Report to Scrutiny

Item Number:

Contains Confidential Or No Exempt Information

Update on the School Expansion Programme and Site Subject of Report: Acquisitions Meeting: Overview and Scrutiny Committee

Adam Whalley Service report author: [email protected] 020 8825 9420 Keith Fraser Scrutiny officer: [email protected] 020 8825 7497

Cabinet Responsibility: Cllr Binda Rai, Children and Young People Director Responsibility: Judith Finlay, Executive Director Children and Adults

The report sets out current and projected demands for Brief: school places and outlines the steps underway to ensure continuity of provision.

i) To comment on the report Recommendations: ii) To consider whether to send an informative to Cabinet on the subject of this report.

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1. Update on the School Expansion Programme and Site Acquisitions

The purpose of this report is to update the Overview and Scrutiny Committee on the progress of the Council’s school expansion programme, current pupil projections (including for pupils with Special Educational Needs), site acquisitions and possible next steps to support the Education Funding Agency in acquiring sites for planned Free Schools. This report has been prepared in parallel with an update to Cabinet which is due to be considered in the Cabinet meeting of 18 October 2016.

Updates are provided separately on primary, secondary and special educational needs provision.

Primary School Places, 4- 11 year olds

Current programme

The significant increase in births between 2002/3 and 2010/11 has meant continued pressure on Ealing primary schools. Expansion of primary school places in Ealing began in 2008, with more than half of all schools now having either expanded or taken at least one bulge class to date.

The current primary expansion programme will have provided 34.5 forms of entry (FE) in permanent expansions by 2017 (with 33 FE of these available as permanent school places in September 2016). Most of these have been provided by expanding existing schools, but 7FE have been provided in four new schools, Holy Family, Ark Priory and Ark Byron in Acton and St Mary’s in . A further new 2FE primary free school, Floreat Southall, which had been granted approval to open in 2016 by the Department for Education has subsequently been deferred.

In total (including 2.5FE in bulge classes) we will provide 4,830 reception places in September 2016, compared to the 2008 baseline of 3,769 places. This is to meet the demand generated by 5,750 live births for the cohort of children who reached reception age in September 2016. The rising birth rate has been the key factor influencing the increase in demand for places in Ealing, with a 31% rise in births over the eight year period between 2002/03 and 2010/11. This increase in births has been driven by migrant communities, with births to mothers born in England actually declining during this period and the proportion of births to mothers born outside of the UK increasing from 57% to 72% of births. The September 2015 intake (born in 2010/11) appears to represent the peak in births and births have now dropped back to a provisional 5,318 in 2014/15 (the September 2019 intake). The latest published calendar year data for 2015 indicates births have come down still further to 5,210.

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Table 1 Births over time with corresponding year of entry to reception

Year Entry into Entry into Number of births reception year 7 Births 01-02 Sep 06 Sep 13 4,386 Births 02-03 Sep 07 Sep 14 4,469 Births 03-04 Sep 08 Sep 15 4,599 Births 04-05 Sep 09 Sep 16 4,841 Births 05-06 Sep 10 Sep 17 4,976 Births 06-07 Sep 11 Sep 18 5,231 Births 07-08 Sep 12 Sep 19 5,573 Births 08-09 Sep 13 Sep 20 5,578 Births 09-10 Sep 14 Sep 21 5,829 Births 10-11 Sep 15 Sep 22 5,843 Births 11-12 Sep 16 Sep 23 5,750 Births 12-13 Sep 17 Sep 24 5,606 Births 13-14 Sep 18 Sep 25 5,442 Births 14-15 Sep 19 Sep 26 5,318 (provisional)

Future Programme The GLA reviewed their birth projections in 2016 and are now estimating that births in Ealing will fall gradually to just below 5,200 over the next ten years.

Our latest projections (which are now based on the current three year average birth to reception ratio of 79.9%) project that we will need to provide sufficient places for 4,587 children entering reception classes across the borough in 2016, dropping to 4,472 in 2017 and then to between 4250 and 4350 from 2018 onwards.

Once the current schemes are fully implemented we will have 4,800 permanent reception places available across the borough. Based on current projections this would represent a borough level surplus of between 4 and 5% this year rising to between 9 and 11% from 2018 onwards. We therefore now expect to have enough places to meet demand and provide a reasonable buffer to cope with in year admissions and fluctuations in retention in the Acton, Ealing and , Northolt, Perivale (GNP) areas of the borough for at least the next five years.

We will however continue to closely monitor the demand for places in Southall, where birth increases came later. We had expected to need to provide further places in Southall South to the meet the demand generated by higher birth years entering reception from September 2016. However we have revised our projections downwards after the admissions for September 2016 were lower than projected, indicating a further drop in the birth to reception retention in Southall South this year. We have still progressed with a 1FE bulge class at Clifton for September 2016 (meaning that there will be 540 places available) but held back on adding a further bulge class at another school. This option remains available for future years if required. Floreat Southall free school, which deferred entry in 2016, may also provide further additional places in Southall.

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Secondary School Places, 11- 16 year olds

Current Programme

The significant increase in births has just begun to impact on the secondary sector (with the September 2015 intake representing the first cohort since births began to rise and the size of the potential intake rising sharply year on year from September 2016). There are currently surplus places in the secondary sector, primarily concentrated in the west of the borough at two schools in the Greenford, Northolt and Perivale (GNP) planning area. This contrasts with a shortage of places in the east of the borough in the Ealing and Acton areas.

To date, we have delivered a 2FE expansion in Southall in 2012 and added a new 6FE high school in Greenford in 2013. A further 8FE in permanent capacity has been made available from September 2016 in Ealing in two existing high schools ( and Elthorne Park High School) and one new Free School (Ealing Fields High School, which has opened on a temporary site). An additional 2FE will then be available in from 2018. There will also be a 1FE bulge class in an existing high school in Southall () from 2016, which will then become permanent from 2017.

Future Programme

In total, there will be 3,426 year 7 places available in September 2016, rising to 3,486 from September 2018. Despite these agreed increases, once the significantly higher numbers of children currently progressing through our primary schools transfer into high school, we expect to have a further overall shortfall in capacity in year 7 from September 2018, and are projecting the need for 6 further forms of entry at secondary level by September 2018, rising to a total of 11FE by September 2019 and 13 by 2021. This is to meet the demand generated by a projected 3,817 children transferring to our secondary schools in 2019 (compared to 2,962 in 2015/16).

Plans are in place to meet this need through the establishment of two further new Free Schools (an Ark High School and North Twyford High School) which together would provide 12.5FE of secondary places and are detailed further below.

These projections assume that the primary (year 6) to secondary (year 7) retention ratio will have recovered back to 85% by 2019. The current ratio is 80.6%, which is higher than the previous year (79.3%) but remains historically low. Ealing currently exports 26% of its secondary age children to out borough state funded high schools (January 2016), while importing only 11% of its high school intake. In total the net difference is now almost 3000 children, an increase of 600 in the past three years, making Ealing the largest net exporter of secondary pupils in London by some margin – with cross border flows between Hounslow (1028), Hillingdon (829) and Hammersmith and Fulham (422) contributing the bulk of the net exports. This has been largely due to demand significantly outstripping capacity in the Ealing area of the borough, where the current secondary schools are operating at full capacity. The latest admission figures suggest that this figure will recover to 83.5% this year, with the availability of additional places in popular existing schools and the opening of Ealing Fields Free School. We feel it is then pertinent to plan for an incremental rise in retention back to 85% by 2019, given

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that all high schools in the borough are now rated good or outstanding by Ofsted and given the likely popularity of agreed additional places at Greenford High School and the proposed new North Twyford and Ark secondary Free Schools.

The table below shows year-by-year the planned high school capacity already agreed and the shortfall by area within the borough

LB Ealing High school planning LB Ealing shortfall Acton Ealing GNP Southall areas shortfall (if you zero off the excess) Agreed high school 38.3 (rising 114.2 (rising to 116.2 from capacity (PAN) - in 21.5 29.3 to 40.3 from 25.0 Sep 18) Forms of entry * Sep 18) Sep-16 -0.2 0.0 4.0 0.4 4.2 -0.2 Sep-17 -0.5 0.1 2.0 -0.3 1.3 -0.7 Sep-18 -4.4 -0.4 2.4 -0.9 -3.3 -5.7 Sep-19 -6.6 -3.5 0.2 -1.2 -11.0 -11.2 Sep-20 -7.2 -2.4 0.3 -0.8 -10.1 -10.1 Sep-21 -7.7 -3.5 0.4 -1.5 -12.4 -12.4 Sep-22 -7.7 -3.6 0.1 -1.5 -12.6 -12.6

* Includes additional 9FE at Brentside, Elthorne Park, Featherstone and Ealing Fields from 2016 and 2FE at Greenford from 2018

Site Acquisitions Free Schools and Compulsory Purchase Orders

The Planning for Schools Development Planning Document (DPD) was adopted in May 2016 and references eight sites which have been identified to meet the future demand for school places.

Several of the eight sites identified in the DPD are presently in private ownership and the Council has been working with the Education Funding Agency, acting on behalf of the Department for Education, to acquire these sites from the current owners. Current central government policy for the establishment of new schools prescribes that these should be Academies and funded as part of the Free School programme.

Dialogue with site owners is underway and overall has been considered productive. However in the event of failure to reach agreement on the acquisition of any of the sites identified in the DPD, Cabinet has previously authorised compulsory purchase on the grounds of the acute need for additional school places and limited alternative options.

High School Bulge Classes 2016 and 2017

The Council projects a requirement for an additional 11 forms of entry in high schools by 2019 (on top of the current/agreed 116FE) with the first 6 forms of entry needed for September 2018. To date the strategy for meeting the need for high school places has been through the expansion of two existing high schools, Brentside and Elthorne Park, by 2FE each with a further 4FE provided the Ealing Fields Free School which opened in

5 temporary accommodation in September 2016. Greenford High School is also scheduled to expand by 2FE from September 2018.

There are limited options to permanently further expand existing high schools due to limited space on the sites. The Council is currently working with the EFA to meet this need by establishing two further Free Schools and also to ensure that Ealing Fields Free School is able to move to a permanent site.

In light of the Council’s statutory duty to facilitate sufficient school places in the borough, coupled with the present uncertainty around the approved Free Schools being able to open as currently planned, Cabinet approval is to be requested for officers to progress with contingency plans to establish bulge accommodation in existing high schools in the Ealing and Acton area. These proposals would be implemented in the event that the planned Free Schools are unable to open as currently planned. It should be emphasised that these options would be based upon providing bulge accommodation only (i.e. a temporary increase in pupil numbers intended to provide a short term solution).

Places for pupils with special Educational Needs (primary, secondary and post 16)

Local Authorities have overall responsibility for ensuring that children’s Special Educational Needs (SEN) are met. A revised statutory framework under the Children and Families Act was brought into force in September 2014. Local Authorities must keep under review the educational, training and social care provision made for children who have SEN or a disability and consider the extent to which the provision is sufficient to meet the needs of the children and young people concerned.

Trends and projections

The number of primary age children (3-10) with statements or Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) has increased by 300 over the past seven years from 618 in 2008/09 to 919 in 2015/16. The prevalence of statements / EHCPs has increased from 1.9% of the 3-10 population to 2.4% over the same period. Just under half (49%) of these were in specialist provision in 2015/16. The latest data for September 2016 shows this figure is currently 923. If these trends continue then we would expect this number to increase further over the next 3 years to 963 (as the last of the higher birth years progress through primary school) before levelling off.

The number of secondary age children (11-15) with statements or EHCPs has seen much less growth over the same period, only increasing from 641 in 2008/09 to 671 in 2015/16. The prevalence has increased slightly from 3.4% to 3.5% over the same period. Just over half (54%) of these were in specialist provision. The latest data for September 2016 shows this figure is currently 690. If these trends continue then we would expect the secondary statement / EHCP population to increase year on year to 819 over the next 5 years (by 2021/22) as the higher birth years currently in the primary phase progress into secondary, increasing further to 853 ten years from now. This increase could however be larger if the increase in the prevalence seen in primary is replicated in the secondary phase (with each 0.1% increase in prevalence the equivalent of approximately 20 secondary age children).

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The largest increase in the past two years has been in post 16 and post 19 as young people in further education colleges and other specialist post 16 institutions who would not previously have had a statement now subject to an Education Health and Care Plan. This has resulted in the post 16 EHCP population increasing from 172 in 2014/15 to 293 in September 2016. There are also now 70 young people with EHCPs who are post 19.

Current Programme

Since 2013 the Council has expanded special schools by 131 places (with 91 of these in primary age schools and 40 in all through schools). Further capacity has been added in the form of Additional Resource Provision (ARPs) in main stream schools through a new unit for 21 pupils at West Acton Primary School, which brings the total number of ARP places in Primary phase schools to 126 (18 places per year). In high schools, a 30 place ARP is now open at William Perkins and approval has been given to 15 places at Elthorne High (2017) and Greenford 20 places (2018) – a total of 17 places per year including the already established provision at Dormers Wells High. Capital resources have been allocated for a further high school ARP (20 places) at a location to be determined, bringing the total places per year to 21 places when fully implemented.

Future requirements

For main stream school provision, as part of the capital budgeting process currently underway, a proposal has been made to establish 35 further places (5 places per year) in primary phase ARPs across three schools and one further ARP at a high school which would provide an additional 20 places (4 places per year). For secondary phase special schools, from 2018, we anticipate that there will be additional demand as more pupils leave the expanded primary special schools and move through into the secondary sector. We increasingly look to develop more local provision for secondary age students to decrease our dependency on out borough, non- maintained and independent specialist provision. Option schemes are undergoing design development at Belvue School and St Ann’s school exploring how best to adapt these schools to meet the increased demand for places and the anticipated changing need profiles of students.

For post 16 provision, the LA has completed a widespread review of SEN Post 16 commissioning with a focus on identifying pathways which offer the best opportunities for young people to prepare for adulthood. Discussions have taken place with colleges and schools on the nature and extent of provision, including understanding how best to meet student’s needs for access to work, community inclusion, independent living and health.

The consensus view is that moving forward with arrangements that allow colleges and schools to plan and deliver programmes more closely together will achieve better outcomes for young people through to 25 years and beyond. In the first instance, the Ken Acock Centre at Belvue School has added work-related provision for those with learning difficulties and providing a strong vocational pathway from school to college for a group of young people significantly under-represented in the workforce. Further Post 16 initiatives are being explored with Ealing’s other secondary phase special school including Springhallow, John Chilton and St Ann’s reflecting the specific needs of the students at these schools.

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Up to 40 further post 16 places will be needed in the Borough. The West London post 16 review has also highlighted collaborative working to expand the range of options and use our combined specialisms. A variety of routes for securing new provision is available, including a combination of existing special schools, colleges and exploring mechanisms of accessing the DfE’s programme of sponsored Free Special Schools.

2. Legal Implications

Councils have a statutory duty to ensure that there are sufficient school places in their area. They must also promote high educational standards, increased parental choice, ensure fair access to educational opportunity and promote the fulfilment of every child’s educational potential.

The process of establishing a new state school varies depending upon the type of school and type of proposer. Where the proposer is the Council and the unmet need is not for a new PRU or for a Maintained nursery school it must first be ascertained if anybody will establish a new or free school.

There are a range of ‘alterations’ to maintained schools which can and cannot be made depending upon the proposal. There are no proposals in this paper which cannot be made.

3. Financial Implications

Expansion of school places requires significant capital spend and the estimated expenditure for the agreed programme is subject to review and may change. The schemes described in this report where taking place on maintained schools will all be funded from the existing approved budgets in the capital programme which are summarised in the table below.

2016/17 Budget Budget Budget Budget Item Scheme to 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 £m £m £m £m £m Primary Schools Expansions 14.710 5.965 20.675 SEN Expansions 4.517 11.000 3.500 19.017 Secondary Schools Expansions 25.596 26.080 8.432 60.108

The detailed expenditure for the schemes will be monitored by the Budget Holder and Service Management as part of the overall monitoring process. The Education Funding Agency directly meets the capital costs of the Free School programme.

4. Other Implications None

5. Background papers 8

Reports to Cabinet on need to increase school places in primary schools (particularly the reports of April 2008, December 2008, April 2009, September 2009, January 2010, July 2010, December 2010, January 2011, July 2011, September 2011, December 2011, January 2012, March 2012, July 2012, December 2012, January 2013, March 2013, June 2013, October 2013, April 2014 and September 2015) are available on the Council’s website at the following address: http://ealing.cmis.uk.com/ealing/Home.aspx

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Consultation

Name of consultee Department Date sent Date Comments to response appear in report consultee received para: from consultee Judith Finlay Executive Director Children 23/09/16 and Adults Gary Redhead Assistant Director, Schools 23/09/16 Planning and Resources Cllr. Binda Rai Portfolio Holder, Children 23/09/16 and Young People Justin Morley Head of Legal Services 23/09/16 26/09/16 (Social Care and Education) Mel Dharmakirthi Senior Finance Business 23/09/16 Advisor Cllr. Mik Sabiers 23/09/16 26/09/16 Cllr. Anthony 23/09/16 26/09/16 Young

Report History

Decision type: N/A

For information

Authorised by Cabinet Date report Report deadline: Date report sent: member: drafted: 23/09/16 27/09/16 27/09/16

Report no.: Report author and contact for queries: Adam Whalley Schools Programme and Commercial Manager [email protected] 020 8825 9420

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