The Power of Ethnicity?: the Geographic Limits to Modernist Theories of Intra-State Violence ERIC KAUFMANN Reader in Politics and Sociology, Birkbeck College, University of London; Religion Initiative/ISP Fellow, Belfer Center, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Box 134, 79 John F. Kennedy St., Cambridge, MA 02138
[email protected] ——————————————————————————————————————————— Abstract This paper mounts a critique of the dominant modernist paradigm in the comparative ethnic conflict literature. The modernist argument claims that ethnic identity is constructed in the modern era, either by instrumentalist elites, or by political institutions whose bureaucratic constructions give birth to new identities. Group boundary symbols and myths are considered invented and flexible. Territorial identities in premodern times are viewed as either exclusively local, for the mass of the population, or ‘universal’, for elites. Primordialists and ethnosymbolists have contested these arguments using historical and case evidence, but have shied away from large-scale datasets. This paper utilizes a number of contemporary datasets to advance a three-stage argument. First, it finds a significant relationship between ethnic diversity and three pre- modern variables: rough topography, religious fractionalization and world region. Modernist explanations for these patterns are possible, but are less convincing than ethnosymbolist accounts. Second, we draw on our own and others’ work to show that ethnic fractionalization (ELF) significantly predicts the incidence of civil conflict, but not its onset . We argue that this is because indigenous ethnic diversity is relatively static over time, but varies over space. Conflict onsets, by contrast, are more dependent on short-run changes over time than incidents, which better reflect spatially-grounded conditioning factors.