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Active Summer with Deals for Over EUR 8Bn in June/July. Executive Summary

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Active Summer with Deals for Over EUR 8Bn in June/July. Executive Summary THE NORDIC PROPERTY MARKETS August 2019 Active summer with deals for over EUR 8bn in June/July. Executive summary MONTHLY TRANSACTION VOLUMES (JULY 2019) Arrows show change compared to previous month SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK THE NORDICS 1.4EURbn 0.9EURbn 0.3EURbn 0.3EURbn 3.0EURbn EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 NORDIC PROPERTY MARKET MONTHLY SUMMARY JULY 2019 MACRO ECONOMY 3 NORDIC PROPERTY MARKETS 4 – Swedish property market 5 July – Norwegian property market 6 – Finnish property market 7 EUR 3.0bn – Danish property market 8 59 deals NORDIC CAPITAL MARKETS 9 – Real estate equities 10 NORWAY FINLAND – Equity issues and IPOs 11 – Preference shares 12 SWEDEN EUR 0.9bn EUR 0.3bn – Corporate bonds 13 16 deals 13 deals CONTACT DETAILS 14 EUR 1.4bn 22 deals This monthly research report on the Nordic property market is produced by Pangea Property Partners in close cooperation with our research partners in Finland and Denmark (see below). DENMARK © Pangea Property Partners EUR 0.3bn 8 deals CONTACT Pangea Property Partners Nordic transaction volume (last 12M) EURbn Number of deals NORDICS 8 160 Mikael Söderlundh +46 73 770 77 90 6 120 [email protected] SWEDEN 4 80 Christian Sahlström +46 72 223 26 07 2 40 [email protected] 0 0 NORWAY Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Kristian Hoem Sw eden Norway Finland Denmark No. of deals +47 99 12 12 94 [email protected] Nordic top transactions (July 2019) Country Property/portfolio Buyer Seller Price (est.) Research partners Norway Kongsberg Technology Park Arctic (syndicate) H.I.G. Capital et al. NOK ~3.1bn Sweden Volvo portfolio Torslanda Prop. Invest. Söderport SEK ~2.3bn FINLAND Johan Fager, Mrec Norway Retail park portfolio Ragde Eiendom Tristan Capital Partners NOK ~1.5bn +35 40 777 29 29 [email protected] Nordic capital markets (July 2019) DENMARK Jakob Dalhoff, Lokalebasen.dk MAJOR EVENTS Delisting of Victoria Park’s preference shares +45 26 16 44 86 TOP PERFORMING PREX INDICES PREX Mixed (+8.4%) and PREX Warehouse (+7.2%) [email protected] TOP PERFORMING PROPERTY SHARES Diös (+20%), Corem (+20%) and K2A (+13%) Source: Pangea Research, Mrec, Lokalebasen 2 Macro economy REAL GDP 2019F* Arrows show change compared to previous forecasts (bi-annual) EUROZONE NORDICS SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% *Source: IMF (April 2019), Consensus forecast (NIER), Statistics Norway EUROPEAN OUTLOOK GOVERNMENT BONDS (10Y) REAL GDP FORECASTS (Y/Y) 8% 2019F 2020F 2021F 7% Sweden 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% Jul-19 Jul-18 Norway 2.0% 3.1% 2.2% 6% Finland 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 5% Denmark 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% Nordics 1.7% 2.1% 1.7% 4% Ireland 4.1% 3.4% 3.1% 3% Spain 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% UK 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2% Germany 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% France 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1% Italy 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0% Greece 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% UK Italy Russia 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% Spain Russia France Ireland Greece Finland Norway Sw eden Eurozone 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% Denmark Germany Source: Reuters Source: IMF (April 2019), Consensus forecast (NIER), Statistics Norway NORDIC OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK INTEREST RATES (10Y SWAP RATES) INFLATION (CPI) Jul 2019 2020 2. 5% 4. 0% 2019 forecast forecast Interest rate (10Y swap) 0.4% n/a n/a 3. 5% Inflation (CPI) 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 2. 0% 3. 0% Exchange rate (EUR/SEK) 10.63 10.90 10.20 2. 5% Unemployment (%) 7.6% 6.3% 6.3% 1. 5% 2. 0% 1. 0% Interest rate (10Y swap) 1.8% n/a n/a 1. 5% Inflation (CPI) 1.9% 2.7% 2.0% 1. 0% 0. 5% Exchange rate (EUR/NOK) 9.74 9.30 8.90 0. 5% Unemployment (%) 3.4% 3.7% 3.6% 0. 0% 0. 0% Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Interest rate (10Y swap) 0.0% n/a n/a Sw eden Norway Sw eden Norway Inflation (CPI) 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% Finland Denmark Finland Denmark Exchange rate (EUR/USD) 1.11 1.13 1.18 CURRENCIES (FX-RATES) UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment (%) 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 11 .0 8. 0% 7. 0% Interest rate (10Y swap) 0.2% n/a n/a 10 .0 Inflation (CPI) 0.6% 1.1% 1.6% 6. 0% Exchange rate (EUR/DKK) 7.47 7.46 7.46 9. 0 Unemployment (%) 3.8% 4.5% 4.2% 5. 0% 8. 0 4. 0% The ninth consecutive month with falling 7. 0 3. 0% Nordic 10Y swap rates (-9 bps on average in July) 6. 0 2. 0% Overall falling Nordic inflation in July: Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Sweden (-38 bps), Norway (-57 bps), EUR/SEK USD/SEK Sw eden Norway Finland (-16 bps) and Denmark (-10 bps) EUR/NOK USD/NOK Finland Denmark EUR/DKK USD/DKK Source: Historical figures are from Thomson Reuters and forecasts from SEB, May 2019. Historical figures refer to end of month. 3 Property market Nordics TRANSACTION VOLUMES (LAST 12M) Arrows show change compared to last month SWEDEN NORWAY FINLAND DENMARK THE NORDICS 15.9EURbn 9.3EURbn 8.8EURbn 6.5EURbn 40.4EURbn TRANSACTION ACTIVITY NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUMES (EURbn) NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUMES (EURbn, TRAILING 12M) 45 18 40 16 35 14 30 12 25 10 20 8 15 6 10 4 5 2 0 0 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sweden Norw ay Finland Denmark Sweden Norw ay Finland Denmark Forecast OFFICE PRIME YIELDS (%) OFFICE PRIME RENTS (EUR/SQM/YEAR) 7.0% 800 6.5% 700 6.0% 600 5.5% 500 5.0% 400 4.5% 300 4.0% 3.5% 200 3.0% 100 Sweden Norw ay Finland Denmark Stockholm Oslo Helsinki Copenhagen TOP 10 NORDIC TRANSACTIONS (LAST 12M) # Date Buyer Seller Property/portfolio Country Price (est.) Nordic transaction volume 1 1 Sep-18 Vonovia Starwood, etc. Victoria Park SE SEK ~17.1bn by country (last 12M) 2 Oct-18 Kildare Partners Shareholders Technopolis FI, SE, NO EUR ~1.6bn2 Denmark 3 Jun-19 Elo and Varma Elo and Varma Merger of Jumbo and Flamingo FI EUR 0.6bn 16% 4 Oct-18 Morgan Stanley Wereldhave Itis shopping centre FI EUR 0.5bn Sweden 39% 5 Jan-19 Lilium Castellum Portfolio swap SE SEK 5.2bn Finland 22% 6 Apr-19 DNB Liv SBB i Norden DNB Bank’s HQ NO NOK 4.5bn Norway 7 Dec-18 Victoria Park Akelius Residential portfolio SE SEK 4.7bn 23% 8 Jun-19 Blackstone Corem Logistics and warehouse portfolio SE SEK 4.2bn Nordic transaction volume of EUR 40.4bn in last 12 m 9 Feb-19 Allianz/CBRE GIP NRP Logistics portfolio SE, DK SEK 4.0bn 6 out of the 10 largest Nordic deals last 12m are cross-border 10 Nov-18 Klövern Shareholders Agora SE SEK 3.9bn3 1Property value Q2-report for entire company. 2Property value Q3-report for entire company. 3Property value Q3-report for entire Source: Pangea Research, Mrec, Lokalebasen.dk. company. Based on transactions above EUR 5m 4 Property market Sweden MONTHLY TRANSACTION DATA (JULY 2019) YEARLY TRANSACTION DATA (JULY 2019) CROSS BORDER DEALS (LAST 12M) NO. OF TRANSACTIONS MONTHLY VOLUME 2019 YTD LAST 12M FOREIGN BUYERS FOREIGN SELLERS 22DEALS 15.1SEKbn 97.7SEKbn 166SEKbn 22% 13% Arrows show change compared to last month. YTD arrow show change compared to same period last year. TRANSACTION ACTIVITY MONTHLY VOLUMES (SEKbn) VOLUME BY REGION (LAST 12M) 35 >10 SEKbn 30 5–10 SEKbn 25 1–5 SEKbn 20 <1 SEKbn 15 10 TOP 10 LOCATIONS (%) 5 1. Stockholm 41% 2. Västra Götaland 14% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Se p Oct Nov Dec 3. Skåne 10% 2018 2019 4. Östergötland 5% 5. Uppsala 4% VOLUME BY INVESTOR CATEGORY (LAST 12M) 6. Södermanland 3% DIVESTMENTS ACQUISITIONS 7. Jönköping 3% STOCKHOLM 8. Örebro 3% Private companies 9. Västernorrland 2% GOTHENBURG 10. Västmanland 2% Listed companies Property funds Institutions MALMÖ Public sector Source: Pangea Research All charts based on deals with a property value above SEK 50m. Other investors Stable transaction market with 22 deals and a monthly volume of SEK 15.1bn in July -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10 % 20% 30% 40% Several large transactions in July with the largest being Torslanda Sw edish inve stors Foreign investors Property Investment acquiring six properties with Volvo as anchor tenant from Söderport (SEK ~2.3bn) TRANSACTION AND RENTAL MARKET PRICING PRIME OFFICE YIELDS IN STOCKHOLM AND 10Y SWAP RATE OFFICE RENTS IN STOCKHOLM (AVERAGE BASE RENTS, SEK/SQM) 8% 8, 500 8, 000 7% 7, 500 6% 7, 000 6, 500 5% 6, 000 4% 5, 500 5, 000 3% 4, 500 2% 4, 000 3, 500 1% 3, 000 0% 2, 500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20 13 20 14 20 15 2016 20 17 20 18 20 19 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10Y Sw ap rate Prime office yield Stockholm - CBD Prime Stockh olm - Average Source: Pangea Research Source: Strateg Analys 5 Property market Norway MONTHLY TRANSACTION DATA (JULY 2019) YEARLY TRANSACTION DATA (JULY 2019) CROSS BORDER DEALS (LAST 12M) NO.
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