Fo rging A A rging Wo rld of Liberty Liberty of rld Un der Law: U.S. N U.S. Law: der ational ational Se curity curity In T he 21st Centur 21st he Forging A World Of y Liberty Under Law U.S. National Security In The 21st Century Final Report of the Princeton Project on National Security G. G. G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter Jo Co-Directors hn Ikenberr hn y and Anne- and y Ma rie rie Sl aughte r, Co-D irector The Princeton Project Papers s The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University FORGING A WORLD OF LIBERTY UNDER LAW U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY Final Paper of the Princeton Project on National Security G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter, Co-Directors September 27, 2006 The Princeton Project Papers Published by The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University he Princeton Project on National Security is a three-year, bipartisan initiative to develop a Tsustainable and effective national security strategy for the United States of America. Under the stewardship of honorary co-chairs George Shultz and Anthony Lake, the Princeton Project brought together leading thinkers on national security from government, academe, business, and the non-profit sector to analyze key issues and develop innovative responses to a range of national security threats. Through the generous support of the Ford Foundation, Mr. David M. Rubenstein, and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, the Princeton Project has: • Convened and published the findings of seven working groups that addressed different aspects of national security—including grand strategy, state security and transnational threats, economics and national security, reconstruction and development, anti-Americanism, relative threat assessment, and foreign policy infrastructure and global institutions; • Held nine conferences in the United States and abroad to explore major issues pertaining to U.S. national security ranging from the use of preventive force to the role of the private sector; • Commissioned seventeen working papers on critical security topics that hitherto had received scant attention. The Princeton Project culminates with the release of this final report by project co-directors G. John Ikenberry and Anne-Marie Slaughter. Over the next nine months the co-directors will present their findings at a series of events in the United States, Europe, and Asia. For copies of Princeton Project working group papers or to learn more, visit the Princeton Project website at www.wws.princeton.edu/ppns. Please direct inquiries to [email protected]. Copyright © 2006 by the Princeton Project on National Security Designed and produced by Rebecca Dull, Office of External Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America CONTENTS Foreword ............................................................................................................................................2 Acknowledgments ..............................................................................................................................4 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................6 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................11 A National Security Strategy for the 21st Century .............................................................................14 Objectives ..................................................................................................................................14 Criteria for a Successful Strategy ................................................................................................17 A World of Liberty Under Law ..................................................................................................18 Major Threats and Challenges ..........................................................................................................33 The Middle East ........................................................................................................................33 Global Terror Networks .............................................................................................................39 The Proliferation and Transfer of Nuclear Weapons ...................................................................43 The Rise of China and Order in East Asia .................................................................................47 A Global Pandemic ....................................................................................................................51 Energy .......................................................................................................................................52 Building a Protective Infrastructure............................................................................................54 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................58 Appendix A: Charter for a Concert of Democracies ..........................................................................61 Appendix B: Executive Summaries of Working Group Reports ........................................................62 Appendix C: Project Participants ......................................................................................................79 Appendix D: Author Biographies .....................................................................................................91 1 FOREWORD or the past two years we have served as the honorary co-chairs of the Princeton Project on FNational Security. During that time the project has undertaken a far-reaching examination of U.S. national security strategy and the international security environment, with the goal of strengthening the intellectual underpinnings of American strategy. The Princeton Project has pursued this goal in a remarkably bipartisan spirit, drawing broadly on the experiences and insights of Republicans and Democrats to produce a report articulating core principles to guide the nation in the decades ahead. We had the privilege to hold leadership positions in the formation of U.S. national security policy during the Cold War and its aftermath – periods when the formulation of clear strategic principles was essential for the protection of U.S. security. Throughout the Cold War, U.S. policy was grounded in the doctrine of containment, first articulated by George Kennan, which aimed to prevent the spread of communism. The containment doctrine influenced all aspects of national security strategy, from the formation of strong alliances with other democracies to support for anti-communist groups around the world. In the end, Kennan was proved right; contained from without, the Soviet Union ultimately crumbled from within. The United States must deal with series of profound changes in the international landscape, including rising new powers, a tightening energy market, increasing anti-Americanism, and a globalized economy. Serious security threats emanate from instability in the Middle East, Islamic radicalism, global terrorist networks, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the spread of infectious diseases, and global warming. At the same time, tremendous opportunities exist for the advancement of democracy, prosperity, and respect for human rights in much of the world. Despite this altered landscape and the many changes in U.S. policy since 9/11, the United States lacks a clear statement of national security principles with broad bipartisan support. The George W. Bush administration has issued two national security strategies since 2002; Democratic groups from the Congress and various think tanks have put forward national security reports and sets of principles. The Princeton Project has benefited from all of these and has tried to build on overlapping areas of consensus in charting America’s future course. As Colin Powell observed in his 2004 address at Princeton University in honor of Kennan’s 100th birthday, “because Kennan could see more deeply, he could predict more accurately.” Following Kennan’s example, the Princeton Project sets forth a security strategy grounded in a systematic and probing assessment of current trends and likely future conditions. 2 This important report is a testament to the outstanding leadership of project co-directors Anne-Marie Slaughter and G. John Ikenberry and a talented and broad-gauged steering committee. It argues for an American grand strategy of forging a world of liberty under law by supporting popular, accountable, and rights-regarding governments; building a liberal international order; and updating rules on the use of force. The strategy’s principles transcend partisan lines. Although their implementation would differ across administrations, their application would strengthen the capacity of the United States to protect the American people and the American way of life for years to come. Anthony Lake George Shultz Georgetown University Hoover Institution 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS he Princeton Project’s aim was to write a collective “X article,” to do together what no one person Tin our highly specialized and rapidly changing world could hope to do alone. Arguably, even someone of George Kennan’s