Proposed Asian and North American Regional Priorities with a Focus on T-PARC (a focal point for research on Pacific Predictability)

David Parsons Co-chair, North American Regional Committee National Center for Atmospheric Research QuickTime™ and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Asian Priorities for High Impact Weather • Tropical cyclones (mix of funded and proposed)

• Heavy rainfall associated with monsoons

•MJO

• Sand and dust storms

15 June 2006 North American Region 3 Initial Asian Focus on Tropical Cyclones

QuickTime™ and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. One Potential Theme for the North American THORPEX Effort • Pacific predictability

– Many forecast busts for North America appeared to be linked to the failure of models to accurately treat conditions over the Pacific

– Early thinking in the planning of THORPEX was to improve North American forecasts you had to improve the initial conditions over the Pacific

– Currently the THORPEX Executive Board has proposed a regional campaign embedded within a general research focus on this problem

15 June 2006 North American Region 6 West Coast Winter Storms --- How well do we predict these west coast lows, what are the central pressure and position?

Ave SLP error = 3.4 mb Ave position error = 453.8 km SD = 8.7 mb SD = 260 km Absolute error = 7.5 mb June 15, 2006 www.wmo.int/thorpex 7 GFS 48-h Forecasts of 12-hr Precipitation

36h Forecast 24h12h48h ForecastForecast Forecast T║MES June 15, 2006 ESSL NSF 13 October 2005 T║MES00hrJune GFS 15, 2006 24hr GFS 48hr GFS 00hr + 48hr GFS ESSL NSF 13 October 2005 The Downstream Impacts of Pacific Asian Processes • Baroclinic energy conversion over the western and central Pacific is instrumental in maintaining the storm tracks over the eastern North Pacific, North America, and North Atlantic (i.e., Orlanski and Sheldon 1995)

• Plum rain events and Pacific monsoon convection is associated with precipitation over the northern plains of North America (i.e.,Nitta, 1987; Lau and Weng 2000).

• The transition from tropical cyclones to extratropical storms (ET) are associated with a significant drop in predictive skill and the most common over the western Pacific (e.g., Jones et al. 2003).

• Global prediction systems are extremely sensitive to conditions over the western and central Pacific (e.g., Reynolds and Gelaro 2001).

• Persistent, deep convection can trigger Rossby waves.

15 June 2006 North American Region 10 Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (PARC-2008)

• PARC-Asia: Advance understanding and predictability of high-impact weather over Asian and the western Pacific with emphasis on tropical cyclones from genesis to decay/extratropical transition

• PARC-North American Predictability: Advance understanding and predictability of high-impact weather over North America whose forecast errors and dynamical roots lie in process over east Asia and the western Pacific. Phenomena of interest include tropical cyclones, ET storms, and winter cyclogenesis that drive a variety of high-impact weather over North America.

• PARC

– June to December 2008

– THORPEX’s 1st scale interaction experiment with the planning led by the THORPEX International Executive Board

– Perhaps the community’s first field campaign focused on weather phenomena and prediction at the medium range

– Field phase is planned for July-Dec 2008 with facilities phased in and out for different foci

15 June 2006 North American Region 11 Proposing Institutions

• North America – US Academic Community: SUNY at Stony Brook, U. of Hawaii, Naval Post Graduate School, U. of North Carolina Charlotte, Pen. State, U. of Washington, U of Maryland, SUNY Albany, U of Miami, U of Wisconsin, Florida State U – US Research Institutions: NCAR, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Naval Research Lab, NASA/Goddard – Canadian: U McGill, MSC and Others

•Asia – China: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Chinese Meteorological Administration plus members of the Academic Community in China – Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC), Kyoto U, Nagoya U, Tohoku U, Tsukuba U, U of Tokyo –Korea:Korean Meteorological Administration, Cheju National U, Ehwa Womans U, Kongju National U, Kyungpook National U, Seoul National U,Yonsei – Collaboration with an expanded DOTSTAR program

•Europe – Germany: U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR, – Others (hopefully ECMWF and National Met Centers)

15 June 2006 North American Region 12 Collaborative Campaigns and Research Facilities for PARC

Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY

Winter storms and driftsonde ET/ET/cyclogensiscyclogensis UUSS aaircraftircraft PP-3-3 andand GG-4-4 GermanGerman FalconFalcon PARC-2008 • Use of observations for North American science goals

Address mechanisms to initiate wave packets and their role in downstream predictability

Investigate the forecast effects of improved upper-tropospheric analyses along the Asian wave guides

Determine (and improve) uncertainties in the physical and dynamical processes during typhoon genesis, recurvature, and extratropical transition

Determine the importance of additional in-situ targeted, airborne remote sensing, and adaptive satellite observations in the vicinity of tropical cyclones, ET storms and intense winter cyclogenesis on downstream forecasts

Advance knowledge of the complex physical and dynamical conditions during ET

Improve initialization for ET storms (satellite assimilation and evaluate bogusing approaches)

Advance satellite assimilation and test and improve assimilation techniques

Evaluate surface flux parameterizations for high wind events (building on tropical cyclone studies)

15 June 2006 North American Region 14 Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Downstream Impacts

• Improve knowledge of the mechanisms for tropical cyclone genesis over the western Pacific

• Evaluate the ability of coarse grid (operational) models to capture the genesis environment and the genesis process

• Determine the extent to which predictions of genesis and downstream effects can be improved by resolved cloud modeling, local measurements and improved assimilation systems

• Understand what processes limit the prediction of tropical cyclone genesis and in downstream events.

• Understand the role of genesis and intensification in triggering downstream weather events and the extent to which improved depiction of Asian weather impacts downstream forecasts. Decision of tropical storm genesis (1) 9-day forecast weather charts derived from JMA-EPS Initial time is 12UTC of 3rd October 2004.

The unperturbed A Perturbed Normalized forecast forecast spread field

The spread suggests the tropical cyclone genesis.

Provided by S. Tracton, ONR, original from JMA. DOCC (left) vs. NOCC

(right) Disappeared

Error in the low-levels

Large possibility to detect and forecast the genesisJune 15, 2006 of TS by AMSU www.wmo.int/thorpex retrieved air 17 temperature anomaliesCourtesy of Bessho et al. A Series of Three Poorly Predicted Major Downstream Events Initiated by Tropical Convection Western WA flood (Seattle 1-day record) BC’s flood of the Century (18.5”)

CA Wild Fires (downslope winds)

T║MES June 15, 2006 ESSL NSF 13 October 2005 What is happening BC’s flood of the in this region? Century (18.5”)

Western WA Flood (Seattle 1-day record)

CA Wild Fires (downslope winds)

15 June 2006 North American Region 19 TY 20 TD 23 TD 22 TS 21

15 June 2006 North American Region 20 Trajectories of all driftsonds released from Pohnpei and Wake Island from 6/18 to 6/30 2004 at three altitudes (19500 m, 18000 m, and 16500 m) Genesis Area: excellent coverage from Wake Island

June 15, 2006 www.wmo.int/thorpex 21 (Courtesy by Dr. W.-C. Lee) Tropical Cyclone Recurvature and Landfall

• Evaluate improvements in track forecast via targeting and evaluate different targeting strategies (over sampled)

• Evaluate the improvements in forecast skill with high resolution modeling in the local, extratropical transition and in downstream forecast

• Determine the extent to which predictions of recurvature are improved from different measurement strategies (relative impacts of targeting, standard obs and COSMIC)

• Understand what processes limit the prediction of track during recurvature. Strike probability maps for Typhoon Songda based on JMA EPS run initialized at 12 UTC on 2 September 2004 Strike probability maps for Typhoon Songda based on JMA EPS run initialized at 12 UTC on 2 September 2004 conditioned by three actual TC observed positions (at 12, 18, 00 UTC) between the EPS run initial time and data availability time (around 00-01 UTC) at HKO, with actual TC track in black Figure 3 2006年6月15日星期四 Wuwww.wmo.int/thorpex et al. (2006) 25 QuickTime™ and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. For this one case,

nearly all the improvement

is from the soundings QuickTime™ and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. closest to the targeting

region Extratropical Transition

• Improve our understanding of the ET process

• Determine why the downstream impacts of ET storms are so difficult to forecast • Poor characterization of the vortex, • Failure of isotropic assimilation • Inaccurate forecast of when and where the tropical cyclone moves into the westerlies • Nature of the westerly flow • Poor treatment of assimilation process

• Answer the question of whether bogusing helps the prediction of ET storms and their downstream effects or high resolution is necessary

•Impact of various measurement strategies on local and downstream predictions Typhoon Tokage, After Killing Almost 100 People, is Worst in Japan in 25 Years; Japan’s 10 Typhoons in 2004 are Record for Worst Ever (Oct. 2004)

Total Damages in public infrastructure(agriculture, Road, etc) by Typhoon and Heavy Rainfall in Japan this year are US $10 billion.

Typhoon Tokage insurance claims are estimated at 88.5 billion Yen ($839 million).

Tokyo, Japan (HDW) October 23, 2004 - Typhoon Tokage ravaged Kyoto and Tokyo on Japan’s main islands, potentially killing almost 100 people. This typhoon is reported to be the worst since 1979, making it the worst in a generation. Japan has suffered through 10 typhoons this year, which makes this the worst typhoon season by far in Japan’s history. The 2004 season has also been the worst hurricane season on record for the State of Florida within the United States, and the worst typhoon season for the country of China within Asia. Researchers are still trying to setermine exactly what made this one of the worst seasons globally for cyclone activity. The picture above, taken by a NASA satellite, shows Typhoon Tokage devastating the Japanese main islands.Typhoon Tokage was originally expected to weaken, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC), as it tracked into cooler sea surface temperatures and sucked drier air into itself, but the storm maintained much of its strength as it moved through the ancient Japanese capital of Kyoto, and the modern Japanese capital of Tokyo. This typhoon was originally expected to lose power and spare major Japanese cities from the calamities of other typhoons that have hit Japan in this worst of Japanese typhoon seasons. Typhoon Tokage, however, caused great flooding and heavy rains, and many people are still missing. (http://www.hdweather.com/typhoon/typhoon_361.htm)

15 June 2006 North American Region 29 A residence in Shishmaref – after the storm

15 June 2006 North American Region 30 Nome, AK – during the storm

15 June 2006 North American Region 31 Tokage- Downstream Increase in Uncertainty

ECMWF EPS 500 hPa Standard Deviation Forecast from 16 October Forecast from 18 October 17 Oct 19 Oct

25 Oct 27 Oct 0 180 0 0 180 0

15 June 2006 North American Region 32 General Decrease in Forecast Skill for ET Storms ET Tracks Forecast Skill Bifurcation

From Jones et al., 2003: Wea. And Forecasting 15 June 2006 North American Region 33 Intense Winter Cyclogenesis

• What factors currently limit predictability for these events?

• Evaluate strategies for improving cyclogensis and downstream forecasts including Targeting High resolution Improved assimilation Components of the observing sytem

• Evaluate with convention measures and user relevant parameters the various targeting strategies and locations through oversampled measurements and idealized OSSEs October 1994 – March 1999 ExplosivelyExplosively DeepeningDeepening CycloneCyclone Total : 224 cases

Sea of Okhotsk

Sea of Japan Pacific Ocean

Formation: Maximum Deepening: Over the Land and Ocean Higher Latitude than 35°N in Latitude Over the Ocean

Courtesy of Yoshio Asuma (Hokkaido University) June 15, 2006 www.wmo.int/thorpex 35 EnergeticsEnergetics andand ForecastForecast SensitivitySensitivity

FiguresFigures providedprovided byby MatsutaniMatsutani (NCEP),(NCEP), LanglandLangland (NRL),(NRL), ReynoldsReynolds (NRL)(NRL) andand KalnayKalnay (U(U Maryland)Maryland)

TE SVs

June 15, 2006 www.wmo.int/thorpex 36 WillWill PARCPARC happen?happen?

MostMost AsianAsian ComponentsComponents areare funded,funded, butbut notnot yetyet inin NorthNorth America.America.

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