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China New Energy Vehicles Sector China Consumer Discretionary 1 December 2016 China New Energy Vehicles Sector NEV supply chain study: charging ahead Electric vehicles (EVs) on track to replace those with conventional engines given lower production, operating and maintenance costs Chinese government efforts to encourage adoption of new energy Kelvin Lau vehicles (NEVs) likely to shift focus from OEMs to end-users (852) 2848 4467 Today’s NEV pacesetters should turn their head starts into long-term [email protected] market leadership; we reiterate our Buy (1) calls on BYD and Nexteer Brian Lam (852) 2532 4341 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 123 China New Energy Vehicles Sector: 1 December 2016 Table of contents Car manufacturers: support to take a new form .................................................... 5 The government’s 2020 target for NEV ownership looks within reach ............................... 5 Subsidies: more fine-tuning to come ................................................................................. 9 ADAS: still too early ............................................................................................... 14 Another step towards fully autonomous cars ....................................................................14 Regulations and legislation to play a key role ..................................................................15 ADAS in China .................................................................................................................17 Charging facilities: a critical step forward ........................................................... 20 Addressing the bottleneck with policy support ..................................................................20 Charging poles to meet varying levels of demand ............................................................24 Non-SOE companies emerging among operators ............................................................26 Equipment manufacturers rushing to the market could see costs go down ......................30 The future: wireless charging technology is approaching .................................................32 Car batteries: the key to success .......................................................................... 34 Lower battery costs would lead to more competitive selling prices ...................................34 Longer driving distances make EVs more usable .............................................................35 Chinese government nurturing battery technology ...........................................................37 Appendix 1: EV battery development ................................................................... 41 Rechargeable battery industry evolution ..........................................................................41 LiB shipments set to surge on EV development ...............................................................48 EV LiB cost reduction will further boost the demand ........................................................50 Major global EV LiB players .............................................................................................50 Appendix 2: battery material study ....................................................................... 53 Understanding the supply chain .......................................................................................53 LiB components: cathodes ...............................................................................................56 LiB components: anodes .................................................................................................58 LiB components: electrolytes ...........................................................................................59 LiB components: separator ..............................................................................................60 Company Section BYD .................................................................................................................................63 Nexteer Automotive Group...............................................................................................81 Minth Group .....................................................................................................................89 Zhengzhou Yutong Bus ...................................................................................................95 FDG Electric Vehicles .................................................................................................... 101 Coslight Technology International .................................................................................. 109 China Titans Energy Technology ................................................................................... 115 2 China Consumer Discretionary 1 December 2016 China New Energy Vehicles Sector NEV supply chain study: charging ahead Electric vehicles (EVs) on track to replace those with conventional engines given lower production, operating and maintenance costs Chinese government efforts to encourage adoption of new energy Kelvin Lau vehicles (NEVs) likely to shift focus from OEMs to end-users (852) 2848 4467 Today’s NEV pacesetters should turn their head starts into long-term [email protected] market leadership; we reiterate our Buy (1) calls on BYD and Nexteer Brian Lam (852) 2532 4341 [email protected] What's new: We have conducted an end-to-end examination of the supply Key stock calls chain for the China New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Sector. Given the speed of New Prev. industry developments, together with effort to reduce pollution and improve BYD (1211 HK) Rating Buy Buy energy efficiency, we consider the segment to be increasingly promising. Target 68.00 65.00 Upside p 45.6% What's the impact: EVs on course to replace vehicles powered by Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK) internal combustion engines (ICE). We see a strong possibility that the cost Rating Buy Buy of production for EVs will be comparable to that for ICE vehicles by 2020, given Target 12.70 12.70 Upside p 30.7% ongoing declines in battery costs. In our view, the lower cost of driving and maintaining EVs relative to ICE vehicles should propel this market shift, along Source: Daiwa forecasts with environmental-protection considerations. We raise our NEV growth Not rated stocks featured in this report forecasts for 2017-20 to 40-50% YoY, from 20-40% YoY. Company Ticker NEV exposure Zhengzhou Yutong 600066 CH Produces NEV buses Policy support to shift to end-customers. NEV development in China has Coslight Technology 1043 HK Produces motive batteries China Titans Energy 2188 HK Produces charging facilities stepped up a gear in recent years, with many domestic OEMs now capable of FDG Electric Vehicles 729 HK Produces NEVs & motive batteries Minth Group 425 HK Produces ADAS components developing such vehicles, backed by local suppliers. Changes are afoot on the policy front too, as we expect the government to try to stimulate demand rather Source: Daiwa than supply in 2017 (reduced subsidies to the OEMs and acceleration in the construction of charging facilities). We expect the non-SOEs to concentrate on producing and operating charging poles, while the SOEs dominate large-scale charging station projects. Local battery makers rule the road. In our view, China’s local governments are unlikely to make international battery products eligible for subsidies in the near term, giving the domestic players time to close the technology gap. ADAS in its early stages in China. We do not doubt the potential of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in the long term, backed by regulatory change. However, we do not expect the turning point to come until 2018, with partial automation (PA) set to grow in popularity. What we recommend: We believe today’s major players will maintain their dominance, as the government will be keen not to have an overcrowded sector. Hence, we reiterate Buy (1) on BYD (1211 HK, HKD46.70), which is setting the pace in NEVs and improving its profitability. Also, we raise our TP for BYD to HKD68 from HKD65. On the components side, we like Nexteer (1316 HK, HKD9.72, Buy [1]), which we expect to benefit in the long term from the rise of autonomous driving, a pre-requisite for which is upgraded steering components. The key risk to these Buy (1) calls: lower-than-expected growth in NEV new-car sales. How we differ: Our report examines not only NEV manufacturing but the supply chain, including charging facilities, batteries and battery materials. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 123 China New Energy Vehicles Sector: 1 December 2016 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg BYD 1211 HK 46.70 Buy Buy 68.00 65.00 4.6% 1.954 1.934 1.0% 2.344 2.314 1.3% Nexteer Automotive Group 1316 HK 9.72 Buy Buy 12.70 12.70 0.0% 0.117 0.117 0.0% 0.132 0.132 0.0% Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Average EV battery pack cost trend (2010-20E) China: NEV sales and forecasts USD/KWh (units) (YoY %) 1,200 2,500,000 343% 400% 324% 1,000 350% 2,000,000 1,000 300% 800 250% 800 700 1,500,000 620 200% 575 600 1,000,000 150% 400 57% 70% 50% 100% 400 500,000 38% 40% 40% 40% 230 50% 150 200 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 0 NEV sales (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
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