DOCURENT.RESONE t MI 158. 318 i . 28 .005 359'. 0 AUTHOR Boucher, Wayne I.,, .Ed. ''TITLE' Vie Study of the- Future:-Atr. Agenda- for. Research. .. zSIONS AGENCY National Science Foundation, Washington,D.C. . RANK .1,. . 0 Progkam. = , REPOR.F.NO SP/124-7700'36 . . PUB DATE -Jul. 7,7 . . , . GRANT' GI-37178 . , NOTE .3430.1Parts.may be marglhallf legible due to small
type . AlaIlotiiiE FROMSuperintendent of 'Docnikents U.S. 'Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C.:-204.02 (StookNo. I
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EDRS PRICE MF-$0.83 HC-$18.87Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Anttiologies; *Futures. (of Society); Research Methodology; *Research Needs;.*Research... oppdrtunities; *State of the Art Reviews . ABSTRAdT This. Collection of 18pipers is concerned with the beliefs,, methods, practices, and-'resultsassociated with,thetype of forecasting which has become knoinin thelast 10,. to 15 yelirs. as 4futuie-s research.n. Topics discussedinclude: (1) forecaSting .methodology; (2) the validity `of forecastingsystems;.(3)unforeseen% developients;* (4) fgrecasting inpolitical-sciencelsoCiblogy, technolo4y,, and ecomics; (5) normativeforecasting; (6) forecasting. for decisionmakingr and policymaking;17), professional issues in fdrecasting research} and(8)the future, of kiltimes research. Resu lts ofasurvey of current foredasting effortsynda bibliography are: apPendee. (Authdr/STS)
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. , U.S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION &WELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE DF EDUCATION .Wayri e I. Bopcher THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO- DUCED' EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OB4ORGANiZATION 61:NOIN- (Editor) 1' A TING IT POINTS OF ViEVFOR OPINIONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REeRE "'sewOFFICIAL NATIONAL 1471TUTE OF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY . With ContributionsBy' Roy A ara SOO s.J9lin V. HO; ,r--f Wayne I. IdaR. Hoos op Marvin J. Cetron7. .Ralph C. Lenz, Jr.
v--I .'George'Foster Harold A. Linstone LP Herbert Gerjuoy John McHale.
Theodore J. GOrdOn. Josephoseph P..Ma tino Willis W. Harman Katherine H.- Willson Olaf Helnier Vict6r Zarnow tz .
d. jUly 1977 Prepared with the Sulipciit of the National 'Science FoUndatiOn Itisearch Applications-iiireetorate':. :RANN-Resiarck Appliedto NatIonal Needa. Division of Intergovernthental Science andTublidTechnQlog Under Grant No.-GI 37178 . As we study oururrent situation and. explore ways to improve it, we end that we are to enhance timan Survival. and well - being; we must be concerned About the 'future .-For human rvivalanwell-being dependupon our ability to anticipate ! cope.with future. pblemsand threats, to perceive,.evaltrate and control the effectsof ()Or, actions., and imagine arid create more desirable futures.. How we;-cannprOve our ability' opursue these goals through research is `the subject of thisolurrW.
. If we ar-to enhance human survival 'and well-being,we need to improve our capacity tos)c and answer questions about the future and implementthe answers, increase ouunderstandings agreement about future problems andoptions in order to make ssible effective action, and create aprocessto improve such Capacity,. mg and agreement:
I mortant tlernents of this difficult and importantprocess include actions. to perfor research concerning the future, to evaluate and revisethe content and.' methds.oi such research, andto coinunicate and nse the results. We need, for exapee; to improve the adequacy, clarity aridprecisffin not only of the concepts which - wese to think about the futureJoutralso df thesymb,ols (the words, mathematical syOils and. graphic/visual techniques) whi.chwe-use to express,' manipUlate mmunicate the concepts.
The following are some of the importantquestions -which we need to address. What dspects.of thefuturednwe,wish to consider, forexample, climate, environment, resources, technology, the economy, social structure, and human'values?a4atare the chars cteristicsof these elements, for example,predictability, 'uniqueness, stability, and, controlabilitY? What factuali-policy,,arewilueguestions should we ask about future events? For ekamPle, what Future events and itipaoctsare possible? How pkbablears,, they? What sorts of contingency are involved.Thar ts, ifwe take a particular action, :" then what-will be.the impar-if.we,wishto achieve a particular goal; then what actions must:wetake? With what degree of certaintycan we make statements about possibilities, probabilities and contingencies? How desirableand popular'are,the events and impiCts, fOr what systems,groups, and values? What actions should we lituallY, take? We need alsoto ask what intellectual tOOlsc-fecb4ologies,_sorial - processes, and institutions can we:develop and use ifi We wish to address these problems : :1 and questions, and to implement the answers effectively.? : , ' ' .This book-,was created in order Io help.us address oriany of, the, problems, questions, and needs oiltliried above/ ItcOntains an agenda for researchwhich present's i ; 'a challenge and an .opportunity to those who perform, support,dUse research on the future, and is the result OfI project supported by'theNatiOnal ience. Foundation's Research Applied' to National Need; (RA N) Pio 'ramin order to assess /tie state-of-
thegart and'needs, for addition?l r earch in thr) geld of, forecasting.Although the. - conferences leading to this volume. ere-held in Juary i974, and the ilaPerpprinted. .here:,were prepared .primarilkduri ip g 103-1975,- t e vollue iSt still -timely- since cumulitive progress in this field isitinforttiriatelySlow. /.., fix,; . . '
' It is hoped that, by, helping.tostimulate research on the future and raise its quality, . foster an ongoing dialogue about subject,s and methodsfor research, and sirengthen
the community of_performers and users. ofesearch on the future, this book will help us o more effecrivelYto anticipate and cope with future problems, thrdats, and opportunities; -to. perceive, evahlate, and control the' effects of our actions; and. to
imagine, design; and create more desirable futures. .
. Robert W. Lamson JProgram' Manager Divisions of Intergovernmental Science and Public -Technology National Science' Foundation
November l97f,
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4. .:.,. .., ,prefi, ac .. , . ...., This volumetis concern \ . ,with forecast ng.'in particular, it i concerned, with the various beliefs, dethods, pra, aces, and rests 'associatid with-a \kind of forecasting, that \hascome to be referred. in the last Ito, l5 years as "futures research..'
Most earlier workson these subjectsand there are any---have been, philosOphical or procedural, de ciiptiv'e 'or exhortatory. They'ha,e tried to help us
understand why we should stu the haul: ; how and to whatextent this is posible; 43 -what-the consequences may be if we fail to forecast responsiblyor if We fail to use the best available forecasts; who is or should! be involved in preparingand evaluating forecasts; where errors Lave been mile; hgw forecastingcan be made to complement planning .and to strengthien decisionmaking;- what subjectshave been or should be addressed; how forecasting articulates with the larger needs and interests ofsociety; and theiike. But even the very best of these works his givenus only slight guidance 6n., the crucial qnestion of what.can and 'ought to be doneto overcome current constraints ` on, forecasting, constraints that prevent -fdrecwing;\ from making the kinds of contributions \ that 'could otherwise reasoriablile-e`xpected of it. .. , \ \ '1 ,Suggestion\s aboiffid, dedurse: Lacking, howev .. r, has been an attept to view and review such suggestions in context with each otherr against a com on backdrop
--of actual experience in forecasting. Also missing from arter disciissions-h xas-bee-ra careful*nd sisternatic effortto. single out thOse difficult' alcanbe dealt with only through research,' as opPosed:to, say, political actio nstitutional change, or o...t edliCatiom, Finally, -even where questions that best lendt Ives to research have been identified, fey/ authors indeed have 'diedto evalu priorities among- the Candidates. 'In short, While most authoir'sagree that foreca ing is still one of the . priMitiviarts and -thateacch Can makea difference in man ',instances, the field is ' without a.research agefdar The specifieconcern and aim of thisook is to describe the elements of such an'agenda and then t6 organize and evaluateese elenients. ,\ ., , e . :,::A The difficulties of such an undertaking are beyond thecomtens, of a single
individual, for\account mUst be taken of isiues of philosophy, then,.methodology, . instituflonalizatitkn, professionalism, implementation, and de, ande ch of these sets . of-issues must be seen in a way. that cuts-acrOksmany disciplines. Fortutely, with the support of a grant (rpm the U.S. Nation Science Fooundation, itwas. possible to d%w upon the insight arid\experienee of some of the world's outstanding authoritieson forecasting'.in the,.catirit of preparing this volume. triaditionto thoge who, contributed chapterslo this book, important assistancewasreceived from the nearly 20Tpersons and organizations throughout the, world that contribigedto the surVey4of . research in pragresi which is summarized in the Appendix.' Ant,beyonthat,.there 'was also the direct participation ofa number ot-U.Sipediilistkon. forecasting who
took pa.fil.iu,. conferences conducted by The, Futures Group in January 1974alsb, sponsored by the U.S:p National Science Foundationas part of this projectat Which! ' _many- of the chapter's published in 'this book were firstpresentedas papers and critiqued. The attendeeS included the f011oWing individualS: . ,
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Harold S: Becker:- Lioy Pagano. The Futures-Group New- Jersey Institute of Techn Glastonbury: Connecticut Ncviark; New Jersey - e I / sary T,' Coates Robert Parke - George Washington University Social Science Research Coun Washington,:D.'C...- Waihingtoni. Norman.C. Dalkey George A. Steiner University ottalifornia, 'University of California :
at Los Angeles at Los Angeles 4 :Los Angeles, California Los Angeles, California I
:games A. Dator Murray Turoff University of Hawaii , New Jersey InStitute of Teihnology ;Honolulu, Hawaii NeWark, New Jersey '- ( Arthur M. Harkins RichardWakefield University of Minnesota National Institute of Mental Health Minneapolis, Minnesota Rockville, Maryland
Robert Lamson - JoitalhailWard. pfY National Science foundation_ Ci3Sadio Washington, D.C. \ Nbw York, New Ydrk . - - Magda MsHale Roger Wescott' ' University of Houston Drew.University Houston, Texas ,. Madison; New ( . . . t'. John MoLeod. 17-.. Jelin Wilkinson 4k World Simulation Organization Centyfor the Study of Ira Jolla, California Vemobraticlnititutions antai3arbarii,tt California
; This book obviously ytould .fiot'havtbeen possire without the comments and t .t cooperatioh of all of theiepersons-r.those yvho prepared papers,.those whoattended
the conferenCes,Und thOse,who- contfiliuted.to the:wOrld survey. , Fdr a number of reasons, I hope'thit fhisiboOk will ieacb;many audiences-- a' educators and-students, planners and analysts, rnanavisAnciptolicyrnakers, and ;the: general pOlk, or at least that portion of these audiences whiCh shales William.- Faulkner's belief that man 'shOhld not merelyendure;Nt prevail. These pages came., together at a time when -it had-long been; fashionable inthe'Westto attack saienceto . debunk planning, to excoriatebureau4ICY.,,to lament tomorrOwiand toapplaud those. who argue that sheer being is the antidoto to the painsof becoming, that!,mySOcisM is- the curelor the excesses of materialisin,"andlhatthecigher mora)ity, is to be fOund104.. r. warm and Strangely interpersonal l .solipsin.:, One thaYpr .thay-,notiagree..thatthese' attitudes are in the end nothing morethin aOseriprion for tnerse,,endifianee.' But ',11ifficitlit to maintain they-can in any way help.inankind:tnpreVail. 'that task, where challenge and change are real, and where the pfoce4of iitidersfanclinthe one.. and controlling the -other is laborious,11,11impoisible tOignoretheluturcorto dismiss; - out ofhand only. instruments that can bring tlie.fhturetothe serviee,of man, Orktb0 contrary, trise instruments,;' where-ustfukshotild. improved knowk ,...... ,,
show fan this work can go, but whatev'er the limits--theoreticalor is clear that many'pysons from many backgrounds will have to be involved. This book offers them ,,the beginnings, of a framework for their efforts. . .
Because most authors lave avoidechtnathematres;sthe discussionshould be, accessible to everyone in the intended audiences. Buta certain. familiarity with forecaiting is assumed by seN;eral of the contributors; Somereaders:may, therefore, find it advantageous to read this book in conjunction withone of the baskworks inthe. field.; Perhaps done surpasses Bertrand de Jouvenal's Art ofConjecture in the consiration of fundamental ideal and Erich Jantsch's.Technological Forecastingin Perspe tiveiri the pye,sentation of basic techniqUes, but references to-Maqot1Seruseful -sources popultand technical; areprovided iii the bibliography. tI would liketo acknowledge. ihe -help I received ducing this project frOm several colleagues at The FUtiires Group, particularly TheOclore J.' Gorilon, Who-first proposed that such a study be Undertaan and who contributed substantially atmany_ points, and Janice Cohen, who assistedme in distilling oft the Various candidate research proposals (analyzed in Chapter 18). Special thanksare also.owed to June Salisbury, who not oily superbly typeda very ,difficult manuscript, but who alsq - managed dozens of names, hundreds of publications, and thousands ofother details o professidnally and with good cheer. . *Claire Connellyconsultantto thi,project, did thAnVerditing speedily and well. Finally,I'would alsoliketo ttank Robert Lamson of the U.S. National Science 'Foundation, .who served (with#xtraordinarypatience and cooperatiO) as ad- ministrator of the contract which supported, midi of the work reported here. . "As ed itor;Mould dedicate this vOlumeto EdwardS. Quade, who settle stage; to Theodore J. Gordon, whahaa the idea; td thecontributors, who made it happen; and 'to Ivliclr4le and Roberst, who,among others; will judge its worth. ,
Wayne.I. Bducher 1 A r October 1976
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to contributors
o goy Amara, President Ida R. HOos Institute for tile Future Research Sociolisgist Menlo Park, California 'Space Sciences Laboratory- University of California Wayne I. Boucher, Formerly Vice Berkley, California 7President and Secretary, The % . . Futures Group, Glastonbury, Ralph C. Lenz, Jr'. Connecticut; now Deputy Director. 4 Senior Research Engineer and Director of Research, - liniverSity of Dayton Research' National COmrttissim on Electronic Institute Fund Transfers, 'Washington, D.C. ...Dayton. Ohio ". Marvin Cetron, President Harold A. LinstOne , Forecasting International, Ltd. Arlington, Virginia Director. Systems ScieUce Doctoral Program ' , . °Portland state University George Foster. .Portland, Oregon Director of Research Forecasting International, Ltd. John- McHale, Arlington, Vhinia Director e) Center for Integrative Studies Oniversity'of Houston ' Herbert Gerjtioy r - Houston, Texas Senior Staff Scientist r. The FutiirestWo.up Joseph P. Martino Glastonbury, Connecticut- Research' Scientist University of Dayton Research .. A %Theodore J. Gordon, President. Institute The Figures Group .Dayton. Ohio. Glastonbury, Connecticut Katherine H., WillsOn Willis W. Harman \ :Director, Center for the Study Research AssoCiate and Director of Social Policy of InfOrMation SerViCes ' The' Futures Group Stanfoid, Research Institute 'Glaitontiury, Connecticut Menlo California °-
John.V."Helb. Victor Za'rnowitz Consultant Professor Of-Ecctnomics and Finance The Futures Group Uiversity of Chicago Glasionburyconnectictit Graduate School/of Business Chicago,. IllihOis
Olaf )-lelmer, ...... , -Emeritus Professor of Ftitures Research . . C:elifersrt for Futures Research Graduate:560ot.. of Business.,, ..,7, > Administration . University of Southern California `'- c "Los Angeles, California A . I ..
' , .. .y .- . . )! t . i . _ .. . - contents .... , . , . N t . . c . Part' I: An, Oilentation to- Futures. Research . ---. -- ...... 1. Introduction, .W..1. Boucher 3 . The Futures Movement in General 3 A Definition of Futures Research 6 . . Purposes of this Book 9 A New Perspective on Forecasting4Iethdology, by H. Gerjuoy )4- 14 Intrinsic Assumption-Related Forecasting-Methods.: . ) . 14 7 Intrinsic' Process-Related Forecasting MethOds 22 . :, Intrinsic Output-Related Forecasting Methods - f 27 . Extrinsic System-Related Forecasting Meihods - / 30 Extrinsic. Use-Related Forecasting Methods ' :-' . 31 . O ,1 . . 3.'Validity...ofForecasting Systems, byH. Gerjuoy. 33 . , IA. 4 ,An Uppei Limit May be Estimated From an Estilnate O Reliability 4 J 44- Validity May be Estimatedrby Extrapolating Trends in Validity Estimates...... -,-1'.36 We May Redefine Validity. So-That It Pertains'to ForecastForest Utility, Not ,- .) - -,,, . Accui3cy .: .- , 36%. ' . ': J - _._ .._. -..-- , 4 Th-e Nature of Unforeseen Developments,by T., .1J. Gordon 38 y. *\- Introduction., : . \..,38 - ome Definitiolis . .. , !\. ------Causality --, I 39 Extrapolation in Forecasting . ,, \ ,39.- Extrapelatiit Unforeseen Developments .. 40 _Mutant Pnforeseen Developments ' , . 40 . f ,.. . A Paradigmatic Technique 7 41 'ISciimative Search 41 Morpbological,Analyiis .. P. . ,4422.,,,,, Consequences of New Instrumentation , (-, : . Trend Impact Analysis .! - 2 Pro System Dynamics- t tt' - .
. Part 11..ACcOmplithments*an0Iiroopects . , _ Attitudes Toward Forecasting in Political Science and-Sodlology: 'A comment on Socipl Forecasting,s0 W.1. Boucher, ... - 49,
Introduction , Political Science .. . , Sociology , -- . e 54 Th'e'State-of-the-Art in Social Forecasting '.., 59 6.Technological Forecasting: State -of- the -Art, firoblims,-and Prospeitke , - ,' * R. C.Lenz, Jr. i - , --:... . -.: .. . 68 , State-of-the-Art. 9 - Curiertt Problems-inkTedikblogical Forecasting...... , -: ,,. . 4 Prospects for Technological Forecasting -.\ , .... 73 _. Research RecRimmendations \ 1. . 74- . ?\_... 7. . On NOrmativeForOasting,by W. W. Fiar-man . .. . 76 . : -` Some Gerieral:Obseivations about Future° Reserchi , . 76 Types bf Approacties . ' . , 77., .- . A Tentative 'Interpretation of the Present Decade' ,'- . 19 a A Crutial Question for.' Futures ReSearch 82 The Future o( Futures Research 4 84 .. . 1 .1 . . .8:Forecasting in Economics: State-of4ge-Art,ePioblems,..and F;rosbE .. .. cts, ' . _ by V. Zarnowitz 0 , 86 . Concepts and Iiistinctions - I 86 Sources and Uyes . , , 81 Types and Methods of Forecasting . "88 . Evaluating the Forecasting Record and Prospects' 94 . Suggestions for Research 9.8 N ,-- 0 , . , . : 9. A Resource Allocation Toolfor Dicisionmaking,by M. J. Cetron and G. Foster 100 :- The Problem of ,Resaurce Allocation - 100 The Basics of Resource Allocation 101 - A Resource Allocation Model- r 102 :. . Conclusion . .. . - , , I. , ;1.09 ,10.(:precasting and Its Impactn Policymaking,by J. P. Martino III
Introduction ---- ... 111 Specific Models . . . .. 113 Summar), and Concrusions / c - 1.19 , 6 . / 4 11.Problems in Futures Research,by,!. R. floos _. . 122' .. 1 _History and "..Facts". ,. I...r... '122 4, . Data, Documentation, and the Research Function , 124 Futiires Research.Prolegomena and Perspectives. A . . . 129 , tri g-When the Future is Known: The-Case.of the Soviet Union, Boucher- - ,137 Doctrinal Bacround " i37 Twentieth-Century Attitudes 140 APproaches , .1 149 Methods and, Applicittibns 153 Some Conclusions t 1'63
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. I . 0 . .4k4 .Part. III. ,Professional- Issues . . 19. The Futures Field; Functions, Forms) anif Critical Is' 4 sues, by R. Amara ,, 1:187 Form FolloWs Furietions .. i 187 Functions (or Roles) of the Futures Field - ... .. 188 . y Existing Forms; Goal Setter's, Researchers, Planners, CitizenGroups.. 189' 1 . .., ' , Idealized, Forms: Mgtching Form to Function 1 191 . 3. .Sfame Researchable Issues Related to Basic Roles. ,..4... 192 - Soirie.Speculations on .the Future of.the Futures: Field ' A 194' . , !
*se:
. .;.11%iy 1-, = !tit = 1. 4. Communications in- Futures Ft search, by H. A. fir:stone 196 .. ,, 4 . Typology ; ' ' 196 . Communication Among Futurists .' .,. 147 , 'Communications with Nonfuturist , -';. 199 '. Communication Dilemma Nb. ,f: S stem Complexity * .. 202 :Communication Dilemma No. 2: D'scounting the Fittrife 203 t., S4me New Suggestions ', ' 2,06 .. ,. - Conclusion ,. 4 . 207. . I - :r 15. . Monitoring the Future, by W. I. Bo cher,and K. H. Willson . 210 ; i , .. . .Pail Iv: On the F ture of Futures Research..
18.Forecasting and/or FUtufes Resettle., krJ."Mcligle.:. .. 235 . ' Areas or Emphasis in Forecasting 236 Gaps and Weaknesses in 'Forecasting 238 Theoretical . , . - 239 Methodological 4 '240 ( , Organiiational . 241., % " \ Integration of Forecasts , 242 ...... t., 17.An Agenda for Futures Research; by 0.- Helmer " 244-'
,.." ,Data Collection . 246 "-444440.14)** Mold Construction, , .' 2474 Experimentation. , . 24$ ; . , .q, s Systems Analysis . '(- 249 ,, \ StibstantiveApplications: Exploratory .. 250
SubstitntiVe AlopliCations Normative ., . .251 ., ... - - , . "1 18. - A Statement of Reseaketi Nieds, by W. 1 11_ ucher ,..252-
bialuation of Research Suggestions' ,. .2.$2 . 1, L. ...Analysis t .. 268 . 'c, . , Appendix: Results from the Survey of'Ctirrent F.:orecating Efforts, btu /. toucher
and".1. V. Ilelb 1. -- ; .4 ' 275' ' \ iN Bibliography of Research on Futures,;Rettarch, by Boucher 283' r.
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PART 0 AN.ORIEisiTATICIN ToFUTURES. f E RESEARCH .
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. ° ! Chapter 1. , IntrothOpn 3 ) ,. 0 IWayne L Boucher, '-,, . .4 - - . .... Sstrologers; mystics, ckirorn7- ariCers,prophets,psy- way or another to gaining greater insight into the real A ' .chics, hardspices, and other kinds of soothsayers and., . - .: . opportunities for choice and intq the implications of ' ' 4 . ;seers, inbluding- priests and princes, have traditionally the use of these-opportunities.- ' had. the corner: on forecasting...Even =today .these - . .. . '. t . worthieshavebyfar the greatest influence of all those ' . -- TheFutures Moyement . .who deaf With the future, affecting (as they do)ithe : ...... ,,,,,.,, expectations' and actions of hundreds of millions of in .0eneral , persons daily. This situation is riot likely to, change in .,". No one knows just how citentiye this activity.S; A. the foreseeable futurebut the twentieth century has- whether _in number or type of institutions iriv4Ved, -:witnessed the! first' csncertecFand sustained efforls. to . number or .backgfound ,bf practitioners, levelsor , - mak ,it Change. Indeed, these effortsdirected in 'part ,,tows ing forecasting lessof an art and more of 'a sources, of funding, numbeiliT#d- ;scienceha e not only begun buthavp.in-foict becOme. whatever.' But various nationhl and internationinternational more'andmore-widespread,cirganizedr and surveys make the-total number of indivichialS and soplistic'ated, particularly: Since,the endOf World War e- groups strikingly largeso large, in- fitct,%tliatitk possible to speak without exaggeration of a worldwidt II; when, in Jacob Erontwski's. words, the atomic - &Alb. broUght Pivain0°n "face la-face-With own" futuresmovement,This_' movement. Maybe implications:- 4,, ' - characterized' roughly=.as I-embracing all'of. those 4i. persons, . Avhateve(Miciraffiliation,. engaged' in The coovietion is now increasingly shared that it is forecasting or :With a view toward taming. no longer merely, profitable or helpful .to exploreas thefutureleashingitwhere,necessary,' and Farefully as possible the course trends,.arid the a domesticating it ;vberObssible... They. .thus deny-the: likelihood of ,Potential. events. It isnecessary.- The irr plidirpremises. bf ihsTsoiitilsayers that Oft ft.ittirc,4 exPla,n4tionAs magnificent and yet terri!ble totally outside of man's Control and that,at best, it cln I 'cerityry riemOristiaied more thinonceis. that arrely.11forgtold as a sequence-of nece ary trut1 withouticeener foiesight, without a more reon;ible And while theit .aRproachesiOTore§eingor anticipation?- . some highly_ desirable possiliities will the future vary across a spectrum that jnaindes narrow - tertaing, .bs missed and' some current isions will economic or technological.forecastirigthe writing of liaVetegrettable, perhaps disastrous; con sequences in a science fiction, the establishing of communes, and tqMorrow-that could materializeso quicklY ifiat man rioting:in the streets, thiyonesin are,Abehave beb woum uF-poweriess to do anyt14 4 to,protect himself they thong-hi that tli:gchieycynent,of at ..least some --1 frdiri . desitablelalternativei,Jeits:: entit*-ttniM,COnsCions'is-. Looking at thefltdie Has- ibuaLtaka2n -4;yery that.-action rests On,decistons011at rrest_nn-fOrecasts, and-thit forecastS'sest:Onycas'onable -..-Serious side. And a-vocation or avocation ifhas also, exCursiiisintolheplethoraitiinagniablitoblorrowS. semetitinivol4,grAthAndushy throughput e workrii 'because, accompanying this..7change in The growth, size, and composition of the,:-Euture's ;-.; attitttdo towafcrthetuture, and tq some extent causing movement is indicated? albeit only it,' -has been, t ithention. or rediscovery` tiirr surveys mentioned before. For example, :Erich, - , akilyti3Ocapabilities the creation Of new institutional Jantsch, ln his pioneering studyjn 1966, which took -forms, and the development ofnew outlets for hint "intiiihe Unitcd,.;StafesLi,We'Stern Europe, .and: tipression, wen as, a steady grOwtit in possible ,Israel, found abottt -106 'OegOizations pernia 7ctietAand actual unds, These are all dedicated in one pent. forecasting actmity,_pf which \more .thap 41- ' -". 4 _ "
.8111 p 4
percent, not .unexpectedly, werple, industry, with the may or niay not' have been'. a'ffifiatedwt ian rest distributed among government, academia, , and organization concerned 'with forecasting)..butafter independent research centers such as Rand them industry was most. important (wiIhover 20 'Corporation.l'Extrapolating from these 100cases, he , percent of the iespenses), followed by the universities estimated that just in the United States home 600-600 .(which Went frofn 10,to IS percent betweenthe two corpOrations had an in-house capability; additionally, surveys) and the nonprofits (withsome 10 percent). he concluded that about 500 corporations (many of and then. in much smallerOrcentages,aslociations them includedin, the pl-'dcalip-g group), plus an and religious gwups. uncounted number ofgovernment agencies and foundations, drekv upon theforecastingse,rvices, FrOm time to time, W. W. Simmons of Applied provided by outside private or nonprofit firms. Futures`,.Inc., in Connecticut,surveys organizations as Between 1968 and 1970, 'the Long-Term Planning well aS ad hoc groups and publicationsthroughout the'. and Policy Division of the Cotincikof EurOpe surveyed 'free world that appear to be involved in'whatSimmons forecasting itt.ten countries of Western Europe.z Ofthe calls "exploratory planning," which he defines asthe 292organizations whichitidentified,101were search for alternative futures in the period `about 15 governmental, 66 were in, universities,12 were years from the present. These reviews are informal and nongovernmental international organizations (e.g., lay ho claim to being comprehensive, but the resultsare Europe 2000), and the 'remaining 113were Private-or interesting in that they tend to .eonfirre what other independent nonprofit groups. studies show about the growth of intgrbst in studying the futgre and the distribution of the workamong A,global survey was undertaken in the sprinof,1970 various sectors. The re'sulth from the first three reports by HoUghton arid others England.3 They are shown in the table below.6 identified,nd sent a questionnaire to,490 individuals' and organizations (incluiiing ad hoc goupsithat they consideredto be NAL of the futures Movement. NUMBER OF RESPONSES Response' wergtk. received from 269 sourcesin November Octotat! academik governmdk indtistrY, foundations, and' SECTOR 1972 1973 19741175 elsewheie. Another imeasure of international activity / 5urvcy Survey Survey Corporations and 61isiness 1. can be found in the annualsurveys conducted for 4 past few years by the IRADES group in Rome. For associations 25 44 55 example, the 1972 dic.ectory lists about 20.0 organize Government agencies (U.S. a' tions, principally nongovernmental, that specifically and foreign) 16 34 \ $711NIkli -claim to specialize in forecasting. In total, however, . Independent centers (pri- some 700-800 perions and organizations are listed . thus including many of the friends andliequaintances vate.ponprofit_. of the futures movement.4 academic. etc.) 44 79 99. John McHale TOTALi .85 157 213 the!Unieessity of flousto'n has . conducted two'impOrtant surveys of forecasting in the . Unit the fi tgr in:1969- I97.0 and. the septid in Finally, there arg.the results from a surve§ made by 1971- 1972.5 The growth inthe number of practitionets Tlie*Fatife-stifoup in. August-Nomembet .1273 during between the two studies is suggested by the data in the the course of research for this book. The aim of the table kelow. In each study, governmenton all levels survey was to determine the kinds of research projects , currefftly being conducted around the World having to NUMBER do just with the advancement of forecaitin.g itself.? Because it was important to the' objectiVes is 1969-1970 1970 -1971 of PARTICIPANTS Suryey Survey research project as a whole to contactas. many -invited (institutions and organizations as could befound, thestudiesnientioned p ' individuals) 356 . 527 above, as well as a amber of-othersources, were , reviewed carefully -to extract names and addresses. Responses- 139 204 Altogether, 937 institutions in 42 countries* 'w.ere ., identified, of which perhaps 850-900 appearedtohave accounted for only about 5erceot of the responses. Complete at. least one substantivd futures-oriented Most of the responses came from individuals (who 'project _within the 'last few years, assuming itVery generous ,definition of what constitutes a futures But they do point in the right direction, and they also project. highlight the fact that "the futures literature" 'has
o Of the 937 organizaticps invited to complete The begun to be recognized as a separate category. This is signaled'as well by the appearance and increase over Futures GrOup's'questionnaire, 532 were based in the. 'recent years of journals aid newsletters specializing in United Slates,90 were from elsewhere in the Americas articles on or about the future:to (mainly Canada), 224 were in Western Europe, 36 were in the t1SSR and Eastern Europe, and 3-'3A were from Beyond publications, there, are other signs. The other areas (primarily.the Far East)`About 15 perett, upsurge in meetings and conferences explicitly devoted of the inviteesrespondecf7areasonablefigure, WI the future could be mentioned, and if there were time
considering the question that was askedand.for these .series data on these affairs (which there are not), they respondents the percentagidistribution among sectors would probably show at least a 10- or 20-fold increase as follows: over. the past 30 years. Allowing for every kind of subject matter,/ from the finure of printed circuits to the Individual , 5.4% Inditstry , -23,6 futureof mankind,fromthe methodOlogy. of forecasting recidivism to the methods of modeling Government '' 8.1 ,. Independent Research . glObal dynamics, it is plausible to imagine that, on an Center (privateor nonprofit) ...... / 23.6 annual basis, an 'average of two or three such meetings are held every day somewhere in the world and that this Association , ' ,9,5 number is increasing.. University 29.8 Y.2 Even more noteworthy is the fact that men1bers of . In short, 'While the numbers vary widely from survey ,the futures movement have increasingly begun to train to survey, a few inferences can be made from these '(and -thus multiply) their successors. This is happening data. First, no less than 100 organiiationsinthe United in nonacademic settings (such as the Industrial States, plus probably an equal or greater number in the Management Center headed by Jaines Blight)" and in rest of the world, are willing to associate themselves theestablishedforecastingorganizations (which' withthe- futures movement, and most of these provideon-the-jobtraining)andalsointhe organizations are actually practicing f6recasting, at educational system, on all levels. On the college and least, part of the time. Second, the:number of persons university level in the United States and Canada, where . involyed is no doubt many times greateir than the" the pattern has been investigated, the results may-well estimate of organizations. Third, the dumber of be representative of changes in other countries. In individuals and organizations in the futures movement, 1968, only about a dozen schoots were offering courses, has grown rapidly and rn4y still be_growing.8 Finally, for credit on tstudy of the future; in 1969, there were most work is beirrg performed in Organizations, and of abOut30; in 1970, there were 60; by 1972, the number . the organizations, about 50-80 percent worldwide are had doubted or tripled again, Similarly, from 9970 to . nongoverhme`nt.alythat is, they are industrial groups, 1972, the number of courses offered at these schools'
111 academic centets,private or nonprofit consulting' increased from about 40 to nearly. 200 (and perhaps as firms, voluntary groups, and so on. many as 400, if the data were extrapolated to the entire Many other signs provide additional evidence of the population)..12 Most disciplines appear to have their sudden burgeoning of a serious futures. movement. futurist now; as Eldredge puts- it, "Prisctically every Most dramatic perhaps is 'the' post-World War II imaginable subject has been futurized, every problem stretched into the future in this quiteAmazing hodge- . oarouring. of ,hooks, articles, reports, newspaper podge of courses."13 stories, newsletters and other" p-ublications-concerngd with the ftiture, either as an object of possible study. s suggested earlicr, and as even the raw,numbers (e.g.,essayson he ,philOsor practiceof presented so far would.seem 16 indicate, 'hodge- forecasting) or..aia'repositoryofpotential podge' may not he a bad description of the totality of developments warranting actual study (e.g., the future aims,activities, and accomplishme4 swithin, the of the family, of ocean shipping, or of the Common futureS movement itself, despite- appal' nt agrebment Aiarlspt)., Tlie 1971 IRADES directoryy for example, on one orAk,basic principles. Fortunat ly, it is not the contained a bibliography of 3;000 items; another effort 4FpurPose of this book to 'critique or' tlo attempt to in the same period led to the cataloging of more than impose a 'rational structure On the entire movement, 4, 20,000 titles. Neither'count, however, is even remotely the very fecundity of which seems in fact t6 depend , indicative Of the actual publication record since 1945.9 primarily,upon its uniquely ebullient and probably. , '14:0,
5,- unanalyzable diversity. Rather, the main concern in We would suggestthat,properly speaking, this volume is with a single small segment of the futures [systemsanalysis]isaresearchstrategyl a movement: the work ofthose persons and organiza- perspective- on the proper use of the available tions engaged in what haS come to be called futures tools, a practical philosophy of how best to aid a research. decisionmakerwith complex problemt of choice under uncertainty. In the absence of a good brief definition,systems-analysis-. .. canbe -A Definition. of Futures Research characterized asa systematic approach to helping a decisionma#er choose a Course of action by Though the term "futures research" has achieved investigating his full problem,' searching out, general currency,14 itstillis without an accepted 'objectives and.aliern'atives, and comparing them definition. A few years 4o, John Ma-late madean in light of their conseqUences, using an ap- 'effort to discover -w*t those who said theywere propriateframeworkinsofar aspossible practicing futures reiearch meant by the phrase. analyticto bring expert judgment and intuition Regrettably, the differences -between the answers he to bear qn.the problem.17 received were so great that a synthesis was not The 49 Words in italics Were written withgreat care;., possible.'s Outcomes this have led a number of they compress much, and they clearly deinanda close obServers to )conclude ' a'tat the Issue 'is "notvery reading. But there is nomistaking five of the key idelis important anyway" and that it would be fa Miter to in this definition. First, systems analysis is emphatical- "get on with it"whatever "it" isthe argument being ly not a particular activity; it is an "approach"to a analogous to the one expressed in thesaw that partienlat activity. As such, it is nota task that is either "geometry is what geometricians do." Obviously,a done or l ft undone, but rather a "research strategy" ' person can be a successful futures researcher (or thatis -tither adopted or not adOpted.18 Second, geometrician) without, being able to define hii field, systems. anas ispolicy-oriented:the analyst's and yet, just as obviously, it would be helpful to havea prinCipal role is to provide various kinds of informar definition,. particularly .forthe use of students, tion, all intended to help a manager 4clecisionmaker") potential participants, and clients outside the field who to act.19-Third,systems analysis isrdblem,Oriented: are uncertain as to how futures research relates to other the occasion for analysis is t e recognition
kinds of.forecastirig or who might wish to consider.1: perhaps tentativeof an existing or p ntial situation, what it means to."do" it.16 ;at mayrequire action. Fourth, while sy ,ems analysis:, 'vailempts to be as rigorous as possible in methodology, The contributors to this volume P - who would call '- is pragmatically oriented: analysis is impossiblel- themselvesfutures researchers and who actually without the conscious use of models ofone kind of {: . attempt to define the term in these-pages are no More in anothe, but the models chosen should be "ap- agreement with each other than are similar authors pr priate" tli' the problem and should take account of elsewhereor so it stems,_if the words they useare dgnient and,Mtuition." fifth, qstems analysis is taken literally. ertheless, there is a possibility., with,, future- oriented:asremarkedearlier, _decisions- a bit of historyt'%:pport it, thit the differencespay he neCesqarily imply forecasts; additionally, to investigate superficial and that a definition can be framebto which 4- the "fpll Rroblem" is to see it and a range of alternative, . thty and most ,other bractitioners of futures research, sblutons in their substantiVe richness and complexity.: would assent. This 'possibility, which arises precisely throug thfongh examination of contemporary papers,and- -* Now, jf.lutur'es reportsbyfutures researchers (that is, through study of 4esearch" is 'substituted foi"systems what they "do"), lies in viewing futures researcirits,a-^-4;.anals" in these fke points, or in Quade7s definition' branch, of systems analysis. as a Whole, 'we seeirtto hava gqod general statement of the major attributes mentioned by most futuresi Of course, systems- analysis itself is not easily researchers theinselves in defining. their. occupOon." defined, :but_E. S. Quade of The Rand corporation, FutAtres _6search,,kthey have said, is a new Way of where it all started, has articulated one of the better lookintnif the 'future (a slew definitionsone' which is adequate for bur purposes practical ,enterprise that focuses on effectinik change here. After reviewing (a*(id dismissing) several narrow (the invention and' assessment of actionable policies). formulationi, which amount to equatingsystems cannoe.and does not tacklethe, future in its infinite analysii to a particUlar method, a fixed set of methods, possibilities, but rather subolftitriizes to the level of ora kind'of repartApade concludes: issues that can be usefully, Duisued (the study Hof . dA, ., problems).. Its techniques are% ailed, and thechoice of secomfdefining feature of futures- research, therefore, one over another is determined in large part by the is that it tries to describe and fOrecast these matters, nature of the problem (pragmatism in methodopagy). sometimesbysynthesizinginformationalready And in forecasting and evaluating a spectrum of available the literature, sometimes by developing altgrnai'ves celevant to the problem, it is especially and testing a model, sometimes by cOnductiv a poll or 4. . .concernetocarr5' this analysis out to Vie end of the otherjudglnental kind of study involving a group, and future period of interest (itis futures:oriented). If one sometimes by a personal conjecture on the,part of the grants these propositions, the question is no longer analyst. By itself, however, this information ikof little . how Cutuies research differs' from ot4er, kincli- of value:The futures researcher makes it useful in the activities Within the fures movement, but how it policy context when he interrelat4, it with other kinds o;:lii.fers frdern sYStems analys ofinforribitionconcerning, say, prospective . *, :r A Wholly satisf4,ctoglianswerisProbably .not developmentsforecastedby economistsor possible, if only btause, it often happens that futures technologists-Tfot the practical purpose of,synthesiz- researchers find tgemselves working on 'the- sank ing a-reasonably cOmpretiensive picture of what the ' problems, Or at least in the same areas, that are being. world, or Sortie aspect of it, might be like in the future if studied by systems analysts who would not consider things- relevant to the problem in hand coptinue as in - the past.21 The result isi "standard" or "surprise- free" theinselvestobefutures. researchers. Thus the differences that exist between the two may be said to 'World, against Which_again, policies can be tested.22 ti :t lxist.,morein degree or relative emphasis than in kind. The very essence of futures research, however; lies in As a branch of systems analysis, then, what sets emphasis on the use of its socialpsychological data, futures research apart; is first of allits special emphasis forecasts, and special syntheses of forecasts to open the ,41 on. making ,explicit the subjective impressions and realm of choice by gtheratingalternative futures, Such altsinative flitures are, in effect, variatifs on the "models" of reality that are shared by particular groups '. within society or, within particular organizations and , standard World, aid tileir, useaka policy-generation -... that underlie (and, in fact, often determine) the choices and assessMenf tool' is is precisely the same. Writing in these grOups make. If the future that ultithately 1%7, AndreW Kopkind had some very sharp criticisms materializes is likely to be shaped lv a group process of the "future- planners," as he called them.23 His essay thntites a confused recollection of histOry or an isstillwell worth reading, especially by futures .. k unque, ned b.elief about. he permanence of a certain researchers, but he erred when he attacked the creation waypf.doing things or a bizarre Understanding of n of alternative futures_as being, of all the activities of' -or a'oduhious set of expectationsabout future chae, it futures research, "the most fun, but also the ,least is exceedingly impaitant to know that. ("If we believe responsible." He was wrong in thinking it fun, and Ile absurdities," said Radhakrishhan, "we shall commit was wrong in thinking it 'irresponsible, at least ..itf atrocities, ") Getting at these opinions and subjective principle. (Surely it is irresponsible if it promises too. models insofar*, specific problems are concerned much, as has often happened. And surelyitis offers some pronii-se seeing.more clearly the meaning irresponsible if the results are known to be inadequate of eroposecactions, It alsotan provide a firmer basis to the particular need and the user is not warned, as has `-' for anticipating what the consequ'ences' of particular also happened more tharronce.) The point in principl actions might be before they are taken. At the very hinges on the fact that the, standard world is worth, .
least, eliciting this information can make it possible to .studying precisely. because it seems so probable and -, because it is wortlf asking if this world, in all of its understand better the possible evolution of the world - . of greatest interest to the group and thus to minimize, major features, is really the one we want. But tins to sale extent, the uncertainties that will inevitably question can be posed and answered responsibly only r attend major choides or deyelosments. With reference to specific, well-defined alternatives that
, . . are. to .an.eztent wit an's power, within the time Futures research not only conducts investigations in - fiamebeing considere , what, might be calledpolicy;, social psy- . chology: but also attempts' to gather and organize . plicourse, since so -aspects of all imaginable lathes equally intangible kinds of information pertinent futures are now within our,powq, thissffort could be to decisio s:-111nature,bf potential wit* changes, of, endless.Nevertheless; some of thepossibilities,-,-* newpattensintheinteraction of people and particularly those that might evolvewithin or around ,institutions,and of the ,beliefs that may be held by " ourcurrentinstitutiOnal. frame,work,areun-
- questionably important candidates for analysikbefore those whoill; inheritI the/ effects of 'our choices. A % .... - , IT 1 A
committing ourselves, out of mere inertia,to the just as it must come into play in mast Of thdestabiishedi standaid'porld.'Hence, at $ts heaik futures research social and physical :sciences,25 Indeed,- they realized : scan be saiAl to place greate 'st stress on developing and that judgment had to be exercised from the. very, applying methods for sorting but the possibilities beginning, in the identificationoffactors, deserving close examination and helping in the work of relationslhips, and goals thatshould or could be examining them, especially thrOugh the integration of considered. As it turned out, this obvious perception , judgmental and analytic data. about the centrality of judgenen t in 'the analysis of On this characterization, futures research addsa complex systems was to bk of greater moment, than distinctive and important perspectiveto systems anyone could have guessed then. The reason is that analysis. But futures 'research does not replace other some analysts were;dissatisfied with the conventional kinds of forecasting. whether performedinside or way of dealing with subjectivity, .which at best was outside of systems analysis. Rather, it buildsupon the merely to admit its presence, to warn about its possible results they can provide, it extends these results influence, and' to recommend to the decisionmaier - systematically into the realm of judgment, andtseeks the user of the systems analysisthat he somehow take to, synthesize the whole into 'self-consistent and policy- it into dccouni when and to the extent he ,thought' feleNant intages. highlighting possible issues,oppor- appropriate. These analysts believed thatthere had to, tunities. d Policy alternatives thatcan make a be better means to derive and incorporate judgment formally in the analysis -and to communicate its .-differenceNis- is the achievement of alternative goal.- - influence to the policymaker, Thiy hope led themto experiment with novel methods of eliciting, evaluating, The'fkaginent of history that adds plausibilityto the. and integrating human opinion in systems, studies. idea' 'Of subsuming/fixtures 'research undersystelins analySis has to do with the early evolution ofsystems What happened as a result is not just that such , analysik 2As this approach began to define itself in techniques were devised=after all, as Ir. Jo on told .actual experience. it was recognized thatone of the us, nothing ishosed to diligence an' hard k, -but.. most significntleatures of thisnew enterprise was its rather that titi se techniques (scena io writig an l attempt to cope with what Quade, in the definition example) immediately proved usefuln an ap lication , quoted earlier.callsthe"full:*problem.Unlike which was only dimly foreseen: force sting its If. The alternativeapproachestoproblems ..3 -involving examinatibn of current and past lations ins i'' decisionsunder untertattnywhich typically take the vahies or situations 'is likelyo be im ossibleithout prblems, as stated. and set about solvingthem, the use of rudgment; the expl ration nd sync esis of s/stems analysis insisted on -another tack. Tosee future states of affairs, espeei Ily aso e,goes arther
problems in their entirety, ion all Of, their diftrensions, . and farther out nitime,,is certainly imp ssible*thout -Came to meanamong otherthingsthatthe analysts judgment; These techniquesrovided a way. Itis must be free task whether they are, ip fact, problems' hardly surprising, therefore, th t the m st famus ofz or the "right problems. This meant,n 3ur.n, that the 'them all was instantly dubbed theDeli techn'que, seopecof anyimportant inquiry had toesulfstamially after the Greek- oracle.
# broidened. In such cases,_ however,..siriceno one person could-possibly have all of the infOrmation When the history of litures"= earch iwritten its retluired to ensure that the investigation Was indeed' originswill almost, certainlye. trac to th se. comprehensive,,!systems analysis _demanded,a mul-, ',innovations in`methodologynot muchbecause of. iidisciplinary outlook,one which involved assembling. their intrinsic merits or even beuse othe truly teams of specialists from fields as diverse as engineer- emarkable` interest they generates thru hout ing, economics,, political science, rnathernatiss,;"and world as they became known, butrimrilbecause philosophy. .,. . these innovations now form theve e set,of° , techniques that. characterize the:pr futures, . The actual effbrt to bring different 'Viewpointsto research. Thus in searching for mean le with. bear,on the same e''''criiiplex problem and t'o do so in such, p/oblernI, systems analysis. in ye but a way .that key assumptions were Made as explicitly as decisively.tradsformed forecasting,ma sible possible, soon convinced most sykerni analysts thitt at (and obligatory, in many cases) to new = some poi t standard analytic technique'smust fairand t, opinip-gathering techniques to clarify, and .i, . that ludg entthemysterippg',,process whereby . extendprojection's Prepared through values, attitudes, and beliefs arenade to guide our ,,methods, such as Matheinatical trendsex n, expectations and Preferericismust conie ineo play, and to obtain certain otherwise unobtaina
I ,. ;-
information about the future. Thereby, it gave birth to thingsin the present, by comparing them, ,futures research.26 criticizing them, and discussing them, witht-a ` \As a distinct approach, futures research has been in perpetual insistence upon- why? without :any. guiding tradition; and indeed in the ,teeth of .. the background ofsystems analytiwork for about 25 established beliefs,to construct this amazing .It seems tp,have firsteorne to the fbrewith the searchlight of inference into the remoter. past-As ation in September 1964 of theclassic study by , n and Helmer on the Delphi technique.27 Four itreally, after all, such an extravagant and ter, to the month, the Institute for the Future-7 hopeless .thig to suggest ,that, by seeking for t \organization in the United States and one of operating causes instead of for fossils and by t , in, the world, formed to undertake futures criticizing them as persistently and thoroughlyas full timecame into existence. Since, then", the the geological record has been criticized, it may be nt1berf organizatibns,advocates, practitioners, and possible to throy a searchlight' of inference .pu licati Its has multiplied at a rate approaching that forward instead of backward and to attain toa of t e futd es movement as a whole, knowledge of coming things as clear, as universal- ly convincing and, infinitely more important to :PurdsosesiofThis Book- . mankind than, the clear vision of the past that geology has opened to us during the nineteenth Eno e has passed and enough research has c&tury? now bee perc rmed to make it worthwhile to examine critically the cl ims and accomplishments of futults His conclusion was as follows: research, with,view toward assessing where the I... suggest to you that, along certain lines and activity sta ds to ay, where it-might be heading, and with certain qualifications and limitations,a, where further progress may be slowed or stopped working knowledge of things; in the future is a eAtir1/4T because of theoreticalor practical'ractical difficulties. possible and practicable thing. For a variety of reasons, it is particularly important to ask-whether futures research hat proven or can prove Despite the histori'cal'ly important work of individ- capable- Of "Making forecasting less of an art and mote tlal scholars like Pitirim, Sorokin, Willialti,9ghurn, of a science." Behind this phrase lies tOe possibility.of aty and S.. Colum Gilfillan,29 the proposal implicit in recognize g futtire§researchas adiscipline a Wells's conclusiotvas hardly noticed ,agaiuntil, 'possibilitythat has been 'mentioned withmore midcentury. Writing MA 946, S. Lilley wds thus ableta frequenq . in recent years. Wel more important, poiht to. some of the barriers that still had tbs;,be howeverjs the f Urther possibility of realizing a vision overcome before this"science"could be achieved:: first articulated in this centtiry by H. d: Wells: There has been aS'Yet no important attempt to rI must confess that I believe quite firmly that an ' undertake; in detail the fundamentalanatysis that inductive knowledge of a great number of things would be...requiredto found-a science opredic- it the futurv.is becoming a human possibility. I g tion. The va attempts, though often ,made by believe that Ile time is drawing near when it win- men expert in, titcieific-method, have not yet `'lbe possible to suggest a systematic exploration off been carried out on an:essentially scientific basis' the future. And You must not judge the (prat< The .best that can said is that they are the ticability of this enterprise by the failures o1 the 4:erodticts, of tointuition; modified by a past; So far nothing hai beenattempted,so far no rational, bfar from systematic, survey of the first-clagsmind has ever focused itselfupon these available evideTee. Again, there has been noth -drssues. But suppose the laws of social and political , in the-ature of a "school= or predietiOrr-r-o. -Q evelopment, for example, were given as many. bringing together of a illitably balanced teamiof brains,'were given as much attentibn,_ criticism *_.....-L,..t ,scientists;technologists,, his orians-.and--, ', and discussion as we have given to .the,la,ws 'of sociologists; to give those severalears of Work chemical combination during the_last.504ears:- thatare esse'ntia'l to the-foundation of any science:. what might we not expect'?28 -,- ' Nor has there bee4tidiiy notable, deyelbpMent of Wells urged his readers to keep in*Mind the example that other and-Tooserforth of co- operation that is provided by the science of geology: frequently so frUitful,.inwhich several workers in, a field publish results, criticize and comment on . .if, it has beenpossible for men by picking put. the work of others, and by their mutual interact anumber of suggestive and:signtficant looking. .,tiOn advance the science they are interested. in. , 4 ' $ .- ,', . I ".
[Thusl are question is; Could the teamwork Of. .is the publication by The. Rand Corporation of-an ,many, devoted to a reall?scientific analysis.af the- analysis 6f tee Delphi technique which concludes that causation involved in technological progress, giVe "conventional Delphi is basically an unreliable and the sort of result' that is required? Could it make' ,scientifiCally invalidated technique in principleand possible pre4ictions of 95 or even 99 'percent probably in practice"this, _Wit_ 10 years aftert accuracy on which,it would be possible to take--r publication of the originak.Gdizreit-Iclelmerrep spelal action130 which was soinfluentialinestablishing futures All these conditions, and, others, have long been research. But the author goes well beyond Delphi: satisfied, at least in appearance, but Lilley's questions Consumers of informationon the future need far ' remain, tyloreoveria good Many additional questions better advice and protection from contributing have been faiSedrand seek answers. professionals than they have gotten to date. The x 4. p To provid these answers, it is firstnecessary to future is far too important fthe human species,' examine thepresent, state-of-the-artof futures to be left to fortune tellers sing new versions of research, not only in methodology, but inevery. other old crystal balls. it is time for the oraclesto move, dimension.' as suggested by the outline inTable, 1. out and for science ta-Tove i11.33 -Some authorities who have already attempted sucha T review have'been disinayed by what they found. Dror; The language is harsh and the logic is flawed, but the for example, has concluded that the state-of-the-art is, thr stis clear. 1Similar ideas have been expressed to put it politely, "UndeVeloped":' worse yet, endlesS le els hpi-e. Of t contributors to this vol e, som repetition of accepted ideas has taken the place of real innovation: agree most disc ree, but all cast further li ht ,onthe issueinvolved. , .t. . . -
Careful perusal offutures studies literature -and, and
shared several times over.32 . . ly? What opPortunities,can be enhanced? To what estnt would futures research be ;affected if these In effect, it is one purpose of the chapters in this bOok stuies were performed? not only to repeat [Nor's analysis, but also to widFn It so that topicsjikethoselh the outline'are at least Ifarbeek argued by Theodor touched upon: J. Goittlori.carlid. , man would' agree, that. "futuresesearcli is 'city embonic discipline, a collection of,teniqges an Again t this background, it is thennecessary to eStifria es, With [orilly] a *Ilan), unifyingp tlbsophy. 'exploretiecrucial issue of whether the strengths that [As suc Jitsresearch agenda is'immerfie.'4i This book are fou.nd can be enhanced and the Irniitations'or \arose principally from, an intere,st in"testing this weaknesses can be overcome, Has futures research, in. argument.15 And, as will be seen, the fontributors whole Or in part, gone as far as itcan go? A second ' verwhelminglyeoncur. Hundreds.ofresearch projgcts purpose of this book is to try to formulate answers.to .a e suggested in, the pages that follow,. of these; a ttas question, tq distinguish wish from reality, andto re arkably large number are directed at the most discern blind spots in the perceptions.' of 'futures fundamental issues fang futures -..tesearoli. Taken researchers (or the users of futures research) )aboin this .together, they define ieleast' the beginnints,. ofan vocation. Symbolic of the significance of this question. 'agenda that 'obviously warrantsprompt, thoughtful,.
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. ;1 20 dos r
TABLE 1 4. A POSSIBLE FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING THE STATE-OF-THE-ART IN FUTURES RESEARCH (Six Working Categories tot Interest, with'Representative Types of Problems), 1. PlilLOSOPHICAL AND CONCEPTUAL ISSUES non to be learned from, similar activities 1. Established disciplines (economics. sociology. - A Possibility of "knowing" the future anthropology. psychology. political-science. B The nature of time. biology. etc.) C Defining "rate of change- . 2. Multidisciplinary approachesIsystems analysis. DThe nature of probabihtks operationsreseaich, management science, policy. E Futures research as a science science. risk-analysis. research and development F Criteria (accuracy, rationality. reproducibility. etc.) planning, corporate planning. technolotechnologyassess- 43 . ^ ll' SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES ment. social indicators. value analysis. etc.) 3. Other areas (lire trts, parapsychology. history. etc.) k', Subjects chosen for forecastingin the past 'D. *IiistitutIonalization futures research I. Areas of most emphasES and the significance thereof I. Academic centers ' 2 Areas of least emRhasis and the significance thereof 2 Nonacademic centers (industry. government. etc.) 3 tatecl criteria for selection . 3. Professionft organizations 4. Possible unstated criteria (e g ideological differences. 4. International centers,* attituZies in paiticular sectors, such as academia, ;, government, and industry) V. ISSUES OF COOPERATION Reasons for success and failure A. Influences on. cooperationaiki collaboration I. In social forecasting I Institutioal form 2 In technologil forecasting 2. Sources of support 4 3. Infdecastivg value-changes - 3. Political factors, domestic or international 4. k Ills METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 1. - fdeological factprs B Problems of communicating research results A. Possible improvements in types of methods .1. Time delays'. I Judgmental techniques (Delphi. games and 2. Publication costs simulations, polls and surveys, scenario, 3. Language barriers Wnting, etc ) VI t 2. Quasi-judgmental and mathematical teFliniques,(trend ISSUE OF IMPLEMENTATION AND .1./§E, - correlate nand analysts, computer models, matrix A. problemt involving use ofthe literature analyseetc.) I. Dissemination systems B. Possible imp vementi i monitoring systems" - 2. Storage and retrieval systems C Problems of sthesizing forecasts from different domains. . '3., Handling of priltrietarY, classified. or o therwise . .IV.PROFESSIONA- ISSUES . sensitive materials 4. Probletk of minimizing duplicatioq of Work A.Edticatioh and training inutures researehc Use of and abuse of forecasts V B. Problems-iillrolving standar L, Inmonitoring syStems 1. Ethical standards in thpractice of utures research 2. In planning systems 2. Publication standards ( ethnical and popular).. 3. lo actual decisionmakifig C Relationship to, and lesionsn methodology oripplica- C. Means of improving the use of forecasts i'i= . '-`44tw,.
. ,. cooperatiVe and sustained antofry praflitioners said that t he has confirmed or denied the possibility of futures research Ind by othindividuals and that "a working knowledge of . the future is a organizations that would like.;o\ extend futures4 possible and practicable thing-7_ research to that uttermost limip.4./ere..it can fairly be
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21` 4,,
a ' 4%4, FOOTNOTES v v A o
I Erala ntsch. Terhnologibal Foreco. mon Perspectim(Paris: for English-language items. 12;cause among oilier igings. It leaves Organiation for Economic Co-Operation and Developpent. 1967).' totally outof account all of tht4 publications that project trendsor Despite:its -early 'date" this volumeremains one of the few , that include those very interesting and sometimes very important indispensible books on the philosophy. techniques. and =uses of forecasted events which are too imprecisely stated to bequrmed frcasting. o after the fact or:vhich either?positdesirable goalsor declare "European Inventory/Of Long-Term Forecasting ictivitiei." intentions.. -- Filityrs Vol. 2., No. 4 (December 1970). p 381. , 4 14Itwould, hoWever,be a misbake:to read too_much into;this 3 Charles De Holliton William Page. and Guy Streatfeild. development. important. thougliitisto ta establishment of And Now the Future: A PEP Survey of Future Studies, Vol. 37. forecasting as a ,di.sciVine, siyce'most popular. icademip, and .. Broadsheet 529 (London. PEP. August 1971). itechnical journals have always carried such articles. Proof of this ' Social Forecasting Ideas.Men.Organizations.Activities gbservation, if proof is needed, can be found in Michael Marten's"A (Rom IR AbES 1972) Incidentally. the diiectones published by World Institute Gum tO Futures PtCochcals," Fields within Fields, IR A DES are,unquestionably among the 14st stiurces of information sNo. 12 (Summer r 24)..pp. 65-6 which describes, in addition to,18 ' on, the movement. even though the user must4ndure all of the non-English-Perio.dtcals and Ifuturesriewsletters. the 100 English- problems that ono would expect, when editors whose native! language periodicals Marrenttclged /R) be "most relevant to the isIndian receive questionnaire responses in many differ future." Not surprisingly, the list of,100 incjudes thefthreeor four 1iinguages and Olen issue them in Englishwithout benefit of futures journals (The Futurist, Futures, Technological Forecasting_ professional tradslation". and Social' Change. and Long Range P/anningknot,surposinglr ,John Mc kale. Typological Survey, of Fittu4s Research in the either, the rest of the list consists of publications that would be- S (Binghamton. N Y Center for Integrative St'udies. School of known to most intellectuals. but hardly be "command by theto be Advanced Technology. State University of Nevaork. 1970). and A futures-oriented. despite an occasional article on forecastMg,. Continuation ante Typolical Survey of Futures Reseaffh, U.S. planning, change. or. zhe fture. 'This is not a cr:tocisln of Marien's (Binghamton.N Cente for Integrative Studies, School of "Guide." which can seivesera! purposes; but it is a reminder that Advanced Techndogy, Srat' University of New .York, 1972). As -.One need only specify hicriterion for identifying a "futures illustrated in Chapter 16. it ese reports contain a good deal of periodical" and such a Igt cp fall readily 'ph:rho-11cl. (Marie n's basic additional detaila_the mole . suchas the academic training ot criterion, was/his: "If a CAW seenied to me to promote broad theparticiparQ5. areas' of, rofessidnalinterest, size of itheir and creative thinking /about the fUture,tthatis also rigorous and organizations. meilAs user, 0. "hnd1000.More recently, theresults responsible, aticLoi: potentiabenefit tomankind's interests. fheiyit from an international questionkasurve9 were published:see John was included.") Tile significant pally is that alipostalljournalsand McHale and Magda!ColldellicHale. Future Studies:An Inter - magazines have more au:1.111(3re. frequentirptiblished articles oink national Survey (New York: 1-s4ted -Nations Institute for Training future. $, . . add Research':1975) 1h.this sttiayo 3.000 questionnaires were mailed II In ,1967. the Industal.Vinagement Center offeredhat and 926 returned, of which 414 were frominstitutions'and 512 front appears to havt been !the. first cotii-se, outside Of 'acadefilia, on Individuals (254 of Whom responded on their Own behalf, while the technological forecasting, anti this activity has continued since then. /remainder responded for their, iniOutions), ,, . The, firstcourse (is documented in Jules R.Bright(ed.)... . 6W W Simmons, ExPloratool Planning Briefs 1Greenwich, Technolosgical-Forecctsling fir Industry and doverizritent:.Mediods Conn W W. Sinimoris:NovemberM72 and October 1973). and W.. and 'Applications '.(Englewood PIM, Nfr:'Pventice-Hall4 Inc.. W, Simmons, 1974,1975 Explora(oriZ',Plarining Briefs (New York: 1968). Taken, together with Jantsch's book (fn. 0, as wellasthe1962 Center forPlanning and. Impleme)itation of theA?nerican reports byRalphCharles Lenz,,,JrTpchnoliigical Foxasting. 4 Management Associations, 1975).\ ,. , . ed., -Report ASD-TDR-62-414 4Dayion, Ohio: 04,01-potterion ' A summaryof th(survey result is-Presented in the Appendix. Air Force Base, Aeronomical Systeths,Div1sion, Jdne 1962), this I Allowance must be made, of 'course, tor titp fact that those who vohltne .captpres very .well the state-of ittoeet in technological. conduct the ,surveys are btcoming btetteravidentifying potential kwecasting n the '1960's. respondents. My own impressiOn is that\thgrowthin$ganizations These figures are from H. Wentworth Eldredge, "EducAtion for halt essentiallystopped, except perhaps *academia, while the Futurism in the United States: An.,Cfn-Gding Survey ad Critical ,number of practitioners is eiintinuitig to ris `but at a much slower Analysis," *Technological Forecasting and Social Cflange..Vol. 2 V , . rate thanynlye:1960; I 970'period. .. . (1970). pp. 133-148; -1111.1i Rojas. "Teaching the FiliWe."- Change ' t Thesbibijography in this book include' °me 1,000 titles, which is, (Jinuary.Febivary; 19'71), 13p.I 7-19; and 1-1. We ntwMii Eldredge . nierelta knit( subset of titles-drawn Ost .6sClustvely front:the and Billy Rojas, "'A Mark.I1 Survey and Critique of Futures English-lanittage literature Of juit thest decadcgin the possibility Research 'Teaching in 1+1orthAmerica,' Technological Forecasting* of studyinglite future. Moreover, itmits the litbstantive work. andtiocial Change, Vol.. 4 (1973), PP, 3,87407. A thice.survey, which is easi the largest categoryIf a 'substantive Maims reporting thudh-ihe same xesults for the perm:4973-J 974, v7as wider), pnblication can-birder] ned as a self-contained docunitht (b9ok. nevi hub!. N See. for example, H. 'W entwoktp. Eldredge, '}Future) Magazitiarticle. dr whateler). whichincludes at laSt one forecasted Studies 4 the University," Fields within Fields, No. 144(Wolter), event that can be unambiguously confirmed after the preljected date 4 1975). pf. 69-80. or Eldredge, "Univeikity Educationin Fyture 'of 6jcurrince a 'saving occurred or not occurred the GNP of 5., Studies:A k III Survey," Futures (February 1975), pp. 15-30, It v the United States will reach 52 trillion in current dollars by 1982).1 ., should be mentioned that:Oen survp s go far, beyond countirig' estimate that at last 100,000 such publications now appear annually schooli, courses, professors, students and subjects. They provide in,English alone But this is a very conservative estimate indeed, even what is perhaps thebestaccOunt of current thinking within academia . - , -4.1 0 I . ; 12 '22- $ ,
, . .., - z about the value of studying (or teaching about) the future , \ ,Another works, Modercifu.ture researchis trying to correct this deficiency." excellent source of information is David C. Miller and Ronald L. % (Cazes, "Opportunities and Pitfalls .of-Future-Oriented Hunt A Graduate. Level Survew of Futures Studies. A Curricullim Research." I ' in G. R. Urban (ed.), Can fl/e'urvive Our Future'(New Y6rk: St. Development Project (Washington. D C.. Office of Education, U.S. Martin's Press. 1971). pp 351:067; the quotation is from'p. 352]. Department of Health. Educationoand Welfare, August 3 l, 1972); . \ 22 For a good presentation Of the concept ofa"surprise see, as well. Harold G Shane. The Educationul Significah ckof the -free" world_teenerman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener.The YearODP: A 'Future (Bloomington. IndPhi Delta Kappa, Inc.. 1973) )... Framework. for Speculation orl the Nei ThitmThre'e Years ( lye " Eldredge and Rojas, "A Mark II Survey and.Critique."op.sit., w ... YOrk: The MrmillanSoinpaicy, \I967), p 399 . .% 1r ,i 23 Andrewopkild, "'The Fut* Planners." The New Republic. "Over the years great manyother have been used: .. Vol. 136. No. 8 (FebruarY 25; 1967).pp. 19-23. futurology. futuristics, futurism, 'future' studies future lesearch. 24 For greater ditail on whatfollows,see in particular Bruce L. R. mellontolog. and so on. Exceih as noted later in the ter.i.t hese may Smith, The Rand Corporation: Case Study ofa Nonprofit be t.q.en as...rough synonyms for each other Advisory and for' WiTir es Corporation (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. research 1966) "0 'and. in% less scholarly vein. Paulickson, Think Tanks(New 13 For a sampling of the difinitions,seeAppehdix G York: (rtp.69-72) OP,',..," Athenetim, 1971). the first of the two studies cited in fn, 5 The sample is . fascinating 25,0n this essential point, see Olaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher. _ throughout, Consider, for exarrirt. justsionle of thegenera usedin "On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences." tho definitions "the study of Management "".the assessment of. .. ";"thed A ,Scece. Vol 6. No. 1 (October 1959),pp. 25-52:" . process of _study. analysis and simulation Of . ":, "the effort . 26Nictor C.> Ferkiss, in his admirable book. Tel'hnologicalMan: to ", "the study, forecasting, design. and realization of "', "art The Myth and the Reality (New York: George Brazillier,Inc., 1969), organized techniqq.e for ". "an investigation of probability that is offers a somewhat different lineage. ','The techniques ofsystems ". "educated guesses about ", "the search for, -':, and so on analysis and the study of the future were bornas twins" (p. 24). Predictably. the specific defining e, termsfollowing these phrases are 17 Theodore J. Gordon and Olaf even more varied. Helmer. Report on ;-"Long- Range Forecalung Study, Paper?' -2982 (Santa Monicaalif4he ''' It might also be useful tofrirosaknirlaspective individuals within '' Rand Corporation. September 1964);an abridgement of this study - the field who must certainly wonder from time to time about what it appears as an appendix in Helmer's Social,Technology (New York: is they are "doing" $, :Basic Books 1966). For histo'rical perspective, it shouldbe 'ngted '' E S . Quade. "Introduction," in E S Quade and WAT.Iloiteher . that the first work on Delphi and associated judgmental techniques (eds.). Systems Analysis and Pohir Plannigg: ;4p`olicatns pi begat at Rand in 1,94-1949. . . Definse (New York American Elsevier, 1968).p. 2 (Italicin the original) . , 2" H. G. Welts, "The-Discovery of the Future," Nature, Vol'65. , . 1o. 1684 (February 6, (902), pp. 326-331; the following 1, That this distinction has a practical significance is illustrated quotations by are from pp. 328-329. -the fact that novice systems analysts, no matter how wet . $ trained 29 Se'e C ')apter 5. , academic'ally, often find it difficult to discover ' is'. where and how to ,0 ,, Lilley, 'Can Predictior Becomea Science?" in Bernard, oferblgin their first independentwork on a real-world problem. (The Barber and Walter Hirsch (eds.), The ,5'ociology.of Science same is often Ink. of course, among novice futures researchers (New .-11-erti(: The Free P s of Glencoe, 1962). p. 145. in, 1949, Oslip, . including some who arc experienced in systems analysis.) Collo:, pechth,tim formallWlled for thecreation of "futurOl6gy." a science ..4 quially. hoWev r the distinction is constantlyblurred,though not,A,,, in the modest sense of being "not soslifferent fromsome of.the denied . . , umanities (for insta nce,-musicology) or from the social sciences (for 19 Needless tosay,the analyst and themanagerCan be the same . instance, history orpoliticalscience)." See Flechtheim, person lort he ,same group) We can andsometimes do adopt a "FutorologyThe New Source of Probability?" inAlvin "Toffler , systems approach in generating our own policies. individually Or (ed.), The-Futurists (New York: Random House, /492).pp. collectively, as we week to mollify our lati, enlarge 264-276. our freedom, " 0'310 (1967). Kyoto (1970), Washington (.1970),Ihd Bucharest . cilium our legacy. and "manage"our lesser .affai.But in the el972).:' * ordinary life of organintions and ofgiciety,the-a alyst and the iort '2 Yehezke1 Dror, "A ThirdLook at 1FuturesStlidies.". ,manages are usually not theme sa me. Indeed, it,is frequently the case Technological Forecasting 9nd Social Change, Vol, 5, No 2 (1973),'.. that policy makiffg is complicatedor essentially blocked because the p. 11 I. . responsibility foi-,one fu-nction or the other (or both)is ton diffuse. 1- 3'' H."S'ackman. Delphi"Assessment: Expert Opinion,Forecasting, 10 For reasons consideredat length in chhister 12. this conclusio and Group Process. Report R-1283-PR (Santa Monica. Calif.:The , holds only for praCtitioners outside of the Communist orbit. Whit, Rand_Co_rporation. April 1974). p. 73:The precedingquotation is increasingly becoming enamored of Western.style systems.analysig. from'''. vi ( 'the Commuilists define. practice, and rationalize "prognostics"in- a- '4 Theodore J. Gordon, manner that is still unique to them. The Current Methods of Futures _. , ,-Tr....,....._Research:- in.?vin Taller, The Futurists (New York: Random 2i In an impressively candid and thoughtful discussion. BerOara House. (972): p. 188. , , _Cans remafks that father studies of the future suffered "froone '3 In fact, the original research agendas-onsidereCdurimothe basic fault their autfibrs were prophets of the, future; they had no course of preparing this volumewas the list of problems offered by notion of how society hangs together; which elements' are I Gordon in the paper cited above. susceptible. to change than others, how senZietyas a system really -
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13 k .23. *v.
Chapter 2 , . A New PerspeCtiveob ForecastingMetho- dology
-"Herbert Gerjuoy
Ciimnionly used morphologies of forecasting tech- Assumption-related intrinsic forecasting methods, niqUes are reflected in the outlines presented intexts on as opposed to process-related or output related futures research such as those written by Jantsch, Methods, are distinguished by their emphasis on the Bright, or Martino.' For the most part these morphol- kinds of. assumption that underlie the forecasting ogies are necessarily brief and are either serial descrip7 procedure. Clearly, forecistin4methods may vary tions of methods or are partitions of the "space" of essentially independently with respect to their assump- pthsible, forecasting methods 'that seem to be defined tions and the sort of output produced when these more by the existing methods themselves than by the assumptions are embodied in a forecasting procedure. universe of possible methods. Moreoyer, aya riety of different:procedures are clearly. Althdughclearly it would be impossible to define Compatible with a number of alternative assumptions this universe unambiguously andfor alitime, It is my or kinds of output. This is not to suggest that there are hope in this chapter to set down a framework'that not natural affinitiet between particular assumptions. points in this* direction. I believe, that essentially all particular, processes, and particular kinds of output, . methods-for forecasting can IN 'located within this These affinities, however, reflect convenience,custom,..._J framework, and the place for many not yet invented or commonalities in outlook far more often than they can be found. A classification scheme is-presented here 'reflbctofundamehtal logical copectiont that compel the linkage of a particular process Or kind of output ., 'for forecastipg Methods in the hope that it Will suggest new)bethods andill spark discussion which can-lead with a particular set of assumptions. For example, the . to better organi n and improved -communkation assumptions that underlie the method of forecasting within the develop'g discipline. called "judgmental" below would appear to be-most compatible with assumptions that take into considera- The general structure on which this discussion is tionunprecedented events .(asintrend . impact based is shown in Figure I. In this scheme the methods analysis). Nevertheless judgmental methods clearly: of forecasting can' be defined in teals of'cohtrasting could be used, for example, in the extrapolation of pairs of attribtites!"The presence or absence of partico: events by no means unpXecedented., Furthermore, 'gar attributes, singularly or in conibination, uniquely unprecedented -events intit be forecasted by an. defines rciethod' types. While such a list of facetscan algortithm that depended upon other forecasts about be extremely 1814, I focus here on what appear to be Ric future (since, by definition, unprecedehted events the principal pairs. Let us consider these inorn. cannot be forecast from itinlarities in the past). - Periodic or Aperiodic r 4 ..forecaiting algorithms usually assume, in effect, Intrinsla Assuthption-Related thatythe future will in some way repeat the past. Otte -04vkmajor class of algorithms generates forecasts thatare ' Forloasting Methods the sums of simple periodic functions,.,such as sine functions, differing. only in parameters suclias their, '- Intrinsic forecasting methods, as opposed to extrin- amplitudes, frequencies, and phases. For example, sic methods, u e forecasting criteria internal to the spectral". analysis and related Fourier-component forecasting proc 'Thus, for example, they do /decomposi,tions of past trend data may Be 'used to not rely on critera that depend on the use to which the 'identify" the simpl periodic, functions. wholesums forecasts will, be41. - are projected into the future. Autocorrclation and
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FORECASTING METHODS
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autocevariande methods also are used to identify the the main component-analysis methods that fit past weights and durations of cycles of *period lc compo- trend data and then extrapolate the fitting function out 4 nents If a sufficient number of past Rata components is into the future. The fitting function:however, isnot:Ili& ':identified," then a perfect fit of the past datacan sum of periodic components but rather of aperiodic always, be accomPliihed Und the forecast wilt be that ones. the future trend repeats the past trend with a period corresponding to the time interval over which pait data Like the Fourier analysis methods, such methods are. available. Clearly, this is usually unreasonable, Usuallycan, in principle, fit any set Of past data to any because the availability of past data is not a fundamen- desired level of approximation (i.e., they usually tal charactefistic of the system about which forecasts involve selecting a fitting function froma function ace to be -*Id e. family sufficiently general that a member of the family Can always come as close as may be desired toany pos- Usually, ;what is done is% to forecast using onlya sible set of data). relatively stria' nYirnher of periodic coMponents,the Smallest number that conjointly "accounts" for thepre- # Typical of such methods is polynomial curve- fitting ponderance of the variability in the past data. There is or, more particularly, the method of orthogonal a variety of goodness-of-fit statistical tests commonly polynomial component anlysis. This methoci fits to the used to determine whichcomponents to use and how past data a series of components, each of a ;different many. pure algebraic degreea constant, a first degree or lin- ear term, a quadratic term, a cubic, and so on It is well One trouble with such an approach is that selection knownthat any continuous single-valued functioncan of the set of components to be used for forecasting is be approximated by such a polynomial to any desired made to depend on the goodness of fitof the forecast- ° level of accuracy. In general the greater the number of ing formula to 'past data Such anapproach, unfortu- components used, the greater the accury that may be nately, neglects the possibility.tliata poor ,fit may be attained. due to the influence of unique events in the past that uniqutliy perturbed the-Arend. A 'forecasting- method Usually preference is given-to lower-degreecompo- -that aSsstitnes that bumps or ripples in the past trend nents, and these are often."extracted" first. Thus past line must be reflected in the future by tnereappearance data-play first be approximated by a constant, suchas of such buirips of by the presence ofdperiodit cdmpo- their mean. Then the "residuals" or Oviations from nent in the future trend Mat echoed 'such a bump or Op:: maybe estimated by ,a trend line, the ple would erroneously predict that a unique past event- residuals fromothse trend ay be estimated by a would happen again and again. For example, theone- .parabola, a s on. With eriodiczfunction estima: iitne-only achievement ofescape (from. the earih's tion, there is no corresponding hierarchy of possible gravitational field) v locity generateda sharp upa. rd periodic components, although prograMsmay rely on1 excursion in the trencurve representing the largest human judgments to give precedence to specified,time distance an Object can be moved by human-generated intervals, suet(is day, week, month, or yea.Analo- force. There is no reason to believe that periodicity in gously, ftscimetimes maybedesirable tooveitidethe. the* processes that led to this achievement would,for typical aperiodic-forecasting- alforithm's preference ,xatnpre, make achievement Ofescape velocity from for low -degree components. For example, snuppoka the- solar _system and the galaxy predictable by-trend curve cbtild be fitted exactly by the ftinction periodic-function extrapolationfrom these data. y = x" . 441bto Anther fundamental weaknessofperiodic - function trend extrapolation is that much trend data Commonly used orthogonal polynomial,component . * clearly show aperiodic secular trends,-such as the trend analysioalgorithms Would, instead, fit a series of lower- Upward in world population. Blind application ofa degree "Components," so that -by.theitirne the eleventh periodic-function algorithm to such data might well degree was considered (if it wouldeven be reached) its generate a forecasted_trend that was a sawtooth curve, contribution to the total prediction valiance wo,uld,be, falling back to base-line minimumor "starting" popu- quite small. - . . lation at regular interval's: . A fundamental weakness :Of 'polynomialcurve- fitting methodS is that they generate 'extrapolations Considerations such as'these have led to the devel- that mat go either to plus or minus infinity for -the dis- opment 'of" avariety of 'aperiodic forecasting tant future (and also, retrospectively, for the distant techniques. Like the periodic techniques, theyare in 4 past). Hence, if the trend is extrapOlated far enough-,it .i., . - A \ ,16 necessarily goes off scale. Moreover, the fitted As- Karl Pearson Pointed, out, the choice ofa function is of odd degree, then the forecast aboutthe particular estimation or forecasting algorithm rests future necessarily goes to the oppte infinityfrom ultimately on a purely judgmental selection of the func- that of the retrospectiVe extrapolati . For example, if tionfamilyfor whichthenecessary parameter population growth is-fitted bya cubic function then, estimates are to be made. This judgment is clearly according to the trend-fitting function, theremote beyond the realm of 'statistics an unfortunate, fact future must trend toward' infinite populationand the that brings with it a certain-sense of hopelessness abort remote past must have-seed (absurd) infinitely nega- the rigor of the estimating process itself. Typically, the tive populationor vice versa, Witha positive infinity only recourse (and a very modest olie) has been for the in the past and a negative infinity in thefuture. analyst to experiment with several ,differeht function On the other hand, if the function is of even degree, families, ultimately selecting the function thatgets the then the two infinities must be °lithesame sigit. Even best score on some figure of merit, such as goodness of if the idea that in the very distant past andvery distant fit to past data.. future the trend must be to infinity is not too disturb- A new approach to this problem . can be envisioned mg, it seems hard to accept the fact that choosing an which uses a new class of algorithmsfunctionfamily odd or even 'degree for the equation determines determining algorithms. To do so, the notion of afunc- whether the distant future is forecasted to be like the lion space can be introduced, a space whose elements di§tant pastor as different as possible. This is particu- arealternativepossiblefunctions.This familiar, larly Oisturbing because the degree used is often deter- mathematical notion has not been used to deal withthe minefd by a goodness-of-fit test that.depends on the "decision"problem,largelybecause thereish variability or turbulencof the past data, which hardly nondenumerableinfinityofpossible functions. seetns relevant 4f,ittich sign infinity is approached in However, this obstacle might be accommodated,as in the limit. - the comparable problem of the nondenumerable infin- This weaknep ,of polynomial curve-fitting methods ity of possible subsets of the unit linesegment dealt contrasts with the weakness of periodic methods, with in measure theory; by the construction of the equi- which keep resetting the forecasted trend lineto the valent of the Borel subset of this nondenumerableset. same old initial Value at the start of each forecasted e A function will be thought- of as consistingof a future cycle. Clearly what is needed is acombination of sequence of primitive or derived operations on oper- periodic and aperiodic irOhods, embedding them both ands in its domain. Each operationwill be either. in a more general class of estimation procedures,.`so unary or binary. The result in all cases will be single- that it will be possible to generate more- reasonable esti- valued. Successive operationsare defined as acting on mates about the remote future, when this is relevant. the esult of all preceding operations,as if that result (For short-term, as opposed to long-term, forecasting, were enclosed in a single large parenthesis., the problem israrely serious, because aperiddic forecastsdo not have the time to go off scale and Peri- For example, a function May stmt, witha domain, odic ones do not get beyond a Single cyCle into the the variable x, which ranges from negativeto positive future.) infinity. The first operation night be thearctan func- - tion, a_unary operator proddinga value in the range Finally. it must beempeasizedthat it is rareljtrea- 7r1 2 to -r/2,The next operator might be the binary+ sonable to extrapolate using purely-periodicor purely operator, operating on the result of the first operation aperiodic techniques. TItie are usually both periiidic and (Since it calls for two operands) the number-5.31. and aperiodic componenwin a trend. Present tech- This would simply add '5.31 to the result of the first niques generally require softie soft of precedence rule 1. .1 operation. The next operation might be the binary' for extracting the components either the aperiodic exponentiation operator, taking the resultof the components are extracted first and then periodic comb preceding step to a power-specified bya second ope- ponents are extracted from some relatively undigesti- rand, which mighit be, for example, the originalx, ble rssidual or vice-versa. There is nothing in principle giving at this stage . that- precludes treating. periodicand aperiodic compo- xz.,p nents on a par with each other in competing for favor y[arctan(x) +. 5.317 ag components that "accomr for trend .data. The process could start withsome finite set of primitive operators; for example) the set of funetioni Function Family Determining Or Function Family available in the standard FORTRAN_ library+, Assuming **, SQRT, SIN, SINH, TANH, LOGE, etO.Ifcorn- plex numbeis are included in thlo4omain, then it is pos- may be sampled when the limit on the number of sible to so define the primitive functions that they are operations is not low. almost alway,s' defined. Alternatively, certain opera- Another innovation, however, is introduced at this "lion's-may be forbidden, e.g., arcsin(-3). point. The set of priinitive operators may be termed the.. The function space now can be defined as the set of primitive lexicons of the systefn. The system may be all functions that consist of a finite, or denumem bly designed to take'note of each function derivedfrom the infinite number of steps of defined application of the primitive operators that earns a "best" figure of merit, primitiye operators. This space can be further reduced and such a function may be added to the lexicon, as if it by considering only .those functions that consist of no'- .were a single-step function rather than a composite. more than some small finite number of operations, ?Thus the lexicon can grow, and effectively more and e:g., iyalt which would give rise to a set of functions, more complex functions can.be used, asIfthe limit on suclr as, the number of operationshad been extended, (x + 5)*29.32, SQRT(-x), SINtANH(x)], etc. This innovation is .compatibletwith both complete coverage of 'all. combinations of a small number of . . The particular function to be niecrin a givencase operators and ,sampling in the case where the number could be determined by applying a figure of merit to of operators that comprise a function is.large or the functions in a function sample drawn by random selec- number of primitive and -derived operators is large tion frOm the functioi space. Alternatively, where the itself. The probability of selecting a particular operator space Was finite, all-function% in the space could be as the next step in construction, of a function may be
tested. Note that this approach treats numerical con- , made to depend on the frequency of its appearance in, . stants is kiset of auxiliaries to the operators. Since they ' "successful" functionsthe more often an operator 1 are infinite irrnurnher (or, in a finite computer; of very has been used, the more its,probability of being drawn large ntanbt6, itlseems best that they should be drawn may be increased for additional use. Furtjier,he con- -at-rundorn. In additiOn, the initial variable (x in the ex- text in which an operator appears may, be Miceli into ample), plus all preceding stages in the evolution of the account. For example, the likelihood that an operaus function [e.g., SQRT(x)] shopld also be available for is drawn may be made to depend not only on how aftkv-- :random, of systematic selection. If the selectionran- it has contributed to a "successful" function; but arj dom, there would be a two-stage choice; first, whethir on whether, when it contributed, it was immediately or not to choose ,,f..gr, a function of x as opposed to . preceded by a particular operator (i.e.- two - term. choice of a.constaiii, such as 29.32; second, x or its sequences of operators may be the unit of analysisnot..... function would be (chosen Or the constant would be just single operators). In the multivariate case, adjust- Chosen , - . ment of selection probabilities could'apply not only to; (*raids but also to variables. The greatest utility of this approach would be:Where . the data are multivariate. In that case, not only values It- is clear that this entire methodcould be iterated. - of x (the variable to be predicted) could be used, but Once applied to a set of variables to generate a set of, also valnes of all other data variables. In any case, tiote; forecasts -about them, the entire procedure couhibe the time at which particular values pf.x art observed, repeated,. poi/diming an expanded lexicoriof.o&rators would always be an available variable. Thpi a possible taking into account the functions selected in the first, ->\two-operationfunctione-, would always be cycle and also now Ming adjusted probabilities 'of .drawing operators anthviiiibles inconstructing fungi -1' 21 + x tions. It, is anticipated that this proced'u're Would- in :o. where t stankforthe time (e.g., in years) at which x, is '' many instances converge. Wherethefigure'ofnierit for a: function's selection was erreiriCallY `based,; .e.g,, obierved. *- . depended' on actual successas a future,P,redictor, this, , Where the limit on thenuinber of operations was .would not be, a mathematical question; it would f itself . low,it wotitd, be poisible to consider every ,be empirical whether or not the sequence,of functions combination, The function earning the hest figure of to .be used to forecast the variables would converge. `iiierit in a given instance could then be selected. with reptatediteration of the function-seleCtion procc7.-- At this point, the method appeareto be..simply a dure with probabilities adjusted. slight generalization of the procedure of having the Note that this approach, in its essentials, follows the algorithm try several different, function families. Iris process whereby analytical procedures give rise to situ -, only a slight advance togikest that the function sp* ulatiqns. In effect, the prograincomes to"believe" in
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repeatedly useful operation combinations, and it shot Lord lieathingstoke in the wrist, and the proba: .-comes to "regard" as "simple". operation sequences bility thaf,llad he been so shot, Lord Heathingstoke that work. Note that since the sum-of the probabilities would have let himself bleed to death. of alternatives must total 1.00, the approach effectively decreases the probabilities of use in forecasting,efforts In forecasting, our problem is quite the otherway
of noncontributory operations and variables.- round. We hay' e data about certain antecedents in hand, and we are interested in their consqquences. We Since with each addition of a derived operator to the knimv, for example,. that' the butler intendsto kill the lexicon (a derived operator is simply a "successfulv Lord. We want to 1i-flow now what his chancesare of function) the chances of fitting the data improve,a succeeding,: say, tomorrow. procedure is needed analogous to a test of goodnesi of fit that would take into account something like the . "degrees of fteedom" available, when making the fit: 'The, poSSibilityof using Bayesian methOds in Otherwise, the procedure would tend to convergeto forecasting thus arises at 'oneremove from the actual . some more or less arbitrary complicated combination forecisting`task. They are used, )f at all,to estimate
of 'derived riperations,that happened to fit thedata unknown population_ Parameters to be used for fore--- perfectly. casting. For example, we may wish to estimatea sec-., oud- degree component of a polynonlial function fitted The very Monte Carlo nature of the. procedure to a past-data trend line.. This will then be extrapolated would naturally provide such a test by providing a set outPinto the future. in order to generate a desired fore-., of alternative fits to the same data. The obtained dis- ,casi. Given:the past data, and given the likelihoods of tribution of figures of merit for the alternative fitsto these data conditional on-different possible values of, the same data would provide a basis for statisticaltests theParkmeter,to be estimated (the second-degreecorn- of the probability that a new candidate congtituteda. portent), we attach a probability to each of the dif- genuine, nonchance improvement in fit. Tildeare very ferent possible values of the parameter. Typically,we deep statistical and mathematical puzzles associated would theniselecf the most likely. with developmentof a rigoious and highly efficienttest a. 6 of this .kind, but it would not be tooonerous to con- Classical estimation m ethods do not ordinarily struct simple-Minded ones, such as ones using Tsche- assigq probabilities or likelihoods to possible values of, bycheffs inequality, that would almost_ certainly Unknown parameters. Rather, they select for their esti- . suffice. mates those values of the unknown parameters that ops-, give rise,to _acceptable (often, maximum) likelihoods for the given data, regarding the data as products of. Bayesialicii Classical sampling from a popidat on whose parameters are ,,^P4. A point of some controversy in the 'contemporary those to be estimated. theory of statistical estimation has been the relaqe Apossiblyembarrassingweaknessof both merits of Bayesian and classical estimation methodolo- apptoaches.iS that the probabilities or.likelihoodsthat gies. This issue is somewhat less acute in connection are found to be "best" are often quite low. In the Baye- ' with forecasting because forecasting is not just another siari.approdch, this may be because there.is.m.vide estimation problem but is, rather, an extension of range of Rossible alternative parameter values; in the estimation: classical pproach, this may follow froma large Historically, Bayesian methods were developed with nurnbe of alternative possible data samples. particular reference to retroprediction. BaYes's.theo: hi either case, the. probabilities involved-are .best rem Provides a rule for calculating the probability ea thought of as figures of merit rather than as frequency particularantecedent,provided we know which con- ratios. The probability orliketilasod to be attached toa sequences have occurred and what their probabilities particular data sample depends criticallyon the statis- would be if the particsular antecedent did indeed occur. tical model that is used. A data simple simply is. Inone Thus, for example, we can conclude what the sense,its only true..probabilityis.1.00. ..But this progability is that tile butler ,killedLordHeathing- comment applies equally to Bayesian and classical stokesgiven that Lord Heathingstoke is dead, that he methods. It is brought into the discussionhere to call *was shot in the wrist, and that he bled to death from attention to the fact that the distinction between the that wound, and also given the probability that if the two methods is lesS profound than often appears, since butler sought to kill him he would have been successful both methods share. important, and questionable, in his endeavor, the probability that 'he would have common assumptions. . 1930; kY
key consideration is that, for any given seof data, are related to the past are likely to be more similar to:, if a Bayesian approach can be used to generateany par= the algorithms used for estimation of past - date,. tic ular set oiUnknown parameter estimates, there must parameters using claisical methods than tchhe cosres- always exist a corresponding classical method that ponding algorithms for Bayesianmetliods. Thuslhere would give exactly the same estimates, and vice versa. would be more opportunity foMavings and efficiency , The choice-between methods generally should depend, in high -speed computation. therefore, on the convenienceor naturalness of their application in a particular case; e.g., where a Bayesian More fundamentally, we tend to think of the future, app roach is preferred, it should generally be-because a as contingent on the past, and not the reverse. But classical model leading to the same estimate would. be Bayesian methods make our conception of the past 'more, complex or loaded with more ad hoc assump- depend on the data shadows the past casts forward. This is both a strength and a Wealeess of the Bayesian tions.- ,s " method. It is a-strength because it is in fact true that our Experience has shown that Bayesian models seem to only knowledge of the past (as well as the future) comes work betteri.e., generate more credible estimates from present data. The past is'as much-a hypothetical when external to the immediate data-gathering opera- construct as the future is. It is i weakness, because it '° riot'there- isasubstantial body of knoligedge leads us to think about the past as if it were a sort of concerning the relationship between-sample data and future, and this is not a comfortable way to think of fhe underlying population parameters. Although it isgen- past. erally possible to make use of such information usirfg classical methods, ,Bayesian, methods .seem to lend In sum, then, the chola between Bayesian and themselves more naturally to the exploitation of such classical methods seems less crucial in foreCasting than information. in other statistical realms. It is overshadowed by issues concerned with the inaccessibility of the ftiture. about "' *the other hand, classical,methods seem to lend which we forecast and the uncertainty of the rela-, theMielves most readily to application in those cases tionship of the past fothat inaccessible future. For the where alternative conceptualizations of the relation- purposes of the present study, it would seem best to s* between data and underlying population seem regard Bayesian and classical procedures as alterna- _equally credible. These considerations all must take tive approaches whose. relatiye merits should not be second place, however, in questions of forecasting to prejudged. fr consideration of the relationship between the past population (from which past data may be considered D ,istributed Lag or Markovian to have been drawn) and the future. Forecasting involves two,sources of 3incertainty: about the given Distributed lag forecasting procedures allow past_ data and about how the data relate to the future. (See events in a time series to influence future events over "Point or Interval.") several different time intervals. For example, the .events at time t5 may depend not only on the events at . 4 If either Bayesian or classical methods arc to be.used time 14, but also on the events at times t2, and t3. in an effort to deal with this issue, they catrOnly do so Autocovarance and autocorrelation models are of this , indirectly, with a heavy load of assumptions. For ex- type. The most important development of distrib- . ample, remote past data could beused to forecast more uted lag Models has been for 'transfer function recent past. data; and either classical or Bayesian applications. methods :could be used to, estimate parameters of a Markovian methods ..make the next step into the forecasting function so as to maximize forecasting future depend only on the immediate present. In effect, 'accuracy or utility. Either method could, in the limit, prediction is done by a function of a single variable simply assume a particular functionin effect; impose the present sae. However, since the present state may ° it on the data. In either case alley assumption would be be a variable in a phase space of any number of- that the relation of the future to theimmediate past dimenSions, there is a formal equivalence between the parallels the relation of the immediate past to the more class of distributed lag and Maritoviminoilels. All remote Past. The meaning of "parallels" would depend' characteristics of the past' can be, considered to'be on the forecasting model used; and here both methods implicit in the present. would haVconsiderabie flexibility. Thus tile.fundathental distinction is between those Thereisasubtle advantage for the 'classical models in which the path to.the present state is irrele- approach in that the algorithms whereby the forecasts vant and those models itt which it matters. When the
`20 egt Y4
path matters, a distributed lagfOrmulatidnisgenerally judgments by tl)e circumstances in which they c lisgree., preferable, even though a Markovian methodmay bet 7 Disagreements about the likelihood of future unprece- .formally possible. A Markovian formulation is pr'effrr dented, events of('en go with differences in the experts' able when there is no inertia, for instance, that tendsto overall scenaric?s for the future or with differences in make a trend line continue upward if it has beef their professional backgrounds, ii., kinds of expertise. of late. 17. It may be particularly relevant to analyze the kinds BoZ and Jenkins? .have deve4OPedageneral of algtiments that ,seem effective in leading to changes formulation in which the distinction between ,the dis- inexpert opinion. for emple, it'might be possible to tributed lag' ag Or Markovian approach is 'demonstrably a classify comments ma y experts invonnection with \ formal one. In most cases the choice should prpbably ,'their forecasts; suc classification could be used in be made on the basis of data available. For example, turn, to semi-automathe forecasting of possible \\ where human judgment Would- estimate more corn -` >inipacts, since comments that have been abservedto be,9 fOrtably transition probabilities among alternative peculiarly effective in influencing other judges could be , ,states of a system, a Markovian model is a natural way taken into account so as to anticipate the,results of ,
to extrapolate into the future. On the other hand,A furthar round of Delphi interaction among panelists. " where judgment would more readily estimate trend' - In other wordi, the beginnings of 4 theory of conver- lines or impacts or some other distributed lag data'. gence of Delphi judgments might be sought, making format, there is usually little point to converting the possible prediction of the final convergence values to data into a form suitable for Markoviad analysis. ," be expected from a Delphi panel, given the itritial judg- , Aparticularlyinterestingcasearises. when. ments and the reasons stilted for them..(See "Algorith- autoregre§sive methods reveal that the immediate past mic or Judgmental" for a discussion of how trend is less influential in determining the next step ina series, impact analysis uses human judgments to take into than are events at some distance in.the past. For exam= 'account unprecedented events.) ple, the same month last year may liemore predictive than last month this year. Such findings May strongly Cross-Impactin or Noncross- Impac$ing . favor a distributed lag model. A cross-imptinglorecasting pproactakes into ,... account the mutual' impacts of differen events or Considering ,UnprecedentedEventsor Not trends. A noncross-impacting, approach does not. Considering Mnprecedented.Events There are four kinds of cross impaCts that should be By aefmition,unprecedented events cannot be antic-distinguished: - ipated on the basis of past data. To the:extent that such 1. Time series or trends may interact.,Multiple covar- events are to be forecasted, or to the extent that such iance.methods are among the many methods used events impact upon other events or trends that are to be to deal with this kind of cross-impact. forecasted, recourse must be to something other than', 2. The prpbabilities of different unique eventsmay past data. That sofnething has been and will almost .. interact. For example, development ofsheap fusion 4; certainly -continue to be expert human judgment. It power may preclude the development of cheap may be argued that experts have no magical source df geothermal power. knowledge about such "unprecedented" events; they 3. Events may impact trends. Trend impact analysis must depend on past data, and their seeming abilitpeo (T14) takes this into account. make predictinns of such eventSimply meads..that the 4, Trends may affect the probabiliticifteveirts. events are not as.unprecedenkItas'they may appear to There are a variety o f ways in whichpis list may be .be.Therefore, one possible, ;section for further research directed toward improving forecasting tech- extended. Either trends or events thmselves may affect nology would be to look inta the basses used by experts each of these kinds of impacts. For example, in TIA the to forecast seemingly unprecedented events. magnitude of ariimpact of an event upon a trendmay ,. - . ,,...... be made to depend on the then-currint expected trend '1 One approach to such research would belo ask the value. Impacts may cross-impact.. yor example, the judges what data they consider,crucial to their impacts of different eventeontlhe samettrend linemay forecasts. It 'has been observed, however, that experts rarely be expected tar be additive. This is easiest tosee are often unabl; to make explicit all or much of what when the trend falls between natural limits, e.g., it isa enters into their judgments. Sometimes some ,light is percentage. Surely, then, no number oljositive thrown on the prOcesS by whickexperts make such impacts, may be expected to raise the forecast value , . <
above 100 percent; consequently, the joint effect of 2. Including in a general sense the effect of event tem- these impacts often is less than their sum. poralsequence. In addition, there may be any number of higher- ./ 1 -- order interactions among impactors or impacts. For Intrinsic -Process-RelatedForecasting example, two trends together may have a nonadditive Methods effect on a third. Temporal order effects glso may be . significant; which of two events occursiirst may be all- important in determining the impact on a third event Process-related forecasting methodi are .distin- guished from each, other; of course,: by the process . ordti.soine trend. .. $ used. _ 4. However,selectionisnecessary. inour Current multivariate methods lend themielves to tee enumeration. of these methods, since clearly any development.' of.sophisticatedtrendinteraction Dtpan activity may be claimed to bean ppropriate models. Models that take into account interactions precursor fbr a,forecast. We are restricted e to algo- gmotigeverlt Pibbabilities have encountered the diffi- rithmic or judgmental, simulation or anal tic, etc., culty that when such events are considered unique or techniques that share the common characteltitics of unprecedented Iteir probabilities must be estimated by being generally consistent with scientific method or, judgments rather than by computational algorithms. It more broadly, with the modern unmystical approach , seems- likely, though it is not strictly logically neces- to forecasting. Again( as noted above, we 'regard the sary, that the interactions among their probabilities various alternative process-related dichotomies as ..- alio roust bo estimated by human judges. ilis-leads, essentially indepgndent choices. Fo4 example, we can unfortunately, quite rapidly to a very large number of readily conceive of an algorithmic analytic interactive judgments. Where, there are .E events, there are unbrancling Monte Carla process. E(E - 1) impacts of one on another to consider: Thus, unless the number of events considered- is kept quite fOgorithmIc or Judgmental small, the number of interaction judgments needed , soon becomes onerous and finally becomes unfeasible. An algorithmic forecasting technique generates its \ Sometimes, this problem Can be dealt .with by forecast automatically, according to a set of operating .incomplete sampling schemes that assign to each of rulesa programthat in Einciple can be followed several judges only a portion of the necessary judgment by a computing machine, and often is. The operating rules constitute the forecasting algorithm. (As the term load. However, this calls fora number of more or less interchangeable judges, an unlikely condition where is used here, unlike some mathematical usage; an algo- rithm include necessarily high levels of expertise are called for. Alternatively, the may, a random, not judgmental task may be made 'easier, by reducing its reproducible,-step such as reference to a randoM information content. For example, judges may be number generating program or device.) By contrast, a asked merely to trichotomizeach of the E(E - 1) pos- judgmental forecasting technique depends on human input. For example, the forecast May be theaVerage of sible impacts-into negative, neutral {or null), anti poii- iiVe impacts. Presumably, this is less difficult for-the ,estimates providgdbY a number of eXpeti judgeS:***i fudges than estimating the magnitudes of the impacts. It should be noted that even algorithmic techniques Alternatively, the judges might be askalro select some ultimately descend from human judgments- -about the small number. of hightmagnitudeimpacts or only those, particular algorithm to be used. Moreover, judgment-, whose magnitude -*zeds some specified value. All arteqmiques usually rely. on,some computing alio:, these methods, however, still require the judge to con- rithm (such as calculatinean average) to.generate use- sider, at least implicitly,, each of the ,E(E - 1) posSible ful forecasts from raw producti of human, judgment. impacts. Sometimes a futther reduction can be This 'point is not trivial. It indicates that the distinction .. achieved by assuming thaethe impacts are symmetri- between algorithinic and! judgmental forecasting has. cal, i.e:, that the impact of event A on eventBis the only the most, remote bearing on choice' between same as-the impact of B on A so that only E(E - oig, human:and robot judgment; rather, thedistinct ion per-
impacteileed'bg,,considered.' . . tains to what kinds of human judgments will be'tised, Among significant problems remaining for ittackin and at what iitOintS in the fbrecait-generating'ploce this area are they will enter:The forecasting prOcesS shoUld be-Seen :. as one that requires certain tasks to be accoMplished1' I. Generalizing the solution higher-order impact At issue is which of these should ke left to humans and.
combinations. , which to.machines. .
1 One taskis the consideration of available data. due to the influence of unique events in the past that These niay be data about the very variables whose .uniquely perttirbed the trend. values areto be forecasted; Or they may be about other variables poss. ibiy related to them. All such data nee- The judgmental-algorithmic dichotomy can enter at essarily come from the past -or present. Humans do a Variety of levels in,e consideratidn of the state -of- the -art in forecasting. A forecAting procedure may be better than machines *hen the quantity of data is. either very small or very large. Machines can process algorithmic, for example, but the procedureor evalu- ating.itS accuracy may be judgmental. This is often the and concurrently manipulate- masses of information- that overload humans, who must resort to what, case when a time 'seriesis extrapolated using a amounts' to data sampling techniques. However, "canned" extrapplation package. Such packages gen- when the quantity of data exceeds machine storage erally generate a'variety of alternative extrapolations, capacity (presently large and rapidly growing larger), it depending on various algorithm options, such as the is,often difficult to program machines to select from degree of polynomial to used or whether mean error among available data asadroitly as do expert or mean'square error iso be Minimized. Often the humans. A comparable. problem rias- been noted in himitas,useis of such prgrams examine displais of_1 connectiod with attempts to program chess-playing alternative . extraPolati sand ,selectthemost computers. The game is in principle subject to a closed, "reasonable-looking." dearly, this procedure is only analytic solution, but the quantity. of data that must be marginally algorithmic, or objective. The computer's p oc d transcends the capacity of present machines.' function is essentially that of idea generator; it gener- T erefore, machines; like humans, Must "satisfice "3 ata variety of possible forecapts, and the human rather than optimize when they select a chess 'move. JU select from amongThem.Clearly, the greater the However, to do so, the machines, like humans, must nu r of forpc considered: the more the whole ignore .some available infOrmation while considering produre is judgme tal and the less it is algorithmic. other data, and here it has proven difficult to provide Urnfor'tunately;' whenthe"reasonableness"of mdchines with,the so-far unprogramable intuition that . forecasts, is the basis for the selection or ;ejection of a enables a chess master to selecwhefore he has thought forecasting procedure, the human juds who must through to the end, which .Iines of play to analyze fully decide whether particular forecasts are Asonable face and which to ignore. See also "Considering Unprece- a dilemma. On the one hand, an "unreasonable" fore- dented Events or Not Considering. Unprecedented castsis hecessarilyorecast that something will Events" for possible research to determine thesources- happen that the judges do not expect will happen. But of expert judgment. if forecasts,are rejected that predict somethih Another talk is choice among alternative forecasts. .7 unexpected, thenthe forecastingmet hod used can nev- Many. though.by no means all, forecasting procedures er teach to judges anything newand ichief use involve, at least implicitly, alternative forecasts amqng would see M to Ito-lend a coloration'of science to their which there must be a choice. When, the alternatives preconceptions.. stem from expljcit differences in algorithm, it is gener-. ally possible to apply the alternative algorithms to tlie On the'other hand, a foyecast can serve as a kind of generation of retrospective "forecasts" about data stimulus to the imaginatio'n of huMan judges that already available. Then a basis for choice among alter:prompts them to invent a scenario that makes the fore- natives may be We accuracy, with which the alternativecast probable. It thus can servea kind of psychologi- cal test of creativity that all to many "experts!" pass -forecasting algorithms "predict" whatisalready known. with high marks. Research on the validity of the Delphi process, for example, has shown that expert judges, Here, too, when thevqdantitysif information availa- given "forecasts" that are falsely stated to be the con- sensus of other experts (but really are deliberately ble exceeds the rathefsmdll amount that humans can c deflected off scale from the expert consensus), will handle, machines have a general advantage, unless the sometimes abandon their previous estimates (which quantity of information becomes so large that they are overwhelmed, and then humans' superior ability to actually were close to the group consensus) in favor of sample and select particularly relevant information the false donsensual" predictions.4 once more gives) them the.advantage. However, a fun- Considerations like the foregoing *were among damental efijection to evaluating a forecasting proce- many others that .cOntributed, to the development of dure in terms of its accuracy when used retrospectively the trend impact. analysis forecasting systenAby The is that this neglects the possibility that a poor fit may be Futures Groups, Indt, It was recognized that for the . .
23 (.. quantities of data mat typically available- foelrend their relevancto the "reasonableness" of the simula- extrapolation, computers do better than-humans in tion. Since si lations are multivariate, they also typi- generating' extrapolationS., It was also recognized, pally've more of a "feelings' for the process of emer- however, that humans do better in taking into account gene or evolution o u ure, over-timollansloes the impacts (see below) Of' possible unprecedented a simple univariate time series. Thus a simulation lead- events. Therefore, human judgments about the likeli- ing up to the particular future time of interest may gen- httedsfimpacts,hand impact time laglof events are per- erate an implicit scenario about how the futtire state mitted to modify the algorithmie,extrapolations. As may come to pass, and this may suggest important usually-uged, T1A deals only with possible future insighti about aspects of that future state that-would unprecedented events; howevera more consistent use nes° readily come to, mind if the forecast about the would-be also to take into account unprecedented past future state were obtained from an analytic model:. events. Their judged impacts could be subtracted reptospectively from historical trends before the trends Forecasting techniques /hat start off as analytical ate projected into the future. methods have a way of evolving into mulatioos if they survive the test of continued use:. This is a paint' about \.. the social anthropology of futuristics rather than its Simulation or Analytic , methodology, but itis nonetheless relevant in this context. I n,tile'sense used here, a simulation is a process that steps sequentially through a series of intermediate An analytical method that continpes,to bye Used states starting with an initial or boundary condition comes to be familiar to its users. Its computational state and terrinating with a final or predicted condi- steps, which may havl seemed abstruse and strange aik tion state., The intermediate states that intervene first, tend to become familiar and less puzzling. Since
between the initial and final states are taken to repre- the same computation generally can be performed in a -. \enr states of the systcm,uhder investigation thatoccur variety of ways, there is a tendency to try different in the (possikly zero) time between the initial state and aroangements of the computational steps, perhaps in the final state. The actual system is considered to pass ordeto reduce processing costs,' reduce rounding through corresponding states rn the same order. err, oreliminate the need for the intermediatestor- An analytic model also -may involvea series of agef data. If a particular computational step involves Computational stepi that intervene between the initia- a fo mula that is similar to one used in same other step or in some other modela formula that, may apply to tion of the-algorithm with the initial data and itsgener- ation of the final forecast, but the intermediate steps altogether different datathis tends to be noticed. are not thought .of as corresponding to intermediate ,Similarities are sought betWeen tije objects-of similar temporal states of the system under investigation. Thus computational operations. There is alsoa teniincy to the distinction between a simulation ancran analytic assign physical meaning to such computations..Thus, if model turns on the interpretability of intermediate an exponentially attenuating sine function is a compu- tational step in a particular steps in the process of deriving a final fareibst from ini- nalytical. forecasting tial input: if the intermediatesteps are interpreted as model, there isa strong tendency to think of this step as corresponding to 'phfsically realizable intermediate reflecting the attenuation of some sort of -periodic process. In this way, recurrent computational pattern,, states of the system under consideration,-the model is a tend to accrete the sorts of physical or theoretical inter-:4 simulation; if not, it'isnot. 1 pretationsthat gradually convert the analj, 'cal model' ConsIdering the relative merits of simulation and into a simulatiOn. analytic approaches is like consdering the relativemer- its of time-series orcros,s-section forecasting. A time, e distinction between simulation and analytic I models parallels'agamiliar distinction in the methodo- series forecast can be thought of as a limiting bf a logyofsocial simulation in Which the simulation is nearlys vacuous sciencethe 'distinctionbetween because 'only one characteristic of the systept hypothetical constructsarilintervening variables,As ,e is trackedthe time-series variable. Simulations charac- MacCorquedale and Meehl pointed outs a hypotheti- cal construct is an intervening variable,(or the yalue "tenstically. give rise to multivariate time series because_ several variables are dealt witheticurrently.- assigned to a particular computational, step) that is thdught Of as corresponding to some reality. Berg- When interes focuses on a particUlar future time, mann has argue s! quite cohvincingly-that it is redun- obtaining forkalts through simulation) about inter- dant to assume that an interiening,viriable is a hyfo..-9C' mediat)times may nevertheless bet A, by virtue of thetical construct, since it is rather the task pf the r, v. 24 35 ,- scientist to discover whether this is thecase for any and may represent various competing interests. If such a all variahlotA Seward has also pointed out that the util- gape is played over and over again, using, probably,': ity of =intervening variable and the desirability of its different teams of participants, a sat pf qwasi-M,ottes being regarded as a hypothetical constructstems large7 Carlo-method may be' possible, wherethe distribution, N. I ly from'the YeturrenCe of thesame computational pa - of results fronidifferent plays of the same game may be net of contexts.' m, belief in the realit ,;.,,used as the basis for estimation of future values that are of, say, the neutrino, s e erintl_Llicio considered to correspond to, say, averages, of the indi- re . . sponding computational form ina Variety ofier- idu me outcomes. ' . ent settings. Since.thething.keepi turning up in equa-- ,. . Sensitivityanal tions, one begins to sus No g idable mathematical obstac e really there. - losed-form soktion. n this case an interactiV,e approach may providea co6e- This process of coming to believe in the physical ' nient shbrttait. The user may try various changes in realizability of an analytic Model thus wouldappear to the parameters.oft. the different boundary variablesor be central to the process whereby scientific theories',predictor variables in order to deterMine how sensitive evolve or, more generally, the way that scientificRua- the resultant soltaorLis to the changes in their values. digms evolve.8 Surprisingly, I know of no effoll.to In this case, anyone forecasting run miy, in itself, be make explicit and more or less routine thisprocess, .ninteractiv,e, but a Succession ofruns tiling different although it seems to be the sort of process for WlircliTn Values for the boundary and predictor variablesmay algorithm could be developed. It sh. e. trld be possibleto continue an interactive unit for a hetiristiesensgivity enhance the state-of-the-art in forecasting methodOl-, determination. This approach is generally feasible for ogy by incorporating in certain forecasting algorithms any forecasting system, but the way the,Computational, a procedure for searching through a body of 9glifferent and 'procedural steiware set up may either favor or dis-, forecasting fprmulask develeg)ed for the relations courage it by, fox example, reducing the cost of the among various future varia (les and past data insorder repeated runs by saving the results ofcommon inter- -to aiscoVer.parallelbr isomorphic computational pat- mediate calthhations.. terns. Such parallels may be brought to the attention of -' - the program users, since they -may well suggest From a general standpoint, an interactive approach unguessed theoretical, and actual connections in the presumes that the der imay learn sOrnethintfrom an processes under study. lit addition, each frequently intermediate output that will lead himto Make a deci- occurring computational pattern can, in effect, be sion about 'fAher proceiiing that he wbuld not have. ma given its own name, so that it may thereafter becon-o e without the avaiiiability to him of that interme-: sideed a building 'block in the.development oryet ditoutput. Thus the conditions for the suitability of a , more'elaborate computational patterns. Thus algo- reactive as opposed to a noninteractive approach . p rithms can evolve from analytic to simulatioh models. III the condition for the suitability of time-series and simulation methods as opposed to cross-sectiona' They will do so in a way that should hasten thisseem- ingly desirable process and should, in addition, render and analytic methodi:_Nevertheless, it should Clear explicit the steps and assumptions involved: A first that th'esettreJogically independent characteristics lif d ,prediction system; we'may have cross-sectionalinter- , approach to thi?is 'discussed above, under "Function' Family Determining or Function Family Assuming." 'active simulations, time-series analytical noninterac- tive procedures,,etc!. I , 4 4x.71- . 0 ' ^ . Interactive or Nontntetactive Itis 'usefttlArrograming to provide a certain it minimum amount of interactive capability 'fóliessen-' An interactive procedurepermits a human,Operaior tially allprograms. At the very leaSkauser can be pro- ,. respond to intermediate output in such a way.as to vided 'with interrupt options that .enahPliim to abort influence the fi al output. A novinteractivipne does ani)Ob; hesh.Ould alio:he ableto intervene and change ' not. For exampthe proCedure may present itself to# 'values of system variables: In effects any major predic- human user as game, in whichte "competes" with tion run should give users the same sort of options that lecomter. Co utee outptit is respoticledlobg the are 'generally given users who are operating a program V user i such a y that he seeks,to optimize some '1' for debitggin4, purpdes, Where standard priigram . figurof merit. Such an approach is natural where the_ packages permit interruption, resetting of variables, forectingprocejure isa simulation of some social ' the displayof intermediate results,a step -by -'step trac- sysm which naturally involves competing elements. / ing of the flow of variable changes, anda retutn Co N. , re one or possibly several different human operators preset intermediate checkpoints. Atiow..1 " 25 86 .!
O
Ito Br eating or Unbranchipg the judgments of human operators inteacting with t e simulatiOn at appropriate' downstream poihts. Mo When a forecasting' Kocedure provides the oppor-' tunity for interaction within a single prediction "run," likely, the decision would be dissected into a series of as opposed to no interaction opportunity or opportu- decisions extending over a period of time: nity only between "runs," then each interaction point Monte Carlo or Closectlbrm ordinarilyconstitutes a point at which the flow of corn: . , . putational operations may branch, depending on input Whether or not the computational procedure is a from the human operator, judge. simulation or is analytical (in thesense that this disti ton was 'made in an earlier section), it may also be a A branching forecasting procedure is one that has the capacity to follow alternative computational Mpnte Carlo or a' closed-form procedure. A Monte z-----Larlo Procedure sequences, depending' on events. that occur in the.' generates a sample of outputs selected. toy somiorandomizing process from a population of e of a computational "run." Suctrevents need not possible involvp interactio an; the branch may utputs; then the actual predicted values con- stitute sample staistics of the generated sample.'For .depend on the value of some interme e t-a'------e-Ytainfik a future expected value ofa variable may be tionat result. For example, the procedure may, elect to estimated by genera in ample_oLpOssible future pool several different past-data trend lines into a single values and calculating the sample mean.7s.c.1Tdse-fOlhirr synthetic variable if certain criteria f6 their mutual procedure calculates the desired forecast . cohnearity are met. This, in turn, may convert a mul- tiNariate prediction problenfto'a univariate one. / Monte Carlo procedures tend to be associated with unbrancifing procedure does not have such a simulations, while closed fottns 'tend to be used for analytic, mile's. This is not logically or mathemati- capability. All decisions about the computational steps_ have to be made in advance of the "run," using whatev- cally necessary but is a consequence of the fact that k simulations tend to involve more complicated struc- er data are available and Interpretable at that time tures-of relations among the variables involved (and generally also involve more different variables) than do Of course:itisafactthat no sequence of, computations can ever add to the body of information analytical- models. Consequently, computation of cohtained in the raw data input to a forecasting pro-. desired results by closed-form .methods tends to be ret- gram. Thus, in principle, any decisioritthat need be atively fornkidable for simulationsand Monte Carlo made by branching somewhere downstream-1n the methods tend to be relied upon. operation of an algorithm could also be made at a sin- Generally, Monte Carlo method's are considerably, gle grand branchpoint at the headwaters or starting more cbstly in computational expense than are closed- point of the program. However, even when interaction form methods of dealing with the same forecasts,since with humans does not enter the picttlre, it is often p ?ef- Monte Carlo methods require many "runs" erable to use a branching algorithm than to use one in forecasting procedure_, eatgenerating one value for which all choices are made prior tcp./(1)1e start of the sample of values from lei h the sample statistic computation. will be computed. Often the co putatjon necessary for . . The issues involved here parallel those that involve a single one,,of the many Monte Carlo runs is of the ''use.of a deCision tree as opposed to a single-decision same order:of Magnitude of costliness as an entire. closed-form )olution.' , strategic model in the analysis of a mathematical game. N A single grand-Strategic decision at the start of the However, closed form solutiOns often call for much run" may overload the processing- rOf the sys- greater human time and effort, in deVeldping the teiti, be it human or machine capacity that is involved. computational algorithm. This extra cost, unlike the, Branching, me particularly desirable when a-extra'cost of Monte CIrloruns-ris-incurreclonly_offeee simulation is.involved, and the branches correspond to however. Therefore, choice between Monte Carlo and actual decision points as they are expected to arise in -Closed.formiapproachestol forecasting generally ago. on how often the pafticullir forecast will be.needed. theyealsituation. For example, it is not natural to say 1 that today we are deciding what sorts of fuel to use for More often,the more a closed form approachroah is aircraft ofthe year 2000; although the decision will favored. , - .....` . , , . . surely be made before that year arrives. A simulation A generally less important advantage of closed-form of the future of aircraft fuel technology would do well methods is that they provide precise values of thIqre- to make the. decision inside the,simulatibn depend on ---, casts, while Moye Carlo, methods give$bnly approxi- .
mate values, since they rely on sampling. However, retical status, -do serve to rank order forecasted events because the law of large numbers is one 'atticmore re- with respect to !Leh judged oXestimated probabilityor liable laws of nature and mathematic's, this consid- W ile there may be k questiod efation is generally a quibble, except forthe`-fare whether a fue event assigned,:likelihood ofy.20 is instance where peculiar distributionsare generated, truly ha as likely as one assigned 0.40, therecan be no such as the distribution of values of the tangent of question that the lower likelihood assignmentpoints to rectangularly distributed angles, where the reliabilities a judgment or estimation that the likelihood is lower. of expectancies do not improve,as sample size In short, the quantitative values. used in probabili increases. UnfortunatelY, when a model is sufficiently forecasting can more reasonably be said to bean order- complex, it may not be immediately obvious that- a preserving transformation or fUnction of the true prob- nonconvergeat4ase has been encountered. It is desira- abilities or likelihoods than theycan be said to equal ble, therefore, to include in t development of any them, Monte Carlo method a test of whether the results do converge as sample size increases. , It more than this can be said. The quantitative probabilities generated itjforecasting may also be Intrinsic Output-RelatedForecasting thought of as constituting a kind of quality rating of Methods the forecasts involved. It may be argued thatan apo- dictic assertion that a future event willoccur that is . Classificatign of methodsby kind of output conSti- :tee -! ...: ::': w; tutes the third and last basis for,distInguishingamong tic forecast has half the quiliiy ofan apbdictic asser- intrinsic forecasting methods. Weare concerned here, tion that a future event willoccur whose probabilistic not with the subject matt r of the outp. t, hut rather rating is 0.40.' with its form or format., includes t o Ature and . specificity,of qualifyin o quantifyingetail, such as Othilately, howeter, the matter hingeson the source whether the output babilistie o apodictic. In of the probability or likelihood values thatappear in addition, we include in this set of distinctions the probabilistic forecasts. If they represent the consensus ,notion of whether a single forecast is generatedor a set or. average among judges' guesses, then they are . of forecass and the sorts of timeand contingency 'Keynes's consensual probabilities or likelirolks, and it relations among the various forecasts whFnmore than may seriously be questioned whether they do indeed one is generated. predict frequency ratios. Here is a question that almost , dies' out for empirical study. What is needed is to col- Probabilistic or Apodictic . 10 a number of probabilistieforeopts,all of which share the same pi4battility level; e.g.; 0.50: Then, after. Probabilistic *forecastingassigns alikelihood, the 'forecast times, the proportion of the forecasts that cumulative probability, or conditional probabilityto proved accurate should be counted. If the probability the forecasted event or events. In apodictic forecasting, numbers in-the probabilistic forecastsacatfatelycor- thei,forecast is simply an assertion, without probabilis- respond to frequency ratios for various tic qualification. Clearly, probabilistic forecasting is els, then it would be justifiable to regard such probabil- preferable whepeer the probabilities or likelihoods ity numbers as probabilities,or at least good estimates generateldile reasonablloccurate. of rob abilities. , 4 Tilis is not an easy Condition to meet, if it is reqUired . that'the accuracy be demonstrable. Sincea given future -Harold Schiffman9 actually co*Ucted sucha`study, event eithei'occurs or does notoccur, it is notlinme- using the very extensive data that ate available for pari- diately obvlous how a probability other than 0.00or nlutuel horse -race Betting. He foind that the actual 1.00 can be assigned to it Perhaps it would be betterto proportion of horses for whodi the par -mutuel odds Teal' the "prhabilities" or. "likelihoods" assigned in were, say, 1:10 that actuallywon was, indeed,one in probabilisticforecasting "quasi- probabilities'` and eleven, and so on fOi all other odds. In other words, if "quasi-likelihoods." The term "quasi" is intended here the proportion of money abet on a horsewasp, then th 'to have no pejorative connotation whatsoever. horse did indeed have a probabilityp of winning. More precisely, the proportion of the Time thata horse on Thesequasi-probabilities and quasi-likelihoods, 'which a proportion p dtmoney was bet actuallywon whatever their interpretability as actual 'expected turned out to be p. He found that.this law appliedvery frequency .ratios or wtatever their measure-titeo- accurately.
27- '3 8 fit
. Point or Interval uncertainty is involved. When the uncertainty stems -from,unreliable past data, then clparly it will beof_little Point forecastintspecifies a single partic ular fore- avail to seek to improve the characterization of the' - casted value. Interval forecasting specifies an interval relationship between the future data and the given past within which the value is forecasted to fall. Point fore- and present data and, conversely, when the uncertainty casting is not infrequently apodictic;and interval fore- stems from a feeble" estimate of the relationship casting is almost always probabilistic. Often a proba-: between future and given data, it will be of little value bility distribution function is defined for the interval. A tb seek to improve the reliability of the predictor:, somewhat lower level of precision is involved in the variable values. In shorty-the accuracy of forecasting is case where aprobability is assigned to the forecasted no greater than the accuracy of the least accurate value falling in the interval. The latter characterizes chntributOr to the forecastingprocess, be it the histori- fiducial probability forecasting. cal dat. or the relation of the historical to the futureo , Tice language used in 'the foregoing paragraphis be predicted. borrowed from the language of statistical estimation It seems possible to develop forecasting algorithms theory. Statiitical theotists are familiar with the dis- that decompose the uncertainty of forecasts into sepa- tinction between point and interval estimation, with- rate components reflecting the unreliability ofithe his- fidueial estimation, arm so on. Forecasting can-be torical data andthe weakness of the dependence of the -N. thought, of as a generalization of estimation, in which -values to be predicted-onthe historical data. If point thenstimated value is not a paratbeterpra population estimates are used, then the commonly used standard from which a sample has been drawn, as in the stan- error of estimate colts:I-be' decomposed into the two dard estimation problem, but rather is a parameter of a components; if interval methods are used, then in addi- population in some way related to the population from tion to the interval reflecting/he composite of thIltwo which the data are`drawn. The forecasting task is thus components, an interval could be reported reflecting an extensible of theestimation task. In addition to esti- each component's separate contribution to-uncertainty mation of unknown population parameters, in fore-. of forecast. Where a probability distribution function casting it is necessary to determine the relation of the is defined .ovei the interval, the functiattbe sim- populatibn from which data are-drawn to the popula- ilarly decomosed. tion of interest. This is considered above under "Ba an dr Classical," univariateor Multivariate Th ointis generally relevant to forecasting:It is Multivariate techniques are both more sophisticated taloned here because it has special bearingon cer- and more costly than the corresponding uniyariate. ta n-com mon practices in interval estimatiob. In gen- methods:. In general, where a number of different vari- er the wider the interval that is estimated or forecast, ables are all strongly interrelated, it is preferalale to use less confidence is attached to Mt-responding poine multivariate methods. in .advance of.the forecasting mate or forecast that the predicted' value will be in effort in older to elucidate the interrelations among the iddle of ke interval or, more precisely, at the variables so as to reduce the number that need beealt interval cetitroid. wittrby taking advantage of their interrelations toe; ; . Interval width, in many common algorithms, is Select representative jones or to combine them to form determined by two factors.. the unreliability of the representative Composites. Techniques such as hierar- source data from which the interval estimate or fore- chical cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, and cast is derived and the unreliability of the relation factor analysis' are used,,,appropriately- to tills end. betweenthesourcedatapopulationandthe Th8e techniques are not equally poWerful. In general,. population about which the estimateor forecast is if cluster 4analysiS'Oroduces a.satisfactory reduction in mad Unfortunately, common tecliniques do notper- the number of variables; no otterwdata:leduction'tdth:. mitt user to distinguish between these,' twosources of nique is required; Siniilarlysuccessful data reduction uncert in ty in the resultenrfOrecast. 'For example, using multidimenSional Sealing will render faCtoratialf w ere ommon regression method are used, a low ysis unnecessary. rre ation coefficient may reflect either low reliability in the historical data or 'a weak relationship between these data and futufe values of the dependent variable. Time Series or Crossraectiori In practice, improving forecasting accuracy calls for Compare trnie-series foreOsting with estimation differeot, approaches, depending on whichsource of ,limited to a particular point in future time. Clearly,
28 w ?) A 3 9- 4 WY tile two appr4chesare limiting cases ona continuum However, a forecast that is Unreasonable that deals with the extentto which aparticalar point in for some.. timels of s+ or predpminant time other than theone which is directly of interest may -interest, as opposcito justifiably be rejected there beingia timerange ovet which different time on several grounds. It could, fora points have parity in interest. example., be rejected if there isno reason to believe that the forecast is pertinent onlyto the time of interest. Clearly, in general a forecastingprodureshouldbe so designed that.it caoimizes (or This principle is simply atextension of.the criterion satisficesoif need be) of goodness of fit to with respect to thevery time or. times for.which fore- past data. A "forecast" about known past data is used casts are desired and not forother tithes.Thus, if only a to determine whether alfore, single point in time is of cast about thrfuture be made according toa par- iffterest,then one wouldgener- ticular prediction formula, ally disregard times otherthan the time ofinterest. To Similarly, then, a forecast do otherwise would usually about some other futuretime, for whichsome other waste computational work goo.il basis for forecasting Or human effort. This assumes,of course' thatby con- may be,avaitable, may be sidering only thetime of used to select the predictionprocedure to be used fora interest, abetter forecastcan future time whose indices be generated for the time ofinterest.In general, this are less readily estimated. last prchiso is no obstacle to focusing on a single point In concept, it would be possibleto generalize the in time, since typically focecastinginvolves some kind forecasting algorithmso that any set of past or future of distributive or algorithmic effort with respect to the data points withany set of,weights could be usedhp various times for whiCh forecasts determine an extrapolation are made, so that a formula to be appliedto , procedure that makes forecastsfor more different any set of other data points, eitherpast or future, with* times generally does less Well fora particular time.. any weights. This very generalapproach would tran- scend and obViateconcern with the time-series 4There is a difficulty here, or however. Ordinal lily, there cross-section forecasting issue,except insofar as is no good way of assessing cross-., the accuracy of a forecast section forecasting involvesmultivariate as opposedto about an as-yetunobserved future eventor set of unival;iate forecasting. ,events.o This is what has motivatedreliance oh good, ness of fit to the past data oroV,reasonableness" of ComponentAggregatingor Component extrapolation. If alrthe past datahave equal bearing Distributing on all of thefuture, then there isno way that goodness' Cwmponent aggreg-Ai,ng of fit to Past data can be used forecasting techniques per- as a basis for differential , form operations directly emphasis on a particular future on some variable without- time. However,.if cer- 'consideringthe various -Arts of thatvariable. tain past values aremore related than others to thepar-. Component distributing ticular future time or times of techniques, on the other interest, then accuracy ,hand, generally develop forecaksfor the factors or-. with respect to goodness of fitfoc the particularly rele- components of some more geneal variable. vant past data can be given greater These weight. For ekam- forecasts are then combinedto prtoduce a forecast for -ple, events that occurat certain intervalsor the more general variable. connection with particular unite Several,factors enter into pait occurrel4v,.,theAeocisiOn on the degree ofdisaggregation necessary may be considered .more-'relevant.Thus 1;;Ive,-,7,1.11.196.-\s,,, , producetthe best forecast. Oneobvious consid- reyenue in'election years Would be particularly retit'ratil.`,eration is time. Morecomputer time and human effort to extrapdlation about advertisingrevenue-in a ftititre is usually involved in ;producing election year. disaiigregate'd than aggregated forecasts. This effOrtmay not be worth- while unless the forecasts ofthe disaggregateed parts of As an exampleof 'how sucha consideration may be the moogeneralvariableare also of importance to the incorporated into a forecastingmethodIstrend impact user kli that.case thCclecision may rest with the utility analysis permits givinggreater- weight to particular of the subforecasts comparedwith the extra effort and' -past data. A particular year may be designated for cost necessary to derive them. Thesame type of trade-, glaxinluriC'itmight; and the weightsgiven other past off exists 15-Wein the acctracyof the genera( variable years are reduced roughly as a reciprocal function of forecast axid the effort spenton the subforecasts. If t e the number ofyears they are from the maximum accuracy of that forecast can be sufficient 9rove weight year". As yet, the methoddoes nOipermit as by disiggregation, the,effortmay be well spent even much flexibility in weightinias might be desirable; for the subforecasts haveno other use. instance, it does not permitextra weights for events occurring every fouryears. Finally, the level of disagdegationmay depend ono the ability of theexperts who supply necessary 4. o
"41 judgmental inputs to the forecasting process to make mcfdifies itself on the basis of its experience as a system. meahingful..statements concerning the aggregated vari- It contains, in effect, an algorithm that enables it to able. A judge, for example, may be able to estimate the learn. This require; feedback to the forecasting system impact ofa certain new piece of legislation on the use of of the 'results of its operation. This, in turn, requires small private planes but may,not be able to estimate some way of assessing the utility or value of what the reliably its impacts on total air passenger miles in the system does or p oduces. Various kinds,of criteria may United States. In such instances it becomes imperative be used; imp rnt distinctions with respect to use or to, disaggfegate to at least, the highest level that can be OutputAte scussedbelowunder"Accuracy . meaningfully handled by:expert judges. Maximizing or Utility, Maximizing" and", "Forecast Oriented or Decision Oriented." -In addition, there Sometimes, for examplq in-a watch industry -sales may be criteria tpat do not depend on output; for forebastdevelOped.by The Futures Grbup, aggregated example, the system flay take into account how com- and distributed forecasts about the same data may be plex or time consuming its forecasting operations are used as mutual checks and to uncover contradictory, and modify Itself so as to forecast more simply or more assumptions about relations nmondcomponents add 'their trends. quickly. The complete science of fOrecasting may be thought ExtrinsicSystem-Related Forecasting of as a grand self-modifying system. To be useful, the Methods O distinction in this section, however, must pertain to an . automaticself-modification algorithm built into a When we distinguish among forecasting methods by forecasting system ki that the modifications take place, -extrinsic rather than intrinsic characteristics, we mean internal to the system's opiption, without dolling for to distinguish them' withrespectto of course fresh human judgments that deal directly with the characerist?es of the larger system in-which the fine- modifications themselves. Of course-,human judgment casting Method is used. It'ts convenient, further, to dis- must have been used somewhere upstream in the de- -tinguish between those cases where it is in terms of use velopment of the self-modification algorithm. that, we ,determine how we classify, the methoas. 414007e opposed to. some other aspect of .the systein. T.sy Recursive or Non-Recursive tem;.here, may be th9Cight of best in terms of a process flow chart that.would show how the information that A recursive forecasting system' routinely makes the forecastifig method prpcesses in order to generate forecasts about itself. That is, it forecasts its ewn, fore- forecasts inpves through the system. For example, in a casts, or it forecasts some other aspect of its opera- self-modifyipg method, the flow chart necessarily tions. That a system-may forecast its own forecasts is includesafeedbackloop,while withoutself- not just a play on words. eor example, suppose a .Modification capability, there is nd-such necessity. A regression algorithm is used to forecast future values of recursive capability is a (Ore subtlefoRm of lopping a historical trend. Suppose, also, thattheillistorical than occurs with self-modification. .As explained trend values Are themselves uncertain and subject to below, a recurlive,forecasting system makes forecasts repeated correction. A trend may be noted in the cor- about itsekf. This proVides 'a special opportunity for rections of tlie historical trend, and this trend may itself -- self-modification. However, again, we must caution bE extrapolayted, leading to aprecast of what the fore- that the two dichotomies, self-modifying vs. non-self- chsgenerated by theyegieSSion model will be some Modifying and recursive vs. non - recursive, are logi- time m the future, after further corrections have been callyindependent. For example, a nomecursivel made in the - historical data. If this forecast of the fore- method may be self-modifying hi some other way oar a cast is itself based on, use of the regressionalgorithm, recursive method may not make use of forecasts about then we have a recursive application of the algorithm*. its forecasts for purposes of; self-modification but for The capability to be used recursivelyisvery some other purpose, such _as to tharpen a particular important if) a system is to be-self-modifying (q.v., forecast being made on a particular single occasion. above), because an important way that a system may Note that a self-Modifying forecasting,syifem does not modify itself is by extrapolating a trend in linprover- merely modify/ its rather, it modifiet the ways merits. Therefore it is generally desirable that systems whereby it generates them. Aeh. _ automatically mont,Olianges in themselves so that trends in these changes may be 'noted. Note; also, that Self,Modifylno or Non -Self- Modifying another interesting possibilityis the use of one A self-modifying forecasting system automatically approach to forecasting to forecast trends M anOther, 10*. for example, an aperiodic trend toward increased choice among alternative forecasts or forecasting sys- reliance. on spectral as opposed to autoregressive tem is in terms of, their anticipated a curacy. When methods in periodic forecasting may be used to help forecasting isutility maximizing,the choice is in terms predict what periodic forecasting methods will be.pre- of the costs/ benefits of the decisions to be made on the 'ferred in the future. ' basis of the forecasts. . Since the relation' between decision and forecast is ExtrinsicUse-relatedForecastifig usually complex, the most accurate forecast in general Methodi- will not be the most useful. In particular, if decisions will change sharply when a critical level of some fore- casted:variable ,is reached, then clearly it is crucial to' Again, we have two independent dichotOmies. There develop a forecasting system that maximizes accuracy is considerable -customary association between the two. Decision- oriented systems are usually utility- in the critical. range, even at the expense of a general reduction in accuracy, averaging over all poasible-pre- maximizing, and forecast- oriented systems tend to be dielions (including ones notn the critical range), accuracy-maximizing, since this throws.into sharpest relief whether or not the system is taking into account 'Development of a utility-maximizing appioach the criteria most closely related. to its use: Nev- requires that the forecast users know at the time they ertheless, again, we caution that the association is not use the forecasting system just how their decisions will logically necessary. An accuracy-maximizing system relate to the possible forecast results. This is qten not might be decision-oriented; a utility-maximizing one the case. However, clearly it would in .nearlevery might be forecast-oriented, For example, we might instance be an instructive exerciseif users were hi've a utility-maximizing system that produces fore- required to think about the relation between possible casts that will have a wide variety of uses, say, because forecasts and the decisions they would then make. It is they are generated by a futures-oriented information possible to design interactive forecasting programs so system for storage in a large data bank of statements that they solicit such information (e.g.,In the form of about the future. Such statements might be used by designated cut-off or critical values)! from 'hie users, many different ,,users for many different purposes, Where this information is provided, the" programs Here, utility maximization would require So'me statisti- could then seek to maximize utility by maximizing, cal model of the distrikuiibn of user purposes. In such a accuracy where it is most critical. Where the informa- context, ,a, forecasVriented rather than decision- tion is.not available, the programs could proceed with oriented utility.maxiinizing system would be, quite the familiar accuracy-maximizing approach. natural. Utility maximization requires that the utility or Accuracy itaximizing or Utility Maximizing value of alternative futures be specified and compared. This requirenient is difficult to meet. Often, evaluating Forecasting is rarely an end in itself. Rather-Sit is the differences among the consequences of alternative usually a means to an end, and that end is typically a decisions calls for comparing apples and pears; high- CorreMecision, whose achievement is to be facilitated way plans and old age assistance programs. However, by the forecast. Note: The decision is nornially in' he the difficulty of stia a task is not agood basis for seek- present,at the time that the users or consumers of the ing to avoid facing up to it. It would (seem generally forecast receive or consider the fofecast, beneficial.for the development of futures research if . When a single forecast will have many'applioations forecasters were encouraged to ask theMselvesilow and how much fundamental sialtie presuppositions for many different decisions, it may makesense to eval- uate the forecast by its accuracy (insofar as thismaybe influence the utilities they assign to alternative possible estimated). Most often, however, this is not the best outcomes.
index of forecast quality. Sinceforecasting is rarely an . end in itself, the costs or benefits of a forecast rarely are ,for ecast Oriented or Decision Oriented intiligic to the 'forecast-Itself; rather,.theyusuallyare ` * Another a9d very-similar distinction is between -7.consequences of the decisions that hinge on the ..7`; recast-oriented and decision-oriented forecasting- forecast. , stems.Forecast-recast-oriented orientedsystems provide forecasts. This is an argum-ent for aUtility-maximizing, rather ec4ioti-orientedsystems ,provide, decisions. To than an accuracy- maximizing, approach to forecast- accomplish the latter it is necessary that the,systeni be ing. When forecasting is accuracy,maximizing,the instructed by the, user on the relation between the deci: sions that might be made and the forecasts that might, applicants generate moreor less routine responses to be generated.. a . their applications. It would be feasible, therefore,to Forecasted-orientedmethodsare Much more develop a 'deciiion-orientedprograthat constructed411'. an appropriate letter of acceptance or rejection in common than decision-orientedones.Dedision- respOnse to each possible configuration of application, oriented forecasting has been used incomputer- . data. . controlled real-time 9perations, suchas, the operation of a petrochemical plant, in which forecastsabout the Of course,.there is nothing in this discussionthat short-term future state of the systemgenerate decisions precludes display of bothforecast and recommended about computer-controlled operationparameters of decision: Since decision orientation, requiresinput the system. User; probably shOuld haveShe option to about the relatiEn between decision andprediction, a select any forsting approach either ina forecast= decision-oriented system would generall' be compati- oriented or in a decision-oriented mode. ble with a titility:inaximizingone, but the two dichoto- mies are nevertheless distinct since, for Another use of decision-oriented forecasting example, a would utility-maximizing system must also have available be where the same sorts.of decisions the are made over and cost/ benefits of the various possible decisionsin addi- over again on the basis of thesame sorts of forecasts. tion to information about how decisions For example, forecasts of rem," to success or failure of coll forecasts. .
FOOTNOTES
Each Jantsch, Technological Forecastingin Perspective (Paris: 5 K. MacCoiquodale and P. E. Msehl,"Ona Distinctjon Between Organisation for Economic Co-operation AdDevelopment, 1967); James R. Bright (ed.), Technological Forecasting Hypothetical Constructs and Intervening Variables,"Psychological-, for Industry and .Review, Vol. 55 (1948), pp. 95-107. CoPernment: Methods and Applications(Englewood Cliffs. N.J.: PrenticHall. 1968); Robert U. Ayres,. TechnologicalForecasting, 6 G. Bergmann, "Theoretical Psychology," Annual Reviewof and Long -Range Planning, (Nei,/ --York: McGrawHill, 1969) and .Psychology, Vol: 4 (1953), pp. 435-458. Joseph P. Martino, Technological ForIcasting for 'Decisionittaking 7 J. 'P. Seward, Psychological Review, "The Consistency (New York: American Elsevier, 1972). of the I- V; Critiqueof Intervening Variables," -Vol. 62 (1955),pp. 155-168. 2-4. E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins, Time SeriesAnalysu (San Francisco, Carif.rNolden-Day, 1970). s Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions,2ttd. ed. (Chicago, Ill., University of Chicago Press, 1970). .3 H. A. Simon, Administrative Behavior, 2nded. (New York: The Free Press, 1957), p. xxv. 9 H. Schiffman, Successive Interval Scaling of Moneyat the Rice Track. Research Memorandum 4 M. Scheibe, M. Skutsch, and J. Schafer,"Exieriments inDelphi 63.8 (Princeton, N.J.: Educational Methodology," in H. A. Linstene and M. Turoff(eds.), The Delphi Testing Service, 1963). Method: Techniques and Applications (Reading, Mass.: Addison- Au attempt to accomplish this objective is presented inChap.3. Wesley Publishing Co., 1975), p. 270.
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, 43 4*. , : Chapter 3 Validity of Forecasting Systems
Herbert Gerjuoy ,
The story is told that once upon a time a chicken- the forecasting error, and if the error valuesiso packing company was haVing trouble with its frozen, obtained are all mplially comparable, i.e., fall otythe chicken production process. For some reason, rather same.(not necessarily unidimensional) scale, then the than seek help from the appropriate refrigeration engi- s)4tem's lack of validity (Invalidity") -and-conse- neers or processing specialists, they biought in as a quently its validity can be measured, i.e., quantified. In consultant a physicist whose specialty Was thermody- practice we usually meet these requirements by using namics, He listened to their problems 'And shOok his the same scale (dimensions and units) for forecasting head it all seemed so simple. Confidently, he strode to thit we use-to measure the actual situation. Asa result, a blackboard and said: "First, assume that a chicken is the magnitude of the discrepancy between a.forecast 9 a perfectly spherical ball.. Then filowedan hour ° and the actual situation can be obtained by subtraction and a half of moderately high mathetri, t}cs, ronwhich grits multidimensional, e.g.; Pythagorean, equivalent. he charged dmoderatefy high consulqg:fee. Far example, forecasts may be ofteyear of man's first Of course, the falsity of an assutriptiO does Mat nec- landing on:the moon and the seale used may be time essarily render invalid the conclusioniitiat depend on measured in years. The absolute values:of the diffe ten- it.A, false assumption may be benj rather than ces between the forica' sted years and the' actual year malignant: it may facilitate important: orrect Conclu- than may be used. to m asure theinvalidity and hence the-validity of the foresti sions,while thd wrong conclusions it leads to may be stem. _. unimportant. We all know thay chickeriS pack more densely than spherical chickens because real Any measure of the degree o orrespondence chickens, are cubical, but perhaps the importan?", Between foreCast and actual values ringho. A natural aspects of chicken freezing are largely unaffected by one is h p *kn, Roco, how they pack. However, when we suspect that an bqween. predictions, P, and actual observations, 0. This measure takes into account psissible arbitrariness assumption is false. this should certainly aleft us to its in *utlits of measurement, In effect, it sets the unit of impact on conclusions Ve Care about. measurement of the forecast values equal to their stan- I am not a physicist. The.problem addressed in the dard deviation (toot mean square about the mean or present ,paper includes Chicken processing only as a .average) and the unit of measurement of the observed very special case. The_ Mathematics I shall use will be - values, similarly, as their standard deviation. Moderately law, not high. Neverthelesi, watch the assumptions. 1 suspect that some of them are equival- WienfOre9Isting systeLn validityis measured ent to assuming that chickens ate spherical. directly, it :is necessary to wait until, the forecasted events occur. Such assessment of thelyalidityzof a fore- This chapter presents three approaches to estimating the validity of a forecasting syitem. The 'first uses casting system works only whin there has been tong-.,.... term experience with it and when it has retrained the reliability to set on upper limit to validity. The second same over the period of experience, solhat the validity estimates validity of lorivailg e forecasts by extrapola- tion froin.-the validity of.ihort-rangeforecasrs. The of the kreeoisting system in the more distant past for forecasts about thiTeeentpast and presentmay esti third redefines walidity to make it directly measurable. male fairly the validity, of the systeni..ioday. So-called "Validity",,, here means average, overall,,or typical scientific forecasting is so new and forecasting systems accuraoy. A valid forecasti system, is an accurate arein,such_ flux that it is rarely; if ever, possible or use- o one. (Note.that yalidity Ts defined as a-property, of a fulfo estimate validity directly. We must rely instead, forecasting §ystern, not Of an individual forecast.) if for on indirect estimates that enable,n; to estimatea fore- each forecast generated by a forecastines'ystem is casting system'svaliditYith respect to forecasts about possible io measure the (possibly zero) magnitude of What, is still the future. A nice trick; if it can. bedotte.
o Ai . 33
4 4 . '1/4, o Mt05.- . A quantified validity is not necessarily better 4. or ,r:would be perfectly reliable. It would alwaysbevrodg, more valid than one thats not quantified, nor is a pre- however, because February 30, 1973can never come diction system whose validity is easily quantifiednec- again. (The use of Febeuary 30,1973 in the illustration essarily better or more valid than one whose validity is exemplifies the kind of thin king,used\in thispaper, and measured less readilY.4 However, validitymeasures or the strengths and weaknesseg of this kind of thinking 'estimates do' provideone more thingto conjure with, should be noted.) and they may be useful or imprzssiye. Wecan, for ex- ' aril*. use validity indices ,to corrfpare forecasting Thus, a perfectly reliable forecasting systemmay be systems. and this comparison may be useful ifwe perfectly invalid, or it may be perfectly valid;or any- remember to take into account differences'in how their where in between 'However, a perfectly unreliable forecasting system must be perfectly invalid. validities were' calculated, how or how much their - . validities are valued, and how expensiVe theyare. Sim: For psychologists and others interested in testing, ilar considerations apply to assessment of possible Harold Gulliksen some25 years ago rather elegantly changesain.a forecasting system. mathematized a formal system whose key application Validity is hardly ever an end in itself;rather, is to the study and measurement of reliabilityand validity is desirable only because the.moreaccurate a validity." Quite independently, usingvery different and forecast is, the more likely it is that decisions basedoil much more formidable mathematics, the information the forecast will have a favorable ratio of benefitsto. theorists have developed a parallel formalsystem. costs7 This sifggests. for example, that & less expensive Gulliksen, writing about mental tests, speaks ofa test and less valid forecasting systemmay be preferable to a score that may be partitioned into its valid or true com- more expensive and m5re accurate onewhen the ponent and its invalid or error component. In informa-. greater accuracy does not lead to sufficient tion theory analysis of signal detection and message improvement" in decision benefitsor reduction in transmission, a message is comparably partitioned into decision costs to payfor the added expense. signal plus noise. The information theory approach.usesmore power- An Upper Limit to Validity May Be ful mathematics and is better tied in with the-broad body of scientific knowledge. For example, noiseis Estimated from an Estimate of Reliability related to entropy, a key notion in thermodynamics. . . But test Aory has the kind of modest mathematicsl' A companion term to validity is tenability. "Relia- prefer to use when it suffices. Note,_bytheway, that not bility" means consistency. If a system alwaysgenerates every important corresponding theorett has been the same forecast given the same data, then it isper- derived in the two systems, and so',at leasttwo eminent. fectiyjeliable. But systems that call for humaniudg- careers are possible.for a clever translator.' -meits or random comps tational steps (e.g., Manic learlo processes) typically generate different, alterna- Where there is a single signal; message,or forecast, tive forecasts in different "runs" usin thesame data to answer the same question about the utire. Such alter-alter- X=T+e,, native forecasts will lie-termed,"pa alter below,. , . where Xis obtained score, Tis truescore, and eisir.or. like validity, reliability can often be quantified,and .under- essentially the same bonditions: when When there is a single true score (a single signal,a parallel single future event to be forecasted), forecasts cambe compared.quantitatively, i.e., whenwe can assign magnitude values to the differences among . sk = (iimis(k 3)2),. (2) parallel foredasts. ., '..,, in .Reliability; or rather unreliability, sets theupper . limit for validity. However, validitymay fall anywhere where si is the yariance of the obtained scores, Nis) belo'w, that limit. A perfectly reliableforecasting number of ,obtained scores, E isthe summation _system one that always gives the same forecastmay operator, Ad X is the mean of the X korts. be completely invalid.An example would hsie.., In the forinula for sX, each Of the discrepancies,e, ""ptediction -of the date ofa future event by random between forecast and actualitf may bethought ofas ,selection from a set of dates in an Old calenar--- bUt a havirig- independent components: first, a constaat, very small set, containing only one date, February 30, s component, which would be reflected by the aver'. 1973. The foreoast would ,always be the sane, . so it age Icasting error over a long run of forecasts;sec- .. . .c. . . . 34 .45 ". ond, a variable component (to be identified below with Herne, a new nonvacuous assumption surfaces:e unreliability)'whclse long-run averagevalue correlates zero withT. This is a very powerful. approaches zero. assumption. It rules out the *possibility, for exam- ple, that very large future increases in the value of an Itis*assumed that no bias afttsfl the scores (forecasting ystem), i.e., X converges to T as N indicator may tend to be undeiestimated in forecast- ing, perhaps because of foreCaster timidity, or perhaps becomes larger kid larger, so that the meanecon= verges to zero. This assumption requires a moment of because of forecaster social perceptiveness about what -comment and trepidation. A 'verbal trick ought poi a forecast user will.accept. lead us to d isregardlhe real likelihood of bias. Psychol- We are more interested, however, in a system that ogist test theorisrhave generally gotten away with forecastsasetof events. ' such verbal ploys as "intelligence is'what intelligence _Wow, sr is no longer in,gend.al zero. tests measure" because there is rarely' any way to, observe directly the true scores that their. obtained sk=4s:2cov(T,e). ( ) scores seek to estimate. Sine they rarely have to face.'7 the -reality. of bias; they can generIlly forget about it. - With the assumption,r Te =0,' This suggests that we can more comfortably neglect, Sx_ - sT2 + se2 biasin long-term foreptsting than in 'short-term (7), forecasting. we can then defne validity as r,.7-,the correlation Note, further, that the nature of the model makes between X andT. any bias an additive constant, so that bias canno(affectc' differences in the reliability of alternative forecasting systems, but only affects the baseline about which their = Ecov(X,T)Isx (8) forecasts vary. In a nycase, if it is assumed that there is no'bias: then we replace X with T, whenever N-is reasonably large. - . _ For convenience (this isnotan assumption %rah teal. cov(X,T) = (1/N[E(X.-50(T 71")] Meaning; it is aconvention) weassume that the mew uring scale used for X and rims its zero point a = (1/n)[E(XT)] , . (9) Then,
4= (1/1*I)[E(XT)2] . using the convention that T = 0, aritrthe assumption that X = T. = (1/N)1E(10], - (3)
But, by equation (I), E1XT)= [T +e )11 = E (T2) + E (eT) .(10)
sk,-1(11N)[E(T + ] = E (T2;)- (1i)
=OINHE(T2 +2Te +es)] using the'assumption thateand Thave no linear rela- = sT+ 2cov(T,e) + se ,. (4) tionship. Therefore,
cov(X,T)'= -(12) where cov(a,b) is the covarianEe of a and b. By assump- tion, si is zero. Therefoie, when only a single;fore- casted event isnvolved, and
Sx2 Se2 . -rte . =4sxsT = sT Isx *Oa
Aot, !. '4 1. The,most immediate problem with.this nide formula Biit, then for rxr is.that's T is no more available than thf Tscores are: However, there is a relationship between reliability . '08) and validity that cah Co estimate r xr.' rXT (rXi.X2)1/2' By analogy with the- definition of xalidity as rxr, we can define reliability as rx;x2, where X, and Xiare al- This approach really only gives a maximum value ternative forecast sets generated by the same forecast- for r AT, because what has been done here .has ing system. For example, where judges are Used, we been to`do formally and in detail what.was stated in may regard rxix2 as the correlation between judgments words above when it was noted that reliability sets an by different judges. There are two kinds of correlation . upperlimit to validity: However, since we have pointed that have to be distinguished here. One it the Correia-Ay toward ways of estimating'the reliability (by looking at tion between judgments by two different judges, each agreements among judges, for example), we do have making judgments about a number of different e4Ms. some basis now for judging the validity of a forecasting The other is the correlation between judgments about system withbut waiting. . each of two different events_by_anumber of different judges. These two correlations in general will be the same-only if we regard all judges' j m n s'as muttfailryValidity May Be Estimated by ally interchangeable, i.e., dra randomly from the Extrapolating Trends in Validity same population of judges (or;similarly,fif4ve view the:-.Estimates different events as mutually interchangeable). For:- Another approadi to estimating the \validity of a malty, the Model simply requiresza source of data for . - r and if there is more than one source we simply run forecasting system may be based on the method brat the risk of more than one conclusion. That can be an has been used to investigate the personality character- 141.k advantage, by providing a basii for estimating whether s, of individuals wh successfullycommit suicide. If judges (pr events) are, in fact, interchangeable. Thus', is not easy to administer personality tests toSuch 1307 sons after they have killed-themselves. What has beeilw '4- . ' done, insteadfli ben to study the ersonality eliarac-4 rx1x2 =[c°011)]sxtsx2. (14). teristics of persons whowere unsuccessful int their , "' attempts to cqmmit suicide, and look'look' for trends .! ; these-characteristics depending on how closetheindi- ....; ,,;',vidual came to succeeding. The characteriSticSbfcsuc- . ,cessful suidideS are then found by extrapolating inoi- . .!, .;,?..... (1/N)[E(XIX2)], - - trends. I .--.- .,,i."., )cov(XJ,X2) = ,
; . . Similacry'`we m* estimate:thenot:directly:- = (1/N)[E(T + eiXT + e2)]; - . . obtainable validities of long-range forecasting,systemi. by noting trends in n , , _ . , . We May Redefine Iyaildity Sc::.: ThatThat it, . Pertains-to-ForecastUtill*,N0fA.401M4'. assuming, again, that e is lincorrela(:with T, ,and . . assuming now for the first time that fiii'tincorrelated1 . . . with el. Finally', we may cut the Gordian.*Ict-0.60Lr no :., slug, after all, is'usually done ay- inearkto,inifd*ther With Xtand X2 interchangeable,. than as, an end in itself, exceptforthepresuinabiY small ,- band of futurists who see forecastifigUs.syabstract * form. This mayibe.Clarified.bycohtrastingthe,itat*of:', (.16) the future, for ftif itiri*wit li the status -of thetiait1"or,,:, historjos,historians, or.t1*stItus of,the mind fOr,:psychologist., and .° The ',futurist 'cinnbt vie* :the .finurel directly*: -But .... , f -,.', ' . , ..rots-...,.;,.. neither can'thelistorian directly view the:Oast; nor can, rx1)4 .(17) slisk _ . , the.psy_chologist,directly view the. mind. The:histoanvn . . , -:,:, .,.'36- - . . _ . uses the notion of "the past" to help organiwnd direct destroyed!" But Nineveh repents, and the city, is no`t his professional activities, which necessarily always destroyed. Was Jonah thereforeIncompetent?.No. He take, place in the present. Thus, hitdry may be consid- Provideda very useftd forecast, for it had the desired- ered an empirical. science. The historian may, forex- effect upon the usersthe. Llers and people of 1 ample, use_his ideas'about the past to predict that in 68 Nineveh. short-range future, iflve dig in a particular.place,'we will find the body of a particular Roman. Similarly, the Since the validity of a foFcasting system, defined as psychologist may use notions about what unobserya-' its accuracy, as has been shown above,cannOilidefrieaw., ble processes are going on inside another person to sured directly and indirect approaches seem likely to make predictions about, thatperson's observable give only very gross estimates, and since it may be behavior. The utility of the.past for the historian is:that argued that the accuracy of a 'forecasting systetn is , the notion helps him better to predict. Similarly, the much less impo'rtant than its influence on the users of notion of the mind helps the psychologist. the forecasts it generates, it may bp suggested that the definition of forecast-system validity be changed to Obviously, futurists do not use the nftio1/4 of the reflect the utility of the forecasts generated rather than future simply to help improve their prediptions. On, their accuracy. This may be done while'retaining the occasion, of course, this is'the case: A jtidg.ittent about general definition of validity as the ckelation of the the nature of the long-range future may be iced to help fOrecast with its criterion by redefining the criterion. . -generate a short-range forecast. More fundamentally, The criterion need not be'based On the futhre event that futurises use the notion of the3future to help generate is forecaited. Rather, it may be based on the response forecasts that are useful for thOse who consume those . , ofthe user of the forecast. forecasts. .s- . Futurists provide forecasts that are used byIndivid- We may imagine the following. When a futurist uals and organizations M decisionmaking. Therefore, makes a forecast professioriall,,he is' required by. the it may be argued that the utility of a forecast is deter- code of ethics of his prOfession to place in a sealed mined by how fivorably it affects the demurs made envelope the anticipated, of ct of the forecast, on the by the forecast user. This approach makes it possible anticipated user. This, of co rse, is itself a prediction. fqr a wholly inaccurate forecast to he a very good fore- It is the accuracy.of tilts iction that is used io assess cast: For example, Jonah says, "Nineveh will'be the validity of the-forecast.- :" 41/4 f ' FOOTNIOTESN' / ', , -^-'t- H. Gulliksen. TheoryofMental Tests (New York. Wiley, 1950). fr 2- E4..E M. Reza. An Introduction to llormation Theory (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1961). - , .. vr Chapter 4 go, The Nature of Unforeseen Developments Theodore I. Gordon '-'Introduction .rlo abnormal chrornosoes;° discovery, of pulsars; discovery thats.tbe rotation ofVenus is in :Picture yourself p 'Years froinnow, after a satisfying ,resonance with the Earth;confirmation career in futures research, checking back of continental . on the.. drift; and thelYnthesis ofenzymes. forecasts you and others made in thelast few decades. The array of scientific, technological,economic, The nature of Suclf unforeseendevelopments, not . Societe, and politicalevents and trends would be very only in science butin other fielps well, isthe subject large 'indeed. Many of the forecasteddevelopments of this chapter. Cap the nature of suchdevelopments _ would certainly have occurred,and from this you-. be described a priori, in generalterms at least? Can would draw sonic professionalsatisfaction (especially methods be invented tereduce their number?Can if thewere 'desirable); others originally expected planning'respond to- unprecedented events? I am' dungthe intervalyou are examining Wotild not have indebted to Niticifl and Turotriorpointing out a occurred, and this would.causeAto search for parable of Carl Sandburg's whichseems appropriate to this line of inqUiry:2' reasons for the incorrect forecat. ut despite, the richness of the forecasts, inevitablyyou wouldfind that ,' some of the really importantderlopmentsof the last The white man drew a small circle inthe sand and few decades werendt representedat all in the forecasts'. told the red man: IThis is what the Indian knoWs," and drawing-, a'. big circle around the sniarOne, For example, the 11AND' long -range forecasting "This is what theWhite-man knows." The Indian study, condutted using the ,Delphimethod,in 1964, took the stick and swept an immense ring around' includedaforecast of important scientific both circles. `gins is where the whiteman andthe breakthroughs expected in thenext 30 years or so.' red man know nothing." About two-thirds of the eyepts forecastedto occur by, 1970: had- actually occurred by thin. But More This chaptefpreients a firit, tentative exploration' importantly, perhaps, of many. scientific breakthroughs the space between whatwe think we know andithe had occurred which were not included-inthe original,,outer boundary, defined bY that, immense 'forecistt The yearbooksof .theEncyclopedia Americana, the New- YorkTimes Index, and other '"-; sources were, consulted to ;R0,9a 1ist of significant Some Definitions scientifieldevelopments' of abOnt the . same level. -of generality as jtems included by theoriginal: pep' An unforseen crey opment is.,an event which. in, hi littIFY:SV," respondents. retrospect is seen to havebeen important but , The list of omissionsincludes4td. discovery which has. . , of ,quasars; growth of holography;_applications of been onutteckfrona,:for.ecasts., lasers to industry alid medieine; meiiitireinent of the .,-Therelativenumber of unforeseen developmeritili big; bang site temperature; the moonakeisurfaci a of ..7.,zitittetion" df,the timehetween Ma* effeciiVe use of hybridseeds the, present and ; =the by many develo-ping forecast horizon .As. the forecasttime.; horizon countries; establishment of cig,arettetcancerrelation- approaches thepiesent, information-on . ship; theoretical* identification of whichto base; faster=than-light, forecasts imj3r ;ye?, forecast- accuracy particle; syntheiis of DNA; the linking iMprOyes, and of crimiiiar. the' relative umber of ugoreseendeVelriprnents,,, . . . ' al fi* . diminishes. This'Observation is probably true even for to Mill, who justified belief in universal causatidn by8, "random" events'. For example, a lightning bolt, tracking it back to an ultimate causation., &fore-it strikes, is manifested by the buildup of a static charge; terrestrial strains probably can be .associated But many philosophers deny the validity of universal with earthquakes; whether or not the bullet will hit the causality. litune found cause onlya fiction of the mind. 'target can change from a problem in statistics to Bergson believes that ultimate reality is not bound to ballistics atter the bullet is'fired. eXact causal sequences; soine elements of growth are uncaused and; he holds, Ihereforeare unpredictable. While it is probably true that almost all unforeseen The point of yiew accepted in this paper.is that. cause events can be forecastedi-iniiii4rdiately before they and effect relationships exist most Of the time but, Occur, the protblem is to accomplish the foredast in time occasionally, spontaneous uncaused events emerge. * s)for action. Suppose that a roan built an electric charge detector that could forecast the stroke of a lightning ,- bolt. If its warning time were only a second, evasive Extraolation in Forecasting 4e action would pot be possible and, depsite being . - "foreseen," the forecast of lightning would be useless. MosforecastiCI developments consist of statements :Therefore, moving this forecast from the "unforeseen" aboutture conditioni which'grow out of historical to the "foreseen" had little practical value., and ctemporary ' activities.For example,.Most There appeat to be at least two types of unforeseen ..forecas of scientific achievements anticipate, the' developments: we call them extrapolative and mutant. enceof researchin progress or planged researc AnextrapolatiVe unforeseen developmentiseorte which ; economic forecasts deal with the momentum conceptUally could have been forecasted given ade- of econmic change, and technOlogical forecasts relge quatehistoricaldata,expertise, or appropriate to- the aptation, peifection, or diffusion of existing or emene capabilities. simulation tnOdels. Ott the other hand, amutant qnforeseen cfievelopinentis pne which could not have InarealSense, the most forecasts are ex- 4. been forecaS,,ted; history simply Weld no clues touts trapblaans.. be they rived . from extensions of emergence;simulationModels,nomatter how historicaltrends,e ertopinion,or simulation ingenious,would nothavehintek atthese models. ,Sone forecaSting techniques are clearly developments. Such developments are disc4tintlities, labeled as extrapolative procedures. FOt example, if breaks With the past. To put it in- other tel ost time- series. data, are obtained about these various._ developments are steps ifi long chains of.casual t, and43technological or societal measures (such as peak . conceptually, at least, future events, in thejftet can he r #ircraft speed, popgjation density in urbancores, life Inferred from past vectors of change, ffut it 'thee, ekpeciancy,, or engine efficiency), imeellstscan be Vik developments occuryihich,are not o unantieipa produced by extending the historical .trends into tile, . bat which could not have been ant ,Thes ate..fueure.using well-knoWlt curve- fitting approache.s._Bitt y A.,. mutant.I ' most other.torecasting. (licit 'qUes have strong ex- traPolatiYefelelnentwor are, letely ex trapolative as The purpose of thiS chapter is.to begin expl re the' . well! . ... nature of the unknowable, the unexp te - ..- d, and the__ a . * unprecedentedconcepts which hinge on the nature of., To.be. somewhat more scA; supposea group of causality= andwhat linksone kind of development to executivesisinterattinthroligh Delphi and ad- another. . dressing a subject is asly, external.political` changei lirely to affe t theii corporation:They would , almost certainlWistc wges edirently in existence, at CausallIN leastin embrydnic% and debate'ltheir future. course.It. would6 nreasoilablee to expect the Iwe have enough knowledge of present and past executives through .any proceWtO invent tomorrow's evtS, will We, in concept at leait, be able toispesify analog of consumedsm or antitrust; they would.merely, 'fut re events? Are all events rooted in sonirantecedent carry such current trends tocoDelusions that seemed events? IS the cause of every" event a preceding event reasonable ida Themvat the .titne. An econometrician a 'WithoutWhich.the. eventin question would not .have attenipting to describe th'e relationship between energy occurred?Many philosophers have argued the point; availability.anclunoplayment would pr9baklyutilize ; from Aristotle, who astumed that causes produce, linear programing): multiple regression, or input- effects( to Descartes, who called 'cause substance; and otftput techniqUes to formulate his 'model; all: would t ' 54650') 39 Th relytq a greater orlesserextent on the past 1. A development recognized as 'prospective* impor- relationships among the variables. Econometricians tant but having low prObability4urns out to occur would find it difficult, if not impossible, to include anyvay because the probability .judgment was credibly in-such analyses developmenwhich if they wrong or because, as sometiattninsthappeN the occurred would greatly distort the ec nomic system unexpected development occurred. '''Artu being described, including. fdr exatn le, drastic fuel 2. A developmentthought tote trivial has, through an rationing; vastly higher fuel prices, or evenfree energy. unanticipated dhaili of. eausality or coincidence, another example; evenForrester'ssystem. ' unexpected consequences. dyn ics is a case of extrapolation: here it is assumed An example of the former might be the emtfargu of that a chosen systemic structure remains 'fixed with petroleum by the OPEC states in an attempt to time and that the variables included in the model influence Middle ,East politics; many of the conse- interact according to rules that can be defined through quenCes of such an event could have been forecasted, analysis of historical data. The forecasts noduced but the probability of such an event would have been prekume the structure remains unchanged and the judged' vanishingly small a year before it occurred. variables continue to relate to ore another as they have Therefore, it had been discounted in most energy in the past. Of course, future developments ,can be studies. An example of the latter might be,he Gulf of tested one at a time (the model is simply rerun with the TonkinResolution,whichappearedinnocuous ,new development), but it is usually presumed that such entitrgh- at the time itwas passed but h d, as is now developments act within the old structure, and the,--clear, many unexpected consequences.. result 'is still extrapolation but under different initial assumptions. This line of reasoning .began wit e assumption that the extrapolative developments re in hand and The business of most forecasters most of tCe time is were simply being reviewed for inclusion 'Or exclusion extrapolation. Extrapolation requires allegiance to the on theasis of i'Inportance and probability. In the real notion that forces at work in the past will continue to world,e set of 'extrapolatiVe developments is often be at work in the future. This assumption is bound to quitei complete.Omitted developments,later be wrong eventually.' recognized as impbrtant and stemming from historical events and.trendr, may not have been considered at all. Why? The answer may be failures of imagination and Extrapolative Unforeseen Developments nerve, inadequate expertise, insufficient data, inap- propriate..models underlying the data, collection or. . organization processes any or all of these. , Why would developments rootechn history which are later recogniZed as important be omitted frdm /- forecasting studies when in concept at least they could Mutant Unforeseen Deveopments have been anticipated? Assume first that the prospec- tive development' is in hand during the forecasting Mutant unforeseen events are unprecedented. This study and a decision is being ',Rade about whether to definition recognizes that the future will not- only include it. A decision matriX could be constructed as evolve along smooth paths but (villvalso be subject to follows: inutationsunexpected departures from expected trendswhich,,pnce having occurredleavethe world-- different .for all time. Robert Prehbda, :in kris books. Development is thought to Probability of Important Trivial Designing the Future, calls these key steps411alm- the development . HighLIncluded' Excluded Strafsmann" poi ts, after the researchers who showed is perceived as: ..Law fight be included Excluded in 1938 that atoc chain 'reactions were possible. ../oW : Before them, foreca s 4bout atomic energy probably involved little re Only developments seen to be bcbth important ant an informed guesses but, after them, foe highly probable would certainly be included. If the about atomic energy had'a scientifi4 basis.4 development were seen as trivial it would be excluded, independent of its probability; if it were seen. as having This represents one sort of mutant event; the low probability it might or might not be excluded, spontaneous mutant. In this class are discoveries of independent of its importance: So the reasons for' new heavenly -bodies, new physical phpnomena, . yp extrapolative omissions can be listed as follows: presidential assassinations, physiologic mutations, I. 40 and so-called acts of God. There is at lea t one other do this kind of work most of thetine, adding precision sort of mutant event as well: thecoinci nt mutant to known consistencies and testingthe applicability of ;which,whileforecastable ,perhapsthr ugh+ ex- accepted concepts in new environments. Belief in these trapolative methods, draws its importance frm other, paradigms is a requisite of the guild, studeniMe noncasually linked events which occur at t e sarri taught these,and when they know.them by rote, they time. The coincidence involved here is not sere I, as is are'graduated. ,sometimes meant in statistics, five heads in a robut a fortuitous time-phasinioWhich places diverse'ents But occasionallyoldbeliefsfail in new cir- and developments, of apparently different orig fl in cumstances, Phlogiston, phrenology, and caloric are e justiposition,.Foxample, the chance meeting of two among the debris of advancing science. Kuhn calls the people who later marry, or the availability of tile/trauma which results in the rejection of accepted transistor at a time when guidanceortemminiaturiza- theories and their replacement with others "the crises tion held the key to viable ballistic missile deVelop- of science." Crises are times of trial. Old ideas cairtiot ment: The transistor came into being without reference be lightly discarded; careers are built on them, and ate guided missiles, and the guided missile, witligiit reputations sometimes rest on their continued aCcep- reference to the transistor; together they were syn- tame. When, old ideas are 'discarded, part of the ergistic. firmament disappears;the textbooks are wrong; honored professors,false.Every premise- of the It seems tame these definitions describe the types of discipline must be reexamined and the pieces put back unforeseen. developments that we encounter. Now the together with 'same semblence of order, hopefully questions are these: Ho can our methods be amended greater than that which eAsted before.6 to permit the 'apriori ientificafion of events which would have otherwiseeen unforeseen? How can we Of course Kuhn's model fits many other institutions. forecast -their consequences? Iwill mention four - A school functions according to its set of written and - approaches to the problem of reducing the population .1, unwrittenrules;theseareitsparadigms.Cor- porations pursue their ends until changing prOfitabili- of unforeseen events: 0 ty, shifting markets, or socialintervention mdicate that I. A paradigniatic technique. the old rules of operation are no longer dinctional. 2. Normative search. 3- Morphological analysis.- If Kahn is right, his modelprovides us with a means 4. Consequences of newinstruinentation. for helping to identify the unexpected:search for the crises.Where disciplines or organizations are in In addition,Iwill mention iwo new forecasting,t,turmoil, where _old paradigms ibre.being questioned, techniques undemodevelopment FuluresGroup new ideas will be acceptable: The deeper the crisis, the :that may prove dseful in forecasting theconsequences more likely that the new idea will be mutant rdther than a of unprecedented events: Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) extrapolative., Are there Ku than crises today? A few. and Probabilistic System Dynamics (PSD). Psychology is trying hard to ignore the anecdotal Clearly there are many other techniques being literature -deriveefrom the field, of parapsychology developedelsewhete which could also fit .under this (but less so recently). Quasiis are anomalouswithin rubric: Dynamo gaming and cross-impact simulation, the .accepted concepts of -cosmology. to mention two. i have singled out T1A and RSD because they may be new to the reader. - t . .1 4Iennative Search- A Piiiadighlati6 Technique , Unexpectedevents, either mutant or extrapolativey.- bel discovered' in forecasting studies 1337simply Thomas Kuhn, in his brilliant book,The Structure asking, "What isit that ought to happen?". This of Scientific Revolutions,sstudied the flow of scientific approach assumes a rationality in science or in other, history. He found'it not a continuous stream, each new instinitions which may or may not bepresen. At the- idea adding itgenergy to ever-Widening disciplitleZbut very leist; the question servesas a Point of departure rather a discontinvous series of crises. In hiSimage, the fOr stimulating imaginations to project forecasted business of "normal science" is the probing of the limits events which_might otherwise be omitted, Snppose we- of the accepted paradigm, the laws-and theories that were forecasting in the field of international politics. compristhe content of the disciplines. Most scientists What ought to happen? Forexample, resolution of the e , 41 I * 52 Middle Foist establishment of a, Worldwide extrapolationin such ra way -that humans an8 granary, reduction of the rate of population growth in 'computers are assigned precisely the, task that each developing countries, or establishment' of an inter -' does best. First, the computer extrapolates the past national currency which promotes monetary s\ability. history of a trend. Second, an expert or group of experts specifies a set of unprecedentedifuture events Morphological Analysis and how the extrapolation would be changed by die \ occurrence of these events. The computer then uses The normative search asks what ought to happen. A these judgments About impact to modify the trend -7,.4morphological analysis asks: What is the full range extrapolation. `of what con happen? Zwicky's approach is Complex to The, impacrjudgments are specified in terms of five use;basicallyitconsistsof- firstidentifying the parameters: elements of a systeM and then stating all of the, alternative methods by which the function of the I. Time from the occurrence of the eventtofir subsystem could be accomplished. Combinations Of, respo nse of the Variable... eh of the methods are formed by permuted entries 2. Time from the "occurrence of the event to max -imum deviation of the variable. i order to identify all of the ways that the systemcan "-. be made to function. Before any combinations are 3. Time from the occurrence of the event'to steadystate discarded the question is asked: "Why won't it work?". value, of the variable. 4. Peak 'deviation of the curve from the extrapolation. In concept at least, this is a regimen whichleadsto disc very. In practice there are important limitations: 5. Steady state deviation of the curve from the Hocan one be sure that any list of alternatives is extrapolation. exha stive? The definition of subsystems initself The heart \of TIA is the computer. program for using forms coy,ceputal boundary.Nevehheless, the these judgments to calculate the expected impact of the 'approa h has probably not been usedtoo frequently. selected events on the extrapolated trend. A closed- form procedure .is used to solve this probleni. The Cons quences of New Instrumentation expected value, or mean, of the impact and upper and lower-quartiles of the distribution of possible impacts V are computed for'each indicator. A comparison of past forecasting studies with actual evenfs shows that at least some of' the unexpected 14* The expected value of the impact,is computed by events came about as a result of the invention of new summit the products' of the probabilities of th instrumentation. If orhad been able to project the impacting events for each possible year times te :,4 ;; new instrument; the event which followed Might have mnitude of their impact, taking into accogot their been foreseen as well. For example, the discoverx of specified, lags (see Fiaiire 1). Probabilities of events for pulsars was inot forecasted in the 1964 Delphi study yeari not specified in our files are estimated by,Jinear mentioned earlier. Yet radio telescopes existedat that interpolation, assuming that an evenf, has 0.09 time. The sensitivity of radio. telescopes ,impr ved probability at the present time. Similarly, impactsare ;,04, shortly after1964 and, as a result, signal integra linearly -interpolated between three specifiedimpact time could be reducedtrom the;20'seconds or so wh h magnitudes. Typical TPA runs and input data_are was used in the mid- 1960's toless-than a second. On wir in Figures Z 3, and 4; theintegration .4meThadifeen reduced, radi a rces Thus this technique peimits the forecasterbreak, with OeriodicitySii--4he order of a secon could be finally, the assumption that -past trends mi tc ntinue. detected. Can we now ask what might be discOvered as It permits explicit` consideration of the e fect of a result of improving some other instruments, through unprecedented events ori future trends. improving resolution and accuracy and diminishing . the noise present in other regimes? For example, the electron iniorostope, theass specii&neter, I.t sts-, . _andelectroenCephalograPhs, Probabilistic Systihtt:Dynamics L _ Trend Impact Analysis -The 'Lirtfiisto Growth study: of Meadows8 has. ':"t,", stimulated a.lively debate not only, about its priniarY, Trend impact analysis(TIA), an'analyt procedur? substantive findings' (exponential growth of both .- * oleveloped by,The Futures Grou7 d. ivides the, taik_of poptAtion and capital investment cannot continue for t rig , .42 t -68 Yeniwif 'event ti Perciintageof new drug applications rejected by the - OCCUrTINICe U.S. Food and Drug Administration - '1979 - Pax le 1N . . , . ., .. s t . . . . j, '1918 - ".P7IX lo Pgik li .2 se.:...... - ,- ro,, \lp %. %., I , . *II.T.1. 0 .... .s.Is.. 1977 ,P77X la PnXI 1 PnX12 . A ' 1; ' . % 447.... P 0 ,. 0... 1976: <..P76X410 P7BX11 PAX 12 PAX 13 ,* a * . 1975, PAX 10 PAX 11 P75X 12 ,P75X 13 P7SX 14 0 / 19eo 1970 1975 19N 196 1975 1976 1917 .1978 1979 Aim .1955. Extrapolation inputs: 175 z 75.0' ft year X PX=$robabilty of occurrence iri 1910 z '73.0 . ly = Impact of even Y years from occurrence of the event 186 =51.0 'TOTAL Y 7 E 1E1y + lEiy . . Source of historical dots: U.S. Food and Drug Administration FDA hymns coupling among events and event impacts s eamis, various amiss Ile911911ge Figure 1. Eimected value of 'an event impact . . . manufacturers sales to :; ., . PercentagtAi- phermacenfical hospitals, disks, and laboratories -. , lon.g'with out serious consequences, a conclusion which e can hardy; bt disputed); but about the method of 1N ,analysis itself: Among the. major, Criticisms of the 40 0...,. modeling technique are the following: N C 1. The system .under study is described as a closed system. FeW, if any, outside factors influence the the nit rdg:\In..all but thewprldidlel, h41 aitoutcomwofese exogenous influences may, with time, ecome I11 ot.? the most Ifiportant factors affecting the behavior of the system. 4 ss 2; The Fnodel structure remains fixed durinipthe entire ems time under study. Though, specificvalues of 40 variables will chang. with time,, the equ'ations 11160 ISM 1111 NO 1170 1176 IN 1N6 describing the elatiokships aroong model variables "41rapoktion inputs: 1115.-..331 will noLchange. 1110-141.11 .3. Specifi0- events Which may or may .notoccur bpt 1116 vhich, if,they were occur,woulliw'l -cfect the model are not taken into account. Some@ of hiitoriorl dstsc Drug Amos Vioskig, 7iii thug diordet USA, various issues - _I,- ('Despite these and other shortdomingsthe mddel has great 'power.Itsconstruction. requires thatthe Figure 2. Typical forecasts us1ng- modelers reach some fundamental understanding of . trend impact analysis RI . intricacies,among system the system, and ,that the o.r- elements be probed, Tah'e% consequences of certain e policies can be analyzed (e7*.g., "ff agricuftuial, produc- 43 4 "-54 Forecast Source Years to Yeari to Maximum Yews tolteady Forecast Probability'fnt maximunt impact steady r state source year impact , impact '; (percent) state impack cods impact (percent) ° -02127)-Single-unit dnmpaciagingaccounts for at .91 1975 1 10 10 least 50% of drug products sales. - . -aims, Enactment of isderal legislation regulating. -1975__ 2 .3 ° 5 3 5 fa .;4226._ prices of health and deg prOducts.--- 1' 021011Development of a national drug formulary ,501971 2. 5 -5 ,41/4 by the FDA. 001310Establishment of regional centers for .25.1910: 1 7 5 5 . 213 .. -elided examination and centralization and Istandardization of clinical eitamifiation data. ease Enactment of federstlegisbitiol requiring .501978 1 2 7 2 7 3228 generic Wiling., 016245 The majody of U.S. hospitals are .501912 1 3 10 3 10 . 294 associated with ni health maintenance organixatiorisidem. 01624Enrollnient by 18% of thee U.Sepopulation in .101975 1 7 15 10 '12 215 NUN maintenance organizations which elnphasize prevertik rathbr than remedial 0 medicine kid provide a iinied rage of. medical services to subsaibem fOrtfixed ' con trect fee padre advance. OM The three top drug Manufactured initiate a .10'1978 1 3 20 3 - 20 policy of direct sales to hospitalst dinics, and laboratories. Figure 3. Potential-future events used to forecast percentage of pharmaceutical manufacturers stiles to hospitals, clinics, and laboratories. tivity were doubled in the absence of populatiori model is developed that shows the dynamic behavior of control, how long would large-scale starvation be the system being studied. The,model's validity is tested 'delayed?"), and occasionally instructive, sons times by using initial data for some past. date, for xample,- counterintuitive, results can be obtained. 1950, and having'the model calculate variable values Probabilistic system dynamicsis a new modeling up to the present day. Comparisons of theseaculated I Ochnique designed- to overcome the criticisms men- values with actual historical data can be used to assess' tionedabove by combining the modeling pro'cldure of the success of the Model irrsimulating the system under, system dynamicsAitli the event handling techniques of study. All of this is rather slanclird. cross- impact analysis. A set of events, eitherFx- -A cis- impact matrix isothcn formed of events og ,pnous or endogenous ,to thearea of study, impact the which, if they occurred, would affect the structure of odel according to their indiVidual time dependent the system being modeled or the. relationship among ,probabilities. These imPacts may take the form of variables which describe it. Thes,,are events which in changes in parameter values, changes in the 7i,nodel general are not rempsented irtthe`historical._model. equations, of changes i% the actual structure of the They arg unprecedented. .. The impacts' of these- events* own the Tnodel are' The system dynamics model is developtd using the ,,described. These impacts may come from expert information about variable relationships supplied by a judgment in cases whtre the impact is uncertain or they- panel Of experts and the information gathered from the maybe calCOlated in cases where the impact is obvious. appropriate literature by The,Futures Grohi staff. A and not judgmental. These nripacts on the model may 'LL qk Scow Forecast Source Years to Years to Maximum Yoari to file Steady .Forecast probability first maximum impact steady. number' state source Yew 'impact (percent) state impact ade lamed (percent) . 021544 FDAreguidscoinpletteiriluatiOnOldingli4151910 10 -10 MO . by testing on animals prier to any human tend g. 5' 021563 Remove! of.thefpandfather sista" for .621910 _prihnilnigs, Sucks: digitalis, pwrageric, asinrin, opian, and meridians: regional- - -.15 .1910- ZO -5.. 3230 phannecolo0iad centers wrath provide training through student participation and .. also accomplishrivaluation of drugs to obtain data for tiff/114, 021218 Understanding of the Medianbms involved .80 19741 , 10 -10 71 -5 3227 in deep, inducting the functions itserves, the biological processes which take place, . , . and means efaindutirl9shoP- c . , mive , 020983Availability of a airs or .301910, 18 12 16 0 3230 l'' (linear based at drug therapy or ,\, ertineering rather then / 020966Implementation of a comprehensive , .3519/5 5 federal health insurance program covering drugs endemic*: forull metre:eland. dental cars. - 621512Mwkadiversification of the ,..90 191 0- 5 .5 5 3231,. . ilhamiaceutical industry fromilw1072' /... - *duct tines. . . .1 4 Figure 4. Potential future events used to forecestphrcentega of new drug applications rejectedby the FDA. ' k . take severafforms. The actudritatt44,4*the , - .. model, 1. The inclusionotz, evenfs in the model allows may be' changed; coefficients of-dithitittationsmay ' occurrences oiitijdi the area Of focus 'of.the balc .Vary; new 'terms may beaddeftifir subtracted , froM, model to be Wien into account in the model equations, or the table func don& linking variables mayi, lb\ N. predictionsInthis manner,any, ',number of tie affected. ! e i:=.. p .4*" . ! ex4enous-events maybe includedand.lhescope of t ./ ' N' - . Finally,,in our approach the model variables also,,* theiortOdel is, no Ion "matedt.0.,the closed system feed backs to the event probabilitiesso iliat, 'for, de0 0 by, theodd boundariis. ,,.4 `le, rs''if GNP increases In a 2. T iiructiire of the economic inodel,, model itself becOtnes dynamic. . 1t-ffrs evelltsdepenclenton federal fund* would be likely t Itilationihips among `variables even among J---r%ii', increase in probability. Thus -four,new loops ar sectors of the modehmay change with thileas'the -'"introduced:-., rd'#:, i ' , impacts, from other parts of -the moderand from, ,r events.;a4e included.,, ", i , Event, v.v.ent cross' impact. , . . , ,2.,,Event .to,structitre. 3. Polres&can.$e tesletiin terms of their effectson the . 3: Event to table.functi011' ------..:, ''' reationshiPsjamongoda variable5 model Arm- --,.., . .. __, ___ 4. model levels to event probability. 1 rey)r,eveAt probab litiek..--Picies that'have their , Inairgigiiact?:41.4,ka-4outsid theba0c model The main advantages of probabilistic can system, ,'trfstill tie tested/fOrlinpaft thr ughtheeffect,of those dynamics areas . policteVon the exogenous evehts.th,.in'uciismore , '.)00 1 ,, nc , - : .() ,, it ,-.. ,, * '' s - ,,),1,,..:, 4', \) .t, 1 -;'- >1 1 complete description of the side effects of 'policy 4. Why not a study in one'or two disciplines of what decisions.is possible. new instrumentation might mean? . Some research suggestions that flow from this He of thinking are given here: 4 , I.*The need for a continuing comparison between Almost everyone in futurn research feels that the forecasts and occurrences, with particular emphasis methods which constisut,Vprcrystal ball are cloudy, on a search for reasons for omissions. The cloud represents,t0V- uncertaile:: 2. An imaginative search .for crises within scientific accuracy and yalidity, bill also°n1Y4:)°w an obpuring of whaui, isciplines and institutions and, When -fOtind, a may ultimatery be seen to be important events. I urgt4 s Gond search for ideas' in test. that our research agenda include not only pi:Olt:61 3e More work on the development of morphological directed toward improved accuracy and reliability, but analysis. also toward diniitlishing the scope of the unknown. : FOOTNOTES ' Theodore .1, Gordon and Olaf Helmer, Report on a Long -Range 5 Thomas S. Kuhn. Vie- Structure of Scientific Revolutions Forecasting Study. Paper P-2982 (Sarita Monica, Calif.. The Rand (Chicago, III.. University ,orChicaga.Press. 1962). Corporation, J964), 6 Harry Harrison -and Theod'Ore J. Gordon (eds.), Ahead of Time 2 Ian I. Mitroff and Murray Turoff, "Technological Forecasting"`r(Garden City, N.Y.:Doilieleday; 19.72). and Assessment Scienceand,'or Mythology?"Technolositcal The basic concept of TIA was del7eloped principally by Forkasting and-Social Change. Vol. 5. No. 2 (1973), pp. 113-134. Theodore J.. Gordon, Herbert Gerjuoy, and Harold Becker. Carl Sandburg; The People, Yes," Chief Modern Poets of Significant contributions were also madeby,Wayne t. Boucher, as England and America. Cirald DeWitt Sanders and John Herbert wellas by two consultants to The Futures Group, D. Holmes antJ. islelson (eds.)ANew York: Macmillan &Company, 1936). Russman. . - ' Robert W. Prehoda, Designing the Future: The Role of bonella H Meadows. et 4r77x Limittio Growth (New York. Technological Forecastmg (Ithiladelphia, Pa.: Calton, 1967), p.15. Universe Books, 1972). p 4 of JJ .a . . 46 7 a. ,4 4 4 - PART II ACCOMPLISHMENTSANDPROSPECTS A 4 ro Chapter 3 v Attitudes Toward Forecastingin Politica Science and Sociology:A'. Comment .944 Social Forecasting 4 Wayne`'f Boucher Introduction,, As argued in several other chapters in this book;the elsewhere (where "study ",means extensive and critical futures movement and the futures researchers within it reading in sources ranging beyond the Neti,York function -typically ointtorisiderable ignorance- of Times, Fortune, -or Newsweek), these individuals_and theories, methods, results-, standards, and _ institutions those who are' influeneekl-bi their examplemust which could supportiftwir work. The field has several become increasingly superficial. In,effect, the size of invisible colleges; it lacks an invisible university. The the black S'axes they deal withgrows larger, not field lacks a Tfofessional society (at least inmost smaller. Third,-and Most significant °perhaps, '-cou the ies, including the United States), and it lacks idiosyncracies and, especially, the lack of intellectual spec fied and .generally accepted professional stan- awareness that Come to be assoeiated°With particular dards. Moreover, whiletraining programs and institutions and practitioners tendto weaken, not aCademietourses abound'and the field has afew go*od strengthen,thecredibilityof individual +Studies; journals and newsletters, itstill lacks a satisfactory thereby lessening the chances that the results willever, means to exploit past and current experience with be used, no matter what,their intrinsic quality.Worse, .forecasting. in established individual disciplines.These yet, the naivete and resultant failings of even a single and many other related shortcomings which might be organization are often,taken. by potentialusers as mentionego combine to create a.. peculiarity., in the, evidence of:debility. (or worse) in futuresresearch at professional atmosphere that is anything but healthy in large. In the longrun, unfortunately, thesedifficulties long-.terin perspective. can be expected t' grow, assuming that no, changesare -The peculiarity has several manifestations,three of made Within theiffeld. the more importantof which arethese:First, In any ey,ent,itis Oiganizations in the field tendto take on a style that is certainly true today, that shaped almost entirely by the academic background organizatio' ibracticing futures researchare inclined and work experience of their founders,For example, to improv ei reinvent, or rediscover muchmore often _engineers are inclined to view problemsas engineering necessary. This may be unavoidable in anew net, but it is fairto ask when "new': is no longer problems; researchers who have livedfortweOryg.g.C! ost institutions have hardly begun to devote the with arparticular set of techniquesare inclined to favor ' those techniques in their current work. Theinevitable resou ces that will be required to establish the inter- and result, of course, is that individual futures research ": intra-organizationalcapabilitiesand the ....organizations are biased in orie direction sunforganizational-instruments that would alter this or another, situation.! and the field as a whole grows less, notmore, uied,' 4 despitelipservice to theoutlines of the spine_ One of the key steps that needsto be taken. is.to philosop Secontl,the,p,r49.# 01.; ',who -developmeans. wherebyfuturesresearchers can simply follbt their own lights are neeegarny 1 Ong become familiar with state-of-the-aft developments out the bulbsthat is, 'exhausting their intellecthal in theitheory or practice of forecasting inthe individual capital. Without continual study of work compl4ted disciplines most relevliTto theirconcerns. (A very 49. (.; **iv *AC Jai promising corollary of this recommendation is that The German form of life is difinitely determined4 state-of-the-art practitioners in these disciplines would for the next thousand years... .There *ill be no ,become involved in futures research.) This is not to other revolution in Germany for the next one suggest thatallis well -with, forecasting in -these thousand years!2 disciplines,becausemost assuredlyitisnot. 6 WhaKreinarkableabout thisstatement is not that the .Nevertheless, few problems of serjous current interest Third Reich fell short of Hitler's expectation by 987 in futures research have not already been explor Chin years and eight months, but that contemporary one or more of these disciplines; frequen these independent observers failed so completely to ap- problems have been analyzed in great dept, and well- preciate its- ultimate significance. On -its face,..it could definedanswersthough not nec ssarilyfinal answers are now in hncLi1 addition, thchof.. the be taken merely as a boast.3 Less superficially, it could be viewed as a Colifirmation that the regime had in fact futures movement itself irieadquartered in academia; fully consolidated its power. But at this point both and in some departments important new research is being conducted that pertains directly to .40ossible friends and ene 'mie's in and outside of Gerniany knew futures of futures research. e. so; the ruthless purge of June 30, 1934, the published telegram of approval of the purge signed by Hinden- This chapter brieflyreviews attitudes and ap- burg, the combining of the offices of Reich Chancellor proaches to forecasting in two disciplines that clearly and Reich Plesident upon Hindenberg's death on have a close relationship to futures research. The August 2, the military's personal oath on the same day, purposes of the chapter are, first, to demonstrate that to Hitler rather than to the Constitution or the States these disciplines, and futures research have indeed and the rubber-stamp plebiscite of August 19 all made to learn from each other and, second, tondicate it plain.. here and there cerfaiiiiibinTs-Orcornm-on interest-where When then is its meaning? In retrospect, at least, its one might immediately help the other. Itis worth emphasizing that the focus in this chapter falls on -profound but unnoticed implication was that since the regime was-finally and indisputably in controluat home, attitudes and approacl.;es rather than n substantive the foreign policiesof Mein Kampf were now results or methodsboth of -deserves more operational. Total domestic control wasthe essential extensive treatment than is possible here. precondition., Once it has. been achieved, these policies Atv We begin with political science and with aijuestion could and would Tx pursued, among them principally in political science that is also the most important the. interlocking objectives of creating the Greater question. facing future's research; the possibility of German Reich and securing needed lebensraum. But forecasting war. We then turn to sociology, Finally, we because Mein Kampf, plus dozens of speeches before ( attempt to generalize from these reviews to assess the and after its publication, left little doubt as to, the oveiall state-of-the-art in social forecasting, boih ag meaning of these goals or the methods that would be 4 practiced in the established disciplines and as practiced used to attain them,5 Hitler's prediction can be viewed in futures research. as clear notice.to the world that war was not merely possible but, given the existing political situation, a 'virtual certaint. In other words, Hitler's statement that morning amounted to a major public declaration Political Science that Germany would eventually wage the necessary 41t war for "Wars and _:indeed would . win then go Perhaps the most aacious pr tion of the overwhelmingly that lie and his successors would not, twentieth century rinly the p ediction that has be threatened for the next 1,000 years. Because we now had the greatest tangible impact o the lives of people, have, he said, "the power to do everything," Germany's and civilization in our times -is o e that falls in the future actions "cannot be limited by anyhing,,except domain of social forecasting.It rovides a very through Impulses of a tactical, persbnal, and hence, : instructive case with which to open- this section on tempbralinatiire."6 attitudes tow'M forecastinginpoliticalscience, , Quite possibly such an interpretation can be though the lessons it seems to teach apply throughput sustained, only in retrospect, especially if we insist, the whole domain of social forecasting. narrowly, on aigning a kind of magical significance The predi &tion was ,made on the morning of to/the, date of S ber, 1934.7(We now know, of Zeptember 5, 1934, by a very determined and confident course, that Hitler himself considered wa.t. inevitable at. _ politician named Adqif Hitler: this time id fact, lon&before this timtthough until 50 60 4r spring of 1939 he consistently hesitated to pinpoint One of the first dates from mid-1933; it is Sisley the date.8) But it.is rather interesting to observe how Huddleston's War Unless...,' difficult. it is to tied a theory or- antanalysis from the a book that was commended by persons like H. G. Wells and Lloyd early 1930's that tries to argue how sucha ":crazy state," George but obviously with little effect. Huddleston's to use Dror'S phrase, could possibly be expected 'to approach, as his title suggests, is entirely conditional in continue in existence for even 20 Veers, still less 1,000 the sense that he does not assert the inevitability of year's, without war. the war, but only its inevitability if certain facts are not But apart from the existence of elaborate theoriesor understood and a series of steps, which he defines, is an awareness_of_Hitler's _private intentionsthe-more not taken. As such, the boolLprovidesa _superb general question naturally arises whetherit was .' instance of a forecast consciously intendedto be self- possible for any outside observerto have forecasted the defeating. The author's method combines historical coming War, particularly befOre the string of foreign analogy and reasoned analysis of the .implications of policy actions that began on March 16, 1935, with the Versailles treaty in view of (I) the continuing quest Hitler's announcement of the introduction ofcorn: forzp+wer and security by individual nations 'and (2) pulsory military service and the creation ofan air thFlikely possibilities of resolvingEuropean issues force "the first overt blow against the principles of through the available mechanisms, suchas The League Versailles."9 A look at the literature of politicalscience of Nations or pacts to outlawwar. His general during diet period is completely disheartening; for conclusion is stated early in the book: example, from 1930 through the end of 19394 the Political Science Quarterly did not publisha single ... we should make no mistake about it. Nonrevi- article attempting: to forecast the war. SomeNf the sion [of Versailles] meanswar;or rather if there More distinguished books of the periodnotably is no peaceful revision, there will bea warlike --Carr's-The --Twe-my -----Year's--- revision. The choice is not between revisionor, orously...eschewed pro,phecy."19 ,Even today, most nonrevision.It'is between 'the two kinds of .sociaiscietcrits,,among them a few who also are critics revisionby agreement or by arms.I4 of futuresresearch,rule out 'the possibility of confidently anticipating any such awesome and unique. "There is," he writes, "no need of 9.nferences,no need, min-made disasters. Robert Nisbet; for onCexp'reisly cif machinery; no need of pnklicify."15 What is needed' points to World War II as an instance of thetype of is a closed-door. meeting by England,France, Ger- occurrenawhich cannot, in principltbe predictedon many,And Italy to work °tit "a reasonable plan in the "genuinely scientific" grounds, and he fancies that general interest": futures researchers would agree with him in this. He has ;hem asking: Either the four Great Powers will act in this1 fashion, and will employ their influence in favour ..we [futUrologists]are not expected to predict of a final and consented settlementor they will, maniacs like, Hitler and randomevents such as or at, least some of therri', sponsor irresponsible World War II, are we? Indeed not)! plans against each other, andencourage their Despite the dismal showing of the academics in the protegesto acts or unreason, whether in defence/of 1930's and the reservations of current critics, the fact of the existing- frontiers, 'or in attackon existing the matteristhat WOrld War II was correctly frontiers. Of these two things,one. Which shall it forecasted again And again between 1933 and 1935 be?, One + undubitably spellswar; the other (and frequently.theleafter) and that, by any standard, probably spells peace.16 these forecasts were not only reasoned but, where the fluddleston thus combatants or the possible dates of outbreakwere correctlykforecasted th4vent, and sReCified, sometimes astonishingly accurate. Themost a detailed analysis might alsoishOw that he predicted it interestingoftheseforecastsweremadeby as well. Be That as it may, hoWever, he did not' forecast' journalistswhich; by the way, may explain why when the war would occur, though it is clear incontext 1, Hides, merely dismissed the "expert's" but regularly that he anticipated war within a fewyears; it would not excoriated thepress.12 Others were made by politicians be fair to accuse him of omitting an estimate of thedate and have only come to light since 1940. In anycase, in 'order to avoid disconfirmation. these forecasts were made'. The three examples which Both the event and a range of years of probable follow will illustrate thar nature and something of the occurrence were anticipated in,what is unquestionably approaches' used in'their Preparation.4 a most remarkable study: Leland Stowe's Nazi Means 1 a. 51 , 61 War.v Stowe'!; -metd wasfardifferentfrom A final example of correct anticipationthis time Huddlestoirs; he chacterizes it as "rational deduc- involvinga non probabilistic assertion about the tion" based on facts a d impressions garnered in an futureis found in a book written in 1934 by Drew "unremitting journalistic enquiry" during a mere two Pea ?son and Constantine Brown.23 Their method, if it months inside Nazi Germany (September and October may be called that, differs radically from that of either IL 1933). No sources, printed or otherwise, from outsid -Huddleston or Stowe, consisting as it does principally of Germany were used He read Mein Kamp ; 1 e in the accumulation of headlines, diplomatic gossip, looked;he countedmilitaryandquei-military random impressiong about how political de6isions are personnel, training programs, and demonstiltions; he customarily made, and topical anecdotes, untii`t talked; and he listened. What he heard from Hitler's fiery weight of this material points to an apparently speeches was that "Germany wants nothing but peace." inescapable. conclusion. AleYng the way, theauthors On the other hand, what he saw was, that "psy- also draw on some very strik4ig illustrations. ,For chologically, spiritually,and physically the Nazi example, they recount that when Germany withdrew dictatorship is designed, par excellence, to create a from The League of Nations and the Disarmament Nation of warriors and a ciN ihan population trained to Conference in October 193-3 the Polish respiinse was to follow blindly in ,their wake"18.and thatit was stagea massivemilitary displayto Which the frantically doing so. With what consequence'? He sums Germans responded by erecting a statue on the Polish up the Niews of other foreign observers then inside frontier, bn the base of which was inscribed not only a Germany: list of German cities in Poland that "await liberation" but- also the motto, "Germans! Bide the hours whin will expiate these bleeding frontiers!"24 After reviewing [they] are virtually unanimous in the conviction literally hundreds of such bits and pieces of trends in that present National Socialist policie;, if pursued motion throughout the world, their prediction -is in their present methods and toward _present firmand broader than the others: goals, cannot fail to precipitate another EGropean 1Y catastrophe sooner or later.," Wafin Europe may come in any number of ways now. It may come almost immediately. It may not His personal conclusion is much_ the same, though it come for five years. Rlif] warewill come. [And] adds file time ?riffle: when it domes to Europe it...will come al§o to the' Far East.25 TheHitlermovement. . .hasincreasedin- Some significance probably should be attached to estimably the probability of anothe71Var..in the fact -that the Huddlestons, the Stowes, and the Europe at any time iFiThe next five to fifteen years. 'Pearsons were ..jornalists,specialists in bringing (We say five to fifteen year,s,.where' manywould together many different kinds of information to define say three years or five, bit in an effort to avoid that always elusive "big" event. But in these specific possible overstatement and to express both the cases something morethan,thiscapability. was most hopeful and.most conservative view.). . .The certainly at play; recall Randall's ironicacOmment on choice of., Hitlerite Germany, reckoned bYrfacts, the Alsops: "the Alsops are excellent historians, figures, and actions alone, seems fatally projected though one can be quite sure that their predictions of toward a final war.20 doom will never be realized: something worse will come to pass in the meantime."26 Hence, at a time when It is noteworthy that after the war had broken out, everyone confesses the unavoidable, central; and some writers used essentially the same evidence and continuing !bed to rely on informed judginent in 'arguments as Stqwe'S to 'demonstrate thatthe war was forecasting, it would certainly seem important to "inevitable."21 But like Inddleston, Stowe did not reexamine books liktthese three at length to learn if believe that it was; hedimplyjudged it veryunlikely pdssiblc just how the evidence was sifted and arranged that the actions necessary ticid it would be taken, and how the conclusions were drawn. Presuinably, the hircrentally; he also judge ery unlikely that the results of such an examination could have some United States would deVe lop the policies and make the generality, not only in political science but throughout sacrifices required if it were to maintain its neutrality in the fields of social forecasting.27 the coming ivai= 4,klence, "the opposite alternative of eventually becoming b belligerentwould appear Be _that as it may, these books point to ,_;another almost ,unayoidable."22; conclusion of general importance, namely, thatat least , _. 52 62 4 4 et 'N- 4' S some of the developthentS like those Nisbet e4s Food.-resources, population, industry,economic "random events". can in fact beforecasted. The reaPri prosperity or poverty, social . -of communication, theunforeseeable.isextremelylarge,but political stability or discontent,iminobilisrd or nevertheless smaller than social scientistsappear to reform, war or peace, all believe. Certain kinds of cataclysmic interact with "one politicalevents, another, and none of themcan be projected or in particular, can be forecasted, andoften are. The first predicted to an acceptable approximation problem; of course, is to identify the of:the. types, and no future without taking, account of the work of thiszort hasiyet been done.28 rest.34 t 0 . The ultimate problemsh&forecasts are, dis- Having reviewed, a greatmany models, including the seminated tocleciiionmal7e)s andwhat criteria come Club of Rome endeavor, Deutsch is wellaware of the intoz.play before the forecastsare believedare, enormous difficulties and risks in such an undertaking. especially severe in the field of politicalscience, where "But it would be still worse notto, try; for we are likely ,vt credibility remains a serious issue.A professor in the to need for our survival every bit oftrue information as, field writes: "I believe Iam correct in saying that to where the world is.going. [Work towarda model of Political Science has the lowest professionaritatus:Of this lore] represents our best hope toanswer on a world any of the social sciences, It receives leasc,outside scale.anf ancient and most basic question:how men and funding for research; it is leastconsulted, women have made their own history in thepast, and ment; and 'its mem,rs are least freque how they can do so again."33 by governmentas political scientists: V' As an expression of 'a distant reasons are offereby, this author objective, worth "' tseeking by all social scientists, this scientists have done littleor nosiling,io;: idea necessarily combines the continued praotice of field, and (2) "we hahe traditiohally had little.mterest each discipline with several large-doses of hope, not only aboutovercoming or knowledge of [theubstance o9 policy matters sowe -- difficulties'intheory,36butalsoabouthow haver had no contriutions to make of any valueto policymakers."30 The policymakers and other analysts mighttest and exploit e and other factors have been the various models developed barriers to forecastinefforts; the lack of such efforts along the way. There would seem, however, to be has prevented tlikuilding of muchof a track record; some grounds for hope in the experience Of -the last' decadeor two and in certain the lack of a Word hawhelpedmake credibility a concern. more limited current activities. TheNavy-sponsored interdisciplinary study of the early1960's concerned with influence Increasingly over the past 25 processes in dealing with strategiC years, though not in problems (Project, Michelson) and the' any major way because of failures to foresee Air Force- events like .sponsored study of 196fthichconcerned itself, in World War political science has begunto sake a (part,. With the world political environment(P.roject futures perspective, and in the lastdecade or so, same Forecas) are examples.of major efforts-to prgelitmers have begunto think out loud, albeit map some parts ofi, the political future in orderto provide a haltingly, in the language of futuresresearch 31 For TrameworIc for policymaking. example, in his useful Innumerable smallerf. survey of the growth and present efforts, m4ny of them involving userof ,status of quantitative methods in political techniques (like. science, Karl Delphi or \scenario writing), whichhave 'come to be Deutsch nods in the directionof work by Daniel Bell, associated\With futures de Jouvenel, Delapalme, Richta, Baader research, also have been Junck, Kahn performed-4though typically with and Weiner, and others and a goal' of under- asserts that these efforts standing perceptionsor alternatives rather than of have made "the projecting of futuretrends and . ranking the forecasts for policychoice.37,Some,yery possibilities, and the suggestion, of suitableprOvisions interesting work also has been donein political science ;to meet various contingencies.t 'ta significantfield of lblitical and social classrooms.38 And there have beenman expresgions sciinee."32 Moreimportant,_ of '`the need for taking \better accout4 erhaps, is. that in the list of neeted of political. developments in fun) es,39 as''well as pori le risks,asone apprabhes methodology with which Deutschconcludes his-essay, suc special prominence is given t o course, there, has beck a a projectrather, to a y increasing number of discussions of how.new programt hat reflects an 'aspiration ofmany futures t'app,oaches, escially those, f futures research,might, ,researchers, at least ..,in their freezwheeling ,!,_ be exploited the creation of a total world infidel or further 'developed by political, ofpoliticaland( scientists.41 The --;-- j social cliang03 His premise is e linesof thought are now corning to/g{,.. noteworthy; especially if a 7 taken literally: be crystallized in handful a volumes." : ; . , --..*,, - All of this work reflectsijnplicitly a grouting however, thane has been a certain historical tension acknowledgment; however reticent, of theses offered within sociology that has, until recently, inhibited any by de Jquvenel in his brilliant paper, "Political Science widespreati acceptance of the notion that a throughgo- andPrevision."43Lucidly ,and authoritatively, he ing futurestoriented sociology was feasible. This is the, develops the case for forecasting in political science old conflict, also seen elsewhere, between the desire, on (and, indeed, elsewhere). A summary does no justice to one hand, to classify phenomena, and build theories his presentation, but it may be useful here to quote the and, on theother, to apply theseconcepts and theories points he focuses on:. to practical: issues.,1 Theory -building has carried the day, "catainly over the last 50 years. Berelson has I. Foresight is an expertise required in the political... summed up the situation, in these words: scientist: ,. 2. Public decisions require a variety of foresights othek The present arrangements in modern sociology than that of the political scientist. largely rim against 'sociology -in action [being] 3. The politidal scientist is competent to appreciate: done most - helpfully and efficiently: the rewards priorities and consistency in priticiel, the detaUs.of are given for theoretical or technicalvirtuosity; which he isincompetent to judge. the "reference group" consists of sociological - q 4. The political scientist must seek to coordinate colleagues, not practical \ administrators; identify, the multifarious anticipations(i.e.,to "newness"ofinsightormethodoreven impacts of the Same forecasted development and to vocabulary is often valued more than practical assess the interaction of alternative forecasted states ,results; indeed the justification for doing applied of affiirs). . research at all is often tied to the "basic" payoff 5. The political scientist should be a detector of trouble that will allegedly accrue (the so-called Robin 'to come...Trouble is indeed his business Hood effect of taking te funds-from the rich political 6. Politicalforesightrequires "study, of client or foundation infersted in the problem and behavior. . .4he behaviOr we presently observe is not putting-them to the use of te poor discipline). The the only behavior of which the subjects observed are weight of disciplinary opinion, I think, requires capable (especially as individuals). One tojustify an action study not by its .° I. The political forecaster Must gueSS how people will contributiontopracticalaffairs but byits. come to feel. : .The dynamics' of moods. 'contribution to disciplinary ends." 8. The politicalscientistshould foretellthe ad- . - . justinents suitable to iniprove the adequacy of the Similarly, after reviewing conflicts in the ichoice of institutional system to cope with changing cir- methods in sociology air some of the institutional cumstarices. constraints on real-wold applications in the field, . ...- , 14 Interestingly, all eight pointsgend to describe th JamesFennesSekgoei4n to point out a fundamental Huddlestorrs-, the Stowes, -and the Pearsons. If th , "lack, of fit between our); ubstantive style in sociology- literature reviewed here is anY5 dicatiOn however, and the needs of policy research ": they are ,a1SO coming to -descri e a new breed of In my., opinion, one basic problem faced by political scientist. But his number is smallt and his 'sociology thit it has ,not faced up to the influence on his own discipline or on futures research implicationsof "future shock" forits own has been;, inconsequential far. Unfortunately, given .., work. ..it seems fair to say that the mainstream of the weight of conventional ttitudes and approaches in sociology stilt views theory as something fixed and this field,it,islisely to rem, n so for some timeito come, .... ,0.1 stable, rather than as a dynamic, fluid entity. We Stilt see;theory.in more or less Platonic terms, and aim to-understand "the" theory of, for exatinple, SociolOgy peer group `pressure 'inthe Classroom. Our - I experience in research along these lines should Sociology .and s ciat psychology shoulhave a, Aperhaps have convinced us by now that such a closer Mationship to futures research than any other theory:is a will -of -the -wisp [as is the idea] that a disciplines, not only because "sociology gr w put of a research project ideally should "test" a hypothesis, concern with prediction,"45 but milltr,implortantly just as the natural scientists- do.47 because the subjectsinvestigated in these fields tend'to overlap more with the present and ultimate concerns of Something of the deeper meaning of these corninents futures research than those ofAny ()hers. In, general, may be gleaned from Table 1, whichatterripA to reduce P. a O ( Table 1.Paradigms.o1 Social Change, Classifiedby Major Theoretical Emphases*. 1 / Principal Underlying Assumptions . . F,lo ular Empirical Class of Theory and Regarding Stability of Aegardir'ig the Directionality' MetePhorical Testability of Typical Representative the Societal Organization ff of cherige EquNalents Central' Propositions volutionary theorip Society and soqal change All societies alall,times Life cycle of (Comte, Spencer, Little or no possibility, processes are considered are moving uniformly in biological species. Durkhelm), to. beliiherently usefulness-lies principally . the direction of increased in 'describing, past changes change Occurs smoothly adaptability through and slowly specialization; output of change is "progress'' Equilibrium theories, Dittd, with the exception ;-Ditterbut homeostatic Nonbiological including functionalism.of Ogburn's theory of Little or no possibility "mechanes" rather than , cybernetic systems until propositions are and systems theory cultural lag destabili ing ones are (Parsons, Ogburn) "broughtfclown to a more the focus of research; opeiational level" output of chgtge is stability 3.-Conflict theories Society and social change Same as evolutionary Groups or classes of Little or no possibility , . (Marx, Dahrendort) processes are considered eA the,ories,but emphpg. *individuals competing for major ideas; many tote inherently unstable; fallon the stu of for economic resources specific forecasts by existing socialsunity' or hoc1 org abons as or 6r power writers like Marx have Stability, is primarily a player a zero-sum been disc6nfirmed . function of coercion ga ; putout of change is instability 4, Rise -and -fall theories Same as evolutionary Ching° lack,sa uniform Life cycle of individual, (Weber, Spengler, Littleor no possibility theories,(for Spengler j.direction from society; biological units; Sorokin) for major ideas;.some and Sorokin); Same as outpiat: of change is 'alternation of the conflicnheories (for specific forecasts have t varying levels of growtfi,, seasons been tested (Spengler. Weber) followed by decline or .eiplicitly rules out the extinction legitimac y test of iverific Derived principally from material in Richardp.Applebaum, Theories of Social Change (Chicago: Markham PublishingCompany, 1970)respecially Chap. 5. '65 o .. to a single page the evolution of theories of change and into the requirements of the scientist or engineer:" the weightiest calls for allegiance in sociology (2aer the Su cess with constructed systemswhat makes the past 200 years. Noteworthy is the final columnhich news;unfortUnately,italsohasproduced an suggests, quite simply, that none of the leadingideas in overblown impiession "of the predictive' capacity of these theories can be established one way or theother,-- eulapplied] 'Physicalseitneesindealing with and hence they4tiave no predictive-value. Indeed,say utunanipulated reality." In contrast, social science has Applebaum, these theories: ,pot given comparableemphasis to its own' successful predictions_derived from constructesystemi. Its best- ..offer explanations of societal change which,' _ known failures in forecasting Have concerned future although in part "convincing," remain untestable. states ofAural systems, and these.errors have beeri To the extent that [such] theories.. &remain .large enough ,to 'undenoine the entire predictive - neral.. .apparently neitheribe prOved .enterprise just the reverse of what has happened in nor dispnived.Perhaps we can agree with the physical sciences.51 Second, social predictionsare Parsonsimistic prediction that when a usually compared unfairly pith those in the physical Theory of structural change is available, "the sciences, in the sense that the accuracy of preedictions niillenium for social science will have arrived. This 6 o- from constructed systems in one fitildis weighed . ',will not come in our time,. and mdst probably against that of predictions from a. natural systems.in never."48 the other: Tor 'these and other reasons, Henshel . , concludes that prediction in the social sciences is not Sociologyinclinestowardbeingthemost only worth pursuing but is teasonably well grounded, masochistic of aft the social sciences, of course.-It is more so than most people befieve.52' difficult to-find an important sociologist who doaot at some point lament the "triviality," the "pettiness," Others 'have admitted*, thar .unique problemssur- the "irrelevance," the "banality," ofirnost of the work round the practice of floieeasting in sociology but have done by sociologists.49 At their heart, these complaints argued that the best way to solve them is to get downto. can be viewed as a reflection offundamental doubt as cases, to try and then trYa.gain.-THis argument has to whether the effort invested in the develipment of actually been made out of a simple fear that sociology t xonomies and grand thetry regarding. thf dynamics, , might end up being unsurped: f Social change has paid off in predictive power,or _.. TIV difficulties of making trustworthy *jet- / ever will. Crudely put, the practical choice.on this issue . appears to have become one of continued incessant nom, whether by sociologists or interdisciplinuy teams, will 'eventually be met_ .The need from tinkering with broad theoretical constructs (because, 7 / at least, they canprovide "cogent" explanations of the here ' utfor making them igreater than ever past) or the taking of some other tack, out. of which 1)efOr sociologists refuse 'to get into the act,° may come a greater ability to forecast and, thereby, the. their e 'to the Westein community in helping possibility of advancing more credible Claimiabout the :toframe policy,,' willsurelydecline.TFe political. Scientists,psylchOogists, dikcipline and the.profession of sociology. ' . 6 `Computer,technologists, and interdisciplinary Without rejecting the oldsystems or 'theories professionals: lik5 operations research analyst's, entirely, some writers have seena way out of this choice are how making such projections for business, by urging a new .understa'nding (and 'practice) of go v ern me;!tat. a nd_ military leacters.. There isno sociological prediction on the basis of a clearer point in professional sociologists standing tom definiptn of the concept' of prfiction in the social pletely aside"53 scien6ei as a who/e,'vis-a-vis pre lotion in the natural ".. I sciences. The most. thoughtfulse of this sort by a Still another approach toward futures MinkinCin sociologist has beenrriadeby Richard Aenshel. Two of sociology has been to urge, in effect, the creation of his points, in particelan, might be mentioned.5° First, new \subdiscipline. of "futuristics," one that buil t he calls attention to the fact that, aside from celestial 'explicitly on the ,tradition of Comte, SaintiSimonil mechanics,the spectacularlyactuate °empirical FourieVand other; iihthe dualsense of forecasting . . predictions, of Physical scientists typically do not best pne can and theriacting as if the forecasts were, concern "natural" systems (e.g., the weather) but true. This approach, which is.hy far the most important; rather "constigicted" systems (i.e., entirely man -made from ;the point of View of futures research, hasalready,,' representations of systems like the weather),represen- found exuession in a number of articles and books.54;.;. tationi that are, moreover,"fashioned strictly accord- It has also led to the development of a futures-orieoted 1 . . "theory" of social change, involving theuse of a These precepts, while not likely to be acceptql in the "cybernetic-decisional model," the rudiments of which short-term by many sociologists (nor indeed by alt are illustrated in Figure 1.55 The theory is founded on futuresresearchers);rievertheidsreflecta Very the n tion that man's' images of the future, all 'of deliberate turning away from styles and principles long.. varying prability, are central in shaping his bel" fs, dominant in sociology, with their emphasis on wha:t attitudes, a__d values and, in their presence, th se,o ,Mills once called the "sociological conception of fate." images are utterly decisivein the choices he makes.ell This is a view that makes the future the result of And Mau assert that devblopmVtt of such a theory isn "specific kinds of social strucre" operating in such a- appropriate task of socidlogists;:more generally, so are way that any partieulasilistorTEal e,yent is usually to be efforts to promote a ney appreciation and-tiew means viewed as the unforeseeable ':Summary and unintended , ofexploring thefuture.:itfor these changes in result of innumerable. decisions' of innumerable practice and understandi ':l'ifOe'curin sociology and ,,men."57 ibtoughout the social sciededS, some rather profound Manges in attitude must also occur. Thus,. Bell and Incidentally but surprisingly; this turning away does Mau spell out a number of "directives" for the conduct not seem to have involved as yet a basic recognition that sociology can claiinseveral interesting priorities in. of particular social inquiries intended to be "relevant to 4- the future :56 the seriousstudyof future.For example, the sociologist S. Column Gijfillan was not only the first of the moderns to study the accuracy of past predic: I. The object of research should,be.)4elwed.. not as a tion1,56 hewas also apparently the first social scientist staticsystem,but as a dynamic onethat takes its to declare, that long-range, comprehensive social character thrbugh the complex interplay `of past, forecasting would be his lifeit work.59' The interest in %present, and 'future: soeial indicators todaytheir ,derivation anduse1 2. Uncertainties should be acknowledged'and, where fihds its'prime antecedent in William F. OgbUrn's work they, canbedealt :with,should be handled on socjil trends, particularly the 1933 volVmes, Recent probabilistically:- Alternative futures should be SociarTrends in the United Statei.60 Accordingtwo considered. - /Gilfillan, Ogburn may also be creditedA beingone of 3. The investigator should ackNwle,dge that his study the first to call for "the 'establisiiment of a predictive itself somehow affects the future. science."61- MorecAr, Ogburn, Gilfillan, and other 4. Basic sqcial values should be taken into account Collaborators lean fairly be consideredas having done '5. Attention should be paik to apparent conflicts some of the earliest and most important work on the between these social values and what is known), bout social consequences of inventiona line of research hoW society and people actually believe. that relates directly, to today's "technology- 6. The investigator should have an explicit awareness ment."62Skipping'overother contributions in a half- of how his'imSge of thfuttrre (and those of others). centurYi.s development of a futures orientation, \within may affect the study resulis.. sociology. (some ofwhichare mentioned elsewhere in 7. The possibility of _basing projections_ or!com- this hook),.we can see in justhe last degadeadiscipline pariso,ns between past and present states of existing thatas been among the first to deyote Professiohal, systems should be considered. . meetings (in this country and abroad) to the theme of & Theoretical or Other explanatory clivicd* the 41"'future studies, a discipline thathas shown the greatest investigator should be formulated primarilyinterms growth in the number of courses being offeredon the. of 'Concepts thit will lend the results to specific policy°. future;6 a discipline that has provided a number of options. -Emphasis should be shifted froM mere outstanding critics, of social forecasting and futures description to the enumeration of possibilities of research, among them Nisbet, 1-I oos, and Duncan; anal, control. 0 j what is especially noteworthy, a disciplineout;of which 9. Attempts should be made 'where possible to test the has. come the single most influential concept in, future by Carefully staging demonstration projects contemporary futures research: Daniel Bell's postin- (i.e. design a sit-in and try it in one instance to see if dustrial soCiety.64 makes''sense). t0. Use should be made of Wasko4's "possidictiqns"- Without Minimizingtheproblemsofsocial statements about future events thar May have a low forecasting that have jawbeen discussed in the. --probability ceteris, paribus, but can be made to literature,65 some of the sociologists,whoare familiar happen through political action, if the events seem' with both this futures- oriented tradition and the desirable. < writings of the futurists have bdgun..to finceways in b. EXOGENOUS FACTORS (natural and social) HUMAN BIOLOGYJ. THE PHPULATION ,FUtURE THE ECOSYSTEM BECOMES RESOURCES THE TECHNOLOGIES rs. PRESENT ORGANIZATIONAL ,c1 (includes SETTINGS; familial, ,/ g\, unintended as weN eduCational, religious,. as intended protective, political, + consequences). economic, =MI; etc. (C) BELIEFS ABOUT CAUSES" AND EFFECTS INDIVIDUAL VALUES . OR (preforms.: and COLLECTIVE obligations; -evaluations ACTION of A. B, C; 2 hopes and fears) ./ / DECISION-MAKING IMAGES PROCESS OF THE FUTURE; (setting goals and selecting (pessimistic or optimistic in means in light of content beyondor within formulations about relevant human control,' facts, values, .shortor long range.) andexpectations) Produces fairly determinate effect:;` thefts derma upon differential perceptionand evaluation., . From Wendell Bell and James A. Mau, The Sociology of the Fon (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1971), p. 21. Figuril. Cybernetic:decisional model of social thange. . -, .,,,. which futures research and so. 'logycan driw on each ,'2. Iniingle- causeor single key anticipations instead of other's experience and _special strengths. Suzanne patterned, multiplicities., .....,.., 0 Keller, for example, suggests a number of important 3: Insociplogical concepts anclanformationconcerne4 'ways that ,sociologY:On be brought to bear in futures with colledifyities and sO:Cial.structures that helpus sfudies:66 . . , .. toCharacterize' grog's agt-egates. andthe, _qv :modes of / ,, relating'fo epvironnient0,.- heing 'futures researchersto avoidAhe "Robin-, 4. In methods and'measutes of central tendencies. son Crusoe bias"*the undUe'emphasisson what-,5. In methods of . measures;asof typical minorityand , "man" needs. 0 deviant phenomena.' .f -Lm=. . 6. In avoiding,projection from th4 given to eternityif social forecasting has yet cone into existence. Indeed, social scientists tend top!speak as if 'therewere an it is probably fair to say that if someone.finds'hjmself .'eternal past, futurists do likewise withthe future. writing a paper on the same subject ,7 or 10years from 7. In creating awareness of ethnocentrism: research has now, he may well be forced to the same conclusion; at shown how difficult it is forindividuals even when least in so far as social forecasting in the West is trained and intent on biingi unbiased,to succeed' in koncerne.d. this.,Ethnocentrism ''marks'' investigationi preliterate soCieties, studies of the third-world,and The reasons are many, and most of themare discugsionsAtht woman question,among others. discussed in other chaptersof this book. Here, then,,it Eaich is seen tfirollgh the spedallens of males, or may be useful just to review some of the main point's whites,or Certain nationals, There is no reason to made in Duncan's paper, comparing the situationas he subose that this willnot be the case in futurism, saw it'in 1969 with the situation as it looks today. This Unless [futurists] make, a ,special effortto prevent should proiide at least a partial basis for evaluating the this. current status of social forecasting as it isnow being 8. The ways of change: many changes inart, science, practiced in the United States, especially by those and living habits are being forecast by futurists. Few, ' analysts we call "futures researchers" and Duncan calls howeverg pay attention to the phasing orsequence of "futurists." And it should also lay a foundation for change oi- by what steps and mechanisms these will attempting a short-term forecast of social foAcasting. be introduced. Nor do they link these ihangeSto the One of Duncan's first points is that, while &great ways in which' social movements are generated. deal of social forecasting is regularly being performed Keller's vieWis that `lie two fields havepuchto give to implicitly by all Of irs, there is very little indeed that is, eacfl other. 11 nforttinately,::their-pat14cross,,A being conducted explicitlyAan,d,continuous- rarity fOr them to doso effectively," One rust wonder, TOTheltiera fiittgreiffi-inteleffdifire, then, why the pathsdo not cross more often. As this. businesi, or technological forecasting. Thiswas trim review may, suggest, thereason does not lie in any then and remains true now, as pointed out iii.Chapter absence of responsible, relevant, and recent work by 1. Mbreover, the inclinations and priorities of those sociologists. who fund such work have not changed significantly over this interval. Thus, the absolute level of sustained explicit work -has undoubtedly risen, but the 'relative 4 The State-of-the-Art in mix of .arkiiids of forecasting probably hasnot Social Forecasting changed importantly. Social forecastingper se surely remains one of the smaller categories of. serious "A 'state of the art' report on social forecasting professional interest. Greater emphasis still fallson should, in all honesty, be quite brief. Suclranart, in the generating the kinds of forecasts that are 'presumedto sense of a coherent body of perftrand practices, has have the greatest value in decisi5rirriaking, such,as not yet bean developed." These ardithe opening technological or maKet foiecasts. , sentences, and the conclusion, of an importantpaper . written in 1969 by Otis Dudley Duncan on the state-of- Unfortunately,mostpeople,includin most the-art of social forecasting67apaper that remains fofecasters, still do not know howto establis the linksAbly. important because Duncan's conclusion still holds betWeen social forecasting and planning a d between today. Many changes have, ofcourse, occurred in Manning and .decisionmaking. Until re is known social forecasting (and all other kinds of forecasting) about thiS, and until this knowledge more widely since then, as indicated, in part, by the preceding shared, it is likely that sOcjal forecas ng will continue review. o4developments inpoliticalscience and to come out near the bottoniin.1 ivecomparisons.. sociology. Accordingly, a ntubber of Duiccan!s specific The absolute growth in the nberof efforts itc ,NO observations -are no longer accurate,or relevant or any case, the significant fact, ev :though most of these ssignificant.qo the extent'that the ktate-of-tte-art,has studies have had no impact. re and there experience changed,itappears; on balance,that .these is beginning fo accumulate and social forecastersare developments represent an advance. (Forone thing, as beginning to set their iIlectual .hotiek in 'order., many as 60 percent of social forecasters now seem to Among other things, thi is comingslowly-4o mean have learned how to veil the word. "holistic.") But, a clearer recognition of basic principles and basic) generally speaking, it is clear that no/hing approaching Iiiiations. For ex.pig, -Joseph Coates writes that an established art, Much less an established sciences-of .characteristi of holistic thinking " he isspeak- . . 9 ing about te-chnology assessment, a kind of social ditions may have rendered them less valuable or forecastingi"is-that we do not know how to do it even false. One consequence of this pitfall is that routinely; secondly, it almost certainly cannot be done forecasters are led thereby to inore alternative routinely; and thirdly,itis not a scientific or an futures that may-become significant. Duncan engineering or a disciplinary enterprise. It is essentially cites as an illustration the then common belief art art form." b8 among demographers that the population would continue to rise throughout the rest of the century Duncan admits one branch of social forecastinl that in this country, and he asks, with great foresight,j, might properly be said to have reached the status °flan "$hquld they not, at the same time, startnow td alidemographic forecasting. 11.eviewing the results state the'demographic conditions under which a of such forecasts over the past 40-50 years gives him the stationary state can be reached and chart-for us qpportunity to point out several pitfalls that have arisen in this area and are likely to exist in other some alternative time paths to that state, however unlikelyifor the moment] such -a prospect may domains of social forecasting. Among the difficulties seem?"72 he mentions, or quotes with approval from others, are the following six: Finally, forecasters tend not only to fall in love with their own forecasts and with the assump- First, social forecasters are inclined to be biased tions on which.they are based, but they also teed, ' -in theie-projectiortsOF in the 'very choice of at times,-to focup'exclusively on the elegance or mechanics of 111-e. methods they are usingi . subjects to forecastby their own personal, especially if they i vented these methods. The -- untested convictions about how the-future may be k. Onsequence, of cWse, is that tliey not only lose expected to develop.6 , 1 sight of what they are doing, but they become les SeCOV,forecasters have qt beena courageOus -asiqheF-shouldiVe.vin,gresi andscf orn itnagi native 'in .the proclesS. clients to mak forecasts in.areas{{reas wherethey Now, taken together, ijiese know full well that forecasts "cannet be reliably itfalls tells as much . about -human nature in general as they tell us about. made." , Third,forecasters have shown a tendency. tb forecasters. Yet these weaknesses have characterized become x enamoredof their Own forecasts, the practice asocial forecasting in the past and they do gradually ignoring or forgetting- allof the 'seem to represent harriers to any serious possibility or inevitable uncertainties or the full range of -advancing social forecasting, even if we all agree that it ignorance on 'which these forecasts rest. Worse is "essentially an art." Moreover, anyone familiar with yet, outside forces often reinforce this tendency. thelstate of that art today would 41ave to admit that all As Duncan puts it, "Whenthe forecaster sees his of these pitfalls are still with us. If anything, they may be intensifying, as suggested' at the beginning of this results -being adopted in many quarters and hears chapter. Af bottom, the greatest threat to fuiiires them coping back tb him in the form of economic. anticipations and the like, he can hardly resist the research is its tendency toward provincialism, a point temptations to believe. "70 that Duncan makes very gently.when he introduces his Fourth, forecasters 'have shown an inclination to readers to De Jouvenal's Art of Conjecture by saying be biased towardconservatism by their desire to that, while De'Jouvenal is deft and witty and appear scientific or "responsible." Duncan quotes his book contains little that would not already onof the great pioneers of social forecasting, the known to "a moderately well-read professional social sociologist William Ogburn, as saying, "try as we scientist." may to ptrevent wishful thinking, there is nothing Futures researchers tend to pride themselveson : so effectiveas plenty of data to correct it. But in having "escaped" the individual, established dis- cases -of scarcity of data, one way of trying to cipt nes. Their work, they say, is."crosscliisciplinary" or / reducts the error is to redtice the emotional "multidisciplinary"as indeed it is and must be.. But 9 element' in thinking." Yet this can lead Ahei: they forget that the individual disciplines have rnucti to forecaster, as' Ogburn indicates, to submit to. teach, especially about the need, to, be,' modest. As Yocial presiureS. that unduly discourage un- Kenneth Bouiding,once pointed Out, 'iconventionalthinking: . Fifth, forecasters exhibit a tendency. not to, At the moment neither our theoretical stitictures, question disuiriptions that hAe proved useful. in nor our inferences, nor our predictionsonor our 'earlier projections; even though changed con: perceptual apparatus and instrumentation in the 9 social' sciencesare in any way adequate lo measure seven years, there are no longer many who would agree up to the comprexity of the social system. . .We ;with Duncanor who,. at least, would- state the are using salt spoons to-clear away snow driftiand conclusion with Such finality.. After all,systems readinggrassesto , study .thestructureof anilysir and :futures 'researeh,.inpure concept, molecules.23 implicitly deny thisconclusion,- and the whole technology assessment movement is explicitly premis- 9f this is true for the social sciences, how much truer it ed on the notion that it is false. . Must also be for social forecasting and futures research:- generally. He:ice the need to overcome parochialism To put baldly: what means is that we have by systematically, and vigorously exploitingiwhatever decided to ignore the plain: facts -and ttry to perform is known in the established disciplines.. such analyses, even thbrigh the effortall; be shown to be absurd in theory. More preciselytwe have decided The point takes on special, meaning in view of .that the questions at stake in system analysis, futures Duncan's review of the work by William Ogburn on research, and technology assessment are too important sgtiar trends (what we would today call °social not to warrant our experimenting With the "derivative,/ . indicators) and on the social effects of invention. in effects" scheme in order to learn! how far it can be discu4ing Ogburn'sanalysisof theimpact of pushed in practice and how valuable the resultsymay technological innovation on social change, Dunlan be,-even if limit4d. recalls Ogbuin's recommendation that such Studies e conducted accqrding to the following sequence. st, It theheart of all hree` o these approaches investigate pd ible a plicationsof the invention- nd systems inalyiis, futures research, and technology 'then the direc chap es in indryidual or ix stitutiOnal assessment is the notion that problems must be seen behavior thawoul,attend the adoption of the in iheit entirety, through time, knd that it is no longer lc, invention. Next, explore the effects that would follow adequatefOlOok at economic, demographic, legal, in the swakevof these direct changes. Then examine the poVical, sociological, cultural,- or technological and effects of these effects, and so on, until the entire string scientific changes r1 isolation from enranother. As it of consequeneeslaas been identified and evaluated. happens his is an issue on which some progress seems, This, of course, was the'first expression of the essential to have &en made in the past few years, for at several idea behind what is now called' "technology assess- points throughout his essay, Duncan urges his readers ment." who &re social forecasters to adopt a wider, more comprehensive perspective: f`The analytic or 'projec- In commenting on this idea, which he applauds in tion model must take account df the interactions of theory, Duncan failstoanticipate ourpresent population, environment,technology, and social willingness to live with imperfection, and so makes a organization."75 This is'hvhat:he calls "an ecological mistake. He points out,' rightly, that only rarely can all approach" to socialforecasting, and iis interesting to aspects 'of a social'dhange be traced uniquely to the hole that he was exidently not very confident that influence of a single physical technology; anything the anyone would listen to him-i-Terhaps they did.notf technology touches, whether it be the family or society_ for at one point, he cdmments On the futitre of social at large, is simultaneously being affected by other forecasting by saying: "One answer to our question, forces, most of whichare more important in explaining `What_nextr is, therefore, more of the same.776 . the total change. He'also observes, again rightly, that .. the prOceis of identifying and exaluating all of the Recalling that most of today's social foreeisters igher=order effects of a technology will surely involve:. 'have now adapted an outloOk, similar teDuncan's an endless and totally unassessable network of "ecological approach," and taking account of the fact linkage's. Gilfillan once said that as the analyst starts that some interestiltgarsi important innovations -in- out boldly. through the network, he "shortly finds that methodology' haveoccurredsince 1969; the -Same the effort is -not worth Making" because he soon question"What next?" Can probably be answered' . reaches that poi.nt.-where 'the ;effects are simply in the same way for 'social forecastinitoday. What we unmanageable because their number is so large and see now is essentially what we will continue to see in the their impacts are so attenuated. Duncan's conclusion, next five to six'yearS.The'prospect appearS toinclude; first of all, a continued and substantial fellanCe on .. - t4heh,is. That "quiteapart frorhitstheoretical' older methods of forecaliing, such as scenario-writing,... merit.. .the concept of derivative effects ofinVetnt4Ons . and simulation modeling; plus occasional and usually cannot be-a powerful tooliinlorecasting."74 , . litirtied, efforts to improve the, exist; t newer. In fact, as forecasting has developed over the last methodsuch as cross- impact analysis, the ierview , . ,.. - - ) 61 ..-, . Delphi, trend impact analysis, and probabilistic system tion" among social asters of "the extent to which dynamics.. futurist inquiry is in fact governed by explicit and . communicable methods."81 In short, we should see a To Duncan, it seemed that the methods he saw in use in 1969 were little different friim those used M the greater modesty accompanied by a greater honesty. 1920's and 1930's by Ogburn. He judged that the future Duncan's paper ends with a final overall "forecast of of social forecasting would likely be jeopardized if [social] forecasting." His last paragraph reads: "There "students of the futurist movement Railed] to analyze will be no pretense that we can gradually move toward the basic methodological questions that are the perfection of methods of anticipating what will raised byfi concerted effort to see 4head."" The need actually occur, for such perfectibility is not logically litarefullyieinains. This book' alone, Makes the airgutrietit,but possible, esthetically appealing, or morally inspiring. $1 there are other sources that do so as well.78 What we may hope to improve, if not perfect, is our The general prospect also appea-rs to include a sense of responsibility for making known the im- continued shaking out of social forecasters who are plications of our knowledge."82 The .yeats, since 1969 amateurs, . dilettantes, and mere enthusiasts; and a have belied both othese statements. Social forecasters leveling Off or absolute decline in tttotal number of have not discernibly improved their sense of respon- sibility for hiaking known the implicates of their i organizations that practice futures research. Com- knowledge. there actually is room for unproveinent ,. plementing these changes may be a corresponding rise .. here, we might at least- Still continue to hopl. 1 inprofessional standards. and professionalism.If Additionally, social forecasters have not; as far as one , futures researchers work at, we may see fe'wer claims can , tell, given up their goalor isiit ) that this kind of precasting is something totally new, really a # "pretense"?of gradually moving toward a perfection , which of course it is not. And as the number falls of of methods' of anticipating what will actually occur. : persons IvIumford calls the "one- generation minds" in the futures business, we should also see the beginnings Nor, 1the sante token, have theygiven up the belief . of-sow serious historical research on the origins of that the entire art of social forecaSting can be improOed futurist ideas --a teed that Duncan described as over time, just as Ogburn and Gilfillan and many "urgent" in 1969,79 and which is no less so today. others have argued for 50 years and more.83 It teems clear now that noTtitiireslesearcher will abitndon these - aspirations., Equally clear, however, is that mere Further, wee should see a wider recog,nition that".wishful thinking will no longer be a satisfactory guide forecasting and futures research involve the study of to the internal development of the field. The individual the )(Inure, and not, as Duncan observed in 1969,an disciplines need.to be studied carefully, exploited, and opportunity toassume "a rhetorical' stancefor then, perhaps, discarded-rafter the case has been made discussing present social concerns. "80 We should also that true cross-disciplinary sociar-forecasting is a sec, less of .what Duncan desctibed as the "exaggera- , genuine possibility. s < a I. bi I 1 62 , FOOTNOTES ... Needlessto say, unless government or the foundations "Basically I did not organize the armed forces in order not to strike. underwrite the costs, these resources can only be derived from fees The decision to strike was always in me." [Quoted in Office of United earned on contracts, grants, or products. 1f fees alone are the south, States Chief Counsel for Prosecution of AXis Criminality, Nazi major changes can come only very slowly. Conspiracy and Aggression: Opinion and Judgment (Was ington, 2 Proclamation at the 1934 NSDAP Congress in Nurenberg, as D.C. ; IJ,SIGOvernment Printing Office, 1947), p. 19.] quoted in William L. Shirer. The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich 9 Bracher, pp. cit.,,p. 296. - (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1960), p. 230. 10 Edward Hallett Carr, The Twenty Years' Crisis. 191 -1939: An 3 An on-the-spot evaluation was provided by Shirer, whotreezily Introduction to the Study .of International Relations (London: dismissed it as simply one of many "lies," and who wondered why Macmillan& Co. Ltd 1951), p. vii. With Europe literally on theeve "such, statements [could be] widly applauded as if they werenew of war, Carr speculates with his readers that there may be a law truths." See William L. Shirer, Berlin Diary (New York: Alfred A. governing the maximum possible size of political and economic units Knopf. 1941), p. 19. (e.g.. nations or blocs), and he asserts that this issue is "Odrhaps likely Karl Lowenstein. Hitler's Germany: The Nazi Background to be more decisive than any other for the course of world history in to War (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1939), p. 20. the next few generations" (p. 230). Not only was the.empliasisa bit 5 In the best study yet made of Mein Kampf. Werner Maser misplaced in focusing on this question; but at least part of the observes that "from [December] 1926, when Volume 2 was assumption about concentration on Which it rested was apparently published, it was very easy to see what could be expected should false. See Bruce M. Russett, Is Therea Long-Run Trend toward littler come to power" (italics added). See Werner Maser, Hitler's Concentration in the International System? Paper P -3666 (Santa Mein' Kampf An Analysis (London: Farber and Farber, 1970),p: Monica: The RandCorporation, 1967).' i 119; cf. also p. 201. 400'7 II Robert A. Nisbet,"Postscript: June 1971" in Albeit Somit (ed.), 6 Proclamation at the 1234 NSDAP Congress, as quoted in Karl Political Science and the Study of the Future (Hinsdale, Ill.: The Dietrich Bracher, The German Dictatorship (New YOrk: Praeger Dryden Press, 1974), p. 27. A "genuinely scientific" prediction, Publishers, 1970), p. 246. according to Nisbet. is an atempqral statement of "casual effect on As a matter of fact, Hitler had made roughly the same forecast the basis of. . .prior and certain intelligence thathe requisite more than once as, for example, in his speech on June 17, 1934: "This antecedent] conditions prevail" (p. 277). Similarly, hough not as state is in its first youth, and younaibe sure that in a thousand years critics of futures research, Klaus Knorr and Oskar Morgenstern: in itwill stand unbroken" [as quoted in Konrad Heiden, Der Fueher their generally insightful paper, li,olitical Conjecture in Military (Boston: Houghton Mufflin Company, 1944), p. 752]..This milder Planning. Pblicy Memorandum No. 35 (Princeton, N.J.: Center of form of statement probably reflects HitleekkaCk of control; after all, hiternational Studies, Prince'ton University, 1968), observe' that on the slime day, Von Papen, theiiee chancellor, was delivering his "During tiecentrcleeades:the United States has become involved in famous anti-Nazi speech at the University of Marbui.. Iii 4 any case, it four important wars, [Which] United States involvementwas 'stile declaration of attainability that is important, as Hitler himself predictable, or predicted with any degree of confidence, especially at suggested in and by his speech of.linuary 30, 1941, in Berlin: "Many the official level, even five yeah ahead, let alone ten or fifteen years? years ago, in Rein Kampfl said that National Sociali§m will put its None of them was" (p. 10). These authors go even further. Working stamp on the next thousand years of German history." [See Franklin backward to 1907 from 1967, they divide the past into fifteen-year Watts (ed.), Voicei of History: Great Speeches and Papers of the 'intervals, and ifin each they list (on p. 11) a number .of "major Year 1941 (New York: Franklin Watts, Inc." p. 68]. politico-mili events that occurred daring each period but were Incidentally, in the same speech (pp, 61-62), Hitler also said, "When not predictedand not predictable, at, its beginntg." Among.the. we came to power in 1933 our road was clearly mapped an.. . Mji events foi the riod begintiOng in 1937 are (1) the war and (2) its programme [in foreign affairs] was to do away with Versailles.' "configuratioand outcome "Their argument Why such events are People all over the wild should not efetend to be simpletons and act "unpredictabl is identical, in the end, to Nisbet's, but it should be as if I only discovered 'this programme in 1933; or 1935: or 1937. noted that they scrap the reason for making the argument at all when-- Theee gentlemen shottld only have read what I wrote aboa'rhyself a .'they introduce thenotion of conjecture ("reasoned inference from thousand times." Unfortunately for the. world, "every one of our 'admittedly defective evidence") and assert that "there is no sharp prophecies was laughed at; every statenlent was 'represented as dividing line betweenconjeeture and prediction"(p. 19). On the issue ridiculous, every picture of the future described 'as a fantastic of confident predictions by high officialsSee footnotes 19 and 22, as chimera" (p. 65). ' well as the memoirs of other actors in these developments. °Consider,forexample, the remarkable conversation of i7 Highly reeresentative ate the slashing referencesto the' press in Septelitber 12, 1932, between Hitler and Kurt' Ludecke, which Hitler's brilliantspeech tothe Reichstagon AT 28t 1939, among repoits Hitler to have said Can I.. .foOl those gentlemen abroad them the folloWing (the reference at the end is t the Orson Wellesa. ..for any length Of time [after coming to power]?.. .will I be ableto broadcast of War of the.-Worfekiil October 1938); "The reason for rearm Germany before they get on to me anrstrike at mewitlta this fear [of war]'lies simply and solely in an unbridled agitation on` .ppreventive war? That depends largely, I suppose, on whether they thepart of the press, an agitittioa that is as mendacious as it is baseln .12. have the leadership and guts to strikeifhey can get thepeople to the Circulation of vile palmplilets about the heads of foreign states, go to war ailin,.and that! doubt. [Meanwhile] I can talk peace, but and in an artificial spreading of panic whichin thend goesso, tar mean war." [Set' KUrt G; W. Ludecke, I Knew 'Hitler (New York: that interVenOns from foreign planets are believed possible and Charles Seribner's Soria, 1937), pp. 457, 468.] As Hitler put it in a, cause scenes, of desperate alarm." If the foreign press were -ccinferehce with hiSinilitary commanders on November 29, 1939, controlled, Hitler went on, "the fear of war will d appear at once." , a 4 Ntn . r [See International Conciliation,No. 351 (June 327.] ' The West Decline?(1966); and Gladwyn Jebb,Halfway to 1984 13Sisley Huddleston,War Unless...(Philadelphia: J. B. Lippin- (1966)all, coincidentally, from'Columbia golversity Press in New - cott Company, 1934). York. Why such books receivelittle attention, in or outside of the 14 Ibid., p. 65. social sciencts, is somewhat of a mystery; it is certainly true that 13 Mid.,p. 266. much of the futures literature is no less thin, physically or otherwise. a 16 Ibid.,pp. 281-282. Cf. the, impressions of Paul ,Seabury, "Practical International 17Leland Stowe,Nazi MeansWiii(Nev/York: Whittlesey House, 'Futures," in Somit, op. cit., pp. 279-291. McGraw.Hill Bopk Company, Inc., 1934). 32Karl W. Deutsch, "Quantitative, Approaches to Politicala IS Ibid.,p. 121. Analysis: Some Past Trends and Future Prospects," in Hayward R. 19 Ibid.,pp. 124125. Stoiveincludesieurnalisti and politicians in Alker, Jr., Karl W:: ,Deutsch,- and Antoine-tH. 4,1toetzel (eds.), 'this summation. Mathematical Approaches to Politics(San Francisco: Jossey-Bass,. 20 Sto7.ve,ibid..pp., 14:4;;At2.. , Inc., 1973),tp. 10./ n For example, Lowenstein,op. cit.,pp. 171-172. -33His other.suggestions about research are (I) undertakelarge- n Sietie,op. cit.,p. 140. The then U.S. Secretary of State, Cordell scalesimulations of highly developed countries (the-data on these Hull, recalls that "in my first year in the State Department [1933) 1 countries being rich and very current, these models would offer some had no doubts as to Hitlerite Germany's intentions and capabilities. .promise of ,makingp political science more of an experimental- But, had 1 had any, the events of 1934 and the first half of 1935 would , activity); (2) undertake simulations of the less-developed countries have completely removed them."'Hull told the German Ambassador or of important sub- 'or supranational units; (3) develop "genuine on Noveinber 2, 1933, that "a general war dtiring the next two to ten cybernetic models," particularly of systems and processes that are years seems more probable than peace," and he advised the President largely autonomous; (4) develop mord and better data, both original from 1934 on to implement programs to ensure U.S. stockpiles of and de 'ved, for use in model building (special attention being paid- strategic materials. See Cordell Hull,Memoirs(New York: The to data relevant to quality of life, personal well being, etc.); (5) Macmillan Company, 1948), Vol. I, pp. 242, 231, 624. develop queuing theory-for use .in tackling even such "core 23Drew Pearson andConstantine grown,The American probe" of political science as the questions of freedom and Diplomatic Game(Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, Doran, and power; ( ) undertake major extensions of game theory; (7) continue Company, Inc, 1935). work on stochastic process models ("drift models"), including 24 Ibid..p. 378. further development of transitional probability matrices; and (8) 23 Ibid., p..395. extend 'preliminary work in the combining of cybernetic and drift 26John Herman Randall, Jr.,Nature and Historical Experience: models. Deutsch, in Alker, Deutsch, and Stoetzel,Mid..pp. 25-55. Essays in Naturalism and in the. Theory of History (New York: . 14 Deutsch, in Alkir, Deutsch, and Stoezel,ibid.,p. 56; ,, Columbia University Press, 1958), p. 44. ,33 Ibid.,pp. 57; 60. - 27 It could be argued that essentially the sane analysis that led 36It should be emphalited, perhaps, that Deutsch does not doubt Stowe to forecast World War II could' have been used to forecist that a pseful world model can be built. Similarly, it has been argued wars like the Korean oneor the Middle East conflict of 1973. It that "the ultimate method of prediction [tit political soiiiice would probably have failed, however, in forecasting Vietnam, through] the .employment.of comprehensive general'explivaa tory-, though an approach like Huddleston's might have worked, Indeed, theory.. .of the politiial system'and its environment or of the social using a comparable method; the British Royal Institute for system within which the political *Wein resides? ..'.Once we have a- International Affairs accurately forecasted in 1963-that thewar in, general theory. . .our 'predictions or forecasts would.be comprehen- Vietnam would last "at least another ten years.wf See "victory in S. sive, accurate, and credible." See David V. Edwards, =ethical Vietnam Believed 10 Years Away,"-Los Angeles Times(October 7, Forecasting," in James R. Bright and Miln E. F. Schoethan (eds.), 1963), p. 231 We might conclude, therefore,"that the Huddleston Technologicar Forecasting,"(Canogay. , Calif.: XYZYX Infor- appioach is the more general of the two. mationCorporation;1970), pp. 437 and 439. Deutsch certainly 23TIE energy crisis may have prompted the beginnings of such would not go so far; moreover, other students would;-'of course, disfusiron.Time*magazine, for example, opines inablistering questionthe entire undertaking. "Essiit" that the Arab oil boycott could easilyhave been forecasted 37A random sample: Lincoln P. Bloomfield,Western Europe,' arid cites some evidence and a number of predictions to support this 1965-75: five Scenarios(Cambridge, Mass.: MIT, 1%5);-Alastair. assertion [see:hat Went Wrong,"Time(December 10973), pp. BuCtr'n'. led:),Europe's Futures, Europe's Chokes: Models of '49c50].Time wfar front being alone in this. 4t. Western F.strodpc In the 1970's(New Yoi : Columbia University 29 PhillipO. Foss, "Policy Analysis and the Political'Science Press, 069); T: W. Milburn and J. F.ilburn, "Predictions loc, Profession,"Po ludas Journal, Vol. 2, No'. I (Autumn 1973),R., Threats and Beliefs about Hot To eet Them,"American 68. Itt.saying-this, Foss distinguishes between a profession and it-; Ilehavibral Scientist,'Vol. 9, No. 7 (March 1966), pp. 3-7; Wayne `discipline. Wilcox;forecasting Asian 'Snwgic Environments for National 30Foss,op. cit.,p. 69. A "preference model" forecast of the Security , Decisionmaking: A 12;?toieoartd a Method,Rand - profession sees these and other difficulties removed (and replaced by Memoran'dum RM-6154-PR (Santa Monica, -The!.Rand others) by 1990, assuming that political scientists adopt a policy Corporation,1970); Johan Galtung,..."On the''''Future of the science orientation. See Harold D. Lasswell, ."The Future of'International System," in 'Franklin Tugwell(ed.),Scorch Yor;:4,2' Orofessional.PoliticatSeientists," in Somit,Political Science and the Alternativesi Pith& Policy and the Studyof the Future(46 mpridge, 'Studs) of the Futurripp. 246-254. Mass.: Winthrop Publishers, Inc., 1973); pp. 226-259; Ithiel.de Sola 31Excluded here ate those occasional thin books which have to do Pool, "The International System4,44e Next :Half Century,'ts with the future of the very largest of polifiCalaffairs,vually foreign 12aedalus,Vol, 96, No.31Summer 1967), pp. 930-935; Zbigniew but ghich seem to be allowed to fall quickly from the press Brezinski,Between Two Ages: America's Role In the Technetronic into oblivion, hoWever insightful they may in fact be. Examples that Era(:New Yea: Viking Press 1970); Rudolf Rummel, "Forecasting Come to hand ad Robert 13Owip,Shaping the 'Future: Foreign International Relations,"Technological Forecasting and. Social Policy in an AO of Transition*(1964);David Ormsby -Gore,Must Change,Vol. 1 (1969), pp. 196-226;.4ames A. Dator, "Political Futuristics Toward the Study of Alternative Political F,utures," in today, except as indicators of change in the field., Specific new David Plath (ed ), Aware of Utopia University of techniques for specific applications are described and advocated in Illinois Press, 1971); and the important antholo, Harvey S. Perloff me" lik"e4Yehekel Dror's "The Prediction of Political Feasibility," (ed ), The Future of the United States Government (New York: Fthieres, Vol. 1, No. 4 (June 1969), pp. 282-288, and Olaf Helmer's George Braziller, 1971) These items are cited because they are The Use of Expert Opinion in International-Relations Forecasting intrinsically interesting (and handy, as this is being written); they (Los Angeles, Calif.. Center for Futures Research, University of certainly do not, however, exemplify all of the approaches that have Southern California, July-1973). Paralleling in many ways the world been taken by persons within the 'field. For additional and more model goal of Deutsch are comprehensive study recommendatipns systematically organized referen et, see the bibliographies in the for domestic political forecasting. see in particular the several works cited in footnote 42. Is proposals by Dror, especially "Alternative Domestic ,p;.olitical 3' These range fro use of systematic and quasi-theoretical Futures: fibsearch Needs and Research Design," Futures, Vol. 2, schemes for organize the material of politil science to nove No. 4 (December 1970), pp. 30i-30. Dror's statement of research approachesforbri gingthe views of theclassicpolit. nee& for this task can be subsumed under Deutsch's list, (see philosophers into focus on contemporary issues Two examples of footnote 33), though he emphasizes the necessity of further research the former are Paul T. David, "Analytical Approaches to the Study on judgmental matrix techniques. of Change," Public Administration Review (Summer 1966), pp. 160- 42 The most important of these is Nazli Choucn and Thomas 168, and Norman Uphoff, "Integrating Policy Studies into Political Robinson (eds.),Forecasting inInternational Relations (San Science," PolicAgtudies Journal, Vol. I, No 4 (Summer 1973). The Francisco. Freeman, in press). Despite itstitle this volume is latter is discussed in Harlan J Strauss, "east, Present, Future. A pertinent to all areas of political science, covering as it does not only New Curriculum for Introductory Courses in Politica) Science," the international problems, but also basic issues of the nature of paper presented at theAnanal Meeting of the American Political forecasting, the choice of methods, the problem of validation, and so Science Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, September 4-8, 1973. on.Another important volume, one whichlays, stresson As political science seeks to become more of a science, and as it technological as well as political, social, and economic issues in becomes embued with more of a futures orientation (especially in the forecasting, is Klaus P. Heiss, glaus Knorr, and Oskar Morgenstern, classroom), there are dangers, of course, of confusing mere Long Term Projections of Power (Cambridge, Was.: Ballinger "relevance" with a policy orientation. This idea figures in Fred Kort, Publishing Company, 1973). This volume Surveys "yower" in all of "The Multiple Dilelisma of Political Science," Modern Age, Vol. 16, its dimensions and offers a critical review oPmethods of forecasting No. 1 (Winter 1972), pp. 15-24. it. Basic anthologies that cut through much of the earlier literature 39 See Yehezkel Dror, Futures in Government, Paper P-3909 are those by Somit and Tugwell (both cited earlier). 4.(Santa ,Monica, Calif.. The Rand Corporation, 1968); ToddRA.a' 43 Bertrand de Jouvenel, "Political Science and Prevision," The Porte, "Politics and 'Inventing the Future'. Perspectives in Sae* American Political Science Review, Vol. LIX, No. I (March 1965), and Government," Public Administration Review, Vo. 27, No 12 pp. 29-38. (1967), pp. 117-127; and lames A. Dator,.Comments on the Hawaii a If the ,willy-nilly juxtaposition of literature from political Senate's Seminar on Planning, Working Paper 3 (Honolulu: theory, international relations, American politics, comparative Program in Futures Research, 'University .of Hawaii, 1973). An politics, public administration, and other areas in this survey were argument for retaining the older intuitive and largely rionfutures .reorganized/by Category., the grounds for making an estim te would oriented style is given by Hedley Bull, "International Theory: The be somewhat dearerthough perhaps more dismal, eStcept in O Case ftir a Classical Approach," World Politics Vol:18, No. 3, (April international relations. 1966) pp. 361-377; jmpl. fitly at least, it finds earlier expression in 43 Karl F. SclAessler,,"Predicti on," International Encyclopedia of George Allen Morgan,"tanning in Foreign Affairs: The State of the Socia( Sciaes (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1968), the A rt,"_,F:ifeign Affairs.01. 39, No. 2 (January 1961),,pp. 271-278, Vol. 12, p,, 423. He cites Comte's ,!.'savoir pour prevoir" in this where a need is declared fo "new ideas in preparing for future," but connection. On this and other matters discussed in this section, see the.tools recommended fo the purpose are (1) the planner's "own also the same author's "Continuities in Social Prediction," in quajkies of mintiAnd exper nce," (2) active practice in the conduct Herbert L. Costner (ed.), Sociological Methodology (New York: of glitical affairs, (3) conversation vith others; (4) documents; and Jossey=13ass, 1971), pp. 302-320' _ (5) forrrial consultation with other experts. Ironically, Morgan's 4 Bernard Berelson, Acton-: In Population and in article is followed in the same issue of Foreign Affairs by Frankli General,"in Arthur. B, S it (ed), Sociology in Action Lindsay's "Program Planning: The Missing Element" (p -296), (Homewood, Ill.: The DorseyJets, 1966), as reprinted in U.S. which demonstrates that even on the program level inforeign affairs, House of Representatives, Research and Technical= rograms the United States was then doing an "inadequate job" of planning Committee of the Committee on Government Operations, The else "because we are not anticipatin'g sufficiently our needs for these of Social Research in Federal Domestic Pr ogang:(Washington, instruments of policy execution." ac.: U.S. Go'vernment Printing-Office, April 1967), Vol. III, p. 518. 40 Notably, Bertram Gross, "Friendly Fascis,m: A Model for In its various manifestations, the conflict highlIghted here can be AniericiR Social Policy (Noveinber-Decernbehl970), reprinted in traced back to the founders of modern sociology. For example, Tugwell, op. cit., pp. 287-361. 40,tobservelhe characterizatiomby LazarSfeld (following-Joseph Lottin) 41 This tendency, like sjmilar tendencies'rn other disciplines,:seems 61 the different images of 4e. idcial,,,sciences held by the e to begin in the context of systems analysis; se.e,ilor example; David contemporaries Comte and Quetelet: "Comte was trying to derive Easton,A Systems )InalysLrof Political Life(iklew York: John Wiley , from history broaddeveloprhental trends which could be projected &_ Sons, Inc., 1964). General reviews of futures research andher intothefliture, white Quetelet was bent on finding precise methods are given in Edwards, 1,p. cit and StuaEt Greenb g, regularities which could help explain the contemporary social Forecasting in International Relations, Staff qiscussion paper 7 scene." See PaulF.Lazarsfeld, "Notes on theHistory of (Washington, D C.: Program of Policy Studies in &tierce and `Quantification in SociologyTrends, Sources, and Problems,"in Technology, The George Washington University, June 1 70); 'Harry Woqlf (ed.), Quantification: A History of the Meaning of because of their generality and bitvity, mar-Papers are of little value Measur ment in the Natural and Social Sciences Indianapolis, No. se. 65 14 The Bobbs-Merril Company, Inc., 1961), pp. 147-203; the qu'Otation need and social valuesin his, "Utopia Construction and Future is from p. 169. . Forecasting: Problems, Limitations, and Relevance," in Wendell " James Fennessey, "Some Problems and Possibilities in Policy- Bell and James A. Mau (eds.), The Sociology of the Future: Related ,Socia Research," Social Science Research, Vol. 1, No. 4, Theories, Cases, and Annotated Bibliography (New York: Russell (December, 1972), p,, '367. Against this background, Fennessey '1"Sage Foundation, 1971);"pp. 78-105. recommends that sociologists begin to experiment with the use of a 54 Two such books are Wendell Bell and James A. Man, The Bayesian approach to some important types of problems. Sqciology of the Future (New York: Russell Sage Foundation,1971) -" Richard P. Applebaum, Theories of Sonia! Change (Chicago, and the anthology edited by Arthur Harkins, 1972 American III.: Markham Publishing Company, 197057pp., The SociolOgical Association Sethinar on the Sociology of the Future quotation from Talcott Parsons is from his The Social tem(New (Minneapolis, Minn.: Office for Applied Social Science and the York: The Free Press, 1951), p. 534. Robert Bierstedt points out in Futur; University of.Minnesota, 1972). ,' . I another context that sociologists "have/agreat many taxonomies, 55 II and Mau, op.cit.,e. 21. Perhaps it should be said that the but we have a dearth of casual propositions. khis is the most Gybe concept embodied in this model derives frcnq the work of _ embarrassing thing we confVont. One of the things we ask ourselves Karl D:eDeutsch; utsc h fand th e emphasis on "images," from Frederik Polak once and awhile is: Do you have any kiwi, any principles, any . and HaroldLasswell. See the, bibliography in this book for universal propositions in sociology? The answer is thatwe do not." references:. Later on, it should be said, he adds, I conceive of sociology...as a 56 The !Pi that foiows is paraphrased from Bell and Mau, op. cit., humanistic discipline, not onlya scientific one. I would judge [an] pp. 29-37. essayist approach in terms of the cogency of its argument. [An]' 57 C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War Three (New York: important illustration [is] Max Weber's thesis. I submit toyou that Simon and Schuster, 1958), pp. 12-13. Mills rejects this idea, of no one knows whether it is true or false. We judge it in terms of its course, as forcefully as tract-writing permits; he argues: "What men "Jae cogency." Quoted from James C. Charlesworth (ed.), Integration-of- * might become, what kinds of societiesmen miAbt buildthe answers the Social Sciences through Polity:. eAnblysis, Monograph 14 to such questions are neither closed nor inevitable. Yet.. .the ends of (Philadelphia, Pa.: The American AC my of Political and Social which men might !ream are consigned to 'merely utopian fantasy.' Science, October 1972); pp. 160,-221-222. *In the meantime, virtuallyall images of the futurefrom Aldous " Cf. 'F. Machlup, "The Inferiority Complex of the Social Huiley's to George Orwelli=have become images of sociological Sciences,",in M. Sennholz (ed.), ton Freedom and Free Enter'prise honor, and 'pragical action' has been usurped by frightened and (Princeton, N.J.: Van Nostrand, 1956), pp. 161-172, and A. Mazur, unimaginative mediocrities... .What 'practical men of affairs' do The Littlest Science,' American Sociologist, Vol. 3 (August 1968), not face up to isnhe fact that 'politics' has to do*with the willful pp. 195 -200. The sociology of knowledge, to say nothing of the social making of history. The enlargement and the centralization of,the sciences generally, might benefit from an anaylsis of this theme of means of history-making signify that, for better or worse, power masochism, which, by the ray, is certain to manifest itselfsooner or elites are no longer in a situation in which their will and reason n later in the writings of important practitioners of futures researet be overwhelmed by Innjersonal faces beyond their contror... .A, . also.. . riLm.lolitics of semiorganized irresponsibility prevails. But that fact 3° These, observatiotts are drawn from Richard L. Henshel,.,nought notto blindus to the political possibilities opened tip by this "Sociology and Prediction," The American Sociologist, yol. 6 great structural change: It *flow sociologically realistic, morally (August 1971), pp. 213-220. Some -other ideas:in this paper have been fair, and politically imperative to make demands upon men of ow carried forward in late? publications, incliding R. L. Henshel and L. and to hold them responsible for specific courses of events" (t 4- W. Kennedy, "Self-Altering Prophecies: Consequencesfor the 95). In this, Mills directly an4tTplites some of the current thinking Feasibllity of Social Prediction," in L. von Bertalanff d A. ... among futurists in sociology; the novelty of the new school resides Rapoport (eds.),i General SystemsYearbook, An rbor, mainly in its emphaiis on beginning analysis by elucidating and Mich.! Society for General Systeins ResearCh, 3), a R, L. -testing alternative images of the future, perhaps using models of the 4. Henihel, "The 'Prestige of Sociology and the Accuracy of Its . soli devised by Bell and Ali or khaps simply bymacting out" what.°- Predictions: A Feedback Loop-with Serious Implications," paper Robert Boginlaw has called a "social design." See Bbguslaw "The presented at the Society for the Study of Social Problems, New Yoik Design Perspective in Sociology," ikiiellaand Mau, op. cit., pp. 240- City, August 1973. _ `ft `258; or his The New Utopians: A Study of System Del nd Social 51 Henshei adds, "the relationshipcommonly assumed between Change (Englewood Cliffs, NJ.: Prentice-Hall, 19 .-Somewhere prediction and control specifies that as the predictiye power of a between these approaches is the one enunciated in hly elaborate 1 iscipline improves, its'ability to control is enhanced. Without an maddeningly idiosyncratic language, by Bernard C. Rhillips,0 denying tis'', we advance the complementary thesis that as control is Worlds of the Ijii;g: Exercises in the Sod logical Imagination increased, a ifscipline's dppatent predictive power is heightened." (Columbus, Ohio: Charles E. Merrill, 1972), wherein the author Heashei, iii:1! cif., p..214. . combines gaming concepts, science fiction, ma hematical modeling, -5: SOmething- of this line ofThiniiht is implicit in Wilbert'E. using systernsAynamics concepts, and probably other perspectives in Moore,. "Predicting Discontinuities in Social Change," American' orderst tnalyze opportunitiesrt for creating the future. , Sociological Review, Volk 29,,No. 3 (June 1964), pp. 33I-338where 38 his Successful Social Prophecy in the Past, unpublished the claiii made that socioiO'gy has advanced to the point where it . master's thesisql4w York: Columbia University, May 3, 1920); can, on good grounds, make probabilistic practions of even those results tofthiliftidy;.arwell as subsequent work, are highlighted ip changes that are irregular in magnitude, rate, and direction. diltillan'S "A Sociologist Looks at Technical Prediction," inTames 53 kisiiry Winthrop,The Sociologist and the Study of the R. bright (ed.),Technologic! Forecasting for Industry and Future," American Sociologist, Vol.2(May 1968): 6.142. Winthrop Golternment:WIlhocis and Applications (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: also asserts- hat becatise sociologists know more "about the social Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1968)4p. 3-34. system of iNhichthey are a part" they have more of an "edgelin 58 "there is," he wrote in his MA thesis, "a call for Mellon- . making projections. Wintheop-ntakertrquite-different argument tologiSts, students of future civilization in general, just as there are -,. Omitting reference to competing diciPlines and emphasizing social. Archaeologist's who reason out all the interacting tispeets,of , / . , . . 'a prehistoric culture. And since no one in the world at present seems to, social structureas a rather Obvious device to cope with the problem be working on this synthesis, it has seemed to the writer a very . that advanced society does not in fact culminate, as was once appropriate endeavor for vita sua" (pp 1-2). Gilfillan asserts that he expected, withan end to ideology in the glories of the industrial had made this decision "a dozen years ago" (i.e., in about 1908), in society. (The device,ofcourse,is simply to tack on the postindustrial his autobiography (p. v), henotesthat he "had long planned,since society as the new ultimate stage in social evolution.) This criticism is 1909 or earlier; that my great work ,would be to make prophecy expressed best in Krishan Kumar, "Inventing the Future in Spite of scientific." See "An UglyDuckling's SwanSong:The Futurology,"Futures.Vol. 4, No, 4 (December 1972), pp. 369-374, Autobiography of S Colum Gilfillan,"Sociological Abstracts which concludes with these observations: "If Bell and his followers (Febrhary-April 1970), pp. i-xxv and (May 1970), pp. xxvi-xl. He are right, all We can say is that the call to invent the future is empty tells us (p. viii) that he chose to becoth'eu sociologist because he rhetoric, since the future seems to promise no more than the past writ considered that fild "nearest to Prediction"and, secondarily large, and it would be idle to attempt new designs in a context so perhaps, because in 'those days. (1919-1935) eugenics was "a bound in the traditional mould. At its most distinctive the post- respectable science, and helper of Sociology." (Beginning in 1963, industrial society does no more than offer its Saint-Simonian Gilfillan turned his attention from forecasting and the sociology of administrators greater facility for social Control than ever were invention to issues oreugenics. Indeed, he considered histtife's.best possible in the industrial society.... That apptoach seems to remain work [to be] my eugefiic discovery of lead poisoning as the principal the prisoner of its own tradition and its own history." In this sense, at destroyerofancientgenius,cultureandprogressiveness" least, the concept oars be said to embody a kind of futures thinking (autobiography, pp xxviii- xxix). In the larger scheme of things, that is moving irila direction quit?'different from that of some of the ,however, he is likely to be rememberedmaybe "discovered" is the authors discussed above. better wordas one of the persons who helped prepare the way for Siheussler, in the article.cited in footnote 45, discusses five futures research, in and oul:of sociology, issues as being representatiVe of the range of these problems. I 60 Published by McGraw-Hill A good bibliograp,hy of these and summatize them as questions. (1) Can predictions be derived from other scientific writings by Ogburn will be fOund in W F. Ogburn, 'case materials (without consideration of probabilities) and, if so, are On. Culture and Social Change.Otis Dudley Duncan (ed.)', these predictions in aity sense more accurate than those based on (Chicogo, Ill.Phoenix Books', The University of Chicago Press, statistical averages or rates? (2) What, empirically; is the influence of 1964), pp. 349-360. predictions on subsequent events? (3) How might the efficiency of 61 GilfillaninBright,op.cit.,p.28. He cites Ogburn's social prediction he improved (where "efficiency" is a measure of the "Prospecting for the Future,"Social Frontier.Vol. 1 (April 1935),0. accuracy of particular methods relative to that of an alternative pp. 20-22. Method that is taken as a ricitiii)? (4) Should explanation (i.e., the 62 Ty,-0 studiesledbyOgburnarefundamental:-first, .,development, a theory) or prediction (i.e.,the test of factual Technological Trends and National Policy. Including the Social hypotheses) be given greater weight, in sociology? (5) Are some Implications of New Inventions.Report of the Subcommittee on classes Of social events inherently unpredictable? (See Schuessler, Technologyto the ational Resources Committee op. cit.,pp ..421 -423.) . (Washington, D.0 U.S. Government Printing dke, June ,1937), ° 661his list is from Suzanne Keller, "The Utility of Sociology, for acrd, second, 99 burn's'Ate Social Effects of Aviation(Boston, g'uturism" in Harkips;op. cii.,pp. K84(9. Mass.;. Houghton Mifflin Co., 1946). Both works, by the way, 67 Otis Dudley Dunchn, "Social ForecastingThe State of the contain chapters oh the general question Of forecasting; both may Art,"The Public Interest,No. 17 (Fall 1969), pp. 88-118. have been written by Gilfillan, though he signed only the first. For " Joseph F. - Coates, "Some Methods and Techniques for Gilfillan himself, see especially hisThe Sociology of Invention Comprehensive .Impact Assessment,:Technological Forecasting (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T, Press, 1970, original ed., '1935), and Social Change,Vol. 6 (1974), p. 344. : Chap. VII, and the somewhat modified discussion of the same 69 Duncan,op. cit.,p. 91. queitiondin- Supplement to the Sociology of Invention(San 7° Duncan,ibid:,p. 93. *. Francisco, Calif,: San,Francisco Press, Inc., 1971), Chap. 7. 71 Duncan,ibid.,pp. 95-96. 63 The number is not as significant, of course, as what it implied , . 72 Duncan,ibid.,p. 94/0 . regarding the status, content, and aims "of futures research in 73 Kenneth MBoulding,"Dare We Take the Social Sciences_ academia. See H. Wentworth Eldredge, "Teaching the Sociology of Seriously?"American Psychologist,Vol. 22 (19g7), pp. 879-887. .0.z the Future,1972," in Arthhr H'arkins (ed.),1972 American 74 Duncan,op. cit..p, 98. .. Sociological Association Seminar on the Sociology of the Fyture, 75 Duncan,ibid.,p. 114. pp. E1 -E35. '76 Duncan, ibid., P. 112. The concept goes back to 1959 in.lielf's 'ling. Its most recent " Duncan,ibid.,p. 108. .formulation will be found in his hook, e Coming of Post- 7° For example,4Wo recent studies might be cited: Daniel P. Industrial Society: A Venture in Social recasting(New York: Harrison,SocialForecasting Methodology: Suggestions for Basic Books, Inc., 1973). As Bell points out, the "idea of a post-, Research(New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1076) and Richard industrial £ciety, like thatofindustrial society,orcapitalism, has L. Henshel., OnThe Future of Social Prediction(Indianapolis: The meaningonly, asot conceptuat scheme" (p. 114). Its explanatory or Bobbs-Merrill Company, 1976). predictive value, therefore, depends on its being undeptood and 79 Duncan, citp. 105., explOitedin its entiretysomething that has not yet happened, even 3° Duncan,'ibid..106, 11* in Bell's own works. put however imperfectly the notion has been . Duncan, ibid., p. 107. incorporated in futures research, it has had an overwhelmingallure " Duncan,ibid.,p. 115. 'throughout the world as an, organizing priacipte. or point of 83 As suggestell in this chapter, the notion of forecastingin order reference. By the sante tokep: it has also been debunked, in the to create the ftitute (rather than -just predict it) is being taken more context 'or sociological thought, as a throwback to the old and more seriously.. "evartitionary"rides of attempting to, understand changes in the s 67 a . s Chapel 6 /: Technological Forecasting: State-Of-The-Art-Problems, andProspects Ralph C. Lenz, Jr. Whatisthestate -of- -the -artintechnological continuing link to the present in Gilfillan's4ocio/ogy \forecasting? The answer to this questionmay be of InventiOn. In 1937, the'first fully Organizedand expressedbyadescriptionof theforecasting methodological forecaitappeared under the spon-, methodologies in use, by the size and status of. the sorshiuOf the National Research Council, titled 6 p fession of forecasting, by the extent of itsuse and appropriately,even :fortoday'senvironment, utiyin the deciiion process, by assessing the ability of Technological Trends and National Policy. . technolligical forecasting to expldrVhefuttne,and ts); its role in improving the mechanisms of planningand A major war, reconstruction, anda conference at change: All of these expressionsare portant 6 the Princeton in 1951 stage- managed to discredit any and question, but more importantly They each hear all approaches in the forecasting of technological significantly on the problems and futureprospects vf prggross,1 'Combined to produce: a hiatus' in further technological fxecasting. 0 development of inethodology until 1959. In that year -... .,.. the phrase "technological forecas Ing"was first usedin. ; the title'of a t ,_ Although thestate -of -thert -art may be defined. is by. tenz descri ing specific methodt for the d eopelmnt ofquan without delving into historical, background:a brief. native forecasts of 6 look at some of the major milestones'in technological,,technologica progress.. The same yearsaw thq further forecasting may provide a useful platform from which . unfolding' of the' Delphi technique in a paper on the to view! the present situation. With no pretense .at_ "epistemology of the inexact sciences" by. Helmer and/*A representing a definitive history of technological Rescher. 4 . forecasting, the follo4ng chionology provides,an Publication of Air.FOrce monographs in196rand overview of The .developmentofforecasting 1962 written, by the Present author and basedon his methodology: ompertz curve is the prime, and thesis cited earlier, imvided,the first widely circulated possibly the only, cont ibution of the 19th century. For - documentbearing' the title !`Technological ...0,_ those who note tJe pro e of Jules Verne and the poetry...:.Forecasting." From this point on, the field developed of Lord Tennyson as contributions during this period, rapidly Honeywell's PATTERN in 1983,- further it trial be said that while both demonstrate the method development of Delphi by Gordon and Helmer, in of scenario description of future, neither provides-a 1964°,.found inof the World Future Societyin-1966,. basis for decisions crr improvement in theprocess of followed by Ji .,...-- 0 tsch's massive survey and Bright's first planning. ;,i.--'"- , '---rejonierenceon leamologiCal forecasting -4 n .1967.., . , . Gordon's. development' of the tsimpact matrix Writing for private publication in 1906,Henry,.during this periodWansfieldiWib Ion model and, . Adams first propoied the -Theory ofexponential 1'loydlfittKes-Of-triefitforce ts.in ;,1968,and. increase in feChnolo6 which still formsthe Underpin-. . Seaman's model of,the competitive proless in 1969 nines 'of mat' technologiCal forecast media& providiignificant new techniques in forecasting. Ifa Affhough biblibgraphieltitenumerous n'sts in the. prbfessicihal jolitnal' is evidence of the existence of 'a" early 0: part of the 20th centurtfi ence of" profession, ;the'' AinericantElseVier publioation. of Methodologicalbasisi notable in almo ot until- Technological, ForecaSting in .1069 Ii n e's'. ..,.'1935 do we find the att. 'Major miles e Witha(leadership mUst:beeitedas a majot:milestone, . , t. . , ... Ago in 1969, Fprrester's Urban.Dynamics, based on development.The limitedresearch n tech no- his earlier work with dynamic modelling of large economic relationships asa forecasting tool by systems, brought wider attention to the possibilities of Mansfield, Seamans, Roberts, Fusfeld, et al. has only forecasting based on rules of logic. Fusfeld's develop- pointed out the general directions for research in this meet of the technological progress function in 1970 area.. No general merging of the technical and should be the Just milestone cited in this shistSrical economic'sciplines has occurred till.-enable, quan- review, since the deelopinents of the 1970's more titative cr s s- impact artalysis of the effects in these two r properly belong in the desCrihtionik the state-of-the-. intimately! related spheres. Regressidn analysis ,ap-, art.- proaChelslietothis problem haVe proven patticular sterile ihe abseneofexperimental demonsi ion of ..,.0 cause-and-effect relationships. . ! Staie-of-the-art -i . Fifth; ktowledge'Of the rateslifchangein social ', structures and' value :systems, and of the political In 1967, Jaritsch was able, in several hundred pages, reactions which'reflect these changes; is only slightly, tosummarize the state-4-the-artinhisbook removed from the Dark Ages arguments concerning Technological Forecasting in Perspective. Such an . the number of angels that might dance on the head;of a undertaking is oliviously beyond the scope of this pin. Recognition of theneed fora better data baseand paper. As an alternative:, the state-of-the-art may be usefulforecastingtechniquesintheseareasis ,,defined in collective termsthat is, what are the . wid8p.read,'But little is yet available. '" techniques of forecasting-capable of doing, and what can'they as yet not achieve? What is the status of technological fo recasting as a prOfession? With reference todefifiitions' found in the At the present time, it may reasonably be asserted dictionary,it has reached the,status,of a calling .thIt one or more effective techniques are available for requiring specialized knowledge, and much of that making a quantitative fortcast of probable progress in any technologwhich has attained at least initial knowledge is documented in books and journals. On the' other hand, intensive formal academic preparation operational capability or commercial viability. These is' not yet available nor isit a prerequiSite for the °techniques are sufficiently varied in terms-of itiforma- generalpractitioner. College level courses are available tion provided and cost to produce useful forecasthhai can be provided within a wide ange of resource in technological forecasting, but as yet there is no 4- year program.leading to a Bachelor of Science degree expenditures. Forecasts mad y using these techni- in Technological Forecasting. We-are not yet at the ques can provide qualititati e estimates of attainable -_,stage of knowing:what should be includedtin a 4-year performance over a period :of 20 years into the future, program, and are -wen further from, being able to which estimates will be probably within 25perce t of define graduate and doctoral leVel programs. . the achieved value at that time. c.. . Under sometimes,different labels, one can identify As a guide to research needs in the future, it maybe . . . . Vndividuals whole principal calling,vocation, or - more important to note what we cannot do,,First, none . . employment isin technological 'forecasting, whiCh of the techniques now availableiseffective 4n ., .., meets the second dictionary test for a profession. On predictingtheimpact of new discoveries or the rate of -. 4 the other hand,for most practitioners, 'futures' 11 4 adoption of technologies which have not yet attained a .. -... forecasting ig an avocation pursued as an adjunct to 2-percent penetration of the market. Secoltd, techn-i-, ,,-... -..-- other,. professional efforts, so that itis difficult to ques for predicting the date of occurrence Of' critical identify a whole body of ;persons engaged in this ..,,, ,-..:- events-,,, necessary for the initiation of a neW technology, calling. Only informal associations and exclusions. suchas the Hahh-Strassman point, .are entirely . it. provide any measure' of technical and ethical inadecgiate.Third, . lechniques do 'not existtor - standards which are the necessary hallmark of a searchingout,identifying, and synthesizingthe .4-.' oprofegsion. We have been generally successful in scattered bits of ,research which are the precursors of ,...,,,,-0.04.-. I excluding the fortune-tellers,a&prophesiers from the new -discoveries.' Also, methods loni.synthesizing the ... cumulative effects of discoveries in 'several related ranks. of the profession,, yet-Jeanne Dixon probably .' fieldsrequire much further development Of the has more believers than the entire bocbRof serious prOfessionals. More importantly, justifiable criticism techniques developedby A'cey Floyd. 4 . of charlatanry within the ranks Of the profession is . Fourth, we cannot as yet foretast the cross-impact beingfaised both byinsiders and by_th-ose we serve. effects' oftechnological ,progress and ecohomic Thus perhaps one area for reseal* is the exploration a 0 '''-`. ' r 69 * . 8-0 of appropriate technical and ethical standards.to judge What about the ability of technological forecasting', and govern professional conduct in the practice of to explore the future? This question was much easier to technological.forecastini.Onefinaltestofa answer 15 of 20 years ago when, for example, Peter professional is whether or not he participates for gain Drucker could claim confidently that, "The major or livelihood': in an ,activity often engaged in by events that determine the future (for the next two amater., Certainly- there de enough amateur decades) have already happenedinevdcably,." Then forecasters to enable the few prcifesSionals to meet this we had a Babbittzlike confidence in the stability of our.. test, value system and complete faith in the the6ry of ; exponential acceleration of technology first advanced , Ho mcwidelyandeffeltivelyis, 'technological by _Henry Adams. Today, with better forecasting. forecasting used in thedecisionprocess? At the techniques and a greater level, of experience in their national level, as we'llice frofm crisis to crisis, it is use, we can only say that these techniques are powerful a. Apparent that foreeastitiOlays no role whatever in the tools for examining possible futures, given certain -At decisions that are made. Indeed, where public and assurnptidns (about the stability of the social and 'government interest shifts 6-orp one enthusiasm o economic systems) which were inherenttothe another and from one panic reaction to the next with development of these techniques. The adaptability of the attention span of a ,child, it is very difficult for the fOrecasting tedhniques described in books by rational forecasting efforts to influence decisions. Cetro,n; 'Bright, Ayres, Gordon, Martino, and Lan- Within,the-individual departments of the governinent, fordand in the journal Technological Forecasting and there is some evidence that reasonable fqrecaSting Social Chimge to alternate assumptions concerning efforts are being made and that the forecasts are value systents and 'economic stability has norfeen utilized in making decisions M those areas where public tested. Research direcrad.toward'such adaptability or interestis snot dominant. Although the Defense unadaptability seems much more profitable at the Mepartment probably still leads 'inthe utilization, of Tresent time thanorefinement, of current methodology technology forecasts, other factors tend to dominate whiCiMay rest upon now siiaky`prernises,, decisionntaking on major issues. What can he`safTabout the role of teehnological Research to date has not been notably successful in foreqsting in improving the mechanisms of planning quantifying the degree 91...wilizatinn of forecasting in 'a'nd Singe?, If one accepts Jantsch's definitions of, industrial' decisions. Some highly visible forecasting explorative aridVarmative forecasting, the question is efforts have been qUietly dropped by various coin- Unanswerable since to him "normative" forecastsare panies. However, the continued repeat attendance of the mechanisms of planning and change. For that body industry representativesat various Short crape of techniques which fitstmder Jantsch's definition of offeringiand the growing use of consulti/e forecasting- "exploratory" forecasting, the present state-of-the-art services indicates that a solid base of technological offers abundant reason for their use in improving the forecasting capabilities is being establ fishedished and used*. planning process. At the verhleast, these methods can Within most industries. Provide4ital information about probable events if current courses of actionare pursued. If such events Insight will be required, to find ways to determine the are undesirable, ,prevhtive planning is possible. If utilization and untie); of forecasting ap decisi6nmal.pg. these events are desirable, compatible planning will be No measares currently exist for determining the rate- profitable.Currentquantitative m ethods of ' Of-return on investment in technological forecasting, forecistkng can identify areas/0T future.:Coifflict but this frequently ask'ed question may be both technicar economic,-or sotiatwith a significant inappropriate and unanswerable. Surveys asking degree of accuracy. in the timing and magnitude of such forecasterstolndicate the utility'of their forecasts and conflicts. Indeed the questioa is not whether the the effect of their fOiecasts on decisions.are bound to current,state-of-the-art in forecasting. will permit its produce' biased responses, and surveys asking ex- use in planning and promulgating change, but,rather ectitives the same questions are unlikely to produce any why theavailable fOrecastingtechniques have been so -statisticallysignificantresponseatall.Until a little used for thisztprpose.: Certainly the massive_ definitive analysis of the decision process, as it exists in effects of the environmental 'protection laws tipo the real world, becomes available, it 'seems unlikelyienergy fesouce requirements were highly predictable-__ - that the question of forecaSt utilization can be and one can only+ Inarvil that t..ational men could answered. projectthemselvesinto the ,currentchaotic situation. ' -If the preceding is an acceptable summary of the and without forecasting aids might convince a few state-of-the-art in Technological forecasting, then it is. executives if they ( I) would take the time to play such appropriate at this point to examine some of the -games, (2) believed in t-g- outcome, (3) feli the game' problems which inhibitfurther progress and to was not-"fixtcy and (4) lost when they didn't use they recommend' areas of teseareh which may prove useful ..JOteCeit. Theonproblem presented by.the company 7; in resolving theie problems. executive who does. not wish to use technological forecasts is a lost market for the forecaster possible clenlise of the company. PosSiYly the,same can Current Problems in` eolNiological beSaid at the nationapevel. Forecasting , It may be argued :reasonably that how. one uses ,s . - technological forecasts in the decision` process is a .The major problem with technological forecastihg significant problem. Nevertheless, this appear) to be methodologies in use today is that they are not in use. moreof a procedural problem Ora matter of improving Most methods are d-ribed adequatelyinthe the decision process itself' than a problem for solution literature. derivations are mathematically sound, and by the technological forecasting community or profes- ...further refinement of technique is scarcely warranted sion. in view of3the. imprecision of the data bases available It is when we try to 4sess the ability of technological - for use with these techniques. However, one problem is the mathematically indiicriminate, use of data points forecasting to explore the future that we find the most which have unequal- significance with respect. to the perNexing Problems today.' Inspite of all, the state-of-the-art. Thistuggests, that research providing discussion about chaniii4 value systems there may be means to el/elate, discriminate, and weight data morn' stability in the value system of the American points so that trends fegarding performance levels public than in indicated in the current literature. Would be moil indicative of the true state-of-the-art Measurement of change in this area is, still sparse, would improve- f recasting capabilities. surveys tend to,indicatepeopleS' thoughts rather than ,their actions, and substitutionlof the so-calledpew life- 0rOblems forecasting! as a prOf4ion do !riot styles has scarcely readied a level justifying predictiOns appear overwheling at the moment. Growth appears of a takeover..In fact the application of the quantitative within reasonable hounds; although a sudden increase techniques of technological forecasting would be most In demand for forecasting certainly disclose a helpful in exploring thenature and therate of change serious shortage in experienced 'forecasters and in in our value systemsi ability to provide adequate training for new entrants. body of literature exists which is adequate for the The following quotation may indicate both the upportof serious academie effortsto provide necessity and difficulty of determining whether value specialists in technological forecasting. The principal changes will take place: problem, here is that of- overcoming the traditional disciplitiefy barriers of academia to create new One after another he saw the ideqs of whita greet programs.:arido to establish whet must bea mul- democracy might strive for abandoned in the lust tidisciplinary specialty in forecasting: o'r pin, for per4nal comfort and riches. We, the j.:.k.% people; had becoine we, the plunderers. The really' The use of technblogical forecastihg in the ision great and noble AMerican dream, the dream of a process presents no problem. The decisionmakereither better and fuller life for every man, had kg...ntne a uses the best forecasts availble to hint or adopts a good deal like thCstarripede of hogs to a'trough. Course-off action in,dependent of such forecasts, Tlie There arenib,a few signs today that- in this situation is analogous to betting on games of skill America of ours, there is wide revolt against the between opp-Zkng. teams. The man who bets on the direction that our life has taken. We are no longer_ basis of the best available forecasts of perfOrmance sure that wealth will create a satisfying scale of not in eirery,time but fie will do consistently better values -for. us. There is an interest in people who 10. than either the person who bets purely on chance or the have insisted on being themselves and suiting person who bets on huitherth s unlikely that any type themselves; a 'questioning of all concepts, in- of research will convince an executive that he should cluding those. of failure and success. Against the uselechitologiCal forecasts unless he- alreadyseries the whole rushing strea f contemporary life, the_. needfor improvement in his decision ;processes. individual feels himsel rer powerless, and 'Reasonably realistic games or simulations played with prone tciirony as a way of escape. , . I , t -S pp,t71 TT Does this quotation sound much like current predic- forces, then° the rate of technical progress should' I tions of an impending change in the American value decrease in accordance with the same formula which, system? If it does, reflect that it was written, by James governed its prior' motion. Truslow Adams as an introduction to the 1931 edition of The Education of Henry Adams. Using this What e,vidence exists, if any, for concludin at a quotation as a baseline for a qualitativemeasure of lessening in thrai ftraction of men's mind toward Vattechange itis difficult to see that significant concepts of energy and phtcal forces is mg place, changes in the value system have occurred dufing the and the corollary conclusion that the re of technical past 40 years and it makes current similar forecasts of progress in- the future will decrea e in a manner futurevalue changes somewhatsuspect, unless proportional'to its preViousaccel,Taticin? in the 193e's, supported by measurable evidence of cha it would, have been quite easy to accept Adams' prediction Of perihelion as b,ifig right on schedule, and Greaterdifficultiesappearinconside the the literature of that perio5I discloses that many indeed. relationship betweeneconomicstabile' and did believe -that techndlogicalprogress was being technological progress. Random, small, and transient permanently slowed/. Ofcourse,the development of changes in value systems appear capable of inducing nuclear.power in tpt" 1940's, earth-orbiting capabilities large excursions in precariously balanCed economic in the 1950's, andspacetravel and computer develop- systems.The mutuardependency of economic growth, ment in the 1.960's demonstrated instead the existence and technological progressis one of the biggest of continui g acceleration of technology. 'problems facing technological forecasting today. The long term history of both in the United States indicates Sho d we now read the,signs of the 1910's asa true little more than general concurrency in the trends of indition of perihelion of as a perturbation similar to economic development and technologica) improve- thof the 1.930's? Are thee canceltation of the SST, the ment, in both the long term and the short term. It has atusin manned space flight, the decline in NASA and been noted that the ROman economy faltered and the DOD R&D budgets, the energy crisis, and the declineTes empire fell as the result of a ahronit energy shortage, in engineering enrollments' tangible signals ofa which may or may not be a portent of similr permanent decrease:of man's interest, in the forces Consequences if U.S. energy problems are notso ed. which produced exponential increase in technological Research hi technological forecasting sho d be capabilities? And are the interest in ecology, considerai 'directed toward development of at least a fe rovable tion of limits to growth, emphasis on social needs, and assertions concerning the expendituresequired to organizedopposition toscience and technology- maintain desirable rates of technologltdvance and positive symptoms of the ekistence of nA forces which the actions required to assure soues of funding for will become the compelling attraction for the efforts of Such expenditures. our society? i Weakness in the under nings of the basic concepts Technological forecasting cannot answer these: intechnologicalfocastingraisesthegreatest questions today. It can however, project alternate questions concer ng the ability of technological futures,onesetbased on the assumption that forecasting ,explore the future. Nothingmore perihelion was Teached in )969. with. man's lunar' significa as been written on this subject than Henry landing and anothe,r set assuming that the.aeceleratida Ad s 34th Chapter.2Adams noted that technOlogical of technology willeontinue as it has in the past; at least rogress accelerated in/a Manner analogous to..the, until the year 2000. Research may then be directed, Motion of a comet, as a result-of the-attracticfn of men's toward a search for evidential-demopstration of the .mindsla concepts ofenelgy and physical forces. Hp validity of either these hypotheses. ;:r, believedin190'5 that, this, progress would reach ,1 perihelion, within 30 years,fe., circa 1935. ,Ada-ms' Of course, technology is' not g single aggregated 1" Concepts are basedon serious study and ddcurrienta-, body and its path must be described, terms of .the tion of rates, of scientific and technological progress. multiple paths of many disaggregated bodies. In this and a thorough understanding of motivational forces' .sense it may act more like% group of meteoroidson a within society. more or, letgommon-paili rather than like a single ,,,,,;..c,omet.--T filis some bodies of techbologymay already, They question.. of perihelion is paramotp.i. have passed, perihelion and be slowing theirrate Of ,srcteralion of- technological forecastinVviewof the advance' (for initance; transportation technology); 1 future. ,If -theo society's activities is ow while others are still. accelerating (suchas ne 'directedtuaTom concepts of energy and physical technOlogy) / .4' . ft 72 ' ? Jo' , . What problems must technological forcasting solye events. Carried to a logical extreme, the .professional for itself in order to improve theechnisms of should be able to ,present a forecast of catastro-Rhe planning and change? Fiist, we musstrip away some without expressing either joy or dismay. . of the mumbo-jumbo about."self-Ifiliing" and "self- In spite of all efforts by forecasters to comply with defeating"forecasts and, treatthis area in molt the above guidelines, technological forecasting ca& rigorous terms. No amount oresources or pilkning little Ito *improve the mechanisms of planning and can bring abdut "self-fulfill nt" ofa forecast for an change as long as. thes,rnechagrdns are controlled by "idea. whose time has nott come." For example, a People who,have made a prio gments about what plan; to put a man on moon with% the 10-year is good and what is bad and are more interested in ( period ,following Jules Vrne'g.fictional forecast would compulsive adherence to those judgments than in open have' required an anal expenditure equal. to one- evaluation of possible consequences of given actions. fourth oftheU: . grossnational productin . teelnologies not tn conceivable, let alone available. Such. a plan wouhave had no greater chance of self- Prospects For TeChnoldgical fulfillment inI40, and if initiated.in 1950 it would have resulted failurg and disillusionment, or at best Forecasting massive costveruns and completion 10 years late, i.e., almost extly in accord with the actual date of What will happen in, 'to,..and from technological , accompliment of this objective. forecasting? It seems likely that one segment of the . profession will continue the development of more On e other hand; "prophecies" can be "self., esoteric and mathematically abfruse derivations of the defeing," but a properly prepared, "forecast" will current body of forecastihg techniques. At random t outihat if certain trends continue: then (and only po intervals new techniques, new insights, and new tn) will the forecast situation come about. Obviously applicationsoill be introduced through genius or hard men haye the power to change their course of action work. Surveys and conferences will produce much (which is not always possible)! the actual outcome of fniitsome bitter, some rotten, and some worth.all the ti events may differ fr`om the,blinal forecast. Research effort. -Itdoes appeal- that technological forecasting is .is not required to solve this problem; rather it should be an idea whose time has come'and.that forecasting.- stifficieut to develop.and document a representative capabilities will increase exponentially with. time.- .sample of cases to demonstrate "thit the course of Unfortunately, we have no""measurenient of present. technology, while 'not' independent of society as a capabilities,or of the past rate of increase, so we whole, is generally independent of individual segments cannot forecast when any given level of capabilityWilf oftciety'andcan neither be Accelerated nor impeded , . be attained. f very much by the separate actions of those segthents. The profession will increase in size exponentially' Ifthe technological forecasting prdfession can untilit iffoproaches a limit, et luridefinect, but -present its findingS. in terms of achievable technical probably less than 1 percent of the total population. .capabilities a'nd probable consequences (both good Status of the profession will increaseln near -term, and bad) .of thosescapabilities, without emotional or as clamor grows for means of avoiding recurring crtses, 'self-serving-bias: itwill markedly improve the planning and will subsequently decline from disillusion when it process. Assumptions must be specified, the techni- becomes apparent that forecasting cannotsolve ques used if' preparing the forecast must be presented conflicts of interest. o clearly, and the concluiions must be logically derived. ,from the evidence presented. Perhaps the most obvious The decisionmakers will call upon technological problem n'this area is the, tendency to allow value forecasting in a sporadically increasing manner, as . judgments to distort the forecaiting process and to let they alternately find they cannot get along, without it,, value judgments influence the forecast itself, The and then cannot get along with it. As more and more forecaster should not, let his concern with what is executives come to realize that their prime faction is good" or "bad" interfere with his judgmenton what is to plan for the future, their acceptance and use of likely. Since the foiecaster's value sYstefit is his alone, forecasting will increase. In 10 years most of ntb o,ne else. can possibly know the'effe'cis of the generation who now dominate the executive ranks will forecaster's 'values unless they are explicitly.s.dted in have passed from the scene and the new generation, theTorecast, so that others may use their'own values to computer educated, acclimated to `uture shock, and judge the likelihotid .40, desirability of the forecast.,- knowledgeable of the need for forecasting, along with -. 73 /.1 1 a 'allof their other bad qualitiesL:will haveeliad responsibility thrustupon them. Although they may I.Develop methods or predicting' the impact of new discoveries. never be able to measure the utilityof forecastingin the decision process, they .will havean understanding that 2. Examine a large number ofcase histories to., it is not zero and that it is :h positive quantity. quantify thetime -lag between fiptcommercialor Technologi!al forecasting- will_never be able to operatiolemonstration ofnew technologies explore the futures-nor willAny other' technique and the beg Ding of significant market penetra- Since we mustarrive on the scene in order to explore it. tion, and to'provide dataon the probabilities of ultimate Prospects are increasingly good thatwe will be able to achievementofcommercial,or operational success. present alternatiye theories about what that future - might contain and to project routes we will Want to 3. Performahistoricalanalysisofseveral travel; We should be able to increase the probabilityof technologies to determine if any patterns exist. avoiding dead -end trails, blindcanyons, and areas- which could be used to predict thedate of devoid of resources and of detouring impossible occurrence of thecritical events necessary for thii barriers. We should be able to estimate theresources initiation of a new technology. required to teach somof thealternativeluturesand 4. able to guard against starvation and knowndisasters anducta relevancetree examinatioft of several enroute. In this respect technological forecasting isan established technical capabilities- to identify the excellent, although by no means the only,technique Separate technologies thatwere necessary to far planning the explorationofthe future. achieveinitial*rational caOability.Once , identified, the sources of inventidkand develop- Technological forecasting will continueto improve: ment in these corollary technologies should be the process of planning an bringing about Chaue. Its deterniined, together with estimates ofattendant preset rather minor role will expand to beccitrfea resource expenditures if possible. dominant CAlderation in planning. Mtquantitative projection of technological capabilitiesand resultant 5.Develop an?analytical demonstration ofcause- consequences will provide. earlieztwarningof un- and-effect relationships betweentechnological desirable impacts and will enable timelyevaluation of advance ant- economic growth. alternative courses of action. We tpight hopethat. this 6.Quantify rates of change in value systemsand, knowledge will help to prevent crises and,even more social-structures based on measurable activities. importantly,prevent : Overreactionto, Presumed 7. problems and. emergency surgery for chronic illsof4 Identify instructional and educational needsin the field of to 57. society. The' prOspectS of helpfroth forecasting in the nological forecasting. prevention*f crises will require te abaliddnmentof 8.Develop techn and ethical standards to jade theprincipleof"brinkthanship" in internalaffairs, just 7 and govern ppfessional conduct in the practice as it.* beenabandoned in world affairs because of its of technological forecaSting. ,. dangers: However, the prevention of crises with the.aid 9. , of forecasting will be difficultas long as emotionAl; Establish an annuAl.census of technological financial, and,politicd1 rewardscan be obtained by, forecasting practitioners. and of expendituresfor forecasting. jumping on.band Wagont led by the "music.men" con artists with their "76 trombones." '10Perform a rigorous philosophical examination . . of Technologioal foresting TolfeCs additional . the'-relationship between value systems-and technolOgy, ( profpec :aiding .economic- stability;epr, ameliorag smile of e problems of future shock,. 11. Using quantitative forecasts availablein the _and. for moderating social reaction, if it becorrles more' . literature, evaluate:each data point withrespect widely used in the planning.process: . to its significance as a measure of technological . progress as a basis .for. the development r Meth& to evaluate And' adjust fOrieasts Research .ReoommendatiOns accdurill for the differences in significance. 12.Develop simulations (games) 'The, Areas; for research! in _technological'forecasting to ilemOnstrate. . utility of technological fdrecisting in that 11-4,i0cen noted,in the body Of thispaper may be real-world summarizedts situations, , . 5: 1 3. Analyze expenditure levels required to maintain continuilig 'toincrease exponentially or (b) given sates of technological advance, and analyze continuing to increase but aa constantly slowing, processes for, and sources of, funding for such pace. , eipenditures. 41, 15. Documtnt a 'representative sample 'of -cases to 14. Collect and analyze evidence to test the alternate clarify assumptions regarding "self-fulfilling"or hypotheses, that technological progress is (a) "-self-defeating" forecasts. 'ce 4. , , 'FOOTNOTES 'Conference on. Quantitative- Description of Technological 2 HenryAdams, The Educatiopof Henry Adams (New York. The Changc. at Princeton. April 6-8..1951; repOrted in Review of Modern Library, 1911). Economics and Statistics. November, 1952. 3 Equivalent10 the.NASAprogram of 1960. _ 4 t ;i1 S . 41 9- _ .' ;-; f .' . - . ' : : : . ;:': :c Chap:er7. -- I; .' I /1': ,. J .-7 , e Normative Forecasting - - / ç) ;_. , ..-:.., Wz11is W Harman - - . t c Perhaps there arc only two kinds of futures research: .througinvention of .new global concepts such; overtiy normative and cocertiy normative Perhaps the' nitrQen çyce or chmaconmon,.t Fhr*edfzz... pretense of examining alternative futures with dis- hohstic aproach.s passionate crbectivity, as if from outer space is not cultural md only ridiculous bu pernicious as weji Perhasa1j, expectancie 'eü tira and .uantifiahlc confusion aboutthe meaning and nthods. of econom1c igrphtc ,.and teohnrsthgicalj. data normative futures research is part of a jnoreieral exanipte cjearl depends uporj confusion about goals a4id values that we criticall'' i and tefl)nôtogicalrdeselopnJentatcdupZin need to address .. ges (etvles; but these in tufe fuiçtións of - ' c/eteirrthe quaiity of life which inuc!t tjirntha''e abstract societal bcithgoals a national rn1aphicar prtige -a'ic eijdeavor rearch - - - 3 B(as,,s frzei'z:ab1e\This i$ espeeally truec,fan sing1e systiiiatic aproacfl If it.dtat5 wiihuantitiq- -JSome GenraI Observatio,s atherbiaofnideterinb1earnu infavoo About Futures Research That vhictisesi1 q.uant4iable 1"cüItura and subculturx1iefystcms,it;rnays1igkix. Let us start with a few observations and assunptIans irrational atid tficonsqous Iovces The nethod-maybe 2' id byi'inplici une of inas freend ' - about the nature of futures research. .. .--. . - '. _.. . , . . :rattona as trnfree dntes;- I It as utility-oriented The basitreason for deihng hbi1s andocia1-iaJ Ituiay iased1y a.--C to know moe about thefuture is to guide present MaIthusiap pessiiissi atlinocraffc optimjaTh actions and especially to antüipate avoid, and resolve - - -. - . - . .' - -' .. .! This unsatifçtory sttuaton is aR'eiate&.somewhat . problems. There islittle or no interest in a pure - -A'. ,.- ---v. .. unapplied science of alternative, futuresif, indeJ, deherateJycmpJOyng seval tversepproach.es, A ;_ - one an evn imagini. . : - - . - . -.. - .- - - . - another atid' bernjdirecied o iuithr aTalysswhere. 2 It is :ntruiszca!ly global in approach There is r6 .rdtts .atein cØ1iL'lu*,.firjher, on sijair need here to summanze thipipressive evid'hcetht 'mi,!wnd pimefi,n anittem(to naç such a "everything Is cdhnected to everything anch.tIIat iynbis that.aplkabldc3 Ancezca tody j we ignore t'his at the peril of boingrudel' surpised by i4nanticipateconsequences 0 actions cd o .impdt gcrothis;tab1eiasithr-. of this observatiop'is that gJobal, holistiechiques c' siod ;iimflsed ahparcularUture s-c- are required and that methods (e g, for technology a pattic eof tltglobtt a paticular tim n assessment) Whicare predicated, on simpler cause itS klncI sZt atf thea is effect relationships (even stochastic ones) Will COfl- 1s ëtidn The istent rove maduate . - -I . ,. . 1 A ,., -traveier sedstIibgs th&te iative.nimssd,An hitqiiani- cology ptovides a useful example study plan', is aware pf characterscs f apftillar pepthay' ecological system that attimpted to start frm such were notappamtilt to thepe;son1ing at thtAnjie We's cause-effect links as 'animalA eats piant B, rei1ting ul ight Jien th futufis't'Itemptu'ig tobe QbJec}ve-toa, condition C, etc "woulgef owhete Progrss made scholar of tb4 M)tldlet cs trying ocplore 'hL(i. - . :----' ------I , .-':i f4 I -, ./,' - ', :': ,L!k'- -. .. ..-'- - -: post-Copernican world might:reel like. The ming of This point, while not demonstrable inany conclusive' a futtires researcher needs to include, as ds that of an. way, can not be overstres#., The reason.cofttett anthropologist or a psychotherapisto 9 a judge in a porary societal problems appear. so perplexing court of law, learning that.quality of may tachment that well ,be not so much their essential complexityas the allOwsobservatiourelatively freed from the prejudices collective resistance to perceiving -the andexpeciations of past conditioning. problems in a different way. Other societies have had thekselectiye 4. Bias is desirable. In hnothersense, theoutput of blindnesses and defenses against knowingnodoubt 4 futuresresearch,is valuable, precisely because itis ours dles, too. ' deliberately biasedtoWard, those characteristicsof yr the future that are relevant to the focus of interest.The 'art of alternative futures forecasting.must be,as with Typesof ApproacheA any art the writing of history included), the imposition, on th unstructured universe of data of some sort of We argued above for integration pT diverseap- framork for viewing. Technology assessment, for proachesto the f re, because any single method is ce, is valuable to the extent that it, singles out characterized by V indeterminable bias. Letus now ose aspects of the future that would be affecjed by the examinebrieflyseveraltypesof approa6hto application or nonapplication of the technology in ; knowledge of the future: Our purpose is:notto be'. question. comprehensive but to illustrate how the Various approaches are-complementary and corrective-ofone Because futures research deals fundamentally with another's bias,es. the future of thehuman community, it is useful onlyto the extent that it is normative rand that it focuseson 1. Systimatiogeneration,of alternative "pathsto the those aspects that matter. tolhuman beings. It wouldbe. future." In essence thisgroup of approaches attempts' a strange and useless kind 9f nutritional resear at to construct some sort of system model adequateto the ignored the. normative question of wkat..ds are kind of knowledge' of the future that is desiiedand wholesome:. for'man and the value-la;goal of from this tb generate descriptions of alternativefutures good health. Similarly, the high place of,ecOnomists in - as functions of -time. There are' two main types: policy-making circles results from the normative quantitative and nonquantitativf. (The latter doesnot . nature Of their sciencetheir bias, if'you will, toward ignore ,relevant numerical data, ofcourse, but it `inch valtied goalsas high employment, price stabiliek4 attemptto reduce the bias toward emphasis on those ..?:> and balanle of payment.' ( characteristics 'which are' most' easily quantified.), . .. ., . , Validation of the model is mainly interms of checking .4:11-2- 5.Disseminatibn of fun Les research affects how well it describes the recentpast. 4 ,the #.:-...... ,'future/Eionomic -..fOrecasts . r" , affecteconomic Atnong'tthequantitativesystematicmethods, -t. '-f- '"''g,, 'behavior that is their function.'But this in turn econometric tnoels and combined econometric- :1.7.:4; changes the world beingforecasted Aimilarly, as ,,i., demographic .mciskel?are probably. the mostlamiliar. people'sthinking About.tke ctures affeaedby the Varying the,yarisiag fisumptiont built.into ,-,.%-. themodel output of .futures research, their alteted behavior in terms of constraints, relationsbetween-variables, '-:..?:":7 titmaffects that ',field being examined. Rational- parameter' Variaens,. .etc.) 'allows generkion .=,- -of.. anticipation of ',shortages can leal'to planning that . alterative plausibretuturE conailigis. One model that 4. alleviates .,tlie effects. On the otherhandl. fear 'of a attempts to -includel very, N;lidet nge of': socially threatening event can leadto uncocious contriving iMpoftant variables land. that 'has received much to help. bring about ,that'Which is red.. , attentionisthe" .World Dynamics" simulation 6. Resistance plays a role ina eptancfr of res'ults.ofi (Forrester, 1971; MekdoW'set al., 1972). / ,- -,futures &search. The phenota On is well known in Jantsch (1969) are, es the need of integrative system, psychotheapy that the client will Aist and aVoid the models that view milli his total dynamic-feedba'Ck.. very, knowledge hi most need to resolve his pi-oblems. natural, Am-A ,institutional,and' technol4ical;; A similar situationarobably exists in iociety, andthere eiwironment. 'One). such systematic. approachto 1 irs suggestive evidence both inantbropoloty a d in gediradrig alternative figures -history that a society tends thatuts particular to 'hide froM it ell' emphatis trt structural characletisties,is providedby . knowledge which is super icilithreatening' to the Rhynx(1971); In this method a.coded description of .status, quo but may in f etlbe 'badly need foi,-the state Of the, society,, isconstructed,' taking :into ,resolution Of the society's llst fundamentalprlents.* account the sectors (political, cultural,, 4....9 ... t economic, r %. technological,tc.) deemed to be of importance. By pled for understanding the industrial era; he selects systematicallyapplying 'testsofself-consistency, "the centrality of theoretical knowledge as the,source continuity, etc.lausible time - sequences of these states of innovation and of policy formulation for the are separated o t from the mUlth larger number of society," To arrive at a delineation of "postindustrial implausible seq ences. Thus a corirprehensiire-set of society" he projects this prciple ahead,, along with alternative "future histories" is generated.. other compdnents of' thelo-term multifold trend, including two not specifically identified by Kahn: 2. Extrapolativ'e trend examination. Extrapolative approaches are familiar in economic and demographic The decisive social cha takidirplace in our analyses tind in technology assessment.(Ayres, 1969). timebecause of the interdepen ce of men and A well -known exatrfple of extrapolative generation of the aggregativp character of ecogolniCactiOnstlie alternative futures is provided by Kahn's dev iations rise of externalities arid-social costs, and the need from a "long-tgrm mulifold trend" as delineated in /to control the effects of technical changeis the Table 1 (Kahn -and Wiener, 1967; Kahn and Bruce- .subordinationof the economic function to the Briggs, 1972). , Political order.:. ..The second major histobcal change is the sundering of social function (or place Daniel Bell (1973) provides an important exampte of in society, primarily occupational) from property. extrapolativf social foreCasting. As an "axial princi; [I). 373] Table 1. The Long-Term Multifold Additional alternative futures Can be generated by trend of Wester Culture identification of possible new trend components, either becauseof, approachinglimits(e.g : resource° liniitations) or because of new technological or cultural I9creasingly sensate (empirical, this-wordly, secular, developments .. humanistic, pragmatic:. manipulative, explicitly i .. rational,utilitarian,.contractual,epicurean, 3. Historical analysis and analogy. At ,least three hedonistic, etc.) cultures kinds of historically based futures anal?sis oan be 2 Bourgeois, bureaucratic, and rneritocratio elites identified. One is the sort of political analysis in which 3. Centralization and concentration of economic and nation - state -or other stake-holder groups are con- political power l sidered as actors in an ongoing drama of forces and 4 Accumulation of scientific and technical knowledge counterforces, goals and strivings, actions and reac- 5. InstitUtionalization of technologiPal change, especial - tions. A second kind amounts to analysis'Of the nature ly research, developmeriAnnovation, anddiffusidn. of present social dilemmas, arid a delineatian of .6. Increasing military capability possible alterriative futures in terms 'of the ways 7. Westernization, modernization, and industrialization which the society moves -to resolve these dilemma (Examples are Effui, 1964; Michael, ,1965; Ferki 8. Increasing affluence and (recently) leisurW 1969; Revel, 1971; and fioulding,,1964.) 9. Population growth Third, historical analogs can beuseful, parti larly 10. UrbanlatMn recently suburbanizatin urb'an , . spra$;v1"ioon the Arowth'of megalopoli inexamining the hypothesis that-Industrialize Society currently tiridergoing 11. Decreasing importance primary and (recently) may be a profound tr Secondary and ternary-occupations inoreasing.im- ton which will affect all aspedts of411. /future. The portancp of tertr and recently_ quaternary °coupe- Ak.anthropologist Anthony F. C., Walla e {1956) in a tiCAIS 1*.. e i ; .. -comparve :studyofcrisis -press stated .cultural 12." ' Increasing literacy and education and (recelly) the . charrgedived.a series df_idfalid stages through 1 "knowledgeinnustry;rannincreasing role.of intellec- ,,...tee wkich such transformations teatto pass.. Thomas . , ., tuals ,- ( . . Kuhn (19_70) recognized a somewhat Similar pattern m , 13: Innovaiive and menipdlativse social engineeringi.e.,' cases where the basic knowledge parddigm is replaced fationiiityeIncreaSinglyapplied toisacial, political, with another; such. a4heopernicari revolution in culturaVernereconomicworlds aswell as to shaping- 'science.Again, studies, of fevOlutionai:Y change .;,. and ,exploiting- the material, world4creasingthe 1 i problemofritualistic,incomplete,LO ..Seutlo- , throughout history' :reveal typical, patterns and prectir= , rationality,.!. - .." sors (Johnson, 1966; IVIcEachrOri; 1971). 14. Increasing universality of thie-MultifOld tren4 '414' 4.Colledive opinion. tchriiques.4,fotirthcategory,. 15.*creasingtempo of change in all theabove 1 of method widely used 'for futures studies is that of . - , Source, The Hudion Initihrte (Kahn end Bruce-Briggi. 1972). I,i gatheringand irocegsingiitdiyidual judipnInts T . , .4 '.1 . '''',:,44,ttc' ) .7 1 A -*.etelating to the future. This ranges fro surveys continued attempts to flesh out and test this' ifcture through' Delphi (Gordon and Helmer, 1966) and cross- and to relate it to social pOlicy in otherareas. iy.ould, impact analysis (Gordon, 1068)In a somewhat like to summarize below results_from three. types of different and more dynamic guise it includesgames prObings mentioned. in the preCeding section. and simulations, whereinrationar- andintuitive a judgments are acted 'Out in time secjuence in the I. The extrapolative.approdlp. Table:1, as earlier # indicated, lists confporients of a 'long-term multifold presenCe of feedback, . trend" that has been. used, effectively, in taking an extrapolative look" at alternative-futures. One Might, ATentative interpretation of wish to modify this slightly to emphasize some aspects the Present Decade. that seem more important than they may have a few., years ago. These could include the following trends:" It will he most useful,. I think, to look briefly at a I, The increasing scale of en ironinental impact of specific endeavor to,carryout the sort of integrative' human activities. futures 'researchdescribed- above. The tentative findings of this effog.,pos a crucial test for futures 2. The increasing rate of use of"nontenewable" natural research methodology if. itis to be adequate to resources of nlinerals and fos0 fuels. contemporary needs. 3. The movement toward a single world economy with The U.S.Office of Education made 'a daring closely linked vVorldWide economic institution's. commitment to-futures research in fundingin 1967 two 111 The increasing, gap between rich andpoor pop gducational `researchcentersto examine ulatioris. alternative futures for.the)nation 20to 30 years ahead and to derive from them guidance for Icrng-term 5. The increasing subordinatiONof the economic functiOn to the niilitical order (Bell). -.1-:,p ,... educational policy. An the 'center _basedat SRI We .. . -I _ developed 'S)stematic method of generating "alter- 6. The decreasing importance. of priy property native futUreahrstories,", and by the end of two years' (Bell). , . Work we had,come out with some conclusions that , .. 44t, - were startling to us----and completely unusable to the Letus, look briefly at some of the more important Washington bureaucracy (Harman, 1970). Among the recent developments that may result in new trend, plausibl.e."patIts to the ftOre" that emerged from The components and hence in an overall shift in the liThg- analysis oiost were intole rable in the Sense that, no. term, multifold trend: , 1' society would deliberatelyirose ther(tho _might end up there through, inadvertence J. "Spaceship/earth" 'thinking, awareness 'of the The. only practical paths that ledto a biosphere as a life-support system,concern for environment, ecologicalsystems, .and,,resourc generally desirablefuture seemedtorequire _a , control. monumental task of social 'learning and a major . transformation of social institutionsto be substantially 2. "Alternative futures" think'gtawareness of tie accomplished in the period befere the Mid-1980's4 "Faustian powers" of techtfalo 'calmanipulation to - .Accoftiingly, we forecast- a timeoftroubleg shape the future and of the new dimensions of social disruption jn the mid-I 970's, characterized by a human responsibility for the future of the planet.and -for life thereon. .4 . sarieoe crises thatvotild'have apparent andseparatt-,, ,causes '4but 'Would in fact be more fundamentally 3..Shiftfrom the, predoniiitance,-- of problems of syriotoms ,of tbe ,n)assive Social wrenching taking ,.inadequate capability to** Manipulate the natural place- --- somethinglikethecentury of irrational environment 'to predominance of, problems of religious wars and disruptions that characteiized the ', ;teithoOlOgical success (see.Table 2),. Refermation period in Europe (but compressed-into a- througheut_ the -industrialized world from decade). ' If there were any validity .at all to thi; ? .interpretatior; of the datatben clearly the implications cleficiencyneed concerns teAself-actitalization eon-. ' for educational and social policy were most profound. cernsft'O!tise MasloW's terms (1972)], odeasioned.by incre,sint levels of -notrition;edUcatiooilaffluenee.- the USCi.E respoose (not inappropriately,,in view of (These litter are longrteriii trends, but the,shift off.. Washitigtbn cAinate of the times) was to withdraw , need-levet 'concernsis ta -discontinuous change 417. furthersupport, of generalfutures. research.. We charieterized \y."changespn, Value' -em wa . ° ameromimmanImIWO011.; , , f - Table 2, Selected Successese. 4'SI nd Associated1 Pr lems,of The. TSchnologicendustrial Ere. r.Prod rns Resulting. from "Successes" . B g "Too Successful" 4-77 Prolonginb the lifespan, , Regional overpOpulalion; problems reducing infant mdrtality of the aged , , . . Highly developpd science and Hazard df m is destruction through . technology nuclear anbiological weapons, - 'threats to pr acyand-freedomb (e.g., surveillance technology, ."bioengirfeering") Advances in communication and' Increasing air, noise, and land!, transportation pollution,"informationoverload"r vulnerability of a complex society to breakdown a - . Efficient.production sysfems pehUmanizatilof ordinary-work Affluence, material growth Increased per- capita consumption of energy, and goods, lead pollttion arid depletion Of t_ he earth's resources . r Satisfaction of basic needs Wortpwido'reVOlutiors-of "rising. expectations," rebollion:irgpinst 41 non-meaningful work -Expanded'poweK of human choice U n antid paled 'corisdduen_cei of technological applicatirins, manage= -ment breakdown as regards control -- of these. - _ - -\ '1 Expand wealth of developed Incrgiing the garFPetween "have" 4- - patio s and "have-Inot'.!Ination):frus:.---'...-:t- % Mks-. :tration of threteliolujion.of prising eXpebtationi"" -t- tom materialittic and status values and: toward Productivity, for.rlacementiof men's muses and hunianistic and spiritual values. Manifestations of brains by_machines, rought about' by aroftml, such a shift can be found in survey results, new forms 930 a lasting condition of ai otentiallabor force far of worker discontent, new political and social greater than nee et to co iluefthe necessary emphasis on self-deternrination, and new styles of activities of the so ety.f urthebre, the division of management.) , . -lab ad .been riout tatpoint where many jobs --segmented -su .5. Awareness, throughout the- lesser developed world .tedi' m tlfat mean ul:.-work opportune and poorer groupnbjought_about in partbymodern Me to he -considered an, hia;easingly'-Scarce corn .communication ind transportation,of -;:major- 0y is attested= to by-_ concern. over--unemployme ine uities in access to theeaith's resource's and of the ant jpowe io,changetff `exporting jobs; " rising.-worker complaints over.." stulfifyi -jobs -(Sheppard and :Herrick, 1972), 6. Beginning of the sage of Meaningful work roles inflated .tdb-e try_requiremts,4forced retire;:, brought about by automation and cybernItion:Tne polies s,, ,fektAerbemg.. and inakewoik employinent statistics and, urvey data are estuivocal ractices, an generationjobsThrou 'harrnsiaces with reii?-d to:the se ougness of unemployment anti:: ifj:Piy.ramid build [net" a4A ' 0):.." , . .0 videlice% 'Worker scontents ,- :,LL-- ,.,;..-.--":--_*--,...------,--; strongly s ,iggests the thrust roitefficienand "7 l'i w..ranscenteritiliim', T gene , . . . widespreadinterestina "New Naturalism" direction of reducedliberties and systent (Yankelovich, 1972), religiovs andspiritual con- Modern transportation and cerns. psychic' phenomena and the occult, communication and, esoteric growing interdependencies make.each and metaphysical philosophies: meditation person or part-, and of the system more closely connectedto the rest. For other inner-exploratory techritques.- the individual this places his freedonis 1 in jeopardy--; Mostof.these developmentsare related to the five /the astronaut's actions aremore circumscribed thin dilemmasofmodernsociety to be delineated in the those of the c9wboy. Rif theeconomy this .close- following section. The major.trendshifts they may lead coupling seems to call formore and more government tO are suggested a little. further on. regulation t9 reinforcea faltering "invisible hand:* (priceregulation,restrictionsfor environmental 2: Identification ofindantental dilenintas. A protectioncontrols to protect the,colti§umerfrom secpnd way in which we, ried to discernfruitful ways of dangerodrugs, etc.), which interferes withresponse visualizing alternativ futureswas to purglie a long list to markpressures and contributes of contemtzorary societal problems t suchdis- to their more basic locations as shdrtages of fuel andother Commodities. forms, eventually being ledto a set of five interrelated At the international level fundamental dilemmas that Tharacterize there is inescapable in- this Nation terdependence of world economiessuch that dePre.s- vend,' to Considerableextent, all of indestrialized skin or inflation becomes society. Alternative attempts 7.cotitagiotl." Within ; at resolutioh of these nations, as wellas internationally, the comp xity of, dilemmas will-act .as `shapers Ofalternative future the overall system and the states. , . Karious subsys ems--t economic, transportation, andelectric power,:7:71fies .6) them. more vulnerableutd breakdowns,. The five dilemmas accident 1 or . are, briefly: deliberately caussd. ' ," :a. We need continued Pconontic 4*4 , growth but 'we . d. Possession of d koilefallyssupported cannot live With theonsequences. Thisdilemma is by work rolee_, now widely discussed, with frequent is essential to the indiviihial'ssense ofself:esteeteyet reference; to;'the econoth1' seems increasingly "limits to growth" and to,argtiments,thatfwehave to unable to provide: . enoqh satisfadgry tt,,r3rk ,opportunities We shift towarda "steady-state economy." Onone hand, listed above 44 in d that there are worsening probleirlifofmaterials shorfagt. societyconsiders energysupply,environmental ,meaningful work opportpityto be an increasing) dhrada'tion,and - scarce comm. 9ditY:.'Lack. Ora tatisfactorywo interferences with biologica)cycles mid ecological employee, self-employed., student. systemsall associated with'acontinuehigh rate,of etc:Ttends to result *technolOgical and. in personal disinteeation'(DeparthieriC:ofHealth, economic growth. On the. other; Education, and Welfare, 1973-).'CompetitaiorgoijObS hand. th ere are a host ofreasons tirga sudden decrease at. in growth ratt'- would be disastrous. exacerbates rabialiana'intettrour conflictEmploy,* UnemPloymept ment fears alsoicOnstitute,,a barrier ,and economic depressionare the most obvilius. Then, . to the, solution of- . '.problems of environmental too, if growth slows'there will be increasedpressure for pollution .antl _waste of redistribution of .wealth and natural ,resoUrees. Ecote-i-..tieeds'may be met With incorneL-rpressurefor a Welfare payment4Prireii "bigger piece of the econOmicpie" that was less in but this ,*does.,not deal, with thtir need4of.saflifyliOnd evidence. when the pie was expandingmore rapidly: valued social'roles and the psychological aspects°feint:41)y-,\ b. We peed guidance of teehriologicalinnovation' ment. The inability of the "bur shun economy to provideenough centralized', control.The.. power's of satisfactory work roles toiciaround(except perhaps at fethitklogy ttithangeany and a.11 aspects of the total able inflatibn levels) isa serious flaw.. environment. (physical.,social,, political, and psi'- chordgibal)' grOW ,:ever gtatsr. Thereis increasing e. The industrialized nations witlfindit costly.k-. recognition of the need for'technolOgicalassessnotent move toward a More ,equitable,distrilution ofthe and some 'fOrin of stifielal cotitrol.lt" remainsto. be.,, earth's r sou's; to nett do son*. be even more cost 14.- shown' that ,ademocratic: ..soeiety can anticipate esi7developed nabs modernize andbegin to technological impacts and protectthe interess"of the. and their share 9f sCarternaterials, hidludingfo4i1 f overall *society andyet ,preserve.the-basic exacerbating preSent strortages, this.,taressure characteristics of a free-enteilnise becOtile a major threat.to . , system. world ,stability. The a'chieveihent of a level of lifein accord with.fundamen,-;...* Ever-eliiier.coitplingbetween indiv!iditalsands\tal liulnan dignity ,forthe . 1 . world's nearly,!<3,-billtan:iod organizations appears to leadinexoraplyjn,- the" does ndt appear "possible-withou a ntinued.'econo,mic ' `411 `,i'gm . growth in both developing and developed nations. And- behavior,'and noninstitutionalizectreligious yet, as earlier noted, economic growth on the pattern of behavior. "- the past poses an undeniable threat to the environment 2. The "new trangcendentalism" has made rapid and 1 and to the health of man. Furthermore, the expec: tatioliscd mands of the lesser developedtworld may largetains as a cultural shift, as is evidenced by indications of value anti belief shifts in survey data; . -well come at s ch apace that they could be met only by , ,i6w,ering the standard of living in the rich- nations. widespreadunderstandingof allusions tothe :- . ---r esoteric-and occult in, current movies an'dplays; Several modal' approaches for dealing with these expanded interest in books and articles dealing with interrelated dilemmas can beidentified: ' - , religions, spiritual, occult, and psychic phenomena latusquo extended. Assoon as wocan get:beyond acrd _topics; increased membership in voluntary the temporary need for ,controls, we go back:to associationscenteringaroundtheseinterests; depending on the market to handli4moisi deeisions observable influences of the "New Age" subculture better kliali bureaucradies can. With deregulation, on mainstream culture (from mefaphysicatbeliefs to hair stylgs). A parallel development of scientific rising.m rials and fttel prices will automatically. take tar . of nThie ral _and energy shortages. -W.hen. interest in exploring altered consciousness, physical pul,e insist -enough on clean air and pleasant . correlates'of-! subjectivestates;biofeedback, . enVtinments, the costs of environnental cleanup meditative states and mystical experience, and psycliic phenomena suggits that the emrgent , wilt be included in the price of potentially polluting -goods and services. Technology can be depended - paradigm may have staying power. upon to create morejobsthan it rgplaoes. And satin.- 3pSociat observers during the past feW-years havecome 2. Humanist-environmeritalist reaction. Alfa do-ti the' forth'ivith soinevititt similar analyses of what they ti -grOwth---syndrome:- aim .fo1 drastica weiedy. OH-elite to .be a garfural and 'social transformatio(---, , ° teonomid and technological growth anincreased_ --(Fromm,1968; MuTford,Iwo.Revel,1971; _ . emphasis on qualityof life, conservation of natural-, ROgak, (94 Markley, 1973). V . 2 environments; and a more person-centered . 3. "New socialism," recognizingthe need fo'r more -:, td 1. . more Control:OkerthosOdeciSfinfwhich, in a perioc17., ; ACrucialQuestion for of lo_wer_teehity,smaller-,organizationsy, and a; -.2;Future(ftesearchsarch' -.. frontier-oriented-economy were adequately made in . ,'' - , ,. ,, ... . the marketplace (Galbraith, 1973). / ''._ ,. These sorts clianalyses and explorations have led we . _ . , :. . and sOm of-my colleagues to a gradually e,volving! acll of these would, if it -were ,to come to.ddin.t'nate--.' the"Socieq, lead to a significantly different tture. -'-.,interpl-etat on of'the present -moment jn historyan 16..' _.. l itpreta on which has evidenced some predictive Tjiere is reason to question, however, vAtetheratiko6 . of the three could bring about resolution of fbe,'Aer---ca ability over tkpast few year's and which is Most f.,. :.,-.sta Ong in its im4eations if taken seriously. I believe 1'dilemmas simultaneusly, orwhether fhisawp,911 -.require a mere thoronifigoing transfognation:-i.,.!IY"4,41f.,:;:il; ckii, -:., efits. being taken veryvery seriously. a 1.' - culture. andinstitutions: - ,c- 1.4, . ,'. -',.... 4- 4,Few people,. today Would,;=.%cloubt that, however ult if rnarbe-io define preisely what iS`meant 3.%Possiblerevolutionarychange.Oere islnuch that :::1 terms, the coperriicr Re:VOlutiOn. and the later .emerges in the comparisons- of present times 'with. ---, ustriar :RkiolittiOn have had a great:-effect in. - historical examples- of pro(ouiidsocial ,.transfor-, gaping the sTesent-.present state of socigty. Ourconclusion . mations which. suggests we may &e well into suds a'..'4. t,..- -. ,- ., ti. ___-..---Jr.turwtni,iipp.".vtkargumgnts is this society, and revautionarylrinsforthation: "mi.,- ,,, - Nei the ., ./ ;_-mdustrialiii,d ',world le general,is simultaneously ,,,f, -,..-1.,k .A. 1. Increases have been "apparentin'the past decade in..1p3d#rgoing a conceptual revollition as ihoroug.tgoing various "lead,indicatorr wIfiCh have beetyprecui-.4..4:itit,reffects as the topirnican, revolutign,.anefan sors of past transformoitial periods. Thege include?,: institutionalrevoltition as profound a the-Jndustrial an incrtasedsense -of,alienationand,pun---,., .MOlurion. Furtikware, this overall transformation ; ) ...,-,.::: . '). ,_ -,, .. PoselessnesS, the-occurrence of Viblentrime. the .4, 4s.pTOCeecling *Mr ottremejapidity, such that the most . -- ,,-0.- frequency of personal disorders.andinental illnes's,41-. ,.: ,critical period will be passed through within a decade.'.. so. ciat disrpptiois, the` of ,poliCe it-contiol';W:bether the social structurecan withstand the strain is 9 behavior,thepublic acceptance' ..tohedonistic" - ;'e ilmuch a isst e,anathistr will greatly depend on how f'.- i. ____.:---;'). .. ..i,1: .','.' ...-.-- , -, .--Or.t well we'can understand the nature and necessity of the resource Conservation, transformation as we experierakit. The and environmental enhance- more it is ment). Microcfecisions mad ,misundefstd6C1; the by individuals, cor- be the anxiety level and porations, and government agencies, in the more inappropriatewi 'he the responses. accordance with the paradigm, produce -societalmacrodecisions 'Now the validity of suchan interpretation can that are on balance increasingly intolerable.The five hardly:be demonstratedcertainlynot at this point. dilemmas mentioned earlierare rooted in this more But the question it poses for futuresresearch is this: If fundamental predicament. The present seriesof crises such a revolutionary societal transformationwere in -may-be. interpreted as symptoms thatthe industrial- process, of such a fundamehtal nature that it should itate paradigm is no longer viable aihdthat the,-14 affect all major policy, dedisions, wouldour methods of dilemmas will require a new social paradigin forpreir. finures researeli disdern this fact?pr, on the other resolution. , old, does most ofour methodology subtly include - Thus it seems likely that technically Advanced - prejudices from the old paradigm thatWould make it societies like the United States blind to indications of the newt are undergoing -a major historical transformation to some sorilof "post- Letmeelaboratealittlefurtheronthe industrial" age, characterized by. diminigied"labor- characteristics of this hypothesizedtransformation. A fOrce employmentM industrialproductiOn, by major 'driving force is the,superabiindalv of in- increased prominence of service activities,by increased dications that the industrial era is nearingits closii. The concern with value questions relating to quality of life, period since the Industrial Revolutionhas been one in and presumibly by institutional changes thatwill which Aman has made increasingdemands on the provide some satisfactory resoUon ofthe tundamen 4. natural storehouses or minerals and fossilfs Ind h tal dilemma described abo-vi, 'had an hitt-easing impact on ecolog envirmfment At thesarneaime;. the dominant knowledge The dominant social paradigm over thisperiod has 'paradigm, the scientific world view, is proving been characterized by: to be an `inalciequate baseon which to build a s'aitablescienee of . Devel6pment . and . application of tke scientific 'man. Kuhn 0970) vividly describeshow,ii , inethoci, wpddini of scientific and tecihnologic replacement of scientific n'aradigtns,a watershed point advance. is reichedtVere the accumulatedweight of discre`pan- 1. cies and nomalies thateannot be 2..Industrialization, fitted into the old' . emphasizingacliieyementof padadigm tip .the balance; andit becbmes more _ efficiency and productivity throtigh organization profitable (in emotionalas well as rational terms) to and division of "labor, machine replacenientof seek a new para4m than;tio patch - human labor. up the eldAtecent r -' experimental re*arches in a number ofsciencesbut,- ,3. Acquisitive materialisthasa dominant ,ultdral. trarticularly in-,thearea of. most direct challenge, value. sse. psychic phenomena:, 'strongly s'yggestthat human potentiality is far greater- and -more diyerse than is _4. Belief in unlimited material- progress, dries toward 0 ,ordinarily realized (in particular,including abilities for ...... technological-and economic grAth...... whicK-there is no-conceivable physical'explanation), 5. Manipulative rationity as a dominant theme,man that a far greater portion'of significant humn seeking-control or nature, positivistictheory- of trxperience is unconscious than is,ordinarilyassume knowledge.. ,: 4. an-,. d that expectationsand images have farmorepower .., than could be accounted for under-theold paradigm. 6. Individual rescc4Clity for one's own destiny, but One crucial experiment byi'uthoifand Targ (1974T individual determination of the "good' society as an seems= to provide .clearevidence bf a universal ,1111" aggregate of individuals 4ursuing their, own in- .* telepathic d'apsac',155ank d thtka t complete repression terests. ae:,,..- 0 ., of awarenei . -of tins so of knowledge.2 Pie 'i- t. implication of the d'periment is 44* 'The.fundameiital.00, dilemma of industrializedsociety_ that other reported .: ti . is that this 'paradigm,in addition to its -important aranornial abilities are probablyalso universal and, successes, has resulted in procesSes andstates (e.g.,. also almost totally repressed. 46%4%, ' extreme division of.labo'r and specialization,artifically The emergent paradigm will almost certain stimulated consumption, include - planned obsolescence, and,0 the old paradigm as a specialcase. :exploitation of common resources) ec which end up through'completrientary.images cdunteiact*g human 'and, cep- 7" ends (e.g., enriching work roles,.' .tualizations (as with the''Weil-wornexampled the ..... 4 ,1 w e and particle images of light), such dichotomies as If thereisto be an affirmative answer tothiSm materialism %crab transcendentalism, free will versus question, it follows that futures research needs toe determinism, and goal-seeking explanations iresus well supported in the short term; sjnce that is,when-tlie reductionism. Thus it will he freed from the positivistic illuniination is most urgently needed. It follo#s further reductionistic bias that characterizes much (though that certain emphases and priorities are appropriate, not all) of mOVErn science. In it the vast range of specifically: reported psychic..phenomena (e.g., telepathy, clair- :. 4, , I.EpLoratory research. There needstobe an_ ..,- voyantperception,abnormallyrapid, healing, emplia s on support of'exploratory rese'arch.,is-- precognition,retrocOgnitionofother:Aikines., lepurtation, "thOught phgtography," and other, should encourage diverse efforts and' attemptsat. synthesis of resultsfromom diverse m off:I-here needs forms of psychinesisY coulde accommb ateas fri T to be recognition of lc and intuitive element posSible but normally repressed happenings. eta i sresearch, and Support should notbe These two cirnponent;a profound transforma- . concentrated on that which is methodologically neat. Iron of the social and economic ns and a Objectnity is most difficult to come by, especially in a replacement of the dbminant knowledge par o ntal social change, and the strategy the societyare^ interdep.endenC The increasingly should be to seek objectni y obvious, troubleirof the industrialised world prepare . . the ground Cr the new,knowledge paradigm to take 2. Focused research. These needs tsi-kan emphasi5. on research that is focused myklternative resotatiens root. And the "new transcendentahsin"ofthe emergAt knowledge parAllim brings talueemphases, and attempts at.r.esolutiOn of society's fundamental that contriblte. to the gowing challgage, to 'the dilemmrs. IntegriOs the iiiiality to be-sought here, not 4_ methodological -sophisificalin. When a paradigm is legitimacy o I-age inftitutions and incesn- failing is just the time it may enerate the most , fives. sophisticated methodolgies. 1 P Itwould ',brfolly,and inappropriate tothis ' 3.Explicidf gormative.' There needs ...te- be er discdssion,,lo attempt to guess the precise forms of emphasis on futures research whichisexplicitly 'these institutional and cultui-al changes. Certainly normative, which in the best tradition Of utopian \ some of tie characteristics could be identified, such as ' thinking attempts to delineate an image of a workable the predominance of An.ecological ethic and a shift" and desirable midterm future that we can get to-from from a c9asuruing society tcr a -frugal society. /cry here. When aith in the old gods is weakening, when the difficult problems lie ahead /e.g.,4the reconciliation of old Structurare threateiting to crumble and thd new, lower material growth ratewith avoidance ofmass cannot yet be discerned, dependable Maps of alter- unemployment. If 1'6 postulated transforraftTotb is. native paths, to the future are especially needed. If the, reallyunderway, we cananticipatea, troubled cal&it show final destinations, WO need at least 1 transition periodsharacterized by extreme confusion, maps anxiety, social disruption, and economic decline. This to identify a few paths that promise to be tolerable `near. -term future is,probably not very amenable either along the way and appear to head in a desirable to rati6nal planning, or to accurate forecasting. , direction. (Some recent Malthusian andIlulian" ) , forecasts provide no such options.) The more difficiilt . , . , 1 are times in'the near -term future, the more crucial Will The Fu-tire of be a vision of what is worth building and where is / Futures Research worth going to. 14, ; 0Ix' , We return to the issue..1f, this transformational This is not, of course, to set the futuas researcher up interpretation and forecast.of the near- and midterm as some sort of technocratic.jndge of what is good for ruture isnot Completely fanciful, if the arguments the society. The aim, in,sisiad, is to help the society supporting it make a ,plausible case, then will OUP better judge what is good for itself. Seldom' has the futures research illuminate us: with regard to the ancient dictum been more pertinent, "Where thew N choices it -p,oes? no vision, the people, perish." 0 C. ; 1 e , t BIBLIOGRAPHY 424 Ayres, R. U., Technologic al Forec 1 ling and Long -Range Planning ht cEachron,N. B., Forces for Sorietal (New York: McGraw-NI, 196 parisformat ion in the United State, 1950-2000 (qtanflird Research Institute,EduNional t 841, D., The eOming*of Post.:1 austr Policy Research Ceriter,,,RN-12, 1971). , . Society (New York: Baste BoOks, 1973). ., . Meadows, D. U. D. L. Meadowi;Jorgeri R-anders, . , . I and W. W. Boldding.' K. E., The Meaningof tHe Tyen der/awry: The Great 04 Behrens III,'The Emits toGrowth (Washington, D.C.: `Potomac Associates, 1972). ,Traraition-(NevtY ork:tir.tper&lOw,964). # ,,,,,..0-,- ° Dep,riusenettIttalth,EducationkandWelfire,orin America, Michael, D. N. The Unpreftd Society: Planning fordiPrecarious -Future (New York: Basic Books, . -) .J. O'Toole (edap{Cambridge: MIT Press,19 1962). M umford, L. The Myth of tire,,Machine(New,Vork: Eflul, J., The TeAnolofludf Society(New York: AlfredA. Knopf, Harcourt Brace 1964). J ova n ovicit 1970). , Ferkiss, V.C., Technological Man: The Myth findthe Reali4(New Polak, F., To(va'rds the Goal of Goals," in R. Jungkand J. Galtu ng ' York: George Braziller, 1969) WO, Mankind 2A00 (London: Allen_and Uriwirif1969). .4, ,- 1 Forrester, J. W.,' World Dynamics Cambridge,Mass: Wight-. Puthoff, H., and R. Targ, unpublished manuscript. I, Allen Press, 1971). , e4'.4 ip.eve,).f. F. Without Marxor Jesus: The New American Revolution Fromm, E.1477ze Revolution of Hope (Nerorb Harper & Row, Has Begun (Garden City, -Netv YM13ouisleday,1971). 1968). r` Rhyne, R., "Projecting Whole-Body Future n. Patterns--The'Field Alion4ly Galbraith, J. K., Economics and. the PublicPurpose (Boston: Relaxation (FAR) Method" ,Stanford Research Houghton - Mifflin, 1973). tnslituteAducatiotial Policy Research Center,RM-10,1 970., Gordon, T:, and Hayward, "Initial Experiments with the Cross- Roszitk, T., tiller; the Wastela4inds(cardenCity, Nev l'.ork: 8, Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting," Flitiii;s, ..Dou bleday,197 Z. Vol. 1 I (December 1968), pp. 100-116. I % lk, J., The Survival of the Wisest (New York: . # Harper and Row, 1973). Gordon, T., and 0. Helmer, "Reporton a Long-Range Forecasting 4--, e. Studyy in 0. Helmer, Social Tichno)ogy (New York: Basic Sheppard, H. L., and R. Herrick, Where Have ,Books, 1966). All the Robots Gone? (New York; Free Press, I,972r. ..- - Harman, W. W., Alternative Future's andEducationgl ,Policy 1,1- heobaid, R,, The Economics of Abundance, (NewYork: Pitman, (Stanford Research Institute, Educational Policy Research 1970). * . Center, RM-6, 1970). . Wallace, A.F.C., "Revitalization Movements," AmerTcanV ;' Harman, W. W., "Context for Education in the Seventies," in Needs Anthropologist, Vol, 51t(1956), pp. 264-281. , of Elementary anciSecondary Educationfor the Seventies (U.S, " House, of Representatives, Committeeon Education and Yankelovich, D., ThirChaning,Values 'On airt),.us(New York: Labor, ,March 1970), pp. 351-363. Washilittan Squere..ikess, 1972). 1'"N 8 1 Aantschit*E., "Planning and, pesigningfor 44.-. Future: The FOOTNOTES "8 Brealtilloggh of the -SySteiiis. Approach," Sutures, Vol.' o , (SepteMber4969), pp. 440-444. -1 Polak, 1969, aescribek the recent battles atongecononstsover . . co ,the issue of whether fonomics should becOmea normative scien Johnson, D.: Revolutionary Change (Boston:Little, Brown& 1966). and the contemporary, arguments among %NA scientists.an , futurists, on the same point. . . - . Kahq, .; and B. Bruce-Briggs, Thingsto Come: ThinkiniA.bout :11I , a / : the '70's and '80's, (New York: Macmillan,1972). 2 This experiment dependsupon the .discogerylhat .it., a' r strobasoople.light at abolit ti flashes per,second-is shined in a Kahn, H., and A. J. Wiener, The Yeti,- 2006: ,' - if A Framewo1kYor "subjeCt's eyes,' a characteristic alphatomPonent appears inliis Speculation on the Neil Thirty-7711w rears r .1 . (New York: el4ctrbencepbalogyun-lnthe Puthoff-Targexperiment Maemillan,1967). at SRLtwo remotely isolated abjects'areused, Some prior Means of rap Kuhn, T., The Structure of Scientific &ions, 2nd edn. having Ileen established between titers?. The' lightis flashed i (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970).v., sqbject's eyes, and the other is askedto guess whether, in a given4) 1-- .interval,the light is on or qff. He.isunable to- guess- better than-a Markley, 0._ SV:, Changing Images of Man (Stanford Researp, charra,basis,liut the...telltale alpha voltagecomponegt.appears in his Institute; Center for the Study of Social Policy,RR-3, 1973)., ... d"EEG!The important 'deduction is that unconsciously he knows with -. '.'"a Ortainty, -hi an extrasensory.'way; when the.light Maslow, A., The Further Reaches of Human Nature (New is in Ihe.dtlter law.' York;_the ,person's eyes--teieqophile he o'denyingfitch Viking Press, 1972). :knowledge to his. ti consciousmind. 1/4 . 4 85 43 , , ., Chapter 8 4. r- O ForecAiting in Econonlics:.- r State -of- the -Art, Problems, and. Prospects . .. Victor,ZarnOwitz Concepts and Distinctions . Economic forecasts are statements about economic distinction is introduced here. Another useful differenL, aspects of unknOwn and uncertainevents. In its tiation is between forecasts of individual .events and broadest meaning, this would include inferences from those of certain classesor, sets of events, and known to.unknown events regardless of whether ( 1) the "pteaiction"issometimes appliedbroadly, with latter precede, coincide wilt', or follow the former and reference to the latter. nut. again this usage is not (2) the latter refer to the past, Present,'or, future. generally accepted, and I shall treat the terms forecast However, in this chanter foreCasts are defined in the and prediction for the most part interchansgeablya's jn narrower and more conventional sense, .namely, as. everyday language. propositions that always concern the "future," i.e4a. 'reach ahead in time from the "presepr which is the No strict identification of what is meant by things informational jump:off period for the predictor. "economic" need be attempted at this noint, fortunate- ly. The forecasts to ,be discussed'alter to .Because _data colleCtion and mocessing take time ,that processes o'r ',Clint of departure or' base of the forecast is itself activities that are commonly Understood-to belong in usually Ideated in the recent past, so that the calendar- the economic' sphere and to their statistical represen- . time "present" would already belongto the "future': tations _which are generally categorized as econtimie, that must be predicted; but the forecasts generally 'time-series data. Thus, in these applications at least,. reachbeyondt,he present into the chronological future the boundary between. economics and other social prof:Ter. -The'declu&ions, then,axe as a rule from the .sci nces appears. to be fairly cle r earlier to subsequent occutrences, and the latterextenilf Economieas well as oth,er forecasts vary greatly in beyond they point of time.when thestatenlent is made, form and content: they .can be qualitativeor quan- A Clearly, it is the future that is of primary concern to titative, conditional or unconditional, 'explicit orsilent the forecaster and his audience in economics and other -on the probabilities'inyolved. A minimum requiie:: Social sciences, ai it; meteorology or technological .mentjawever, is that the forecast at least in PrinciPle innovations. Information about- the past is, often must be verifiable. Trivial predictions that are so wad inadequate, but it is virutally always richer and-firmer or vague that:they could never be falsified irierif than-whatever may be "knowable" about the future. In consideration, and the same applies to preclictiOns.that.' fact infeiences from the past are the sole tisicsource are rendered meaningless by reing on entit'ely. for the expectations of those eventslhat are beyond.the improbable assumptions. - forecaster's eontrol.,..Turthern4e, the accuracy of , ;:these-expectations is certainly a major determinant of One can further ..dislingilish ke,tweeiii sin lei0 the of plans and decisions relating, to factors multiplepredictions, dePending ,Whepettiti over which the maker or user of the fgrecajfiloes have forecast refers to,one-partictilatOteveral inteiTeWteci substantial. control, - events;' and4etiv.ee point:* .intejlakp:redi9tiOns,, -depending okVheiier .the';:fdreciit, ideMifie In its scientific uses, the word "prediction" has value ..or a range of values_ likely toit:te...44a commonly, itibugh not inevitably, the general meaning certain variable,. These categories o,verl4p.-ik, defined,at theRitset in this chapter', bin this embraces., (ways, and some of their possible cogibinati Its ace forecasts of fhture events,' so no.-ilfict terminologiCal ,interesting. For example, an unconditional,terVal. ; , as . o , I . - . -predictioncan be viewed as a sett-OffondiliOnal point revised. In all these researchapplications,too, short Predictions., that is, the forecaster estimates the range and long forecasts alike are of interest.However, long of prbli'able outcomes by setting 'loins to the variation fo'recastsarseparticularlydiffic It -in-the, underlying conditions. to verify and . evalitate, because much,timemus pose beforethey can be confronted with "facts." M ch change in the . . Looking into the future, econorrlicforecastsmay be classified into short run (withspans or distances, to the state of the 'world is likeiY-to occur anwhile, and the target period of up to one or two years), intermediate. assumptions of the forecastmay well be invalidated. (two to five years), and long-term (retating td more . -Important generalizationsof economictheory, persistentdevelopmentsordistant occurrences). typically imply qualitative conditionalspzedictions;for Random events and seasonal .changesinfluence. example, the "laW of demand" predicts that economic variables and relations most forcefully a decline in over the price of a good will lead consumersto'plarchase relatively short periods(measurable in days, 'weeks,or more of the good:. Suchirelations help tOforrnulat months); cyclical processes worknhemselves out Much . forecasting modelandto test the general more slowly (in years); indirend consistency factors account for of.these models with the implicationsof theheory of "secular" developments, notably economic growth the (presumably prevalent) rational economicbehav- phenomena of long duration (decadeS).. Forecasts ior. But specific quantitative prediction,which is the, spanningeriods limited to several monthsor quarters, Main subject matter of thiSessay, requires many other are attempts to predict the more systematiccorn- inputsjudgmental,historica,and statisticalin ponentsof near-term economic cliangesseasonal addition to the general insights of economic,theory. and. particularly, cyclicawhich° must beisolated 1 fromShorterirregular.,:niovements. In the History of economic thoughtone also finds Intermediate broad predictions' forecasts with spans of severalyears would pay more of -things to'ine whichare . attention to trends, while aiming alsoat any broad essentially empirical hypothesesbases)on assumptions that may only have theen valid initially cyclical swings in the 'target, variables.Long-term. or not at all. forecasts in economicsare essentially trend projections Secular forecasts bysome classical and socialist that abstract from cyclicalas well as shorter, seasonal economists provide several majdr examples,such as thelaw . of hiStorically .diminishin'g and erratic,'hanges.,- , returns,the ; Malthusian. pohlatiori principle; and Marx's prOjee- f, tionS of a falling rateilof profitand _increasing $ourCes and,Uses. pauperiiation,and crises: 'History.dealt harshly with , some bf, tliese. Prognosti.cationsand left some others untested by events unceitin Or of dubtousinterest. t* Forecasts in all ranges are made, for , purposes of ' - *, -;h' : / business planning and of aiding economic'policies .,..,t: f , . of The, verdicts- of_htstory pn recordedforasts- of - goverriments.,13usines$ forecasts deal,largely with the economic (and d-Other) trend's andevents can in general . . -near future because this is both whatis. most needed be "ascertained:. retibSpeCtiVerY, ,:thoughnot. always and what stands a relatively good chance, VsuCtesi-in unambiguously. The ,inflitence of forecas1sf(expec- "the reduction df avbidahle i __,; busineSs risks. flewe'ver;in .'tatiOas' ) onhurnan:attAtideband actions and.hence on some areas, such as planning new Industrial plant the course of histoiy4S'nlehnurkier.There are sharp' construction br acquisition ofnew huSitiess, projec- contrasts betwgen:ttierealms of Clio and Delphi,ut tions of 'ratter long developments' 'Are required i" and alialtiporiantif:subtle interactions:ilnlike.history, 'Made with aPparently increasing (btu undoubted)y which dealsWith,PtesUrnably knowable butimmutable Isqlitite-varying) -boldness find' sOPhiiilcation. With'the facts:, -,.,fdregastmg,...-cOpcernecl with unknoWnbut recent emphasis on groth, whether. viewed POSitiVely kababte and ?4!4:20iiiially'controltableevents_ to as economic stirluilant' Or negatively ,come: 11 i34-:010,k-thinking about andPlanning for depressantlong -range forecasts ,also are:gaining the ftittre;_a:ritia*,vberet;y one triesto impose some siound as-tools ofgoVernniental and -Other organlik ' ifienta\Lclistiptine..On what is inevitably,hypothetical ocial planning.,:ailirdeci4ionmaking., ,-. and. Oonte014-0Vsre: II..,- ____.,:, .,,,. ; ! PrincipalscientifiC and' 'academic use of .-'_;_o:-.;eCast- 4,-fha;,riot6111Y:these :variousbona fide/ 4orecasts is in testing theyariOus hypotheses, models, ptirp_OSTeSiilt: 1.1'ses,btti alsolome dubious, ones. -Some/, ; : ancrthethods-cmployedoby the forecaster. Predictions forecasts: are at Wast:Pecasipallyandsecondarily.usetd ` of,,econornic phange.also can serve as .data for studying, s a ple.rt.Oft:O'ommunicong intentions-and infltien7.,/ the ways. expectations are formed, tranitnitt4:44- . cing,IOPiniOn;:W1tieh* may bias themor make thsv/ ..;. 41 / * . , other% i?e questionable. The extent sand effects of such and its general preference has been fob' unconditional, practices are; not sthiiiistngly difficult to appraise. In specific, numerical\ predictions., Governmont macroforecasting (for the economy as hole) there pplicy makers:constitute another sizable source of the seems to be little scope and reason for outright and demand, but their main need is fez rorecasts con- deliberate mrsuses... This is.so 01, part beCause much of ' ditioA nal upon alternative policy co..urScS.. is .sufficient cOngcpsa among the the -time th ile Changes contributing* the groWth andspecializa-, .in this field, whose views are widely professiona tion of forecasters' output occurred also on thstipply.. theextremely.optimisticor disseminaed,for side of the, market fOr new "economic' intelligence.!; pessithis lc forecasts.beyond the range of the consensus, Therapiddevelopment of .electeonic computer to be hs avily discounted. Microforecasts, especially pf technologyraclerated greatly the rate of output of com any sales and Profits, can affect the publics economie'datac(the raw materials for tbe forecasting ev ctations of the firm:s value and hence stock prices; process).Also,thedevelopmentoflarge-scale, a nd' they would seem'to be less subject to knciwledeable, econometric forecasting models could hardly have ex ante, evaluations/by outsiders; they-ant-therefore gotten anywhere 'near its -prIsent stage without the (exposed to possible manipulation and , much more computer. distortion. Howe ter, itis well to add,ag..once a caveat: the Economic fcifecasting' in the United States is a proliferation of the forecasts need not inply that their sizable and highly diversified° "industry': which has quality has greatly imprOed.' The evaluation of grown rapidly in the past-World War II period and will forecasts, which will be discussed later, apparently 1pgs .probablycontinue to grow! A large majority of its far behind the production of forecasts. ,The Main members/are business economists whosemaidrunction 'reason for this is probably 'that the latter activity, is is to, proVide information that should hell) toimprovfr more attractive or,rewarding than the former, In any managerial decisions.' Other forecasters work fa' event, there is also much hard workyet.to be done em gsaverninent.agencies,labor unioif :andtrade Rroblems of the proper -criteria 'and Methods of associations. A relatively small but influential.group . . forecast evaluation. , cofists of economists who also teach and study in the . . Natio 's unnersines and researchinstitutions. In other The halards %of economic 'forecasting are well major industrial countries with large business enter .know,p. They are often compounded by the fact that prise sectors, priNate macroecOmtmic forecasts are a .mans' aforecastet serves 'a number of different masters. yet much less abundant and anNtious, but "trend trite works for business or gavernment,puch of his similar to those in U.S. forecasting are here and the output is communication to the administratorowho detectable and apt to assert themselvest.generally. employs him,'Intt some of it is being done for the outtide world--7peers, professionals, and the interested Specific quantitative prediction is of much mo 15 uglic, Again, an econometrieinodel developed at a in economics than predittion in the : recent 'origin * university May serve as a basis fob scientific, work and general sense (which, as already indicated, is among also as a source of forecasts circulated to business the oldest products of economic thought).' Systematic! subscribers: Aggregate foreecastsby the economic staff. Pumerical forecasting of economic time series had to of a corpolation are a major input to microprediations gaff the development of empirically oriented researc ' of sales a d the.like, and are also used in the,company's its statistical and. mathematical tools, Forecasts publications and, speeches byits executives. Tlte , nom ic conditions not only grow greatly in numbers .forecaster usually faces all sorts of conflicts of eviden6e .the last two decades; but they also became much and opini9n, which his essentiay conjectural .work r 'definite And detailed. Vague, liedged,-'or purely mud often resolve 'by various compromises. The -qualitat predictions of "what's ahead for ,business' mul *puppose nature . of Many forecastd may';,ytom- are still'quhe corrtmon, bat they no longeLdorninate. piic te the-situation considerably t y bringing forth : Also, attempts are increasingly made to predict the some conflicts of interest as well. course of the economy over a sequence of sh rtl' . 4., , periods, e.g., -.the four or six eve s ahead;arld is represehts.a particularly ambitibUs, dynamic" typ Types and Methods Of Forecasting ftlrecasting. , Th:: , 1... ., -...., . . .EfRnomic forecasts can tbe classified by several Thesedelopmentsreflect an increased and . diversifiedemand for economic forecasts. Business diff ent criteria. One is the degree to which they tilt manageine t hat a very targe share in that demand, fornia *zedmethods vis-a-visinformal judgment. ,$,, - Stillanother distinctionisbetweenforecasts constructed by a shrgle-scrurcer which couldbe an ndividual or a team (say, the staff of aibusinessor overnmem agency), and forecasts derived as weighted unweighted averages of such predictiOns..The latter gory would include both small-group forecasts and opinion polls. Of particular interest here isthe to which .the forecasts are macropredictidns single. sourceor averages of macropredictions egates of micropredictions from different For exainpte,1 forecast of total business, enditures (say for the United States in 1978) ) a product of one' per-soil A; (2)some obal predictions by individuals A, B, and r may not interact; (3) the aggregate of plans of business concerns about their tlays, based on a survey;or (4)' a' umber of different forecasts of the omic forecasts that are actual.), ss , and public, policy uses are f judgmental combinations of ion. This a forecast of GNP may incorporate extrapola; arget series to 'known or, - riables, external ififorma- ssmen's, and consumers' budget estimates, and. . r. Pure forms Of any of any well-defined as benchmarks of .N ex ante forecasts . he Currently most h can be'broadly urveys of intn- scle'indicatcris4, 4 thods wou1 0 but soma . ate the, , they deals- les. . ble he .t, last-known change fin the series. Ole> are employed 'Sweyejs of antztipaito s or intentions. The callec- . mainly as minimdm standards against which to troll and es, aluation of exnectational.data for the 4,S. measure the performance of forecasts proper. Since economy .progressed at altrapid pace in the last.two; trends are common in many ecOnor$tc time series *cleca de The data relate to future consumer, purchases t:s begause of the pervasive effects of 'grolvth .in _the (primarily of.autoinoba; And household appliances), econorny, "tretjf extrapolations Often provide more ,planned or anticipated buishess expenditures In plant effective predictions and are therefore more demand- and _equipment; business expectationsabout ing as criteria forreca4tinaluation Particularlyt, in ",operating variables" such as sales ,and inventories, application to Ion -term fo ecasts, ti'6nd fitting and arid' government budget estimates. Similar suiyeys ... projectionsarewidely 'u ed.Strictlyperiodic, .;lime spread recently in other major industrial coun- repetitivefluctuations are, like persistenttrends, tries. - relatively. easy 'toextrap late;stableseasonal i Business expectations have been cfassjfied into movements would often be approximately of this type. intentions (plans for action wherg2the firm can make For sequences of successive point predictions, a binding decisions), market anticipations (relatineto tommon form of economic forecasts, the requirement ,theinterplaybetween thefi m's actions andits . of a good foreost is that it predict \ken the ly stematic suppliers, customers, etc.), and outlook. (concerning mos, vments. in ' not that it fptedict perfectly the actual conditions which the firm ca not significantly in- %alttes ofthe series in questibn. Economic time series fluence, but which do affect its m rkets). For Ahiple as a mule contain random elements:and the forecasting new appropriations or plans fcapital dutlays fall errors thatare traceable toNeelythort random into the first category; sales forec sts, into the second; movements must be accepted As unas:yidable. Such and forecasts of the general &on., is situation.in the "shocks" as an outbreak of a war pr e strike started . United States.and abroad, into ththird. without advance yarning cannotthemselves be Consumer inrations to buy are n principle akin to predicted individually Nivith.the tools of economics and business pla statistics, although -their effects on the economy are, of o acquire productivresources, but_ in practice they are often more vague a d attitudinarand course. the; .proper 'concern of the, forecaster.In.* probabilistic predictions, which aim at the distribution usually less firmly budgeted: °Gov rnment businesS of *unknown paratheters and outcomes rather than at estimates also represent intentionso spent(of.the ,point forecas.ts of future events, the consequences of administration, subject to legislativ4 approvals). ,In the shocks.aaeother random errors are an iniportant government, as in many large,busines companies, the ° part of thg system to beanaiyzed.5 ,,. .process of formjhg "expectations" orrecasts is often ' highly-decentrplized,and complex. . ,.,,s,4,-' It is thecyclicalfluctuationsinecOheinic It is plausible that the accuracyof exp tational data -, procesesrecurrent btu' nonperiodic and varying - greatly in duration and amplitudethat produce thie 'Will tehd to be higher the greater the de ree. of control that those -holding the expectations h ve over the, Breastdifficulties in short-termforecasting. 2 variable concerned. this suggests that t \SmOothing techniques can reveal the past patterns of e predictive value of intentions on the whole sh uld be reater than _ systematic changesindeseasonalized series, and extrapolations can help the forecaster in his task to the that of market anticipations and th t the 1tter in turn, .extent that they preserve these PattertA and to the should be more accurate than the outloo,forecasti. ...-, There is some evidence consistent 'with this view, -: 'extent mat ,fhe patterns continue to° apply. But -in regard to economic and related sociil events, the future irgably the fact thAtibusiness,pticipatio of 'plant .. seldomreproducethepastWit,houtsignificant and equipmtnt expenditures ., have- a mu h better fore'casting record than business sales.atrtications.7 _ . modifications.. Thus extrapplatiohs are often very However, such comparisons are sometimesodified.. ,- ,good in predicting trends :but incapable of giving dependable_ signals acyclical changg and particularly by other relevant factors, such as the variabiliti s orthe, . predicted series and span of forecast. Predicti.s of a turning points. . . r . very stable aggregate, classifiable as outlook,.ay be The .best extrapolative models are statistically more accurate than market anticipations for a v'able sophisticated products pf pure time-series analysis a.5 Which is highly volatile. Surveys lookineare eugh represented by the recently developed techniques for. ° ahead, even for largely "controllable" Variables, w II be) optimal characterizations of discrete linear processes.6 in the nature of market anticipations and les Alf Predictions with these models establish vrather high intentions, iqid they may .yield worse forecasts. t an, stanclArds'of accuracy for the economist's foregatts. outlook surVeys for the very near future. . . -.. .. 1 - . - , , 101 4;. a - Expectations presUmably tend to draW'ori historical approximately the general evel of economic activity evidence, such as exA'ap,olationsand inferences from whose Inajor fluctuations are defined's thebusiness obserVed.relations,betweendifferenteconomic cycle. Not surprisingly, therefore, these, ompreltensive variables. But they may: often; as a retult of expert. indicators.are "roughly coincident3,s The leaders insight 'or mike intuition, ,include some additional include variables' that. anticipate firoduciion and . information not contained in any patterns of past. erriployment, such as the, average hours owork per Hence, even where expectations are not very efficient week, job vacancies, new bunting pertnits,ew ortleri ,. . when used alone. asa direct forecast, they may still have for goods made in response to t'prior often or . .<, .. anet predictive value as an ingredient in a forecasting commitments to buy ,(mainly. for durables and, (7 , ;4''proceis that combines expectational withother inputs. espeCiaflyu capitalequipmedt),', akl contracts for Inside or expert knoWledge is 'particularly valuable in industrial and commercial platits. the execution of forecasting variable the successiye changes in which new investment orders aikl contracts takes time, so are largely independent, where one's ability to forecast' business expenditures on plant, and equipment. is a such changes is not significantly enhanced by any roughly coincident o slightlylagginnseries.. i .,,. r.. extrapolations of the past movements.8 - Another type of sequence ariieslirom the fact that a la long-term forecasting, ,informed judgment .dr' stockseriesOftenundergphs .retardationbefore r. expectations" 1514a majorrole along with ex- reversal; hence the corresponding flop series (or rate of trapolative techniques. In large p.art, these forecasts .change in the stock) tendsstomtnahead.of the stock. k are growth projections, which have been aescribed as Thus inventory changes lead at business cycle turns, tools-for exploring econois potentials. They are not while total inventories lag. Still:other sequences relate . intended to provide predictions o actual conditions in 'downturns income indicatorsO upturns in others. For. a distant year, but rathei estimates 1 likely conditions antple; the decline in inventories lags behind 'and is a nder some specified suppositions. ternative projec- sible 'consequence' of ,the ;downturns in such ons are often made, tiased on assum 'tions of several, co rehensive measures of tcondmic activity as GNP, d , ferent paths of economic developmis within the indus rial production, an ;manufacturing and trade ra\ge considered plausible. Essentially, die forecasts sales. B it the downturn in inventories also. leads, and are\ concerned with trends of the econo- at full May be contributing' to, the later,upturns in,these and emp \, ythent, and they make large rise ofaojec ons on 44 other series (as the need for the Stoelts to be ultimately the s \. ply side, of population; labor forgtechnogy,. replenished will stimulate orders and help to bring , , . , prodo\ tivIty, etc. , about the nex business recovery), Such considerations BustI, cycle indicators. 'These are: time serie suggest that the. oinciders and laggers are not merely useful as confirmu selectedr, the relative consistency oftheir timing at 'indicators; they also play inactive -role as links inthe ntinitous rdrind of business cycle texivals aNO recessions in&Feral. ecOinomic activity, developments. . with cons'kt. ration being also give,n.to other'criteria, ' . . namely, theecqnonuc significande tthe,buiitness- Some 'economists, fo kowing the massive work on cycles contexstatistical'adequacy; historical confors . ney by Milton Friedm n and his associates, see in Mitytogenratmovementsoftheeconomy,,, chies in ,money sui5ply major casual factor in smoothness, ancurrency. The indicators are used in buiin ss cycles.'0 In view of thi\s hypothesis, which is in analyzing and orecastingshort-ter-dieconomic the cenr of a vigorous debate ,;)n issues of economic. develop ntents genally, btit mainly for predicting the theory a Oblicy, the serieof rates of change in the cyclical tuAting po'Is. Several successive selections, major inbtory aggregates.deseryea,special emphasis. based-Onstudies ofundreds of economic time series TheSe indica ors show long leads andIatlitr pronounc- and reviews, of the reIts, Were made at the National ed irregular,c mponent movements. Bureau of Economic ' - : On the whole, the ead. time provided byb the il The 4ndicators are css classified by ,economic indicatorsis short, so that often, especially when the process and by'characteriis i.e:, according to economy shifts its coarse in a relatively:abrupt manner, whether they tend to lead;ineide, or lag it business the best obtainable resultpems to, be,to recognite the 0 cycle peaks. and troughs. Tchoice. of the series in. cyclical turning point at aboutthe time it is reached. , reach category, while base d the first instance,cta'7Even(his is not a negligible achieiiement, however, histOcal evidence, is. also gerally supported, by. sincerevivals andrecession's ,arenot generally ecohOrnic theory and logic: Thus\heagg.regative series 4_,recogn1/2zed as,suCh until severalmonths after they have on prpduction, employment, a,income measur. occurfed. ,Thuahe use of indicators does help. < , 4.- . 9.1 102 t. 1 ae c , , \ . significantly: to reduce the lain the recognition of , Measuring aggregate 'economic activity have ,recently . major chanles in ,the business.tie. .. ;,', 'come 'to attract a great deal of attention.. However, ..k', A - The.g reates_t difficulty many features: of the-Historical., business cycles in ing indicators for -,, . . - ., , ' forecasting-purposes arisesf rom t (sequences of generalised expansions and contrac-. \ e fact that the trend , and cyclical ,movements in these series are typically tion reaPf3ear-intthe recent gtowth cycles-. This overlaid Andoftenobscured by short-pehod applies, iniparticular, to the t,,cming sekttences involving variations,partly of seasonal but ainly of randotrr the leading and the,Other indicatorsP ' ' , natureHence the need, but a)so he persistent and What this suggests is that the indicator approach is hard proem, to establish On theurrent basis the likely to continue to be useful in a world in which the 'direction which the indicators. are moving gr the.probability of groivth'cycles g eat4y exceeds that of the dates of th ir cyclical turning Poi ts. The leading historical pecession-prone) siness cycles..Howeer,.. indicators in particular, are .highly' sensitive', to all that approach, having been cievis eto observe the kindi of sliort:term influences and 'not Only'to. the latter type of, economic fluctuations, needs to be forces making for 'the general cyclical movements. adapted fOr a more effidieht observatiefitof the forrner. ,They have anticipatedparked retardations robustness' ' , activityas well as full-scalerecessions (absolute Econoinetric models. These are systems of equations . designed tb represent quantitative relationships amo41z. declines). It is apparently very difficult to distinguishin . edonomidl variables. Here our interest' is in those advance between these differetit episodes, even tfor , highly , Willed. analysts;Certainly no nreplanical,.e models that concentrate on major aggregates, uch as I income d d "nest- replicable method of applying the indicators,has teen ' , able to do the job.' menti pritijOyhient and unemployment the pliclevel, . 4. etc., and also alm.actracing the behavior over tie of : ind+ors occasionally fail-to signalthe these variables. These models serve thepurposeOf approach of e general business feversrilin'd their leads, explanation and control as well as predictithrthey often vary a great deal, over tune. The evidence of.0 employed in .testingmacroeconomic hypothes groups of indicators, is corrsideied to be on the whole, simulating the effects of alternative.policies,-an more sellabte than the evidence of Any single indicator. forecasting hanges, in the economy'. fi Accbrdingly, the degree of consensus' in the ehavior of . these The. equatiOns in, econometric moceTsslescribe the . series .attractscbrisideiableattention from forecisters..Tio measures of the consensusare loose, behavior' a consuinets, .producers, inyestors,,,,and namely: (1) composite indexes for grotipsof indidators other groups of economic agents; they a licitlescribe the by timing (and, for trig leading sdries, by .market -characteristic's, ihstitutional condition's, and economie process), with amplitude and tjenad technological requirementg that guide and constrain justments designed to 'allow for some diffetlencein economic actions The variables'. are selected 'to dimension behavior, -and t12) diffusion indes -,represent the major systematic factors etitering each.: which show dieercentage of series -in a given -g'oup .function, and their net marginal efttN are treatedas. . - . that afe expanding -each, successive time per unknown (as a rule, constant) parameters..Tbelatter These kdexes are now available regularly, along witha are estimated on the\assiimption that ..411 principal large number of'individual 6yclical indicators and deteriginanti, in the relationship have be.eh properly other economic time-series andaltalytical measures, in identified, leaving only randbin'disturbances with ._ Business Conditions Digest:(BCD), a compendium gf,4 expected values of zero.Ideally,theseresidual chafti and tables published monthlj, by the U.S. disturfOicess terms shduld not serially DepartMent. of Commerce; Bureau of Eo_6nomic correlatetl, and independent of thesY,tematic factors. Analysis. All these so-called structural, equations) (then,are Economic fluctuations have-definitely become stochastic; i.e., supposed to hold only approximately milder in die Post-Ws:4d WaII period in the,United tip to a random error. In contrast, the remaining':' States and, even more, in other highly derreloped- e'uations of the Model, are accounting "identities," marketeconornies (Western Europe and 304V:where which are based on definitions and are .therefore ...slowdowns in the rate of growth of total spending and supposed,to hold exactly and include nq influioWn p,arameterk -1 i come have eargely °replaced stistaineddeclinesin the t . lev Is Of these aggregates.' I Hence the "growth cycles" Thp,va4bles Whpsevalues are determinidpby the .4y that show up only in the rates of growth and in the . m, areealled the jointly, dependent or current deviations from trends of, the comprehensive series en enous variables; their number equals that of Ale 92 10'3 . -1* t , ° 'I ; equations in the Complete systehr. Tofiolve fdr the incorrect specifications .of econqmic,relationShips, (2) variahletleachof fhein is expressed as a-function of the' deficient Methods of statisticatinferencel (3) sampling, estimated structural parameters, the disturbances, arid' 'errors in the, pa ineter estimates,. and (4) errors the predeterMined variables. The latter comprise both' resulting frong tO lssu'mptibir that the disturbance, to.,the valuei of the exogenous variables determined, terms vanish,' *- - :, : outside the model and.the lagged-.values of the. ,4. . endogenous variables given by the- past operation a The -Severity; tefkors due,tosampling - Variationsan4 the system (or,for some purposes, by outs* inefficiency of e'S ation carisherevabuated by means of estimates). Government policy-and fOreign countries' statistical int-ere as to the probabilistic meaniniof actions,demographic changes,- and other 'non- the pacarneter estates, the goodness. of fit to the economic' variables-are usually trelted asexogenoets. saniple-feriOd 'data, and the-autocorrelation charac- teristics..bf the- distujtance terms. Msperfirations,. .Models which containlagged endogenous variables howev er, are clearly the'clecisive sciurcrof errors as far are dynamic in the sense that the values they predict as the model *ell' is concifned, and they are difficult to depend on .the" historicaV,yalues generated by the identify'and asseps. Theoretical ainsidelations and the system. In otherwoids, the olution of suCkmodels_can predictive value of the triodel provide the main clues in yield trendsand cyclical, movements even without' dealing with these matters, but large, and complex . changes in the parameters, disturbances, or exogenous models, in particular, pqse many detailed specification factorsNonlinearitiesinvariablei- (butnotin "problems that theory and empirical research have not pammeters),appear, in. most of the contemporary full- yet been abletoesolve. , scale models. - , The. comprehensive models for the icbnoiny. as'w. The econometric models thathave had been, whole, are typically simultaneous equation systems,. developed in thg recent past for the economies of tI4 le they are based Cm. the concept of general United.States and many other countries vary greatly in interdepende'nceand thus include elements of interacS: size and complexity. to illustrate this diversity, among tions among current endogenous variables. _Much the smallest U.S, models is one consisting of four :jimpler single-,equation and recursivemOcp. can be structural equations and an identity. In el:intrust, the used to analyze relationships with, unidirectional flows. largest U.S. model, developed by,20 economists for the ,ofcause and effect: any endagenous variakle depeilds Brookings Institution, contains 230 equations and 104 a "elogenous,variables. This and Other 14e.models'are on predeterinined variables only.. - . quarterly, viher as their predecessors were generally It is the jointly determined estimates of the current' annual, and as such considerably less usefA for end6kenous variables, all of which are functions'of the purposei of cu'rrept economic analysis and forecasting. prede4ermingd variables, with given parameter e timates ,and disturbances typically (but*not always)s For the most part, the models 'are ttuilt around the assumed to be zero, that represent the foresting structure- of national income accounts, a basic output or the 4reduced, form" -of the model. 4f the framework that is widely used in noneconometric predetermined variables are taken as given,-say at their an.atyses and forecasts as. well. Most models also reported values, "ex post" predictions conditional incorporate Major notions of Keynesian economics upon these data-can be made from the reduced-form. such as themultiplier",c1Tects'on spending and income, -Unconditional-"ex ante,Wrecasts of the 'endogenous of changes in government purchases 'and' private, .variablesare obtained when the unknown values of the ihvestmefit expenditures, the dependence of personal consumption ondispdsable income of households; and predetermined. variables are themselves predicted (which fo'r the exogenous factors necessarily means tlie functions linking tax revenges and 'imports to prediction outside the model),6 . income and some other variables. A few modeligive a,4 good deal of ,actention to the monetary-financial sector of the economy,' and thus to, the consequenCes of - hus,unconditional forecasts could have substantial errors because ,of wrong projeCtiOns of exogenous monetary policy, but-most place greater emphasis on. the fiscal policy, i.e., the role of government purchases,, variables, eveng the specification and solution of the taxes, and transfer paynteuts. . ,model were essentially'corred. Theaccuracf of the conditiOnalvforecasts, on the other, hand, depends _The deciiions, on the precise form and content of the (apart from any effects of errors in4the data inptits) equations (4, whether to estimate the model in terms ., 0, Only On the errors that Occur in the .rconstruction and of levels,or changes, what discrete or distribute lags are solution of the model. These may arise because ofI). r 1 .toThe used, etc) often result from much experinwta- . t _ ,- tin with ..altergative% hypotheses and specifications. successes or failuresin- forecasting be'due more to While itis usually impossible, to frvoid 'such ex- chanCe than to the quality of the forecaster'askill;And plorationswithoutsacrificingpoisible gains of _tools, Also, individual predictions can suffer from information, the °atonic for the. sample Situation-may excusable errors'. in assumptions about exogenous, . thereby be significantly biased. Thii. underscores the perhaps nonedonomic, events;or, conversely, they ca need for Predictive tests, of .the =deli, based bn happen to be relatively precise in 'spite of being based -.. applicatians to nonsample periods. on wrong premises (i.e., they can be"correct f or-wrqng , - . reasons," which usually. involves offsetting errors). \ However; if a forecaster's, recbrd.is poor on the average , Evaluating the Forecasting' ever time, itis unlikely to be so only because of Record and Prospects ..-- consistently wrong assumptions (and, if it were, this 7 . . .. . A would hardly be an accepfable excuse)...... * Foree*aits must be *Party evaluated if their-akers Judgin on the results of recent stud ies,16 forecasts !are to learn from past errors and if theirusers_ar_e tube of GNP ariddustrfal proddettatimaae late in theyear able fo discriminate intelligently arhonohe available for the year aad have fp) the most part been more' 'sources and methods., For a long time efforts to' -test accura\te than simple xtra olations of the fast level or economic forecasts systematically have been lagging the-he and iirojec onS of trends and of relationships " behind the production .of 'the forecasts, buCthe _between presentnd past values of the series in' 'resulting serious. inbalafice is being gradually cor- question. Asavery general rule, the averages and rected.15. . , dispersion of- errors in economic short-term predic- k1, . 1 . . V tions (fori,onWriix quarters ahead) increase with the' In principle the decisionmaker who knows the costs' time span to the target period. Forecasts for one to . of 'acqifiring and using the forecast and the returns three quarters ahead are in most case's better (in 'the attributable toit should .be able r tb evaluate the sense of having smaller' average errors without regard goodness of the forecast exactly in retrospect. But suclli to sign) than many ty_peof mechanical extrapolations, . knowledge is rare,-because is it difficult and Co:stly-fo but the longer forecisits within the'txamined range are dev'el'op Tullythe information required. However, it often worse than the prodUCts of the more effective of often poSsible to measure meaningfully the accuracy of the emplOyed benchmark models (autoregressive and w% forecastsby comparing% the predicted wi J.Lz_,,tht e trend projection Presumably, each of the various -j subsequently recorded actual outcomes; and it seernSr,... ingredients or sources of foiecasts, .suchas signals from natural to view the overall' accuracy of a given set of anticipations surveys, cyclical indicators, econometric predictions as_ the .principal single, aspect of their '-relations; and the forecaster's judgment, are subject to quality. Other important aspects of quality are more adeterioration with the*Iengthening of the predictive difficult eo assess, so users, confronted withcorn- span. - ... parable forecasts, tend rationally to prefer those from a- ) source which tias proved significantly mare accurate in __Many forecasts tend to underestimate the growthof the past. , , - the economy, that istthey predict too small increases in '' 1 .- . . t::- , -such comprehensive series asl-eal GNP, employment, _Ideally:forecasts should I5e unbiased and efficient; and industrial _production. Inflatipn also is often that is, their average error should be approximately underestimated tvhich adds to the effort '61' GNP and zero (no, systematic under- or overestimation), and componeoti.in current dollars), and Changes in Price. there. should be no significant correlation between --level-ixesare* in general rather poorly predicted... errors and forecast values. This is becaus-ethE--The uency of such 'errors, -suggests to e forecaster should learn from' past errors how to avoid'. observers that forecasters tend to be too titd or- bias and inefficiency. In practice, however, cautious (which, in a growing economy, much ofthi economic forecast series are not long enough or not time would amount, to,,rgative pessimism op. real consistent enough to permit successful measurement growth but optimism on 0on inflation). . of, let Slone correction for, the " systematic" error \ components. Errors in predicting percentage changes in persOnal ,consumption expenditures tend to be tonsidirably Whenever possible,it is desirable to study the. -smaller than ' those.in cekrresPOnding !Demi' sk of, `average performance of a forecasting source, model, or private investmest -outlays, 'Whileerrors in precli4g , method.' over a reasonably long stretch of time, *governMent spending tend to be of intermediate `site - indtiding diverse economic developments. Isolated The forecasti of total GNP are often better than those . ,. *.e., 4 . of most major NP components from the same source,' qualitative and quantitative analyses of,squrces and which Indicates a partial cancellation of errors For the causesof errors: Butthisrequires much more components Iri sum, smoothly .grov.ing atkegates, information on how the forecasts are produced than is such as consumption of nondurablegoods and sell, ices ,available for many types of economic prediction. (which account for a large, part orGNP),arein general Detailed information of this sort is,scarce and costly much more accurately predicted than the more sOlatile and difficult to assemble. Most of the forecasts are of . series, such as several major investment categories, the eclectic vanety favored -by Business ec6nomists" particularly change .in inventories. To be sure, the 4they use in N ary ing combiRation,s models of ec6notnic former variables are easier to predict than the latter, relationships, anticipatory data, cyclical indicalqrs, being much more amenable: tosatisfactoryex-. and judgMents about the probable effects of recent an_ d tiapolatio,ns Thus good, trend projections for con- pected events. It is usuallyus very hard, even for t sumption are better than some economists' forecasts: tecaster himself, to decompose and reconstruct s which suffer from underestiziation errors. Changes in predictions in numerical detail, and the cost may often the lel& growth-dominated prod more fluctuating series be prohibitive. areseldom,systematically- under-estimated(or overestimated). and here the forecasts'compare on the Econometric foreZasters use models that are much whole more favorably with mechanicaltextrapolations. more specific, explicit!, and formal. However, they must project the exogenous variables, and these ForecAsters face problems Of varying nature and: predictions are essentially judgmental though often difficalty in dealing v.jth diffefent types of economic derived with the aid of various extrapolations. In change -The prevalence of growth trends in the addition, the ex ante forecasts in this crass typically economy makesitrelativelysafeto predict the incorporate judgmental adjustments pf the computer continuation of a business (expansion through Much of Solutiqns'octheinodels. Data on these inputs to, and its progress, but a reasonably accurate f6recast of K hen alterations of, the models are frequently unasail.a.ble or a current expansion is going to-end is hard to make, incomplete. They need to be systematically _recorded esen user a rather short span-of time. The declines in and analyzed in the interest of better understanding of the comprehenstel series of income, and the-performance arfd potentialof econometric model spending are much es; frequently Underestimated than forecask t, the increases. May are initially missed, and some Where the informanot has been collected, the turns are predicted that do not occur. Forecasts of analysis indicates that the forecasts have been in many troughs are in general better tha'n those-of peaks, a 1 casessubstantiallyimproved by judgmental ad- tendency whicit can be exPlained by the distribution of justments of the modeli.18 Errors-in the specifications durations of expansions and contractions-On the of the models and, in the forecastsrof the exogenous . whole, the abilits A106. O .1? . rank the items in a short list .of general forecasting .becaIse of their far and wide horizons..If:several techniqueiaccordingto -, their'ownworking conditional projections based bn different'assump- preferences. More than half of them rank as first the tions:are provided, which of them should be treatedas '"informal GNP model," in which the major expen-' preferred ? -.The answer is aptto be uncertain or diture components of the -gross national product are . arbitrary, unless givenexanie by the forecasterhimself predicted in various ways. combined intoan 'overall (who.often neglects to give it.or is unwillingr unable forecast,And then checked and adjusted for plausibili- to). Some long-range estimatesare conceived as ty and consistency. Most forecasters also report using optimal. targets for policymakers, othersas judgments leadingindicators,AnticipationssurveyS,' and of what is likely to be achieved. Are the formebettern econometric models. 13tit noneof the listed approaches. because they are more ambitious,or are 'the lat .enjoys a general and regular preference of the r survey "'better" because theyare more realistic? What abottt phrticipants, suggesting that none is expected toprove . theroleinthese. projections of "noneconomic". consistently superior tothe others.Rather, the developments such as Wars; whose occurrencemay be forecastert distinctly favor using the several techniques too frequent to be dismissed as "unforeseeable"?. in dvafying Combinations: g. Should predictions of the economy's trendsInclude Conceivably, the effectiveness of forecasts could be some systematiCallowances for such factors anti; ifso, such' as to setiously complicate their evaluation. how are'they to be made and evaluated? Forecasts may influence economic behaN;iot and Many o f those engaged in making such appraisals of thereby either validateor invalidate themselves. For example, if almost everyone predicted better economic long-run prospects avoid the very tern} "forecast:r They iaythat the main test of the goodness conditions in the period ahead, this very'consensus of of their optimistic* expectations could help stimulate "projections" (a widely faVoredterm) is ho2ywell these the assist in public and private decisionmaking.Ex p.m!, . economy. Or,,conversely, ifthe governments accepted the forecast thaj the economy is accuracy certainly, need not be a satisfactoryrndiAtd' threatened' by' of this ability of the projectiorls to helpusers5HoWwell , lecession, it would probably adopt policies-designed to, the trendsin. target variables for economic' and avert th4>t undeiirable outcome. However, it is easy to exaggerate or misjudge such feedback effects. in the business planners and policymakers are assessed-over UnitedStates,changesin periods lOng,etiough tobsorb the lags.with wrebithe GNP andother relevant actions are undertaken and` macrovariableslhat are predicted by differentsources put into affect for a given period tend to show sufficiently large may depend as much onthe performance, of those who decide and act as on the foresight-and influence dispersion tosuggest thatno single forecast is genergally of tilt:Ise Who project. But how 'accepted. Clitisistently superior forecasts evidentlyare are we. to evaluate the hard . tofind. Some predictionsare much more usefulness of the projections"on this basis? The task is '. presumably important, 6ut it also influential than others, and, the special significanceof seems difficult and, unfortunately, hardly tackled. -. those issued officially by the government is widely r . recognized. But the government forecasts, too, are at These reflections'indicate that -analy4es ofcom- times much disputed and.occasionally ,l'ound parative accuracy of fang-term piojections should satisfactory than many ,privateforecasts. prove instructive and are much needed7but alSo.that% Moreover, theeffectst.ontheeconomyof they are likely to be. nitre difficult to executeand macroeconomicmonetary and fiscalpolicies also interpret anti are less Conclusite than similartests for have been frequently overstated, An importantreason the shorter forecasts. Such appraisals, amongothers; for this is that these policies operate withsubstantial can tell ussomethins about what the-projections ought r hut complex and varying lags. Whentoo much is, to dim for and how. For example, 'Optimistic claimed for the policies, the .public,,,at large is ledto assumptioni:Of low-rates of inflationappear to be the expect standards of both prediction and performance main cause Oft Inderestimatic,1 insome ;.GNP.. an that economiststpresentlydo not know how to achieve. related projections;tthe ,correspond'in'g estimatesin constant dollars are not so.biased.)9 A review offive- , Sofarr asj.cdn tetl, very little is known about the year and ten-year projections of Constant-0par GNP accuracy and otheraneasurable Characteristics of long- accounts and rabor.input data fromlarge source of term forecasts. Ex post assessments are few and detailed estimates of this sortsuggests ttat.the9' are fragmentary heremuch more limited than for the. often much more accurate for the overallaggregates- short-term forecasts.°Indeed, the yerificalion of long than for the 'more volatile components. The Projec-, projections is particularly difficult,. and al only tions for total GNP, persopaIConsumption, total labor ' O' . 96 107 .c force,nd emplpymev are encouragingly close to the projections by noneconomists. The appear to revive actual er els (within t 6 percent)..., Those for residenfial a simple Malthusian model and overempharze the constru tioo, inventory change, unemployment, and danger of imbalances caused by growth by tin- armedrcesseries that vary a great deal in response deremphailzio theresponsestothem , through to cyi al factors' and changes in the international changes in cap-tal accumulation, technological im- situatio are generally Much poorer and in some provements, and demographic variables. M a result, cases g e tly (40-60 percent) off mark.2° . both the need for and the potential of economic growth In,.aAitiqntosuchprojections,whichare (which can avoid major excesses and tiistortions) tend numerou some Idng-range forecasts ha been to be, underestimated. In the last analysis; these errors produced with the aid of aggregate econometric derive from the widespread tendency to assume hat models aninput-output models of supply connec- the demand and supply' functions of allsor are tion§tion's amoi4g the Nation2; indumid. If the quat:Itity of inelastic, in particular with respect to changes in the .0°'. , / - - each input per unit -of output is treated as a.structural price`structure. . / ,. constant twhieh implies constant returns to scale and, a I shall not attempt to forecast the future of etonogic . particularly `drastio.assumption, absence of substitu- forecasting; but the preceding doess'ontain some hints tion among inputs when relative prices change), then a at what the 'prospects: at, least for macroeconomic 'system of linear equations can be set up deserdring the 'prediction, might,be. There are ,undoubtedly limits to interdependencebetv.een the outpuls of the diffe'rent what sbcial and economi .41 rogress will occur in; is own good time, but ft need not topic 5; .04 are very complexi-oblems that are..' b trong and steady, High promises and expectations likely to require intensive and sophisticated research _ shin' 'avoided heretecause they are not well stechniquess-theoretical ysis, SirobTaltris new , founded--a= risk-needless-disatipdintments. , data611eCtions, andinle 11 iiiiial bOrniiiiiion<1' o 7. Strengths and weaknesses in- forecasting different Stigdesticins Research economic variables and processes .(e.g.,pt,es, unemployment, and inventory change are important 'I have outlined a number of problems ountered. variables that' are 'predicted poorly compared With in the wide area of theoretical and empirical study GNP; should thty get a largor share of resources to practical activity that was surveyed in this paper. A 'be invested in forecasting -studies?.; how can their more detailed .*gx:position' it( beyond my -present.4.forecasts be improved?). . .- purpose. In Conclusion; however, itirray be useful to, 8. Systematic collection of'a represeigative sample of identify several broad topics for further research. At -,reputable ex ante predictions from the main least those concerning -,short-term macroprediction24 econothetric model builders, professional business have already received serious attention in past studies, forecasters, etc. This involves periodic, properly . but each of the items in the brief list that follows is designed and evaluAtedsurveys which would believed to -require a much more extosive.and prevent Ult gaps in the recorcl,that.are frequent in systematic effort: _ data for past fOreCast's and that irripetle research., 4\ = 9. Extension and improvement, of informatiOo iieedbd I. Criteria' and meilioas of forecasvevaluation (what . for more 'effective analysis and forecasting of° standards should lie applied to the dilfekeit types of . ,: ,! forecasts, why, and how?). economic conditions.Seystais inierrelaM,.data% "2. Strength's and weaknesses of different forecasting sygterns sholild,.beonsiatecf `here,in' ing :; '. techniques (their determination will require not only 'cyclical indicators, anticiittion4r4is-, n al cbinparisdns of forecasts from different sources but Ancomeaggregates,monetary,financia, price , statistics, etc. _ . Alio decoMposition of forgcastegori;study of how . . 10.International comparisonsilk; experiefliw,ith forecasts, which' tornbine,.. various approachescoin- pare' With rpur 7-Predictions from _well-defined different types .of economic fotecasting. This would benohniark inodets, etc.). Thecs.relation between extend substantially the range of the. available econometric ju'agmental foreeasting is a part or triaterials and evidence and: illould be partkCulaily aspect of this topic, which is of special interest to helpful in deafingwith some of the other problems, e. (e.g., items, 6:and. # / above).,, . many practitioners-andresearchers:-47;, - :' , . . 3. The accuracy and usefulness of fojeCasts as es ThO is clearly a,very ambitions, though by lib means /, - A functign of the,predictive span (Considerable work all-inclusive, agenda': It involves problems that lend Chas been 'none on this _problem fol short -term themselves to,, and warrant, comprehensive-research. . forecasts, ctrid further analysis is particularly needed The choiee4tween thetopics is'algt Ailedifficult by for longer "projectiOns part 'of item 4'below). theif icing interrelated (though, bf course, not 4.,A9sesiment-Oft ermediatelandlong-term inseparable). In past studies, topics1,3; And..8,,.:---: economic projeCtion comprehensive analysis of probably account for the largest share of the work '. ,,thei-.accuracy and othirproperties. done.arid topics 4, 6, and ,10for,the smallest.Peasible,' 5:The -fale of exogenolis and enclogenOus factors in teseardh strategy, may well require a morosolectivF1 conotnic forecasting (as reiated to the important approach. If pressed to f'dcitstiti matters of the greatest antrinuch debated question Of the role -of exo gpIloug" direct interest and probable return' toprodueerand , and 4endogenins factors in 'econOinio usefs of forecasts, I wolild opt fdritems 2, 4,7A ahtil: f luettiations).23 (nor riecessirily in this Order).1f freetO PiiiSuernaftefs; :' Interactibkot fofeostsi realizations, and policy of more theoretical interest and long-range reiurAs, I ehargefeedliailc 'effects (thig has litany links to would opt for,,1, 5; -6; and 10. '. tr.' t ..; if- FOOTNOTES There is no space here to provide a historical perspectiveon the 15 For refetences to literature and current work on the assessment evolution of econOmic forecasting, For this backgrounclwith' of predictions in economics, see the repbrts cited in footnotes 1 and 4. references to literature, see Victor Zarnowitz, 'Prediction aid.f_ above_apd alsaY-Zarnowitz "New.Plansa ndResultsof.Researchan Forecasting. Economic," International Encyclopedia of the Social Economic Forecasting," 51,st Annual Report, National Bureau of . Sciences. Vol. 12, (1968), pp. 425:39. Economic Research (Septeniber 1971), pp. 53-70. 2 In particular, there are % totally endogenous econometric !° The following is a brief suffimary of selected fiAdings, stated in inotlels some variables affecting economic activities are determined general,, largely qualitative terms, of reports published by the in large part by 'noneconomic or other factors, and-their values must National Bureau ofNEconomic Research since 1967. The,principal he estimated, or assumed outside the model. (These are the so-called authors are G. H. Wore, Jacob Minder, V. Zarnowitz, Rendigs exogenous variables: see the discussion of the eeono metric approach Fels, Rosanne Cole,-Michael K. Evans, Yoel'Haitovskyi and others. below.) , In Europe, Henri Theil and'his associates have produced, since 1958, i The ASA-NBER Quarterly Survey. of Economic Outlook a large.body of analysis directed to both business 'surveys and (conducted by the BUsiness and EconomioStatistic; Section of the' econometric model forecasts. American Statistical Association and/evaluated by the National " For example, one large collection. of annual GNP forecasts ' Buteau of Economic Research). See below. shows mean absolute errors of $7.5 billion in 1957-1963 and 59.4 -.4 For fuither discussion, see the reference in foot-note I and V. billion in 1964-1970, these represent 32.1 and 17,8 percent of the A . Zarmiwitz,"Forecasting Economic Conditions The Record and the mean absolute annual Changes in GNP during the twP respective Prospeet." in V. Zarnowitz (ed.); The Business Cycle Today (New seven-year periods. York- National Bureau. of Economic Research. New York, 1972), 15 Technically. these are modifications-of the constant terms of the 11p.183 -239: model equations. See M. K. Evans, Y. Hanovsky, and G. I. Treyz, --..---t/,' .T.role Of random impulses in ptopagVing business, cycles has assisted by V. Su, An Analysis of the Forecasting Properties of U.S. -keen ;given much attentionin, recentsimulation" studies of Econometric Models," in Ecopometric Models of Cyclical Behavior. aggregative econometric models. See Bert G. Hickman (ed.), op cit.. Vol. 2, pp. 949-1158. Ecosneetric Models of Cyclical Behavior (New York Natibnal 14. Gerhard. Colm and Peter Wagner, Federal Budge( Projec'noris Bureali of Economic Research, New York; 1972).' (-Washington, D.C.' The Brookings Ilntitution, 1966). The authors t, 0 E l' Box . and 0 ., M. Jenkins,lime Series Analysis, present annual estimates (as of FebruarY- 1965) of GNP in current Forecasting and Control. (San Francisco. Holden; Day, 1970). and in constant prices for4iscal 1965-1973 and related projections of ' As shown by the U S. Department of Commerce samPfe government rtvenues and expenditures for 1968 and 1973. Already . . - surveys...... 1967 there were indications that the .rises in 5.NP and Federal $ The main -examples are prices of common stocks', which spending were going k be strongly underestimated in these according to many recent studies are traded in efficient markets arDir projections; 'see the review of .the Colm-Wagner book by V. follow random walks FOf a summary of these studies, see James H. Zarnowitz in Journal of the American. Stausucal; Association, Lorie and Mary T Hamilton, The Stock Market. Theories and' , (December 1967), pp. 15001502. As then/noted',Ihesferrors were ', Evidence (Homewood, Ill.: R. D. Irwin, 1973). related -to the unanticipated scope of the yieram War, but this did The principal investigators'were Wesley C. Mitchell and Xiirui.not make them insignificant`or otherwise avoidable. ':For.it seems F Burns in:1938, Geoffrey H Moore in 1950,and 1960, and Moore that 'normal' conditions are never really assured ant unto and Julius Shiskinrin 1966 The revisions and extensions of the list of events seldom fail to occur. Conctwnbly, over a period 011.5- lb ye indicators have been prompted by the appettrance of new data and the net effect's-Of limited wars and other such exogenous events coul improvement of old data, the accumulation of knowledge about the -.1e-prove transitory and weak, but historical ,evidence provides no 4 series and the processes they represent,..and thelacreases in efficiency sound bask for predicting-this as the most probable outcome"(ibid. of data processing. The reviews resulted in many significant changes, p, 1502). . . S but the core of the list remained rather stable in terms of economic 2° Center for Econonfic Projections, National Planning Assotia- processes See'G H Moore and 1.Shiskitt, Indicators of Business tion, An Evaluation of prior'dtlfProjctions, National), Regionat Expansions' and Contractions (New Yorke National Bureau of "'"If ECOPOMiC erOjecticms Seriet_ ,Iteport, No. 67-,I-2by Morris Cobbrn. Economic Research, 1967). - (April 1967). 'As implied by the above resultsand 'liked in the NPA,)f *to Perhaps the most representative' exposition of this idea is report, "To some extent offsetting biases in the Components result in,1 Milton Friedman and Anna I. Schwartz; "Money and 'Business projediions for the aggregates being close to the actual." Cycles," Review of Econ0tliCS and Statistics, Suppleinent (February 21,Input-output analysis was developed by Wassily Leontie( and 1961), pp. 32-64. - first presentedin 1941. For an application to long-range forecastingi. It These developments are variously.attribuled to clzaiiges in (I) see ,Clopper Almon, Jr., _The American Economy to,1975:An r the stiwtate and institutions of the _economy, (2) ecOnomic Interindustry Forecast ()dew York: Harper & R'ow, )966), knowledge and its policy applications, and (3) public attitudes and 22 Simon Kuznets, Quantitative Economic Research: Trend and expectations. 'Some of these changes, however; seem to have at the Problems (New York: National Bureau, ofdEconomie Resealch, same time strengthened the forces of'inflation,,which makes therii 1972); see particularly, pp. 66-70..* partly destabilizing. " 23 Clearly this requires that forecasters develop, good record- ; 13 See Ilse Minth,:Dating Americatt% Growth Cycles,", in The keeping habits, so that tlity can accumulate knowledge of their own `'Busln'ess Cycle Today, as citec1,1)P- 75;82; past practices, successes, and failures. ti A closely related distinction is between alternative hypothetical 24 Myown work having dealt mainly with this subject, I am much 'forecasts (e.g , of GNP next year, uming6pr 10 Percent-increases better acquainted with it than *Mt the other subdivisions of in government expenditures) and single preferred forecast (that . economic forecasting. goveroment expenditures will b 4 percent andGNwillP be such . 25 A Closely associated set of questioha concerns the relations and such). :' , - , between forecasting in economics and in other _perbit?ent 14 In any particular period these tenths of coursc may differ (rim technology, sociology, psychology, and politics. zero, even though their expected Values are zeror,-"- `.' 19i 0 Cha tte 9 A Resotirce Allocation Tool .forecisionmaking ft. Marvin J. Cetroit and George Foster' Gra . , The Piciblem of Resourcerocation usually too big to keep in one man's head. Data inputs come froM areas completely outside of his Ontrol. The.. - The idea of apOing a precise rating system 'to .itipuis involved multiply rapidly to the ndreds or 4 research and development was, until fairly recently, thousands when an allocation, problemreally1, sub- highly saspect-tabmehow anti-intellectual: .The' old . jectedo careful analysii. . , stereotype of the independent researcher foli:Owing his It might be useful, at this point;, to back,offandjake private staidierhard.But.the hisfoty of the past 30 a look at hoW thete problems were usually handled in years has sounded the deathknellof thisromanti4 approach. Wirld WaiAI, Sputnik, and the Apollo the_ pait.. familiar approach was to take care of .the . 7 "squeaking Wheel. 7 Som4, requetted,resoltrces,were cut moOn programnoi to.mention tilenew worlds of electrons, - medicine,' and transportationhave all from all estimates. Then the 'manager could sit back made science and technology into a big business,. of fre\.mtst_auand see who complained the most.' On the basis of the ou d most insistent cries of- anguish, he would- meridOus :complexity. There must .be a logical, iltional . then restore some of the resources Fitlfheld. When he,..- way of seleCting the tasks, to be workedon and the re-, sources to be expended.on theeffort, 'leached his budget ceiling, heesimply.ohfuggifil. .Y3"P ..' , I.. N - , 3Mother cointrigIkapprO4,titoltreOlted.'X'' ' in-' fewer.' As the scope of the job of allocatidg..technical re- ,- sources becomes larger and the complexity increases, -"atihealcs'Iva6ballabairthkYeaftiitourcetiniiitt abet 'iiieijalinet;:444-ityegr'S.--elf the:leVelor more and more factor] must be considered to arrive at * an effective decision. The point is soon reachedlherif ttls.11110-4pfiroach is'oontm9ed V*7 tAipidlrbtknging teTchnology;lherorganya7.,. even- ontsmall decision may affeett. heoperAtion-of.alL in:spiQp,vtroppts1::, efforts-1ft least -to.some degreeWhertthat .bappens; = the human braidatone cannot,..datifej.ob as well as needed. easy,,approacift "014 oft* giftsear deY40131Pe4ifi*Pialikreif5011.0.4-"00.1:Ci-' The sltuittion especially difficult whentriany- iiiittedhy3heifottkpa4t,*kiicimtti, research: development projeCti,tinust, be the yeak,ornOt"pc'tta)3a;iOit'atle.aF.a.fgit'c!j3';t,kie ered government or Corporation %fir organization had ja:_vsty;sUccesit4.1sivitt; -resource 1.,"iiiIhties nut be set or decisions fkrep*hY,:noifundliie,-tiitfor4iCtaitArtif014# - made, concerning which projects to back and which to _projecitArlimcatal-*;itt7: tit Vtliftel drop brCtelay..Nattnetolts efforts-are iptc#ektel__witit 1tecd. foi.3441yttifilf:thOtro tegattdt5 ourcetienUir,d,,itepOse,andposii; '..-Viduktorlabaraioiy, ble ttchnicitttta -Choices therakit plibi be made a with regard tq eheto fect.741t#4,41_ buT#4": 4i1--..;riade4Afelia turer,service industry, kgo .,..techni university liboratory, every. organgationAlust seek 'ff4.-ftite ci:01:Aq the greatest payoff from-hi resource investment, ,...Z:``dashk tO3Ps .-: - -,-: IluindOut4411-eNrotitelii,wediiresiiiiiti What'alternate methods are available for helping to. fh?ptessediir Op.cw_qtogjOst*YielsterIc41,0 Make allocations? How do you evaluate thee The increased opyr4.5),,94:$1olktiem-soo0:04 basio;piint it that the resource-allocation problem is :Yi eMan to.brief theNstwontheAreatuie: -nt,--- .Finally, there was the committee approach, which once they real that whatay sewn like guesswork freed any individual manager from resource allocation can lead to objective an. ysis. Other criteria, such as decisions.- Thecommitteescalledtheshots 7-- the Utility the researcto the objectives of the or- toSICSire,d;pricirity systems- - were. Too often the cominitteedid not have enough can be r. ed in a like nner. , actual experience in the organization or sufficient 'The of subject' e probabilities nukes feasiblithe information upon which to base its recommendations. incororatiintoythe decisiOn process, in a fortnal Its members, especially if it was an ad hoc group or anvisibl ay,f both the onobjectiye and objective frdm outside the organization, could avoid responsi- creria an ables thatere previously taken into bility nicely since they did not have to implement their ccount bye deciiio ker when he applied his recommendations:-This is not to say that committees judgment to he data aRabic tdhim. are never useful. If seve1 experts a litld were asked-the:same ' Obviously, these allocation _mettiods are neither `question,their reo ses would- very likely differ ,4cientific nor objective. Anyone who has lived with some Eadh s different assum'ptions about the them knows that they,must be supplanted. An increa condions andwhich the research would be under- in the number of reports and recommendations t at take, who wod be performing the A:search ,and how can be demanded of every level in the research an de-. theesults ofe research would be used in the future. ,,..telopment, organization does not help the situ tion. wever, ifiseveral experts,werezonsulted on several Moridata without a systemfor using,thembncorn- cificcriteriaforevaluation,thoircollective pounds the manager's problem: ' . responses .would reflectthe best-informed opinions on the Tatter;regardless of variations Between individual st The Basics of Resource Allocation responses. Soineple ask how a collection of admittedly sub-. A more realistic alternativeisbeing builtb jective ideas can be turned intda reliable "objective" specialiststooperationsresearch.Informati n tool. They feel that people are fooled into thinking that,, assembled by, them can be used to assist manage they-have "data" when they .assign a number to an judgment siificantly. This is the point where qua tit- opinion or,guess. Perhatis the best first answer should , be that this approach is not really. newt but has been . atiste. eval .tion techniques enter the picture: oh major asct of airograrn can be exathined, first sep- used successfully in other fields. High school students arately ,and then as it becomes interrela ed to .are admitted to universities on the bidis of quantitative competing prOgrams.Atems such as timelins, cost judgments made by. teachers. These teachers grade ;.!1,01'4, or payoffconfidetice lerl, or ,risk, rsonnel, about five subjects a_yeai- for four years of high school. and facilities can be evaluated by specialisin each The different tracfiers, different subjects, different field and the total picture made available'asbasis for tests, 4ndilifferent subject matter taken in high schools ffareas can,he identified an problems throughOutthe nation are all expressed in numbers or hightighieo puts can be accurately recded, made letter grades. teacher opinions on how to grade, biases clearlY ,visible and analyzed to help m ke the final and prejudgements, 'oral recitations; and grides on -. nnnstandardized, unstructured subject matter and tests are all -injected into the conglonieration-to,fAmn OTAti*Itita4ve inethdds leathe deCision- ''" the individual teacher's final grade Ili one subject. as areseartch school grade for the 4-yelles are then averaged to pro: employs'iormal--an'alyti techniques. duce one number: the 3chocri average. .titijecliy.eassurnptions anti values of eciti,nrnakers . Miraculously, 'there is a goailios- Itive -eorrelation- aiialy,e45.Ain objet- ' '4±i6P1.* .4licilfeatincloatiyirieli between this magic average and success in college. It is 2,,2,;:;:;.,4,,,-iiiternariner.,-'F.Offrialization "or the, ,.'dt4isiiOnirtAlcifig recognized in most cases that this ."`quantitative torisideritiOns,414tottitilicatiOniof s mte" of Alny judgments is the best indicator df suc- 'ffl`Pi.:c4ie,ty00)".004eptified and , cess in college: fte,t4i0x,if:a:fieldiiasItedibititanagetient to esifiloate;thiiiSe, ota piojectof its pgobability of, - ince opinions and jtidgnients ate gathered and ck.,7_Contnlestionin.regard '0:Various, time and ,ay...tilhedby every decisionmaker in one way or wide,expetiencein 10,other, why not this process? Somptiethod ally, have rigitfircuity iising MiA`kia4 pf.prObitgrit ntust be devised for evaluating opinions and judgments . e so thatprioriti\e can os reasonably:establish'': ''' al.. The.resource-allocation model which FI develope Somehow compa sons t he drawn between pro- was designed to meet the above-mentioned criteria. jects which may di fer inost, focus of research, and The methodology -provides a means of ririating the &nation.. . cted _yalua_of; a- research projizt-*the--funds-L- ..,' *ad by the projEct. The rlodel rank. orders each x,-; project'according.to its, desirability index, the ratio of '1 A Resotircelocation Model , the expected value Of the research to the estimates' cost .. \ . . r.. of the-same research. The index is basicallyka figure of eirecasting international. (FIt developeda Model- merit., which measures the expected, efficiency, of ,.which .enables suclkomparisons to be. niade for the sourt,utilization: the higherthe numekical value of the, 'Procesiekand Effects Division of the Enihronmental index., *the 'greater the eXpecied let ift on resources Protection Agency. The Processes and Effetts usedInd, consequently, themore desirable the pioject. sion has a particuldflieed for systematic allocation 'proCedures becaii,se its situation is extremely complex! The triode is not used to compute Costr,t is assumed Tbe.scope of the work is very broad, involving several. thata budget will be developed during the planning - disciplines in the physical and biological sciences ancr- process. The' crux of die model is the estimation of frequently the social sciences as well. In addition, eifected value: the model is fundamentallyan algo- research is clone,in agency facilities and by outside din:: rithm or set of rule computing expected value. tractor, both grOups of perfoiiners being .widely In developing the model we first identified major. dispersed. Such organizational ancigeographicalsepa- categories of considerationskwhich are important for ritraris impose barriers to dOniiniiiiication which add all researchprojects: . to the difficulties of resource allocation.. Inaddition, mostseandiciate prOjects7,-'including ninny which,must 1. Value of the reiearch to the funding organization. be deferred, concern urgent needs.: 2. ProbabilitS,./of successfully accomplishing thesoab . 4..e, the research project. "Project management. , These factors serve to illustrate the need fop model, as- well;asto imply some of the properties the. model Thetexi step wa; the identification of subcategories must have.These properties are 4elineated below: in which to measure diitirict aspecti of a project's con- 1. As a minimum the model should yield a meaningful, tribution to the three major categories:Thesubcatego- and realistic ranking of cansidate research projects. ries were as foe: - _ It should also produce a figure of merit for.pr ts :,I. Research Value wiricivakes casts into account, since the Objective is A. Mission Contribution: a measure of.ihiextent. to allocate resources efficiently: '-,..toWhich a project'spotential technical 2. The model must be powerful enough to handle the accomplishments would contribute to thi ful- full angetlf the division's technical and aiganiza- fillment of the Processes and Effects Division's , tA.w tionai complexities. Projects 'dealing with, forex-. nission. The project's responsibilitiesare . atnple, polliition of estifries in one latRiratory must stated in its authorization and are subcatego-°. he compared with work at another.site on thermal ries of Mission tohtribution; .. pollution of the Great Laker!' 1. Standards----a quantitative measure of. the ,.,,, 3. The results of evaluaticins.and the rationale behind degree to which the project oritributes to ..r. iherri must be readily communicable ukard and - information, for establishing pollution staii- downward in the administrative chain. They slioOld dards. . , fit the frames of reference of people, having broad 2. Control Actiona ineaitire of the degreeto range responsibility as, well as those havitlg,Project which the research will cOntribute t(1 the . responsibility. :.._control orpolltition. . 7 ,. .. _ .. The- warkingi- of the .model should be visible and :Indentity and Source of Pollutants.a completiensible and should not.require a measure- of how much the research ciintrib- 2 .1.i. *izet1 ; staff for' operation.Managers tend to utes to nformationi about generation of i 7 . ,. . distrusfand rightfully so hidden. procedures in - . ... p011titinis. , stioh a critical area as resource allOcaticin, As .7 itoOr- 4. Path Persistence andyateif=a, measure- of , olla,ry inasmuch akthe model is supposed6tatd- how much the research cOntribineslab' ,,. management, it should take into account th facA . ,knowledge about how ifollutantsfare trans-_ ,, . -. i0111 IXe(110 control' the.pribgrams., ported to and*ithin the environment;,. . . le - 10213 h. 7 5. Human Effectsa measure of the research B. General Considerations: a measure of whether contributioNtb knowledge about howpol- the. project can, or Should be "delayed in whpie,,:/ lutants and their derivatives affect human . .` or in part., ' ;* t r s --health -and quality of life.t C., -Management -Efrifonment a measure Olij` T: 2 6. EcologicalEffectsa measurp'. of 'the whether the project is acceptable,to high* aui ;, research contribution to'knoWjedge flout . , 'thority in the Management structUret,;,i '' i 1°1 how pollutahts and their derivatives affect 1 1 ,,ok_,:t t ; theecology. ,rf Each of these categories could thavelbeen divided , . into subcategories in a fashion similar to the way nii4- 7. EconomicEffects-jemeasure-,of the. .research dilitribution to knowledge 'about sion contribution has been subdivides We judged 'the economic costs of pollutants and their fultherdivisions-lo be unnecessary f purpose df derivatives. this. mCael. Such divisions could be e and 4dd- A tion'ar: categories could be 'created if:iircunistances 8. Measurementa measure of the research , . chang-Cd. ) ',i - ... contribution to pollution meastiremeut. . B. Problem 'Significance: measure- of the . 'a Once the categories that are to4be measured hayc importance of the probtern,which the research been ideUtilied,, the criteria for assigning numerical tacks, as determined by the extent arid inten- values tor. tilt categories can be defined. We decided .sityf the environmental stress-. Th:reetlistinct that, with a. few exceptions, each of the categories ' subsets of criteria are Used-here depending on within the three major divisioi6 (value, su'ctess, and ' whethe,r the proposed re' earch relates to air, -%, management) could receive a ratingof A, B, C, or D for ; . Water, okradidtion pollution. a specific project. A was the highest rating which a pro- C. Titneligeis: a -measure of the availability of.. ject could receive in a category, and D was the loweits. -research results in relationto the need for the Each retter rating carriwan associated numetical . .. value: A =points:, B = 4 pointk; C = 2 points; and D =:I .! D. Field Utility:43 measure of the pradtical feasi.; , .7 point. , ,bilitrOf applying the, research results to en- . forcetent of environmental standards. -... The rationale Mr this scale is derived from dime:rya; E: Technological Tranifer!..a measure of the tion aboUt human thought processes. People think in 3 additional value, if any;resultiui from wily- terms of doubling Or halving:For example, if someone ing the research Jesuits in other than the pri- judges light A to be appreciably, brighter than light i; it i mary area for which the work is undertaken. is about twice as bright. This carries over to other areas ; where judgments are Used:. We .reemphasize that the: 'I," . _ Probability of Sticcess , : model. is'a device for quantifying and communicating -4'; subjective judgments. 'these values represent the judg- ' A. Technical-Risk: a measure of.. the likely successt" ments of Forecling International per-sonnet..,, .-.t. of the technicalobjective,theproject, usually ,1-, . 1 a function of prent "stag of development" of, 'The criteria for The letter ratings, ere then specified.. the task being evaluated. A program receives a letter rating in each evaluation B. Past Performance; a meastlre of the pet- , category. The evaluationcriteria are listed belo . fOrming organizationy. based on its prey' ious 11 ..,,, track record. 4 , , C. Technical Planning: a measure ofhow well the -1. ,Value Rlearch -''..', technical program has been thought out, espe- Al.Mission Cofitributiod. A program isiitefl on cially the. extent to:which alternative, routes itscontribution to each of the diVision's have been considered and evaluated. , r respo sibilities. . , D. Adequacy of Funding: a measure of -whether, I. A jiii.increase, (breakthrough) in usefu4 in the assessor's judgment, the objective Fay be - kn wledge of the causes, consequences,,, aehievict with the requested funds. :>' \ , easurement, or control Of pollition. et. f 2: An'importint extension.in knowledge.:. 111: Project Mum. gement ,I , ,to- 3. A contribution which, filli gaps iin, oxii; Ai Research Objective Achievement Plaif present -knowledge or...increases. Ole effi- '-'-(ROAP), Purity: airireastire% of the extent. to.. ciericy,;ofiineasurenlent or control; t which alhthe proposid.- project. tasks are vital. , 4' Analysis or evaluation- of 'available . foracdomplishing-the stated objectiVe. knowledge;, 103 r,. B.ProbleSignificance:Separate criteria were %liter supply relative to availablestream flow_in the develodfor water, airrand radiation pollu- particular waterway is highroughly theupper q4lar- Lion' prorams..Qnly the water pdllution crite- tile of such demands. . riaarg dOiled here'for illustrative purposes, A significance rating isderivcd simply by identifying 'The problemgnificance tating for a witei-related the water basins affected by the project, counting up project is.basical a measure of the number of water- ,the number.of B's, etc. and multiplying by 8 for A, ways to which t knoWledge will be applicable. The 4 for B, 2 for V, and I for D. For example, a need basis for judgmet is present in Table I, which shows'dealing with pollution from sewage plants in estuaries the strews whicwill be applied to 22 major water (related to city demand) will be of concern in New Eng- basins: los/as deloped from information concerning land (A), the Delaware and Hudson (A), the Chesa- the 1980. med*demands for water as estitnaledin . peake (C), the lower Mississippi (D),.the Western Gulf The Outlook Jo Wdter.1The letters indicate the (B), the South Pacific (A), the Central Pacific (D), and importance of deands which will be made on availa- the Pacific Northwest (D). The rating will 6e ble water supply, ad from them one may infertile kind of water pollutioproblem lijcely to be encountered. A:8 x 3 = 24 The letters A to,'D indicate the severity of dem4nd. A B, 4 tl = 4 under city, shows that the demand for a municipal C. 2 x 1 = 2 D.1 x 3=3 S . it ;Table 1. Water Demands e Agrigulture Mining Cooling . MaridTaCturing City Northeast i New England D D A A Delaware and Hudson ; C -C B B Chesapeake Bay D . D B Ohio ..tt D B O'istern GreetLakes' D B A Western Great Lakes C 41B A Upper Mississipp, C B C , Lower Mississippi 6 D Southeast . Southeast- C 'C D Cunberland 4 s D Tennesses D Lower,Missiuippi B D Lower Ar kansei4lhite-Red D MicKontinent, . * . Upper Missouri B C C Upper Arkansas-White-Red, B We ern Gulf B a So thwest O Upper Ric; Grande-Pecps A A C Colorado _ A B D Great Basin A- B C .South pacific . -A A A. North.Pacific -Central Pacific. Pacific Northwest : . .... These-kings are then suIried and transfq,rined 2. This project will provedg useful technology N into a.final significance ating according to the follow- transfer to another program area. Ing criteria: . 3. Thisproject, is_dimitedinscope; e A"-a-ar leastipi points technological, transfer very ,slight :or .the Et = 51-108 Points . 'technology is unique to this progra o C = 26-50.poinis technology -transfet foreseen, but .' D = 1-25 points ' . - possible. 4. This project depends very heavily on,cross- Some problems-cannot be simply related to single _ supportfrom other-areas. In other words, it environmental. stresses. An example- is the cleilel- is really "parasitic" in, nature. opment of techriiques for measuring and,describinithe condition of 'ecological..balance.This is likely to be of .significance'. in all waterways and for all envirbn- It Success Factors. .A': Technical Risk: . mental stresses. It is given an arbitrary significance rat- Essential scientific methods or comPonent ing of A.. , - technology in hand, primarily assemblage; a application, or developrrient. . C. Timeliness: *-2. Capdbility could be obtained at the level of 1. A tight but realistic schedule Which is funding with a confidence level of at least40 consistent with the urgency of the problem, percent", (The confidence level -.asked for and othework, if any, upon which a solu- from researchers by managenient);- tion to the total problem depends. - I Fundamental scientific JcnowlOdge is well in 2. Thescheduledcompletionof effort, hand but has not . yet been' appliedi although not optimum, is probably the hest . practice. *, that can be achievedor timeliness cannot 4. Forecasts show one could not have theeap- , -be assessed. _ ,ability in the time required .,with- level of, ' 3. The objective will achievei:Tar ahead of ftinding with a,confidence level of about 20 -411,' other work essential to solving the problem ' . VP as envisioned by the appraiser, and a B. Past;Perfokinance: 1. stretch-out would occasion no significant -1. Pastperformahceof theperfOrmihg harAship. .. . . departmentis -excellent (The previous 4-r, The work isdirected loward the solutiqn of Work -has been completed entirely without' e an existinglnoblefit- which is reasonably funds.) expected to disappear before exploratory . 2. 4-peiformanceoftheperforming,. development carrbe convicted.,' , dertmerit, gOod., (The previous Work D. Field Utility: has been 'completed' withdittle add ititinal . 1. The exploitation of,acebmplishment fulids) clearly be operatiOkilly feasible and is 3. Past. performance ofperforming depart-, . expected to result in a. major improvement.- '--Tent is -fair. (The preVious work has been in the EPA's capacity tg.enforce environ- completed with additional funds; but. , late.) : --mental standards. -1 ; j 2:4The exploitation of accomplishnieht Wine - Past ifetfonnance, of Orfamlug 493Ft- meritis poi: K (Previous work hai.tieeri t operationally feasible and will,contributei.. materially to the EPA's capacity to enforce late and with subsfantial4dditional; environmental standards. funkli) ' 3. Uncertainty.existi.whether the expected ae, C. Technical ,1"1aiinini:., complishm-Frit will be operationally feasible Logicitapproachtqlhistechnical0qhlem;. 47, when redueedtto practice. ,alternative aPproacheertqthipiqblein 4.. Exploitation of the expected accomplish- whined: ,- . mot will not be operationally feasible. 2: Logical apiiroaeht0 the technical Prqblem, . Technologtcal Transfer: one alternatixe:.aptiMachto the prObleiti 1."j110'projectWillpiovidesignificant: technology transfer to another4rogram Logicalapptoach to the p -blette area, but no evidence that alternative app c . '105 P. Na. 1., . .- to the prOblein have been exawined. b: Project was preyiousfy 4. Illogical approachto the tecgitical- stiblnitted and 44, A, -.problem. rejected by:bigher headquarters4Nosig-. niticanknew information Adequacy.pffundingEsamates:'----,-;. was attached to.yvarrint, flirt herconsideration. Isl. Estimates in the funding profileare not . t . onlyf sonahlebut are clearly A' project's expecteil Value, he result of which is divieed by the.. . - considerablega:t realistic planning. ,.project's estimated cost tO.Yietd'a desirability index, is 2. Estimates in the Optilnum ... funding profile thPn simply5' theproduct rodud ofof its ratings,,,,Ilsinmall categories. , .; appear reasonable -for the,seppe..Of work 'The- higher the ratings4e.hrghert.theexpecred 7 :"-- , value. . envisioned-. 4--- . . . :,. -*, 1 ' :-.0i Some cif tile -3. Estimates in the optimum possible 4Pitional compleidtieswhich funding profilek canr'be inthporqed i to'a are clearly excessive fOr the seope a decisiohmaking modelare . ; work .71,11us tra t ed by the way hat the vale of the envisioned:- '" mission con- ', , -1. \ ' . mibution-category is.et Wed.' This category con . A. Estimates -projectedappear ,so inadeqtiate Gins- i 'seine eideptiOns to the Ato D rating method dot . . that serious consideration shbuldbe given . to cancellation . scribed above. There are several steps in thecalculation .., 11:;'*0.-the:_numerical value assignidto a prOject's mission III. Management Factors . .-' --- Ye-Ontifbittion rating. Thefirst step is perfonneclonce,-* , R A. ROAF Purity: ."` , in1/48 its results are applied to all projects...This stepthe '. I. All ;he approachesare reasonablei aild at rmination of the relative: weight,or importance, leait 90 percent of 'ass elatedwith each of th6division's she approaches are 1 , stated responii- gerniane. ._ , bilities. TIF relative weightitobe assign' of 2,--Alt, the apprpaches the mission cotnponents are reasonable,, and * are ettimated by hehe use ofa between. 75- percent and 90 cross - support matrix which relateS each percent of the 1" component to* approaches-are *germane. alothers. Theinatrix is shoWnin Table 1.. Less than 75-percenebut ,,-, more than 25 per- The rows and all but the. cent o theapprofiches Iasi two columns Of the: are reasonable and -matrix' l'st the mission germane. elements. The cells are filled 't across 4. Less than-/ ,rows by lettei-s designating theeZtent'to percent of the apprOaches are which the element reokoble and germane. in the row,contri butes to the element in the column.' Consider the 4. UeneralonsiderOtions: first row; One'fills it inby asking, "If I know What the A (1 point ),or D (0 points). standards are, how much do I know about appit'priate_control actions; about AAt Organiiation (is the -proposing organiza= the identity alndsource of pollutants, about the path ,tion the right organization` todo job?), spersiStence; about fhe fate ofpollutants, etc." A lettqrlis. Mdst the'program be started thisyear? entered, into each. cell indicating.ihe analyst's judg -' Are there efforts which tray bedropped by of the .extent . supporyi for high, M:for mod; a specific laboratory to accommodateman-. erate, L for lowrann? for _negligible. Nambetiare power-requirements of this program? then assigned to theletter,k(H R,81111C=4,L =2, and Z= I ) --Can this proposesprogram. -be logically, summed across therows. RaW sums are in. the first a included in ari existing*ROAPor combined numbel colurin andnormalized t &a sum of 100 in the_ -with other ROAP?,Identify. second. '' - Should tbis propoSed 'progran(be . contin-- ued nexcfear? (Fafetatingprograms.) The analyst then ratesa program on its Contribution,' to each of the diVisiOnViesprinsibilities., t.e Again', the C Environment: 14,4,--1-01.11r project is givena iatingfroni A to D. The criteria -?; On =going prom judgment are ss follows: . a. Pr ject. is/requiridby. legislative is seen as desirable by higher A, A major lncrease- -(breakthrough) '.hea quarters. useful" knowledge of the-causes; consequendes, measure- b: Pro eet is regardedas unfavorable by hig er -headquarters. ments or-control-of oollUtiOn (8 paitits).I; ,.;- Atiimportint extension in 2. ProPO dproornm. knOwledge,(4`points)., 9; A contribution which fills'gaps our pilesem afject, has bee)Vreqpested by,higher' knowledge-or, increases,the efficiencyOf. measure.: J, - headquarters. '' . 2. . ment pr control (2 points). . . A A A . AA . : - AY. - o P:- , D. Analysis or evaluation. Of available knowledge (1. vision iespoiiibility. The ,firit number in the row. point).; , , shows the weight Of the diviSion responsibility relative .. . , . pes extent of contribution ratingis:mithiplied by to its other responsibilitid, as calculated from the th* weighi previously calculated fbr the cateray. The --trossvupporrmatiitlecablc-2;TheatialyirchFeks totatinission contribution ratiis the sum Of the. mis: the ;appropriate A, B, °C, or D coluninatici multiplies sion ccrntribuiions -calculated 'for- 411 Mission the numerical value associated With the later (8,4,2, or categories.. -4 1') by the responsibility's relative weight/.. Thus;'if the analyst checks ColumnBfor a project s contribution Although he must rate a project inleveral categories to standards;thetontri*ition Would be 2 polpts (8 for ,and in accardanclwith several criteria ineach date- relativg weight of standard% times 4 poitfts for B gory, the analyst can uke a fairly simple fortri.io rating), The contrilvtionis ate summed for iota), -tate the evaluation. The rating form contains fOur sion contribution. charts which correspond to the steps in computation: / - "Mission Contribution Rating," "Expected Value Esti- Figure I MSc; shows expected -Oalte estimation. Here mition,' "Funding Schedule," and"Desirability the analyst checks A,B,C4 or D for each rating cate- index." Antxample of the charts is presented in Figure gory.ecattsflotal m slot; contribution is calculated in the hrevas step, t e numerical value for that step is 1. ` )7/./ merely entered at theRttonf orkthe mission contribu- Each row on the mission contribundit, rating chart tion column. The numerical value associated with the `vitiltcontains information abouta project;s4iition to a di; letter checked in each column is enured at the bottom I ° Table 2. Mission.Cross-Support Matrix f. - . \ ' 'r's.' MISSUAIELEMEWS,. '--,.. , 1' . . .) . .r.: . ca.u, u, , ' I, t. , . Z' (..),10 c.) .1 i, , ,--2cc <1- tii... . . 1..: . u. C..) n u.Z .., Ca c-) 9.vi e, -....! ..,u, - ,. . ..- . 0a.-:lc.u- 4 . - - . . . . I.-z1ic ,z .. 0 z I , % , ' -- etZwl'"-590S0 14i.8 c.) _cc . !16f '.7SUMTOtal :::. OTANDARoS MM ZZ,? M H 24 8 . CONTROL ACTIONS 1 LAikZ Z a,Z.-..Z- ':10, 4 1/ . .IDENTITY/SOURCE . i M,H - .111 MMft, H 44 16 4 .. . PATH/PERSISTENCE FATE .. ,H FUM .H 4.(11 M 60 2t 40 711. ,,HUMAN EFFECTS. H-L M L L L Z. H 29 10 I 2 *% ke o, gC01,0GICAL EeFE . H'L. MM,M MM H 38 13 ,,,'.--, - . 5,':ECON.Avt10 EF F£C ! ,L. L L L: L'''.M 207 ; ' ,',MEASUREMENT /''' H H H 1V1,-.N1,., it6i18 , pitodRAm, - tz 2z2 . , z.A z ,-.. 0-- 3 A. ', A . . 285100 1./.. 0 _ 1./0.1. 0...... 1 A I ..:0----t-1- J Moderate Support Z.=1 - NegligibleSupporV 107 I A 118 -- A , . , , - Doairably Wax . . FROS/ROAP Rawl Fos Ratio, EROS/ROAP . _ 44sa.4,446,r;$-14i4/44404..4041.,...4-4P.4arfc--#(.06--. --FY X QV EROS/ROAP Tido A . . Amos 122" .5 U . Ns. .fro.bas. Pip.Ana MTide . .'' . Total to 2/ AltS ,444(. of! 179.K4oftrieter444mv 1 . Na. Yaws i .. - . . . ' . .. 2 Minim Cantriadon Rating 4 o.. Boom VI A . C D Cot , r. . . Staderrt 1 . . 54- . , imitrel,1 . . 4. - -,- lioatity/Sowes 11 - \ Padt/Portiotsacs/Fate , 21 V II . . Rums Effects _ 11 , Ecological Moots 13 , . N.- . . Econosie Effsc,L...,, -.- 7 72 ' 1 o . . II V 12 3 \ III < I Total MAW= Contribadoo 1 ' . . . . Expect*, Volta Wanda 1 . . . Swam, ' . Yates F1 WAWA ` Factors Factsi , ,,... . 4 .., . . .. . 7 . c , t . .. w \1 . l; . . . . 3iI ...... c . , . 1...... v "t.. 1 R\p, IN IV44 4 t , Wetted Vasa Product ' 171721111 A Hooka . _ Ft 24 Fr* Ft 71 111077 '''' FY 71 Ft 71 Ts* 4 1 1 IN 2 1 1 21 1 1 , M Figorl..1.;;Sample ralmetion * toe . .11 1.1,Q ' ft. a of the column. The values in the bottomrow of the the factors involved in resource allocation. In other, chart_ are then multiplied to produce tfie expected words, data plus analysis yield information;.inforMt- value. tion plus judgment yield decisions; ft Two additional exceptions to the general Ato D rat- Those of us, who are working to build these ing scale are shown on`the expected value chart. Under allocation systems are firmly convinced that ifwe had ntanagement.factors, the columns for'general consid- io choose any system wj h miics of computer erations and management environment do not provide printbut and the human brairi,we would select the for B or C ratings. These two categories cdntain 0/ no brain. The brain has a marvelousway of learning from go criteria: A has a value of I point. and D has a value experience an8 an uncanny way of pulling out salient 4of 0 pointA.The criteria that must be met for an A r§ii; factors and rejecting useless information. It iswrong to tng can be yiewed as being absolutely necessary say, hOweVer, thatoiie must selectIntuitive experience order for the project to be considered at all for funding, over analysis-or minds over machines. They are, not al- but an A rating has no effect on expected value. Sincea ternatives but should complement each other. Used D rating has a value of 0, such a rating inane of these together properly they can be countedon to reduce the /II two categories automatically reduces the expected mast complex problemto an answerable question. value of the pzoject,tO 0. The,fact that a computer or an adding machine'may . The filial computation is the calculation of the pro- be used to facilitate data-handling should inno way ect's desirability index, the .ratio of the project's detract from the basic fact that hutnr subjective- expected value to its estimated funding.:A project's inputs are theandation of these systems. Accurate funding schedule is taken from the projectstatement. human calculation, as opposed to use ofa computer, After desirability indeis haye been derived for all for the- calctilations of all the interrelationships con: projects, the projects-can be ranked in order of their sidered, would not alter the basic principles of these indexes. If the results are'surplising to the analyst, he management toolsany respect. . can examine eachttep of the process and determine -These approaches represent the latest thinkingon. exactly why the results vccurred. Unexpected result how to the collective judgments oftechnical staffs may be attributable to a combination of.factors, none L--) and decisionmakers in suck a manner that themost of which alonecan account for the results. The model is logitaloan sound. decisions, evolve. Thegoal is the flexible enough so that different weightsor scales can greatest' payoff achieved fortheresources be easily tested,,particularly when the model ispro- coRnittedwhethei: in men, money, or facilities. To gramed on a comp ter-Seyeral analystscan evaluate maker;; an incorrect decisign.is.understandable, but to the same projects nd the model can compare the make a decision without really trying to get,as much results.Eadh step of the evaluationcan be examined , usable information as possible is unforgivable. The."' separately. More d sanctions within categoriescan be managers who design and work with information syt introduced. Variables can be omitted. In short, the tems, however, must realize thatjhe technolOgical- inodercan and shOuld be tested and %fined withuse. forecasts, 'quantitative estimates of project value;and Refinement doe's not equal more complexity. The other aids to resource allocation -are' simply planning more coliti3lex the ratingscale's and criteria; the more tools. difficult to use the model: Al somepoint'of complexity and sophistication a model ceases_to be appreciably Even this caveatihowever, does not defuse critics of simpler to a decisionmaker than the reality itrepre- the whole ide ad thereare some very vocal ones sents, and it becontei no longer useful or usable. both in government and business. Some of the criti- cism is.a reaction to the fear of "mecbanization" ofa. Conclusion task felt to be rightfully ihthe province of human eval- uation. Other critics claim that building np.a.logical . . N We are well aware of many of theomissions and system, computerizing the' Ontput and quantifying , , weaknesses of q titativeselection or "reiotirck44.what` are essentially Intuitive and judgment decisions allocatiop.teehnique based op the type of analysis may insulate some managers with a false sense of secur- illuttrated bete. It sh uld be stresstd,again that the ity. In some way they fear management Fpopsibility will be hard to pin down. parameters generated do not yield decisions but rather. ..,informationthat can .facilitate decisionmakint. Systematicanalysis,however,tendsto...force , Indeed; these tethnisilues are merely thinkingstructures Managers to consider their resource-atlocationaasks to force methodical, meticulousvonsideration of allof .. more ,comprehensively an,highlights problem areas ..- "kig . 109 120' 4 0 U. I -s.1 ° . . t that might easily be overlooked by more .traditional of these planning devices improves, howevtr, manag- approach-es. At the same:time, quantitative methods -ers will bl won over, especially when thsy will be able are considered threatening by some managers because to spend, more,, not less, time .doing real decision: they may tend to qxpose their value judgments to criti- t making. .. cal analysis by others. As the degree of sophistiCation , FOOTNOTES o01 . NOTE This articleis, for the most part, a combination of two pre- report "Development of Resouice Allocation Tool fl:q Research" by viously published, reports. The theoretical discussion of resource Forecistidg International; Ltd. (Apri' 1973). allocaton draws extensively from Chapter I, "Technical Resdurce Allocation: An Overview" in Technical Resource Management ; Quantitative Methods by Marvin J. Cetron, et al. (Cambridgk, --Miss. The MIT Press, 1969). The application of the methodology, N. W. Wolman and G. W. Boman, The °wink for 1Pdier(Bal-. for EPA's ProcessesandEffects Division is derived from the final \ timore: Johns Hopkins Piss, 1971), 11, 21,'59. I , F '. o. 4 '- 0)40...av dir 110*. N t . Chapter 10 '1 Forecasting-And Its Impact-Oft- Policymaking -n Josegh P., Martino ' . ._ introductio . A discussiolOf the impact of forecasting ort policy - analysis. That is, we are coneerned with.forecasts made 1 making might usefully begin with definitions of the too deliberately, with the best methods av'ailabie, and terms.Webster's.dictionarygives, thefollowing intended to have an impact on policytnaking, definitions: t However, there. is one caVe'at so this intisteacelon forecast; to calculate-Nor 'predictl(some future Lational. study and analysis'-as underpinning _the event or condition) usually as a resultiofIationil forecots behind a policy:*This4rises from the concept study and analysis of available pertinent of "the image of the future" discussed by.Fredfolak policy: a 'definite. conise or.methOcN action The essence of Polak'sideas, as pet forthinnisbo gelgeted. fromamong alternatives and in- light of summed up: in two,. sentences from the foreword by giVen conditions to guide and deterfnine Present Kenneth-Botiltting:, "The image of the ;future... is the and future decisions. key, toall 'choice-oriented ,behavior. The genecal character and quality biethe Images of th'efutUre Which These definitions haveVnte implationsielevant to "---prOail in a 'soclieti isiperef ore the mostimportant clue our discussion. The term "policy" implies .not just a its overall dypatiiicrPOlak statet thatIte history of but'along-te'im framework which will Westein culturican toerdescribed in rernisTf thelfnages guide a series of Moreover, the canOt- of the future held at yat*us times by Western peoples. prescribe in detail, in the present, the decisions to 'be.:.,He then proceeds:Wpatnine these images, including made in the future, because it serves onlx as a guide tb _those of the .ciassiiCal ,bresfcs; t'erSians, the these decisions. Thus the policy is concerned more with Israelites, and the' early Chri5tians and then ifiose of, the final outcome or. condition than it is with the theMiddle.Ages,theRenaissance andthe .precise course by which that-phal condition is to be Enlightenment-4, to', ypodern time& wig!, various achieved, As the futurenfolds and more infornation, Utopians ankultAma4ely the Mar& . beComes available, decisions,, sill be madein the light v.' The essential Cnnstileration; from out standkint,ik_ O of what appears to be the best way to achieve the final , outcome. hata noneof theseh images,influentialas t ey on ee we're, - (and to soine:estent still are), could h?ve beenderived. Implicit in theldea of a policy, then, is a forecast of from'iational- study and. Analysis" of Claliabout.th0 the final Condition. or situation which the policy is pest. These images were, alL deplyeoil.;by oonrational intended ,to bring about.;,iir of least to be consistent means and were images of a society (et.tbe r in 'Ws world. with. Thisforecast,however, need 'or in some other) which wa's_differentIfosynd better "rational study or analysis." It may indeed ere than:'anything that ,had Ever existe4efofe::Indeed, intuitive and maybe completely implicit. A!) a'sgunip- Polak's main concern is that nenic of 'these images of tion hidden in the topic of this chapter, however, is that the future which once determined choicez..orienfea we are concerned not simply with intuitive and implicit behoini- Western civilizationsetains anyjpoWer to forecasts, but instead with those whieltAre siatedt-motivate, large nuiabers of people, and no.neiv images eZpli..4,itly and are obtained by rational study and arisen tot eplace them. His hopeto spark the. 4 2 creation of new images of the future which can provide with and managing these- conflicts, whether they Western' civilization with the guidance these other concern the 'degree to which contradictory, values will images once provided. There is not the faintest trace of be achieved or the allocation of finite resources among a' suggestion in his writing, however, that suitable complementary or. unrelated values. Nor can this images can be derived by rational means from data conflictbe reduced by increasing the Jesources about the past. Indeed.; an image whiCh is capable of available. Increased resources simply add new option .capturing emotions and firing iniaginations must have by allowing the consideration of values which could be something of the nonrational about it.' ignored when resources:Werepuch scarcer. (That is, a man who has only enough resources to hold body and- Another view of this same concept is expressed by soul together must allocate among food, clothing, and 'Gray L. Dorsey:c"Looi6ng to social facts and Choosing shelter. If his resources ace increasedhe not only must action, on the basis oflocial results desired is not an continue to consider these items, but also must effective'wayto_ guidesocial and governmental considerallocationsfor organization and action in the absence of .a set of "health; education, and welfare.") generally accepted values based on commitment to """ implications'of a view of the nature of man."2 That is, 3. Value adjustments In view of the two preceding it without an image of the future a future condition or considerations, it can be seen that policy problems are situation which is seen as appropriate for humanity solved by, setting thresholds or minimum levels which. and which is shared by both thoSe who set policy and are considered acceptable for each value. Policymak- those who make decision's in furtheranece of that ing is therefore an exercise in value adjustment, and it policymere rationality is insufficient:A,set of actiotiS also plays an important part in value creation., drdsesti on .an instrumentalhasis that- is, such thatit everyone carries them ontfaithfullyitcan be_ 4. Modeling historical process. The'policymaker is demonstrated rationally that everyone will benefit, will attempting to regulate a historical process which, is not in fact inspire ,the support needed to achieve the irreversible dnd nonrepetitive. Each event is unique in goals Of the policymakers. Both those who make policy . at least one of the elements of actors, location, or time. and\those whojlater execute itmust share a vision In order to determine the probable outcome resulting which is accepted not simply because mutual acceP- from certain'events, particularly from interventions on---; . Lance leads t'co_a 'clOable result, but be:Cause it is seen his sart, the policymaker must., model thii process, by all involved to be desirable and worthwhile in itself. usually by waive form of historical analogy. However, In addition to these caveats regarding forecasting, such a model can never be validated in the same way some additional comments on policies themselves'are that scientific models of nonhistorical (i.e., phySical or in'order. Vickers; lists five elements of policy-making chemical) processes can. Moreover, even though' the which, ht asserts, are commonly ignored in discussions policyinaker has no choice but to use such a rpodelfor of the subject, largely because they are not amenable to forecasting an Outcome, strictly speaking such a model "scientific" analysis. These elements are the following_ cannot be used for rigorous prediction in the same Way a scientific law Can beusedig- . ,. 1. Enduranbe, through time.Policies are not concerned with the achievement of goals on a "once S :_Modeling the "artificial."' Modeling historical and for all" oasis: Instead; they are concerned with processes is difficult enough when they contain'only conditions or relationships Which must be maintained those factors "which would be,as they are even if trien derOtigh time. For instance,a policy regarding the were not herelto observe them." However; the appropriate degree of education for children cannot be historical processes men are Confrontidwith contain a significant element of the "artificial' arising from . achieved and thereafter disregarded. It must continue though time as new cohorts of children reach school 'earlier policy interventions: The probleti iscorn- age. pounded when the resulti'of thoseearlier interventions 7 contain outcomes whiclibceurred either in place of, or 2. Management of conflict. Theltrictures of "the in addition to, thoSe which were intended. These dismal science" extend_ beyond the conrines of the ,artificial elements are ,"stibject 't-o their own laws,- 'money economy. All values are in competition for differing from the laws which appear to goveril purely :finite budget of resources Which can be expended in natural processes (i.e., even if a historical p rocess could achieving them. Some yalues are in direct conflict, be repeated exdctly up to the diciiion point, the Moreover, because they are contradictory, Hence an outcome Might be different.because,, of peoples-1 essential characteristic of Policy-making. IS dealing awareness of the outcome "the last time"). 112 123 . Having exardirred to some extent the nature of both the new system. Forecasts supporting this type of policymaking and forecasting,4ve can now begin an policy must seem crediblein terms, of thesconsequen- "examination of the, relatiolishIpibetween the two. We tial linking of the intermediate steps with the final will examine several models of the policy-making goaland the intermediate steps must seem desirable process, which more or less explicitly discuss the role-of in terms of the same set of values in which the final state forecasting. These models are selected primarily is seen as desirable. A because they 'do examine the role of forecasting. In' addition, they represent a fairly wide range of views of 3. Administrative effectiveness. ThiStypebf polic4is the nature of,policyrnaking and thus should provide a intended to maximize the efficiency of some agency in wide perspective on possible interactions between meeting future conditions. A forecast supporting such forecasting and policy-Making. The models will be a poficyis intended to allow the optimization of identified by the name of the author who proposed currentresourceallocationsinterms of future r them, although it is not intended to imply either that conditions. Bobrow states that this is the only one of the models are unique to the named authOrSqr that the his possible purposes in which accuracy of the forecast authors themselves would defend these to thetexclu- isimportant. This pointisdiscussed below. In sion of other models. additionoft, the forecast. !Mist have the appearance of . certainty- so that it inspires confidence rather than Specific Models increasing anxiety, and to be useful it must be linked to the use of policy io.,:ruments within the,control,of the.."- e' i o ' agency for which the forecast is intended. Davis i3obroV ;;;,-: :4- 4. -Group perquisites. This type or-policy seeks to. BobrovVi. Ifii O , roposeda s rips-son fof which increase the resources and status of some specified forecasts °A rp,;t1il i zed antfts identified criteria ky grbup. The forecast must make the. group appear which' the akilluacy of forecasts intended for each critical forachieving a desired goal or forestallingan purpose can"he judged. Each of his purposes can' be undesirable situation. A forecast supporting such a viewed as a majortype,or class of policy-making policy Must- credibly portray a state of affairt which objective. These, purposes, and tlielassociated 'criteria can be coped with only by-a subset of specialists, and for forecasts are a follows: one with which they can cope effectively. I.Socialmobilisation.This refers to a policy 5. :Participatory planning. This refers to a policy intended to mobiliie support for quickly altering, or under which public groups and individuals are given else for retaining, the current Itate, of affairs. The Opportunities to evaluate various futures far enough in forecast mustbeof dire consequences which will befall , advance, that choices between: Jistinctly different societyifthe proposed change isnot adopted "alternatives can still be made. Forecasts supplOrting, immediatelyorthethreatening changeis ,,not_ such'policy must ,portray', range of alternative forestalled. :The 'forecast must becredible, -the futures;, eac,of which-lsesseen as feasible in teen s Consequences significant; in teryns of .deeply held resources available and decisions to be mude:,These values, and the results orthe change imminent. -The, futures should-have reations for large segments,of conditiondesbribed inthe forecast thustnt,See thepdfulation, riot, simply .for,elites. The forecasts irreversible once the immediate action is past. f, . -portray the possible- futures with sufficient cl;rity likr7.;: . , . 2. '.'System, replacement. This refers to yoliey ,]that laymen have a bails for clibo,..sing among :- intended 'to achieve 'kipecific social ,system __at some Finally,the forecasts Must be Made,sufficiently far in-, time in tfiefuture---a system which is radically different iidyance- that the participatory prOcesk'Can:ftnictiOA. from thatcurrentlystisting, The proposed `system,; *before it is rendered, irrelevantby the patiagq:Ofeyenti.:: must bediScriniiciated from uses the 6.. CO4ctive learning ;arid ltdfifit4tion. This typ,ecof... "classless society" as an exaniple of suck a ,*ystF4, puli6 can be.applied,'?tO a largeiroup or-a- small One. 'fund amenti4 different from that of todayandidistineV,The,, objective' is. to,permkike feleyaut. grOtipto , from allother possible replacements for _today's retpOtit1W'eXternaceverits,which alter the likelihood of society), Forecasts ,intended to supporta ,policy of yariouLpOssible talcing thete,events into, sYsteM replacement must Show that the end ifites''ac46inAin'steadid,purauhia predetertninedprogram distant in time bu't'ts an XvitablecOnsequence,of a , from some starting point. Forecasts in.support of suer chain of consistent events; The-for4ast mustinclUde' a 004: Contingencies,-. `short -term ,and Midterm stepg which inevit4bly'lead to betSsieen the starting point and 111e.desicd end pOint: - -. . =1, 7: - 1.1,k _`. ? .r Moreover, the forecasts m be structured so the In addition to the cas-e' of administrative' efficiency, corrective implications of new information are clear. the concept of tailoring the fhture, or selecting n g- That is, the grotto, involved must be able to determine a 1 te in at i ve rutures, is important for the other policy from the forecast \whit types of intermediate events purposes_as well. Bobrow mentions it specifically'!in '_ must be monitored and the.consequences of various certain cases but leaves it only implicit in others, a's for interventions following specific possible events. , instance thetase of collective learning. Hence foj all policy eurposes, forecasts should include alternatives, 7.Theory dei,elopment.Thisisnot,strictly speaking, .a policy objective in the,same sense as the which should--be linked to intermediate events and others. The objective here is improvement of theories. °decisions as Well as to instruments of policyt ' describing the flow o'feVents and the conseqbences of Lead time is ipentioned in some Oases; but again it is actions. A 'forecast in support of such a purpose is an important criterion for all policy- fhaking purposes. _simply a derivation from the candidate fheory;and,it FOrecasts should be made sufficiently far in advance 'must be optimized to subject the theory to an einpirical that there is time for the polidymakers to have some test. The forecast must be stiffic,ntly specific that the influence over evetits, Hence the:specific policy under occurrence of the forecast outcome can be. readily considerationcimilthe time required to implement it; confirmed or disconfirmed: That-is, Popper's concept will lead'to specific Criteria regarding-lead time needed of "falsification" is relevant.,If a forecast cannot be':in forecasts supporting the policy. shown to be false,/fter the fact, then it provides no test ;. " : of a' theoryAand is useless for this purpose. Bobrow Intermediatefeedback,fromeventsoccurring 5" points out that forecast's useful fordeveloping theories between the starting point and the time the results are are likely to hive little value for other purposes and to be achieved, is also, of importance for all policy- . making:purposes. A forecast should include-estimates 'vice versa. , . - of intermediate events which can be utilized to check whether the historical process is remaining, on the Bobrow summarizes his conclusions aboutcriteria projected trajectory or is deviating.to such an 8-Xtent: for,forecastsasfollows: Accuracy is iMportant only in that the policy is in serious danger of failing, forecasts supporting policies foi administrative, ef- ficiency. Far. many-Purposes; face .importance is,the Finally, while Babhw mentions credibility fora most weighty criterion. The infrastructure (data base, several purposes, it is in fact an important criterion for all purposes. If a forecast isnot credible, it will not be ,post boe Predictive success, etc.) of the forecast may be ,more important4or, many purposes, than-the actual utiliied as a basis for action An particulat, the linkages between specificpossible outcomes and specific estimate. of future conditions: 3 Choices made at intervening decision points must be Several ..comments are in order aboutvhis con- credible. elusions, First; I; believe:he is in,error regarding the importance of accuracy In, supp'Ort of policies of Erich -Jantsch administrative efficiency. fi apparentlyassumes that . Jantsch6 has outlined a very complex scheme thete is anlione possible future and /hat theagency irk involiing gplicymaking, strategy, and tactics. His question desiresid' plaCeitself in a, posture of scheMe is depicted in Figure I. Jantsch specifically Maximum. efficiency Within that:. future: HoweVer, looks upon policylkaking asprocess of adjusting ttereeare alwaysmany possible futures, contingent- values to make them-consonant with the environment:- upon decisionsnot yetmade; An agency may well wish For him forecastinCtikes.place at threelevels. At the to tailor the future to itself rather than Vice versa. It tactical level, forecasting deals with the probabilistic , . , must .therefpre have .forecasts of alternative futures assessment of activities, eitherNhose actUally, being "available. At most one of these fotecasts can be partied 'out or those which must be analyied prior to a aecnrate,-since the agericY Will attempt to forestall the . decision as to which to carry out. Atthe strategic leyel, others. Thislis'siniplY the self - fulfilling' /self- defeating forecasting deals With the identification and _even the paradox ivhich. i have ,discussecf elsewhere.P In, the 4i4r,inve-rition of feasible activities. AilliepOlicymaking _presence of thrparadox, "the future". (in thesense of i level, forecasting deals with the' invention of an- single future)dOes not exist, and accuracy in predicting,. ticipations, which Jahtsch defines (after H..Ozbekhan) not an impoiftant criterion. Accuracy is impOlitant As "intellectively constiucted models of possible only in thosepasesin,Which the actor has no power to factures," and which he ,viewsas roughly- equivalent influence the outcOrne: Almost, by definition,'-this . Aro"' with de Jouvenert.",,filtuyibleS7 or Herman Kahn's exchides all poliernars: .'alternative woriPftituies.": 'The inventiveaspect of . V . . Figure 1. Struciered ratiOnelizatiiii ofcreative action. (Dottedarrows inilitatelesdbadi.) ' .I forecastingis, especiallyimportant forJantsch. -tit -6: Allocating problems, volues,, and "resources..This Nforeover, it is a creative activity. The invention involves assigning to Subelemen4 of the policymaking anticipations cannot be done'deductively. there is no system responsibility for solving :Problems, main-. . algoiithm by which the forecaster can exhaustively taining values, and utilizing resources. 6generate. allpossible. futures. Thus Jants'ars., an- ticipations play much the same role astolars images 7. Determining policymaking strategy..This involves et, of the future.'They are essential. at the nblicymaking determining the orientations and postures of the level of human activity, they arebasedon values held policymakers, (e.g., should .they stick to ,incremental by humans and serve toadjustthe :acceptable policymaking, orhould 'they attempt risky in-) thresholds for these values, and they represent the novaPons). starting point for all choice- oriented activity.- Jantsch does bot'specifically identify any criteria for Stag* 2Policymiking foiecasts in his scheme. However, severalare implied his.discussion. There must be sufficient lead time in 8. Suballocating resources. This involves taking the orecast to permit carrying out the policy, those resources allodated to a single policy issue and especially where this may require the design of new # suballocating them to the phases of the policymaking. social systems with the preferred dynamic chafacteris- 9. Establishing operational goals with some order of tics, and the creatidn of new institutions. Credibility of priority. This phaseinvolves establishing goals by each forecasts, in terms of the purported linkages between of he subelements of the policymaking system atid instruments' of poliby, and the state the policyis 'assigning priorities(to them. intended to achieve, is also vital: Finally, forecasts must be capable of providing the inspiration and 10. Establishing a set of other significant values with motivation needed to support the policies to-which--, some order of priority. This involves identifying those they give rise., values, not directly a part of some problem, which- .might be affectilit.,.by solutions to one or more prolilerns' Yohozkol Dror '.- and establishi priorities among these values. \ . Dro; presents a model of Optimal policymaking. ° 11. Preparing a set of nfajor alternative policies,:, This model includes three main stages, with a total of-including some "good".ones. This involves delimiting 18 phases. These are outlined below. the set of polici s to be considered but assuring thattthe 41. r. 4'1' Set includes 'atast one which is "good" in terms of its tv benefits and co ". Stage 1MotapolicyrakIng 12. Preparing reliable predictions of the significant 1. Processing values. This invoble,s identifying and benefits and costs of the various alternatives..: Thig making explicit the values held by the policymaker's phase explicitly involves forecasting the costs and constituency.* benefits of the various alternative policies retained for consideration. Dror points opt that predicting the 2. Processing reality. This involves identifyinithose_ Costs and benefits of new and, innbvative policie,i is Aped§ of reality which are .relevant to the valueS more difficult than predicting the costs and benefijs of,, identified above and obtainieg as accurat n image a's - more familiar policies. The tiade-offbetween reliabili- . possible of these aspects o lity. tyof predictiim and innovativenessdesired In 3. Processing,,prO ms. s determining,log,. policymaking should have been mrde at Phase,when, ,the, differenceli.iStween val held and reality,These pblicymaking strategy was settled. The optim 1 set,of A14*-: differenmjfierfleonstitute problems to besolved. predictions should meet the following crite 4. Surveying, procesiing, and developing resources., a. $enefitsTand costs should be statedxplicitly, This im;olves identifying' those ,elements of reality with a Probabilistic assessment of each,heie Ap- which can. be used as resources to solve the problems propriate.,, ;identified above. b. Validity of thepgdictions sh uld be indicated, 5.Deigning, evaluating, and redeSigning the- including explicit identification oft iticakaSsumptions and sensitivity of the predictions errors in assump-. policymaking system. This involves optimizingthe / policyniaking system to enable. it to' dal with the. tions: problemi previously identified. c.Probathlity of .unpre ictable consequenceS 04,4 i i1 , r , should be estimated, including critical assumptions . In his. model Dror reserves one phase explicitly for regarding these deviations. forecasting and has derived criteria for forecasts(see d. The time horiion or cutoff should beindicated Phase 12 above). However, healso anticipatesthe need explicitly, withsome estimate Made of thespillover for forecasts in other phasesas well. For instance, intolong7term consequences, effects outsidethe Phase 2 requires identifying not onl*thepast and desired sphere of activity, 'etc. present reality but future reality.also, HoweCer, Dror does not derive any criteria for good forecastsof future 13. Comparing the predicted benefits andcosts of reality. Nor are criteria for forecasti stated inany of the the various alternatives and identifying the "best"ones. other phases in which they might beneeded. This involves search for a-dominantalternItive, if one exists in the set of policies under considerationor, if no One of the strong points of Dror's model isthe dominant policy exists, identi with' the explicit incotporationof , what he terms :"extra- "best" trade-offs amongC s and benefits. rational" processes. He recognizes thetneed for Creativity at :.various phases of the pdficymaking ' 14. E'valuating the benefits and costs of the"best" alternatiles and deciding whether process, such as, the invention of policies whenno they are "good" or existingpolicyalternative not. It is not sufficient to determine that policy which is is"goodenough." the best of those under consideratibn. Moreo,ver, he states that we have considerableresearch It is also knowledge 'about what factors stimulate .creativity. necessar3qto determine whether this poIrcy isgood Hence we should design the.policymakingprocess so enough to do the job. If at.this phase the best isfound that it incorporates creativity-enhancing factorswhere to be not good enough, a search fornew iEolicy alternatives is begun. creativity,is required. The Fine holds true formany otherextra-ratidnal 'aspectsof mentalactivity. Nevertheless,, despite this emphasison the ektra- rational, Dror never explicitly calls for anythingakin . . to Polak'S "image of the future" or- Jantsch's "an- Stage 3Postpoilcyinaking . lialpations." 15.. Motivating -the, executing of the policy. -After a, Such a Forecast might be implicit inglhase 1,which policy, is selected, it must be executed.This phase \ involves thoseorginizational examines existing values, or in Phase 3, which steps needed to allocate identifies deviations between existingvalues and resources, give orders, and follow up. existing reality- but at best it. is only hintedat._ In '16.Executing the policy. This phase ' involves addition, in Phase 11 by implication forecastsmust be carrying out the policy whichhas been ordered into'used to connect 'outcomes with specificpolicies.' execution. Howevei, 'Dror does not exPlicitly call for Totecastsat this point. Thus* Dror, does not.seem to aSsign,.to 174valuating the policymaking:after the pOlicyhar forecastingtheroleof ."prime mover" inthe been executed. This phase determines how well the policymaking process which Polak and Jantsch assign policy accomplishes what it is supposedto accomplish to it, nor doei assign. to' it the role of providiftW a'nd identifies lessons for "the next tittle." credible linkages between input andoutput as Bobrow . . ,18. Communication and feedback*mielsinter- andJantsch do. For Dror forecastingexplicitly, plays connecting all. phases. Thepreceding outline has.6., only the role of reducing unciftainty aboutcosts-and implied that the policy-making modelrequires these benefits ol alternative policies' policies have ' phases to be carriedout in sequence and without already .6een identified. Pot phispurpose forecasts- . deviation, In fact a polidy constructed and carried out, ,must.meet the 'criteria Oien in Phase 14 in such a manner, could hot Ibe optimal.This phase, . then, is not thriait ofa sequence but covers all Graham Allispn communication and feedback betweenphases. For Allison8'has discussed the policy. making instance, it has already been indicated inthe descrip-t. profess in a tion of Phase 14 that if the best polity is stillnot good' framework involving three conceptualModels: the enough,l4a searClifor new optionsmust be madi (i.e.,; "rational actor,""organizationalprocessl," And "-'bureauciatic politics." Each of these is intended returning to _phase 11.). In his description DrITgives:" . many more examples df suchfeedback loops .which exemplify a particular type of policymakVng. 'Mint biiidegether all the phses o his optimal Model. In the rational actor model, the entirepolicymaking. All theie imps are subsume this phaseS 'process is zersonified-asa single actor who acts with .; perfect knowledge and in the light of consistent goals ,permthe actor to make all necessary preparations and values. In a complex policymalcang system, it is and cnges in his resource allocations; and feedback assumed that the activities of lower level policymakers from i termiate events* to allow thactor to be are consistent Withnd derivable from thq policies set certain terventions are having the desired effect. by _higher level pacemakers. Moreover, this model Finally, the forecast must provide a sufficient range of assumes that all the values of the rational actor can be * futures that the actor can haVe a high degree of condensed into a single payoff function, so that assurance he/las located a true (global) optimum. maximization of that single function becomes the goal From the standpoint of a bureaucratic actor, a of the actor. , 0 forecast must meet ,the following criteria:it must In the bureaucratic politics model, policies are seen include many features to provide room for bargaining as the outcome of bargaining among a se56f actors, among various actors (indeed, there is a premium on each of whom is the leader of some organization or creating options ich are credible and which have constituency and each of which has its own interests "something for eve body"),and it mustestiniate the and goals. These actors do not locus on single issues impact of the outc e on thetor'vonstituencf or but instead look at many diverse issues, opening the agency, especially paets 'Which were not intended or door to logrolling and "politicking" on individual foreseen by those roposing a specific policy. The lead issues. In the bureaucratic politics model, polieles are time provided by the forecast must be sufficient to not made by rational choices involving a single.set of allow the political process to be cariedout, especially values but instead arise from the dickering and horse the bargaining which may involve a multitude of trading of politics. 4 arties and the packaging or bundling of unrelated issues. Mo ver,the forecast must provide sufficient In the organizational process,model, the emphasis is lead time toal w successful outwaiting of "filibusters,' on the constraints posed by organizational _fork'. by actors wh e own interests would best be seried if a organizationsarereallyinformation-processing decision-be once moot through the passage of events. smstems.."Thpy are designed to take inpUts of specific The forecast must provide a credible linkage between kinds; process them thlough standard operating the desired Outcome and the actions of specific actors procedures, and convert them, to specific kinds of and,- piloilide- feedback from intermediate events to decisions or actions. In particular, organizations are perinit reopening of the bargaining if it appears that intended,tosolvewell-characterized problemsiMoreover, _,0 one part of a package deal is turning outunekpectedly. a specific class of problems tends tOgive,rise_ Moreover, from 'the standpoint of each actor, this to,a specific 'organization to deal with that glass.g (e.. feedback should beeary inough that he retains tome problems of international policy are divided into those leverage througlt, actions he has not yet taken in which are handled by the State Departmentand thoise supitart ipolicies,of greater, interest to other actors. which are handled by the Department of Defense). Thus organizations tend to see the world in terms of the From thf standpoint of the organizational process functions they have been established to perform. The actor: a forecast must meet the following criteria; it policies they espouse tend to be those which.require the must deal with one of the class of problems the functions they have demonstrated their alAlity to organization was established to handle,, and it. must, perform. . _break the pi-Oblem down into manageable pitces in a manner which is compatible With the structure of the Allison does not address the Nestion Of criteria for organization. The forecast must provide sufficient lead forecasts to be utilized by each of his actors. However, time lb{ the organizatioto cIrryout the appropriate his-models go a.lOng way toward explaining some of standard 'operating proceaffs and provide feedback the characteristicspf policymaking in government and from intermediate events. However, these events mist in large private:' organizations. Therefore it appeacs to be seen as filling 1,y ithin the,scope and function of the be worthwhilefraine,some criteria for each of these organization and must be among those events which -,actors. some portion of the organization is responsible for moire ring, The forecast "mp,ir provide a credible. From the standpoint of asational actor, a forecast must meet the following criteria: it must provide a' linkage between 'the final .oVtcome and actions by' 'specific segments of the organization. credible' linkage between various possible outcomes t and policy inst -ruments under the control of thector, I. 1.estimates of the impacts to be expected on all values which are important to the actor, sufficlentlead timelo 118 130 I . Summary two types of researchproblems: One deals with face and, Concluilons 'credibility. , . , 1 After examining the policymaking process through What internal characteristictinusta forecast have _several -models and identifying the and hbw should it be presented characteristics of,; to make it credible to. forecasts required by each model,we can summarize' the potential user? This becomes especiallyimportant .hose elements which are common to severalmodels or if the events forecaitare different from those which seem to provide inisportailinsightseven though within the experience of the policymakerusing the they.appear in one model only:' In this sectionI present forecast. The other research problemdeals with the some characteristics of 'forecasts derived fromthe technical issue of forecasting methodOlogy.Which' 'preceding analysis of the relation betweenforecasting methodologies deservecredence?How much credence? and policymaking.In addition,Iindicate some Can new methodologies be devised whichare inherent-, ly more deserving of credence? jesearchprobleMs suggesterlb)T. the characteristici. How can one tell whether a forecasting methodolOgydeseryes credence One of the first considesrations'is thatforecasts Lave in a specific situation? impact upon ",t7tolicymakinglgeverallevels. /it the 'highest level; foretcasts serveas images of poissible Range of Futures' futures. These images are the primemovers/ avhich. drive the policyma.k Mgprocess, which, serve 'to The range df futures covered bya forecast should be sufficiently large that it. providenenuine coordinate the actions of all involved Inthe- process, . aletnatives and whir motivate peoplesto suppontspecic policies./to the policymaker..The various futuresmust not alibe At a lOwele1, forecast+ serve to..aen ify feas'ible/ minor variations ima single theme, nor shotild The actions.which might becarried out in support of given/ ideck 'be stacked by theinclusionof only one policies. At a yet lower level, fo'reCasts, "prpferred" future and several totally serve to assess , unacceptable-. the possible outcomes of ,various alternatives. The- policymaker should ./ -.14,, specific actions, be forced to allowing participants in the *policyrnIkingproces to exercise his entirerange of values and to make the select those actions which-are most efficaciO s in. trade-offs among c ompetingor contradictory values to,. / furthering specific policies. J sure that the policy ultimately sele,eted doesindeed 1 ad to a future which is:desirable. At any of these levels, the charadteristies Research pr} re uired of ere deal with identifying the value forecasts are generally thesame. frawever,at he lower structures of p licytnakers and their constituenciesas well as 'the . `levels- there is a greater nfed 'for specificity and technical issue of the congruhtion concreteness and also a focus on the nearer of .'scenarios term. At embodying different tratle-offsamong higher levels,, the requirement is values. for, 'greater in- -,'; . ; --- . - elusiveness and for focus on the longerterm. Keeping .Leacts.Tirne i these differences-in mind,however, it isitili possible to discuss on a general basis the requirementsplaced on From one standpoint lead time is thewhole point of - forecasts. 1 . a forecast. The only ,reason` for knewingabout something before it happens is -toallow time Credibility preparation. Thus a forecast niust/ProVi&suffic lead time for ipStitutional.ariangements One of She key requirements fofta to bern forecast is -for 'orgariiiationalprocesses to ihelarried out4om- credibility. Without credibility afOrecast' is incapable bargaining,to be completed,and for decisionS,apd of priividing 4/basis for action. The forecastuser must choices to be made by the, public-and.,,the' elites believe that the measures proposedcan indeed achieve involved. From another standpointlead time may be the desiredoutcomes.That is, the forecast requires face beyond the control ofthe forecaster. He may.,not be credibility. Beyond that, the -forecast rini*inspire .1 -asked-for a particular forecastuntibit is too late for his- confidence in the correctness-of -itsestimates, of the foreeast 'to 'be' useful, events forecast (whether- these are probabiligtic-ipy £ven. though he could. have prOvided a useful forecast had.e.beenasked sooner. deterministic).. There must be credible linkage. Beyond This, however,- there 3*', between the,outcome desired, and, the actions to he. are -some research taken or the policy, instruments problems- arising fro qt theed for leadlime and the to be utilized in inevitable tra e-bff between achieving outepme., recis'on and tirnelength the..sensitivity, _to of a forecast. e farther inth future the forecast assUmptions and to errors of fatftiutistbeindicatedto . reinf rce musfbe lexte de-cis-the less the preciSion whichcan be' The crerairlety. e gives rise to expected (e.g, in, a§sessing the prObabilities ofyarious fly" I . t possible events). Research is needed on the precision to Clarity ' - be expected from various forecasting methodologies,. . I ..4 as a function of length of forecast, uncertainty in data 'Tile forecast must have claritysufficientto proYide a. . utilized, etc. In addition, better methods are needed,, basis for decision.. it the forecdst crear-about which will permit a better trade-off between pr onion whif events are and are not expected td\octur, or if the and length of forecast. . identity Of the events themselves is unclear, the forecast 44 provides no help to the policYmaker Who' must choose Intermediate Events among alternative policies. Lack of'clarity may arise from incompetence or deliberate arribiguity on'the part - The forecast must itkptify_ interfnediate% events of the forecaster. Barring this, however, research which are to be expected between the initial interven- --probletin exist-both in forecasting methodologiesthat tion resulting from execution of a policy and the " are capable of distinguishing among events which are achievement of the Itate or condition which is the superficially similar but whicltare perceived by' the objectiye of the policy. These evenfs provide feedback policymaker as having highly differenrvalue structures about the effectivehas of past interventionend- and in metipids of communicating forecasts to ,the provide error signals for changed' or- additional policymaker, '0 that he Understands. the value ink, interventions. The forecast must identify the events to plications .different possible efents. T,,his latter is .. be monitored so the monitoring process can be parlictdarly important because the forecaster and the established as part of the follow-up of policymaking. policymaker tend to come from different backgrounds Research problems here arise from,the uncertainty to andto use different teefinical jargon, hindering be expected of a given,trajectory through titne.,poes communication. , theoccurrenceof some eventreally represent t . adherence to a trajectory, or is it.only Itiosely coupled Structure, to the, desited process so that its occurrence comes in spite of significant deviation? Conversely, does the The. structure of the forecast should be compatible occurrenceof an unfarecastintermediate event with the structure of the policymaking system so that indicate a deviation froth the desired trajectory, or is it the ovell 'policy issue can be decomposed into only a low-probability event which-managed to occur disci* int) 'Slides assignable to specipc 'subordinate despite the overall success of the past policy interven- elements. That is/ the structure of thaforecast should tions? Research-is needed to define the degree of match, tie- stilictuR of the Mglinization which must, deviation which can be expected under' various comprehend an use the. faecast. Reseatch problems circumstances, and when various, forecasting techni- existherein cataloging types of organizational 9ues have been utilized. structure and The effect &the...communication process' 'n various organisational structures On theuse of °recasts. Ideally, research in this area would sable C.ampletenesi, , the forecaster. to tailor his forecast stio,that it-was . - Thf forecast shand indicate impacts on all the isosnorpffic to the policymaking system which will' values held to be important-by the policymaker or his have to use it:, . constituents. fnddition, the forecast should indicate -: the space apd timetorizons or cut-offs it considers and Image estimate the degree of spillovei beyond these cut-offs. 4 Research problems here deal with what have been Anutiikte: 'forecast must be capable of motivating called "unIcniwn unknowns,"- that 'is,things the and inspiring those-who-will execute #l~ig policy arid. foreCaster does not know and doe 'not realize hedges thosaWhose support (active;or passive) is needed to. 'not know, as contrasted with "known un,knowns", ..4aCute 'the policy. Research prphlems here involve those this he is aware he does not know. Research on idefitification of the values of various ptiblic-sand elites forecastin techniquesisneeded toreduce the andie trade-offs thete elements haveamong the incidence of isknown unknolvns by identifying where- values, theY, hold. This information Can be used not,, speCific tech qua have,,blind spots Or'tenaincies to ,only to predict likelvssupport or opposition.am°4 break dow Once a forecast is needed it is too latato various also to tailoi- images Which provide. identify unknown unknowns. The forecaster should _a satisfactory degree of appeal to wide segments of tile already be aware, as a result of prior research, of the population. Pulin a less manipulative Way,41til will pitfalls inherent lit' the methods he is using so that'he allow tailbring Policie which indeed respiOnirio:the may take appropriate steps to bypass them. aspiration's of ignificant segments of the.pOpidatiOn. 7: ) 1432 4 : ,, , FOOTNOTES FLPolak;' The image of the Future, Elise Boulding (trans.),- Gordon (eds.) (New York: Gordon (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1972).. & Breach, 1972).;" 7 Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting forDecision- Gray L. Dorsey, "Constitutional Obligation," in J. Rolatid making (New York: American Elsevier, 1972), 'Pennock and John y. Chapman (ads.), p. Political and Legal - 6 Erich Jantsch, "frOni Forecasting and Planning to Policy- Obligation (New Yolk: Atherton cress, 4970). Sciences," Policy Sciences, Vol. I (1970),pp. 31-47. ° 3 Sir Geoffrey Vickers,_7C_ornrno_nly IgnoredElements in Yehczkej Dror, Public Policymaking Reexamined(San Fran- Policymiking,' Fancy Sciences, Vol. 3 (1972),pp. 265-266. viscd: Chandler, 1968). 4 Davis Bobrow, "Political and Social Forecasting: Purposes, 3 Grlham Allison, Essence of Deasion, Explaining theCuban Criteria, and Recent Emphasis," in Walter A. HahnantiKenne4h F. Missile Crisis (Bostbn: Littke, Brown,1971). . , . t 1$ V . Chapter 11 Problems inFuturesResearch* ..Ida R. Hoos . .1 Gertrude Stein-once consigned a place to instant As-Tar criteria for "good" futures research, there are oblwkon by her comment, "There is no there there." noncidentifiable now; it is dotibtful that there can be, Similarly, although with less nicety of dispatch, futu- any, and it might be healthier for Vie future if there rologists have succeeding in disposing of time. For were' not any anyway. those of us in wham the dizzying kaleidoscope. of z2, past half-century has inspired the question,'"Is it now - already?" they balm a ready answer: "The future is 'History and !,,Ifacts" now," This compression of the time, etement should simplify their task, because that which is here and now, If accuracy. be the criterion then even_past And i.e., like present, should be considerably more amen'- present are subject to interRretat on. "The facts,' says . ble fo study and undersLinding than the:linfathomed Edward Hallet Carr,' "speak o y when the historian future. But the semantic collapse of the time dimension calls on them: iris he who decide to Which facti to give.. does-not carry over into the logic or the logistics of the the floor, and in What' order or ontext." Carr quote's futurologists. When we exi 'ne their concerns, we lines spoken by a Character in a Pirandello play: "A` .1 ;, find them delving into the "pos -ackv" with little alten- :fact is like a'sack; it won't stand p till you've putso_me- ":" 4wion to the obstacles and metdological defjciencie thing jnit." Understandably then, there can be as that impede a surer unders ding of where we are. many views of the pastas the e are historians, who try, now let alone where we are ()MI; t to document what has happened, and historio- graphers,' who try to make sense out of all. For . Thikis a serious oversight, because the future is Spengler2 the dynamic was clear , the course- deter- longer by fai than the present and- the mistakes ark. mined.:He.scanned the past and:traced the life course 'greater byniany orders 9f magnitude. The difficulties', -of the various. cultures. For ours_he foretold deStruc-_ stem from two main interrelated problems: (1).the easy tion, mainly because of technology, which, he argued, assumption but lack of a scientifically verifiahle had altered the face of thevarth and made high priests niqueorStudying that which has not happened and (2) of its elgineers. But, he iitOmiSed,Ahe machine, Ile,: the dearth of reliable data, the sine qda non f or "goor real queen ofthis century," willsuccumb becauselie.. research: This chapter will concern itself mainly with the second problemit is my contention that the infor- last cOnflict, is at hand 'the conflict between money, '::, and blood. "And so the -drama of a higlutilture4'7t mation,base, how it is derived and used and bywhomt,is critically important in-understanding social pro -'`-.wondrous. world_ of deities, arts,..thOughts3att* -cesses,:whatever their- time franie: past, present, or "citiescloses with the return okthepristinefaCisofthe,' blood eternal that is one and the same asthe"eyer; future. And a review °Nil thiee temporal foci casts , cir,clingeosmic one direction, obligatory t muchmore,doubt than light. . - and willed; we "havethefieedoin tb,do the necessary, qr. Such being the case, this chapter starts with its nothing." In other words, wear; doomed if we do and conclusion, viz., that given the preseiiiltate-of-the-art doomed if we,a90 . Off Iutures research," the Classic example of, the Greek sibyls, who produced deliberate doubletalk, may be the - --TOYnbet disattees:Althouth he chsce-K4 uniformity in the` isintegration and"dissQlutionof civilizations; -of wisest, safest, and mosedssirable in the final analysis..= wfiict.hridentifieszn-rhinonetheleSsAigtiasiliatithe cyclic view woitld,if taken seriotiSlyT"rediii:e historyt Ed. note:The original version of t his chapter was entitled "Criteria a tale told by an idiot,:signifyingnOthing0He for 'Good' Futures Research".and wabpublished in ittentirety,in utes thedemigo:earliir,eivilizationsi theirfailursto: Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Vol. 6,-,No. 2 (1974).01)...113-132. The somewhat revised and abridged version meet nthe challengesi,of iheif time bt4:,,cohtencts4 presented here ws preparedbythe editor, who also assumes modern t.nte respoosibilit), fortfenew title. Ihediyine-Rlan; eXteptikii;ane,t'"Inithei'cirnii -. ff technology that has linked all mankind underthe sophisticated tools which are the sine, qua non of menacing mushroom cloud of= total annihilation. toria)r;s futurologists. One .cannot but be impressed Where once the "eggs of humanity were happily dis- with kthe aptness of the fit of,t he ,Sensate Culture forour tributal amartg many baskets, so that some-could "poinfin.tirne"! remain intact even while others got broken, now they are all vulnerable to the same technologically induced Acbepting Carr's dictum that :theOfin a hard d;ngers. core of historical facts existing objectively and inde- pendently of thi interpretation of the historian is a Sorokin sees technology not as the deriver but as a preposterous fallacy;"6 we are faced with the.inelucki- manifestation of a prevailing Zeitgeist. Forty. years ble conclusion that accuracy is not a useful criterion in ago, long before anyone thought of using Miehelange- judging the historian's craft. Indeed,forging the facts ,lo's David to advertise men's clothing or putting the history has long been a respectable pastime, Mona Lisi under a_ hair, dryer, Sorokin rn-ovidosi us_ exceeded only in popularity by the posthumous With detailed characteristics of the Sensate Cuhure debunking of events and defrocking of personages. which has been used by Kahn anothers as the mord , Any doOting Thomas can sing as did Sporting Life: for the futuro.5 Its term, Sense, was literally applied "It ain't necessarily so!" to indicate that only that whichas presented to the Troublesome with respect to the past, mattes offc_t sense organs is real. Sorokin said that in this type of era. become acutwas We approach the present. the great cultural values of the pait would be degraded: . 41- . , . ",Michaelangelos and Rainbrandts wjlYbe decorating t rst of all, such e istemological considerations 4s how, soap and razor blades, washing machines, and whisky we know what w knpw. Walter Lippman, long ago, ip bottles." In the Sensate Culture, values are empirical an insightful essay otc"stereotypes," pointed out the impossibility of attaining pure objectivity. Myrdal sug- and material, always relativistic and tacking in sacred, , eternal imperatives. Its pervasive goal is control over Bested that at best we ca5 only acknowledge odibias. nature and other men; science and its system of truth In recent years, social scientists, with their ready accep- dominates. tance of verbal and conceptual droppings from the . hard sciencesdiave happily adopted, the "Heisenberg Ai Sorokin reviewed earlier cultures whiclt-hadgone . Principk" for their own,' the vulgate being that the through this period, he looked for trends and foresaw experimenter himself is inevitably in the experiment crisis: "The boundary line between the true and false, and plays a crucial role in its outcome. 0 urse, this is the right and wrong, the beautiful and the ugly, posi- nothing new, but it sounds,so mushore impressive 'ive, and negative values, will be, obliterated increas- when expressed in the languagef `physics, (Long 4 ingly until mental, moraVaesthetic, and social anarchy observation on this matter sugge a rule: the "softer" reigns supreme." "Freedom-will become a 'meremyth the scienceilit' more prone it isth'ki Botti±' for the majoiritty and will be turned into an _unbridled geois Gentilhomme behavior.) licentiousness by the`dominintininonty." "Govern- ments will become more and moil fraudulent and fromthe Philosophical tdthe b we tyrannical, gel; bombs instead of bread, death come face to face with the problem ofnformatiOn in our time. In our zealous pursuit of ,weltaye all but instead of freedonviolence instead of law; destruction. instead of creation." "Divorces and Separations will forgotten that data are-not, as the Latin origin sug-,` increase until any perceived difference between socially gests, given but are actually gotten. Our almost fanatic sanctioned maynages and illicit sex relationships dis- reliance on data 'poi,nts_up a faith not justified, an attri- appears." "Quantitative colossalismyill substitute for bution of reliability more wishful than Veal; or it may qualitative refinement; the biggest for the best; a best- perhaps be , a conscious; cynical trade-off on the assumption. that anything is better than nothing. Much -`- sellerfor a classic..technique for genius;..'oper- ational manip4lationr for an enlightening intuition. has been written about the data explosion, the m4hol- agy of themore.the better, andfthe technocratic41y "Suicide, mental disease, and crime will, grow. Weari-, ness will spread over larger and larger numbers of the derived nonsense that an;infaimatiexperris some- population." . one equally capable of liandlingthe machines and what - . goes into them .s We are the n&Featikensteins, and we No doubt there are many historians who would have created a monsterthe information system. First 'question. gorokin's "facts";, certainly hi? "law of we rationalize it by justifying its "feasibility." Then we immanent , causation" haS, not won the uniVersal build it, with an appe,tite exaggerated by our expecta, acclaim and acceptance that was his dream. But ihis is tions Ofitsperforknance in :our service. As a not to belittle his accomplishment andwithont the consequence, we` ,must. keep feeding it. Its digestive 2 3 1 3 5 47,..4-t .* cN .1114 -., . I tip ., - e A. 4 . - k: . .4.t-1 capacitybeinggreaterthan ..ourconsumptive Data 'originated-11)y the federal government are capabilities, we soon findourselves Innudated29. < obtained as tobservations suppliedjby respond- Finak,, 'we are Aevotired andour OrposeS are ents'.on their persons Or actiVitiesgs direct mea- subvertedtik'whole enterprise an Information- suremerits,and counts made by governstriententa gathering and .Pittcessing exercise having little Pele-. ..s.,. merators, and as internal records arising out of-the vance to the task at hand.10 operations of agencies. Some data received by the . federal governmept frOm Original collettions. sponsored by states and localities are received as. - Datocumentatifin,andthe Research -copies of primary unit recordS, and other data Furion' .fronrsimilar.origiV5sollections arrive in' federal c, .agencies as summailli forNediffeLent jurisdic- No matter what techniques *forecasting the future - tions. Although some editing and processing of are utilized, much will depend on, the reliability of the data gathered.byt he federal government are done data on as and present.,,,the pait, we have seen, is a 4 by federal agencies, these functions are also per- vast and rich regervof hich fact turns out to be 'a formed by the states and localities on much of the, f ping expedition. What weknowafficially about the data originally gathered by themi with different dent is derived from the.bpdy &facts and figures on degreesoft, intergovernmentalcoordibation., which public polity is based, and decisions made. Federalholdingialso ;includeconsiderable Althimgif mindful of the slips 'twixtcup and lip=the collections_ done 4outside government. ',vagaries, vicissitude's, ancrdownright perversity of the Many hands,- publjc and private, federal and non; factors bearing on decisions in the public sectorI federal, participate in collecting, ed*innta- nonetheless deem 11 important to consider the mecha- firing, and processing the data held tal rec- nisms through whiCh the government gathersits ords. There is enormous diversity in the sot* * AL4,1?,information. Importapt now, this matter'becomescru- and characteristics ofdata used by the federal later in thi&chapter when social indicators are dis- ernrvent. [Italicsacided]12. ' cussed. There is., to begin with, the Federal statistical '1** system, at the core of which are the agencies whose pri- Eventhis -brierselection, although uncritical in its Mary mission is the preparation of statistics about peo- intent:, suggests pbssibilities for enormous univeness in ple, organizations, and activities. The greater portion quay; One of the 'members of the commission, Wil- of Federal statistics comes not from-statistical...but from,*liamXiliskal-zt the Statiitics Department at the Unit operating agencies and relates -more to government versity of Chicago, subsequently corrimeifted, "Much than to private matters: Thus not only are there the. of that buieeloud aLstatistical thoughrand action, a. descriptive -seriesof economic and demographic loud that suffuses all government activity, is iikear indexes, such,as the Currenf-Population:Survey, fRe ried out by. people called statisticians, or trained as. gross national- product, t Consniner vstatiitician's. Much oft it. is 'not regarded as- having birth' and death statistics, -end the like, but ais4%he're-51.? importantstatistical.components.Consequently, are the wider range of statistical matte,rspeg "r9 g to niuch'of it is of poor quality."Is'Icruskal noted thata weapo0 evaluation, scitaj experiments agric aural gi-eat deal of Federal statistics, whether- or not it field trials, ancF reliability SA 's SpeCifically so labeled; is performed under contract by, priVate firms and is 9f highly variable quality. With calculations, as well as predictiOn of,mdir47,- st. 1971 a President's Commission on Federal- tat' t present contracting and _review procedures coMpleted an evaluation of the present performance of:.effect' impinvenient in processional standards; he the Federal statisticalsystent and issued.a two-volume proposes this as an item of top pirOiity for the 'Commit- report.INSome of the naterial presented is merely der tee on National Statistics, an activiW of the Division of scriptive: ". Mathematical,Sciences in the National Academy of Sciences /National Research Council: _ arrive in federal, files- e? in various forms s. ,--BaSic data are generated by the federal govern-_,z, owever necessary such.a step might be, it isjar 4 rnent, in joint federal-state operating and statisti- from sufficient to overcome, thi complex of factors cal programs, and in a great many.state andlocal working against "improvement" bf fetrilAtatistics as service, regulatory, ancijaw enforcement nosy conceived.Oze stumbling Illeck is the quantity +fy activities. At each revel of-goy-et-went, ,data are and quantitati4=4orientatiodof theyhole entikprise, gathered by the agencies and through contracts the moreso as whatever gets gathered must -fir into a ... with private firms and colleges and universities.' Prefabricated Nystem." Possessed with the ttftency to . -124 136 D . - achieve cOmpatibility,'especialq in view of increasing achieved! Sometimei_ a figure is offered to meet a dead- interaction 'between levels' and lAyers of governmer#, line and becomes quoted in several 'places; then, by ° and obsessed with notions' of Machined efficiency, apparent corroboration, it is crystallized into firm committees have time and again been caughtwith their input.'? trained incapacity showidk 14 The National Data Cen- ter of ill repute in the 1960's keeps *resurfacing under Another obStacle to "improvement" of federal statis- such guises as Reorganization or Coordination, with tics lies in the very nature of bureaucracy, its first order convenience of handlingand processing the predomi- of business being silipreseevation and? its first law of nant desideratum. Not surprisingly, the 1971 Report procedure being pursuit of the path of least resis- recommends for, decisions regarding statistical pro- tance.20 Consetniently, although high.mindedeommis- grams a formal cost-benefit approach: sions and consultants may prescribe ways to upgrade the enterprise, the prospects for fundamental. change In determining any year's budget allocations, the are very4iim. Regulatory agencies have shown them- ideal procedure wild be to Compare \he-cgsts selves dilatory to the point of sloth and procrastination and benefits of every proposed expenditure and in taking steps to assure the tccuracy of the informa- 4upport only those for which the benefits exceed tion they process and provide. Scrutiny,as to how the the cosis.15 ' Q Food and Drug Administration, the Federal Trade Commission, and theEhvironmentalProtection "Stli This method issuggesfed even thougliaccompanied Agency get their information, what they dcrwith it; and by the caveat that"the comparison of costs and bene- whose purpose& it sgrves uncovers example'after ex- fits cannot-oally be made unlesslt is possible to specify ample of error,miscalculation, and sometimes the benefits of the program in a measurable way and, downright deceit. 3 paiVculaffy for statistical progranii, that is difficult."I6. Onlhis score, Ecklerh- reminds us of another point With regard to the FDA, new evidence emerge&with worth reiterating here: "Efforts to systematize the mea- every Congressional investigation. The lntergovern. mental Relations Subcommittee of the House Oov- surementS of benefits result in giving undue w ht- to minor factors that can be readily quantifieda d,ig ernment Operationrammittee reported in December 1973 thatthe FDA had-continued to allow dosage of. ing niaj Or elements That are hard to measure.' Anthony Downs18 called this borse-and-rabbit stew! the hormones diethystil be, sterol-TES) in animal feeds, r to increase growth of beef *cattle and other food ani- Quantomania has encouraged premature (and even mals, even though evicience",was accumulating that spurioqs) precision'`.` For example, a U.S. Department , DES was capable of causing cancer in some animals of 4tgriculttire report tgithe Office of Managetnent and and that traces of the hormone could not be kept out of Bticiget dutifully produces a benefit-cost ratio of 1164:1 the food products. Moreover, the subcommittee report for lelekrob on live poultry handling and a ratio of accused the agency of being tardy in wing physi- 928:1 for research on scablesistanatpotato varie- ..' clans that use of DES as a drug in pregnant women was ties! Such precision:on the. part of the USDA is all the. unsafe. more miraculotis..when considered in lightocthai -agency's calculations in the 1913 wheat sale to the.*op On theother hand, the FDA took precipitate action Soviet Uniolif*Afong with the notorious informatiOn' with res'jieCt to cyclamate,artificial sweeteners,,which lags and errors that drystallizeifthetrade with Russia .411.e.ricAis. were consurning at the rate of 16._ Million - and catapulted U.S. food prices, we have evidencepf potificketier year. In October' 1969'icyclamates were an undetestimatebi,,agricultuier"departmeritexRerts of banned in foods because, evidence showed that they had caused cancer in rats iti4eyer, regulations did 60 percent on farm prices of wheat. By setting the fig- , ..ure at, 52.49 a bushel, the government paid wheatpaermit their sale as nonprescription drugs, a decision farmers a 54757cmillion sttbsidy unwarranted because reversed some40 months later. On the strength of the the USDA's own action, to export vast quantities of 1958 Delancy Amendment to the Food; Drug, and- wheat to Russia, drove the price to $3.99! Cosmetic Act, then HEW Secretasy Robert Finch wad forced to prohibit ckelamates; even though ,there was Similirinitances of the hardening of st ft data are not then and has not been subsequently, evidence of the more freqUently'found asthe eoSt=lieliefit calcul their having caused cancer in human beings. Repre- becomes mandatory as the rationale for gOvernmerit sentative L. Fountain, heading an investigatiomby fundinefile_tonsequence is that public program theintergovernmental- Relations SubcornmitteePos nilCOmiktb involve criteria like.high.yield or a fav or- fotufdthat Finch did not want to eliminatcomplekly able.benefit:cost ratio and, by hook or by crook, it is sales of products already containingcyclamates. Coin- . ** cidentally, an FDA official mentioned in his testimony ' thumping theme, and much 4s.1.: made of figures:on,; that California fruit growers had just ended thecan- robbery, aggravated aiSault,:a4tlielike: AleVIeIrs ning season and that a signifiCant portion of the fruit ago, then Acting Attorney General, Robert H. Bork, ' had been canned with cyclamates. It was shorttgafter cited,a 3 percent rise in what the FBI rateas."Serious , the ban that the Washington Post reported that' HEW crime" (murder, rape, robbery, and the like) and made, was planning legislative strategy for the elimination of the following remarkable nonsequeiitiai pronounce- the Delancy Amendment. By rechristening cyclamates ment: "This increase in serious .crime in the nation, - as a drug instead of a food additive, the agency demon- means that all of us must continue to support our local strated its own brand of strategic administrative expe- law enforcement agencies in their efforts_ to combat diency and circumvented its own normal procedures of crime in the streets."25 However, if one were to exam- scitritific evaluation. Fountain regarded thisas a sub- ine how the Safe Streets appropriations have 'been. terfuge for evading the law, "discouraging... at ,the spent, one would be struck with their subversion to the time we are trying to impress uponiour young people, busy work of data-gathering and processing, all ration-4 the importance of law and order.422 alized by the notion that this is the way to 'Tight crime." An abortive effOrt to construct an information Crime statistics being notoriously what the police system for the German Federal Health Bureau points ,repolt and definitions of crime being at best legalistic up the complexities of managing informationselating and at worst tautological, information systems are to drugs.23 First, the designers soon learned that the pouring forth a flood of data on -Purse-snatchers and bureau's mission, j.e., thorough and conscientious muggers. And from this we have derived a raft of soci- evaluations, was virtually impossible. 'Clear-gut poli- ologistic correlationi between crime and poverty, poor cies were lacking, and information lay at the very heart housing, unemploymenLand other deprivations. As a of :the obstacles: With some 60600 'drugs on sale in consequence, apologistic measures have been the pop- 'Germany, an unknown number available. in othet ular,mode of response. Implicit here is the notion that countriekarelikely to be imported, and bothcatego-iamelioration of his lot Would keep the felon from "ma- ries increasing rapidly, the number of drugs to bemon-_ turing his felonious little plans" or "the enterpiising itored was tremendous. Second, drugs are not readily burglar from aburgling" to paraphrase the Sergeant in classified and catalogued. Single chemical compounds The Pirates of Penzance.26 are related to one, another in complicated ways, indica- tive ot their complex' molecularstructures,Their rela- Forgotten in the pother over tactics for waging war tions in 'terms t medical effects are even more intri- on poverty and crime in the streets is the possibility cate. third; eftstiveness is not a binary scale but that crime may correlate_with gross national product, contingent upon the disease under treatment. A highly that dealings in narcotics, security fraud, and buying of ,effectiVe preparation-can produce serious side effects, political candidates and high officials to ensure...special e ethe risk of death. Fourth, if the pharmaceutical interest are all manifestations of big business. A New firm eager to market the drug is the primary source of York City police consultant warns that crime today is information about it, effectiveness as` a criterion may "computerizedi, financially sophisticated, and hasmas- Abe overstated. tered the ass, of systems analysis. Using computers, etcroaks are setting the sights of major crime at-new Other sources of information about a drug are highs," he. observes.22 cliffigvIt to classify and evaluate, because they are Because the old-fashioned crooks relativelyeasy to heterogeneous and variable as to authoritativeness, 4:,1, e.g., medical and pharmaceutical journals, 'clinical count and characterize, the systemhas concentrated on reports, experimental results, rumor, etc. Mostiimpor- him. But how dO our statistics reflect organized crime, tant, current information about a drug may and-often especially the kind that involveshigh-level officers and licies, prove to be far les§ significantthan what is police? How do our criminal justice information sys- covered through use, through combination with other tems yield useful data oh-hijackers who have been drugs, and through correlation of information with ar known to 'cause sovereign,nations to capitulate under yet undeteetedtources, particularlytwith the adv. anc threat of massive destruction and massacre? How of analytic and measurement technology. about Ale Arab terrorists who immobjlized a vital transportation nerye center, like London's 4,-leathroW Information on crime is surely no less suspect, in Airport, by threatening to shoot down airliners with' ,spite or because of expensive police information net- Soviet-built surtace-to-air niissiles28 or who. bully the work%with grids so fine as to ensnare potential jurors United States by threats to,drop,bombs on 0-fissile, .along with criminali124 Crime in the streets is the tub- installations; atomic energy plants, and other vulnera- 126 1.36 .0.. . life fpr a good cause., Before.11ong we trfay, istry on Iltiman Kidney Transplants in Chicago of the have to decide., whether we will, like some govern- American college jofSurons and isjationa1,Institutes Ments, 4cie- pe terrorism assa method for. implementing of Health. Commentin on the re issued, in the a policy, national; or international. Perhaps we will /Orme of the American Medical Ass. Beld- exempt from the category such aCtivities as law: ing H. Scribner, a wOrld-renowned kidney specialist, breaking to gain sonie socially acceptable purpose, like said that the report reflected a falsely lowdeathratein electing a president, discrediting a politicaadversary, small Centers: "All the nonre porting centers arestnall, jr topping a potentially obstreperous foreign govern- and my guess isAhat the worsetheir resuits,h)ess ment. In so doin , will we adopt the accommodating. eager they woutkbao volunteetto report thentto the "interpretation" t at accords to terrorism the dignify transplant regisiry, even though the report is, lc* of expresiingssent that should be respected' or tb confidentidV. outright corruption the legitimatetatus of a technique forrallyingsupport -,forome cause? Whatever Information on unemployment is obfus-eated by the happens the crime information in our files will have popular ploy of redefinition. Sometimes the jobless are littleretvance; and improvement, as envisioned cotintedas those who are actively seekingetnp1O-Ytnent, through coordination, may be just more of the same a simple semantic expedientthatantotnatiCally old bureaucratic voodoo to conjure reorganization excludes the hundreds of thousands WhohaVe slopped into appearing like a new vision. investing 'in the futile effort of reportingta their local Department of flurnan'Resources (formerly knownas The census figures are not sacrosanct. This 180-year- the State Emplaynint Office). A series of articesv by. old institution, created by Thomas Jefferson and the- forme chief of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistici anointed in the First Article of the Constitution of the and now vice-president of research, National Bureau United States, has been criticized for its coverage, its of Economic Research, suggests d new statistic. Called gaps, and its propensity for unwelcome snooping. "index of ,unemployment severity,"`this figure and the Because the-decennial census was, however, supposed analyses based on it reachtlie conclusion that the state. to be a source of reliable.and impartial information, it of the 'economy in general and the severity of unem- has served as.the basis for many kinds of official plan- ployment in particular were not then as bad assome ning. But its information an have serious repercus- 'Critics maintained. , sions, for example, as in the case, of the alleged Similar semantic games may be played to promote undercount of Blacks in the cities. T,,be .National the cause-Of special interest groups2The Cost of Living League of.ritiesoonce tried to get a Secretary of the council, for example, withheld information submitted -, Treasury to provide additional Federal funds on the by the couniry!s 7.00 largeit corporations,- i.e., those.;. argument that the data in the 1970 census were false with an annual revenue of at leaSIS3250,..niillion.On.-the and the consequent decisions inequitable. The league ground that the figures requiredwere not 4nurnericielly -claimed that there was an undercount.Of Blacks of 7.7 identical" with those supplied-by the SEC, the council 'percent, or 1.88 millionTelsons,,InOre than:four times kepi data on costs and profitsfromthevery public that- the undercount rate of 1.9 Percent for whites.29 This the gathering of them: Was intended to serveThis,was discrepattcy would directly affect revenue-sharing, the situation that prevailed until aelrefiuit, brOtight by With Newark, New Jersey, losing $.5 million. In similar the Consumers Union, ended in.a ruling by a Federal fashion, local welfare rolls are cut and officials make court that the Cost of Living Council had been with-. political mileage out -of their "management reforms" holding the information illegallyd.g.. - ' only to disclose later that the decline stems from errors in classification, recording, and reporting." After reviewing even thesoisolatedil*tces-ofcon: tradiction and. confusion, can we seriously .expect Doctoring the data is not an uncommon practice in bureaucracies to improve their praetices data?' thefield of medicine. The files of Medicare are full of .1 think not In the game of musical Chairs in WilOhing- services not rendered, drugs. improperly administered, ton, it is likely thai'thepersOns called on to assess and a gamut of other *uses_ wiich, taken gullibly and revise are the very ones 'ViliObada hand in the "estat in the aggregate, Would convey a distorted pietuFe.,But lishment of the enterprise. Any intelligence Postmor- some misstatements are.venial, and slue to bad report.- _tem is likely tobe conductedby persons closely related , ing rather than evil intent.' Such; for.`example, to. the ongoing, endeavor. _Such intelligence Coroners information on kidney transplants and the compara7: tend to accept old 'assumptions and otherwise avoid tive mortality record of large versus small tospitali boat-rocking ff truih' hangs, in the balance, noonerec- . which tomes front statistic s tat here d,bythe Joint Reg, ognizes it,,fot the show must go on. . 4 , 127 a Snommonew=, ; Still another impediment to improvement of the gamein order to survive. Forevery agency, divi- information stems from the nature of bureaucracy and sion, and program, the apologiapro sua vita was cast its quest'for the path of least resistance, as suggested in in cost-benefit terms, and .where figureswere lacking, the foregoing paragraphs? and derivesnurture from it. they were dutifully conjured. zr. :Here I refer,, to the strangle-hold that PPB(planning- programing-budgeting) and its complements andcom- *to pervasive has been the influence of PPB that even' ponents, costabenefit analysis, and the like, have had in death its grip is strong. AlthJune 21, 1971, onthe very phifosophy_of governnfent. These "s'otthis7 memorandum from the- OMB official dem-, ticated* tools of management," introduced into% isein Washington, the hinterlandsare still busy adapt- Department of Defense by then Secretary Robert S. ing their procedures, and theycan be expected to con-, McNamara' and drveloped conceptually and opera: time until Ifileast the end of this century. Moreover, tionally by his assistant Charles J. Hitch,were credited and more important, PPB has refused to'clie 'without with having won the Battle of Britain and the* Waron issue. Its legacy lives on,.forexample, in-the form of the PotOmac; they, certainly contributed to the mythol: PIE (Planning-Implementation-EVatuation),a suspi- ogy of methodology that still pervades government. ciously similar permutation in which the "evaluation" of programs is in quantitative, "output," "production" But their triumph was mostly one of supersales- terms. Consequently, the data generatedare no differ- manship, for Senator Proxmire's committee laterdis- ed from and no better than those associated closed that the Pentagon, far from representing with PPB a What is important, with r soma° this factorprevent- , paragon, was, on the contrary, an example of 'gross ing; an eventual impro nientAinformation,is that . mismanagement and that the very system singled out; the 'need ultimatelto Isitigiy the OMB influences aitthe triumph of utilization of the "totalsystem pro- directly the kindf researchthat will:be encouraged; curement concept" was, instead,an egregious instance who will bee recipients of'grants to support the of spectacular cost overrun and productive short-fail. research at form research re alts, make 'take in Nonetheless, prograni budgeting fnanaged to survive order to be acceptable, and whether the research will and; indeed, flourishits tanner loyallytransplanted continue to receive financing. on civilian soil by Whiz 'Kids /who soon occupied inipiiitant posts in agencie4ndin peripheral "research Under the present circumstances the superprecious institutes." On August 25, 1965 PresidentLyndon B'. benefit-cost ratio, no matter hon. preposterous, will Johnsen proelaiined program budgeting(PPB) as the carry more weight than a thoughtful exposition of fad... pianitipg+, with wishfili. tors 'considered relevant or research conclusions that statementabout : this systems 'haVing."prOved its eliidg'the measuring stick. Duringthe past decades, as mvany titness.over in the, pefenie° pepartmint". ,,universities have become increasingly dependent'on antlikO* bringing to each departinent.andagency "the,- Federal funding, the acadernicommunity has hadto Most advanced- techniques ipf modern. busineinman"--;'.7 resort to survival tactics. They have-had to go through agernent:'.'+:113, he rhapsodized, #/ould motions of "producing" in the format ;i0tir choices" programs fn bring the, 'greatSociety., 'required While at-thesame time preServing the integrity all;the;:tieople: `.'.=..Ofr their research. Ifreconciliation is imposiible, they . . havi' cilief:JWO.choicestd cppitulateor tO-perish,'''' For example;-'hikw- -hest ,helpan because grantSmanshito now has been institutionalized underpriVileged child break out eff.pOvertY,and ;fas.indicative'Of prodttctivityin university. calculations, beCorite' a _prOduetive: citigen?, \..Should we '.t`o'o. Education- havingbgCotnehig business,it is su4. coneeptrate,on improving hiOducati4ki?Wifikidit the 'hilinageme t techniques that *werespun .71keiti tiii,iire:ta.likendihesame ftindSfof his food , or : ,-off by thettepaitroent of Defense. If scrupulositypre- I medial care? boei vent', a i.actilty MeMberfroni prOcklcirig as prescribed,. for., a job, or perhaps teiching the fundiritigeii%con turn toan ever-ready "research, ++ his mother thePrineiples ofniktritiotilpi is sOrrii-i' " institute": orip_rivatelthink tankcieagerto oblige withh , conihination*Optoaehes, most iffeetiVer . ,Such faith Wit:patently naive; PPBcould not, by its Another 'impediment to -jnprPrment-,in Federal very ,nature,"illuminate.; stieR ..'efiaicesi7:;.: it- i.- (information Is...AO:tteffed inthe hidden gay- 'aibOrtIplished was*to' cast gOVernihentProgram Plan... ,erinfient activities: These Vary,-from tifnetimeand riiitg into.Rrocritstiatf forma' so that' titerswere few `are subject to the stale and whimof a particular chitices that eould,macii:'EVerythingbecame part of istintion. Thelaceof theire?tistenceprevents;access,to,,.,, the'cyniCal numbers game; and' everyone had to pfaj,...nnfortlition andCoritirols'its,use.,'Wean knowtherm; -.I. 140- only by r signs and manifestations. Use of the 'clas70kpanel. Blacklisted through this procedure were seven "sifted" label is the first and most 'obvious of these": candidates whose professional credentials were impec- Standard practice sever since the rubber stamp carne cable but whose research results suggested that viewirig into being, this method of imposing secrecy has bet, of televised violence was not a catharsis for pent-up used to the point of overkill: A best seller on the sub- aggressions 'Commenting anthe appointment process, ject35 dobuments the ways in which "secret" and "top James J. Jenkins, chairman of the board of Scientific secret" have been used for varying purposes by succes- Affairs of the American Psychological Association, is sive *Administrations.,The dase'of Daniel Ellsberg and /quoted% as saying, "It looks likean exen2plar.of the old .the "Pentagon Papers highlights some of the prob- story of the 'regulatees' running the 'regulators' orlbe lems. Subsequent inqu into abuses of the "classi- fedi passing on the adequacy, of the eyesight of the man. fied" label were inteed to open old files and deaf assigned to guard the hencoop." One of the commit- them of items.no longer secret. Although considerable tee's own stiff member's, Douglas, A. Fuchs, senior declassification was the intent, the only apparent result research coordinator. for the. million-dollar project, has been refinement of an already overburdened . observed that "the scientific independence of this study structure of classifications. has obviously been subverted to. some kind of political more recent case involves the - current "energy considerat ion."39, crisis" and former President Nixon's message to Con- Silencing the critics can be accomplished in many gress on September 10, 1973, to urge that the Navy's ways, as the Center on Corporate Responsibility Elk HMS petroleum reserve in California be opened to learned. This small public interest group conducts the oil industry for development. Representative John.research and litigatioto improve business behavior in Moss's testimony, before the Senate Commerce Com-. such areas an environmental protection, minority hir- mittee criticized the Department of the Interior for its ing, and product safety, The Internal Revenue Service failure to-safeguard the public interest and showed it denied the organization tax-exempt status, a death' instead "to be an adjunct of industry in such -a manner blow since this depiives it of contributions from tax- as to constitute a public disgrace." Similarly, the Navy exempt foundations and donations by individuals. The and the Justice Department were efcoriated,The U.S. IRS action has been=interpretedtas a manifestation of naval commander who was deptity director. of naval discriminatorypractice,in that corporations are petroleum and oil shale reserves resigned his commis- allowed to treat their tremendous expenditures on lob- sion rather than support the administration's position. byingis tax-deductible busimts's ex s. ?American Lieu- tenant-Commander Kirby Brant is quotedas hay- tax and corporation laws havXin fact th-ented a danger- tng told a Congressional source, "I have midmy last ous imbalance between corporate and,public interests. lie 2'36 In-the harsh light that Watergate has shed upon the .Sporadic moments, of "operation candor" on the way, special interests ace able to influence part of the:former President did not offset the decep7--stons, Congress and the courts need trileexamine tax tions .and doubletalk of his loyal henchmen andAWhite,,-- and rules that apply so uriequally.to business or- House spOkesmen who luined Vali° ,be less reliable gdnizations seekingto further theirself interests and to sources dinformation thanusuallyUnreliable sources, groups seeking to further \social interests. 'like theunderground preSS.ecrecy keeps any !Amber -. . oboOridoggles going. T.12t.la bei-91 secrecy also serves asan, 'mrbifrary- devide to -keep: research results Futures.' Research-,-Prolegomena and inaccessible, -Perspectives The secret agency works in inscrutable ways through Forecasting of varioukkinds and innumerous guises xarions dhahnels. The iristitutionvof The Scientific constitutes a considerable category in the "research Adiiisory Committee is a typical example,37 with the roster" of the 1970's. A pirticularfavorite appears to . Surgeon General's ScientificAdVisory Committee on be sciena and technologyforecasting,,, Television and Social Behavioras a case in.point. This because theseare relativelyless complicated by bun*, panel was set up with the support of the National rust; -, sociaLand,political vagarieS. One Might expect, then; tute of MentaMalth to investigate the impact of tele:y ti at at barfing such developments as secret weapons, the vision violence on the behaviorof children. The broad-. .present state-of-the art vis-a-vis science and technol.- casting industry, was allowed -to review and veto the -ogy would be clearly accessible' for appraisal and the appointment of:potentially hostile critics,and, at the future' at least logically conceivable. Quite the con- same time, vtas given prominent representation on the trary. -We find-thatslielv,es Of books, specialized jour- . r 4ss, nals;and high-level conferences from Santa Monicato ..At meetings, accounts of science and technology StoCkhohn have ndtyet brought' us even tattle elemen- futures research take the form of elaborate paradigms tal stage of 114ving.a.drieved a usable definition, tosay and schematized displays, hiost of which are platitudes 'nothing of an tinderstanding,Of the,,dynamic for and cast in the future tense. Wallowing as Our generation directikcof-chinge. InvolVed here are the Complex still finds itself in the murky, unchartedcurrents of interrelations between science;technolOgy, and public assessment of technology,45 we just may be-unready to t policy, with-causality not a link in an endless chain but predict future trends. Indeed, Lanford46 finds thatwe rather appearing in ciicuar guise.41 have not yet even reached the point where classifica- The National Science Foundation undertook to de., tion and standardization of terms 'has been velop a set orindices, which it said "would reveal the accomplished. strengths-and weaknesses of sciencwand technol- ogy in terms of the capacity and performance of the Certainly, if the technologicalresponse to the cur- enterprise in contributing to national objectiiis."42 rent "energy crisis" can be taken as a clue to our capa- The aspirations were lofty; such indiCatorswere pre- bility to assess and predict in this one specific area-, then sumably to assist in improving the allocation andman- the demonstrated state-of-the-art is in a sad state of agement of resources for science and technology and disarray. In the United States the :Project Independ- "in guidinglithe.Nationt's research add development. ence 980," which former President Nixon defined as along paths most rewarding for our society."43 This "a series of plans and goali set to iqsure that by the end 'verbal macrame soon revealed itself to be patterned of this. decade Americans will nothave to rely onany after the scrimshaw that decorates proposals and other source of energy beyond our own," is based on wholly less noteworthy docurnents. The National Science improbable assumptions. The, givens that, taken Board labored ,and produced a catalogue ofcurrent for dantea cannot be gotten. We cannot by 1980 build research and development activities. Listedwere such more nuclear poWee plants than are already on the items as "Science and Engineering Personnel,"con- ;,drawing boards, produce any substantial amount of taining such unenlightenin'g entriesas "current pool," synthetic crude oil from coal Or oil shale,or expect sub- "enrollments and degree production," and "supplyand stantial development of solar and geothermalenergy. utilization."lbsteadof 'supplyingthe promised Moreover, there Still remain serious doubtsas to (I) the - "indicators," the report poured fortha delysof detail, safety of nuclear power reactors and (2) our capacity not,all of it partictilarly pertinentwon funds, Man- for storing and disposing of the vast amounts of fis-. power, and equipment. It then concluded that present sionable by-produCts of such operations: limitations, in data and methodology andthc..stur.rent paucity of necessary indices limited the conclusions Profesior DaiAd Inglis warns47 thatwe should not that could bqfdrawn concerning thequality and effec- 'put too much credence in the frequently citedargu- tiveness of An- scientific and technological effort!' ment that there have been no tcalamitous accidents Other researchers in the field' publish articleson associated with the 30 reactors which have been pros =: !equally dogged exercise 'that explore the obviousand ducing power for years. This, hesays, does not prove that they are safe, but only that "if we produce tepid conehisions. A typical article takesas a are to have a . null hypotheis the pfaposition that informationpro- thousand or so reactors in the future we willprobap cessing technology and applications are not 'advancing not have more tlian.a few calamitous accidentsper more rapidly than predicted by the forecasts, analyzes yeir. Engineering assessment of the precautionstaken a set of selected forecasts, and produces thelollowing is more reassuring than that, but the claim thatthe incestuous validation: nuclear plant's are safe is a matter of hope, not experi- ence." The problem of energyismultifaceted, with technology, economics, resource allocation, and social Although the data are insufficient to provide goals interacting and witkio consensus about any,of conclusive evidence, the results %uggesthat infor- these factors. The situation is so confused that former mation processing 'technology and applications President Nixon on January 19, 1974, felt ini#elledto are advancing More rapidly than predict the delivei a statement over the radioon the Of ity of forecasts. Various 19ng-range forecastsare in en- the ."crisis"itself.It is the view of a professor of nuclear eral agreement: Information processingwill be.of' engineering at MIT that part of the diffityltystems, increasing importance-for future forecasts bothas from-the Jack of a rational, long-range energy policy. 'a subject-and as a tool for processing data. (My e observes that "the Federal Government has devel- oped Bilk capability to d6elop data on-fuel-demand 01, . 130 - 1 l4 '- ,--- , and resources and has, been content with peiroleum- tice,and humanitarianismTare tottering.Inthe industry data."48. vacuum that has' been created by what can onltbe The ."technology forecasters" have shown. only attributed to technical lag in failing to assess this riti- plodding pedantry in their preoccupation with gredg- cal aspect of industrialized civilization, politics, propa- ing up definitions. Dodging real-life concerns, they ganda,. and pressure tactics have beeline the grime have been engrossed in pencil-and:paper games, the fOrcet; . , . r' intellectual. doodling dignified by names derived from If our forecasting techniques for technologyere so the Greek. Where knowledge was called,for, they have weak that the past few years' rediscovery ofe wheel given us what the French so aptly term fumisme.49 caught us unprepared, with the result th t foreign Their fanciful flight put us inthe twenty -first entury manufacturers enjoyed a bonanza and roaplanners before we learned to live. out the reality of the twen-'''had to improvise bicycle lanes on hiways and . tieth Note, for example, the contribution of "experts" bridges; that the revival of the long-defun t 1r-on-Horse in a Xerox survey .as a mode of transportation found th minimal ser- vicesof Amtrak totally. inadequatto meet the demand; that the triumph of diroraft, "tlfeKing,of the Ground Transportation: Tubes underground with Fleet," the 747 jumbo jet that caused airports to relo- propulsion by air or magnetos will take careof cate and rebuild their facilities alm-Ost overnight COgif many mass transportation needs inter- and intra- become the dinosaur of the:Jet Age because it requires city. In many cases high-speed above-thei-ground 40,000 gallons of fuel frevery hour if flies; that the key monorails or tubes will accomplish' the same symbols of- Amcricab affluence, Cadillac,and Contin- results. Computer control will virtually eliminate ental 6'a''i-s,-could become such a drag on the automobile the possibility of accidents. Hook-on conveyor :* market that manufacturers -have been forced to close lot type transportation will be used for individual down production and lay off hunareds of thousands of. vehicles and will operate at high speed in safety 4, ,..workers,, with the usual ripple effects on the -total and comfort by eliminating the decisions and dis- ':'-' \.employinenipietureifnot a glimmer of these impor., : A cretion now prevalent in personal driving. An '7' tant .occurrendessappeared in the crystal balls of the, individual will watch 3-D television or play card,sr...i.:: forecasters can we Count on them to foretell with while traveling aithigh speeds. Energy for thesei,i fir,.- , , .. ---i .;-, . -anr.degree of credibility the future of man's social .vehicles.and theircontrol devices will be throug...*'hi---.. : . ''' ':Worrr?- ..,., nuclear and magnetic means.as wellasolap:,,and: -A.- ': - . *- : 'fuel cells, all of which will operate with`treaiii,f, ., ,,:-..,,For art answer we must first look at the metpods and efficiency and the pdwer to repleniWthemselves.."-1/4 , tools in use, then at the tangible record, and finally at . _ .- . Included herein are many new devices.to operate the forecasters themselves:As to the trat, we findan .- - beneath the.sea. - -":"-'-...... "eclectic gallimaufry, borrowed fronva betefogeny of ,.. ,..,_4 disciplines and .poSsessing,,none of itsown.Conse; Air Transportation: We will be sendingInaterial.70-..,i.. quentIy, anyone who cares'fodo,soCan professexpert- and people around the world strapped into del., Pi - vices like space ships which will be sitnilatbronr:.., -;ness . Not surprisingly, since systems analysis is thsTre- - f-do:minant paradigmof Otirlechnocratic era, we find present guided missiles and rockets but on atuge, . z. '.4.-.-,lhesystems approach," noyiappear{ng in theluture scale and with much more sophisticated contwls. For short jaunts a magnet-controlledg-virrinus.4_ __A petfect, prominently in vogue. Think tanks, East and - Vest, and East-West interNationalresearchanstitutes, flying saucer type device will be prevag6 . ., ...9 as well as ever growing satellites, all purport to study, Energy, the very element that tnrns-OW to be crucial in forecast, and design the future, with this tecbiaue cur- this excursiorr into the never-never land, was dismissed iously and ubiquitously applicable in all thsIse discrete in cavalier fashion as though practically a given. Actu- usages.52 . ally., interdatiOnal events of the past few years have - lgbught the entire world to the realization that its . The systemsapproach attacks &future in Muchthe same way as it deali with the present. However; We find energy sophistication,is at low level, and that despite the same tools arirfe'chniques used now without the the great show, made of nuclear, solar, and even laser constraints imposed by real-life tests in the present-;` technolOgies, we are still vitally dependenton fossil i . . - Posseisedwith the:zeal to appear scientific, the futurol: fuels.. er-;.- . . . ,...,, - . s ogists havenratefully glomerated fragments of bor- . , With continuation of the energy crisis, many of the rowed methodiin an eclecticism that bespeaks that' , ...,. props of our social iiniverse--:prosperity,equaliticjus- lack of an intrinsic discipline. fypical ,are the_ ref- 4 . - . 131 erences made for the work of L. A. Zack h, an electron- partial Models are simply inadequate imita ons. There ics engineer who has been studying the use of linguistic is, moreover, the matter of predictive por. For all variables in place of or in addition to numerical varia- the well- developed tools of the economists tremend- bles in systerris._ analysis.53' Zadeh's notion of "fuzzy ous divergencies appear in the forecasts, In its 1973 sets" seems to have brought to fuzzy thinkinga respect- year-end analysis of business conditions,56the Morgan ability through language far in excess of its contribu- Guaranty Trust Company of New York warned that tion to conceptual clarification. What is especially sig- current forecasts Of economic develobients,in 1974 nificant in this, doration of Zadel is peculiar selectivz- "rest on much flimsier foundations than usual:" ity. The ftizzy algorithms are accepted and cited with Reviewing its previous year's performance, the report enthusiasm; studiously avoided, however,is the said, "What actually happened in 1973 bore little very basis for his contention that "tte conventional resemblance, to what had been anticipated. Most quantitative techniques are intrinsically unsuited for important of all, the optimivsm of forecasters that infla- dealinovith 'humanistic systems Or, for-that matter, tionary pressUres would remain reasonably moderate any system whose complexity is comp'able to 2bat of proved to have,been totally unfounded." 'humanistic systems." " The .annual meeting of the American Economic - Zadeh's entire approach rests on "the, principle of Association in December 1973 we described as an incOmpatibility," which appears nowhere in the cit- assembly "of a penitent and humble band of econo- ations of his futtirotogistic followers. The 'essehce of mists," penitent about their failute.toforecast the infla- this principle is that "as the-complexity of a system, tion that had enveloped the economy in 1973 and hum- increases, our ability tp make precise and yet signifi: ble about their ability to see what lies ahead in1974, cant statements abaft its behavior diminishes untila The .prevailing theme came firth unequivocally in the threshold is reached beyond -whieh precisioil and sig- opening remarks by' Walter.W. Heller, the associa- nificance (or relevance) become almost mutually tion's incoming president: "Economists are distinctly _exclusive characteristics. It'i's in this sense that precise in a period of re-examination. The energy crisis cauptin quantitative analyses of the behaviof-Ofihumanisiic -Us with our parameters down. The food crisis caught-, systems are not likely to 'have much. relei,ance to the us, too. This.was a year of infamy in inflation forecast- .teal-world societal, political, economic, and other ing. There are many things we realey'jtist don't' ' types of probleins which involvehuma'ns eithei'as indi- knoW."59 In his lecture to the Am ricieMathematical viduals or in groups." Society, Paul A. Samuelson, obel Laureate, rade Because, as with systems analysis of,current phe- this pithy comment, "Eethiofists Should& humble, f, nomena, data are the sine qua rion,,a.priiiie difficulty- for they have, a great dear to be humble about!"59 has been that of a data base. FOr this futurologists have Suffeiing fr?m 'all the.cirawbacks anddeficiencies relied heavilyi.on "social indicators," -vvhich was a presented in our earlier.1 discussion of information, legacy of the Johnson Administration and repre- social indicators as envisioned' by those who aspired to sented an attempt to duplicate in the social sphere that 'become social accountants are additionally burdened which had been accompyshed with respectto econom- by fuzzy conceptualization, faulty assumptions, and ics, viz., a system of indicators thatwould contribute to feeble credibility. The very notion of a-value-free sys- social accounting just economic indicatorsescribe tem of social statistics is patently impossible. 'In an the Behavior Of the economy:' Mtich has been written enlightening, and ,comparatively little-known clop.' about Toward A Socjal Report,54 which was intended nient,6° the.U.S. Department of Health, Education and to lead to a regular social report on the Nation similar Welfare acknowledged this, impossibility, but by that', to' the Annual Report of the Council of Economic 'time the movement had takenon a dynemic of its own Advisers. Although its concept aknesseslat outc and has iubseqUentlytone into business for itself, kith Weighed, its strengths, 'the rep remains a kind of' -foundation grants, governnient projects, and the u landmark and has served as asgringboard for much propulsion Mechanism at work. Along with-gkintin more ethe same, and for critical analysis. out the inadequacies 'atid 'inappropriateness of social indicators as a. device to accomplish the purposes set One important basis for c,riticism ould 4 for them, the report offers-some interesting Adeats: notion of emulating the economy: 13Oppe53 reminds that the analogy between the two kindsf eports was The very -labeling of data as "social indicators," misleading in that the economy co raw, on 'a 'with the nbrmative. implicitions which-- labeling, 9 genuine, full-scale model provided such carries, may _Bel misleading in its implications.,- Model of the social system exists, andthe Countless Indeed, the omission of items which Cannot be n 132, / measured is itself a .major biatoften the most other is systems analysis." Such is the terrible-state of Important facts about social Condition are quali- the fut u ri tiles. tative, derivative, orinteractiv'e this ,paper with its conclusion, it is One might also add, with an,pmen to the above, that onlybegunonly right that I conclude with its beginning..I said then - not isolated facts but issues in their complexity might that given the present state-of-the-art of futures be more meaningful as indicators than mere countable research, the Classic example of the Greek sibyls, who dribsand drabs. But .because ideas, much like spurious produced deliberate doubletalk, may be the wisest, figures, become legitimated by reference and,repeti= safest, and most desirable in,the final analysis. if ac- tion, the notion of social indicators has managed to curacy is a criterion for prediction, then who the futur- attain such an aura of respectability that even Daniel ologist is, what he stands for, and what his valued are Bel1,62- no neophyte in these matters, makes wishful. come crucial. Intringit in the matter of being light it remarks about their possible efficacy in the context of the now- familiar and generallecognized element of his forecasting. the self-fulfilling propensity. But them is moue. Under Inevitably, considetation of criteria for "good" the influence of B. F. Skinner, pshologiits are flOck- futures research brings us to an assessment of the futu-. inbacicward, like lemmings to he mot° the behav- rol °gists themselves, Who are they? What are tt.ffir_cr-eiorism of the first quarter of this century. Ignoting all dentials and claims to credibility? Here, oddly enough, the moral and ethical implications and cynically con- we can, find few definitive answers and instead must triving an itgument dawn version of a "hu- depend on observation. As we t wed-earlier, futurol- manistic" basis, Skinner is the leader of a new move- ogy as we see it is no "discipline' ;but an agglomeration ment callingforthedevelopmtnt of .'asocial of derived activities, including anything from mathe- technology. I. ' matics to public relations. A gravid "Encyclopedikof What- we need is a technology of behavior. We the Future"61, has. a roster, we are -informed in the could solve our preitlems quickly enough if we advance publicity, of some 65 "eminent authorities" could adjust the growth of the world's population alitiady committed to contribute and 45 more to come. as precisely as we adjust thetiurse of a spaceship, Their articles will appear thematically infive volumes or improve agriculture and industry with Some of titled, "Politics and Economic§A.Science and Tech- the confidence, with which we accelerate high- ""tnology," "Society," "The Individual," and "The Arts energy patticles,--di move toward a peaceful world and Leisure." "Members, of the Hudson Institute in with something like the steady progress with Paris, the European- office of the, internationally. which physics has approached absolute zero (even known `think tank' headed by the economist,Edmund dough both remain presumably out ofVfeach).64. Stillman,chose`the list of authori and their topics and will provide intensive editorial direction." Experimention in behavior modifitationitagoing Perhaps herein lies the clue to the identity of on in unwonted places. Platt tells of progra in his4._ fututologiStsthey are ,people selected by Herman laboratories' at Michigan es Others are displaying their, Kahn and his cohorts as authorities id set forth, in arti- own research results on this latter-day conditioning of cles favored with Hudson Institute's on brand of responses, all inpursuit of riew "scientific" dimensions "intensive editoiialirection," their thinking about the -and in violation of what surely would be ethical stan- unthinkable aid perhaps the unthought of in their dards of the professionif any manage to survive. Nor fields. But this Would account for only the future have sociojogistg stood firm as a bastilleiii defense of experts on the future:Of the present experts on the 'humanism. Instead, displaying -a vide Mecum that futureAtan be said that their expertness is so likely to indicates the insidious grasp, of the dominant para- be positively correlated with distance in time and space sociologisttare beingexhorted66 to "revitalize from the here andnow that the:y re%ind one of the their discipline" by "eroIgfertilization" .with "engi- character on Ko-Ko's famous "liuleji,St"-'=tbe person neering, archikecture, systenti sciences, and experi-,,,, who had a predilection for "allnines but this and mental psiehologr where social technology is being ev'ry country but his own," With systems analysis the developed;An impassioned poleynic.castigates sociol- prime stock -in -trade of these adventurers into tfiel',ogy for being an "unexciting discipline." Sociology is unknown, we mightaha re the further deprofessionaliz- urged to recognizeIne rich.field of information being ing note offered by an aerospace-engineer: "There are produced by experimental.13Sychology." {This-turns two occupations," he said, "for which preiious pxperi- out to be.0discoVery.of rats, rodents, and.our winged ence is not 'necessary. One is stieetwalkitivand the friends, itiFpigeons.) .133 6 But also, and more ominously, thereare emerging desirablewill occur. And lest there beany obstacle7 "external reinfweement.contingencies".orsocial inter- there is also a prescribed Guarantor Of Decisions;"a vention techniques, otherwise kno\Vnas "reinforcers," superordinate authority," which make the future, 4 that can virtually assure that a.future1-2once having to order and, perhaps by nomere coincidence, the futu- been established as feasible and, by some calculus, rologist right. V is 11. 4 fb. k q O !g' . v. : 1' ), Ifs 4444'0 a 4' ; a 1* V- 1 - FOOtNOTES , .. A ... Edward Hallett Cart, 'What Is History. (Nev:, York: Knopf, " A. Ross Eckler, "Some Commetivizederal Statistics" 1%2), P. 9. (Report of ITe President's Commission on FederalStatisticsn Vol. , . 2 Osviald Spengler, The Decline of the W 1, Vol. 11 (New York: 1), The American Statistician (April 1972), p. 13. Knopf. 1929)4p. 506-507. _ IS Anthony.Downs, "&mments on Urban ReneWal Programs," 1 Arnold J. Toynbee, Civilization onTrial (London:Oxford Uni- ' in Robert Dorfman (ed.), Measuring Benefits of Government Invest; ve ity Press, t946), p. 14, menu (Washington, 1:),C.: The Brookings Institution,- 1965), pp. 342;351. , r . , . . . 4 P. A. SOrokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics (Boston: Porter . . 19 ProfessorLeonardMerewitz examples Sargent Publishers, 1057), pr6-0-401.'filis is a condensation of the cited. `these to , distillation from Sorokin's four larger volumes, Social and Cultural demonstrate a similar point in a recent report. Dynamics (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Bedmenster Press). Their con- ' 2° For this point loam indebted, to Jack N. Schuman. I tents were familiar to Sorokin's Harvard and Radcliffe classes in ' , social and cultural dynamics during the 1930's. 21 'Report on the Regulation of Cyclamate Sweeteners," U.S. House of Representatives, Intergovernmental Relations Subcom- 5 I-krman Kahn and Anthony J. Weiner, "Thr Next Thirty-Three mittee of the Committee on Government Operations, Washington, Years: A Framework for Speculation, Daedalus, Vol. 96, No. 3 D.C.:(October 1970). ce --"(Summer 1967), pp. 705 -733. 22 Robert J. Bazell, "Cyclamates: House Report,Sharges Admi- 6 Carr.-op. cit., p. 10. nistrative Alchemy at HEW," Science, Vol. 170 (October 23,1970), ' Song in George Gershwin's Porgy and Bess. .:.1, pp. 419-4 0. ,. * Ida R. Hoos, 'Information Systems -and Public Planning," 23'William H. Starbuck, "Information Systems for Organizations Management Science (Application Series), Vol. 17, No. 10 (June of the Future," Preprint Series of the Internional Institute of Man- 1971), Pp. B-658 -67 i. . agement, I /73-53, Berlin (October 1973), pp. 5-6. , . *' 9 "Defense Intelligence Organization Criticized," Aviation Week 24 lifornia Criminal Justice Information System, discussed in & Space Technology (August 3,1970), p. 17: "Washington. Compet- Ida R.ops, Sylkins Analysis in Public Policy: A Critique (Berke- ing interservice intelligence activities are collecting and processing so ley, fornia: University &California Press, 1972 and 1973), p. much information,it is difficult to find out what is import.," 216. \ according to Gilbert W., Fitzhugh, chairman of the Blue-Ribbon 25 "Violent Crinie,,UM%,for 9'Months," The New York Times Defense Panel." . . 4 (December 18: N173). 10 A case in point is the NIH program on alcoholism, which 26- Song, "When A Felon's Not Engaged," in Gilbert & Sullivan's started Out commendably enough with consortia oktealth services Pirates of Penzance. approaching the problem as a complex of physical, ilsychological, and social maladjustments. With the allocation of a contract to a 27 "Police Aide Seek New Criminal Era," The New York Tintes cofporatioit to devise a "management inifirmation system," the (October 27, 1973)." . whole endeavot deteriorated into a data-handling exercise:Ironi- 28Alvin Shuster, "Troops Back atileathrpw Amid Fear of Missile cally, since the patients are "captive," i.e., referred to treatment by -Raid," The New York Times (January 7, 1974). police and courts, they represent only the to:sliest socioeconomic strata. The "information" they yield is mostly redundant, extremely 29 William E. Farrell, "Cities Ask Funds, Assailing Census," The litilled,and virtually useless as an index to alcoholism, which-still New York Times (December 9, 1973)., remains i serious and persistent ptiblem. A proper "information 3° Peter Kihss, -"Errors are.Found in Relief Cut-off," The New system" would have included the medical data of,private practition- York Times (September 4, 473), ers, brit their flies would not fit the pigeonholes and punch cards of . the system devised by the "inforination experts," because doctors are 31 Belding )1. Scribner, Editorial, The Journal of the American . likely to record the diagnosis as "cirrhosis of the liver "or some such Medical Asioion (December 1973), related disease, 32 Geoffrey H, kaole,-How Full .is Full F.mplpionent? Ameriein ii Federal Statistics, Report ofthe'resident's-Commission, Vols. Enterprise ,Institute for Public Policy Reseirch (August,1973), I and 11 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. 'Government Printing Office, . `=9'77 "Cost of Li g Panel Illegally Withheld Data," Los Angeles 1971): N..- . Times (January 12, 741, )12 /41., Vol4Pri. 4546, : % di. .31 President -Lynda106iison, "Message to Congress on the' > 13 William irtiskal, ",'The Cointnitteeion National Statistics," QuaiitYof "rkine can ve ent" (March 17 1967) -Science, Vol. 180 (June 22, 973); pp. 1256 "1258. 3i David Ise, The Politics Oaiing....Go,vernment Decejil n, .14 Edgar S,,Dunn, Jr., The Idea of a National Data Center and SeFrecy, & PoWer, (New ',fork: Randoin.HOttie;117),, .4. . . ,. ,. - .,. the Issue of Personal Privacy," The American Statistician, Vol. XXI. 36 Jack Nelson, "Navy OffiCer Quits Over'Elli,Hills Oil Issue,"Los; - (February 1967), pp..2I -27. Angelis Times (Jailuary:l 2, 1974), _ Federal Statistics, op. cit., Vol. t, p. 107. "-Vaughn' Blankenship, "Scientific AdVisiory Committee and . . ' 14 Ibid.,. t(18. Decision-Making in NASALf'fhe. Space Science Prograni," and , : 135 t' . , . . "Scientists,Re5arch, and Policy-Making; The Role of 'Scientific i 'illda R. Hoos, op. cit.. Chap. 8, pg,235k. - Advisory Committees," Space Sciences Ilboratory, University of . California, Berkeley, Internal WOricing Papers, Nos, 45 and 56, 5) L. A. Zaldeh, "Outline of a New Aiproialt to the Analysis of - respectively (January 1967). Complex Systems and Decision Processes," Memorandum No.. ERL-M342; Ele.ctronics Research Labotatory,College of fnkieer- 38 Philip M. Boffey ancl.John Walsh, "Stuck, of TV Violence: ing, University of California, Berkeley (July 24,19725, esp. 2-3. Seven Top Researcherg Blackballed from the Pane Science. Vol. 168 (May 22, 1970), pis. 951-952. 54 U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, To.war(A Social Report (Washington, D.C-:: U.S. Government Printing . )9 Ibid., p. 949. ' Office, 1969). t 4° "Silencing the Critics,"-,Editorial, The New York Times (Jibe 55 Frank J. Popper, "The Social Meaning of Social Accounting," 19, 1973). \s Polity. Vol. 4, No. I (Autumn 1971), pp. 76-89. o "41 Herbert 'Holloman, "The Costs and Challenges of Technoloip-, 56 Lednard Sloaner"High Risk is Seen in '74 Forecasts,',The New , cal.Change," Looking Ahead. National Planning Asociation..41. York Times (December 26, 1973). 21, No. 5, (September 1973) p. 57 Leonard Silk, "The Penitent Seers," The New YorkTirries(Jan- 42,National Science Board,National Science Foundation, Science uary 2, 1974). Indicators 102. Report of tte Nateppal Science Board (Washing- .... tdn. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1973). I55 Walter W. Heller, PreSidefitial Address, American Etonomic° 1$-ssociation annual convention, New York SDecember 28, 1973). 43 Letter of transmittal, January 3141/4197.3. , - -s° Paul A. Samuelson; "The,Id and the New in Mathematical " Eugene M. Gra bbe and Donald L. Py ke, "An Evaluation ot the Econoinics," Josiah Willard Gis Lecture, American Mathemati- orecasting of Information Processing Technology and Applica- cal Society annual meetings, Sa Francisco (January 15, 1974). tions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change: Vol. 4 (1972), p. 6° U.S.Depart4entof Health, Educatiod and Welfare, A Report on Measurement and theRuality of Life and The Implications for 45 Harold `Green, "Tenology Assessment and Democracy: Government Action of "The Limits of Growth." HEW publication Uneasy Bedfellows." Bus,ss and Society Review/ Innovation. No. (January 1973). ...., 5 (Spring 1971). pps.91- . 61 Ibid.. p. 7. " H. W. Lanford,"The Technological Foreasting Jungte," Te;h- nalogical Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 4, No. 2 (1972), no. 62 Daniel Bell, The Coming of Post - Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting (1New York: Basic Itoolis, 1973), pp. 326, 329. 207-22 ° 'r 63 Nan Rdbertson "Encyclopedia Will Predict the Future," The 47 David Rittenhouke Ides, Letters to Editor. The New Yprk -At Times. December 22, 1973. New York Times (December 4, 1973). e a David J. Rose, "Energy Polioy, in the U.S.," Scientific American 64 B. F. Skater, Beyond.Freedam ,and Dignity (New York: (January 1974), p. 20. Knopf; 1971), p. 5. '- . Ss John` Platt, "Social Traps," American Psychologist(August 4° Roughly translated as esmoke.----i- ' 1973)2App. 641-6514 __ 50 Gerald Al Milligan, "Life May BetOme Too Eas .a The F1 ist (April) 969).. 66 Donald E. Taiter, "Heeding Skinner's Call: Toward the Devel- . opment of a Soda! Technology,' -The American Sociologist. Vol. 8, T. S. 'Kuhn, The Nature of the Scientific Revolution, 2nd ed. No. 4 (November 1973), pp..1,40. (Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press, 1970). , . rige , - C 7 148 lak Chapter 12 rorecastingWhen The Future Is Known: The Case of The Soviet Union c a Wayne I. Boucher Doctrinal Background Since fhe historical appearance of the capitalistic Most of us know Communism in any of several mode of production, the appropriation by soc'hty forms: as an overarching field of study ("scientific of all means of, production his often been socialism"); as a theory of histolyand of social change dreamed of, more or less yaguely, by individuals, ("historical materialism"); as a theory of reality and of as well as by sects, as the id al of the future. But it cognition ("dialectical materialisni");as a global politi- could becom e, could bec e ahistorical cal movement ( "the socialist revolution"); as a doctrine necessity, only when the actual conditions for its fon the forceful transforthation of precapitalist and realization were there.... This point is now capitaliststatesintosocialiststales( "Marxism- reached.2. -Leninism". or similar phrases); as a guide to revolution- ary strategy and tactics ("the party line"); as a bleeprint Similarly, the draft of the' Program presented 'by of specific achievement in avowedly Communist coun- Khrushchev at the 22nd Congress of the Soviet Com- tries (4the plan7); and asa unique configuration of munist Party in 1961 declared: "The world capitalist personalities and institutions that embody, express, system on-the whole is ripe for the social revolution of interpret, and control these various kinds of thought or the proletariat."3 - .- action ("the soviets," '"the party," "the party leader- We might observe in passing that the fact that this ship," and so on). These and still other guises that statement refer's to the same "objective conditions",de- could be mentioned differ from each other in impor-* scribed by Engels almost, a century before, and yet is tant ways, andnone by itself actually defines "Comrriu- weaker, would not be taken bya Communist as an nism";' but they are all alike in at least one essential indication that it was at all suspect. Apart fr doc, respect: each rests upon a claim to the same special and trine, there is a long traditionamongComniu Stthat infallible-knowledge of the future. the timing of a revolution cannot be fqwcastedeven r This body of knowledge Is special because it is limit- though the event itself is inevitable. Thus Leninwrote ed, net so much in scope as in time. That is, in subject iiLearly 1917 that "revolutipns...for which the date ranges as widely as to include some yery large features and the chances of success can be told in advance,nev- er happen,"4 and in 1918 he ridiculed a prediction that ,of the future development of all socio-ecomic sys- tems in the,world, while inlime it moves ou ward only '-'"the imperialist system" (i.e., themost advanced capi-, to that vague Kit nevempo remote point at w ch these talist countries) would begin to collapse later thatyear: systems will have achieved full classlessness otta4' This formulation is... childishlinaccurate, tatorshiWthe proletariat," sans part ns state. e despite the scientific pretensions. Itnatural for knowledgeliInfallible because., in t first instance, it children to understand science toe n that it can is "scientific" (i.e., it is said to follow from a thorough ... determine in what year,'Vring, su er, autumn 'analysis of conditions whichare objectively rooted in 'and winter, the,"collapse must begtn." These arb concrete e perie.nee) and, second, it is impossible to absurd efforts to ascertain.what cannot 'beascer- 'show that t is not scientifici.e., the rules of analysis tained.' No serious politidian will ever say when and discourse are apparently that tradictdry this or that collapse ofa "system" 'must begin."5 results are inadmissible).' a A second kind of indisputable knowledge about tiie A -Jew. examples will .illustr"ate the pecieS future describes m6thods that must andill be used in foreknowledge falling in this category. st, there are the achievement,of Communism. For example, the statements of opportunities that can nd will be /taken. notion was long prevalent (anti may still be) thltwar This Engels writes in t882: 'between the Communist and non-Communiststates is . , ,.... L. 4 137 - 140 inevitable, and41 is still asserted that the transition: It is now becoming more and more clear that the kOrn Capitalism to socialism can occur "only" through end of the sway of capiCalismis drawing near... revolution.6 _ and that capitalism is a system that has outlived its A` thirdkind Of knowledge -involves tactics age and is bbund to perish. The future is ours!The specifically, the conditions for their success. In the 'future is for Marxism-Leninism! The future is for Strongest statement of its type, Lenin once Wrote: communism!" "Nothing but an,Aiective account of the sum total Of From time totime, one not only hears about the cer- all the mutual relationships of all the classes of a given tainty of the event, but -also is given an idea of when it societywithout., exception, and consequently an will occur. l'hus, in 1952 G. V. KOzlov wrote that "the. ;account of the objective state of development of this second half of the 40th ,century will produce the society as well as an accountokhe mutual relationship complete victory of communism throughout the entire between it and other societies, can serve as the basis for world. "12 The draftProgram of the 22nd Soviet Party the current tactics of the class that farms the van- _Congress in, 1961 was extremely vague about the guard."' This call for perfect informationwas viewed advent,of communism the world,at large ("sooner- by Lenin as a strict inference from "the general princi: or later"), butrather spedific for the Soviet Union; pies, of [Marx's] materialist-dialectical outlook." The . fact that Communists also believe that suchfull knowl- . .The present genera on of Soviet people shall live edge is not attainable would make this statement look under CommuthTITicialistri has trimphdd in foolish indeed were it not at leaSt partially offset by two, the Soviet Unio completely and finally. \ithin otheriacts: first, the vanguard" class (i.e., the proleta- two decades t Communist society Will on the riat) has its own Vangtiard, known as the party; and, ficdebe buil in the U.S,S.R.13 second, the party believes that it cannot err if it holds Anevitalge v ctory on a national or glObal scale fast toMarxism-Leninism. All future decisions, there- ,.carries with iobviously, A number of ofr profound C. 'fore, will be correct, provided only That they are based 'changes that , n also be foreseen witabsolute cer- on Se then-current vefsion of thismhilosophy. This tainty. The mg °significant ofthese, Om a doctiinal idea wasinost blat;Intri-stated in the notorious History: point of vie vi are the many rewards to the individuals' of the CPSU (Short Course): ,whoare,thertaliappens. All of these rewards flow The power of the Mai:kW-Leninist theory lies in from the fact-that the exploitation of man by man Witt the fact that it'enablesbAl'arty to find the right have ceased; the principle, "frcitn each according to his, orientation in any situations to understand the ability, to eacitaccording to his needsrwill have come inner connectian Of current events, to foresee their into force. No'exhaustive listing of tfie tangible conse- -,---N4course and. to-perceive not only how ,abd in what --)quencest.if this development hasever been attempted,. direction they are developing in the present, but 1. of course. But some4ecifics gave been enunciated. . how and in what direction they are bound to For example, in December 1964, the entire issue of develop in the future (YSSR: Soviet Life. Today (a Magazine later renamed 4,-. 4.4 Soviet Life). was devoted to answering, questions fre-. goThe final kind of knowledge of the, futurebeStocled, quentlyasked by Americans about Communism. : by the various forms' of Communism is the most pared by a team.of experts under theeditorship of S. G. i important of all: definite, assurance of how the foresee- Strumilin, the.replies are not only authbfitative, but ' able ftiture will turn out. Said Lenin at a Soviet Con- candid and off& highly eloquent, From ihejn.wecan_ gress in 1921; "The new society . inevitable. Early glean many insights into'the future that Communism or late; twenty years earlier or twenty.years later; it will predicts for individual citizens. Among the certitudes vocorne."9*The idea has been repeated so often tht it is a) are the.followibg, all of.vhicliare quoted (thenuMbers commonplace, sometimes stated- matter-of-factly: in brackets identify the pages): - - , .. ...the question arises: Can Communist society.. An abundance of:Eril the good things of life will be * be brought about? Our answer is "yes." About this free and at everyone's disposal [R Trade, money - the whole theory Of Marxism-Leninism offers a and credit will gradually disappear [5--61; no money scientific explanation yiat,leaves no' room fdr Will be used [12]. Nothing.wilI limit the,needs.of the doubt. It.further explains-that .as the ultimate individual. except his owioodsense and moral result of the class struggle of mankind, such a values; his Self-respecton$Ibis re4ect for the inter- society will inevitably be brought abOne..1.9. estsand needs of the other 'members of soCie1ya124 . , sometimes exutierantly: -, Full 'social, economic and cultural equality-of all : r 138 *V members of society, i.e.,:.. the complete absence sive and very thorough...training, the future citi- Of classes and social grouping [6]. [A] woman will . zen .. be equipped to move fro pt one occupa- be... independent in every respect,tile equal of her tion to another when he so chooses- r56]. -; husband where 'her opportunities for creative work are concerned [29]. -r-The _need for any kind of coercive laws wil 4..,3 disappear, as well as the 'need for maintaining- the Differences will be eradicated between city and state apparatui. It will be replaced by the publicself- village, between manual and mental work [6]: government of free people, and the laws will turn .- Science will no longer be harnessed, to military into customs and habits that will have become the, standards of communist morality.... Disputes :Science and production will really be joined in pursuit of their common goalthe sans- add disagreements between people or° conflicts faction of the continuously growing requirements of befween society and Certain individuals, .. will be the people. New scientific findings and inventions resolved purely by persuasion [13]. The courts, the will be almost immeihatelx applied in industry and police, the organs of state sectirity'and the army... agriculture, while a grateful population will pay trib- or ,will disappear completely [4]. [While] theremill. . ute to the researchers and innovators responsible be occasional breaches of the rules of society... [7-n they will be individual morallapses of no great social importance. ?gaily of the crimes so common today will be unknown... accounting:economic calculations, planning, . Other crimes willhe incon- ceivable to people with the ethical concepts of the statistics add economic efficiency will be rated in future, or will simply be senseless. kind and in units of contributed labor, i.e., working Personal morality will become the ac. ceptedregulatorofsocial time [6]. The gauge of people's- needs will be pro- relations'and will take over the job now done by law vided by statistics of consumption andhe sum total and administiativenoercion [30]. Conflicts will be of individual orders [12]. AIr settled with dignity and kindliness. [And] a growing --Planning will become more complicated. [But] the role will be played by friends and comrades by the sorting and.summarizing of the millions,of orders- collective as the educator of the citizenry1s the "de- ,from consumers, the choiee,oT the best technological liverer" of man from his personal imperfections [2ii]. methods, the most efficient allocation ofiresources,0 The future family will lose its present economic the deployment of plants, the balahced devel- -importance. [Love,] mutual respect and spiritual' opment and coordination of industries; the drafting kinship ...will be the only foundation for the fain- of the entire systerri of indices, operative andltatisti- ily....People will marry only for love: [But not all cal calculation and control, etc., will all be done by marriages willlast, ancj there be]. greater cybernetic computers and 'information machines freedom .to invalidate marriages [29]. Society will manne(,byan army of highly skilled personnel [12]. tuldpubtedly take a greater part in-supporting and . . The special group of people professionally engaged bringing up thevpunger generation Than it does in the management,of public affairs will disappear. today [but parents will not] renounce the joy of com- Each individual will devote some part of his time to munirtg with their children [or] give up their role of civic work (4]. initial mentors [29]. I` -.,@. Stateactivity"': ..willose its political charicter, . [There] will still be bodies in charge of the national Man's hunger' for knowledge and his eagerness to mister new skills will.bcas spontaneousanchatural . econoy_o . ... SuLthese will-not be state bodies-since their activity a ed for ,Work,.rest or sleep: Every man will, will be determined exclusively by economic, scien- haveTtibitlftwortunities to'clevelop and use his tific, and other such considerations, not by political abilities. Cominunism, Will-it last make itPossittle 'Considerations [4]. for the human personality tollower113]... cr. . --Religious conceptions of lifeand nature; amen and Y.-:-There will be far Are leisure time... Pe6ple will have to give less and less of their time to prod: his place,ole, and.purpok,11Well as other supersti: tions and prejudices: will disappear.,... All=this uctionfour,-three, two, or perhaps less hours [13]. . will replaced by a sober scientific and materialist Work .. willbepurelyvoluntary,,'nothing' view of life. There will be onl Celaith iri commu- compulsory about it .[13]. No one, [moreover, alin man, inis energy, his a or, in be. chained to a single Z... reen- the 'unlimited creative potentialities of his free spirit, . r. ...I .-439 1.5 in his intelligence_ armed with the all-conquering Twentieth-Century Attitudes force of knowledge [29]. , The first -and most important point that emerges Communism will do away with doss, natiopa, from this literature is also the most obvious one: The religious and racial antagonism.... Such vices as role of forecasting and the valueof any particular fore- greed, cupidity, hypocrisy, egotism, brutality, and cast is determined by the larger theoretical context pro- licentiousness' will be gone. But this does not imply vided by doctrineincluding specifically (but by no . that .. . tastes and views will not differ [or that] means exclusively) what the doctrine proclaims as communist society will.. !be static'[30]. There will inevitable in the futtire.17 This seemingly innocuous never be an end to pioneering thought and action observation has exceedingly wide-ranging implica- [51].. No mat*,how harmonious and free we tions.For example,itmeansthatnormative. .imagine our fully,ponstructed communist society to forecasting, if possible at all, is possible only in the be, history will undOubtedly confront its people wit)? :short term and only insofar as it answers the question, . new prOhlems. This is the guarantee that mankind "What might-be the next best step'or tivo in the inexor- , will never be deprived Of the fascination of exploring the, unknown, of the joy of creation, the thrilWf able march toward Communism?"-All the rest must be. purely exploratory, since the ultimate outcome is not struggle [sq. only known;but is a function of past and present farces In short:, when 'Communismisachieved, "the: whichjne,their essential thrust, cannot be diverted.18 struggle, for individual existence Oisppears. .Thb whole sphere of'the conditions of life which erivilson _.Farmore noteworthy, hoAver,isthatthe man, and which have hitherto uled man, now copes subordihation of forecasting tO doctrine carries With it under the dominion.and contro the- consequence that forecasters must be sUbsen;ient f man, who for. the , first time becomes the real;.co s lord of1nature to the interpreters of doctrine, principally the party because he has now become master ofi ownsocial apparatus and, within it, the _party leadership.*The: organization.. The;extnaneouS objective forces importance of this relationship is at leait two-fold. that have hitherto governed history pass under the wn- 'First, the party is committedko its ownpastas a major trol of man himself. [4nd] man himself, more and guide to future pohcw thus, "seientific",foritisting, more consciously, [will] make his own history." ,ei while certainly not "deprived of the opportunity to mak a substantial positive and iindependentcontribu- These universal propositions about opportuniti,, techniques, tactics, and outcomes comprise a literally tion to the advanarment of Communism, must cdn- tend ith both the competitionand the threat posed,by oreseeable future that is; in its own way, as chiliastic,, comprehensive, and redemptive as any ever.cookeciup part" higtoty. Second, because the doctrine espoiiged . by a St. Augustine or a New Utopian.15 Nonbelievers by the party is so thoroughly" futureg-oriented; the will find it equally asdubious or absurd, though for our party cannot avoid sanctioning the .praCtiee of fore- '- purposes that fdct is irrelevant. Nor doesit matter that casting, nor indeed would it want to; though fbrecas- this image of the future is accepted as true by millions ters are automaticallut bn notice that the sanction. of persons in the socialist countries and elsewhere. can be limitedior ex t.ded at the dictate tof the reii What is of interest here is that this future, augmented Let us examine tie oints a little more closely 4' by a pOlitical lore and fired in a crucible of awesome ex- In the Soviet yie, the party t*nues to ist perience. is shared as a starting asstrmptioniby"the spe- because it has passed the testOf re -world experience;,... tialists in foresting and planning in thesecotntries7 survival 'certifie!..sperettness, par icularly the correct-, and by theiemployers. Presumably;i.the 'conse- ness of tenets expressed by,the le der lip in the earliest/. . quences for th theory and practibe of forecasting, in days of revolutionary activity. Thus, the veryhistory --:---rall'Of its dimensions,. are-significant. With reference the party assumes a uniquestature ihelping to slut* 4 especially to forecasting efforts in the United States, current decisions, and outl oks. Indadathe,7 Where whatever visions that may given are certainly party tradition and the Marxist doc rine.tend to come, \ . not taken as final, we should e/ZPect to find that the .together atlhis point, the formering taken, in pit, Communists .entertainquite different preferences as the "objective'' expression of thlatter. Whilethe among techniquessandards of evaluation, percep- tradition cannot the sole influen e=4n policy after tionsof 'theoreticaldiffiOltieg,criteriaof all, mistakes have een made, as eIt suecessie pait# -', ' implementitibn, constraints ?n choice of subjects to be Thief hag eventually said about hpredecetssor or his forecasted, and so op. And this is indee the case, as we recently purge'dllgbciatesits rolis central. To some may see by examining some of th:literature on significant extent, it may even formalized, as a ---s orec tinglrom tire Soviet Union.16 number Of Western analysts have tried to -: .44i -*- 4 -- One Of the more ambitious attempts . was made by freedomwhich consists in Nathan Leites in a series of books acting in accord witIt'an` concerned withiden- understanding of this necessity, tifying and organizing all of-the rather than. being- inherited ideas,'about overwh d by it24is madefiossibie by the Party, broad political strategy that serveto inform the "spirit", which b ding in the development of doctrine is dos-, of theSoviet leadership and, thus, todetermine many of its attitudes and much of its behavior. est io such an understanding. Indeed, all those who do":"- These guiding notaccept the doctrine can only be "dragged alonk by ideas:"political" in both a philosophicaland an history. One implication of this view is that theparty-' instrumental sensecould be found, in Leites'sOpin- will accept a forecast about alivorable situationfor an ion, in the statements of the leadershipitself; though "enemy"- only if it can be sham that theenemy's not alivays explicitly expressed. In the aggregate,they choices leading to this situationare forced upon him by Zonstitute. what Leites calledthe "operational code" of "conditions." No lesi important is the implicationthat .the Bolshevik elite.19 Though this codehas limited the party looks with greatest favoron forecasts about value as a device for predicting.specific actions-ofthe Soviet. Union, Leites believed that it could actions that might be taken by the'regime whirl ishow, be used in on the basis of full 4nalYsis, that thee is only forecasting general patterns of development .one and the possible choice. %s Leites puts it, the elimination of motives thatmay be at play:20 In the present context; al- ternatives permits .the leadership to dispense with"tlie however, the code is worth reviewing for whatit wits us Nit' about poSsible party beliefs usual and perilotis operation of ascertaining whichis regarding forecasting per the only correct one and, which will lead se. Among the principal points in:Leites's discussion of to disaster (for all will, except the Oblxclortiet one)." Another "4'-this question are the folio-Wing four!, major, 'implication is that the pally is very much opposeeto I. There are no accidents. As Stalin put itin 193b, ..thet ractice,..'attributed -by the Bolsheviks to thenon- , "History never does anything of moment without some-:::- party intelligentsia, of "inventing," .whichLeiter de- . partidular ;necessity." Yet' evenon this basicissue, s6ribes'as the practice of "deciding,upon a course of there is an apparent contradiction; in Leites's words, . action originating in-one's thoughts rather_thap in the "According to one Bolshevik feeling,any given event is externalasititation." The thrust of this 'objectionis either' inevitable or impossible;,, according, to an against, old - fashioned ttopian socialism, butit no . opposed feeling, there aft a variety of posWitielfor -difinbt has a. current application for Soviet fOrecaste any given- situation.... The determinist tendency i's. in limiting' imaginative excursions, into the realm of . apt- to prevail withreSpea to the pakt in general;and to futuieS thamight themselves:be "invented. Certainly - the-future with regard to overall lines of development .no..suCh thinking has..as.yet, appeared frontwitWn this ', . and the actions Ofothers. The indeterminist. tendency. . grotipa fact,that shottld, of course, be taken-merely prevails ijth.reSpe4 yi"cletails of the future and,partict, . as an indication that the *.tight,,,of party tradition and ularlY,';i4-aqs 6f,*-43_d,tty itself." This wotifdappear to the strictures 0. doctrine arewill1hgly accepted by:these.' ,belonsiattitt..*ith the pO,int made eailiet;'-thatthe Jorecasiers.23- lealet...-and, Mori fundamental l-2114 -loqg-lastingthe - - ..4 ".....r.-g..\ '..; . - . - , 'outcome, the greaterlhe necessity;for the forecaster to ' 4.'4 we' have already seen, there, ismuch that is -a, opt an exploraiaty approacP4-Inany case, he piOb- . known and can be known about thefuture.At the same . abty,--timitle.coMMitied, in principle,to tte determi-' time, the, party. leadership has always maintainedthat Clisratlidide,33 ;_-.4.-..-..: - - , some aspects ofthe fOture are hot predictable.Earlier,-.,- for instance give indicated that the precise date of "-1.---tonti-01 of the ititure,at least inthe sense, Of.n. Ot: the ... oCcurrencebf a revolution falls in glis ,..beitigsurpmed by it, is crticial. Leites'SSmttementof this class. But Leiter point is as follows: "The alternative to controlling and others marshal a good deifof oidericithat hasthe . . . ,_ is 'being controlled. 'Being controlled bythe Party is effect of bowing that this isa relatively trivial exam ple, far also included ate at least the follOwing intensely preferred, being ,controlled by'history'is:,,,. stye ,,- kinds of PotintiallY very useful information: . ,accepted; and hieing controlled'-by enemies. dreaded. "' -.--,,, (a) the Forecasting can'',help provide ,measure ofeontrol,but rate perripo,), of progresktor of developmenttoward ultirnate Oiitcothes; (b) the i'Pecificpaths that will lead sO too canrati awareness of history ands knowledge:of ..1, do to woe Outcomes; (c) the4pecific steps that will be FOrecasters. must have bOkh, a factrine. et that Marks , _ taken on these paths; (d) the-type,number, and 'dura- a fundamedial difference between Soviet and Western , - . - tion-of the;setbackS, and obstacles forecasting. .,,,f ,-", ii, . that will.have to be-,, . ; , ,. - . .* a v e r c o rh e -. tn, taking. thete steps,.(e),the degree-of stipf.1/4 ,. 3.,- All 'actionsare "forced" by "objective port (nuitaie)-an4tht fifoll,..y..- - conditions," evrefiNhoseof:the party., But trot ./ anongigasaritsInd,rieNitit the program; (T) ^ , ..,':... . , -;;:.--"--- -,,-.. *. . ---.....- , -.e,--,,.. . ., :1 Or :., the extent to which the party itself will seize upon the succeed in dealing with ever more specific problems if opportunities opened by "objective conditions," and the.forecasters are not themselves partiCipants in the (g) the extent to which the goals sought by he party "`struggle." In a rithelrp ofound sense,se, if they are not . (the "subjective" aspect. of a political choice) will par of the solution, the are part of the problem. actually be attained (the "objective" aspect). If, given T. the Westerner who sees a particularly telling alI Qf these unknowables,'one senses a fundamental contradiction between the admission that objective similarity between the difficulties fabing forecasters in conditions are only partially predictable and ft-claim -,... the USSR and in, say) the-United States, he would be of,the party that its line is "correct," the answer would wrong. The similarity is only-sUpgrficial, as the U.S. appear to be that the two are compatiBle if the line ison., forecaster may readily determine for himself by substi- roughly the same level of generality as the conclusions, tuting "client" for "party" and trying to exptlin why he established beyond all doubt by the doctrine, or if the , faces difficulties comparable to these seven.-His an- line Can be deAuced irrefutablythat is, to the Sails...- s 11 surely differ from the one given by the tradi-a tion o arty and shared by the Soviet forecaster. Indian of the partyfrom these conclusions. Where these conditions4do not obtain, there shoUld be no line, In short, Itruns as follows: To grant these .because statesman, bureaucrat, and forecaster: alike unknOwables is not to renounce the belief-that the are back in the realm of "science," That is, the process world is fully intelligible; indeed, this remains a basic of graspipg the unpredictable is to be- viewed as conviction. But in the search for this intelligibility, one experimentaljust asthe whole effort of the Soviet must start somewhere. Nothingsignificant is given all Union itself used to be viewed. Recently, the Soviet. his- at once. Specifically, a science like historical material- torian Medvedev has reaffirmedthis answer by ism is no more gstablished in a twinklingan is a recounting how Lenin 'never tried to project some science like physics. At the beginning it may well be strictly defined line, the least deviation from which possible, however, to isolate basic concepts of lasting would be considered .a left'or 'right' opportunistic' value (e.g., the atom, the class) and to define general deviation"; in this regard, Medvedev also quotes with laws governing the system in question. To get to the approval H. G. Wells's comments after his meeting point where one knows not only the laws,.but also what with Lenin in 1920; Stalin and others have called the "zigzags," requires, in the first place; the accumulation and analysis of data Lenin...whose frankness must at times.leave his and the continued refinement of details of theory, disciples breathless, has recently stripped off the building altvays on what. is already known,As it was last pretense _that the Russian revolution is any- put in the 1930's: thing more than the inauguratiodWanage of lirn- , itless experimentation. "Those who arcenlaged in-:,,;, ?:::3:04x, [Because this theory.] is a science it does not and the formidable task.of overcoming capitalism," he cannot stand st111,but develops and perfects itself. has recently written,' "must be prepared to try Clearly; in its developinent it is bound to become. method after method untiltheyfind one which an- enriched by new experience and new knowledge, swers their purpose best."29 and,some of its propositions and conclusions are bounCl to change.26 Julian Huxley's observations following a visit to the USSR about a decade after Wells are especially worth . tn)the eye of history, the-needed theory has hardly, recalling: , 4 -1 begun to,be developed, especially in'the social sciences. r Russian affairs....have a political a'spect,andit ,,The wonder, then, is that so much has alrea4 !been a patriotic aspect, and an aspect of fanatical deyo- discoverednotthatso muchispsently tion which may pernaps'be called religiaul. But tinpredictible.27"' under one aspect, and drat perhaps in the Long run At (Yes,§umi time, however,4myst be remembered the most important, Ruisia remains' a scientific that a deVelopnienf is produced by t 5-elation of experiment, and the only one ever yet carried out <. 4:order an-clihat ihCaSes'like the'seve ntioned, the iii such a field and on such a scale. .^.,.actual.ttsiatioiOlps can often be.d1^ fed-only in the If the visitor to Russia is to appreciate the -al pha'ses,,,, of 'the n ircuinstances, meaning of this experiment, he must first of all siS can:at best, gii*anin ig t i into the relevant have some appreciation of the meaning of experi- abilities8. Becatge action its eases.knowl- mentation in general. For a scientific experiment 'edie,forecastinkisVound to be we n Unprecedented implies that you are putting a qUestton to nature. situationcMoretenerally, forecast,ngnnot hope to `4.-7[Hence, to assess what is being attempted in the , . USSR, the visitor] ought to be fudging, first by the example, debates in the 920's over such issues'as direction in which events are moving instead of by whether a plan differSfrom a prediction: Because theitpreciseestate at present; andsecandly, by the Bolsheviks believe .that Socialist, map is master of his scientific efficacy of the experimentwhether Or .. 6wn destinyor:can be, once, he hascome to under: not it has been.properly,planned so as to give a real stand the inner necessity of conditions---,-the\upshot .answer-to thquestion put to it, andnot merely a, was-that the two were judged to be very much alike,at jumble of confused half-answers, each capable of .least in principle. Scientific prediction ofevents and a dozen different interpretationi.30 conditiOns,'ipsofar as they could be foreseen, thus . .,, : It may be ardied, following Leites, that. what the became intermixed in theory with socialist intention. party permits, the party tends to require. If doctrine But the actual situation prevailing th,en (and even today) required that a distinction be made, based permits experimentation; then. practice demands it. on, ---"`"1Unquestionably, the moj important the fact that all men were not as yft "free" Theirener- ., historical thani- estation of this conviction is to be found in the Soviet gies, therefore, needed to be channeled, and thiswas to t emphasis on- planning,because a plan, if it properly be the main function of the plan. Prediction, being lim- ."puts its question," not only incorporates an inspiring ited to specifying certainties about the future, hadto vision of a future that can be attainedon the way take second place in "this phase" of social reconstruc- toward the ultimate future, but it also defines thecon- tion. As it was put at the Second All-Union Congress ditions of "struggle" and establishes unambiguous of Workers from Planning Organizations in March measures of the planper's foresight, the administrator's 1927: realism, and tele_sti4cess, of the "experiment." ACcord= , If our pJans were Concerned only with foreseeing ingly, the rise *large-scale economic planning in the the -objectively inevitable, irrespective of the will Soviet Union `a tendency that begah early butwas of the economic subjects, which is exactly like the formalized with the series of Five-Year Plans inaugu- conditions of spontaneous development in capi- rated in 1928 was accOnipanied bya growth in fore- cOuntries, then we indeed should have based' casting.3I And it is in precisely this contextbut*Only . everything upon scientific forepsts of the future._ in this context, -with all the explicit and implicit con - In that case, there would not have beenany point straints we have reviewed that SOviet forecasting first to plans. It doesn't make -sense. to constructa actived party sanctiOn.32 -,,,- plan for the rising and setting of the sun or for the Thus, while Soviet forecasters can and do track their development of thecrisis of capitalism, sincf these genealogy back to Marx and Engelswho; in the things take place in their own time and without -' word of Bestuzbev-Lada, "carried outan ideological any plan. But under Soviet conditions, a plan is struggle not only against utopianism but, first and expedient and necessary in order to concentrate foiemogt, against the agnostic approachto problems the -collective .will of the economic leader of the future common at the.titheamong the leading workers of the whble country upcinone or a,nother . bourgeois philosophers, who claimed that it Was set of tasks . We consider the focal point of inipossibleto make scientificprognostications of every plan. ,u3be not prevision butr they social processes"33,-,-t he practice 'of forecasting didnot assignmen,L3 and instructions,. 35 become formalized or legitimized in Soviet decision- Amtlhg other issues confronted during this period making- until concrete social experimentation- -i.e., were dnumber that have come back into promitInce in, Planningemerged in the 1920's.,,Ilis probably impos-- Abe,last I ()years, including the question of the extent to sible now to recreate the feelings of shock, derision,or which forecasters should make comprehensive,socio- excitement that were expressed by outside witnessesto e,conomic Projections rather than more narroweco- this astonishingly presumptuOuiand, nnpre, cedented nomic,predictions alone, and the question of the time kind of futures thinking. "To most bourgeois seient- horizon that Should be considered inmaking, these , ists,"" says Bestuzhev -Lada, "the very idea of sucha; projections. Since social forecastsseem to become possibility seemed fantastic. "34 Nevertheless, the work more useful as the time frame increases, these.issues are was begun, and the Soviets can rightly boast of being clearly interrelated, and, for doctrinal reasons already -the firstto approve the attempt (and institutionalkeit) discussed, the`expectation of Soviet forecasterswas on a,national scale. that the large view would be approved. But it wasnot; Almost immediately, however, forecasters and although some interesting work haa been begun:f planners ran into some of the questions, and presuppo-' . In the 1920T we not onlywere not lagging sitions hinted at earlier in this chapter, Therewere, for behind the West in the scale, andthe main V:0 '1 thingthe level of social prediction, but, on the in turn could mean a major reversal for the cause Of contrary, in many respects were even leading. But Communism in the world at large. From the forecas- then, as is known, the theory of the "very next ter's point of 'View, however, the dangers were quite dif- step' triumphed in our country. Anyone who ferepe They included the risks of beingeharged with . attempted to look too far into the future was quite "wrecking"; with no Icinger being a "real" 'Bolshevik .summarily returned, td the present.36 (i.e., one who has special insight into the future);4and with actually favoring whatever has been foreseen,' , This "next step" attitude -- easily' justifiedin the however deleterious to the regime and no matter how - tradition set the tone for all of the Soviet forecasting objective the method used. No one in the Soviet Union that, was dime up to the 1960's, and much of the work could have failed to notice_ that all of these accusations' since then. While its\iminediate practical advantages were made against the persons eliminated in the infam- were obvious, it also had the effect of retarding the de- ous purge trials of 1936-1938.41 There was also the still velopment of perspectives and methodologies that more insidious (and unpredictable) danger of some- have characterized the growth of the futures movement how having committed an unspecified mistake. In this in the West. In this sense, as one Soviet 119 Ruisiail;,,, 143 aissiest CI 11 1 Polish j ma ----- a 4 Polish Median Publication " 4 German OD ..: English . Date X 1. Pied' Median Publication ® 5German]1916.2 ---- 5 French - English, Date 121 '7 Glum (N) 19E8 '41" 4.Translations EnglistrukRussian - 3 French 129 Total number of works referenced 29 Translations into Russian 3 216 Total bilthogripliicalfehrences a a15 10 10 5 7 5 1956 51 00 62 M, 66 _a 1.970 7 ;.Year of publication P 4/ 1956 . MI - 00 62 1970 From I-. V. Bestothov-Lado, brodoir into U Futwe(Moseow:Mysi.1971). Year of pub6cation Ogiire 1 Distribution of bibliographicreferences . in Bestiufiev-lslla'sstudy, by dal, and area of:publication. "henceforward; prepare "long -term forecasts (for 10, national economy. requires ."forecasts ofpopulation 15, or 'more years)...for 'the most iinplitant prob= 'growth, economic needs, and scientific- technical pro - lens in the development of ttje national economy."64 gress, "66and.itstressed that improved planning must. The scope of this decree is larger than it mightseem at necessarily rely on "amore,precise study of social' first glance, since, in the words of its title, it was aimed neills, scientific forecasts of our economic ic potential, at "increasing the efficiency of the work of scientific or- ana complete analysis and evaluation df different ganizations and accelefating the use of ,scientific and options as well as their ithmediate,... and long-range con, techriologicil, achieVements." As such, its significance.- sequences."67 may lie in bringing together and approving many. dif- ferent strands in earlier forecasting work, including the- At least as interesting,as the expanded. Charter of SoViet forecasting are the reasons whyithis expansion' , developmebtOfmetho appropriate to the newer 4'."'"ttiks.65 . ler has 'occurred. Bestuzhev-Lada proyides4afe, cods; en- tional explanation.-In general; het. saystliegrowth in With the 24th PartYongress in 1971, it which both' the number and scope of futuresitudiestin the USSR Kosyginand,Brezhnev emphasized the deed for long-,. (and 'elsewhere in the world)' can be attryitted tQ the range plansAhe party sanction of forecasting was,' recent availability of bettet forecasting me hods; to the. apparently extended to .the widest bounds. The final- emergence of many -new nations, all seeking, eco7_ report dared 'that long-range planning of the nomie advancem*to the threat of nuCtear warfare; A "VIP, ., 9 A ejf 1458 311 %storm Sourc,findrAIN Apo/ a o 148Czeehaiifilt!4st * ... 111Sovieta4ithar Socialist SWIMS r M;661011biiiAtiOk Deo , Mom 1Ii. crschosiva: isaa . Ai 4 111 . :;: Si, . 11 : : 44° . .. I I if I I I Mrs 1134 1111 1916 1150 1165 MI Year of publizatiiin R. Rieta.Chlkstkistthe Cfus;rowls(Props: Intsinatier,lAitsSeissiesPress; Figure 2 Distribution of bibliographic references inRidne'istudy;by date and areaof publication. . to "the'growttviit technology; to the global, population .socialist Countries depends on how complex explosion and the problerh of providing enough food. comprehensive] and reliable these 6-recasts cane to the accelerated Pace of social change; and to the con-; beta tinued rise of "the world socialist iyiteM, Which pulped into the foreground the question of the trendsand Nye see here both an international and 'a dotnestic prospects' of the contest between the, two world social concern, each with a,it economic'and a. political dimen7, systems." Specifically, however, the growth of fore- Sion.4kut why,did these concerns manifest'thernielves-4 casting in the 'USSR has been proMpted by practical justthey didthat Wheon, s,i by 1965 atthe-latest?Tke concerns in the doctrine and ih the tradition: answer Is not given in the SoViet forecasting literature;, . however, it-can be pieced together from other sources,- The successful ,splution of the complex tasks of which seem to. make the rise of forecasting* ahnoo socialist and communist construction in the inevitable consequence of,anctreaction to, the Soviet Union and t'he fraternal countries,, of the- turism" and "harebrained; of Ahrushchey: economic, scientific and technological competi- On the international 'side, there appearSloNiptve. been tion with.. the world capitalist system, and of the gi4ntrine, among the military, Wit: 'Struggle against the aggressive policies of impe- what might be cakeslAhrushchev's4CountdoWn,,,dinlor, rialism; calls for 'the improvement of scientific -macy" regarding, 410 .areasIS Berlin and-Cuba was Marxist-Leninist 'Progndification of the long- based on ignorance of the actual of Soviet cana, . range prospects of develppinent of the modern hilities and,-hence,;the actual posiiiiilitiesfOPen to the world, 'The effectiveness of 'the long -range eco- USSR for current future maneuver. Matters so. nomic programs and the political strategy-ottlie important, including the grOwing sehisni between 1447 159 c...... , . 41 ...z, °MO China andlhe Soviet Union,could not be left to the ered was so large that, again according to Glushkov, a whim and the..bluff of a single person.69 Prudent action million cemputers operating around the clock at requires good plans, and good plans require good fore- 30,000 operations per second would require several ..., casts.of emerging situations, intentions, and physical years t6 work out a plan for the total economy.71 .capabilities. 9 Ta coin-plicate matters even ftirtfief,iirplears tliat The same is true, but with a vengence, on thetom6- Khrushchev had lost the support of the peoplefor his tic side, where the perennial and central econo economic planskThe fabled pernkovskiy ndtes that"ev- problem of the USSR has been the conflict bet een eryone laughs at _him,especia6at his slogan: `let us centralized planning and local autonomy in carrying catch .up with and-surpass America.' The pekiple are out the plans. This problem-has been described deftly smart, and they immediately responded with a joke: by Alex Nove: . ..) - In production, of milk,- - While centralizedplanning overburdens. the We have overtaken Ame'rica, t. organs charged with carrying [the plan] out,-, But.in meat we have failed.. decentralizationthe obvious remedyproyes The bull's penis got broken."72 completely 'Unworkable so long as planlers' Against this background, Khrushchev's removal q instructions are the principal criteria for local was almost guaranteed, d was his,replacement by a decisions. The modest attemfito dissolve au- leadership that was resolutely professional, orthodox, thority to territorial economic oorgans, in 1957, and faceless. It may also have been foreseeable that the ' was inevitably followed by renewed "centraliza- new leadership would, among other things, sanction , tion. Within the system as [it] is, only the center it newer, more .sysmatic, and more comprehensive in a position to know the needs of industry and p ' approaches tocYlannin and fOrecasting, since the society at large, since these are not transmitted by, improvisations and piec meal efforts of the Khrush- any economic mechanism to any territorial au- . chev years hadfailed tds;wive the "struggle." In any thority. The latter is therefore unable to foresee event, today's interest in ftures research in the USSR the effects of its decisions on the economy of others ...;:can almost certainly be dated from the.fatl ofKhrust- areas, and, in the 'circumstances, decentrtlized Whev in 1964. Indeed, onCktolier 17, 1964, the very24 deeisionmaking mot .lead to intolerable irration- after 'Khrushchev was turned out of office, Pravda ...,... Thus decentralization is both indis- alities fired one of the opening shots,in a virulent campaign pensable and impossible:70. against his leadership by referring to his failures in dealing properly with the future: "The Party of Lenin is Much more serious, than the failure ofthe,)1957 an enemy of subjectivism and inertia in .commtinist experiment was Khrushchev's apparentbtirina construction. Wild planning, premature conclusions, heresy in 1963-1964 of permitting the so -Cal edLiber- hasty unrealistic decisions and actions, boasting and , man reforms, which seemed to open the dopi acrack to blather,overpreoccupationwithadministratiOn, the profit motive as the 'needed "eermOmic.meetia- unwillingness to take account of the fruits of science nism."Though only 150 indu tries i,vere involved, the and practical experience ....are alien to it." And it was Liberman experiment dr wOOdwide attention, during .the inlitia work on the first major post - prompting surprise in.the W it and charges of "revi- the 1965 economic reforfn 'pro- sionism" from-China What 4as not given much atten- posals, that the, new approaches fOund their initial :; ? _;* firm-Was the fact that at the same moment the tram- expresSion: tional system Of 4tralized, short-term, and strictly ava.....rA 2. Soviet planners became convinced that the.key to P an t g in the USSR was on the verge of collapse. lushkov warned in, September 1962 improved economic performance lay in develop- that the econ might not survive uhiess the then cur- ing much,lrtiore "scientific" bases afiernetho- rent methqof pladning° were not totall,. changed. dologies ifof 'centralized itlanning.. The call for Indeed, ,hisstimate was that if the planning bureau- more "scientifically-based" plaits involved,two-, [perfect foreknowl- major ideas, First, long-term forecaSts of scientific cracy,-; conti ued to insist on having , edge of all the factors that should be taken into account and technological developments should be made (in the plans, the number of plane wouldwould. have to in some detailand second, all parts of the plan increase 36 times by 1980, at whiCrpoint the entire should,be based on projections (forecasts)qif eco- population would be included. Nor would computers nomic and social variables made with the use of help, since the,number of relationships to be consid- modern mathematic-al and economic models. The ..2...,. 148 .160 4 _A. ;planners perceived that the Sovieteconomy was these questions have fnot been developed yet in the not participating in the on=going, world fechuo- USSR, but there is enougho'verlappingamong the lcigical revolution and evidently believed that if ,variousdiscussions'permit an attempt at classifica- aectir.ate forecasts of technology mere -made, the tion. Thus, insofar ৠapproaches are concerned, three platikcouldtakethem into account, and the dislcbut interlocking perspectives can be,e USSIritrack record in this area would be recognize . d e improved.73 First, there is what we migh t call the substantive view, in which thescope and the,problem of forecast- ,ssfipproaches t ing aresstriottired in terms of the kinds of vbjectsto be 0 , forecasted. This straightforward approah-is illus- What ate these approaches, and what methods of tratedin.Bestuzhev-Uda's"SocialPrognostics forecasting follow in their wake? Standardanswers to Research," written in about 1967 (see Figure 3). In this NUM APIVOACHES TO PHOOLEAS TOME RINSE O 1 SCENTIRC-TECINEOLOGICAL PNOGNITSTICATION PROGNOSTICATION I OEVROPHIENT LIKWUJP/liff Of "SOCISLOSICH: Of SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOMIENTS qINDISCOVENED racchwier LAND ismovnemani U SE COELOPMBITS siesta °CONS THEM Kink MOON ANIHNOPOLOSICAL Itevicormens. INCH N. AL TIN PHYSICAL prIDATiscm. ManIHNICAN SOCIAL NEWTS& ICHIMPIC HITOTAA IMPUCATIONS INSTITIMONIL . TIM M IGNIONNEL PECONSTINICTINI t1C. POMPON N=iIENTS, MOLE MAW TIN SOCIAL STRUCTUREOf SOCIITY.1111 SOCIAL ASPECTS Of EDUCATION. HEALTHCARE CUITTME ETHICAL thrivw.from I .Besturhavlaihr, "Social Prognostics Research inthe Soviet. thion," in Robert and Jokes G4tang jeds.) Mandeb, 41111,11.104, Alisti and unwM, 19.11, PP.;.let 4. stuzi1.1;- 's classificatiOkof the types of PrOinoitkation: 1161- 4x '4 scheme, forecasting can be concerned with anYxf three 2.Intermediate Categories ,fundamental. types of processes: natural (e.g.,,,earth- y quakes; eclipses),.ohnical (e.g., the speed of compu- Religious approach: holds- that the futureis ters, fuel requirements for aircraft), or social (e.g., the 'determined'bysupernaturalforces(divine interactions of and man, man and society). The -pro;idencethat-it-can-be-i-oreseeti-by-fmtune" first category under social prognoses, "scientific- telleit and ptophets, and that it can be influenced techeologal progirostication'has come into such by.prayer and magical means. Pfominence since the mid-1960's that it will be consid- Fantasy- oriented approaCh:. involves arbitrary, ered at length btlow.74 The entries in this category, primarily artistic representation of the future; however, shduld be self-explanatory,0 except for largely involving supernatural forces, derived' "undiscovered discoyeries," which is simply a short- -- from folk tales-and also original fantasies (but hand for the forecasting of future developments in excludes science fictiq)i. areas of scitnce- that are develop' g rapidly. (For ex- s, ample, given ate current le work on cancer, one. Utopidnistic approach: involves arbitrary' repre- might softly forecast that a cure will, be discovered, sentation ofa desired future (nit tiettssarily based though 'its nature and the date of its discoveryltannot on ,abeliefindivineprovidence), _which be known precisely.) Generally epeaking; the subcate- subjectively seems to be scientific (based on gories under each of the four principartypes of social knowledge, not faith), but-wlutt objectively turns not to be based on a scier4ific, understanding_ forecasting are to be taken merely as examples; hence, 41. the lack of entries for "economic developments," of the laws of natural and social development. "domestic-affairs," and "foreign and international` (Similarly, there is. an anti - utopian app?oach affairs" is not significant -.7S Which presents a picture Man undesirable future.) . An interesting indication of the relative imPOrtance of there categories in Soviet research is provided by Positive Categories sorting the l3ibliographic entries in Bestuzhev=yd'a's Intuftiveapproach: involvesforeseeingor 1970' Window into the ,Future under the four main anticipating the.future on the basis of intuition headings. On this analysis, "scientific-technological" one's subconscious expeiience allows,hinno make -prognostication accounts for about Aispercent of the 'more or lessaccurate conjectures. titles; '106o-economic," for about 50 percent; "pOliti- Philosophical approach: involves predicting the cal and militity," for 10 perceht; and for , future as a result of natural and social devel- 15 percent. , opment Within the framework of, what is known- t The second perspective -fian ., be Calle41tlie. about the taws of development from the simple to Oresuppositional view; it divides the forecasiihg ente the complicated. Other philosophical concepts prise in terms of the attitudes or expecti:tions o turn out to be idealistic or vulgar-materialistic motives that underlie the forecasts that :are mad (e.g., the concept ,of regression from a goideAage, Bestuzhev-Lada recognizes eleven such kinds of pre-1 4*th . ! the concept' oe. cyclic nature of1h,iitory, arfq- supPositions that govern "approaches to the problems} 'other metaphysical concepts of non-dialectical of the future of the world and of.m.ankind"; these Progress). groups into tbree general categories: negative, interme- 1.; - ,, ;PrognostiCr apiproaeh: involves systematic scien diate, and positive. ' .,,, ., , tific research into the prosp&t,ive development of '), 1. Negative Categories 4 tone oranothet,phenomenon or of progress on the , . A Pffsentistic approach! hol4 that both the past.2) 'basis of known concrete laws of natural and social 4 and the future are essentially' the same as the developinentconcretization of the philosophical -approach. pres&t. , .., /,'---- - Agnbstic-approach: allows,,in principle, for the, 'x Constructive approaches: involves active efforts 'possibility of a different state oftaffairsi in the 1 : to shape the future throitgh4Planninarogram- -future but denies the possibility of knowing any ,1 ming,in4kitig projects; and:finally managing and thing definite abotr(thejuture, controlling processes._ .,2,9 Rihilistif(finalistic)approach:reflectsthe 40.(s.e- fence I fictionapproachinvolvesartistic conviction that there js no future that theiena of interpretation of the future based on data acquired. the world is at hand. 0 A by means of other positive approachesg6 44' >e, 4,s It should be noted that the "prognostic" and the strategies.79 In any case, the now well-established opin- "Coetructive" approaches (as well as the Marxist- ion, which has grown up over the fast ten years in the ThoUe of the "philosophical" approach) provide the USSR, is that piognostics, in this sese,s indispensa- only scientific litik_1_vith the substantive_ classification__ ble in planning,as Was suggekedearlier in this chapter_ scheme illustrated in Fig: 3. It should also be noted that. because these approaches are characterized in terms, 2. OperatioriT nuearch:This approach is,defined,by that have-speclill-meaning in the jargon. of-Commu- Soviet specialists in many ways, but it Tight beocharac- nism, the forecasting efforts of non - Communists are terized generally as the discipline or science of analyz- .therthy. imply bat-automatically relegated to one ing the yelktive short- and long-terimplications of. or more of the remaining eight or nine categories." alternative plans, prOgrams, or projects.80 More rigorously,itt can be viewed as a wholly quantitative, The third perspective on forecasting cansbe called cross-disciplinary approach in which carefully defined" * .., ,..... procedural view. Whereas the subspntive view problems of the future are analyzed according to these 'Indicates the bbjects of the forecasts and the presuppo- steps: establishing a particular operational goal (e.g., sitional v'el,i^iiiirdicates the beliefs behind the very act of maximization of outpuf fort fixed cost, or minimiza- forecasting, this third-way of thinking about forecast- tion of cost for a fixed level of afput); specifying key ing,appears to be based on a recognition that verbally parameters and coiNgtraints; developima model; and similar forecasts ca' arise in different contexts .and then running the modeln Order to rank-order alterna- , serve different ends. Accordingly, it divides the busi: tive poligyVariants against the operational goal.81 No ness of foreca'sting into categories reflecting the general doubt these steps will sound familiar to Western ana- 0N research strategies which are available to the forecas- lysts; the novelty of the OR-approach in the-USSR is t thter, quaforecaster, and which will deterniine not only that its ultimate objective, is "to develop decisionmak- the choice of specific methods to be Used (singly or in iiValgoritHIns for any situation."82 Combination), but also the place and function of the results in the much larger context of all efforts to '3. Decision theory. In this context, decision theory 44 understand and control the future. Important among is an approach that earaces "analytic efforts to model these strategies-are the approaches associated with par- and forecast the decisioninaking of-management in ticular disciplines: notably economics, thoush it is dif- attempting to evaluate or carry out plans, programs, ficult to find as Soviet forecastei who considErs" himself or projects. decision theory has a formal and an info'''. a.contributor to the futuresmovement and who, simul- mal part. The formal part is concerned with problems taneously, declares, that he is merely practicing eco- or portions of problems that-can be quantified and noiniewor sociology or anthropology. Almost always handled by computer;,examples include "control of he identifies timself instead witH one of the cross - technological processes, scientific approach to man- disciplinary. itsearch strategies that have achieved agement,tc." _The Informal part is concerned with sonte prominence in the USSR. In this, of course, he is -"proble here the preferred prIssibility is less appar- very math like his U.S. counterpart.78 ent, an final judgmentin making the.degisir is left to man. At present, the most advenced decision.- -Five such strategiesall but the first °of them making systems are designed as joint roan- machine uliTinately derived, apparently, from the Western liter- systems; however, a gbal for the future is to formalize ature, but with a predictable twisthave been fre- the entire system of decisionmaking and tp develop quently discussed by Soviet officials and researchers: mathematicantigeods to suchan extent that it will be , I. Prognostics. °This hybrid, is as close as the poisible to apply computers to the solution of higher- Commutoine to an -equivalent for "futures level prciblems which now can he solved only by research;'4,- indeed. Westein authors sometimes mistak- _nian."83 Even with reference to its ultimate aspirations, enly intefpret the terms as synonymous. But as the however, deCisiongtheory would appear to hold minor name of a procedural approach;prognostics" is cus- interest for today's forecasters in the USSR; the tomarily defined by the Soviets as the science of fore- approach sees Co be implicit in much of the discus- 'casting in accordaRce, with the doctrine (specifically, sion of natial planning models and national data in accordance with Marxism-Leninism)and then only banks, ,,, but even thereit does not receive' great insofar as the resulting forecasts are needecrin order to .emphasit,. s forniUlate.a plan, a program, or an actual project. These fi st three approaches have been viewed as Under the progn,ostics approach, then, it can even be parts of a single process,84 as shown4ithhediagram on .: 4 . said that a subjeCt is investigated.onlY td proyide data the next page. and insights necessary as inputs to the remaining four 4. Cybernetics, As a discipline or science,itt she . USSR, cybernetics is a marvelously variegated activity eral semantics or general systems theory in:the West. . that draws upon the skills of.mathema. ticians, philo- The reasons Iteorelical, ideological, and,practiCal sophers, econozAts, biologists,, physicists, psycholo- are not as siglificant as Qte simple observation that no gists, and others',1hcluding What we call information important Soviet writer currently holds that forecast: theorists and computer scientists, all of whom are con- ing is best purkued from-the cybernetics approach. In cerne ith the study cif -how information is or, can be fact, while every Soviet forecaster has undoubtedly used to ujate,systems and to delay as long as possi- been imbued with the concepts and principles of cyber- ble their inevitable fecline into total disorder. (The netics, n_ ot.one of the authors citecyn the bibliography . TexainpTe of a cybernetic system is a home for this chapter gic,..ny_progninenc- e to this approach; heating system under control of a thermostat. but almost dtrkof them even: uses the werd.86 . much more to_ the point in the Soviet case is the national economy, where rational Control is presuma." 5 Systems gnalysis. The systen*analytiC pproach, -bly to be achieved by centralized monitoring of-devia Soviet Union and elsewhere, Ads to draw tions from a centrally prepared plan.) As an approach together the main threads from the7other approaches, to forecasting, cybernetics would appear to offer sev- .rwhile avoiding theit weaknesses. As suclyt is probably eral adyantages which other approaches do not: future,,'the inn important research trategY for fOrecasting, states or conditions of the system being .studied must, though only in the-lust few years,, after much c9nfusion in the theory, be described analogicalbior probabilisti- .about what the phrase referred to, has the phrase and cally,, rather than exactly, thu; obviating the need for the approach itself begun to come into fashion.81-(It perfect foreknowledge. Simjgrly,..there is no need t1 has still not achieved the currency and reputationthat attempt to anticipate all of he sieond- and higher -_ has attended cybernetics.) Ott it is impoyant to note order'effects of partiCular actions, since this can better that difficulties O. Avoided under systems analysis be accomplished through continuous feedback on the because, typically; they are either ignored by the ana- actual impacts of thesc/effec; and forecasting, like the lyst (ite.; left up to the decisionmaker) or dealt with by a management of informatio f, does not require the best technique.881t is precisely these two total centralization but rathersome delegation of-, points that seem to make systems ahalysis'esPeciglly respoqsibility to lower-level ce rs in the overall welcome to forecasters in the USSR°. - hierarchy. 4 On the-,--tne. lian,itbecomesintelleCtUally . IntheSovietTsystem,". cybernetics has -.thug respectable to accept- the fact that ultiMate goals providedforecasters;planners,managers,and defined by the party fo5 the national system are not to the political leadership -with a° highly promising` be questioned; this . ishardly possible under the -. Way of surmounting earlierdifficultics, and it js not approaches discussed above. On the other hand, the surprising that.when, in 1958, the theory finally took.- counsel of' systems analysis to "do whit,yRu can" in .hold in the Soviet Union, it was wildly acclaimed as the dealing, with a problem enables forecasters Co begin , key to the full achievement of Communistn. Indeed,- using judgmental or "expert opinion" techniques "one can fine no.other moment in Soviet histOry when' situations hithertooff bounds because they could not. , a particular development in science caught the imagi- be studied using the sanctioned mathematical-eco- nation of Soviet writers to the degree which cybernetics- nomic methods.89So convenient is systeths analysis to has."83 Fbr ail the initial enthOstn, howeGit cyber-c the Soviets that when some econotnists recently urged netics apparently passed its zenith ome yeikrsAgo and, the adoption of the approach in notional planning O except in far less globat applications, hls now settled. thereby implying that Gosplan's efforts were not into inactivity with a status comparable to that of gen- 4 systematicthe" Deputy Chairman of Gosplan replied, ACTIVITY:, Forecasting + planning + Programing + Project-making- Management., . + .-4UTPUT: Forecast'+ Plan- .Progrom Project 9 clecision APPROACH: Prognostic] DecisioriTheory e. 152 tt. '164-- t74 1. 4,4n a Icing article that "the,USSR has now, and'alWays. has had, a `sirsteme and 'program' appioach toplatC ning."99 Itistarticularly in the development of what. ' the Soviets call "a system,of optimal oink, func-: tidnin`g" (SOEF) thit systeins afiais has achievid greateit favor. One -of the most impont problems iii the creation.of SOEF is tooniote the systems prin- ciple of -planning at a levels and in all elemen a of the national, ecomy. [To date,] considerable progress [towar ,this goal has been scored] in the elaboration q the methodology of macroeco- 'nomic fore/ sting and the methodology ofcon- structing dynamic interbranch and interregional balancesAnd .of making demographicand labor forecasts, as well as forecasts of the population's livinestandaids.. t In -our view, the basic ireytion 'for implementing the systems principle ti Manning lies in [developing mod Is th.43can be edito analyze the functidng of th mapage,rneitt Figure 4: Sliviet perspectives on teem:sating.: all levels in-the economic lderarci y and syli- hesize the optimal interaction among them these horizons should affect the Choice of research' within the framework- of a- single theoretical strategy or the location of a problem in its properstrat- apprOach4throuili this work, plus eiperimenta:'. egy space. A tion, will come SOEF; Which] envisages thecoor- . , dination of a complex of long -range forecasts,a . "tree of goals" in national development, and corn- Methods and Applications prelOive long-rangeprograms for the attain- - ment of the most important goals with the single Like futuresresearchersin. the ,West, Soviet'; national plan for the development Of the country's specialists in forecasting have sometimes found their . national economy 91 progass blocked byll "prevailing chaos in publiihed; .1-forting inethddologies and in terminology:".9i* Behindthis sopOrifie prdseare several truly4gnificant As,early as'190 Bestuzhev-Lada could seriously-say MesSagei: SOEF is of theyeryfirst importance; SOEF, that "about three hundred special methodologies". had "cannot 'be, attained without range of forecasts; been devised:for social alone,ij,anck.a. and these **casts cannot be repared scientificallyor year later Glushkdy'and, Dobrov could'aSsert that -With any guaranteetcornple ness Mile'ss the work methods existed, just feruse in forecasting the Cottrscof accoinplished- within sgerris nalysis. . . the scientific-te-cliTiologicif,-revoltition.9.t ':rlfhts discussion of approaches gives us,,then what is paralyzing,' abundanceoftieliniiiiies7.404,the a t re&ditnenslonal array. of perspectives thatcan be numbers should probably betai'enfasiteg,e:44i,V*01- a ted by the Soviet forecaiter,as.indicAted in Figure no one h4eyer actually tried to jistall_Of . figure suggests not Only that the. Soviet is not -SurpriSing that the SoVieta prefer. to forecaster can find a proper strategy fOrankPartieu,,lar terminf- types Offearkilique'S,"' Problem heCorifronta, but alSo that he inimediatW Out Of:several conipeting*toppmiestbatbafe been= Clal'aify any Mut-Co irimiinist foreeast,:_and thereby Published, .we,inight_lodkbrieflyat the by.. uate it Whatthe.figure does wrhave Bestuz.bev-1-4.94This,',s009354.,#6*. in Figure.4, OonsidereiVih thesepages is that.the'relatiVe merits of .note* pithy in Se4tirreszeetert attempts, n , the aeceptable approaches have shifted and continue to plete, but it exPlichltallOtifornew: tyKs.(by.Seiivii4. missing is another diineiision: time It is per- .several empty boXesffii.itniakes haps sufficient to remark that While the BoViets recog- appareptirqUite arbitrAyAssumptions;(e4.,-Piat. nine different time horizons for forecitsts-shot:t term ."analogy" is a, "general iiiintificArnethed"land.that _ years),,mediurn term (540 years),-,,or lengt,term and error" is athedreticallygrounded,"interdisci;--- (20:ot more 3i.ears).=they have littlejc.,,say abontit.ow plitia-,0 method,'? bucthat.neither.should. be considt. 1. r . METHODS OF FORECASTING IWrroThe-rica lam. THEORETICAL BASIS GENERAL SCIBITIRC METHODS SPIX3RC =SUMAC METhoDs I. 'METHODS RASED ON METHCIOS RASED THE PROCESSING OF DIFFBENT SCIENTIFIC AND !NOM TECHNICALNFORMATION METALLOGBIERC MAPS, - MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS FORECASTING -FECTRAPOLATION THE DEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC OF SCIENCE OF TECHNOLOGY DELPHI INDICES APPROXIMATiON METHOD OF CURVES INIERPOUTION FORECASTING THE OUALITATIVE VELOCITY OF UNITS OF THE AND OUMMTATTVE ARRIVING WAVES UTOPIA AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF INPUT AND . 1--I INDUCTION FANTASY OF SCRIITIRC TANALHEE OUTPUT ANAL PARAMETERS OF THE GRANTING OF PATENTS It DECISION HISTORICAL. MATRICES LOGICAL ANALYSIS fINFORMAIION IN fATait FIEPORTS FORECASTING fARTI4aumas1 FoorAtn nut - 'GROWN CIF EVALUATING THE HHYPOTHESIS -e""SCIENTIFIC INIMICAL SIGNIFICANCE PARAMETERS OF INVENTIONS TRIAL AND ERROR --1 EXPERIMENTATION -I __IFORECASTING* . LEVEL OF SCIENFI RC FIELDS OF KNOWLEDGE TECHNICAL THE OF ACTIVITY DECISIONPAAICING h. AND FORECASTING OF THE. PARABOUC GROWN .s.:1THEORETICAL- OF THE PARAMETERS - INFORMATIONAL SCENARIOS AND -]MOOELOF SCIENCE ANALY PATENTS , ITERATIONmoms. AR AMR ms APPUCATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY THE PATTERN SYSTEM FPERATIONS RESEARCH PRoimmuri AND MATHEMATICAL 0 STATISTICS m008.38/ED GAMES Of . SaEffilm TECHNICAL DEvEummENTs .46 , " , quotedfrom I.V.Ilostuzbev-Lada, Windowiiitope Future (Mosiovr. Myst, 1970), pp, 66ff. Figure 5. liestuzhev-Lada's daisiketion offericesting methods. 44* . ered as an "intuitive method"); andit confuses .siinificant,-howev,er, is fgat thisclassification.gejter- techniqueswithapprl;aches(e.g,,,"operations ously provides a place for almost every technique that research,' one-Of theproceduralappOaches, and has achieved iiiominence in .the forecasting -literature, "forecasting the fields of knOwledge," one of thesub. East and West. Thus;, Delphi, PATTERN, scenario faruiveapproaches, are shown as thethodpiEqually writing, and morphological analysis are onlygiven L r 8 I I. . . ': ' . 47. .. . --..... , . plin,, . . ..-, .. . separate mention, but are placed ortthe satne level as 4; .,.1t.'.:7A total restructuiing of the -national information such a well-esalished technique as input-ouiput system for economic and Other kinds of planning ysisand this dispite the fact that none of these data: - : ' methpds has beep used extensively in tilt Soviet Union. 2. creation of a unified state network of coM,Puter .. Their inclusion may simply be a signal of awareness; , centers. 2. . tnore imotrtant, however, it may also be a signthat by 3, Routinization and alginithmilation 'ot /day-to- 1970 the desireand the opportunity to experiment With day p.rocesses of administration and contrOl. , _rather exotic Western techniques had a fairly wide- 4. Creationof a dynaMic national economic! spread endorsement, thanks principally to the party's .ii-bk oplimiiing model for-continuous planning. (This. . insistence on having betterjnore cOMprehensive,and . is to be the heart of the system.) :-.. 40 longer-range forecasts.97 5. Development of the mathematical methods The question of superabundant alternative required to solve specific prohIegisfregarding the general model. methodologies can 'be radically simplified by exam- , ining actual practiceover the last 10 years in the USSR. ,6. Development of t concrete adinistrative and On this basis it is clear that the kinds Di: ieChnicjiles in Planning apparq s, includlg i ititutitns and formal and general use are few, though a bit more than havior rules,4sisie wit th genera m$del.; there *ere, before the Central Committee granted Kh ushcheVs "req est pa be relieved ofis duties." Fa Ef Gifts towlid,*these goals have been halting, , ariaway the mot deeply imbedded ad widely use heelailse of bureaucratic in-fighting; theinescapable are mathematic al-ecanomic rnetfiods (including- 'neele,to overcome ideollical problems (e.g., how sub- mptoutput analysis, liiiéarprograming techniques, Versive are non-Corn Munist modeling techniques?); and simulation Models); the supremacy of these, _ basic theoretical and computational questions (e.g., methods was norattained without much controversy, what criteria of optimality are to .oe used?); andpro- but it is now corgi*, at least in ternis of expended, cedural bottlenecks (e.g., the allocation of resources to effort. Musa furtlierdown the scale are the following the program, the training of personnel, the availability types:extrapolatiOn(nethematicaland,where of hardware, and thedebugging of,software).991Nev- unavoidable, siible'2'ilive); "expert opipion" or."eipert ertheless, research has proceeded and, indeed, has been evaluatioh";,"infOtTriational analysis" (includingespe- expanded. The SOEF scheme mehtioned earlier -?. ciatly the study ofipatents); "Iiistorieal-logical analy- appeared in about 1966 as a major elaboration of the sis"; and "charting techliicites" (including rele- basic idea. And in mid-1972, the'Institute for Problems vance tree). All oithese methods are used in both of Organization and ,.,Ivlanagemento group within the short-term and longerlange forecasting; for Our pur- Statf:Committee fOi Science and Technology which pose's, 'however, only the latter applications need be had been specially formed to implement the national discussed, since it is here that the problems of compre- comp? network, indicated that its assignment.had hensive forecasting arithrown into greateSt relief. TO been broadened-to developa ItStatewide Automated be aslet and yet ai tangible as possible, letus consid- Sisteirrfor Collecting and Processing Informationor er,nly the ,mathematical-economic and the expert Planning ana Administration (OGAS)." According to nion techniques. Schroeder: . , as a part of this project the Institutetaw-, . _ing up a plan,for the location'Of a state net- . Mathematical-EconbmicTorectisting work of comptiter centers and a metal n for--,',,,:.2-; the construction of a statewide data traiiimissidir ,The nature, place, and role of these techniques in the systems/ (Additionally,] OGAS, is conceivedal... Soviet scheme of things cannot be understood apart 4,1-ailing a number of key functional subsystems; from work that has been under;vay sine 1964 to [among them] an automated Systentdf plan calcu- -. -, ment'a planning 'system which is,, in its-breadtil and . latiOns (*PR), an automated' villein of [plan- , , daring, every bit as awe-inspiring to outsiders as 'was ping] norrnSIASt4), an automated systempfstate, . GOELRO Plan for the of the statistics (ASO'S); an automatedsystem for man-.. USSR. (Like GO -fiRO", also beenbeen cietided as . aging supply MIS), an automated r as, 4' s- "grandiOse,""visionary, and latopliAp.")s,dr.!ginally,,!:,,i;of standards and metrology (AW0S,),an. 4 byfy,?`hlenichiribi, and dev1oped in its automated system for 'processing price informa; . . Specifielhy_4fOuP of ana1ststhatiufed Glushg Son (AS01), and an automated system for Man- and' FidorenkoctliiisysienienviSinaiiithe f011gvier. -....`A.gernent of scientific-technicalprogress .. 7.. 1: , . (ASUNT). Inaddition to the natio a1 subsystems,' 'guidelines for planning." Perhaps most important is thereare, to besubordinate "line"a tomatedtys- the procedural necessity 'to,to pui less emphasis. on reniS of management (ASO's) for republics and (building modeli intended primarily.for,solving dis- ministries tO.ASU's)' and also for enterprises crete, one-time planningproblemsianpo turn greater (ASUP'4100. attention toward the creation-df."syniiptic" Models of N the, Siberian or Armenian 'sort. WhateNler, the weak Merely '-naming the system's, suggests. the cope and nesses ,of these "systems-oriented" :meets,. they nev- complexity of ibis program -Since forecasti4 is by no ertheless "mark the beginning a a new period in the de- tilea,ns-tht focus; it thouldbe clear that, in this context, velopment of economic model-builiting" ir"that They r ;particular foreCasting techniques, no Matter,- how are directly supportive of the national planning pro- extensiifely used, are best-to be perceived.as:auxillary gram Outlined earlier.104 toolsas means of achieving a certain kind of answer, which, if acceptable,-Oill have value only as an input to Of.specifiCmathematical- economic forecasting f 'a larger whole. -The' Point can be stated more crisply: techniques, the one most closely associated by Western Forecasting was sanctioned in the 1920's to the extent observers:with the Soviet U. ion, and The dnthat; thf t it co-uributed to planninginothinglhat ch4ngeci_ Soviets themselves seem-to 'believe th0.-lia ow, except the decinition of planning. I oped furthest, is input-outp t analysis. The,istoily"111- of Eden at this early stage of .work on SOEF and 110 in the USSR is interestiIig, if only because it tends OGAS, mathematical-economic techniques have been to recapitulate some ideas about forecastingdisctissed used with some success in the USSR. For example, the earlier in this chapter. For example, as in the case of 444 Institute of Economics and Industrial Production of cybernetics, when I/O first achieved prominence, it the Siberian SS R Academy of Sciences has devised an achieved great prominence:I-his occurred as a result of interlocking set of computer models for describing and, wqrk perfonted in 1961, which involved constructing optimizing the- relationships between national and ariempiriCal (i.e., retrospective) I/O table for the regional economic development.wi Similarly, a tiko- SMfiet economy in 1959 and then using the principal: , stage triodel was constructed "to explore the possible coefficienti from this table to build an experimental economic development of Armenia. Despite some dif- opIC 'ming table for 1962. The results of thireffortyiere ficulties in handling prices, it was judged that the mod- very encouraging, 4 compared with expectations elsreflected the structure of the economy satis- based on methods then in use: not only did the I/O factorily, though they were unable to take sufficient table reveal potential roadblocks in production and account of external influences.102 In general, according indicate where resources could be diverted from to another author's review of results 'over "the past 10 intended use to-increase overall output, but the results fears" in btiilding and applying such models, therec- were producedfaster- and apparently with less ord "shows-that their use makes it possible to reduce manpower. lie immediate conclusion was tojncorpo- current and capital outlays on the production of rate I/O in all subsequent planning. output by as average of 10% to 15%as compared with the plan variants calculated by traditional methods. From that point -on, however, the blooni began to .But, needless to say, the gain . 'it not restricted to fade, as analysts discovered the difficulties orobtaining. this. These models make it pOssible to solveproillcms, adequate statistical data and input norms, and of com- of economic balance on 'an improved methodological municating the results of the analyses to de-cisiontnak- basis, to analyze the various directions of the develop- ers: Thus, experimental planning tables for 1963 and inent -Of. the national economy, to cemputea large 1964-1965 were attempted, bin. little, was heard.,_ of number "of variants of economic -planning decisions, them. The table created for 1970 was billed as"thefirit. and to select the best one."10 step in the practical of thismethodfOrthe construe 7- O lion of a five -year 103 Truelo 'the "spirit of ComMon to all Soviet. publications on futures movement, the analysts. also used gktablp.tp, mathematicakconomic, modeling is -not only a state- develop soine:1.5720. variants Of the' plan,.frotn8hich. meiii 'of sti-ccests, but also an indication of steps yet to be they drew.:twO"yilich best correspond tofittpolitical, taken; these include deyelopment of a riCher and more and, economic tasks of the forthcoming fiveleal',Plan.. 'quickly updatedida,ta base, the introduction of better,. a d also to the material and labo urces which will means for handling "the influence of social (actors on available."'" These they$prerated the political.. :production," and the invention of "a sufficiently le dership; neither' variant, unfortunaly, vas well reliable method for-translating forecasting results into received:107 mop 3 ' . As of early.1968, according to one Soviet economist, meaning in the Soviet Context, where doctrinal and 4111b Irwould be no exaggeration to saythat not a single traditional beliefs would seem to imply precisely the important deciiion in current or long-rans has opposite. Almost certainly the conclusion is meant been taken on Ai basis of Construction of I/O bal- to hold only for developments in narrowly defined ances."!,118 Haying made a commitment to the techni- areas (e.g,, the future of shoes, ships, and sealing que, hoWever, the Soviets refused to abandon it. wax), including very precise lines of development in Indeed, academic and bureaucratic insistence on Communist society itself, such as the uses of leisure perfecting it grew. The extensive work that followed, time or the creation of new art, forms. particularly at Gosplan, led to the preparation of Crois-disciplinary forecasting is necessary in some planning1/tables foreach of the years in the Ninth. cases and, where it is,' it requires:reliance on expert Five:Near Plan (t971- 1975). Much the same claims were made for these tablesno doubt accuratelyas judgment. This is due, in part, to the fact that while specialists in the conventional disciplines could pre- were,, made for the 1962 table, and, like the 1970 table, pare long-range forecasts, they have-11ot done so.111 these-tables were described as 7a decisive step" towed Other workers, therefore, must make the attempt; theariplication of I/O in practical. planning.106 Soviet specialists' ar,e now well aware, of course, of the this necessarily involves personsliom other fields, who must estimate what otherwisekould be..com- strengths and of I/O, both as a forecasti g puted. But more compelling reason is sthat thp methOd and, as a mathematical-economiC modeli g to be covered comprOensiv j, technique that can contribute to SOEF or 'WAS, A d range ofsubjcts cross-disciplinary long -rinse fofecast can beo out of the 1970 experience, they have probably also dome to appretiate more deeply how I /O, like any large that, In theipresent state-of=the-art, only judg- mental techniques provide a means of integrating forecasting method that concerns itself with the entire the different kinds of forecasts 112 ':system," can threaten the leadership's prerogatives, particularly in goal formulation. It remains to be seen, Various aspects of the future can be dealt with only hoviever, how I/O will be fine-tuned in response to probabilistically and, in Softie cases, the needed prO- these percept iodst babilities can be derived only judgmentally: This is true both iii1he shott terr(where one may be prac- Expert Opinion Methods of Forecasting ticing normative forecasting) and in the long run (where prognostications are exploratory). 113 The gradual but ever -wider expansion of the charter' granted to Soviet forecasters has inevitably been In initially 'choosing forecast objects from all of the accompanied by relatively modest though increasingly possible topics, trends, and future states of affairs, serious efforts to develop, test, and incorporate ludg- judgment is not simplyuseful,,but is in fact the only mental techniques in forecasting, especially, Longer- means available. There is no other way to start. range forecasting. Why has this hapiened?ThOugh the - Moreover, given practical constraints'on time' and extraordinary impact-of the 1964 Gordon-Helmer resources In the forecasting effort, it is probably nec- report on Delphi, so influential in the West, was felt sit essary to determine the relevance or ultimate Value th'e Soviet nion, very little of the new interest in of these Initial Choicei by making- "preliminary opinion-based techniques shOilld probably be attrib- forecasts" tiAtidgitent.114 uted to, this source.16 Rather, the evidence suggests Similarly, "a forecasi whiclr-has only ,a single object, that Soviet appreciation of this class of methOds was to be forecast on a single:level of the national econ- _inspiied principally by the unique character of the, omy is; in the finil analysis, always based on problems the forecasters were being asked to address, methods of expert opinion and extrapolation, inast , and by the approaches they were obliged to adOpt in much as the initial information regirding the future addressing them. Specific arguinents that have been for making calculitions with mathematical-eco- offered for the use of jtidgmental Methods include the nomic models can be Obtained oilly`by such means. following: However, in matking-forecasts based on hierarchical interdependencies of a 'system of models, expert farther one goes out in time, the more the uncer- opinion and extrapolation of past tendencies are r4ainties tend to multiply, and the greater the reliance one must place, therefore, on expert scientific required only in the first stagei of analysis."115 -opinion to cope with theie uncertainties. Western Cutting icross .these earlier arguments isthe - .observers will find this enthymeme quite Comforta- additional and, somewhat surprising notion that . .e :ble, but they may wonder about its.Preciseforce and "forecastingwould,scarcely supply meaningful and ::., -:.,: . , ,...- objective information about ,the future 'if the most and surveys and polls.123 One of the few distinctive prestigious specialists did not participate in the work `methods developed by the Soviets that has been db-. and if the points of view of different scientific scribed in any detailisthe ;collective expertise . .schools and design trends were not adequatelyrep- approach" or "the method of collective expert assess- resented in the hypothesizing Of complex fore- ment,"126 or CEA for-short. This methodactually,a casts."116 Indeed, one writer goes so far as to assert 'procedure or even a generalized study designseems the advantages to "the Whole scientific community" intended to serve as an alternative to Delphi. In fact, of taking formal account of opinions thatare dis- because one of its major goals is to highlight differen- t inctly off-beat.117 cesx- between well-defined groups of experts, it retem- In general, the advantage of judgment and,,hence, bles iin spirit the SPRITE'approach developed by the of expert opinion techniques inoforecasting is that Business-Planning Group of Bell Canada.127 The because human,intuition can bypass :the methods of uniq'ueness Of CEA is that it involves a combination df formal logic,"8 it is "the sole source of information specific opinion techniques which, together, definethe which...is ahead of what is contained in ordinary approach. In order, the steps in CEA and, the sub- scientific information."14Therein, of course, also lies methods used are as given in Table I. its main defect, becausel almost nothing is presently known about how to ascertain the reliability of sub- The amount of effort implied by even this synopsis stantive judgmental foreLsts.120 At the moment, since of CEA could be. staggering. Unfortunately, thepa- formal us6i of these t4hniqu s can Ino longer -be pers CEA fail to atiswet several obvious uestions:. How avoided, one acceptable solutio,to this difficulty isito any 'expels can orshould b invold? How, see to it that not only 're the, estimates themselves precisely., do they interact?in face-to-face di cussions? elicited, but also the reasons that stand behind them.'21 Throtigh questionnaires? How many rounds f estima- In a sense, the reasons can be the forecast;a recurrent tion are required for various typesof estimates? Isano- theme in the literature is that expert opinion methods nymity preserved? How are disagreements between like Delphi hold greatest promise in situations where groups of experts resolved? Are any of the estimates the most one can reasonably expect to obtain isa derived as probabilities? How long does CEA take? purelynualitative assessment of the future. Where and in what form are the final, analyzed results intended to be used in the planningor decisiorimaking Among the expert Opinion techniques occasionally process? Indeed, has CEA; ever been tried? As yet, mentioned by Soviet s'pecialists arvpplications of util- there'-are rid, indications that it has. Onone pip, itytheory, 122 a method called Nitnulation" which however, the advocates of CEA are clear, and their appears to be much,like what is called operational or position is markedly different from an attitudecom- manual gaming in the 'United States,' 23 Delphi itself,' 24 mon among Western advocates of expert opinion tech, . . TABLE 1. Step 9lbjective Method4 1. Preforecast Preliminary forecast afiasic trends, in the area Tref; extrapolation orientation of interest in order to "formblate the general aim" for the area. 2. Construction of Comprehensive as ent of the degree to which Cross-support matrix. (Dis- an "aims.nieans" each identifiable 'set oelevant actions would tinctively, here each set of matrix contribute to the achievement of,the "subaims" actions is expressed in terms ccImprising the overall aim. of trends, The action set is thetexAfalt kl)osyn relevant trends!) 3. Formulation of Assessment of (1),the relative importance of Relevance trees, various "tables of expert 'pursuing each set- Of actions; (2) the relative im- matrices, and simpleques- 9 assessment" portance of individual trendi within eacti,actidn tionnaires. , 'Mt; (3) the various subaims; and (4) the timing of particular events that mightaffect theirends. Also the individuil participant's self-rated exper- tise on each assessment. - ,158 170'r- a niques: The overriding purpose. of CEA is to obtain Union, V. M. Gluchkov,and G. M. Dobrov anticipated certain kinds of information needed for "making deci- the 24th P,arty'Congress by writing in 1968: - sions in [an] authorized area of .policy"; the activ- ity would be a failure or near failure if all that came out The high level of development of modern science, of it was intellectual stimulation ("cognitive value") for the unprecedented rate of scientific and technical _ progress, the unparalleled increase in its mutual . the padicipants.128 relationships-, withotheiaspectsofsocial This review of forecasting methodologies can be existenceall of this requires that scientc and brought into sharper focus by observing that, substan- technical development be planned in a rational tively, the most important concern of Soviet forecas- manner. [These] requirements of society for intel- ters in the last few years has been to help clarify and to ligent control... have created a new branch of project the future evolution of what has come to be knowledgescience managementr7,and its new; estsectorscientific and knoWn in/ the Communist countries as thmcientific- technical' forecast- technica) revolutiOn.' This phrase refers especially to ing .. The most important goal of [this kind the fact tharwhile 'science and technology have indeed of] forecasting is the establishment of an environ- been and continue to be "the main lever for building' ment within which the most promising directions the material and technical basis of communism,"I29 the for scientific and technical progress in our coontry rate of development in these areas; coupled with the can be selected and advanced."4 levels of economic well-being now achieved, place the tention to the necessity of exploring the course of Communist states .tin the edge of a major historical tte qientific-technical revolution has led, of course, t trahsitioguanritt' cap be turned into'fivalnY; se4iice madyboOks and papers,some of which shed.ricdifferen itself has ecome a fundamental productive force:60 light bn questions -of the choice of forecasting method. Today1 we are standing on the borde,r of the A rather ndrrow but nonetheless interesting article (bn historically formed industrial civilization;, simul- howbesttoforecastindicatorsofscientific- taneously, we are beginning to cross its horizon. technological 1m-ogress in mechanical engineering) re- The civilization of future decades,will evidently be stricts the choice of methods as shown in Figure 6. A based on substantially different ploduction forces much more impresSive analysis, is given by U. A. than the industrial system of the past and present; Zykov;135its essenceis summaiiied in "Figure. 7. and this transition will inevitably carry with it far- According to Zykov, economic forecastS cantOp a Va- reachiijg revolutions and dramatic social and riety of attributes, as indicated in the figure.!? In this 'Inman problems. "Now] economic growth is scheme, attributes can beZinbined only iirthe direc- beginning to depend much more on the overall tions indicated by'the arrows. (Thus, a forecast may be state of science and the progress of technology Miantitative, normative, stratepic, many-factOred, and than on a numerical increment of men and so on, but it cannot be descriptive and quantitative, or machines in the direct production process 131131 analytic. and normative,.at the same time41 The deci- 4 bsie sions among attributes culminates at the bottom of tir. qpr these reasons, among others, the 2 P rty diagram in one of four general classes of methods..A Congress in the Soviet Union declared that "Speeding novelty of Zykov's analysisone he himself missts-is, up scientific and technological progress is the decisive .that its applicability is not limited to either economic, condition for raising the effectiveness Okocial pro- or-scientific-technical forecasts Clearly, it applies or dtktion," and it held that "questions of speeding up can be made to apply to all of tsubstantive andpro- [this] progreSsshould be constantly in the focus of the cedural approaches dis d-rlier. attention of the Central Committees of the Communist In this Connection Parties of UnioniepOlics,. (he territorial, regional, hOuld remarked that the , city and district Party committees, Party, govern- notion of "universal" met ile it might be conge- ment, economic, trade union and-YCL organizations, nial to Soviet forecasters since there is, after all, cinly, and the collectivesin enterprises and on collective and one futurein the end, has 'apparently not gotten mu h` state farms."InIn sum, every agency, every adminis- farthecin the USSR than Mgr West. This is not to say, trator, and every subordinate should give highest ho'Weie, that attempts to.clevelo0 generalizedproce-. priorityto ,-thesuccessfulachievement, of this dures, applicable within iltii,context of any .of The revoltilion:133 ' ,acceptableapproaches, have not been made. We find, for AXatkple, -that one of : the pioneers in Soviet Translating these conclusions into propositions (and forecasting, Vladimir Lisichkiri, hasItvorked outa r. Marching orders) relevant to forecasting ih.the Soviet "complete" process Which he.believes provides a place ' 411,0* lct-iA- METHODS OF FORECASTING wpm MAY BE USED . . BASIC INDICATORS OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS '6 'S. . I II .111 1.Effect of now typ sof production equipmentillinticalmogineering: X -X X .-2.Effect of hig-capocity equipment on production X , X X- .- (coeffichmt of large-scab capacity). . 3.Contribution of automation to tho total vela of,, _ X.- -: -if roddillfilethawnand oliPment . 4.Relstivo Motilial capacity (i6 Units of production). '. X X _5: e Index of growth of productivity of a single aggregate. X X X 6. etre Of IldkirOgreiailt Miliaria. X 7.Durability (period of service before first overhaul). . . .i: ,x ,,1 ii- . iii" x /1 9. , 1i ' Index ofehinging indicators of of nquipnont. ',1 X 10.Index of price charge.. , X -11,India( of quaff% 6f merely created or modornbitlimipmeft. X X X Ir.' Technical equipping of labor. . . \,-, X '13.Availability if energy. ., X .. . M. Level of mechanization of production; level of automation , of production. .X . . 15: .. c '4' X . X . nf' . 16.Effectnow technological methods end probruisive ' x .y typesof .i '..-.*: .- :.. '"11:16Vol of matron. , . X ' 16. is economical orgatiaiionof labor. . ,.. -,..,%, ti _ lb, Toehnical level of preduction, '' i. -X M. Index of thongs in the cost of, production; index of the. '''''.. _...,!,,.4, b . *,c(A'', dialled ProductiYitY 21,i--. -..,,------, . 1. .---'6"-- *4' . , ; Dffivod from E. G. Chistythow and N. V. Dolgowirm. "Methods of Protecting thSPnignissof Science *And locimolois in ilosimnics164nOminf ("Vow,/ mstodiki prognizirmonis nsocno4onichoskogo mignon v mosiinsstrosni"), IswithA1 !WOW. Einesaikkeslara No. 211172).m. S;22..,:,-,, , . ... - , / , h ° - ..Figor0.6. Applkobility of son*methodsin forecasting scionce-tochiiology indicators. c , . , for every "operifional fore-Caiting scheme"- extant. speCtion; diagnoiis, and .prognosis), in each of which- MoreOVer; he is willing to assert that "the pri ry task° specific 'tasks and steps are performed. No summary for" futurcteiielopmen,ts 'in forecasting met odology would do justice to the entire process, whiCh is distinc= , will be ihe' forrikulation andiurtber efaboraf on of the dye in concept and expression, and so we simply tiuote principles and thepries";embodiedin his pr dure.137 its essence here, omitting on19the examples; . This method.of mCifilids° in1,151Ves three stages-(retro=./ .,, '.14). 160 auentitativ Medium term Single-factored Multi-settO ed Multi-levelled Systemic Conditional Stage (:RETROSPECTION Stage U. DIAGNOgIS. Task A. Refinement of the forecast ohjeCt (i.e., ask 'A. Determination of theobjective of the delimitation of relationships betw-eeidthe -forecast (e.g., confirmation, estimation, foiecast object andtther objects, as wellas tentativeassessment; ' planning, the specification of feasible and permissible management). changes in the performance of the forecast .object.) Task B. Determination of the relationship between forecaster and forecast object (e.g., passive; Task B. Determination of the group to which the active). forecast object will belong [i.e., can it be forecastedperfectlyoratleastsatis- Task C. Determination of the current characteris- factorily byitself,or must additional tics' of the forecast object. outside information about the object group .Task D.Determination of the noise level for objects be gathered and taken into account?]. in this,class and of coefficients repre- Task C. Detennination and precise interpretation senting these noise levels (where "noise" ofthe parameters of the forecast object as a consists of factors which cause a loss or les- whale. sening of the information available about 4kes. the object). Step I. Determination of the nature of the , forecast (whether it is to be ,de- Task E Determination of the forecasting methods seriptive or quintitative.) to be used 'singly or in combinttion. ee4 . ,,Step12. Determination of the scale of the Task F. Determination of methods to be used far - forecast object (local or Slobal, evaluating the probability andaccuracy of the forecast and for, verifying it. step 3. Determination of the time period to be covered 'by retrospective Stage III. PROGNOSIS (FORECAST) analysis. el . Task A. Preparation of subunit forecasts. Aet Task' D. AnalysisoftheforecastobjeCt and Step I.' Forecastingofallsubunit ems.. definition of structuralsubunits, their tee elements (following appropriate * parametersand properties. rules). . ,Step I.Isolation of the structural subunits N-Step2., Checking for the determination of the foreCast object. to ensure that the same scien-. Step Z.Exact definition of the object. -tifiCInguagYis usedon the sub- parameters (their characteriitics unit level as is required for the and structural ° ohjeefs as° a w,bolej. Step 3. Determination of the types, of Step 3. Chedkjng fbrjustifiability (i,e.to-. relationships between, the stnic- ensure that all requifements and . tural subunits. pioblems identified, for, each sut)-0 Step 4. Detetmination of the basic unit in Stages I and II have been physicaleffects thatgovern the 'dealt with); action o the subunitsnd, hencd, Task B. Synthesis of the subunit foietasts of the the forecast object I as a system: same. class. 1 4.. I, 0, Stop 1,, S-yfithesiuof the fOr oasts ,1"Task E. Determination of the significance:Of each it(following appropriatuttles. .-,..,§., parameter of the structural subunits of the , Step 2., Checking for the determination. forecast object (as was done for the object -Step 3. Checking for Just!titit guy. as awhole:in.Sttp .'ask C. Integration of allclasses of subunit Task F. Cohstruction of an approximate and forecasts intoThoforecait object (folloWing . . hypotheticamodel of the forecast Object.. appropriate ruleS).. P 162 1 $ .0e Lisichkin's all-purpose method was stillborn, if the cisely in the same 10. years whic have witnessed the utter silence since its publication is the test. In spirit, appearance of the Soviet futurists.139 By 1970 some however, it certainly 'anticipated an imposing order 30 conferences on the subject had en held in the issued in late 1972 by Gosplan, the State Committee USSRall but one or two of them, incidentally, closed, for Science and Technology, and the USSR Academy to outsiders. Indeed, after the February1966- onfer- of Sciences. Entitled "Main MethodologicalM Principles ence '(on "Scientific Problems of Telepathy "),t e and Mandatory Requirements for the Completion of NOvosti Press Agency declared, "It is clear that in the Scientilk and Technical Forecasts," this directive USSR, official science is actively and passionately_ sought to.stdve-the set of problems, increasingly voiced inclined henceforth toward the enigmas of parapsy- from the late, 1960's on, of inconsistencies among ihology."140 Not only has "official science" made approaches and methods, unnecessary duplication of repeated careful tests of such nationally famous Soviet forecasts, incompleteness in the finalresults, and psychics as Wolf 'Messing, Nelya Mikhailoa, and Karl inadequate communication of findings to the planning Nikolaiev,", but, more important, if has supported (to and decisionmaking apparatus. As highlighted by the level of some '20 million rubles a year) 'research Schroeder, who characterizes it as the "very epitome of directed toward highly practical applications in such a bureaucratic docuMent," its central provisions are areas as space flight, military operations, and crime that henceforth every forecast, whether technological prevention. \ or social: It 'would- seem straightforward for the Soiliets to ...(I) must contain both technical indicators begin to ask whether what has been learned in this and indicators of the economic effectiveness of woilican be transferred into scientific forecasting, but vaqousays "to implement domestic and world this has not happened yet, at least not publicly. Quite achieveents" in the field isvdIved4(2) shank! possibly the 9planati9n is simply, that tqO much is at inclUde .anevaluation of l'the " social conse- ys Stake. In the technical language 44 the *caste!' and ) quences" of each forecast developme*(3) should planner, however, the issu& is hot the role that might be include an analysis of relevant past and prbsent :... played by a forecast in the planning process, or even its developments in the USSR and the world and a source; rather, the issue is ode of criteria for evalu- predictidof developments in the period con- ating its scientific merits. Among the Soviets arid the cerned. nd (4) must be submitted to five separate Communists generally, as we have seen, these criteria agencies, with mandatory coVeragerof a large are of vaus kindsdoctrinal, political, economic, nuniber of specified items.138 . logical,ciehtific, social, andf`finally, pergonaland d conservatively inscifn c ore- Curiously, the more recent Soviet literature On for casting, as elsewhere.'42 cast1ng contains nomention whatsoever of this decree,) . though by implicotion the authors consistently support its intention. By (heme token, however, none of the'Some Conclusions--. lit erature refers ev to the existence of such official documents as '.Gosplan:s . book of standard 'So yiet forecasting,we could conolude, begins and methodological ,instructions. for planning, which has ends in thb vision of the future.given by the doctiine. been around for some years and, _importantly,was_ This vision, this image, provides much and deinands revised in 1972-1973. Even ifto take the _extreme nothingexcept recognition, belief, and elaboration. casethe specialists whose work we have considered As with all good secular utopiosa principal strength of in these pages are not b by these directives and the Communist vision lies in the rather pleAurable guidelines, why have kEy not, in their published writ- " tension ejsting between the fact that its ultimate goals ings, sought explicitIrto influence them, seem almost-ineffably desirable (being compounded, By way of concluding this discussion of as they are, of roughly three parts golden rule and one methodology in.the USSR we might note another cur-: part pure greed)-,...and the -.fact thatxgivehthe 'peculiar isms omission frOm the forecasting literature: the total nature of the WdilaztheTision reqiiiies almost endless absence of references to the-extensive Soviet research elaboration, both in thought and action. Thanks to the that has. been and is being performein parapsychol- imp of the perverse, invincible ignorance, sloth, and ogy, including precognition the 41 teexpert 'opin- .othlr inala4ies of man, life has a way with noble and ion technique. hi contrast :to the d States. and self-evident ideas in a finite world. From' this simple other Western countries, the U 's evinced- a fact arises the need for party, program, plan, and strong serious interest in parapsyc. gy, and dre- prognosticationnone of which: everyone would e . , 163 175 .- agree, is itself ineffably desirable. But, 8f course, the damental questions about the significance of forecast- doctrine 'provides the solution: eliminate the first by ing in the West. pursuing and gradually improving the final three. And since those individuals, who stand to be eliminated 'To spur such questioning, we Offer the following six along with "the party" have the most tolose, tdoc- .points as a'kind of summary of the preceding pages and trine alsp consecrates them to goxera 4the pr cess.'of the "declaration". from the.USSR that runs through `Thus, in concrete experience, the vision is trapsfO ed them: into a truly cybeoeticsys0m, within which every act, 1. The soviet forecasterinvariably sees forecasting process, and role, including that. of forecaster, has a as a way of helping to achieve the Commtinist victory, place and a purpose. a victory that is never questioned. gestuzhev-Ladais the ,most diAtof all of his colleagues in snaking this Accordingly, the important changes which have pclint. Inllis paper for the Third World, Future occurred in the practice of scientific forecasting in the Research Cdnference in Bucharest in September 1973, Soviet Union ever the last SO years have taken place he put it plainly: "Marxist social forecasting is a form Only inaresponse to altered conditions identified by the of concretization of scientific Communist theory and, party. For the first 40 years, and to the extent that fore- an instrument of socialist planning.", 143 Many similar V casters had a separate identity at all, they were mere statements can be found, as, forexample,this one: __ handmaidens to the economic planners and adminis- Marxist-Leninist social prognostication... rests tratori.Inrecentyears,largelybecause 'of the scientific-technical revolution and the program to oirthg solid foundation of dialectieglind histori- implement a national planning system, 'they have' cal materialism, on the theory of scientific com- munism, and it is rooted. materially in.the socialist become mere handmaidens to allt pes of p4inners and -mode of prOductio, thus opening up the broadest administ4tois. What a Westeiftrp obselver I,possibilities for p nried AIevelopment of the to believdthat this shiftaniountto a fithdamentai economy and socie y a4 a Whdle:Tifelein lid the '4'4 redefinition in the role of the Soviet forecaster, is the basic advantage of shock of-discovering that.-the Soviets have in some" arxist-Leninist irogncistiesa tion over bourgeois futurology. What is needed is- respects now become like the mere handmaidens in the [only] to make better use of this advantage.144, - West who practicelutures research. Whereas the Wes- .4or. tterners started in technology, the Soviets began in eco- With this 'understanding and framework, he Soviet no mics. Each, it might seem, is now simply discovering forecaster obviously does not have to wonder about the other's field, and both are discovering social fore- the ultimate purpose of the contribution he is asked or casting. Superficially, there is something compelling ,ordereci_toiniake.Specialists may ando disagree, of about this view, if only because it sugge s that real op... course,.about the value of this methodor that assign- portunitieVor East-West cooperation in forecasting ment, but the final arbiter of such arguments is altv'ays may be found. While these opportunities o exit and how 'time and skill can be used most effectively in the should be developed, the view itself is wrong. Tliecloc- work of building Communism, .kr- . trine, the party tradition, and the actual experience of ' forecasters in the, USSR make it so, as the, Soviet fore- 2." The Soviet forecaster sees 41recasting by ,non- caster is first to declare:. . .., Communists as a rearguard, and pernapsblackikuarcr, activity, destined .to prove pointless. Until Cominti:-. ,It is extremely important that If estern forecasters -nism has triumphed, however, it is also -an- article of \ understand what his declaration amounts to, explicitly faith that "social forecasts [byCommunist and non - and implicitly, because it tells us not just about fore- Communist specialists] have lien and remain 'an ideoz, casting in the Soviet Union, or about forecasting wider logical battle field"!45 Marxist and "bourgeois" fore- Conditions of dictatorship, or even about forecasfing, casting are in a permanent, irreconcilable conflict; its the'future is known"reyealing through these . only resolution will come with the, death of capital; undoubtedly are. In addition, it tells us a great deal."...ism.146 When, for example, in.,' 972 the Economics about the very aims of forecasting, in this world, in this Institute of the USSR Adademy of Scienceswas-blis- era. And this message goes Well beyond the day-to-day tered by the party's Central Conynittee for failing to problems of getting the last report published, meeting Carry out its directives Well;a portion of the complaint the next deadline, preparing for the next conference, or was concerned not only with the fact that the Institute whatever. If we take theoviet case seriouslyand we had given "extremely little attention. . to metho-, mustwe have a chance to ask ourselves all of the fun- gi dologY of long-range planning and social and eco- NO. 4 / 164 176 nomic forecasting," but alshat it had done "insuffi- 4. While holding deeply to his belief that bourgeois cient work. . toexplor hekientilic groundlessness forecasting involves blind service to a lost cause, the' of bourgeois and revisionist 'theories' in the field of Soviet forecaster attends carefully to Western studies economics." And not enough had been done by the re- and, parTicularly, Western developments in methadol- sident party organization to cultivate in the staff "the Ogy, even though the regime may not -have yet sanc- spirit of uncompromising 'struggle against bourgeois tioned their use. Most negative criticism of the West in ideology, anticommunism, and revisionism."147 While Soviet technical papers attacks not the methods, but the Romanian Apostol can needle thore "experts on the motives of the forecasters, often accusing them of 'social 'prognosis' frdm the socialist countries [who] selecting or deliberately distorting primary data in denounce the 'bourgeois:character of futurology"148_ order to project a Bright future for capitalism."' In ,a clear reference to Besiuzhev-Lana in paYticularhe any event, as indicated earlier bInlotting the citations is apparently alone in suggesting the possibility that from Bestuzhev-Lada'sWindow d Richta:sCiviliza- Western forecal* is not necessarily antagonistic to tion at the Crossroads,the Soviets and East Europeans Communism, andmay even have a positive value.. All pickUp the Western literature within about two years. Soviet writers who coqsider the question disagree. In contrast, forecasters in the,,,,Westor at least in the Against this background, Western forecasters can United States--seem to be totally oblivious to the 'hardly take comfort in the fact that Western analysts Communist liter 2 site the fact (hat much of have proclaimed the Cold War to be over or that the this material is translated. In e ect, therefore, the prospects of a higher synthesis between capitalism and Soviet specialist has an especially free good: Western CoSinuniim are good. A recent Polish paper states the developments are put at his disposal at no cost; he can Communistviewpointplainly:"thetheoryof (and ,does) use them to advance Comnism; and. convergende, according to which because of teehnolog- . Western futurevesearclie2 neither icnoCwhat is hap- ical progress coun6ies with different social systems pening nor, bother tetak advantage of research devel- ..... ctinvetge n- the development, s simply opmien s inthe ommu istcountries. ,t I 3. Not only does the Soviet forecaster kn w Where 5: e Soviet fore er and the Western futures he is going and who his intellectual, opponents are, but researcher, armlike in being ser-'rows abodt their work 2 he also has a better idea than his Western counterpart and'hightY optimistic about the future,153 Soviet of what steps he must e in the shore term to improve optimism is expressed in various ways (though always, . his preisiont Western orecasters, lacking any sense it should.be repeated, 'in the context of.the-doctrine). . ,of iinate goals, tend o be problem-oriented, and Thus, Stforov:writes, It must be borne ittinind that ' probleins tend to come to them one by one, without the potentialities of ,science and technology are practi- any underlying structure. As we have seent is much cally inexhaustible. Only.those predicfions [of new de- different in ,the USSR. Keenly appreciMe 'of the velopments in these areas] cannot berealizea whichare dangers of "running too far aliead,"150 Soviet special- in conflict with the laws of the evolution of nature, ists'are working steadily away at an increasingly well- society, and thinking:," 154 And Insofar a 'forecasting 4' defined set of problems that includes de4loping nen; itself is concerned, these is tit' into eral theory of management, a system of "continuous" 'Theforecasts made bynineteenthcentury forecasting, SOEF, and OGAS. They are training fore- scientists for the beginning of the twentieth cen- casters; they are laying in the hardware and software tury were 80 percent correct. Many scientists of they will reqUire; and they are woragonagic theo- the latter half of the twentieth century estimate ' retical issues. Western writers, including many who that the accuracy of foyeasts mackIcrr the begin- , have been cited in.these pages, seem to relish pointing Wining of the twenty.first century-has increased to out the bureaucratic and conceptual blunders ofSoviet 90-95 pet-bent. This.be4ief is based ()tithe fact that and analysts as they move toward these objec- . planners the basic laws of sciOifie-tectinical progress haver tives. These writers have prekunably not yet noticed 4:1::been discovered, practical methods of forecastine° whathaPPensin, say, the United States. In any event, have been developed, acid prOblems,which can be they assuredly "miss - the point that the Soviets have o solved successfully 8y scientists of.vai-tous enunciated their,goals,and are proceeding toward trieS'haviTheen defitied.W them, even if tikesteps forward and one step backward -410t, are required. Weshould keep - constantly in ming, as Quite possibly, ,tiowevei, there is A differencebetden the Soviets do, the success,, of the GOELRO plan for East andWest in their oPtimiiin: the Soviefii electrification. because of what.he foiecast-s; the Westerner,despite 7 . ,; . f... -... .tttkO what he fores§sts. The Westerner needsto have some- , f however, on an issue that transcendsforecasting: the ..,1 thing better; the Sovietalready has it in the doctrine. understanding we have of the CommuniSt vision,its- .v 6. Finally,lhe Soviet fOrecaster is notat all adverse structure, and its dynamics. Fred Polak hasconcertitd, to participating in international symposia,andsurveys, himself more than anyone else, perhaps,*tht role and perhaps even in international forecastingstud- of-images' theture in_determiAnt lc .valuego, priorities, a ies.156 It clod apt matter, of-course, whetherthe non- tion. We ne-anot-cottcur--. with his, '.-- Communist' participants understand why.But they entire ansis of this subject to agree that one of his should know- some of the groundrules.Bestuzhev- conclusions is especiallytermane here, and it is offered Lida indicates what theyare: II*. as the donSiusion to this chapter. ... it is both possible and necessary to carry (ma, Although much ofour thinking about the future principally seentifie debate [between Today is inevitably in terms of choosingbetween Communists annon-C,ommunists], compare the two competing iages of the future which the one's 'position,and persuade by well-fouhded East and the West ave set befdreus, we inustin 1. argumentation....Soviet scientists categori- the king run pass bOndthe'se dichotomies which , . ; cally refuse attempts to use the problems ofsocial paint the future in b ack and',white. NeitherRussia nor America --alonican spawn the future. iThe ,,, 6prognostics. for pro-capitalist propagandapur- poses, that is, attempts to present/ as scientific image of the future at its .best, has alwaysilven,, ',J prognoses the simple utopias of "eternal capital- universal idehara ter, a viSioto serve and foster. V ism.'' But they are preparedto continue the dia- the growth Of all mankind. .. AVision /of the logue with Western !the-Marxist scientist.about . future which fall 'short oft is uniersality will in the whole series of questions Which worri the end leavet4earthSmokingrum. The same s mod-' ) -ow,* ern man, fro toot a the fight againq air and Waer p`b1; cannot serve simultaneously as -sword and I utIon and ere ion, to, the struggle aglinst poverty, ploughshare, and thescope of the vision will hunge,r, and, diseases, for disarmament andpeace .determine the final use to which the toolis all over the world and fora brighter future for put'. ....Our first challenge is to examine the 6 , - ..rriankind.157 . - . .. basic foundations of our eicisting visions,to ana- 5 lyze their contents, scope, and direction. Analyzed When all is said, i.t is probably in thisarea that the . in ttiese terrnshow did the Russian go so far .greatest opportunity for establishing usefulcom- astray? Why are the traditionally full-speed ahead munication, between forecasters in thetwo social _ Americans bogging Own? Are they indeed systems can be found. bog- ging down? These two ,questions lead straightinto two major projects which social Implicit in these final paragraphs--4hd, indeed, sosticemust undertake, the theory and dynamics of image Tor- throughout this chapterarea number of candidates mation and propagation, and field studies for research, The success of of.cur- 4 any of them depends, rent images of the future in action.t58 to, MI M -a 166 v. . Bi *Bagrinovsky, K. A., "A System of Models for:Central Plannine in Nigel ilaw_46' red.), International Because most of the sources read in preparing this Seminal on Tend. -in' Modelling, , chapter are of interest only in the present context, we Venice,December 13-18, 1971 (New: York: Sprin- provide here a separate bibliography. Only a few basic ger-Verl4g,1973):pp. 21-30. . items (preceded ky an asterisk) are iiicluded also in the Baranov, E. F., "Tsre-WrAspects of Modeling National- general bibliography at the end of the book. Items Economic Processes" ("Novye aspekty,modelirova- translated-into English for the purposes of this essay nia narodnokhozyaistvennykh protsessov:): Jzves- are indicated by following the English title with the, tia AN SSS RSeria Ekbnomicheskaya, No,4 (1972), origirial Russian in parentheses.* pp. 125-128. Aganbegyan, A. G., "Progress in Maria_ent and the Becker, Abraham S., The Future of Input-Output in' Management of Progress," Current Abstracts of the Soviet Planning, Paper ,P-3206 (Santa Monica, Soviet Press, Vol. 2, No. 7 (September 197), p. 7. e , Calif.: Thet Rand. Corporation, August '1965), Aganbegyan, A. G., "Knowledge plus Skills," Curr,ent Belik, Y., "Scientific Forecasting:in,Long-Term Plan- Digest of theSoviet Press, Vol. 24, No.21 (June 21, ning" ("Nauchnoe prognozirOyanie 'perspektiv-. 1972, pp. 10-11,. nom planirovanii"), Planovoe Khozyaistvo,. No. 5 0 Agnew,Irene,"UkraineCoordinates Economic (May 1973), pp. 24-35. Cybernetics Work," Soviet Cybernetics Review Bestuzhev-Lada, I.V., "How To Foreiast World's (July 1970), pp. 29-31. Future: Asimay Disputed," The Current Digest of Agnew, Irene, "Renamed Irfsiltute ITo, Specialize in the Soviet, Press, Vol. 19, No. 20 (June 1967), pp. Operations Research," Soviet Cyberneties Review 9-10. (September 1970), pp. 35-36. Bestuzhev-Lada, I. V., ."Social Forecasting," Soviet Amalrik, Andrei, Will the Soviet Union Survive Until Cybernetics Review,- Vol. 3, No. 5 (May 1969), pp. 19$4?(New York: Har4er and Row, 1970). 55-59. Amosoff, Nikolai; Notes from the Future(New York: *Bestuzhev-Lada, I. V. "ForecastingAn Approach Simon and Schuster, 1970). to the Problem of the Future," International Social Science Journal, Y ol.21, No. 4 (1969), pp. 5267534. *Amosov, N. M., "The Main,Prolflems of Forecasting Complex Syitems," Soviet Cybernetics Review, *Bestuzhev-Lada, 1. V., "Social Prognostics Research Vol. 3, No. 5 (May 1969), pp. 63-71. in the Soviet Union," in Robert Jungk and Johan Galtung (eds.), Mankind 2000 (London: Allen and Andreev, I.A.,"S6' ience apd SocialProgress," Unwin, 1969), pp. 299-306. Abstracts of Soviet and East EurOpean Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3 (January 1973), p. 115. Beituzhev-Lada, I.V., "A, School of the Future," Soviet Cybernetics Review, VOL 4, No: I (January *,Apottol,, Pavel/"Marxism and the Structure-of the . . 1970) p 82. - . FutUre," Futures, Vol. 4, No. 3 (September 1972), pp-. 201-2 Bestuzhev-Lada, I.V., and D. Yerinolenko, "The ,' Scientific Forecast of International Relations in the, Aralcelyan, A. A.,.and V. S. Dadayin, "Experience of Light of Lenin's Teaching," International Affairs =Model Usage in Lang-Term Economic Forecast" (Februaryrilerch 1970), pp. 93-99. ("Opyt ekonomilso-matematicheskaio modelirova- nia dolgosrochriom prognoziro,)anii"), Vestnik *Bestuzhev-Lade, I. 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Communism (MoscoVv: Noveisti13.ress Agency Pub- 1lishing House, 1969). Katsenelinboygen, Functioning of ; Socialist- Economy" ("Optimaltibe funktsirovanie Lin Shao-chi, How To Be a GoCominunisi(Pek- scasialisticheskoi ekonomiki "), Vestnik AN SSSR ing:"Foreigh Language Press,.4 59): ..Seria Ekonomicheskaya, No. 1(1973), pp. 135-137. Linstone, Harold A., "The- Third World Future -Khadhaturov, T. S., "Questions of Long-Term Plan- Research Copferehce," Technological Forecasting ning and ForicaStifig".("Voprosy dolgoscrochnogo © and Social Change, -Vol. 4, No. 3(19"Zirpp ,plaiiirovania .:I- pro' nOzirovania7);Vestnik. AN 240-242. 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I4-I9...... - Soviet Planning and Incentwes, Soviet Economic Naryshev, G A and L P Ihdovich, 2'Forecasting, Prospects fortheSeventies Commiuee Print of the the Main Technical-Econijnic Indies of,n Ins%tii- Jcunt Economic Conlnuttee( U S congress (Wash.- ment Factory," 'Siye: Jns:rumensWsonand Con- uigton, D C U S Goveriiment Printing-Officc, irol No 9 (Septemb17l), pp 82-84 June 27, 1973) pp 11-38 1Criis - North, Gary, The in Soviet Econonc Plan- &lsaifl,, 4Ioward S9c:alim aild Etucs (New Yot ning," Modern Ag4 Vol14, No I (Winter Intetnatiohâlub1ishers, 194 1969-70), pp 49-56 ( Semenov, ii N 'The 'WZrld áthe F,uture,"Bq&un Osipova, I, "The Cybernetics of Nature," Current oJhe Alomtc Sc:ejjszs Vøl 24) No February Digest of the Soviet Press Vol 24, No '5(Marcli r, 1964) pp 1( 15 r i-..- 1972' 6 18 .. - .-' Seryo'liUSSR,-4)SSc$et1fic and.Tehnii..- Ozhegov, Y, "Jhe Struggle-for the Future of Man- £ooperaci'on,Jnr'ernananalffau'J'4o 5 (May kind" ("Borba za budushchee cheloechestva ), 1973) pp 8t.-83 : Mirovaya ekonomika I mefhdundrodn d'oznbshe- ;. 1'; ''' ) nsa 110 9 (September 1972), 26-36 -$hataltn, S, 'New1etho4s, New Mean "'tuijnt\ '...Dsges of the Soviet fr"ess V.Z4;No çAugus Penskovskiy, Oleg, The Penskavskn Pape(Gardej I6J9ff2),p$. a . City, N Y Doubf&Iay and ompany IncI .Sved1ov,',"Search P Polanyi, Michal 4The Magiëof Marxism,i F]flcoun pp,92Th93.. z-'. - ter Vol 7,No6(Decem,er 1956), pp 5-17 'c . Popov, L B,"Predrcton ofulfillmelt ofh Pian for StanevLV' Sbkoyànd K And T!ath Istrtunent Production," Soviet .Insirnentanon- dIel .*Nd Mo,he c an4 Control No 8 Augusfl 971), pp 67-69 - $a1ysistid Fo tingii1Coner Qadd pzt the fmç 4êt," A?'.s:ractso) Soiréz and'..Ensz Pospe}o, G S"Control System Design Theoiy," F1'uröjllan n11eV9f 3, No Soviet Cybernetias Review (November l9'OJ, pp- 55e".. -' ' - - 23-Z5 F'- -. ,' StiekovS SStudiesfihe'.,.,,ob1c'ins QfEconoc Richta R, Civilization at ike CrosSroads (Prague- '-otesting" ("Nuhnye' isslcdovania prThle-'- 'International Xrtsandience Press, 1969) ' maèkon.pnhichOgo - 4'SSSR.erskonJrt1ieskQya-; No 24'72),' Richta,Radovan and Ota,Su1c,Forccãpu)$4hdtheA. I356 . 'Sceiiific'and Technological Reólutorer '' :P tlSc:eiceJaurna1, Vol 21, to Ap h ie:. gra TihnQI.IraI- reasifg,. Y$L. 1(1 969k pp7-- J; ; *Richta, R, et al.? "The Perspective of theScintifiç -1D5-1O -:-- .:A -' .4- and Technological Revotutian," in Robert Junk _ 31 - ... ' and JohanGaltun8 (eds),Mankind 2090 (London T tidireseaf onference, Fuiwe Allenand Unwid, 1969),pI98i254 - Vo4, Nøefber 1ø2)p438O32 Rolbiecki W, 'Prognostication and Ir4gnoetp}- j ogy," in Rbea Jungk and Jolan Galtung teds), Veieteky ,-i U.'Mathen*al-sMethqdin jio---' Mankind 2001 (London Allen and (Inwin, 1969), ahg' Abstrqqs' of So'vset ahd E Eur&an pp 278-285 '.'3udieJ, V,ojJZ, I (Jufr 1972), pp 121-L'2 - ' .-:;. £ . -- ill 4 4 - J _( , - - P .i ' -. . -1,V S Yermolenko; D., ."Scientific and Technol gical Revo- Zykov, U. A., "On Certain Principles of the Economic lution and Problems of Forecastin oreign Pol- Forecasting of-Scientific and Technological Pro-, icy," 'International Affairs (Oct r .1970),. pp. gress" nekotorykh printsipakh 28-30. kogo prognozirovania nauchno-tekhnicheskogo "Your Questions about Commu sm," USSR: Soviet progressal, Izvestia AN SSSRSeriaEkonomiches- Life Today: No. 12. (99) (Deceniber 1964), entire kaya, No*. 3 (1973), pp; 4040: issue. 24th Congress of the CommUnist Party of theoviet I '4 Zhamin, 'V., "Forecasting the Level of Education," Union, March 30 April 9,-1971i Documents. (Mds- . Problems of Economics, Vol, 15, No. 11, (March >eow: Novosti Press' Agency Pultlishing House, 197), pp'. 73-91. 1971). 4 x. ' ' sk I am. , indebted to Koit Ojamaa, formerly with the Department of nguistics of the University of Connecticut, for these translations, , s well as for his assistance in tracking dciwnand helping to organize 1 - jme' of ihe literature. ' " ,t 4. ', 4. a' A a 0 : , . s 0 /' FOOTNOTES The seco d point is not mealt to be .facetious. Where can one 7 I. V. Lenin, The Teachings of Kr1 Marx (New York: Interna- find, for e pie, even a single'base in which a 'Communist- has tional Publishers, 1930), p. 3 acknowledge the validity of any evidence or any argument offered by a pon-Communist that would overturn a "Jaw" of dialecticalor 8 History of the Cbintpun'Party of the Soviet Union (Bolshev- historical materialism? Surely not in formal written.confrontations; iks): Short Course (New YorInternational Publishers, 1939), p. as witness the rejoinder by I. V. Kuznetsov to A. J. Ayer in Problems 355. This extraordinary' hie' shouldof be dismissed as still of Philosophy (Voprosy Filosofii), No. -1 (1962), on the issue, of another abheration of Stalini. It r ns today as a vital part of whether Philosophyincluding dialectical materialism--can be a ibe Communist philosophical an& 'cal outlook. Wp find, for science. The exchange is reprinted in Soviet Studies in Philosophy, *example, that Brezhnev, in his "Reportpf the Central Cowmiuee" to Vol: I ,No. I (Summer 1962), pp. 14-36. the Twenty-Fourth Congress, stated, "Comrades, oUr Partyis a party of scientific'communism. It is steadfastly guided oy Marxist- 2 Frederick Engels, Ncialism: Utopian and ScietitYlc (New York: Leninist science, which is the most advanced,revolutionary science International Pithlishers,'1935), pp. 70-71. of modern times, and does everything forlts further developMent. 3 "Excerpts from New Communist Prolthm," St. Louis Post- Theoretical understanding of the phenomena of social life and of its Dispatch (Jul), 30, 1961), p. main trends enables the Part? to foresee the course of social pro- asses, work out acdrrect political line and avoid errors and subjecti- 4 V. 1. Lenin, Sotsial-Demokrat (January 31, 1917); quoted in vistie decisions." [24th Congress of the Community Party of the Nathan-sLeites, A Study of Bolshevism (Glencoe, Ill.: The Press Soviet Union, March 30 -April 9, 1971: Documents (Moscow: Press, 1953), ps. 81. Novoste Press Agency Publishing House, 1971), p. 121. Thisvolume- 5 Lenin, Pravda (May 9, 1918); quoted in Leites,,op., cit p. 81. Will be cited hereafter as 24th Party Congress Documents.] Leites provides many similar quotations on this point (pp. 79-83). It 9 Lenin,Speech of December 23, 1921; quoted in Leites:op. cit., p. is thus noteworthy, perhaps, that the draft Program presented at the - Twenty-Second Party Congress (fn. 3) assertedthat "the U.S.A., the strongest capitalist power, is past its zenith atta.s entered thestage ,10 Liu Shao -chi, How To Bea Goad Communist (Peking: Foreign of decline." Languagps-Press,16.4, p. 38. -..r In the Soviet Union, Malenkov was the first major leaderto II Nikita Khrushchev (1958), as quoted in Moshe Decter (ed.); declare that another world war might mean "the destruction of world The Profile of CoMmunist4, rev.-ed. (New Yhrk: Collier Books, 1961), p. 33. civilization" (Pravda, March 13,1954), but he was apparently fon'ed -;; , II . by others in the Presidium to modify his position shortly thereafter. 12 G. VI kozlov, Questions of EconoNics (April 1952), as quoted By April 1954 his position was that a nuclear war would mean only in Ralph Remit, "The Cloudy Future of Commun0," The Futur- "the end of the capitalistic system." In any event, it was Khrushchev ist, vol. iy (Qecember -1970), p. 214. who first argued that full -scale war between the capitalist and social- 1st systems may not be inevitable; "peacefulcompetition,"he main- 13 St. Onus Post' Diipatch (Jely 30, 1961), p. 6D. Incidentally,t he tained in his public statemenikcould be sufficient to ensure3he "complete" triumph of socialism in the Soviet Union listd first been worldwide victory of 6mM/ilium. Within independen(tes, proclaimed in 1936; see Histoiy .of the CPSU (Short Course), lip. , 319, 342. moreover, the establishment of Communismcould be achieved with- . out civil war; that is, the "revolution" need not be ilalEnt. This left 14 Engels, op. cit.,4.72-73, These assertions may be usefully the colonial states, and here, at least, it has beensserted that "as compared with the answers given in tesurve?of a handful of Soviet long imperialism and colonialism exist, war f national , citizens, all of them born after the death of Lenin, trfthe question, tio'n and revolutionary wars are unavoidable."[ V. D. SokoloVs/: "How do you visualize communism?" While mention wts made of kii, Sovie? Military Strategy, translated- with 'analysis by H. technological advances, especiallythoie That would reducephysical t4. Dinerstein, L Goure, and T. Wolfe,.Repoli R-416- (Santa Mon- labor or increase longevity, the dominaniheme was of a tisne when ica, Calif.: The Rand*Corpomtion, April 1963), p. 281; italics in the "human relations. will have changed, hen man.will be free of original.] In contrast, the Chinese have not publicly abandoned the "mate rial,wo rries" and thus "abie to devote hintself fully to his spirit- doctrine of an inevitable cohflid betieen Communistand -. non- And' interests,"Irthen th social situation" wilt have developed to the Communist states. Indeed, Chinese Vita premier Teng Esitto-ltrg the: "will shim everyone full rein to deVel op his creative pote made the astonishing statement in Pekingibn May 25;1974, tharthe tial. e Future ,We'See," Soviet Life, No; 3 (March 1972)b pip. - ebntention betiteen the superpowers [i.e., the United Mates and the 30 -31], theme can betracedfar back as 1134irithe writings of USSR] is groiving more sod more intense and is-bound to leadeven - Engels. Somewhat different is this .opinion: "lbe fifty-year expo- tually to war. Either they will-fight each others, or the peopjewill rise rience,of the existence of the socialislitatewith its successes and fail- in revolution," Both the Russians and the Chinese have proclaimed urea, itevictories and difficulties, will became, kbOieve, the, (owl that if wareomes,-dteY at least will not be the,firit to attack. This is - flop on which one cryt build the system; sof the futule life 'Of° ,...,141' good Leninlant burit is impossible to to howseriouslyjt should bet, mankind . The union off' people, free from the operation. of taken. There is, for:exathple, evidence that afth very time' when, chance, will, of course; not be free from fresh eonfiicts and contradie- Marshall SOkolovskii and his associates 'reji'tiring the book the naturenatureof which cannot beforeseen, and It is pointlessto - cited above,--Khrushchev was not only Zver develo first- guess at. If we,nevertheless try to ilia-gine the people of the [distant] . strike capability, but -"yes fully prered t certainty ' future [we' shOuld dp so by trying to] bringout the best in the twen- regarding CoMmuniat beliefs and jitionskthis question tieth cenitimmstn. One Of the decisive ('actors in this process will be -4eglains high, a fact indicated in theUni Sit* by tlierlisthission libeiation of the creative blethent in man. tive,wark ennb- , began4iiew (after SALTon targeting doetrinefer'stratego bles a man, raises him above selfish interests, makps him better ancr, ;Wail) n s. more ffie. I Coil* that when I think of the future I think above all ) . . r 9 ,r4"-/tra-^ . .. of a life in which every one will be able to deter ne his vocation and appliances of foreigners, their machinery an arits,their vessels, follow it." [Daniil Gram, "A Journey intoth Future," in Robert and carriages, are one and all deriv at a knowledge of astron- Magidoff (ed.), Russian Science Fiction, 1969 (New York. New omy and mathematics . .. . Thy hinesars not 1 i tenor in clever:- Yoq University Pres& 1969), pp. 16 -17.] A socidlogiit interviewed ness and intelligence'to the min of the WC-and if i astronomy in the Soviet Life survey reported that' a study of his, some 2,000 mathematics, in the examination nreauips andeffes (in nat his- respondents were asked what they "personally need lo be happy." By tory, manufactures, etc.), in the fabrication dame es and successful far the largest percentage (77) gave an answer that would perhaps imitation of models, and in predigtion of the future, studeMs will so have both delighted and dismayed the classic Marxists. To have an earnestly apply themlelves ;,s to posseSs themselves of alf\secret absorbing job." ' ,s\4<' 4 China will then be strong of-her own strength." The government . . accepted this argument, despite violent'opposction by those who 15 "Through [the] early years Russia endured because she lived in believed that a proficiency in the philosophy of Confuciin wasffi- the future. The glorious life-to-be would eompensate her for the drab cleat for educated men. The parallels seem clear. life -that -was. Agnew political system, a new freedom, a.newemanci- pation for the individual; a new and speeded industrialism, and a 17 Here and in what follows, we shall use the phrase "the doctrine" new distribution of the products of industry on a more equitable as a shorthand for terms likeMarxism,""chaleclical matenalisin," basisall these were fruits to be reaped in the filture." So Wrote the and "historical materialistn" in order to avoid bogging down the dis- "Red Dean of Canterbury," Hewlett .Johnson, The Soviet Power. cussion in theoreticaniceties. As mentioned before. however, these The SocialistSixthof the World (New York: International Publish- terms are not interchangeable; readers should thus be sensitive to ers; 1940), pp.86-87. Many similar statements can, of course, be possibly significant shifts in reference. found; like the futyre outcome to which they point, they also have a peculiar timelessness about them, sqthat they are equally accurate in "1 Needless to say, there is an ambiguity here. If Communism were 1920, 1940, 1960, or 1980. to be achieved next year, then "short term" might mean "next 16 Referenc will occasionally be made 'indite following pages to month," and the alternative steps to be foie,gasted and evaluated the work of fArecasters in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, would concern those over the coming 30 days. As.the attainment of who have at times-adopted attitudes toward problems of futures Communism. recedes into a more distant future ("sooner or later"), studies which differ from those of their Soviet counterparts, though .so the period that is "short term" grow. s. It may be that this ambiguity usually with the insistende that these attitudes are neverthelesscon- has helped permit some Soviet forecasters to begin speaking of to sistent with Marxist doeirme. Notably missing fr m this discussion forecasting and to evince an imsrest in futures research. If are references to ideas from the Peoples Repub ebf China and its however, the obvious danger arises that the forecas0 risk being ideological allies. One cannot help regretting that the Chinese have accused -of imilicitly asserting that theachie=taf Communism not as yet seen fit tQparticipate, if only as critics of the "bourgeois must be put farther d'ff. West," ih"the open discussion and development of futures research, , . 19Leites's first hook was The Operational,Code of the Politburo especially because even the scant evidence 'provided by Chinese (New York: McGraw -Hill Book Co.; I 2.51).,It was followed in 1952, English-language ptiblicatiops suggests that the Peoples Republic of Leites, Alitudv of Bolshevism (Cited in fn.4), which focused prim- China (PRC) views forecasting in a unique way. For example, unlike arily on ennunciating the portions of the code that concern the rela- other Communist countries, the PRC almost never refers in its tionships between the Party and the world at large. A liter bookby public statements to "he future";.while there is an unmistakable Leites and Elsa Bemaut, Ritual ,.ofifLiquidation: The Case of the futures orientation, thePhpise is conspicubusly avoided. Similarly, Moscowrials(Glencoe,111.1: The Free Pres1; 1954)foted on the the PRC almost never refers to:what-will" occur; atitemeritS co as itioverns internal party relations at the highat love e talk about what "is" the case (and, thus, what ne correoted en'te series is based on an analysis of the.papers. and spec hes of or built vpbn), and sometimes what "must" be e case (and, thus, L eni and Stalin, though literally hundreds of other sou ces,are how things can someday be expected to materialize). Forecasts are co dered. , so rare as t cibe nonexistent, even when banal. (China Pictorial. No. 8 [1968]Rcarries an artiste on mi. 38 -39 entitled, "A New;Peik in Com- Leites emphasizes that'"you cannot predict the score in a game puter Technology," in the course!foriVhicd reference is made to frw its rules; (but .neither] canyou predict it'without knowing the.. "Chairman Mao's brilliant prediction, 'The Chinese people have Ares "including the rules for ing rules. He points to fourlint- high'aspirations, they have ability, and they will certainly catch up -"itations of the code; (I) it inter*xes serious statements with an with and surpass advanced world4yels in the notttoo` distant unknown amount of propaganda" (1 drawback that can, how- future.' "This lithe only mentiondf a prediction or of formatting in ever, be solved by testing forecasts derived from the code against severalyearewofth of issues of this magazine.) Since the Chinese are actual practice), (2) thcode is "highly ambiguous";. (3) it contains committed to planninx,itowever, they are undoubtedly engaged in many contradictory statemen(as does Communist doctribeitself), forecasting. nut how is this work organized? What methods are and (4) it isincompletein tiletense that "kis far.frontaffir(ning rules .4i being. used?, Wh*subjectsare being investigated? How are he' of conduct for all important occasions and on all imporqnt mat- - results integrated into tfie planking process? Answers to these and ters." (Study of Bolshevism, pp, 17-18.) It Might be noted that th other questions are difficult to find; moreover, there woulciseemto imperfections can be eliminated or reduced, in Leites's opinion,, be no awareness' within the PRof the worldwide futures move,7"' through formal content analyses. But the very task of tryingsqestab- ments The interaction that might flow from such an awarenesshas- fish an operational code might best be seen as a kind of speculative -thus, unfortunately, been precluded. Yet as a sign that this aloofness inquiry that must precede anyosuchanalytis, where the.desired infor- .. may chinge, we might observe that Mao's "brilliant prediction," matiOnis slight or inaccessibleTas is the case in the inner councils of quoted above, tends merely to echo an argument that led in 1867 to any regime), creation of a code may well be all that one cap do, -And it, 1 the establishment of thefirit college in China for the study of foreign rdtty hayefousiderable value,only in,forcing the analyst or poliej- ..know;ledge. In its recommendation to the Imperiafovernment for maker- to organize his impressions. Cf. Alexander L. George,. The ..i .:, the creation of such an institution:the "Foreign Board" iPeking "OperaTional Code": 4NeglectedApproach To the Study, ofPolfitical . made these key points. "It has occurred to your itervants t'hat the. Leaders ,ofd DecisicOlalcing. Rosearch 14einorapdum I 4:2 -..,,.. - .a - '., 1Pi : ..ir , , P ..._ , -Ribi-5427 -PR (Sant Monica, Calif.: The Rind Corporation, 'ision, thi one embodied in the manuscript version of Nikplai Anto- tember 1967). . 0 soffs fit onat Notes from the Future (published ina sanitized 21. Except .as notekltherwise, the items conside here are abridge ent by Simon and SchuSteri1970), involved the world as abstracte(or inferred) rom the discursive presentatio in-"Study it wo appear to a person who had laced in anabiosisin the of BolsshewsneChapteI and IV. late60's and awakened 50 yeari or so la er. The manuscript didnot survive the state's censor, but the reason was not that thestorywas; 23 The importance-of the belief in "neaecidents"while it admits filled with fantastic technology. Rather, itwas thatwhen the hero D of several interpretations,and a genuine indearminancyLeannot be a was revived he did not4nd a "happy all-Communist world(."-The his- overestphasized. According to Meyer, the phrase is "constantly tdry of the manuscript is told in George St. George,1991," Look,, heard in the Parties"; he finds its classic expression in Engels's . Lud- Vo1.14, No. 14 (July 14,1970), especially pp. 55-58. . Feuerbach. which Meyer quotes as concluding: "Historical events. . appear on the whole to be .. governed by chance. But 26 History of rile CPSU(Shorr Course), P. 355. In this contexitis `.where on the surface accident holds sway, there actually it is always worth recalling Engels's comment on religion and philosophy, all of . , governed by;inner, hidden laws, and it is only a matter of discovering which, he said have a stock of "bunk",t "The history of Science isthe these laws." [See Frank S.- Meyer, The Moulding of Communists history of the gradualelearing away of this nonsense,or rather of its (New York: Hariourt, Brace and Company, 1961), p.p. 58-61 and replacement by fresh but always lest absuld nonsense."Frederick 193, fn. 13. Meyer, incidentally, outlines his own "code".--,-"''a fascinat- En es, Letter fo Conrad ScIfnidt (August 5, 1880); in Lewis ing description of how Party cadres are createdmotivated, S. and F uer (ed.), Marx and Engels: Basic Writingson Politics and Philo- . exploited] Ophy (Garden City, N.Y.: Afichor-Books,41959), o p. 405. r., 2 One has to look outside the USSR to find a socialist forecaster 4 27 Western writers have frequently failsd toseeor to appreciate who explicitly uses. the doctrine to.argue the case for "multiple this highly optimistic motif in the party tradition and thedoctrine;r. , , futures" and the tenet that the determinism even of Ultimate out- they have preferred.to,amuse tselves with the notion that, in the sames should be understood probabilistically. The best case of this zend, the complexity of affairsththenkes it ecessary for the Soviets as start is made by Romanian Pavel "Marxism and the Struc- for those in the-Wei-to*rhuddle roug"h" --now using computers, ture of the Future," Futures, Vol. 4, No. 3 (September 1972),pp. pf course. Hence, for example, t nciful ideethat the two systems- 200-210,iThis is not to say, h6wever, that probabilistic approaches in are converging. Hence, too, thei thatwhen it comes downto ba.7. forecasting are not used or advocated in the USSR; such approaches sits in forecasting, the differehees between the systemsmust tend to ate considerechater in this chapter. disappear. For instance, we find Daniel; Bell, in his The Coming"' 24 Engels wrote in A nu-Duhrmg, "freedom of the will_.'means. Post- Industrial Se/fiery (pp. 99ff.)_trying to distinguish "three levels nothing but the capacity tp make aeillions with real knowledge of of discourse" in Soviet discuisionrof social development. the lintis p se the subject. Therefore the freer a man'§ judgment-is in relationto ,a e ' m of ofEcialideology"; kll lases pas- definite question, with so much greater necessityistbecontentof this '''-'1P'sages froth drigori-Gleze n's Tik Laws ofS6cidDevelb ent to ' judgmenrdeterrn.ined; while the uncertainty, foundedonignorance, illustrate that forma.fSONiet theorSton futqesociVchVges hope-, ,-lessly inconsistent. On the "scholarly" leVer,ligfeites t which seetnno make an arbitrary choice among many different and, views of A. -M. Rikiantsev, aieXpresSed in Ifis paper, "Social Prognostication conflicting possible decisions; shows by tlis precisely,thAt it isnot . tication and Planning in he Soviet Union," presented.in19/1? free; that it is controlled brthevery object it should itselfcontrol", at the Sixth (quoted in MeyerAo. cit., p. 57). This is the accepted doctrineof the World Congress of; Sociology ; Bell Suggesti tbat thispaper ("remar- piny; for examplel Lenin refers.to it with apprava his iFeachings kable tot its freedom frinti"tant") represents.the thinking of the of Karl Marx:- OA . managerial cOmmunists;" whoseinterest is simply in getting onwith . 17- / the difficult. j1 of foreca'sting, especially thedifficulties -of taking'. 25 In contrast, some Soviet ters of fiction and historiahs into accpunt a f 'the hard apdsoft factorS that t be conSidered made forayseach 'personal us to the author beca when trying toreclit the Pscientifielechnologica volution"7- unacceptable to the bureauc nto distinctly different alterna- about which more:la On$he thirdlevel thelevel "empirical tive futures. One especially interesting,venture, though more a call social researches"--aell reviews work oyerthe lastdecade on for reform that a forecast, is to be found in Andrei Amairik's Will the :the -occupational -divisions in t SJSSR,ointing out that some Soyiet °pion Survive .unti11984?(New York; Harper & Row,1970), Soviet sociologists have begun to qestiohe contegysrary useful- whicrplittrays a spiritually moribund Soviet regime, isolated from t ness of Lenin's,Cpn ts of the classnd o the party; pen appears to the people and from the world, seemingly incapable of infusingitself believe_th4t on the ird level, and pollably also on-the seconds the with new-life and, thus, destined to destroy itself or be *clesireyed. S -aid inereas ming to are Western notions about Worse,yet, Ainalrik's tract, which obviously could not be published . i sniq and postindustdalsocie the minuenyfanny . in the USSR, Portends global catastrophe unless certain changes of o Kul doctrine makes it imposs tionerton these levl made. (It-mikht be mentioned in pasiing that while Atimitik sees els to -y-so, or to trace out the consequences ouch beliefs"for, t le hope for the' wor14Zhesees none at all in the Work of Western --Irif-iy doctrine and kIZOloSical.dogMa,";i1e,aismis s "fatuous,'!. - - stern, who appear;iii his jUdgpient, fo-be as unlikely t6,tackle the apcliplar," andnot "serious ". theitgumtnts suggesting otherwise by, y presSing problemsof our time *asanyoifiette. Here are the con: writers 1 ,like V. Afanasyev.and 'I. V., Beatizherlada,More impor- . .-._ cluig lines from his ok: "Evideniiy, if 'futurology' had existed in tam; he shows no inclination to coider the possibility that the thr4r - "-`. -Imperial Romee, ere as we are toed, people were already erecting "levels", ni0 a ctuhily be ofapie thongh-heltinOlf provides some_ - , six-story buildings a children's merry- go-rounds weredriven by evidence/ triat they':e. T s,Glezermaystheoretkal ideas.# steam,,t he fifth century 'futurologists' would:haVe predicted for the in fact.stnkews as nfused, butlishookdoes consist of "lee- : following century the construction of twenty -story buildings and the ,tures forpost dilate stgdehts-aiNOscowniversitylind-.of the. , industnutilization of team power. As We now, knOw;hOwaver,,in ' 'PhilosophyDe yaiffient-of the Actrae Of Scial-Sciences otthe the sixth"nttfry goatsere grazing in t) Forum justas theyare Ce teal Cominitteeof the..-Common: While works later doing no , beneath, window; in thtl,.uilkige" tp71) Anotr cked-by the paify as Chniaininean ical mistaieshave:\r". _ ., ;11..0.4.4, Indeed been pOlished throughout the history of the USSR, where "Prognoses as such are of course interesting, as prognostication might we look to confirm that the party organization of this academy in a way uncovers the history of the future. But prognoses without . .,has been called down for tolerating book publication of lectures shot plans are simply pure contemplation, and plans without prior scien- through with recognizable and fatal- incdnsistencies? (Surely there tific prognoses will inevitably acquire subjective and voluntaristic . has been enough time: Glezermi's book was pub)ished in 1962i traits which cannot but affect their efficiency. This is why prognosti-, fkct. Bell neglects to mention.) Similarly, Rumiantsev may indeed cation is an organic part of the system of socialist planning." (I. V., . sPeakof the complexity of social forecasting, but he "also argues that Bestuzhek-Lada, "Social Prognostics Research in the Soviet , the basielextsof Marxism-Leninism are still.correct." Would such Union," in Robert Jungk and Johan Galtungteds.), Mankind 2000 an author, or his reviewers, fail to discern anincompatibility of views (London: Allen and Unwin, 1969), p. 300: hereafter cited as "Social if one existed? Empirical sociologists have no doubt criticized some 'Prognostics Research "] Bestuzhev-Lada is here describing the curl- of Lenin's conceptual formulations and may even have adopted rent belief in the USSR, but it accurately reflects the think* of the some notions from the West', bt,always in the context of the devel- 1920's as well. opmenf of the theory o Commii sm. Is1:11itsi:2Hone way in which 33 . V. Bestitzhev-Lada, "Bourgeois 'Fiaturology' and the Future the "science" can gr '?And a Bestuzhev- ay certainly deliver himself of a pop r aril* in the Party argot. But is thy catiVnot o ankind," Political Affairs (September 1970), p. 3/ (Hereafter designed to awaken its from our dogmatic Slumbers? citas "Bourgeois Futurology.") 14. 4 . 23 But not necessarily all of theprobabilities. The pertinent ideas Beitulev-Lada, "Bourgeois FuturolOgy,"p. 37. are summed up in this remark by Lenin: "In order to learn to swim 31 C. G. Strumlin, 4conomIc Lift (April 2, 1927), as quoted in Y.. one must go into the water. There is no battle in this world where all Belik, "Scientific Forecasting in Long-Term Planning" (:Nauchrroe Probabilities are known beforehand" (Zvezda!April 1,1912; quoted prognozirovanie v perspektivaoin 'planirovanii"),..Ptanovoe' Kho- in Leites, op. cit., p. 88).. - zyaistvo, No. S (May 1973), pp. 28-29: Belik also quote stisallit as 29 Roy A. Medvedev, Let History :lake: The Origins jndConse-. having said, "Our plans are not plan-forecasts; there plan- . . . quences of Stalinism (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 19.72), pp.74-75.. directives." . The quotation from Wells is from his Russla in the Shadows (1921). 36 I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada, "How to Forecast the World's Future. $ 3°Julian Huxley, 'A Scientist among the Soviet's (New York: Asimov Disputed," The CurrimiTigest of the Soviet Press, Vol. 19,' Harper & Brothers Publishers, 1932), pp. 58-59. Like many otii No. 20 (June` 1967), p. 9. (Hereafter cited ass"How To Forecast the worki from the same period, this book succeeds in capturing the pos- Worlds Future.") _ itive side of theory, intention, and accomplishment in the,USSRbut 31 V. V. Nalfmov, "From Diagnosis to Forecast,"Zreante-si46. it is extremely naive or ignorant about the negative side. Tore/cam- 11 (1972), as quoted in Belik,'op. Ix 25. $ pie, Huxley remarks otra pleasant rest 'Rollie at Gorky fOiWorkers, but he fails tomention the slave-labor camp nearby in SorniOva;lie is MedvecleLet1HistoryJudge, P. 331. This 33remarkable book, pleased to Ne that the maitjhoum penalty for murders 10 years' written by a loviet citizen whoconsicars himself a Marxist.,reninist, imprisonment, but he,seerdunawareptat the then'tandard sentence details the horrors of Stalinism, and should be read in its etitirety for for "counter-revolution activity= was 25 years; and so on.) the many insights it provides into the characterof iiiskiint.ionsand peciplethat believe they have the truth a know what savficesare .31 Hewlett Johnson (op! ett p. 86)11-aces the origins of the Five required to achieve it. It is no small matter to observe thatthe book is Near Plans to a '1920 iettei from Lenin to a M. Krzhiztveovsky,' intended as an efahoration of the few wqrds quoted here. then chairman Of the State Planning Committee (Gosplan), mwhich he wrote: "Couldn't you product 3, plan (not. a technical but a politi- 39 Medvedev offers on pit 102-109 an aco.n.tint,of how and with . cal schltie).which would be utillerstood by the proletariat? For. whit success the first Five:Year-Plan wieeirried out. He Points to instance, in 10 years (or 5 ?) we shall build 20 (or 30 or 50?) power sta- Stalin's Mai, when informed that even the "base-line" goals could tions coveritig\thEcountry with a network of such stations, each with not be met, that they be increased: and tie shows how the data a radius of operation of say 400 versts (or 200 if we are unable to revealed to,the world about. the accomplishments of the plan were -achieve more) .. .. We need Such a nton at once to give the masses a 'distorted to..indiAtelete success. Medvedev CcIncligles that shining unimpeded prospect to work for." At the 8th Congress of because of Sitilifs "incommence,': Idventuritm," "poor leader," Soviets (December 1920); Lenin made his famous statement:"Wit h- ship," and "gigantomania," the costsof industrial developinent were out a plan of electrification we cannot tackle thework of a {ual much higher than they would hav been."with.mdre rational plan- struction. We need this prograinme, as the fit rough dra, to be ning and leadership." He also cites ills:just appraisal" offered in the placed before the whole of Russia, of an economic plan, callated Soviet Historical Encyclopedia: "Stalin and his entourage often did ahead4or at least ten-years and showingthe way now to give not give due consideration to real possibilities; to an excessiveklegree in actual fact the economic basis that is required by Commu- ;hey intensified tempos.of industrial constructiorrtffat,tveretho high to begin with:" While Medvedev and the nism". . Commti* in'Soviet government plus the electrifica- neyelopedia are 'certainly right, it should be noted that, on ground of thuperkonal code, tion of the whole country, Johnson, 'along with Soviet proggan- , they cart be right only inretrospect; as me Toned corlier,lhe tempo distrtoda9,quote'sH. G. Wells's reaction to this idea: "Lem; who f .,development toward. large gbals is like other gootorthodox Marxist denounces all Utopians, has sue; yen to be one, of the ithpredictables. '',;" " cumbed at lase& a. Utopia,theUtopia of the electricians . ...Can one imagine a more courageous project in a vast flatland of forest *3 Report of the16th \Paity Congress (1937),s quoted in Belik, and illiterate peasants, with.= water power, with no technical s p. 31. 4 j' . ..I,, hVailable, and with trade and industry at the last gasp? ..: I ca not* . 41 See Leites and Bernaut, op. cll., especially Chap. see anything of the sort happening in this dark crystal of Russ" , but "The Attie of theforecasts ",)and Chap. 12 ("Predicting Is Preferring"). this-little man at the Kremlin can." As johnsoh delights i ointing - ...... -:- '. out Wells was far from lying the only Westerner who nitnder.: . UV. 1. Mezhlauk, thelong -timepIt'aiAlia:RA Gosptan, was's' ..,4! stood the nature and potential of the regime. arrested and shot in 1937; Ms successof,a. I. sin irtror: ec Lao --ison * . . "r" 1 rtrorr'? . later the same year; and Smirnciv's successor, N. A. Voznesensky, Guschev,Report from the XXI Century:12, Soviet Scientists,on was removed from office in 1948 and shot in 1950,,As an indication Science and, Technology in ,th, Future,2nd ed. (Moscow: Sovets- that few such victims really knew what was happening, but believed kaya Rossiya, 1963); G. M. Dobrov and A. Golyan- Nikolsk', that the problem, whatever it was, would be settled properly, Med.' The, Centuryof ,GreatI Expectations:The Fate' of Scientific- vedev (p. 402) tells us that just before 1vrezthauk was shot, hewas TechnologicarProgress in the XX Century (KievNatikdv; ddltika, in his prison cell to complete a manuscript entitle& "On 1964); aid I. Lada and 0. Pisarzhevsky, PlanniandWayi To Improve It. Contours of the Future (Moscow: Zname, 1965. 4/ One of today's most prominent Soviet authoritieson , NotablyThe Future of Science (MoscOw:Znanie, 1966), featur- forecasting, V. M. Glushkov;commeoted a few yearsago: "Th/fore- ing contributions froni authors around the world. Annual editions caster is not a science - fiction writer who bears no responsibilities Tor have since been issued. his prophecies.. The forecaster is a participant in the control of . science and technology and the entire economy. ldanswers for Vie 51 For example, G.M. Dobrov,Science about Science. ' assumptiOns he mades. jAnd he] must be ready toassume the dumka, 1966), the 'final chapter of which proviSed asurvey of responsibility for his recommendation[s]," This means, Glushkov kethods of forecasting. Later Volumes included the anthology, added, that the forecaster is "duty-bouninto-report,"immediately" Forearming Scientific-Technical Progress(Moscow. Znanie, 1968), any pertinent changes in estimates w hmh mahesulitiom his turre nt and G M Dobroy,Prognosticating Science and Technology(Mos- f..researcht Times ate-more benign in the Soviet Union, no doubt, butJ cow: Nauka, 1969). irss difricult not tosense that a message is being conveyed here which -54 For example, J..Gvishiam and V. A. Lisle-Mil., goes beyond these words.' See V. M. Glushkov,'"Modeling the Progno 'stika Future,"Nature (Moscow, 1968), which is described by Jantsch ("TF in the USSR," (Priroda), No. 1 (January 1969); translatedasFore- p. 85) as "the first Russian book on forecasting techhiquei."*Of casting and Modeling of the Future,JPRS-47782 (Washington, D.0 greater importance, perhaA is I. V. Bestuzhev -Lada,Window into Joint Publications Research Seri/Ice, April 4, 1969),p. 4. the Future Hereafter cited as "Modeling the Future." (Okno v budushch&e, ) (Moscow: Myst, 100). Because of its- reputation in thesWest, poRions of this4iook (hereafter citedas , 44 Erich Jantsch, "The Organization of Technological Forecasting Window)were tranated into,English forStse in preparing (Mg . chap- ,4 ^ in the Soviet Union Notes from a Brief Technological Fore- ter. Indepehdently, an annotated translation has been made under Casting,Vol. 1 (1969), p. 83. (Hereafter citedas "TF in the USSR.") the direction of Ric,kard Wo6ds at the University of Minnesota \ __The reasoris _for this historical coin were entirely ss Bestuzhev-Lada,-"Social Progliostics:Research,".p. dissimilar between,.. the two cas6, of course, except occasionallyon . _. 56 Bestuzhev-Lada; How To Forept the World's Future, 'p. 10. the level of grand exhortation. vie shall touch upon Some of these- it; reasons in a Moment. .--'57 SS, Stwlkov, tudiesof %the Problems ,1,1 Economic . .. - - . \ t' ...- 46 I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, "Social Prognostics Research," 1:)!ri,.-Forecasting" ("Nauchnye issledovama,po problemam ekonomiches- kogo PrognoziloVania"),lzvestia AN SSSRieria fkonomiches- ..,304-305The subject of the first conferenceWasthe ktp-oifuture'- -that "awaits mankind "; the sZcouttwhich kayo, No. 2 (4)72), pp, 135-136. , was sponsored by Oosiilan , and the USSFeAca'demy of Scien&s:w,as concerned with methqs of 51 Staderefamiliar wish Western publications may also conclude - economic foieAiliig. The 1967 cOnferences he cites dealt With topics "frothese figures that So iet specialists are much better informed .much closer to ptiteat concernsin Soviet forecasts g: problems of about Western work on forecasting than Westerners are about svork t social prognostication. (April), the city of the, fade_ (May), and in the USSR:I-his 'should not be surprising, given the iinpedance of Scientific- technological progress(May). th e in.goviet fOrecasting of studying history (inentiOned earlier) '4,5 W. Rolbiecki,''Prognosticatio; and PrognoseOlcgy,"ln Robert ipd 1 e blithesome tendency of Western futures researchdlirto ignore he needfor scholarship. , k Jungk and Johan Galtung (eds.),op. cit.,pi279. PartAiants at,thi . ,. , meeting included representatives from Bulgaria;:67eofTIovaktli;' 59 R. Richta otat Civilization at the Crossroads(Prague: the German Democratic Republic, litingary,Pol'andAdmailia,4.4 Intgnational irt-ti. and Science Press, 1969). This studywas coin- ,:-., ,.""_ _ the USSR, plus "guests fro'm Yiiidslavia." 40-,t . r... .-...ki., pleted in 1966, during the period of lifieralizaion thatcame to an end . .-- . ,7 --1-. -4.1...1.0. .. withthe Ru,ssian invasion of 196$; the " G. M!Dobrov,"Criietia ofSelection," Nature bibliographywas extended in cyrirod1)-; ; the course of preparing the 4glish translation. '(January 1969), a? trSatated in , , .., . Forecasting-and Moe' 'ilknil -- e-`, .. Future,JPRS-47782 (Washingtoii, . 4 D.C.:Joint ,Publics irsips ..6° Schrosiler,'Ntecent DeveapMents," p. 15. - . gp .ResearcliService, April 4, 1969), p. 8.,(Hereafter'cited as"Criterti44 ..i.As quoted in BeSturtriV-Lada, "BourgeoisfuturOlogyf P.50. ''Selection.") this meeting wits followed byOnein Moscow in JanirarY4-,% - : 1968 on the same subject. .; .61 I. Vi3mtuzhe-,-Lada, "Social Forecasting,! . . .. Soviet Cybernetitl ' I.-Review, 3,NoA5(May 1%9), pp. 55:59. 4° Bestuzhev-Lada. "SocialPregnoslics ;Research!" .p. .304:...,:i .f." * Among the sbbstantive topics Considered in 'these seminars we(re,_ 6; Begetzhisv-Lada, "Social Ferkecasting,"p. 57, and "Social Prog- ,urbin processes, social impacts of public education, leisure anti tour -;*:. nOsticsASaTrch," p. 3013. In his 1967 article, "How To Forecastthe isM, and disarmamenf 4id internatidnal security affairi. ..:".. ; Wo114,!S Frilure," liestuzhev-L'atla writes, "Accorcritirktarry strictly 5° Gertrude. E.Schr.o/ler,"Recent Developments. in Siiiiet..,;-rip.,.,-fiersonal computations, mote than 30sectors andresearth grbuPs in 'Moscow,each with an average staff of five to`ten, Planning and Incentives," SovietEconomic Prospectsfor the:Seve+ aretengaged ditvily or indirectly in problems of social prediction. There ties,Cdtnmittee Print of the Joint Economk Committee, U.S. qo.n7 are also gross (Washington, D.C.; .U.S. Governmept Printing Office: 4111k! futurb,logy speciilistsiinnt her cities of our country .r. .1J:titian Cheie ' research groups have not ytt managed to gladden 27, 1973), p. 13. (Hereafter cited as "Accent De "elopments.") us with an abun- .. dance of scientific output" (p. 10)./Names ofsome Of the Orgaitiza- /; 51 Bestuzhev-Lada in "Stiviet Priiiiidstics Laesearcl&ift :$05)::4 lions involved are given in these sources, as wellas in Jantssch,; "Tig. in mentions three suchinontechnical, work"; M. Vagiliev and §,.`7 /hhe USSR," and in the_articks by Agnew, Gogol, Hassel, Leber,.,.. . iv. - ( . . . . .t ...,-, -.., . `1+ 'I - : , . .,, i , -1,-:::. o , 16.$chroseder, and others included in the bibliography at the end oft his Output in Soviet r, kmning, Paper P-3206 (Santa Monica, Calif.: chapter. Most of them areinstirtiteNor departments within the The Rand Corporation, August 1965),-hp. 5,-10-1F, and 17.. . USSRft.cademy of Sciences or the SSR demy of Science of indi- 71North, "Crisis fn Planning," p. these estimates were paraph6,, vidual Repullics; hdcfitionaii5,10as many as 60 "temporary commis- rased by Northfrom Leon Smolinski, "What Neit in Soviet Plan- ti. siOns" have been established'make forecasts in special areas of ning?" Foreign Offairs, Vol. XLII, No. 4 (Jaly 1964),,pp. 602-613. interest. . . i , -,,,,,,,,p... v 72Penko4iy,op. cit., p. 208. Penkovskiy continues in high 64As quoted by the editors of the magazine-Priroda (Nature) in introducing a special series of articles on forecasting, published in scorn: "Hew long have we been ovegaking America? We were over- = America under Stalin; and now under Khrushchev we are still January 1969. ?. _ ° .. ovr ing America. The fool. At least he could try to say something es I. 1. Artobolevskij and S. V. Shukhardin, "Industry and Pro- sensible. title, he personally has overtakdri quite a bit: he has duction in the Year 2000," Soviet Cybernetics Review (January , three country houses -near Mosaii*,.several in the Caucasus. .. ." . 1970), p. 69,4See also Bestuzhev-Lada, "Bourgeois Futurology," p, as. (pp. 208-209): 50. . o rc= i 73Schroeder, "Recent DevelOpments," pp. 1413. 45V. G. Felzeribaum, "Measurement of the Economic Effective- 74 See pp. 1591160; Incidentally, other Soviet specialiststavf ness of Alternatives in Forecasting Scientific and Technological Pro- 6 maintained that this category of forecasts "properly should be inter- gress"("Izmerenieekonomichegkoieffektivnostialtemativ nauchno-tekhnicheskogo progressa pri prognozirovanii "), Izvestia preted as [a] subsystem" of socio-economic forecasts; see G. M. AN1SSSR Seria Eianomicheskaya, No. 3 (1973), p. 40. (Hereafter Dobrov and L. P. Smirnov, "rorecasting as a Means for Sciehtific and Technological Pojicy Control,-" Technologicaj Forecasting and cited as "Measur(ment of Economic Effectiveness'..") . Social Change, Vol. 4; No. I (1972J, p. 7. (Hereafter cit - - 67G.G.Ivanov and A. I. Musk., "Certainivlethodological casting for Policy Control.") In fact, this suhOrdination probably Questions of theInterrelations of teonomic Development Forecast- gives a more.accurate insight into the emphasis placed upon science ing and the Planning of Scientific St Udies" ("Nelot orye metodologi- and technology as key forces of production inh,e Soviet economy. cheskie voprosy vzaimosvyazei prognozirovaniarazvitia ekanomiki i plinirovanfa nauchnykh issledovanii"), lzvestia A4S-S SR Serta 75Note thit the entry, "morallaef eta cal developments, " ,at di' Ekommicheskaya; No. 2, (1973), p. 85.Rfereafter citei as bottpni of the 'left-hand bran* for "Vocio-economic' pregnostica- tion& is followed by dological Questions a question mark. Besfuzhev-Lada says that this , subjudlliuuld "1.6 ubber be,included here, though very little work " Bestuzhev-Lada, "Bourgeois Futurology," pp. 3$ and 50. In 'has,actualry been donealclint that he rep6ts in Window (pp. 146 ."Social Forecasting" (p. 63), 'he asserts that the basic reason for ) and 197-198). [Cf. F. C. Ikle, "Social Forecasting and tho Problem newer approaches to forecasting is to "solve the problems set hefo - of Changing Values," Futures, Vol. 3, No. 2 (June 1971), pp. us by the Communist Party and the govertuneN." Something of 142-150.] It might be mentioned duo neglect of values Idiunabeen,.- *same ihswellias also beedexriessed in)ifis way: 7To make s as importt an issue inCommunist fotecastingas it has io the West, and technical foreiasting work for the cause of Communist devel- since t doctrine holds that moral and ethical.considerations are opment is to utilmore effectively the basic advantages of our emphatically not central in personal or social development, BeCause f.- social system, as deteined by 'the planned system of management ralikalues are class values, and values change as a result of changfi,ife and a unified scie lc and tee-finical policy." See V. M. Glushkov material conditions, the inevible victory of dommunistnerifitils and G. M. Dobrov,"Scientific.Prognosis,"hvesilya {July 10,1968); that the only values which ca and will matter are those of the prolet7, I translated as Scienitfic and Technical Forectoting Seen Vital to_ ariat. The accepted view w xpressed in 1951 by the Soviet philo7 Soviet Progrels, JPRS-46113 (Washington, D.C.: Joint Publiea- , sooher, P. ifz.,Slitria, tse words: "A; founders of Marxismhia, tions Research Service, Auguste, 1968). (Hereafteriited tstScien- .no need to Separate outspectral science of ethics, since the scientific. tific proglaosis.") - . , . theory of social develmeet they created already provided a sc' ien-:- .- e 41, tific foundation fororality, toe, as one of the forms of social con- .69The fears of the political and military leadership about sciousnessousness mint not confuse two 'things:. the ba;ing,,of Khrushchey's incompetence in'intereational altAirs provide the socialism thics; which the classics of Marxism-Leninism theme of Oleg Penkovskiy's The Penkovskiy Papers (Garden City, attacked bi erly, and the ethical nature of Marxisrfi itself, as the N.Y.: Doubleday and Compiny, Inc.,.1965), which ably- most' progressive, scientific" world-view, 'striving toward incessant .written by him in 1961-62. According to this bo k ovskly'sr... progress, towards the liberation afoxploited and suffering human- \ own-gears,as an army colonel assigned to the Chief Intelligence ity " Quoted in Eugene Kamenka,4Marx,Marxism; and Ethics,' rectorate (GRU) of the Soviet Oeneraiptaff, led him to become an Soviet Survey, No. 35 (January-March 1961), p. 109. See also How- , espionage agent for the West. These activities were uncovered bythe ard Selsam, Sot:1116.in and Ethlcs(New York: International Publish-, .Committee for State'Security (KGB) in 1962, and Penkovskiy is _ers,1943), especially Chap. III. ieported to have.been shot in 1963. (It should be noted that charges. 6 . haye been made recently that both the,bOok and the man arseCIA :76 BeStU2heVic4414ind010/0- 15ff. - R . fabrications.) In any event, it appears that the KGB did' play a key role in helping to tu?n,Khrushchey out of office.- 77Cf.. y. Gzhegov,-"The lfiiuggle for the Future of Mankind" ("Borba za pudushchee cheloiecheitva"): M, ekonomilia 1 70Alex NoVe, "Prospects for con . nic Growth in the USSR," in mezhdunarodnye otnoshenla, No. 9 (September 1972), pp. '24-36, Morris Bornstein and Daniel R. Fus .ld (eds.), The Soviet Econom'y' ,wherein.bourgeois social forecasters are diyided into three groups: (Homewood, Ill.: Richard D. Irwin, 1966), p. 418; as quoted in Gary l(I) thole who admit the possibility of socialforecasting,(2) those, North, "The t7iisii in Soviet Economic Planning," Modern Age, who, deny. it.and (3) those who "subjectively limit" but nevertheless Vol. 14, No. 1 (Winter 1969-7,0), pp. 54-55. (North's article, which admit .the possibility in certain areas. Ozhegov's discussion makes,all brings together many scholarly sources, 41 hereafter be cited -hs = three groups the servantg of a c,orrupnEl dying social systemotrtig- "crisifen Planning.") Cf. also A. S. Becker, The Future of Input-. Ong againsethe inevitable. Lackin n objectiVe historical , ,; ....., 0.1 V. perspective," however, they cannot correctly appraise the underlying OR approach in heSoyietlJnion. A harbinger of thl Tendencymatey "ideological*crisis of.Western futurology," and consequentlreannot be found in th% writings of Romanian Pavel ApOs1, who has for- produce adequlfely scientific forecasts. Among the authorswhose mally called fot"anExtended Opetations Rese ch.(E0R),C,which_ works are reviewed in this context are Aron, Bell, Bright'," Helmer, hesees as OR applied \to completesystems of " ocial action," such as Kahn and Wiener, and economic; military, or cultural affairs..(See Aflostol, op. cit.,p. 209.) 79 This is not to minimize, however, the value or influence among 99 Agnew, op. cit.. p. 35. 1' the Soviets of the conventional disciplines as approaches to a study 784 of the future which can s'uccessfully navigate betweerithe Scylla of Iii Bestuzhev-Lada's. .o pinion (Windows. pp. n 1ff.)prognos- Party tradition and the Charybdis of received doctrine. A book like / tics, operations research; and decisiontheory are ''links in a chain _George Fischer (ed.), Science and !deo/fogy in Soviet Sosiety,2 lew of, ax:Itiroaches to problems of the future." Diagramatically, he . York: Atherton Press, 1967), while not directlyclineenield.with fore- mine s INS ohain as shoWn in the diagram, where the top level. casting, makes plain tillIlarge role played by each of the disciplines in indicates the activityfo be performed, the Aecond level, the output of . shaping specialized awareness of the issues at stake-and of the iird'h the activity; and the third level,1he approach thatigovepts and is lems.yet to be resolved. In the opening cnamer, Fischer (pp. I-46) defined by the activiticsand outputs. - discusses recent developments in sociology, highlighting the differ- .. . ences between trends toward-research involving a "future" oriental 85' Loren R. Graham, "Cybernetics," in George Fischer (ed.), op.', tion and research requiring a "concrete' orientation. (Interestingly, cit., p 90. Graham's paper traces out the rise of cybeineticsin the, . he finds the principal Contrasts to be that the sociologists wko haVe Soviet Union,,summarizes the internal debate about the relationship -between cybernetics and the doctmle; explains in detail khy the `?' ..adopted. the "future"rategy are less rigorous in,ethoaol-tn ogy, much morefeasual in their choice and use df souce material, appearance ofthts new science has-been greeted with` renewed hope mach mote clicerned about "the central institutions ot the society," about the poSsibility of making Communism ':work," and attempts trievaluate its lasting contributions t6 Soviet planning. much morefikely to base conclusions on deductions from flrstprinz . ,- ciples, and infinitely mote prone to -"talk of today's society as no sa";, Graham accurately forecasted thii beeline in enthusiasm,0 . more. than a passing way station en route to an ideal though distant -- PointinCesPeciallylo majoc theoreticaland philosophital obstacles , future.") In the samevolume,, Richard T. De George 'considers to contlete success) - Soviet phildophy (pp. 4641), argling, among other things, that "s "practical necessity has forced Soviadeologist [ana`philosophers] 87 Moiseevf or oge, has said that "until now:we have been unable to begin to do ,what all the anti-Marxist critiques of the Marxist to understand fully what is meant by 'systems analysis, although we Interpretation of history could not Ilbrc them to do, It has forced use this term, because,,td itiOlt means something difietly concerned them to analyzeond revise some of theitprophetic claims and to start withsphysics"sjapparently, in that it invblves the construction of onmn empirical study of [the laws of] their own developing society. ...models. [See N. M oissev, The Present State of Futures Research in [But it Inust be emphasized that this] work and clarification is taking the Soviet Union?in Nigel Hawks (ed.), International ,Seminaron Trinds in Mathematical Modelling Venice, pecember, Q-18, 197d place within... Marxist-Leninist bounds" (pp. 78-79). Folowing a review 'hytorenk. Graham of cyberpetics (a subject that will be con- - (New 'Yore Springeryerlag,` 1973), p.14. HereafteA cited a* sidered briefly in a moment), there is also a paper by Herbert 3* t "Futures. Research in the USSR.") In contrast, systems analysis has Levine on developments in economics (pp. 107-138), whited shows ban equated with "the scientific spirit" by ,D. M. Gvishiani {see G. how Soviet expectations about tuse of mathematical and compu- M 15obro ;"Technology Assessment inthe USSR or the Science of Science: Aasis for the Effettive Management of Scientific Activ- ter techniquesin-economi4lbeen tempered by theoretical, tech; it9," Techn ogy :Issessment. Vol. 1, No. 3 (1973), p.194. A simpler nital, administrative; ancl:/ltclitical realitiesall of whichcan IA traced, to some extent, to Soviet, conceptions about the future and an\I perhaps even more usefuLdefinition, for Sovietpurposes, has . how it can best be planned.. been given by Pospelov, who asserts that "in practice" systems anal -/ ysis is merely "the procedure of making decisions. it is concerned- with c,onstructing a picture of the future and a formulatiOn of goals " See footnote 84 below for an elaboration of this point. and tasks. The procedure males,clear what action must be taken in t StrikimOy different definitions have been feted by some forecast eacit' of the given situations and how." [G. S. lbospelov, "Control ters ii Eastein Europe. For example, Pofi':h author Waldemar kol-, System Design Theocy," Soviet Cybernetic. s Review (November e ,biecki characterizesaprognostic.a tion as"thectivity of rdan consist- IVO), p. 24.] . ',singinforesightitidforecasting"; he fecommends the, term N. ' "prognoselogy" to denote thesclencecmiceined with the methodo- 99 Cf. the discussion of these points inChap. I. logy, psychOlogy, sociology, and philosophy ofthe prognoXic pro- a 99 These advantages have not as yet been sensed in other Comniu- cess (op. cit., pp;278,282-285). He explicitly rules out the possibility nis; countries. For example, "the systents proach, with,its pro-, that forecastiax itself-tan be a science, at least in any conventional found concern for ,the underlying political p esses, Can hardly be sense (p. 279). ... ,. discusfed in Romania.. The alleged 'objectivity' of the 'science' of ' 4 8° E. Mannchirova and It. iankulin, as paraphrased in Irene forecasting is user/ilia pretext to' avoid any consideration of political Agnew, "Ukraine Coordinates- Economic Cybernetics Work,", dprocessbs. [At the same time, however,] the word 'system' is consi- Soviet eybernetitcRiview(July 1970), p, 35.- , - dered a 'good' word M komania:asis 'cybernetics' in all Cornnfu- . nist countriesand is used in all possible and also impossible cbn-- 91 G. S. Pospelov, "Control System Design Theory; .Soviet texts."Erich Jantscha "The Organization of Cybernetics Review (14ventber 100)4. 24r , Forecasting in '''sr:, ;I, Ros., la: Notes from a Brief Visit," Technological Forecasting and $2 Agnew, op.:cit., p. 35 (italics added).-Assneh; of_doursepR Social Change. Vol.4,.tlo. 1 (1972), pp. 2.1-22. . , must bs relevant to aIl tys of plans, programs, or project&a t aast. .99 Schroeder, "Recent D ments," p. 30. rather fanciful notion, if only because the analyst Will certainly have - , a 1 to defer at some point to the beliefs of the.Parly leadership. Nonethe- 9!_N: Fedorenks, "On the boration of a System'of Optimal lesi, there seems to be a tendency td'try to enlarge the scope of the Functioning of the Socialist Economy," Problems of Ecovomks, ,. Ss 9x 6 Vol.15, No. 9 (January 1973), tp. 0-12. Hereafter cited as 'QS A. Klinskj, as quoted intl. S. Levine, in Fischer (e4.),op. cit., "Elaboraftion 400EF.") In these pages,oincidentally, Fedorenko p. 123. Many of the details in this review of 11 0 are based on Lelne's also refers explicitly to the need of assuming that "basic characteris- essay, as well as Schroeder:epa- per. tics in the dynamics Qf the 'national economyvolume of braticeh output, limits on capat inyestment, etc were already established: 106 A. Klinski, in.L.evihe, in Fischer (ed.),op. cit.,p. (i.e., given by the party). WI Probably a Idost:distressing outcome, especially if, as Becker . infers (op. cit.,p. 2)'?",seieral hundred research and project-making 02 V.A,Lisichkin, "The Process of Making Forecasts," J institutions" participated' in the effort. 4 ';r, Technological Forecasting ISO), p. 103. (Hereafter cited as "Pro- - ceis of Making Fofecasts.") -' 6 08 Quoted frOmP$lems of Ectwomics,No.,2(1968), gyp. 20, by o Schroeder, "Recenhtiiielopilients," p. 27, who adds, :Probably, the /93 Bestuzhev-Lada, "Soc al Progno;tics Research," p. 303. . sand statement Could be made bysomeot* writing in 1975." 4 GlastIkov411 and0 Dobrov, "Scientific Prognosis," p. 3. By 1972, this number had somehow increased to 130. See Dobro'v and Sillier- 109 As quoted,in Schroeder, "Recent Developments," p. 28. t 0 nov, "Forecasting for Policy Control," p.10. 110 Soyiet awareness of the Gordon - Helmer study and of the Del- pOtechnique generally has been very current, as indicated in part by , , 7 BestuzhAv-Lada,Window.pp. 66-67. the fact that all references tothe Gordon-Helinework citethe origi- 26 Observe, however, that additions are allowed for only id rife . nal English vets'n published by the Rand CorporatiottImpOt. realms of "General Scientific Methods" and 'Specific Scientific taptly, these rifences also suggest that the So'viets,like most others 'Methods." arotmd.the world who commented on the study, failed to see that it , . " 0414ATTERN and Delphi are rarely mentioned by name in the4'; was not so much a forecasts an experiment in forecasting, and thus shave tended to consider only its apparently substantive findings.° Soviet literature, except in passing but "hieraechical trees" or *goal' ef' trees"' and "expert -opinion" techniques are,,Often cited..No doubt 111 Cf. Bestuzliev-Lala's.complent in 1967 ( "How To Forecast most references to "trees" of one sort or another are actually referen- the - Wild's Future," p. 10) thkt "fheoretically, every science must ces to relevance trees, PATTERN being an areiletypictil instance ingagem prediction in its own field. But try, for example, to force c' Similarly, ,"expert opinion" may mean Delphibut this is more the Acaderity.of,Pedagoe Jo:examine the problems ofeducation of _problematical,since thogoviets deferminedininvent their own the next century or even the next few decades! Q.c the Academy of version of the Techniaue Mie thatismore in weeping with the nature Agricultural Sciences t4e problems of agriculture in the 1970's or -....apd aims of forecasting in the Wel Ilniona point dis 1980's. They will be lucky if they, cope with ,the present five-year further below. a plan." '; 4 . - 98 A. Becker, whoseThe Future of Input-Output inoviet "2 I. Ehin, "Some Methodological Problems of Forecasting" planningwe paraphrase here, cites the basic Soviet papers. Transactions AS EstonleITISR,Vol. 20; No. 4 (1971), p.369, explic- . . 6 A good summary of thee matters will be fou,ad.in H. S. Lev itly recommends Delphi and PATTERN for this plilltise. (Ehin's "Economics," in Fischer (ed.),op.cu.,pp. '123-128, and in e paper will hereafter be cited as "Some Methodologicaproblems.") Schroeder, 4Recent Developinents," pr22-29. "3 To judge by the forecasting literature, Soviet forecastu-s,maks regular use of probahllistic inputs and computations, p;rtic5laily in/ .loot ehroeder, "Recent Developments," p9 24, mathematical:ter:mobile model-building. But they tie .tts'uallY, 19, K A gagrinovsky, "ifSystem Of Models for Central Pin- reticent and always vague when h comes to discussing. ihe role of ning," in Nigel Hawkes (ed.) ,International Seminar on Trends in . priNability in theiranalysesand perhaps this is understandable, in athematical Modelling,Venio, December 1Y-18, 1971 (New view of thoideological constraints reviewed earlier. As ani ication 41,, Y9 Spiinge. r-Verlag0973), pp. 21-30.' r 4 how even anexpert cart be perplexing Onthis serpre,so der care- 192 A. A Araketyap and V. S. Dadayan, "Experie of IVIodel fully theyoisiblameaninigifithis statement: "The stream of informa-. .$ ysage Lo ikTerin Economic Forecast" ("Opyt Miko- On on new disdoveries, ide;s, and 4ventions . :Os very copioup. . matemaAcheskostrm94eltrovania v_dolgoiroclinom p ozirova- We kliowiii advancethat not everything contained theyilltrMix gle ver- nit "),Vestnik AN ?SR,No. 2 (1973), pp. 58-64. realized. In other words; we haveinformadon not about a ' sjon of the' future, tut abtut its many versions: And 'the fc7recast'er'.. 103 S. Shatalin, "New Methods, NeW Means,"Curr Digest of acelomplish the mission before him if.he is able to cletermine, or . theSoviet Press,Vol. 24, No. 29 (August 16,972), p. 8. fqretelf, just which version will be realize* and such a forecaitrs-. 4 Jr. ' I.' O , V''''1, 0 always made with sortie degree of probability." obolaiv":"Criteria ofst... 104 Federenko, "Elaboration of ScrtF,"-p. 16. In this egnnecti6n it . . r i. Selection,'!). 6.)' ,' .., ..-. ... . 1 Might be mentioned. that a consideraNe bureaueiaey exists lot .'' ; , .,.. f t . promoting mathematical-economic contributions to the national - 114 U. A..Zykov, "On Certain, Principles of the Egononlic Fv . program, for xadiple, in 1968 Go blished. a Department casting ofcientific and Technological Progress" (" for the Introduction of Economic- ematicaplethods in Plan- printsipakh ekondmicheskogo prognozirova 'ning. Constant pressure is also ng apPlied-15yihe,top lea'dershiR. teknicheskogo.:progressa"),sIzVestia API.SYSRSeria Ek At the 24th Party Ccingress, or example, Brezhnev daclaried that kayo, No.3_0973y, p. 50. "wider use these metlids [Le, "economicci-mathematical model -r its Zyla1V,op. 50.. ing; Systems analysis; and so' on"] must be made, and sectoral Auto-, Its , .mated manageptetit-systems must becreated more rapidly"; Kosygin 116 dclre,'and Smirtiov, "Forecasting for Policy control," P'. 10.. .1 insistedthait is the duty Ito( the eccfnomit executives tq learn the ry . 1 new gemenetechniques 134sed on a thorough knowledge of 117., Ehin, "Some Meth6dological. Problems," 'pp. 368-369. Fol- Mark-Leninist theory"t24th Party Congress Doctimeips, , Jowing the suggestions of the American, W. Gilman, Ehin declares , . 188 . I - :further that'Ao find develop a larger number ofnpn-conforming < e ;,* 1180 scientists . ,is an important task Such non-conforming per- pons ... and hold a poll on them among the population. they are scinalities may counterbalance the determining influence (or rigidity) sure to be backed by an absolute majority. This is beyond Created by [conventional] predictions and plans" (p. 369). doubt ..." and, hence, there is-no need to hold the poll. [N. S. 11$ Moiseev, "Futures Research in the USSR." p. 15. Khrushchev, For Victory in Peaceful Competition with Capitalism (New York: E. P. Dutton and Co., 1960), P`-590.Gradually`(and 119 Dobrov, "Criteria of Selection," p. 9. probably reluctantly) it has come to be recbgiiiieciahat on some 120 This point is especially emphasized by Moiseev in "Futures issues the "experts" are the people. The point Is ,nowhere setter Research.in.the-USSR." pp. 14-15 and 17. On the other hand. exemplified than in thearea of forecasts of consunieriremand, where Elestozhev-Lads (in "How To Forecast the World's Future." p. 9) has mathematical- economic approaches have proven less than satisfac- said that in U.S. Delphi studies "a large degree of objectivity has tory and are now being augmented by the results of public polls on ensured a large degree of reliability in the predictions " at least in desires, trends, and preferences, (Details are given in the papers by gathering forecasts based on "patterns of present-day social thought Budnik, Gogol, Stanev, and others cited in the bibliography.) among 'scientists"! 126 The first term appears in Glushkov and Dobrov, "Scientific 121 Dobrov, "Criteria of Selection." p. 9. (Soviet forecasters, like Prognosis,- p 4; the second. in Dobrov and Smirnov, "Forecasting their Western counterparts. have not worried overmuch about the for Policy Control,- passim The description that follows is based on infinite regress implied by this counsel, the Soviets, at least.can take Dobrov and Smirnov*s discussion on pp. I I18, omitting the com- comfort in '.rnowing that it would lead eventually to the certaintizs in putational steps used for analyzing the data. the doctrine:) Another suggestion that has been made, but appar- 11' SPRITE is Bell Canada's version of the Delphi technique, ently not yet acted upon, for increasing the reliability of expert opin- distinctive in that it involves interaction between different panels of ion techniques, would be to avoid one-shot investigations and de- respondents (e.g., "experts" vs. laymen-) dunng the evaluation of -velop a "continuous system" foi tapping the minds of specialists. the same set of issues. This Would provide the wherewithal for making comparisons. uncovering.basic problems, and so on. This idea has been urged by 118 Dobroy and Smirnov, "Forecasting for Policy Control.-p. 18. N. M. Glushkov (op. cit.. p. 3). Dobrov and Smirnov ("Forecasting 129 L. Brezhnev, 24th Party Congress Documents.,p. 69. for Policy Control," p. 18), and'others. 130 Cf. the items by N. V. Markov and I. A. Andreev in the 122 See, for example, U. ,Ennuste. "On Prediction Means and bibliography. N. N. Semonov, in his The World of the Future." Variations of an Optimal Planning Problem- ("0 prognozirovanii [Bulletin:of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 20, No. 2 (February 1964), p. srednikh znachenii i dispersii parametrov zadach optimalnogo pla- 10], points out that it was Khrushchev who, at the 22nd Party Con- nirovania-). Transactions AS Estonian SSR, Vol. 21, No. 3 (1972), gress (1961), observed that "science is becoming more and more a pp. 245-252. direct force of production. and production itself is becoming the 123 Strictly computer simulations are included among the technological application of modern science.** mathematical-sconomic methods. But "simulation- as used here is 131 R. Richta etal., "The Perspective of the Scientific and intended to refer to the approach taken when the system being inves- Technological Revolution:* in Robert Jungk and Johan Galtung tigated either is still in the process of development or is so complex (eds.), op. cu.. p. 200. Richta and his colleagues in Czechoslovakia that it cannot be reduced io a set of equations. In these cases. simula- were among the first students of prognostics to look closely at the tion models are used to ''unite the method of expertise with the nature and ramifications of the scientific-technical revolution; they method of mathematical modeling One might say. for instance, that were also amongthe first to declare that this revolution would intrin- the method of mathematical models allows us to create a chess sically operate to the advantage of the Communist countries, rather board, and the method or expertise allows the players to show capa- than the imperialists. [This view has since found widespread expres- bilities which they possess, but which the computer does not." In sion. See, for example, 24th Party Congress Documents. pp. "simulation- the two are joined (Moiseev. "Futures Research in the 147 148. and Bestuzhev-Lads, "Bourrois Forecasting,"wherein he USSR," pp. 15-16.) asserts that "the socioeconomic effects of the scientific and techno- 124 In his extensi.e survey of reports on Delphi, Murray Turoff logical revolution as they appear in the light of modern forecasting has found only one published Soviet paper. G. M. Dobrov and L. data are in irreconcilable contradiction with the further ex:stence of Smirnov, "Forecast as a Means for Scientific and Technological Pol- the capitalist mode of production" (p 49).] Finally, they were the icy Control," which was presented at the Seminar on Technological first to make clear that the revolution cluld not be equated to what Forecasting, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, others have called the ';post-industrial" transformationin part Warsaw, Poland, December 1970. While it would be easy to argue because the service sector would eventually give way to the influence that the lack of Delphi studies in the Soviet Union (particularly in of automation and better management. in part because the scientific- view of the many references) is attributable to the fact that Delphi technical revolution would have the building of the new man at its requires anonymity and open-endedness, the explanation may well heart: man would not be the final and alinust incidental beneficiary be much simpler: it is an import from the United States. of developments taking place somewhere out there, in "society." 125' Western forecasters may be surp sed to learn that polls about 1'1 24th Party Congress Documents, p. 224. future states of affairs have been conducted not only among the 1" Here. as elsewhere. it is well to recall that global perceptions experts. but also among the public ( An example was giv en earlier in about the future as enunciated by the party leadership are to be taken fn 14 ) The number is not significant nor is it in the United States, on all levels of society as truths. and their implications, as orders. for that matterbut it does represent a break from the attitude com- from the ana yst and planner's point of view especially-It is wise not mon among the leadership in the 1960's This attitude was epitom- to lose sight national economic good in the name of .lability of inch perhaps. in a 1958 speech by Khrushchev when he asserted that individual enterprises, for it Is what is good for the national economy if the USSR were to take issues like "immediate discontinuation of that is ultimately good fur the individual ent.nprises."[N Felzen- nuclear tests [and] complete rejection of the use of nuclear %ea- baum."Measurement of the Economic Effectiveness of Alternatives 181 193 in Forecasting Scientific and Technological Progress" ("Izmereme scientific papers published. Pravda, at least, has now come to his ekonomicheskoi effektiv nosh alternator nauchno-teknicheskogo defense, see N. Chernichenko. "Weather for the Whole'Summer," progressa pri prognozirovami ;, /. ,estia AN SSS R Serra Ekononu- Current Digest of the Soviet Press Vol. 24, No. 39 (October 25','" kaya, No. 3 (1973), p. 63.10ne should compare the converse of 1972), pp. 20-21. this: "What is good for General Motors is good for the United 143 I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada, "Systems Analysis and the Prognosis of' States." Social Needs of the Youth," as quoted in H. A. Linstone,"The Third 154 Glushkov and Dobrov, , "Scientific Prognoses," pp 2, 3, and 5 World Future Research Conferzttice." Technolog.cal Forecasting andSoCial Change, Vol. 4, No. 3 (1973), p. 241. In a paper given at 135 Zykov, op. cit. the Seventh World Congress of Sociology in 1970,' Hungarian 16 These attributes will speak for themselves, except perhaps for Gyorgy Fulcasz expressed the idea in fewer words. "Scientific futu- "conditional"(which simply means that theforecast takesan "if rology is in fact the theory of Communism." As quoted In_K. Kuman, then"form) and "noncontrollable-controllable" (which is intended "FuturologyThe View from Eastern Europe (Review of R. Rich- to indicate whether the conditionthe is within man's control). ta's Civilization at the Crossroads)," Futures, Vol. 4, No. I (March, 1972), p. 91. '37 Lisich kin, "Process of Making Forecasts," pp. 103 and 104. The list of stages and steps that follows is from this paper. 144 Bestuzhev-Lada, "Bourgeois Futurology," p. 39. 135 Schroeder; "Recent Developments," p. 16. Iis Bestuzhev-Lada, "Social Forecasting,"p. 59. 119'It has been reported that Stalin used an astrologer named Yuri !" "Of course, there can be no compromise with views and pro- Yamakin for a time, that Stalin eventually sent him to a labor camp. nouncements hostile to Marxism ....It must-be remembered and that after Stalin's death, Khrushchev brought Yamakin back firmly that we are for peaceful co-existence of states with diverse and gaVe hirit "an official suite at the Kremlin." [Herbert B. Green- social systems, but against peaceful co-existence of ideologies, since house, Premonitions. A' Leap into di_ Future (New York. Warner that would mean ideolbgical disarmament." Kommunist, No. 10 Paperback Library, 1973). p. 115.] This is interesting and perhaps (August 1956), as quoted in Harry and Bonaro Overstreet, What We even true, but it is also irrelevant. Until Khrushchev was deposed, the Must Know about Communism (New York. Pocket Books, Inc., official view of parapsychology and any of its kin was not only nega- 1958), p. 109. These words appeared in a rather different context (as tive but hostile. For example, the Soviet EnLycloredia in 1956 char- advice to Soviet intellectuals generally), but there is no indication i acterized telepathy a, "an antisocial, idealistic fiction about man's the Soviet forecasting literature that thinking on this matter diverges supernatural power to perceive phenomena which, considering the in any way. And time has not hau the least effect on the 1956 posi- time and the place, cannot be perceived." Sustained and open scien- tion, thus, Pravda declared baldly on April 2, 1974, that "there can, tific research did not begin until about 1965. The record of So.let be no talk of any ideological coexistence or even ideological papers and reports on parapsychological investigations sums up the armistice." matter: according to one Soviet source, in 1957 three papers 147 "Economic Institute Is Taken to Task," p. I. appeared, all of which were negative; in 1967, there were 152 papers, of which only 15 were negative. See Sheila Ostrander and Lynn 14"Apostol, "Marxism and the Structure of the Future," p. 202. Schroeder, Ps)chic Discoveries behind :hr. Iron Curtain (New York: 1" Eugeniusz Olszewski,a7cd Lech Zacher, "Political Implications Bantam Books, 1970). pp. 20 and 141. This fascinating book is the and the Role of Government in the Planning of Technological source of the details in the text. Future in the Socialist Countries," Anticipation, No. 15 (December 1973), p. 34. 140 Quoted in Ostrander and Schroeder, op. cit., p. 64. INl Bestuzhev-Lad;., "How To Forecast the World's Future, p. 141 In a statement that would have to be considered roughly 10. equivalent to an endorsement ofJeane Dixon by the Deputy Direc- tor of the U.S. National Science Foundation, Nikolai Semyonov of 151 An example is provided m Y. A. Chizhov. "Why Economic the USSR Academy of Sciences said in 1966 that "it is very impor- Forecasts are being Reviewed" ("Pochemu peresmatrivayutsya eko- tant to scientifically study the psychic phenomena of sensitives like nomicheskie prognozyr), .7.Sh.A., No. 6 (June 1973), pp. 20-29. Wolf Messing." (Quoted in Ostrander and Schroeder, op. cit , p 44 ) This paper reviews recent U.S. forecasts of the American economy, The remarkable Mcssing, who has the unique distinction of having and concludes that the errors were not due so much to the failings of been tested by Stalin, Gandhi, Einstein, and Freud, believes that the models used, but rather tote inaccuracy of government statis- there is nothing supernatural about his abilities and that, however tics and misleading budgetary information. they may ultimately be explained, nothing will be found that is inconsistent with dialectical materialism 152 Exceptions may be found in authors like Bell, op. cit., and lkle, 142 A case in point is provided by the experience of Anatoly op. cit. Vitalyevich Dyakov, a trained meterologist stationed at the Kuz- 1" The optimism among Westerners has been mentioned often. netsk Metallurgical Combine in Western Siberia In his sparc time. See, for example, Irene Traviss, ''Futurology and the Problem of Dyakov makes long-range weather forecasts, ten days to three or Values," International Social Science Journal, Vol. XXI, No. 4 more months ahead. strictly on the basis of his observations of solar (1969), pp. 580-582. activity, WhiClrhe has been studying for 35 years. His forecasts are widely requested because their accuracy ranges somewhere between "4 V. N. Siforov, "The Philosophy of Long-Term Forccasts," 80 and 90%. In contrast, the "scientific" forecasts made by the offi- Priroda (Nature), No. I (January. 1969), translated in Forecasting cial Hydrometeorological Center in lbestern Siberia average about and Modeling of the Future, JPRS 47782 (Washington, D.C.. Joint 60% accurate. Nevertheless, the weather service officials at the center Publications Reference Service, April 4, 1969), p: 12. have denounced Dyakov's work as "charlatanism, not scicnce," and have "certified [him] as 4 sorcerer." As a result, he is unable toget his ," I.I. Artobolevsky and S. V Shukhardin, op cit , p. 68 182 P9? 156 We would note that Soviet specialists were among the re- and organizations, the participation of different countries and of spOndents to the survey repo.tcd in the appendix to this volume whole continents. Such a 'collectivization' of resources, minds, and 15''Bestuzhey-Lada, "Social Prognostics Etesearch," pp. 305-306. communications will undoubtedly extend and attempts to oppose it Compare the opinion of Dann! Gramm "Modern natural sciences, are historically doomed" (in Cranin, op. cit., pp. 28-29). modern technology require the convening of international sympoii- ISS Fred Polak, The Image of the Future (New York: Elsevier urns;ihe creation of lima nent international committees, institutes Scientific Publishing Company, 1973), pp. 303-304. 183 195 Part. III Professional Issues Chapter -The :Futures: Field:- Functions, Forms, and Critical Roy Amara ,Forni-FolloWS-Function *Old if we limited .Our purview :to nfOre- recent historysay, _of the-fait two &three decades. Form should- -follow: function in -situ,cttiting, the futures field' as surely as it should in designing physical- -Within that period -.three important and quite §tructtirei. Thus an - anaiysiS, of institutional form is distinct.comp onents bearingon the origins and func4.' meaningless unless it is preceded or accompanied by a lions of the futures field_haNieemerged. The first is an clear image of what the futures field is and what Put-, image-forming and goal-oriented component, with Poies itis serr. visionary and conceptual aimed at extending the range and-rielineis_of images of the future Asedond'is ifis-notthe purpose. here to dwell On the variety of- an-analytically and methodologically ---based ,Coinpo- definitions that have been :used to characterize the nent, -with; scientific .andlechnolOgiCal;roots,, aimed futures field.2The two that teernt o come closest to cap- basically at enhancing intentionality in human affairs. turingifie essence of what is admittedly stillan activity And the third is a grass=roots and action-oriented being -shaped by its practitioners are com- ponent, with political and sociological roots, dlirected, I.-Any- systematic attempt to improve _our at advancing participatory social planning These three understanding of the -fiat:ire, consequences of componentS, Correspond_ approximately lO.the:possi- present de-yelOpments and 'choices. ble, probable, and= preferable _aspects :Of the-fUttiteS_ 2. Any efforts _to systematize our assumptions and field' contained in the second, definitionpresente& -t :Pereeptions about the future. These fall into three earlier. _ categories: :the: eXploratiori of p easible, futures (the art of fliturism), the exploration of probable ,Thc.imagerforming or goal-oriented, litiots:-of futures (the science of futurism), and the eXPloraL sutures field:are:the- most -difficult to trace andde-- tion, Of preferable futures (the politics and psy- scribe. ,Inopart, this is -because --sueh imits- are not -chOlogytif futuriim).3 uniquely tied to the futures field and in part because -they- often-lead-to-strOng-charismatic-individuats- Or' Althoughst such definitions are useful-in 'improving communication and in-providing -frames of common seminal -thinkers wit h.'intaginative _and, at -reference,. they can shed only -lirnited- -light on the orthodox images of- the future. Such indiduàIs functions Of the futures field. TO explore such-func- zlinost defy cataloguing and,infact,-manyinightnot tions more directly, it is instructive to probe briefly into identifywith ,at111.They ray l* d- the origins_ of the futures field. tSeribedasl- thodern;dysociaiai. eVolutionaries, ecoiogi- ;cal fizttliisti,_ Social, activists, 'science fiction-writers, An interesting digression might be made at this point and so forth The common threads binding them are tracing the roots Of the futures field to a variety, of. visionary perceptions of possible futures. Sometinies, eighteenth or nineteenth century utopians, social these perceptions are accompanied with useful cities, reformers, "eisayiits, technological forecasters, or per- about :how such futtires- may_ be realized. SOmethiles haps evert to ancient Grecian, oracles or soothsayers. these images are.utopian, sometimesatitintOpiamthe: Interesting as this might be, it would not shed nearly as' -crucially important function fulfilled is that Of expand mita:fight-on-the functioi-'s of the futures fieldas it ing man's horizon in-the art-of the possible, 1"4 1E9 The modern analylidal iiiOtS of the inttires fieldre involvement in thinking creatively about longterm al- .somewhat simpler -to trace. They originate in the early ternative futures. 1940'sand-can be traced to.the-applicationot opera, ttitures lions research to Military:tactical -and, more general In summary, then, the general features of the ,OperatiOniii planning:problems during World -War II. field may presently be broadly outlined asfollowi: :Dominated hearilyt:sYthositraiiit din the physical and Visionary Integrative_ and strategic with initheinatidat sciences; the "successful application of a: temporal: focus, seldom less miilticlistipliiiaiy,-explicit; and systematic approaches than-5years, and usually 20 or --' to-real vicirld problein-Solying led progreisively-to the more years, into the future: ,cieVelOprnent'of Several other related activities. The age r Analytical Multidisciplinary,and Of systems,"-,particularly in Spack and defense, in methodologiCal with Special'. -.the956's W kneSsect the-application of systems- a naly- emphasis on explicitness in irriplementation of 'a variety of forecastihg,,,modelingseena, Complex chardWare and software systems. Attention rio ,building, and related, and emphasis shiftecisoineWhat in the early.l960'S'to activities. 'more,ecOndMic-- and 'business-oriented planning with Participatory Problem- and :iinpleinenta- the= advent, cost=benefii and .cost- effectiveness tion-otienttd, with partieular analySes,aiicf=the emergence of program- planning- attention tothe social and pa! budgeting and decision analysis as twoOther problein- itical diinensioni of planning: oriented renu4idiseipiliteS. The groundwork =was thus, being laid, for the emergence of "strategic_ planning and fore6asting as iinpottant aorrip-onents- of a developing_ systemS science. And it was in the early to-mid-1960's that the,firsreal attempts were made atinstitutionaliz- Functions lot ROW) of ihe'FutOret Field' ing',.. futines researchwith methodological_ emphases on forecasting,,premodeling, and ,scenario generation-, We -arehoviin a anieWhal_better-position to-Niew activitieS.4, thobasicfunctionsor roles in the finures field in terms of the confluendeof its visionary, analytical, and par= ticipatory coniponents..IneVitably some degreeof idio- By Way:Of Contrast, the participatory roots of the syncratic abStraction is necessary _and nii,claim to futures field'are notyet clearly etched. No real signs of uniqueness or essentiality- isma_de'. The five basic func- participatory ftitures field moven-,,ts can yet be iden- tions are defined as follows: ,tifiedin the industrial or-corporate sectors. Inthe pub- lid sector; the varied citizen-based groups that have 1. Goals- Formulation. This role- Might be 'emerged since the early 1960's have not always identi- characterized in several ways: issue or problem defini- fieirthemSelves with the futures movement. And yet tion, future-image creation, and alternative futures_ such grotips indeed do :epresentvital component in generation. kis directly related to the visionary din, the futures field; particularly those that have sprung tip ponent of the futures field and therefore involves the in thlast several-yearsonder the severaflomorrow/ least explicit, most intuitive, and highly personalized Year 2000/goals" movements. Virtually all of these components of the field. groups are actively involved in State or local futures 2. Methods Development. This role includes the planning or goals generation with varying degrees of development of a body of explicit, organized-knoWl- success. Most of them do not yet have adequate edge on exploratory,and.tested approaches for event resourceS-4inancial, methodological,staff,or and trend forecasting, process modeling, and dita in- OtherilisetO achieve the objectives they have set for tegration. Together with the application=orientad themSelves. Andfewer still have very clear perceptions functiOn(seeltem 3 below), the methodologiCal orien- of how to orchestrate successfully the resources taiion stems from the analytical or research compo- requirecitO meet 'their stated objectives. And yet these nent of the futures field., nascent groups can represent a component of consid- 3. Applications. -One of the practical-objectives of erable vitality and importance to the futures field. This the futures field is to provide, inputs to planning and is .both-becatise-they focus on such tangible planning decisionmaking procesSes by helpingin expanding the issues as,population control, public transportation, range of useful alternatives, in evaluating future con- national, resource utilization, continuing ecludation, sequences of such alternatives, and in structuring pro- and land use, and because they seek broad citizen grams of intervention or action. This function May or 11t438 -May- not involve the application pfformal Existing Forms: Goal Setters,5 Methodologies. Researchers, Planners, Citizen Groups 4- akiipling. It is difficult to describe adequately the Process liy,which the results of futures research are Constructing any typology of existinginstitutional assiMilated z(or not) by -intended usersindividuals, forms in the futures fieldfor a field as poorlydefined _,grinips, Or organizations2The function involves social as this oneis not easy.Nevertheless, an initial psYchological and organizational aspects as much as it at,ernpt will be made to relate institutionalforms to the does infOrthation transfer, since the objectiveis to functions shown in Figure 1. It is recognizedthat some influence individual perceptions, behavior, and atti- ;naccuracies in representation will inevitablyresult. -tudes. Taken together with item 5, the coupling The purpose of the exercise is to assessthe degree of tied-closely to,the participatory roots of the match or mismatch between basic futuresfunctions futures field. and existing futures institutions: 5. Impleinemation. Ithages, methods. and plans An- "institution" may be defined as "asignificant !Mist eventually make themselvesfelt by "reduction to practice." Implementation actually embodies the -cut= practice, relationship or,organization ina-societk.ot futures institu- mination of one role and the start of another. First, it culture."6 The number and,variety of includes the interventions and actions actually taken to tions encompassed by this definition isquite large. In identify, .realize the objectives of a plan; at the same.timeit pro- recent years some attempts have been made to vides the information-feedback (e.g.,indidators) that enumerate, and'classify such entities.' Although com- parability of results is made difficult by the lack ofcrisp may lead to the generation ofdifferent sets agoals;the deVelopMent of new methodologies, or theinitiation of typologies, the following general picture emerges. modified programs of action. During the past 5,Years, the total number offutures Itis useful at this point to visualize these.five institutions (to be categorized more precisely subse- functions or- roles diagrammatically as- vertices of a quently),hasreniainedremarkablyconstant pentagon; as iliOVn in Figure 1. Also represented in the appramately ISO. To be sure, a current listing would diagrim is their relationship -to th; "roots" of the include a number of individuals and organizations not futures-field described earlier. The diagram will prove appearing 5 :years ago, and conversely. This may sug- maturing and "shaking Useful in the subsequent development of existing and gest that a certain amount of the normal possible institutional forms. out"is taking place. Or it may simply reflect GOALS //,/ METHODS IMPLFMENTATION41% ./iesi Pe4464, / COUPUNG4 4APPLICATIONS Figure 1. Diagrammatic representation of basic functions or roles in the futures field. 189 199 activity of "new starts" and "failtires" associated with ties or elsewhere in the public or private sector. any new exploratory activity. In any event, the abso- Although the variety of subforms is still large, if is by lute numbers themielves are prbbably somewhat mis- no means as heterogeneous a grouping as the others. In leading since the "80-20" ruleappears to be applicable fact, this grouping represents the most highly &vet- here; namely, -that 20 percent of the members (i.e., 30) oped,of futures institutional,forms. Functionally, the accounts for -80 percent of the futures-related activity. emphasiskof the group is on the applications- oriented The existing institutions are categorized into four activities and usually (but not always)on -major groupings: goal setters, research organizations, methodolpgy. corporate or government plantiinggroUps, and citizen Corporate or government' planning groups (50). groups. No a_ ttemPt will be made to classify particular This grouping includes moit -futures-oriented units individuals, organizations, or groups` in accordance (sometimes consisting of single individuals) that have with,this schenie for such an attempt is very likelyto evolved 4from related tactical planning, programing- suffer from inaccuracies and inisrepiesentations dueto planning-budgeting, corporate development, or tech- -faulty data and misperceived emphases. nological forecaiting activities. Ndritially such units Goal Setters (50 to 60)8 This grouping is intended to. are not diteetly involved in- research themselves. include particularly creative: individuals- contributing Instead they, serve as interfacers between the World out- to the futures field largely on their-own. They may be side and ihteinal organization operating Units. The foUndlin universities, research-organizations, or else- focus is thus, clearly on coupling activities. where...Many of them_would be identified as visionar- 'Citizen groups (10 -25). Thisigrouping includes the- ies; some might not even recognize that they are molT7a3namicand perhapi` froma futures members of the -futures community; others might standpointthe most unorthodok members. As noted, pursue futures only as a part-tithe activity. For each of .earlier,"the varied "tomorrow/ 2000/ goals" movenients these reasons, this is the fulziestand yet the most might not, at first, be included-as part of the futures importa,ntcategory, because it is from this sector that field. And yet, it is very likely that the success-orthe- Most of the highly imaginative image-oriented think- futures field depends critically on the effectiveness with ing emanates. which research results can-ultimately-be coupled-to, .Research organizations (25 to 30). Herein are and be used by, large segments of the interested public. included most independentprofit or nonprofit, com- Conceptually, it is useful to Overlay the dominant pletely &Partially (but not peripherally) dedicated, roles of each of the four institutional forms on the dia- large or smallresearch organizations engaged in gram of basit functions shown in Figure 1.This is done futures research. They may be found within universi- in Figure 2. GOALS /6Nol Sem IMPLEMENTATION METHODS FUTURES FIELD CCitizon Anson* Orgenkations Corporate/Gnomon; Plonoiog Groups COUPLING APPLICATIONS Figure 2. Overlay of institutional forms on basic function diagram. }400 Idealized Forms: Matching Form to Func- the "goals" node is likely to remain short indeed, tion whereas efforts to extend methods development toward goals formulation activities are likely to be more promising. At present no particular institutional EVen.a casual-glance at the diagram in Figure 2 is forms are known to exist that are designed to focus sufficient to highlight the pr ncipal structural problems primarily on this functional- linking aspect of the in the young and inchoate futtffes field. As will be futures field recalled, the original diagram in Figure I was intended to map the basic functions or roles of the futures field 2.Methods-Applications Link.This is, without with a definedfunction or role at each nude. Equally as doubt, the best connected functional link, It repre- important as the designation of each node is the degree sentstherelatively well-developed analytical or of connectivity existing among these nodes. Degree of research arm of the futures field. To be sure, a number connectivity may be interpreted here as a measure of of operational Problems do exist. Although itis the coherence or unity of the field. Alternatively, it may belieied that methods development and =application be interpreted as a measure of the transactional activity functions develop best when they coexist, an almost ,betweefi baiic functions. For example, one of the universal tendency exists to slight methodological simplest. connectivity patterns is ,one in which only efforts, in the press of applications-oriented activities. adjacent nodes are interconnected. In principle, Nevertheless, a variety of institutional fairs exists that however, every node can be connected to every other are presently forging this linkwith a set of organiza- node. tional characteristics (size, composition, structure, In .the present context, institutional forms may be support mix,_and so forth) that are increasingly well viewed primarily-as "vehicles for facilitating intercon- understood. nection 'anlong the functions as shown, in- Figure 2.. 3.Applications- Coupling Link.The connectivity Thus the "relational" aspect of futures institutions is along this link is generally very poorAlereineiists the stressed here, without ignoring the "practice" and "or- currently most critical institutional probleni in the ganization" aspettS contained the original- defini- futures field: the absence of effective mechanisms for tion. This is because the development of the futures coupling iesearch t'esults to ultimate users in both pri- field is currently being hampered most byjust those vate and public sectors. It is believed that the absence shortcomings that are reflections of "poor connectiv- of linking institutionshereis seriously, liampering the ity": fragmentatiotkof efforts, poor liaison and collab- development of the futures field. And yet this problem oration, lack of *wren= and communication, prolif- is only now being given the attention it deserves. eration of effortsttand so forth. What Makes thisparticularly difficult -isthat A simple- circuit of the five links shown in Figure 2 research-organizations areat-present limited in their can provide some useful insights both about the exist- ability to develop"coupling arms." Aside from the lim- ing futures institutions and the requirements for new or ited ability of an analyticaliy Oriented research staff to modified institutional forms. Further insightsmay be function effectively in a social psychological (not just obtained by including other links (e.g., goals-coupling data transfer) context, the basically idiosyncratic or goals-application), but for simplicity this is not done nature of couplingactivities requires a time-consuming here. "hand crafting"sffort as well. The function is thus more properly performed by planning units locatecr 1.Goals-Methods Link.The connectivity along this link is poor or, nonexistent. This is becat;e few, if any,, within the organizations or grotips they are to serve. systematicmethods are known for identifying critical Operationally, such units should appear very much issues, for forMidating goals, fof constructing alterna- like research organizations at one "end" and very much tive futures, Or for providing early warning signals. At like analogues of parent organizations or groups present it appears unlikely that those involved in goal- at the other. No such institutional forms in either the setting processes will be disposed, or able, to contrib- public or private sector are known to exist at present. ute directlyfp advances in futures methodology. It is 4. Coupling - Implementation Link.This linkis somewhat more likely,thatmethodologically oriented weak or nonexistent in the futures field. In the public researchers may be able to elicit useful insights from sector this is where most citizen groups are beginning goal formulators on the intellectual and conceptual to operate with the dual objectives of increasing citizen processes used, if serious and systematic attempts to do awareness by participatory planning efforts (coupling) so were made. In other words, the link emanating from and of laying the groundwork for implementation of 191 201 such-plans (implementation). Although some groups Ideally,what is neededare institutional forms with have successfully performed the coupling function, the following- features: high coinpeterme in the they now appear to be faltering somewhat in the imple- problem-solving applications areas of the futures field, mentation phases; It is too :early -to judge whether while at the same time maintaining close contact with enierging institutional forms can bridge this_gap. /methods research at one end and consumer needs at the S. Inipkmentation-Goals Link. This link is largely other. undefined and uncharted In the futures field. it is possi- Operationally, the size of the group need not exceed- ble,. but rare indeed, for goal-setters to be 20 to 30 professionals operating either in the publicor implementation- oriented as well. (This doesnot mean private sectors. The "coupling" arm would be the most that useful social indicator or social audit data is not of diffcult to develop and Maintain. For this, staff interest to such individuals.) And it is even less likely members with user-oriented sensitivities would ibe that implementing groups will be concerned withgen- required who were willing to devote considerable time eral images of the futureat the implementaticin stage in interfacing activities. the foeusis- far -more specific, concrete, and action- oriented. Whether effective institutional formscan be 3. C-Forms. Effective futures coupling institutions created to bridge this gap in the nee tennis not clear. are presently nonexistent in both the public or private sectors. It is true that particular individuals (i.e.-, futu- What are..the implications,.then, forluture institu- ,rists in- residence;) oftenattempt to perform this func= tional foims in the futures field? For themore imme- tion for Orivate corporations or government agencies. diateluture, no new institutional forms seem to be But the results are generally disappointing because the requited. Rather, a need does exist to reshape existing resources and level of understanding are not matched forms along three dimensions in which "linkages"are to the tasks at hand. either weak, or virtually nonexistent. The three modi- fied institutional forms will be designated in teems of Ideally, coupling institutions are designed to provide their dominant roles: "M" (Methods), "A" (Applica- bridges between ,applications or -Strategic planning tions), and "C" (Coupling) .10 outputs and the ultimate users of such outputs. Again, the required functional span is such that_some,staff 1. M-Forms. As already noted, research on futures must be engaged in applications activities while others methods is almost invariably slighted when it becomes must work closely with "line operating"- staff who are integral with applications-oriented activity. And yetan immersedin-tacticalplanning and diy-to-daY almost certain sterility in methods research is the result decision making. When the two are separated. Ideally, what is needed is an institutional form that focuses on futures methods Operationally, the si..e of such units depends directly development; while at the same time providing a link to on the size of the parent organization or group within goal-formulation.and applications-oriented activities. which the C-form may be embedded. In effect it must The functionah spanning required is large but not appear as an amalgam of a staff and line activity. It is impossible. even-conceivable-that it could function with k very small core of pi,:lfessionals (i.e:, 5100) supported by a Operationally, the number of professionals need not larger number of "flow-through" staff from other line -be large (10-to 20) and such a unit might function ,and staff organizations. equally well within a university or a nonprofit institute setting. An important feature of the operation would In summary, diagrammatically, these idealized be the "flow-through" quality of some staffnotably institutional forms are mapped as shown in Figure 3. the goal setters or image generators who are not likely tciwant to maintain strong organizational affiliations. At the same time, the core professional staff must be Some Researchable Issues Related to sufficiently stable to pursue particular applications Basic Roles problems to completion and to provide stimuluS and feedback to methods development activities. Structuring institutional forms in order to maintain a suitable balance among required roles or functions is 2. A-Forms. No shortage of applications-oriented difficult. Equally important, however, are a host of analyses exists in the futures field. Much of this work is institutionally, methodologically, substantively,,anth not particularly responsive to client needs, and cperationally related issues stemming,froni the basic difficulties normally exist in coupling the results of that functions of the futures 'fielkthese issues are critical to which is responsive to ultimate users. the further developmentOffhe field. Many are endemic 192_ COALS laSPLEMBITATION METHODS V A- 'firm/mama Figure 3. Idonizsd institutional toms in the futures fold. to research or planning activities generallyfutures or Methodologically Related Issues otherwise; others are brought into sharp focus by the futures field in particular. The major need related to the methodological role is- the equivalent-Of a "unified field theory." Methodolog- =Institutionally Refitted !UM ical proliferation funs highlit futures research, Om- pounded'bS, similar proliferation of technique from Institutionalized activities of any kind bring their other sister analyticalactivities(e.g.,operations own special:, brand-- of: problems with _them. In the research, systems analysis, decision analysis; planning- futures field these are aggravated by the poorly defined programing-budgeting, and: technology assessment). ,botindaries of field, the wide range of interests and For example, abObt 50 technological forecasting disciplines to be accommodated, and the highly intel- methods are purported to exist.12 lectualized and creative nature of its activities. Thus questions of working- group structure, orientations, What is clearly'not needed -is- another fashionable and effectiveness loom large in discharging required name for a minor variant to an already known princi- roles or functions in the futures field. ple or technique. Instead,a serious start should be made in structuring a ,"science of complexity" th-at shin Among the.mostimportant researchable issuesil are to integrate the quantitative and qualitative, analytical the following: and judgmental, and short-term and long-term Retrospective studies of factors (e.g., composition, approachet to systems planning and analysis.13 A .size, and age) affecting group creativity and produc- prime objective is to understand and put the methodol- tivity in the futures field: ogies used in the ftitures field in such a context. Exploration of the role of advocacy and its impact Among the most important researchableksues are on organizational effectiveness in the futures field. these: Study of the influence of "public interest" status thatis,profit or nonprofit structureon the Retrospective studies of the utility of futures objectives and performance of organizations in the methods and the factors that led to their success or _Attires field. failure. Analysis of the sources of organizational support in Development of methods for making value orienta- the futures field and the relationship to problems tions of futures researchers as explicit as possible so addressed and conclusions reached ("gun for hire" that the possible influence on research output may syndrome). be assessed more easily. Study and improvement of communication patterns Exploration of the role Of multidisciproary inputs of (or "networking') among institutions in the futures several experts to produce joint forecasts, models, field in terms of nature, frequency, and extent of and scena.ios or alternative futures; particular at- information exchange and transfer. tention should be directed to the role of group judg- 193 203 ments as communicating and integrating vehicles to Among the most important researchable issues are help bridge organizational- boundaries, these: 'Study of the. principal data integrating or relitt.ng techniquescross-impact analysis, scenario Retrospective studies-of the role of futures research building, gaming/simulation, and othersto detect( outputs in the realization of perceptual shifts on an underlying similarities and differences. individual or group baiis. Development of an array of quantitative and Exploration of the factors influencing credibility of qualitative validating measures that can be applied research outputs as a'function of persbnal and local "to futures outputs. "cultuMl" characteristics. Analysis of behavioral and attitudinal change SUIsetantively, Related Issues processes triggered by alternative images of the future. The major need related to the applications role is the Study of barriers to micro change processes. -charactarizaticin add understanding of social change. Evaluation of relative effectiveness and role of processes at thernacro (or societal) level. Any futures individualized "hand crafting" micro change-pro- application- inherently deals with changeeither cesses versus group- "culture-modification" micro change as it has ifieeititedlit the Past for possible guid- change processes. ance in the _pretent or, more importantly, as it may Oceiffin the future. The dynamics of such processes are now very poorly understood, almost in any social con- Some Speculations on the Future of the text. The ultimate objective is thus to assist in the de- Futures Field. velOpment of a "science of change." Among the most important researchable issues are The futures field is still clearly in an embryo:ac stage the following: of development and it is -very diffictiltto. perceive the DeveloPinent of a language and framework for forms it may take at maturity. More difficult Still is the characterizing social, change processes including drawing of any clear picture-of the evolution of -the entire body of prOcesses aimed at advancing the role of determinative, formative, and random aspects, as- wellas such basic elements as values, goals, and indi- intentionality in hurnan affairs, -i.e., format planning, ces of social performance.1 9.nalysis, and deciiionniaking. Study. of the role of societal images in social change It is a Virtual certainty that-the futures field will processes and of how such images should be incor- eventually be subsumed in some larger-contextbe' porated into futures activities." this a science of-change or a science of CoMplekity Exploration of the 4fiamics of social change from under some other rubricand very likely in accor the standpoint of the occurrence of continuities and dance with society's proclivity to function on the basis discontinuities, nature of- critical_ time constants, of selective attention and inattention, a new social positive and negative feedback effects, and so forth. planning focus will gradually develop. But the futures Analysis of the role of institutions in social change field will,leave, as have othetsimilat activities in the processes vis-a-vis lead/lag relationships, adapta- past, its distinctive marks. These are likely to include: tion,capabilities, and renewal inechanisms. Study of the relationship of change processes at the A deeper understanding of social change processes macro (societal) level to change processes at the at macro and Micio.levels. micro (individual or group) level. A more effective integration of qualitative (or judgmental) and quantitative (or analytical) compo- Operationally Related Issues nents in planning. A more balanced multidisciplinary approach to The-major need related to the coupling role is in planning, with the social sciences as full partners characterizing and understanding change processes at with the physical and analytical sciences. the micro (or individual) level: This, after all, is the lev- el at which most change processes beginwhere indi- In the long run, however, the futures field: may vidual perceptions, behavior, and attitudes are formed. contain the seeds of its own transformation (or even Also, in view of the strong participatory roots of the demise) through a demystification of social planning. futures field, considerable attention should be paid to Perhaps not unexpectedly, information technology the nature of the processes by which such participation the centerpiec: of the postindustrial societymay play is to be fostered and realized. a pivotal role in this transformation. 194 204 In a-very real sense, the 'COO lekity of the problems ter access and interaction with each other, as well as to we face has led us to specialization in planning as it has a new dal§ of intermediaries. In the Second,-Participa- elsewhere in society: As a.reshlt,the basic activities,of tory planning and decision- making (involving imple- thinking'(or, "imaging") and doing (or "acting") have mentors) at grass-roots leyeli can increasingly become been pulled-farther apart. The diagram in Figure 2 may kreality, with the important feature that effective link- properly be vieWed, as an artificiality in which a com- ages can now also be established-with goal fofmnla- plex "tinkerS-to,evers-to-dhance" (methods-to- tors. The pentagon of. Figure 1 thus may hoyf, become a- appliCatiolis4Q-coupling) has been substituted for the trip. ngle, or perhaps even aline where the shortened -more- direct "goals-implementation" linkage. The two response times perMit rapid iteration, interleaving of basic players are in actualitygoal setters or image gen- thinking and doing, and the amalgamation hfincre- erators anthimpleMentors. But these are alsothe most mentalism and rationalization in planning. 'difficult to join because of the lack of a common Ian- Perhaps these are no more than fanciful images: But- luage:and-the different philotophiCal orientations. :perhaps theysuggestreal:possibilities. for coping:With.. -intermediation of some kind will still be required to increasing complexity by turning that complexity back sort out and evaluate options and consequences, even on itself in,,providing information monitoring, gather-; in-th eking rtfit'But the forihhf that intermediation will ing,. analyzing, and' disseminating CaPabilities 'foe likely change: This may be viewed in two stages. In the sociallAinning,and action a particularized erilhodi= -first, the goal setters may be prbided vehicles for eas- ment of the Noosphere of Pierre TeilhardAeChardin. FOOTNOTES Note. Anumber of stimulating conversations with Robert Johansen J McHale, op cit., and %V W. Simmons.Exploratory Planning of the staff of the Institute for the Future served to clarify and extend Briefs,(Greenwich, Conn. October 1973). some of the concepts presented in this paper. This paper is 8 Best estimates of the number of institutions inclue:d in each 1974 by the Institute for the Future, Inc. All rights are Copyrighted grouping. reserved. 9 Some speculations for the more distant future appear in the last section of this chapter. i "Futures field" (or "futuces")is used synonymously with, 10 Thcsc terms arc, used here only as convenient designators. "futurism","fut urology," or "fut uristics." "Futures research" is used These issues deal with the whole array of futures field functions in a narrower sense to denote the research or analytical arm of the or roles defined earlier. futures field. 12 E. Jantsch,Technological Forecasting in Perspeciive (Paris: Typological Survey of Futures Research in the 2 John McHale, OECD, 1967). U.S.,Contract H SM-42-69-47. National Institute of Mental Health, 1970. 13 This corresponds, in pan: to the largely unrealized objectives of general systems theory. Ibid. 14 Albert and Dorina Wilson,Toward the Institutionalization of 4 R. Amara, "The Institute for the Future. Its Evolving Role."The Change,Working Paper W P-11, Institute for the Future (August Futurist(June 1973), pp. 123-126. 1970). R. Amara. "Toward a Framework for National Goals and 5 An alternate term nay be "Image generators." Policy Research,"Policy Sciences(March 1972). pp. 59 70. 6 Webster's Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary (Springfield. Ma.. '` Fred Polak, The Imageof the Future(San Francisco Jossey- G. & C. Merriam and Co., 1966). Bass Inc., 1973). 195 205 Communications in Futuresesearch Ha rold=A:.linstone Typology. B. The Extrapolators Thc philosophy.that the-future Is an extension_ of: The title `-`futurist" servesas anunbrellnfor a wide the past, Ehence -trend extrapolation- is the :,favored- speetrwri_of individuals just as the label "syStents technique for studying the future. Thetrend maybe inalyit." For this discussion- it is helpful to categorize_ linear, exponential, orTcyClical, but it is de_ tetniined the fuiuristsin feints of two Paraineters: (a) the futures entirely.by data (i.e.,. information.abont thepast): paradigin and (b) -thefuturist'S background'and disci- The fact' that over: 90,percent..ofr alVforeeastsnre plinarrinterest: Arend-,extrapolatiMis.suggests thepipulatity-ofithis:, paradigm., Herman Kahn's "SurpriSeifree"'.ftiturt Paradigm Grouping- Avith -StreSs on-extrapolation of population and 1 GNP'falls in this class.: He assumes that the Paratit= "The;re appear to be four basic typesas shown in Table eters significant to the past gerieratilin will be equally descriPtiVe of the century. tie A:-ThepisCnuiiters and MeadOws,4standard model" 'Of. the world; based This-,paradigin -involves -the application of a dis- on data &mil 190601910, runs t o the year400 with counting factor to the future (and the Past): The indi- -the assumption that the elements and interactions vidhal-Concentrates on the present and tir discount- the model,ri.e., its-struCture;:terriain Unchanged in ing factor lithits his concern to the immediate future the next --130 years. The' businessman who asks tor (andirrtnierliate past). This subject is treated in detail the "most likely"-forecast of-market of:needs-or of inn later-section. population or lovernment budget expects -n trend Table 1. Paradigms of Futon-its' TYPE- PHILOSOPHY TOOLS CHA11/+CTERISTICS DISCOUNTERS Interest only in Disinterest in near term problems forecasts Improvisation ,EXTRAPOLATORS Future is Trend Emphasis on data extension extrapolation, Empiricism of past Modelibased Lockean I.S. onpast GOAL SETTERS Idealism Normative (needs) Emphasis on values Future can analyses Creation of new models be created Imagination, vision Lgibnizian I.S. CYBERNETICISTS Combining of Interaction of Adaptive past and exploratory and Alternative futures future creative normative forecasting Singerian I.S. approaches (feedback) .----Use.of.multiple tools I.S. = Inquiring Systems. 196 200 extrapolation. The leontiepriput-output Background/Interest Grouping entirely deperidenthupon'information about the past In systems studies-two strands of deVelopment pro- to create aforetast. ceeded in parallel with very little communication for Goczi-Eetters almost a Whole generation (1940's to 1960's): (I) Von. We:includehere both utopians and dystOpians. This Bertalanffy-Canie:to-systenis from a backgrOtind, in _group, does not believe that the futureis an biology. :He developr,d .general. systems theory and a eittensiOn,of the past-. It drearfis of a-future (usually following -in the life sciences. (2) Independently the only one) which.is new-and different. Imagination electronics-aerospace ci'mmtinity,developed: Systerns, .a_nd'creativity play a vital role as, a new future, is analysis,along.engineering lines. Withithe-additiOn'ot designed: In Ozbekhan's terms, the,:us is on w,,hat Military-oriented operations ,researchers and econo- we "ought to dO",or.not do rather than on what has mists, the stage-was set for cost- effectiveness. Within Iieen done or.is -most likely to-be done. New values each strand internal-comthunications were adequate,, are -readily 'accepted:Charles 'Reich's"Con-, -but,the two enjoyedlittle coritacwith each other-until seiousness AL' B.F.-Skinner's prograrnined man, social systenis became a common concern. and_the_doorrisday,prophets are all examples. Most The situation-infutures researotris'more-complex. of the world's .religions and cultures' reflect-utopian The separate strands include econninists Who_proddee' views of the future. The Book- of-Isaiah pictures an economics- .threcasts,technOlogilts who generate. ideal society, Plato's "Politeia" envisions ,an ideal state, and Marx's socialist society is- a modern -technological-forecasts, military analysts who deVelop threat estimates,-businessylanners who do research on :normative-vision: As Pcilak -mates, the story of future markets, sociologists, who study-social-trends;- salvation always operates as a projection backward, and artists/writers who mold ftiturist ideas:intO:var- from the future into the present.!. Goal setters focus ious forms. Then there are popularizers,who_produce on a destination. If they also concern themselves bestsellers or television series about the future and, Concretely with ways to carve out a trail to reach the finally, entrepreneurs who organize future-oriented- destination, they may well move into the next activities. And even within one discipline_ there rare- category. wide variations in paradigms. Our, time frame is alb D. The Cyberneticists much more extended than that of-the systems area. This paradigm calls for an integration of past and Sociologist_ C. S.-Gilfillan produced his first work-in future orientations or exploratory and normative 1907 and "Recent Social Trends" was published-in forecasting. The past is recognized as important in 1933. Futuristic constitutes a very oldif not always establishing the initial directions for the future, but honoredoccupation. Our emphasis in this paper will new future's are considered ar. a. basis for changing be on the recent years (1960's and 1970's). the trend. Feedback is thus an essential means in de- Table 2 presents an overview of the combinations of veloping an appreciation of the future. Unlike the both groupings which are readily identifiable. _Repre- goal setter, the cyberneticist is not committed to one sentative names ,are shown; at times one name may future but considers alternatives. He fits John Platt's appear in two categories. "wagon train" concept. The immediate movement is determined by the past and present. Beyond is a region which,can be reconnoitered and the direction Communication Among Futurists of the wagon train changed in consequence thereof. As the train moves on, further changes are likely as Within a Single ParadigmInterest Block the terrain is traversed and new reconnaissance This represents the simplest communication prob- about previously unknown areas becomes accessi- lem. There are invisible colleges and individuals tend to ble. A distant objective is assumed but may be be familiar with one -another's writings in areas (or adjusted if the path indicates that it is no longer rep- subsets of areas) such as technology-cybernetics, sonable. sociology-extrapolation, and business-goal setting. The paradigms are idealized till the sense that they For example, consider the intersection technology- rarely occur in pure form. THIS the extrapolator may extrapolation. There are professional organizations apply considerable distOunting-in basing the data for which provide trend extrapolations to their members extrapolation only on the recent past, or the goal (e.g., Electronic Industries Association's "Electronics setter may be influenced by ideas and movements 1985") and professional discipline-oriented journals which have proven successful in the past. which present articles on trend extrapolations. 197 207 "Iri :the blocks which ineitide the:goal setter paradigm, 'Research Instittite,and the j-ludsonInStitute.foi;bUsi= .WeAliiilstrofig.perionalities Stitrotindeer by. dikiples iess.or government who 4:inn a clOiely kith communication system: Omni- freqUently the Sub- :Pies are Robin Theotiald,John,Galtinig; jects are specifically cOnimiSsiOne0y the client. Jour-- Paolo Soleri, nals,such-as Futuies and Technological :Forecasting and :Bickininstei:-Fuller: Teilliard, de Chardin has. -d*Oked:a sac ietrbe_ating .h iS-natne; farid Social,' Change were, created in.:1968' and; ,1909,, respectively; to serve as Major- fornMs,fo.cotiMiuniOaz Books ebriStituje a favorite communicationmethod tion for both methodolOgy. and 'substantive forecasts. in areas SuciiiScYbeinetics-teOhnOlogyancigoal _ 'Setter- . A_ reaent, survey-indicated the following Organizi.; Polak, Reich, Skinner; 'Martino, tional breakdown of authors fOr these journals: AyieS;-and JaiitSch are all atithors of significant bOoks. Author Affiliation A tailor Affiliation; TF&SC Between Parnilitinv4Anterest-Blocke Futures GOyernment- R74 Ileremeitind'boiksiiePorts, journals, anclOonferen- 25% des:n-the,prineipaiiineins of,comthuniCatioti. Books Nonprofit Institutes 22% 19W SUCK:as-tlie*atiWiepei!s' the-tear *0and.:Med= 1% dOWs et to-Growth are widely read for .fher.stibitantive :forecasts;, iantsch',S Technological` *First iour years of publications 114%military .FOrecets:taig-40 TersOectiye-is=,inethodolOgy=oriented. Repoit§- are -PrOd deed -Stich _as the In Europe,Wealso Kaye theYteiich"Puturibiesnand, , "In'stitute for the Future, The Butures Group; Stanford the-German "Analysen_und,,,prOgnosen." Table 2. FUNCTIONAL ARCHITECTS SOCIOLOGISTS WRITERS' TYPE ORGANIZATIONS Business TECHNOLOGISTS THEOLOGIANS ECONOMISTS ARTISTS Military 4, 4 4. Unsophisticated ,DISCOUNTERS MOST businesies OF THE 'PUBLIC Conventional Most Bell Most "Year 2000" business technologists Gilfillan economists (Kahn-Wiener) planners 4- Kahn McHale ,EXTRAPOLATORS Utility industry Military agencies Lenz Creative Dubos de Chardin Galbraith Burgess marketing Gabor Galtung Theobald Bradburi, organizations Fuller Reich Capek Soleri Skinner GOAL SETTERS Claike Drucker Spilhaus Saint Simon Kafka Bennis Orwell Harman most' De Gaulle science fiction Defense: Ayres Dalkey Boulding "Limits to RAND Forrester Michael Leontief Growth" 'CYBERitlefICISTS systems Jantsch -4" analysis Martino Ozbekhan groups Turoff De Jouvenel Gordon 198 208 Conferences constitute a'tother popular mode -of professional society meeting might feature a guest_ communication. EXaMples: speaker, Who, presents-a talk -abOut t he- futtireoften niorein the vein of etiterainment than serious insight. One exception is the American AssoCiation4Or -SOci0or -PaiticiPation Advancement of Science and its journalScience; another -is theBulletin olAtothic SciitOts.Both-have .ourniiier of eonmerce/ -Invitation and open Business= BUsiness School economics a serioussoncernwith the interactions of politics and -SP'orisaricrannual: science, most frequently foCtising on short range con- ':ForeeisitOnference cerns, however. U.S. Ali Force -Invitation Technology - (J. Martino) Military The discipline orientation of tnat academicians and .National Academy of Invitation Technology Engineering profeSsionalS predisposes them againStititer- or trans'- House,-Va. Invitation Teehnology- disciplinary- Modes of thOught We are facing; here a, Sociology longtradnion:Which is extremely: difficult to change, Npbacli Symposium 'Invitation 'SOciOlogy; Technology The Ph:D. dissertation is a caseqii point., tlorces:the: Bellagio Syinposium 4nvitation' SociolOgy- candidate to- kitow more and more' about less and Technology less;' ."-cUlthitiatinglit a diS'sertatiOn'whicitonly a'handr,: World FuttiiaReiearch 1970, 72 Open Sociology; .--COnfereneel 1968, 73 Invitation Humanities 'fill of his peers can Understand: As Robert Straus haS Tech Assessment 1973-Open Business= noted: TechnolOgy departments have beam* themrincipat bases of industrial ManagementOpen Payments Business! :.,.-Because almost all' Brigh47' :Technology ,power within universities SINCRaFranceOpenpayment Business- departments--are identified-with specific disci Technology plines, their politicalfunctionsinaye:gen served MBP.,-Germany Open Payment Business- Technology as forces to.preserve_anaChronistic disciplinary identities, to enforceohstilete COMpartmentaliia= of teaching, and todigeourage -formal TheSe -conferences are dominated by presentations Lion researchandteaching activitiesthatcross of papers (which are sometimes' collected in book fox m disciplinary lines. This .-has 'heen yigorously later); The invitational Confererides alSo facilitate-the supported by many faculty -Who wish ,to, work, Operation Of itivisible_C011eges. Participants often comfortably,delineated areas of ,establish contacts at the conference and maintain them within specializationandsitbspecialiiation,-unper- `betWeen meetings. turbed hy the needtorecognizebroader -It somewhat surprising that futurists confine implications iti their oWit spheres of interestand themselves to higkiy_onyentional means of communi- blissfullyoblivioustothe iimplicationsthat Cation. The conferences themselves have not been as developments outside of their discipline may -innovative -in theirmodus operandi ascertain profes- have to their own special interests.2 futures Siohal society meetings which have no explicit Even if futures research' were established disoi- orientation (e.g., 'some Institute of Management Scien- pline the compartmentalization:, would inhibit com- ces meetings). TechniqUes such asDelphi conferencing munications with the bulk of academicianS. Since most and advanced media techniques are not yet in use. professional people are the product of ahighly discipline-oriented training, theirperspective also tends to be constrained, although perhapsnot as sev- Communications with Nonfuturistt erely as that of the academician. This= isparticularly true of lower and middle levels in governmentand Nonfuturist Academicians andPrniessioniOs industry. The traditional discipline orientation tends, tolimit Consider the planner in the armored vehicle fieldin the futures interest academicians and other profes- the Army. He may be concerned with the planning of sionals to their own narrow fields. Besidesoccasional future tanks, possibly covering a period of 10 to 15 fOrecaSts pertinent .to those fields and found in their years. He may even be exposed toalternative world professional journals, their principal source of futures scenarios involving diverse types ,of warfare. If heis only material is the- popular press. Excerpts from books presented with a scenario which considers that the he will,try to such -as The Limits to GrowthandThe Year 2000are type of war after 1980 is nuclear war, -published in newspapers and magazines. In addition, a assess how tanks can be used innuclear war.=Whe is 1(6 205 giyen a scentrioindiCating that theonly kind of war The General Punk will be guerrilla war, he will-determinehow to employ tanks in giteirilla war. It will prably not occur to him The individual's concern with the future isstrongly that in eithercase tanks may no longer be needed. And reflected in his children: Traditionally theyhave pro- if 'that thought does cross-his:mindit will be quickly vided him with a form of immortality,as well as-a extitiguished. by the recognition thatthismight imply means of security in his old age. Life insurance and sav- the ;rid of the agency for which he isplanning. In the ings forchildren's college educations:are concrete typical bureaucratic organization theoriginal raison means of implementing this concern today. The indi- d'etreslowly, but inexorably; loses its primacyonce the vidual is also conscious- of his own future in terms of ,:orgariiiation is well established-to,the goal of self= health and economic security, Thelatter is afunda- perpetuation. Consideration of the futtire is limitedto mental consideration in.the support of organizational those aspeets-Which-Will support thisobjective. stability and'includes seniority andtenure. Theidenti- fication of the security of the individualwith thempe, ,Anotherl reflection ,of the ,bias the -military- is the tu ation,Of_ the ,organization..which manipulation of the future, "threat." InflatedordiS=-turniresponsible for the rigidity and perManence --torted intelligence data are made public-tosupport which characterize most organizations7C:hinge-is. fiqUeStS for higher defense: budgets. The fictitious often interpreted as danger, i.e.,a threat to security; "missile gap" in 1960 and Pentagon:press -releases and is therefore resisted? about new Soviet submarinebaseiltimed- to coincide The general public constitutes the largeit with-Congressional- budget hearings body with are easesin point. which the futurist interaCts: Elected -officials ,buiiness_ planning .activities :tend- neceS- -to- -be ,sakily take their cue froiti-the ittitudesof the public. strongly blisedin their view-of the future.Petrolduni If companies and automobile-manufacturers the people diSeolnit the future, theirrepresentatives have -con- will generally follow- (exceptions- sistently ignored forecasts which warnofpossibilities, are those Who- lead or suggest alteinatives, dettitriental to their eStabliShed ratherlitati follow). The subject of' discounting isthus at the heart of the problem of communication between lifies_.ofblisiness. They, mayeven- go to-considerable futurist and thepublic. pains to undermine 6r4lisdediesuchfutures sttidieS _public rel4tions and other techniques. Politicians sub- The higher strata of the socio-economic hierarchy_ sist on a base of- poptilar- support and thereforeuse. tend to take some interest in -futures activities, fOre_casts to strengthen this support. As-discussed in zGliaiier 5, Hitler% "thousand-year although thii may _well' be placed in the categoryof Reich" is illustra- entertainment. They read books like Toffler's tiveof tilt.- use of forecasts to manipulate public opin- "Future ion. Shock" and magazineS like The Futurist; theysee Ca- "`" movies like "A.__Clockwork Orange" and "Fahrenheit 451." They enjoy plays like Thus we conclude that many potehtial-usersof fore- "R.11,11-." and pert__ formances like those of Buckminster Fuller. They casts misuse-such information to advance thecause of may -their-organizations or theirown fortunes. The picture join a local chapter of the World FutureSociety, attend a SYNCON gathering, -is not _entirely one-sided, however.Consider the crea- or become involved in a communications network such tion of the new Office of TechnologyAssessment. The as that developed by Robert Theobald: The latter two represent origin of the concept appears to have beencommunica- interesting tions between Congressman Emilio Q.Daddario, new communications concepts. SYNCON isan acro- MIrs.Jerome Wiesner, and Charlestindbergh.Dad- nym for "synergistic convergence" and is the-,braitt- schild of Barbara Marx Hubbard and her dario- undertook the drive to implementtechnology Committee assessment with his Congressional subcommittee in for the Future. In its current formata large grOup.of people meet for 3 or 4 days to discuss societal 1965, and the effort reached fruition in 1973.Of course, goals and aims. :nitially they it- might,beargued. that technologyassessment is only are partitioned into_8to 15 groups depeftcling upon background marginally future- oriented. The basis_ for itsneed and interest. resides not in--future technology nearly as much as in The:groups are physically arranged current, technology. As Harvey Brooks 'has noted, the to form a wheel social and environmental difficulties as shown in Figure 1. Each group is reasonably homo- we encounter geneous, and the common interest facilitates its discus- -today are consequences ofnew or excessively massive sions. Ifi the second stage, pairs ofgroups are com- -applications- of old and familiar technologies.This bined for further discussions. The combining explains the relatively limited- role of process technological continues until there is onlyone group. Individuals of forecasting-in technology assessment.3 entirely different backgroundsare forced to. interact 200 01.7.4111Md...11/10,,--$.1,- .. ,z).3-0.ontsi borici4 .. ,1,:0,0110'''cl°° ...... 4 /041 ' lickCiDU CTION /0x0i, // e4Z` #$#cio '6, //.. Cf 0 0 S li, ti- I COORDINATION -HUB i/eMigueuoileonpl:t° SQ33NIV130 N." 0'II443° AB010,41.11'6°g91 t4o0P1' oft. UNEXPLAINED .... °." PHENOMENA SOURCE !minuet toe for the Atm, lee. Figure 1. The SYNCON wheel. 201 211 (e.g., artists-and:engineers). Thus the traditional corn- dating to desired changes and historical as well asspa- partmeritalization iS systematically broken down. The tial linkages. The overall impact is often felt in the group discussions'are ilterspersed with infOrmal talks occurrence of unexpected or counterintuitive Conse- by futurists, intuviews, and other presentations. quences. Closed circuit television pipes this input to each group and also:monitors the progress of the group discus- Clearly the traditional scientific approach of struc- sions. SYNCON sessions have been held at Southern turing, partitioning into subsystems, and analysis of Illinois University, in Los Angeles, and Washington, each element is inadequate for such systen kational D.C. microdecisions all too frequently lead' to .atiOnal TheObald's net- involves newsletters and other writ., macrodecisions. Even the bold work of Forrester and ten, materials (e.g., the magazineFutures Conditional) Meadows in system dynamics and the scenarios. of circulated to interested -individuals with feedback Kahn and Wiener manage to treat only the tip of the emphasized. iceberg. Holistic insights must be obtained and com- municated. A narrative's not only an unsuitable meatii Some members of the=lower strata of the socio-eco- to communicate a painting by Van Gogh or Picasso; it nomic hierarchyfind satisfaction, inprophetic also-fails to- communicate -a future' urban' environ- spellbinders such as Jean Dixon and Edgar Cayterlh ment. A picture cannot communicate either an orgasm Most cases they are too much immersed in the day-to- or -a societal breakdown. The weakness in holistic com- day prbblems of living to spend their leisure time in the munications is seen most glaringly in scenario writing, pursuit of the future. which utterly fails to transmit the significance of a pro- A fundamental problem which inhibits commUnica- jected future. In traditional fashion it tends to project a ,tion Is system complexity. The individual is familiar few currently meaningful parameters and neglects to with the world which immediately surrounds him in consider many potentially crucial ones (which also 'time,and space. He may be able to project onesdra feW change)' as well as their numerous interactions. Our changes and superimpose them on his,present world. normal failure is not the inability to derive a "correct" He is unable, however, to consider simultaneouslya scenario, but- rather to deriveanyholistic representa- large nuMben_oEsimultaneous- changes in elements of tion other than "more of the same." the -system and their interactions. He can visualize increased crowding with a growing number of automo- A novelist may have the talent to communicate the biles and see the likelihOod of more freeways. But he meaning of a complex future more effectively: Orwell's has difficulty detemiining the impact of a shift from /084and Kafica'sTrialareexamples of such capability. suburbia to,a different communal life style cut private We must explore communication concepts outside the transportation, or even of the impact of high taxes on range familiar to the academic community. I want to automobile use. This of course, the same difficulty make it clear that I am not referring to simplistic devi- which impedes the act of forecasting itself. A conse- ces such as placing Fuller geodesic domes, abstract quence of the complexity of the systems of most inter- paintings, or space vehicles on exhibita procedurede est is the difficulty of communicating insights about rigueurat some future oriented meetings. The works suelii,Systems to others. We will consider this problem of Holling,s Johnson,6 and Schuler are more indicative further in the next section. of the need. Among the innovative paths are the fol- lowing; Communication Dilemma No. 1: System I. Use of the computer as a high level communica- Complexity tor The computer can give the individual a new ability to "play" with complex systems, to get the "feel" orex- Systems which involve nature, man, society, and perience which he relies on to comprehend such sys- technology are very different from those which are tems. It is possible to create an informal, intimate dia- purely technological or purely economic.4 The many log which serves to concretizeGedankenexperimente. variables, the high degree of interdependence between The key is the use use of multiple sensory modalities in them, and the nonlinearity of the relationships leads to interacting with the computer (manual-visual, audio- fundamentally dissimilar behavior. Coinplex systems visual). A first step is the workshop series developed by are stable in the face of most changes in input, yet Holling and Goldberg for participative urban and exhibit catastrophic changes with a few gradual altera- regional planning at the University of British Colum- tions in input. They have long lag times in accommo- bia. 202 2. Scores and scenarios developed by artists together 16 with systeths scientists and futurists. The joinirg of the arts and sciences may prove a vital step in communicat- ing complex future alternatives. The "scoring" concept Of Lawrence Halprins isa example of a catalytic agent ... to effect the melding of artists and nonartists in an I _ ._ endeavor of this kind Audio- visual taping in turn may be the forerunner of three-dimensional multiple motor O e sensory environmental simulations. . 3. Vivified models of complex systems. The value of Models which are true prototypes of new systems is rec- -Ogiiiied in tethhology=based industry: The most recent 4' .. change in procedure for Militaryaircraft procurement -- 3 -in the United States reintroduces the prototype as a key- - 4-0- 7.5 ---- step before commitment to production.-It is surprising 1- ... . - ,., - That insistence on "living"models has been lacking in so ...... 010.*__ - many large -scale social system proposals. An individ- - 4*- - -- " -ual who is.nhysic-ally able to live in several new urban *... -o , . * L - ' c environments is far More likely to:make a meaningful' Co- *- -... -* 4*- -choice than one who must do so on the basis of narra- ib next week next few yews- lifetiree ekildreo's lifetime tives, Pictures, or architect's models. TIME D. L Meadows et el, Th.Iidts To Brow*(New York: Universe Books, 17121. Communication Dilemma No.-2:,Dis-- counting the Future Figure 2. Human perspectives. A bitter lesson which every forecasia- and pTiiiner learns is that the vast majority of his clientele has a very short planning horizon as well as a short memory. The massive impact of this personal discounting Most people are really only concerned with their process on the Forrester-Meadows World Dynamics immediate neighborhood in space and time (see Figure model is readily dmonstrated. Consider an individual 2). Occurrences which appear to be far removed from who was unconcerned about global pollution-in-1950 the present positiOn are'heavily discounted. Moreover, and is still untroubled by current world population the degree of discounting:may well vary with the indi- density and food availability. Normalizing these varia-, vidual's cultural and social status. A person at the bles to 1950 and 1970, respectively, the Meadows bottom of Maslow's human values pyramid will dis- "standard" run` generated-the-pollution; population, count environmental pollution much more heavily and population/food noduction curves denoted in than someone near the top. The poor, for whom survi- Figure 3 by 44079 Crises peak in 60 years for pollution, val is a daily challenge, are hardly going to lose much in 80 years for population, and in 90 years for food pro- sleep over a pollutionor population crisis 20 years in duction.Application of a discount rate equal to, or the-future. A similar difference applies to space: a greater than, 5 percent reduces the population and slum - dweller worries about rats he can see in his room, pollution crises to minor significance, i.e., no dramatic while the jet set worries about depletion of wild game in worsening of the current situation isperceived. by distant Africa. Among nations, Americans seem to today's observer. Ftiture food shortages may exert a have a particular penchant for discounting. They are a somewhat stronger personal fear and possibly result in young Nation (and the young discount more than the a lower discount rate for foods production than for mature). They are raised on installment buying and population or pollution data. But here find that no "fly now, pay later" exhortations. The writer is only as large-scale deterioration of the situation occurs for50 good as his iatest book, and the politician is attuned to years even without discounting; 'in fact, there is some the voter's persistent query, "But what have you done improvement over the next 20-years. It is not surpris- for me lately?" ing, therefore,.that cries of crises fall on deaf ears. 203 213 POPULATION 11971 Meadows standard nm POLLUTION 11960 is 11 Discount rate Dismal 15 rate NOW 50 UM 131 Yews in Future 10 POPULATION/FOOD PRODUCTION (14/0 ,....111111110 IMMO 11111111, IRWIN UMW 10% 0 NOW 5A 1N 1950 SOO X50 2N0 Yaws in Future NOW 50 BE 130 Years in Future Figure 3. The discounting effect in crisis perception. *14 Apparently discounting acts in both directions Unfortunately, this space -time- discounting phe- future and past.Acrisis aboulto happen or just expe- nomenon is usually poorly understood by the futures rienced is discounted little, while events a generation in researcher and is a major reason for the ineffectiveness the future or in.the past are discounted severely. The of long-range planning activities generally. The fore- historical pattern of. national wars suggests that a war caster points to remotely located threats and opportu- is discounted completely in the span of about one gen- nities only to find a frustrating and maddening unres- eration. The tendency to discount, the past is observed, ponsiveness. Rarely does he try to come to grips with even among extrapolation-orierited forecasters. While ,,the basic communication difficulty. Yet we do have they do look at the past it is almost invariably the some clues. Themost effective triggerto- force recent past. I would guess that of the 90 percent of fore- installation of traffic lights at a dangerous intersection casts which are trend extrapolations,_90 percent use is the occurrencethere of a series of fatal accidents in a data extending liackno more than one generation. The short time span. Catastrophic fires spur the enactment reason usually given is that either ,data, e.g., GNP, is of new fire safety rules, and passenger aircraft colli- not available or is not relevant. sions lead- to improvement in air -traffic control. The actuality*of the Soviet-Sputnik galvanized a dramatic shift from the low-key Vanguard space effort to the Forecasters lack a sense of history. One of the 'most interesting techniquesforecasting by analogyis gigantic Apollo, program. The Arab oil embargo has rarely used. Ant'outstanding study was done by Maz- stimulated both energy conservation measures and fish- on the *logy between- the impact-of railroad research on new kinds of energy sources andmeans of technology and "Space technology, with emphasis on delivery. spinoffs.") The current energy crisis has had its prede- The key to effective communication is a perceived cessors: animal- food shortage in Paleolithic times, crisis or opportunity of sufficiently serious proportions manpower shortage in the fourth century A.D. in in thenear- space-time neighborhood of a sufficiently Rome, and most specifically the wood shortage in the potent client or constituency. This can be brought sixth century in Europe (which led to the introduction about in two ways, schematically shown in Figure 4: (1) of coal). There may, in fact, be a genetic basis for man's moving the distant crisis or opportunity well within the concentration on-the present. An ability to maintain client's current field of perception or planning horizon such focus probably enhanced his chances of survival or (2) extending the client's field of perceptibn or,plan- in frequently hostile surroundings. ning horizon. a. Moving crisis or opportunity dew b. Extending perception out World Distant Crisis Distort Distant Spatialtemporal Spatial-temporal Crisis Crisis V Distant Temporal \Crisis Ell Now Nth TIME figure 4. Space-time perception. 20215 I. The most obvious means to compress the time distortion.in. altered states of consciousness is perti- dimension is to create a minicrisis in the near term. If a nent. We all recognize that 5 minutes can at times seem potential future catastrophe canbe averted by such a like an hour; conversely, individuals facing death but strategy we are justified-in-considering it. 1.-rbor uses unexpectedly surviving (e.g., airborne parachutists the concept in precipitating strikes; the military use it with unopened parachutes landingsafely in a snow in creating "threats" (e.g., the nonexistent "missile bank) consistentlyreportthattheir entirelives gap" in 1960). The current Arab oil embargo had pre- unreeled before them in a very brief time interval. Mas- cisely the characteristics of a minicrisis for the United ters and Houston invoke altered states of conscious- States. The awareness and actions which resulted may ness to decondition the ordinary way of thinking about avoid a much more serious crisis in the 1980's. time. In this way an enormous subjective experience can occur in a very brief period of clock measured time. 'ere arelessobvious but equally intriguing They have successfully-used this accelerated_mental. approaches. We note that technology, in the shape of process of time distortion with =novelists who are communications, has been far more successful in com- blocked in their work. The use of "mind games" is only pressing space than time. Television has dramatically one of the techniques of a vast frontier." It is obvious foreshortened the space =dimension and brought that our vast ignorance in this area can no Ion, be distant-crises and triumphsinto-the-living room with accepted. forceful impact. The Kennedy assassination events and the Apollo manned lunar landing are examples of its This discussion has concentrated on the future. It capability. Communication has been much less effec- has already- been noted that discounting of the past tive in similarly foreshortening the time dimension. may also reduce the, effectiveness of the-forecaster. Orson. Wales's radio version of H. G. Wells's War of Extending the forecaster's historical consciousness the Worlds is a rare example, again reflecting the would appear to pose a more readily solvable problem. importance of the artist. Interaction between historians and futurists can be We should not only study improved means of using facilitated. Again the question resolves into one of communication to compress time (e.g., "All in the interdisciplinary communications. One of the means Family" set in 1990?) but ways to substitute spate for should be joint "games" to attempt to do a forecast time and then compress the space dimension (see arrow starting at a specific point in history and assuming only S in Figure 4). If we can recognize a future crisis for our knowledge of information of events prior to that time society in a.current or recent crisis of another society, point. Comparison with actual history subsequent to we may be able to focus on that society and use com- the forecast starting date can be most instructive. Even munications to bring its perception vividly into our liv- detailed analysis of the relatively few available histori- ing rooms. Possible examples are the overpopulated cal forecasts (e.g., the anonymous 1763 work The cities of India and the undernourished poor of Africa Reign of George VI. 1900-1925 and H. G. Wells's ' and South America. Similarly, we may find future life Anticipations) is a worthwhile exercise too seldom styles already casting their shadows in other cultures undertaken by futurists. ..4b _____today As 300 hours in the life of "An American Fam- ily" were filmed in 1912 and subsequently presented in I2 -hour long episodes on television, the family life.in Some New Suggestions other potentially relevant cultures can be brought home to today's public. The Working Groups at the 1973 Special World Conference for Futures Research brought forth a There are, of course, also dangers inherent in a number of proposals bearing on improved communi- strategy of type I: repeated creation of minicrises can cations involving futurists. These serve to indicate cur- dull their effectiveness (the "cry wolf' syndrome), and rent thinking. The last two of the four following pro- misuse by vested interests may cause harm. posals generated at Rome address themselves to the basic dilemma of communicating holistic insights 2. The other alternative, extension of the individu- about complex systems: al's field of perception or planning horizon, poses even more intriguing questions. Are the current limits I. Proposal for Worldwide Futures Communica- physiologically determined or illusory? There is grow- tion Network. Presently remotely located groups are ing interest in the development of new concepts to con- unable to confer with each other on vital common dition the individual to a longer time horizon. The issues, e.g., world population growth forecasts. A task work of Jean Houston and Robert Masters on time force should undertake the development of a multi- 211 media network;which includes progressivelycassettes, implementation. The financial cost is realistic anddoes videotapes, and ultimatelya two-way real time interac- not fall on only one hosting organization. tive, computer augmented conferencingnetwork avail- able to all groups in the worldinterested in the study of 3. Proposals for Futures Museums. The realization, problems of the future on a continuous, i.e., when of quality of life models presentsa problem in social wanted, basis. The appropriatesponsoris the World mini-technology. Using futures research methodology, Federation for Future Studies with United Nations the establishment of small-scale quality of life"muse- and/or foundation support. Full-timeprofessionals ums" is proposed. The word museum here is used in will be required. The project should-begin the as soon as original sense(museionmeans home of thearts and pbssible so that international;operation could be techniques). effected within 4 years. Theconcept could be demon- strated at a forthcoming World Federationfor Future This activity, will facilitate the dialogue betweenfu- Studies Meeting (througksimultaneousmeetings held turists and others at a level of holism which isunat- at a number of locations). tainable with more conventional,means;otcommuni- cation. An individual' can walk through- and "feel" The Rome conference itself underscored the impor- alternative future cities in thesame way he expaiences tance of such a concept: the absence of representatives colonial" Williamsburg, Virginia City,or Disney's from distant underdeveloped countriesas well as the Futureland. hiatus in communications betweensuccessive meet- ings. The technology is available todayand analogous 4. Magic Mountain Centers. Magic MountainCen- networks are already operating internationally(e.g., ters are proposed where're- creation" of the individual worldwide weather reportingsystem available to all can take place in a holistic way. Such centers willpro- airports and used in all countries since the1960's or the vide space, solitude, skilled teachers,and enablers. ARPA net in the United States). Theproposed system They will afford the opportunityto communicate with can; in fact, use existing networks in manyareas at a oneself, one's family, and others of interest. Thelead- cost of SIO per hour or less. ers of Magic Mountain must be teachers andgurus who do not control theprocesses required but facili- tate and bear witness by their own behavior. Those 2. Participative Conference. Futuresresearchers who come to Magic Mountain are in danger of becoming a self-appointed elite which can come for short or long periods. Resources of art, religion, and mirrors the existing elitistsystem in the society for science will be available to help peoplemove between the which they presume to advocate chang.l. Avery high known the the unknown innew and open ways. In this priority should be given to develop techniquesand methods to enable the entire community manner the future-makingcapacities will be released in to participate the individual. The sponsor suggested is in futures studies. A conference is proposed the Commit- which pro- tee of Correspondence on Religion of the Future which vides the opportunity for simultaneous activitiesto sat- is already being set up through isfy many needs and The Rome Special many abilities. It should be World Conference. Initially, organized so that any person centers in Europe, Asia, can design his own con - Africa, and North and South America ferencing agenda and meaningfully participate are advocated. in one The concept is considered vital because futurists or ten days. He could parttcipate simply by collecting and others need to learn to work innew ways in order to be information, by dialoging with othersconcerning able to create futures, not merely theorize ideas, or by developing and initiating action about them. programs. Ideas and starting points for this kind ofcenter already The World Federation is an appropriatesponsor. Such exist in France, England, Japan, North America,and a conference could be held as soon as practically feasi- other locations. ble and in almost any location in the world.The dia- gram (Figure 5) suggests one possible physicalat range- ment. Conclusion This concept enables highly informedas well as uninformed individuals to participate in both informal The two diletr ,tas described in the sectionson and highly structured situations. It provides com- for maxi- municating complexityanddealing with discounting mum opportunity of choice and freedom as wellas must be given top priority in the communications structure and can be adapted to global, regional,or aspect of futures research. The other communications local situations. It is practical because it provides for difficulties pale by comparison. If thesecritical coin maximum opportunities to participate in planning and munications difficulties cannot beovercome, much of fti HIGHLY FORMAL OR INFORMAL MEETINGS Figure 5. Suggested facilitative meeting swim 'sent (Group 2). the subitantive achievement in futures research will be in the role of the court jester: they will be tolerated, and wasted. The planners and futurists will find themselves only so long as they amuse. FOOTNOTES !.:Polak, The inktge ofthe Future (San Francisco: Jossey Bass, Holling and Goldberg, op. cit.; C. S. Holling and M. A: Gold= 191,2); berg, "Ecology and Plarining,"-Journal of the American Institute of- Planners (Jtily 1971), p. 221, R. Straus, "Depaitinenti and Disciplines: Stasis and Change," Science, Vol:182 (NoVernber 30;1973), pp:897-898. 6'A Johnson, "Information Tools that ,Decisionmakers C.in Really :NI( With," Innovation,pio710 (1970);A. Jcihnson;"Organi= case studies of teChncilcigy asitismentby The MITRE Cor= ration,ierception:anil Controlin Living Systems, "'Industrial Manz paraded: [A:Tichn °logy Assessment Methodology, Project-Sum- agement Review (Winter 1969). inariAtricii Six volOMes (Washington, 1971)] and, by J. W. Dickey, D. -M. Glancy, and E.M:Jennelle [TechnologyAssessment 7 a S. Scheele,-unpublished material, Social Engineering Tech= '(Lexington; Mass.: Lexington BOokii.1973)]: nology, inc., Los Angeles; Calif. 4-Note .Holling's description .of ecosYstetnic."There.cciuld hardly. L. Halprin, The Cycles: Creative Processes in thekurnan be another area with as much ignorance, as much confusion, and is Environment (New Ycirk: George Braziller, Inc.,-1969): much unknown:We haviIiid a taxonomy of eiosYsteni structure for 9 The tlY! curves are based on Figure 35, p.-124; of MeadoWs; Op. yeatS and only no** glimeri of an explanation of the dynamics cit. -emerging:Are also. have 40 years modellingecOlogi, cal and economic processes in-a simplistically irreleVint way and at to B. Mazlish, The-Railroad and the SpaCe grarit: An Explpia- the best we have only tound"what not to do.,But if Our knoWledge of tion in Historical Analogy (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT-Press, 1965). ecological and economiCiRer"--ns irTbad state, our kii5Cvliage61 R. Masters and J. Houston, "The Varieties of PostpSychedefic 'Man 4-66tiiiderahly worse .. Wherever-we look tat:isare gaps - Experience," Intellectual Digest (March 1973), 0.18; It: Masters and -gaps between methods, disciplines, institutions, and constituencies." J. Houston, Mind Games (New York: Viking Press, 1972), p. 73. (C: Honing andM.-A:Goldberg,"ResouiceScience Workshops," Resource SciericO Centre, University of British Columbia, Sep- teniber.19.71). ot 219 11. 209 Chapter. "15 Monittning the -Future, :Wayne I. Boucher and Katherine H. 'Willson Ekecutives, analysts, and citizens alike have a vital Consideration the wink _of -thoSe "hundreds,- perhaliS *0-est in monitoring the environinent, that con- thousands, of-public and ,private organiiatioils_that fidence of natural -and man-made conditions relevant merely -track developments ,over time7vvithotit prOjec=" =to- "current' choideS of *the evalitation Of: current ling-theinintolhe future. policies:!Analytically; this confidence can be_Viewed as Iiiiiiiation-of bifebrmotepasts;-or the rus h ngin of one Or, More futures. -In practical affairs, especially Trend Analysis Program whefe decisions are being made under presstirejt is typically both. Surprisingly, while millions of d011ars The Trend Analysis Pr?3gram -(TAP), which- is and'man -hours are spent annually in capturing the past administered by the Institute for Life Insurance(ILI), in the expectation that it may prove relevant, and while is designed to identify, on the basis of a continual every individual and organization has some sort of search of published literature, the social trends which systeM, forrhal or not, for making portions of this may be significant to the insurance industry. TAP is information relevant, very little is known about how an effort by the insurance business- to- "study the these systemS actually workwhat they include, how environment in which our business operates and to, they include it, whom they serve, with whateffect, and transmit what we learn to our member companies so so on. Thisisparticularlysoinbusiness and that they can be attuned to what is expected of them government:2 We assert, however, that every successful and be, therefore, more effective in serving the system involves consideration of the future; indeed, the public."5 This program is unique in several respects, argument is increasingly being made that institutional perhaps the most interesting of them being that it is the intelligenceor monitoring capabilities should be only voluntary yet formalized system for monitoring formally structured to include the approaches and the future which has been established within and by a results of futures research.3 major U.S. business sector. Four subject areas are As if in response to this need, the growth of the monitored: (I) science and technology; (2) ts,e social futures movement has been followed closely over the sciences; (3) values, attitudes, and opinions; (4) and last decade or so by an increasing number of attempts politicalsystems.Eachof approximately 120 by persons within the movement to develop informa- volunteers within ILI member firms is assigned to read ,tion systems and sources that can help (from the a specific periodical that regularly publishes on one or outside) to alert decisionmakers to important prospec- more of these subjects. This literatureconsists tive trends and events. These efforts have sometimes primarilyofpopularpublications,but,afew involved the establishment of wholly new organiza- specialized journals are included as well. When articles tions, but more often they have simply been appended are found that contain suggestions of trends that could as new activities within existing institutions. In the be important, abstracts are prepared by the volunteers following paragraphs, we consider briefly several of and forwarded to an ILI coordinating committee the more signifiCant "trend watching" systems now in consisting of 15 senior executives from ILI member existence or being developed, and then look more companies,supported,asrequired,byoutside closely at four services involving novel and quite specialistsinfuturesresearch. The role of the interesting prod acts.4 Throughout, our focus falls committee is to scan periodically the abstracts that entirely on efforts that have, or promise to have, a have been submitted by the readers and to decide futures orientation; thatisto say, we omit from which are significant enough to be reported upon in the 210 220 next Trend .Report. The abstracts selected are then are provided in each quarterly Rend Report. A summarized andlmblisked- for use by ILI members. quarterly subscription is $500. Each 'rePorf treats; one topic_ in detail. The reports also inClude-i section, "Straws in the Wind," which U.S. Industrial Outlook briefly presents interesting and relevant -issues dis- cussed the,recetit literature: This -section contains Many government agencies-collect data on-various- .excerPts -of items -taken directly from the. Abstract time series, but only a_few attempt extrapolation. Of .Analysis. Committee, .meetings.Incidentally, while these, even fewer attempt to look more than -two or Trend,R;eporis are almost totally on material in three-quarters or years.ahead. ObyiottS exceptions are :published' sources, like most of the other services the Bureau of the-Census and the Bureau of Labor described in -this chapter, tLey also contain pertinent Statistics. Still another exception, although .perhaPs dataffom other- sources. Inaddition to TAP, ILI has lesswidely -knowni -isthe Bureau- of Domestic conducted- since_1968a program called MAP Commerce of the -U.S. 'Department -of ComMerce; (Monitoring Attitudes -of- the Public). -MAP is a which publishes 'annually a docuMent entitled :U.S. monitorintsysteni-swhich attemptS to-survey:public' Industrial Outlook. Issues pithliihed` up to 1975' .attitudes. and -opinions toward life .ipsurance,.t he.life. contained-projections to the year,1980;beginning,with, insuranee, butiness, and,related 'issues. -MAP surveys the 1976 issue,-projections were made, to1985..-In:all are.conducted.afintlallyAttitudes on 50 topics were eases, severalbuildred indicators hi:particular indastry---,- -measured in 1974. These included acceptance of =life sectors (e.g., chemicals, paper, steel); all 'arranged:bY insurance Coverage for women; the family, government SIC code, are forecasted. Though the methods;Used to regulations, -consumerism, and life insurance as a derivetheseforecastsarenotexplained,.a necessity.'New questions are investigated each year but mathematical model of some sort is no doubt involved. -emphasis is kept on systematic monitoring of attitudes What distinguishes the -Bureau's projectiOns- from toward _chatige by repeating questions from survey to similar efforts is that an attempt is made here and-there survey; holding the methodology constant. This to assess the impact of potential social, technological, practice has generated a great deal of information demographic, and even political deVelopthents on the about important trends in public attitudes toward future course of the indicators. Again, however, the current social issues. approach used toidentify and trace out these interrelationships is not explained. Copies may be obtained from the Superintendent of GovernMent Trend Report Documents for $5.45. The Urban Research Corporation of Chicago publishestheTrend Report, an early warning MAPTEK monitoring system comparable to the Trend Analysis Quantum Science Corporation, a New York based Program of the Institute for Life Insurance. While the multinational information services company, main- TAP program monitors and abstracts magazine tains the MAPTEK Data Bases. At present there are periodical articles, the Urban Research Corporation eight data bases in the MAPTEK system, of which five scans and evaluates the coverage of issues in newspaper provide forecasts. These five are: articles.More than 200 newspapers from159 metropolitan areas in the United States are monitored. 1. MAPTEK Computer Equipment Market Forecast, The procedure for compiling a Trend Report involves which provides a five-year market projection of categorizing articles into ten major subjects and 124 more than 95 categories of computer equipment in- subtcpics. The ten' categories are education, employ- terms of average selling price, quantity sold, and ment, environment, government and politics, health, total dollar volume. This data base also forecasts the housingand urbandevelopment,human and usage of these equipments in 40 end-user products... economic relations, law and order, transportation, and 2. MAPTEK Electronic Component Market Forecast, welfare and poverty. The technique of content analysis which provides a five-year market projection in is applied to the articles, measuring the increase or terms of average price, quantity, and total dollar decrease of coverage of each topic. The actual number volume of each component category. Also given is of lines of text given to each topic is a basis of the usage of over 300 categories of electronic measurement. These data, along with commentary components in each of more than 450 equipment specifically geared to business interests on each topic, categories. 211 221 3.- MAPTEK COMputer Services Market Forecast, political change for various segments of the :business which. provides afive -year a projectionof user community. Reports cover developments worldwide, experiditUres anchven dor revenues for the computer but selected topics are,regionally oriented (e.g., North. services- industry. It covers 13 end-user industry America, Europe, Japan). They alert executives to new ,sectorsand'79' individual-computerservices business opportuilities, trends, or threats, providing, ,eategtifieS. fion.cin new processes, products, markets, and MAPTEK European 'Computer/ Cornmunications advanced planning techniques. ,Data:Hase presents five-year forecasts for computer -e'quiprnent (byproduct type) and DP services for -17 More than 540 reports have been published since the European_Cbiitries classified by 9 market groups program began. Representative topics include Trends and 13, research .(industry) sectors. 't in Manufactured-Housing, Econometric FOrecaSting 5. MAPTEK Offide Technology Forecast, which in Business' Planning, 'Environmental' 'Policy and provides- Olve-year market projection in terms of Impact Statements, Trends in-the Western EUropean average selling price, quantity, and total. dollar Chemical Industry, Weather, Forecasting, Nuclear Power Prospects, and BusineSs Opportunities-in the ' volume-ofleaChf office-equipment -category,--struc- :USSR. "Iiired_lijr_iiiliistry-Sector ando face Size. .these,data bases are made available ona fee -basis thrbughthe MAPTEK Associate Program. The MAR, service's aim-is to provide primary research informa- tiOn for strategic and tactical market, product, and In1966 work began atthe GeneralElectric buSiness planning to executives of the electronics Company to develop a sophisticated computer-based industries. data bank and forecasting system for the use of GE'S corpoiite planners. The success of this effort;which was performed at TEMPO, GE's center for advanced Stanford Research Institute studies, led the corporation to make the system available to outside users on a subscription-basis. In, One of the oldest and most important services this mode, the service is known as the Management- available from the independent research community is Analysis-Projection (MAP) System. The data bank of the Business Intelligence Program (formerly known as trend information open to MAP subscribers is on of the Long-Range _Planning Service) provided by the the largest in the United States;it includes the - Stanford Research Institute. This service, which was following files: established in 1958, is available by subscription fcr $6500 per year for an initial two-year primary contract. The GE Economic Forecast data bank, which Participation provides (I) new reports as they are contains qlarterly and annual time series for 200 macroeconomic variables and selected indicators of issued (approximately 30 reports are published each the U.S. economy. Long-range annual forecasts year); (2) copies of previously published reports still in cover the next tenyears, while quarterly benchmark print (approximately 200 reports); (3) an inquiry forecasts cover the next eight quarters. service, which permits clients to ask for additional The NBER data bank of more than 2000 time series, information about subjects addressed incurrent which is maintained by the National Bureau of reports; (4) consultation with authors and professional Economic Research. It covers all National-Income staff (priviliges similar in scope topose of the inquiry Account series published in the Survey of Current service); (5) microfilm backup to research reports; (6) a Business,allcyclical and economic indicators Report Subject Index, covering all reports in print, including subject headings cross referenced to all published in the Commerce Department's BCD and CEA Economic Indicators, plus many more series pertinent reports, plus alphabetical and numerical on prices, employment, banking, and other topics. listings of the reports; (7) executive summaries of each Federal Trade Commission and Security and new report; and (8) occasional seminars or conferences Exchange Commission data banks, which contain devoted' to thenies of interest to many clients. quarterlyfinancialstatements representing the The Business Intelligence Program monitors and aggregate of all enterprises classified as manufac- projects change as itrelates to business strategy, turers who are required to file U.S. Corporation operations, and management, drawing out im- Income Tax Form 1120. plications of economic, social, technological, and The NPA regional economic and demographic data 212 n s-1 4 4 44 baillc,'_,which is maintained by the National Planning Significaride); (3) two-way communication with GE Association- and contains' historical data plus five - (the opportunity to phone GE economists for further and '-terilear-projections, for eight :regions, all 50 informatitin about the projections in the ,preceding. states, the_DiStriCt of Columbia, and 230 Standard Quarterly Review):and (4) special in-depth studies (the MetrOpolitan.Statistical Areas. opportunity to commission GEpersonnel to perform regional Industrial,Production Index-data bank, proprietary research on specific markets and in- whichis ,maintained by 'U.S.Engineers and dustries). In its earlier promotional literature, GE ,,Consultants,Inc. and proVidestWo types of monthly emphasized that the trend forecasts provided in .data: an index of activity by state and manufacturing MAPCAST were,derived through wholly_ new techni- ndiiStry, and a measure of the contribution of each queS, as well as "unique combinations of more induStry, in each state to the_Federal Reserve Index advanced [versions Of conventional] methods." Provi- of-Manufacturing. sion could be made for including "the likely impacts of -The. Southeastern Regional Data Base, which is changes ingovernmental 'icies, public attitudes, and ,maintaine&bytheSoutheastern,.Economic, Project theinteraction among_ industries";in wayS not and contains detailed' regional information on the specified,; "considered expert judgni-ent" on these -Southeastern, eCO Only. Matters could also somehow be factored into these -=The Standard Industrial Classification data bank, extrapolations, Which comprises series on ten measures of business h-as-employment-and-shipments), for over-500 industries._ Institute for Trend Research --,.Spetialiied _industry files, -including those of the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) is a private the,NationahElectrical Manufacturers Association. research corporation organized to increase scientific knowledge of economic trends-and patterns. The-35 MAP users have full access to these data. Moreover, Pressure Indicators is a monthly publication of ITR they may also introduce ,parameters of their own, and is available by subscriptiomfor1150. For each of reflecting cOnditions unique to their own organizations 35 individual series (including housing -starts, stock or special assumptions about future prospects. (No one prices, textile shipments, GNP, short -term interest, else has access'to these original data while they are in and auto sales) trend forecasts are prepared monthly. 'the system.) When the user has defined a problem, These charts have been published since 1970, and ITR selected the time'series of interest to him, and entered claims to have determined that the 35 "pressure" his own data, he then can exploit the forecasting indicators turn upward in approximately the same capabilities of the MAP System, which has a variety of order, cycle after cycle. In light of this Conclusion, these - built -in extrapolation procedures.MAP is highly indicators are offered as an up-to-date description of flexible and easy to use; for these reasons, plus the the current business situation and as a means of richness of its data base, it may be the most powerful identifying cyclical changes that may be developing. tool of its type in the United States today. In addition to MAP, GE has offered MA PCAST, an information service based on GE's own projections National Planning Association about future economic and business developments in the United States. While this service is no longer TheNational PlanningAssociation(NPA) available to new subscribers, plans to make it available publish' s three reports that are of interest here: (1) the again were being considered in 1975. MAPCAST is Regional Economic Projections Series (REPS), (2) the thus being used primarily by GE personnel. The National Economic Projections Series (NEPS), and (3) previous (and possibly revived) MAPCAST service Looking Ahead & Projection Highlights. The price for has four parts: (1) the MAPCAST Quarterly. Review of REPS and N EPS is $350 per year; a joint subscription Economic Prospects (a journal that discusses the to bothis$600.Looking Ahead & Projection .possible course of existing and emerging trends and Highlights is free with membership in NPA. REPS is gives baseline and contingent extrapolations of major an annual that pros ides 5-, 10-, and 15-year forecasts economic indicators);(2)the MAPCAST Mid- of economic and demographic information for eight Quarter Review (a periodic newsletter that notes any general regions, all 50 states, and more than 240 deviations from the baseline projectionsinthe metropolitan areas in the United States. Among the preceding, Quarterly'Review and explorestheir variables projected are population and labor force size 213 2 2 ti by age and .sex,-personal income,;personal consump- by Chase Econometric- Associates. Some modification tion expenditures for 83 consumer product items, and of CEA's assumptions is done as deemed necessary in housing stock by occupancy status and structural the judgment of the analysts. Table 1, drawn from an characteristics. REPS undertakes to forecast the entire NPA flyer, compares some of the organization's earlier national system of small areas simultaneously. long-range projections with actual outcomes._ The projection system works through a series of iterations and successive approximations,in Looking Ahead & Projection Highlights is intended which ai small- area's -projected share of the as a supplement to REPS and NEPS. Each issue of this national total of employment in certain so-called newsletter focuseS on a partictilar subject addressed in "basic" industries is a prime determinant of REPS NEPS (e.g:, "Income and Consumption in employment inother secondaryand tertiary ,Mew ,Jolitan Areas: Projections to1985"), sum- sectors in that area and therefore net migration, marizing key findings from these reports with a minimum of statistical and economic jargon. while conversely, the population of that area and its -surrounding ,"market" areas helps determine demand for goods and services in the public sector Mct3raW-Hill Publications and in-the secondary and tertiary industries.6 The Economics Department within_McGraw7Hill - REPS- is derived from results presented in the publishes numerous report series that. present- (arid .".7 national survey, NEPS, which is also an annual. NEPS provide. - interpretations of) business and economic looks 5, 10, and 15 years ahead at such subjects as GNP trends, along with analySes and industry studies. The by major components, industry sales, exports and publications of the Econ6mics Department include: imports by industry, voup, output and employment, investment,governmentspending and revenues, Annual Survey of U.S. Business' Plans. Or New personal income by type of source, personal expen- Plants'and Equipment: Planned Capital investment I ditures by product categories, and so on. The long- data for 26 major industries for four years ahead. range projections produced at:NPA are generated by a Breakdowns of investment into buildings, motor series oftnodels,some maintained by NPA and others vehicles,andmachinery and equipmentinto, Table 1 Comparisons Between Previous NPA Economic Projections and Actual Developments, 1950, 1960 and 1965' (dollars in billions) 19502 19603 19654 Projected Projected Projected Indicator Projected minus actual Projected minus actual Projected minus actual 5 years as a percent 8 years as a percent 10 years as a percent Actual earlierof projectedActual earlierof projectedActual earlierof projected GNP $163.5 $170.0 3.8% $419.5 $425.0 1.3% 624.6 $632.9 1.3% Pei -Iona' consumption expenditures 109.0 116.3. 6.3 286.4 291.1 1.6 407.7 408.8 0*.'3 Gross domestic investment 26.6 25.3 =55- 57.0 55.9 -2.0 97.9 92.2 -6.2 Source: NPA ' The comparisons between projected and actual developments have been adjusted for periodic revisions in the national income and product data which have occurred in the postwar years. The comparisons shown above are based on the definitions prevailing in-the year in which the projection was made. 2 National Budgets for Full Employment (Washington, D.C.. National Planning Association, 1945). Both the actual and projected GNP data are expressed in terms of 1945 constant prices. 3 Gerhard Coim, The American Economy in 1960 (Washington, D.C.. Nation it Planning Association, 1952).The actual and projected GNP data are expressed in terms of 1951 constant prices. ' LongRange Protections for Economic Growth. The American EconoMy in 1970 (Washington, D.C.. National Planning Association, Planning Pamphlet No. 107. 1959). The GNP data are expressed in terms of constant 1958 prices. 214 224 modernization versus expansion, and by six major WorldBusinessOutlook:Annualeconomic regions are also included. Data on capacity trends, forecasts for most of the major industrial nations of operating - .rates, sales, and- price and employment the world. Includes detailed statistics on gross expectations are also available in the report. $8.50. national product and industry trends. $17.50. --DetailedIndustry Breakdowns: Data forap- World Business Review and Outlook at Mid Year: proximately 50 3- and 4-digit SIC industries An update of annual economic forecasts for the next (unpublished figures) are available for trends in year for most of the major industrial nations of the capital spending plans and sales forecasts for four world. Includes statistics on gross national product years-ahead..$35. and overall industry trends. $17.50. Capital Spending Forecast for Four Years: Forecast A Decade of Growth in Western Europe to 1984: of Capital expenditures for 23 major industries and Economic projections for 14 Nations in Western groups for four years ahead, based on mathematical Europe for 1979 and 1984. Includes detailed relationships between McGraw-HilI survey results statistics on gross national product and populaticin. and actual data. Issued in June of each year. $35. $10. Preliminary Survey of U.S.lusiness' Plans for New Migration of Industry: -Projection:, of employment Plants and Equipment: Planned capital investment for 1977 and 1982 for 22 major manufacturing data:for 26'major industries- for -.two`years-ahead. industries-in six major regionS of the Unked,Statei. Sales and price expectations are included37.50. $12.50. =Detailed MORO Breakdowns: Trelid data for Annual Survey of Pollution Control Expenditures: approximately 50 3- and 4-digit industries (un- Pollution control expenditures of 26 major in- p,ublished figures) are available for trends in capital dustries for the current year and third year ahead. spending plans for two years ahead. $35. Breakdowns of air versus water pollution control Capital Spending Forecast for Two Years: Forecasts expenditures, as well as,total costs of bringing each -of capital expenditures for 23 major ind ustriesand industry's existing facilities upto current standards, groups for two years ahead, based on mathematical are also included. R &D_ expenditures for pollution relationships between McGraw-Hill survey results control are also covered. The results are based on and actual data. $17.50. data gathered in McGraw-Hill's annual survey of Annual Survey of Overseas Operations of U.S. business' plans. $7.50. Industrial Companies: Planned capital investment Annual Survey of Investment in Employee Safety data for-14 major industries in eight major areas of and Health: Employee safety and health expen- the world for two years ahead. Breakdowns of ditures of 26 major industries for the current year overseas investment into property,plant, and and third year ahead. Results are based on data equipment, as well as data on capacity trends and gatheredinMcGraw-Hill's annualsurvey of operating rates are also included. Sales and profit- business' plans. $6. expectationsare also covered. $8.50. Annual Survey of Corporate Profit Trends:.Profits, Summary of U.S. Industrial Companies' Spending profit margins, and financial data for 22 industrial Plans: U.S. industrial companies' total planned categories for the year ahead. Results are based on a capital expenditures both at home and abroad for survey of financial executives in industry. $7.50. two years ahead. $8.00. -Annual Survey of Research and Development American Economy, Prospects for Growth to 1988: Expenditures: R&D expenditures in 20 manufac- Economic and industrial projections to 1978, 1983, turing industries and in nonmanufacturing as,,a and 1988. Regional data on population and income whole for the current year and the third year ahead. are also included. Approximately 60 pages including Data on new products as a percentage of sales four growth tables covering nearly 175 3- and 4- digit SIC years ahead are alsoincluded. BreakdOwn of industries. ,$50.00. Federal versus private funding of R&D is covered. U.S. Business Outlook, Short-Term: Key factors in Results are based on data gathered in McGraw- theshort-term business outlook along with a Hill's-Annual Survey of Business' Plans. $7.50. detailed table of .forecasts of significant economic indicators. Issued four timesa yearJanuary, May, The Survey Research Center at August, and November. $6 per report. U.S. Business Outlook, Long-Term: An annual the University of Michigan updating of long-term trends covering 15 years ahead- or more, including two pages of general The Survey Research Center conducts a quarterly tables. $6. survey of consumer sentiment. The survey, which 215 225 *involves a representative sample of U.S. households, is about changes in the corporate environment ancLin -Intended to.quantify the attitudes of the U.S. consumer planning techniques. The primary means of dissemina- toward the outlook for business conditions, unemploy- tion is the bimonthly CAP Report. The reports are ment, inflation, interest rates, and buying conditions. *v.try brief (approximately six pages); among the titles This "Index of Consumer Sentiment" is often reported that have been publi.;hed'since the program's begin- in the more general publication;EcOnoniic Outlook ning in January 1975 are the following: U.S.A.,which is published quarterly by the Survey Research Center. According to the Center, the aim of CR 1-3, "Attitudes and Value ChangeImpact of Future Energy Crises"; "Strategic Planning:- this publication is to "aid deciSionmakers in achieVing a better understanding of the economic and social Eliciting Expert Information." CR 1-2, "Equal Employment Opportunity: The environment" by providing analyses that iincorporate Impact onCorporation"; "direct measurements of the expectations, attitudes, Long-Range "StrategicPlanning: Identifying Critical and 'plans of both consumers and business firmi with Issues:" the economic and financial variables traditionally used CR1 -I, "World Interdependence: A Revaluation"; in forecast models." Articles are devoted to such topics- "Strategic Planning: Penetrating the Cor- as food prices,_business,investmentS,attitudes toward porate Barriers." violence,and fertility trends. An annual subscription is $18. ;ADC IMPACT Program iThe Conference Board Arthur D. Little, Inc. is a profitmaking consulting organization. One of its services is the ADL IMPACT The Conference Board, despite its size, resources, Program. The total program includesbriefings, and support by industry, does surprisingly little Outlook Reportson topics of major interest (energy, forecasting. In 1974, however, it began a series of chemicals industry, metal resources,etc.), Comment studies to examine future trends and developments in Letters(which tend to be shorter analyses of narrow specific industry sectors (e.g., primary metals); these topics or fast-breaking developments), and personal studies are developed through use of the Maryland consultation. The annual fee for the program is $7500. Interindustry Model, an input-output model. One of Single reports maybe purchased for approximately the Board's other efforts is a bimonthly one-page $1000 andComment Letters areavailable for $250 per summary report entitledConsumer Attitudes and letter.Outlook ReportsandComment Lettersassess BuyingPlans. Based on surveys conducted for the theimpactof developmentseconomic,social, Board by National Family Opinion, Inc., these reports regulatory, technical, and commercialwhich have a examine expectations over the coming sir months direct bearing on the businesses of clients. regarding charges in business conditions, employment, and income, as well as plans to purchase cars, homes, and major appliances. Questions are also answered Yankelovich klismitorlind Corporate about vacation plans. This series is comparable to Priorities *-' those prepared by many other organizations, notably the Survey Research Center at the University of These services-.`aii::prOVided by a private firm, Michigan. Yankelovich; Skelly.'*;and*Iiite, which is engaged largely in polling: The fifSf,Yankelovich Monitor, is an ongoing research program which projects 35 social CAP Reports trends organized into five broad categories: I. Psychology of Affluence Trends. The Institute fortheFuture, an independent 2. Antifunctionalism Trends. nonprofit research corporation dedicated to com- 3. Reaction against Complexity Trends. prehensive studies of the long-range future, is the 4. Trends Relating to the. Weakening of the "Protes- originating agency for two services which regularly tant Ethic." monitor the future. One service is Project AWARE; 5. Trends Reflecting Permissiveness in Child Rearing. the other is the Corporate Associates Prograni(CAP). Project AWARE is discussed later in this chapter. The Monitorstudies are intended for use in planning future Corporate Associates Program pros ides information marketing moves and for understanding how con- 216 226 sumers currently buy and use products, and how they creation, a report on problem solving by a community respond to advertising, packaging, promotions, and in the Minneapolis area, a description of a program for other marketing. tactics. The initial entry fee for Canadian youth, etc. Subsequent issues have con- sponsori is 518;800. Thereafter a yearly fee of $13,800 sidered equally diverse subjects. Also included in each entitles sponsors to receive this proprietary service. issue is a list of organizations or projects that readers. might wish to take part in. The second,Yankelovich serviceisCorporate Priorities,a continuing study designed to highlight and Since the beginning of 1975,Future.v,Conditional to analyze possible resolutions to the conflicts betyieen nas been published by the- Northwest_Regional the competitive market system. and pressures on Foundation. An annual subscription is$20. It is now -business coming from the ecology movement, the described as "an information service to 'help you consumer protection movement, government, the organize programs to get people thinking about the youth movement, and similar sources.Corporate future, to give you ideas to think about and discuss; Prioritiesis proprietary to its sponsors, who pay a fee and to direct you to other resources. The publication is of $24,000 for the first year and $22,000 yearly specifically designed for individuals and groups and thereafter.Corporate Prioritiesis designed to assist, communities who are using the bicentennial for corporate- management in adapting realistc111 and thinking about and planning for their future." Despite with foresight to new public deMands and issues which its wishes to the contrary,Futures Conditionalis arechallengingtraditional business concepts -and essentially a magazine, -but it -occupies a-previously corporate organization. The study measures 30 unfilled niche between some of the general newsletters demands and 150 indicators of demands by means of described here andThe Fvturist,the Journal of the personal interviews among key leadership groups and World Futurei Society. a-large-scale sample of the general public. A total of .approxiinately 3200 individuals are surveyed. The respondentgroupsincludestockholders,college Footnotes to the Future students,union members,cityofficials,federal legislators, state agency executives, media executives, Futuremics, Inc., a Washington-based organization andofficialsinactivist organizations. In recent formed originally to advance Alvin 1 offier's ideas in advertising literature, Yankelovich, Skelly and White Future Shock,,publishesthe newsletter,Footnotes to Corporate Prioritiesgoes beyond point out that theFuture. An annual subscription is$15. Footnotes measuring "support" for a public policy issue which seeks to alert readers to new books -and articles, can affect business autonomy, and uncovers the degree forthcoming meetings, and the-availability of services -to which an issue has been crystallized, the role seen for provided by futurists (including some competitors of business, types of solutions under consideration, Futuremics). Only a few prospective trends and recognition and acceptability of "trade-offs" involved, developments are mentioned -in'a tytical issue; these and the vulnerabilities of specific products and appear under the headline "News Notes." In all of these industries. respects,Footnotesis comparable to several other services, such asAlert,published by the Research Futures Conditional Institute of America. In 1973, Robert Theobald began publication of Bulletin of the World Future Futures Conditional,a highly idiosyncratic monthly intended,in Theobald's words,to explore "the Society interlinked issues raised' by the transition from the industrial era to the communications era."Fu:ures The World Future Society (WFS) publishes both Conditionalhas described itself as a "participatory The Futuristand its bimonthlyBulletin.The WFS, a trencfleiter" rather than as a magazine or a conven- nonprofitorganization foundedin 1966,isar tional newsletter, primarily because readers are urged association for tne study of alternative futures. The to help shape the contents of each issue. There are no Bulletinis coming to serve as the professional journal limitations on subject matter; the first issue, for of the WFS, presenting current theories and results of example, contained an interview on the need to explore futures research, as well as book reviews and news the future, a survey of problems facing the un- items about the current activities of WFS chapters and derdeveloped countries, a parable on the myth of about people who are conducting research on the 217 227 future: In many respects, the-Bulletin is comparable to supply, consumer preferences, crop yields, fertilizers, Footnotes to the Future, yet its larger size allows for and labor. Results of studies conducted by government longer articles on futures research theories and agencies such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture, applications to be presented: and private institutions concerned with food- are reported. Meetings and conferences are also discussed rnd books of interest are reviewed. An annual Future-Abstracts subscription is $50. A service introduced by Foturemics, Inc. late in 1975 is Future:Abstracts. It is designed to provide a concise Technology Forecasts and TechnolOgy. systemforaccessinginformationonfuturist Surveys publications, programs, and ,people. Abstracts of relevant Publications (including books, magazines, The test newsletter covering emerging trends. in films, tapes,,garnes, and bibliOgraphies) are prepared. technology is Technology Forecasts and Technology and published on S by 8 in. file cards. Descriptions of .Surveys, published:12 times a year by the Professional organizations dealing-with the .turn and- Writers-Oro-tip Sinet1969arit available-by SabiUriii- bibliographicaLabitractS of priirtinent futurists are tion for-$62 per year The aim of this publication is to t. alsoincluded..PProkiiiiately 48 cards are distributed -report on workin progressin business -and-industryt, to subscribers cact' month. An annual subscription is theuniversities;goVernMent,ant independent $110: research organizations. Virtuallyall of the items presented reflect original research by the staff, usually Future. Report through interviewS..Hence, Technology,FOrecasts and- Technology Surveys is an excellent "early warning- system." A variety of fields is reported on in each issue. One of the most ambitious newsletters in the field is Topics such as energy, micrographics,_plastics, X-ray FutureReport (formerlyTomorrow'sWorld), scanners, futures research, and consumer patterns may published every third Monday by an organization be treated in a single issue. called Foundation for the Future. in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Each issue consists primarily of an unstructured list of predictions, projections, plans, This survey of trend watching organizations and patents,anticipated developments, summaries of services, while superficial and assuredly incomplete, research studies, and research results. Many of the does illt'strate the .principal types of activities, being items are drawnf rom published sources, which may or undertaken or contemplated today to help bring more may not be cited. A typical issue also includes one or of a futures orientation into the conventional monitor- more brief essays ("profiles") which bring tt,gether ing system. We turn now to examine in more detail many anticipated developments in a major subject area four other services which are distinctive-in-several (e.g., defense or transportation). The orientation of the important ways: not only do they involve special newsletter is technological, but political, economic,' approaches and unique data banks, but, significantly, and socialdevelopmentsincreasinglyare being they are offered by organizations having a full-time interwoven in the "profiles" and in the list of forecasts. concern with the study of the future. In and of The annual subscription fee is $36. themselves, these services are comprehensive "futures monitoring" systems, though they are different from each other in perspective, scope, and objective. The Foodindustry Futures four are the AWARE program of the Institute for the Future, the PREDICASTS® service of Predicasts, Another newsletter availableisFood Industry Inc., and the SCOUT® and PROSPECTSeservices of Fmres ,publishedtwice a month by Executive The Futures Group. Strategy Services Co. This timely, interesting, and informativepublicationcontainssummariesof reported developments and activities affecting the food Project AWARE industry, as well as specific forecasted events published in other sources. All areas related to the food and One of the very few "futures monitoring" services beverage industry are dealt with, including food that brings the immediate intended user into the process of forecasting so that he can help shape the interviewee was asked to pretend that he was with a final product is the Institute for the Future's Project clairvoyant (i.e., a person with perfect information AWARE This is a multiclient effort available by about the future). and to pose as many questions as subscription ($40,000 a year for each of three years). It he wished about futures important to him. The is- supported presently by four or five major private typical interviewee, after some initial hesitation, corporations in the United States.7 The immediate generated some 15 questions, and these, it appeared users in this case are key executives and plannersin in subsequent analysis, fell into rather plausible these organizations. Each year's work involves these categories, such as regulatory behavior by govern- personi and outside experts in the identification and ment,competitivethreatsfromabroad,the systematic assessment of specific potential events and availability of energy, and so on. trends within a broad framework of five categories: 2.Next, the interviewee was asked to create two technology, society, government regulations, scenarios, one "dismal" and one "rosy" in its impact economics, and the international environment. Within on his corporation if it actually materialized. The each of these categories; problems as diverse as interviewees were asked to define each of these two business practices, health care, transportation, basic worlds as consisting of a set of trendS and events science; energy, and food resources are singled out-di such that there was a 10.percent chance-thatthe topics of particular concern. (In the first year's actual future world might be even better= the program, some70 participants found well over 1000 "rosy" case) or worse (in the "dismal" case) than the specific issues in these areas, of Which-73 were dealt- worlds he described. The Institute found that while with in detail.) Additionally, attention is paid to the most of the interviewees were readily able to define forces that may influence the nature and likelihood of the dismal world, they had greater difficidty with the the forecasted possibilities, and to policy options that rosy onea result which would probably be true -may be worth attention if these events do or do not today of the answers that would be given by most occur. Each-client receives &common annual report on persons, though it stands in some contrast to-the the results, as well as a report that tailors these results often observed optimism of futures researchers to his company's unique concerns. The common themselves. report, divided- into separate documents on major 3.Finally, the interviewee was asked to review the themes, will be made available to the public beginning collated and analyzed responses on the first two in 1976 in a bimonthly series of short reports, entitled questions from allof theindividualsinhis PERSPECTIVES. corporation, including his own. From these he . selected a subset within the control of his company, ProlectAWARE concerns itself with futures that lie especially those which, if not dealt with, would have at least five years ahead, centering aroung 1985. The a significant financial impact on the company's principal method of investigation, at least during operations in the period of interest. AWARE's first year, involved a carefully designed sequence of interviews, data collection, pollingof outside experts (usually through questionnaire), data Thus, out of the interviews came lists of trends and integration and analysis, and reporting. Of greatest events sorted as to relevance totheparticular interest, perhaps, was the ingenious structure of the corporation and as to actionability by that corpora- interviews and of the poll of outside experts. tion. From the rank-ordered lists for each client, dropping the items repeated in two or more organizA- The purpose of the interviews, which were two-part, individual, hour-long sessions with as many as 20 dons, it was possible to derive a list of 73 issues for study.Withtheassistanceof outside persons from each of the client organizations, was not further specialists, the Insitute then examined each issue in to identify directly the specific threats and oppor- order to identify the specific questions that seemed tunities most urgently requiring forecasting, but rather necessary to ask if the issue were to be explored in to gain insight into thekindsorcategoriesof information that the interviewees would most like to depth. (Among the kinds of questions explicitly ruled haveand to determine the potential value of this out in this step were those that were judged to have "already been answered in the published literature"; information if it actually were in hand. To these ends, the interview moved through the following three presumably, the references in such cases were passed along to the clients, though itis not clear from activities, the first two in the initial interviews, and the published subscriptions of Project AWARE that this third in the follow-on interview: was done.) The results were incorporated into a 1. During the first few minutes of the interview, the questionnaire, which was administered, after one 219229 locryening step, to a panel of outside experts selected doubt it will be watched closely to sec if it escapes the jointly by the Institute and the clients. fate of other extremely broad forecasting systems (such The intervening step represents one of the most as TRW's ill-starred PROBE experiment), especially interesting aspects of the AWARE project and may on the questions of credibility and utility. If early press with a good deal of further experimentation, be areports are any indication, interpretation also may prototypeforsimilar kinds of investigations per - prove to be an issue. Thus, two reporters viewing the same results saw some of them quite differently. One formed'bytothersr It involved meeting with the experts said,for example, that AWARE forecasted full individually and testing them on their "assessing socialization of medicine by 1982'and an unlocking of ability." The test made use of 20almanac questions, the "the mysteries" of wrinkling and baldness by 1985. The answers to which could be looked up but were almost other gave the same events probabilities of 90 perciiit certainly unknown to any of the candidate respondents and 40 percent respectively, by 1985.8 More seriously, (e.g., What is the longest jump ever recorded for a actual users may be forced to wonder about the flea?). For each question, the respondent was asked to meaning of such vaguelyexpressed forecast statements estimate the range of values which would have at least as "Community review of factory locations" or"Many an 80 percent chance of including the correct value. An chemical pesticides phased out" or "Wide use of -ideal- respondent- would have provided -the proper range for at least 16 of the 20 questions. As it turned computers in elementary schools." A basic continuing problem infuturesresearchistheimprecision out..in.thefirsiapplication.of this.tesLonly_one.of_the_ (-vagueness or ambiguitSrioTforecaii statements. Fe experts did so; the average was about 6 questions out of 20. These results were used by the Institute to compute organizations have been as attentive to this problem as a "correction factor" for each expert, so that his the Institute, and it may be expected that the staff will be more successful as time passes in dealing with it in quantitative answers on the questionnaire itself could Sc adjusted to reflect the likelihood that he might be the AWARE program, which inmany respects outside of the range that would include the "right" promises to fill important needs. answer. On the questionnaire. the respondents were not only asked to answer questions about the 73 issues. but also PREDICASTS toindicatetheirsubstantive expertiseon each question. using a 5-point verbal scale that was later Predicasts,Inc.,locatedinCleveland,Ohio, translated into logarithmic values. with "expert" describes itself as "the leading integrated business I. Thus. in the receiving a 16 and "unfamiliar" a information-research firm in the world." It publishes analysisof the responses to derive a consensus judgment from the respondents as a group. the reports on the technology and business outlook in particular industries or product groups; performs Institute was able to take each estimate. adjust it with original studies on a grofirittarjrbaaleeirilliVidiiat the appropriate "correction factor," and then weight it clients; offers special library services (such as custom by the "expertise" value. Final values for the group were then normalized; from the normalized estimates. bibliographies); and issues several abstract journals (e.g.,Chemical Market AbstractsandElectronics and the expected value of each forecast, as well as its 10. 50, Equipment Market Abstracts,as well as a series, under and 90 probability percentiles. was computed. the general title PREDI-BRIEFS, which involves a Nonquantitative information was also generated separate bulletin in each of some 35 areas, from through the questionnaire, of course. The analysis of agricultural chemicals to transportation electronics). this material and the derivation of consensus were Predicasts also publishes the well-known F&S Indexes performed judgmentally: an effort was made to give (five different titles), and, what is important here, publishes two major forecast series, PREDICASTS greater weight to the self-appraised "expert" answers, and WORLDCASTS .8 Because PREDICASTS and though this necessarily had to be done subjectively by WORLDCASTS differ significantly only the investigators. in geographical coverage, the former being limited to the Project AWARE certainly will undergo substantial United States and the latter covering the rest of the de% clopment in the sears ahead as new clients are world, the ;ollowing discussion of PREDICASTS can added and the methodology is refined. As one of the be taken as a description of WORLDCASTS as well. most ambitious of the systems for monitoring and The annual subscription fee for PREDICASTS is coming to grips with the challenges of the future, no S375; for WORLDCASTS it is 5600. 220 2ju PREDICASTS (likeallof the other services Accordir.r to Predicasts, six types of information provided by the company) is based on a regular reading are take& into account in their forecasts: of about- 1000 trade,professional, and business I. Historical data on the relevant indicator. (These journals. When forecasts on particular economic data, particularly-on rates of change in the indicator _ matters or manufactured products are encountered, come into play only in the final stage of projection, they are extracted by readers who record the source and serve to provide a check on the plausibility of the and date, translate them into common units (e.g., short projection.Iftheforecastisjudgedto be tons rather than long or metric tons), rewrite them in a unreasonablethat is, too far out of line with the standard single-line format, and arrange them by SIC historical recordit is done over again.) codenumber. PREDICASTSreportsappear 2. Published forecasts on the indicator in question. quarterly; each typically includes 10,000 such business (These are forecasts of the sort described above.) forecasts. A portion of a representative page is shown 3. Published forecasts of the components of the in Table 2. indicator in question. (For example, if the series of 'interest were ddineStic consumption of rubber; the No claim is made as to the accuracy or reliability of component indicators would include synthetic such individual forecasts, but the company does argue rubber production, i.nports,_exports, and so on.) that these data are, in general, "more accurate than the 4. Published forecasts of broader aggregates of the sources_from....which.they_comen=thanks_to theiact indicator-in question:-(For-rubber-consumption, that in the five editing stages through which each item these might include automobile tire requirements passes,the meaning of terms canbe clarified, per car, automobile registrations, replacement tire typographical errors in the original can be caught, and demand, and r.o on.) authors can be contacted in especially perplexing 5. Mathematicalrelationshipsbetween forecasted cases. On the other hand, the very act of publishing indicators that are causally related. (These es- theseforecasts does carry withit some implicit timating relationships are the key to the exploitation assumptions that are crucial.First,thereis the of the component and aggregate forecasts.) assumption that the data about the future that are of 6. Mathematical or judgmental relationships between greatest value or significance to the user are precisely analoguus indicators and the data of 2, 3, 4, or 5. those market-related quantitative forecasts that fit (These analogies consider either rates of substitution within the SIC scheme. This is patently absurd, as of one product for another or "international Predicasts would admit, but the opposite impression is crossovers," i.e., the extent to which developments reinforced by systematically excluding all forecasts of in one country or area may be a precursor of similar social,pplitical,administrative,scientific,value- developments in the country of interest.) related, and other kinds of change pertinent to business affairs. Second, it is assumed that all of the included With reference, then, to thislistof elements, a events are equally probable; indeed, they are treated as composite forecast is made as follows: First, the if their probability were unity. This, too, is false, as the published forecasts (item 2) are averaged; this result is sources themselves would be the first to say. Finally, it set aside for the moment. Next, each set of component is assume-2 that all of the sources are equally credible forecasts (item 3) is averaged and the results are then an especially dangerous notion,ifbelieved. A analyzed using the relationships of items 5 and 6 to sophisticated user would of course, be a ware of these derive a value for the indicator in question. The same is dangers; the only problem is that a novice (or even an done for the aggregate forecasts (item 4), at which experienced planner unaccustomed to thinking in point the two estimates are compared. If they turn out terms of probabilities) would not. to be different, adjustments are made on either side. Once the two are brought into agreement, the projected value is compared to the averaged projection The second of the two sections in a PREDICASTS for the indicator itself (item 2) and to the historical report builds on these forecasts in order to provide growth rate for theindicator (itemI).If these what the company calls a "composite forecast" of each comparisons prove implausible, the entire process is of 500 key time series out to 1985. Here a claim is repeated.Some actualcompositeforecastsare madenamely, that these are "the most accurate" presented in Table 3. forecasts of any on the same time series from any source. We shall return to this remarkable assertion Obviously. this technique, which has been used afterreviewingthe method usedto prepare a under other names by other researchers.w depends composite forecast. heavily on thequality of boththe estimating 2213 1 Table 2 Types of Information Included in the "Abstracts" Section ofa Predinests Report STATUS, OR WHAT HAPPENS? WH AT AFFECTING WHAT? BASE PERIOD DetTA PRIMARY LONG HANGEFORECAST (WHEN APPROPRIATE) YEAR'QUANTITY YEAR PRODUCT? QUANTITY- SIC YEARS r QUANTITIES UNIT OF SOURCE NO PRODUCT 'A EVENTPRODUCT 13 S L i 4 a i's L., MEASURE JOURNAL DATE PAGE Polystyrene (Cont) 28213 105 Polystyrene used in furniture 69 70 75 75. 85. 200. it lbs C&E News 28213 105 Polystyrene used in 11/16/70 18 furniture - - 75 - 250. 28213 105 Polystyrene mil lbs Mod Plast 1//71 44 used in furniture 69 70 75 75. 90. 300. , 28213 105 Polystyrene mil lbs Mod Plast 8//70 60 used in furniture 70 75 90. 200. 28213I05 Polystyrene 80/ 600. mil lbs Plast Tech 9//70 40 used in molding & extruding 70k - 75 2000. - 3440. mil lbs OPD Rep 5/17/71 11 28213 105 Polystyrene used in injection molding 70 - 75 1500. - 2500. mil lbs -M: od Plast 12//70 47 .._ fe; _ SIC CODING WITH - INDICATES TIME PERIOD GIVES DETAILED ALPHABETICAL ACCESS BACK PAGES IF NOT CALENDAR YEAR DISCUSSION TELL WHO SAID IT 232 233 Table 3 Typical Composite Forecasts by Predicasts GROSS NATIONAL PRODUC HISTORICAL FORECASTED ANNUAL GROWTH ITEM 1957/9 1960/2 1963/5 196W8 1970 1971 1972 1973 1975 1980 1965 '1960/70 Billion Dollars at 1970 Prices GROSSNATIONAL PRODUCT 623.1 6852 786.5 919.2 976.4 1001.2 1063.5 1122.0-1215 1473 1749 4.2% FERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES . 383.3 423.0 485.6 560.5 616.8 639.3 675.5 711.0 769 936 1115 4.3% Durable Goods 44.7 50.1 65.1 .82.0 90.5 100.3 112.0 119.5 128 158 189 5.7% Nondurable Goods 181.2 196.2 217.6 244.5 264.4 269.6 -281.5 294.5 314 373 434 3.5% Services- 157.4 176.7 202.9 234.0 261.8 269.4 282.0 297.0 327 405 492 4.5% GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 91.4 98.6 119.1 138.2 137.1 143.5 162.0 171.5 184 221. 258 4.9% 'Residential Structures 31.0 31.4 34.0 30.3 31.2 40.7 48.0 44.5 44 51 50 5.0% Nonresidential Structures 25.9 26.8 30.1 35.6 36.0 34.8 34.5 36.5 40 46 51 2.5% Producers Durable Equipment 32.9 35.8 46.8 61.2 64.9 64.9 73.5 81.5 91 113 141 5.7% Change in Business Inventory 1.7 4.6 8.2 11.1 4.9 3.1 5.5 9.0 9 11 14 8.4% r NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES 3.9 6.0 8.6 4.1 r..) 3.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 3 4 5 1.1% c..4 Exports 29.4 34.2 42.6 51.4 62.9 63.4 xx% Imports 25.5 28.2 34.0 47.2 59.3 62.3 xx% GOVERNMENT PURCHASES GDS & SERVICES 144.5 157.8 175.2 216.3 219.0 217.3 227.0 238.5 259 312- 373 3.6% Federal Purchases 78.3 82.5 87.3 108.5 96.5 90.7 93.0 93.5 96 104 112 .8% -National Defense 68.0 68.3 67.1 85.8 75.1 66.2 67.0 65.5 65 67 69 1.1% Other Federal Purchases 10.3 14.2 20.2 22.7 21.5 24.4 62.0 28.0 31 37 43 5.6% State & Local Purchases 66.2 75.2 88.0 107.8 122.5 126.6 134.0 145.0 163 208 261 5.4% DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 417.3 456.1 527.7 618.7 689.5 717.3 748.3 794.0 843 1025 s.t 1220 3.9% Billion Current Dollars GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 457.3 528.0 635.9- 802.7 976.4 1050.4 1151.5 1261.51442 1878 2665 7.3% -PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES. 294.2 338.5 403.0 498.2 616.8 664.9 721.0 784.0 890 1219 1641 7.0% Durable Goods 41.0 46.3 59.8 76.0 90.5 103.5 116.5 127.0 139 183 233 7.3% Nondurable Goods 140.8 156.6 179.5 217.6 264.4 278.1 29.8 324.0 363 479 623 6.1% Services 112.4 135.6 163.7 204.6 261.8 283.3 305.5 333.0 388 557 .785 7.8% GROSSPRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 68A 76.5 96.4 121.3 137.1 152.0 179.0 196.5 224 309 , 405 8.5% Residential Structures 22.2 23.6 27.1 26.7 31.2 42.6 53.0 51.0 55 77 90 9.5% Nonresidential Structures 17.1 18.6 22.1 28.9 36.0 38.4 42.0 46.5 55 76 Producers Durable Equipment 27.3 30.5 40.1 55.6 64.9 67 4 78.0 89.0 103 Change in Business Inventory 1.5 3.9 7.1 10.0 4.9 3.6 6.0 NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES Exports Imports 235 234 relationships and the underlying model of the input well, sometimes.dramatically, with the general result an-output-characteristics of the "system" being that the average error for these-forecasts rises to 9.2 explored. While Predicasts declares that "everything is percent and the median error to 4.5 percent-an related to everything," an assumption thatmost indifferent performance in comparison to the projec- forecasters would share, the company has not revealed tions by other organizations of the same kinds of the details of its model. As noted before, however, the indicators.12 company does declare that its composite forecasts have no peers in confirmed accuracy, either in short-term While Predicasts' assertions of phenomenalac- projections (e.g.,.GNP one year hence) or in theiong- curacy should thus not be taken too seriously, it should term (10 to 15 years ahead). The latter case is based also be clearly recognized that these assertions reston principally on the outcome in 1970 for a series of forecasts made a good many years ago. Since then the estimates made by Predicasts in 1960; these projections composite forecasting technique has no doubt been and outcomes are compared in Table 4, which has been steadily refined, the Predicasts data bank has become published widely in Predicasts' advertising literature. much richer (it now includes time- Series data back to 1960 on some 15,000 indicators), and a good-deal,of- Several observations can be made about,the.rcsuld` practical experience has been gained in bringingone to shown inthistable.First, though most -of the bear on the other. For any of a number of purposes, the individual percentages for deviation arewrong, the PREDICASTS service can be valuable today, andas , average discrepancy is in fact quite low (3.4 percent as the years pass, it will be possible to check and improve.___ opposed to the 3.3 percent indicated; the median its accuracy as a device for monitoring the future.. remains the sitiie).11 Nevertheless, the accuracy isnot outstanding, as witness, for example, the forecast of GNP by the National Planning Association over a SCOUT® similar ten-year period (presented earlier in Table 1). NPA's error initsprojection was1.3percent; As far as is known, there are only two large-scale, Predicasts' was-3.2 percent. Comparisons of this sort formalized data banks of forecasted events in the are misleading, however, because Predicasisbaslikila world. The first is the PREDICASTS file; tie secondis three-Year average as the "actual" 1970 value. If the the SCOUT file of The Futures Group. The major -1970 value itself is used, the error on GNP is 4.5 simularities between the two files are that each is based percent. Indeed, when only the 1970 value is employed, principally on forecasts found inthe published the discrepancies for the other- indicators change as literature; each has been designed for computer Table 4 - Claimed Accuracy of Predicasts' Long-Range Forecasts 1970 Forecasts 1960 Made ITEM Actual Oct. 1960 Actual % Deviation General Indicators Population (millions) 179.7 208.7 205.4 1.6 No. of Households (millions) 52.4 62.9 62.9 GNP (bil 70 $) 662 1018 985 3.2 FRB Index Industrial Production 109 163 169 -3.7 Housing Starts(thousands) 1360 1800 1683 6.5 product Production Paper & Paperboard (million tons) 35.5 52.0 53.4 -2.7 Raw Steel (million tons) 104 145 131 9.7 Primary Aluminum (thousand tons) 2050 4000 3906 2.3 Automobiles (thousand units) 6600 8000 7782 2.7 Electric Power (billion kwhrs) 755 1525 152e -0.3 Average Discrepancy 3.3% Median Discrepancy 2.7% Average 1969, 1970, 1971. 2241 1.,storage, analysis, and retrieval; each is used to prepare not the event actually occurred? How objective was the systeMatically Ofgaiiized likings of possible future method used to make the forecast? Whiluthe source deyelopments; each is global in scope; and each limits does not often reveal the method,.an educated guess is its attention only to ;future evente(trends are not made by The Futures Group, using a scheme of about included), In all other respects, the differences between 20 method types:Y/low important is the forecasted the two are substantial. Characteristics of entries in event? That is,if it occurs, is it likely to make a SCOUT file .and of reports based on these entries significant difference to those who will_be affected? which are unique to the system are described in the Lastly, is the forecasted event, as stated, consistent following paragraphs. with other' images of the future? (For example, a forecast of widespread availability of antigravity First, no limitation is placed on subject matter. The machines for personal travel by 1981 would be judged SCOUT file includes forecasts on economic, business, low on this criterion.) These are.not easy standards to and product-related developments,..as does apply, if only because they can require a special PREDICASIS, -but it also encompasses prospective expertise or an insider's knoWledge. Yet sir-Vices like scientific and technological changes; developments in SCOUT would seem to demand a quality screen, and in- ,political; demographic, and personal affairs; these criteria are no doubt a step in the right direction. stitutional clanges; and changes concerned with Retrospective searches on the filea-possibility that administrative Practice, research capabilities, and so has been discussed at The Futures Groupare or.e topics on. Some dikes,- entr,iesareteneral and cover means that can be used to improve the criteria and their vhii.aiia-re tiiffidultibguautifi;'iuch as future values or application in assigning a quality rating." geopolitical developments; others are concerned with specific detail in precise domains, such as per capita Fourth, any relevant material provided by the energy consumption in the United States by i980.As source in addition to the forecast itself is also recorded of December 1975, some 45,000 forecasts from about and may be included in the SCOUT listing if requested. 8500 sources were in the SCOUT file, and additional Five kinds of supplementary material are captured: forecasts were being added at the rate of 100-300 a consequences (developments that are suggested as week._ being likely to transpire if the event occurs); sub- _Second, each SCOUT report is custom made, forecasts (associated forecasted developments that vaguely.expressed-to be typically to the specifications of a single client. To be appear-important but are included in the file as separate entries); background specific: SCOUT reports are issued under one of three information (any qualitative information, such as a arrangements: (1) A report may be proprietary to the definition, provided to clarify the meaning of the event client; the subject of the search is not revealed publicly and the client has exclusive rights to the material, being forecasted); historical data (any quantitative which means that The Futures Group will not information, such as a data point or a time series); undertake a search on the same subject for another identification of the ultimate source (bibliographic client. Compilations of this sort cost $1950 each. (2) A information acknowledging that the source has report may be prepared on a proprietary basis, with the derived the forecast from still another author). understanding that after three months it may be Fifth, a record is made not only of the .date of announced publicly and be made available to anyone possible occurrence of the event, but also of its else who requests it. Such a report costs $1450. (3) probability by that date. SCOUT is unique among Finally, there are reports. of the second sort that have futures monitoring services in deriving probabilities become publicly available, as well as occasional for events found in the literature, and the procedure by reports prepared by The Futures Group onsubjects which this is accomplished is worth attention, since that seem to be of general interest, such as future probabilitiesareoftenuseful and thesources Japanese technology or the future of leisure. These themselves rarely provide them. No attempt is made, of reports cost $925 each. A typical report in any ofthese course, to determine what was in the author'smind; three series will include 300-500 forecasts from 100-300 this would be impracticalatbest, and usually sources. impossible in fact. Rather, what is recorded is the Third, an overall judgment is made about the quality probabilitywhich someone veryfamiliarwith of each forecast before it is used in a report. For this forecasting or futures research would be likely to purpose,several properties of the forecasts are impute to the event when he reads it. Thus, the author's considered. Is it expressed precisely enough so that it received meaning as opposed to his intended meaning will be possible to determine after the fact whether or is presented in SOCUT, the assumption being that the 225 237 former is a dose approximation of the latterindeed, between adjacent nonsynonymous terms is only 5.4 -the-closest- approximation one can probably ever percentage points.) obtain.1 More important, the consensus within the group as The actual quantitative values used for probability to the relative position of the terms in the spectrum was assignments in SCOUT were established through an quite strong.is Still more important, however, it experiment conducted in the_fall of 1971." A list of appeared that the expert subgroup was better able than words and phrases commonly used in stating future the group as a whole to identify and estimate the events was drawn from the literature. Suppose that X is probability of a set of nonsynonymous terms across the an anticipated state of affairs; then examples of such spectrum. This result is shown in Figures 2 and 3. locutions would include: Figure 2, which presents the results for the entire group, shows the distribution of median probability Xis inevitable estimatesiOr the 19 terms interpreted by the group as X iscertain having unique values; note the unusual overestimation Xwill happen of the likelihood of terms with a probability, greater X isvirtually certain than .50. Figure 3 on the right (for the expert highly, certain subgroup) includes 17 terms, and clearly reveals no X islikely such tendency. X isprobable What can be made of thisresult? While the X isas likely as not experiment was flawed in a number of important ways, Xmight happen it appeared at the time that two safe conclusions could Xis possible be drawn: (1) it would be improper to assume that fine X isnot too likely quantitative distinctions, could be drawn between X isunlikely different words,16 but (2) it was nevertheless possible in Xis improbable fact to derive an acceptable probability estimate from a X isalmost impossible PC, wholly qualitative forecast. Thus encouraged, The X will,not happen. Futures Group has since pursued this notion in-the- development of its SCOUT file. For the initial experiment, 29 expressions of this sort were evaluated. Each was written on a separate 3 by 5 As of this writing, the original list of 29 words and in. card, along with a sentence illustrating its use in phrases has grown to about 60; each is taken to imply a context. The resulting deck of cardswasscrambled and particular probability estimate, and these probabilities then presented individually to a number of persons, are used in SCOUT reports. Most of the terms are who were asked, first, to arrange the cards so that the considered, of course, to be synonymous. (Thus, for expressionswouldbeinorderofascending example, 11 of them are given a value of .75, and there probability. (Terms considered to be synonymous were are no terms with a value of .76, .77, .78, and so on.) simply to be put next to each other:) After this .was Moreover,itis recognized that a good deal of done, the person being interrogated wal-giVen-a pencil additional experimentation is required to put this and asked to go through the deck card by card and to approach on a better footing." For this reason, the indicate, using a scale running from .01 to .99, the probability of every forecast entered into the SCOUT actual probability he would assume the author had in file carries with it an additional code, keying the value mind-in-making-a-forecast in these terms. (Synonyms to the specific tern.; on which it is based. (For instance; could thus be identified explicitly.) a forecast might read, "Commercial availability of Medians were found forall of the estimates diagnostic kit for simple blood and urine tests in the obtainednot only for the group of participants as a home is as likely as not by 1985.' When entered into whole, but also for a subset of persons (approximately SCOUT, the associated- probability code would be 70 percent of the total) judged by the experimenter to .5007, where .50 is the probability itself, and 07 refers be highly familiar with, or expert in, the making of uniquely to thephrase "as likely as not.") In this way, it forecasts and the handling of probabilities. The overall willeasily be possibletoupdate the imputed median results were as shown in Figure 1a striking probabilities if further research suggests that particular outcome in thatitindicated that the sample of terms have been misinterpreted.18 expressions covered the entire probability spectrum Another distinctive feature of SCOUT is that each without any serious gaps. (The average difference forecastis indexed using the Legislative Indexing 2A' 1213 141516171$ 19321U3243262/3a 1 2 3 4 5_6 7 I 9 10 11 Ua i :I rliTvi 1 I.:. _ -. 1 I4IV111 12 I I iii.I.Emi1 §1ill111.1 ilijilli.e.11-4ZAIISIIiii3-1NR-1 , 110 . 15 ' . I I 50 .. 2 25 . n Figure 1. Distribution of overall median responses Vocabulary (LIV) developed by the Congressional pertinent to the search request. These results are Research Service of the Library of Congress. Forecasts compared against an outline developed earlier in are then filed by each termused. Thus, many different consultation with the client, and, where weaknesses are types of searches can be performedusing these terms apparent, additional reading is done by thestaff of The singly or in combination. Indeed, thevariety of Futures Group to round out the final listing. Tc put it searches is remarkably large, since a user can framehis differently, SCOUT reports typically invoNe original. request by specifying not only a particularcombina- directed research; indeed, preparation customarily tion of indexing terms, but also aprecise time limit, a requires three to four weeks, only a few days of which certainqualitylevel,alimit on probability,a are spent in tapping the databank. combination of methods, and so on. One last feature of the SCOUT service that should be mentioned is that only rarely is a reportbased To illustrate how some of the features ofSCOUT exclusively on the forecasts already in the file. In the come together in an actual SCOUTlisting, we present usual case, the file is scanned to extract forecasts an extract from such a reportin Table 5.19 227 23j 111 PROSPECTS® PROSPECTS is a data and forecasting service that was first announced by The Futures Group in the fall 75 of 1973. Methodologically, its uniqueness and interest lie principally in its being basedon the use of trend impact analysis (TIA), an approach to trend extrapola- tion in which a computer-generated projection ofa timeseriesis systematically perturbed by taking account of judgmental estimates of the possible occurrence and influence of unprecedented events relevanttothetimeseries.20Substantively,its uniqueness lies in its attempt to explore the future of entire industry sectors, going well beyond the usual economic analyses by examining social, legislative, managerial,technological,andotherforcesor developments that have a probability of shaping the future of these industries. in considering 1 so broad and 1 2 4 56 7 1 $1 1 1 4 1 6 1 ! 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 6 2 72 1 complex an interplay of factors, in making extensive Terms use of the opinions of groups of experts, and in providing means for regularly eliciting feedback from Figure 2. Distribution with synonyms removed users of the service, PROSPECTS resembles Project' (overall medians) AWARE of theInstitutefor the Future. But PROSPECTS is less diffuse (in that it is limitedto specific sectors); its structure is more formal (in that it is organized around a predetermined set of indicators IN for each of the sectors); and its approach- ismore 1011111MMINIM111111111111 objective (in that-all major assumptions underlying the 110111 1111111111 extrapolations are stated and thus can be examined for RIMMINIIMIMME reasonableness in the present and accuracy in the future). 1111111011111111111=111111E 11111111EMEIMUMMIIII PROSPECTS is available on!', through subscrip- 111111111311INIM tion. The first business sector analyzed in this service 111111111111MINIMMIIIMII was the pharmaceutical industry. For this specific 1111111111111111MMIIIIMIE PROSPECTS, The Futures Group teamedin September 1975 with 1MS America, Ltd.,a well 1111111111111111111111111M1 known market research firm, to producea jointly- researched service. Subscribers receive about 140 1111111111111111111111111111 forecasts of time series indicators each 111111111UNIMR01111.11111111 year (ap- EMMIMIN111111111111111111 proximately 25 indicator analyses are sentat 60-day intervals). A single data unit package is devotedto each 11111M111111MILIMM indicator forecast.Data units are self-contained 11111111111111111111 multipage presentations of six different types of 111111111111111111MMIMINIIIIIN information:a graphof the indicatoritself, 1111111111111111111111111001M1 a projection of a range of values for the indicator outto 11111111=1111111111101111111 the end of the period of interest,21a table giving 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 historLal data on other time series pertinentto the 3 46 7 110111314 1611 21 22 23 24 26 21 indicator, a brief description of forces and events that Terms have influenced the indicator in the pastor may be Figure 3. Distribution with synonyms removed influencing it currently, a list of all of the forecasted events used in the I IA extrapolation (along with the (expert medians) actual ' stimates regarding the future likelihood and 228 24u Table 5 A Sample Page From a Scout Report Category: Social Developments: The Social Setting: Public Services (Health Care) Scout Fite Source Number Code Forecasted Event Prob/year Meth Qual 000309 00016 Automated medical diagnosis and individual monitoring. .50 /1975 01 02 016751 00018 The implementation of a comprehensive federal health .50 /1976 01 03 insurance program. 4 ;, 010151 00388 Widespread use of monitoring devices attached directly to .50 /1978 06 02 the patient in his home. 010150 00388 Insurance covers 75% of all health costs. .50 /1978 06 04 Index number Historical Data: N_ in the SCOUT Quality system Method number - 1971 = 25% evaluation (keyed to a by The Futures code of about 004144 00121 Computer-assisted interpretation of quantifiable medit.al i Group (scale: 20 method types) 0-5, where 5 is tests. e.g.. EKG. EEG. etc.. for 20% of the physicians. highest) 004121 00121 Implementation of Health Information systems in 20% .99 / 1980 06 of U.S. metropolitan areas. 004462 00215 90% of the United States population are enrolled in .75 / 1980 16 03 Code number health maintenance organizations. identifying source of the Consequence: Estimated forecast (a probability complete bib- These organizations would encourage of occurrence liography is e:ticiency and place emphasis on of the event presented at the end of.the keeping people healthy rather than report) on treating illnesses after they occur. Year by which 0 sw:179 02145 Computer,: are used for medical diagnosis in most .50/ 1910 probability hospitals of occurrence of the event Examples of is anticipated supplem Itary 1 Forecasted event, to reach the i 242 241 inform,:in value indicated impact of the even ),u and a bibliography showing the The same test applies, of course, to the other futures source(s) for each of the events. monitoring services consich:ced in these pages. Indeed, The 140 indicator projections cover six subjects the most important research questions raised by these important to the future of this industry sector: services concern their valueto* users. Whatuses are demography, pers3nal and national economics, sales being made these services? How often?.By whom? to of drug products, the pharmaceutical industry, health what effect? What can be done to increase the utility of statistics, and retailing and distribution. In addition, these services? What guidance can be given to help clients receive individual forecasts for sales of each of users compare and evaluate alternative services? What their major products. Thus the service is tailored to can the services themselves dole) help ensure that they meet the demands for enyironmental forecasts, as well are being used properly, in full view of their strengths as the need for speck company planning information. and limitations? These are not easy questions, but they iiittifigreitigation.. Such a study would be valuable The cost of a one-year subscription to PROSPECTS even if it contributed no more than a detailed insight is based on each company's sales volume andranges into how information is captured by these servicesan from $7500 to $15,000. The service also includes issue that has been addressed only lightly in this consultation with The Futures Group and IMS chapter and is never discussed in the directories and America about the projections and their implications. guidebooks on "the future" that appear froth time to time. But if the study were performed by diiinterested PROSPECTS is too new a service to be evaluated. analysts who were granted reasonable access to the Major problems regarding the TIA approach have organizations involved, the results could be much been discussed earlier in this volume,23 and work is more significant, in that they would allow users to tell underway at The Futures Group to overcome them. whether a service occupies its niche because it is good The crucial test, however, will be how and with what or is good merely because it occupies its niche. Our consequences PROSPECTS is actually used by its impression is that this matter is still undecided in subscribers. nearly every case. 230 2 4 FOOTNOTES This general definition,itwill be noted. implies that an 9 Actually, there are two WORLDCASTS reports: WCALD- environment is context-dependent: environments can and do vary REGIONAL-CASTS: which arranges forecasts by country, and with decisions and policies, as well as with policymakers. The WORLD-PRODUCT-CASTS, which arranges them by industry. definition also implies that the conditions comprising an environ- The same forecasts are included in each series. ment can include those that are entirely ow of man's controland 10 For example, much the same approach was developed those that are man-made but unintended. Other writers have taken a independently by Harold S. Becker and Theodore J. Gordon at The much'narrower point of view; for examp le. Theodore J. Rubin posits Futures Group for use in a 1971 study of Japanese steel production a single environment and characterizes it "as a setof outcomes. and consumption. Becker called the technique the "balanced situations, or social conditions which is the policy consequence of extrapolation procedure." figures" the interaction of technology and social institutions." (Seehis It may be noted in passing that many of the 1960"actual 99.3 million tons "Toward Information Systems for Environmental Forecasting," in are also wrong;Tor example, steel production was million James R. Bright and Milton F. Schoeman-(eds.), Technological rather than 104 million, aluminum production was 2.034 Forecasting: An Academic Inquiry [Canoga Park, Calif.: XYZYX, tor; rather than 2.050 million, housing starts were 1.296million Information Corp.. 1970]. p. 362.) This restricted definition may rather than 1.36 and so on. These errors need not have maki'monitoring simpler, but it virtually ensures that important affected the forecasts, of course, but they do raise queitions about considerations will be missed or ignored. the quality of the Predicasts data base and the reliability of the 2 One of the few available descriptions of a business system is H.E. procedures used in its manipulation. Sorrows, "Inductrial Technical Intelligence." Research Manage- 12 These percentages were derived using only nine of the ten ment. Vol.10, No. 4 (1967). pp. 217-227.- which describes the indicators. The FRB Index of Industrial Production was omitted found --,monitoring system he helped to establish at Texas Instruments. The because the Predicasts values for 1960 and 1970 could not be TI' appioachan elaborate but apparently productive one in checking such standard sources as the Statistical Abstracts. involved four phases: (I) data collection-(through the literature, 13 Needless to say, many other kinds of retrospective tests can and personal contacts, professional meetings, and searches of the Patent should be performed.on the SCOUT and PREDICASTS files. A Office files); (2) classification, abstracting, andliling of this material series of publicly-reported experiments (conducted, say, every two (rapid retrieval was a goal); (3) evaluation (screening of the years for a period of ten years) would give profoundinsight into the information against company interests, judging its quality and actual state-of-the-art in forecastingand into the possibilities,if reliability,forecastingitsimplications, and gathesizing ac- any, of improving it. cumulated information to produce new intelligence); and (4) 14 This work was done by W.I. Boucher. building on an ideafirst dissemination (through several series of regular documents, special advanced by Andrew J. Lipinski of the Insitute for the Future, who used in analyses.-and consultation). . * was interested in determining if wholly qualitative scales 3 See Jay S. Mendell and Alfred W. Mueller. "Social and Delphi studies could be satisfactorily converted to quantitative ones Technolcigical Intelligence." Technology Assessment, Vol. 2, No. I by the intermediary (i.e., the individuals conducting the study). (1973), pp. 47-59. See also James R. Bright. "Evaluating the Signals 15 To gain some insight into the possibility that this agreement was of Technological Change." Harvard Business Review, Vol. 48 only a peculiarity of the group, a check was made in anunabridged dictionary to determine whether or not relevant meanings of anyof (January 1970), pp. 62-70. If so, and if 4 This discussion updates to January 1976 (and substantially the 29 terms were defined by using other terms on the list. widely extends) a similar review in Wayne I. Boucher. Descriptionof a the terms considered synonymous in the dictionary were list, then the results might be System for Identifying and Evaluating Important Social Trends, separated in the group's final Report 67-37-01 (Glastonbury. Conn.. The Futures Group. January questioned. As it turned out, there were 17 cases of citeularity, and "certain" 1973). pp. 4-23. It should be emphasized. of course. that change is as all but two of them confirmed the group's opinion. Thus, "pussible." "impossible" by much a feature of these systems as it is of society in general. The best was defined by "inevitable." "likely" by source of current information is the source; themselves;these "unlikely." and so on. paragraphs are intended only to point toward representative lb This is indicated by the fact that the experts recognized more synonyms than the group as a whole and by thefact that the spread in sources. 5 From a talk by Blzke T. Newton. Jr. at a TAP Conference, percentage points between adjacent terms in the experts'list was 6.1, November 19-21, 1972. as opposed to 5.4 for the group's. 6 Wilfred Lewis, Jr.. "Long Term Economic and Demographic In the original experiment, the terms were evaluated without Forecasts for States and Regions" (Washingtoi: D.C.. National reference to a time horizon. Yet it seems plausible that the Planning Association Reprint). probability attributed to, say, "unlikely" might change if we were 7 See "A Think Tank That Helps Cn 'patties Plan,' Business speaking of 2025 versus 1985. Similarly, no distinction was madein Week, Nc. 2294 (August 25. 1973). pj . 70-71, from v. hid some of the earlier work between the probability of an event in aparticular however. the the details in these paragraphs sere drawn. Extensive use nasalso year and its probability by that year Presumably, been made of material in Roy Amara and Andrew J. Lipinski. distinction changes the meaning. It might be mentioned in passing "Project AWARE. SocietalTrends andthe Corporation." that a similar and also very promisingline of research stillawaits its Tomorrow Begins Today (Nes York. The Chemical Marketing first investigation. Here, the task would be to ascertain, Research Association. November 1973), pp. 42-49. the extent to which words and phrases used to describe time horizons Compare the Business If zei article cited in fn. 7 with Richard can be translated into actual periods of time,such as numbers of Boeth, "Updating the Crystal Ball." News.ceel, (November 27. years. (Examples include "in the near future,""soon," "in this 1973), pp. 101-102. generation." "in a matter of years,' "at some point," "before long." 231 244 and so on.) The problem is much more complex in this case, since the based on the SCOUT system,The SCOUT INDEX. The SCOUT analysis of such phrases is extremely dependent on a knowledge of INDEXis a monthly publication presenting all the foriciiti the personality and position of the speaker, the subject being extracted during the preceding month and arranged by the LIV forecasted, arsd the general environment, butit -is easy to subject headings. An entry includes all of the data of a SCOUT demonstrate that even a rough solution could produLt highly report, excluding quality and method.The SCOUT INDEX valuable data for planning and policymaking. provides current information about what events are being forecasted 18 This capability will have to await the day when the SCOUT file and where to locate the information. An annual subscription is $375. is fully computerized. At present only about a third of the recorded Trend impact analysisis described briefly in Chap. 4. forecasts have.been stored on disc, and all searches of the file are incidentally, since TIA draws on the SCOUT file, PROSPECTS done manually. In contrast, the PREDICASTS data bank has also rests to some extent on SCOUT. apparently been totally automated. It is now possible to purchase the 2: A projection of this sort from Pharmaceutical PROSPECTS PREDICASTS service on tape, and the company is working to appears in Chap. 4. make all of its files available to customers via terminal. 22 Also illustrated in Chap. 4. 19 In mid-1975. The Futures Group introduced a new service 23 See Chap. 2. ifo t Part IV On the Future of Futures Research 246 Chapter 16 FOrecasting and/or Futures Research John McHale The given brief for this chapter was to look at the or implicit assumpt;ons about the world which might range of areas in which forecasts are made, to assess underlie the basis for forecasting and in which the what kinds of gaps and weaknesses might be identified, nature of causality, itself may be a prime focus for and to ask how these might be influenced by factors enquiry.2 This latter set of questions I take to be within within the field of futures research and by other factors the larger province of futures research. external to the field, In more specific terms, one might also refer to the This seems; at first glance, to be a relatively straight - relative importance of "predictive" forecasting in forward_approach to an important topic. Closer con- futures research. Obviously, for some areas of work sideration, however, raises several latent questions e.g.,short-term economic or technological which may have significance for the larger study of forecastingit is critically important even in the exter- which this paper forms a part. For example: nal predictive sense. In other areas, such as environ- 1. There is a tendency to overemphasize forecasting in mental planning, it may be less important As prediction itself, either by regarding it as one of the main objec- than as "projected alternatives." And in some areas, tives of futures research! or, in some cases, by such as social and cultural projection, it may not only .1w; assuming that the terms "forecasting" and "futures be hazardous but counterproductive. research" are almost interchangeable. The point here is that in short-term forecasting for 2. Forecasting is also tied very closely to its predictive specific purposes the methodologies for projecting the character. This may be explicitly qualified by those costs and benefits of alternative directions may be rela- who make various kinds of forecasts, whether they tively well advanced and provide valuable inputs to be economic, technological, or social. But the decisionmaking and policy formation. implicit criteria for evaluating forecasts tend to overemphasise prediction by the use of such terms The hazard is that when the same methods are ap- as the "success," "failure," or "level of confidence" plied to longer range social forecasting, they tend to which may be accorded particular forecasts. place the emphasis on similar deterministic means of 3. There are a number of unanswered questions forecasting, i.e., on what will be under some set of regarding the directness of relationship between given conditions rather on what could begiven the forecasting, futures research, planning and policy- appropriate range of human choice and intervention. making. Again, most of these questions would be The use of the term "forecasting" here, even in the nor- directed towards the unexamined assumptions mative sense, may be counterproductive to the human which link these activities together in some direct ends of the enquiry. and linear fashion when, in fact, we do not know My own bias in this regard is that the central func- very much about the relationship at all. tion of futures studies is not to predict what a future or I shall not deal with all of these questions, but the the future will be but to explore various alternative first one is somewhat central to my enquiry. In my futures states which are resultant upon our individual opinion, forecasting isnot identical with futures and collective actions and may be accessible to our research, nor need it be the primary objective of futures choice. research. There are some important differences Another way to gauge the pace of forecasting is to between the two areas of activity. look at two examples of the extreme wings of futures Forecasting tends to assume that there is a given set work which might be represented by de Jouvenel's The of definable causal relationships between events which Art of Conjecture and Kahn and Wiener's The Year may enable one to predict their future statewithin 2000. The former contains little that might be labeled varying degrees of probability. It does not usually as forecasting in the predictive sense; the latter, though extend to questions regarding the structural premises ostensibly predictive, is subtitled "A Framework for 235 24 7 Speculation." Somewhere in the middle ground, in cerned essentially with who was doing what, for whom, work on technological and economic futures, as noted andY to what purposes. One interesting observation .above, forecasting is used as a specific mode of predict- which emerged in relation to field growth over that ing the outcomes of various alternative projections of period was that the actual number of persons engaged quantifiable parameters. fai time in formally defined programs of futures research had not expanded significantly in compariSon The relative "functional" importance of forecasting with the vast increase in the numbers of people now in futures research,would lie with: "involved with the future" in many more different 1. The particular class or method of forecasting that ways. we aretalking abouta considerable variety Our conclusion was that the field had moved from running from directly extrapolative, to Delphi and being a relatively small disciplinary enclave toward cross-impact techniques, to simulation/gaming, being part of a larger social movement. This may'have intuitive projection, etc. an important bearing on the changing emphasis of 2. The -operative sector, technological, economic, forecasting areas. social, or .cultural, as influencing the choice and viability of.forecasting method. For convenience, a summary of the first survey is 3. The range of futures projectionshort, medium, given in Table 1. For example, in the general objectives longai also influencing the choice and validity of and orientation of work the first survey ranked eco- Method. nomic, technological, and social forecasting in that t 4. The reflexive effects of forecasts, in themselves, as a order with technological and economic as appreciably variant of the observer/ observed relationship; higher than social. In the second survey, approxi- where forecasts function as self-fulfilling prophe- mately 2 years later in sampling time, the forecasting cies or as image constructs which influence atti- had shifted as in Table 2. tudes, decisions, and actions in many different ways. Thoughhoth individual and organizational profiles So much for my initial caveats on the role of fore- ranked social "forecasting" high, it should be noted casting in the broader context of futures research. that when this and other categories were regrouped together the balance was slightly different (Table 3). Areas of Emphasis in Forecasting When questioned as to more specific foci of work (see Table 4) the divergence between individual and or- In reviewing the range and subject areas of forecast- ganizational forms becomes somewhat clearer. There ing, it may be useful to emphasize the recent and rapid would apnear to be some evidence to suggest that growth of the field itself. One indicator of this is the though the general objectives may have shifted toward increase in futures conferences and meetings. The more explicitly social and cultural concerns, the actual range is too numerous to list here, but We may forecasting methodologies remain somewhat biased note the growth in size of the "official" world con- toward technological, economic, and other more gresses. There were between 30 and 40 participants at objectively determinable measures (Table 4). the fiest`Oslo meeting in 1967; Kyo+o in 1970 had over 200, and the third congress in Bucharest drew even Returning to our earlier caveat regarding forecast- more. The Rome Special meeting still had over 100 ing and futures research, it would seem that the major people on a partially restricted basis. Even more signif- shift has been from predictive forecasting toward the icantly, the World Future Society 1971 Washington more normative mode of exploring alternative futures Congress drew over 2,000 participants, and the 1975 in both general and specific senses. General Assembly attracted even more attendees. It would seem obvious, however, that we will get a This kind of growth, in itself, should not lead us to blending of both predictive and normative modes and assume that we are now dealing witha large, Well- that these may increase in sophistication as they areap- organized, well-supported field of disciplined enquiry. pliedinareasof technology assessment,social In some senses, it is the reverse. accounting, and other policy-oriented work. The cur- In 1969-1970 and again in 1971 1972, we conducted rent emphasis on "alternatives" as such may simply be surveys of futures research in the United States' and a "buzzword" phenomenon such as "systems," "par- somepilot surveys on the world scale. These were con- ticipatory," etc. 236 24-6 TABLE 1. the ethical and value questions arising out of the SUMMARY OF FIRST PHASE SURVEY 19691970 youth, minorities, and war protestmovements, etc. 1. Objectives of work. Two-thirds reported major economic This change also has a direct effect on the futures And technological focus to their work. Others ranked social, field itself. For example, as the successive social environmental -foci in that order, with concern for the individtial occurring very low in the scale. movements and "activist" -areas, have peaked or burned out, many of their participants move on to 2. Range of forecaliting. Major concentration on short range the next movement or cause. This reflects itself in (mixt decade), medium concentration on next thirty years, about 1% on long range, ie beyond next thirty years. ('Fore. the conference topics, general literature, etc.-and casting' is used here to indicate general range of concern or becomes critical when futures becomes a social interest rather than as prediction per se.) movement in itself. 3. FUnding support. Was fer-kieriely -filated-to length of fore- 2. The accompanying shift in funding and support 'casting - most, for very short term; leztriof long term. patterns.This appeared to play a direct role in Allocation by sectors was approximately t Wollows: `t 'Government (in house and contractual) 50% TABLE 2. corporate (Mainly internal) 30% ORIENTATION OF WORK (GENERAL) Academia: 10% FOundations and other agencies 10% Forecastihg Amami, Planning Individuals Major,support allocated to client defined work in short range . with specifically focused objectives. Social 17.6%Alternative I 15.0% Techno- futures 14.4%Techno- 4. Disciplinary piofile of workers. Dominated by engineering, logical 13.3%Social impacts/ logical 12.0% economics, physici, chemistry and political science. Economic 10.2% technology.12.0% Educational11.3% Cultural 9.8%Value systems10.9%Corporate 8.8% 5. Age profile. Showed concentration between 36 and 45 years, Educational 8.2%Futures meth Urban 8.5% suggesting professionals whose major work had been accom Resources 7.2% odology 10.2%Scientific 7.5% plished in their defined fields before moving into the futures Market 7.0%Sociatnrjor- Political 6.8% - 7.0% Ries research area. Scientific 9.7%Resources 6.8% ,r Ecological 6.3%Policy research8.8%Regional 6.3% 6. Sex. Almost 90% male, with remainder including nonprofes Manpower 3.9%Individual in Ecological 5.5% sional "support" staff. Military 3.3% future 7.5%Architecture/ Population 3.1%Environmental6.4% Design 4.6% 7. Generalized conclusions Other 3.1%Resource, Military 2.8% utilization 4.5%Labor 1.3% a. Apart from few established institutions, most of signifi Family in Other 22% cant work in the field done by individuals-not necessarily future 4.2% tied to their institutional setting. Manpower 3.6% b. Major emphasis and funding allocated to short range, Population 2.9% economic and technological forecasting. Consumer c. Lack of adequately supported work in terms of "whole affairs 2.1% system(s)" and multi-variate approaches to national and Other 2.8% world problems. d. Little systematic research on values and other areas of Organizations sociocultural change. e. Weak linkage of futures research to actual policy planning Social 12.9%Alternative Educational 12.0% process and to action. Economic 11.8% futures 11.9%Social 11.8% Techno- Social impacts/ Corporate 11.1% logical 11.8% technology 10.9%Techno- John McHale, "Typological Survey of Futures Research in Cultural 9.9%Social prior- logical 10.6% the U.S." (II), sponsored by the Center for Studies of Metro- Educational 8.9% ities 10.6%Urban 9.3% politan Problems, National Institute of Mental Health, November Market 7.8%Policy research 10.6%Regional 8.6% 1972. Scientific 7.0%Value systems 9.8%Resources 7.6% Resources 7.0% Environmental9.3%Scientific 7.2% Ecological 5.9%Futures meth- Ecological 5.8% Manpower 5.7% odology 8.5%Political 5.6% Population 5.7%Resources Architecture/ In terms of the overall shift in emphasis some of the Military 3,2% utilization 7.1% Design 3.2% main characteristics affecting thismay be listed as fol- Other 2.8%Individual in Military 2.3% future 5.3%Labor 2.3% lows: Population 4.4%Other 2.6% Manpower 4.1% 1.The general change in social climate inthe 2 year Family in interval due (a) to the rise of the environmental future 3.9% movement with its emphasis on the social and envi- Consumer affairs 2.8% ronmental consequences of technology and(b)to Other 0.8% 237 249 TABLE 3. tability, and affords new outlets for courses, publications, and careers. Percent Percent 4. The "Future of X" syndrome, in which a great deal- of relatively conventional work in various other Social 17.4 Technological 13.3 fields is "futurized" by adding the prefix or by Cu 98 Economic 10.2 ' "Educational 8.2 Market 70- assembling material under the rubric of "X in the Ecological 6:3 Resources 7.2 year 2000" or " ...in the twenty-firstcentury." Population 3.1 Military 3.3 Though associated with fashimability, this is Scientific 7.0 possibly a much more direct response to a larger 44.8 48.0 social needthe search for reassurance in a period ofdiffusesocialanxieties regarding- change. Though we are more concerned with its relationship to the shift in. forecasting emphasis, as a pheno- TABLE 4. SPECIFIC FOCUS OF WORK menon this would a much wider appraisal in a social context which includes renewed-popular interest in astrology, parapsychology, magic, etc. Numbers in- Numbers in Categories category Categories category 5. Change offield personnel.- The change in fields rep- resented in futures research was quite marked between our first and second surveys (see Table 5). Individuals Organizations The influx of social and behavioral scientists, hu- Alternative futures 19 Science and manists, educators, etc. may be due to some of the technology factors listed above and also to the more recent forecasting 8 MethodolOgy 21 Resources 13 growth of interest in the future by specific field Planning 37 Fodo supply workers themselves. For example, close to one third Social change systems 1 of our survey respondents had entered the field less (general) 21 Environmental Institutional charO' 6 quality 2 than 3 years ago. Family 2 Transportation 2 Leisure 2 Public servile Gaps and Weaknesses in Forecasting Education 38 systems 1 Religion 3 Policy research 21 Taking these various shifts in emphasis into account, Health 6 Business 43 Law 2 Economic fore. we might raise several questions regarding the areas in Values/ethics 7 casting 5 Politics 4 Communications/ Individual 1 media 13 National security 1 TABLE 5. ACADEMIC FIELD OF RESPONDENT Military 7 Documentation 3 Second survey First survey Science fiction 2 (period June (period 1969- 1970)(in number of 1971-June 1972) responses) Social/Behev. 28.0%Engineering 36 Finance' 4 determining the organizational orientation to fore- sciences Economics 24 History 4 Physical sciences 13.4%Physics 16 Law 4 casting, e.g., in the first survey, funding levels were Engineering 12.7%Political Statistics 4 in inverse ratio to the length and scale of forecast- Humanities 8.5% science 12 Computer ing. Most long-range, multivariate work was done Education 6.8%Chemistry 11 science 3 Mathematics 6.2%Psychology 11 English 3 by individuals independently of their organiza- Design 4.2%Mathematics 9 Geography 3 tional locus and support structure. Organizational Arts 3.3%Business Medicine 3 work :tended toward highlyspecific short to Life sciences 3.3% administra Humanities 2 Law 2.6% tion 8 Journalism 2 medium `range forecasting. Journalism 2.0%Education 8 Landscape 3. Fashionability .may also play a considerable role Cinema/TV 1.3%Philosophy 7 architecture 2 not only in terms of social climate directly but with Others 7.7%Business 6 Management Social science 6 science 2 the grosirth in visibility of futures in the mass media Architecture 5 Pharmacy 2 and the appearance of futures books on their best International Psychiatry 2 sellers lists. relations 5 Regional Urban planning 2 Academic and educational interest in futures planning 5 Theology 2 grows as a "new field" defines itself, gains in respee- Anthropology4 232u Which forecasts are made or the:range of topics with tions, and institutions down to the small communi- which futures research is more broadly concerned ;In a ty level. The least emphasis and least attention is on cursory reviewof the subject areas developed in our the individual, on the authenticity of individual ex- surveys, of the conference literature, and of the perience as contrasted with the abstract image of extraordinary growth of futures books, newsletters, the individualother than as the overconstrained and journals of various kindsit would seem that the performer of sets of social roles determined by whole gamut of human concern is covered. The list of society. New styles of life as reflecting changes in topics,is certainly very long! Accompanying this, we institutional forms tend to be oriented to their con- _have also the ancillary growth of bibliographies, docu- notations of "deviance" contingent upon the break- 'ffientation centers, clearinghouses, and networks. down of past and present norms. The problem here is one of critical evaluation. It is Simon, in his explication of the "fallacy of socio- not enough to list what is being done. When we look morphism," underlines this particular weakness, behincrthe often grandiose titles to the substance it is, which, in his words, "imputes to the individual in all too many cases, insubstantial, repetitive, and rhe- organism that which is properly a function of social torical. One may assume that the more technologically life, (and) which allOws us to accept uncritically as oriented wing of futures research may look after itself constants, as socio-cultural universals, or 'natural in this regard. -My own concern is with the social and laws' for social life that which may, in fact, repre- Cultural area. sent little more than the outcome of the- socia; historical moment."4 Though we might be gratified' by the renewed emphasis on_sociaL and culturalthemes,their 4. The treatment of new cultural forms is often so- treatment is still characterized by the conventional naive as to be considered a marginal component-- constraints and attitudes to change.brought over from of futures work. Much of it suffers less from a the various parent disciplines. failure of imagination about the future than a lack of substantive knowledge about the present This is expressed most strongly in the "problemi" and the past. The closest approximation in atti- syndrome of much of the workin its preoccupations tude to today's cultural futurist is probably the with the increase of complexity in "the technological latenineteenthcenturyPre-Raphaelite society," in the trends toward the uniformity and ano- Brotherhoodrather than even the Futurism of ,nymity-of "masLsociety," in the breakdown in norms, a Marinetti or Bocceoni in the early 1900's! values, and traditions, etc. These unexamined prem- ises are projected in sets of problem scenariosor Some of the more generalized problems in social and countered by the advocacy of equally dubious and cultural forecasting may be summarized as'follows.. uncritical acceptance of needs for human potential, actualization, the renewal of face-to-face community, the preservation orthe family, etc. Theoretical This is not to say that many of these problems are not real! But there is: There is insufficient rigorous attention to the reex- amination of traditional models and stereotypes. I.Little attempt other than in such problem-oriented Much of our theory of social, economic, cultUral, and terms to spell out the specific social and cultural even political change, where it exists, is still overhung changes which might take place according to indi- with earlier social science reactions to, and misunder- vidual and collective choiceor what the content of - 1 standing of, the disruption of traditional forms and the Various kinds, of individual social and cultural ex- social disorder attendant upon rapid changeand an perience my be in different future ranges and admission of the specific social and other costs which conditions. change entails. 2. While eschewing the more technical approach of the economic, technological, or other forecasters, Lurking behind the labels 01 much discussion are there is little attempt to integrate the substantive various models which lay claim to all sorts of universal- work of such forecasts in a manner which might ity and historical continuitylinked to sets of latent assumptions regarding human nature, needs for collec- inform and enrich the quality of social and cultur- tive security, social health, pathology, etc: al projection. 3. The major emphasis is almost entirely focused on There is still evident in much futures work a rather macrosocial changechanges in society, organiza- diffuse value indictment of modern society which per- 23q2 51 sists even, or perhaps more so, in those studies which This kind of projection of present demands into purport to be concerned with values in the future. future needs may be relatively harmless in individual While it may be necessary to criticize the present on the speculation. When linked to social and economic plan- way to the future, many of our value critiques tend to ning, and the commitment of present resources and offerAcim more than nostalgic forays into the past. That energies to long-range purposes, it requires more vig- ths,more valued elements in human social and cultur- ilant questioning. It is not enough that we free the pres- .al-experience are associated with past periods of ent from the shackles of the past if, in turn, we sacrifice (apparent) stability and permanence may obviously be too much of the present to the supposed exigencies of comforting, even if largely illusionary. the future. One specific example of theoretical weakness, In summation here, we may underline that in almost related to the orientation of past, present, and future, is all areas of forecasting and futures research, we need to the assumption of time itself as an invariant and uni- be more rigorous regarding the implicit and explicit versal constant. It is certainly empirically evident that assumptions upon which we are operating. Our the ranges of experiential time and life space are indeed assumptions pre-select the range of questions which we highly variable and pluralistic amongSt different address and the types of data we use and predetermine societies, even for social groups and individuals. As to a considerable extent the kinds of futures we project. Gilb suggests, For any particular society, also to be explored are the variations, conflicts and similaritiesof the Methodological time and change imageries of men, women, dif- ferent age and vocational groups, social and eco- Even with the _influx of social and behavioral nomic classes, and ethnic and other special scientists into the field, the range of methodological groups. How have these differences helped to skills is still relatively inadequateboth in monitoring structure the institutions of the family, church, the indicators of change with which we are dealing in work, play, politics, economics, government and the present and in the assessment of their import for the the law, andin additionwhat time and change future. This also selects and shapes the kinds, and con- images have these institutions had qua institu- tents, of the forecasts and projections we make. tions?5 There is still a strong tendency to rely upon "canoni- The overdependence on an idealized past and the cal" data which is administratively convenient for, and failure to reconceptualize ongoing changes in the pres- manipulable within, conventional methodologies. We entleadsalso,forexample,tovariousfixed are still not very good at transferring ourquantitative assumptions ahout the roles and centrality of our core data into qualitative contexts and formsin ways that institutionsi.e., the economy, the polity, the military, may be meaningful for the projection ofqualitative etcand to their being held relatively constant both in changes in social and cultural forms. function and centrality for the future. There is, in gun- For example, most of our methods and monitoring eral, an undue reliance on "structural certainties" skills are lacking in the qualitative assessment of sym which are assumed to persist as basic norms in regu- bolic communication in various mediain the vast lating and modifying various changes in society. profusion of visual' images and social metaphors Social and cultural expectations and objectives are through which social and cultural changes maybe per- similarly held constant, or only marginally variable, so ceived, and in whose terms they require projection. that the established interests and preoccupations of the There is a latent hierarchical ranking of methods present are projected, largely unexamined, into future from "soft" to "hard" in terms of rigor, numeracy, and forms. Again, it is empirically evident that expecta- quantifiability. This does not recognize that, in fact, it tions, tastes, desires, and r bjectives, both of societies may require as much sophisticated expertise tomoni- and individuals, are highly variable over time. tor and manipulate the soft indicators ofsocio-cultur- Even if long term predictions were demonstra- al change as to do technological, economic,-and such bly accurate, which they are not, it is now coming forecasts. Unfortunately, those most expert in the lat- to be seen that each generation has its own tastes, ter areas of "hard" analysis may be correspondingly and that the tastes of the next generation are inept and unskilled when confronted with data which is neither certain to be ours nor is it believed that not couched in their traditional forms. Novels,movies, they should be ours.6 television, art, comics, ads, etc. are no less difficult to 240 252 interpret and use than factorial matrices and computer emphasis question. The efflorescence of futures models. The range of data which is admitted to our courses and academic programs has led to a prolifera- wider concern in futures researchis,therefore, tion of texts and papers designed fpr use in such somewhat inhibitedand this in turn leads to a consid- courses and to a situation in which "educational erable poverty of "content" in many of our social and futures" has become a variegated topic area in its own cultural projections. right. 3.The "Future of X" syndrome,referred to earlier, would suggest that we may be at a developmental point Organizational iviie field when it might be useful to convene sets of representatives from the different disciplines to discuss; We have already noted the rapid growth of the field the, future of their disciplineSasa possible focus for and some of the problems associated with this phe- their own research and teaching and as a field contribu- nomena. Other aspects of this do bear upon the range tton to the study of the future. This is already going on, of topics forecasted and the general content of futures to a certain extent, in sociology, anthropology, and work. several Oil areal? 4.Futures as a self - defined field. Wetend to forget that The field is somewhat polarized between the "profes- futures research, futurology, futuristics, etc. is pecul- sionals" and the "activists." There is, on the one hand, iarly self-defined as a field in itself. Recent expansion the drive for professional respectability and rigor via has tended to reinforce that self-definition to an extent more formal organization etc.and, on the other, a which may be hazardous for its own future devel- more vocal concern with widening the base of nonpro- opment. fessional participation in futures work and linking a.lt would be quite misleading if we were to gauge the futures studies more directly and actively with ongoing substantive balance and character of the field solely on societal problems. the basis of the number of entries or studies-listed in The former direction tends to skew the topic empha- our various surveys and directories. Closer acquain- sis toward more highly defined and restricted forecast- tance with the content of such listings and more rigor- ing within strong substantive frameworks of discipli- ous evaluation is also most necessary. nary expertise. The latter widens the range of concerns b.There is also an acute "ahistorical" tendency within to the extent that they mirror the current issues and the field itself which leads to the neglect (or lack of needs of the widest participationthis makes for a knowledge) of earlier work in the area which was not richer set of topics but is certainly somewhat "thin" in labelled appropriately as "futures," e.g., apart from the terms of substance. 'literary utopianists and other theoreticians, one could Indicate a large body of work produced by various leg- Joining both polar aspects is the pressure for more islative committees, independent commissions, and documentation,bibliographical services, academic individual workers which projects and explores future programs, and courses. At times, however, it seems as needs ant. requirements in many areas. if we have more documentation going on than there are c. In the range of presentactivities, itis also evident that useful documents to classify! much more work than we generally allow is already What seems to be rather necessary to reconcile both being done quite. outside of the futures field as cur- wings of the field, and to advance the state of the art rently defined. Some of the more obvious examples generally, are the following: here would be in the field of social indicators, certain areas of national and international planning,critical futures critical 1.The establishment of some function work on communications, the arts, cultural devel- wherein the substantive assessment and critical judg- opment, historical reassessment, etc. ment of work being done could be conducted in an ongoing fashion. To a certain extent this critical eval- the funding and support structurehas been an uative apparatus has been most visible in science important influence in the organization of futures though it also operates powerfully in the arts, i.e., in researchand will obviously continue to be. the function of the individual critic and the general field criticism affo 1 by colleagues, public atten- One interesting point which emerged in our first sur- tion, evaluation, etc. vey was that the bulk of the pioneering work in large- 2.Some clearer definition and discussion of the educa- scale, long-range, and multivariate futures projection tional and public informationaspects of futures was done by individuals and groups who were not in research. Both of these areas also bear upon the field institutionalized programs of futures research. They 241 253 -ti were not primarily sup, orted for this work but "boot- ideas for elaborate proposal writing. This may be quite legged" the time from other activities. In many senses defensible in itself because the overall work is thereby this still holds true. Whether it may hold in the future is advanced. But the problem remains that the more crea- questionable. tive and original workers are pushed successively into more marginal, positions in relation to support, and the As the field gains in fashionability and wider interest substantive field contributions are correspondingly the individual's position becomes more difficult. In diluted. This process is certainly not confined to order to retain access to necessary materials and tools futures research, but the peculiar nature ofeile field and to keep pace with field growth etc., such workers intensifies it considerably. have hid to become more institutionally bound. (Insti- tutions fund institittions,not individuals.') Meanwhile, theiger institutions which failed to support such long-range, large-vale exploration when it was "unfa- Integration of Forecasts shionable" now move into the area with greater re- sources and personnelbut most often stilt lacking the As in other fields, future research' tends to suffer essential insights and vision of the individual. The from an imbalance between analysis and differ- latter gets progressively squeezed out just as the work entiationand synthesis and integration. One reason which he,.or she, pioneered gains wider validation and maybe that the disciplinary training of most persons support! has favored the former rather than the latter. In a field, and a period, however, .when the "cross impact" and What we face here, in a sense, is a kind of institu- "whole system" effects of chinge are critically impor- tional imperialism in which large intellectual conglo- tant, it would seem necessary to redress the balance. merates comes in at a specific point in field evolution to develop the large-scale, well-funded projects, whose It would appear to me, therefore, that a key item on substantive merit and accomplishment usually falls the research agenda for futures research would be the somewhat short of the rhetoric with which they are substantive assessment, interrelated synthesis and in- proposed and reported. This is rather similar, in some tegration of forecasts, and projections as a more senses, to the "Little Science, Big Science" problem. central activity. Of necessity this kind of exercise would require more "hindsight" work on the validity of The institutional funding record in futures research past forecasting as well as...ongoing inputs from the is actually rather dismal but continues to skew the field "futures critical" function described earlier. emphasis considerably. The funding agencies have been particularly characterized by timidity and lack of This returns us in somewhat circular fashion to the foresight. While evincing due concern for "original," beginning of this chapter. It is probably only through "innovative," and "exploratory" work, they then set up the development of such integration on a fairly large elaborate constraining conditions for its support and scale and continuous basis that we could have some conduct. This somewhat is like asking Lewis and Clark kind of ongoing review of the areas in which substan- to draw up a set of state highway maps before they start tive forecasts are being made. To attempt such a com- out! parative review in terms of individual forecasts, in themselves, would be much less rewarding than being This brings in the "second stringer" problem. Those able to gauge their interrelated effectiveness within a who conduct the initial explorations in an area are sel- more holistic context. dom able to lay out very clearly the detailed rationales, objectives, and plans which funding agencies require. Through such a series of linked activities we also When the unsupported work is published, however, it should be able to monitor over time the changing is all too easy for the less innovative individual or insti- emphases, weaknesses, and strengths of the overall tution to pick out the more immediately "fundable" futures research field in itself. 24225 FOOTNOTES I One might even qualify The use of the term futures "research" inProblems, National Institute of Mental Health, June 1970 (I) and this regard. It conveys notions of methodological rigor, objectivity, November 1972 (II)., and exactitude which may not only be misleading but constraining upon a field in which speculation and conjecture play a much larger William Simon, "Reflections on the Relationship between Man role than they do in any other area of so-called research. The less and Society," Rome Conference, September 25r 30,1973. overbloWn term "futures study" might be more appropriate. Corinne Lathrop Gibb,"Time and Change in Twentseth Century Thought," Journal of World History,Vol. IX,-No. 4 (1966), p. 876. 2'For an extended discussion of the latter point, see "Theories of Industrial Society: Reflections on the Recrudescence of Historicism 6 Edward Shils, "The Intellectuals and the Future,"Bulletin of and the Future of Futurology," John H. Goldthorpe, paper for 7th Atomic Scientists(October 1967), p. II. World Congress of Sociology, September 1970. 7 This phenomenon is also evident in other areas, e.g., in the arts museums, conferences, histories, and "documentation" of art are 3 John McHale, "Typological Survey of Futures Research m the much more lavishly funded than the individual artist. The same is U.S." (1 and ;1), sponsored by the Center for Studies of Metropolitan true in theater, literature, and other arts. 243 2 5 5 Chapter 17 An Agenda for Futures Research Olaf Helmer Futures research, as an organized activity, is only a backlash, in that some new doubts have been raised as decade old. It was in the early sixties that the Futuri- to whether futures research is altogether an activity bles group, under Bertrand de Jouvenel, began to carry worth pursuing. out future-directed social and political studies; that Daniel Bell formed the Commission on the Year 2000; Many people forget that a decade is a very short time that Dennis Gabor wroteInventing thelitture; and period in the development of any intellectual move- that the first major technological forecasting study was ment. Not only has there been insufficient time to place carried out at RAND by Ted Gordon and the author. the discipline of futures research on a solid conceptual foundation, but the pursuit of this desideratum True, there were earlier, precursory developments, though well recognized as such by somehas been such as the work of the Prospective group in France led encumbered simply because demands for pragmatic by Gaston Berger and the invention of the Delphi tech- results have had priority over a solidification of the nique, in the early fifties by the author in conjunction foundation and because the rapidly increasing number with' orman Dalkey. Another, more philosophically of practitioners has of necessity included some oriented cdfitfibtitioh %niglit,lie seen ifi-the essay "Oil charlatans and incompetents along with serious the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences," on which researchers. The time has come, therefore, to reflect on the author collaborated with Nicholas Rescher in the what futures research is all about, what genuine prom- late fifties. But these were just signs in the wind, and it ise it offers, what can be done to improve its intellectual was not until the mid-sixties that the effoits particu- basis, and what priorities should be assigned to its larly of the Futuribles and the RAND-sponsored applications. futures groups began to be emulated throughout the world, resulting in what has now grown into a full- Futures research is a branch of operations research. fledged futures movement, with institutes, journals, And like that of traditional operations research, its professional societies, and such governmentally sup- function is to provide decisionmakers with operation- ported offspring as the Educational Policy Rsearch ally meaningful assistance in the form of informalon Centers and the Office of Technology Assessment. and analysis that can facilitate better decisionmaking. Operations research originated in World War II, where This proliferation of futures studies, while gratifying it proved to be of imense help in the conduct of military in some respects, has had some decided drawbacks. operations. Most of its later applications to problems The reason for the explosive adoption around the world of Delphi-type explorations of the future, of of the civilian sector of government and to problems of commerce and industry, while different in subject mat- simulation techniques for long-range planning, and of ter, were similar in purpose. They concerned manage- other future-oriented methods is not so :flitch, I think, ment decisions affecting either the daily operations of the quality of the original, prototype studies but rather c an agency or firm or its relatively short-range planning a recognition of the urgent need for the social sciences activityshort range in the sense that the operating en- to begin to catch up with the physical sciences in their vironment at the time the plans were to be imple- ability to cope with the problems of the real worlda mented could be expected to be essentially the same as need made more urgent by the growing complexity and those at the time the planning decisions were being the accelerated pace of change in our operating envi- ronment. The_widely felt requirement for better long- made. range planning in the areas of social and political insti- The main characteristic that differentiates futures tutions,ofthephysicalenvironment, and of research from standard operations research is that its international relations has caused too many people to objective is to improve decisionmaking in the case of place too great hopes in the benefits to be derived from long-range plans. Here "long range," in contrast to the new discipline of futures research. Its failure to live "short range," clearly means that the operational con- up to these expectations has begun to produce a ditions at the time of implementation are expected to 244 256 differ substantially from those prevailing at the time of often nonoptimal should be no reason to reject the planning. futures research effort. Its aim is to produce the best practically attainable decisions, even if not necessarily We note in passing that me:r. and more of the impor- the theoretically best decisions. Considering theoften tant decisions are moving from the short-range into tht enormous payoff attached to decisions regarding the -long-range category. The reason for this is twofold: long-range future, even a small improvement.in the first, many of our decisions concern increasingly com- quality of such decisions may yield very appreciabie plex situations, where the time horizon is farther in the returns. future, as illustrated by our attempts to solve the energy-crisis or to plan a new city or to develop an Next, it seems to me that the following observatien underdeveloped country; second, as we all know, we ought to be made: A rigorous scientific approach live in an-age of ubiquitous future shock, in which involves three interactive elements: theory construc- changes in our living environment occur with ever tion, empirical data collection, and controlled experi- increasing rapidity, due mostly to technological advan- mentation. I have already pointed out that the model- ces and their societal implications. Together these two building endeavor of operations research, and hence of trends, by mutual reinforcement, have given futures futures research, falls short of the rigor demanded' of research theTremature prominence which we observe scientific theory construction. Not only are its models today. Once we recognize that futures research is comparatively "soft," so are, attimes, its data, as well indeed a- branch of operations research, and specifi- as its experimental procedures. There are, in fact, no Cally that branch concerned with plans which are to be hard data about the future; and the futures analyst has implemented in a changed operating environment, a to rely on soft, judgmental data instead. That is, he number of points become evident.- must use probabilistic pronouncements by experts about the future operating environment asa substitute -Because of the pragmatic nature of futures research, for firm, observational data. And real experimentation its function is primarily predictive rather than explan- often is replaced by pseudo-experimentation, using a atory. By forecasting the future environment and the simulation model in which players, acting the parts of consequences of alternative plans for,coping with that real-world decision-makers, test the implications of al- environment, it attempts to improve the decisionmak- ternative decisions in the model in the hope that the ing process. Often its findings may merely be based on simulation has sufficient verisimilitude to permit a. observed correlations between phenomena er on the transfer of the model results to the real world. intuitive, pretheoretical judgment of experts, falling far short of a causal explanation fo.'le expected con- Reliance on the intuitive judgment of experts thus is sequences of proposed actions. While a fuller under- not just a temporary expedient but a necessary standing of the underlying causes would surely always ingredient of futures research, because they are needed be welcomed, the success of futures research has to bc in all phases of the effort. They are called upon (1) to measured in terms of the quality of the decisions it supply judgmental data about the future, based on makes possible rather than of its explanatory force. their intuitive, though often. theoretically unstruc- tured, insights into real-world phenomena; (2) to con- therefore, Likeoperations- researchgenerally, struct ad hoc models or to judge thesuitability of exist- futures research is prescientific in nature. The urgency ing models; (3) to'apply their expertise as role players of the taskbe it the conduct of military operations in simulation games; and additionally, they are often (the context which gave rise to operations or required (4) to use their imagination and inventiveness the management of the energy crisis or the search for to design the instrumentalities and long-range strate- cures for our sick societyis so great that there is no gies that result in appropriate action programs for time to wait for the construction of neat scientific theo- dealing with the problems of the future. ries whiCh would, by logical derivation, permit the identification of the optimal plan of action to be fol- Despite its relative softness compared to a hard, lowed. Instead, in the tradition of operations research, scientific approach and, in particular, its inevitable the futures researcher constructs ad hoc models as best reliance on expert judgment, futures research aspires he can, well knowing that they may be imperfect and in to be objective. This looks, at first glance, like a contra- need of later correction and improvement as more data diction in terms, since objectivity of a discipline can are obtained and more experience is accumulated. almost be defined as "the intersubjectivity of its find- ings independent of any one person's intuitive judg- No claim is made that such imperfect models pro- ment."' To preserve the claim to objectivity, it is nec- duce perfect foresight. That the resulting decisions are essary for the futures researcher to dissociate himself 245 257 logically from the experts, in the sense of regarding from present such criteria. Second, given a set of crite- himself as an experimenter who uses the experts as ria, there is a question of determining the comparative measuring instruments of reality, whose pronounce- degree to which alternative action programs can be ments about the future world are taken in the same expected to satisfy these criteria. All of these tasks are spirit as, say, the readings on a measuring device are analytical in nature, require cost-effectiveness and sys- taken as an indication of some property of the present tems analysis, and must be clearly distinguished from world. The experts, thus, are viewed as black boxes the normative problems of what ought to be do:t which receive questions as inputs and produce an- about the future. (There is a large faction among swc s as outputs. Different experimenters, using dif- futuresresearchers who wish to emphasize this ferent but comparable sets of such "black boxes," normative aspect of their work. In contradistinction to should be expected to arrive at comparable results. futures analysis, this --gment of futures research, This places a special obligation on the discipline of whichisdevotedto whatissometimes called futures research to devise suitable measures for the "normativeforecasting," might perhapsbest be degree of reliability of these instruments and to seek described as "futures synthesis." To date, this portion ways and means of improving their quality (i.e., of of futures research, which covers.the spectrum from helping the experts to increase the reliability of their abstract utopian writing to belligerent demagogic performance). activism, is poorly organized and badly in need of conceptual systematization.) Another point to be made is that, since futures These, then, are some of the features of futures research is concerned with the planning of human research, as seen by one of its practitioners. It is a activities, it is, of necessity, multidisciplinary. Even if methodological approach for which there is a great, the planning objective itself is unidisciplinary (which is pragmatic need in our society, which is full of promise seldom the case), attention must be given to the techno- and calls for an immense amount of basic research logical,the socioeconomic, the cultural, and the effort in order to bring it to full fruition. This constella- physical environmental circumstances,in consid- tion of urgency, of great potentialities, and of wide- eration of which plans have to be made, as well as to the open opportunities for original research ought to rep- psychology of the decisionmakers. Usually, the more resent an attractive lure for some of our best intellects important a planning decision is, the more complex is to get involved in and for our public and private fund- the area to be surveyed and the more intricately are the ing sources to support. considerations interwoven that different disciplines have to contribute. In planning a transportation sys- Let me now make an attempt to outline an agend, tem or a reform of the educational or the health-care for some of the specific research tasks that lie ahead, as delivery systems or a new city, there is hardly a single suggested by the analysis just presented of the purpose discipline that will not be required to supply special- and present status of futures research. I shall organize ized inputs to the planning process in the form of this agenda under the following headings: assessments by experts of probable future devel- Data Collection opments. Futures analysis, therefore, has to develop Model Construction effective and efficient means of facilitating cross- Experimentation disciplinary cooperation toward common planning Systems Analysis objectives. Substantive Applications: Exploratory Finally, to fulfill its purpose of improving the deci- Substantive Applications: Normative sionmaking process regarding long-range plans, fu- In each of these categories I shall list some of the areas tures research has to address itself explicitly to the which seem to me to be particularly in need of research. criteria problem. There are several aspects to this: first, there is the question of identifying the planning crite- ria, that istechnically speakingthe payoff function Data Collection or functions or the utility vector to bemaximized. This All our knowledge about the future is ultimately involves several extremely difficult subproblems; spe- derived by some form of extrapolation, however sub- cifically, that of exchange ratios in the case of multidi- tle, from the past. The kind of empirical data on which mensional utilities, that of relative weights in the case such extrapolations might be based are no different of a multiplicity of beneficiaries who need to be satis- from the data that provide us with whatever insight fied, and that of changing value systems, which may into our present world we have, and their collection is cause future criteria of optimization to be different the task of individual scientific disciplines, such as psy- 246 n J 0 chology or demography or meteorology. Leaving aside All of these questions call for extensive experimenta- whatever standarddifficultiesthere may bein tion. There is an obvious obstacle to carrying out such amassing such basic empirical information, the analy- experiments, because good experts are too rare a com- sis of the future, as I pointed out before, requires as modity and their time is too precious for them to be inputs another kind of quasi-data in the form of judg- readily available as experimental laboratory subjects. mental estimates about future operating conditions. Some of the indicated experiments have indeed been While these judgments are formed by experts through carried out, notably by Norman Dalkey, but using some implicit process of extrapolation from the past, graduate students as surrogate experts. There remains this process is rarely based on a well-articulated theo- a gnawing doubt whether all of the results obtained in retical procedure but more often is intuitive and this manner carry over to The case of real experts, and pretheoretical in nature. Epistemologically, their func- at least some carefulexperimentation is mandatory to tion is comparable to that of measuring instruments. establish this crucial point. (Parenthetically; the kind This whole area of judgmental data collection is in of spectacular convergence of opinions obtained by considerable need of further exploration, suggesting Dalkey and myself in our first Delphi experiment in the following specific research items: 1953 in connection with a military problem= has rarely been repeated in subsequent applications. My intuition tells me that the technique's success in this regard at the I. Rating and improving the performance of individ- time was due to a fortunate combination of circum- ual experts as forecasters: How can the per- stances, namely, the discriminate use of specialists in formance of an expert be calibrated? How do self- several relevant disciplines and the availability of at and peer-ratings compare with one another and least a crude model structure which facilitated interac- with other, more "objective," rating systems? How tion of the panelists' inputs. Many of the later applica- can an expert's performance be enhanced? What tions and experimental explorations of Delphi have, data, data processing facilities, models, simula- by contrast, been much more simplistic, prohibiting tions, or communication devices would be most the subtle kind of interplay which contributed to the helpful to him? success of that first Delphi study, and a return to a 2. The utilization of groups of experts: If two or more more sophisticated approach may well be worth- experts supply probability distributions over time while.) for the occurrence of some potential future event, what-is the appropriate mode Of combining their individual estimates into a joint probability distri- Model Construction bution? What use can here be made of any available performance calibrations or information about Futures analytical models, as I indicated before, systematic bias of the experts? How can the judg- tend to be more tentative than rigorous scientific mod- ments of experts belonging to different fields of spe- re. Because of their soft, ad hoc character, their cialization best be combined into an interdiscipli- qe_ ity that of soft datadepends greatly on the nary estimate? How do the anonymity and feedback good sense their constructors. The question arises features of Delphi compare with other modes of whether, e case of judgmental -data collection, a using experts, such as polling, face-to-face discus- group effo t be superioito an individual effort in sion, or other conventional conference procedures? selecting or in enting a model. This suggests the fol- 3. Improvements in the Delphi technique: What owing, fourth, research area: degree of anonymity is most helpful to the per- 4.Application of Delphi to model construction: How formance of a Delphi panel? What influence does should a Delphi inquiry be structured if its aim is to the wording of questions have? How should the produce a model for a specificforecasting or entire questioning process be structured? If the sub- decisionmaking purpose? In particular, how can the ject of inquiry is-multidisciplinary and if differ- facility of a remote-conferencing network best be used ential calibrations of the experts with regard to each toward this end? discipline are available, how can the best use be made of this information? How does a hierarchical The construction of models of any kind is not an panel structure compare with a homogeneouv one? easy undertaking when they are intended to cope with a How stable is a panel's judgment over time? What is subject matter within the general domain of the social the optimal panel size? Is a panel of two or three sciences, and hardly any futures analytical topics are top-notch experts preferable to a panel of a dozen devoid of social science aspects. In this context, it reasonably good experts? would be helpful to have a simple, general purpose 247 2 5 model kit available that would permit the construction The original approach to cross-impact, introduced of at least a rudimentary model, no matter what the by Ted Gordon and myself in 1965, dealt with events subject matter. One such kit, however inadequate in only, that is, with occurrences at specific points in time. some respecti, in fact* exists in the form of the cross- In considering potential future developments itis impact approach. Its prescription is very simple: If important, however, to give some attention also to your concern is with the future of Topic X, take a list of trends, that is, to gradual fluctuations over time. In potential future developments whose occurrence or fact, most of the traditional econometric models, and ,nonoccurrence would either make a decisive differ- similarly the system dynamics approach utilized in the ence to the future of X or would be a significant indica- limits-to-growth study, go in justtheopposite tor of X'siuture status. Make probability estimates for direction by examining interrelations between trends the occurrence of these developments. Then look at only and neglecting point events altogether: In-the them in pairs,,and estimate how much the occurrence cross-impact approach, it is conceptually easy (though of each would affect the probability of occurrence of troublesome in detail) to adjoin the consideration of the other. Finally, use a Monte Carlo process to decide trends to that of events. In fact, in the case of a trend, for each ,development whether it does or does not the equivalent of an "event," for cross-impact pur- occur, making prescnbed adjustments inThe probabili- poses,is a deviation of.the trend value from its antici- ties of the others as you go along. The result, in effect, is pated course. Some of the problems arising in-this a niodelingTrocess which produces. scenarios of the context are the following: future, incorporating all important aspects relevant to 7.Trend-enriched cross-impact concept: Since the the phenomena that were intended to be explored. impact of a trend T (on either an event or another There are numerous open problems in connection trend) depends on the amount A Tby which it deviates with this handy-dandy tool for the future-oriented from its anticipated value, should the effect be consid- social scientist, some of which I am about to list. Yet its ered a linear fiinction of A T, orwhat other functional promise seems far from negligible and' a pursuit of form is approriate? Does an impact on a trend cause a improvements in this technique well worth while. Spe- persistent shift in its future course or a gradually cifically, this suggests the following, fifth item of study: declining shift or merely a momentary blip? How does is the cross-impact concept: How can double- one decide which of these, in a particular case, 5.Basic most appropriate form of the impact?,Can thesepa- accounting in a cross-impact matrix be properly rate, independent impacts caused by two or mere de- avoided; that is, if Event A has a direct impact on Event velopments be considered additive? C but also has an indirect impact on it via another 8.Production of cross-impact inputs: What efficient event, B, how can we make sure that this indirect procedures are there for eliciting large numbers of impact is not also reflected in the direct impact of A on entries into a cross-impact matrix from a panel of C, and thus counted twice? How can multidimensional experts? How can this process be expedited with the aspects be handled, where two or more occurrences help of a network of computer terminals? jointly affect the probability of another event? 9.Continuous cross impacts: How can the present dis- Since the cross-impact-approach attempts to deal with crete cross-impact format, where an occurrence in one causal rather than merely correlative effects, the tradi- time period has an effect in the next or some later time tional case distin:tion for two attributes A and B into period, be made continuous so that occurrences can take place at any time and their impacts be registered at A.B, A.B, A.B, A.B any time thereafter? needs to be replaced, in the case of two events, A and B, by A.B., E.A., A.B., Alt, Experimentation Intheabsence of a time machine, true where the first two instances differ in that either the experimentation about the future is a logical impossi- occurrence of A precedes that of B, or vice versa. bility. Data obtained from an experiment always are Hence the following item: data about the past, and statements about the future 6.Causal probabilities: Is there a need for a special can only be derived from them by extrapolation. "causal probability" calculus, or is the traditional, Hence we have to resort to pseudo-experimentation, correlational probability calculus adequate for causal which means the construction of a simulation model cross-impact applications? about the future and experimentation within that 248 2 model, in the hope that results thus obtained carry over of action programs. These, in turn, if they are intended to the real world of the future. There are some obvious to be rational and practical rwher than mere exercises questions in this connection: of the imagination, have to take into account both the resource constraints on the actions and the expected 10. Validity of pseudo- experimentation: How can the payoff in terms of improved conditions at some future validity of results obtained by pseudo-experimentation time. Thus, cost-effectiveness considerations enter into be checked' or measured? By what means can at least the picture and, with them, all the problems of systems the relative validity be enhanced? How can the effec- analysis: tiveness of stimulation gaming as an aid to the forecast- ing performance of an expert be increased? I2.Systems costs: How can nonmonetary social costs Let me turn now specifically to a particular form of be appropriately related to monetary costs so that simulation gaming, namely, cross- impact gaming. Just overall systems costs can be meaningfully estimated? as the basic cross impact approach is a (perhaps some- How can future costs be reliably estimated? What dis- what simplistic) general purpoSe type of modeling, count rate is appropriate, considering present interest cross-impact gaming similarly is a general purpose rates, uncertainties regarding future costs and benefits, mode of simulation. A cross-impact model of the and our diminishing concern over the future as a func- future of Topic:X is turned into a simulation game by tion of the time-horizon? Hence, how should future introducing one or more players into the model and costs be compared to present costs? How should giving them the option of intervening in the normal expenditures in the private sector be compared -with course of developments by interjecting an action pro- public sector expenditures? How should outright gram. The effects of-such actions dre handled in the expenditures be compared -with investments made in model just as those of any other events are in that their the expectation of future repayment? Since future costs impacts on the events and trends represented in the depend on future contingencies, is it.possiblei,o design model are estimated and superimposed on the cross a cost cross-impact model, in which the impacts of impacts already present in the model. Perhaps the most events and trend changes on costs are systematically important application of this idea is to planning situa- analyzed? tions, where a single player, the planner, intervenes in I3.Systems benefits: Given a topic X, for the future of the normal course of events by trying out alternative action programs. But there is no reason why the which plans are to be made, what is an appropriate set of social or other indicators in terms of which a future simulation model cannot also be used by several play- condition of X can be described and different future ers; representing different interests, who can use the conditions can be compared? What are the interest model to study the interactions of their separate inter- groups whose differential desires regarding the future ventions. Some of the questions to be answered in this condition of X must be considered? What rational context are summarized in the following items: methods are there for assigning weights to different II.Cross-impact gaming: How can the realism of interest groups? What are the dimensions of satis- cross-impact gaming be increased? How can it best be faction in terms of which gratification with the future used to aid the forecasting and planning performance condition of X can be measured? How can such multi- of the participating players? Can it be an effective stim- dimensional utilities be combined, and what are their ulant to the invention of new strategies for meeting exchange ratios? What is the appropriate discount rate future contingencies? Can the simulation be used, by forfuturebenefits, again considering increasing having the players observe the intuitive acceptability of uncertainties of, and decreasing concern over, the the results of their actions, to correct and thereby future as the time horizon recedes? In the absence of a improve the probability and cross-impact estimates on single payoff function, how can we measure the overall which the cross-impact model is based? What would be degree to which a given action program can be the legitimacy of such a self-correcting procedure? In expected to comply with a variety of goal criteria? Can the multiplayer case, can effective use be Made of ,a net- the kind of cost cross-impact model mentioned under worx of computer terminals for processing the interac- the preced;ng item (systems costs) be extended to tions of the various players' interventions? include benefit cross impacts, reflecting diminished or enhanced benefits associated with substitutabilities and ccmplementarities among proposed actions? Systems Analysis 14.Representative scenarios: Considering the usually The application of futures research to long-range vast number of possible scenarios of the future, no spe- planning involves the choice of policies and the design cific one of which has a more than negligible chance of 249 261 occurring, is it possible to single out a small, managea- tion? What measures should be taken to reduce all ble.set of "representative" scenarios, in the sense that forms of pollution in the long run to acceptable or even any scenario is sufficiently similar, for planning pur- comfortable levels? What transportation and com: poses, to one of.the representative scenarios, so that a munication networks should be planned for the future? planner can confine himself to planning an action pro- How can governmental inefficiencies be reduced with- gram against the contingencies depicted in the repre- out endangering our democratic institutions? sentative scenarios and still be confident that his pro- 16.Private sector applications: What major research grani.wiltstand up to every possible contingency? How and development efforts should be supported? What Can:the scenario- generation mechanism of the cross- power plants should be built? In what direction should impatraPprdach-fiest be utilized in this context? the automobile industry move? What forms of collabo- ration with the public sector should be sought to facili- tate the building of new cities and of new transporta- Substantive Applications: Exploratory tion networks? What are the:potentialities of the still-exploding communication and computer indus- The research agenda outlined thus far has been con- tries?What willbethepotentialitiesof space cerned with methodology. Turning now to substantive exploration, if and when ids resumed on a full scale? applications, one might cite virtually all the woes of 17.Teeknology assessment: What will be the direct our society as suitable subject areas for futures and, particularly, the indirect effects on our society of research. However, I will confine myself to listing only anticipated developments in the communications area, some of those areas which seem to me both to be of out- such as the general availability of portabletelephones standing importance and to have a specific require- and the ability to dial anyone in the worldat negligible ment for the long-range aspects of futures research,in cost, the ins'-llation of automated libraries and of the sense that the operating environment at the time national data banks, the availability in most homes of when the effects of any reform plans might be felt are two-way television terminals, and the introduction ofa expected to differ substantially from present operating national computer utility?, What will be the societal conditions. Thus, for example, the subject of a reform consequences of possible technology-induced crises, of our criminal justice and our health care delivery sys- such as-a severe energy or raw materials shortage, the tail; while of unquestioned importance, will not be necessity to ban automobiles from the central cities, or listed, because the changes in technology and in our a radioactive or biological warfare mishap that kills value systems, which may indeed affect these societal more than a million people? What would be the-indi- institutions, will do so in only a very minor way, con- rect and unexpected implications of certain social engi- sidering the very major deficiencies which are already neering measures,,such as the introduction of a nega- in evidence. tive income tax, of major penal reforms, or the abandonment of the Congressional seniority system? The listing is broken doWn into four subcategories: What would be the social consequences of certain 15. Public sector applications: How should the educa- major technological breakthroughs, such as genetic tional system at all levels be reformed, utilizing new intervention, fusion power generators, artificial pro- technologies now available or on the horizon, so that tein, or the commercial feasibility of transmuting to those being educated the results will bemeaningful chemical elements into one another? duringthe rest of their lifetimemuch of which may be 18.International applications: What are the global in the first half of the twenty-first century? What prospects regarding energy and raw materials re- sources (the Club-of-Rome problem), and what canbe should.- be done to regulate and to preclude mismanage- m-ent of our anticipated ability to intervenein the done to avert a catastrophic crisis? What reasonable human genetic structure through molecular engineer- international agreements can be made to reduce the ing? In what direction should we concentrate our pollution of the oceans? Similarly, what reasonable efforts to open up new sources of energy? What international agreements can be made to extend economic controls should be applied to cushion our national control to larger areas of the oceans than is society against the effects of a severe crisis in the supply presently the case? What would be the implications of of energy and other resources and, conversely, against adopting a single world currency? Wk. t can be done to the effects of an eventual abundant supply of such re- effect an orderly development of the underdeveloped sources? What previsions should be made through the countries? What is the future of arms control and disar- .planning,of new cities for an increase in the U.S. popu- mament? What would be the implications of a large-_ lation by another 50 million within the next genera- scale joint effort at space exploration? What would be 2540 the long-run effect of the introduction of an interna- 19. Critique of present conditions: What are the dimen- tional social-welfare system? What are the exchange sions of the quality of life (the "satisfaction indices") in ratios, in terms of expected long-term benefits to the terms of which satisfactions and dissatisfactions with United States, of Federal expenditures in areas related the state of the world can be measured? With regard to to foreign affairs, such as defense, espionage, diplo- which of these dimensions are dissatisfactions particu- macy, international development, cultural exchange, larly strong, and among which segments of the public? and joint ventures? What are the great issues of our time, and what are the anticipated issues of the future? What proposals for their resolution have been made, how feasible are these, and what would be their side effects? What social Substantive Applications: Normative inventions are needed to help resolve some of these issues? There are those in the futures movement who con- 20. Criteria for social reform: What planning criteria in sider social reform as the overriding objective of the form of ethical standards, political platforms, futures research. While I thoroughly sympathize with social goals, societal movements, and utopian ideals their motivations, thereis a deplorable and self- have been proposed? How internally consistent and defeatinvrighteousness about their position, which technologically feasible are they? What priorities and seems to imply a resentment against any attempts at an exchange ratios do they imply among the quality-of- objective exploration of what the future has to offer. life components? How would the attainment of such Futures research, in my opinion, can well make a goals differentially affect different segments of the profound contribution to social reform, and indeed it public? may rightly be considered to have an obligation to do 21.Scenarios and utopias: Given a utopian descripti so. But as a research activity it has to remain as objec- and interpreting it as a fictitious future state of the tive as possible, drawing a clear line between analytical world that can be approximated but never fully exploration and political activism. A political activist, attained, what realistic, or at least plausible, scenarios in fact, if he wishes to be constructive rather than are there that could lead constructively from the merely destructive, will derive all the more guidance present state of the world to an increasingly closer and support from futures research, the more objec- approximation of the utopian state? What are the rela- tively such research clarifies the distinction between tive, satisfactions felt by different segments of the real potentialities and merely wishful thinking.' public during the transitional stages presented by such a scenario? What implementation strategies and social Aside from activist reformers there are others whose inventions are required to bring such a scenario about? concern for the future takes a different form. They are In other words, what are itspolitical and socio= the utopians and anti-utopians, who describe fictitious technological prerequisites? future states of,the world that they regard as desirable or detestable, and the inventors, who use their imagi- These, then, are some of the questions to which nation to design specific social innovations intended to futures research might address itself. The list, I am change our society for the better. None of these, either, ,sure, is incomplete, and others may place the emphasis can be considered futures researchers as such,but differently. But I hope that the compendium I have futures research is very relevant to their interests, as it presented is rei resentative in the senseof illustrating is to those of the activist social reformers. Specifically, the large variety of topics which need and deserve to be we can note the following topics which bear upon the probed and with which researchers in this field might nonnative aspects, of exploring the future: profitably concern themselves. FOOTNOTES iOlaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher, "On the Epistemology of the 2 Norman Dalkcy and Olaf Helmer. An Experimental Applica- Inexact Sciences," Management Science. Vol. 6 (1959) tion of the Delphi Method to the t.ise of Experts," Management Science. Vol. 9 (1963). 251 263 Chapter 18 A Statement of Research Needs Wayne I. Boucher The thesis running through most of the chapters in out precedent in futures research (and almost without this -book has been that, while futures research repre- precedent in other, more well-established fields): a sents an approach that can usefully be adopted in the number of persons who had suggested ideas were asked analysis of complex problems of chOide, there are to critique their own proposals and those made by oth- many difficulties yet to be facedand yet to be ers. Specifically, each of the participants in the January, overcomebefore this approach can make its fullest conferences was invited to review.forinally that stibset contribution. The fundamental premise of the book of research recommendations which appeared to be the has been that, while some of.these difficulties can be most significant contenders for serious study and eliminated immediately by greater honesty, for exam- scarce resources. The method used for this review was a ple, ,or by more judicious use of the established poll, administered by questionnaire. This chapter pres- methods of forecasting, there nevertheless remains a ents the results from this survey; in effect, these results core of difficulties that can be minimized or removed define an agendaand quite possibly the basic only through original research. The promise of the agendator future research on futures research.' ..premise is-not that such research, however careful or inspired or well-funded, will make all of these core issues vanish or somehow transform futures research The questionnaire was divided into three parts. In into a science. None of the contributors to this volume the first, the respondents were presented with a form would endorse so pollyannish an opinion. But all giving the five major headingi from an outline, used would agree,,,,I think, that research of one kind or throughout the project to organize the discussion of another provides the only rational means available by research needs in futures research. They were asked to which totestcertaincrucial and presentlyill- assume that these headings were exhaustive, in the- understood beliefs about the who, what, how, when, sense that every research project of any gselibus interest where, and why of forecasting. in efforts to advance the field of futures research could be made _to fall under one of them. They were then What research is required? Each of the preceding requested to provide an estimate of what they would chapters has identified, explicitly or implicitly, a consider to be a reasonable distribution of the total number of candidates. Additionally, several dozen research effort among these categories. That is, given Projects were defined during the discussions of the the needs as they perceived them today, where should chaptersthatwere presentedaspapersatthe the emphases fall? Their answers were to be given by conferences held in January 1974. Still other projects allocating 100 percentage points among the categories. were specified by the respondents in our worldwide survey of research in progress (see the appendix to this The results for the group as a whole are shown in volume), and others emerged as a result of our review Figure I, in which the dots indicate the extremes in of the literature (both the items in the bibliography and individual estimates, the shaded area indicates the several hundred other sources). When these candidates interquartile range of estimates, and the diamond indi- were brought together, the total number of unique cates the average estimate. Opinions obviously difft -- suggestions and recommendations came to well over ed widely, especially on the need to do more work on 300a virtual cornucopia, sufficient to occupy every basic theoretical issues (Category I) and on methods forecaster for the foreseeable future. In short, the pos- (Category II). But the meanestimates, which, of course, sibilities were interminable, overwhelming, and utterly sum to 100, seem to convey a reasonable message: the unmanageable. total program of research should be balanced, no cate- Evaluation of Research Suggestions gory should be ignored entirely, and no category should be given undue emphasis (i.e., more than about To bring order to the list and discover which of the 10-15 percent greater support than that given to any candidates had the highest merit, we took a step with- other category). 252 2 6 4 PERCENTAGE CATEGORY 50 N 79 11 '. RESEARCH ON PHILOSOPHICAL AND CONCEPTUAL ISSUES (e.g.. IN wait/ of dm honk dm prelim, of rodioxivity in formats, the wore of time, else) IL RESEARCH ON ISSUES OF METHODOLOGY p.imetsaiming moth*, attempts ti'Voillip now methods or to mood opiditittions, maropts to develop moshoring spasms. ELI M. RESEARCH 011 ISSUES OF PROFESSIONALISM AND INSTITUTION- ALIZATION (4-1-, training sod mlimotion. eurummicationo, stondoniii;cospomtimr. Moss to hi void from other ollsciplinat. sm.)' .IY: RESEARCH ON SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES the duda if suliiimts to be -Wades*, attain immix:Ow roman for ma and fain in %whim kinds of fommestidg, adormacy of data home, me.) V. RESEARCH ON ISSUES OF IMPLEMEN- TATION AND U SE (e.g.. isms of improving the om of femmes, retrospective stvdios of how forma: have Wm used, methods of improving the samaibility of published studios, etal .wLowest or highost estimate intorquortile range of minims: = Moan group estimate Figure 1. How should the total research effort be structured? So plausible is this idea that it is necessary to add at These percentages are probably a far less reliable guide once that a rather different message emergesif one to the structuring of a research program than the group simply distributes into the appropriate categories all evaluation of the categories themselves because they 300-400 of the research suggestions that have been involve no assumption about the relative importance made and then calculates the percenta,-! of itemsin of the recommendations made in each category. It is, each category. On this basis, the results change asfol- for example, remarkably easy to invent an impressively lows: long string of research candidates in methodology, all of which can actually be modest in scope or trivial in I. Research on Philosophical concept. A single suggestion in the area of, say, theory 20 percent- and Conceptual Issues can readily swamp such a list in overallsignificance. II. Research on Issues of Hence the value of stepping back and attempting to Methodology 40 percent view the categories in context. III. Research on Issues of In the second part of the questionnaire, the re- Professionalism and spondents were presented with 86 research recom- Institutionalization 20 percent mendations drawn from the sources mentioned earlier. Items were presented in fairly random order within the IV. Research on Substantive five categories, and space was provided at the emi of Issues 5 percent each category in case the respondent wished to reintro- V. Research on Issues of duce a project of his that had been omitted in the preli- Implementation and Use 15 percent minary screening or in case he wished to suggest an 253 265 idea that had not been mentioned before. Opposite required by the project, as measured in manyears each item, given or new, were colurrins that would per- worth approximately $50,000 each (including all mit the subjective evaluation of the intrinsic merit of direct and indirect costs). Here the respondents each project against each of fold- distinct criteria: were asked to assume that a "low" cost project was one requiring less than one man-year; a "medium" cost project, one to -two man-years; and a "high" I .Urgencythat is, the extent to which improve- cost project, more than two man-years. ments in the practice and usefulness of futures research depend on an early resolution of the issues A portion of a typical page is shown in Figure 2 to involved. Obviously, some projects may be worth illustrate -the format. A check was tobe placed inthe doing, but they can safely be deferred; these were to columns that came closest to representing the re- be judged to have a "low" urgency. Others must be spondent's own opinion. (The notation "UNC" meant addressed as soon as possible if futures research is "uncertain.") to change significantly; these cou:dbesaid ro have a In the third part of the questionnaire, the respond- "high" urgency. ents were asked to pause for a moment; to reflect on the 2.Payoff, if successfulthat is, the extent to which evaluations they had just made, and then to select from the overall field of futures research will be advanced the entire list of projectsgiven and newly addedthe if the work is performed and the results are satis- three to five items which they considered to be the most factory. A "high" payoff project was defined as one important, "all things considered." Having made these that will have a profound or fundamental effect judgments, the respondents were then requested to throughout futures research;a "low" payoff project select from the three to five items the one project which as one that will produce, for example, a new they considered to be "most interesting and impor- understanding of an issue or perhaps a new capabil- tant." ity, but the effect will not be pervasive in futures research. Obviously, "low" payoff need not mean On the following pages we present the results for that the project is unimportant. each of the original 86 projects (which are given in the 3.Tractabilitythat is, the extent to which the pro- same order as they appeared in the questionnaire). The ject lends itself to research, given current awareness numbers in the columns show the percentage distribu- of the issues involved, current techniques, current tion of the vote under each criterion. Following the data resources, and so on. The respondents were "given" items in the five categories are projects shown asked to note that tractability is not a function of in italics; these are the newly suggested research complexity; evenhighly complex projects can have candidates. The evaluation given by the person who "high" tractability if, say, enough experience on proposed them is shown by means of "X's" in the similar problems has been gained. columns. 4.Cost that is,the level of professional effort An analysis of these results follows the tabulation. I. CONCEPTUAL AND PHILOSOPHICAL PAYOFF, IF TRACTABILI1Y COST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT HIMEDLOUNC HI MEDLO UNCHIMEDLOUNC HI MED UNC 1. Evaluate the adequacy of current theories of social change. 2. Conduct rigorous philosophical examination of the relationship between value systems and tedmology. 3. Analyze how values have impacted on socio-cultural changes in the past. (A project like HINDSIGHT or TRACES. Figure 2. Sample of form used to evaluate research projects. u CATEGORY I - PHILOSOPHICAL & CONCEPTUAL ISSUES PAYOFF, IF URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST SUCCESSFUL 3- - CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT HI MED LOUNC H1 MED LOIUNC HI MED NO-UNC -HI MEDLO UNC -1:01 Evaluate die adequacy of current theories of social change..57 .05 .33 .05 .62 .19 .14).05 .05 .38 .48 .10 .29 .48 .14 ;.10 1.02 Conduct a rigorous philosophical examination of the rela- 9 .33 .33 .05 .43 .24 .24 .10 .05 .65 .30 0 .33 .52 .10 .05 tionship between value systems and technology. 1.03 Analyze how glues have impacted on sociocultural .10 .48 .38 .05 . . .19 .05 .11 .58 . .05 .24 .48 .24 .05 changes in the past. IA project ;Ike HINDSIGHT or TRACES.) 1.04 Analyze the role of values in shaping the future de- .11 .37 .42 .11 .16 .42 .26 .16 0 .33 .50 .17 .16 .37 .21 .26 velopment of values. , 1.05 Analyze the impact of different ideologies on fore- .14 .43 .33 .10 .24 .57 .14 .05 .15 .50 .35 .15 .50 '.30 .05 .. casting. 1.06 Analyze the limits of policy control; attempt to clarify .38 .33 .24 .05 . 2-: 3 ,3 .05 0 .15 .75 .10 .62 .24 .05 .10 M what portion of the future is within man's control and to to what portion is not. ..- 1.07 Devise new or better means for measuring the possible .38 .33 .24 .05 f. .19 .14 .10 0 .25 .55 .20 .48 .24 .19 .10 significance of future problems. 1.08 Analyze the extent to which philosophical results in .10 .20 .60 .10 0 .40 .40 .20 0 .16 .68 .16 .15 .25 .45 .15 the study of ethics can contribute to the selection of social priorities. 1.09 Investigate the role played by societal images in social .19 .33 .38 .10 .29 .38 .24 .10 .05 .48 .39 .10 .14 .43 .19 .24 change processes. - 1.10 Investigate whether various FR approaches can be .14 0 .71 .14 .29 .24 .38 .10 .05 .29 .62 .05 .33 .29 ..9 .19 integrated into a single paradigm. 1.11 Analyze the possibility of developing a language .14 .38 .43 .05 .33 .43 .14 .10 .05 .43 .48 .05 .43 .33 .05 .19 and framework for characterizing social change processes (including determinative, formative, and randomaspects, as well as valties, goals, and indices of social performance). 0 V.12 Analyze the primary goals of FR. .19 .19 .57 .05 .14 .33 .43 .10 .24 .43 .29 .05 .05 .38 .43 .14 1.13 Analyze how future events are discounted (as dis- .29 .43 .19 .10 .48 .33 .05 .14 .29 .52 .10 .10 .33 .33 .14 .19 cussed in the chapter by Linstone). r. 238 dr. CATEGORY,I PHILOSOPHICAL & CONCEPTUAL ISSUES (cont.) - PAYOFF, IF . URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT . _ - 4_ HI MED LOUNC HI MED 1.0UNC HI MED 1.0UNC_HI MED,1.0 UNC _ . 1.14- Analyze the question of how the validity of results ob- .38 .38 .19 .05 .71 .14 .05 .10 .14 .38 .43 .05 .52 .38 0 .10 tamed by pseudo -experimentation (construction of a simulation model about the future and experimentation - _ within that model) can be checked or measured.r,,,_, 1.15 Analyze tiie "internal" criteria oLcredibility (i.e., what .14 .52 .24 .10 .24 .52 .14 .10 .14,.33 .38 .14 .19 .48 .19 .14 properties of the forecast - whether probabilistic Or deterministic - help by themselves to ensure credibility). .. 1.16 Analyze a representative sample of cases to clarify as-._ .14 .52 .24 .10 .24 .57 .05 .14 .29 .57 .05 :10 .14 .43 29 .14 sumptions and conclusions regarding "self-fulfilling" and "self-defeating" forecasts. , 1.17 Investigate common unconscious assumptions about X the future using hypnotic 'progression" to "place , .. t- panelists in the "future" and, e.g., have them read a newipiper 25 years from now. 1.18-Use hypnosis, etc., to convince volunteers of some Future inevitability (e.g., the death of capitalism). See what effect this has on their life decisions (e.g., by hypnotic interrogation). 1.19 Reexamine the fundamentals of probability theory as they apply to forecasting unique events. 1.20 Analyze policy issues and alternative futures, be- ginning with a thorough analysis of goals and values and their possible evolution. 1.21 ,Establish uniform format for documenting and X X X X treporting._.,i 1.22 Establish guidelines for selecting the most suitable methodology for given classes of problems. 1.23 Analyze the value paradox (policy effectiveness X will be judged on the basis of future value determined in part by the policy and by other factors) and value dynamics in general. 269 1,24 Explore means to effect time distortion (thereby X X X X extending individuals' planning horizon). CATEGORY II - ISSUES OF METHODOLOGY PAYOFF, IF URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT -' HI MED LO`UNC HI MED LOIUNC HI1MEDLOIUNCHI,MEDLO UNC 2.01 Analyze the factors which brought about the acceptance 0 .19 .76 .05 .05 .24 .67 .05 .25 .65 .05 .05 .14 .52 .29 .05 and use of current methods of futures research. 2.02 Identify the underlying similarities and differences, if .10 .48 - .38 .05 .14 .57 .24 .05 .52 .38 .05 .05 .19 .48 .29 .05 any, among the principal data-gathering, forecasting, and synthesig.ng techniques (e.g., cressimpact analysis, trend extrapolation, scenario building, gaming/ simulation). 2.03 Devise better ways of incorporating societal images im .33 .33 .29 .05 .38 .43 .14 .05 0 .43 .52 .05 .38 .57 0 .05 pcntant to social change processes into FR. 2.04 Design and conduct a critical experiment to test the .14 .38 .38 .10 .33 .38 .19 .10 .05 .43 .43 .10 .43 .43 0 .14 validity of the "systems approach" in forecasting. _ 2.05 Develop guidelines for the,selection and use of social .33 .43 .19 .05 .57 .29 .10 .05 .05 .52 .38 .05 .48 .29 .19' .05 indicators, so as to avoid fuzzy conceptualization, faulty assumptions, etc. CT 2.06 Develop a means of using business and consumer expec- .05 .62 .29 .05 .29 .57 .10 .05 .29 .43 .19 .10 .33 .48 .10 .10 tation survey data more effectively in combination with forecasting techniques. 2.07 Devise or improve methods for forecasting the need for .62 .19 .14 .05 .76 .10 ..10 .05 .10 .29 .52 .10 .38 .48 .05 .10 forecasts (i.e., for forecasting "the next crisis"). 2.08 Develop ciiteria and methods of forecast evaluation. .52 .29 .14 .05 .65 .25 .05 .05 .25 .40 .30 .05 .26 .53 .16 .05 2.09 Establish a system for periodically collecting and .35 .25 .35 .05 .35 .50 .10 .05 .40 .35 .20 .05 .30 .30 .30 .10 analyzing past forecasts by each of a number of pro- feisional forecasters, with a view toward discovering not who was wrong and why, but who was more often right and why. 2.10 Establish a system for periodically collecting and analyz .33 .48 .14- .05 .76 .14 .cs .05 .40 .40 .15 .05 .24 .71 0 .05 ing important occurrences that were not forecasted, with a view toward discovering what was missed and why. 2.11 Analyze the extent to which people can give objective .24 .29 .33 .14 .33 .38 .14 .14 .10 .24 .52 .14 .33 .33 .19 .14 answers to questions about'their valuer or future behavior. 2.12 Devise a means of identifying discontinuities in trend- .33 .33 .29 .05 .57 .24 .14 .05 0 .10 .86 .05 .52 .38 0 .10 tpiwith sufficient accuracy and sufficient leadtime 2o permit action to be taken. 7 OakaciRy,ii=-IssUES OF METHODOLOGY (cont.) PAYOFF, IF URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST SUCCESSF L -- -- CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT HI MED LOUNC HI MED LOUNC HI MED LOUNCHI MED1.0 UNC 2.13 Analyze the value and accuracy of unconventional .05 .24 .67 .05 .43 .24 .29 .05 .05 .24 .67 .05 .38 .33,_ :19 .10 _, ,methods of forecasting (e.g., precognition, I Ching, etc.). 2.14 Experimentally assess the relative advantages of different .05 .43 .48 .05 .30 .45 .20 .05 .40 .40 .15 .05 .30 .55 .10 .05 methods of eliciting forecasts from a group (e.g., ques- tionnaires, interviews, cc,- nuter terminals, face-to-face discussion, etc.). 2.15 Experimentally assess how well the same methods work .24 .52 .14 .10 .24 £2 .05 .10 .29 .52 .05 .14 .33 .48 0 .19 'in different kinds of applications. 2.16 Experimentally assess how well different forecasting .24 £2 .05 .10 .43 .48 0 .10 .33 .57 0 .10 .29 .57 0 .14 methods work in the same application. . 2.17 Experimentally determine the extent to which the same .24 .57 .14 .05 .48 .48 0 .05 .48 .43 .05 .05 .33 .38 .24 .05 methods produce the same results when used by dif- ferent forecasters. 2.18 Experimentally determine the extent to which particular .19 .62 .14 .05 .43 .48 .05 .05 .24 .38 .10 .38 .48 .05 .10 "systematic" methods of forecasting are demonstrably, better than "nonsystematic" methods. 2.19 Devise or improve means of obtaining good estimates .05 .38 .48 .10 .29 .33 .29 .10 0 .48 .38 .14 .24 .48 .10 .19 or forecasts from persons who fear that the results may hurt them. , 2.20 Evaluate how self- and peer-ratings of forecasters'com- 0 .33 .57 .10 .10 .38 .43 .10 .29 .38 .24 .10 .10 .57 .24 .10 pare with one another and with other, more "objective" rating systems. 2.21 Develop better means of identifying nonmonetary social .52 .33 .10 .05 .67 .19 .10 .05 0 .48 .48 .05 .62 .33 0 .05 costs and relating them to monetary costs so that overall systems costs can be estimated. 2.22 Develop new or better methods for assigning weights .14 .48 .29 .10 .33 .29 .29 .10 0 .38 .52 .10 .48 .33 .05 .14 to interest groups whose desires regarding a future con dition differ. 2.23 Develop means for combining multidimensional utilities, .29 .48 .10 .14 .43 .33 .10 .14 .05 .19 .57 .19 .38 .29 .14 .19 such as measures of satisfaction or gratification. 2.24 Develop, for use where there is no single payoff function, .33 . .24 .14 .43 .24 .24 .10 .05 .24 .57 .14 .40 .30 .10 .20 a means for measuring the overall degree to which a given action program meets a variety of goal criteria. ..,., - , -PAYOFF, IF . URGENCY TRACTABILITY suCCESS FUL COST CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT - _ . _ .. ,...- HI !.1ED LOUNC HI.MED1LOIUICleHIIMEDFLOIUNC- . HI MEDLO UNC 2.25-Undertake a project to resolve major.outstanding prob- .19 .57 .19 .05 .33 .43 .14 .10 .19 .43_.33 ... .45 .30 :.10. .15 tams beiited with. , crosi-impact analysis and related techniqueCsuch as trend-impact analyses (e.g., the re- 3 striction to event pairs, the meaning of "probability" in these applicatkins, the handling of cumulative im- paets, the labor of completing a large matrix, etc.). .., 2.26 Undertake a project to resolve major outstanding prob- .14 .48 .33 .05 .29 .52 .14 .05 .24 .43 .29 .05 .35 .45 .10 .1;) -lents associated with Delphi or Delphi4ike techniques, such as SPRITE (e.g., role of anonymity, number of rounds, panel size and composition, wording or ques- tions, study flow, etc.). 2.27 Develop better means for combining the judgments of .30 .55 .10 .05 .45 .50 0 .05 - .10 .50 .35 .05 .35 .50 .10 .05 experts from different fields into an interdisciplinary estimate. 2.28 Given that one cannot define the complete sequence .26 .26 .26 .21 .32 .26 .21 .21 .05 .16 .68 .11 .33 .39 0 .28 of events between the present and a forecasted state of affairs, develop methods for telling if any particular intermediary event is a deviation in the overall sequence. 2.29 Develop new or better methods for identifying value .19 .48 .24 .10 .48 .29 .10 .14 0 .38 .43 .19 .47 .37 0 .16 tradeoffs so as to predict likely support or opposition _ among groups, and tailor satisfactory policies. ,,. 2.30 Develop means for distinguishing among events which .20 .25 .35 .20 .20 .45 .10 .25 .05 .30 .35 .30 .10 .40 .15 .35 are verbally similar but can be perceived by the policy- . maker as having highly different value structures. 2.31 Test forecasting methodologies to determine how pre- .33 .29 .29.. .10 .38 .38 .19 .10 .24 .43 .19 .14 .35 .35 .15 .15 cision varies as a function of time horizon, uncertainty of data, etc. 2.32 Devise experiments to test and extelid the degree of .24 .57 .14 .05 .29 .62 .05 .05 .05 .43 .43 .10 .52 .38 0 .10 inherent credibility of particular forecasting methods. 2.33 Develop new approaches to condition the individual .19 .14 .57 .10 .29 .29 .33 .10 .05 .38 .52 .05 .55 .35 0 .10 to a longer time horizon (e.g., through altered states of consciousness methods, "mind games," etc.). 2.34 Develop new or better means for evaluating, discriminat- .05 .35 .35 .25 .10 .40 .25 .25 .10 .30 .25 .35 .20 .50 0 .30 ing, and weighting data points to bias trends toward performance levels most indicative of the true state-of- the-art. ,CATEGORY,Il = ISSUES OF METHODOLOGY (cont.) PAYOFF, IF URGENCY TRACTABILITY, COST S=CESS.FUL % CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT . . _ - . , Ht MED LO H; MED LO UNC HI MEO LOUNCHt MEDLO UNC .2.35.0evelop better methods for forecasting the quantitative .38 .48 .10 .05 .52 .33. .10 .05 .05 .60 .25 .10 .55 .35 0 ,10 cross-impact effects of technological progress and eco- nomic development. 236 investigate effects on forecast:, of the future of correct- X iiig Pelt trend lines to take into account unprecedented events in the past. . . * 237 Generalize the distinction between periodic and aperiodic X X. trend extrapolation to cover a broader range of function classes (e-9., 01001100011100001111. . .1. 2.38 Check the probabilities assigned forecasted events by de- X X X termining the actual frequency ratios that emerge when the events do or do not occur. 239 Study the psychology of probability assessment - what makes people assign particular probability cstimatec so as to be able to control or correct for extraneous factors influencing such judgments 240 Try functionselecting forecasting methods. X X X 241 Develop polynomial curvefitting techniques that mini- X X X X mize the number of components without giving prefer- r- . e-ces to low-lagree terms. 242 Generalize forecasting algorithms so that .:ny ret of past X or future data points with any set of weights may be used 243 Develop forecasting techniques that distinguish un- X X certainty due to predictor unreliability and uncertainty ...... 1 due to weakness of the relation between data to be pre- dicted and predictor data. 244 Develop techniques for discovering isomorphisms amony X X X X relations between different sets of variables, so that theo- retical hypothetical constructs may be suggested. 245 Develop criteria for deciding which kind of mathematical X X X X forecasting technique should be tried e.g., Monte Carlo vs. closed-form, or Bayesian vs. nonBayesian. CATEGORY II ISSUES OF METHODOLOGY (cont.) PAYOFF, IF URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT HIIMED LOUNC HI MED LOIUNC HI MED LOIUNC I.,I MEDLO UNC 246 Exploit information theory and analysis of variance de- X X X X composition of noise on environment in developing matrix for decomposing multiple impace. 247 Develop a psychometric scaling system for combining X X X X cross-impact judgmentse.g., Edwards scaling method, or Methoil of Triads. . . - 248 Investigate the social psychology of Delphi judgment X X X change. what siatement. influence judgments, how? Start on theory of Delphi convergence forecasting. - 249 Develop utility-maximizing, rather than accuracy- X X X X maximizing, forecasting. 250 Develop decisionoriented rather than forecast- X X X X oriented forecasting. 251 Develop self-modifying forecasting procedure& X X X X 252 Develop recursive forecasting procedures. X X X X 79 2'e :CATEGORY --PROFESSIONAL & INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES PAYOFF, IF. . URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST CANDIDATE RE5EARCH PROJECT SUCCESSFUL HI MED.'LOUNC HI MED-LOUNC HI MED'L0,-UNCHI -MEDLo UNC - 3.01-Establish an annual census of technologict al forecartini, 0 .29 ,67 .05 .05 .38 .52 .05 .76 .14 .05 .05 .20 .55 .20 .05 practioners and of expenriitures for forecaiting. 3.02 Develop ticliniques to enable entire community to .24 .29 .43 .05 :38 .33 .19 .10 -14 .29 .48 .10 .67 .29 .05 participate in futures studies. ., . 3.03-Identify, through retrospective studies, factors (e.g., .05 .33 .52 .10 .14`A3 .33 .10 .10 .45 .35 .10 .25 .60 .10 .05 composition, size, and age) that affect group creativity _ and productivity in FR. 3.04 Assess the influence of funding structure (profit or non- .05 .24 .62 .10 .14 .48 .29 .10 .25 .35 .30 .10 .20 .55 .20 .05 profit) on the objectives and pertormance of futures organizations. 3.05 Devise means of measuring the "rate of return"- i.e., .19 .33 .43 .05 .43 .43 .10 .05 .10 .30 .55 .05 .40 .40 .05 .15 the cost/benefit relationship - for FR. 3.06 Analyze the extent to which FR can draw upon the ex- .10 .52 .33 .05 .24 .62 .10 .05 .10 .70 .15 .05 .45 .45 .05 .05 a) perience, data, and methods of other disciplines. (Per- haps one such study per discipline.) 3.07 Evaluate the possibilities of establishing an American 0 .1C .71 .10 .19 .33 .38 .10 .65 .25 .05 .05-'.05 .25 .65 .05 Society for Futures Research. - , 3.08 Analyze the effectiveness of existing and possible .29 .43 .24 .05 .43 .43 .10 .05 .10 .48 .33 .10 .15-,..55 .15 .15 mechanisms. both formal and informal, for quality control in FR. 3.09 Formulate a list of what appear to be the standards of .14 .43 .33 .10 .24 .38 .29 .10 .29 .33 .24 .14 .10 .30 .45 .15 professionalism in FR and assess their meaning, their -J--worth, the extent to which they are shared, etc. 3.10 Design a code of ethics for professionals in FR. .24 .29 .38 .10 .33 .24 .33 .10 .24 .33 .29 .14 .10 .15 .65 .10 3.11 Devise or improve means of obtaining international par- .14 .67 .14 .05 .38 .52 0 .10 .29 .43 .24 .05 .48r .43 .05 .05 ticipation in studies that have a crossnational or global significance. 3.12 Experimentally assess the ;:ilt:e of present academic .10 .33 .52 .05 .10 .43 .43 .05 .19 .52 .24 .05 .24 .57 .14 .05 courses in FR. 3.13 Define what should be included in a four-year program .05 .38 .52 .05 .10IA3 .43 .05 .24 .43 .29 .05 .14 .24 .482a2 leading to a Bachelor of Science Degr,; in Technological Forecasting. 1 -CATEGORY III - PROFESSIONAL & INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES (cont.) PAYOFF, IF URGENCY TRACTABILITY COST SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT HI MED LOUNC HI MED LOUNC HI MED LOUNCHI MEDLO UNC 3.14 -Assess or invent alternative ways of helping present futures .24 .38 .33 .05 .43 .43 .10 .05 .14 .33 .48 .05 .35 .25 .25 .15 researchers to become better historians, to interact more with professionals in other fields, to broaden their under- ..- standing of what it is they are doing, etc. 3.15 Devise or improve methods of keePir.g forecasters better .19 .5/ .19 .05 .24 .57 .14 .05 .48 .43 .05 .05 .24 .62 .10 .05 informed of FR work in prOgress. 3.16 Devise or improve metho:Ltdrbetter fr.anagi,,g and dis- 1 .19 .43 .29 .10 .2457--.14.05'.57 .29 .10 .05 .29 .48 .14 .10 seminating the literature of FR;both domestically and internationally. 3.17 Analyze the possibility of establishing a worldwide .14 .38 .43 .05 .43 .33 .14 .10 .24 .43 .24 .10 £2 .24 .05 .10 futures communications network: multimedia, avail- able to all groups interested in the study of problems of the future on a continuous basis. 3.18 Devise or improve means of disseminating the results of .29 .48 .19 .05 .38 .43 .10 .10 .24 .48 .19 .10 .43 .43 .05 .10 FR to the public. 3.19 Establish a government financed Information center available to all and haring up-to-date data on futures research as well as making government date* available. 3.20 Design means toCOIT%os.fikate complexity (e.g., holistic commt.nkationsi to the public. ... 1 CATEGORY IV= SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES PAYOFF, IF - - 1,--- URGENCY TRACTABILITY- COST CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT SUCCESSFUL HI MEDCIUNC HI MED LOUNC HI MED-LOUNCHI- MEDLO UNC- .. 4.01 Develop one or More critical Kroening mechanisms to .19 .33 .38 .10 .33 .38 .19 .10 .10 .48 .33 ..10 .43.29 .10 .14 help the forecaster select among alternative publications, data and data banks, data-processing facilities, models, simulations, Communications devices, etc. I 4.02 Evaluate the:possibility of establishing a center to moni- .19 .33 .38 .10 .24 .48 .19 .10 .19 .29 .38 .14 A3 .43 0 .14 tar actual social experiments embodying an "alternxtive futuri."_ . 4.113 Develop a system for making international comparisons 0 .55 .40 .05 .15 .65 .15 .05 .32 .42 .21 .05 .53 .32 .05 -.11 of experience with different types of iorecasting. . 4.04 Conduct periodic surveys to determine what subjects are .05 .40 .45 .10 .10 .65 .20 .05 .50 .30 .05 .. .10 .50 .20 .10 being investigated in FR, how the pattern is changing over time, and why. p 4.05 Conduct periodic surveys to deLlmine how attitudes of .19 .43 .33 .05 .24 .43 .19 .14 .60 .25 .10 -.05 .43 .39 .05 .14 people toward the future are changing. 4.06 Forecast the future of FR. 4.07 Research forecasting methods used in the past or in X X I X K other cultures (e.g., the classical Delphi oracle). 4.08 Investigate forecasting applications possibilities of super- X i X X intelligt. It con;puters. 4.09 Set up okanization that tallies (records) statement of in- tended effect of forecasts, so that a box score can be gotten for-forecasters and forecasting methods with respect to whether they accomplish what they are supposed to accomplish (e.g., a dystopic forecast - is may be expected to promote action to make it wrong). 4.10 Set up a program to rate indivieual judges for accuracy, so as to weight their judgments when combiring as in panel methods, 4.11 Set up "futureland" preferences where forecasted X scenarios are actually simulated live in real time - for recreation, education, enlightenment, and catharsis. 4.12 Investigate models of the future inside the heads of poli- X ticians, top executives, etc., and relate their models to their policies. -r.,,,,- 111-.25III 111111 I.4 I.6 MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART taworot loiPEAu (,s.1At3i)ARD, 11,,S A iiiistANTIVEitstiES iiont.); .. ., _ . .. . _,. ..._.,.., ....- , _ .,. --;:.- - - , URGENCY TRACTABILITY -- .., tour- CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT SUCCESSFUL '-' ------: . . . ;NV, .MED,-..- LC UNC' /$1 .Op) ---I-0 UNCHr :MEDf --&LO,.. -UNC HI !',',MED_ ..10,-' 10Nb; ,!",...------: -..,y, -; : .i.e..;: ; ; . 4.13 : Ovalcpiäd.r4ik.iysiw, finreniethinelli, ici periodit. k, : , . ; ,,,k,--.: -:::-Iiiiii:-/iieirtify ;riiiii.mini44iiipni*ii,dciiioni ' needed foipieeireitioti-enslinisiOyeinait of einshoinan . ., . , 4;14:Viiiiiiitii Eder:0 i f y neer dolkk kienCenerediani' i inionsora-- . jc . -;X -:- -,.';-X long ihtk need to consider values_ and, to be Sensitive to the hawk. 1 : _ - . -,10:f5 create an infomseticin systeinandd7reetiny- for future- . . ,. . ,..._ _ X- '.X.-- X, 21(' . _ - , , .reiesiCh: , . . , . .-...: r: ' , . ., , ..- . _ . . . . . , _ . . . . . . '!.. . . . ' . . - ,. . : ...... i . .,.. , .., , 7 T` ', _ . .. ' . .. .,° . . .; . ', .- ' // . i . . - I* 1 '''' i *; ' 77 ' ...... ' , 1 , _ . _ , , , ...... 7 ' ".. 7 7 ' =;,_ -, : 7,: 7 : . . . - : . - 7---","; t; ," , . . . . ., , . .; t '.. . . , . -' . . . , . , = . ':f, ' . . . , _, ,. ,; '. . . .7 . , , .. , . , , _ . . 186...... _ . oFikiLEPidierAtiON aUSE ,uid4NO.' PAY OF Fi IF DAhDIDATE'OESEARCH PROJECT SUCCESSFUL". -/AB!LitY , _ .' MED LO;< ^Hi'Op , UNC it, k . .. id iib plo MED ''L0,;- NO..._:" '.:,1 ,op meene'of Presenting forecasis.fwhether pickabil=. . .14 .10 A3 . . . : ; .14 iatleoi."clitirrninistiCY'IO er*re their maximum credibility. foleiiiii us r, ilViijoili if ifii-iiiiiiii fOriCisted differ irons '..tflOie within his Sorperierteei. , 42,,,mily#, hiii.i,and with what effect theNalUe'itrucitiria of.' . . 0 45" . ,. , ,. . ,iiigieiripitkiri iiiiii their constituencies affict the foie.- _ , caster's search for a OOmploiii range aieisivaritluitires-, . !?- #tiOY..i' -,Diiisi neerorbetter methdds for communicating fare- A 0 .10 .55 AO ,10 ,oistsio,the polityinaiteeig that iiiiiiideriPincis the value implications of:different possible events (i:e.-, howcan .background differences hetWien the forecaster triO'User ';1 minimized?): . -544,,Aniliie.-theitictora influendihg credibility of researchout . ,33 .3 : . .15 . :52-' .10. :_piatiiaisrfunetion of personal and local "cultural" - i. .-CharicieyiitiCa.. '5.05 - Analyze or eatelogise different types of. organizational 05 A5' AO .10 20 .35 .36.15 . 20 . . ,20 .structures tres te ietifyitoWdn, forecasts. can be,structired to Match the Structure'bfAhe,orgenilation which must -coinprehenci and vilizethem. .06 Analiii the role of advocacy and its impact on organi. . 5 ,.2.5 . ,40 40 20.5 ,45 .1 ititiOnal effictiveneei. 5.07Anelyze how groupitidarnents in communicating and .11 A7 :32;.11. .21 .37 .32 .114 . 4 .11 .16^ .16 , `integrating results, influence and bridge organizational 68- boundaries . :.- .08 Analyze the role of ftinires 'research outputs in prOdue- ,11 ,53 .32 45 . . - :-.05x:63..:26 .65 -22 _ A7 . -ing grOup or ind:vidual perceptual shifts. _ _ ..., . ,.,.. 5.09,-Ailess tir(pOi4loicigical-behavioral imPabl,'Iiath Short- . .57 .10 20 . 20 :10,: . 45 .35 Ao A) _and long -term; on part.cipants in giouplorecalting ...... !*oi, ... aCtiiities (e.g., syNcimiSyneiica,Delpiti, etc.). -.510 Analyze hoW and with what effect thesame forecasts . .10 .7 0'_:15 .(oi"forecasting stUdies),have besin used in different kinds of organizations ____,-....- - tATEGY*7-7,.ISiUE5 OF.'lkiPLEMENTATION 8 Lat(Cont.r PAYOOF4,, , .... URGENCY: TRACT ABILITY' , SUCCESSFUL . CANDIDATE RESEARCH PROJECT . Orr .-. , MED ill, _ .L0UNC HI ;MED',LoSUNG, 1 MED-!_o1pNc,HI.-.`. MED'LO:UNC' . . . .'5.11, Anelyi: the Ppisibility of developingnew reward sys ,.aa . .051 . . . ', .1 . .10 .24,... -.52 .19,., toms within orgenizietions "so as to extend time horizons . Plain.9!ei.t.li194tiOsi, fie: _ . 17:--Develiip. , shifiditions (genies) to denionstiete the,utility.- . .33 45 . . .. . 2.2 . :43 -. . . --eottichnologiria` tforectSting in real world situations. . ,£13Study emotional; decision, etc.,- impacts` of foreasts on clients (&g.;.Whit Meiei:aclient angry). . , ai4 Eat Up.egueatfan in the ayitern starting in elementary -iiiiiii4;,iothii'Fhai:conika part of the Penereleuitural b'eakirOund Of tomorrow's citizenry. , a 1E:Devoidp a TVprogram series to present popularized X . iFenari°4; faiwc804:,itc.-thOegeOr# public. . al6:Makei foretist data bank available es`"utility!! to, the. 414 naril Public through a nitionwige fOrldWide1T- time public terminal cesiebilitY. £17. Analyze the Poi,- Witty of establishing a pool of-skills to - be available td PoliCyind dicisionrnakers. , around the world to workto changepaiscliiriii to match.trani- , formedsituations: ,.a18 Develop and publicize unifdrin definitions of "modeling," X. "gaming," "normative," and other terms used in FR which have different, meanings to Proctitionori and outsiders. * = aa 1 . Analysis is to identify polarities of opinion within thegroup; in general, the lower the rank, the greater the polarity, though in a few cases a low rank Which of these projectsare, in the opinion of the can be attributed to a relatively high level of uncertainty within the groupsas a whole, the most important? In whatorder, group. with what level of support, should these key projectsbe tackled? Clearly, a policy-maker concernedsolely with The fourth test cut across all four of the criteriaof making the most profound improvements in futures project evaluation. In this case the candidateswere research would, seek opt the candidates having the rank-ordered on the basis of the total number of times highest estimatedurgency and potential.payoff. That they had been included by the respondents in theirset Zs, these two criteria would dominate the initialselec- of the three to five "most important" projects. Whereas tion; subsequently, the research agendaso defined the first three tests produced different lists forurgency could, if appropriate, be tempered in light of criteria and payoff, this final test gavea result that was, of like tractability and cost. Howcan the most urgent and course, the same for- both; as such, it was intended to most promising projects be identified? help ensure that the general feeling of thegroup was not ignored when looking at the projects in terms of This question can be answered in manyways, but only one of the criteria. one of the simplest and the one used hereis to rank order the candidates on the basis of several tests for These tests produced four rank- ordered, lists of each criterion and then to determine which of thepro- projects for urgency and four for payoff. Thetop ten jects come out highest on most of the tests. Those that items on each of the four lists forurgency were then pass all of themthat is, those that surface at the top compared against each other, the goal beingto find no matter which test is appliedcan be said to have the thitems which appeared among the topten on at greatest potential payoff or the greatest urgency. lettwo of the lists. The same was 'done for payoff. Similarly, the remaining items can be rank-ordered by The results are shown in Tables 1 and 2.2 the number of tests they pass. Finally, the WO rank- ordered lists thus formedone for "most urgent" and These tables should be largely self-explanatory. one for "most promising" projects can be compared; Thus, on the question of urgency, the first item items that are the same on both listscan then be rank- shownI.01 "Evaluate the adequacy of current theo- ordered, using precisely the same procedure. The result ries of social change"placed first amo;all 86"pro- will be a single list of whatcan be called the most jects in total weighted vote and third in percentage of important projects. votes cast in the HI column. It fell to a tie with six other projects for rank positions 34-40 on the test ofcom- To this end, four tests were defined and applied. bined HI and MED votes (thereby indicating that the First, the projects were rank-ordered for each of the group was actually quite divided on the matter of two criteria according to a "total weighted vote." This urgency). And it placed first among all items in the figure was computed by assigning tie "HI" positionon number of times it was selected as one of the threeto the scale a value of 4, the "MED" positiona value of 2, five most important items. (Moreover, it received three and the "LO" position a value of 1; the "UNC" votes votes as the single most important project.) On three of were ignored. Next the percentages representing the the four formal tests, therefore, it emergedas one of the distribution of votes in the HI, MED, and LO columns top ten itemsmaking it a very strong research for each project were multiplied by these values. The candidate indeed. products were then summed to derive the total weigh- ted vote. Obviously, the higher this figure, the greater It is an easy matter to synthesize these two lists and the estimated urgency or payoff. to derive a set of the most important projects, consid- The second test was simply to rank order the items in ering urgency and payoff simultaneously. As explained terms of the percentage of votes cast only in the HI before, this can be accomplished by first isolating those column. It need hardly be said that this procedurepro- ;terns appearing on both lists that placeamong the top vides a direct measure of the conviction within the ten on each of the four tests, then drawing out those group about the extent to which the project does in fact (like Item 1.01) which pass at least three of thetests, have a high urgency or payoff. and so on. When this is donealways on' theassump- tion that a tie on rank order is to be resolvedso that the The third test involved rank-ordering the projects' item is given the highest possible placethe heartof a according to the sum of the percentages in the HI and research agenda is established. It consists of the nine MED columns. The major purpose served by this test projects listed in Table 3. 268 ) Table 1. The Most Urgent Research Projects Total % of Votes % of Votes No. of No. of Weighted in ''HI" in "HI" Top VotesTimes Vote + "MED" ITEM Voted First ValueRankValueRankValueIRankValueRank 1.01 Evaluate the adequacy of current theories of social change. 3.61 .57 3 .62 34.40 7 5.03 Devise new or better methods for communi, sting forecasts 3.06 2 .62 1-2 .91 1 1 24-46 - to the policy-maker so that he understands the value impli- cations of different possible events (i.e., how can back- ground differences between the forecaster and user be minimized?). 2.07 Devise or improve methods for forecasting the need for 3.06 3 .62 1.2 .81 6-13 4 5-7 forecasts (i.e., for forecasting "the next crisis"). 2.21 Develop better means of Identifying nonmonetary social 2.84 4 .52 4-5 .85 4-5 3 8-14 --- costs and relating them to monetary costs so that over- , all systems costs can be estimated. 2.012 Develop criteria and methods of forecast evaluation. 2.80 5 .52 4-5 .81 6.13 5 2-4 2.35 Develop better methods for forecasting the quantita- 2.58 6 .38 6.11 .86 2.3 2 15-23 - tive cross-impact effects of technological progress and economic development. 1.14 Analyze the question of how the validity of results ob- 2.47 7 .38 6.11 .76 15.21 1 24-46 - tained by pseudo- experimentation (construction of a simulation model about the future and experimentation within that model) can be checked or measured. 1.02 Conduct a rigorous philcsophical examination of the re- 2.45 8 .29 19-24 .62 34-40 3 8-14 lationship between value systems and technology. 1.06 Analyze the limits of policy control; attempt to clarify 2.42 9-13 .38 6-11 .71 25-27 3 8-14 what portion of the future is within man's control and what portion is not. 1.07 Devise new or better means for measuring the possible 2.42 9-13 .38 6-11 .71 25-27 5 2-4 1 significance of future problems. 2.10 Establish a system for periodically collecting and 2.42 9-13 .33 12-18 .81 6-13 1 24-46 - analyzing past forecasts by each of a number of profession; forecasters, with a view toward dis- covering what was missed and why. 5.01 Develop means of presenting forecasts (whether 2.42 9-13 .38 6-11 .76 15.21 3 8.14 probabilistic or deterministic) to ensure their maxi- mum credibility for the user, especially if the events forecasted differ from those within his experience. 5.11 Analyze the possibility of developing new reward sys- 2.42 9.13 .38 6-11 .71 25.27 3 8-14 tems within organizations so as to extend time hori- zons, promote innovativeness, etc. 269 294 Table 2. The "Highest Payoff" Research Projects Total % of Votes % of Votes No. of No. of Weighted in "HI" in "HI" Top Votes Times ITEM Vote s+ "MED" Voted First ValueRankValue RankValueRank ValueRank 1.07 Devise new or better means for treasuring the possible 3.76 1 .57 7-9 .76 39-44 5 2-5 signifiiance of future problems. 2.10 Establish a system for periodically collecting and 3.37 2 .76 1-2 .90 8-10 1 24-46 - analyzing important occurrences that were not fore- casted, with a view toward discovering what was missed and why. 2.07 Devise or improve methods for forecasting the need for 3.34 3 .76 1.2 .86 11-21 4 0.6 1 forecasts (i.e., for forecasting "the next crisis"). 1.14 Analyze the question of how the validity of results ob- 3.17 4 .71 3 .85 22-26 1 24-46 - trimmed by pseudo -experimentation (construction of a simulation model about the future and experimenta- tion within that model) can be checked or measured. 2.21 Develop better means of identifying nonmonetery 3.16 5 .67 4 .86 11-21 3 9-15 - social costs and relating them to monetary costs so that overall systems costs can be estimated. 2.08 Develop criteria and methods of forecast evaluation. 3.01 6 .62 5-6 .86 11-21 5 2-5 3 1.01 Evaluate the adequacy of current theories of social 3.0078 .62 5-6 .81 27-36 7 1 3 change. 5.03 Dev:se new or better methods for communicating 3.00 7.8 .55 10 .95 2-3 1 24-46 - forecasts to the policy-maker so that he understands the value implications of different possible events (i.e., how can background differences between the forecaster and user be minimized?). 2.05 Develop guidelines for the selection ano use of social 2.96 9 .57 7-9 .86 11-c1 5 2-5 1 indicators, so as to avoid fuzzy conceptualization - faulty assumptions, etc. 2.12 Devise a means of identifying discontinuities in trend- 2.90 10 .57 7.9 .81 27-36 1 lines with sufficient accuracy and sufficient lead-time to permit action to be taken. 4 290 .46«ua.6 Table 3. A Basic Research Agenda for Futures Research Items Passing Al: Four Tests on Both Lists None Items Passing At Leen Three Tests on Both Lists 1.01 Evaluate the adequacy of current theories of social change. 1.07Devise new or better means for measuring the possible significance of future problems. 2.07Devise or improve methods for forecasting the need for forecasts (i.e., for forecasting "the next crisis"). 2.08Develop criteria and methods of forecast evattiation. 2.21 Develop better means of identifying nonmonetary social costs and relating them to monetary costs so that overall systems costs can be estimated. 5.03Devise new or better methods for communicating forecasts.to the policy-maker so that he understands the value implications of different possible events (i.e., how can background differences between the forecaster and user be minimized?). Items Passing At Least Two Tests on Both Lists 1.06Analyze the limits of policy control; attempt to clarify what portion of the future is within man's control and what portion is not. 1.14Analyze the question of how the validity of results obtained by pseudo-experimentation (construction of a drnulation model about the future and experimentatinn within that model) can be checked or measured. 2.10Establish a system for periodically collecting and analyzing past forecasts by each of a number of professional forecasters, with a view toward discovering what was missed and why. It should be remarked that Items 2.07, 2.08, and 2.21 did pass all four tests on the urgent list. These are clearly the most urgent projects. Since tnese nine projects are the only ones that best, only be guessed at and, quite probably, will never appear among the contenders on both the urgent and be specified explicitlyand certainly never be quanti- the highest payoff lists, they automatically define the fied. He is, in short, all of us and, most especially, all of basic: agenda. To extend the agenda, it is necessary to us who are concerned with the future of forecasting. select items on some other basis. For example, if in the The basic agenda, therefore, is less a program that absence of any other guidance urgency becomes the could be adopted all at once by a single authority than central criterion, additional projects can simply be it is a set of highly significant targetsproblems and selected from the remaining items on the urgent list. If goalsthat those with ability, interest, and the requi- anticipated payoff matters most, then that list can be site resources should work toward as best they can, as used. But other measures or standards can readily be regularly as they can. None of these problems, it is safe invoked, such as "number of importance votes" or to say, can ever be "solved"; but they can and should "highest payoff for least cost." Before discussing some provide a central theme and tendency for fundamental of these alternatives, however, it is necessary to say a efforts directed toward making forecasting something bit more about the b.lsic agenda. more than the improvisatory and undisciplined disci- pline which it is today. Our hypothetical policy-maker, whom we have assumed to bt: dedicated to advancing futures research While progress toward this end will thus be made by addressing the problems of highest urgency and only by many persons, at varying rates, in different or- greatest potential payoff, does not exist, of course. In ganizations or alone, it may be useful to continue the reality he is many people with widely different levels of fiction of a single policy-maker and to look at the basic authority and interest, motivated in part by values not agenda from his viewpoint in an approximation of the even hinted at here. He is not completely rational, since real world, where dollars are presumed to matter and the decisions he must make involve factors that can, at where the choice of research projects is also influeRced 271 298 by some estimate of the extent to which these projects cates something of the magnitude of the commitment knd theMselves to research. Doing so will provide that will be required.; insight into the targets of greatest opportunity within A similar analysis of cost vs. tractability could be the* basic agenda. used to structure the priorities of other items that The questionnaire responses on the issues of "tracta- might be added to the nine projects in thi basic agenda. bility" and "cost" offer very useful first-cut answers. Several straightforward approaches are available for Taking the group's assessment on these two criteria isolating these projects, using just the data from the and computing a total weighted vote for each of the questionnaire. As mentioned before, we might simply nine projects (in the manner described earlier), we can select the remaining items from the urgent or the high- plot tractability against cost and, on this basis, define est payoff lists or both. This would have the advantage -reasonable prioritiei within the agenda. The resulting of satisfying directly the two most signif.2nt criteria. cross-plot is shown in Figure 3. We might also select items from the set of projects judged by one or more of the respondents to be the most significant in the entire list of given and newly added candidates. While some of the respondents did not nominate such a project, the results for those who did are quite interesting, as indicated by the project 1.11 1.17 1.N statements in Table 4. Moreover, this approach (if combined with the preceding one),would also result k 2.21 the inclusion of the dozen or so top-ranking projects as 1.11. 513 11. defined by the votes on the most important three to five 2.11 iv items.4 1.14* All of these approaches would also have a further advantage in that the resulting agenda would contain a mixture of large and small, highly challenging and rela- tivelyeasy projects. As pointed out by the person who b. suggested Item 2.36, "I know that this is a small task k and a specialized one at that. But I believe we may be better off with a modest piogram that has a high likeli- hood of substantial payoff than with a more ambitious 3111 one that can flop. A series of successes n projects like 2.111 2.51 3.111 3.51 1.1 2.36 would build up the credibility of futures research TOTAL WEIGHTED VOTE ON COST and give us the opportunity later on to risk working on some of the more difficult and superficially more dub- Figure 3. A ranking of projects. ious projects." One strength of this argument is that it is premised on a recognition of the point made earlier about the fiction of a single decisionmaker with un- I: we assume for a moment that projects should be limited funds and perfect control. taken up one by one, and if we accept the notion that the lower the cost and the higher the tractability the Nevertheless, all of these approaches share the same sooner a project should be undertaken, then this figure fundamental defect: if followed, they would generate indicates fairly clearly the order to be assigned to par- an agenda that would bear little resemblance to the bal- ticular items. Unquestionably, the project to be chosen anced program of research which the group seemed to firstis Item 2.10a rather plausible place to start be recommending in its answers to the first question in because it calls for gaining a deeper appreciation of the questionnaire. For example, if we took as the ini- how and why forecasters have failed to anticipate key tial agenda the 15 unique items in the most urgent and developments in the past. Item 2.08 follows; it too is a highest payoff list:, we would find that fib,. :all into the plausible choice, since it would help clarify our criteria category of "conceptual or philosophical issues" (1.01, for evaluating forecasts. A good case could be made for 1.02, 1.06, 1.07, 1.14), seven fall under "methodology" the sequence of remaining projects as well. Of course, (7 05, 2.07, 2.08, 2.10, 2.12, 2.21, 2.35), none falls under our policy -maker may wish to invest his budget differ- either "institutional and professional issues" or under ently to include, say, the six most important projects "substantive issues," and only three fall under "imple- (1.01, 1.07, 2.07, 2.08, 2.21, and 5.03). The figure indi- mentation and use" (5.01, 5.03, 5.11). This distribu- 279 Table 4. Projects Selected as Being the Single Most Important Ones in the Entire Set* Item No of Item Statement No. Votes _ 11.01 3 Evaluate the adequacy of current theories of social change. t2.08 3 Develop criteria and methods of forecast evaluation. 3.02 2 Develop techniques to enable entire community to panicipate in future studies. 1.04 1 Analyze the rote of values in shaping the future development of values. t1.07 1 Devise new or better means for measuring the possible significance of future problems. 1.13 1 Analyze how future events are discounted (see Linstone's chapter). 1 12.07 1 Devise or improve methods for forecasting the rived for forecasts (i.e., the fore- casting "ths next crisis"). 2.12 1 Devise t means of identifying discontinuities it trend-lines with sufficient accuracy and sufficient lead-time to permit action to be taken. 2.25 1 Undertake a project to resolve major outstanding problems associated with cross- impact analysis and related techniques, such as trend4mpact analyses (e.g., the restriction to event pairs, the meaning of "probability" in these applications, the handling of cumulative impacts, the labor of completing a large matrix, etc.). 2.35 1 Develop. better methods for forecasting the quantitative cross-impact effects of technological progress and economic development. 3.08 * 1 Analyze the effectiveness of existing and possible mechanisms, both formal and informal, for quality control in FR. 3.11 1 Devise or improve means of obtaining international participation in studies that have a crossnational or global significance. 5.01 1 Develop means of prcunting forecasts (whether probabilistic or deterministic) to ensure their maximum credibility for the user, especially if the events fore- casted differ from tnose within his experience. 236 (Newly Investigate effects on forecasts of the future of correcting post trend lines to take suggested) into account unprecedented events in the past. 3.19 (Newly Establish a govenment financed information center available to all and having suggested) up-to-date data on futures research as well as making government data available. *A few of the respondents did not answer this question tIncluded in the basic agenda. tion of effort amor.g the categories obviously departs teria of balance were spelled out. And yet, since it does from the distribution presented at the beginning of this not seem unreasonable to suppose that all or nearly all chapter. of the ingredients of the most worthwhile agenda are present in the list of candidate research projects in this What is needed. then, in order to round out the basic agenda is an analysis within the categories, preferably chapter. and thus the problem is merely one of pulling one that would take the newly suggested items into them out, the reader himself may wish to try his hand. account. This analysis is not attempted here, because it Who, Lfter all, is the decision-maker? Indeed, as sug- would surely be an academic exercise without more gested by many of the contributors to this volume, information about how "balance" is to be defined where else does the final responsibility lie for the future that is, unless our hypothetical decision-maker's cri- of futures research? 273 293 FOOTNOTES -I The quality of the results is unusually high because of the high the cost of each project. Yet if we believe that these problems do not level of expertise and professionalism of those who completed the have final answers (and if, in any case, we remember that these esti- questionnaire, and it is a pleasure to acknowledge the contribution mates are indeed estimates), the values shown can best be under- madeby.these individuals. Those who permitted use of their name stood as indicating the level of funding that might be needed to here include Roy Amara, Harold Becker, Vary T. Coates, James A. launch a single serious and well-defined study on the subject named Dator;Herbert Gerjuoy, Theodore J. Gordon, Arthur M. Harkins, by the projects. The same probably holds true for all of the other pro- %iris W, Hannan; Olaf Helmer, David Hertz, Robert Lamson, jects investigated in the questionnaire; in the few cases where the re- Ralph C. Lenz, Jr., Harold A. Linstone, John McLeod, Joseph P. spondents provided a specific funding level for a project, the range Martino,"George A. Steiner, Murray.Turoff, Richard Wakefield, was between 520,000 and 525 million. Jonathan Ward, and Victor Zarnowitz. 2 The column to the far right on each of these tables provides a 4 It might be noted that Item 3.02 ("Develop techniques to enable fifth, though informal, test of the adequacy of the results. Shown in the entire community to participate in futures rtudies"), which tied ,this,column is the number of times the items were selected by the re- for second to fourth place among the 45 projects that were included spondents as being the single "most interesting and import& it" pro- in the respondents' three to five items, and which is in third place in ject of the three to five outstanding projects in the entire list of candi- the list of singk most important vrojects, does not figure at all in dates. either the most urgent or highest payoff Est. In each case it failed to 3 No one should attempt to read too much precision into the data rank among the top ten items on any of the other three tests; in fact, on the cost of particular items. Given the question that was asked of its position on these tests never was higher than twenty-fifth and it the respondents, it might appear that we could multiply a total sank well below fiftieth on one of them because of strong d ifferences weighted vote by 550,000 and learn what the group believed about of opinionwithin the group. rom The Survey rrent Forecasting Efforts _4346*Boucher -404, ,John,, Helb- TtieVaiiinitchanters in this book have considered respondent's work fell under any of the six research needs in forecasting from mans perspectives, and we felt that this would often bethe,case, since MOIL 'in sin'attenrptlo determine what the literature and the forecasting -workisoriented _toward' substantive eXperienc-"of-the List 10-15 years reveal about the matters (future energy systems, for eriainpla)=- he was- :"practice a.pro ession of forecasting today and how especially urged to answer one question On the forth: either.-Orlinth might be improved. But to the extent What major research; in his opinion, should be, 7, that-one would like to have an awareness of the present . undertaken that would enhance "the credibility, ;situatibn as itreally is, in all its complex confusion and reliability. professionalism, etc. of forecasting?" enthusiasticexperimentation,thesesourcesby themselves provide a truly inadequate answer to such Altogether, some 6500 qUestionnaires were sent to Abestionsnot only because experience is always 937 contacts (individuals and organizationt) in 42 incomplete or because of problems like delay times in.,countries. The initial mailing list was derived from the publication, but also because so much that is presently files of The Futures Group, augmented by a careful happening_ has not as yet been documented and may searchofstandardreferenceslikeJantsch's never be. It seemed appropriate, therefore, to try to go Technological &reediting in Perspective; the De beyond these sources, and to this end a worldwide Houghton, Page, and Streatfeild ;'EP report,.. .And questionnaire survey was conducted during August- Now the Future; and the 1972 lit,-,.DES directory, November 1973. This appendix highlights the results Social Forecasting. Additionally, names were drawn from the survey. from the address list in the Wilcox bibliography on As stated in the introduction to the questionnaire, social indicators,t the membership directory of the thesp.f:cific_ objective of the survey was "to obtain Association of Consulting Management Engineers, a information on current research projects designed tc list of national academies of science, and the list of advance the art and science of forecasting, whether by chapters of the World Future Society. Because the (1) clarifying its philosophical foundations, (2) refining widest possible coverage was sought, the criterion for or extending its techniques, (3) developing standards selection was simple: include any source which, by of professionalism, (4) improving opportunities for reputation or affiliation, could reasonably be expected collaboration or the distribution and exchange of to have a Current interest in forecasting. results, (5) assaying the appropriate scope of substan- To further ensure adequate coverage, however, it tive concerns, or (6) enhancing the usefulness of results was decided to send several copies of the questionnaire to executives, other planners, and the public at large." to each addressee, who was invited then to pass them Respondents were asked to use one of the question- on to others who were doing relevant research, whether naires provided for each such project, and to be as in the same organization or elsewhere. Indeed, as many utimplete in their answers as possible; the form was as 20 copies were enclosed with the letters sent to designed so that even those questions which might individuals in countries like the Soviet Union, the touch on proprietary or otherwise sensitive issues PeoplesRepublic of China,India,Brazil, and could beansweredgenerally.If noneof the Australia, the work of which in forecasting is little 275 300 States. Large numbers of extra completion, the respondents were asked to :copies ,were also :se0to the leading centers of futures indicate this fact.) MIO,Itithee-xpectation,that the recipient would be 4. Level of effort. (Answers here could be e to diitribute them among the expressed either in man-months or by the luzatiOn's extensive contacts project budget.) Table t SU miiiarizes by geographical area the data 5. A description of the substance of the research. oti-invittet anel-resPenses..,As indicated, the United ("What preblem or set of problems is the work, :Statei adebithtedfoitha highest percentage of contacts designed to help solver) -(56:81feiceht), while the Eaitern F '-opean nations and :the,.Soviet-Utiioti accounted for the least number of 6. A statement of the principal hypothesis or -4:UeStiOntiaires (6.9 percent) and the lowest number of hypotheses being explored. ("What answers' -..iOntittiIikpercent),In general, organizations in the do you expect to test or establish?") andlin.Western Europe dominated the 7. A general description of the research ap-. ii4afSOUices and;_hence, the distribution, with a total proach or method being used, of the contacts and 74.5 percent of nmtiiled questionnaires. 8. References to major work "accomplished af your organization or elsewhere,thalloiiiiew; ..t rie.*reentage of contacts that responded (14.1 as an important precursor to thii -peircent)..waS-typical of surveys of this type, though tion." coniideribly- lower than-we had expected, given the number of organizations and the apparent level of 9. References to major ongoing work that "is: 3 activity in .forecasting in the world. Aside from the likelyto support, augment, or perhapi usual drawbacks of such surveysquestionnaires challenge the findings from-this project." arrive when the recipient is traveling, the task of 10. The open-ended questiononentioned earlier, completingstillanotherquestionnaireproves which was"intended to gather your judgments abhorrent, and so onthe explanation for this poorer on (a) how the results of your project Might than anticipated showing may be straightforward: best be extended in subsequent research, or (b) either people are averse to telling others about work othermajorresearch undertakings that not yet completed or very little of the kind of research should be begun. . ." we were concerned about is being done. The latter is quite probably the case. In any event, Table 1 reveals a In general, the quality of the responses to the central decent though hardly overwhelming response. It also questions in this list varied considerably. Many of the shows, incidentally, that including extra question- questionnaires demonstrated dubious awareness of naires did not increase the responsea fact open to relevant research already reported, little apparent several interpretations. communication with other specialists, and narrowness- about possible developments in forecasting. Most, The questionnaire, which ran to four 81h by 1 I pages however, reflected significant and often sophisticated with instructions, asked the contacts to provide several work and interests, and a more than passing familiarity kinds of information, the most important of which with the literature. But the range in quality, coupled were as follows: with the extreme diversity in subject matter and the relatively small sample size, makes it difficult to generalize from the results about the overall status, Name and address of the organization where 1. character, or directions of research in progress. On the allor most of the research was being other hand, the responses may be indicative of existing performed. A companion question asked if or emerging lines of interest. A review of the otherorganizationsorindividuals were information offered by the respondents may, there- contributing to the effort, either as subcon- fore, be helpful. tractors or as unpaid advisors or co-workers. Answers to the first question provided insight into 2. Source of funding of the research. (Multi- the kinds of organizations conducting the research. client and self-supported research projects The answers, tempered by an occasional guess as to could, of course, be included.) how they should be categorized, are summarized as 3. Duration of the project. (If the project was a shown in Table 2. This table indicates that while continuing effort with no fixed date of universities are in the lead, as one might expect, the 276 Table 1 '4 RESPONSE PATTERN IN THE SURVEY INVITEES RESPONSES RESPONSES BY TYPE Average n.) % of Responses .3 Number of % of all Other % of AREA Number Question- all Question - Number % of Number of Than all SURVEYED , of naires per Contacts naires of Category Question-Question- Responses Contacts Contact ,(n=937) (n=6545) Contacts Invited naires naires Total (n=183) UNITED STATES 532 4.5 56.8 .37.2 68 12.8 OTHER NORTH AND 81 10 91 49.7 SOUTH AMERICA 90 5.7 9.6 8.0 6 6.7 WESTERN EUROPE 4 4 8 4.3 224 10.7 23.9 37.3 40 17.9 EASTERN EUROPE AND 46 16 62 34.0 THE SOVIET UNION 36 12.5 3.8 6.9 5 PACIFIC, FAR EAST. 13.9 6 0 6 3.3 AND OTHERS 55 12.3 5.9 1.6 13 23.6 11 5 16 TOTALS 8.7 937 6.9 100 100 132' 14.1 148 35 183' 100 ' An additional 15 or 20 contacts responded too late for theirquestionnaires to be included in,the tabulation 302 303 . Table 2 WHERE THE RESEARCH IS BEING PERFORMED AFFILIATION OF PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR Private Independent Total AREA Unaffiliated BusinessGovernmentResearchAssociationUniversity Questionnaires SURVEYED Individual Corporation Center Received 8 17 3 25 25 81 *Other North and South `America 0 2 2 0 0 0 4 Western Europe 0 15 5 8 6 12 46 .Eastern.Eu rope and .the Soviet Union 0 0 2 0 2 2 6 Pacific, Far East. -and:Othei 0 1 0 2 3 5 11 1TOTAL QUESTION- NAIRES'RECEIVED 8 35 12 35 14 44 148 % OF TOTAL (n=148) 5.4% 23.6% 8.1% 23.6% 9.5% 29.8% 100% Subcontractors or cooperating organizations are not included (see text) independentresearchorganizationsandprivate questionnaires, it would appear that businesscor- industry are close behind. The prominence of industry porations andthegovernments of thenations in this comparison may be encouraging in view of the reporting are the two primary sponsors of futures mixed attitudes toward forecasting among business research internationally. A close third are the research executives, as discussed elsewhere in this book. organizations themselveswhich should surpriseno In the aggregate, the projects reported on in the one, since these centers are often' forced to use their questionnaires appear to involve principally an in- own resources in order to investigate important basic house operation, rather than the use of outside issues that may never become fashionable or have a contractors or the participation of other organizations bearing on policy. (It might also be remarked that as co-workers. Of the respondents who provided this nonprofit research organizations, at least in the United information, 42.5 percent mentioned subcontracted States, typically devote some portion of their profit to work or noted relationships with cooperating groups. self-supported studies in the public interest.) The The types of partners or subcontractors, and the distribution of support by source is presented in Table relative distribution by frequency of mention, are 3.Again, the reader should be warned thatit shown below: sometimes required a guess to tell where a response should be included. % OF THE TOTAL A third question asked when the research began and SUBCONTRACTING OR SUBCONTRACTING OR when it would end. While 54 of the respondents did not COOPERATING COOPERATING ORGANIZATION ORGANIZATIONS complete this part of the questionnaire, the answers of Individuals/individual the others indicate an average duration for the projects Consultants 28.4 reported of 2.03 years. (This figure was derived from Business Corporations 16.0 data for both completed projects and those still Consulting Firms 13.6 continuing.) The data are somewhat skewed, however, UniArsity 13.6 so that the median period is 18 months, and the mode is Government 12.3 12 months. Associations 7.4 Research Foundations 7.4 Because the questionnaire was intended to capture Private Foundations 1.3 information only on those projects in progress, it ( should be pointed out that of the 148 questionnaires, The second question concerned the source of nearly 30 percent concerned projects that had already funding for the research. F.-om the148completed been completed or were scheduled to be completed by 278 3 11 Table 3 SOURCES OF SUPPORT OF THE RESEARCH* TYPE AND NUMBER OF SPONSORS Self- Supported Private AREA by the Government Private BusinessAssociationResearch University Unspecified SURVEYED Researcher Foundation Cow lratioi. Institution United States 9 16 7 16 8 17 10 2 Other North and South Amirica 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 _Western.Europe 1 10 4 15 5 8 2 3 Eastern Eurbpe 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 Pacific, Far East, arid,Other 0 1 0 3 1 3 2 1 TOTAL NUMBER OF SPONSORS 10 31 11 36 17 28 15 6 % OF TOTAL (nr.154) 6.5% 20.1% 7.1% 23.4% 11.0% 18.2% 9.7% 3.9% Includes only Mose protects described in the questionnaires, total adds to t54 (rather than 148) because of multiple sponsorship ina few cases the end of 1973. Since an additional 11 questionnaires A ,ubstantially larger number of questionnaires described projects with open-ended or uncertain reported level of effort in terms of man-months or completion dates, only 94 (about 63 percent) definitely man-years. The results indicate an average of 3.1 man- can be identified as efforts in progress. years per project; the median and the mode turntd out to be essentially the sameabout 2.0 man-years. Fourth, there was a related question about the actual Either of these values might be reasonable if they funding level or manpower commitment entailed by include research aids and junior staff personnel. They these projects. Either man-months or dollars could be are almost certainly wrong, however, if they refer only used to specify level of effort; about 55 percent of the to senior researchers. questionnaires contained an answer of one sort or the Answers to the question asking for a description of other. the substance of the project itself sometimes conveyed the idea that no one, including the principal in- Only a small number provided the dollar amount. vestigator, knew what the project was about. Other Since some of these projects had a duration in excess of answers involved a kind of shorthand, though readily one year, and sometimes considerably more, we translated by those familiar with work of the same sort. normalized the dollar amounts to a 12-month basis, in But the m.ority speak clearly to a general audience. order to get an impression of the cost of a project year The variety in lucidity is paralleled by a variety in for work of this type. The resulting average funding subject ;natter. Nevertheless, when taken together, the level was about $104,000 per project yeara figure data provide an indication that professionals concern- that looks much too high on the face of it, and should ed with forecasting have, in the aggregate, impticitly in any case be viewed with caution, given the sample elected to work on an unevenly balanced set of issues. size. On the other hand, the median value which A classification of the projects into rough categories emerged from this analysisapproximately $50.000 (somewhat like those used in Chap. 18, though not per project yearwould seem at least to be in line with exactly the same) makes the point: recent experience in the realm of the independent 1. Research on Philosophical or Conceptual nonprofit and profitmaking research centers. The data distribution also happened to be bimodal, with modes Issues. About 3 percent of the projects can be of $10,000 and $80,000, which again seems to reflect assigned to this category. actual levels when all of the different types of research 11. Research on Methods, Approximately 25 organizations are taken into account. percent can be included here. 279 0 5 111. Research on Issues of ProfessiOnaliiin. A little "historical case study, computer modeling, laboratory over 10 percent of the projects seemed to fall experimentation, essay, poll, and so on." As a result, here. the number of specific techniques named was quite limited and it was possible to group the answers into Research on Substantive Issues in Business the small set of categories given in Table 4. Delphi, percentage of and Industry. The largest trend extrapolation, and system dynamics are shown responses (33 percent) could bejncluded here. separately because of the frequen vith which they V. Research on Substantive Social Issues. Some were mentioned, and the meaning .wo of the given 29 percent of the responses can be assigned to categories changed somewhat in view of the responses: this group. "essay" came to include scenario writing, and "ex- perimentation" came to include psychological tests and social experiments. The "other"category served to if -WS categorisationisreasonably meaningful, another 'general conclusion of some significance collectreferences to techniques like cross-impact analysis and content analysis. follows. It is not that less than half of the work reported to us (i.e., the items in I, H, and HI) can be considered An interesting point not made by the table is that relevant to the aims of the survey, but rather that a among contacts who completed a number of question- sizable number of the respondents apparently believe naires, a single method tended to be cited throughout, that the only sensible way of trying to improve despite differences in the research subject and in the forecasting is by trying to forecast.Perhaps this is the hypotheses. This may give further credence to the message of the items in IV and V. general belief that the choice of methods is determined as much by a researcher's earlier enthusiasm for a In our opinion, the iaost discouraging, and yet particular technique as by the appropriateness of the probably the most important, finding from the survey technique to the project in question. In sum, organiza- came in reviewing the answers to the question that tions and individuals ride methodological hobby- asked about hypotheses being tested. Nearly 42 percent horses. To put it differently, they specialize. of the questionnaires left this question unanswered. Equally striking, a large fraction of those that did have Answers to the final three questionsregarding a response merely extended the description of the antecedent research, current related research, and project or simply offered pieties. In short, only a promising lines of new researchwere often alike in minority of the respondents seemed to have a being cliquish. The importantearlierwork was done by hypothesis for their work, or seemed to be aware of the respondent, others in his organization, or his what a hypothesis is, or were able to articulate it, if they sponsor; the importantcurrentwork was being done knew.Evenallowing for the fact that some projects by the last two; the importantnewwork would be to may not require a hypothesis (e.g., the compilation of extend the present work. These are fair answers, of an anthology), the absence of such a statement for course, and the instructions in the questionnaire may most projects suggests that the work itself may amount even have encouraged them. Moreover, in some cases to no more than sheer rummaging among available it might be pedantic to refer to major sources (e.g., a methodologies or sources of data. The point is made familiarity with Forrester if one is working in system more than once in this book that such rummaging dynamics). But the in-group character of the responses provides a principal reason why the development of can make one wonder. After all, it is one thingif a futures research has been slow and irregular, and has Rand Corporation cites only its own work or if a often involved waste and failure.Itis, therefore, Herman Kahn cites no one, since either is apt to be disconcerting to observe in the questionnaire results doing something unprecedented. But Rands and that the tendency apparently still prevails of under- Kahns are rare, and even they do unprecedented things taking studies with no clear, explicit notion of what very rarely. Thus, what the questionnaires may show in one expects to discover or verify, much less any clear, these instances is the presence of the infamous not- explicit notion of the possible value of the results. if invented-herefactor, or at least the possibility of a actually obtained. For a policy-oriented activity like genuinelyserious probleminprofessional com- futures research, this augurs a continued slow and munications. In this regard, it is worth noting that a irregular growth. large number of the respondents neglected to answer any of these three questions. The next question, on the general approach being used in the research, was accompanied by several For whatever it may signify, it is also worth noting examples of the kindof answer being sought: that out of the 6500 mailed questionnaires, just one was 'WO6 Table 4 METHODS BEING USED IN THE RESEARCH* Modeling Polling (except Scenario-- Or as Trend Writing Historical Experl- AHEA Other included Extrapo- System and Case moots- SURVEYED Delphi Surveys elsewhere) lation Dynamics Essays Studies tion Other Unspecified United States 15 10 18 8 5 7 15 10 8 16 Other North and South& America 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 Western Europe 7 4 18 4 4 7 9 4 0 8 Eastern Europe and ns co the Soviet Union 1 1 3 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 Pacific, Far East, and Other 3 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 TOTAL NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS 26 16 46 13 9 17 26 16 9 28 % OF TOTAL (n=205) 12.7% 7.8% 22.4% 6.3% 4.4% 8.3% 12.7% 7.8% 3.9% 13.7% Includes only the methods given in the questionnaires: the total exceeds 148 because many projects involve the use of two or more methods. 307 308 4 respondent who accepted our invitation attempted to list them here separately, thougha *_SiiiigC44"Poisible,new.line oi rese4rch. number of them were singled out for evaluation inthe 8eciuse the research suggestions, inparticular, are analysis reported in Chap. 18. commonly tied to;ilie"projeCts described,we have not FOOTNOTES 1- R. M. Brooks, G. M. Beal, and G. E. Klooglan, Bibliography (San Francisco. Calif.: Jossey-Bass, Inc., 1972),pp. Social'i7rnditypors and SocietalMonitoring: An Annotated 433-464. _ 2823 0 3 liography of Research utures Research Wayne I. Boucher Thu biblicigraphy references many -f the technical be an arbitrary and probably meaningless classifica- and 'general-interest publications that were reviewed tion,the entries in this bibliography have been -listed- dining the course of this project. Itis, therefore, alphabetically by author. One important advantage of ;Or- reiii-ofilyto the date of the formal end of research this arrangement is,that it.compels brOwiing: -Onille,PiOjectearly 1974. Hundreds of papers and It should be emphasized-that futures ,doleniofb9oks have appeared since then, a few of the lacks a bask, comprehensive, -critically: annotated thol*iinpOrtant of ..which are cited here, though bibliographyitself an iMPOrtatit without-any claim to being truly representative in the research, since the problems of preparing sifeht:woi-k. selection. Because the rate of .advance in research on -are complex, even- if ;titivation is limited. only to basic issues in futures research has been maddeningly English-language publications. SeVeral helpfulgerieral --low; thisbibliography-can-still-be -considered-to-be bibliographies have been issued, hoWever. Among current, even though it does not include many of the those that have appeared since 1970 and are still mist recent titles. accessible, the folloviing early compilations can be The bibliography has several other limitations that should also be mentioned. Like the project itself, the recoil-, mended: bibliography is concerned not with actual forecasts, Charles N. EhlersIntegrative Forecasting:literature but with ideasaboutforecastingits current strengths, Survey.Exchange Bibliography 252 (Monticello, its limitations, and its future. Moreover, while writers Ill.: Council of Planning Librarians, January of many nationalities are represented, the bibliography 1972). is further limited in that it omits materials in languages Annette Harrison,Bibliography on Automation and other than English. Thus, itis far from exhaestive, Technological Change and Studies of the Future. even within its own domain. Nevertheless, it should be Paper P-3365-4 (Santa Monica, Calif.: The Rand of value to many readers in that it brings together an Corporation, March 1971). important sample of publications from across the Louis M.Maguire, An Annotated Bibliography of the spectrum of interests that must be consideredif Literature on Change.Exchange Bibliography forecasting is to become more useful, and if futures 216-217 (Monticello, Ill.: Council of Planning researchisto become more sophisticated and Librarians, September 1971). professional. Michael Marien (ed.),The Net List Delphi: An Explorztory Survey of Essential Reading for the Aristotle says somewhere that the worst of books is Future. EPRCExploratoryReportER-6 not wholly bad, because it can make us think of what is (Syracuse, N.Y.: Educational Policy Research better. The same is true. of course, for the best of Center, Syracuse University Research Corpora- books. Quality varies throughout this list, as inevitably tion, 1972). it must, but most of the items can be recommended Peter Padbury and Diane Wilkins,ThE Future: A withoutqualification.Thefewpatentlybad Bibliography of Issues and Forecasting Techni- publications which have been included are present by ques,Exchange Bibliography 279 (Monticello, design, since they ale so obviously instructive, and Ill.: Council of Planning Librarians, April 1972). since they sometimes represent the best discussion so Weldell Bell and James A. Mau (eds.),The Smiolasik far of the problems they address. of the Future: Theory. Cases, and Annotateif Forecasters and futures researchers tend to have Bibliography(New York: Russell Sage Founda- global concerns, as indeed they should. and their works tion, 1971). arc not easily categorired. Hence, to avoid what would L. D. Wilcox. R. M. Brooks, G. M. Beal. and G. E. 283 310 KtstMg Ian.-SocialIndicatorsandSocietal Sciences (New York: Oxford University Press, Monitoring kr Annotated Bibliography (San 1969). :Fraixiico; Jossey -Sass, Inc., 1972). Alker, Hayward R., Jr., Karl W. Deutsch, and Antoine H. Stoetzel (eds.), Mathematical Approaches to . Among tik most recent compilations are two guides Politics (San Francisco: Jossey-BassAnc., 1973). -available ihrOtigh the World Future Society: Allen, D. H., "Credibility Forecasts and Their MichsieiMarieti, Societal Directions and Alternatives: Applicatkon to the Economic Assessment of -A Guide tit-lhe 'Literature (Lafayette, N.Y.: Novel Research and Development Projects," :Infoimition, for Policy Design, 1976). Operational Research Quarterly. Vol. 19, No. 1 27he Future: A Guide toInformation Sources (March 1968), pp. 25-42. (Washington, D.C.: World Future Society, 1977). Allen, Francis R. (ed.), Technology and Social Change (New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts,..1957)._ It; should be added, perhaps, that many of the Allison, David, "The Growth of Ideas," International :publications citedinthe following bibliography Science and Technology (July 1967), pp. 24.32. contain a-list-of references of their own. Alonso, %Main, "Predicting,Bpi Data," Journal of the Americin Institute of Planners. Vol. 34, No. 4 (July 19681. pp, 248.454. Abt, Clark C., .Serious Games (New York: Viking Alternative Futures: Contexts in which. Social- In- Press, 1970). dicators Must Work. Research note EPRC-6747- Abt, :Clark C., "An Approach to Methods of I I(Menlo Park, Calif.:Stanford Research Combined and Sociotechnological Forecasting," Institute, February 1971). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Amara, Roy, "The Institute for the Future: Its Vol. 2, No. 1 (1970), pp. 17-22. Evolving Role," The Futurist, Vol. 7, No. 3 (June Ackermann,RobertJ.,"Discussion:Projecting 1973), pp. 123-126. 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