Is the United States Losing Turkey?
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WHITE PAPER HUDSON Spring 2007 INSTITUTE IS THE UNITED STATES LOSING TURKEY? RAJAN MENON Monroe J. Rathbone Professor of Inter national Relations, Lehigh University Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute S. ENDERS WIMBUSH Director, Center for Future Security Strategies, Hudson Institute Is The United States Losing Turkey? RAJAN MENON Monroe J. Rathbone Professor of International Relations, Lehigh University, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute S. ENDERS WIMBUSH Director, Center for Future Security Strategies, Hudson Institute Executive Summary is facing up to this reality, let alone taking serious remedial measures, nor even making concerted efforts n February 5th and 6th, 2007, the Hudson to understand the new political currents within each Institute, with support from the Smith other’s societies. O Richardson Foundation, convened a small If this neglect continues, the price paid by both sides workshop of noted specialists on Turkey, Europe, and will be steep. It is becoming increasingly clear that international security to assess the state of America’s Washington and Ankara see the world and define their alliance with Turkey and, more specifically, to ascer- interests in divergent ways. If allowed to continue, this tain whether the United States risks “losing” Turkey trend could well undo the alliance. The good news is as a long-time and critical ally. The workshop was that there is still time to act, providing senior leaders part of a project directed by Rajan Men on, professor on both sides move with dispatch. It is urgent that they of international relations at Lehigh University and do so, for despite the end of the Cold War, which adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute. S. Enders Wim- provided a clear rationale for their alliance for four bush, director of the Center for Future Security decades, Ankara and Washington still need each other, Strategies at the Hudson Institute, served as chairman perhaps more so because they now face multiple and of the workshop. This report, while it draws on the unfamiliar threats, not least those posed by terrorism. discussions that occurred during the workshop, is an The most important source of discord between independent analysis written by Messrs. Menon and Turkey and the United States is the war in Iraq. Wimbush. The memoranda prepared by the experts in Ankara fears that Iraq will break up as a result of the advance of the workshop and the list of participants war and that a separate Kurdish state will arise, creat- appear in the appendix to this document. ing even greater disorder and stoking separatist senti- The alliance between the United States and Turkey, ment in Turkey’s southeast, and increasing paramili- which has endured since the 1947 Truman Doctrine tary and terrorist attacks by the Kurdish separatist and has contributed to the security of both countries, organization, the PKK. Washington, for its part, feels is now in serious trouble. What is worse, neither side betrayed by the Turkish parliament’s rejection of its HUDSON INSTITUTE 1 Spring 2007 HUDSON INSTITUTE 2 Spring 2007 request to open a second front from Turkey’s territo- • Establish high-level joint working groups that are ry against Saddam Hussein’s army in the run-up to the tasked with proposing concrete measures to safeguard 2003 war. But more fundamentally, the Bush admin- the alliance and to ensure its relevance for the post- istration is preoccupied by the wars in Iraq and Cold War world. Afghanistan and seems to have relegated Turkey to the back burner—or so it appears to many Turks. • Make Turkey a central partner in fashioning a polit- The widespread belief among Turks that the United ical settlement in Iraq and engage in regular consulta- States undertook the Iraq war without regard to the tions and joint planning to this end. consequences for Turkey’s security and that Wash - ington now seeks to punish it for the Turkish parlia- • Work with both the Kurdistan Regional Govern - ment’s vote has created enormous resentment toward ment (KRG) in northern Iraq and the Turkish leader- the United States. This sentiment is reflected across ship to prevent the dispute over the oil-rich city of the political spectrum. It is evident among elites, in- Kirkuk in northern Iraq (contested by the Kurds and cluding the leadership of the Turkish military, by the Turkmen, who are supported by Turkey) from arguably the country’s most influential institution, but precipitating open warfare and possible Turkish inter- also pervades society more generally. Opinion polls vention, which could further dent America’s alliance show that Turks, who once viewed the United States with Turkey. as an ally and friend, increasingly see it not just as unfriendly, but as a direct threat to their national secu- • Fashion a “grand bargain” between the KRG and rity. As a result, influential Turks, government officials Turkey that includes specific and enforceable provi- and foreign policy experts alike, are discussing a stra - sions to assure the KRG that Turkey will not invade tegic reassessment. This reorientation would involve Iraqi Kurdistan to forestall the possibility of an inde- building deep ties with new partners, among them pendent Kurdish state and to guarantee Turkey that Russia, China, Iran, and Syria, and would, moreover, the KRG will not permit the PKK to use northern Iraq abandon the longstanding premise that the United as a base of operations. States remains the indispensable ally. It would be mistaken for the United States to dis- —Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush, miss these discussions as bluster. Turkey remains a 25 March 2007 crucial ally in the struggle against terrorism; it is a sec- ular and democratic Muslim country; it sits atop an arc extending from Israel to Central Asia, a zone of actual or potential upheaval and war; it abuts water- THE PROJECT ways critical to the flow of commerce, particularly oil; its territory is a corridor for the strategically impor- n February 5th and 6th, 2007, the Hudson tant Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline; and its cooperation is Insti tute, with support from the Smith Rich - key to a durable settlement in Iraq and to an effective O ardson Foundation, convened a small work- policy to counter the challenges posed by a resurgent shop of noted specialists on Turkey, Europe, and inter- (and potentially nuclear-armed) Iran. national security to assess the state of America’s alli - Washington must take urgent steps to protect the ance with Turkey and, more specifically, to ascertain US-Turkish alliance from further harm: whether the United States risks ‘losing’ Turkey as a long-time and critical ally. The workshop was part of • Recognize that its alliance with Turkey could be in a project directed by Rajan Menon, professor of inter- jeopardy. national relations at Lehigh University and fellow at the New America Foundation. S. Enders Wimbush, HUDSON INSTITUTE 3 Spring 2007 director of the Center for Future Security Strategies The Islamic party that now governs Turkey favors a at the Hudson Institute, served as chairman of the strong relationship with the United States and had workshop. sought (albeit without success) to convince the In advance of the meeting, the participants were Turkish parliament to authorize the opening of a sec- requested to prepare brief memoranda covering the ond American military front against Saddam Hus - issues that they regard as pivotal to the future of the sein’s army from Turkish soil in March 2003, and is Ankara-Washington alliance. (The list of participants demonstrably committed to gaining membership in and their memoranda are in the appendix.) They the European Union (EU). Still, the domestic sources were asked to address the following points during the of Turkish politics are different now, and this makes workshop itself: for a Turkey that is less familiar, and hence more com- plicated for Americans to understand. • The principal threats to a robust and mutually ben- Whether it is the Kemalists or the Islamists, howev- eficial US-Turkish relationship. er, the possibility that Turkey could reassess its long- standing strategy, which has been anchored in the alli - • Alternative pathways for US-Turkish relations, inclu - ance with the United States, is quite real given that the ding those involving a breakdown of the partnership. bilateral relationship now faces a crisis. Indeed, some of Turkey’s foreign policy choices—which are being • The most important areas of ongoing convergence discussed forthrightly in influential Turkish circles— that continue to provide a solid basis to strengthen the involve reducing its reliance on the United States, or alliance despite the rough waters it is now charting. even turning away from Washington, and deepening ties with America’s competitors. This could precipitate • Policies that could rescue the relationship from its what one of the workshop participants, Ronald Asmus, current troubled state so that it can be revived and dubbed “a strategic rupture.” Accompanying Turkish made relevant to the challenges of the twenty-first discussions about a new strategic orientation has been century. the growth a deep anti-Western, and specifically anti- American, mood—one that now shapes the thinking There was a strong consensus among the participants of Turks, regardless of political persuasion, and that that the US-Turkish alliance is at a crossroads and has sunk deep roots among the Kemalists (civilian and that, unless the problems plaguing it are given imme- military), America’s traditional interlocutors. diate attention and corrective measures are taken, a These threats to the alliance seem to go unnoticed strategic partnership that has endured for a generation by American leaders (both Democrats and Repub - could dissolve, with Turkey rethinking its foreign and licans) or are noted but regarded as little more than a national security strategy in ways that involve new rough patch that does not threaten the fundamentals priorities and partners.