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Very Active June Bringing H1 Volume Close to €20Bn. Executive Summary

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Very Active June Bringing H1 Volume Close to €20Bn. Executive Summary THE NORDIC PROPERTY MARKETS July 2019 Very active June bringing H1 volume close to €20bn. Executive summary MONTHLY TRANSACTION VOLUMES (JUNE 2019) Arrows show change compared to previous month SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK THE NORDICS 2.6EURbn 1.0EURbn 1.4EURbn 1.3EURbn 6.3EURbn EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 NORDIC PROPERTY MARKET MONTHLY SUMMARY JUNE 2019 MACRO ECONOMY 3 NORDIC PROPERTY MARKETS 4 – Swedish property market 5 June – Norwegian property market 6 – Finnish property market 7 EUR 6.3bn – Danish property market 8 137 deals NORDIC CAPITAL MARKETS 9 – Real estate equities 10 NORWAY FINLAND – Equity issues and IPOs 11 – Preference shares 12 SWEDEN EUR 1.0bn EUR 1.4bn – Corporate bonds 13 34 deals 22 deals CONTACT DETAILS 14 EUR 2.6bn 47 deals This monthly research report on the Nordic property market is produced by Pangea Property Partners in close cooperation with our research partners in Finland and Denmark (see below). DENMARK © Pangea Property Partners EUR 1.3bn 34 deals CONTACT Pangea Property Partners Nordic transaction volume (last 12M) EURbn Number of deals NORDICS 8 160 Mikael Söderlundh +46 73 770 77 90 6 120 [email protected] SWEDEN 4 80 Christian Sahlström +46 72 223 26 07 2 40 [email protected] 0 0 NORWAY Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Kristian Hoem Sw eden Norway Finland Denmark No. of deals +47 99 12 12 94 [email protected] Nordic top transactions (June 2019) Country Property/portfolio Buyer Seller Price (est.) Research partners Finland Merger of Jumbo and Flamingo Elo and Varma Elo and Varma EUR 0.6bn Sweden Logistics and warehouse portfolio Blackstone Corem SEK 4.2bn FINLAND Johan Fager, Mrec Denmark Residential portfolio in Ørestad AXA IM Solstra Capital Partners DKK 1.3bn +35 40 777 29 29 [email protected] Nordic capital markets (June 2019) DENMARK Jakob Dalhoff, Lokalebasen.dk MAJOR EVENTS Listing of Swedish residential property companies John Mattson and K2A +45 26 16 44 86 TOP PERFORMING PREX INDICES PREX Residential (+6.5%) and PREX Warehouse (+4.5%) [email protected] TOP PERFORMING PROPERTY SHARES Catena (+15%), Heba (+13%) and Corem (+12%) Source: Pangea Research, Mrec, Lokalebasen 2 Macro economy REAL GDP 2019F* Arrows show change compared to previous forecasts (bi-annual) EUROZONE NORDICS SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% *Source: IMF (April 2019), Consensus forecast (NIER), Statistics Norway EUROPEAN OUTLOOK GOVERNMENT BONDS (10Y) REAL GDP FORECASTS (Y/Y) 8% 2019F 2020F 2021F 7% Sweden 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% Jun-19 Jun-18 Norway 2.0% 3.1% 2.2% 6% Finland 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 5% Denmark 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% Nordics 1.7% 2.1% 1.7% 4% Ireland 4.1% 3.4% 3.1% 3% Spain 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% UK 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2% Germany 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% France 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1% Italy 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0% Greece 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% UK Italy Russia 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% Spain Russia France Ireland Greece Finland Norway Sw eden Eurozone 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% Denmark Germany Source: Reuters Source: IMF (April 2019), Consensus forecast (NIER), Statistics Norway NORDIC OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK INTEREST RATES (10Y SWAP RATES) INFLATION (CPI) Jun 2019 2020 2. 5% 4. 0% 2019 forecast forecast Interest rate (10Y swap) 0.5% n/a n/a 3. 5% Inflation (CPI) 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 2. 0% 3. 0% Exchange rate (EUR/SEK) 10.56 10.90 10.20 2. 5% Unemployment (%) 6.8% 6.3% 6.3% 1. 5% 2. 0% 1. 0% Interest rate (10Y swap) 1.8% n/a n/a 1. 5% Inflation (CPI) 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1. 0% 0. 5% Exchange rate (EUR/NOK) 9.69 9.30 8.90 0. 5% Unemployment (%) 3.2% 3.7% 3.6% 0. 0% 0. 0% Jun-1 8 Se p-1 8 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun -19 Jun -18 Se p-1 8 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-1 9 Interest rate (10Y swap) 0.2% n/a n/a Sw eden Norway Sw eden Norway Inflation (CPI) 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% Finland Denmark Finland Denmark Exchange rate (EUR/USD) 1.14 1.13 1.18 CURRENCIES (FX-RATES) UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment (%) 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 11 .0 8. 0% 7. 0% Interest rate (10Y swap) 0.3% n/a n/a 10 .0 Inflation (CPI) 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% 6. 0% Exchange rate (EUR/DKK) 7.46 7.46 7.46 9. 0 Unemployment (%) 3.7% 4.5% 4.2% 5. 0% 8. 0 4. 0% The eight consecutive month with falling 7. 0 3. 0% Nordic 10Y swap rates (-17 bps on average in June) 6. 0 2. 0% Generally falling Nordic inflation in June: Jun-1 8 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-1 9 Jun-1 8 Se p-1 8 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun -19 Norway (-37 bps), Finland (-29 bps), EUR/SEK USD/SEK Sw eden Norway Denmark (-29 bps) and Sweden (+2 bps) EUR/NOK USD/NOK Finland Denmark EUR/DKK USD/DKK Source: Historical figures are from Thomson Reuters and forecasts from SEB, May 2019. Historical figures refer to end of month. 3 Property market Nordics TRANSACTION VOLUMES (LAST 12M) Arrows show change compared to last month SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK THE NORDICS 16.3EURbn 9.0EURbn 9.0EURbn 7.2EURbn 41.5EURbn TRANSACTION ACTIVITY NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUMES (EURbn) NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUMES (EURbn, TRAILING 12M) 45 18 40 16 35 14 30 12 25 10 20 8 15 6 10 4 5 2 0 0 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Sweden Norw ay Finland Denmark Sweden Norw ay Finland Denmark Forecast OFFICE PRIME YIELDS (%) OFFICE PRIME RENTS (EUR/SQM/YEAR) 7.0% 800 6.5% 700 6.0% 600 5.5% 500 5.0% 400 4.5% 300 4.0% 3.5% 200 3.0% 100 Sweden Norw ay Finland Denmark Stockholm Oslo Helsinki Copenhagen TOP 10 NORDIC TRANSACTIONS (LAST 12M) # Date Buyer Seller Property/portfolio Country Price (est.) Nordic transaction volume 1 1 Sep-18 Vonovia Starwood, etc. Victoria Park SE SEK ~17.1bn by country (last 12M) 2 Oct-18 Kildare Partners Shareholders Technopolis FI, SE, NO EUR ~1.6bn2 Denmark 3 Jun-18 Danica SEB SEB Pension DK DKK 6.2bn3 17% 4 Jun-19 Elo and Varma Elo and Varma Merger of Jumbo and Flamingo FI EUR 0.6bn Sweden 39% 5 Oct-18 Morgan Stanley Wereldhave Itis shopping centre FI EUR 0.5bn Finland 22% 6 Jan-19 Lilium Castellum Portfolio swap SE SEK 5.2bn Norway 7 Apr-19 DNB Liv SBB i Norden DNB Bank’s HQ NO NOK 4.5bn 22% 8 Dec-18 Victoria Park Akelius Residential portfolio SE SEK 4.7bn Nordic transaction volume of EUR 41.5bn in last 12 m 9 Jun-19 Blackstone Corem Logistics and warehouse portfolio SE SEK 4.2bn 7 out of the 10 largest Nordic deals last 12m are cross-border 10 Feb-19 Allianz/CBRE GIP NRP Logistics portfolio SE, DK SEK 4.0bn 1Property value Q2-report for entire company. 2Property value Q3-report for entire company. 3Real estate included in company takeover. Source: Pangea Research, Mrec, Lokalebasen.dk. 4Property value Q3-report for entire company. Based on transactions above EUR 5m 4 Property market Sweden MONTHLY TRANSACTION DATA (JUNE 2019) YEARLY TRANSACTION DATA (JUNE 2019) CROSS BORDER DEALS (LAST 12M) NO. OF TRANSACTIONS MONTHLY VOLUME 2019H1 LAST 12M FOREIGN BUYERS FOREIGN SELLERS 47DEALS 26.7SEKbn 87.0SEKbn 170SEKbn 22% 15% Arrows show change compared to last month. H1 arrow show change compared to same period last year. TRANSACTION ACTIVITY MONTHLY VOLUMES (SEKbn) VOLUME BY REGION (LAST 12M) 35 >10 SEKbn 30 5–10 SEKbn 25 1–5 SEKbn 20 <1 SEKbn 15 10 TOP 10 LOCATIONS (%) 5 1. Stockholm 39% 2. Västra Götaland 14% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Se p Oct Nov Dec 3. Skåne 12% 2018 2019 4. Östergötland 5% 5. Uppsala 4% VOLUME BY INVESTOR CATEGORY (LAST 12M) 6. Jönköping 3% DIVESTMENTS ACQUISITIONS 7. Södermanland 3% STOCKHOLM 8. Västernorrland 3% Private companies 9. Örebro 3% GOTHENBURG 10. Gävleborg 2% Listed companies Property funds Institutions MALMÖ Public sector Source: Pangea Research All charts based on deals with a property value above SEK 50m. Other investors Half-year volume of SEK 87.0bn, 11% up compared to 2018H1 and the second highest volume ever for the period -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10 % 20% 30% 40% Several large transactions in June with the largest being Sw edish inve stors Foreign investors Blackstone acquiring a logistics and warehouse portfolio from Corem (SEK 4.2bn) TRANSACTION AND RENTAL MARKET PRICING PRIME OFFICE YIELDS IN STOCKHOLM AND 10Y SWAP RATE OFFICE RENTS IN STOCKHOLM (AVERAGE BASE RENTS, SEK/SQM) 8% 8, 500 8, 000 7% 7, 500 6% 7, 000 6, 500 5% 6, 000 4% 5, 500 5, 000 3% 4, 500 2% 4, 000 3, 500 1% 3, 000 0% 2, 500 2006 2007 20 08 2009 2010 2011 2012 20 13 2014 2015 2016 20 17 20 18 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10Y Sw ap rate Prime office yield Stockholm - CBD Prime Stockh olm - Average Source: Pangea Research Source: Strateg Analys 5 Property market Norway MONTHLY TRANSACTION DATA (JUNE 2019) YEARLY TRANSACTION DATA (JUNE 2019) CROSS BORDER DEALS (LAST 12M) NO.
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