Eco Town Joint Working Group
Notice of Meeting
Friday 13 February 2009
10.00 am
Council Chamber Elizabeth House Church Street Stratford-upon-Avon
Members of the Committee are requested to attend
Chairman C Gillams
Vice-Chairman I Seccombe
Councillors:
P Barnes P Haycock T Bean M Heatley S Beese S Jepson M Brain J Pearce J Dowty Saint S Geraghty L Stowe J Girling C Topple
Paul Lankester Chief Executive
Elizabeth House, Church Street Stratford-upon-Avon CV37 6HX
For further information about this agenda Telephone 01789 267575 Contact: Caroline Nash Facsimile 01789 260007 Minicom 01789 260747 Telephone: 01789 260228 DX700737 STRATFORD-ON-AVON 2 e-mail: caroline.nash@stratford- dc.gov.uk website www.stratford.gov.uk
ECO TOWN JOINT WORKING GROUP
13 February 2009
AGENDA
1. Apologies for Absence
2. Disclosure of Interests
3. Minutes of Last Meeting (Pages 1 - 6) To confirm and sign the minutes of the meeting held on 15 December 2008.
4. Eco-towns Second Stage Consultation - Update report (Pages 7 - 52) To receive an update report.
5. Any other business
6. Date of next meeting
Chief Executive
Eco-town Joint Working Group Meeting Item 3 Notes of meeting held on 15 December 2008, at Pershore commencing at 5.00pm
Attendees: Members C Gillams (Chairman) - Gloucestershire CC Mrs J Pearce - Wychavon DC P Haycock - Wychavon DC M Brain - Stratford DC C Saint - Warwickshire CC Mrs I Seccombe (Vice-Chairman) - Warwickshire CC
Officers Gill Collin - Wychavon DC Colin Staves - Stratford DC Andy Cowan - Warwickshire CC Roger Newham - Warwickshire CC Paul Maitland - Worcestershire CC Terry Smith - Gloucestershire CC Phil Astle - Warwickshire CC
Lucia Moya-Langston - Wychavon DC (Minutes)
Actions 1. Apologies for Absence Cllr Tom Bean - Worcestershire CC Cllr P Barnes - Stratford DC
2. Disclosure of Interests Councillor Brain and Councillor Mrs I Seccombe are members of BARD. Councillor Brain is a Governor of Quinton Primary and Stratford High schools. Councillor Saint is a Governor of Shipston School.
3. Minutes of Working Group 20 November No feedback has been received to date from DCLG about the financial clawback being used to support the provision of infrastructure in the local area, following questioning from Paul Lankester.
Members would like a formal letter sent to DCLG requesting Colin to write clarification of use of the clawback. to CLG re clawback
Colin intends to carry out some detailed research on behalf of the Colin to write group on CICs and and will then write to the promoters. to the promoters re Colin has been advised by CLG that there is no significance to CICs the order in which the schemes are listed in the News Release.
Minutes were approved by the Group.
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Page 1 4. Second Stage Consultation on the Eco-towns Programme Draft response was circulated with the agenda. Colin explained that this document is work in progress. 19 February is the deadline depending on the outcome of BARD’s Judicial Review scheduled for the 22 & 23 January 2009. CLG have confirmed that the extension to the consultation deadline will apply to all parties and not just BARD. CLG have subsequently extended the deadline for the whole consultation to 6 March 2009.
Colin expressed his gratitude for the input from all the authorities. The draft response has been put together by responding to the specific consultation questions asked by CLG.
The key points are: 1. That Eco-towns need to be considered through the RSS and LDF processes and considered properly as a spatial option. 2. Locational principles in the PPS need to be made much clearer and focus on the existing urban areas. Only when these requirements are met would the eco-town standards set in the PPS be relevant. 3. Sustainability Appraisal. There are questions over its robustness. The findings of the SA demonstrate the weakness of the site especially the remoteness of thelocation and transport connections. It was noted that the existence of Worcestershire has been largely ignored by the SA.
Roger commented on the Transport Assessment. Within the constraints of a strategic assessment it is not a bad piece of work, However infrastructure needs are not well assessed and there is no capital needs assessment.He advised that any assessment carried out at this level has high likelihood of being flawed as it’s an unknown quantity.
The Chairman asked if the Transport Assessment meets all the principles and criteria for a new town? Roger advised that in transport terms the sites location is inherently poor. In principle an Eco-town should not generate lots of traffic. Break points will be advocated through the planning system to ensure standards are met.Colin advised that the draft response to the PPS covers performance phasing which allows progress only if standards are met.
The Members questioned how phasing would be managed, enforced and resourced. Gill advised that a development on this scale would require a full time Planning Officer from both Stratford DC and Wychavon DC. Breaches of conditions and section 106 would be prosecuted through the Courts.
Colin advised of the on-going technical work in progress which will be fed into the draft consultation response.
1. Colliers are providing a critique of the promoter’s retail
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Page 2 assessment and are due to feedback shortly. 2. CB Richard Ellis has been appointed to look at Section 106 package, viability and financial assessment.
Members raised concern on financial modelling especially considering current financial climate.
Cllr Saint would like to see the group to stiffen their resolve against the Eco-town and Middle Quinton.
The draft response is to help with national policy and is not just a response to Middle Quinton proposal. The draft response does not dismiss the principle of eco-towns but seeks amendments. A key point to be made on the PPS is that the Eco-towns are an option for the Local Planning Authorities to consider in their LDFs.
Colin advised that it will be possible for Members to bolster views when the draft response is presented at the relevant cabinets.
Gill suggested including a covering joint letter explaining that the response does not undermine our previous views.
It was agreed that a new version would be circulated to Members including the following: 1. Strengthened comments on the sustainability appraisal, particularly transport 2. Include references to Mickleton and Gloucestershire. 3. Inclusion of Wychavon. 4. Strengthen conclusion to smphasise continued opposition to the Middle Quinton proposal
It was agreed that the revised report should go forward to relevant cabinets to be approved. Delegated powers could be given to relevant officers and Members to pass any subsequent changes . If there are any issues raised that can not be agreed upon the authorities can submit individual responses.
5. Update from the Joint Officer Group Meeting held on 8 December 2008 Education : There was a good discussion with Phil Astle who confirmed the proposed provision of education.
The Members raised concerns about phasing and the lack of primary school provision on site. They raised concerns again about the impact on Shipston and Stratford High School and the problems with schools expanding and contracting to accommodate Eco-town. Councillors Brain and Saint advised that the extension of Stratford High School is for the current growth of Stratford.
Councillor Pearce asked that it is fed back that it is emphatic that schooling is kept on an Eco-Town site and that it is not good enough to have secondary school provided after 7 years of completion of the site and that primary school provision will not Colin to action
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Page 3 be provided until the 500 th house is completed. Transport costs to other schools will have to be considered and travelling off site goes against the principle of an Eco-town.
Phil Astle advised the group that Federation schooling (one Head, one Governing body for all levels) is proving to work well in some parts of the country.
Andy Cowan advised that the developers have taken a traditional approach to education rather than an innovative one due to costs.
Eco-town Roadshows 23 & 24 November: Members noted that roadshows had been held at Evesham and Stratford and felt that these raised questions about the Minister’s impartiality. Gill confirmed that roadshows have been held at the other sites shortlisted.
Economic Impact Study: This has been commissioned by AWM and is due to published by Christmas. This may be used for additional input into final draft consultation to the PPS.There is a concern that it is too Stratford and Warwickshire focused and needs to take into consideration the wider area including Worcestershire. This is being addressed by AWM and the consultants.
Councillor Gillams requested that an electronic copy of the transport assessment be circulated to the group
6. Any Other Business Colin circulated a letter received from CLG (dated 3 December) on the Eco-town financial and other assessments. The letter sets out the processes which need completing and the intention to grade the schemes accordaing to their viability.
Gill and Colin to attend the presentation on 9 January regarding the assessment process at CLG in London.. A further opportunity will be given to input into the section 106 head of terms and CB Richard Ellis will be able to advise on this..
Members expressed concern that revenue impact has been Colin to action. omitted under point 4 “financial assessment” and requested that this be another point raised in the response.
Members expressed concern about the range of scenarios that Colin/Gill to may be considered under point 8 of the letter., particulry given the raise at the current economic climate. CLG presentation It was agreed that a letter should be sent to CLG in respect of the following: • Seeking confirmation that revenue impacts would be assessed • Seeking clarification of when and in what form the assessment would be published.
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Page 4 • Seeking assurances regarding the use of any financial clawback. An Eco-town breakfast briefing planned prior to Christmas has been postponed and is now taking place on 29 January 2009.
It was noted that substantial parts of the Middle Quinton site flooded at the weekend.
7. Date of Next Meeting • Friday 13 February at 10.00am, at Stratford DC
Meeting ended at 7.15pm
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Page 6 Item 4
ECO-TOWN JOINT WORKING GROUP 13 FEBRUARY 2009
Subject: Eco-towns Second Stage Consultation – Update Report Lead Officer: Colin Staves Contact on 01789 260333
Summary This report presents an update regarding the Government’s second stage consultation in respect of its Eco-towns programme, and the local authorities’ response to the consultation. The report sets out the latest information from Communities and Local Government (CLG), the progress on the preparation of the joint response and provides an update on the ongoing assessment work which the local authorities and partners have commissioned.
1 Background/Information
1.1 The Government launched the second stage consultation in respect of its Eco-towns programme, with the long-awaited publication of the draft Planning Policy Statement on Eco Towns and supporting documents on 4 November. The deadline for comments on the draft PPS was initially 19 February 2009, but this was subsequently extended to 6 March 2009. 1.2 This report presents an update regarding the Government’s second stage consultation in respect of its Eco-towns programme, and the local authorities’ response to the consultation. The report sets out the latest information from Communities and Local Government (CLG), the progress on the preparation of the joint response and provides an update on the ongoing assessment work which the local authorities and partners have commissioned.
2 The CLG Assessment Process 2.1 Members will be aware that CLG extended the consultation period until 6 March 2009, having regard to the legal challenge from the BARD campaign. The judicial review launched by BARD and supported by other opposition groups was not successful, and as such it is anticipated that CLG will complete the second stage consultation process as planned. Although not confirmed by CLG at this stage there is likely to be a further extension to the deadline, possibly to the end of March. 2.2 The programme for completing the strategic assessments on potential eco-town schemes was set out in a letter dated 3 December from CLG which was considered at the last meeting of the Working Group. A key element of this work is the financial and deliverability assessment which is being led by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on behalf of CLG.
Page 7 2.3 Gill Collin and Colin Staves attended a presentation of the assessment process by PwC at CLG’s offices in London on 9 January. One of the concerns expressed by the Working Group at the last meeting was the need for the financial assessment to consider the ongoing revenue implications of the Eco-town proposals, particularly those which may fall to local authorities. PwC and CLG confirmed during the presentation, and subsequently in writing, that the assessment will take account of the proposals revenue implications. 2.4 It is apparent that PwC’s assessment will be a key consideration in any the Ministerial decision on preferred locations for Eco-towns. The assessment will score the technical elements of the promoters proposals as follows: • Green score – if the proposal submitted adequately addresses the technical issues and requirements associated with the proposed scheme on the site and sets out a potentially viable approach to its delivery. • Red score – if there are significant concerns about the technical deliverability or the proposal did not adequately address technical requirements and where the budgeted costs allowed by the promoter to deliver a technical solution was assessed to be significantly lower than estimated. • Amber score – in circumstances where there was no clear case for a Red or Green score. 2.5 The assessment will also assess the proposals against the standards set out in the draft PPS and any adverse issues raised in the Sustainability Appraisal (SA). The following scoring system will be adopted: • Blue score – proposals potentially exceed what is required to meet the PPS standards and mitigate the impacts identified in the SA with no serious practical or cost obstacles or omissions. • Green score - proposals likely to meet the PPS standards and mitigate the impacts identified in the SA with no serious practical or cost obstacles or omissions. • Amber score - proposals show potential to meet the PPS standards and mitigate the impacts identified in the SA, but further work is required to demonstrate how they will address identified obstacles. • Red score – there are fundamental obstacles to meeting the PPS standards and mitigating the impacts identified in the SA. 2.6 CLG intend to publish an interim analysis of PwC’s financial assessment of the shortlisted schemes. It is anticipated that this will be published during the first week of February, but it was not available at the time of writing this report. CLGs intention is that the interim analysis will provide additional information and help inform the local authority responses to the current consultation on eco-towns. 2.7 The timing of the final Ministerial decision on the preferred locations for Eco-towns is uncertain, but clarification has been sought from CLG.
Page 8 3 The Local Authorities’ Response 3.1 The co-ordinated response which was considered at the last Working Group meeting is now being taken forward by the individual authorities through their Committee cycles. The latest position is as follows: • Cotswold District Council – intend to support the position adopted by the other local authorities. • Stratford-on-Avon District Council – The draft response was agreed in principle by Cabinet on 12 January. Delegated authority has been given to Leader and the Chief Executive to make further technical amendments to the response prior to its formal submission to CLG. • Wychavon District Council – The response will be considered by the Development Control (Policy) Committee on 26 February. • Gloucestershire County Council – The portfolioholder, Councillor Girling, has delegated authority to agree the response prior to the deadline. • Warwickshire County Council – The response will be considered by Cabinet on 26 February. • Worcestershire County Council – The response is being considered by Cabinet on 9 February and the Portfolioholder will have delegated authority to make changes of a technical nature to the response. 3.2 Prior to submission, the co-ordinated response will be updated and amended in the light of the ongoing technical work which has been commissioned by the local authorities and their partners. 4 Ongoing Assessment Work 4.1 This section of the report presents an update in respect of the following technical assessment work which has been commissioned by the local authorities and partners: • Economic Impact Assessment • Review of the Initial Retail Capacity Assessment • Review of the Strategic Transport Assessment • Independent Viability Assessment Economic Impact Assessment 3.4 Advantage West Midlands have now published the Economic Evaluation of the Middle Quinton Eco-town Proposal which has been undertaken by Entec. A copy of the Executive Summary is attached as Appendix 1 to this report, and a copy of the full report will be circulated electronically. 3.5 The evaluation concludes that the proposed development could support the delivery of the West Midlands Economic Strategy (WMES), but notes that the policy aspirations of the WMES could be delivered by a similar development almost anywhere in the region. The key point to be made is that the benefits of the proposals could be more effectively achieved elsewhere in a location which is more closely tied to the delivery mechanisms of the WMES e.g. regeneration zones, which would also minimise the disbenefits associated with development in a remote location such as Long Marston.
Page 9 Review of the Retail Impact Assessment 3.6 Colliers have completed their review of the promoters initial Retail Impact Assessment and a copy of their final report is attached as Appendix 2. The headline conclusions are as follows: • The promoters assessment has over-estimated demand (available expenditure) and under-estimated supply (net floorspace and projected turnover). • As such the promoters have not presented a robust justification for the amount of convenience goods shopping proposed at Middle Quinton. • The proposed floorspace will have a retail impact which is likely to divert trade away from existing centres such as Stratford-upon-Avon, Shipston-on-Stour, Moreton-in-Marsh, Chipping Campden, Evesham, Bidford-on-Avon and Alcester. • A more comprehensive need, capacity and impact study should be carried out in respect of the retail elements of the Middle Quniton proposal. Review of the Strategic Transport Assessment 3.7 Arups have now completed their review of the promoter’s Strategic Transport Assessment (STA). This is attached as Appendix 3. Because of Middle Quinton’s remote location the provision of transport infrastructure and measures to restrict the need to travel are critical to the assessment of the proposed Eco-town. Arups review concludes that there are a number of areas within the STA, particularly the mitigation strategy and its deliverability, which are not fully addressed. 3.8 The review highlights serious concerns regarding the deliverability of the mitigation measures proposed by the promoters, particularly the guided busway. Without substantial additional information there can only be limited confidence regarding the validity of the promoter’s movement strategy. If the proposed mitigation package is not deliverable then many of the STAs assumptions regarding traffic impact on the highway network will not be valid. 3.9 At section 7 the review identifies a number of aspects of the STA which require further work before its conclusions can be given significant weight. Independent Viability Assessment 3.10 An initial draft of the Viability Assessment has been received from our consulltants CB Richard Ellis. As it is in draft form it remains confidential at this stage, but a verbal update will be given at the meeting. 3.11 The co-ordinated response to the draft PPS and SA is being amended and updated to reflect the conclusions of the assessment work, and the documents will be submitted to CLG as appendices to the response document.
Colin Staves ECO-TOWN PROJECT CO-ORDINATOR
Page 10 Item 4 Appendix 1 Advantage West Midlands
Economic Evaluation of the Middle Quinton Eco-town Proposal
Final Report
December 2008
Entec UK Limited
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Executive Summary
Purpose of this report This report has been produced for the purpose of providing an assessment of the likely economic performance of the proposed Eco-town at Middle Quinton as background to preparation of a response to the draft Eco-towns Planning Policy Statement. The remit of the study was to undertake: 1. An assessment of the economic impact of the Eco-town proposals on the local and sub- regional economy. 2. A critical analysis of the promoter’s Economic Assessment and Employment Needs Analysis, including verification of data and testing of assumptions and conclusions . 3. A review of other studies undertaken by the promoters relating to the Eco-town that may impact on the above (subject to timing of when these studies are completed). 4. A critical analysis of the economic element of the Sustainability Appraisal undertaken by Scott Wilson. 5. An assessment of alignment with the WMES and potential impacts on Agency delivery vehicles, priorities and projects. 6. Building on the Agency’s original assessment and a review of recent policy updates, provide a commentary on the Middle Quinton Eco-town and its potential contribution to closing the region’s £10bn output gap and on how it matches up to the national economic/employment criteria required for Eco-towns.
The evaluation method The following approach has been adopted in the evaluation: i. A review of the original bid evaluation and policy background ii. A review of additional promoter submissions relating to economic assessment iii. The development of an evaluation model (see below) and analysis of outputs iv. An interim report on scheme performance based on a working session, including AWM and local authority partners v. A review of conclusions from the Sustainability Appraisal (Scott Wilson) vi. Final reporting At the heart of this evaluation is a quantitative assessment of the impact of the proposed development on the sub-regional and local economy. An Excel spreadsheet-based model was developed to provide a benchmark against which the results of the Economic Strategy for Middle Quinton were evaluated. These outputs were used to inform a working session in order to help evaluate the likely local, sub-regional and regional impact of the proposals.
Policy fit
West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy There is significant in-principle conflict with the Regional Spatial Strategy (January 2008) across a range of policy measures, including: enhancement of the role of City, Town and District Centres (UR3), accessibility to social infrastructure (UR4); focus of housing beyond the
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Page 12 Final Report ii major urban areas (CF2); and the identification of Stratford-on-Avon as the focus for major retail, leisure and office developments. Eco-towns are not mentioned in the document and have only a passing reference in the recent Housing Options Report (NLP, October 2008).
West Midlands Economic Strategy A review of the likely contribution of the Eco-town to the WMES reveals a positive contribution across the majority of priorities and related outcomes sought at a strategic/region- wide level . These include: the development of market sectors with wealth and employment potential, capitalising on sustainability and low-carbon opportunities, investing in business processes and enterprise, and investing in high-value skills for the future economy. Potential contradictions with the WMES centre on: • the compromising of regeneration elsewhere in the region through the diversion of business activity to this already relatively prosperous area; • reliance on the public sector to help stimulate and deliver business development including the use of public funds to deliver infrastructure at this relatively remote location which might be better spent elsewhere; • a lack of detail on precisely how the proposed mix of development will be secured, particularly in respect of the balance between the recycling/energy centre and the high-tech corridor-related businesses; and • the site is being marketed now, with apparently limited interest, so what would materially change in light of this development? The difficulties associated with attempting to attract investment into the HTCs using public intervention illustrate the scale of the challenge. Whilst on face value the development could support the delivery of the WMES, it has to be noted that the policy aspirations of the WMES could be delivered by a similar development almost anywhere in the region. The central question which follows is: could the apparent benefits be better delivered elsewhere (i.e. more closely tied into WMES delivery mechanisms), in turn helping to minimise the disbenefits associated with this relatively remote location? The latter include loss of jobs and a significant mismatch between the available skills, employment opportunities and appropriate housing in the right locations. Taken with other assumptions on the level of home-working, there are significant potential impacts on the local economy if these aspirations are not realised.
The local economic context The following conclusions are evident from a high-level analysis of the performance of the sub- regional and local economies: • Sub-regional patterns of economic activity, as measured by output per head, employment growth and average wage levels, demonstrate the significance of the Stratford-on-Avon – Warwick – Solihull axis, and that by implication, significant additional development could contribute to economic ‘overheating’ of this area at the expense of less favoured areas. • The Warwick & Stratford-upon-Avon Travel to Work Area is a significant one geographically, illustrating both the rural nature of the area and the potential for this to be
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distorted by significant new sources of employment, possibly exacerbating existing patterns of cross-commuting. • Housing exhibits a close association with economic growth and this creates its own dynamic which it is hard for regional policy to easily manipulate. • That there appears to be an ample supply of good quality employment land in Stratford-on- Avon District and the Districts comprising South Worcestershire to meet likely demand, for at least the immediate future. • A significant development in the wrong location could upset the balance between employment land supply and demand, housing supply and demand, and patterns of transport use, diverting efforts from regeneration and planned growth. The latter might of course include a new settlement. • Assumptions relating to the delivery of a significant proportion of home-working and specific mixes of employment opportunities and retail and service provision, if not realised in practice, could have significant consequences for commuting patterns, the balance between housing and job provision and trip generation for retail spending.
The economic case for Middle Quinton
Independent model results The model developed to independently assess the likely economic impact of Middle Quinton on the local and sub-regional economy reveals a notably close fit with the evaluation conducted for the promoters of the scheme. In summary, the impacts across a range of measures suggest a positive contribution, notably in respect of: • Retail and leisure potential – significant expenditure and job creation potential (net expenditure of £98.84m with £20.68m of this estimated to be in Stratford-on-Avon. • Employment – significant, with 4,400 on site, with 1,763 employed elsewhere. • GVA – estimated to be £168m. • Indirect effects – notable additional jobs created, 1,322 in the Stratford-on-Avon area and 2,405 in the wider sub-region. • Employment land – significant contributions to the rolling requirement (18.5%) and total requirement (5.4%) for employment land in Stratford-on-Avon District and the three South Worcestershire Districts (to 2016).
Comparison with the Middle Quinton Economic Strategy Notwithstanding the caveat that the outputs of both the Middle Quinton Economic Strategy and the economic impact assessment carried out for this review need to be treated as indicative rather than definitive, the two approaches have yielded very similar results across a range of measures. Most notable is the high level of self-containment identified (over 70%) and significant contribution to employment creation (around 4,500), around 3,500 in the local area and sub-region and total net GVA in the local area (around £130m) and sub-region (around £150m). The projected level of home-working has been set at 20% for both the Economic Strategy and the economic impact assessment. This may be ambitious (the current rates are
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Page 14 Final Report iv around 9% for the West Midlands and 13% for Stratford-on-Avon District), with any lower proportion resulting in greater numbers seeking work in neighbouring settlements.
Bringing forward the development and some wider implications Development at this site, in terms of its economic rationale, is a realistic prospect. The area is likely to be attractive to employment-generating uses given the likely labour supply, although the precise mix will vary according to available skills in the population. However, there is some concern that the location is strategically ‘nothing special’ and offers little to support the view that the difficulties experienced by attracting investment into HTCs generally would be any less in this location. In all likelihood that the development will by its nature be housing-led prompting reservations around the economic growth prospects in terms of what may be delivered and when. There is thus a potential need for an economic performance indicator to complement and underpin the environmental performance claims of the Eco-town. There are also concerns over whether the level of provision of office space (the floorspace/working age ratio being high compared to Birmingham, Coventry and Stratford) is realistic, notwithstanding the direction of national and regional policy guidance which seeks to concentrate large-scale office development in strategic town and city centres.
Caveats Whilst the gravity model used in this analysis is to a degree location-sensitive by virtue of using the population, employment and retail statistics of the locality, the results offer only a high-level view, demonstrating the net effect and its broad distribution. As such it could be applied to any locality. This prompts the need to interrogate these results in light of the characteristics of the locality, and the need to clarify the precise mix of development, its phasing and viability issues relating to infrastructure provision.
Responding to Draft Planning Policy Statement on Eco- towns The following headings could be used to structure a response, from an economic perspective , to the consultation: Policy Fit ; The Net Economic Impact of the Development ; Impact on Rural Economies and Communities ; Matching Jobs with Housing ; Cross-Commuter Flows ; Realising Inward Investment; and Timely Delivery of Development .
Outstanding issues requiring further research and clarification In light of the above, the following issues require clarification from the promoters of the development: • The extent to which the provision of affordable housing will meet local demands for affordable housing throughout the locality. • The transport infrastructure implications of commuter, shopping and leisure flows associated with the development. • The displacement of current jobs and businesses, both on-site and in the locality. • The potential that jobs and houses will be filled through inter-regional migration, potentially by-passing local needs for affordable housing and job opportunities.
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• The need for a detailed Retail Impact Assessment that can appraise the impacts of the proposed development on the character of the locality, particularly of the immediate rural areas. • The extent to which a new development at this location support a sufficiently wide retail offer to genuinely promote the high degree of self-containment which is aspired to for Eco- towns. • The need for scenario-testing within the Strategic Transport Assessment demonstrating the impacts of different mixes of land uses and phasing. • Whether the employment land and high-tech business generation is in the right place i.e. outside HTCs, and whether there can be meaningful control over the type of incoming businesses. • Compliance with the standard of one employment opportunity/job per house to be reached by public transport, given the uncertainties over the level of home-working which cannot be controlled, and the potential scale of cross-commuting? • There is no guarantee that the provision of employment opportunities will be matched to the mix of housing development and the skills of the residents. A detailed study of likely cross- commuter flows under a number of scenarios is required, testing the assumptions made in respect of matters such as the level of home-working.
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Page 16 Item 4 Appendix 2
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Page 40 Item 4 Appendix 3
Warwickshire County Council
Middle Quinton Eco- town
Review of Strategic Transport Assessment Black
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Warwickshire County Council
Middle Quinton Eco- town
Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
January 2009
This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third Ove Arup & Partners Ltd party 3rd Floor, The Frontage, Queen Street, Nottingham, NG1 2BL
Tel +44 (0)115 9484711 Fax +44 (0)115 9484185 www.arup.com Job number 120851-81
Page 42 Document Verification
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Job title Middle Quinton Eco-town Job number
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Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
Contents
Page 1 Introduction 1 2 Overview 1 3 Trip Generation 2 4 Mode Split 2 5 Distribution and Assignment of Trips 3 6 Mitigation 3 6.1 Public Transport Provision 3 6.2 Travel Planning & Demand Management 5 6.3 Highways 5 6.4 Deliverability 6 7 Summary of STA Aspects Requiring Further Work 7
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Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
1 Introduction Arup have been commissioned by Warwickshire County Council to assist in the various discussions held with the promoters of the Middle Quinton Eco-town and to review the submissions provided to them. This report summarises the outcome of this process, which culminated in submission of a Strategic Transport Assessment Report by the Eco-town promoters to the Department for Communities and Local Government on 30 September 2008. This final document was not reviewed or commented on by Arup prior its submission and therefore this report incorporates observations on the final document. 2 Overview There remain a number of areas of the Strategic Transport Assessment (STA), particularly regarding the mitigation strategy and its deliverability, which are not fully addressed. Without further information on these areas there can be only be limited confidence in the overall validity of the Movement Strategy because, if the proposed mitigation is not deliverable, many of the assumptions made regarding traffic impact on the highway network will not be valid. In the event that further information is provided and the proposed mitigation strategies are proven to be robust then the STA can be considered to provide an appropriate level and standard of assessment in relation to trip generation, distribution, assignment and modal share which is commensurate with the current stage of development of the Eco-town proposals. In particular the STA lacks evidence regarding the package of mitigation proposed for Stratford–upon-Avon and the proposals for provision of a guided busway between the development and neighbouring towns lack clarity. Considerable further technical work and assessment is required before the feasibility and deliverability of these proposals can be assessed with confidence. Of note the proposals, which are central to the mitigation strategy require the use of land not in control of the developer and which are currently in use as a recreational cycleway. A summary of the main areas not sufficiently addressed in the STA is provided at the end of this report. Undertaking the most accurate assessment possible using the level of information available is clearly important. However, in considering the proposals it should be noted that the strategic outcome of the assessment is unlikely to change significantly should the total traffic levels generated by the site vary by -/+ approximately 10%. The objective of an STA is to address issues of principle, identify the broad magnitude and direction of impact and identify the principles of how these impacts can be mitigated. It is recognised and accepted in the STA that further more detailed work will be required before detailed impacts and mitigation proposals can be set out. Should this be compared to the equivalent standard of a full Transport Assessment of sufficient detail to support a conventional Outline or Detailed Planning application a considerably higher level of more detailed work would need to be provided in due course. Notwithstanding this, the STA would be considerably strengthened by the provision of more detailed information at the current stage of assessment. The Travel Plan framework is critical to the ability to successfully delivery the movement strategy and the proposed framework sets out a comprehensive range of measures. However, there is a lack of substantive information regarding monitoring or strategies should the overall targets not be met. The proposals are for a stretching and ambitious upper limit of 40% car borne mode share. Therefore the issue of applying retrospective measures to address target shortfalls is a key issue which would benefit from further information in order to provide for a more robust Travel Plan. The STA demonstrates the highest impact from residual traffic (that which left using the highway network once all demand management techniques have been applied) will be experienced in Stratford-upon-Avon. The level of traffic is significant and two possible mitigation strategies are set out. These strategies appear to have the potential to be J:\120000\120851-81\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\FINAL Page 1 Ove Arup & Partners Ltd ISSUE VERSION\2009-01-30 FINAL ISSUE REVA2.DOC Issue 30 January 2009 Page 45
Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
successful. However, limited information or analysis is provided in the STA in order that an assessment of whether the impacts of residual traffic can be sufficiently mitigated, or whether the mitigation can actually be delivered. This is an area which requires significant further work before a preferred strategy could be adopted. 3 Trip Generation The trip generation set out in the STA is based on the national TRICS database. Whilst this may provide a helpful benchmark and an adequate guide for the purposes of the current document, ultimately it is considered unlikely that it can provide a robust basis for trip estimation as, by definition, the travel behaviour of an Eco-Town should be atypical. The Eco-Towns transport worksheet suggests reference to the DfT Guidance on Transport Assessment, which in turn suggests that ‘unless there is a clear valid comparable situation, the assessment trips should be constructed from first principles based on a detailed analysis of the daily operation of the proposed development’. For the purposes of the STA the use of TRICS to determine an all mode trip rate appears reasonable. A simple 2001 Census based analysis of broadly comparable sized settlements has been undertaken to estimate the degree of trip containment within the Eco- town. This has been combined with an ambitious 20% target for the total proportion of employment which is proposed to be home based working. This provides a total trip containment factor of 25% used in the assessment. Separately to the STA information regarding a series of sensitivity tests on the total trip generation has also been provided. Following a review of this information it is considered that the method used to predict the total quantum of trips which might be generated on the wider transport network from the proposed development is sufficiently robust for the current level of assessment. In order to comply with guidance a first principles approach should be adopted in future to provide the primary basis and a comparator for the further more detailed assessment. The trip generation assessment makes no discount for existing uses, however, existing car trips are discounted from those new trips assigned to the highway network. 4 Mode Split The generic transport remit for an Eco-town can be generalised as needing to successfully meet stretching objectives for sustainable mode choice and, critically, to deliver a step change in ‘normal’ travel patterns. Important to achieving this is a target lead approach to transport outcomes, which has been adopted in the STA. Within the proposed development a high proportion of pedestrian and cycle based trips have been assumed to take place. The degree to which this can be robustly assessed is restricted by the currently limited level of detail available for the site layout. Nevertheless, the site is relatively compact, trip generators and attractors are proposed to be well distributed and there is a firm commitment to the provision of suitability designed infrastructure (low traffic speeds, dedicated user facilities, and priority measures). This, combined with what is proposed to be predominately fee paying off street parking provision at locations of significant trip attraction, suggests that the assumption that the major proportion of internal trips will be pedestrian or cycle based is reasonable. As 25% of all trips are internal to the site this is a significant contributory factor to meeting the overall target of just 40% of daily trips being undertaken by car (the Eco-town criteria suggest no more than 50% as a guide). The modal split of the external trips generated by the Eco-town is strongly influenced by both the proposed parking strategy and public transport provision available. Modal demand has been assessed using a logit generalised cost model which focuses on movement between the Eco-town and Stratford-upon-Avon and Evesham. This disregards journeys which are not to or from the Eco-town. Car driver/passenger trips are taken to be the dominant mode share for external trips to destinations other than Stratford-upon-Avon and Evesham and are broadly in line typical values which might be expected. Journeys to J:\120000\120851-81\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\FINAL Page 2 Ove Arup & Partners Ltd ISSUE VERSION\2009-01-30 FINAL ISSUE REVA2.DOC Issue 30 January 2009 Page 46
Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
Evesham and Stratford-upon-Avon are taken to be 57% bus based, which is a function of the provision of a heavily fare subsidised high frequency guided bus service to each destination and comparatively high parking charges within the Eco-town for non-residential uses. The analysis appears to assume a flat rate charge for parking of £2.50 within the Eco-town as part of an analysis which is bias to Journey to Work travel behaviour. This is reasonable as the basis for providing an initial guide, as one of the primary objectives is to determine impact within the busiest period on the highway network (the AM peak) and to inform the peak capacity requirements for the guided busway. However, it would be expected that travel outside this time for shorter duration activities maybe subject to a different charging regime which is not reflected by the current logit model. A possible effect of this may be to reduce the overall level of annual demand predicted for the bus service. Commentary on the provision of the bus service and parking is provided in further sections of this report and the remainder of this section focuses on assessment of model split for journeys to/from Evesham and Stratford-upon-Avon. The logit model uses a generalised cost equation to compare car and bus alternatives. This is an established and reasonable method of assessment for the purposes of a strategic assessment which, based on the available information, appears to have been employed correctly. Based on the main input parameters set out in the STA it appears the prediction of high bus mode share is fair. However, there are a number of weaknesses which would benefit from being addressed and once taken into account could reduce bus mode share. Sensitivity tests undertaken by the promoters and reported in a letter (Capita Symonds, 15 th August 2008) for journeys to Evesham suggest that car based trips could be 10% higher than predicted. In assessing the need for highway mitigation it was accepted that it would be appropriate to take this into account when considering highway impacts. It is recommended that should the proposals continue to be progressed that this work is undertaken. The principal area of concern is the validation of the logit model against journeys between Alcester and Stratford-upon-Avon, which currently only benefit from a relatively low level of public transport service. Further validation of the model against a more representative sample (for example Stratford-Warwick and journeys to Evesham) would provide greater confidence in the robustness of the model. Other areas of further analysis which should be addressed include sensitivity testing to reflect the ready supply of parking (PNR and public charged) in Stratford-upon-Avon and higher value of time and longer destination walk distances for bus journeys in Stratford- upon-Avon. 5 Distribution and Assignment of Trips Distribution of trips is based on 2001 Census data, which is the only readily available information source to base an assessment on without undertaking specific surveys. This approach is reasonable for the current level of assessment. Car based trips have been assigned to the highway network using a combination of navigational software and local information. Again this is an established technique which is reasonable to use for the current strategic level of assessment. However, should the proposals continue to be promoted then a more detailed assignment model based trip assessment is likely to be necessary. 6 Mitigation
6.1 Public Transport Provision
A key element of the mitigation strategy is provision of a guided bus service between Evesham and Stratford-upon-Avon via Middle Quinton using high quality vehicles. The Stratford-upon-Avon section would be served by an articulated vehicle and the southern section by single unit vehicle. Facilities would be made for a through service between J:\120000\120851-81\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\FINAL Page 3 Ove Arup & Partners Ltd ISSUE VERSION\2009-01-30 FINAL ISSUE REVA2.DOC Issue 30 January 2009 Page 47
Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
Evesham and Stratford-upon-Avon not entering Middle Quinton which may have potential to increase accessibility to the rail network for the existing towns and remove existing car trips from the network. However, provision for such a service has not been factored into the financial deliverability assessment. Service frequency during the 07:00 to 19:00 period would be every 10mins, seven days a week, reducing outside these hours, nominally to 4 buses per hour. Services into Stratford-upon-Avon are proposed to use the former railway line and then run on-road within the urban area. There are a number of issues which may preclude or potentially restrict the delivery of this arrangement or which may have additional consequences which are not addressed in the STA:
• The proposed type of vehicle for the Stratford-upon-Avon leg is a single articulated vehicle, nominally based on the ftr Streetcar. This is incorrectly stated as having a seating capacity of 125. Whilst seating formats and design can vary, published information by the manufacturer suggest a maximum seated capacity of 37, the remainder being standing. Whilst this vehicle has only been suggested as indicative of the type of vehicle which could be employed, vehicles which would have sufficient seated capacity to accommodate the 77 passenger loading predicted (which includes only Middle Quinton traffic and no other patronage which may be generated) are generally double articulated. Such vehicles typically have larger swept paths and turning circles and are more likely to encounter access issues within existing urban areas. The total route distance travelled by the service is 10.5km, taking approximately 16 minutes. In order to meet the high standard of provision which is aspired to it would be desirable for all passengers to be able to sit for this time. Additionally there are restrictions which limit the speed of road based vehicles carrying standing passengers. This issue requires much greater detailed further coverage in order that the deliverability and standard of service which would be provided can be assessed.
• Stratford-upon-Avon has a number of restricted and difficult junctions which an articulated vehicle would need to negotiate. It is suggested in the STA that vehicle tracking plots have been undertaken which confirm the necessary movements could be accommodated. These have not been supplied and so cannot be assessed. There is a risk that in order to accommodate the necessary turns, particularly at signalised junctions, the junction alignment and geometry would need to altered. Should this require stop lines or other geometry to be changed there is a significant risk that junction capacity could be adversely impacted. In this event both existing congestion and proposed bus journey times would be adversely effected. Should double articulated vehicles be required in order to enable sufficient seated capacity this impact could be worsened.
Other public transport provision includes the extension of a number of local bus services into the site and the provision of a demand responsive community bus scheme. The provision of these reflects the need to integrate with the wider rural area and appears appropriate to the level of trips that are predicted to be generated into these areas. No significant modal share changes or revenue generating assumptions appear to have been adopted on the back of these services and they have been included in the financial deliverability assessment, which would appear to be robust. It is proposed to provide interchange improvements, waiting, ticketing and cycle parking improvements at ‘neighbouring’ rail stations. This may help to make onward rail journeys for those who have used the bus services easier and may also provide some wider benefit. However, it is not proposed to deliver rail service enhancements. No account for significant rail mode share has been made in the STA and therefore this position appears robust and reasonable. The STA sets out an aspiration for the future provision of a passenger tram-train or heavy rail service, however, no account for the impact of it provision or dependence on the delivery J:\120000\120851-81\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\FINAL Page 4 Ove Arup & Partners Ltd ISSUE VERSION\2009-01-30 FINAL ISSUE REVA2.DOC Issue 30 January 2009 Page 48
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of it has been included in the assessment. It is stated that the existing southern rail link will be used to serve a logistics operation from the site to bring freight in and out. There is no detail provided about this and B8 warehousing uses or any account for trip generation from such an operation do not appear to be included in the assessment or in the site plans provided. It is therefore assumed that this proposal is being pursued outside of the Eco- town proposal and that, other than serving to enable the import of construction materials, the presence of an existing rail line does not have a significant enabling impact on the proposals.
6.2 Travel Planning & Demand Management
The STA sets out a framework for an ‘Overarching Travel Plan’ which will be supported by lower order Travel Plans for individual elements of the development. This sets out a high standard of target to ensure that no more than 40% of trips generated by the development will be car borne. It is recognised that the detail of a travel plan cannot be set out until more detailed proposals are developed, however, the STA sets out a comprehensive range of standard recognised techniques and measures which might be included. The delivery of measures to support the use of sustainable modes is dealt with elsewhere in this report. A second key element to the Travel Plan highlighted in the STA which is likely to be critical to the delivery of the stretching target for car mode share is the management of car parking, which is discussed further below. The STA sets out that non-residential parking will be predominately charged for and provided in off-street car parking (although it is unclear if parking will be subject to a high flat rate charge throughout the day or have lower or free of charge for short and limited stay events). Revenue from parking charges will support the public transport provision and fund the on-going implementation and management of the Travel Plan. This is a reasonable management strategy which plays a major role in the financial sustainability of the proposals. Approximately 10% of residential dwellings are anticipated to be car free. However, there is no proposal to link fiscal measures to residential parking and instead supply is limited to a maximum of 1 space per dwelling for 90% of the residential units. A community levy of £75 per house is to be made to support the delivery of the Travel Planning on the site. It is possible that availability of zero cost residential parking with charged non-residential parking may lead to some trips which are predicted to be retained internally becoming external car borne trips. On the basis of the information available in the STA this potential effect cannot be assessed and may not occur, however, if proposals are to be developed then further consideration of the issue should provided. There is limited discussion of monitoring or the measurement of performance and what measures might be undertaken should targets not be met. This does not undermine the Travel Planning principles set out in the STA, however, must be addressed in order to provide a robust travel plan should the proposals be developed further.
6.3 Highways
There is no analysis of the impact of HGV movements from the site. There is reference in the STA to proposals for a logistics centre which is linked to rail freight. Typically such a development would also generate significant HGV movements, however, as employment uses included in the assessment are taken as B2 general industrial and B1 Business Park and the logistics centre is not referenced on the Eco-town plan it understood that this proposal is not part of the Eco-town and will be dealt with separately. The site currently generates significant HGV movements and as such as any further proposals for HGV generating uses emerge this will need to assessed and considered carefully. The STA sets out likely traffic increases which might be experienced in the villages surrounding the Eco-town and states that the level of increases would be unlikely to cause operational/capacity issues. It is also recognised in the STA that environmental impacts may be generated which cannot be assessed until a more detailed assessment has been
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Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
completed. It therefore commits to the provision of environmental mitigation or remedial measures should these be identified as necessary. This position appears commensurate with the level of traffic generation identified. Two alternative mitigation strategies are set out for Stratford-upon-Avon; one focusing on the provision of the Western Relief Road from the A46 through to the existing southern section; the second being the provision of Park & Ride and Travel Planning and demand management measures in Stratford-upon-Avon and the use of increased non-residential parking charges in Middle Quinton (along with other Travel Plan initiatives). The effects of the former strategy are completely unexplored, whereas the latter strategy is predicted to reduce the net additional traffic in Stratford-upon-Avon by approximately 50%. Under the latter strategy total additional traffic is 210 vehicles in the worse peak hour using Clopton Bridge and 140 using Seven Meadows Road. The STA suggests that this impact can be accommodated without significant works. There is limited supporting analysis behind the reductions in traffic generation which could potentially be achieved by the second mitigation strategy and it is not clear whether it could be achieved or not. The remaining residual impact on Clopton Bridge may conflict with other strategic initiatives being considered in the town centre and Bridgeway area. Additionally the performance impact on what is a constrained network cannot be assessed without detailed modelling work. No junction analysis has been undertaken and there is no assessment of the impact of these additional vehicles in the future year which they might occur in. The STA recognises that further on going work is required in order to establish the best mitigation package for Stratford-upon-Avon. Whilst it would not be expected that a strategic assessment would be able provide a complete answer to the level of impact in Stratford- upon-Avon or the detail of appropriate mitigation strategy, it is clear that there remains great uncertainty about whether the impacts can be mitigated. When combined with consideration of the uncertainty over potential adverse traffic congestion impacts which could be caused by the introduction of articulated buses to the network (arising from the potential need for junction works) it is impossible to identify the highways impact of the proposals on Stratford-upon-Avon with the current level of information available. Considerable further technical work is required in order to make a robust assessment of the highway impact of the proposals.
6.4 Deliverability
The financial deliverability assessment does not include any assessment of the capital costs of any of the proposed mitigation. Provided that this is accommodated by the development then measures should be deliverable. The long term financial prospects of the public transport and Travel Plan measures have been considered in the STA. Given the high level of unknowns at this stage of the development of the proposals the assessment generally appears robust. However, there are a number of significant omissions regarding the guided busway which also relate to its general procurement:
• There is no commentary on how any required third party land will be required or whether the Greenway is available for use. The northern section of the busway requires the use of land which is not owned by the promoters and is currently occupied by a cycleway. There is likely to be opposition to use of the Greenway for a guided bus and there is no certainty that the land for the guided busway will be available. There is commitment to early delivery of the bus proposals and without consideration of this issue the viability of achieving this cannot be commented on.
• It is unclear who would own the infrastructure and no consideration is given to how the 12km of busway will be maintained or managed. These are potential significant issues which will influence the deliverability of a proposal which is central to delivery of the proposed development and movement strategy.
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Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
• South of Middle Quinton the busway will be required to run alongside heavy rail. There is no evidence supplied that the potential safety implications of this are acceptable. This is a key issue which requires commentary and evidence. Furthermore the busway will be required to operate on a single track with passing places. There is no assessment of the frequency with which these can be provided and whether this is sufficient to enable reliable operation at the speeds assumed in the demand assessment.
Additionally the application of car parking charges in Middle Quinton will significantly influence both the modal demand and financial deliverability. Currently the assessment appears to be based on commuter behaviour and should parking charges vary significantly for shorter periods than all day parking then the financial and demand outcomes would change. Management of parking supply will be critical to delivery of the movement strategy, in particular the control on-street parking levels both in residential and community/retail areas. There is no discussion in the STA or inclusion in the financial appraisal for this management. Further to the commentary above regarding mitigation within Stratford-upon-Avon there is also no deliverability or financial assessment of the proposed mitigation strategies. There are therefore a number of potential key elements such as a completion of the Western Relief Road or provision of a new Southern Park and Ride which are not assessed. The later in particular can be expected to create significant on-going revenue implications which are not included in the assessment. The former, as well as generating on-going maintenance costs, will clearly also be subject to significant capital outlay and delivery barriers. 7 Summary of STA Aspects Requiring Further Work The following provides a simple summary of the key areas of the STA which would benefit from the provision of further information or evidence. This should be provided now or in the future in order that the Highway Authorities can be confident that the predicted outcomes, impacts and conclusions are robust and that the proposed mitigation has a realistic prospect of being deliverable. Development of the STA into a more detailed full Transport Assessment would require further information and work beyond that detailed below.
• Refinement of the public transport demand model based on a more robust set of validation criteria and more detailed assessment of peak and off-peak demand, including sensitivity tests for parking supply and charging.
• Evidence that a suitable articulated bus capable of providing seated transport between Middle Quinton and Stratford-upon-Avon is available and that it can navigate the urban area without significant adverse impact on existing highway capacity.
• Evidence that the two alternative mitigation strategies for Stratford-upon-Avon are capable of delivering the benefits and impacts asserted and can be delivered, specifically: Demonstrating the ability to procure and fund completion of the Stratford Western Relief Road and that doing so would remove sufficient traffic from the town centre to accommodate newly generated traffic from the development.
Demonstrating that the ‘enhanced’ travel planning measures are capable of delivering the suggested traffic reductions and that additional residual traffic impacts are capable of being accommodated and would not preclude existing proposals to reduce traffic in key areas of the town.
• Provision of information, and if necessary factoring into the financial model, details on how the proposed guided bus way will be maintained and operated.
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Warwickshire County Council Middle Quinton Eco-town Review of Strategic Transport Assessment
• Provision of evidence that the potential safety issues of operating the proposed busway alongside an active rail line to the south of Middle Quinton can be acceptably addressed.
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