Lost in Re-Election: A Tale of Two Spanish Online Campaigns B Helena Gallego1,2( ), David Laniado2, Andreas Kaltenbrunner1,2, B Vicen¸cG´omez1( ), and Pablo Arag´on1,2 1 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
[email protected],
[email protected] 2 Eurecat - Technology Center of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain Abstract. In the 2010 decade, Spanish politics have transitioned from bipartidism to multipartidism. This change led to an unstable situation which eventually led to the rare scenario of two general elections within six months. The two elections had a mayor difference: two important left-wing parties formed a coalition in the second election while they had run separately in the first one. In the second election and after merging, the coalition lost around 1M votes, contradicting opinion polls. In this study, we perform community analysis of the retweet networks of the online campaigns to assess whether activity in Twitter reflects the outcome of both elections. The results show that the left-wing parties lost more online supporters than the other parties. Furthermore, we find that Twitter activity of the supporters unveils a decrease in engagement especially marked for the smaller party in the coalition, in line with post-electoral traditional polls. Keywords: Twitter · Politics · Political parties · Spanish elections · Online campaigning · Political coalition · Engagement · Political participation 1 Introduction Social media are playing a key role in shaping public debate in political con- texts, forming a new public sphere [6]; it is therefore increasingly important to understand their usage during political campaigns. Social media’s function as a potential mirror of societal trends [5] and their strong impact on voters’ percep- tions and decision making make it important to understand their dynamics and influence [17], and their usage by politicians [1,22].