2.9

2.8 SHEEP AND WOOL

2.7 SITUATION IN CALIFORNIA, 1950

EDWIN C. VOORHIES AND ROBERT W. RUDD

2.6 CIRCULAR 399 OCTOBER, 1950

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

Between 1942 and 1950, Cali- IB fornia's Stock Sheep Numbers

Dropped from 2,977,000 to 1 ,602,- 000 A Decline of Almost 50%

1946 1948 1950

CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION • THE COLLEGE

OF AGRICULTURE • UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY THi SHEEP INDUSTRY in California, the nation, and the world has been marked by changes. Those that have taken place in the past 10 years are stressed in this cir- cular because they have had a vital effect on the California sheepman.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED WHAT IT MEANS

The following changes have affected In California and the country as a the sheep industry over the past 10 whole, stock sheep numbers have years: dropped almost 50 per cent between 1. Land has been used for crops 1942 and 1950. They are now at rather than for grazing. their lowest point in 83 years. There 2. During and immediately following has been a heavy liquidation of the war, cattle and farming were foundation flocks. more profitable than sheep. 3. Skilled sheep labor has been scarce and high priced. 4. Wool prices were relatively low, and the wool outlook was uncertain. 5. Grazing allotments in the national forests had been reduced. 6. Uncontrolled dogs and predatory animals were problems in some sec- tions.

Since 1940, California's population This increased market puts the state's has increased by approximately 50 livestock producers in a more ad- per cent, largely in industrial areas vantageous position, but California of deficit livestock supplies. must also ship in additional supplies of livestock including sheep and lambs.

Livestock supplies rose during the Producer prices for lambs during the war and then dropped. Good crops war rose more slowly than did those and favorable prices in 1948 caused for cattle and hogs. Lamb prices have a rise in hog and cattle numbers, but been fairly steady at relatively high sheep continued to go down. This levels since the war. decline apparently reached its low- est point by January 1 , 1 950.

Per-capita meat consumption in the There was more disposable income United States was higher in 1940- than there were goods and services. 1947 than for any similar period in In view of unsettled world conditions, the past 50 years. This was the re- it appears that this relationship sult of high employment, high wages, would continue. and high average disposable in- come. WHAT HAS HAPPENED WHAT IT MEANS

Sheep and cattle compete for range Increases in the state's sheep num- and pasture in most areas of the bers may not be rapid. A major prob- state. When sheep and beef cattle lem is replacements for flocks that numbers are added, the total has have been depleted. While sizes of not changed very much for 30 or 40 flocks may increase, the holding back years. of ewe lambs will keep down pro- duction for some time to come.

Shorn wool production in the United For a few years at least, the United States in 1949 was at its lowest point States will be forced to use stored since 1 879. California's present wool supplies of wool, if available, or to production is the smallest in recent increase its wool imports. years.

If the government's goal of 360 mil- To reach such a goal, there would lion pounds of shorn wool per year have to be a national increase of 20 is to be reached, there may have to million sheep, one million of which be considerable government encour- would be in California. This goal is agement for the sheep industry. certainly not in sight at present.

The future of the wool textile in- Even if there is government support dustry in Europe and elsewhere and for the sheep industry, the United a rearmament program at home and States will have to import wool to abroad will have a powerful influ- meet its needs. A strong foreign de- ence on the sheep industry. mand for wool will mean even greater encouragement for domestic prices.

WHAT OF THE FUTURE?

Forecasting is hazardous even when all pertinent data are available. Apparently, from 1950 on, factors favoring expansion in the sheep industry will outweigh those working against it. Supplies of lamb for the next few years will be rela- tively light. There has been a fairly strong demand for wool since the war. Production and marketing quotas for alternative or competing enterprises will probably favor sheep raising. So long as wool production is low and no suitable substitute appears, it seems likely that wool will receive government support. Without doubt, world production of wool is rising and, barring drought and other uncertainties, it will soon top prewar production marks. There are offsetting factors which cannot be ignored. There has been a persistent shortage of skilled sheep labor in some areas. The growth of noxious brush on rangeland in California as well as in other areas has been rapid, but some progress is being made in solving this problem. There is a growing dog problem in heavily populated areas, and predatory animals are a problem in other sections.

THE AUTHORS: Mr. Voorhies is Professor of Agricultural Economics and Economist in the Experiment Station and on the Giannini Foundation, Berkeley. Robert W. Rudd was Research Assistant on the Gian- nini Foundation. (Resigned June 30, 1948.) SHEEP AND WOOL SITUATION IN CALIFORNIA, 1950 Edwin C Voorhies and Robert W. Rudd

World-wide happenings affect Califor- only a small part of the total meat con- nia's sheep industry. The state produces sumed by the American people. There- only a fraction of the nation's supply of fore, what happens to the supply and lambs and wool and consumes but a small demand for other meats and for poultry part of its total lamb and mutton. But a and fish vitally affects lamb and mutton. large part of the state's wool is sold in Wool, the secondary product, has been a market over 3,000 miles away. While of less value. Not only is there competi- the nation's demand for lamb and mutton tion between domestic and foreign wools, has usually been met by domestic pro- but also between wool and other fibers- duction, part of the wool for the nation's vegetable (cotton), regenerated (rayon), mills has had to be imported. and synthetic (nylon). The economic problems of the sheep- Even in a brief economic outlook, man are difficult to analyze and under- there are a number of factors influencing stand because his is a joint-product in- lamb, mutton, and wool supplies which dustry—meat and wool. Lamb, the main will assist the California grower in plac- product of the California sheepman, com- ing himself in the supply picture. Most of petes for the consumer's food dollar not these factors are beyond his control, as only in California but also in areas out- are those which affect the demand for his side of the state. Lamb and mutton are products.

SHEEP NUMBERS

Since 1942, sheep numbers in the United States have dropped to their lowest point in history. California sheep production has reflected this drastic change.

Distribution.—Estimates are made of are added to that, the percentage is 64. sheep and lamb numbers in the nation Sheep raising is the most "western" of the and in the separate states on January 1 of nation's animal industries. One of the each year. These estimates are based on a chief functions of sheep—together with census that is taken once every five years. cattle— is to utilize the forage produced

However, unless the census is always on 60 to 75 per cent of the land area of taken on the same date, the figures are not the West. directly comparable. Of special interest Mere numbers divided among the po- to the California grower is the concentra- litical subdivisions offer a somewhat dis- tion in the "West." On January 1, 1950, torted view of distribution. In relation to estimates placed 83 per cent of the na- land area, numbers vary from less than tion's sheep west of the Mississippi River. one sheep per square mile, in the south- Texas and the nine mountain states ac- eastern states, to 25 in Texas and 30 in counted for 55 per cent of the nation's Ohio. Numbers per square mile are larg- total; when the three Pacific Coast states est in the Rocky Mountain states and the [4] .

FIGURE 1—SHEEP AND LAMBS PER SQUARE MILE, 1950

Corn Belt including its northern and east- longed and drastic in history. A drop of 45 ern approaches (fig. 1). California is per cent (some 25 million head) brought slightly above average. the total to the lowest point recorded In relation to the human population, (since 1867)—approximately 30.8 mil- the Rocky Mountain states, followed by lion on January 1, 1950 (table 1). Texas and the Great Plains states, stand In 1930 the West (mountain and Pa- out (fig. 2). The states east of the Mis- cific Coast states) counted about 54 per sissippi have a small sheep population in cent of all the country's sheep and lambs. relation to the number of humans. Cali- The west North Central states reported 14 fornia has a per-capita sheep population per cent, and Texas slightly over 12. The which is under the average of the entire remaining sheep were scattered except country. A similar situation prevails for for a considerable concentration in Ohio. the Pacific Coast states considered as a A change occurred in the relative po- whole. sition of these areas during the 1930's Changes in Numbers and Distri- and through the first years of World War bution.—Sheep numbers have see-sawed II. By 1945, the West's percentage was so that it is difficult to detect any exact slightly over 41, that of the west North regularity in these movements, especially Central states, 21, and of Texas, 21. since 1923. Between 1923 and 1934, sheep In spite of the eight-year decline, the in the United States grew from 37 to 54 western states still held their relative posi- million head. Between 1934 and 1937, tion. On January 1, 1950, they had an there was a drop of about 3 million. Then estimated 42 per cent of the country's an upward turn brought the figure to ap- sheep. Texas maintained its relative im- proximately 56.2 million by January 1, portance with 22 per cent. The west North 1942—a record in recent decades (fig. 3) Central states dropped to 18 per cent, In the last eight years, the decline in reflecting, in part, the economic competi- numbers has been one of the most pro- tion with crops especially. [5] : :

FIGURE 2—SHEEP AND LAMBS PER PERSON, 1950

HxVr?^ ^&— w ~x y^wVr

^rHW IE

Sk . ''//////M,,,,. HH .•^[///////////////^^^ ^^^v. — ^-^ "?

LEGEND: ^ll||p " .'.' wMM^Mfi Sheep per pe f sori^^*^^^^^^^^^^^^P

| Over 1 sheep i§§ll§§§§§il§l

HI " -1 " *WL

.1 1 1 Under ^^

Table 1 —AH Sheep and Stock Sheep in California and the

United States on January 1

Relative changes

All sheep Stock sheep Period

Cali- United Cali- United Cali- United Cali- United fornia States fornia States fornia States fornia States

Thousands 1935-1939 - 100

Averages 1925-1929 2,952 42,992 2,854 38,485 94 84 94 85 1930-1934 3,097 53,051 3,019 47,305 98 104 100 104 1935-1939 3,150 51,241 3,021 45,452 100 100 100 100 1940-1944 2,977 53,634 2,854 47,104 95 105 94 104 1945-1949 2,168 38,651 1,962 32,992 69 75 65 73

Annual 1945 2,587 46,520 2,445 39,609 82 91 81 87 1946 2,298 42,436 2,078 35,599 73 83 69 78 1947 2,117 37,818 1,912 32,125 67 74 63 71 1948 1,977 34,827 1,721 29,976 63 68 57 66 1949 1,850 31,654 1,652 27,651 59 62 55 61 1950 1,769 30,797 1,602 27,064 56 60 53 60

[6] In discussing numbers of any class of uary, 1950, totals of meat animals were livestock or poultry, competing livestock 17 per cent above the prewar figures, and or poultry must be considered if the eco- those of poultry, 18 per cent above. nomic position of the industry is to be Trends in California Sheep Num- understood clearly. During the recent bers.—Along with cattle, sheep formed period of decline in sheep, total meat ani- the basis of California's first commercial mals reached the highest average (1942- agricultural industry. Sheep raising was 1947) of any period in the country's his- well established before the state's inten- tory. At the same time, the number of all sive agricultural development. By 1876, classes of livestock on the farms and sheep and lamb numbers totaled 7,700,- ranges was no higher than it had been in 000. With the increase in farms, in variety the 1916-1921 period. The explanation of crops, and in intensity of agricultural of this apparent contradiction is that production, sheep numbers dropped to horses and mules have been replaced by approximately 2 million in 1915. During tractors. The decrease of between 18 and World War I, there was an increase of 19 million animal units "in horses and almost a half million, followed by a de- mules" from 1920-1950 released feed crease that brought the tally back to the land for use in the production of other 2-million mark. Almost a million head livestock and crops. were added between 1922-1931. This Livestock and poultry numbers de- 3-million level had not been reached since clined for five years from an all-time peak before the turn of the century. With minor reached on January 1, 1944. In 1949, yearly changes, numbers hovered about numbers turned upward so that the Jan- the 3-million mark for 11 years. During

FIGURE 3—ALL SHEEP AND LAMBS ON FARMS, UNITED STATES

I I Rest of U.S. North Central States Texas Mountain States Pacific Coast

1950 .

the national decline of 1942-1950, Cali- for 30 or 40 years, with no pronounced fornia slid to below the 2-million mark— trend. While there is competition among 1,769,000 being the January 1, 1950, all classes of livestock as well as between

estimate. crops and livestock, there is a fairly dis- With the ebb and flow of numbers have tinct relationship between beef cattle and come changes in the relative distribution sheep. They have competed for certain of

of the nation's sheep, and these changes the forage and feed areas and there is a alter California's position in the nation's tendency for stock sheep to decline as beef sheep setup. Among the states, California cattle increase. ranked after Texas and Wyoming. Texas, In California's Central Valley, rela-

on January 1, 1950, accounted for close tively high wartime prices for grains to 22 per cent of all sheep and 25 per cent (barley, rice, wheat), cotton, potatoes, of the stock sheep. California claimed flax, and cantaloupe forced sheep out. almost 6 per cent of both. Relatively lower prices for these crops The Central Valley and the North probably would lead to an increase in the Coast counties had 86 per cent of the land available for sheep. state's sheep and lambs in 1945. The There are some areas where cattle state's distribution pattern had changed definitely should be raised instead of only slightly during the previous 20 sheep on account of forage type. In parts years (fig. 4). The North Coast area of Sonoma and Mendocino counties, gained relatively—chiefly in Humboldt however, the reverse is true and in both and Mendocino counties. There was a counties it is difficult to substitute one slight relative decline in the Sacramento class of stock for the other. Such areas Valley. constitute but a small fraction of the total In California, the combined numbers range land, and on improved and irri- (in animal units) of cattle and sheep gated pastures, sheep and cattle can com- raised have remained rather stationary pete almost anywhere.

COMPOSITION OF SHEEP NUMBERS

California has probably passed its low point in sheep numbers. One indi-

cation of an upward trend is the number of breeding ewes, which has been increasing slightly since 1949.

Estimates of sheep numbers on farms California follows the national trend in and ranges are divided into those for (1) stock sheep except that the state's rela- stock sheep and lambs and (2) feeder tive numbers, compared with the prewar sheep and lambs. years, dropped to even lower levels. De- Stock Sheep.—Stock sheep trends clines in numbers, both in the nation and are similar to those for all sheep since, in the state, have been more rapid than on the average, they constitute about those of "all sheep" because of numbers 90 per cent of all sheep in the nation on of breeding ewes liquidated (table 1) January 1. During the eight-year period A peak in the nation's stock sheep was 1942-1950, the nation's stock sheep de- reached on January 1, 1942. Eight years clined to a point where numbers were the later, numbers had declined 45 per cent. lowest since records have been kept, in- The California decline was equally drastic dicating a heavy liquidation of founda- —46 per cent (fig. 5) . In the North Cen- tion flocks. tral states, there was a drop of over 53 [8] FIGURE 4—STOCK SHEEP IN CALIFORNIA, 1950, AND RELATIVE CHANGE, 1942-1950

20,000 stock sheep in area

LEGEND: 1950 as per cent of 1942 ] 80 or higher 60 - 79

40 - 59 Less than 40

per cent. The greater concentrations of occur until January 1, 1943, and the de- farm crops in this latter area were affected cline lasted only six years, reaching its not only by relatively larger numbers of low point on January 1, 1949. other livestock but also by the crop situ- Stock sheep are divided into ( 1 ) lambs ation as well. In Texas, the peak did not and (2) animals one year old and over. [9] FIGURE 5—STOCK SHEEP NUMBERS AND SHORN WOOL PRODUCTION, CALIFORNIA MILLION MILLION POUNDS SHEEP WOOL

3.50 35.0

3.00 30.0 SHEEP

2.50 -25.0

2.00 -20.0

1.50 - 15.0

1.00 i i i i i '' 10.0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

Lambs are further divided into (a) ewes drastic 1942-1950 decline, the percent- and (b) rams and wethers combined. The age on January 1 dropped to 14 or 15. older animals are reported as ewes, as It would appear that the decline began to rams, and as wethers. There has been a slow up in 1949, and reached a distinct noticeable down trend in wether numbers turning point by 1950. Ewe lambs on in the past 25 years. From 1920 to 1934, January 1, 1950, rose to approximately there were never fewer than 1 million 18 per cent of the older ewes (table 2). wethers over a year old. actual An and Percentages of ewes over one year and relative decline brought estimates below of ewe lambs, in the state's stock sheep 350,000 in 1950. Rams and wethers to- totals, were estimated at 81 and 14, re- gether apparently account for about 8 per spectively, on January 1, 1950. (National cent of the total stock sheep. figures were 77 and 15 per cent, respec- From the standpoint of predicting fu- tively.) In 1920, the estimated percent- ture trends, the numbers of ewes are im- ages in the state were 68 and 25. A part portant. Those over a year old bear a close of the movement toward present percent- relationship to the lambs saved, while ewe ages occurred during World War I years, lambs indicate some trend in breeding when a radical change was taking place flocks. When breeding flocks are decreas- in a large number of flocks. Formerly, ing, smaller than normal numbers of ewe resulted in a summer or fall lambs are held back, while the reverse production occurs when breeding flocks are increas- weaned lamb. The change to a lamb ing. dropped in the winter and marketed in During the 1922-1931 period, when the early spring has brought about not California sheep were increasing, ewe only changes in breeding time but also lambs constituted about 20 or 21 per in the flock composition, breed and type cent of the ewes over a year old. In the used, feeding practices, etc. (see p. 11).

[10] :

In recent years the number of rams high level continued through 1946. Un- and wethers in the state has been esti- doubtedly a considerable part of this in- mated at between 4 and 5 per cent of the crease was the result of price stimulation. flocks, as compared with an estimated 6 Even after a decline in all sheep started in or 7 per cent in the early 1930's. Since 1942, numbers on feed were high. Ani- estimates are made of wethers over a mals were held back for feeding and year old, indications are that the decline slaughtering rather than for breeding. has been far greater in this group than in The decline in breeding sheep soon was the others over the past 20 years. It would reflected in numbers on feed, resulting in seem that in the "wether and ram" lamb the January 1, 1950, figure—the smallest classification, wether lambs would show on record. a greater than average decline for the Feeding is carried on largely in ( 1 ) the same period. western states plus North Dakota, Okla- Sheep and Lambs on Feed.—On homa, and Texas, and (2) the Corn Belt January 1, 1950, approximately 3,733,- states. In the first area, over 50 per cent 000, or 12.1 per cent, of the nation's of all sheep were reported on feed in the sheep and lambs were being fed for mar- 1925-1929 period. Before World War II, ket (table 3). Over the past few decades, this figure had dropped to only slightly an increasing relative number have been below 45 per cent, while in the most re- fed. Additions from the 1920's to the cent years it has averaged below 38 per 1930's brought even larger numbers into cent. Animals on feed in the Corn Belt the feed lots. On January 1, 1943, almost states have, on the other hand, become

7,000,000 were reported on feed. This relatively more numerous. On January 1,

Table 2—Stock Sheep in California

Lambs Over one year

Period Total Wethers and Ewes rams Ewes Rams Wethers

Thousands

Averages 1930-1934... 370 60 2,484 76 29 3,019 1935-1939... 390 48 2,484 76 23 3,021 1940-1944... 340 53 2,369 72 21 2,854 1945-1949... 252 37 1,613 51 8 1,962

Annual: 1940 292 49 2,452 74 23 2,890 1941 369 50 2,403 74 23 2,919 1942 380 49 2,451 74 23 2,977 1943 335 46 2,353 71 23 2,828 1944 322 70 2,188 65 13 2,658 1945 296 56 2,021 60 12 2,445 1946 278 39 1,698 54 9 2,078 1947 254 36 1,562 52 8 1,912 1948 211 29 1,428 47 6 1,721 1949 221 25 1,357 44 5 1,652 1950 231 20 1,303 43 5 1,602

[11] : :

1925-1929, the Corn Belt average num- the sheep feeding has been done in the ber on feed was slightly over 2.3 million Delta, the Sacramento Valley, and the as compared with 2.4 in the western area. Oakdale area—in central and northern The averages for the January 1, 1945- California—and in the Imperial Valley in 1949 period in the two areas were 3.5 southern California. and 2.1 million, respectively. The rela- Although the state's sheep-feeding op- tively small January 1, 1950, total was erations have been relatively less impor- divided as follows: 2.4 million in the tant than the nation's, they have tended Corn Belt, 1.3 million in the West. to increase since the early 1930's. Much Colorado and Nebraska have usually of this increase has resulted from the use ranked first and second although in some of irrigated pastures. This may be one of years (1945-1947) Kansas, with her the reasons for reduced shipments of wheat stubble fields, has been in first lambs eastward from the early lamb dis- place. tricts. There is lively competition between If the seven western states—California, cattle and sheep for irrigated pastures. Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Idaho, This was illustrated in 1949 when Ladino Utah, and Arizona—are considered as a clover growers—on account of high spring whole, indications are that feeding opera- lamb prices—turned from lambs to cattle tions have increased relatively over the past 25 years. North Dakota, Oklahoma, to utilize the feed. There is also compe- and Texas have, on the other hand, done tition for feed between dairy cattle and relatively less feeding. poultry, with the state unable to meet all California attaches more importance to the demand for coarse grains. The use of various agricultural by-products, such as feeding operations (table 3) . Pasture and sheep conditions, feed supplies, profits, sugar beets, and the development of irri- and general economic conditions are a gated pastures are two methods by which few of the many factors which affect some increased feeding might be carried sheep (and cattle) on feed. The bulk of on.

Table 3—Sheep on Feed on January 1

Period United States California United States California

Thousands of sheep Per cent of total

Averages 1925-1929 4,507 98 10.5 3.3 1930-1934 5,746 78 10.8 2.5 1935-1939 5,789 129 11.3 4.1 1940-1944 6,530 123 12.2 4.1 1945-1949 5,687 204 14.7 7.6

Annual 1945 6,911 142 14.9 5.5 1946 6,837 220 16.1 9.6 1947 5,693 205 15.1 9.7 1948 4,851 256 13.9 12.9 1949 4,003 198 12.6 10.7 1950 3,733 167 12.1 9.4

[12] Three types of feeding have been used and birdsfoot trefoil; (3) feeding on for California's winter lambs in recent green alfalfa pastures. The latter type of years: (1) late fall and early winter feeding is prevalent in the Imperial Val- feeding (a) on beet tops and (b) in feed ley where lambs are marketed from De- lots; (2) winter feeding on Ladino clover cember through March.

PRODUCERS AND SIZE OF OPERATIONS In California, there are probably fewer sheep per farm than there were in 1945. In the sheep-raising areas of the state, the north coast section has changed the least, both in sheep per farm and in total numbers of stock sheep.

Number of Producers.—From 1900 Central averaged 53, the east South Cen- to 1940, between 9 and 10 per cent of all tral, 38, the New England states, only 14. farmers and ranchers in the United States In making comparisons it is customary reported keeping sheep or lambs. There to divide the country into the range and was a change during the World War II native sheep states. The thirteen range years. In 1945 there were 128,000 fewer states, including Texas, have approxi- farmers and ranchers reporting sheep mately two thirds of the nation's sheep. than there were in 1940—a drop from 9.6 Here the enterprise is more often large per cent to 7.8. While data are not avail- and specialized. Although these states re- able since 1945, it is highly probable that ported less than 21 per cent of the farms the number has declined further. keeping sheep, in 1945, they accounted Between 5 and 6 per cent of all farmers for over 66 per cent of the sheep and and ranchers in California have reported lambs reported. The average number of sheep, and the state does not reflect the sheep and lambs on these farms and marked change apparent in the country ranches was 291. as a whole— at least not in the census of In the range states, use of arid and 1945. There were changes within areas semiarid public grazing lands especially, of the state over the 20 years ending in and of land in the national forests, is of 1925. For example, relatively more farms concern to the sheepman as well as to the and ranches in the north and central coast general public. Aridity, elevation, and areas reported sheep, while the Sacra- extreme variations in rainfall are under- mento Valley showed a slight downward lying reasons why most of the public trend. land of the nation is in the West. The

Numbers per Farm or Operation. major part of this land is used in connec- Except for the war years, there has not tion with farms or with ranching units been any pronounced trend in the num- which have valley or irrigated farms that ber of sheep per farm reporting sheep. supply a considerable part of the winter In 1945, however, the national average feed. for farms reporting sheep was 90—an in- Exact comparisons of numbers of stock crease of 14 over the 1935 figures. Such grazed in the different years are diffi- comparisons are not very meaningful cult to evaluate since weather, feed, and unless the country is divided into its other factors make for varying lengths major areas. Under such a division, the of grazing periods and varying degrees of mountain states reported 456 sheep per support for stock. farm in 1945. The west South Central and In the range states, since 1940, sheep Pacific Coast states followed with 234 numbers in the grazing districts and in and 210, respectively. The west North the national forests apparently have de- [13] clined. Cattle have become more numer- With the many specialized sheep enter- ous because of a change in the economic prises in the state, it would be expected relationships between the two classes of that the number of sheep per farm report- stock. Many migrant sheepmen have been ing sheep would be high in California. eliminated because they did not have The average in 1945 was 309 as compared sufficient compensatory landholdings and with 330 in 1935. Other evidence would were forced out of business. Certain labor indicate that since 1945 there have been difficulties have undoubtedly influenced fewer sheep on the farms reporting. sheep numbers. There has been competi- Comparisons for past years are extremely tion between stock and game animals. difficult to make because of the differences With the increase in the human popula- in the census dates. In all probability tion, especially in parts of the West, there has been little decline in the north there has been, and will continue to be, coast section, while evidence points to an competition for the use of many areas for increase in numbers per farm in the San grazing, recreation, and the like. Joaquin Valley. The Sacramento Valley, In the native states (east of the Rock- central coast, southern California, and ies), the sheep are generally kept in the mountain area have shown declines. small farm flocks and are a somewhat The Sacramento and San Joaquin val- incidental enterprise in the general farm leys reported approximately 464 sheep organization. They use rough pastures per farm reporting on January 1, 1945. and hillsides and require attention mainly The north coast section followed with in the winter months. Farmers in these 295, while southern California, the moun- areas reported that they kept an average tain, and the central coast areas had 263, of 38 sheep. 163, and 150, respectively.

THE LAMB CROP California's production and management program has changed greatly since the 1920's, thus affecting the over-all market picture and, in turn, producers' prices.

United States Lamb Crops.—In the ewes, as compared with 80 for the western 26 years for which estimates are avail- sheep states, and 86 for the United States. able, the country's lamb crop has varied California Lamb Crops.—Estimates from 32,610,000 (1941) to fewer than of California lambs produced indicate 19,000,000 (1949 and 1950). The 1950 that a steady upward trend which began crop was the smallest of record. Lamb in the 1920's reached a peak of 2,272.000 crops follow the trends of stock sheep in 1931 (fig. 6). This large crop at the numbers. Slightly fewer than two thirds very beginning of the depression helped of the lambs are produced in the eleven to send sheep numbers down in 1932 and western states, Texas, and South Dakota. 1933. Except for 1937, crops averaged The remainder are produced in the native above the 2-million mark for the 15 years sheep states. This latter, eastern section 1928-1943. The effects of reduced stock of the country, produces a larger propor- numbers began to show rather clearly tion of lambs than would be indicated beginning in 1943. The estimated 1949 by its stock sheep numbers. The main lamb crop was only 56 per cent of what reason for this difference is the saving of it had been in 1942 and 51 per cent of a larger number of lambs per ewe. In the what had been estimated for the peak native sheep states, since 1924, an aver- year of 1931. The estimated 1950 crop age of 99 lambs have been saved per 100 is only 1 per cent below that of 1949, in- [14] FIGURE 6—LAMBS RAISED AND TOTAL NUMBER OF EWES OF BREEDING AGE, CALIFORNIA MILLION HEAD 2.8

2.6 BR EDING /

1WES ~X/ 2.4

2.2 A — V

2.0 \ 1 1 1.8 i *- % \ / < LAMBS 1 AISED V 1.6 / \ \ 1.4 -

1.2 x:

1.0 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

dicating a turning point in the size of centage" or the "number saved" and (2) the crop. the "percentage" or the "number raised." Breeding ewe numbers usually indicate The first method is the one generally the size of lamb crops even though there used, and represents the ratio between the have been exceptions, as in 1937. Al- number docked or marked and the breed- though the number of breeding ewes on ing ewes one year old or over on the pre-

January 1, 1937, was approximately the vious January 1. The "percentage raised" same as it had been a year before, the takes into account the death losses of

1937 lamb crop was 18 per cent less. The lambs and hence is smaller for any given causes of the low crop were an adverse year than the "percentage saved." early-season feed situation, and unusually The average of lambs saved in Cali- heavy storms. fornia for the 27 years beginning with

Figure 6 shows that in certain years 1924 is estimated at 88 per cent, of lambs there is a tendency for relatively more raised, at about 84. In the eleven years, lambs to be raised in proportion to the 1940-1950, the percentages were 91 and number of breeding ewes. This is particu- 86, respectively. larly noticeable since the beginning of For the entire country, the percentage World War II. Some of this improvement saved since 1940 has been 87 (compared was brought about by high prices and with 90 for California) . For some of the the war conditions. farm flocks in the Mississippi Valley the Percentage Lamb Crop. —There percentage saved is usually above 100 are two methods of reporting the "per- and it has been as high as 125 (Kentucky, centage lamb crop" or the number of 1932) . Some experts in sheep husbandry lambs per hundred ewes: (1) the "per- management set up a goal of 125 to 150 [15] FIGURE 7—LAMBS SAVED PER 100 EWES OF BREEDING AGE, CALIFORNIA, WESTERN, AND NATIVE SHEEP STATES

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

lambs per 100 ewes as being attainable The percentage lamb crop could be in- in small farm flocks. creased by use of the proper types of California ranks higher than the com- ewes and rams, special attention to the bined western states in the percentage of diet of ewes during the breeding season, lambs saved (fig. 7). This is partially improved feed and care at lambing time, the result of the somewhat milder physi- and disease-control measures. cal conditions in most sections of Califor- Changes in Production Period.— nia as compared with the western states One of the most far-reaching changes in as a whole. Comparative estimates of the California industry—from both the death losses between sheep and lambs in- economic and management standpoints- dicate that the older animals have shown has been that from summer- and fall- by far the greater losses. In 1948 and marketed lambs to spring-marketed lambs 1949, of the total number of deaths in in the interior valleys. Before World War the country, sheep represented 60 and 61 I, ewes were bred to lamb in February per cent, respectively, while in California and March. The lambing period in the the percentages were 78 and 77. interior valleys and lower elevations has

It is not possible to analyze, from the been changed to October, November, De- data available, the influence of individual cember, and January. This change took factors on productivity. Even if more in- place rapidly in the 1920's. New pastur- clusive data were available, the results age ordinarily becomes available during would be different in succeeding years. the winter months, resulting from fall It seems logical to assume that economic and winter rainfall and a comparatively conditions, as well as physical factors, mild climate. have influenced the productivity per Estimates of the number of lambs animal. marketed in the first nine months of each [16] —

year have shown an appreciable change pastures early enough so that the farmer in the quarter century since data were will not lose his usual number of alfalfa first obtained. From 1924 through 1931, cuttings. The critical period apparently growers estimated that an average 65 to has been the two to four weeks of the late 68 per cent of their lambs were in this winter or the early spring when the sheep- class. This increased to about 79 per cent man wishes to finish his lambs and the for the five years beginning in 1937, farmer wishes to get the sheep off in time the to while 1946-1950 estimate went 85 to start the new crop of alfalfa. per cent. The 1948 estimate of 86 per The Sacramento Valley lambs appear cent was the highest on record. next, and these are followed by the lambs Earliest lambs originate in the San Joa- from the mountain and coast counties. quin Valley, where pronounced changes The production period, not only in Cali- in methods of handling have recently fornia but elsewhere in competing areas, been made. With these changes have come plays a vital role in determining lamb economic and managerial problems. Until numbers on the market at any given time. very recently, lambs were born out on This situation in turn affects producers' green alfalfa and then went to the natural prices. At times in the past the fed lambs grass areas on the west side of the valley from other areas have competed with the to be finished in March, April, and May. first of the California lambs. One of the Drought, and the use of these west-side best illustrations of the effect of produc- ranges for crops, have forced the sheep- tion period on the market occurred in men to arrange with alfalfa farmers to the summer months of 1949. Lambs from keep the sheep on the green alfalfa from the mountain and coast counties were the time lambing starts in October or late through November until the lambs are marketed being marketed from June in February, March, and April. This July and August. When these lambs ar- practice has found acceptance. Losses ap- rived on the market, others from southern parently are not so severe as had been Oregon and Idaho arrived at the same anticipated, and exceptionally fat lambs time. As a result, there was a severe break with weights up to 100 pounds—heavier in the market. This situation was made than formerly—are the result. The diffi- worse by the appearance of early Ken- culty with this practice has been two- tucky lambs on the market which handi- fold—the bargaining for the alfalfa and capped the moving of both Idaho and the necessity of getting the sheep off the California lambs eastward.

MOVEMENTS OF SHEEP AND LAMBS California's steadily increasing population has caused us to ship in more sheep for slaughter, stock, and feeding. These in-shipments have come from increasingly distant areas.

Sheep and Lamb Marketings. In the inventory decline from 1942 to Although the changes in flock age groups 1950, this percentage fell while that of occurred before World War I, the rela- sheep rose, indicating a drastic reduction tionships between these groups are not in breeding animals. In the five years static (pp. 7-10). The Bureau of Agri- 1944-1948, the percentage of lambs cultural Economics estimated that in marketed by producers dropped to 77. 1935-1939, lambs constituted 84 per cent A recent rise (1950 = 83 per cent) shows of the animals marketed in the country. that curtailment has become less drastic. [17] .

In California, the proportion of lambs markets, around 13 per cent (1948 = 10 marketed is considerably higher than that per cent) were shipped as stockers and in the nation. About 90 per cent of the feeders, while other shipments out of the marketings in the 1935-1939 period were yards accounted for 35 per cent (1948 = lambs. Even in the recent downward 33 per cent). Changes have occurred in inventory trend, the lamb percentage the disposition of the sheep and lambs dropped only to an estimated 87. In 1949 received at these same public markets the estimated percentage reached 91. between 1938 and 1948. In 1939, total Although comprehensive data on the receipts at the three yards were 443,066 channels through which sheep and lambs head (1938 = 522,390). Local slaughter move are lacking, there is sufficient mate- adj acent to the plants accounted for 64 per rial to show a pronounced contrast be- cent (1938 = 69 per cent) , while stockers tween the nation and the state. The and feeders shipped out amounted to 6 principal channel used in the nation is per cent (1938 = 1 per cent) . Other ship- the terminal public market. Other chan- ments in 1939 totaled 29 per cent (1938 = nels are direct shipping to packing plants, 29 per cent) . These figures show, in part, sales to dealers, livestock auctions, and the changes that have taken place in the marketing and shipping associations. management phases of the industry (p.

Changes have been occurring in the vol- 16) . Investigations under way in Califor- ume routed through these channels over nia indicate that only a very small num- the past 20 years. Evidence points to a ber of sheep are moved through the decline in the relative importance of the livestock auction yards as distinguished terminal public market. In the 1925-1929 from the terminal markets. There are one period, about 87 per cent of the sheep and or two auction yards (out of a total of 78 lambs slaughtered under federal inspec- nonposted yards) that handle relatively tion originated in public markets. By large numbers of sheep.

1935-1939, this had dropped to about 70 It is difficult to tell the relative impor- per cent, and in the three postwar years, tance of individual public markets be- 1946-1948, to approximately 60 per cent. cause they differ in function. Some are Apparently, in the interwar period, public for slaughter animals, some for stockers markets declined in importance as a and feeders. Data on receipts and ship- source of supply for feeders, but during ments for all the markets in the western the war, especially in the Corn Belt, there states show that through the past 20 years was a reversal of this trend. there has been a tendency to market a In California, most sales are made di- larger percentage within the western area. rectly from sheepmen to packers, country This, plus the increase in total western buyers, and feeders. Public markets han- slaughter, indicates a change in the chan- dling sheep are located at South San nels western sheep and lambs are taking Francisco, Stockton, and Los Angeles. from the producer to the ultimate con- Total receipts of sheep and lambs at these sumer. three markets in 1949 were 546,154 head Increased western demand, especially (1948 = 593,420). Salable receipts con- that from California, apparently will con- stituted approximately 62 per cent of the tinue to turn an increasing amount of the total (1947 and 1948 = 55 per cent each) finished product westward. However, this These data show that public markets ac- does not necessarily mean greatly in- count for a minor part of the esti- creased absolute slaughter in California, mated total marketings in the state although such has been the trend.

(p. 25) . Of the total 1949 receipts, about The California Crop and Livestock 52 per cent (1948 = 57 per cent) were Reporting Service has suggested that slaughtered at plants adjacent to the marketings or "disposals" be calculated [18] : :

Table 4—Sheep and Lambs Shipped into California

AH sheep Stockers and Slaughter sheep Period and lambs feeders and lambs

Thousands

Averages 1925-1929 700 226 473 1930-1934 1,306 278 1,027 1935-1939 1,443 436 1,007 1940-1944 1,408 444 964 1945-1949 1,370 506 864

Annual 1945 1,538 447 1,091 1946 1,653 563 1,090 1947 1,263 462 801 1948 1,258 557 701 1949 1,139 503 636

by adding out-shipments to numbers are relatively small. Most movement is slaughtered, and deducting in-shipments that of stockers and feeders and animals for immediate slaughter. These derived destined for slaughter. The movements of marketings would include some animals sheep and lambs or their products occur brought into the state as feeders and then on a large scale because of the location sold after being fattened. It is believed of the nation's human population, the that the resulting error is not large. Since distribution of sheep, the location of feed- 1924, the estimated marketings have ing areas, and the regions of high per- varied from 2,229,000 head in 1937 to capita lamb consumption. The California 1,458,000 in 1949. A rather definite sheep industry cannot be isolated from seasonal pattern has been established. the nation's, and this is shown by the in- Normally the heaviest marketings— ap- and out-shipments over the state's borders. proximately one fifth of the year's total- California in-shipments usually fall occur in May. Afterwards a decline into three rather distinct groups. The usually sets in which continues to the largest number are intended for immedi- following January or February. Then ate slaughter. A second group is mainly comes a pronounced upward turn that ewes and ewe lambs brought in as re- culminates in the peak month. A concen- placement stock for maintaining breeding tration in April, May, and June is the flocks. A third group consists of feeder result of marketing the early lambs from lambs and some dry ewes to be fattened the interior valleys. During the periods for slaughter. The second and third before and after this concentration there groups are merged in the data reported, are a few early lambs, and later crops since it would be impossible to separate from the north coast and mountain areas, them. together with some fed lambs out of pas- From the early 1920's until 1935, in- tures and feed lots. shipments increased rapidly (table 4). Shipments of All Sheep into Cali- They were maintained at a high average fornia.—Movements of breeding stock level until 1947 when the decreasing between different areas of the country flocks over the country began to affect [19] the movement. The in-state movement is immediate slaughter originated east of highly seasonal, the result of pasture con- the seven far western states'. In the five- ditions, feed supplies, the demand for year period ending in 1949, this figure slaughter animals, and so forth. May, the increased to approximately 10 per cent. time of heavy state lamb marketings, has The seasonal pattern is fairly regular, but few in-shipments. In June they begin more so than that for stockers and feed- to rise, and reach a peak by September or ers. Because local spring lambs are avail- October. A decline usually sets in by No- able for slaughter in April and May, vember which is accelerated in December. in-shipments during those two months are Often a slight rise is registered in Janu- negligible. By June, a steady increase ary, depending on feed conditions. The begins, and continues month by month, first three months of the year show a reaching its peak in January. February fairly even level of in-shipments. A drop and March then show a decided decline. follows which reaches its low point in While all of the western states have con- May. tributed to this movement, Idaho, Utah, Four of the western states—Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, in the order named, Utah, Oregon, and Nevada—furnish the have furnished the bulk of these ship- largest numbers of in-shipments. An in- ments. creasingly greater number have origi- Stocker and Feeder Sheep In- nated in more distant areas. In the five shipments.—Between 1925-1929 and years, 1925-1929, less than 6 per cent of 1935-1939, in-shipments of stockers and all incoming animals were brought from feeders almost doubled—from 226,000 to areas east of the six most westerly states 436,000. (other than California)—Washington, There was a slight recession during the Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Ari- five years before World War II. Little zona. In the 1945-1949 period this rose change, on the average, took place in the to an average of over 16 per cent—another five years beginning with 1942, although indication of what has happened to 1946 broke all records with 563,000. The needed livestock supplies for California's 1947 estimates dropped by about 100,000, increased population. As the additional while 1948 numbers were close to the supplies are drawn from the more distant 1946 level. The 1949 estimate was ap- areas, there is increased competition be- proximately one-half million. Stocker and tween "western" and "eastern" agencies feeder in-shipments are especially af- (including farmers). In Montana, Wyo- fected by pasture and other feed situa- ming, Colorado, and New Mexico, the tions and by economic factors. Figure 8 flow has been and still is predominantly shows the increasingly important role of eastward. stockers and feeders in the California In-shipments of Slaughter Ani- sheep industry. mals.—During the eight years, 1925- Most sheepmen must bring in replace- 1932, there was a rapid acceleration of ment stock since they market crossbred in-shipments for slaughter purposes (fig. early lambs. It is reasonable to suppose, 8). From 1930 through 1946, these fell therefore, that at least a half of the total below the 900,000 mark in only two "stocker and feeder shipments" were years-1939 and 1940. In 1947, the num- breeding animals. ber dropped to 801,000 and in 1949, to Stocker and feeder in-shipments are 636,000-the smallest since 1928. seasonal. They are highest in the August- Increased numbers of slaughter sheep November period, with September and have been coming in from distant areas. October alone usually accounting for at In the five years, 1928-1932, only about least 50 per cent of the annual total. Ore- 5 per cent of the animals shipped in for gon, Nevada, and Utah have been the [20] —

FIGURE 8—SHEEP AND LAMBS SHIPPED INTO CALIFORNIA

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

main contributors although in some The highly seasonal California lamb years, Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, production has made for out- as well as Texas, and Wyoming have added sub- in-shipments. Although there are more stantial numbers. There have been many sheep and lambs slaughtered in the state changes in the origin of stockers and than are produced here, a concentration feeders sent into the state. In the five in spring lamb enterprises has made it years, 1928-1932, about 80 per cent of imperative, in the past, that lambs be the stockers and feeders came from Ore- shipped eastward—especially during April gon, Nevada, and Arizona while in the and May. This is a practice of long stand- five years ending in 1949, less than 40 ing. The first rail shipment (54 cars) of per cent came from those states. lambs to eastern points was made in 1898. Shipments Out of California. From 1919 to 1929, there was a decided Most out-of-state shipments are slaughter upward trend in early lamb shipments animals, but in some years, there have (fig. 9) . A slight decline then set in, but been sizable shipments of stocker and the average (omitting 1937) hovered feeder animals to other states because of about the half-million mark through 1941. adverse feed and pasture conditions. Esti- Numbers began to drop in 1942, and by mates on out-shipments of feeder lambs 1946 they were less than a half of what in the period 1945-1949 have ranged they had been in the ten years ending in from approximately 4,000, in 1945, to 1941. Some of this decline resulted from 38,000 in 1947. In addition, a portion of regulations imposed during the war the lambs shipped out may, in "normal" years when, it is believed, an unfavorable years, be fed further before being price structure arose between the pro- slaughtered. duction areas of the West and large con-

21 FIGURE 9—LAMB SHIPMENTS OUT OF CALIFORNIA

600 -

500 "

400

300 -

200

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

suming sections of the East. Shipments from either Denver or Omaha to San in 1945 were probably the smallest on Francisco were over twice those for ship- record. Undoubtedly the maintenance of ments in the opposite direction. the California lamb price structure for Estimates indicate that usually 75 to the first six months of 1949 was due to almost 100 per cent of all live lamb out- the out-shipments of lambs and ewes east- shipments have been made from March ward for immediate slaughter or further through June, with the greatest concen- feeding. tration in April and May (fig. 10). The Over the past 25 years, both live and postwar drop in early live lamb shipments dressed animals have been shipped (table has been far greater than that of total 5). Live animals have constituted the out-shipments. Variations occur from year bulk of the out-shipments although in the to year, influenced not only by economic 10 years beginning with 1924, a sizable conditions but also by weather. In recent number of dressed carcasses were sent years, increasing numbers of lambs not out. The large volume of dressed ship- ready for market have been held and ments in 1924 was the result of a foot- fattened on irrigated pasture. A larger and-mouth disease outbreak in the state. percentage of these early lambs is con- Future relationships between live and sumed in California, hence there is not dressed shipments in and out of the state the pressure to ship them out. But this are uncertain. There is a wide difference does not mean that lambs should not be between eastbound and westbound rates marketed promptly when they are ready for dressed meat. In 1949, carload rates for slaughter.

[22 : :

SHEEP AND LAMB SLAUGHTER

California ranks first in the United States in numbers of sheep and lambs slaughtered. Increased population plus high per-capita consumption have built up a big local market.

United States Slaughter.—Statis- Farm Slaughter.—The nature and tics on the slaughter of sheep and lambs concentration of sheep and lamb produc- are usually classified as "federally in- tion is such that in the past few years, spected," "commercial slaughter not only about 3 per cent of the country's federally inspected," and "farm slaugh- total slaughter has been on farms. Prob- ter." The total of these classes, like that of ably 60 per cent of the nation's farm other farm animals, varies yearly. Cer- slaughter can be credited to the mountain tain slaughter trends are important to the states. In California, farm slaughter is sheepman. There was a continuous rise even more insignificant—perhaps 1 per from an estimated total of 15,430,000 cent (or less) of the state's total. head, in 1925, to a peak of 23,138,000 in Commercial Slaughter.—Approxi- 1931. For ten years—through 1941—total mately 90 per cent of sheep and lamb slaughter fluctuated within a relatively slaughter is under federal inspection. narrow range— a low of 20,440,000 in This is higher than with other meat ani- 1934, a high of 22,423,000 in 1938. With mals. Since the major part of lamb and the outbreak of World War II, slaughter mutton is consumed in areas far from grew rapidly and the upward turn con- production centers, the dressed product tinued until a peak of 27,073,000 was hit is moved from one section to another, in 1943. A drastic decline set in which thus requiring federal inspection. In Cal- continued through 1949 when numbers ifornia, practically all slaughter is done slaughtered were only 51 per cent of the under inspection—either federal, state, or total for 1943. local.

Table 5—Live and Dressed Lamb Shipments Out of California

Live lambs Total live and Period Live lambs Dressed lambs March-June dressed lambs

Thousands

Averages 1925-1929 385 62 365 447 1930-1934 491 26 468 517 1935-1939 538 5 512 543 1940-1944 411 3 368 414 1945-1949 235 13 132 248

Annual 1945 126 106 126 1946 200 8 119 208 1947 341 1 204 342 1948 296 9 104 305 1949 212 26 119 238

[23 FIGURE 10—PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL LAMBS RAISED AND MARKETED AS EARLY AND INTERMEDIATE LAMBS, CALIFORNIA PER CENT 90

80

70

60 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

The bulk of the inspected slaughter is 11). The inventory decline, which had classed as "lambs and yearlings." From started before the record slaughter, 1926 through 1941, this group accounted brought the kill down rapidly, 1949 for from 91 to 96 per cent of all such totals being only 61 per cent of those in slaughter—the remainder being "sheep." 1945. This percentage was higher than Beginning in 1942, there was a noticeable that registered in inventories because, drop in this percentage, indicating that a throughout the decline, breeding animals large number of breeding ewes were be- were being sacrificed. This held slaughter ing sent to market (see page 10). Lamb to relatively higher levels. If flocks are and yearling percentages from 1942 built up, slaughter for a few years will through 1948 ranged from 79 to 87. most likely grow more slowly than in- Slaughter in California.—In- ventories, as ewe lambs will be held back. creased flocks and production expanded Estimates of the California Crop and slaughter rapidly in the second half of Livestock Reporting Service indicate that the 1920's, with a total of 1,737,000 ani- approximately 90 per cent of the slaugh- mals reported. This rose to an average of ter during the eight years before the war 2,403,000 in 1930-1934. After a more or consisted of lambs and yearlings, and 10 less stationary period, an upward trend per cent of sheep. Considerable variation began with the war. From 1941 to 1945, occurred—in 1937 the proportion of some 600,000 additional animals were sheep was 13.2 per cent, as compared killed. In 1945, the total passed the with 6.5 in 1936. 3-million mark—the high point being In the ten years ending in 1934, it is reached later than that in the nation (fig. estimated that between 10.5 and 11 per [24] .

cent of all the nation's sheep and lamb Taking into account only lambs of Cal- slaughter took place in California (table ifornia origin, the largest slaughter is

6) . For the following five years this per- during the four months March-June. centage increased to 11.3. With the com- However, there is considerable variation ing of the war there was a drop, but in during this period through the years. the five years ending in 1949 there was a One advantage of the California lamb further expansion to about 13 per cent. industry can be seen by pointing out the Slaughter under federal inspection in prevailing slaughter periods in the na- California has increased far more rap- tion. The national periods are somewhat idly. In 1938, only 5.1 per cent of the uniform throughout the year. In the total sheep and lamb slaughter was under twenty years 1930-1949, the four months federal inspection on the Pacific Coast September-December have accounted for

(and in Hawaii) . By 1946, the increase in the largest volume—31 to 42 per cent of number of federally inspected plants plus the total. September and October were the western pull had more than tripled the the heaviest months. May through Au- percentage—to 15.4. The remaining west- gust accounted for from 30 to 35 per cent, ern states accounted for 3 and 6 per cent August normally being the heaviest. The in 1936 and 1946 (1947 = 5 per cent) first third of the year has accounted for Seasonal slaughter follows a fairly dis- from 26 to 37 per cent—February, March, tinct pattern. May is normally the peak and April usually being below average. month, although in some years it has been There are several rather definite trends April. From May (or April) there is a which indicate that California has be- decline which lasts into the following come increasingly dependent on other

January (or February) . The rise usually states for additional supplies to satisfy starts in March and reaches the peak the demands of the state's greatly ex- within a few weeks. panded population. The increase in

FIGURE 11—MARKETINGS AND SLAUGHTER OF SHEEP AND LAMBS, CALIFORNIA

2.00 -

1930 935 1940 1945 1950

[25] : :

Table 6—Total Estimated Slaughter of Sheep and Lambs, California and the United States

California Period California United States per cent of United States

Thousands

Averages 1925-1929 1,737 16,509 10.5 1930-1934 2,403 21,924 11.0 1935-1939 2,469 21,809 11.3 1940-1944 2,641 24,379 10.8 1945-1949 2,500 19,447 12.9

Annual 1945 3,125 24,639 12.7 1946 3,037 22,814 13.3 1947 2,237 18,766 11.9 1948 2,191 17,530 12.5 1949 1,908 13,758 13.9

slaughter is one indication. In recent compete, as they have over the last few years, more animals have been shipped in decades, for use of the nontillable but for immediate slaughter. Although num- pasturable lands. One of the main func-

bers shipped out remained on a high level tions of the state's sheep industry is to up to the beginning of the war, they have share, with the beef cattle industry (and since declined. From 1942 through 1949, with wild life), the forage produced on numbers shipped in for stocking and probably over 60 per cent of the state's feeding were the highest on record. Com- land area. From the condition of this parisons between marketings from farms forage area, there is no evidence that and the total number slaughtered indi- supplies of sheep and cattle have in- cate that the state has had an annual creased over the past 30 years. It seems "deficit" in sheep and lambs for several reasonable to expect that these forage years. However, this deficit is not so great areas might be improved to encourage as that of either pork or beef. (The only some increase. Wartime differentials be- meat which the state furnishes in suffi- tween the prices of staple crops and cient amounts for its demands is turkey.) lambs, especially in the San Joaquin and There have been increased changes in Sacramento valleys, caused many to cut numbers and weights of lamb and mut- down flock numbers. Sheep were, and ton produced in the state in relation to still are, competing with cotton, rice, the stock sheep numbers, which means beans, barley, etc. Many of these crops that, in so far as meat is concerned, the are being grown on former sheep range. state has been producing more lamb from So long as these crops are more profitable a smaller number of breeding animals. than sheep, the land on which they are If California's population is to continue grown will remain in crops. to consume lamb at or near the prewar It appears that the largest additions to rate, it is evident that additional sources meet California's lamb consumption needs of supply will have to be tapped. Within will have to originate in the other western the state, it appears that sheep will states where there is a relatively large

[26] number of sheep in proportion to the ier than those slaughtered in the nation. human population. In these states there Changes in the management of flocks (ir- will be competition not only between the rigated pasture, etc.) have unquestion- livestock industries but also increased ably helped to bring about this increase. competition between markets. If Califor- One result of the increase has been a nia consumers must depend more largely problem at the retail end of the marketing on lamb supplies from the other western process (in some areas), which has been states, eastern consumers will probably reflected back to the producer in prices have to obtain a relatively larger number received. Apparently the family trade of lambs from the Midwest and South. prefers legs weighing from 5 to 7 pounds, Changes in Lamb Weights.—There and when legs become much heavier, they has been an upward trend in average are less salable. weights of the country's sheep and lambs The lamb producer is fortunate because slaughtered in recent years. In 1934- a very high percentage of his product 1939, the average liveweight was esti- grades high. While this is reflected in

mated at 84.9 pounds; ten years later it prices received by producers, it is not was 94. Dressed weights in the same two possible to reflect these high grades in periods were 39.9 and 43.2 pounds, any single price series. Of the lamb car- respectively. Dressing yields dropped casses graded in the United States in slightly—from 46.9 to 46 per cent. 1945, 1946, and 1947, about 48, 48, and It is highly probable that, if similar 41 per cent, respectively, were classed as data were readily available for California, "choice" and 35, 36, and 47 per cent, the state would show a similar trend. In respectively, as "good." The remaining the three years 1947-1949, estimates in- three classes, "commercial," "utility," dicate that animals slaughtered in the and "cull," accounted for 17, 17, and 12 state were approximately 5 pounds heav- per cent, respectively, of the total.

LAMB AND MUTTON CONSUMPTION

While it is true that lamb and mutton make up only a small part of the

country's total meat supplies, lamb consumption is high in California, and the state does not meet local demands.

Meat Production and Consump- A peak in red meat production was tion, United States.—All meats, in- reached in 1944 with some 25 billion cluding poultry, are competitive, and pounds. This was the greatest production lamb and mutton consumption should be in history, exceeding by 55 per cent the considered with that of all meat. In the average for the 1935-1939 period. While interwar period, consumption of all red there was a decline during the next three meats just about balanced production. years, the average total production of red During the fifteen years 1925-1939, pro- meat in 1948 and 1949 was still one-third

duction exceeded consumption by less greater (34.3 per cent) than it had been than 1 per cent. Beginning in 1941, pro- in the prewar period. duction increased more rapidly than con- Total meat consumption continued to sumption. In the six years 1940-1945, rise after the close of the war so that in total production exceeded total consump- 1947 it was greater than in any previous tion by one sixth. The excess was ex- year in history. Between 1945 and 1948, ported. the gap between all meat production and [27 : : —

consumption practically closed so that in Lamb and Mutton Consumption. 1948 and 1949 they were once more in The relationship between lamb and mut- balance. ton production and consumption has been While the livestock producer generally somewhat similar to that shown by all realizes that there is competition among meats, with certain minor differences, beef, veal, pork, and lamb, he sometimes especially in most recent years. Foreign overlooks the competition between those trade in lamb and mutton was relatively meats and poultry and fish. While the less important than that in all meats be- exact relationship between the consump- fore the outbreak of World War II. The tion of lamb and mutton on the one hand, almost exact balance between production and poultry on the other, cannot be stated, and domestic consumption began to dis- the thoughtful sheep grower realizes that appear in 1941, and by 1943 production poultry meat has been a growing com- was one-third greater. The gap between petitor of lamb. The per-capita consump- production and consumption then began tion of chicken and turkey for the five to close. By 1947, both were lower than years 1945-1949 is estimated to have av- they had been in any year since 1929, and eraged 28.9 pounds, an increase of 39 per this downward trend continued into 1948 cent over the average estimated consump- and 1949. tion of 1935-1939 (table 7). When the liquidation period is ended, There is often a tendency to regard the meat production (lamb and mutton) will per-capita consumption of a food with an be curtailed in relation to numbers of exactness that is incorrect. Total con- animals. If numbers are expanded, it will sumption is, in itself, an estimate and this only be by holding back ewes and ewe is simply divided by the estimated popu- lambs. From the standpoint of the lamb lation. The latter includes persons of all producer, this will create a favorable sup- ages, nationalities, races, and financial ply situation. If the general price level as well-being. well as the national income remains high,

Table 7—Per-capita Consumption of Meat and Poultry, United States

Relative changes

Period Lamb and All meats Poultry* mutton Lamb and All meat Poultry mutton

Pounds 1935-1939 = 100

Averages 1925-1929 5.4 134.3 79 106 1930-1934 6.8 133.4 21.0 100 106 102 1935-1939 6.8 126.2 20.5 100 100 100 1940-1944 6.7 144.7 27.5 99 115 134

Annual 1945 7.3 144.4 33.1 107 114 161 1946 6.6 153.4 29.9 97 122 146 1947 5.4 155.0 28.1 79 123 137 1948 5.0 145.4 26.7 74 115 130 1949 4.1 143.9 26.7 60 114 130

Chicken and turkey.

[28] this means a relatively high level of prices tion was over 13 pounds. In 1947, Cali- for lambs and sheep. fornia's production was estimated to be Lamb and mutton have never been a 116.616 million pounds. Taking into ac- large part of the total red meat consumed. count the in-shipments for immediate From 1925 to 1929, they made up only slaughter, per-capita consumption was about 4 per cent of the annual total, while probably about 13 pounds. Indications from 1930 through 1944, they were never are that the 1948 and 1949 drop in pro- as high as 6 per cent. Consumption in duction and the increased population 1948 was only 3.4 per cent of the esti- have lowered per-capita consumption mated total, and in 1949 it dropped to close to the 10-pound mark. 2.8 per cent. Per-capita consumption of Heavy lamb consumption in San Fran- lamb and mutton averaged about 6.8 cisco, compared with that in Birming- pounds for the fifteen years ending in ham, Buffalo, and Minneapolis-St. Paul, 1944. It continued at a relatively high is shown by the results of surveys of the level through 1946. By 1948 it had United States Department of Agriculture. dropped to 5 pounds (the lowest in half San Francisco individuals in housekeep- a century) while in 1949 it was almost a ing families, in the winter of 1948, con- pound lower—4.1. Per-capita consump- sumed over two and one-half times as tion of other meats held to relatively much lamb as those in Buffalo, eight times higher levels in the four years ending in the amount in Minneapolis-St. Paul, and 1949. twenty times the average in Birmingham. Regional Consumption of Lamb This shows the importance of the local and Mutton.—There is a wide varia- market as well as the fact that, compared tion in the regional consumption of lamb with other cities, a far larger percentage and mutton, and this is of vital impor- of households in San Francisco used tance to the lamb producer. Estimates lamb. made by the American Meat Institute for Factors Influencing Lamb and Mut- 1936 indicated that per-capita consump- ton Consumption.—Consumption of tion in the North Atlantic and Pacific meat, including lamb and mutton, de- Coast states was from three to four times pends primarily on the quantity pro- higher than for the remainder of the duced. Most of the variations in retail country. If these estimates were approxi- prices result from changes in consumer mately correct, almost 60 per cent of the income—especially in that part available total consumption occurred in the North for spending. It is estimated that city Atlantic states—far removed from the dwellers spend about 25 cents of each center of production. The Pacific Coast food dollar for meat. High wages, high states, on the above basis, would have ac- employment, and a high average of in- counted for at least 13 per cent. With come available for spending have in- their greatly increased population, they fluenced the demand for meat during the would now probably account for closer postwar years 1946-1949. The consumer to 20 per cent. demand for meat is determined not only Evidence shows that the state's con- by the total amount of money possessed sumption is high. In 1926, the author by individuals but also by the distribu- estimated it at over 13 pounds per capita tion of that money among individuals. when, for the nation, it was only 5.5. In The United States Department of Agri- 1946, approximately 13.5 per cent of the culture, in studies made over the nation nation's sheep and lamb slaughter was in 1942, brings out clearly that the aver- done in California. With 6.8 per cent of age consumption of meat as well as of the nation's population residing in the poultry and fish is greater for families in state, this would indicate that consump- the higher income groups. Other studies [29] indicate that the preference for lamb, Urban families tend to eat considerably especially in the American white group, more lamb than do rural families. Fewer increases as the disposable income goes farmers and ranchers raise sheep than, up. This is probably the situation in cer- for example, raise chickens, and the num- tain sections of the country. There is ber of lambs used on the farms is rela- strong evidence that a part of the varia- tively less. Apparently city families, in tion in lamb consumption by regions is general, tend not only to demand more related to variations in per-capita in- meat when incomes rise, but to shift de- come. Also, there are some groups of mand from pork to beef, veal, and lamb— foreign origin who prefer lamb to other another point of importance to the Cali- meats. fornia lamb producer.

SHEEP AND LAMB PRICES

If freight and transportation rates remain high and the relative California demand continues to strengthen, local prices will probably become rela- tively more favorable.

Widely different commodities—lambs, underlying reasons for the decline in sheep, and wool—as well as different sheep and lamb numbers on the farms types, classes, and qualities of each, make and ranches of the United States during it difficult to select the price of any one the past few years. A significant change product as definitely and accurately occurred in these relationships in 1949. meaningful to a producer. Table 8 shows Prices of all farm products were relatively the relative prices paid farmers in the lower. Even more significant was the de- United States for the combined three cline of beef cattle prices compared with main products of the sheep industry the strong prices prevailing for the sheep (lambs, sheep, wool) and those paid for industry's products. beef cattle and all farm products. The California Producer Prices for relationship between these series of rela- Lambs.—From the standpoint of Cali- tive prices was undoubtedly one of the fornia producers, the most important

Table 8—Relative Prices of Sheep, Lambs, and Wool, Beef Cattle, All Farm Products, in the United States

Sheep, lambs, All farm Period Beef cattle and wool products

1935-1939 100 100 100 1940 110 116 93 1941 134 135 115 1942 157 164 148 1943 170 183 179 1944 167 166 182 1945* 176 187 188 1946* 200 224 217 1947 224 282 250 1948 245 343 267 1949 254 306 233

* Prices upon which relatives are based included direct payments made to sheep and cattle producers.

30] : :

Table 9—Producers' Prices for Lambs and Beef Cattle, United States and California

Relative changes Beef cattle Lambs Beef cattle Period

Cali- United Cali- United Cali- United Cali- United fornia States fornia States fornia States fornia States

Dollars per 100 pounds 1935-1939 = 100

Averages 1925-1929 12.28 11.93 8.02 7.85 160 153 121 120 1930-1934 6.33 7.21 5.28 5.07 82 93 80 77 1935-1939 7.68 7.79 6.62 6.51 100 100 100 100 1940-1944 11.18 10.98 10.06 9.96 146 141 152 153 1945-1949 18.96 18.88 17.51 17.42 247 242 265 268

Annual 1945 13.40 13.00 12.70 12.10 174 167 192 184 1946 14.60 15.60 14.60 14.50 190 200 221 221 1947 20.40 20.50 18.50 18.50 266 263 285 282 1948 22.80 22.70 22.60 22.20 297 291 341 341 1949* 23.60 22.40 19.10 19.80 307 288 289 304

* Preliminary.

price is that paid for lambs. Table 9 indi- average. After a setback in 1921, prices cates that the California price is approxi- again advanced and held at very high mately the same, on the average, as that levels in the 1920's as compared with paid producers in the entire country. If other agricultural prices. This had the freight and transportation rates remain effect of increasing numbers materially. high and the relative California demand When, in 1930, the prices began to continues to strengthen, it is probable that weaken, those of lambs dropped sharply— the local prices will become relatively $4.75 per 100 pounds in 1932 being ap- more favorable. proximately 36 per cent of the 1928 or A comparison between producer prices 1929 level. While there was some recovery for lamb and beef cattle in the state indi- in 1934, prices from 1935 to 1939 were cates that prices for beef cattle were more only about 28 per cent higher than they favorable during and after the war than had been in 1910-1914. Lamb prices, in in the prewar period of 1935-1939. In common with those of other agricultural addition, the rise in prices paid for beef commodities, rose during World War II, cattle was much higher than in those for but they did not equal the price rise of the sheep or wool. Producers who could raise most important competing farm animals beef cattle in place of sheep probably did (table 8). Average producer prices in so. Over a fairly large section of the 1946 were higher, however, than any pre- West, sheep and cattle compete for the viously recorded, and they rose even same grazing lands and the same feeds. further from 1947 through 1949. From 1918 through 1920, California In July, 1949, there was a considerable producer prices (fig. 12) averaged more break in prices. This brought them more than 200 per cent above the 1910-1914 in line with those obtained for both beef

[31] FIGURE 12—AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICES FOR LAMBS, 1947-1949

legend: Cents per pound H Under 20 ^^ Between 20 and 21.49

21.5 " 22.99 ] 23 and above

cattle and hogs. Other influences lowered of California's being the "deficit" state lamb prices in the summer of 1949, but in the West. Highest prices during 1947- during the latter part of the year, prices 1949 were received by producers in Ken- firmed materially. During the first half tucky, Virginia, Tennessee, and West of 1950 they remained at a high level. Virginia, in the order named (fig. 13). During the period of low lamb pro- All of these states are close to good mar- duction, it is likely that lamb prices will kets. The "hill" country areas are adapted hold to relatively higher levels than prices to sheep raising. The lamb quality is su- for other classes of livestock, unless, of perior—for example, the Kentucky lamb course, there are drastic reductions in is out of a black-faced, crossbred west- cattle and hog inventories. However, it ern ewe, and is usually sired by either a is highly improbable that lamb prices Southdown or Hampshire ram. will remain too far out of line with pro- Seasonal Variation in Lamb and ducers' prices for other classes of meat Sheep Prices.—The season influences animals. producer prices. The four months, March Geographic Distribution of Lamb through June, have been those of highest Prices.—In the three years 1947-1949, lamb prices in the nation—the peak California producer prices have been usually being in early May. Prices have almost identical with those for producers been lower than average from August or over the nation—the estimated price for September on. Lamb prices in the last the former group being $22.27 per 100 five months of the year have been, on the pounds, for the latter, $22.30. In the average, about 10 per cent lower than western section, California prices have those of the March to June period. been higher than those of any other west- Feeder lambs in the nation are nor- ern state with the exception of Colorado. mally higher in the first four months and

This higher price is, in part, the result lowest about July 1.

[32 FIGURE 13—RELATIVE PRICES OF LAMBS, WOOL, AND CATTLE, CALIFORNIA RELATIVES (1935-1939=100) 360

280

200 -

120 -

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

For the California lambs, the high- birth combined with the time of mar- price period, in the past, has been March, keting. The term is limited to lambs which April, February, January, and May, in are born during the winter or very early descending order. Lower prices are usual spring and which come to market between in the three months beginning in August. the middle of March and the first of June. During and since the war, the prewar The season has a deciding influence not variations were upset. Wartime regula- only on the time when spring lambs ap- tions, subsidies, and so forth, made for pear on the market but also on their con- changes. Since the close of the war and dition. The May wholesale prices ("good" the removal of controls, the rapid increase and "choice") at San Francisco indicate in lamb prices has been such that the the general year-to-year changes that seasonal pattern has been confusing. The have taken place (fig. 14). May prices seasonal pattern in effect before the war on spring lambs were not greatly differ- will probably be repeated whenever there ent in the war years from those of 1925 is a more stable price level. through 1929. The rise which began in Spring Lamb Prices.—Since lambs 1945 and which was especially acceler- constitute an age selection rather than a ated in 1947, 1948, and 1949 brought class, it is difficult to compile data on prices in San Francisco in May, 1949, to quotations throughout the year. On the over 300 per cent of what they had been livestock markets, slaughter lambs are in 1935-1939 and over 100 per cent of divided into two age selections—"spring what they had been in the 1940-1944 lambs" and "lambs." The first classifica- period. May, 1950, prices averaged over tion is not easily defined. In market prac- a dollar less than those of the previous tice the term is based upon the time of year. [33] Sheep Prices.—From 1910 through Governmental Actions.—The sheep 1919, the price which the producer re- industry has been directly affected over ceived for 100 pounds (liveweight) of the years by governmental actions, most lamb was approximately 20 per cent more of which have been related to wool (see than that received for 100 pounds (live- page 49) . During the war, rationing and weight) of sheep. After World War I, price controls on lamb and mutton were there was a radical change in this rela- in effect as were acts affecting wool. If the tionship. Since 1922—and through 1946 policy of keeping shorn wool production —lamb prices have averaged approxi- up to 360 million pounds annually con- mately 50 per cent higher than those for tinues, this will have an effect on the live sheep. This spread widened in 1947, animal and the carcass prices. Such a 1948, and 1949 when sheep prices were policy would tend to support live animal not so strong as lamb prices. In Califor- prices materially. In carrying out a pro- nia, high sheep prices have customarily gram to support the price of an agricul- been reported in March along with rela- tural commodity or product, the Secre- tively high lamb prices. In the past, the tary of Agriculture is directed to consider first months of the year have customarily the ability and willingness of producers been above average—with lower than to keep supplies in line with demand, the average prices in the second half of the support levels of other commodities, year. availability of funds, and other factors.

RETAIL MEAT PRICES Until the end of the war, retail prices of other foodstuffs moved upward irregularly, at about the same rate as retail meat prices. But from 1946 through 1949, the relative increase in retail meat prices was greater.

United States.—The consumers' de- In making comparisons of retail prices mand for red meats is reflected in part by during and after World War II, the pre- retail prices. During some periods, for war base of 1935-1939 was a period of example, the depression of the 1930's and low retail prices. As a result, the rise World War II, some prices were partially from 1939 to 1949 seems very great. affected by government action. Any series In comparing retail meat prices with of data on retail meat prices is open to all retail food prices and all retail prices,

question if we attempt to use the material the rise from the prewar period to the for comparisons between areas and be- end of the war was greater for all retail tween meat products. Certain general- foods. This was largely the result of gov- izations can be made by comparing the ernment wartime regulations. From 1946 prices of one meat with those for meats through 1949, retail meat prices jumped as a class of foodstuffs and with prices upward rapidly, and the relative increase of general foodstuffs. was far greater than that for all retail

There is considerable correspondence food prices. between the retail price movements of all Until the end of the war, all retail foods and of meats. All retail meat prices prices moved upward irregularly at rose rapidly during and after World War about the same rate as retail meat prices,

I, but the rise was not so great as that but from 1946 through 1949, the relative for all foodstuffs. In 1921, with the fall in increase in retail meat prices was greater. prices of retail foodstuffs (fig. 15), those Retail Lamb Prices.—Comparisons for meat also fell. The 1930's were a between individual meat prices show that period of relatively low retail food prices. lamb has been either the highest priced

[34 FIGURE 14—AVERAGE SPRING LAMB QUOTATIONS FOR MAY (SAN FRANCISCO), AND PRODUCERS 1 PRICES FOR MAY (CALIFORNIA) CENTS PER POUND

.00 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

FIGURE 15—RETAIL PRICES—ALL FOODS, ALL MEATS, LAMB- UNITED STATES RELATIVES (1935-1939=100) 260

220

180

140

100

i t i i i i i i i J—I—I—I—I—I—I I I I I I ' I | l_L 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

[35] or the second highest priced meat over paring the prices of different meats, as the past 30 years. The correlation between well as those of poultry and fish. All these lamb and beef prices is closer than that foods are animal protein sources and are between lamb and pork. interchangeable. Particularly striking is From 1913 through 1920, retail lamb the relationship between how much a prices climbed to higher levels than did person is free to spend (disposable in- retail prices of all meats and meat prod- come) and the retail value of the meat ucts. The price decline after World War I he eats. In the past 35 years, the retail did not carry retail lamb prices to as low a value of meats has varied between 3.5 and level as those of all meats and meat prod- 7.1 per cent of the disposable income per ucts, and for a period of eight years— person with an average of about 5.8 per 1922-1929-they remained relatively cent. The tastes and habits of people, as high. It was during that period that Cali- well as the prices of all foods, also influ- fornia producers increased flocks. ence meat prices.

The depression of the 1930's lowered There is nothing mysterious about the lamb prices far more than those of the steady advance in retail meat prices, par- entire group of meats and meat products. ticularly since the close of World War II. While there was some recovery in the During the war, controls kept prices from middle and late 1930's, there was no ma- going higher. Record employment and terial rise until the outbreak of World armed service for millions made for a War II. Price ceilings of the war years record per-capita consumption of meat. prevented prices from advancing so High levels of employment, high wages, rapidly as they might have. They did not and the average disposable income kept advance so rapidly as farm prices, the lat- up after the war. As a result, the demand ter being raised partially by government for meat became even greater after the marketing payments (1943-1946) and by war's end. This is partly shown by the

to producers . payments (1945-1946) The fact that the retail value of meat con- removal of controls, the impetus of infla- sumed, as related to the average con- tionary and other factors, carried retail sumer income, has been higher since the prices and those paid producers to the war than it was in the prewar period. highest level in recorded history. In 1949, High meat prices have not been caused retail lamb prices were approximately entirely by consumer demands. For ex- two and one-half times those for the ample, the poor corn crop in the United 1935-1939 period. States in 1947 lowered meat supplies, In connection with the competition especially pork. It has already been among meats, note the relatively high re- pointed out that supplies of all meats de- tail price of lamb in 1948 and 1949 clined after the war. Outside of producers, (fig. 15). If beef and pork prices trend few people apparently understand that lower, it is highly probable that those for the mere desire to buy meat, or even lamb would follow a similar trend even income with which to do it, does though supplies of lamb were relatively enough an increased supply in a few far less than those of beef and pork. not produce Factors Influencing Retail Meat weeks or a few months. Prices.—Many factors influence what These influences on retail prices are the consumer buys and how much he will mentioned merely to indicate that one supplies pay for it. Lamb price changes are not specific influence on demand or always explained by conditions in the seldom causes high prices on the one industry. Consumers are constantly com- hand or low prices on the other.

[36] COSTS IN THE SHEEP INDUSTRY

There are fewer possibilities for cutting down costs in sheep raising than in most of the other agricultural enterprises.

Ups and downs in livestock numbers Cash Farm Costs.—Still another rea- are seldom traceable to any one cause. It son for the decline in sheep numbers is highly probable, as noted, that one of during and after the war is what are the major causes for the decline in sheep generally referred to as "cash farm costs." numbers from 1942 to 1949 was the While such figures are available, it is prices and profits in alternative enter- difficult, if not impossible, to fit them into prises. A second cause was probably wool the sheep enterprises of the country in prices, together with the somewhat un- general or those of California in partic- certain outlook which prevailed for a con- ular. siderable period. A third cause was un- In addition to specific and general doubtedly the relatively high prices for prices of farm products, the Bureau of sheep and lambs at the close of and after Agricultural Economics publishes data World War II. Many remembered the on prices of feed, building and fencing halving of lamb prices after World War I materials, fertilizers, wage rates, and so

(California lamb prices—June, 1918 = forth (table 10) . These point up problems $14.50 per 100 pounds; September, which have faced and will continue to face 1921 = $6.90), and the even sharper the sheepman as well as other ranchers. drop in the depression of the early 1930's The figure which apparently has out- (California lamb prices—April, 1929 = stripped others is farm wages. Efficiency $14.00; July, 1932 = $4.10). These pro- in agricultural production over the past ducers were afraid of another downward 10 years has been greatly increased by turn, and reasoned that even if they were use of machines, fertilizer, etc. Just how to remain in the sheep business, it might far the problem of increasing wages has be better to sell out at high prices and to been or can be met by the sheep industry buy back at lower ones. is questionable. The commercial sheep-

Table 1 —Goods and Services Used in Production, United States, 1935-1939 = 100

Building All Year rates Feed Farm supplies and fencing commodities Wage materials

1939 98 105 88 101 100 1940 99 107 95 104 101 1941 105 125 103 111 108 1942 119 163 126 123 118 1943 132 217 149 137 123 1944 140 263 165 144 131 1945 142 297 164 146 134 1946 154 320 190 147 146 1947 181 346 225 159 191 1948 202 365 238 169 212 1949 192 354 196 176 210

[37 —

man of the West is an employer of labor. obtain protein feeds. Beginning in 1947, In common with at least some of the other this relationship between lambs and feed

animal industries, it seems that, so far at took a more favorable turn for the sheep- least, he has not been able to substitute man. many machines to lighten the labor load. Much of the land in California which Because of the way in which the sheep is used for sheep is rented, and rentals industry is conducted, especially in the have risen materially since the prewar West, there has been increased competi- period. The keeping of sheep and lambs tion for labor capable of tending sheep on green alfalfa (p. 17) has compelled flocks. This, plus the closing of channels many of the state's sheepmen to rent for bringing in new herders, has un- more land. While no comparable data doubtedly increased the downward move- on rentals over a series of years are ment in sheep numbers. Even where it available, almost every indication points was possible to secure the necessary la- to a relatively large increase, at least up bor, wages increased relatively more than to 1949, in the amounts paid for the land prices. Farm wage rates in the United which must be utilized. For example, States in 1949 were three and one-half selling prices of San Joaquin Valley farms times higher than they were in 1935- during and immediately following World 1939. War II rose relatively higher than those Cash Costs Other Than Labor.— for farms in other major agricultural Estimates of cash costs made by the Bu- areas of the state. Areas used for cotton, reau of Agricultural Economics for sheep, grain, potatoes, etc., command more cash beef cattle, and all farm products enter- rent than they do when used for sheep prises in the United States indicated that pasture. A considerable acreage of these in December, 1946, cash production costs former pasture areas was plowed up and for the sheep enterprise were 107 per cent thus became unavailable. According to above those for the 1935-1939 period; some who are intimately connected with for beef, they were 77 per cent higher, the state's sheep industry, the difficulty while for "all farm products" they were and cost to the grower in "obtaining feed 76 per cent higher. The higher relative for 365 days in the year"—and usually at costs for the sheep enterprise were evi- a crucial period in the development of the dent throughout the war years. lamb— is one of the reasons for quitting Reliable data on feed costs for Cali- or decreasing the size of the sheep enter- fornia sheepmen are difficult to obtain. prise. Compared with the major livestock in- total cash costs of the sheep- dustries of the state, cash outlays for With the logical to grain have not been large. If we compare man in mind, it would seem is trend California barley and lambs, it is readily expect that if there a downward seen that there was a more rapid rise in in prices, those goods which the sheep- barley in the war and postwar periods man buys—including labor—will move until 1948. This was also true of other downward more slowly than the price of feeds. At times it was even difficult to his products.

[38 MEAT AND WOOL INCOME Income from meat and wool varies greatly among different areas of the state. On the whole, the larger income has been from meat, and this trend increased steadily up to mid- 1950.

There is great variation between the meat and wool, as can be seen by the areas and states in the relative income state's position as a producer of fat lambs received for meat and wool. Generally, An estimate of the exact percentage of the wool income is larger in many areas income from meat and wool in the sheep where fine wool sheep are grown because enterprise depends partly on whether we most lambs are produced as feeders, not include only shorn wool income in the fat lambs. Both the price per pound and estimate or whether both shorn and the lamb weight are low by comparison pulled wool are included. Considering with those for crossbred lambs produced only shorn wool, the percentage in the in areas where the feed is good. In Cali- United States has dropped from around fornia, there are wide variations among 41 per cent, in 1910-1919, to about 36 the different areas where sheep are per cent of the total income in the ten grown; the relative returns from meat years ending in 1949. If an adjustment

and wool for the entire state are not typi- is made for pulled wool, the income from cal for all its subdivisions. The large wool would be raised to around 47 per number of crossbred sheep in California cent for 1940-1949, and 51 per cent for has influenced the relative income from 1910-1919. In 1947 and 1948, these per-

FIGURE 16—GROSS INCOME FROM SHEEP AND LAMBS, AND WOOL (MINUS COSTS OF IN-SHIPMENTS), AND CASH INCOME FROM WOOL, CALIFORNIA MILLION DOLLARS 32

GROSS INCOME FROM SHEEP AND WOOL (MINUS COST OF IN-SHIPMENTS) 24

16

S/ ^- CASH INCOME FROM WOOL

i i i i_ j i i i i '''«' i 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

[39] centages dropped lower than during any 1940-1949 drops to 57. However, 1948 year since calculations were first made. and 1949 showed a percentage of approxi- Shorn wool was only about 25 per cent mately 70. Several factors caused notice- and even the addition of pulled wool able changes in income during the war. brought the percentage up to only 34. The government bought the wool clip California records do not go so far (selling to the government was compul- back as do national ones. The state's meat sory) at a set price, while the prices of production, however, has been relatively all lambs, both feeders and fats, were more important than wool (fig. 16), and rising. This caused the spread to widen this proportion has increased over the materially. years. Compared with shorn wool only, The very nature of the industry's prod- meat accounted for about 64 per cent of ucts—in California, lambs and wool- the sheep enterprise income. This figure makes it difficult to look ahead with re- rose above 75 per cent in the three years gard to income. These two products are ending in 1949. If pulled wool is taken affected by different sets of supply and into account, the average percentage for demand conditions.

WOOL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

World-wide consumption of wool is ahead of production in spite of the large reserves on hand following the war. High imports to the United States will continue. The outlook for domestic prices is at present favorable.

World Wool Production. — The The importance of the wool movement is California wool grower, far from the emphasized by the fact that before World place where his wool is used, lives at an War II, the only agricultural product even greater distance from the center of whose dollar value exceeded wool in in- world wool production. Before World ternational trade was cotton. War II, about 55 per cent (average 1931- The world's estimated average annual 1938) of the world's wool was produced production of raw wool for the prewar in the Southern Hemisphere countries years 1936-1940 totaled 3.93 billion and commonwealths of Australia, Argen- pounds. After the beginning of World tina, New Zealand, South Africa, and War II, production reached a peak of 4.3 Uruguay. Some shift in production has billion pounds, and over the 1941-1945 occurred since the war. Postwar produc- period, the average production was still tion in Western Europe, North America, about 4 billion pounds. The disturbances and Africa is lower than in prewar years, over a large part of the world were such while that in Oceania and South America that by 1947 production was down to 3.7 is higher. The largest decline has been billion pounds. Although it went up from in the United States. The Southern Hemi- 1948 to 1950, production in the latter sphere constitutes the world's "young" year was estimated at 3.9 billion pounds— areas, into which wool production has slightly lower than in the prewar years. been forced. The natural vegetation on World production at present (1950) is their ranges and pastures has made not large, when measured in terms of them the great pastoral areas of the past production data. world. They furnish more than 80 per All wool is not alike. Raw wool is used cent of the world's wool exports, which for such widely different commodities as are sent largely to the industrialized sec- apparel and carpets. Carpet wool is pro- tions of Europe and the United States. duced largely in the U.S.S.R., China, [40] —

and India, and most of it is used in those world wool stocks at the end of the war areas. Before the war, China and India were by far the largest on record. shipped sizable amounts into the United There was a rapid recovery of Europe's States. The flow from China has been cut textile industry after the war, so that by off, and Argentina is now the chief source 1948, all of the important European tex- of supply for the United States. tile manufacturing countries, with the ex- The United States grower is primarily ception of Germany, had almost regained interested in the apparel wools. In 1949- and, in some cases, exceeded the prewar 1950, world apparel wool production level. The immedate postwar period was reached an estimate of slightly over 3 one of almost unprecedented demand for billion pounds, compared with an average woolen textiles in the United States. This of slightly under this amount in the pre- demand began to slacken in 1947, and by war years 1934-1938. The 1949-1950 1949 apparel wool consumption was the total wool production is estimated to con- smallest of any year since 1940. West sist of 33 per cent Merino type, 45 per European consumption flattened out cent crossbred, and 22 per cent carpet somewhat in 1949. During the first half type. The decline in the Merino type at of 1950, a material increase occurred, the end of the war was greater than that accompanying that in the United States. of the other types. During the postwar In 1949, wool consumption and manu- years, the production gain of this type facture again began to develop in Japan, wool has been large although it is be- although activity was far smaller than in lieved that in 1949-1950, production will prewar years. be about 8 per cent below prewar. Cross- One of the favorable aspects of the bred wool production is estimated to be world situation in so far as the grower is

8 per cent above prewar figures, while concerned is that in the 1949-1950 year, the output of carpet wool will have in- it is estimated that consumption will ex- creased. ceed production by 500 million pounds, World Consumption of Wool. or 15 per cent. This is the fourth consecu- While total world consumption data were tive year in which world consumption inaccurate even before World War II, has exceeded production. Since the sup- they did offer some indications of wool plies of wool are limited, it appears that textile manufacturing activities in areas if world demand is strong, there will be where statistics were fairly reliable. The no substantial drop in prices below pres- changes resulting from the war were ent levels. world-wide. A few countries, notably the Wool Production, United States. United States, expanded consumption. —From the beginning of the nineteenth This expansion, during and immediately century, for at least 70 or 80 years, wool after the war, placed the United States production in the United States trended first in world production of wool textiles. upward. Since the 1880's there has not Great Britain had occupied this position been a distinct, long-time trend in produc- before the war. The war cut off certain tion. In 1922 a low point was reached countries entirely from supplies and cur- when total production dipped to 264 mil- tailed movements into others severely. lion pounds (222 million pounds of shorn Germany and Japan, before the war, had wool and 42 million pounds of pulled important wool textile industries which wool) . For the following 20 years, there steadily declined both during and imme- was a decided upward trend that reached diately after the war. The mills in the a peak in 1942 with 455 million pounds countries where supplies and facilities (shorn, 388 million pounds; pulled, 67 were available could not take up the million pounds). Since 1942, production slack in consumption and as a result, has declined so rapidly that, in 1949, [41] :

shorn wool production was reported at tion being 120 per cent greater than the 217 million pounds—the smallest since average for 1935-1939. The rapid release 1879 (table 11). of men from the armed forces, recon- After slaughter, wool removed from the version and employment shifts, together hide forms the pulled wool which is re- with the high level of consumer income, ported separately from shorn wool—and were factors in the demand. Total con- for the entire country instead of by areas. sumption in 1947 was down less than 15 Over the past few years, pulled wool per cent from the previous year. While production has averaged about 20 per total raw wool consumption in 1948 was cent of that of the shorn product. Produc- almost identical with that of the previous tion dropped from 73.5 million pounds year, apparel wool had dropped by almost in 1944 to less than half as much (36.4 8 per cent and carpet types had increased million pounds) in 1949. by almost 13 per cent. A further decline Wool Consumption, United States. in 1949 brought consumption to a level —Use of apparel wool by United States just over 50 per cent of that for 1946. mills declined from 1918 to 1934. This Part of the decline was probably the re- trend then reversed, and before the out- sult of lowered retail sales. Decreases in break of World War II mills used in- inventories of manufacturing and distri- creasing amounts. Raw materials fed bution channels undoubtedly slowed do- into the mills began to increase sharply mestic consumption estimates. In the late in 1941, and by 1942 this raw product summer and fall of 1949, consumption was over twice what it had averaged in began to increase and this increase con- the 1935-1939 period. The demands of tinued into 1950. war kept consumption high. This high The declining amounts used from 1918 consumption continued on into 1946 to 1934 were in reality a decline in for- when all records were broken, consump- eign wools, as the domestic product

Table 1 1 —Wool Production (Shorn), United States and California

Relative changes Period United States California United States California

Million pounds 1935-1939 = 100

Averages 1925-1929 291 23 81 96 1930-1934 364 24 101 100 1935-1939 359 24 100 100 1940-1944 373 23 104 96

Annual: 1945 308 20 86 83 1946 280 18 78 75 1947 253 15 70 62 1948 234 14 65 58 1949 217* 15 60 62

1950 212 f

* Preliminary.

t Estimated.

[42] actually increased during those years. low. The increased population will be a Close to 80 per cent of the apparel wool factor in the future. Unless unforeseen used in 1935-1939 was domestic. The developments should occur, indications upward trend in use of domestic wools are that the demands from mills will be continued through 1942. The jump in larger in the future than they were before the war years was accomplished largely the war. with foreign wools; the domestic product Stocks of Wool.—One cause for the declined actually as well as relatively grower's uncertainty has been future wool from 1942 through 1946. In the years of prices. Part of the fear expressed by largest consumption (1942-1946, inclu- sheepmen just after the war arose from sive) 72 per cent of all the apparel wool reports of wool supplies both abroad and consumed in this country was of foreign in this country. origin. From 1947 through 1949, the The International Wool Study Group amount of foreign wool consumed de- estimates that, on the average, during the clined relatively more than that of do- five years 1934-1935 through 1938-1939 mestic. the world had a balance or stock of 1,913 As already emphasized, different grades million pounds of wool (grease basis) of of wool are used by the country's mills. which 1,713 million pounds were ap- Since 1918 there has been a relative in- parel type wools. At the end of the fiscal crease in the amount of fine wool con- year 1946-1947, the balance was 4,674 sumed and a relative decrease in the million pounds—almost two and one-half medium wools—both apparel types. The times the prewar amount. Of the latter, percentage of coarse wools shows a small 4,474 million pounds were apparel wools. increase. It was commonly estimated that at least Carpet wool complicates the consump- 12 years would be required to dispose of tion picture. Confusion is particularly this stock. However, with consumption evident when consumption or imports exceeding production each year since, are discussed. There is no tariff on carpet stocks have been declining rapidly. Esti- wool. It is important to emphasize that mates place the world total on hand at the carpet wools are not produced in the end of the 1949-1950 year at 2,648 mil- United States. Such wool is not in com- lion pounds, of which 2,448 million petition with apparel wool. Carpet wool pounds will be apparel wool. consumption drops during war and in In the United States, reported stocks periods of low income, and rises in peri- of apparel wool averaged 109 million ods of "prosperity." A low of 33 million pounds (clean basis) in the 1935-1939 pounds was consumed in 1943. Only 156 period. All of this was privately owned. million pounds were consumed in 1945, With the outbreak of the war in Europe, but by 1948 all previous records were stocks began to accumulate and by April

shattered with a consumption of 207 mil- 1, 1944, they had reached 408 million lion pounds, followed by an appreciable pounds, a large part of which belonged to drop in 1949. the government. Those wools belonging Opinions differ as to future wool con- to foreign governments were not included sumption. In the 1935-1939 period, 2.2 in these totals. By 1946, the stocks had pounds of apparel wool per capita were reached 421 million pounds. As with used, while in 1947 the amount was 3.5 world stocks, those in the United States

pounds (scoured basis). A program of began to decline until by April 1, 1950, military preparedness would make for a they were down to 143 million pounds- considerable demand. The level of con- compared with 346 million pounds two sumer income will be an important factor years earlier. Expressed in another man-

in keeping civilian consumption high or ner, April 1, 1950, stocks would have [43] : :

kept mills running for 17 weeks, as com- increased until, in 1931, it was double pared with 30 weeks a year earlier. what it had been in 1911. There were no In addition to the stocks enumerated marked changes until World War II above, the United Kingdom at one time started. Unlike that of so many agricul- (June, 1943) had a stockpile of 518 mil- tural products, wool production did not lion pounds (grease basis) of Australian, expand during the recent war. In fact, a New Zealand, and South African wool downward trend started and gained speed stored in the United States. This British- with the coming of peace. By 1948, Cali- owned stockpile has since been removed. fornia production was lower than it had Wool stocks in the United Kingdom as been since 1917. In 1949, for the first well as in other consuming countries were time in several years, production was relatively low in the first part of 1950. higher than it was in the previous year. California Production.—In Califor- Textiles in Competition.—Of im- nia, wool was one of the first agricultural portance to the wool industry is the com- commodities produced. In the 75 years petition among the various fibers- of Spanish and Mexican rule, the sheep animal, vegetable, and synthetic (table industry expanded to a peak reached 12). This competition has been evident, sometime between 1810 and 1830, after in certain areas, for over 100 years. It which it declined. The American occupa- has been stimulated by improvements in tion encouraged production in relatively production and processing of vegetable "new" areas, so that by 1876 an all-time fibers and, in recent years, by the appear- production peak was reached. A steady ance of synthetic and regenerated fibers decline then set in and continued until in the struggle. The second animal fiber, 1911. For the next 20 years, production silk, for years fought almost a losing bat-

Table 12—Estimated Per-capita Consumption of Wool, Cotton, Silk, and Rayon, United States

(All data are in pounds)

Wool (scoured basis) Period Cotton Silk Rayon Apparel Carpet Total

Averages 1910-1919 3.1 27.9 0.4 * 1920-1929 2.3 0.8 3.1 26.6 0.6 0.5 1930-1939 1.9 0.6 2.5 23.4 0.5 2.0

Annual 1940 2.3 0.7 3.1 29.8 0.4 3.6 1941 3.9 1.0 4.8 38.7 0.2 4.4 1942 4.2 0.3 4.5 41.6 4.6 1943 4.3 0.2 4.5 38.4 * 4.8 1944 4.2 0.3 4.5 34.5 5.1 1945 4.2 0.4 4.6 32.2 5.5 1946 4.3 0.9 5.2 33.8 0.1 6.2 1947 3.6 1.2 4.8 32.2 6.8 * 1948 3.3 1.4 4.7 30.3 7.8 1949 2.3 1.1 3.4

* Less than 0.1 pound.

[44] tie, and World War II almost dealt it the tionable. The fibers which have made the final blow. In the struggle in the coming greatest increases have been man-made, years, it appears that vegetable and man- and these have continued to increase in made fibers will be substituted wherever relative importance—from about .2 of 1 possible for wool. Wool is more expensive per cent of all major clothing fiber pro- to produce, and its production cannot be duction in the world prior to World War expanded as much nor as rapidly as can I, to a 15.3 per cent share in 1941 produc- that of the competing fibers. It would tion, ahead of wool! not appear that the high wool consump- Relative prices of the cotton, wool, ar- tion of 1941-1946 would Continue at the tificial, and regenerated fibers from 1939 same level in the future even with a con- to 1949 help explain the trends in the tinued high level of purchasing power. uses of fibers over the past few years. The

It is estimated that since 1920, wool has 1949 wool prices (producers') were at constituted between 14 and 15 per cent least double what they had been in 1939, of the major clothing fibers of the world. those of cotton were over three times In the five years, 1935-1939, the estimate higher, while those for rayon (viscose rose to slightly over 15 per cent. Cotton rayon staple) had increased only about evidently decreased in importance, espe- 50 per cent. It would appear that this cially during the World War II years— trend in rayon prices (also in substitutes' an abnormal period. Whether or not prices) has exerted some pressure on cotton will remain in a lesser role is ques- wool prices.

WOOL MOVEMENTS

The United States is becoming more and more dependent upon foreign wool. Imports are chiefly from South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, and Uruguay.

World Movements.—Wool moves high tariff duties, in 1930, and the drop in volume from the five principal surplus- in business activities no doubt hastened producing countries—Australia, New Zea- the decline. It was in the 1930's that do- land, South Africa, Argentina, and mestic production increased. From 1933 Uruguay—into the highly industrialized until 1939, imports were variable. The United Kingdom, United States, France, draft, defense preparations, and the out- the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy. Be- break of World War II caused wool im- fore the war, Germany was among the ports to soar, and by 1941 all previous major importers. In general, the imports records had been broken. As already have returned to prewar levels, except shown, imports made possible the tre- those to Germany, which will probably mendous rise in mill consumption during continue to lag. In recent years the seven the war years. Average annual duty-paid importing countries named have absorbed imports for the 1942-1946 period were between 85 and 90 per cent of the exports approximately 700 million pounds, com- from the five surplus-producing countries. pared with 376 million pounds during the Wool Imports and Exports, United previous high-import period—1915-1919. States.—Imports of apparel wool have The 1947 imports were over 40 per cent been fairly definite in trend over the past lower than those in 1946. This decline in 30 or 40 years. Wars have increased de- apparel wool imports continued, caused mands for wool. A 1918 peak in imports by the drop in business activity in the was followed by an irregular decline that United States in the latter part of 1948 reached an extreme low in 1934. New and the first part of 1949, and the higher [45] wool prices abroad. In 1949, duty-paid to less than 50 per cent of the 1948 figure. imports were less than 70 per cent of Exports of apparel wool were small what they had been in 1948. With do- during the past 25 years because domestic mestic stocks and production at low prices were relatively higher than export levels, it seems highly probable that im- prices. Wool manufacture exports in- ports in 1950 would increase materially. creased during the war, but shipments If mill demands remain on a level as high before 1939 had not been large. as or higher than those of prewar years, International Relations.—While it relatively large imports will have to con- is outside the scope of this publication to tinue for some time—especially if sheep discuss policies, nevertheless the inter- numbers in the United States remain low. national relations of wool may affect the Carpet wool imports have varied sig- position of the United States in foreign nificantly from those of apparel wools. In trade. Wool is produced (for export) war periods, imports have dropped while predominantly in "sterling" areas and is at other times they have been strongly an "earner of dollars." On the basis of influenced by the level of business activ- value, wool has accounted for as much ity and consumer incomes. Government as one third the total exports of Australia, restrictions on the manufacture of certain South Africa, and Uruguay and one types of textiles, as during World War II, fourth those of New Zealand in some of had an adverse effect on imports. Imports the past few years. The position of wool began to rise at the close of the war, and is in distinct contrast to that of cotton, reached what was probably an all-time which is exported in large volume from peak in 1948, but declined again in 1949 the United States.

WOOL PRICES

Factors affecting world prices of wool affect United States prices, as do movements in wool tariffs. When prices go up, consumers turn to sub- stitute fibers, and competition increases.

World and United States Whole- through April, 1949, they were almost 14 sale Prices.—The"world-wide"position per cent higher than they had been a year of wool has been emphasized throughout earlier. this publication. United States depend- In September, 1949, the dollar value ence on foreign wool supplies has made of the pound was lowered. This was fol- for a high correlation between world lowed by other devaluations of foreign prices and those at the principal United currencies. Foreign wool prices declined States market, Boston (fig. 17), even in the United States. A material strength- though the grades for which prices are ening of prices occurred in the United shown are not identical. Because of this, Kingdom in the fall and winter of 1949- a tariff can be effective in raising prices 1950, with a firming of United States to growers in the United States. In the prices in all major postwar years, prices in the United King- prices. In mid-1950, dom increased more rapidly than did producing countries rose sharply, accom- foreign those in the United States, and in 1948 panied by a rise in domestic and and the first part of 1949 they were wool prices at home. actually higher. While British prices Producer Prices, United States.— weakened somewhat from February Few agricultural products have so many [46] FIGURE 17—WHOLESALE PRICES OF WOOL AT BOSTON (64s AND FINER) AND LONDON (64's-70's)

PRICE PER POUND $2.00

1.60 -

1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

different price series as does wool. Any sion low to 20.6 cents in 1933—a rise of series, such as that paid producers, is over 150 per cent above the previous useful only in showing general move- year—decreased wool requirements of ments. Buyers and sellers, in arriving at mills sent prices from 32.0 cents in 1937 a price, consider not only the prices for to 19.1 cents in 1938. The recovery various grades of wool on the clean basis through 1939 was not rapid. In the pre- but they also evaluate the grades and war period, 1935-1939, wool was not in shrinkage of each lot. The price paid pro- a particularly favorable price situation ducers for wool in the United States is on (table 13). a grease basis. On account of the military demands

Few prices of agricultural commodities and the almost critical need for wool, it dropped to such relatively low levels in has generally been assumed that the prod- the early 1930's as those of wool. The uct would be in a more favorable position average price paid United States farmers in war than in peace, but this was not the in 1932 was 8.6 cents per pound—less situation with domestic wool from 1941 than 22 per cent of that received in 1925. through 1945. It appears that the general price level The outbreak of war sent wool prices affects the price of wool materially, as do to higher levels, but the advance was far the real incomes of nonfarm people. In less than it had been from 1914 to 1918 addition, the volume of production and (fig. 18) . Growers' prices in the five years prices of competing products exert an in- 1942-1946 were kept on a fairly even keel fluence. largely as a result of purchases made by During the remainder of the 1930's, the Commodity Credit Corporation. The prices were lower than those in the latter 1947 prices were slightly lower than those part of the 1920's. Although wool prices of the previous year, and they did not recovered very rapidly from the depres- strengthen materially until 1948. Firm

47 : :

prices prevailed during the first half of diversity in climate, altitude, soil types, 1949. A considerable softening occurred and so forth results in many different in the second half. In the first half of systems of management as well as the 1950, prices had again firmed and were raising of several different breeds of above the level of the previous year. sheep. The practice of shearing twice a There seems to be little question that year in some sections and once a year in one of the contributing factors to the others causes the length of fiber to vary decline in sheep numbers was the rela- as much as the grade and character. tively low producer's price for wool. In The movements of California prices addition, there was considerable uncer- have been similar to those for the entire tainty about future prices. There was a country. A relative increase has taken wide gap between the parity ratio for place in the California producers' prices wool and that for all farm products under received over the period since about parity during many of the recent years. 1935. It is difficult to find reasons for

This can be explained by the fact that some of this improvement, but there is no parity was based on the average price for doubt that emphasis on shearing, han- wool from August, 1909, to July, 1914, dling, and care has shown tangible re- which was only 13.3 cents per pound. sults. Increased competition in buying This was one of the fundamental reasons and a closer appraisal of shrinkage may why wool producers sought a new parity have been contributing factors. The in- standard. creased demand for fine wools in the California Producer Prices.—The world as well as in the United States California wool clip probably varies more undoubtedly affected California prices. than that of any other state. The great The state sends sizable amounts of wool

Table 13—Farm Prices of Wool, California and the United States

Excess Relative changes United States Period California United States over California California United States

Cents per pound 1935-1939 = 100

Averages 1910-1914 14.6 17.6 + 3.0 61 74 1915-1919 34.2 39.4 + 5.2 144 165 1920-1924 31.4 33.2 + 1.8 132 139 1925-1929 33.0 34.0 + 1.0 139 142 1930-1934 14.8 16.8 + 2.0 62 70 1935-1939 23.8 23.9 + 0.1 100 100 1940-1944 37.8 37.6 -0.2 159 157 1945-1949 * 45.8 44.9 -0.9 192 188

Annual 1945 44.0 41.9 -2.1 185 175 1946 44.0 42.3 -1.7 185 177 1947 43.0 42.0 -1.0 181 176 1948 48.0 48.8 + 0.8 202 204 1949* 50.0 49.3 -0.7 210 206

* Preliminary.

[48] FIGURE 18—PRODUCERS' WOOL PRICES (UNITED STATES AND CALIFORNIA), WOOL PRODUCTION (UNITED STATES) CENTS MILLION PER POUND POUNDS 60 525

1 K 1 1 / % /- PRICES, UNITED STATES L\/ PRODUCTION, 50 /* 475 /A \| S , UNITED STATES / / 1 ••'"N^-

•1 " i 40 »/ %•••" 425 If * / \ If V Mk * if \v*T »•* / \ If m 30 f \# • V • 375 \ // • / • *• • f •

A . / V • 20 K • 325 • 1 xy*ZJ • ...... \ V 275 PRICES, CALIFORNIA

1 1 1

i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i ' 1 1 1 1 1 225 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 to the nation's mills as well as to the wool and usually somewhat lower during the markets, such as Boston and Philadelphia. last four months of the year. The sharp advance which started in Governmental Actions.—Few, if May, 1950, had, by August, brought Cali- any, agricultural products have been the fornia producer prices to one of the high- subject of as much political and economic est levels on record. This price rise controversy as wool. Wool duties (carpet accompanied a similar upturn through- wool excepted) have been the concern out the United States and an even steeper of every tariff act of the United States gain in some of the major foreign pro- for over a century. The Tariff Act of ducing countries, such as Australia. 1930 placed a duty on wool imports which On account of the very wide variation was probably the highest in the history between wool prices and areas, any com- of wool duties. Before World War II, the parisons such as those made in Figure 19 Commodity Credit Corporation's loan should be used cautiously. In the nation program on wool had been in effect. With and in the West, Montana and Texas are the approach of war and actual participa- first in the average price received by pro- tion in it, certain other governmental ducers for wool in 1947-1949. In the actions were put into effect to increase native sheep states, Pennsylvania and supplies. Domestic wool production was Virginia stand out. The variability in encouraged by military contracts requir- type, shrinkage, cleanliness, and other ing the use of domestic wool. Imports of qualities partially accounts for some of wool were encouraged and stockpiled. the price differences. The Pennsylvania Certain increases in price on wool tex- clip originates from fine wool sheep and tiles were permitted in order to encourage has a low shrinkage, while the Virginia production. Civilian quotas for wool use wool is especially clean. were established. Farm prices of wool in Before the war, producer prices were the United States were kept from declin- higher during March, April, and May, ing by allowable purchases of the Com- [49] FIGURE 19—AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICES FOR WOOL, 1947-1949

LEGEND Cents per pound | Under 43 1 Between 43 and 45.9

46 " 48.9 ] 49 and above

modity Credit Corporation. Allocations 1951 is 45.2 cents per pound, which is of wool to mills, and pricing of garments 90 per cent of the parity price of 50.2 on were put in operation. March 15, 1950. This compares with Since the close of the war, govern- a price of 42.3 cents in 1949-1950. mental acts have continued to affect the Through the first half of 1950, wool wool industry. The Agricultural Act of prices were above the support price. 1949 directs the Secretary of Agriculture If government policy with regard to to use a support price between 60 and 90 wool is to keep the price at a level that per cent parity to encourage an annual will bring production up to 360 million production of 360 million pounds of pounds of shorn wool annually, it will shorn wool. This is the long-range pro- require the keeping of from 45 to 46 mil- gram for wool. The production goal is lion sheep. The average number in the only slightly below the average of the ten ten-year period 1935-1944 was close to years 1938-1947, but far above the aver- 46 million. age of the five years 1945-1949. The Sec- The nature of the industry is such that retary of Agriculture determined that the only a moderate annual increase in pro- price support for 1950 wool production duction can be obtained under any cir- would be at 90 per cent of the parity price cumstances. Within a two-year period, (the "new" parity price, using a ten-year the maximum feasible increase from moving average of prices) . The program flocks on hand would probably not be went into effect on April 1, 1950, and will over 20 per cent. It is highly probable extend to March 31, 1951. Purchase that, if the section of the Agricultural prices for the various grades of wool Act of 1949 relating to production is car- were based upon the grade differentials ried through, the goal of 360 million established by market prices for wool pounds of shorn wool cannot be reached during 1949. The support price for 1950- before 1955. [50] CONTENTS Page Page Sheep Numbers 4 Sheep and Lamb Prices 30 Distribution 4 California Producer Prices Changes in Numbers and for Lambs 30 Distribution 5 Geographic Distribution of

Trends in California Sheep Lamb Prices 32 Numbers 7 Seasonal Variation in Lamb and Sheep Prices 32

Composition of Sheep Numbers. . . 8 Spring Lamb Prices 33 Stock Sheep 8 Sheep Prices 34 Sheep and Lambs on Feed .... 11 Governmental Actions 34

Producers and Size of Operations . . 13 Retail Meat Prices 34 Number of Producers 13 United States 34 Numbers per Farm or Operation 13 Retail Lamb Prices 34 The Crop 14 Lamb Factors Influencing Retail United States Lamb Crops 14 Meat Prices 36 California Lamb Crops 14 Costs in the Sheep Industry 37 Percentage Lamb Crop 15 Cash Farm Costs 37 Changes in Production Period. . . 16 Cash Costs Other than Labor .... 38

Movements of Sheep and Lambs. . 17 Sheep and Lamb Marketings .... 17 Meat and Wool Income 39

Shipments of All Sheep Wool Production and Consumption 40 into California 19 World Wool Production 40 In-shipments of Slaughter World Consumption of Wool ... 41 Animals 20

Wool Production, United States . . 41 Stocker and Feeder In-shipments 20 Wool Consumption, United States 42 Shipments Out of California .... 21 Stocks of Wool 43 Sheep and Slaughter Lamb 23 California Production 44 United States Slaughter 23 Textiles in Competition 44 Farm Slaughter 23 Movements Commercial Slaughter 23 Wool 45 World Movements 45 Slaughter in California 24 Wool Imports and Exports, Changes in Lamb Weights 27 United States 45

Lamb and Mutton Consumption. . . 27 International Relations 46 Meat Production and Wool Prices 46 Consumption, United States. . 27 World and United States Lamb and Mutton Consumption . . 28 Wholesale Prices 46 Regional Consumption of Lamb and Mutton 29 Producer Prices, United States . . 46 Factors Influencing Lamb and California Producer Prices .... 48 Mutton Consumption ...... 29 Governmental Actions 49

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