OPTIONS FOR COOPERATIVE ACTION IN THE EUPHRATES AND TIGRIS REGION PAPER 20 STOCKHOLM, MARCH 2012 SIWI Paper 20 Published March 2012 by Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) Design by Elin Ingblom, SIWI. Cover photos by Jakob Granit, SIWI. For electronic versions of this and other SIWI publications, visit www.siwi.org. List of Abbreviations AQUASTAT FAO’s Global Information System on MCM Million Cubic Meters Water and Agriculture NASA National Aeronautics and Space BCM Billion Cubic Meters Administration ET Euphrates and Tigris RO Runoff GADM Database of Global Administrative Sida Swedish International Development Areas Cooperation Agency GIS Geographic Information System SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission HPP Hydropower Production USD United States Dollar IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate WUE Water Use Efficiency Change WorldClim Global Climate Data LocClim FAO Local Climate Estimator WWW World Water Week Glossary Ecosystem goods and services Resources and processes that are supplied by natural ecosystems. Examples include water purification provided by wet- lands and nutrient cycling. Hydroeconomic model Model that links economic values to hydrological flows and uses. Marginal benefit The additional benefit received by one unit increase in inputs. Minimum flow requirement The minimum water flow required to keep aquatic ecosystems healthy. Multiplier effect The indirect effects on the level of economic activity (output, income or employment), associated with a policy interven- tion (e.g. where the hydropower generated is used for industrial development, which results in an increase of the gross domestic product (GDP)). The size of the multiplier depends on the time period over which it is measured, and the geo- graphical area considered. Shadow value The value of the resource in an alternative use. Public good A good which can be consumed by several individuals simultaneously and from which no individual is excluded. In eco- nomic terms, public goods are non-rivalrous and non-excludable. Examples include public parks and air quality. Water use efficiency (WUE) An indicator of the amount of water used to produce one unit of output. SIWI Team Jakob Granit, Project Director John Joyce, Project Manager, Senior Water Economist Mats Eriksson, Programme Director, Knowledge Services Lotten Hubendick, Programme Officer, Knowledge Services Maria Jacobson, Programme Officer,K nowledge Services Andreas Lindtsröm, Programme Officer,K nowledge Services Phillia Restiani, Programme Officer,K nowledge Services Johanna Sjödin, Programme Officer, Knowledge Services Independent Advisors and Contributors Andy Bullock (Independent Consultant) Prof. Dennis Collentine (Swedish Agricultural University) Stuart Pettigrew (Independent Consultant) Prof. Manuel Pulido-Velazquez (Technical University of Valencia) Consultants Saad Alsam (Brockman Geomatics Sweden AB) Kjell Wester (Brockman Geomatics Sweden AB) Dag Wisaeus (Vattenfall Power Consultants, Sweden) Reference/Observer Group Government representatives from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey and representatives from the following regional institutions: • American University of Beirut (AUB) • International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) • International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) SIWI is grateful for the financial support from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) to undertake this study. How to cite: Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012), Options for cooperative action in the Euphrates and Tigris Region, Paper 20, Stockholm: SIWI, 2012. Disclaimer: The analysis and policy recommendations of this Study do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reference/Observer Group Members, the Independent Advisors or Sida. SIWI takes full responsibility for the findings and the presentation of the study. Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary, English 6 Executive Summary, Arabic 7 Executive Summary, Farsi 8 Executive Summary, Turkish 9 2. Introduction and Study Objectives 10 2.1 Why SIWI and partners? 11 3. Overall Study Methodology 12 4 Euphrates and Tigris Baseline Characterisation 13 4.1 Basin and sub-basin delineation 14 4.2 Baseline economic values from irrigated agriculture 17 4.2.1 Baseline irrigated agriculture; area water use and market values in the sub-basins 17 4.2.2 Hydropower baseline; market values 20 4.2.3 Ecosystems; wetlands, salinity and sea coast 23 5. Examples of Hotspots in the Euphrates and Tigris Region 24 5.1 Climate change 24 5.2 Interbasin water transfer from adjacent (neighboring) basins 24 5.3 Regional interdependence – dust and small particles 24 5.4 Within basin transfers – example Thartar Lake 5 6. Hydroeconomic Modelling – Simulation 26 6.1 Purpose of the hydroeconomic simulation model 26 6.2 Input and output variables in the model 26 6.3 The hydroeconomic model scenarios 26 7. Future Work 30 8. Conclusions 32 Bibliography 33 1. Executive Summary For the Euphrates and Tigris (ET) riparian countries of Iran, be used to support environmental flows, it has a relatively low Iraq, Syria and Turkey we have undertaken a macro-level baseline shadow value when compared to irrigated agriculture. characterisation to visualise current water resources management The study verifies that that ET system is currently under sig- practices and a hydroeconomic simulation model to illustrate nificant pressure resulting in water quality degradation within the possible marginal benefits of cooperative action at a system level. system and externality impacts beyond the system, such as haze The riparian countries in the ET region are connected by the water and dust storms with significant negative impacts to the economies resources flowing across borders within one system. in the neighbouring region. The system is heavily regulated from The study only used publicly available and remote sensing data a water resources point of view which can provide options for re- thus providing a common starting point for all stakeholders to ac- thinking current water management and development practices. cess the same information. In addition the study was supported by The potential productive uses of saved water are significant and a reference group comprised of representatives and observers from could be conjunctively managed across the sub-basins for a range governments and regional institutions. As part of the dialogue, of productive uses including hydropower, irrigated agriculture, the representatives and observers were asked to present examples salinity management, wetlands and sea coast ecosystem goods of hotspots that have a regional dimension. The target audience and services. and direct beneficiaries of the study are policy makers in the ET The study confirmed that there is significant opportunity to region. improve irrigated agriculture WUE and to use the saved water to The study’s hypothesis is that options exist to generate marginal increase agricultural yields in the sub-basins and/or increase hy- benefits from a cooperative approach to water resource manage- dropower production (non-consumptive use of water) and allocate ment and development and that presently the water resources are water to environmental flow and restoration of ecosystem goods managed sub-optimally from a regional perspective. A coopera- and services (consumptive use of water). However, this comes with tive approach to managing the water resources is necessary to a caveat: with little knowledge on the exact sources of inefficiency secure future benefits from the water resources and to maintain of agricultural water use, i.e. at farm level within each sub-basin, peace, stability and support socio-economic development in the choice of crops, irrigation canals, drainage systems; supporting region. To test the hypothesis, the study designed a basic Excel additional irrigated agriculture in the sub-basins with saved water based hydroeconomic simulation model, treating the basin as one will need further detailed work to identify the correct manage- unit and delineating 13 sub-basins. The model focuses on water ment choices. The ET region is naturally vulnerable to salinity use for hydropower, irrigated agriculture and environmental problems and there is a trend of increased salinity, impacting on flows and provides a macro-perspective on water use challenges the functioning of the aquatic ecosystems and on agricultural and opportunities. Water use efficiencyWUE ( ) improvements in yields. Without appropriate measures to address and mitigate irrigated agriculture were modelled as the main driver for water salinity, encouraging further expansion in agricultural activity saving in the 13 sub-basins. The model places the saved water in at present levels of efficiency, will exacerbate the problem. monetary terms by looking at the value of use in hydropower and Cooperative options that could be further explored in subse- irrigated agriculture. While the market and non-market benefits of quent collaborative work include a range of activities stemming environmental flows were not estimated as part of this study, the from institutional issues, capacity building and investments across shadow value of environmental flows are estimated to represent the short, medium and long term. the cost of diverting the saved water from other productive uses in the sub-basins. Using average market prices across the ET region, the baseline hydropower and irrigated agriculture values are USD 3.5 billion and USD 4.8 billion per annum respectively. Using the hydro- economic model, simulations