Life Science Journal 2013;10(3) http://www.lifesciencesite.com Pakistan’s Hydro Potential and Energy Crisis Tahir Mahmood 1, Hasham Khan 2, Mohammad Ahmad Choudhry 1 1. Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Taxila 47050, Pakistan 2. Department of Electrical Engineering, GCT, Abbottabad, Pakistan [email protected] Abstract: Pakistan has abundant water resources. Hydro-potential resources can play effective role in contributing towards energy security as well as energy independence of Pakistan. This research paper delineates hydro potential in Pakistan. At present, Pakistan is facing severe short fall of electric energy. A brief history and the present situation of the hydro-electricity production, its consumption in the country and importance of utilization of water resources for the production of electric power have been discussed. Predictions to solve energy crises are made on the basis of empirical data and preliminary observations. The root causes of the shortfall in energy generation, an estimated forecast of demand and generation of electricity for the next twenty years has also been predicted. Energy projections have been discussed in detail. [T. MAhmoo, H. Khan, M.A. Choudhry. Pakistan’s Hydro Potential and Energy Crisis. Life Sci J 2013;10(3):1059-1069] (ISSN:1097-8135). http://www.lifesciencesite.com. 154 Keywords: Energy crisis, electricity generation, hydro potential. 1. Introduction facing by the whole world now a day. At present, the Pakistan, at present facing serious short fall duration of forced load shedding in peak season is of electric energy and this has evolved as crises. All between 8 hrs to 10 hrs in urban areas while 16 hrs to kinds of industries as well as common man had been 18 hours in rural areas. Lack of management and facing difficulties to alive. The reason is that no planning are the main causes of the above mentioned worthwhile steps have been initiated to install new circumstances. Main technical causes of the shortfall hydel capacity to meet the demand. As a result, the of energy in Pakistan are the followings; frequent power shutdowns; “load-shedding” is a Insufficient installed generation capacity, common phenomenon throughout the country. Transmission system unable to transmit the Pakistan needs a total of 14000-15000 MW of load imposed, electricity per day, and the demand is likely to raise Substantial distribution system of power approximately 20,000 MW per day by 2020. supply, and Presently, the power producing capacity is 11500 MW Neglecting the Hydel potential in the country. per day and thus there is a shortfall of about 2500- Apart from technical causes, the management 3500MW per day. The shortage of electricity is badly related problems are also playing key role in the affecting not only the industry but also the commerce present energy crisis. Some of these causes are: and daily life of the people. The investment of foreign Faulty management information system, investors in the industrial sector is also poor. Inaccurate forecast and failure of future Therefore, drastic steps are required in-order to planning, explore all available energy resources particularly, No expansion in the existing transmission / Hydro. To resolve the energy deficient, Government distribution networks and grid stations, of Pakistan (GoP) considering two options; 1.) to Unavailability of sufficient financial import electric energy from neighboring countries resources, and (Iran and Central Asian Republics) and, 2.) using indigenous sources, such as, Hydel, coal, waste, wind, Rapid and uncontrolled increase in the solar power, nuclear power, and biomass for population. production of energy [1]. Although, Pakistan poses In the June 2012, the country is facing about greater wind potential than India, yet India has 5000 MW power supply shortage - the most severe become the fourth largest installed capacity of wind energy crisis to ever hit in the country’s history [9]. power in the world [2-8]. Needless to say that if the The occurrence of prolonged and frequent power country desires to accelerate its economic growth and outages have negative impact on industry operation, need to improve the living standard of people, it has to the economy and the livelihood of common citizens, make serious efforts towards framing a coherent in general. While the energy shortage continues to energy policy for utilizing rich Hydel potential in the grow, abundant indigenous sustainable energy country. Energy crisis is the most burning issue that is resources such as Hydel, wind, solar, biomass are yet http://www.lifesciencesite.com 1059 [email protected] Life Science Journal 2013;10(3) http://www.lifesciencesite.com to be utilized [10]. The government is striving to and residential consumers of the metropolitan city of promote sustainable energy in Pakistan. Currently, Karachi and its suburbs. Control of KESC was taken approximately 60% of power generation in Pakistan is by Government of Pakistan in 1952. In 1958, Water derived from fossil fuels (primarily oil and gas) and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was followed by hydroelectricity (35%) and nuclear created as semi-autonomous body for the purpose of energy (2.84%). Table 1 shows the electric power coordinating and giving unified direction to the production by different sectors in Pakistan by the year development of schemes for water and power sectors. 2009. The country’s maximum generation between In 1959, the generation capacity had increased to 119 2001to 2008 is given in Table 2. Table 2 also shows MW and by that time the country had entered the the share of main power producer companies in the phase of development. All of the main projects of country i.e. WAPDA (water and power development power development were undertaken by WAPDA for authority) and KESC (Karachi electric supply executing number of Hydel and thermal generation company). The forecast for demand and also for the projects. After the completion of first five years of its generation for year 2009 to 2030 is given in Table 3. operation by 1964-65, the electricity generation Table 2 and Table 3 shows that Pakistan’s installed capability rose to 636 MW from 119 MW in 1959, generating capacity have been increased but the and power generation to about 2,500 MWh from 781 shortfall is still there [11].The peak demand projection MWh. Under the supervision of WAPDA, the of the country is shown in Figure 1. numbers of electrified villages in the country were 609 2. Brief History which were increased to 1882 villages (688,000 Hydro power is the most significant, cost consumers) by the year 1965. With the increase of effective and environmental friendly renewable source electric generation and the rapid progress witnessed a of electrical power. It is robust and has minimum new life to the socio-economic structure of the maintenance as well as operational cost. In 20th country. Mechanized agriculture started, century, the massive obstacle of rock, concrete and industrialization setup and general living standards earth were developed across the river and stream improved. In the year 1970, the generating capability valleys to establish huge artificial lacks for obtaining rose from 636 MW to 1331 MW with installation of a electrical energy, for irrigation and to control floods. number of Hydel and thermal power units. By the end On the other hand, the dams flooded large area of of the year 1980, the country generation capacity fertile land and displaced thousand of local touched 3,000 MW which rapidly rose to 7,000 MW inhabitants. The useful life of dams is reduced due to in 1990-91. Meanwhile, the electricity consumption in silting [12]. Pakistan has been growing at a higher rate compared Waterwheel is being utilized in many parts of to economic growth due to the increasing the world since the time of immemorial, mainly for urbanization, industrialization and rural electrification. milling grains. Continued development in the From 1970 to the early 1990s, the supply of electricity technology during the19th century combined with the was unable to keep pace with demand that was need to develop smaller and higher speed devices to growing consistently at 9-10% per annum. In the early generate electricity result in the development of 1990s, the peak demand exceeded supply capability modern turbine. Most probably the first hydro turbine by about 15-25%, necessitating load shedding (force was designed in France in the 1820’s by Benoit load interruption) of about 1500-2000 MW. The main Fourneyron. The most prestigious period of hydel reason was the inability of the public budget to power was the early first half of 20th century. At acquire the high investment of the power sector. present the concerns about the global warming has let During the 1990s, the economic growth rate of the attention of engineers towards the renewable Pakistan declined to a level of 4-5% per annum from a energy resources, Hydel is one of those [12]. A report level of 6% per annum in the 1980s. In order to published in the international journal of hydro power overcome the power shortage in the minimum and dams indicates that the world’s hydro potential is possible time, the Government established an Energy estimated to be a 14370 TWH/year out of which the Task Force in 1993 to make consolidated and economical most feasible proportion is comprehensive policy for revamping the energy 8080TWH/year [13]. sector. As a result, “Policy Framework and Package of At the time of independence in 1947, Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Pakistan inherited 60MW of electric power generation Projects” was established in 1994. The main objective capability for a population of 31.5 million, yielding of this was to attract large scale private sector 4.50 kWh per capita consumption. Karachi Electricity induction in power development. According to this Supply Company (KESC) was the main share holder policy, a number of other incentives to attract foreign for electric power generation, transmission and investment in the power sector were given.