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An Analysis of Successful and Unsuccessful Terrorist Assassinations: Informing Counterterrorism Through Situational Crime Prevention

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An Analysis of Successful and Unsuccessful Terrorist Assassinations: Informing Counterterrorism Through Situational Crime Prevention City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects 2-2018 An Analysis of Successful and Unsuccessful Terrorist Assassinations: Informing Counterterrorism Through Situational Crime Prevention Marissa Mandala The Graduate Center, City University of New York How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_etds/2487 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] AN ANALYSIS OF SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL TERRORIST ASSASSINATIONS: INFORMING COUNTERTERRORISM THROUGH SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION by MARISSA MANDALA A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Criminal Justice in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, The City University of New York 2018 © 2018 MARISSA MANDALA All Rights Reserved ii AN ANALYSIS OF SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL TERRORIST ASSASSINATIONS: INFORMING COUNTERTERRORISM THROUGH SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION by MARISSA MANDALA This manuscript has been read and accepted for the Graduate Faculty in Criminal Justice in satisfaction of the dissertation requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. __________________________ ____________________________________ Date Joshua D. Freilich Chair of Examining Committee __________________________ ____________________________________ Date Deborah Koetzle Executive Officer Supervisory Committee: Michael G. Maxfield ____________________________________ Mangai Natarajan ____________________________________ THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK iii ABSTRACT An Analysis of Successful and Unsuccessful Terrorist Assassinations: Informing Counterterrorism Through Situational Crime Prevention by Marissa Mandala Advisor: Professor Joshua D. Freilich This study applies environmental criminology and situational crime prevention (SCP) to study successful and unsuccessful assassinations by terrorists. Using these perspectives, a series of hypotheses were devised to understand the situational factors that contribute to successful compared to unsuccessful assassinations. A random sample of roughly 1,000 successful and 1,000 unsuccessful assassination attacks taking place between 2005 and 2014 was acquired from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Open source materials were then consulted to supplement the GTD with the creation of new SCP variables. The hypotheses were tested in a binary logistic regression, and additional regression models were created for 4 specific regions (the Middle East & North Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub Saharan Africa). Results indicate support for the application of SCP and environmental criminology to the study of assassinations by terrorists. Specifically, successful assassinations are associated with guardianship, weapon type, target location, terrorist location, attack intensity, and distance. Findings are largely consistent across the different regions, however, the results from each regional model deviated slightly from the full model, indicating that the impact of certain SCP variables on successful assassinations vary by region. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I express the sincerest gratitude to my committee members for their unwavering confidence in my ideas and abilities throughout every step of this endeavor. To my dissertation chair, Dr. Joshua Freilich, for his invaluable guidance and encouragement, and for believing in this project from day one of its conceptualization. To Dr. Mangai Natarajan for her constructive feedback and for introducing me to the world of environmental criminology and situational crime prevention. To Dr. Michael Maxfield, whose generosity in time and support has been instrumental to my development as a researcher and writer. I am deeply appreciative of Dr. Freda Adler, who saw my potential before I even began my first day of graduate school at Penn. I am immensely thankful for my family, friends, and colleagues for their continued reassurance throughout this seemingly endless and oftentimes stressful journey. Lastly, I have had the privilege of pursuing a doctoral education because of the sacrifices made by my parents. My past, present, and future accomplishments are a direct result of the values and work ethic they have instilled in me. I am eternally grateful for their unconditional love and support. v TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 CH. 1: ASSASSINATION BACKGROUND 4 a. Defining Assassination and Terrorism 4 b. History of Assassination 6 a. Origins of Assassination 6 b. Impact of Assassination: Examples 7 c. Links to Terrorism 11 c. Current Assassination Literature 13 CH. 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 21 a. Environmental Criminology and SCP 21 b. Terrorism and SCP 24 CH. 3: HYPOTHESES 28 a. Capable Guardians 30 b. Weapons 31 c. Targets 34 d. Terrorists 36 e. Attack Intensity 37 f. Distance 38 g. Control Variables 39 CH. 4: DATA 40 a. Data Background 40 b. Dependent Variable, Independent Variables & Control Variables 43 CH. 5: METHODOLOGY 46 a. Research Design 46 b. Univariate & Bivariate Statistics 52 c. Multivariate Analyses 53 CH. 6: RESULTS 56 a. Descriptive Statistics 56 b. Bivariate Statistics 61 c. Multivariate Analyses 66 a. Partial Binary Logistic Regression Models 72 b. Full Binary Logistic Regression Model (All Regions) 78 c. Regional Binary Logistic Regression Models 81 i. Middle East & North Africa 81 ii. South Asia 84 iii. Southeast Asia 89 iv. Sub Saharan Africa 92 d. Results Summary 95 vi CH. 7: DISCUSSION 98 a. Full Model 99 a. Capable Guardianship 99 b. Weapons 101 c. Targets 104 d. Terrorists 107 e. Attack Intensity 109 f. Distance 113 g. Control Variables & Insignificant Variables 114 b. Regional Models 116 a. Middle East & North Africa 117 b. South Asia 120 c. Southeast Asia 122 d. Sub Saharan Africa 123 CH. 8: LIMITATIONS, CONTRIBUTIONS & FUTURE RESEARCH 125 a. Limitations 125 b. Contributions to Literature, Research and Policy 127 CONCLUSION 129 APPENDIX 132 a. Codebook 132 REFERENCES 136 vii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1 25 Techniques of Situational Prevention 24 Table 1 Hypotheses and Data Source 29 Table 2 Hypotheses and Corresponding Variables 45 Table 3 Descriptive Statistics, 2005-2014 57 Table 4 T-test for Successful Assassinations and Collateral Deaths 61 Table 5 Assassination Chi Square Results, 2005-2014: Multiple Terrorists, Target in Motorcade, Close Proximity, Security Present, Official Target 62 Table 6 Assassination Chi Square Results, 2005-2014: Target Location, Terrorist Location 64 Table 7 Assassination Chi Square Results, 2005-2014: Weapon Type, Others Around 65 Table 8 Assassination Chi Square Results, 2005-2014: Day of the Week 65 Table 9 Correlations Matrix 70 Table 10 Correlations Matrix, Continued 71 Table 11 Linear Regression Multicollinearity Diagnostics 71 Table 12 Collinearity Diagnostics 72 Table 13 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, All Regions Partial Model (Independent Variables Only) 73 viii Table 14 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, All Regions Partial Model (Significant Independent Variables + Control Variables) 75 Table 15 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, All Regions, Full Model 78 Table 16 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, Middle East & North Africa 82 Table 17 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, South Asia 85 Table 18 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, Southeast Asia 89 Table 19 Binary Logistic Regression Predicting Success, 2005-2014, Sub Saharan Africa 92 Table 20 Significant Independent Variables 97 ix INTRODUCTION This dissertation analyzes successful and unsuccessful terrorist assassination incidents through the framework of environmental criminology and situational crime prevention (SCP). It devises a series of hypotheses developed from the prior literature to identify characteristics associated with successful (i.e., the target was killed) assassination outcomes. The main analysis uses a random sample of 1,000 successful and 1,000 unsuccessful assassination incidents between 2005 and 2014 from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The hypotheses are tested in a series of binary logistic regression models. Since the GTD provides limited details on assassination events, this dissertation innovatively expands the dataset by utilizing open source material to add new SCP variables that do not currently exist in any terrorism database. This approach allows for an improved and more refined test of the SCP framework compared to if only the GTD variables were relied upon. Importantly, this dissertation tests an additional 12 hypotheses, as opposed to only five hypotheses available from the GTD variables. Studies have successfully employed a similar strategy to examine maritime piracy by reviewing narratives published by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) to code for SCP variables (Shane & Magnuson, 2014; Shane, Piza, & Mandala, 2015). Mandala and Freilich (2017a) utilize this approach in their analysis of 100 successful and 100 unsuccessful assassinations. This dissertation therefore extends the previous work conducted by Mandala and Freilich (2017a)1. 1 This dissertation extends Mandala and Freilich’s study (2017a) in five important ways. First, this dissertation uses an enhanced sample of roughly 2000 incidents, as opposed to 200, to better detect significant effects. Second,
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