Savills World Research Korea

Briefing office sector Q3 2018

Image : GBD, Seoul SUMMARY Demand for Seoul’s prime office space continued to grow from the previous quarter into Q3. Total absorption for the first nine months of 2018 reached 140% above the five-year average.

 Despite buoyant export and  Vigorous marketing and consumption levels, the Bank strong demand from co-working “Total investment volume up to of Korea has forecasted the operators and call-centres country’s economic growth at absorbed long-term empty space Q3/2018 has eclipsed the all- 2.7%, citing sluggish employment in the CBD and the YBD. and adjustments in construction time record for the same period and facilities investment.  Despite the new supply of last year by 130%.” Gangnam N Tower (51,130 sq m)  Rental prices rose 2.6% in the GBD, strong demand Savills Research in the CBD, 1.4% in the GBD, for the area caused the GBD and 0.6% in the YBD from the vacancy rate to rise only 1 ppt previous year. from the previous quarter.

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Supply Table 1 In Q3/2018, two major projects, Monthly rents, maintenance fees and vacancy rates by district, Q3/2018 Centropolis (CBD) and Gangnam Rent Maintenance fee Average Net absorption Vacancy rate (%) N Tower (GBD), were completed. District YoY increase YoY increase Average rent maintenance area (sq m) (Prev. Q) (%) (%) Located near Jongak Station, fee Centropolis held its ribbon-cutting CBD 106,400 2.6% 42,400 2.4% 63,500 12.7% (14.9%) ceremony in October only after completion of the Urban Environment GBD 94,100 1.4% 38,700 1.8% 17,100 8.0% (6.9%) Improvement Project and approval of its building use permit, that occurred YBD 79,700 0.6% 37,700 1.5% 34,200 15.6% (18.2%) in July. Given that tenants can only Overall Seoul 97,000 1.8% 40,200 2.0% 114,800 11.76% (13.03%) practically move in after Q4, Savills average Korea Research’s analysis of Q3 rental Source: Savills Korea (Unit : KRW/3.3sq m, GLA) and vacancy rates do not reflect this Table 2 new supply. New supply, Q3/2018

SK Telecom and Kumho Asiana Building Gangnam N Tower Group, which recently sold its Kumho Name Asiana Building, are expected to move into Centropolis end of this or 648-9, Yeoksam-dong, GFA Address 51,130 early next year. Located on Teheran- Gangnam-gu (sq m) ro, Gangnam N Tower was purchased by KB Real Estate Trust, which also Completion Aug 2018 Floor 25F / B6 signed a leasing agreement to take up Year offices covering approximately 15% Source: Savills Korea of total office space. Cryptocurrency exchange Korbit also signed a leasing Graph 1 contract and is expected to move in Growth rate of real GDP and real exports, 2006 – 2019 (F) during Q4. In addition, a co-working Economic growth (GDP, annual variance in %) Export growth (annual variance in %) space (Workflex) managed by Lotte 18% 17.1% Asset Development recently signed 16% an agreement to move in during 14% Q1/2019. 12.4% 13.5% 12% 13.4% Demand and Vacancy 10% 8% Rate 6.0% 6.5% The Bank of Korea lowered its 6% 5.2% 5.5% 4.4% 4.5% 3.3% 3.8% economic outlook to 2.7% for both 4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.7% 2.6% 2018 and 2019. Compared to July 2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 0.7% 2.3% 0.5% 2.2% expectations, forecasts for this year 0% 0.4% were lowered by 0.2 of a percentage 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F point (ppt) from 2.9% and by 0.1 Source: Bank of Korea of a ppt from 2.8% for next year. Graph 2 The Bank attributed the 2.7% Number of employees in the finance and insurance sectors, growth to favourable movements in consumption and exports, Sep 2009 – Sep 2018 Financial institutions & insurance employees (LHS) although adjustments in facilities and Unit: thousand Total employment (RHS) construction investment will persist 1,200 28,000 for the rest of this year. Employment 1,100 26,000 conditions also remain sluggish with the number of employed rising only 1,000 24,000 slightly. In light of expansionary fiscal 900 22,000 policies for 2019, continued growth in exports and consumption is likely. 800 20,000 The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board has held its base rate at 1.5% 700 18,000 for 11 consecutive months. The Board 600 16,000 will maintain its accommodative Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 monetary policy stance, forecasting Source: Korean Statistical Information Service

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that inflationary pressures on the into seven floors at Center Place, space shrank following the move- demand side will not be high for the taking up 12,500 sq m of vacant in by WeWork during the previous time being and that the domestic space. Ctrip (a Chinese online travel quarter as well as expansions by economy will sustain a rate of growth agency) and Amazon moved into and Mercedes-Benz and 11 Street, prime- that does not diverge significantly began their call-center operations in to-prime relocations by Dongbu Steel from its potential level. Jongno Tower and Pine Avenue A, and Exxon Mobil Korea from buildings respectively. near , and upgrade Demand for Seoul prime office relocations by Oilhub Korea Yeosu space in the CBD, GBD, and YBD for Also contributing to the declining and La Prairie. Q3/2018 continued to rise compared vacancy rate in the CBD, SK to the previous quarter. The CBD Innovation and a number of SK The GBD’s vacancy rate rose to 8.0% experienced the most tenant activity, subsidiary companies relocated despite a rise in demand due to new recording net absorption of 63,500 to four floors in Gran Seoul. This supply. As of end of September, sq m. The GBD and YBD recorded net relocation comes as construction Gangnam N Tower had leased 40% absorption of 17,100 sq m and 34,200 begins on the remodeling of SK of its office space. Expansion of co- sq m respectively. The combined net Group’s main headquarters in working spaces continues even in the absorption for the three business SK Seorin Building in-to an open GBD, with FastFive opening a new districts was 209,500 sq m for the workspace and hot-desk layout. branch in Platinum Tower and Dream period up to Q3/2018, a level that is Seoul Square’s 10,200 sq m of vacant Plus, a co-working brand operated by 1.4 times greater than the five-year annual-average net absorption of 150,000 sq m. Graph 3 Take-up, Q3/2018 For Q3/2018, the Seoul prime office By type By district vacancy rate was 11.8%, down 1.3 ppts from the previous quarter. The GBD’s vacancy rate rose to 8.0%, up New 1.1 ppts from the previous quarter as organisation a result of the completion of Luceen 19.8% Secondary YBD Tower in Q2 and Gangnam N Tower in to prime 30.0% Q3. But falling CBD and YBD vacancy 34.7% CBD rates contributed to an overall decline Expansion 50.9% of the Seoul prime office vacancy rate, 20.7% compared to the previous quarter. Prime to CBD buildings including Jongno GBD prime Tower, Center Place and Booyoung 19.1% 24.8% Taepyeong Building experienced a sizeable drop, contributing to the lowest CBD vacancy rate in four Source: Savills Korea years at 12.7%. The YBD’s vacancy Graph 4 rate fell to 15.6%, down 2.6 ppts Net absorption, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018 from the previous quarter, with new tenants moving into FKI Tower, IFC 3 Unit: sq m CBD GBD YBD and Yeouido Finance Tower, which 350,000 had been experiencing significant 300,000 vacancies. 250,000 200,000 The CBD’s vacancy rate fell 150,000 significantly as Hana Card, WeWork 100,000 and Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance moved to locations such as Center 50,000 Place, Jongno Tower and Booyoung 0 Taepyeong Building repectively, which -50,000 had been unoccupied for over a year -100,000 after tenants such as Life -150,000 Insurance and Samsung Fire & Marine -200,000 Insurance moved out. Hana Card Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 and KEB Hana Bank’s call-centers 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 moved from Jongno Samil Building Source: Savills Korea

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Hanwha group, signing an expansion Graph 5 contract for three floors of Hanwha Seoul prime office vacancy rate, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018 Finance Center Seocho. In addition, much of the vacant office space has CBD GBD YBD 30% been taken, with upgrade relocations by companies such as an eyewear 25% group Luxottica Korea (ASEM Tower), security consulting firm HackersLab 20% (Platinum Tower), and genetic services company Genoplan Korea(Kyobo 15% Gangnam Tower). 10%

The YBD recorded a vacancy rate 5% of 15.6% for Q3/2018, a significant drop from 24.5% in Q1/2018 and a 0%

continuation of a declining trend from Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 the previous quarter. IFC 3 and FKI 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tower which faced a massive surplus Source: Savills Korea of space after losing LG, leased a combined 34,400 sq m of space to Graph 6 various companies in the financial YoY rental increase rate by district, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018 industry such as banks, securities CBD GBD YBD CPI growth rate(YoY) companies, asset management 9% companies and foreign-owned 8% entreprises. Samsung Securities’ IT 7% team moved to FKI Tower from KT 6% Yeouido Building, and KB Bank’s IT 5% department started moving in to one 4% floor this quarter, with plans to expand 3% its presence to four floors. Seeking additional workspace after expanding 2% its workforce, both KB AMC and 1% KClavis AMC moved to IFC 3. In order 0% to save costs, Diageo moved to IFC 3 -1%

from Gangnam Finance Center. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

In addition, tenants are relocating to Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea nearby prime office buildings ahead will relocate to Seoul Square from SK of the demolition of the Teachers’ Outlook Pension HQ. The Teachers’ Pension Four prime office uildingsb (totaling Namsan Building, located near Seoul HQ will be demolished by 2019, and 321,600 sq m) have been completed, Station, and FastFive will open a new branch (first in the CBD) at Signature reconstruction will begin in 2020. Call- as scheduled, in 2018: Centropolis Tower, lowering vacanices in the center solutions provider Bridgetec (CBD), Luceen Tower and Gangnam N CBD. More vacancies in the CBD has moved to Yeouido Finance Tower, Tower (GBD), and The K Tower (Korea will shrink when SK Telecom’s new and SV Investment to IFC 3. Teachers’ Credit Union Building) in the division and Kumho Asiana Group YBD. Rent both move into the Centropolis, either by end of this year or early In Q3/2018, average face rent In the CBD, Kumho Tire will move next year. However, since the for Seoul prime office space was to Heungkuk Life Building from the KRW97,000/3.3m², up 1.8% year-on- newly-constructed Centropolis now Concodian (formerly Kumho Asiana year (YoY) and up 0.2% quarter-on- represents 4% of the CBD`s total Main Building) in Q4. Moreover, legal quarter (QoQ). Rental growth varied by prime office area, the CBD’s vacancy firm Shin & Kim plans to relocate to district, recording 2.6% in the CBD, rate is expected to rise with the 1.4% in the GBD, and 0.6% in the YBD D Tower from State Tower Namsan inclusion of Centropolis in our Q4 YoY, and 0.1% in the CBD, 0.5% in the in Q1/2019, but these movements analysis of rent and vacancy rates. GBD QoQ, while the YBD remained the by themselves will not impact on same QoQ. After rising earlier this year, the CBD’s vacancy rate because The GBD’s vacancy rate, which has rent prices remained stable in Q3/2018 they are considered prime-to-prime risen due to new supply, is expected compared to the previous quarter. movements. During Q4, SK Shipping to fall to 6% in the next quarter. IT

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and BT businesses in high-growth CBD prime offices in to IFC 3. This Q3 dropped to 12%. On the back of industries and upgrade relocations will lead to a decrease in the YBD October’s Centropolis deal, estimated by tenants within the GBD will drive vacancy rate and an increase in the to be worth over KRW1.1 trillion, the down the vacancy rate. Medical CBD vacancy rate. percentage of overseas investors is devices manufacturer BD Korea will expected to be similar to last year. relocate to Arc Place from Iimsung Transactions and Building in Yeoksam-dong, as well Investment market A KORAMCO–NH Investment as an e-commerce company eBay The office investment market Securities consortium acquired the Korea, currently located in Gangnam continued its strong momentum in Samsung C&T Seocho building Finance Center, will open a new Q3/2018. Total office transaction located in Samsung Town for office. With no additional new supply volume for Q1/2018-Q3/2018 came KRW748.4 billion. Samsung Town in sight until the end of 2020, the to KRW8.6 trillion (KRW2.4 trillion in consists of three buildings near GBD’s vacancy rate is expected to Q3/2018), reaching a level of 97% Gangnam Station: Samsung Life fall steadily. of last year’s transaction volume, Insurance, Samsung C&T and which was already a record number. Samsung Seocho Building. With Driven by aggressive leasing Including the Samsung C&T Seocho marketing, the falling vacancy rate megadeal, which was worth over Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance in the YBD is expected to persist KRW500 billion, in Q3/2018 all of the as the master tenant until 2021, the into Q4/2018. FKI Tower will lease market’s prime building transactions building traded hands at KRW30.5 out four additional floors to Kookmin have occurred in the GBD. million per pyeong, recording the Bank’s IT services, lowering the market’s highest ever unit price per YBD’s vacancy rate by 1 ppt. Also With abundant liquidity in the market, pyeong. NH Investment & Securities in Q4, Novartis (Yonsei Severance overall asset prices rose by Q3 while underwrote the deal and both NHUF Building), Marsh & McLennan the average unit price set a new (National Housing and Urban Fund) (Seoul Finance Center), and Quad record. With domestic securities and NACF (National Agricultural Investment Management (The K firms actively underwriting deals, the Cooperative Federation) are known to Twin Towers) will all move out of the portion of overseas investors through have participated as investors.

Table 3 Major tenant relocations, Q3/2018

To From

District Building Tenant Area (sq m) District Building

Gran Seoul SK Innovation 14,300 CBD SK Seorin Building CBD, Center Place Hana Card 7,200 Samil Bldg/ Chungjeongno/Mullae Non-core Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance Booyoung Taepyeong Building Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance 6,000 CBD Bongnae 1 Bldg CBD Center Place KEB Hana Bank 5,300 CBD Samil Building

Pine Avenue A Amazon 4,400 GBD, New GS Tower/ New

Jongno Tower WeWork 3,900 New

KCCI Ministry of Economy and Finance 3,000 New

Hanwha Finance Center Seocho Dream Plus 5,200 Expansion

Platinum Tower FastFive 3,700 New GBD ASEM Tower Luxottica Korea 3,300 GBD GuGu Building

DB Finance Center DB Finance 3,200 Expansion

IFC 3 KB AMC 6,600 YBD Shinhan Investment Tower

FKI Tower Samsung Securities 6,400 YBD KT Yeouido Building YBD Yeouido Finance Tower Bridgetec 4,000 YBD Teacher's Pension HQ KB Kookmin Bank Yeouido FKI Tower KB Kookmin Bank 3,400 YBD Data Center

Source: Savills Korea

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The Gangnam N Tower, developed Graph 7 by Yeoksam PFV, was acquired by Office transaction volumes, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018 KB Real Estate Trust for KRW452.5 billion. KB Real Estate Trust and S1 Unit: KRW (Trillion) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 purchased KRW10 billion in common 10 stock in KB Gangnam Office No.1 9

REITs. Two securities firms acquired 8 the remaing portion. The seller, 7 Yeoksam PFV, will guarantee rental income of KRW2 billion every month 6 up to KRW24 billion for one year, 5 and will additionally provide tenant 4 improvements worth KRW2 billion 3 as well as marketing expenses. The office leasing contract ratio at the time 2 of completion was 12%, but the rate 1 increased to 40% as of the end of 0 September 2018. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Savills Korea KB Securities, Hana Financial Graph 8 Investment and Yuanta Securities Prime office building cap rate trend, Q1/2007 – Q3/2018 acquired Gangnam P Tower, the Spread (RHS) Cap rate (LHS) 5yr Treasury bond yield (LHS) current HQ of SPC. Located in 8% 800 Yangjae-dong, Gangnam P Tower was sold for KRW318 billion through 7% 700 Hangang Asset Management. 6% 600 Hangang Asset Management recently acquired the entire stock of KOCREF 5% 500 Yangjae REITs. 4% 400

Platinum Tower was purchased by 3% 300 Orion Partners for KRW214 billion via share transaction. Keumkang Housing 2% 200 also purchased the Gangnam Finance 1% 100 Plaza for KRW183 billion through Mastern Investment management. 0% 0

Keumkang Housing, which already Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 owns Keumkang Tower as its 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 corporate HQ near Gangnam Finance Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea Plaza, has increased its investment Graph 9 in the GBD as its corporate earnings Five-year Treasury bond yield and the BOK base rate trend, have risen. Jan 2012 – Sep 2018

5yr Treasury bond yield The Bank of Korea base rate In Q3/2018, the average prime office 4.0% cap rate stood at 4.7%, calculated using face rent and 90% occupancy. 3.5% However, considering leasing concessions (such as rent free and 3.0% tenant improvement incentives) and actual occupancy rates, the effective 2.5% cap rate is in the low to mid 4% 2.0% range. At the end of September, the five-year Treasury yield increased to 1.5% 2.18%, meaning a prime office cap rate spread of approximately 252 bps. 1.0% Typical LTV rates in Korea remain at approximately 55%.  2012-01-02 2012-03-02 2012-05-02 2012-07-02 2012-09-02 2012-11-02 2013-01-02 2013-03-02 2013-05-02 2013-07-02 2013-09-02 2013-11-02 2014-01-02 2014-03-02 2014-05-02 2014-07-02 2014-09-02 2014-11-02 2015-01-02 2015-03-02 2015-05-02 2015-07-02 2015-09-02 2015-11-02 2016-01-02 2016-03-02 2016-05-02 2016-07-02 2016-09-02 2016-11-02 2017-01-02 2017-03-02 2017-05-02 2017-07-02 2017-09-02 2017-11-02 2018-01-02 2018-03-02 2018-05-02 2018-07-02 2018-09-02 Source: Bank of Korea

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Table 4 Major investment transactions, Q3/2018 Transacted area Transaction Price District Building Name Seller Buyer (sq m) (KRW bil)

CBD Samil Building Small Rock Investment IGIS AMC 35,204 155.0

Samsung C&T Seocho Samsung C&T Koramco AMC 81,117 748.4 Building

Gangnam N Tower Yeoksam PFV KB Real Estate Trust 51,126 452.5

Mirae Asset Global Investments 33,700 / GBD Platinum Tower Mirae Asset Global Investments 214.0 (Orion Partners) 37,182 (GFA)

Gangnam Finance Plaza Pebblestone AMC Mastern AMC 24,179 183.0

Narae Building JS AMC Pebblestone AMC 13,973 78.5

Koramco AMC Seocho Gangnam P Tower Koramco AMC 44,129 318.0 (Hangang Asset AMC)

DMC Dragonfly DMC Tower Dragonfly eSang Networks 19,743 43.5

Source : Savills Korea

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Appendix Overview of the Seoul office market and Savills Korea office survey

TABLE 5 Summary of surveyed buildings, Sep. 2018

CBD GBD YBD Total

Number of buildings 23 12 10 45

A Average GFA (sq m) 85,000 99,000 99,000 92,000

Average year of completion 2006 2004 2005 2005

Number of buildings 22 20 8 50

B Average GFA (sq m) 54,000 48,000 45,000 50,000

Average year of completion 2004 2001 1996 2002

Total number of buildings 45 32 18 95

Total area (sq m) 3,150,000 2,140,000 1,350,000 6,630,000

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

Close to 60% of large office buildings of prime office stock in Seoul. landlords to produce an effective (30,000 sq m or more) in Seoul are Established in 1997, it currently rental figure for NLA. located in three major business comprises 95 of the 122 buildings in districts – the CBD (30%), GBD Seoul classified as "prime" buildings. Cap rate calculation method (17%) and YBD (13%). The CBD Cap rate: (income from interest on is the largest of these districts and Prime buildings: Buildings with a GFA security deposit (5%) + face rent of a is home to major government and greater than 30,000 sq m with good standard floor + residual income from multinational institutions. The GBD accessibility and facilities, a high level maintenance fee) × occupancy rate also houses many multinational of finish, and creditworthy blue-chip (90%) × 12 / transaction amount. companies and is an information tenants. technology centre, while YBD, the For comparison of cap rates of each "Wall Street" of , includes Monthly rent: Surveyed rents are "face transaction case, a 5% interest the headquarters of major securities rents", the asking rents reported by rate on security deposit and 90% firms and broadcasting companies. landlords for mid-level floors. These occupancy rate were uniformly rents are standardised by Savills applied. The Savills Korea Quarterly Office Korea to account for variations in the survey is the longest running survey security deposits required by different

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