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Report to on the Proposed Strategic Alliance Between Air New Zealand

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Report to on the Proposed Strategic Alliance Between Air New Zealand Report to on the Proposed Strategic Alliance between Air New Zealand Limited and Qantas Airways Limited December 2002 Table of Contents LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................III Glossary – Key Terms and Definitions .......................................................................... v 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Summary of Strategic Alliance Agreement ........................................................ 1 1.3 Key Conclusions ................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Information Sources............................................................................................ 5 1.5 Appreciation........................................................................................................ 5 2 HISTORICAL FINANCIAL AND OPERATING PERFORMANCE......................................... 6 2.1 November 2001 Five Year Business Plan ......................................................... 6 2.2 FY2002 Financial Results................................................................................... 8 2.3 Share Price Performance................................................................................. 11 2.4 Divisional Earnings Summary .......................................................................... 12 3 THE CURRENT COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT........................................................... 14 3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................... 14 3.2 Air NZ’s Strategic Response – NZ Express..................................................... 14 3.3 Competitive Behaviour ..................................................................................... 18 4 STAND-ALONE FORECAST FINANCIAL AND OPERATING PERFORMANCE................. 21 4.1 FY2003 Budget ................................................................................................. 21 4.2 FY2003 YTD Performance............................................................................... 22 4.3 Stand-Alone Projections FY2004-2006 ............................................................ 24 4.4 Capital Structure Analysis ................................................................................ 30 5 OUTLINE OF PROPOSAL ......................................................................................... 34 5.1 Overview of Strategic Alliance Agreement (“SAA”) ......................................... 34 5.2 Overview of the JAO ......................................................................................... 35 5.3 Equity Investment ............................................................................................. 41 5.4 Governance ...................................................................................................... 44 5.5 Transition Deed ................................................................................................ 45 5.6 Termination of the Strategic Alliance Agreement ............................................ 46 5.7 Process and Timetable..................................................................................... 48 6 ASSESSMENT OF PROPOSAL .................................................................................. 49 6.1 Strategic Rationale ........................................................................................... 49 6.2 Management Fee and Adjustment Payment.................................................... 51 6.3 Financial Impact of JAO ................................................................................... 53 6.4 Comparison of the JAO to Stand-Alone ........................................................... 59 6.5 Gearing ............................................................................................................. 62 6.6 Impact of the JAO on Valuation of Air NZ ........................................................ 62 6.7 Assessment of Equity Investment by Qantas .................................................. 64 Page i Table of Contents 6.8 Management and Governance......................................................................... 71 6.9 Key Risks of the Proposal for Air NZ................................................................ 73 7 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CROWN AS PRINCIPAL SHAREHOLDER............................... 76 7.1 Financial Implications for the Crown ................................................................ 76 7.2 Governance Issues........................................................................................... 78 7.3 Implications for Divestment of Shareholding.................................................... 79 7.4 Air NZ’s Future Capital Requirements ............................................................. 81 8 ALTERNATIVES TO THE SAA AND JAO .................................................................. 85 8.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 85 8.6 Summary of Options ......................................................................................... 92 9 MODIFICATIONS TO PROPOSAL .............................................................................. 94 9.1 Levels of Qantas Shareholding ........................................................................ 94 9.2 Shareholders’ Agreement with the Crown ....................................................... 95 10 OTHER MATTERS ................................................................................................... 96 10.1 Legal Matters for Consideration ................................................................... 96 11 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 97 11.1 Overall Assessment of Proposal .................................................................. 97 11.2 Implications for the Crown ............................................................................ 97 11.3 Other Options Available to the Crown.......................................................... 97 APPENDIX A: TERMS OF REFERENCE ........................................................................... 99 Description of Services (clause 1.1):........................................................................... 99 APPENDIX B: SOURCES OF INFORMATION .................................................................. 101 APPENDIX C: QANTAS SUMMARY............................................................................... 102 APPENDIX D: VIRGIN BLUE SUMMARY......................................................................... 103 Page ii Disclaimer Limitations and Disclaimer This Report has been prepared by First NZ Capital Group Limited (“First NZ Capital”) solely for the purpose of enabling the Crown to evaluate the proposal from the perspective of the Crown as the major shareholder in Air New Zealand Limited (“Air NZ”). This Report is furnished by First NZ Capital solely for the purposes described above and is unsuitable for any other purpose and should not be relied upon by any other person or for any other purpose. The information in this Report is given in good faith and has been prepared from and based on financial and other information provided by Air NZ and its advisors, believed to be reliable at the time of preparation. Whilst First NZ Capital has no reason to believe that any material facts have been withheld or omitted by the aforementioned parties, First NZ Capital does not represent or warrant that it has received all relevant information. The information provided to First NZ Capital was evaluated through analys is, enquiry and review for the purposes of evaluating the proposal from the perspective of the Crown as the major shareholder in Air NZ. However, First NZ Capital does not represent or warrant that its enquiries have identified or verified all of the matters that an audit or “due diligence” investigation might disclose. The information provided to First NZ Capital included financial projections for the financial years ending 2003 to 2006. First NZ Capital has used and relied upon those financial projections for the purpose of its analysis. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated and opinions, estimates, forecasts and projections contained in this Report are fair and accurate, we have not independently verified the information contained in this Report and assume no responsibility for the independent verification thereof. Accordingly, First NZ Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions, estimates, forecasts or projections contained in this Report, and nothing in this Report shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Neither First NZ Capital nor any of its directors, affiliates, related companies, agents, officers or employees accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or other consequence arising from the use of this Report or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The report includes certain statements, estimates, forecasts and projections with respect to anticipated future performance of Air
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