Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, March 5

Headlines:

• 99% of Votes: Right-Wing Bloc Slips to 58 Seats, 3 Shy of Majority • Center-Left Pushes Bill Barring Indicted PM from Serving • Netanyahu: Gantz Trying to Steal the Election • PM Declares Victory Among 'Zionists', 'Arabs Not Part of the Equation' • Odeh on Netanyahu: Wouldn’t Know Democracy if it Indicted Him 3 Times • Netanyahu Knew His Lawyer Hired Intel Firm to Spy on Gantz: Report • Thousands of Israelis to be Quarantined as Coronavirus Fears Increase • Amazon to Provide free Shipping to Palestinians after PA Complaint

Commentary:

• Ma’ariv: “‘Wanted: New and Improved Arrangement” - By Ben Caspit, commentator at Ma’ariv • Ha’aretz: “For a ‘Removal Government’” - By Barak Ravid, political commentator at Channel 13 News

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor

News Excerpts March 5, 2020 Times of Israel 99% of Votes: Right-Wing Bloc Slips to 58 Seats, 3 Shy of Majority As votes cast in so-called double envelopes in the elections were being tallied, the Central Election Committee updated the count Wednesday morning, giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and the centrist rival Blue and White led by an extra seat apiece, leaving the premier’s bloc of right-wing supporters at 58 seats. After 99% of the votes were tallied, Likud gained a seat for a total of 36, with the rival Blue and White party also increasing its power from 32 to 33. The Joint List of predominantly Arab parties dropped from 16 seats to 15, while the ultra- Orthodox Shas party dropped from 10 seats to 9. The rest of the parties’ seat totals remained the same: seven for United Torah Judaism (UTJ), seven for Yisrael Beytenu, seven for Labor-Gesher-Meretz and six for Yamina. See also, “With 99% of votes counted, Netanyahu's right-wing bloc slumps to 58 seats” (Ynet News)

Ynet News Center-Left Pushes Bill Barring Indicted PM from Serving Blue & White on Wednesday confirmed it was working on getting a Knesset majority to support a bill that would prevent an indicted prime minister from serving, which would effectively oust current Prime Minister Netanyahu. Blue & White chairman Benny Gantz proposed such a law after the 2019 September elections, but it was struck down at the time by Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman. However, Liberman could now support the legislation, according to a senior source. See also, “Push for Bill Barring Indicted Netanyahu From Forming Coalition Aimed at Forcing Unity Gov't” (Ha’aretz)

Jerusalem Post Netanyahu: Gantz Trying to Steal the Election Netanyahu accused Benny Gantz of trying to steal Monday's election on Wednesday after Gantz began efforts to pass a law that would prevent an indicted MK from forming a government. Speaking at a meeting of the MKs in his right-wing bloc, Netanyahu said the effort to pass the bill would undermine democracy. The leaders of the parties in his bloc vowed to remain united and insist that only Netanyahu form the next government. "This is an effort to divide the nation when we are facing serious challenges like the corona crisis," Netanyahu said in the part of the meeting that was open to the press. "There are also opportunities like US President Trump's plan that require us to be united and respect the will of the people." See also “Netanyahu claims Gantz ‘trying to steal vote’ with bill to block him from power” (TOI)

Ha’aretz PM Declares Victory Among 'Zionists', 'Arabs Not Part of the Equation' Netanyahu doubled down on claiming victory in this week's election, saying on Wednesday that he won among the" Zionist" voters because "Arabs are not part of the equation." The premier made this statement during a meeting with the leaders of the parties comprising his right-wing bloc. The prime minister had spoken to the party leaders on reports from earlier in the day that members of the center- left bloc were trying to promote a bill that would forbid an indicted individual to serve as prime minister – which would block him from having a chance at assembling a coalition. This move is "undermining the foundation of democracy and the voters' will," he claimed. "The left-wing bloc is only comprised of 47 seats," the prime minister said. "The Arabs are not part of this equation that's the will of the people." 2

Jerusalem Post Odeh on Netanyahu: Wouldn’t Know Democracy if it Indicted Him 3 Times Joint List leader Ayman Odeh slammed Netanyahu on Wednesday, saying he doesn’t know what democracy is. “Netanyahu would not know what democracy is even if it indicted him on three different charges,” he wrote on twitter, adding “even if democracy prevented him from forming a coalition three times.” His comments were wry play on the fact that Netanyahu is facing three charges and is now attempting to form a ruling coalition for the third time. See also, “Odeh: 'We don't want anything to do with Blue and White' (Arutz 7)

Ha’aretz Netanyahu Knew His Lawyer Hired Intel Firm to Spy on Gantz: Report Prime Minister Netanyahu was aware that the business intelligence firm CGI Group had been hired to spy on Kahol Lavan leader Benny Gantz, according to a document obtained by TheMarker, ’s business daily. According to the document, Netanyahu’s lawyer Yossi Cohen promised the prime minister that the company would try to gather material on alleged ties between Gantz and a Knesset member from his Kahol Lavan party, Omer Yankelevich. The document provides the first evidence that Netanyahu was personally involved in the effort. On Tuesday, after partial results of Monday’s Knesset election were released, Likud MK Miki Zohar said his party had launched contacts with legislators considered potential defectors to the prime minister’s Likud party. Some sources said Yankelevich was one of the possible renegades who would make a new Netanyahu-led government possible. See also, “'Cyber' Front Company Used to Foot Bill for Spying on Netanyahu Rival Gantz” (The Marker)

Ynet News Thousands of Israelis to be Quarantined as Coronavirus Fears Increase Tens of thousands of Israelis will be required to remain quarantined as cultural, sporting and other public events including celebrations of the upcoming Purim holiday will all be canceled. The Health Ministry on Wednesday issued new guidelines to combat the spread of the coronavirus, including a requirement for anyone returning from France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and Spain to maintain a two-week quarantine. Travelers returning from China, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea, and Italy have already been instructed to do the same. The ministry is instructing anyone who has arrived from any of these countries within the past two weeks to also enter a period of quarantine. Five flights from France, seven from Germany, two from Spain, four from Austria and one flight from Switzerland are all expected to land at the Ben-Gurion International Airport before midnight. Health officials are expected to meet people as they disembark and instruct them in the new guidelines. See also, “Israel dramatically widens coronavirus rules, adds EU nations to quarantine list” (TOI)

Times of Israel Amazon to Provide free Shipping to Palestinians after PA Complaint Amazon on Wednesday said it would provide free shipping on certain orders to West Bank Palestinians, as it does to Israel, after sustaining criticism for offering the benefit to Israeli settlements but not to the region’s Arab population.Last month the Palestinian Authority’s economy ministry sent a letter of complaint to the retail giant over its shipping policy, after the Financial Times reported that Amazon was offering free shipping to settlements in the West Bank for purchases above $49, but not to Palestinians who marked their address as being in the Palestinian territories. See also, “Amazon extends free shipping to West Bank” (Globes)

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Ma’ariv – March 5, 2020 Wanted: New and Improved Arrangement

By Ben Caspit, commentator at Ma’ariv

• The real headline yesterday was the Israeli prime minister’s dramatic revelation: “There were some who suggested I carry out an operation that would set the whole Middle East on fire in order to win the election, but I refused.” Wow. Way to go. Thank you, Mister Prime Minister, for not sending us up in flames (on the other hand, the Arabs would have burned too). But in the same hysteric speech in which Netanyahu divulged this, he also tried to set our streets on fire: “My friends and I will not accept Mr. Gantz’s attempt to steal the election, and millions of citizens are with us.” In this context, Netanyahu’s remarks practically qualify as attempted sedition and a call for anarchy. He was seething over the retroactive ad hominem bill that was reported yesterday, which stipulates that a person who has been charged with criminal offenses cannot form a government. • Set your mind at ease, Mr. Netanyahu. This bill won’t be passed, and for a simple reason: the leaders of Blue and White did not go into politics to imitate you. They are made of different stuff. This doesn’t help them politically. Perhaps the opposite, because you and I both know that if you were Benny Gantz right now, the bill would be in its third reading by now. • How do I know? From the simple fact that in 2008, you voted in favor of a completely identical initiative in the Knesset. The prime minister who was embroiled in criminal offenses back then was Ehud Olmert. Well, that doesn’t count. When it comes to Olmert, it isn’t retroactive and it isn’t ad hominem. What’s more, you and I both know that if you could have induced three Joint List MKs to defect, your government would have been sworn in the minute after you received the mandate from the president. You also would have sworn in a government with the votes of Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniya. Why? Because you can. Because it doesn’t stick to you. Because when you do it, it’s allowed. When others do it, it’s forbidden. • The initiative over the legislation in question began as an innocent case of spin and turned into big noise. It all started with a radio interview that MK Ahmed Tibi gave to Ayala Hasson and Golan Yochpaz on 103FM. Tibi, one of the more creative MKs, hinted to the possibility of enacting such a law, and the spin was born. Let’s move on to MK Ofer Shelah. He was interviewed on Ynet, which posed Tibi’s idea to him. Shelah, who was unfamiliar with this idea, gave the answer that any politician in this situation would give: we will review the idea. The huge brushfire that turned Balfour Street into a disaster area erupted that very moment. Here it comes at last, the scheme of the century. Gideon Saar must have something to do with it somehow as well. • This legislation will not come to fruition. First, it will not hold up under the High Court of Justice’s scrutiny. Yes, the despised High Court of Justice. Second, there’s no majority support for it in Blue and White’s cockpit. They don’t want to be Netanyahu when they grow up. Another, more reasonable idea would be to pass this bill into law only in the next Knesset. In other words, not retroactively. That’s actually not a bad idea: it would mean that Netanyahu couldn’t run in a fourth election [sic]. Classy. It’s supposed to pressure him now to quickly close a deal for an alternating premiership with Gantz.

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• All we need now is a fair and brave mediator that will bring this affair to a close. That mediator is named Reuven (Ruvi) Rivlin. It’s time for a new, brave, improved and upgraded presidential arrangement; an arrangement that will extricate the country from the chaos that the prime minister has led it into, because in the end we must not forget this simple truth: last time, when he lost the mandate and did not have a majority to form a government, Netanyahu should have agreed to an alternating premiership with Gantz first and himself second, stepped aside to attend to his criminal trial, and returned immediately thereafter. But he refused to let go, and the rest is history.

Summary: This legislation will not come to fruition. First, it will not hold up under the High Court of Justice’s scrutiny. Yes, the despised High Court of Justice. Second, there’s no majority support for it in Blue and White’s cockpit. They don’t want to be Netanyahu when they grow up. Another, more reasonable idea would be to pass this bill into law only in the next Knesset. In other words, not retroactively. That’s actually not a bad idea: it would mean that Netanyahu couldn’t run in a fourth election [sic]. Classy. It’s supposed to pressure him now to quickly close a deal for an alternating premiership with Gantz. All we need now is a

fair and brave mediator that will bring this affair to a close. That mediator is named Reuven (Ruvi) Rivlin. It’s time for a new, brave, improved and upgraded presidential arrangement; an arrangement that will extricate the country from the chaos that the prime minister has led it into, because in the end we must not forget this simple truth: last time, when he lost the mandate and did not have a majority to form a government, Netanyahu should have agreed to an alternating premiership with Gantz first and himself second, stepped aside to attend to his criminal trial, and returned immediately thereafter. But he refused to let go, and the

rest is history.

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Ha’aretz – March 5 2020 For a ‘Removal Government’ By Barak Ravid, political commentator at Channel 13 News

• As the dust settles from the election, it appears that once again Netanyahu and his right-wing bloc do not have a majority. Despite his impressive personal achievement, as of this writing Netanyahu did not win. This is the third time in a year that there is no majority among the voting public and the Knesset for a government composed of the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties. In fact, this is the second time in a row that there appears to be a majority in the public and the Knesset against such a government. • If the final election results show that the camp which aspires to bring the Netanyahu government to an end has won 61 or more Knesset seats, the possibility of executing a narrow, focused political move to establish “the removal government” could be considered. Such a move would be based on the common interest of the leaders of Kahol Lavan, Labor-Gesher-Meretz, Yisrael Beitenu and the Joint List, and on carrying out the shared wish of their voters. • Such a government would not be formed to govern, but to end Netanyahu’s rule, to untie the political knot and follow through on the wishes of a majority of Israelis. It would be a government that was formed for a limited period of 100 days, and would operate in accordance with a bare-bones coalition agreement that could be quickly and easily implemented: Benny Gantz will be prime minister. The government will be a “government of experts” who are not politicians and will concern itself only with managing the daily affairs of state. • The coalition will pass legislation banning any MK under indictment from serving as prime minister, and will limit a prime minister to serving two consecutive terms. The coalition will pass five laws that will fulfill some of the different parties’ election promises – civil marriage, public transportation on Shabbat, revoking the minimarket law, revoking the Kaminitz law (that stiffened penalties for illegal building), and institute a program to reduce violence in the Arab communities. • At the end of the 100 days, a national unity government would be established with every party that wishes to be a part of it. If such a government is not formed within 30 days, the Knesset will be disbanded and an election will be held. A move of this kind was on the table after the September election, but neither Kahol Lavan nor Yisrael Beitenu were politically prepared then to pursue it. Now this possibility has opened up again, under less favorable conditions. • A removal government like this is not natural. Establishing it would be an unprecedented move in the country’s history. It would require Gantz, Avigdor Lieberman, Amir Peretz and Ayman Odeh to be willing to make big compromises, but it would also grant them major achievements. And most importantly – these four leaders and their factions have no better option right now. • In the past two days, there have been signs that perhaps this time that understanding is sinking in. Gantz is talking about expedited legislation that would prohibit a prime minister under indictment from continuing in office, and Lieberman is talking about a move that would avert a fourth election and lead to Netanyahu’s ouster. Their ringing failure at the polls put Gantz and Co. into a funk and a state of confusion verging on paralysis. This is a justified, natural human reaction, but it is not helpful and is unfitting, given the situation the country is in. Political leaders who are committed to working on their voters’ behalf do not have the privilege of wallowing. They must consider the political reality with a cold eye and extract the maximum from it. That is exactly what Benjamin Netanyahu would do. 6