Integrated Review Plan for the Review of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards

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Integrated Review Plan for the Review of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards Integrated Review Plan for the Review of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards \ EPA-452/R-19-002 August 2019 Integrated Review Plan for the Review of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Health and Environmental Impacts Division Research Triangle Park, NC and National Center for Environmental Assessment Research Triangle Park, NC DISCLAIMER This document has been prepared by staff in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards and National Center for Environmental Assessment. Any findings and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency. This document does not represent and should not be construed to represent any Agency determination or policy. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Questions or comments related to this document should be addressed to Dr. Deirdre Murphy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, C504-06, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711 (email: [email protected]). i TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF APPENDICES ........................................................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... iv 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENTS ................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE NAAQS REVIEW PROCESS .................................................... 1-4 1.3 PLANNED PROCESS AND PROJECTED TIMELINE FOR THIS REVIEW ............. 1-8 2 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1 PRIOR REVIEWS OF AIR QUALITY CRITERIA AND STANDARDS FOR PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS INCLUDING O3 ........................................ 2-1 2.2 AMBIENT AIR MONITORING AND DATA HANDLING CONVENTIONS FOR THE CURRENT STANDARDS ..................................................................................... 2-6 2.2.1 Monitoring Requirements and the Current Monitoring Network ............................. 2-6 2.2.2 Data Handling Conventions for Comparison to the Standards ................................ 2-9 2.3 OVERVIEW OF OZONE AIR QUALITY ..................................................................... 2-9 3 KEY POLICY-RELEVANT ISSUES FOR THE CURRENT REVIEW ..................... 3-1 3.1 THE PRIMARY STANDARD ........................................................................................ 3-2 3.1.1 Key Issues Related to the Primary Standard ............................................................ 3-2 3.1.2 Background on the Current Primary Standard (Considerations and Conclusions in the Last Review) ................................................................................................. 3-6 3.1.2.1 Considering the Need for Revision .................................................................. 3-9 3.1.2.2 Considering Revisions to the Standard .......................................................... 3-14 3.2 THE SECONDARY STANDARD ............................................................................... 3-21 3.2.1 Key Issues Related to the Secondary Standard ....................................................... 3-21 3.2.2 Background on the Current Secondary Standard (Considerations and Conclusions in the Last Review) ........................................................................... 3-25 3.2.2.1 Considering the Need for Revision ................................................................ 3-27 3.2.2.2 Considering Revisions to the Standard .......................................................... 3-30 4 SCIENCE ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 PURPOSE OF THE ISA .................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 ORGANIZATION OF THE ISA ..................................................................................... 4-1 4.3 ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................... 4-2 4.3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 4-2 4.3.2 Scope of the ISA ....................................................................................................... 4-4 4.3.3 Literature Search and Identification of Relevant Studies ......................................... 4-6 4.3.3.1 Systematic Literature Search .......................................................................... 4-6 ii 4.3.3.2 Initial Screening (Level 1) of Studies from Literature Search ........................ 4-7 4.3.3.3 Criteria of In-Scope Studies ............................................................................ 4-9 4.3.4 Discipline-Specific Scoping, Searching and Screening ............................................ 4-9 4.3.4.1 Atmospheric Science ....................................................................................... 4-9 4.3.4.2 Exposure Assessment....................................................................................... 4-9 4.3.4.3 Health – Experimental Studies ....................................................................... 4-10 4.3.4.4 Health – Observational (Epidemiologic) Studies .......................................... 4-12 4.3.4.5 Welfare Effects – Ecological Studies ............................................................ 4-14 4.3.4.6 Welfare – Effects on Climate ......................................................................... 4 - 1 6 4.3.5 Identification of Policy-Relevant Studies ............................................................... 4-17 4.3.6 Evaluation of Individual Study Quality .................................................................. 4-18 4.3.7 Integration of Evidence and Determination of Causality ....................................... 4-19 4.3.8 Quality Management ............................................................................................... 4-22 4.4 SPECIFIC SCIENCE ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE ISA ............................ 4-23 4.4.1 Causality Determinations from 2013 ISA............................................................... 4-24 4.4.2 Ambient Concentrations of O3 ................................................................................ 4-26 4.4.3 Human Exposure ..................................................................................................... 4-26 4.4.4 Health Effects .......................................................................................................... 4-27 4.4.5 At-Risk Lifestages and Populations and Public Health Impact .............................. 4-29 4.4.6 Welfare Effects ....................................................................................................... 4-30 4.4.6.1 Ecological Effects .......................................................................................... 4-30 4.4.6.2 Effects on Climate .......................................................................................... 4-32 4.5 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW ......................................................................... 4-33 4.5.1 Peer Input Workshop .............................................................................................. 4-33 4.5.2 Peer Review ............................................................................................................ 4-33 5 QUANTITATIVE RISK AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ..................................... 5-1 5.1 ASSESSMENTS INFORMING REVIEW OF THE PRIMARY STANDARD .............. 5-3 5.1.1 Overview of Assessments in Last Review ................................................................ 5-5 5.1.1.1 Exposure-based Risk Analyses ....................................................................... 5-9 5.1.1.2 Air Quality Epidemiologic Study Based Risk Analyses............................... 5-15 5.1.2 Assessments for this Review ................................................................................... 5-17 5.1.2.1 Key Considerations ....................................................................................... 5-17 5.1.2.2 Initial Plans for the Current Review ............................................................. 5-18 5.2 ASSESSMENTS INFORMING REVIEW OF THE SECONDARY STANDARD .... 5-21 5.2.1 Overview of Assessments in Last Review .............................................................. 5-22 5.2.1.1 Growth-related Assessments .......................................................................... 5-23 5.2.1.2 Foliar Injury Assessments .............................................................................. 5-26 5.2.1.3 Additional Air Quality/Exposure and E-R Analyses ..................................... 5-27 5.2.2 Assessments for this Review .................................................................................. 5-29 iii 5.2.2.1 Key Considerations ......................................................................................
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