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Briefing Seoul Office Sector Q3 2018

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Briefing Seoul Office Sector Q3 2018 Savills World Research Korea Briefing Seoul office sector Q3 2018 Image : GBD, Seoul SUMMARY Demand for Seoul’s prime office space continued to grow from the previous quarter into Q3. Total absorption for the first nine months of 2018 reached 140% above the five-year average. Despite buoyant export and Vigorous marketing and consumption levels, the Bank strong demand from co-working “Total investment volume up to of Korea has forecasted the operators and call-centres country’s economic growth at absorbed long-term empty space Q3/2018 has eclipsed the all- 2.7%, citing sluggish employment in the CBD and the YBD. and adjustments in construction time record for the same period and facilities investment. Despite the new supply of last year by 130%.” Gangnam N Tower (51,130 sq m) Rental prices rose 2.6% in the GBD, strong demand Savills Research in the CBD, 1.4% in the GBD, for the area caused the GBD and 0.6% in the YBD from the vacancy rate to rise only 1 ppt previous year. from the previous quarter. savills.co.kr/research 01 Briefing |Seoul office sector Q3 2018 Supply Table 1 In Q3/2018, two major projects, Monthly rents, maintenance fees and vacancy rates by district, Q3/2018 Centropolis (CBD) and Gangnam Rent Maintenance fee Average Net absorption Vacancy rate (%) N Tower (GBD), were completed. District YoY increase YoY increase Average rent maintenance area (sq m) (Prev. Q) (%) (%) Located near Jongak Station, fee Centropolis held its ribbon-cutting CBD 106,400 2.6% 42,400 2.4% 63,500 12.7% (14.9%) ceremony in October only after completion of the Urban Environment GBD 94,100 1.4% 38,700 1.8% 17,100 8.0% (6.9%) Improvement Project and approval of its building use permit, that occurred YBD 79,700 0.6% 37,700 1.5% 34,200 15.6% (18.2%) in July. Given that tenants can only Overall Seoul 97,000 1.8% 40,200 2.0% 114,800 11.76% (13.03%) practically move in after Q4, Savills average Korea Research’s analysis of Q3 rental Source: Savills Korea (Unit : KRW/3.3sq m, GLA) and vacancy rates do not reflect this Table 2 new supply. New supply, Q3/2018 SK Telecom and Kumho Asiana Building Gangnam N Tower Group, which recently sold its Kumho Name Asiana Building, are expected to move into Centropolis end of this or 648-9, Yeoksam-dong, GFA Address 51,130 early next year. Located on Teheran- Gangnam-gu (sq m) ro, Gangnam N Tower was purchased by KB Real Estate Trust, which also Completion Aug 2018 Floor 25F / B6 signed a leasing agreement to take up Year offices covering approximately 15% Source: Savills Korea of total office space. Cryptocurrency exchange Korbit also signed a leasing Graph 1 contract and is expected to move in Growth rate of real GDP and real exports, 2006 – 2019 (F) during Q4. In addition, a co-working Economic growth (GDP, annual variance in %) Export growth (annual variance in %) space (Workflex) managed by Lotte 18% 17.1% Asset Development recently signed 16% an agreement to move in during 14% Q1/2019. 12.4% 13.5% 12% 13.4% Demand and Vacancy 10% 8% Rate 6.0% 6.5% The Bank of Korea lowered its 6% 5.2% 5.5% 4.4% 4.5% 3.3% 3.8% economic outlook to 2.7% for both 4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.7% 2.6% 2018 and 2019. Compared to July 2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 0.7% 2.3% 0.5% 2.2% expectations, forecasts for this year 0% 0.4% were lowered by 0.2 of a percentage 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F point (ppt) from 2.9% and by 0.1 Source: Bank of Korea of a ppt from 2.8% for next year. Graph 2 The Bank attributed the 2.7% Number of employees in the finance and insurance sectors, growth to favourable movements in consumption and exports, Sep 2009 – Sep 2018 Financial institutions & insurance employees (LHS) although adjustments in facilities and Unit: thousand Total employment (RHS) construction investment will persist 1,200 28,000 for the rest of this year. Employment 1,100 26,000 conditions also remain sluggish with the number of employed rising only 1,000 24,000 slightly. In light of expansionary fiscal 900 22,000 policies for 2019, continued growth in exports and consumption is likely. 800 20,000 The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board has held its base rate at 1.5% 700 18,000 for 11 consecutive months. The Board 600 16,000 will maintain its accommodative Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 monetary policy stance, forecasting Source: Korean Statistical Information Service savills.co.kr/research 02 Briefing |Seoul office sector Q3 2018 that inflationary pressures on the into seven floors at Center Place, space shrank following the move- demand side will not be high for the taking up 12,500 sq m of vacant in by WeWork during the previous time being and that the domestic space. Ctrip (a Chinese online travel quarter as well as expansions by economy will sustain a rate of growth agency) and Amazon moved into and Mercedes-Benz and 11 Street, prime- that does not diverge significantly began their call-center operations in to-prime relocations by Dongbu Steel from its potential level. Jongno Tower and Pine Avenue A, and Exxon Mobil Korea from buildings respectively. near Seoul Station, and upgrade Demand for Seoul prime office relocations by Oilhub Korea Yeosu space in the CBD, GBD, and YBD for Also contributing to the declining and La Prairie. Q3/2018 continued to rise compared vacancy rate in the CBD, SK to the previous quarter. The CBD Innovation and a number of SK The GBD’s vacancy rate rose to 8.0% experienced the most tenant activity, subsidiary companies relocated despite a rise in demand due to new recording net absorption of 63,500 to four floors in Gran Seoul. This supply. As of end of September, sq m. The GBD and YBD recorded net relocation comes as construction Gangnam N Tower had leased 40% absorption of 17,100 sq m and 34,200 begins on the remodeling of SK of its office space. Expansion of co- sq m respectively. The combined net Group’s main headquarters in working spaces continues even in the absorption for the three business SK Seorin Building in-to an open GBD, with FastFive opening a new districts was 209,500 sq m for the workspace and hot-desk layout. branch in Platinum Tower and Dream period up to Q3/2018, a level that is Seoul Square’s 10,200 sq m of vacant Plus, a co-working brand operated by 1.4 times greater than the five-year annual-average net absorption of 150,000 sq m. Graph 3 Take-up, Q3/2018 For Q3/2018, the Seoul prime office By type By district vacancy rate was 11.8%, down 1.3 ppts from the previous quarter. The GBD’s vacancy rate rose to 8.0%, up New 1.1 ppts from the previous quarter as organisation a result of the completion of Luceen 19.8% Secondary YBD Tower in Q2 and Gangnam N Tower in to prime 30.0% Q3. But falling CBD and YBD vacancy 34.7% CBD rates contributed to an overall decline Expansion 50.9% of the Seoul prime office vacancy rate, 20.7% compared to the previous quarter. Prime to CBD buildings including Jongno GBD prime Tower, Center Place and Booyoung 19.1% 24.8% Taepyeong Building experienced a sizeable drop, contributing to the lowest CBD vacancy rate in four Source: Savills Korea years at 12.7%. The YBD’s vacancy Graph 4 rate fell to 15.6%, down 2.6 ppts Net absorption, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018 from the previous quarter, with new tenants moving into FKI Tower, IFC 3 Unit: sq m CBD GBD YBD and Yeouido Finance Tower, which 350,000 had been experiencing significant 300,000 vacancies. 250,000 200,000 The CBD’s vacancy rate fell 150,000 significantly as Hana Card, WeWork 100,000 and Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance moved to locations such as Center 50,000 Place, Jongno Tower and Booyoung 0 Taepyeong Building repectively, which -50,000 had been unoccupied for over a year -100,000 after tenants such as Samsung Life -150,000 Insurance and Samsung Fire & Marine -200,000 Insurance moved out. Hana Card Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 and KEB Hana Bank’s call-centers 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 moved from Jongno Samil Building Source: Savills Korea savills.co.kr/research 03 Briefing |Seoul office sector Q3 2018 Hanwha group, signing an expansion Graph 5 contract for three floors of Hanwha Seoul prime office vacancy rate, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018 Finance Center Seocho. In addition, much of the vacant office space has CBD GBD YBD 30% been taken, with upgrade relocations by companies such as an eyewear 25% group Luxottica Korea (ASEM Tower), security consulting firm HackersLab 20% (Platinum Tower), and genetic services company Genoplan Korea(Kyobo 15% Gangnam Tower).
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