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Analysen Zum Direkten Und Indirekten Carbon- Leakage-Risiko Europäischer Industrieunternehmen Abschlussbericht

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Analysen Zum Direkten Und Indirekten Carbon- Leakage-Risiko Europäischer Industrieunternehmen Abschlussbericht CLIMATE CHANGE 32/2020 Analysen zum direkten und indirekten Carbon- Leakage-Risiko europäischer Industrieunternehmen Abschlussbericht Für Mensch & Umwelt CLIMATE CHANGE 32/2020 Ressortforschungsplan des Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit Forschungskennzahl 3715 42 501 0 FB000183 Analysen zum direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Risiko europäischer Industrieunternehmen Abschlussbericht von Benjamin Görlach, Matthias Duwe, Eike Karola Velten, Philipp Voß, Elizabeth Zelljadt, Arne Riedel, Robert Ostwald Ecologic Institute, Berlin Sebastian Voigt, Nikolas Wölfing, Robert Germeshausen ZEW – Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim, Mannheim Im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes Impressum Herausgeber Umweltbundesamt Wörlitzer Platz 1 06844 Dessau-Roßlau Tel: +49 340-2103-0 Fax: +49 340-2103-2285 [email protected] Internet: www.umweltbundesamt.de /umweltbundesamt.de /umweltbundesamt Durchführung der Studie: Ecologic Institut Pfalzburger Straße 43/44 10717 Berlin Abschlussdatum: November 2018 Redaktion: Fachgebiet V 3.3 Ökonomische Grundsatzfragen des Emissionshandels, Monitoring, Auswertung Alexandra Zirkel, Frank Gagelmann Publikationen als pdf: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen ISSN 1862-4359 Dessau-Roßlau, Oktober 2020 Die Verantwortung für den Inhalt dieser Veröffentlichung liegt bei den Autorinnen und Autoren. CLIMATE CHANGE Analysen zum direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Risiko europäischer Industrieunternehmen – Abschlussbericht Kurzbeschreibung Die Ergebnisse des Projekts „Zuteilung für Industrieanlagen im EU-ETS nach 2020 - Analyse und Weiterentwicklung der direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Regelung“ sind in diesem Gesamtbericht zusammengeführt. Ziel des Projekts war die methodisch und empirisch fundierte, zeitnahe und politikrelevante wissenschaftliche Analyse verschiedener Aspekten des Themas Carbon Leakage bei der anstehenden Weiterentwicklung des EU-Emissionshandels für die Zeit nach 2020, und insbesondere der Ausgestaltung der Carbon-Leakage-Regelungen für die vierte Handelsperiode (2020 – 2030) und darüber hinaus. Die Arbeiten wurden vom Ecologic Institut. und dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW) Mannheim durchgeführt. Im ersten der insgesamt drei Arbeitspakete wurde der Begriff „Carbon Leakage“ genauer geklärt. Insbesondere wurden die wesentlichen Einflussfaktoren bestimmt, die einen Einfluss auf das Carbon Leakage-Risiko haben. Innerhalb des zweiten Arbeitspakets wurde eine vergleichende Analyse der klimapolitischen Ambitionsniveaus der EU und ihrer größten industriellen Handelspartner-Länder erstellt. Sie liefert ein möglichst aktuelles und möglichst umfassendes Bild des klimabezogenen regulatorischen Rahmens für energieintensive Industrien in den wichtigsten Handelspartnerländern der EU. Im dritten Arbeitspaket wurden die indirekten CO2- Kosten von Industrieunternehmen näher betrachtet. Unter indirekten CO2-Kosten werden die zusätzlichen Kosten im Rahmen des EU ETS verstanden, die durch eine Überwälzung der in der Stromerzeugung anfallenden CO2-Kosten auf den Strompreis entstehen. Abstract This report presents the results of the project on " Free allocation for industrial installations in the EU ETS after 2020 - Analysis and further development of the direct and indirect carbon leakage regulations“. The aim of the project was to conduct methodologically and empirically sound, timely and policy-relevant scientific analysis on various aspects of the carbon leakage debate to assist the ongoing development of the EU emissions trading system for the period after 2020, and in particular on the design of carbon leakage regulations for the fourth trading period (2020 - 2030) and beyond.The work was carried out by Ecologic Institut and Centre for European Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW). In the first of a total of three work packages, the term "carbon leakage" was clarified more precisely. In particular, the main factors influencing carbon leakage were determined. Within the second work package, a comparative analysis of the climate policy ambition levels of the EU and its largest industrial trading partner countries was carried out. It provides as up-to-date and comprehensive a picture as possible of the climate- related regulatory framework for energy-intensive industries in the EU's most important trading partners. In the third work package, the indirect CO2 costs of industrial companies were examined. Indirect CO2 costs are the additional costs within the framework of the EU ETS incurred by passing on the CO2 costs incurred in electricity generation to the electricity price. 4 CLIMATE CHANGE Analysen zum direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Risiko europäischer Industrieunternehmen – Abschlussbericht Inhaltsverzeichnis Kurzbeschreibung .................................................................................................................................... 4 Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 4 1 Überblick über das Projekt und Zusammenfassung ........................................................................ 7 1.1 Arbeitspaket 1 – Begriffsabgrenzung „Carbon Leakage“ ........................................................ 7 1.2 Arbeitspaket 2 – Carbon Leakage Risks in a World of Converging Carbon Prices ................ 19 1.3 Arbeitspaket 3 – Indirektes Carbon Leakage ........................................................................ 23 2 Overview and summary of the project ......................................................................................... 29 2.1 Work package 1 – Definition of “carbon leakage” ................................................................ 29 2.2 Work package 2 – Carbon Leakage Risks in a World of Converging Carbon Prices .............. 39 2.3 Work package 3 – Indirect carbon leakage ........................................................................... 43 AP 1 - Begriffsabgrenzung “Carbon Leakage” ............................................................................... 49 3 Forms and Channels of Carbon Leakage ....................................................................................... 49 4 Investitionsverhalten in ausgewählten Industriebranchen im EU ETS – Empirische Analyse und Fallbeispiele ................................................................................................................................... 50 4.1 Einleitung und Hintergrund................................................................................................... 54 4.2 Empirische Befunde zur Investitionsleakage ........................................................................ 54 4.3 Umfragen unter Unternehmen ............................................................................................. 60 4.4 Literaturanalyse .................................................................................................................... 73 4.5 Fallbeispiele........................................................................................................................... 78 4.6 Schlussfolgerungen ............................................................................................................... 97 4.7 Quellenverzeichnis ................................................................................................................ 99 5 The Innovation Fund: how can it support low-carbon industry in Europe? ............................... 106 AP 2 – Carbon Leakage Risks in a World of Converging Carbon Prices .......................................... 107 6 Carbon Leakage Risks in a World of Converging Carbon Prices .................................................. 107 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 115 6.2 Carbon pricing worldwide ................................................................................................... 116 6.3 Trade profiles in selected carbon-intensive commodities .................................................. 117 6.4 Carbon pricing and other carbon constraints in the selected countries ............................ 123 6.5 Effective carbon leakage risks in a world of converging carbon prices .............................. 166 5 CLIMATE CHANGE Analysen zum direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Risiko europäischer Industrieunternehmen – Abschlussbericht 6.6 Changing policies, changing trade patterns – a dynamic analysis ...................................... 173 6.7 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 200 6.8 List of references ................................................................................................................. 206 A: Trade volumes and partners in the selected industrial sectors .................................................. 213 A.1 Trade volumes and partners in the iron and steel sector ................................................... 213 A.2 Trade volumes and partners in the chemical sector ........................................................... 214 A.3 Trade volumes and partners in the non-ferrous metals sector .......................................... 215 A.4 Trade volumes and partners in the cement and lime sector .............................................. 216 A.5 Trade volumes and partners in the glass sector ................................................................
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