Understanding Best Practice in Strategic Futures Work

Future Perspectives

Understanding Best Practice in Strategic Futures work A Futures Perspective Reprint Andrew Curry UK Head of Futures, Contents 0 The Futures Company Preface November, 2011

Ten years ago The Futures report earlier extensive annexes have 1. Introduction and Methodology Henley Centre - now this year, we realised been weeded, and in a 2. The Objectives and Uses of Strategic Futures Work The Futures Company - that the lessons it few places some ugly syntax and wayward 2.1. The Limits of the Future spent much of the year captures still hold investigating the value of good, partly because it grammar has been 2.2. Managing Through Turbulence strategic futures work, focuses on processes corrected. 2.3. Timing and Clarity first benchmarking and organisational One of the most 2.4. Using Scenarios to Rehearse the Future futures practice, in both systems, rather than the public and private on techniques, which influential quotes about 2.5. Releasing the Future sector, then identifying tend to be more prone futures work, and one which we come back to 3. The Culture of the Strategic Futures Group what represented best to fashion. We also often, is from the French 3.1. Separate But Connected practice. realised that although it was written for pioneer Gaston Berger: 3.2. Independence and Credibility Our client was Geoff government, much of ‘The purpose of looking at the future is to disturb 3.3. The ‘Shelf-Life’ of Futures Thinking Mulgan, then running the learning applied just the Performance and the present’. Another 4. Strategic Futures Methods and the Organisational Context as well to private sector Innovation Unit in the businesses. pioneer, Pierre Wack, 4.1. Matching the Approach to the Audience British Government’s called futures ‘the gentle art of re-perceiving’. 4.2. Ensuring Ownership Throughout the Organisation Cabinet Office, In re-publishing this and charged with paper to mark its tenth We hope that in re- 4.3. Bringing It Back to Strategy and Policy improving the ability anniversary, as part of publishing this report, 4.4. Tracking the Future of the government our Futures Perspectives it will help you see why, and how. 4.5. Methodological Guidelines to address complex series, we hope to strategic issues. Mulgan help individuals and 5. Engaging The Audience was concerned that organisations think 6. Recommendations for Implementation of Best Practice the government did about value of strategic To talk to The Futures Company about futures or 6.1. The Strategic Futures Journey not think well about futures work, as well as the longer-term, and the purpose, and pitfalls. scenarios projects please 6.2. Action Points for Best Practice wanted to understand We are able to do this contact Andrew Curry in if strategic futures because successive London (+44 (0)20 7955 methods would British governments 1839, andrew.curry@ help. After leaving have adopted a policy thefuturescompany. government service, he of open publication com) or Lloyd Burdett wrote a well-regarded of research which it in New Youk (+1 212 book, The Art of Public has commissioned. In 896 8118, lloyd.burdett@ Strategy. preparing this report thefuturescompany.com) for publication we have Re-reading our made minimal changes Understanding Best to the original. The Practice in Strategic

the strategic futures work is organisations identified in the This section has covered the Practice in Strategic aligned at the start with the benchmarking report, and aims and methodology of this audiences for the work, the reviewed with the Performance project on best practice and needs of the organisation and and Innovation Unit, as offer- how it builds on earlier bench- Futures work its culture. Furthermore, the ing a range of types of best marking work carried out by same organisation may choose practice. Interview respond- The Henley Centre. The report to adopt different approaches ents, and their organisations, now turns to an analysis of the and different techniques at are listed in the Annex II. In findings, culminating at Sec- different times to reach differ- addition, there has been tion 6 with Recommendations 1 ent ends. One size does not fit an active review of relevant for Implementation. all. The question to ask is not literature. simply ‘does it work?’, or even The questions addressed by companies seeking to change ‘will it work for us?’, but ‘how The organisations assessed Introduction the best practice part of the their market position. In will it work for us?’. in the benchmarking exercise project process are as follows: reviewing and assessing best Many public and private sector and selected as examples of practice The Henley Centre organisations engage in strate- best practice come from both Is there best practice out also drew on its experience of gic futures work. They attempt Methodology the public and the private sec- there? current strategic futures work to illuminate and understand tor. The rationale for including for UK public sector clients, The method for the best the future and to use this If so, what are its private companies in the work and similar work with commer- practice stage of the project insight to inform strategy and components? (borne out by the findings) was cial companies. The turbulence has been a mixture of 14 face- policy. In 2001 the Perform- that lessons from best practice How transferable are which strategic futures work to-face and phone interviews ance and Innovation Unit (PIU) in the private sector would these components? seeks to ‘master’ can be about with representatives of the of the Cabinet Office issued have meaning for government. any sort of organisational a brief to benchmark UK Specifically, what can the or external change, whether strategic futures work against UK government learn from market conditions or a newly- that of other countries and to best practice elsewhere? elected mandate, thus best identify best practice in the “The objective is not to forecast the future, practice lessons hold for both use of strategic futures work to for no-one can tell what the future will be. In answering these questions, types of organisation. inform policy making. the intention of this report is The objective is to take responsibility as an to map the findings of the best Those who wish to understand organisation for the future.” The Henley Centre, an practice research in such a quickly the learning from the independent consultancy way that government depart- report in terms of applying Hugues de Jouvenel, Futurible with extensive experience of ments and other public sector best practice to strategic strategic futures work, was organisations can, if they wish, futures thinking in their organi- commissioned to carry out construct their own journey sations should turn directly to the assignment. This report through an effective strategic Section 6, Recommendations on best practice in strategic future thinking process. for Implementation of Best futures work is a companion Practice. This provides a short to our previous report on We sought both private and review of the necessary work ‘Benchmarking UK Strategic public sector examples of best and practice at each stage of Futures Work’, delivered after practice. Strategic futures an effective strategic futures the first phase of the project. work to assist organisations process. That report identified a range to adapt and evolve, applies of futures organisations and to government departments While it is impossible to reduce assessed their main areas of assessing the scope of their the best practice research to a activity, and to a limited degree remit and identifying more ef- single finding, the most impor- their effectiveness. fective ways to tackle complex tant issue for organisations is policy issues in much the same to ensure that the objectives, way that it applies to private output, and methodology of

As part of the earlier – concentrate on illumination uncertainty of not knowing. benchmarking exercise, we and influence, whereas others This immediately creates a segmented strategic futures – the ‘movers’ – concentrate source of disappointment, for work, or organisations which more on enacting change. Of it is never possible to know carry out this work, by the 14 organisations selected the future. A key best practice focusing on the objectives. The for best practice interviews, 6 observation, therefore, is organisation can seek to: aim to illuminate and influence that organisations are able to policy making, 2 also formulate make effective use of strategic Illuminate the future and/or policy, while 6 are involved in futures work only when they issues impacting the future; implementing policy. accept that it is impossible to predict future outcomes. Use strategic futures work to influence policy, either 2.1. The Limits of the The best practice interviews directly or indirectly; Future carried out as part of this future per se, the objective of strategic futures work is Formulate policy using research strongly supported to bring a new set of skills Norway 2030 was initiated in 1998 by strategic futures insight; Organisations embark on this point. As the Scenario strategic futures work because Planning Office of the and perspectives into the the Ministry for Labour and Government Implement policy, using they want to know what the Singapore Government organisation. Hugues de Administration. The project was inspired strategic futures work to Jouvenel of the French future will hold. However, observes, “No-one can predict by the work of the European Commission enact policy change. sometimes they confuse the future because there are group Futuribles explains prediction with understanding. too many uncertainties in our it thus: “The objective is – specifically the European Scenarios 2010 Using this framework, some Managers want to reduce operating environment”. Thus not to forecast the future, project. The objectives were to develop an organisations – the ‘catalysts’ the anxiety caused by the rather than predicting the for no-one can tell what the ‘institutionalised way of thinking about future will be. The objective is to take responsibility as an the future’ and disseminate these skills Figure 1: Objectives of strategic futures work and examples of best practice organisations organisation for the future”. across government ministries. All govern- Jim Dator, Director of the ment ministers were invited to participate Hawaii Research Centre for in the process and 15 out of the 16 accepted Future Studies, puts it even Illuminate Influence Formulate Implement more succinctly: “The single the invitation. The output is a series of five issues policy policy policy best practice is to help the future scenarios about the public sector in organisation become futurists Norway for the year 2030. The scenarios themselves”. are deliberately distinctive and provocative Catalysts Movers The Norway 2030 project, as in order to generate interest and stimulate described by Erik Øverland, new thinking. Measured against the original • Brookings instutute • Outsight • ICL the project leader, is a good objectives, the 2030 project has been a suc- • IVO, University of Tiburg • Forward stufies unit (formerly illustration of using strategic cess as know-how about scenario planning • Futuribles global business • Netherlands futures work to introduce a Hawaii research centre for future network) environmental policy plan new way of thinking into the and strategic futures work has been widely • studies • Sociovision • Netherlands nature management policy making process (see disseminated throughout the Norwegian Norway 2030 and fisheries ministry • Resources for the future • Shell box). government. • Social & cultural planning office (Netherlands) Source: The Henley Centre

6 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 7 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. “When we hit the turbulence the conventional planning tools wouldn’t work. You could have done business, but it 2.2. Managing Through unexpected quarters. Continu- at learning and therefore more wouldn’t have been good business”. Turbulence ous futures thinking improves adaptive. Chris Yapp, ICL an organisation’s agility, enabling it to dance around the Strategic futures work can im- 2.3. Timing and Clarity edge of difficulties. prove an organisation’s ability To maximise the benefits of to think in turbulent environ- In other words strategic strategic futures insight the ments in which uncertainty is futures work enables organisa- work has to be started suf- high and conventional planning tions to see beyond the ‘noise’ ficiently early. The right start tools ineffective. “When we generated by turbulence, and point is when the organisation hit the turbulence”, observes thus respond more quickly identifies that conditions are Chris Yapp, an ICL Fellow, “the to changed circumstances. becoming turbulent. If it waits conventional planning tools Engaging in strategic futures until it feels the fallout from wouldn’t work. You could have work can reduce response the turbulent conditions, it will done business, but it wouldn’t times by helping members of have left it too late. have been good business”. the company become better When turbulence deflects at learning, and therefore intended strategy, strategic The organisation also needs more adaptive. The response to value the thinking which futures thinking allows the or- exposed to external think- While the SCP does scenario about what we can do today time of large organisations to strategic futures work will ganisation to regroup in a new ing by members of their peer planning, it is limited to sce- to prepare for an uncertain significant changes in their generate: like the joke about place, and thereby develop group, through its membership narios which examine Holland, future… Scenario planning external environment can be the lightbulb being changed by new strategic insight from new of programmes such as the and Holland in a European per- helps to free our minds to up to five years. Shell’s target therapists, it really has to want places (see Figure 2 below). MIT Research Programme. On spective. They do not examine expect discontinuities in our was to reduce this to eighteen to change. In the case of ICL, it This is, however, an iterative this and other programmes, global issues and trends unless environment. It approximates months by helping members was crucial that the company’s process; for turbulence can they had met fellow directors they have, or are likely to have, a strategic fire drill – we learn of the company become better directors had already been develop quickly and from of companies such as BP and a clear impact on the Dutch to be forward-looking by ‘living Shell that were already using way of life. This clear remit also in the future’, whilst positioning Figure 2: Managing strategy in times of turbulence strategic futures thinking. ensures that the process does ourselves to react to change It is also important that the not become too open ended. quickly and nimbly”. organisation is both clear and It has a further benefit as well: Possible honest about its objectives by narrowing the range of the As a series of hypothetical emergent with its strategic futures group scenarios, the time required to stories about the future, Ineffective scenarios are relatively strategy or consultants when it starts carry out the work can be kept or negative the project. A number of inter- as short as possible. unthreatening to managers outcome viewees stressed this point: and thus less likely to provoke for example, Gerard de Groot 2.4. Using Scenarios to a defensive response. For from the University of Tilburg Rehearse the Future Shell, this characteristic of Realised strategy cited a project where the scenario planning was critical Intended / New strategic organisation’s agenda was not in enabling senior managers to The best practice interviews consider the potential impact strategy insight made clear from the start. The yielded several examples of result was failure. of dramatic, and thus difficult the effective use of scenario to entertain, changes in the planning to challenge the Finally, the scope should be price of oil. In the event, oil organisation’s mindset and appropriate to the objectives price fluctuations proved as Possible rehearse potential strategies. and to the organisation’s remit. volatile as the scenario work The Singapore Government’s emergent Possible Paul Schnabel, the director of suggested. Shell’s senior Scenario Planning Office strategy emergent the Social and Cultural Plan- management team was better describes scenario planning ning Office of the Netherlands prepared to respond to the strategy as “a set of tools for generating (SCP) underlined this point. situation having rehearsed the Source: Max Boisot, adapted by The Henley Centre a strategic conversation

8 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 9 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. possibilities during the among the scenarios they earlier scenario planning built. They insisted that all 1. Conventional short-term migrate through a exercise. Similarly, scenarios were possible under the right planning processes number of products and proved an effective conditions. To do otherwise amplify the existing services as they evolve. mechanism for Shell to would have invited criticism structures of an For example, DuPont rehearse potential responses from managers who had a organisation because moved from gunpowder to the hypothetical future vested interest in defending managers frequently to chemicals via plastics actions of its competitors. their existing positions. The wish to expand their and car-making. Nokia second involved unpicking the departments. They was a paper and plastics 2.5 Increasing the assumptions that lay beneath therefore search out producer before it became the world’s Receptivity of the the company’s dominant justifications for this view about the likely future, end-position based on largest manufacturer Organisation and showing that they were existing knowledge, of mobile phones. This no more plausible than those Much of the recent thinking in scenarios which had been about organisational behaviour criticised as being far-fetched. has been about how deep- In an analytical organisation, “The single best practice is to help the seated are managers’ this created enough impetus organisation become futurists themselves”. underlying assumptions for managers to start to use Jim Dator, Director of the Hawaii Research Centre about the way in which the thinking in the scenarios for Future Studies an organisation thinks or to question their prevailing behaves, and the behaviours assumptions. it rewards or discourages. An Ironically, the more effective organisation which is certain of the organisation becomes in its own views and assumptions carrying out strategic futures behaviours, and trends, question of organisational will be unresponsive to futures work, the more difficult it may rather than looking at flexibility was reflected thinking. Such an organisation be to recognise its positive wider frames of reference. in the best practice is highly vulnerable in impact. As Ged Davis of Shell Strategic futures work interviews conducted times of turbulence. For puts it: “One of the difficulties looks beyond the existing as part of this research. strategic futures work to of assessing the value of organisational structure For example, Chris Yapp have a significant impact, scenario work is that it’s the and can even point to the detailed ICL’s rapid the organisation has to be dogs that don’t bark that need for organisational evolution from hardware, relatively porous. It needs to matter. It’s the events that change. For example, to software, to services be willing to question its own happen that are a crisis for Chris Yapp detailed how and systems. Its principal views and assumptions, and other people that aren’t a crisis ICL’s risk management competitors of 20 years also be open to influence from for you. It’s quiet preparation group was created ago, in the hardware the outside. ahead of events that matters”. directly as a result of business, such as Wang strategic futures work. and Digital, are no longer If successful, strategic 2.6. Releasing the Risk management is now extant. futures work will enable the a key component of ICL’s organisation to question its Future business strategy. received wisdom and accept new thinking. For example, in Strategic futures work can also 2. It allows the possibility the case of Shell, there were enable an organisation not that a change in direction two elements in the scenario to get trapped by its existing might be necessary planning process that helped structures when thinking for development or achieve this. The first was the about the future. This release survival. Arie de Geus scenario planning group’s happens in two ways: observes that long-lasting refusal to ‘pick a winner’ from companies typically

10 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 11 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. “Best practice occurs when the question ‘has what we’ve done been useful to us?’ is constantly asked”. The Culture of the Strategic Michael Rogers, Group of Policy Advisers 3 Futures Group

3.1. Separate But quoted the benefit of being aptitudes, interests and cultur- Connected able to draw on expertise from al assumptions of individuals across a range of departments working in a strategic futures within the University and from group will tend to be different The extent to which the best a range of other European from those elsewhere in the practice strategic futures universities. organisation. organisations draw on the

language, structures, and prac- Strategic futures work needs tices of academia is striking. to draw from diverse sources, 3.2. Independence and Common features include flat to listen to voices which are Credibility Planning Office (SCP) in the to do this because Santer’s a live issue in the American organisational structures, the not usually heard, whether Netherlands, emphasises that main interests lay elsewhere. political process. value of research sometimes inside or outside the organisa- A number of best practice a completely open process, However, this also meant that undertaken for its own sake tion. These criteria place the interviewees stressed the im- without any government inter- although the output has been The consequences are rather than with an end-prod- work being done outside of the portance of being able to con- vention in either the process admired by colleagues working two-fold. The first is that it uct/user in mind, the diversity usual organisational context, duct research independently or findings is essential to cred- elsewhere on strategic futures, underlines the importance of of staff, the importance of the whether in a corporate or from the interests of clients or ibility. Working with the Central it could have been used more long-term continuity of work. widest possible intellectual public sector environment. sponsors. Their reasoning was Planning Office for Economics widely perhaps by the Euro- The strategic futures group exchange with other organisa- Culturally and psychologically, that there are some subjects and Finance, the SCP provides pean Commission itself. More needs to be able to go to its tions, and the importance of strategic futures work should that a futures-based organisa- an essential service. Its inde- recently closer links with the ‘back catalogue’ and revive effective networks. operate on the edge of the tion will identify as likely to be pendence from government office of the President have and perhaps develop its previ- For example, Gerhard de Groot organisation. (See Figure 3 important even if it has not is critical to its credibility. It is tended to mean that the work ous thinking when this enters of the IVO, an institute located below.) For this reason, the yet started to have an effect free to criticise government being done is at risk of being the policy or strategy environ- within the University of Tilburg, on sponsors. Futuribles, for policy if necessary, thereby influenced by the short-term ment. In the case of RFF, they example, has recently funded ensuring its acceptability by political agenda. have (after almost a half- Figure 3: Operating on the edge of the organisational world a programme of research both the opposition parties century) appointed a Commu- on genomics. The American and the wider research com- 3.3. The ‘Shelf-Life’ of nications Director who is partly organisation Resources for munity. However, it may not be responsible for ensuring that Think Futures Thinking Opinion the Future (RFF) identifies the possible to export this model: past work is utilised when it tanks value of being half-funded by the process and the SCP’s role becomes current in the policy formers Policy processes and political an endowment from the Ford within it may be dependent environment. Dissidents processes move at different Foundation as allowing it to set on the consensual political speeds from each other, and in its own agenda for some of its system in the Netherlands. The second is that the lan- ways which are often unpre- Strategic research work. The Brookings guage which has to be used dictable. As a result, thinking futures Institution similarly has the The Group of Policy Advis- in engaging with practitioners Stakeholders which has emerged previously group freedom to fund the investiga- ers is another interesting and policy-makers is different from strategic futures work tion of areas which are not case study. Its work (as the from the language which may may become current in the currently of interest to the US Future Studies Unit) during be used inside the strategic policy or political environment The government or Congress. the period of Jacques Santer’s futures group. It is best if the Presidency, which included its some years later. RFF, for members of the futures group organisation Critics The point goes beyond the Scenarios 2010, was of high example, quotes the example can be their own advocates, research agenda to the entire quality, and benefited from a of tradeable permits in pollu- but this is not always possible. tion, which their researchers Advocacy strategic futures process. For group working together over developed more than a decade groups example, Paul Schnabel, Direc- a period of time. They had Source: The Henley Centre tor of the Social and Cultural the opportunity and scope ago. This has only now become

12 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 13 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. used by its sponsors. Rog- ers believes the high quality The Hawaii Research Centre was responsible output of the Future of Japan (together with the Institute for Alternative Project was perhaps more Futures) for creating the concept of ‘judicial Strategic Futures Methods and the useful to other countries and organisations than to the Japa- foresight’- incorporating futures studies into 4 Organisational Context nese themselves. The question judicial administrative decision-making. about use and usefulness The approach is designed to enable ‘citizen- should be asked frequently. The need to tailor best practice based visioning of the future.’ It was first “One of the difficulties of assessing the value to the organisational context tried in the Virginia State Legislature, in the means it is not possible to pre- of scenario work is that it’s the dogs that don’t United States. According to Jim Dator, the scribe a particular approach to director of the Hawaii Research Center, the bark that matter. It’s the events that happen government departments as a that are a crisis for other people that aren’t a whole. Rather, by understand- critical factor in its successful adoption by crisis for you. It’s quiet preparation ahead of ing how other organisations Virginia was the continuity of personnel. For have successfully employed events that matters”. example, the Chief Justice remained in place strategic futures work we throughout the process, ensuring that it was Ged Davis, Shell can distil some overarching guidelines. followed through as originally intended. Da- tor cites two other factors as being essential: 4.1. Matching the 1) Having the right structures in place: “It’s Approach to the not enough to count on goodwill, you need Audience real structural change.” 2) Paying people to A key best practice finding is do the work: “It really is that crass – it’s not that the method adopted for about finding a few minutes in the day.” strategic futures work must be credible to the organisation and key audiences. It may also be influenced by the wider and depth is regarded as a is shared with, and tested The earlier Benchmarking Indeed, one of the important Deputy Director of Demos, UK, cultural context, as illustrated virtue, and also the specific by, members of the wider report noted that a number of learnings from the best prac- believes the key to effective by the examples below: history of strategic futures organisation. At one level, it strategic futures methods ex- tice interviews is the specificity futures work is a credible story thinking in France. Fu- is better that future drivers ist. Although scenario planning of strategic futures work. In that captures the audience’s The Brookings Institution, turibles, which emerged at are regarded as conserva- is the most widespread tech- Jim Dator’s phrase, “Images of imagination. This point was which likewise seeks to a time of some political tur- tive. Then, should more nique, trend-impact analysis, the future are highly personal, corroborated by Bob Tyrrell, influence US government bulence in 1960, was able radical scenarios emerge statistical and econometric and the personal is highly cul- (Director of Sociovision), and policy, has no dominant to use future thinking to from the process, these modelling, and Delphi surveys tural”. Erik Øverland of Norway a number of others in the best methodology. Instead the connect both the business scenarios are more likely to are also employed. No single 2030 emphasised that it is practice interviews. Given the methodology for a particu- elite and the political elite in be accepted. Several of our method is universally best for vital to “find your own story”. highly subjective nature of lar project is determined France at a time when they best practice interviewees strategic futures work and a This point is underlined by what constitutes a good story, by the team working it. were largely disconnected. also underlined the impor- combination of techniques Michael Rogers of the Group of the impossibility of prescribing Nonetheless, the weight tance of a firm research may be required. The optimal Policy Advisers (GoPA). Best rules on the ‘right’ methodol- of its work tends towards In The Henley Centre’s basis. This empirical work choice of method depends practice, he suggests, varies ogy begins to emerge. statistical modelling. scenario work with UK acts a springboard for crea- on the organisational context, according to organisation government departments tive thinking and also as a that is, the required objective, type and also by country. The Michael Rogers of the GoPA Within the French con- we have found that it is im- regulator or reality-check the audiences for the work, implication is that it is difficult believes that “Best practice text, in contrast, scenario portant that the analysis of for creative ideas. and the experiences and to transport; each country occurs when the question ’has thinking has significantly the drivers of change, which expectations of those who and each organisation has to what we’ve done been useful more weight. This reflects are typically the founda- have to implement the find a model which works for to us?’ is constantly asked”. both a political and public tions of scenarios, is based findings. it. Dr Ian Christie, the former Otherwise, even though good culture in which complexity on credible research which work can be done, it will not be

14 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 15 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 4.2. Ensuring Owner- ness of the futures group or organisation, and also should ship Throughout the organisation to engage with Richard O’Brien cautions that influence their business the organisation as a whole – neither scenarios nor futures planning processes. As we thinking will write your strat- Organisation and, critically, vice versa. In the noted in the Benchmarking UK egy for you. “Scenarios are not world of the learning organisa- Strategic Futures Report, GBN enough on their own. They act Acceptance of the value of tion, this requires inclusive also favours this approach, as a template, with which you strategic futures thinking in and participatory processes although it cautions that can consider the impact of a an organisation depends on that are designed to engage identifying appropriate metrics new indicator, or test strategic sponsorship by senior mem- members of the organisation and agreeing on them can be thinking”. He gives a contrast- bers of staff. At the same time, throughout. This is as true of difficult. ing view of the scenarios on strategic futures work will fail modelling-based processes as the future of Japan, developed unless it wins the acceptance it is of scenario methods, since The Cowrporate Strategy by GBN in conjunction with the of people throughout the the assumptions underpinning Board argues, “Setting up a Japanese consultancy NIER. organisation. As Glenn, Gordon the model are critical to the scanning system that directly These were written in the mid- and Dator observe in their acceptance within the organi- links scenario planning with 1990s, and are in the public paper ‘Closing the Deal’, one sation of the output, and there- decision-making processes domain. As he observes, “Good of the conditions for success fore need to be tested with minimises the organisation’s scenarios are the continuous is to: “include diverse interest stakeholders. The organisation response times to backdrop to change. You never groups and key actors in the can reinforce this process by opportunities and risks”. Time know when they will pop up research process to make sure identifying a champion from is money: the more quickly an again.” As events develop in that all understand how a con- within it who sponsors the organisation is able to respond, Japan, one can return to the templated decision may affect work without being a member the quicker it will see a return scenarios and interrogate stakeholders… Enlist the sup- of the futures group. on its investment in strategic port of people in the process them as to the direction in futures thinking. In addition, who will use or be affected by which change is heading and some organisations require the activity”. A good example 4.3. Bringing It Back to which decision points have that planning assumptions are of this practice is the judicial Strategy and Policy been reached. tested against the strategic foresight work of the Hawaii futures thinking, and that Research Centre described At the conclusion of strategic 4.4. Tracking the this is one of the gates in the beside. futures work, there are tech- Future planning and development niques which can be used to process. In the work facilitated by The help bring the future thinking Defining and tracking the Henley Centre prior to the For example, DASA, a division back into the strategy process. signals which let you know 2001 election for the Min- of DaimlerChrysler, set up Kees van der Heijden reviews change has been reached istry for Agriculture, Food a Strategic Early Warning a number of tools in his book, makes the strategic futures and Fisheries (MAFF), now System following its scenario Scenarios: The art of strate- process more visible within the Department for Environ- process to track changes in gic conversation, including an organisation even after the ment, Food and Rural Affairs its business environment. The Capability Review, Portfolio work has been completed. (DEFRA), on the future of food company states that one of the Review, Strategic Option Ged Davis of Shell recom- and the rural economy, the benefits was that it enabled Generation, and Strategic Op- mends identifying metrics relationship with the audience them to respond rapidly to the tion Testing. These are familiar which can identify which of a was developed by inviting the Boeing/McDonnell Douglas concepts from more conven- number of scenarios a trend is department’s stakeholders to merger with an immediate tional strategy processes. leaning towards. If this is done become involved in testing the action plan, reassuring their However, because in van der regularly (for example two or scenarios as they emerged. workforce, customers, and Heijden’s approach they follow three times a year) it keeps the shareholders. But even if the a scenario-based futures proc- futures thinking fresh in the Much of the effectiveness organisation does not have to ess, the scenarios are in effect heads of the managers who of strategic futures think- respond to such a significant embedded in the strategy are responsible for strategy ing depends on the willing- change in its business development work. and planning throughout the environment, disseminating 16 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 17 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. “Avoiding the one or two people who are being difficult is very tempting but you must include them. You have to ask yourself, could they stop the process?”. information about changes 2. Ensure that the process noted to us, “Avoiding the one Richard O’Brien, Outsights in the environment identified is inclusive or two people who are being by the signals reinforces difficult is very tempting but within the organisation the Different methodologies will you must include them. You value of the strategic futures require different levels of have to ask yourself, could process and also keeps the participation, but all strategic they stop the process?” awareness of change at the futures thinking is based on forefront of the organisation’s assumptions about how the 3. Ensure that people un- consciousness. Assigning present is changing. Methods derstand and trust the responsibility for this which ensure that tacit knowl- processes being used monitoring task within edge from within the organisa- the organisation at a senior tion feeds in to the construc- Transparent processes where level is a necessary step if tion of assumptions about methodologies and objec- this is to work. the future ensure that the tives are explained fully to the futures process has a higher participants are more likely 4.5. Methodological chance of acceptance within to be successful than ‘black the organisation. Erik Overland box’ methodologies where the Guidelines of Norway 2030 cited the assumptions are concealed. participation of 15 out of 16 This can be a slow process: The following methodological government ministers within it may need repeating every guidelines should hold for any the process as instrumental time the organisation engages where work is continuous organisation embarking on in its success. It is essential to with the work. The process 4. Understand the limita- 5. Understand that the rather than project based, this strategic futures work: capture divergent and minority also benefits if participants tions as well as the process will take time gap, and therefore the anxi- opinions, and to include people can see the way in which their opportunities afforded to deliver benefits to ety associated with it, will be 1. Ensure there is clarity who may be sceptical about contributions to it are feeding by strategic futures the organisation lessened. In the Netherlands, about the resource the value of strategic futures back into the development of thinking (there is no NEPP explicitly sought to close requirements of the thinking. As Richard O’Brien the work. magic bullet) The former Chairman of the In- this gap by concentrating work dependent Television Commis- on the ‘low hanging fruit’ of Strategic futures thinking sion, Sir George Russell, used Some futures methods are some shorter term achievable Figure 4: The anxiety gap helps organisations widen the to say that “everything looked extraordinarily resource inten- targets. This created a virtuous terms on which they under- like a failure in the middle”. This sive. They may require global circle in which short-term suc- stand the world, by testing is especially true of any new research and lengthy interview cesses motivated protagonists their assumptions about the techniques and methods em- techniques. Indeed, this is one to continue the process. present and the future, and ployed by an organisation: it of the recurring expectations by drawing on a broader set takes time to learn what works which organisations have of Expectation of influences than usual. But and what doesn’t work; it takes scenario techniques. If the it will not resolve cultural or time to get things moving. project is a complex one, then institutional issues within an Eddie Obeng of The Pentacle organisations need to be ready Group characterises this as Good project stuff, management development, team but few planning etc. deliverables organisation (although it could for this level of commitment. be used to start the necessary ‘the anxiety gap’; expectations However, other approaches Delivery change process that resolv- are linear but delivery is cur- such as brainstorming or mind ing such issues will require). vilinear. (See Figure 4). As the mapping which are designed The anxiety gap Like all tools, strategic futures process develops, managers to encourage fresh thinking thinking works best when often find the gap between the about smaller, or more spe- applied to the problems it was two difficult to cope with. In a cific issues, may take far less designed to handle. strategic futures environment resources and time. Achieving satisfactory outcomes requires that these expectations are clearly aligned at the start.

The process of translating with this objective. As Paul strategic futures thinking Portney of RFF states, ICL were very keen to take lessons from one from interesting ideas about “There are so many sets the future into change at the of fingerprints on anything scenario exercise and use it to inform the level of development and which becomes policy”. The subsequent exercise. The critical element implementation of policy, first objective, therefore, is incorporated into the second set of scenar- or of products or services, to be accepted as one of the ios was giving names to each of the emerg- is a slow one. As a result the contributors to the process. audiences for futures thinking Credibility is essential, and this ing scenarios – the importance of which are always likely to be behind tends to something which is they had not appreciated when carrying the thinking of the strategic earned rather than given. out the first set. Although there was a great futures group, whether internal One hazard for public deal of debate about what the names should or external. Connection and organisations of actively engagement are essential. This engaging audiences outside be, it was a vital step forward and meant requires, often, simplification of the organisation is that discussions could be a lot more vivid, sce- of concepts and the use of the media generally is poorly narios came to life far more effectively and a range of communications educated as to the way in those participating could better grasp the styles and methods tailored to which scenarios work as a different audiences. method of thinking about concepts involved. It should not be assumed that the future. Journalists jump strategic futures thinking will to the conclusion that the find an audience just because scenarios are projections or that described riots in the One way to minimise the it is good thinking. One of our policy options, instead of ideas city of Copenhagen. This was effect of this is to make best practice conclusions is or stories to help think about picked up and described by sure that the protagonists that there is an interim stage, future issues. This is a concern journalists as the EU’s vision of in the scenario stories are in which as with all public raised by Richard O’Brien, who a future Europe. fictionalised versions of the or political processes, the referred to scenarios work by real organisations, rather than proponents of new thinking the European Commission In the UK, Channel 4 News referring to them by their real have to engage with opinion- made a similar mistake names. If the public sector is to formers, stakeholders, and following the 2001 General use the technique more widely, networks both inside and the “There are so Election with the scenarios it may important to educate outside the organisation to win many sets of about the future of food journalists about strategic acceptance for new ideas. fingerprints on and the rural economy. The futures techniques and how programme’s discussion anything which they work. This stage is an essential focused on the ‘extreme becomes policy”. options’ being considered by precursor to gaining broader acceptance for the thinking DEFRA, failing to understand Paul Portney, Resources that the purpose of the generated by the strategic for the Future futures group. Even those scenarios was not to make organisations whose rationale policy, but to create an is to have an effect on public environment in which issues policy identify the difficulties for policy could be discussed.

2. Understand that one-off exercise. Some futures Recommendations for strategic futures work thinking may filter into the 6 is about rehearsal policy area years after it has Implementation of Best Practice rather than knowledge initially been developed. 6.1. The Strategic bottom right, it makes itself fu- practice, for example through The purpose of strategic 5. Ensure senior ture ready, winning acceptance signals tracking and other futures work is not to predict management buy-in Futures Journey and involvement from senior managers and scanning procedures. And then the future but to assist the people at multiple levels within the process, which should be organisation to prepare for the In our earlier work, we It is important that senior the organisation that a more continuous, can start all over future by: proposed a strategic futures management have an strategic approach is required again. journey in which the organisa- understanding of the benefits to the future. producing a shared un- tion moved from a specific and of strategic futures work, 6.2. Action Points for derstanding as to possible that they are visibly seen to uni-dimensional view of the In the top right, a futures futures and the opportuni- support the process, and world, through to a general and group applies itself to the Best Practice ties or threats that they that they are exposed to it - multi-dimensional view of the work, engaging the organisa- represent. thinking about the future can’t world, before returning to a tion as it goes. In the top left, Effective strategic futures work be entirely delegated. specific view once more. This this thinking is then applied creates a broad enough vision enabling the organisation futures journey can also serve to the specific issues faced of the future to enable the to better manage turbulent of a map of what the organisa- organisation to move beyond 6. Ensure the buy-in and by the organisation, to build a environments by improving involvement of other tion needs to do at each stage. different strategic view. This its typical short-run planning the speed and flexibility of key stakeholders process can be slow. And it cycles, and to draw on a far response. In the bottom left-hand corner, can depend on the success wider range of influences and It is also important to create the organisation decides of the methods to make the ideas than normal. It enables 3. Ensure there is clarity buy-in and involvement that it needs a wider view of organisation future-ready in organisations to ‘rehearse about the objectives amongst those who are the world, either to improve Box I. In Box IV, the organisa- the future’. It then re-engages and intended uses of likely to be affected by the its overall perspective or to tion deploys a number of with the culture, practice, and the work work or be charged with achieve a better resolution for techniques to ensure that the purpose of the organisation as taking it forwards. Thus, a particular problem or issue, strategic futures thinking is a whole. It is critical to provide a clear representatives from key and agrees a question. In the applied to the organisation’s strategic remit for any futures departments should be This summary captures the work. Thus it is important to included in the process of actions necessary to deliver allow sufficient time at the be- Figure 5: The strategic futures journey as a map for best practice developing strategic futures effective strategic futures ginning of the process to dis- insight. Ensure that learning Multi-dimensional work. cuss objectives and intended about strategic futures uses of the work. IV. Futures work feeds III. Futures group 1. Start early thinking is distributed through into specific thinking, builds bigger the organisation as quickly as 4. Be patient about the tested with picture A key best practice finding is process – it may take possible, e.g., by incorporating

Specific focused audiences that the benefits of strategic time to deliver benefit it into appropriate training . futures work are maximised if to the organisation programmes. General it is started sufficiently early. The benefits of strategic If the organisation waits until Be aware that the media futures work may take time it feels the pain from turbulent is prone to misrepresent V. Apply to realise. Overall, the work is conditions it is likely to be too strategic futures work in thinking to ll. Making more likely to have a signifi- late to adequately act on the the public sector as being specific the organisation cant impact if it is approached findings. about ‘policy’ options rather organisation I. Agree ‘future-ready’ as a continuous process of than improving the quality of practice and question learning rather than a quick thinking about the future. policy making

22 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 23 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 7. Choose the right people should be used to initiate for the job and give processes, pass on skills, them a licence to be inject fresh insight and test different assumptions. Select individuals who have an aptitude for and interest in 9. Align the methodology with the purpose of the engaging with the future and work and the culture of the will and ability to question the organisation existing assumptions. Locate them close to the heart of the There are several different organisation, geographically approaches to developing and organisationally. Give strategic futures insight. It this group a brief and grant important to avoid a ‘one them a licence to challenge size fits all’ approach. For existing management thinking. example, whilst scenario Accept that the process may planning is widely used “Scenario planning helps to free our minds cause some organisational and can deliver significant discomfort as it tests new and benefits is not always the to expect discontinuities in our environ- different ideas beyond current appropriate approach or the ment. It approximates a strategic fire drill— received wisdom. Encourage only methodology that should we learn to be forward-looking by ‘living in them to build networks which be used. The key requirement the future’, whilst positioning ourselves to link the organisation to a wide is to ensure that there is a fit range of appropriate sources between the approach used, react to change quickly and nimbly”. of new thinking. Also recognise the ultimate objectives of the Singapore Government Scenario Planning Office that the futures group has work and the culture of the to be able to do some work organisation. The methodology which is independent of the must have the confidence of needs of immediate sponsors the participants and the end- or projects – this may need users – or it will need to win special funding arrangements. that confidence early on in the process. 8. Use an appropriate balance of internal and 10. Develop feedback external inputs mechanisms to create a virtuous circle of Do not underestimate the learning value of the knowledge within the organisation. A It is important to ask the participatory process should questions: How has the work be used to draw out internal been useful to us? How could knowledge. At the same time, the process be improved next it is also important to include time? This insight should then a wide range of external views. be incorporated into any future The purpose of this is to work. Ensure that the tracking stimulate new thinking within metrics are communicated the organisation and ensure effectively into the that the process avoids re- organisation. creating the existing strategy. If required, external assistance

Corporate Executive Board, Scenario Planning. 1999, Corporate Strategy Board, Brookings Institution: Bob Litan, Senior Strategist Washington DC and London. Dutch Ministry of Housing, in charge of NEPP (Netherlands Environmental Arie de Geus, The Living Company, 1999, Nicholas Brealey Books, London. Policy Plan): Mr Hofhuis Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and James Dator, Closing The Deal: How Forward Studies Unit: Dr Michael Rogers, Group of Policy Advisors, EC to make organisations act on futures research, to be published - mid July 2001, Foresight Journal Vol 3 No 3, Camford Publishing, Cambridge. Futuribles: Hugues de Jouvenel, Director General Global Business Network/Nakamae International Economic Research, The Hawaii Research Centre for Future Studies: Jim Dator, Director Future of Japan Project, 1998. ICL: Chris Yapp, Fellow for Lifelong Learning

Keith Grint, Fuzzy Management, 1997, Oxford University Press, Oxford. IVO, University of Tilburg: Gerard de Groot Kees van der Heijden, Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation, 1996, John Netherlands Nature Management and Fisheries Ministry: Ger Vos, Strategic Wiley and Son, Chichester. Policy Division The Henley Centre, Benchmarking UK Strategic Futures Work, Performance and Norway 2030: Erik Øverland, Project Manager Innovation Unit 2001. Outsights (formerly Global Business Network, UK): Richard O’Brien, Partner Pekka Himanen, The Hacker Ethic and the Spirit of the Information Age, London, Secker and Warburg, 2001. Resources for the Future: Paul Portney, Director and Jonathan Halperin, Com- munications Director Art Kleiner, The Age of Heretics, 1996, Nicholas Brealey Books, London. Shell: Ged Davis, VP Global Business Environment and Head of Scenario Plan- Gill Ringland, Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, 1998, John Wiley and ning Sons, Chichester Social and Cultural Planning Office of the Netherlands: Paul Schnabel, Director Peter Schwarz, The Art of the Long View, 1998, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester Sociovision: Joop de Vries, Director of Futures

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