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OKLAHOMA CITY 2019 Year End Retail Market Summary TABLE of CONTENTS OKLAHOMA CITY 2019 Year End Retail Market Summary TABLE OF CONTENTS Retail Market Summary 1-3 Quick Hits 4-5 North Submarket 6-7 Northwest Submarket 8-9 South Submarket 10-11 Edmond Submarket 12-13 West-Central Submarket 14-15 Moore / Norman Submarket 16-17 Eastern OK County Submarket 18-19 Retail Investment Sales 20 Submarket Map 21 The information contained herein has been obtained from reasonably reliable sources. Price Edwards and Company makes no guarantee, either express or implied, as to the accuracy of such information. All data contained herein is subject to errors, omissions and changes. Reproduction in whole or in part, without prior written consent is prohibited. OKLAHOMA CITY 2019 Year End Retail Market Summary THE RETAIL MARKET Retail has been nothing if not exciting real estate. We might as well start over the last five years as the with internet sales which now industry has undergone significant account for around 10 percent of all transformation. What has often sales; growth is still double digits but been lost in this process has been the rate of growth has slowed. The that the industry is in pretty good more exciting news is the dynamics shape. National retail vacancy is between digital sales and physical around 4.7 percent (CoStar) or 6.1 stores. Retailers continue to figure out percent (Cushman) depending on the the right mix of internet sales, store source and has been relatively stable size, distribution, etc. Nine of the despite the well-publicized closings top ten internet retailers now have (and, obviously) the not so well physical stores which they’ve learned publicized openings. Per the National help their sales. This optimization will Retail Federation, retail sales have continue to be refined. grown an average of 4 percent per year since 2010. Locally, our survey Our favorite trend in retail right now have performed well over the last bears out the same trends albeit at a is a return to best practices – focusing ten years and these retailers are slightly higher vacancy. The market on customer service, store layout driving much of the current sales ended the year with an 8.7 percent and in-store marketing; supply-chain growth. This has been fueled by vacancy, an improvement from 9.8 and inventory management. One of both changing demographics and percent a year ago as some of our the positives of the disruption of the shopping patterns of younger big box vacancies have been filled past few years has been the swing shoppers in particular. Fitness, and some new pre-leased space has of power back to the consumer. This health and non-traditional uses are been added to the market. is part of the experiential model you seeing an increased presence in hear so much about, making the retail as well. Health and healthcare This retail transformation and change shopping experience meaningful is becoming more retail, driven by will continue but there is some clarity to the consumer. Another industry both a desire to be more healthy on the direction of the market which focus has been discounters and and rising healthcare costs. This should help both retailers and retail value-oriented retailers. Discounters includes a wide-variety of fitness OKC TOTAL RETAIL MARKET VACANCY OKC TOTAL RETAIL MARKET INVENTORY 12% 50 GLA SF Freestanding SF 10% 40 8% 30 6% 20 4% (millions of square feet) (millions of square 2% 10 0% 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1 and fitness classes as well as urgent Oklahoma City retail as well; but, improvement to discounters like care facilities, cosmetic procedures, some local factors influence what Ollie’s & At Home, as well as fitness and clinic and healthcare providers. we are seeing. Chief among them users like Vasa & Urban Air. The Healthcare accounts for around 25 are the effects of the current energy explosion of marijuana dispensaries percent of household expenses and downturn on the economy in general has clearly also played a role in it is only going up. and disposable income in particular. maintaining and improving retail The fact that Oklahoma City lacks occupancies. Economic concerns, While overall industry occupancy the density of many other markets particularly related to energy, are remains strong, its never been more changes the nature of our market the main concern for 2020 and the true that premium locations are in for retailers (although we all know reason that our outlook is for a stable demand, especially for category we’ll drive further than the average but unremarkable retail performance leaders. Main & main centers, class shopper). And, no breaking news in the upcoming year. A malls, top 20 percent locations here, Oklahoma’s incomes are are at a premium and it’s reflected lower than much of the rest of the in low occupancies and rent. Part of country. Therefore, we see even Survey Footnote: this has been due to the perceived more emphasis on value-oriented Our survey tracks 30.9 million safety in this time of change. The retailers. It is harder to convince square feet in 269 buildings of over most exciting ideas in retail, both for high-end retailers to locate here. It 25,000 square feet and 15.9 million the consumer and retailers, is coming is more difficult to get big projects square feet of stand-alone buildings in the form of technology. Examples off the ground; Oak, the next phase for a total market of 46.8 million abound, from Amazon’s high-tech, of Chisholm Creek, the Cotton Mill square feet. There continues to be highly automated warehouses, to site – all are working on preleasing a significant number of smaller strip in-store robots that clean floors and and these local factors add a degree centers in the market (under 25,000 scan shelves. Biometric cameras can of difficulty. s.f. in size). We estimate there are track and identify shoppers in stores close to 11 million square feet of these to tailor a shopping experience to the The current environment makes it properties in the market. person, combined with the field of more challenging at the other end artificial intelligence and virtual reality of the spectrum as well - for local applications. These will lead to some mom and pop retailers to identify amazing innovations in retailing over locations and weather economic the next several years. swings. Despite these headwinds, as noted, market vacancy has All these trends are playing out in improved, owing much of the OKC TOTAL RETAIL MARKET ABSORPTION 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 (millions of square feet) (millions of square 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GLA SF Vacant SF Vacant % OKC Retail Market Totals 30,948,249 2,695,144 8.70% Pictured: Shop Good | @shopgoodokc Pictured: Coffee Slingers | @coffeeslingers Shoppers spent an average of OKLAHOMA CITY $361.90 on holiday items QUICK HITS over the five-day period, up 16% from A record 189.6 million U.S. $313.29 during the consumers shopped (combined, in stores same period last year and online) from Thanksgiving Day through - Marianne Wilson, Chain Store Age. Cyber Monday this year, up 14% over last years 165.8 million, according to a report by National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics - Marianne Wilson, Chain Store Age Trends in Pop-Ups • Digital Natives going brick-and-mortar • An explosion of local entrepreneurism • The rise of upstart brands • A new launching pad for global retailers • The creative use of retail space by non- retail users • A renewed relationship between retail and hospitality • A return of showmanship to the retail arena • The convergence of art and commerce • The reinvention of established con- cepts via experience • The embrace of social over isolated digital connection and the physical manifestation of consumer preference for experience over commodity. - Cushman & Wakefield, Pop-Up-Palooza Pictured: OKC Holiday Pop Up Shops - Photo by Lindsey Torres Photography 4 The 10 E-Commerce trends that will define 2020, as predicted by Absolutnet are: 1. Amazon stops being unstoppable: Cracks are starting to appear in the e-commerce conglomerate’s previously impenetrable armor. 2. Malls begin their comeback: Out with the tired park- and-shop formula, in with the modern interaction and experience-based destination. 3. Our in-store behavior will be linked to our online data: Facial recognition and device tracking transform in-store visits into valuable data as retailers get closer to true omnichannel. 4. The shipping wars begin: Fast & free shipping will be an option for every retailer. 5. Consumers begin selling their own privacy and data: The rise of “Privacy by Design” plus consumers choosing which brands can access their information. 6. China’s rising digital influence: The world leader in digital commerce will unleash its shoppers and technolo- gies on the world. 7. The year of distribution centers: Fulfillment, order management and logistics are the new battleground for the digital consumer 8. Reaching peak ads: Brands and retailers start looking beyond the Google/Facebook duopoly 9. In-fridge, in-car and in-house delivery: Retailers take delivery into people’s vehicles, households, and appli- ances. 10. Hello, interactive email: The inbox is the new browser. - Dan Berthiaume, Chain Store Age According to the American Customer Sat- isfaction Index (ACSI), which found that customer satisfaction in the third quarter dropped — for the fourth consecutive quarter — 0.9% to a score of 75.7 (on a scale of 0 to 100). - Marianne Wilson, Chain Store Age 5 2019 Year End Oklahoma City Retail Market Summary NORTH SUBMARKET The North Oklahoma City submarket has seen improvement with NORTH OKC SUBMARKET some big box vacancy being filled, notably the former Toys R Us & ABSORPTION 150 Hobby Lobby with At Home.
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