THE ANSO REPORT -Not for Copy Or Sale
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The Afghanistan NGO Safety Office Issue: 62 16-30 November 2010 ANSO and our donors accept no liability for the results of any activity conducted or omitted on the basis of this report. THE ANSO REPORT -Not for copy or sale- Inside this Issue COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 1-7 While overall incident vol- organisers was to stage tion as, until recently, it had 8-13 Northern Region umes have continued to de- these protests on main remained relatively unaf- Western Region 14-16 cline as the year matures (see thoroughfares, resulting in fected by the conflict graph p.2), NGO incidents numerous road blockages which has embroiled the Eastern Region 16-21 have continued apace (see and hampering freedom of rest of the region. Direct Southern Region 22-26 graph p.8). A total of 9 movement. While it is attacks against the PRT NGO direct incidents from 8 likely that the volume of and a PDO compound, 27 ANSO Info Page separate provinces were re- such activities have peaked, along with separate IED corded this period, covering it is also probable that they strikes and ambushes 4 of the 5 regions (South will continue into the short against IMF elements, YOU NEED TO KNOW being the exception). This term as some of the ag- point to a concentrated data is a testament to the grieved have vowed to con- effort to intensify AOG • Destabilization of Jalalabad impact pervasive insecurity tinue their efforts until sat- actions and bring the con- City can have on the NGO com- isfaction is achieved. flict to the regional centres • Consistent NGO incident munity. These incidents doorstep. In response to volumes Suicide attack trends for were instituted by a variety of 2010 have remained consis- this, there has also been • Elections related civil unrest actors, including armed op- tent, averaging 11 incidents push back on the part of position, criminals, and in per month (see graph p.22). security forces, including • Inter-AOG conflicts one case, the beneficiaries Of note, this attack vector focused IMF operations themselves. Incident compo- along with a planned en- • Suicide attacks appears to be divorced sition was also diverse and from the typical ratio based hancement in the national included abductions, armed relationships noted between security force presence attacks, intimidation efforts within the city. individual tactics and over- and theft. all incident volumes. This The inclusion of an AOG, ANSO is supported by The Parliamentary electoral period recorded BBIED composed of 73 members, process has been an element related incidents in the in the reconciliation effort shaping the countrywide con- East, South and West. The reported from Baghlan text during the past few stand out incidents amongst signifies one of the largest months. The recent an- these included the double such event recorded. Typi- nouncement of disqualified BBIED attack against the cally, reconciled groups candidates has resulted in a ANP HQ in the provincial have consisted of small continuation of this dynamic, capital of Paktika and the scale units, with the major- particularly the latter half of detonation of a planned ity of these occurring in the the period. Demonstrations attacker during an arrest Western and Northern Re- on behalf of these disquali- attempt in Ghor. It would gions. In the West, these fied candidates occurred appear that the introduction reconciliation efforts have countrywide, in many cases of this tactic into Ghor is actually become a source of resulting in multi-day, pri- part of deliberate effort to insecurity, as disparate ele- marily small scale (with the raise the armed oppositions ments engage in politically exception of Samangan), and profile in this province. or philosophically moti- peaceful gatherings. A delib- The events in Jalalabad City vated armed clashes. erate tactic on the part of the this period warrant atten- THE ANSO REPORT Page 2 NGO Incidents KABUL Year to Date 8 KABUL 50 This Report Period 0 Police forces in pursuit of AOG 40 and ACG networks (in particular Surobi, and another IED explo- 30 abduction gangs) maintained a sion on the link road between 20 Karte Naw/PD 8 and Bagrami). sustained tempo of operations 10 both in the capital and rural dis- In Karte Naw, two suspected 0 tricts, representing 60% of the AOG members were interrupted combined 31 incidents recorded while emplacing an IED under a during this cycle (as of 28th of No- stationary ANA truck. Quick to vember). The risks peculiar to jump on their motorcycle and KABUL AOG KABUL Crime drive away, the two individuals NGO safety in the Kabul envi- vated. ronment are currently assessed as became involved in a vehicular low to moderate. Surobi remains accident which triggered the ex- Several sources have also identified the recent the primary area of concern to plosion of the device. As of the appointment of a new AOG Shadow Gover- NGOs, due to overt AOG activity time of reporting, reports were nor for Kabul Province. If proved true, such a and its impact on overland access also received about three separate situation would most likely increase the men- towards Jalalabad. The announce- instances of SAF targeting PSCs tioned AOGs’ leadership motivation to stage a ment of the final election results and IMFs convoys along the Jala- spectacular attack in Kabul in order to mark (except for Ghazni) was followed labad Road, and a local dispute the appointment. However, more likely than by a series of peaceful demonstra- between two villages in Surobi close range and complex attacks, which require tions in Kabul, called, as in the whose residents are involved in reconnaissance & planning, logistical prepara- previous cycle, by the Union of the Surobi Dam construction tions and clearly allocated resources, an IDF the Wolesi Jirga Candidates. works, interpreted by other attack against a high-profile venue would be a sources as AOG’s abduction of 18 more feasible option, though this would put Despite the usual high volumes of workers. The circumstances of the the residents of the neighbourhoods adjacent threat reporting, Kabul City and latter incidents are yet to be con- to such location at the mercy of AOG IDF the rural districts remained calm, firmed. Lastly, on 26 November, a operators. The overwhelming majority of this with AOG actions having materi- newly appointed NDS liaison offi- year’s IDF attacks in Kabul employed weapons alized in 3 confirmed direct inci- cer to the PD 15 ANP HQ was such as 107 mm rockets, which rendered the dents (2 close range attacks in stabbed to death by unknown attacks inherently imprecise. Prominent loca- attackers. However, a clear link to tions included KAIA, Kabul Polytechnic Insti- KEY THREATS & CONCERNS AOG motivation behind the at- tute, and IMF facilities in various locations in Civil unrest tack has not been established and PD 9 and 10 as well as in Darulaman. Criminality the suspicion remains that the Spectacular attacks murder was not politically moti- Total AOG Initiated Attacks per Month - 2010 (Close Range + Indirect Fire + Suicide Attacks) 1800 1600 1541 1400 1319 1326 1366 1200 1181 1096 1000 972 800 853 600 613 658 523 400 200 0 2 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC THE ANSO REPORT Page 3 NGO Incidents KAPISA KAPISA Year to Date 2 50 This Report Period 0 Following a lull in armed escala- 40 tions in the first half of Novem- swathes of the said districts, and 30 ber, when the preparations for occasional strikes by the French 20 Special Forces. In such circum- Eid apparently outweighed the 10 war game, Kapisa returned to the stances, conflict spill-over into the 0 low-intensity warfare typical of western parts of Kapisa remains a the previous periods. Out of 5 possibility, reminiscent of the re- reported incidents, all but one cent AOG influx into Kohi Safid occurred in the eastern districts, (Parwan) from Tagab. In counter- KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime including all three AOG-initiated point to this, however, the first 11 months of 2010 saw a combined last year. Overall, Kapisa witnessed a 10% in- attacks (one kidnapping in Nijrab, crease in AOG-initiated attacks in comparison two close range ambushes of 12 AOG-initiated incidents in the western districts as opposed to 20 to the same period last year, and a 17% in- IMF/ANSF patrols in Tagab and crease when compared to 2008. an additional roadside IED dis- incidents for the same period in covery in the same district). Con- 2009. Henceforth, while the risks Population-centric efforts continued by pro- struction projects along strategic of NGOs exposure to hostile ac- GOA forces, in an attempt to wrestle Tagab routes in Nijrab, Tagab and Ala- tion in the eastern districts are district out of AOG control. Besides the train- say represent the main conflict currently assessed as substantial, ing of regular police forces, IMF mentoring hotspots. Nevertheless, AOG the western districts represent a units have been engaged in recruitment and have demonstrated their capacity favourable environment for NGO training of local militias, hired to assist ANP as to challenge the pro-GOA struc- operations. However, the Shukhi an auxiliary force in policing the roads in the tures right in the DACs. The vast Area of Mahmudi Raqi remains of district. The deployment of such militias has majority of AOG attacks remain concern for its explosive mixture been envisaged mainly in the areas where IMF- close-range assaults (64%) and of andiwal networks, conservative led infrastructure rehabilitation is underway. stand-off IED or IDF (35%) at- clerics and income-oriented crimi- Allocated to particular checkpoints, the ser- tacks against security installations nal elements active locally, each of vicemen undergo a six-day training course and patrols in the aforementioned the structures occasionally hosting ranging from weapons’ maintenance to small- districts.