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Insecurity in Southern Syria: Tracking Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda (January – February 2021)

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Insecurity in Southern Syria: Tracking Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda (January – February 2021) ORSAM POLICY BRIEF 161 MARCH 2021 Insecurıty ın Southern Syrıa: Trackıng Daraa, Quneıtra and Suwayda (January – February 2021) Suhaıl al-Ghazı INTRODUCTION This was without an actual presence of the regime forces and security services in Daraa he Syrian regime forces took control western countryside and parts of the city of T of the governorates of Daraa and Quneitra in the summer of 2018 after Daraa in addition to the return of official and reaching a reconciliation agreement allowing service institutions to all regions of the opposition fighters to remain inside their province. However, this agreement could not areas and join the forces of the Fifth Corps. improve the security situation in the region. Insecurity in Southern Syria: Tracking Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda (January – February 2021) Southern Syria has witnessed ongoing as- a series of assassinations and attacks sassinations and clashes that left hundreds launched by unknown persons against the of dead and wounded for several reasons. Syrian regime forces and reconciled fighters. These reasons include the regime forces’ at- The attacks have increased in intensity in tempts to extend the regime’s control to new December 2020, especially the attack on the areas in violation of the settlement agreement 31st of the same month, which killed 4 soldiers and the desire of internal or external parties and an officer from Fourth Division near the to make the province an arena for settling town of Tsail in the western countryside of scores. This is especially so with the involve- Daraa. This attack angered the 4th Division, ment of Iranian-backed militias trying to ex- headed by Maher Al-Assad, which is consid- pand near the Israeli border and its recruitment ered the most important military division in of local fighters in the ranks of its militia. This terms of deployment in the governorate, in report monitors the most important security addition to several attacks against the divi- incidents and their causes in the three gov- sion's soldiers. These operations gave the ernorates of southern Syria; Daraa, Quneitra pretext for the Fourth Division to mobilize its and As Suwayda in first two months of 2021. forces in the governorate, especially the DARAA western countryside, to try to storm it. The Central Reconciliation Committee in Daraa, Tensions returned to the Daraa Gover- which consists of local figures and former norate at the beginning of January 2021 after leaders of the opposition groups, began ne- INSECURITY IN SOUTHERN SYRIA QuneitraQuneitra IED Gunfire Attacks in Daraa/Quneitra Jan/Feb 2021 Gunfire Attacks IED Attacks The map shows the areas and the intesity of attacks Detailed Control Map of Southern Syria February 2021 Regime Forces & Allied Militias Reconciled Locations (Ex Opposition) Airbase (Active/Not-Active) International Airport International Crossing Border International/Main Roads Southern Syria Control Break Down February DaraaDaraa Daraa Province (87 City/Town/Village) kezi * Center Mer for rı Mi la dd a le rm E ı a t s ş t a e r r 63 Locations A n u S ğ t u o d d ORSAM i a e t r s O * ﻄ* Locations 24 ﻣ ﺳ ﺭ ﻭ ﻜﺯ ﺎﻷ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻕ ﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺎﻟﺸ (Quneitra Province (12 City/Town/Village 9 Locations [email protected] www.orsam.org.tr orsamorgtr 3 Locations © 2021 ORSAM (Ortadoğu Araştırmaları Merkezi). All rights reserved. 2 policy brief 161 Suhail al-Ghazi gotiations with regime officials reached an agreement on Feb- under Russian auspices to reach ruary 3. In this agreement the a truce. However, the regime local factions were to hand over requested the deportation of 6 their heavy and medium people to northern Syria, in- weapons to the regime forces, cluding Muhammad al-Subaihi, to hand over the wanted people who killed 9 policemen in the to the Eighth Brigade in the town of Muzayrib in May 2020, Fifth Corps, which is composed The Fourth Division after his son and son-in-law of the local reconciled factions, was able to reach were found dead in the coun- while Muhammad al-Subaihi new areas and tryside of Daraa. The regime and his family will be displaced establish also demanded that the local to another area in Daraa. The checkpoints inside factions hand over the medium agreement also will allow the western weapons in exchange for guar- regime forces to enter Tafas countryside and antees of not being attacked. and revitalize state institutions, weaken the local These requests were rejected establishing a military post for factions by forcing by the local figures in the Daraa the Fourth Division in the west them to hand over western countryside and con- part of Daraa as well as estab- their weapons. sidered them unreasonable, lishing a Russian military police While Russia while the six persons refused post in the region. However, benefited by to be displaced to northern Syr- the implementation of the avoiding a military ia. After the end of the negoti- agreement was delayed until escalation that ations, the forces of the Fourth the ninth of February, and it might lead to the Division launched an attack on was agreed that all wanted per- collapse of the the town of Tafas on January sons will move outside Tafas reconciliation 24 and clashed with local fight- but remain in the Daraa gover- agreement if the ers with heavy weapons. This norate. clashes spread to was while the regime's war- other regions, and planes flew over the area for The tension in the Tafas and Russia was able to the first time since the end of Daraa western countryside establish its the military operations in Daraa shows that it was clear that the presence in the in the summer of 2018 but no Fourth Division was the main western airstrikes were reported. Mean- beneficiary of it. The Fourth Di- countryside as well. while, tension and clashes shift- vision was able to reach new ed to other areas in the western areas and establish checkpoints countryside of Daraa, in an at- inside the western countryside tempt by the local factions to and weaken the local factions pressure the regime forces to by forcing them to hand over stop the attack on Tafas. The their weapons. While Russia Central Reconciliation Commit- benefited by avoiding a military tee and the regime forces escalation that might lead to 3 Insecurity in Southern Syria: Tracking Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda (January – February 2021) the collapse of the reconciliation agreement Assassinations against civilian officials returned if the clashes spread to other regions, and after two chairmen of Jasim and Nahta town Russia was able to establish its presence in municipalities were assassinated, in addition the western countryside as well. Although to the member of the Central Committee of the local factions and the Central Reconcili- Daraa, but no party has claimed responsibility ation Committee were able to avoid the mil- for any assassination. itary operation and the destruction it carries, the loss of heavy weapons in the region will QUNEITRA weaken the factions in the future if the regime The Quneitra governorate witnessed an forces, especially the Fourth Division, try to escalation in assassinations and attacks expand and impose new conditions. against the regime forces in January. This The Daraa governorate witnessed 37 as- was due to the fragility of the security situation sassination attempts, including 16 deaths in and the regime forces' attempts to impose a January, where 6 former members of the new status quo in the region by provoking armed opposition who joined the regime the reconciliation agreement for 40 young. forces were killed, while 5 former opposition This left them with two options, either dis- members, who did not join any group after placement to northern Syria or arrest, which the reconciliation, were targeted, and two led local figures to reject regime demands officers in military security were assassinated. and to consider it a direct threat to the locals. Total Assassinations: 16 Figure-1: The targets of assassinations in Daraa Governorate based on the numbers from the Daraa network 24 4 policy brief 161 Suhail al-Ghazi The escalation is also connected to the recent tension in the towns of Kanaker and Sa’sa in the Damascus southwestern countryside where the locals have family ties to clans from Quneitra. Both towns witnessed regime forces' attempts to fully regain control over these areas and impose new conditions on civilians in the late 2020s. The regime forces, mainly the Fourth Division and the Military Security Branch in Sa`sa, are attempting to A view of houses destroyed after the civil war in expand in the Quneitra governorate to give Quneitra, Syria. cover for the entry of Iranian forces to enter into the province far from the eyes of the since Iranian militias are using money and Israeli army. These attempts also caused an drugs to lure young people in light of the increase in the intensity of confrontations in deteriorating economic situation and the high the southern region, as the locals feel the cost of living. imminent danger to their lives. This is espe- cially so for those who were among the ranks The assassinations returned to the Quneitra of the opposition forces in the past, especially governorate at the beginning of January, Total Assassinations: 8 Figure – 2: The targets of assassinations in Quneitra Governorate based on various local sources 5 Insecurity in Southern Syria: Tracking Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda (January – February 2021) A building destroyed in As Suweyda as a result of the conflict. when Lieutenant Muhammad Ahmad al- were wounded in a similar attack in Al-Baath Shamali, from the State Security Branch, was city on the same day.
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