded and remained inde- pendent, although nine of 50 (18%) continued in some fashion. For start-ups, merging increased the chance of survival; four of 60 (7%) could be considered winners. The probability of a successful merger was 50-50. An organization that is part of a larger body in some other busi- ness is pretty likely to fail; only HP-one of 23-really made it. A start-up within a large ex- isting company may as well be a stand-alone start-up. Companies selling in a different market or price band were un- able to make the transition. Only DEC made it, but we can argue that DEC was already in the mini business and simply maintained its market when everyone else started making minis. IBM eventually started making traditional minis in the late 1970's with the Series 1 and began claiming a significant market share. The System 3 (cir- ca 1972) was the most successful "business minicomputer." Companies that differentiated their products by using special- ized hardware and software were prone to failure. Vendors COMPUTER that made special computers for modern parts could be used and the of complex software. By 1975, an application such as commun- experience of others could be taken several different operating systems ications or testing (real-time into account. The simplicity of the were available for the various market control) piways failed to make DG product allowed rapid under- segments. successful minis and often failed standing, production, and distribu- DEC converted the PDP-11 to a or fell behind in developing tion, especially to OEMs. The OEM multichip set relatively early and their main product. Specialized form of distribution is particularly entered the board market to compete hardware limited the market in- suited to start-up companies because with microprocessors to some stead of broadening it; although a product is not used in any volume degree. Until just recently, it led the specialized software could until one to two years after the first 16-bit micro market, but now chip- sometimes leverage sales, it was shipment. based micros are commodity parts, typically inadequate when used Prime, another successful start-up and the assembly of personal com- with limited hardware for a minicomputer company, arose under puters has become trivial. DEC single market. different circumstances. Before the failed to license the PDP-11 chips or In the mini generation having a company was established, Bill make them available for broad use, high-performance, low-cost, Poduska, its founder, had built the including the transition to personal general-purpose minicomputer breadboard of a large, virtual mem- computers, so unfortunately the suitable for broad application ory in a NASA laboratory. Prime PDP-11 today is merely another in- ensured getting the largest mar- was thus able to introduce the first of teresting machine that failed to make ket share. DEC, for example, the "32-bit (address) minis" in 1973. the generation transition. had a variety of operating sys- With this new technology, programs DEC introduced Vax-11, a 32-bit tems aimed at the real-time, such as CAD could be run. DEC mini, about six years after Prime in- single user (which laid the foun- didn't provide a large, virtual troduced its model, but at a time dation for the CP/M operating memory capability until 1978 when it when physical memories were large system for personal computers) introduced Vax. enough to support virtual memories and provided communications, The start-up of both DG and and provide optimum cost and per- real-time control, and timeshar- Prime were characterized by superb formance. Because it had much ing. The real-time system was marketing followed by the establish- larger manufacturing and marketing ultimately extended for transac- ment of a large organization to build divisions, DEC quickly regainid the tion processing. Minis became and service in accordance with de- market it had lost to smaller especially useful for business mand. manufacturers including Prime. applications because they were designed for high throughput.
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