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Oklahoma City 2017 Mid-Year Retail Market Summary TABLE of CONTENTS

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Oklahoma City 2017 Mid-Year Retail Market Summary TABLE of CONTENTS Oklahoma City 2017 Mid-Year Retail Market Summary TABLE OF CONTENTS Retail Market Summary 1-2 Submarket Map 3 Quick Hits 4-5 North Submarket 6-7 Northwest Submarket 8-9 South Submarket 10-11 Edmond Submarket 12-13 West-Central Submarket 14-15 Moore / Norman Submarket 16-17 Eastern OK County Submarket 18-19 Retail Sales Summary 20 Walkable Retail 21 The information contained herein has been obtained from reasonably reliable sources. Price Edwards & Company makes no guarantee, either express or implied, as to the accuracy of such information. All data contained herein is subject to errors, omissions and changes. Reproduction in whole or in part, without prior written consent is prohibited. Oklahoma City 2017 Mid-Year Retail Market Summary THE RETAIL MARKET Numbers matter in real estate; this influences in the retail market: One, survey is built on the premise that retailers are forgetting how to retail. The numbers matter. But, in this instance, best retailers have always been good at the numbers do not begin to convey the staying in contact with their customers. scale of change in the retail industry nor A big part of which is understanding do they reveal the anxiety that underlies them well enough to know what they the market. want in terms of merchandise and how to best sell it to them. In today’s Overall market vacancy improved world of big data, that should be easy during the first six months of the year enough, but many of the problem to 9.8 percent from 10.6 percent at year- retailers have failed their customers. end. That implies a relatively healthy Does anyone think Gordman’s, Radio and improving market. And there is Shack or Payless has done a good job a lot out there to be pleased about. of this? Two, competition from the The general economy is still holding internet is real and unremitting – which up even with continued low energy really means that Amazon is coming for prices. There are a lot of tenants you. But, as we’ve discussed before, has been growing rapidly since the expanding; most space that has been this is much more nuanced than internet 2009 – 2010 recession. Rents and vacated to date has been backfilled. versus brick & mortar. The two are occupancies are up and there has been The market saw positive absorption morphing together…Amazon and other significant new construction. It is time of nearly 600,000 square feet. Rents, internet retailers are opening brick & for a correction. A correction always particularly for new space, are at all time mortar stores (and need them to reach involves store closures and reduced highs. If only we could stop there. The more customers and raise margins) tenant activity; the amount of leveraged good news has a dark backdrop. Over while, at the same time, brick & mortar buyouts over the last 10 years has 5,000 stores closed so far nationally in stores are racing to enhance their web exacerbated this problem by limiting 2017 and more on the way. Negligible presence both in terms of sales and retailers margin of error in a downturn. income growth locally. Local tenant marketing. This dynamic is changing struggles. Fierce competition from the way people shop. Virtually everyone You add these three major influences internet retailers. browses on the internet, regardless of together and you can begin to where they end up buying a product. understand the level of disruption we So, where does that leave us. Are we in Convenience and price have increased are seeing today. We believe it will a normal cycle or is it the end of retail as importance; the experience is more most likely take another 2 – 3 years to we know it? The truth, as it often does, important. Three, we are in the middle sort out and somewhat normalize the lies in between. We see three broad of a normal real estate cycle. Retail retail market. In the meantime, the OKC TOTAL RETAIL MARKET VACANCY OKC TOTAL RETAIL MARKET INVENTORY 12% 50 GLA SF Freestanding SF 10% 40 8% 30 6% 20 4% (millions of square feet) (millions of square 10 2% 0% 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 market will be very uneven with some last 5 to 7 years, particularly with new saw the results of this with Homeland retailers doing well and others struggling development, out-parcels in front of big & Buy for Less each closing two stores or going out of business. Clear winners boxes and mixed use developments. in 2016. We expect to see fewer new in the interim will be value-oriented Rents for small shop space in these stores this year as the market adjusts tenants, health/personal fitness tenants, developments range from $25 to $35 but the pressure will be on the weaker and tenants who figure out how to per square foot with some rents pushing chains. enhance the shopping experience. $40 per square foot. This often prices Tenants that are expected to struggle out local tenants. It also raises the Movies include fashion tenants, boutiques, and question whether or not national tenants The movie business is about to change department stores. Then there will be can generate the sales to justify these in a big way in Oklahoma City primarily certain classes of tenants – service & rents over time. Our sense is that from the change in state statute allowing grocery for example – that will see less they can but it is probably a pretty thin the sale of liquor in theaters. Warren, of an effect from current changes. Here segment of the market. It will also test who sold their existing Moore theater to is a look at how we expect a few specific our market when some of these spaces Regal, has announced a north Eastern sectors of the market will fare in this come back to the market as second and a Midwest City location. Flix is environment: generation space. poised to enter our market. Expect Alamo Draft House or similar concepts Locals Development to follow. This will put pressure on many One group of tenants getting caught Two significant new developments of the existing theaters to upgrade. All- in the retail crossfire is local tenants. came on line in 2016, The Market at in-all, the next few years should be a This group is always prone to greater Czech Hall anchored by Ross and boon to movie-goers and a source of swings in performance given consumer Academy and Sooner Rose in Midwest growth for retail. sentiment, changes in disposable City anchored by Academy and Hobby income, etc. All the current bad news Lobby. Expect the uncertainty in the Survey Footnote: (you don’t hear much of the good news) market to put most larger development Our survey tracks 29.8 million square has created an environment where on hold for now. There will continue to feet in 255 buildings of over 25,000 many are being more conservative be some strip center development and square feet and 15.3 million square and shoppers are more value driven. the expansion of existing centers, but feet of stand-alone buildings for a total Most local tenants have less flexibility limited large-scale construction. market of 45.1 million square feet. in this environment with staffing, inventory management and marketing. Grocery There continues to be a significant Add higher rents, particularly in infill Oklahoma City has seen nearly 1.5 number of smaller strip centers in the locations, and many local tenants are million square feet of grocery added market (under 25,000 s.f. in size). We getting squeezed. in the last three years led by Walmart, would estimate there are close to 5.7 but also Aldi, Natural Grocers, and million square feet of these properties Rents Sprouts. Add four new 90,000 square in the market. Oklahoma City has historically had foot Winco’s to that equation and a some of the lower retail rents in the new Edmond Crest and that’s a lot of country. That has changed in the additional grocery square footage. We OKC TOTAL RETAIL MARKET ABSORPTION 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 (millions of square feet) (millions of square 0.1 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GLA SF Vacant SF Vacant % OKC Retail Market Totals 29,758,040 2,908,569 9.8% RETAIL SUBMARKET MAP 3 National Market Vacancy rose to 10% in 2nd Quarter from 9.9% 4 National Market Vacancy rose to Oklahoma City Quick Hits 10% in 2nd Quarter from 9.9% Thredup, a second-hand e-commerce site is opening its first store The National Retail Federation projects retail sales growth for 2017 of 3.7% - 4.2% The Energy sector accounts for roughly 3% of OKC’s employment and 10% of earnings Walmart.com sales increased 63%in the 1st Quarter Expected Sales Growth by Segment Online 12.6% Department Stores <7.6%> Health/Personal Care 6.7% 5 2017 Mid-Year Oklahoma City Retail Market Summary NORTH SUBMARKET The North Oklahoma City submarket leads the market both in the total retail square footage and in retail demand. Out of the 6.9 million square feet of space in the submarket, nearly half is along the Memorial Road corridor. Vacancy declined to 6.2 percent at mid-year from 8.9 percent at year-end. Much of this improvement was the sale of the vacant Quail Springs Macy’s to Lifetime Fitness who plans to tear it down and build a stand-alone facility.
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