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HEARING ON CHINA’S NUCLEAR FORCES HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, JUNE 10, 2021 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN ROBIN CLEVELAND, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: BOB BOROCHOFF DEREK SCISSORS JEFFREY FIEDLER HON. JAMES M. TALENT KIMBERLY GLAS ALEX N. WONG HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN MICHAEL R. WESSEL ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act of 2001, Pub. L. No. 106–398 (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002), as amended by: The Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act, 2002, Pub. L. No. 107–67 (Nov. 12, 2001) (regarding employment status of staff and changing annual report due date from March to June); The Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003, Pub. L. No. 108–7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); The Science, State, Justice, Commerce, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2006, Pub. L. No. 109–108 (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission and applicability of FACA); The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008, Pub. L. No. 110–161 (Dec. 26, 2007) (regarding submission of accounting reports; printing and binding; compensation for the executive director; changing annual report due date from June to December; and travel by members of the Commission and its staff); The Carl Levin and Howard P. ‘‘Buck’’ McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, Pub. L. No. 113–291 (Dec. 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter and statutory mandate are available online at: https://www.uscc.gov/charter. ii CONTENTS THURSDAY, JUNE 10, 2021 HEARING ON CHINA’S NUCLEAR FORCES Opening Statement of Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................1 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................2 Opening Statement of Commissioner Alex Wong (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................3 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................4 Panel I: Chinese Nuclear Hardware, Delivery Systems, and Supporting Infrastructure Panel I Introduction by Commissioner Alex Wong (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................5 Statement of Hans Kristensen Director of the Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists ............6 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................8 Statement of Phillip C. Saunders Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, National Defense University .......................................................................................................................20 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................23 Statement of Mark Hibbs Nonresident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ...................38 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................40 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................55 Panel II: Why China is Modernizing and Expanding its Nuclear Forces Panel II Introduction by Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................71 Statement of Christopher Twomey Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School ...........................................................72 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................75 Statement of David Logan Ph.D. Candidate in Security Studies, Princeton University ...........................................83 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................86 iii Statement of Caitlin Talmadge Associate Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service ..........................................................................................................................104 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................107 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................122 Panel III: Implications for the United States, the Region, and the Global Non-Proliferation Regime Panel III Introduction by Commissioner Alex Wong (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................138 Statement of Brad Roberts Director of the Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ....................................................................................................................139 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................141 Statement of Abraham Denmark Director of the Asia Program, Wilson Center ..............................................................150 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................152 Statement of Valerie Lincy Executive Director, Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control ...............................177 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................180 Panel III: Question and Answer .....................................................................................209 iv CHINA’S NUCLEAR FORCES THURSDAY, JUNE 10, 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, D.C. The Commission met in Room 430 of Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC and via videoconference at 9:30 a.m., Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler and Commissioner Alex Wong (Hearing Co-Chairs) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER JEFFREY FIEDLER HEARING CO-CHAIR COMMISSIONER FIEDLER: Good morning and welcome to the sixth hearing of the U.S. China Economic Security Review Commission's 2021 Annual Report Cycle. Thank you all for joining us. Thank you especially to our witnesses for the time and effort they've put into their testimonies. Many, if not most, aspects of high-level decision making in China are opaque; but few aspects are more difficult to discern than the CCP's leadership's actual thinking about nuclear weapons. To be sure, they seem to make some things clear, such as insisting that they will never use nuclear weapons first. They also, at one point, assured the world that they would not militarize the islands they occupy in the South China Sea. Their public and private statements on numerous other issues have been similarly false or misleading. Therefore, it seems to me only prudent to question their public stance on the role of nuclear weapons in their overall quest for superpower status. Given the catastrophic dangers of nuclear war, it may not just be prudent to question their motives and actions but imperative. Our hearing today will look first at the expansion of China's nuclear weapon stockpile and delivery systems, command and control and communications for China's nuclear forces, and Beijing's use of civil-military fusion to support the expansion and modernization of its nuclear forces. The hearing's second panel will examine recent changes in and the future trajectory of China's nuclear weapons posture, strategy, and doctrine. The final panel will assess U.S. and regional perspectives on China's nuclear buildup, as well as implications for the global proliferation regime. I will now turn the floor over to my colleague and co-chair for this hearing, Commissioner Alex Wong. Back to the Table of Contents 1 PREPARED STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER JEFFREY FIEDLER HEARING CO-CHAIR Good morning, and welcome to the sixth hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s 2021 Annual Report cycle. Thank you all for joining us, and thank you especially to our witnesses for the time and effort they have put into their testimonies. Many, if not most, aspects of high-level decision-making in China are opaque. But few aspects are more difficult to discern than the CCP leadership’s actual thinking about nuclear weapons. To be sure, they seem to make some things clear such as insisting they will never use nuclear weapons first. They also at one point assured the world that they would not militarize the islands they occupy in the South China Sea. Their public and private statements on numerous other issues have been similarly false or misleading. Therefore, it seems to me only prudent to question their public stance on the role of nuclear weapons
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