DOCURENT.RESONE t MI 158. 318 i . 28 .005 359'. 0 AUTHOR Boucher, Wayne I.,, .Ed. ''TITLE' Vie Study of the- Future:-Atr. Agenda- for. Research. .. zSIONS AGENCY National Science Foundation, Washington,D.C. RANK .1,. 0 Progkam. = , REPOR.F.NO SP/124-7700'36 . PUB DATE -Jul. 7,7 . , . GRANT' GI-37178 . , NOTE .3430.1Parts.may be marglhallf legible due to small type . AlaIlotiiiE FROMSuperintendent of 'Docnikents U.S. 'Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.:-204.02 (StookNo. I 038-000-00327=5) °' EDRS PRICE MF-$0.83 HC-$18.87Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Anttiologies; *Futures. (of Society); Research Methodology; *Research Needs;.*Research... oppdrtunities; *State of the Art Reviews . ABSTRAdT This. Collection of 18pipers is concerned with the beliefs,, methods, practices, and-'resultsassociated with,thetype of forecasting which has become knoinin thelast 10,. to 15 yelirs. as 4futuie-s research.n. Topics discussedinclude: (1) forecaSting .methodology; (2) the validity `of forecastingsystems;.(3)unforeseen% developients;* (4) fgrecasting inpolitical-sciencelsoCiblogy, technolo4y,, and ecomics; (5) normativeforecasting; (6) forecasting. for decisionmakingr and policymaking;17), professional issues in fdrecasting research} and(8)the future, of kiltimes research. Resu lts ofasurvey of current foredasting effortsynda bibliography are: apPendee. (Authdr/STS) O B. .f ..` *****************Iii*********.***44i.*****44#***ioit**4*************;ic,***iTp '.'Documents acquired byERIC 3.116111de' many informalunpublished 4materiali not-,available'frOi:other sonrces..:;ERiq *tikes, eVert.etfort...*. ,*,..to obtain the-.bestcopyavailable.'.-Nevertheless, 4tens.%0Inarginal*. *. reproducibility 'are oftenxemOounteret:and this .aifeet*, the gualitt * *,of 'the microfiche as ta hardcopy reprOduatiOns.-ERIC.,MakeS7itiOalleble:' * the ERIC Document ROprodnotiOnService -PRA" 44::atii. espOnsibie forthequality originaLydOCilmenti Reproductions: !O. supplied by 7EbRS .are the,;best.*'thair.Can.icrmade "trek the.Original.;" *****************4******4****#*******************************4***#,t #* . , U.S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION &WELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE DF EDUCATION .Wayri e I. Bopcher THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO- DUCED' EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OB4ORGANiZATION 61:NOIN- (Editor) 1' A TING IT POINTS OF ViEVFOR OPINIONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REeRE "'sewOFFICIAL NATIONAL 1471TUTE OF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY . With ContributionsBy' Roy A ara SOO s.J9lin V. HO; ,r--f Wayne I. IdaR. Hoos op Marvin J. Cetron7. .Ralph C. Lenz, Jr. v--I .'George'Foster Harold A. Linstone LP Herbert Gerjuoy John McHale. Theodore J. GOrdOn. Josephoseph P..Ma tino Willis W. Harman Katherine H.- Willson Olaf Helnier Vict6r Zarnow tz . d. jUly 1977 Prepared with the Sulipciit of the National 'Science FoUndatiOn Itisearch Applications-iiireetorate':. :RANN-Resiarck Appliedto NatIonal Needa. Division of Intergovernthental Science andTublidTechnQlog Under Grant No.-GI 37178 . As we study oururrent situation and. explore ways to improve it, we end that we are to enhance timan Survival. and well - being; we must be concerned About the 'future .-For human rvivalanwell-being dependupon our ability to anticipate ! cope.with future. pblemsand threats, to perceive,.evaltrate and control the effectsof ()Or, actions., and imagine arid create more desirable futures.. How we;-cannprOve our ability' opursue these goals through research is `the subject of thisolurrW. If we ar-to enhance human survival 'and well-being,we need to improve our capacity tos)c and answer questions about the future and implementthe answers, increase ouunderstandings agreement about future problems andoptions in order to make ssible effective action, and create aprocessto improve such Capacity,. mg and agreement: I mortant tlernents of this difficult and importantprocess include actions. to perfor research concerning the future, to evaluate and revisethe content and.' methds.oi such research, andto coinunicate and nse the results. We need, for exapee; to improve the adequacy, clarity aridprecisffin not only of the concepts which - wese to think about the futureJoutralso df thesymb,ols (the words, mathematical syOils and. graphic/visual techniques) whi.chwe-use to express,' manipUlate mmunicate the concepts. The following are some of the importantquestions -which we need to address. What dspects.of thefuturednwe,wish to consider, forexample, climate, environment, resources, technology, the economy, social structure, and human'values?a4atare the chars cteristicsof these elements, for example,predictability, 'uniqueness, stability, and, controlabilitY? What factuali-policy,,arewilueguestions should we ask about future events? For ekamPle, what Future events and itipaoctsare possible? How pkbablears,, they? What sorts of contingency are involved.Thar ts, ifwe take a particular action, :" then what-will be.the impar-if.we,wishto achieve a particular goal; then what actions must:wetake? With what degree of certaintycan we make statements about possibilities, probabilities and contingencies? How desirableand popular'are,the events and impiCts, fOr what systems,groups, and values? What actions should we lituallY, take? We need alsoto ask what intellectual tOOlsc-fecb4ologies,_sorial - processes, and institutions can we:develop and use ifi We wish to address these problems : :1 and questions, and to implement the answers effectively.? : , ' ' .This book-,was created in order Io help.us address oriany of, the, problems, questions, and needs oiltliried above/ ItcOntains an agenda for researchwhich present's i ; 'a challenge and an .opportunity to those who perform, support,dUse research on the future, and is the result OfI project supported by'theNatiOnal ience. Foundation's Research Applied' to National Need; (RA N) Pio 'ramin order to assess /tie state-of- thegart and'needs, for addition?l r earch in thr) geld of, forecasting.Although the. - conferences leading to this volume. ere-held in Juary i974, and the ilaPerpprinted. .here:,were prepared .primarilkduri ip g 103-1975,- t e vollue iSt still -timely- since cumulitive progress in this field isitinforttiriatelySlow. /.., fix,; . ' ' It is hoped that, by, helping.tostimulate research on the future and raise its quality, . foster an ongoing dialogue about subject,s and methodsfor research, and sirengthen the community of_performers and users. ofesearch on the future, this book will help us o more effecrivelYto anticipate and cope with future problems, thrdats, and opportunities; -to. perceive, evahlate, and control the' effects of our actions; and. to imagine, design; and create more desirable futures. Robert W. Lamson JProgram' Manager Divisions of Intergovernmental Science and Public -Technology National Science' Foundation November l97f, I. 4. .:.,. .., ,prefi, ac .. , . ...., This volumetis concern \ . ,with forecast ng.'in particular, it i concerned, with the various beliefs, dethods, pra, aces, and rests 'associatid with-a \kind of forecasting, that \hascome to be referred. in the last Ito, l5 years as "futures research..' Most earlier workson these subjectsand there are any---have been, philosOphical or procedural, de ciiptiv'e 'or exhortatory. They'ha,e tried to help us understand why we should stu the haul: ; how and to whatextent this is posible; 43 -what-the consequences may be if we fail to forecast responsiblyor if We fail to use the best available forecasts; who is or should! be involved in preparingand evaluating forecasts; where errors Lave been mile; hgw forecastingcan be made to complement planning .and to strengthien decisionmaking;- what subjectshave been or should be addressed; how forecasting articulates with the larger needs and interests ofsociety; and theiike. But even the very best of these works his givenus only slight guidance 6n., the crucial qnestion of what.can and 'ought to be doneto overcome current constraints ` on, forecasting, constraints that prevent -fdrecwing;\ from making the kinds of contributions \ that 'could otherwise reasoriablile-e`xpected of it. .. , \ \ '1 ,Suggestion\s aboiffid, dedurse: Lacking, howev .. r, has been an attept to view and review such suggestions in context with each otherr against a com on backdrop --of actual experience in forecasting. Also missing from arter disciissions-h xas-bee-ra careful*nd sisternatic effortto. single out thOse difficult' alcanbe dealt with only through research,' as opPosed:to, say, political actio nstitutional change, or o...t edliCatiom, Finally, -even where questions that best lendt Ives to research have been identified, fey/ authors indeed have 'diedto evalu priorities among- the Candidates. 'In short, While most authoir'sagree that foreca ing is still one of the . priMitiviarts and -thateacch Can makea difference in man ',instances, the field is ' without a.research agefdar The specifieconcern and aim of thisook is to describe the elements of such an'agenda and then t6 organize and evaluateese elenients. ,\ ., , e . :,::A The difficulties of such an undertaking are beyond thecomtens, of a single individual, for\account mUst be taken of isiues of philosophy, then,.methodology, . instituflonalizatitkn, professionalism, implementation, and de, ande ch of these sets . of-issues must be seen in a way. that cuts-acrOksmany disciplines. Fortutely, with the support of a grant (rpm the U.S. Nation Science Fooundation, itwas. possible to d%w upon the insight arid\experienee of some of the world's outstanding authoritieson forecasting'.in the,.catirit of preparing