EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT Impact of the 2004 Belg Harvest and the GU Rain in the Pastoral Areas on Food Availability Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission Ethiopia August 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Executive Summary ...................................................................................... 4 Introduction ...................................................................................... 11 Part One: The Performance of the Belg Season and Food Prospects in 12 Crop Dependent Areas............................................................. 1.1 Tigray Region ..................................................................... 12 1.2 Amhara Region ................................................................... 14 1.3 Oromiya Region ................................................................. 17 1.4 Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region 20 (SNNPR) ............................................................................. Part Two: The Performance of the Main Rainy Season and Food 21 Prospects in Pastoral Areas .................................................... 2.1 Afar Region .................................................................... 23 2.2 Somali Region ................................................................ 26 2.3 Lowland Bale Zones(Oromiya Region.....……………. 29 2.4 Borena (Oromiya Region) .....………………………. 31 2.5 South Omo (SNNPR) 33 Annex 1: Affected Population and Food Requirement from August to December 2004 by Woreda .................................................... 35 11 Glossary of Local Names Belg - Short rains/season from February/March to June/July (National) Azmera - Rains from early march to early june (Tigrai) Tsedia - Rains from mid june to end of September (Tgrai) Birkads - Traditional deep water wells Chat - Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Dega - Highlands (altitude >2500meters) Deyr - Short rains from October to November (Somali) Ellas - Traditional deep water wells Gu - Main rains from February/March to June/July (SNRS) Hagaya - Short rains from October to November (Borena/Bale) Karma - Main rains from July/August to September/October (Afar) Kiremt - Main rains from July/August to September/October (National) Kolla - Lowlands (altitude <1500meters) Meher - Main harvest Sugum - Short rains from March to April (Afar) Woina Dega - Midlands (altitude 1500-2500meters) 12 Executive Summary Crop Areas Tigray Region In Southern Tigray Region onset of the Belg rains was almost on time, but there was no rain during the essential month of February. The dry spell persisted well into March in Raya Azebo, Ofla, Enda Mehoni and Alamata woredas. Although good amounts of rain were received in Southern Tigray in April, the long dry spell significantly shortened the growing period. Belg rains performed poorly and in most areas of Southern Tigray have been considered as a near total failure. Overall 2004 Belg crop production in the zone can be rated as poor, with area planted 77% and 29% lower than that of 2003 and 2002, respectively. Belg production in 2004 in Tigray is 45% and 28% lower than that of 2003 and 2002, respectively. On-going food aid distributions for the chronically vulnerable population, a good Meher production last season, relatively stable market conditions and other positive food security variables, mean that most of the affected population are expected to cope up the food shortage by themselves. However, given the poor performance of this year's Belg season, the fragile food security situation in the region could deteriorate rapidly. As a result of this an additional 15,000 people are identified as needing immediate relief assistance in Tigray, starting August through December 2004. Including the previous meher beneficiaries the total number of needy population who required relief assistance in the region from August to December 2004 is estimated to be 1,122,000. Amhara Region In most of the Belg producing areas of North Wollo and South Wollo in Amhara Region, the onset of rains were one to two months late, and was characterized as irregular, erratic and unevenly distributed, with early withdrawal. While onset in the other Belg growing areas of Amhara Region, namely North Shewa and Oromiya was considered normal. Dry spells were experienced in the month of February and in the beginning of March. The overall performance of the rains in North and South Wollo was worse than that of last year. The total area planted in 2004 in all four Belg zones of Amhara was 20% lower than what was planted in 2003. Production prospects of the zones except North Shoa have declined significantly, and for the four zones constitutes a 27% reduction in production compared to the 2003 Belg season. Deficits as big as 70% and 45% have been observed in North Wollo and South Wollo zones, respectively. In North and South Wollo, given the comparative declines in Belg prospects and poor livestock condition, both zones will require external assistance. The previous beneficiaries are 1,902, 000. This figure is expected to decline if the belg rains perform well. However, due to the poor performance of the belg season rains, these beneficiaries will require an extended duration of assistance up to December 2004. Currently, due to belg failure 15, 600 additional beneficiaries are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to 1,917,600 as of August to December 2004. 13 Oromiya Region In Oromiya Region, due to late onset, erratic distribution, inadequate amount and early cessation of rains, a significant reduction in production is expected from the Belg season crops in East and West Hararghe, Bale and some pocket areas of Arsi and North West Shewa zones. The performance of Belg rain was generally poor this year compared to the average in all Belg producing zones of Oromiya, namely Arsi, Bale, East Shoa, North-West Shoa, Borena, Guji, and East and West Hararghe. Except in North-West Shoa, onset of Belg season rains was late by two to three weeks in Arsi and Bale, and by three to four weeks in East Shoa, and East and West Hararghe zones. Distribution of rain was also erratic, with dry spells delaying the planting time of Belg crops. The dry spell extended for six to seven weeks in most parts of Bale, Arsi, Borena, Guji West and East Hararghe, and East Shoa. The total area covered with Belg crops is the same as last year in Borena and Guji zones. In Bale and Arsi zones, the planted area slightly exceeds that of last year. However, there is a reduction of Belg area coverage this year in North-West Shoa by 28%, and in West and East Hararghe by 21% and 15%, respectively. In general, with exception of Arsi zone where this year production is expected to be higher than last year by 22%, the prospect of Belg production is unsatisfactory in all other zones. The performance of cash crops such as chat, coffee and vegetables was also unsatisfactory due to unfavourable climatic conditions in East and West Hararghe, East Shoa, Arsi and North-West Shoa zones. The previous beneficiaries are 1,494,700. These beneficiaries still will require an extended duration of assistance up to December 2004. Currently, due to failure of the belg rains 70,704 additional beneficiary are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to 1565404 as of August to December 2004. SNNPR In Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR), erratic Belg rainfall has meant that the season's crop performance was very poor with the estimated yield losses ranging from 50- 90 % for major Belg crops such as maize, sorghum and haricot beans. Maize, the staple food crop of the region has been the most affected. Most important cash sources of the region such as coffee and pepper were also expected to perform very poor. Currently, in many areas, long cycle crops, that are usually expected to be available for green harvest starting the first week of August, are reported totally damaged. While the onset of Belg rains were normal in most areas, from the first week of May up to the first week of July a prolonged dry spell prevailed throughout the zones. Production loss in the Gamo Gofa zone is estimated to range between 50-90%. In Hadiya zone, it was reported that out of the areas planted in the Belg season, about 34% was severely damaged by the poor weather conditions. Crop production loss from the Belg harvest in Wolayita is estimated to range between 55-60%. Due to the very poor Belg production prospect, a serious food insecurity situation is expected in Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Hadiya, Konso and Derashe special woredas and some parts of Kembata Tembaro. Moreover, signs of malnutrition have been reported in Meskan and Mareko woredas of 14 Guraghe and Awassa Zuria woreda of Sidama zones, and nutritional status elsewhere is anticipated to deteriorate very soon if food aid is not continued. Immediate food intervention is needed where there is a high decline of Belg crop production. The previous beneficiaries are 857,400. Due to the poor performance of the season, these beneficiaries still will require an extended duration of assistance up to December 2004. Currently, due to belg failure 522,900 (including South Omo) additional beneficiaries are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to 1,380,300 , as of August to December 2004. Pastoral Areas Somali Region The March/May Gu rains