Understanding Best Practice in Strategic Futures Work
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Future Perspectives Understanding Best Practice in Strategic Futures work A Futures Perspective Reprint Andrew Curry UK Head of Futures, Contents 0 The Futures Company Preface November, 2011 Ten years ago The Futures report earlier extensive annexes have 1. Introduction and Methodology Henley Centre - now this year, we realised been weeded, and in a 2. The Objectives and Uses of Strategic Futures Work The Futures Company - that the lessons it few places some ugly syntax and wayward 2.1. The Limits of the Future spent much of the year captures still hold investigating the value of good, partly because it grammar has been 2.2. Managing Through Turbulence strategic futures work, focuses on processes corrected. 2.3. Timing and Clarity first benchmarking and organisational One of the most 2.4. Using Scenarios to Rehearse the Future futures practice, in both systems, rather than the public and private on techniques, which influential quotes about 2.5. Releasing the Future sector, then identifying tend to be more prone futures work, and one which we come back to 3. The Culture of the Strategic Futures Group what represented best to fashion. We also often, is from the French 3.1. Separate But Connected practice. realised that although it was written for pioneer Gaston Berger: 3.2. Independence and Credibility Our client was Geoff government, much of ‘The purpose of looking at the future is to disturb 3.3. The ‘Shelf-Life’ of Futures Thinking Mulgan, then running the learning applied just the Performance and the present’. Another 4. Strategic Futures Methods and the Organisational Context as well to private sector Innovation Unit in the businesses. pioneer, Pierre Wack, 4.1. Matching the Approach to the Audience British Government’s called futures ‘the gentle art of re-perceiving’. 4.2. Ensuring Ownership Throughout the Organisation Cabinet Office, In re-publishing this and charged with paper to mark its tenth We hope that in re- 4.3. Bringing It Back to Strategy and Policy improving the ability anniversary, as part of publishing this report, 4.4. Tracking the Future of the government our Futures Perspectives it will help you see why, and how. 4.5. Methodological Guidelines to address complex series, we hope to strategic issues. Mulgan help individuals and 5. Engaging The Audience was concerned that organisations think 6. Recommendations for Implementation of Best Practice the government did about value of strategic To talk to The Futures Company about futures or 6.1. The Strategic Futures Journey not think well about futures work, as well as the longer-term, and the purpose, and pitfalls. scenarios projects please 6.2. Action Points for Best Practice wanted to understand We are able to do this contact Andrew Curry in if strategic futures because successive London (+44 (0)20 7955 methods would British governments 1839, andrew.curry@ help. After leaving have adopted a policy thefuturescompany. government service, he of open publication com) or Lloyd Burdett wrote a well-regarded of research which it in New Youk (+1 212 book, The Art of Public has commissioned. In 896 8118, lloyd.burdett@ Strategy. preparing this report thefuturescompany.com) for publication we have Re-reading our made minimal changes Understanding Best to the original. The Practice in Strategic 2 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. Understanding Best the strategic futures work is organisations identified in the This section has covered the Practice in Strategic aligned at the start with the benchmarking report, and aims and methodology of this audiences for the work, the reviewed with the Performance project on best practice and needs of the organisation and and Innovation Unit, as offer- how it builds on earlier bench- Futures work its culture. Furthermore, the ing a range of types of best marking work carried out by same organisation may choose practice. Interview respond- The Henley Centre. The report to adopt different approaches ents, and their organisations, now turns to an analysis of the and different techniques at are listed in the Annex II. In findings, culminating at Sec- different times to reach differ- addition, there has been tion 6 with Recommendations 1 ent ends. One size does not fit an active review of relevant for Implementation. all. The question to ask is not literature. simply ‘does it work?’, or even The questions addressed by companies seeking to change ‘will it work for us?’, but ‘how The organisations assessed Introduction the best practice part of the their market position. In will it work for us?’. in the benchmarking exercise project process are as follows: reviewing and assessing best Many public and private sector and selected as examples of practice The Henley Centre organisations engage in strate- best practice come from both Is there best practice out also drew on its experience of gic futures work. They attempt Methodology the public and the private sec- there? current strategic futures work to illuminate and understand tor. The rationale for including for UK public sector clients, The method for the best the future and to use this If so, what are its private companies in the work and similar work with commer- practice stage of the project insight to inform strategy and components? (borne out by the findings) was cial companies. The turbulence has been a mixture of 14 face- policy. In 2001 the Perform- that lessons from best practice How transferable are which strategic futures work to-face and phone interviews ance and Innovation Unit (PIU) in the private sector would these components? seeks to ‘master’ can be about with representatives of the of the Cabinet Office issued have meaning for government. any sort of organisational a brief to benchmark UK Specifically, what can the or external change, whether strategic futures work against UK government learn from market conditions or a newly- that of other countries and to best practice elsewhere? elected mandate, thus best identify best practice in the “The objective is not to forecast the future, practice lessons hold for both use of strategic futures work to for no-one can tell what the future will be. In answering these questions, types of organisation. inform policy making. the intention of this report is The objective is to take responsibility as an to map the findings of the best Those who wish to understand organisation for the future.” The Henley Centre, an practice research in such a quickly the learning from the independent consultancy way that government depart- report in terms of applying Hugues de Jouvenel, Futurible with extensive experience of ments and other public sector best practice to strategic strategic futures work, was organisations can, if they wish, futures thinking in their organi- commissioned to carry out construct their own journey sations should turn directly to the assignment. This report through an effective strategic Section 6, Recommendations on best practice in strategic future thinking process. for Implementation of Best futures work is a companion Practice. This provides a short to our previous report on We sought both private and review of the necessary work ‘Benchmarking UK Strategic public sector examples of best and practice at each stage of Futures Work’, delivered after practice. Strategic futures an effective strategic futures the first phase of the project. work to assist organisations process. That report identified a range to adapt and evolve, applies of futures organisations and to government departments While it is impossible to reduce assessed their main areas of assessing the scope of their the best practice research to a activity, and to a limited degree remit and identifying more ef- single finding, the most impor- their effectiveness. fective ways to tackle complex tant issue for organisations is policy issues in much the same to ensure that the objectives, way that it applies to private output, and methodology of 4 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. 5 © 2011 The Futures Company. All rights reserved. The Objectives and Uses of Strategic 2 Futures Work As part of the earlier – concentrate on illumination uncertainty of not knowing. benchmarking exercise, we and influence, whereas others This immediately creates a segmented strategic futures – the ‘movers’ – concentrate source of disappointment, for work, or organisations which more on enacting change. Of it is never possible to know carry out this work, by the 14 organisations selected the future. A key best practice focusing on the objectives. The for best practice interviews, 6 observation, therefore, is organisation can seek to: aim to illuminate and influence that organisations are able to policy making, 2 also formulate make effective use of strategic Illuminate the future and/or policy, while 6 are involved in futures work only when they issues impacting the future; implementing policy. accept that it is impossible to predict future outcomes. Use strategic futures work to influence policy, either 2.1. The Limits of the The best practice interviews directly or indirectly; Future carried out as part of this future per se, the objective of strategic futures work is Formulate policy using research strongly supported to bring a new set of skills Norway 2030 was initiated in 1998 by strategic futures insight; Organisations embark on this point. As the Scenario strategic futures work because Planning Office of the and perspectives into the the Ministry for Labour and Government Implement policy, using they want to know what the Singapore Government organisation. Hugues de Administration. The project was inspired strategic futures work to Jouvenel of the French future will hold. However, observes, “No-one can predict by the work of the European Commission enact policy change. sometimes they confuse the future because there are group Futuribles explains prediction with understanding. too many uncertainties in our it thus: “The objective is – specifically the European Scenarios 2010 Using this framework, some Managers want to reduce operating environment”.