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In-SHUCK-Ch FSR PIEVC Case Study

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In-SHUCK-Ch FSR PIEVC Case Study Analysis of a British Columbia Resource Road’s Vulnerability to Climate Change: in-SHUCK-ch Forest Service Road PIEVC case study Technical report no. 30 – June 2018 Allan Bradley, R.P.F., P.Eng. Alex Forrester, R.P.F., P.Eng. NON-RESTRICTED DISTRIBUTION fpinnovations.ca FPInnovations is a not-for-profit world- 301011965: Adapting roads to climate leading R&D institute that specializes in change the creation of scientific solutions in Technical Report no. 30 support of the Canadian forest sector’s global competitiveness and responds to Abstract This report presents a case study of the vulnerability the priority needs of its industry members to climate change of infrastructure on the in-SHUCK-ch Forest Service Road using the Public and government partners. It is ideally Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee positioned to perform research, innovate, (PIEVC) protocol. This case study provided analysis of the risks and opportunities faced by the road, and deliver state-of-the-art solutions for recommendations to mitigate the identified risks, and established a benchmark for future iterations of the every area of the sector’s value chain, process with resource roads. from forest operations to consumer and industrial products. Its R&D laboratories Acknowledgements are located in Québec, Montréal, and This project was financially supported by NRCan Vancouver, and it has technology Canadian Forest Service and by the B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands and Resource Operations & Rural transfer offices across Canada. For more Development under the FPInnovations – B.C. Agreement. information about FPInnovations, visit: www.fpinnovations.ca. The authors would like to thank Brian Chow, chief engineer of FLNRORD, for his considerable involvement and direction in this project. Follow us on: Reviewers Brian Chow, P. Eng., Chief Engineer, FLNRORD Dave Spittlehouse, Climatologist, Climate Change and Integrated Planning Branch, FLNRORD Gino Fournier, P. Eng., Leader - Coastal Engineering Group, FLNRORD Malcolm Schulz, R.P.F., Engineering Officer, Sea-to-Sky District, FLNRORD Gene MacInnes, R.P.F., MacInnes and Associates Jim Barnes, Engineering Services, B.C. Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Contact Allan Bradley, P. Eng., R.P.F. Roads and Infrastructure (604) 222-5667 [email protected] © 2018 FPInnovations. All rights reserved. Unauthorized copying or redistribution prohibited. Disclosure for Commercial Application: If you require assistance to implement these research findings, please contact FPInnovations at [email protected]. Table of contents 1. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 5 2. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Project objective ................................................................................................................................. 6 Notice to reader .............................................................................................................................. 6 Climate change in British Columbia .................................................................................................... 7 Analysis of infrastructure vulnerability to climate change .................................................................... 7 3. Site description ............................................................................................................................... 8 Recent weather-induced damage ..................................................................................................... 10 Climatology predictions .................................................................................................................... 12 4. PIEVC analysis of the in-SHUCK-ch FSR corridor ........................................................................ 16 Analysis process .............................................................................................................................. 16 Outcome: highly vulnerable components .......................................................................................... 21 Highly -vulnerable to extreme temperature ................................................................................... 21 Highly -vulnerable to extreme precipitation ................................................................................... 21 Outcome: components for further consideration ............................................................................... 22 Temperature-vulnerable components for further consideration ..................................................... 22 Precipitation-vulnerable components for further consideration ...................................................... 24 5. Recommendations ........................................................................................................................ 25 Streamlining the PIEVC process ................................................................................................... 25 Climate adaptation responses for the in-SHUCK-ch FSR ............................................................. 25 6. References ................................................................................................................................... 28 7. Appendix A. PIEVC Process Analysis of in-SHUCK-ch FSR Corridor Infrastructure and Terrain .. 29 Spreadsheet format ...................................................................................................................... 29 8. Appendix B. Project team ............................................................................................................. 5 List of tables Table 1. In-SHUCK-ch FSR changes in mean seasonal precipitation rom 1971-2000 levels to 2041 .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Table 2. In-SHUCK-ch FSR historical and predicted mean annual and storm precipitation ................. 14 Table 3. In-SHUCK-ch FSR 20-year return period temperature extremes (rcp 8.5 projections) ........... 14 Table 4. Specific climatic parameters .................................................................................................. 18 Table 5. Historical and predicted threshold values for various climatic parameters ............................. 19 FPInnovations Page 3 List of figures Figure 1. Average warming predicted for B.C. over this century. ............................................................ 7 Figure 2. (Right) Map of the in-SHUCK-ch FSR (red triangles denote recreational sites).. ..................... 8 Figure 3. (Above Left) The in-SHUCK-ch FSR intersects Highway 99 at 0 KM at the north end of Lillooet Lake. ......................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 4. The in-SHUCK-ch FSR follows the path of power lines south to Port Douglas (left). ............... 9 Figure 5. Near KM 70 of the in-SHUCK-ch FSR, the Lillooet River enters a large delta at the north end of Harrison Lake. ................................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 6. Flooding of the FSR at the south end of the Lillooet Lake (left), and ice flows down rock cuts and onto the FSR cause dangerous driving conditions (right). ............................................................. 10 Figure 7. Large culvert washout (left) and bridge abutment undercutting (right). .................................. 11 Figure 8. Looking upstream (left) and colour-coded survey (right) of a debris torrent at Heather Jean Estates. ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 9. Rocks and water fall onto the in-SHUCK-ch FSR (left), and narrowed road width due to fill slope failures (right). ............................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 10. Recent capital projects raised previously flooded roadbed near KM 24 (left) and widened narrow sections of roadway (right). ...................................................................................................... 12 Figure 11. Historical annual precipitation in the in-SHUCK-ch FSR corridor. ........................................ 13 Figure 12. Historical (1971 to 2000) mean annual maximum (left) and minimum (right) temperatures in the in-SHUCK-ch area ......................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 13. Historical and predicted number of snowfall events exceeding 100 mm per day ................. 15 Figure 14. The number and intensity of snow events are predicted to decrease dramatically ............. 16 Figure 15. General flow chart for the PIEVC process. .......................................................................... 17 FPInnovations Page 4 1. Executive Summary British Columbia has very varied and complex geography and the predicted climate changes over the Province are equally complex and varied. Climate change models for B.C. predict that by the 2050s the mean annual temperature will increase by 1° to 4° C. Along with the increased
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