Normative Forecasting

The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 NORMATIVE FORECASTING by Joseph F. Coates with additions from Jerome C. Glenn Introduction I. History of Normative Forecasting II. Methods and Techniques Genius forecasting Science fiction Survey techniques Methods of exhaustion Scenarios III. How to Do It IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method Appendices Bibliography Example of a Global Normative Scenario Example of a Regional Normative Scenario The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 Acknowledgments The authors wish to acknowledge helpful comments and insightful remarks provided by the peer reviewers of the first draft report, particular: Peter Bishop, Professor, Program for the Study of the Future, University of Houston; Pavel Novacek, Professor, Charles University and Palacky University, Czech Republic; and Larry Hills, United States Agency for International Development. Also Joseph Coates wishes to thank his staff at Coates & Jarratt, Inc., Washington, D.C. And finally, special thanks to Elizabeth Florescu, Neda Zawahri, Kawthar Nakayima for project support, Barry Bluestein for research and computer operations, and Sheila Harty and John Young for editing. Thanks to all for your contributions. Normative Forecasting ii The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 INTRODUCTION Forecasters and futurists generally divide the techniques they use into two broad categories: the exploratory and the normative. Exploratory approaches generally deal with questions of what may, might, or could possibly happen on the basis of the forces at play. Normative forecasting almost always reflects the needs of an organization and, therefore, is goal-oriented. The question dealt with basically is "how would we like the future to evolve?" Goal-oriented forecasting tends to take into account an organization's purpose, its mission, and, most importantly, its expected achievements in the future. Normative forecasting addresses the question of "what ought we to do." Normative forecasting is usually associated with large organizations, both public and private, as an important component of decision making and a factor in resource allocation. In private or government high-technology organizations, such as those involved with space programs, submarines, aircraft design, or advanced computer technology, the link between normative and exploratory forecasting is crucial to provide direction for the organization. Therefore, some feedback is usually from one to the other, which effectively amounts to iterative cycles of exploratory and goal-oriented forecasting. I. HISTORY OF NORMATIVE FORECASTING Institutions, organizations, and governments have always had interest in the longer-term future. Normative forecasting is a much narrower aspect of that unstructured look to the future. The key elements that separate normative forecasting from any other kind of speculation or enunciation of goals are its systematic, comprehensive, and public aspects––public, in this case, meaning open to examination and review by people other than the planners and forecasters themselves. Furthermore, the normative forecast consists of two essential parts. First is the statement of a goal or set of goals for a specific time; second is the analysis in detail of how to reach the goal or goals. The statement of the goal itself must be realistic and take into account a general awareness of present and future circumstances, resources, social, scientific, and technological contexts, etc. Crucial to the process is the detailed analysis, which reveals the specific steps or stages that must be met and how they will be met at specific times in moving toward the goal. From a different point of view, the function of a normative forecast is to allow an organization to orchestrate its resources in a highly targeted way in order to achieve a goal. Ideally, normative forecasting, as with any other kind of forecast, should leave the user and other professionals with the sense that they understand the process and that, if they had gone through the process, they would come to similar results. From a different perspective, one can see normative forecasting as a celebration of human competence and efficacy. If our ability to shape or influence the future somehow were not implicit in the concept of normative forecasting, the concept would be self-contradictory. Normative Forecasting 1 The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 Not every statement of a goal is a normative forecast. The majority of them are not. Chairman Mao's goal in the great leap forward was no more a normative forecast than Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal. Why? Because no detailed analysis backed up what was necessary to achieve those objectives. The characteristic weakness of political goals-setting is the absence of supporting analysis on feasibility or necessity for achieving the goal. Normative forecasting is not emotive political arm-waving, but a detailed process of elaborate technique usable primarily in organizational or governmental planning. Normative forecasting is surely not the tool for the timid, the unimaginative, the fearful, or the fatalistic. The mere forecasting of a future state, such as in science fiction, or the description of a range of alternative futures, such as in the familiar alternative scenarios of Herman Kahn, are not examples of normative forecasting. The alternative scenarios of Kahn are usually examples of exploratory forecasting. The alternatives represent the various ways in which the forces at play could work out. The central features of normative forecasting are two. First, within the framework of understanding the present world, what is the goal or goals that one sets. Second, where does the bulk of the work occur, what are the steps and stages necessary to get us from here to there, or from now to then, on an explicit schedule. With that view in mind, contemporary normative forecasting had its origins in World War II, with the needs of the military for goal-oriented and mission-oriented planning. During the war and subsequently, normative forecasting was picked up by the space program. Again, the central feature was large, expensive, and long-term technological systems, which had to be examined exhaustively from every point of view. The formation of the RAND Corporation at the end of World War II is a forecasting landmark. RAND was set up to preserve the capabilities that were successfully used in World War II for orchestrating scientific, technological, and engineering talent. The parallel development of the Stanford Research Institute, now known as SRI International, to address the commercial sector and the civil sector of government's interests occurred at the same time. Of the scores, if not hundreds, of studies done under the auspices of government contractors or government, one must add the larger universe of studies, such as the White House Goals Research Staff. Again, normative forecasting applies, to some extent, to looks at the future of the United States. Erich Jantsch, a consultant to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in 1967 produced a landmark study, Technological Forecasting and Perspective, which includes historic and methodological treatment of normative forecasting. More recently, the Millennium Project used an international Delphi panel to identify global norms around which to write a global normative scenario. It integrated policies and positive events identified and rated by previous global panels and then wove these together into a global scenario for 2050 with three themes of technology, human development, and political and economic policy. See: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/normscen.html. A second approach to create a normative scenario for the Middle East began by identifying seven necessary pre-conditions for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and then listing and rating options or actions to help achieve each pre-condition. The results will be used to create initial draft scenarios, Normative Forecasting 2 The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 which will then be used as a basis for interviews with opinion leaders to make the normative scenarios more plausible. See: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/ME-Peace-Scenarios.html. II. METHODS AND TECHNIQUES The methods and techniques of normative and exploratory forecasting overlap. Exploratory forecasts, however, tend to rely much more strongly on mathematical analysis and formal, quantitative trend forecasting, as well as extensive use of probabilistic methods. Normative forecasting tends to rely more heavily on qualitative tools, since it involves more open-ended, uncertain, and creative elements of the futures enterprise. Many techniques—such as scenarios, Delphi, various forms of expert group meetings or interviews—tend to be used in both normative and exploratory formats. More genius forecasting and greater use of science fiction also appears in normative forecasting than in exploratory forecasting. An exploratory forecast generally moves forward into the future in terms of forces at play. Exploratory forecasting reflects a continuity model of the future, i.e., a clear linkage between the forces at play and their effects on the components of the system under study. Hence, the objective in the exploratory forecast is to examine the various ways in which those forces and components may play out. Exploratory forecasting rarely suggests a single outcome but, much in tune with contemporary

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