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DEFENSE PROPULSION 30 | SOCOM reveals deployment of 48 | MagniX and AeroTEC electrify FEATURES Slovenian-made UAS workhorse Caravan 24 | Certification Changes 31 | DARPA reduces risk ahead of CONNECTED AEROSPACE Scrutiny of the Boeing 777X Blackjack LEO constellation demo 50 U.S agencies petition FCC over signals more changes to the | Ligado license order FAA’s certification process 32 | Autonomous technology prompts ethical calling for German FCAS 28 | SOAR Points SPACE Fleet strategy for an elite 36 | USAF expands adversary air 54 | Abrupt departure of spaceflight U.S. aviation unit depends services to include more EW chief Loverro shakes NASA on Army decisions 38 | 1,000 engines up for grabs due to 58 | From the sidelines, Boeing 34 | Reaching Out U.S. Air Force move regroups and cheers on SpaceX Development of more complex 39 | U.S. warns Russian jets could turn 60 | All signs point to first Firefly air-to-air missiles is informing Libyan war into regional threat the size of fighter fleets Alpha Test launch in September 40 | How the U.S. Open Skies exit could 62 | Virgin Orbit closes in on cause 52 | Showtime for SpaceX undermine arms control A look at milestones on of LauncherOne demo loss SpaceX’s path to launching AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT 63 | NASA lays out policy blueprint for NASA astronauts to the ISS 42 Istanbul Airport project induces | international Moon exploration multiplex route network UNMANNED AVIATION FAST FIVE COVID-19 CRISIS 44 | Medical drone flights demonstrate 55 | With SpaceX CEO Elon Musk in 18 | Massive state support gives confidence in BVLOS operations the runup to Crew Dragon launch selected airlines a lifeline URBAN AIR MOBILITY VIEWPOINT 22 | Air navigation service providers 46 | Walmart executive backs eVTOL 66 | Think defense is unscathed by ponder future after the pandemic startup Archer COVID-19? Think again. 23 | OEMs increase efforts to boost ON THE COVER confidence in air travel As the U.S. Army moves forward with two new high-speed rotorcraft acquisition programs, its most 26 | Coronavirus is a crucible for elite aviators see a once-in-a-generation opportunity to replace their hand-me-down fleet, but it will not inflight connectivity businesses be easy getting there. Defense Editor Steve Trimble’s report begins on page 28. U.S. Army photo. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 27 | COVID-19 infects defense industry with F-35 production slowdown DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing Market Brieﬁ ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] market, identify opportunities and Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Enabling the Extraordinary To Fly To Power To Live Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 EXTREME 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing Market Brieﬁ ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Around the globe, military system engineers have turned Cape Canaveral Automatic ammunition to Meggitt to help them meet their demanding lethality These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago and reliability requirements for ammunition storage and briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] handling for extreme handling systems in all manner of combat platforms executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt – rotary and fixed-wing aircraft and ground combat Jens Flottau [email protected] military environments market, identify opportunities and Houston vehicles. drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Meggitt has developed and fielded state-of-the-art Los Angeles lethality solutions for the most challenging operational Guy Norris [email protected] LEARN MORE: environments across the spectrum of conventional aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] ammunition calibers from 25mm to 155mm including our Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] new 50mm as well as advanced ammunition in the form Paris of case telescoped and electromagnetic railgun rounds. Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Meggitt delivers unprecedented reliability to the mission Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] critical weapon systems of today and tomorrow. Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected] Tel: +1 949 465 7700 President, Aviation Week Network E-mail: [email protected] Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon www.meggittdefense.com

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACKFEEDBACK

space transportation systems. Let’s not THE NEXT SWAN screw it up with old-fashioned thought. Today the aerospace industry is reeling from the impact of COVID-19, as docu- James R. French, Laguna Woods, mented in the compendium of data in California AW&ST and via your webinars associated with COVID-19 and its effects on BAD JUJU? aviation business and the supply chain. Too bad the folks at the UK’s Defense The presence of disease in the supply BLUE ORIGIN Science and Technology Laboratory chain and manufacturing centers fits FORWARD-LOOKING DESIGN and the U.S. Air Force Research Labo- the definition of a black swan event, an Randy McDonnell’s letter “Revising ratory threw out the acronym of their event that was predictable but whose Rockets” (May 4-17, p. 5) presents a mix proposed new hypersonic round and scope of impact was viewed as remote of good ideas and misunderstanding. simply gave it the unfortunate name and so was not adequately addressed. My comments about it below are in- “Thresher” (April 6-19, p. 14). A little We are now in the midst of recognizing formed by my work as the government research reveals the USS Thresher that the impact, if not the disease itself, chief engineer on the DC-X technol- (SSN-593) was a watershed loss for the will likely last several years. ogy demonstrator (for the Strategic U.S. Navy as the first nuclear subma- Now imagine a compounding event, Defense Initiative Organization) and as rine to be lost at sea, on April 10, 1963, a cyberbreach that manipulates our a consultant to NASA on the DC-XA. 220 mi. off Boston in 8,400 ft of water. collective understanding of the state First, I will address the idea of elim- There may be some bad juju there. of the supply chain or software in inating landing gear. The descending the products we deliver. The actual vehicle has been investigated in some Richard L. Hackmeister, Fort Lauderdale, state of the supply chain or software depth in the years since the DC-XA, Florida does not need to be altered to have an and while it could be made to work, effect; merely altering the perception it really emerges as an impractical REASONABLE, NOT RADICAL of them would affect projected parts solution. The issues would take too I strongly disagree with letter writer availability, production rates, financial long to discuss here, but in the end, it is Bob Seelos’ position in “The Middle projections and stock prices, resulting not a good idea. Using the rocket body Seat” (April 6-19, p. 6) that airlines in a skewed picture of the nation’s as a decelerator is basically what most permanently stop seating passengers ability to deliver operational defense concepts use, whether it rotates or in middle seats and entire rows be and aerospace capabilities. not. Multiple rebounds off the atmo- removed. Such radical measures are Similarly, a lack of confidence in the sphere is essentially the skip reentry entirely unnecessary. integrity of the software used to oper- technique, the concept of which goes Is it reasonable to place the threat ate our military and industrial systems back to Eugen Sanger. It has been used of spreading COVID-19 or other future would have a parallel impact on both extensively on many missions such as pathogens onto the airlines? Is it rea- national defense and financial markets. Zond, Apollo, etc. It is more useful for sonable to bankrupt airlines by reduc- Instilling confidence in the integri- entry range extension than reducing ing passenger load factors to unprofit- ty of critical data and software used heating, but it does help to some extent. able and unsustainable levels? Is it wise in supply chains and operational The remaining ideas are very good to encourage government financial aerospace systems is solvable. The and deserve more attention. Keeping bailouts of airlines with the very real aerospace community has the techni- the crew capsule integrated with the result of full or partial government cal skills to mitigate the impact of a rocket to avoid excessive refurbish- ownership? I say “no” to all the above. catastrophic black swan event so that ment and checkout activity between Instead, how about we adopt these it is just another swan in the flock of flights is essential to achieving rapid policies: Encourage the public to wear routine challenges. turnaround and minimizing operating masks voluntarily in public any time cost. When an airliner flying from New they are sick, as numerous countries David E. Hamilton, Jr., Alexandria, York to Los Angeles arrives, you don’t have done in Asia for decades; require, Virginia separate the passenger cabin and land or at least encourage, airline passengers it by parachute. It makes no more to wear masks aboard flights, and re- sense for a space transport than it does quire the airlines to provide them upon CORRECTION for an atmospheric transport. request at the terminal before boarding. “Army Pushes Ahead With Black Using aerodynamic control surfaces Reasonable solutions are better for Hawk Replacement” (March 23-April 5, to control the vehicle during entry everyone than radical solutions. p. 43) should have stated that the and landing is rational and has been difference between project agreement well-demonstrated by SpaceX. Kevin A. Capps, Corona del Mar, awards to the Sikorsky-Boeing and Rapid separation of the crew cap- California Bell teams is $13 million. sule from the rocket when the situation demands it is also essential. Even in that emergency case, there are better Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, answers to achieve a safe landing than 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: parachutes (the usual approach). We [email protected]. Letters may be edited for length and clarity; stand on the verge of developing real a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACKFEEDBACK

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE

Francois Lassale has been named act- Collier Trophy, an Iven C. Kincheloe Award and a Society ing CEO of HeliOffshore. He succeeds of Experimental Test Pilots’ James H. Doolittle Award. Gretchen Haskins, who will serve on Tim Williams has joined Vertical the board. Lassale was chief operating Aerospace as chief engineer. He was a officer. chief engineer at Rolls-Royce. York Space Systems has named Barry Trine Aerospace has hired Phuong Ta Behnken vice president of engineering. as engineering manager. Phuong was His career in space-systems devel- certification lead at United Technologies opment includes having been program director of the and vice chair of the SAE International National Recon naissance Office during his tenure in the Aviation seat committee. She has served Air Force, a Raytheon Technologies technical fellowship on FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee work- and co-founder of driverless car company AEye Inc. ing groups and is a structure and flammability designated Universal Avionics has promoted Gil Rivnai to vice pres- engineering representative. ident of engineering from head of engineering and Marc The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) has hired Bouliane to vice president of business development, mar- Tim Simon as vice president of finance and revenue keting and services from vice president of business devel- develop ment. MAC owns and operates Minneapolis- opment. Rivnal succeeds Dan Reida, who has left. St. Paul International and six general aviation airports in Zachary Dunn has been hired as vice president of fac- the Twin Cities area. tory development for Relativity Space. Dunn was SpaceX The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority has pro- senior vice president of production and launch moted Richard Golinowski to vice president of operations Ampaire has hired Doug Shane as general manager for Reagan National and Dulles International airports. He of aviation, with a focus on development of sustainable has been with the Airports Authority for electric-powered air transport. An engineer and test 25 years. pilot, Shane has overseen high-tech aerospace ventures The White House has nominated for- for Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic. He also won mer U.S. Congressman John A. Culberson (with Burt Rutan and others, for SpaceShipOne) the 2004 to serve on the National Space Council Users’ Advisory Group. LinQuest Corp., a space systems technology provider for U.S. defense and intelligence, has appointed Martin Faga to its board. Faga was president and CEO of MITRE Corp. and has served on the Ensuring boards of Alliant, Orbital ATK, DigitalGlobe and GeoEye. He also served as National Reconnaissance Office director, safety and performance assistant secretary of the Air Force for space and as staff for today and tomorrow for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Triumph Group has elected Richard Goglia to its board and its audit and finance committees. He had been trea- surer at Raytheon, which in April merged with United Technologies’ aerospace and defense business to become Raytheon Technologies. Goglia previously was senior vice president at GE Capital. Satellite connectivity provider SES has elected Frank Esser board chairman. Paul Jarossy has been rehired as vice president of sales and marketing at Vulcan Spring and Manufacturing. He was Vulcan sales and marketing director in 2010-12 and held business development roles at Kaman Industrial With light weight, small volume, Technologies and FlexLink Systems, among others. outstanding environmental robust- Universal Avionics has hired and ness and unmatched performance John Berizzi John as South-Central and Southwest U.S. regional LITEF’s certified Inertial Systems Wasmund deliver value to the operators of all sales managers, respectively. Berizzi worked for Stevens types of civil and military aircraft. Aviation and Boca Aircraft Maintenance, overseeing compliance installations and navigation upgrades. Wasmund worked at Hawker Beechcraft and Constant Aviation. c Inertial Systems made by To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no PDFs) and photos to: whoswhere@aviationweek.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE

Francois Lassale has been named act- Collier Trophy, an Iven C. Kincheloe Award and a Society ing CEO of HeliOffshore. He succeeds of Experimental Test Pilots’ James H. Doolittle Award. Gretchen Haskins, who will serve on Tim Williams has joined Vertical the board. Lassale was chief operating Aerospace as chief engineer. He was a officer. chief engineer at Rolls-Royce. York Space Systems has named Barry Trine Aerospace has hired Phuong Ta 第⼗三届 Behnken vice president of engineering. as engineering manager. Phuong was His career in space-systems devel- certification lead at United Technologies opment includes having been program director of the and vice chair of the SAE International National Recon naissance Office during his tenure in the Aviation seat committee. She has served Air Force, a Raytheon Technologies technical fellowship on FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee work- and co-founder of driverless car company AEye Inc. ing groups and is a structure and flammability designated The 13th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition Universal Avionics has promoted Gil Rivnai to vice pres- engineering representative. ident of engineering from head of engineering and Marc The Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC) has hired Bouliane to vice president of business development, mar- Tim Simon as vice president of finance and revenue keting and services from vice president of business devel- develop ment. MAC owns and operates Minneapolis- opment. Rivnal succeeds Dan Reida, who has left. St. Paul International and six general aviation airports in Zachary Dunn has been hired as vice president of fac- the Twin Cities area. tory development for Relativity Space. Dunn was SpaceX The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority has pro- senior vice president of production and launch moted Richard Golinowski to vice president of operations Ampaire has hired Doug Shane as general manager for Reagan National and Dulles International airports. He of aviation, with a focus on development of sustainable has been with the Airports Authority for electric-powered air transport. An engineer and test 25 years. pilot, Shane has overseen high-tech aerospace ventures The White House has nominated for- for Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic. He also won mer U.S. Congressman John A. Culberson (with Burt Rutan and others, for SpaceShipOne) the 2004 to serve on the National Space Council Users’ Advisory Group. LinQuest Corp., a space systems technology provider for U.S. defense and intelligence, has appointed Martin Faga to its board. Faga was president and CEO of MITRE Corp. and has served on the Ensuring boards of Alliant, Orbital ATK, DigitalGlobe and GeoEye. He also served as National Reconnaissance Office director, safety and performance assistant secretary of the Air Force for space and as staff for today and tomorrow for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Triumph Group has elected Richard Goglia to its board and its audit and finance committees. He had been trea- surer at Raytheon, which in April merged with United Technologies’ aerospace and defense business to become Raytheon Technologies. Goglia previously was senior vice president at GE Capital. Satellite connectivity provider SES has elected Frank Esser board chairman. Paul Jarossy has been rehired as vice president of sales and marketing at Vulcan Spring and Manufacturing. He was Vulcan sales and marketing director in 2010-12 and held business development roles at Kaman Industrial With light weight, small volume, Technologies and FlexLink Systems, among others. outstanding environmental robust- Universal Avionics has hired and ness and unmatched performance John Berizzi John as South-Central and Southwest U.S. regional LITEF’s certified Inertial Systems Wasmund deliver value to the operators of all sales managers, respectively. Berizzi worked for Stevens types of civil and military aircraft. Aviation and Boca Aircraft Maintenance, overseeing compliance installations and navigation upgrades. Wasmund worked at Hawker Beechcraft and Constant Aviation. c Inertial Systems made by To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no PDFs) and photos to: whoswhere@aviationweek.

For more information on our products, please contact [email protected] com For additional information on companies and individuals listed in Northrop Grumman LITEF GmbH, Loerracher Strasse 18, 79115 Freiburg, Germany this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network at EXHIBITION TRADE VISITOR & AIRCRAFT EXHIBITION AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone U.S.: Mr. Jimmy Sum Mr. Aaron Huang +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. Tel:+86-756-337-6304 Tel:+86-756-337-6111 WWW.AIRSHOW.COM.CN Email:[email protected] Email: [email protected]

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST

MC-21 narrowbody commercial airliner Commercial aviation groups and manu- TAKE beyond 2020. facturers planned to file seven petitions For the latest, go to challenging the Federal Communica- AVIATIONWEEK.COM Airlines globally have so far received tions Commission’s decision to grant more than $123 billion in government aid, Ligado Networks access to spectrum but IATA warns the support is spread un- near GPS (page 50). evenly leading to massive market distor- tion in favor of richer economies (page 18). DEFENSE The U.S. Air Force’s top general in Africa The European Union Aviation Safety Command warned on May 26 that Rus- Agency has set out guidelines for fly- sia’s next move in Libya could be to de- ing in the COVID-19 era that include a ploy permanent, long-range air defense requirement for passengers and crew systems (page 39). to wear face masks at all times. TEXTRON AVIATION Leidos is to design and demonstrate the GENERAL AVIATION Changing the rules of the ICAO Carbon autonomy platform that will be integrat- Textron Aviation’s prototype Cessna Offsetting and Reduction Scheme to ed into and control the U.S. Air Force’s Model 408 SkyCourier twin-turboprop reflect the impact of COVID-19 would future family of Skyborg unmanned air- utlity aircraft made its 2-hr. 15-min. first risk undermining the entire program, craft systems. flight on May 17 from Wichita. says the Environmental Defense Fund lobbying group. The UK has begun firing trials of Thales’ Piper Aircraft has received FAA type cer- Lightweight Multirole Missile from the tification for its M600/SLS single- engine Air France has ended Airbus A380 oper- Leonardo AW159 Wildcat naval heli- turboprop featuring Garmin Internation- ations, bringing forward an existing plan copter, ahead of the first deployment of al’s emergency Autoland system. to phase out the superjumbo aircraft fol- the HMS Queen Elizabeth carrier task lowing the coronavirus outbreak. group in 2021.

VIEW FROM WASHINGTON

More Eyes on Those Troublesome Tankers What a troubled program already in the congressional crosshairs does not want is more scrutiny from lawmakers. But that is where MAGNIX Boeing’s KC-46A tanker for the U.S. Air Force finds itself. MagniX and AeroTEC flew a Cessna 208B Concerns about deficient and delayed KC-46As has spread Caravan converted to all-electric propulsion for the first time on May 28 from beyond the Senate’s defense-focused committees. Republican Moses Lake, Washington (page 48). and Democratic members of a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs COMMERCIAL AVIATION Previously profitable Latin American air- have now called for an investigation into the program by the line group LATAM Airlines became the Government Accountability Office (GAO). latest high-profile victim of the COVID-19 The committee members are seeking an assessment on the crisis when it filed for Chapter 11 proceedings on May 26 in the U.S. (page 18). status of Boeing’s planned fixes for critical deficiencies in the tanker, steps taken by U.S. Transportation Command to mitigate The German government faces Euro- the operational effects caused by the delays and “considerations pean Commission opposition to a €9 billion ($10 billion) rescue package for the Air Force is receiving because of the delays,” the senators Lufthansa that would keep the airline wrote. out of insolvency while returning it as The KC-46 program has been a key focus of the GAO’s de - the largest shareholder with a 20% stake. fense team since Boeing won the contract in 2011. The inves- Mitsubishi Aircraft is mothballing its tigative arm of Congress has produced reports on the KC-46A SpaceJet flight-testing operation in the annually since 2012 at the request of the Armed Services Com- U.S., consolidating operations in Nagoya, Japan, and closing all offices elsewhere. mittees of the Senate and House of Representatives. The Air Force has accepted 30 KC-46As from Boeing, but A Russian government official has Transportation Command refuses to use them until Boeing confirmed that COVID-19 restrictions have delayed certification of the Irkut corrects the deficiencies.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST

MC-21 narrowbody commercial airliner Commercial aviation groups and manu- NATO and European nations expressed COVID-19 to Impact Global Defense Procurement TAKE beyond 2020. facturers planned to file seven petitions regret at the decision from the admin- challenging the Federal Communica- istration of President Donald Trump 450 20 For the latest, go to AVIATIONWEEK.COM Airlines globally have so far received tions Commission’s decision to grant to exit the Open Skies Treaty but said 400 more than $123 billion in government aid, Ligado Networks access to spectrum they share U.S. concerns about incon- 15 but IATA warns the support is spread un- near GPS (page 50). sistent flight restrictions imposed by 50 evenly leading to massive market distor- Moscow (page 40). 10 tion in favor of richer economies (page 18). DEFENSE 00

The U.S. Air Force’s top general in Africa A document published by the Italian 5 The European Union Aviation Safety Command warned on May 26 that Rus- Senate appears to confirm the €871 mil- 250 Agency has set out guidelines for fly- sia’s next move in Libya could be to de- lion ($965 million) sale of 24 Leonardo 200 ing in the COVID-19 era that include a ploy permanent, long-range air defense AW149 and eight AW189 twin- engine 0 requirement for passengers and crew systems (page 39). transport helicopters to Egypt. U.. $ 150 -5 to wear face masks at all times. TEXTRON AVIATION Leidos is to design and demonstrate the The U.S. Tactical Boost Glide and the 100 GENERAL AVIATION Changing the rules of the ICAO Carbon autonomy platform that will be integrat- Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon AA (except China) -10 prototype Cessna Offsetting and Reduction Scheme to ed into and control the U.S. Air Force’s Concept hypersonic missile programs 50 Textron Aviation’s Model 408 SkyCourier twin-turboprop reflect the impact of COVID-19 would future family of Skyborg unmanned air- have fallen months behind schedule, 0 -15 utlity aircraft made its 2-hr. 15-min. first risk undermining the entire program, craft systems. says the head of the Pentagon’s re - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 flight on May 17 from Wichita. says the Environmental Defense Fund search and engineering branch. *Dollar values and growth adjusted for inﬂation lobbying group. The UK has begun firing trials of Thales’ Source: Craig Caffrey, Senior Aerospace Industry Analyst, Aviation Week Network Piper Aircraft has received FAA type cer- Lightweight Multirole Missile from the Lockheed Martin now expects to de- tification for its M600/SLS single- engine Air France has ended Airbus A380 oper- Leonardo AW159 Wildcat naval heli- liver 18-24 fewer F-35s in 2020 than Procurement and R&D will lead global defense spending cuts in the aftermath of turboprop featuring Garmin Internation- ations, bringing forward an existing plan copter, ahead of the first deployment of the program’s 141-aircraft goal due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, forecasts Craig Caffrey, senior aerospace industry al’s emergency Autoland system. to phase out the superjumbo aircraft fol- the HMS Queen Elizabeth carrier task supply chain disruptions caused by the analyst with the Aviation Week Network. Cuts will be disproportionately concentrated lowing the coronavirus outbreak. group in 2021. novel coronavirus pandemic (page 27). in key domestic and export markets of Western defense suppliers.

Saab has signed a 1.55 billion krona To request more information about Aviation Week’s Military Fleet Discovery VIEW FROM WASHINGTON ($160 million) contract with an undis- Database, go to pgs.aviationweek.com/FleetDataServices closed customer for its Erieye radar- equipped airborne early warning Saab More Eyes on Those Troublesome Tankers 2000. 75 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK What a troubled program already in the congressional crosshairs SPACE With memories of the ecstatic V-E Day cele- does not want is more scrutiny from lawmakers. But that is where NASA and SpaceX retargeted launch of brations still fresh, our June 1, 1945, edition MAGNIX Boeing’s KC-46A tanker for the U.S. Air Force finds itself. the crewed Demo-2 flight test for May reflected on key challenges that lay ahead for MagniX and AeroTEC flew a Cessna 208B Concerns about deficient and delayed KC-46As has spread 30 after weather at Kennedy Space the U.S. and the aviation industry. A costly Caravan converted to all-electric pro- Center prompted a scrub 16 min. before war in Europe had just been won, but the beyond the Senate’s defense-focused committees. Republican pulsion for the first time on May 28 from a liftoff attempt on May 27 (page 52). fight in the Pacific was still raging, with the Moses Lake, Washington (page 48). and Democratic members of a subcommittee of the Senate bloody Battle of Okinawa still undecided. British satellite launcher firm Skyrora Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Meanwhile, a new American foe already ap- COMMERCIAL AVIATION has undertaken a full static fire test of Previously profitable Latin American air- have now called for an investigation into the program by the its Skylark L rocket, the first UK test peared to be rising in the Soviet Union—still line group LATAM Airlines became the Government Accountability Office (GAO). of this scale since the Black Arrow pro- officially a U.S. ally. latest high-profile victim of the COVID-19 The committee members are seeking an assessment on the gram 50 years ago. The magazine’s coverage included a tech- crisis when it filed for Chapter 11 pro- nical review of a startling new form of aircraft status of Boeing’s planned fixes for critical deficiencies in the ceedings on May 26 in the U.S. (page 18). NASA has renamed its threatened propulsion called a turbojet, and an advertise- tanker, steps taken by U.S. Transportation Command to mitigate Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope ment featuring Sikorsky’s latest rotary-wing The German government faces Euro- the operational effects caused by the delays and “considerations the Nancy Grace Roman Space Tele- pean Commission opposition to a €9 scope in honor of the pioneering wom- marvel, the R-6, adorned the cover. But the billion ($10 billion) rescue package for the Air Force is receiving because of the delays,” the senators an astronomer. post-V-E Day reality was visible, too, with a cov- Lufthansa that would keep the airline wrote. er appeal to buy war bonds signed by all seven out of insolvency while returning it as The KC-46 program has been a key focus of the GAO’s de - High-speed propulsion developer five-star flag officers: Gens. George Marshall, Leslie Neville urged readers not to forget the largest shareholder with a 20% stake. Reaction Engines has been awarded Douglas MacArthur, Dwight Eisenhower and the lessons of recent defeats in battle. “It fense team since Boeing won the contract in 2011. The inves- a Euro pean Space Agency study con- Hap Arnold joined by Adms. William Leahy, is easy for us, as survivors of this phase of Mitsubishi Aircraft is mothballing its tigative arm of Congress has produced reports on the KC-46A tract for a hypersonic flying testbed for Ernest King and Chester Nimitz. the war, to don our own Superman cloaks SpaceJet flight-testing operation in the annually since 2012 at the request of the Armed Services Com- its Sabre air-breathing rocket engine. U.S., consolidating operations in Nagoya, Publisher Harold McGraw, Jr. appealed for and assume that we are unconquerable,” he Japan, and closing all offices elsewhere. mittees of the Senate and House of Representatives. A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rock- a repairing of relations with Moscow, lest the warned. “We must not relinquish our dom- The Air Force has accepted 30 KC-46As from Boeing, but et lifted off from Cape Canaveral AFS “defeat of Japan merely mark the end of the inant air power until we are perfectly sure A Russian government official has Transportation Command refuses to use them until Boeing on May 17 to deliver a U.S. Air Force Second in a series of World Wars.” And Editor that it is safe to do so.” confirmed that COVID-19 restrictions X-37B mini-shuttle into orbit for a have delayed certification of the Irkut corrects the deficiencies. sixth mission. c Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 11 COMMENTARY UP FRONT REMZI SEKER

WITH THE EXPANSION ACROSS Tackling cybersafety challenges requires a coordinat- the aviation industry of connectivity and ed, comprehensive, global effort. Multiple agencies are computing services, cybersecurity has be- cooperating to establish much-needed standards. For come ever more important. Connecting people, processes example, the U.S. FAA and the European Union Avia- and assets creates new vulnerabilities and multiple attack tion Safety Agency have been working with the RTCA points—from flight-critical avionics to passenger inflight and the European Organization for Civil Aviation Equip- entertainment networks and airline backend operations. ment to set harmonized cybersecurity standards. Information about systems, protocols and technologies Efforts to secure the aviation ecosystem also in- such as software-defined radio are now readily available clude dedicated committees such as the FAA’s Aviation well beyond the industry. Rulemaking Advisory Demand for greater ef- Committee Aircraft Sys- ficiency meanwhile con- tem Information Security/ tinues to increase con- Aviation’s Other Protection working group. nectivity and accelerate Similarly, the Aerospace computerization within Problem Industries Association aviation infrastructure, It is time to accelerate cybersecurity has established the Civil including aircraft. Aviation Cybersecurity Fortunately, ongoing Subcommittee. efforts to protect -air In the U.S., the Aviation craft, airlines and passen- Cyber Initiative (ACI) is gers from cybersecurity led by the Defense De- threats have been largely partment, Department of unaffected by the global Homeland Security and pandemic, suggesting an FAA. The ACI includes opportunity for the indus- experts representing gov- try to ramp up cybersafe- ernment, defense, industry ty programs and training and academia who collab- amid the current slow- orate to tackle aviation down. The comprehen- cybersecurity threats. sive, coordinated nature The Aviation Information of aviation cybersecurity Sharing and Analysis Cen- initiatives means com- ter shares global threat in-

mittees have long carried CHAINARONG PRASERTTHAI/GETTY IMAGES telligence among aviation out their work primarily companies. through virtual meetings, so those efforts are able to Globally, the International Civil Aviation Organization continue in full swing. With slowdowns taking place in (ICAO) leads this work. Its Trust Framework Study other areas, the industry can address cybersafety at a Group (TFSG) includes experts from the FAA, EASA, more rapid pace. commercial industry and academia and has established The aviation industry and its stakeholders have been three important working groups. working hard to tackle cybersecurity challenges com- Academic institutions play a critical role in ad- prehensively—from the supply chain and the mainte- vancing cybersecurity research and training, too. nance of aircraft to operations. Such efforts remain Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, for example, essential so that cyberthreats affecting safety can be develops engineering solutions and provides degree, mitigated before they materialize, whether that hap- certification and training programs in aviation cyb- pens during flight through physical access to a bus, by sersecurity. Faculty researchers contribute expertise interfering with equipment through Wi-Fi or remotely to cyberdefense and preparedness efforts by serving disrupting operations. on national and international committees and working The need to weigh cyberthreats according to their groups and by organizing the annual Aero-Cybersecu- safety impact, a practice referred to as “cybersafety,” rity Symposium. requires a different perspective than that of IT cyber- Aviation’s impeccable safety culture positions it security. Cybersafety differs from traditional IT cyber- well to combat and defeat cybersafety risks. In the security because of the need for safety certification, years ahead, the industry will need to invest in ex- which relies on guaranteeing a system’s behavior, or panded education and training as well as research to “determinism.” This unique characteristic of aviation secure high-assurance systems that can be updated cybersafety means that solutions widely used across with minimal impact on certification. c traditional computing systems may pose serious certification challenges. Imagine rolling out security patches Remzi Seker is the associate provost for research at Embry-Riddle for every avionics component on a commercial aircraft. Aeronautical University.

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS REMZI SEKER MICHAEL BRUNO

WITH THE EXPANSION ACROSS Tackling cybersafety challenges requires a coordinat- IF YOU LIKE THE CADRE OF BIG supply closer to home, both for reliability and geopolit- the aviation industry of connectivity and ed, comprehensive, global effort. Multiple agencies are aerospace and defense companies now, ical reasons. Suppliers overseas once were revered for computing services, cybersecurity has be- cooperating to establish much-needed standards. For you are going to love them later. Among their low-cost footprint, but suddenly they are seen as come ever more important. Connecting people, processes example, the U.S. FAA and the European Union Avia- the major trends the novel coronavirus vulnerable to pandemics, economic stress and global and assets creates new vulnerabilities and multiple attack tion Safety Agency have been working with the RTCA is expected to catalyze within aerospace and defense trade wars. In turn, consultants expect industry lead- points—from flight-critical avionics to passenger inflight and the European Organization for Civil Aviation Equip- (A&D) manufacturing is that the big will get bigger by ers to take another look at favoring local regions. entertainment networks and airline backend operations. ment to set harmonized cybersecurity standards. gobbling up others or taking back more work. Even in the defense realm, which for now is consid- Information about systems, protocols and technologies Efforts to secure the aviation ecosystem also in- In the next few years, vertical integration should ered safer during this downturn, there is talk of larger such as software-defined radio are now readily available clude dedicated committees such as the FAA’s Aviation pick up momentum, according to several executives firms becoming even more powerful. “Large pure-plays well beyond the industry. Rulemaking Advisory and consultants. After decades of OEMs, primes and should come through the pandemic relatively un- Demand for greater ef- Committee Aircraft Sys- scathed but may be looking at lower spending growth ficiency meanwhile con- tem Information Security/ outlooks,” Capital Alpha Partners Managing Director tinues to increase con- Aviation’s Other Protection working group. Top-Heavy Byron Callan noted May 13. “Mergers and acquisitions nectivity and accelerate Problem Similarly, the Aerospace As manufacturing reshapes may thus be more important in delivering growth— computerization within Industries Association after the pandemic, size will matter even though it’s not organic growth—in 2021-25.” aviation infrastructure, It is time to accelerate cybersecurity has established the Civil So where to look for vertical integration and con- including aircraft. Aviation Cybersecurity top-tier companies outsourcing major work on their solidation from the top? Clues are already emerging, Fortunately, ongoing Subcommittee. programs, many see the pendulum swinging back to efforts to protect -air In the U.S., the Aviation bringing more of it in-house. craft, airlines and passen- Cyber Initiative (ACI) is “We’ve already seen signs of more vertical inte- INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION gers from cybersecurity led by the Defense De- gration coming through the industry and potentially Two Possible Evolutions threats have been largely partment, Department of where some of that could be accelerated as we work unaffected by the global Homeland Security and through the crisis,” says one advisor. pandemic, suggesting an FAA. The ACI includes Boeing started this a few years ago as it in- OEM OEM opportunity for the indus- experts representing gov- sourced avionics and other niche segments. Major try to ramp up cybersafe- ernment, defense, industry consolidation picked up last year with the mergers Tier 1 Tier 1 ty programs and training and academia who collab- of Raytheon and Tier 2 Tier 2 amid the current slow- orate to tackle aviation United Technolo- As smaller suppliers fall away, down. The comprehen- cybersecurity threats. gies Corp. and L3 who will pick up the pieces? Tier 3 Tier 3 sive, coordinated nature The Aviation Information Technologies and The left example shows Tier 1 of aviation cybersecurity Sharing and Analysis Cen- Harris Corp. Now, consolidation; the right, Tier 2-3. Tier 4 Tier 4 initiatives means com- ter shares global threat in- whether it be pro- Source: Roland Berger mittees have long carried CHAINARONG PRASERTTHAI/GETTY IMAGES telligence among aviation tecting profits or securing supply, the reasons to out their work primarily companies. own more of the work are burgeoning as industry is according to advisor presentations. First, look at through virtual meetings, so those efforts are able to Globally, the International Civil Aviation Organization refashioned in the COVID-19 crisis. niches where top suppliers already are prevalent—en- continue in full swing. With slowdowns taking place in (ICAO) leads this work. Its Trust Framework Study For starters, aerospace suppliers are facing dimin- vironmental and flight-control systems, landing gear, other areas, the industry can address cybersafety at a Group (TFSG) includes experts from the FAA, EASA, ished economies of scale but a greater share of fixed- electrical power and interiors—and others where they more rapid pace. commercial industry and academia and has established cost in production, with a likely loss in profitability and are not there yet, including maintenance, repair and The aviation industry and its stakeholders have been three important working groups. competitiveness, say Roland Berger advisors Robert overhaul, logistics, aerostructures and engines. working hard to tackle cybersecurity challenges com- Academic institutions play a critical role in ad- Thomson and Manfred Hader. So-called organic top-line Next, look at the supply base from the perspective prehensively—from the supply chain and the mainte- vancing cybersecurity research and training, too. increases, through insourcing and acquisition of addi- of a top supplier. Who is distressed or drawing down nance of aircraft to operations. Such efforts remain Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, for example, tional work packages, are possible but only to a limited credit lines? What revenue mix do certain potential essential so that cyberthreats affecting safety can be develops engineering solutions and provides degree, degree. A fixed-cost reduction likewise is only feasible up targets have—e.g., commercial vs. defense, products mitigated before they materialize, whether that hap- certification and training programs in aviation cyb- to a certain level due to equipment and overhead struc- vs. services or aging vs. next-generation platforms? pens during flight through physical access to a bus, by sersecurity. Faculty researchers contribute expertise tures. So consolidation is an important lever to consider. Finally, consider where the new nucleus of consolida- interfering with equipment through Wi-Fi or remotely to cyberdefense and preparedness efforts by serving Part and parcel to that will be the financial distress tion will be. Will more “super Tier 1s” such as Raytheon disrupting operations. on national and international committees and working into which suppliers in Tier 2 and below fall—and the Technologies emerge, or will conglomeration occur The need to weigh cyberthreats according to their groups and by organizing the annual Aero-Cybersecu- opportunity to roll them up. among Tier 2 and 3 providers? The first would allow safety impact, a practice referred to as “cybersafety,” rity Symposium. Top CEOs are watching. Speaking May 13 to an inves- rationalization of capacity for detailed part production requires a different perspective than that of IT cyber- Aviation’s impeccable safety culture positions it tor conference, Honeywell International Chairman, CEO from Tier 1 to 3, for instance, with the super Tier 1s able security. Cybersafety differs from traditional IT cyber- well to combat and defeat cybersafety risks. In the and President Darius Adamczyk cited an inflection point. to secure through-value-chain control and prevent security because of the need for safety certification, years ahead, the industry will need to invest in ex- “For a couple of years now, I’ve been talking about how it subtier supplier failure, according to Roland Berger. which relies on guaranteeing a system’s behavior, or panded education and training as well as research to is a seller’s market, not a buyer’s market,” he told Gold- The latter likely would be opportunistically driven “determinism.” This unique characteristic of aviation secure high-assurance systems that can be updated man Sachs. “But that calculus may change in the second rather than following any overarching industry logic. cybersafety means that solutions widely used across with minimal impact on certification. c half of the year, and I think it could become a bit more of For smaller suppliers, the questions are more con- traditional computing systems may pose serious certi- a buyer’s market, and the valuations may be better and cise, as one consultant says. Do you want to be a buyer, fication challenges. Imagine rolling out security patches Remzi Seker is the associate provost for research at Embry-Riddle different. That’s something that we want to partake in.” a seller or risk it as is? A simpler question, for sure, for every avionics component on a commercial aircraft. Aeronautical University. Feeding the phenomenon could be a desire to bring but no less difficult to answer. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 13 COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY

airport. Then in 1996, the COLUMBINE II On March 18, 2016, the unexpected occurred. city of Marana hosted an The U.S. Army announced it was shedding its fleet airport party with Mary Eisenhower, the 34th presi- of U-21 Utes (unpressurized King Air 90s) and asked dent’s granddaughter, as guest speaker. The purpose for bids. Stoltzfus carefully weighed all aspects of the was to bid farewell to Columbine II. The following day, solicitation, did some calculations and, holding his the old Connie rumbled into the air for the first time in breath, submitted a bid worth $9 million for all 124 air- 13 years. The test flight revealed only minor squawks. craft. And his bid won. What happened subsequently Finally, on March 23, an excited crowd gathered at is another story, albeit a positive one (AW&ST April 28, Bridgewater Air Park to witness history. Soon, Colum- 2014, p. 16). The company today has some 700 employ- bine II roared into view and circled overhead. Despite ees, operates on several continents and counts the U.S. a stiff crosswind, Lockie Christler, a veteran Connie government among its most important customers. and business jet pilot, settled the belching transport Accordingly, the degeneration of what had once on the center of the narrow 2,745-ft.-long runway, roll- been a symbol of America’s technological and global ing to a stop as onlookers waved and cheered. leadership troubled Stoltzfus, a serious student of Since then, 10-20 Dynamic technicians have been history. He called the Connie’s owner to discuss the working daily to resurrect the aircraft. Stoltzfus is bud- situation, and the following week, his brother was on geting $1 million per year to the effort. Asked when that his way to assess the aircraft’s condition. might conclude, he laughs: “I say, ‘Three more years,’ Further background: Karl and Ken’s father ran an no matter when you ask me.” aerial application business in Pennsylvania. As boys, the Dynamic plans to house the Connie in a new hangar smell of avgas and the roar of round engines were con- dedicated to the Eisenhower legacy and will use it to stant. Their alternate schoolhouse was a hangar; their support customers, inspire youngsters and occasion- mentors, airplane mechanics. When the twin brothers ally display at airshows. Stoltzfus says he’s thrilled to were 23, their father bought five dilapidated DC-3s and be “preserving a piece of American history.” sent his sons to fix and fly them home. They did. Karl Once finally restored, he says, “People are going to has since restored a number of winged derelicts. love this airplane.” c So Ken’s scouting assignment was to determine if the Connie was cancerous with corrosion, for if so, Karl William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY

HE WAS PAGING THROUGH AN would have none of it. Ken’s report back to Bridgewa- aviation history magazine when an arti- ter: Little corrosion, but “Don’t underestimate the work cle about Columbine II, President Dwight involved.” Alas, Karl was to discover: “He was right.” Eisenhower’s aircraft and the first with The Connie’s owner wanted to sell it to someone the call sign Air Force One, caught his eye. He learned who would restore and preserve it and quickly recog- that the government had declared the four-engine nized Stoltzfus as that someone. The two men settled Lockheed Constellation as surplus and, in 1970, sold it on a price somewhat below the $1.5 million desired, at auction to a private buyer—something never repeated and soon Dynamic maintenance crews were shuttling with a former presidential aircraft. between Bridgewater and Marana. Laboring in torrid And now the curvaceous, tri-tailed “Connie” was heat, their goal was to get the Connie ready for ferry- chocked and wilting under the desert sun in Marana, ing to Bridgewater for the full restoration. Arizona, and if it was not On March 8, 2015, moved, it would possibly Stoltzfus flew a King Air Stay Informed. Stay Connected. be scrapped. That was in Perfect Pairing to Marana to see his prize early October 2014. He first-hand. During his slow, put the magazine down The right man at the right time careful walkaround, his and returned his atten- to save a piece of history heart began to sink. The Stay Engaged. tion to Dynamic Aviation. Connie was a sorry pile, By way of background, and he realized that re- the reader, Karl Stoltzfus, turning it to glory would Access authoritative market insights and analysis along with company, program, in 1967 co-founded what be an overwhelming un- became Dynamic with his dertaking. When he came ﬂeet and contact databases covering the global aviation, aerospace and defense brother, Ken. Six years back the following day, later, Ken went into the however, he recalls the air- communities with an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) Membership. ministry. Meanwhile, Karl plane seemed to scream steadily grew the Bridge- at him: “This is some - water, Virginia, aerial-ap- thing you’re supposed to plication operation with do!” And that, along with DC-3s and Beech 18s and encouragement from avi- even bought its home ation friends, was it. airport. Then in 1996, the COLUMBINE II On March 18, 2016, the unexpected occurred. city of Marana hosted an The U.S. Army announced it was shedding its fleet airport party with Mary Eisenhower, the 34th presi- of U-21 Utes (unpressurized King Air 90s) and asked dent’s granddaughter, as guest speaker. The purpose for bids. Stoltzfus carefully weighed all aspects of the was to bid farewell to Columbine II. The following day, solicitation, did some calculations and, holding his the old Connie rumbled into the air for the first time in breath, submitted a bid worth $9 million for all 124 air- 13 years. The test flight revealed only minor squawks. craft. And his bid won. What happened subsequently Finally, on March 23, an excited crowd gathered at is another story, albeit a positive one (AW&ST April 28, Bridgewater Air Park to witness history. Soon, Colum- 2014, p. 16). The company today has some 700 employ- bine II roared into view and circled overhead. Despite ees, operates on several continents and counts the U.S. a stiff crosswind, Lockie Christler, a veteran Connie government among its most important customers. and business jet pilot, settled the belching transport Accordingly, the degeneration of what had once on the center of the narrow 2,745-ft.-long runway, roll- been a symbol of America’s technological and global ing to a stop as onlookers waved and cheered. Become a member today. leadership troubled Stoltzfus, a serious student of Since then, 10-20 Dynamic technicians have been history. He called the Connie’s owner to discuss the working daily to resurrect the aircraft. Stoltzfus is bud- Visit aviationweek.com/AWINinfo to schedule your demo. situation, and the following week, his brother was on geting $1 million per year to the effort. Asked when that his way to assess the aircraft’s condition. might conclude, he laughs: “I say, ‘Three more years,’ Further background: Karl and Ken’s father ran an no matter when you ask me.” aerial application business in Pennsylvania. As boys, the Dynamic plans to house the Connie in a new hangar smell of avgas and the roar of round engines were con- dedicated to the Eisenhower legacy and will use it to stant. Their alternate schoolhouse was a hangar; their support customers, inspire youngsters and occasion- mentors, airplane mechanics. When the twin brothers ally display at airshows. Stoltzfus says he’s thrilled to were 23, their father bought five dilapidated DC-3s and be “preserving a piece of American history.” sent his sons to fix and fly them home. They did. Karl Once finally restored, he says, “People are going to has since restored a number of winged derelicts. love this airplane.” c Or call or So Ken’s scouting assignment was to determine if Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 the Connie was cancerous with corrosion, for if so, Karl William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ADVERTORIAL

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“Two years ago, we introduced virtual reality elements into our avionics systems syllabus,” said Clementi. The school used off-the-shelf hardware and commercial software to teach the evaluation COVID-19 CRISIS > ANSPs’ future p. 22 OEMs and air travel p. 23 FAA changes post-MAX p. 24 Inflight connectivity woes p. 26 F-35 production slowdown p. 27 ONLY THE LUCKY SURVIVE

Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Adrian Schofield Auckland, Bradley Perrett Beijing and Sean Broderick and Ben Goldstein Washington

he airline industry, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, going into the post-COVID-19 restart phase with very high levels of debt. likes to complain that governments are not paying Of the government packages alone, enough attention to its needs even in normal times, $67 billion involve new liabilities. But and that unfair burdens such as high taxes, onerous airlines raised a further $52 billion T in cash from banks, investors and consumer protection rules or growing pressure from environ- lessors. IATA expects debt levels to mentalists hamper it. increase to $550 billion by year-end. IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce But three months into the global did Lufthansa get its own €9 billion says more airlines could fail under the spread of the novel coronavirus, the ($10 billion) package, preceded by a weight of debt, or governments could predicted mass airline failures have €7 billion deal for Air France-KLM become more involved as debt is con- yet to materialize. Why? Largely be- some weeks earlier. verted into equity at a later stage. cause of the $123 billion that the al- According to the International Air Still, it cannot be said that govern- legedly uncooperative governments Transport Association (IATA), loans ments are not acting. The trouble is have pumped into the sector since make up more than $50 billion of the they are mainly acting in selected March. overall support volume and are by far rich, developed countries that can af- The money was instrumental in the most important type of measure, ford to support their industries. And avoiding bankruptcy filings by the followed by wage subsidies ($34 bil- even among the rich, there are huge world’s largest airline groups in the lion), loan guarantees ($11.5 billion) discrepancies: While the U.S. was pre- U.S. and Europe. The $52 billion and equity ﬁ nancing ($11.2 billion). pared to o er 32% of 2019 airline rev- Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Econom- Almost regardless of who is pro- enues, according to IATA statistics, ic Security (CARES) Act stabilized viding the support, unless it is in the Canadian airlines received only 1.3%. the U.S. industry, and only on May 25 form of outright grants, airlines are In other large regions, airlines are

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COVID-19 CRISIS > ANSPs’ future p. 22 OEMs and air travel p. 23 FAA changes post-MAX p. 24 Inflight connectivity woes p. 26 F-35 production slowdown p. 27 OEIEIIONNE

likelihood of failure. Virgin Australia, owners of TAM Brasil) and Qatar arguably an airline in some level of Airways. Noticeably absent from the > GOVERNMENTS SPEND difficulty before COVID-19 hit, filed group is Delta Air Lines, which owns $123 BILLION ON for bankruptcy after the Australian 20% of LATAM, a stake it acquired government decided to not o er assis- in September 2019 to ensure much ONLY THE AIRLINE RESCUES tance. LATAM Airlines, however, the better access to Latin America. Un- LUCKY latest high-profi le victim, was profi t- der the conditions of the CARES Act, able before the crisis. It was by far the U.S. airlines cannot provide fi nancing > MEASURES HELP largest player in its region, supported to subsidiaries abroad. AVERT BIGGER WAVE by powerful investors such as Delta LATAM left the Oneworld alliance OF BANKRUPTCIES Air Lines and Qatar Airways and on May 1. Delta and LATAM signed SURVIVE about to enter a joint venture with a joint-venture agreement covering Delta, pending regulatory approval. flights between the U.S. and Latin > AIRLINE SECTOR TO Still, LATAM filed for Chapter America, onward connections and ENTER RECOVERY WITH 11 proceedings May 26 at the U.S. frequent-flyer benefits on May 7. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern LATAM Airlines Group was set up HIGH DEBT BURDEN District of New York. in 2012 as a result of the merger of “LATAM entered the COVID-19 LAN and TAM. pandemic as a healthy and profi table Boeing CEO David Calhoun said in airline group, yet exceptional cir- a CNBC interview that the bankrupt- cumstances have led to a collapse in cy of a U.S. airline was “most likely” global demand and brought aviation despite CARES funding, a comment and revenues to a virtual standstill,” that has not made him many new the company stated. “In light of the friends in the airline industry. And industry-wide collapse in demand American Airlines CEO Doug Park- and subsequent fi nancial pressures er, for that matter, then felt he needed caused by COVID-19, we need to take to step up and say that American will further action to ensure our airline not need bankruptcy protection to get group long-term sustainability.” Af- through the current downturn. The fected by the fi ling are LATAM and rest of the large U.S. carriers are in its a liates in Chile, Peru, Colombia, similar shape, he says. Ecuador and the U.S., but not sub- “I don’t think people should view sidiaries in Brazil, Argentina and bankruptcy as a fi nancial tool. I think Paraguay “due to the nature of their it’s failure, [and] we’re not going to do On May 26, LATAM Airlines debt structure and current fi nancial that,” Parker said during a Sanford Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Adrian Schofield Auckland, Bradley Perrett Beijing became the latest high-pro le status,” the company said. Bernstein investor event May 27. and Sean Broderick and Ben Goldstein Washington commercial aviation victim of LATAM is now the second large He added that U.S. airlines are fac- the coronavirus crisis. Latin American airline to file for ing a “demand crisis” caused by the bankruptcy in May, following one of novel coronavirus pandemic, which he airline industry, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, going into the post-COVID-19 restart getting very little or no assistance, ei- its largest rivals in the region, Avian- bankruptcy cannot help. That’s dif- phase with very high levels of debt. ther because governments decided it ca. LATAM is operating only around ferent than unsustainable costs in an likes to complain that governments are not paying Of the government packages alone, is bad policy to pump money into the 5% of its normal schedule and has an- oversaturated environment. “There’s enough attention to its needs even in normal times, $67 billion involve new liabilities. But sector or because they simply can- nounced plans to cut 1,850 of 40,000 no one trying to push anybody else and that unfair burdens such as high taxes, onerous airlines raised a further $52 billion not a ord to do so. Airlines in Latin jobs in the group. According to court out of business,” Parker said. “It’s all T in cash from banks, investors and America and parts of Africa are es- documents, leases for 19 aircraft are about demand. We need demand to consumer protection rules or growing pressure from environ- lessors. IATA expects debt levels to sentially on their own, though there a ected, including two Airbus A350s, come back. mentalists hamper it. increase to $550 billion by year-end. are exceptions such as the Middle one A319, one A320, 11 A321s and four “I think we’re all going to be fi ne,” IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce East and Persian Gulf, where states Boeing 787-9s. Airbus and Boeing are he added. “I think we’re all going to But three months into the global did Lufthansa get its own €9 billion says more airlines could fail under the have stepped up. “There is very lim- also exposed in terms of orders: LAT- go raise enough liquidity to get our- spread of the novel coronavirus, the ($10 billion) package, preceded by a weight of debt, or governments could ited support in emerging markets,” AM Airlines has outstanding orders selves through this wall.” predicted mass airline failures have €7 billion deal for Air France-KLM become more involved as debt is con- Pearce says. China, where the big for 20 Airbus A320neos, 19 A321neos Parker said American is “on track” yet to materialize. Why? Largely be- some weeks earlier. verted into equity at a later stage. three players are all state-owned as and two A350-1000s, six Boeing 787- to meet its goal of reducing daily cash cause of the $123 billion that the al- According to the International Air Still, it cannot be said that govern- in the Middle East, is a whole di er- 9s and one 777F. It already canceled burn to $50 million in June, adding legedly uncooperative governments Transport Association (IATA), loans ments are not acting. The trouble is ent story. orders for 10 A350s earlier this year. that it will average $70 million for the have pumped into the sector since make up more than $50 billion of the they are mainly acting in selected Airlines everywhere have made Some of its shareholders have com- quarter. The company expects to end March. overall support volume and are by far rich, developed countries that can af- “cash last longer,” as Pearce puts it, mitted to fi nancial support in the re- the second quarter with $11 billion in The money was instrumental in the most important type of measure, ford to support their industries. And by implementing major cost cuts, and structuring in the form of a loan. The liquidity, including both payroll-sus- avoiding bankruptcy filings by the followed by wage subsidies ($34 bil- even among the rich, there are huge the healthier ones that represent ac- financing is provided by the Cueto tainment money and a $4.75 billion world’s largest airline groups in the lion), loan guarantees ($11.5 billion) discrepancies: While the U.S. was pre- ceptable levels of risk to lenders have family, which took control of what government-backed CARES Act loan U.S. and Europe. The $52 billion and equity fi nancing ($11.2 billion). pared to o er 32% of 2019 airline rev- been able to raise cash from banks or was then LAN Airlines in 1994 and that is not fi nalized. Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Econom- Almost regardless of who is pro- enues, according to IATA statistics, private investors as well. still is the largest shareholder of the A slight uptick in demand will help ic Security (CARES) Act stabilized viding the support, unless it is in the Canadian airlines received only 1.3%. However, there is a correlation broadened group (21.5%), the Ama- by adding much-needed revenue to the U.S. industry, and only on May 25 form of outright grants, airlines are In other large regions, airlines are between the level of support and the ro Group (representing the former the carrier’s co ers. “I’m going to be

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 1 COVID-19 CRISIS

Government Support for Airlines Due to COVID-19 (U.S. $ billion)

Loans $50.4

Wage subsidies 34.8

Loan guarantees 11.5

Equity ﬁnancing 11.2

Ticket taxes 8.5

Corporate taxes 2.6 Operating subsidies/ 1.9 Route funds Cash injections 1.2

Fuel taxes 0.8

Total 123.1

Source: IATA

really careful when we talk about this, Delta Chief Financial Officer Paul softer, totaling 67% for American and because we are still flying only 20% of Jacobson said net sales have improved United and 75% for Delta. Source:our IATA schedule. But on that much-re- modestly, with some recent days of Europe has seen some of the largest duced schedule, we are definitely positive net bookings for the first time bailouts, but they were essentially fo- seeing more demand than we’ve seen in months, citing increased demand cused on Air France-KLM, Lufthansa in prior months,” he said. American’s for beach destinations in Florida and Group and parts of International Air- April load factor was 15%, while the the West Coast. “We think this is real- lines Group. Lufthansa is emerging as U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend ly driven by an uptick in leisure book- a particularly contentious case, as it saw the average flight 56% full. ings for domestic travel in June and involves the government planning to “These are early returns, but they July,” Jacobson said May 19 on a Wolfe take a 20% equity stake in the airline, are encouraging,” Parker said. “This Research Group investor webcast. raising concerns at the European is much better than it was a few United Airlines has also seen a Commission (EC) that the company’s weeks ago, and it looks better as we reduction in customer cancellation already dominant position in some look out into June.” rates accompanied by a “moderate markets will be further consolidated Further out, barring a stunning improvement” in demand for domes- as other airlines fail to receive the about-face, American and every other tic travel in recent weeks. And South- same level of support. airline locked into maintaining their west Airlines, now the country’s larg- The German government plans to payrolls to meet CARES Act funding est carrier by seats offered, reported inject €5.7 billion in the form of silent requirements until Oct. 1 will have positive month-to-date net bookings participation, provide €3 billion in to get smaller—and fast. American’s through May 18. loans and buy into the equity. Under “goal” remains to shrink using volun- Airlines are adding capacity in certain conditions, the government tary processes, but Parker acknowl- June in preparation for the antici- stake could rise to 30% in the coming edges that will be a challenge. pated upswing. Domestic carriers years, essentially giving it control of “We will need to make sure that we will operate the largest portions of the airline. On the other hand, there rightsize our company accordingly,” their schedules, led by Southwest at are mechanisms in place for the re - he said. “We’re going to try to do that 52% of last summer’s levels. Alaska payment of the loan and the partic- in a way that, hopefully, we wouldn’t Airlines and JetBlue Airways will ipation that foresee rising interest even have to furlough anyone. I know double their seats on offer in June payments in outer years. that sounds like a stretch. It’s a goal; from May, while ultra-low-cost car- Lufthansa’s board delayed a deci- it’s not a commitment.” rier Spirit Airlines is bucking the sion to approve the bailout based on U.S. airline traffic bottomed out on trend with plans to operate just 5% concerns that potential slot remedies April 14, when roughly 88,000 people of its 2019 schedule next month. imposed on it by the EC were too passed through TSA checkpoints, Full-service carriers, with far great- onerous in the long term. But it con- compared to 2.2 million on the same er international exposure, are playing ceded that there are no other viable day last year. Since then, there has it slightly more conservatively. Delta’s options to retain solvency. The airline been a steady uptick in traffic, with mainline June cuts will total roughly earlier had studied filing for the pro- nearly 350,000 people tracked on May 78% of its original schedule, while tective umbrella insolvency scheme 22 ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, United will cut 90% and American will but rejected it because it was seen as the highest daily total in months but cut the least, at 67%. Reductions at being too disruptive for passengers, still down 88% from a year ago. their regional affiliates are somewhat investors and employees.

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COVID-19 CRISIS

Government Support for Airlines Due to COVID-19 (U.S. $ billion) State Aid Distribution

Loans $50.4 10 2019 U.. $ 2019

Wage subsidies 34.8 U.. $200 2.

Loan guarantees 11.5 12 2.0

Equity ﬁnancing 11.2 U 45 .1

Ticket taxes 8.5 J 4 22.1

Corporate taxes 2.6 2 19.5 Operating subsidies/ 1.9 Route funds 2 4.4

Cash injections 1.2 2 1. Fuel taxes 0.8 25 .1 Total 123.1 24 1.

2 0.0 Source: IATA Source: IATA really careful when we talk about this, Delta Chief Financial Officer Paul softer, totaling 67% for American and While all Southeast Asian flag over the past several months, but its by Temasek Holdings, the govern- because we are still flying only 20% of Jacobson said net sales have improved United and 75% for Delta. carriers have been hit hard by the proposals have been rejected at least ment-owned fund that is SIA’s ma- Source:our IATA schedule. But on that much-re- modestly, with some recent days of Europe has seen some of the largest COVID-19 crisis, some are in a worse twice by the government. jority owner. Temasek committed to duced schedule, we are definitely positive net bookings for the first time bailouts, but they were essentially fo- predicament than others. Thai Air- Although the government shows purchasing its own entitlement as well seeing more demand than we’ve seen in months, citing increased demand cused on Air France-KLM, Lufthansa waysSource: IATA and Singapore Airlines (SIA) no sign of completely divesting Thai as any of the remainder that is unsold. in prior months,” he said. American’s for beach destinations in Florida and Group and parts of International Air- provide contrasting examples of how Airways, it has reduced its major - For the airline industry, a look at April load factor was 15%, while the the West Coast. “We think this is real- lines Group. Lufthansa is emerging as airlines’ financial health before the ity stake. On May 25, the airline China is a look at what it hopes will be U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend ly driven by an uptick in leisure book- a particularly contentious case, as it pandemic has helped or hurt efforts announced that Thailand’s finance its own future in terms of traffic recov- saw the average flight 56% full. ings for domestic travel in June and involves the government planning to to gain crucial funding support. ministry had sold 3.17% of its share- ery and government support. Most of “These are early returns, but they July,” Jacobson said May 19 on a Wolfe take a 20% equity stake in the airline, SIA fell to a rare quarterly loss due holding to the Vayupak Fund. This is the sector is government-owned and are encouraging,” Parker said. “This Research Group investor webcast. raising concerns at the European to the pandemic, although its strong significant, as it drops the ministry’s not at risk of failing, as that would not is much better than it was a few United Airlines has also seen a Commission (EC) that the company’s balance sheet and significant state holding lower than 50%, which means be politically opportune. weeks ago, and it looks better as we reduction in customer cancellation already dominant position in some backing give it a brighter outlook the airline ceases to be classified as a With China being hit by the pan- look out into June.” rates accompanied by a “moderate markets will be further consolidated than most of its peers. Thai Airways, state-owned enterprise. demic first, domestic capacity bot- Further out, barring a stunning improvement” in demand for domes- as other airlines fail to receive the in contrast, has been forced into bank- Of course, Thai Airways is far tomed in the week beginning Feb.17 about-face, American and every other tic travel in recent weeks. And South- same level of support. ruptcy court to restructure after its from the only Southeast Asian flag at 30% of the level of a year earlier, airline locked into maintaining their west Airlines, now the country’s larg- The German government plans to government could not justify pouring carrier in a dire situation. Malaysia according to capacity data from OAG payrolls to meet CARES Act funding est carrier by seats offered, reported inject €5.7 billion in the form of silent more money into a perennially under- Airlines and Garuda Indonesia are and CAPA – Centre for Aviation. Or- requirements until Oct. 1 will have positive month-to-date net bookings participation, provide €3 billion in performing company. other examples of airlines that were dered back to work with the rest of to get smaller—and fast. American’s through May 18. loans and buy into the equity. Under Thai declared on May 19 that it will attempting financial turnarounds be- the country, the airlines approximate- “goal” remains to shrink using volun- Airlines are adding capacity in certain conditions, the government proceed with its reorganization plan fore COVID-19, and the pandemic now ly doubled capacity in the following tary processes, but Parker acknowl- June in preparation for the antici- stake could rise to 30% in the coming under the supervision of the Cen- threatens to derail their efforts. two weeks, but they could not sustain edges that will be a challenge. pated upswing. Domestic carriers years, essentially giving it control of tral Bankruptcy Court of Thailand. SIA entered the current crisis in a the rises: The trend flattened from “We will need to make sure that we will operate the largest portions of the airline. On the other hand, there This move was decided by the Thai relatively strong financial condition. early March to late April, when an rightsize our company accordingly,” their schedules, led by Southwest at are mechanisms in place for the re - prime minister and his cabinet, as the The carrier has for many years set the upward trend in activity resumed. he said. “We’re going to try to do that 52% of last summer’s levels. Alaska payment of the loan and the partic- government is the carrier’s largest standard in this region for long-term Passenger load factors indicate in a way that, hopefully, we wouldn’t Airlines and JetBlue Airways will ipation that foresee rising interest shareholder. profitability and sound management. that the airlines have been flying far even have to furlough anyone. I know double their seats on offer in June payments in outer years. The government’s plans for Thai The airline did report a S$212 mil- more capacity than needed, presum- that sounds like a stretch. It’s a goal; from May, while ultra-low-cost car- Lufthansa’s board delayed a deci- Airways were in flux before the cab- lion ($150 million) loss for the fiscal ably because the government wants it’s not a commitment.” rier Spirit Airlines is bucking the sion to approve the bailout based on inet meeting. A 54 billion baht ($1.7 year through March 31. This was this industry, like others, to appear U.S. airline traffic bottomed out on trend with plans to operate just 5% concerns that potential slot remedies billion) bailout loan package had been primarily because it was forced to normal. But the disparity has nar - April 14, when roughly 88,000 people of its 2019 schedule next month. imposed on it by the EC were too considered as an alternative, but the halt 96% of its operations in its fiscal rowed. China Southern Airlines and passed through TSA checkpoints, Full-service carriers, with far great- onerous in the long term. But it con- government ultimately rejected that fourth quarter, following a strong per- its affiliates, for example, filled 60% compared to 2.2 million on the same er international exposure, are playing ceded that there are no other viable course and decided bankruptcy court formance in the previous three quar- of domestic available seat kilometers day last year. Since then, there has it slightly more conservatively. Delta’s options to retain solvency. The airline was the preferred option. ters. The annual net loss was the first (ASK) in March, improving to 65% in been a steady uptick in traffic, with mainline June cuts will total roughly earlier had studied filing for the pro- The carrier has recorded substan- in the airline’s history. April, though still far short of the 83% nearly 350,000 people tracked on May 78% of its original schedule, while tective umbrella insolvency scheme tial losses in all but three of the past The carrier announced on March of a year earlier. The figures for the 22 ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, United will cut 90% and American will but rejected it because it was seen as 10 years, including a 12 billion baht 26 that it would raise up to S$15 bil- groups centered on the other two big the highest daily total in months but cut the least, at 67%. Reductions at being too disruptive for passengers, loss in 2019. Thai has been working on lion in equity through new share and state carriers—Air China and China still down 88% from a year ago. their regional affiliates are somewhat investors and employees. a revised fleet and business strategy bond issues. This move is supported Eastern Airlines—were similar. c

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 21 COVID-19 CRISIS

Tower controllers scanned the scene at Calgary International Airport. “Eurocontrol and the states and ANSPs have basically deferred the col- lection of route charges for four months until next year, and this is saving airlines €1.3 billion,” said Brennan. “In parallel to that, we’re borrowing a similar amount to support ANSPs in Eu- rope, because the reality is ANSPs will have no cash [from] basically March to the end of August, and this is going to result in significant economies.” Air traffic movements in Canada were down 75% in April compared to a year earlier. The drop-off has challenged Nav Canada, a privatized ANSP that recovers its costs from the service charges it levies on aircraft operators. NAV CANADA “We needed to mitigate very signif- ANSPs Ponder the Future icant cash outflows, given the disap- pearance of our revenues,” said Nav After the Pandemic’s End Canada President and CEO Neil Wilson. “Liquidity is absolutely the issue we face right now. Clearly, the challenge GLOBAL AIR TRAFFIC MOVEMENTS ARE DOWN 63% > we face as we work together with our > ANSPs ARE REELING FROM REDUCED REVENUES partners and with our customers is how are we going to collectively deal Bill Carey Washington with the liquidity issue that we all face from the very significant downturn in ir navigation service providers ANSPs in Europe and Canada that passenger traffic and obviously the expect a gradual, unsteady rely on airlines paying fees for air nav- movement of aircraft as well.” Arecovery from a coronavirus igation services are reeling financially. On May 20, Nav Canada released a pandemic that has severely depressed European ANSPs were managing proposal for consultation to change its air traffic and forced them to reassess 89% fewer flights than normal, “and this service charges as of Sept. 1. It calls for their future workforces and facilities. has added up to a €5 billion [$5.4 billion] increased base-rate service charges “It will not be a smooth recovery. It hole in the air traffic finances in Eu- averaging 29.5% and includes payment will be extremely volatile,” said Kevin rope,” said Eurocontrol Director deferral mechanisms to ease the im- Shum, director general of the Civil Avi- General Eamonn Brennan. “Our pro- pact on airspace users, the ANSP said. ation Authority of Singapore (CAAS), jections mean that we don’t anticipate “What our business is going to look when asked how air traffic control au- any significant resumption to growth like in the next 5-10 years is very differ- thorities will resume normal operations until August. We believe we’ll get back ent from what it looks like now,” Wilson when the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. to 50% of our capacity in August.” advised. “We have very rigid institu- “There will be periods of highs, and With airline flight activity dramat- tional restrictions, we’re people-inten- quite frankly, there will be periods ically reduced, Eurocontrol’s Central sive, we’ve got a lot of technology [and] when traffic drops again,” he added. Route Charges Office is collecting less sunk costs. It takes a long time to train “In the short-to-medium term, it is in route and terminal charges on be- [controllers]—we make a big invest- extremely unlikely we will return to half of its 41 member states, money ment in our people. All of those are pre-COVID levels of traffic. It is fair to that ANSPs use to finance air naviga- things that we need to start changing.” assume our base [workload] is going to tion facilities and services. The CAAS was experiencing an 85% be depressed for a considerable time.” In early April, Eurocontrol member decline in air traffic from prepandemic Shum was one of four air navigation states agreed to help struggling airlines levels, and controllers were managing service provider (ANSP) chief execu- by deferring €1.3 billion in payments for in a day the number of flights they pre- tives who spoke May 20 during a Flight air traffic services. In a second rescue viously handled in an hour, Shum said. Safety Foundation webinar, along with package approved a week later, states “It is extremely challenging and dif- Simon Hocquard, director general of authorized Eurocontrol to borrow up ferent for most of us, because the prob- the Civil Air Navigation Services Orga- to €1.27 billion, which it will use to pay lem that we have had to deal with for nization. They described financial, op- ANSPs 51% of their operating costs the last few decades is constant, rising erational and training effects of the pan- for four months. The Brussels-based traffic. We’re heading into an environ- demic that reduced average global air agency will recover the money from ment where we are limited in resources traffic movements by 63% as of May 13 the deferred payments and other later and the demand for our services is from January, according to Hocquard. payments due to ANSPs. extremely volatile,” Shum said. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COVID-19 CRISIS

Tower controllers scanned the scene OEMs Increase Efforts To Boost at Calgary International Airport. Confidence in Air Travel “Eurocontrol and the states and ANSPs have basically deferred the col- > MANUFACTURERS STEP UP RESEARCH TO COMBAT TRAVEL FEARS lection of route charges for four months until next year, and this is saving air- > ICAO AND GOVERNMENTS ATTEMPT TO ESTABLISH lines €1.3 billion,” said Brennan. “In WORKABLE PROTOCOLS parallel to that, we’re borrowing a similar amount to support ANSPs in Eu- rope, because the reality is ANSPs will have no cash [from] basically March to the end of August, and this is going Getting parked aircraft back in service will to result in significant economies.” Air traffic movements in Canada require instilling confidence in passengers and were down 75% in April compared to front-line workers. a year earlier. The drop-off has chal- MARTIN SYLVESTER/RITZAU SCANPIX/AFP/GETTY IMAGES lenged Nav Canada, a privatized ANSP that recovers its costs from the service charges it levies on aircraft operators. NAV CANADA “We needed to mitigate very signif- ANSPs Ponder the Future icant cash outflows, given the disap- pearance of our revenues,” said Nav After the Pandemic’s End Canada President and CEO Neil Wilson. “Liquidity is absolutely the issue we face right now. Clearly, the challenge GLOBAL AIR TRAFFIC MOVEMENTS ARE DOWN 63% > we face as we work together with our > ANSPs ARE REELING FROM REDUCED REVENUES partners and with our customers is how are we going to collectively deal Bill Carey Washington with the liquidity issue that we all face Sean Broderick Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt from the very significant downturn in ir navigation service providers ANSPs in Europe and Canada that passenger traffic and obviously the ircraft manufacturers are cation ramifications alone make this Boeing’s work will focus primarily expect a gradual, unsteady rely on airlines paying fees for air nav- movement of aircraft as well.” quick to note that nobody improbable. But the company will eye on its products but will have ramifi- Arecovery from a coronavirus igation services are reeling financially. On May 20, Nav Canada released a Aknows more about how their such changes as part of future product cations beyond its aircraft production pandemic that has severely depressed European ANSPs were managing proposal for consultation to change its products work than they do, so their development. line. Delaney envisions the manufac- air traffic and forced them to reassess 89% fewer flights than normal, “and this service charges as of Sept. 1. It calls for increasingly public involvement in Delaney and his team will start by turers working together on low-hang- their future workforces and facilities. has added up to a €5 billion [$5.4 billion] increased base-rate service charges helping guide industry through the reaffirming practices such as what ing fruit such as not issuing conflicting “It will not be a smooth recovery. It hole in the air traffic finances in Eu- averaging 29.5% and includes payment novel coronavirus pandemic should cleaners and materials are approved guidance on once seemingly mundane will be extremely volatile,” said Kevin rope,” said Eurocontrol Director deferral mechanisms to ease the im- come as no surprise. for different aircraft surfaces. They issues as the types of cleaners they Shum, director general of the Civil Avi- General Eamonn Brennan. “Our pro- pact on airspace users, the ANSP said. Boeing has made the most visible also will work with health experts to recommend. ation Authority of Singapore (CAAS), jections mean that we don’t anticipate “What our business is going to look move so far, standing up what the model various cabin scenarios to gain The most critical factor when when asked how air traffic control au- any significant resumption to growth like in the next 5-10 years is very differ- company says will be an industry-wide a deeper understanding of how viruses recommending cleaning products is thorities will resume normal operations until August. We believe we’ll get back ent from what it looks like now,” Wilson initiative. But others are working on spread on an aircraft and what can be ensuring cleaners do not damage ma- when the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. to 50% of our capacity in August.” advised. “We have very rigid institu- both reassuring passengers and front- done to mitigate transmission risks. terials or coatings found on aircraft. “There will be periods of highs, and With airline flight activity dramat- tional restrictions, we’re people-inten- line workers as well as eyeing new The initial virus-transmission A close second factor is not having quite frankly, there will be periods ically reduced, Eurocontrol’s Central sive, we’ve got a lot of technology [and] products and protocols that could be- modeling uses a widebody cabin lay- Boeing and Airbus differ on specific when traffic drops again,” he added. Route Charges Office is collecting less sunk costs. It takes a long time to train come part of a revised post-pandemic out, Delaney says. Among the topics brands or versions of products that “In the short-to-medium term, it is in route and terminal charges on be- [controllers]—we make a big invest- travel experience. Boeing plans to explore: How does in- are basically identical. Recommend- extremely unlikely we will return to half of its 41 member states, money ment in our people. All of those are Boeing tapped longtime executive troducing variables, such as different ing slightly different products without pre-COVID levels of traffic. It is fair to that ANSPs use to finance air naviga- things that we need to start changing.” and former head of commercial en- airflow rates or multiple sick passen- technical justification can drive up assume our base [workload] is going to tion facilities and services. The CAAS was experiencing an 85% gineering Mike Delaney to lead the gers, affect disease-transmission risk inventory costs for airlines and main- be depressed for a considerable time.” In early April, Eurocontrol member decline in air traffic from prepandemic Confident Travel Initiative, effective levels onboard, and what technology, tenance, repair and overhaul provid- Shum was one of four air navigation states agreed to help struggling airlines levels, and controllers were managing immediately. Delaney says the effort such as UVC light sanitizing, might ers—something they try to avoid even service provider (ANSP) chief execu- by deferring €1.3 billion in payments for in a day the number of flights they pre- will take a strategic approach to de- work to reduce risks. when their balance sheets are strong. tives who spoke May 20 during a Flight air traffic services. In a second rescue viously handled in an hour, Shum said. veloping new protocols and reaffirm- “Air travel is coming back,” says Unlike Boeing, Airbus is not nam- Safety Foundation webinar, along with package approved a week later, states “It is extremely challenging and dif- ing current ones linked to keeping Delaney, a 31-year Boeing veteran who ing a senior executive to deal with the Simon Hocquard, director general of authorized Eurocontrol to borrow up ferent for most of us, because the prob- aircraft virus-free—part of a series was vice president of engineering at COVID-19 fallout full-time. But Jean- the Civil Air Navigation Services Orga- to €1.27 billion, which it will use to pay lem that we have had to deal with for of confidence-building initiatives seen Boeing Commercial Airplanes from Brice Dumont, executive vice presi- nization. They described financial, op- ANSPs 51% of their operating costs the last few decades is constant, rising as critical for the recovery of airline 2010 to 2016 and most recently served dent of engineering, is leading an in- erational and training effects of the pan- for four months. The Brussels-based traffic. We’re heading into an environ- passenger demand. as vice president of digital transforma- ternal effort to look into cabin-health demic that reduced average global air agency will recover the money from ment where we are limited in resources Boeing will not make any major tion. “As that happens, we want pas- research and development projects traffic movements by 63% as of May 13 the deferred payments and other later and the demand for our services is changes, such as rolling out new anti- sengers and crews to board Boeing that should be undertaken as a result from January, according to Hocquard. payments due to ANSPs. extremely volatile,” Shum said. c microbial coatings, overnight. Certifi- airplanes without hesitation,” he says. of the pandemic. He is also behind an

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 23 COVID-19 CRISIS

Airbus effort to convey the message to the public that flying is still safe. Airbus has begun to engage with authorities, airlines and airports to come up with a common risk analysis and define possible joint initiatives. Dumont says Airbus is concerned that measures will not be coordinated

among different countries. It has not TAD DENSON/AIRWIND.COM coordinated its response with Boeing or other OEMs, either. The European airframer also is starting to look at what it calls the “cabin of tomorrow,” which could include the greater use of self-sanitizing materials, Dumont says. Airbus CEO Manufacturers realize that a rebound in new-aircraft production is partially Guillaume Faury recently said that dependent on developing cabin health-related advances. cabin health could become a significant area for future Airbus research for regulators to lean on (AW&ST viding a foundation for making deci- investment. May 18-31, p. 25). The International sions related to the aircraft-cabin and Embraer provided some reassur- Air Transport Association (IATA) is ground-services environments. ance for passengers and cabin crew working on recommendations for air- “We’re working with all those orga- through a simple website article. The lines but is opposed to initiatives such nizations,” Delaney says. “We believe Brazilian OEM’s commentary details as keeping middle seats empty and that their ability to set a tone and how tests and simulations of cabin quarantining incoming passengers. standard is going to be critical for airflow during the development of its The OEMs are optimistic that their the global system to add capacity and E-Jets helped determine the position- work can add factual context to the productivity while allowing people to ing of overhead passenger service unit efforts of ICAO, IATA and others, probe safe.” c (PSU) airflow valves, or gaspers. “We found that the correct position- ing of the PSU gaspers in relation to a person’s head, and the resulting air- Boeing 777X Scrutiny Is Evidence flow, creates a kind of air curtain, or air barrier,” Embraer says. “The cone- of FAA Changes Post-MAX shaped flow pattern from the gasper disperses and then directs particles to air intake ports near the bins.” > FAA IS REVIEWING 777X DESIGN AND OPERATIONS The air curtain formed by the gas- AGENCY PLANS FOR THE REVIEW TO BE A BRIDGE TO per is why Embraer recommends that > PERMANENT CERTIFICATION PROCESS CHANGES passengers turn the airflow on, “so that they always have a steady stream Sean Broderick Washington of air directed at their seat area.” The OEMs will collaborate at some group of internal FAA sub - and more thorough scrutiny of SSAs, level, likely through International Coor- ject-matter experts is re - have been cited in other reports that, dinating Council of Aerospace Indus- Aviewing aspects of the Boeing like the Transportation Department tries Associations working groups. The 777X at the request of senior manage- review, were prompted by two fatal council is part of a 25-member group ment—the latest sign that the 737 737 MAX accidents in five months. working on an International Civil Avi- MAX saga is changing how the FAA The accidents killed 346 people and ation Organization (ICAO) initiative to- does business. led regulators to ground the fleet and ward a comprehensive set of guidance The Technical Advisory Board review the model’s certification. for the entire air travel process. (TAB) is examining several broad The FAA often uses TABs composed ICAO is spearheading a Public areas—including human factors, of agency experts not involved in the Health Corridors concept, leading a airworthiness, operations, mainte- day-to-day project they are examining task force that will attempt to develop nance and system safety assessments to look at specific certification or air- a virtual travel bubble for flight and (SSA)—a senior government official fa- worthiness issues and provide recom- cabin crews and, eventually, for pas- miliar with the project says. The tasks mendations to agency staff. The FAA sengers. The task force’s initial guid- align with issues highlighted in a U.S. has a TAB reviewing some of Boeing’s ance, focusing on protecting cargo Transportation Department special proposed changes to the MAX, which flight crews, was issued on May 11. committee report released in January, remains grounded while Boeing modi- The ICAO work, in collaboration which made recommendations on how fies its flight control software and pilot with both industry stakeholders and the agency can improve certification. training. Non-FAA experts are among health experts, is emerging as the Several of them, notably increased those on the MAX TAB, which is re- most logical global unification effort involvement by human factors experts viewing the agency’s conclusions, in-

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COVID-19 CRISIS

Airbus effort to convey the message cluding findings of compliance, related [safety management systems, or SMS] led the FAA to order design changes to the public that flying is still safe. to Boeing’s proposed changes. program with an operator’s SMS pro- that would have improved the MAX’s Airbus has begun to engage with The 777X review team is acting gram,” the agency says. safety, a team of 10 regulators probing authorities, airlines and airports to more like a traditional TAB, provid- The FAA plans to launch a policy re- the issue concluded last October. The come up with a common risk analysis ing advice to the FAA’s 777X certifi- view team in the coming weeks linked agency believes that more proactive and define possible joint initiatives. cation team, and its review extends to the SSA process improvements. involvement during certification by Dumont says Airbus is concerned beyond design and into the oper - One of its prime areas of focus will be a broader range of experts, notably that measures will not be coordinated ational environment. For example, integrating more human factors exper- human factors specialists, will reduce among different countries. It has not TAD DENSON/AIRWIND.COM the team’s review of the newest 777’s tise into not just SSA evaluation but the risk of similar mistakes. coordinated its response with Boeing highly scrutinized folding wingtips will into the entire certification process. One SSA-related area on which or other OEMs, either. focus as much on human factors and The agency is recruiting at least eight FAA pushed back is the committee’s The European airframer also is operational issues such as flight deck human factors specialists who will be call to remove exclusions for skill-re- starting to look at what it calls the interfaces and deicing as it does on the assigned to its Aircraft Evaluation lated errors associated with manual “cabin of tomorrow,” which could in- system’s design. Group (AEG). The AEG is the primary control of the aircraft. In theory, this clude the greater use of self-sanitizing Boeing is working with the TAB, the link between the FAA’s Aircraft Certi- would force manufacturers to ensure materials, Dumont says. Airbus CEO Manufacturers realize that a rebound in new-aircraft production is partially official says, providing technical docu- fication and Flight Standards units. A their designs compensate for mistakes Guillaume Faury recently said that dependent on developing cabin health-related advances. mentation and other support to mem- need for better coordination between during not only complex hand-flying cabin health could become a signifi- bers. The TAB has about 16 members the two organizations was among the tasks but also routine ones such as er- cant area for future Airbus research for regulators to lean on (AW&ST viding a foundation for making deci- and taps deeper FAA expertise on an issues highlighted in reviews of the rors on crosswind landings. investment. May 18-31, p. 25). The International sions related to the aircraft-cabin and as-needed basis. MAX certification process. Such an approach “might be viewed Embraer provided some reassur- Air Transport Association (IATA) is ground-services environments. The TAB is not on a specific sched- In both MAX accidents, Lion Air as driving manufacturers toward a sin- ance for passengers and cabin crew working on recommendations for air- “We’re working with all those orga- ule, and its work is not expected to Flight 610 in October 2018 and Ethi- gle solution—a fully autonomous air- through a simple website article. The lines but is opposed to initiatives such nizations,” Delaney says. “We believe affect the certification timeline of the opian Airlines Flight 302 in March craft,” the FAA says. “The FAA seeks

Brazilian OEM’s commentary details as keeping middle seats empty and that their ability to set a tone and 777-9, the first model in the new family. BOEING how tests and simulations of cabin quarantining incoming passengers. standard is going to be critical for Two 777-9s are in flight testing, and two airflow during the development of its The OEMs are optimistic that their the global system to add capacity and more are expected to join them. First E-Jets helped determine the position- work can add factual context to the productivity while allowing people to deliveries are planned for next year. A special panel of internal FAA experts ing of overhead passenger service unit efforts of ICAO, IATA and others, probe safe.” c In the longer term, the FAA sees the is reviewing the 777X design. (PSU) airflow valves, or gaspers. 777X TAB as a bridge to a permanent “We found that the correct position- shift the agency is planning for its cer- ing of the PSU gaspers in relation to tification process, the official says. The a person’s head, and the resulting air- Boeing 777X Scrutiny Is Evidence change is part of the FAA’s response flow, creates a kind of air curtain, or to the MAX reports and to a few out- air barrier,” Embraer says. “The cone- of FAA Changes Post-MAX standing recommendations from pre- shaped flow pattern from the gasper vious certification reviews. disperses and then directs particles to The FAA’s recently released re - air intake ports near the bins.” > FAA IS REVIEWING 777X DESIGN AND OPERATIONS sponse to the Transportation Depart- The air curtain formed by the gas- AGENCY PLANS FOR THE REVIEW TO BE A BRIDGE TO ment committee report highlights per is why Embraer recommends that > several focus areas. Among them is to PERMANENT CERTIFICATION PROCESS CHANGES passengers turn the airflow on, “so “approach certification holistically by that they always have a steady stream treating the aircraft as complex sys- Sean Broderick Washington of air directed at their seat area.” tems, with full consideration of how all The OEMs will collaborate at some group of internal FAA sub - and more thorough scrutiny of SSAs, the elements in the operating system 2019, software added to the MAX that to avoid unnecessarily limiting the level, likely through International Coor- ject-matter experts is re - have been cited in other reports that, interact,” the agency wrote. can automatically move the stabiliz- range of potential solutions.” dinating Council of Aerospace Indus- Aviewing aspects of the Boeing like the Transportation Department The FAA also plans to “prioritize” er in certain flight profiles activated The agency also has tasked an advi- tries Associations working groups. The 777X at the request of senior manage- review, were prompted by two fatal a long-stalled revamp of SSA rules when it was not needed. Neither crew sory committee to examine how certifi- council is part of a 25-member group ment—the latest sign that the 737 737 MAX accidents in five months. and guidance. Launched in 2011 with reacted to the resulting aircraft nose- cation can reasonably consider an air- working on an International Civil Avi- MAX saga is changing how the FAA The accidents killed 346 people and the intent of adopting recommenda- down commands as Boeing had be- craft’s global operating environment ation Organization (ICAO) initiative to- does business. led regulators to ground the fleet and tions made by a rulemaking advisory lieved they would, and both accident when developing operational require- ward a comprehensive set of guidance The Technical Advisory Board review the model’s certification. committee and standardizing with sequences ended in fatal dives. ments. The FAA and other regulators for the entire air travel process. (TAB) is examining several broad The FAA often uses TABs composed the European Union Aviation Safety Reviews of the MAX certification that certify aircraft are facing calls to ICAO is spearheading a Public areas—including human factors, of agency experts not involved in the Agency, progress quickly slowed. The found that not only were Boeing’s develop broader training and mainte- Health Corridors concept, leading a airworthiness, operations, mainte- day-to-day project they are examining FAA now plans to publish a draft rule pilot-reaction assumptions wrong, the nance requirements that take into ac- task force that will attempt to develop nance and system safety assessments to look at specific certification or air- by November. stabilizer SSA had not been not updat- count different regulatory standards, a virtual travel bubble for flight and (SSA)—a senior government official fa- worthiness issues and provide recom- “The planned new and/or updated ed after changes to the software—the such as pilot qualification minimums, cabin crews and, eventually, for pas- miliar with the project says. The tasks mendations to agency staff. The FAA guidance and standards will address Maneuvering Characteristics Augmen- around the world, as opposed to the sengers. The task force’s initial guid- align with issues highlighted in a U.S. has a TAB reviewing some of Boeing’s issues such as validating assumptions tation System flight control law—were framework that they have established ance, focusing on protecting cargo Transportation Department special proposed changes to the MAX, which made in the system safety assess- made late in the aircraft’s development. for their airlines. flight crews, was issued on May 11. committee report released in January, remains grounded while Boeing modi- ments concerning trained flight crew Some FAA experts knew about the The FAA says it will assign a “senior The ICAO work, in collaboration which made recommendations on how fies its flight control software and pilot recognition of single and multiple fail- changes, but because they were not manager” to help keep the tasks out- with both industry stakeholders and the agency can improve certification. training. Non-FAA experts are among ures, tracking and validating changes documented in an updated SSA, key lined in its response on track and health experts, is emerging as the Several of them, notably increased those on the MAX TAB, which is re- to key safety-related assumptions, FAA engineers were left out of the loop. “oversee the implementation of all ac- most logical global unification effort involvement by human factors experts viewing the agency’s conclusions, in- and coordinating the manufacturer’s Better communication might have tivities.” c

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 25 COVID-19 CRISIS

Coronavirus Is a Crucible March 31, which includes charges of $46.4 million related to the impairment of certain long-lived assets and $6.8 million for IFC/IFE Businesses in additional credit loss reserves taken during the quarter. The quarterly loss was fourfold compared with a year before. > BIG DROPS REPORTED IN IFC/IFE REVENUE Tragically, the embattled company—which in recent years considered looking for a buyer—was expecting a > INSIDERS AND ANALYSTS HAVE SUNNY VIEW bright year at the start of the last quarter. “I am going BUT ACKNOWLEDGE DARK CLOUDS to steal a little Charles Dickens to put the quarter in perspective, and that is that the first quarter was definitely a Michael Bruno Washington tale of two quarters,” Gogo CEO and President Oakleigh Thorne said at the start of his quarterly report. “It was he inflight connectivity and entertainment (IFC/IFE) the best of times in January and February and close to the sector could take years to return to pre-COVID-19 worst of times in March.” Tbusiness levels, according to a new analysis. But Unfortunately, April business results were even worse while the sector has followed commercial and business than in March, he continued. That was when commercial aviation into a deep rut, analysts and executives say they air traffic dropped 95% from a year before, and 105 of 193 can see sunnier days ahead. airlines globally were not flying at all. Business aviation also was down 80%. Roughly 30% of Gogo’s 5,700 business jet air-to-ground IFC REVENUE 2019 vs. 2020 Expected customer accounts cut their spending with the IFC provider, including 940 ac- 0,000 20 0 $2.5 count suspensions and more than 750 1 0,000 1 50 2.0 service plan downgrades. 50,000 14 40 The company—which a year ago con- 12 1.5 40,000 cluded a major restructuring—is un- 10 0

Gbps dertaking another round of dramatic 0,000 1.0 20 20,000 $ Billion U.S. changes to bolster its finances. Gogo

Number of Units 4 0.5 furloughed 54% of its workforce effective 10,000 10 2 Equivalents Transponder May 4, affecting around 600 employees 0 0 0 0.0 across all three of Gogo’s business seg- - U U U ments, as well as at its headquarters. - The company applied for an $81 mil- HTS = High-throughput satellite 2019 2020 FSS = Fixed-satellite service lion grant and a $150 million loan under Source: Northern Sky Research the recently enacted U.S. Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security A new report from Northern Sky Research sees almost (CARES) Act. If it receives funding, “it will modify the $37 billion in cumulative IFC revenue through 2029, de - announced personnel actions to comply with the terms of spite a near-term plunge due to the novel coronavirus. that assistance.” Compensation was cut for everyone else, Overall,Source: orer the S sector eerc should see a compound annual growth including 30% for the CEO and directors on the board and rate of 9.8% in the period. 20% for the rest of executive leadership. Still, business probably will get worse before it gets bet- On May 11, executives outlined ongoing negotiations ter. “Market difficulties are likely to remain for an extended with satellite suppliers and customers to redo contract period” and not abate before 2022, Northern Sky acknowl- terms. They also are delaying aircraft equipment installa- edges. “This is likely to occur as pandemic progression re- tions at airlines, especially those tied to older deals where sults in continued grounded aircraft and financial pressures Gogo “heavily” subsidized equipment under a previous on airlines, OEMs ramping down aircraft production rates, business model. To play it safe, executives now are plan- economic slowdown scenarios, and possible flying hassles ning on practically no more installations the rest of this and psychological resistance deterring travelers.” year. Other cutbacks include deferring capital equipment IFC and IFE providers echoed as much in recent quar- purchases and reducing spending on marketing, travel terly teleconferences. “It’s an airline-related business,” and nonessentials. says Thales Chairman and CEO Patrice Caine, and “will Thorne said the cost savings could save Gogo up to be affected as well by this aeronautical crisis.” $170 million in cash through the end of 2021. But S&P Thales is a multi-industrial provider, so it is better suit- Global Ratings on May 12 reaffirmed its negative credit ed to weather the downturn. IFE was an €800 million watch on Gogo, as its liquidity will remain under pressure. ($878 million) business in 2019, 11% of their sales. But in The credit rating agency said by the end of next year Gogo the first quarter of 2020, the Thales aerospace segment will have burned $100 million of what was a $211 million that houses IFE was the hardest hit of the French com- cash pile at the start of April. pany’s divisions, due to the drop in both airline activity “We believe the company could continue to withstand a and production cuts by aircraft OEMs. near-full, global, commercial ground-stop for a few months, “The impact will be very significant, for sure, in the but the long-term viability of the business depends on the short run,” Caine told investors and analysts April 28. duration passenger volumes will be near zero and the Competitors are having a more difficult time. Gogo re- length and pace of the recovery—which is highly uncertain ported a net loss of $84.8 million for the first quarter ended at this point,” S&P credit analysts say. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COVID-19 CRISIS

Coronavirus Is a Crucible March 31, which includes charges of $46.4 million related to COVID-19 Infects Defense Industry pervisor. Another F-35 employee, who the impairment of certain long-lived assets and $6.8 million survived, broadcast a Facebook Live for IFC/IFE Businesses in additional credit loss reserves taken during the quarter. With F-35 Production Slowdown video from his hospital bed, pleading The quarterly loss was fourfold compared with a year before. with his unionized co-workers to san- > BIG DROPS REPORTED IN IFC/IFE REVENUE Tragically, the embattled company—which in recent LOCKHEED MARTIN EXPECTS 117-124 F-35 DELIVERIES IN 2020 itize their workspaces even if it is not years considered looking for a buyer—was expecting a > in their job description. > INSIDERS AND ANALYSTS HAVE SUNNY VIEW bright year at the start of the last quarter. “I am going > SECOND-HALF RAMP-UP STILL POSSIBLE The company’s management has BUT ACKNOWLEDGE DARK CLOUDS to steal a little Charles Dickens to put the quarter in per- said that the F-35 assembly line spective, and that is that the first quarter was definitely a Steve Trimble Washington adopted new protocols in response Michael Bruno Washington tale of two quarters,” Gogo CEO and President Oakleigh to the COVID-19 pandemic, which Thorne said at the start of his quarterly report. “It was his was supposed to be a rela- considers the military aircraft indus- included regularly sanitizing equip- he inflight connectivity and entertainment (IFC/IFE) the best of times in January and February and close to the tively easy year for Lockheed try an exception. Although demand ment and quarantining employees sector could take years to return to pre-COVID-19 worst of times in March.” TMartin’s F-35 production. As and domestic U.S. military spending exposed by co-workers or others to Tbusiness levels, according to a new analysis. But Unfortunately, April business results were even worse 2020 began, the stealth fighter pro- remain intact, the military aviation the virus. while the sector has followed commercial and business than in March, he continued. That was when commercial gram’s three-year growth spurt had supply chain’s links to the collapsing The COVID-19 response is not the aviation into a deep rut, analysts and executives say they air traffic dropped 95% from a year before, and 105 of 193 subsided after annual deliveries commercial aircraft market is caus- only pressure on the F-35’s production can see sunnier days ahead. airlines globally were not flying at all. Business aviation more than doubled between 2017 and ing delays. system. Lockheed exceeded the over- also was down 80%. Roughly 30% of 2019. Lockheed planned to deliver 141 “I think [military] aviation has had all delivery target by three aircraft in Gogo’s 5,700 business jet air-to-ground F-35s in 2020, only seven more than a more acute sensitivity to supplier 2019, but slower production of the less IFC REVENUE 2019 vs. 2020 Expected customer accounts cut their spending in 2019. with the IFC provider, including 940 ac- But the F-35 supply chain 0,000 20 0 $2.5 count suspensions and more than 750 is not immune from the glob- F-35 Deliveries 1 0,000 1 50 2.0 service plan downgrades. al disruption caused by the 50,000 117- 14 40 The company—which a year ago con- COVID-19 pandemic. After 134 12 1.5 124* 40,000 cluded a major restructuring—is un- signaling during a first quar- 10 0

Gbps dertaking another round of dramatic ter earnings call in April that 0,000 1.0 20 U.S. $ Billion U.S. changes to bolster its finances. Gogo a production slowdown was 20,000 91 Number of Units 4 0.5 furloughed 54% of its workforce effective likely, Lockheed confirmed 10,000 10 2 Equivalents Transponder May 4, affecting around 600 employees the impact on May 19. The 0 0 0 0.0 66 across all three of Gogo’s business seg- company issued a new fore - - U U U ments, as well as at its headquarters. cast of 117-124 F-35 deliveries 45 46 - The company applied for an $81 mil- this year. If Lockheed is unable 35 36 HTS = High-throughput satellite 2019 2020 29 FSS = Fixed-satellite service lion grant and a $150 million loan under to recover in the second half, Source: Northern Sky Research the recently enacted U.S. Coronavirus the slowdown would mark the 9 Aid, Relief, and Economic Security first year-over-year decrease A new report from Northern Sky Research sees almost (CARES) Act. If it receives funding, “it will modify the in F-35 deliveries since the 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $37 billion in cumulative IFC revenue through 2029, de - announced personnel actions to comply with the terms of program began. spite a near-term plunge due to the novel coronavirus. that assistance.” Compensation was cut for everyone else, “However, we will acceler- *Estimated Source: Lockheed Martin Overall,Source: orer the S sector eerc should see a compound annual growth including 30% for the CEO and directors on the board and ate production when we re - rate of 9.8% in the period. 20% for the rest of executive leadership. turn to pre-COVID-19 conditions and disruptions, largely driven by the mature F-35C airframe nearly caused Still, business probably will get worse before it gets bet- On May 11, executives outlined ongoing negotiations could see this number decrease,” the massive upheaval in the commer - the company to miss the annual goal. ter. “Market difficulties are likely to remain for an extended with satellite suppliers and customers to redo contract company says. cial aviation market,” said James To compensate, Lockheed moved up period” and not abate before 2022, Northern Sky acknowl- terms. They also are delaying aircraft equipment installa- The company’s new financial guid- Geurts, assistant secretary of the deliveries of four F-35As originally edges. “This is likely to occur as pandemic progression re- tions at airlines, especially those tied to older deals where ance reflects the lower F-35 delivery Navy for research, development and scheduled for 2020 to the end of 2019, sults in continued grounded aircraft and financial pressures Gogo “heavily” subsidized equipment under a previous total, with net sales for the year fall- acquisition. “Many of the aerospace allowing the company to beat the de- on airlines, OEMs ramping down aircraft production rates, business model. To play it safe, executives now are plan- ing to a range of $62.25-64 billion from companies were blended between livery target by three aircraft instead economic slowdown scenarios, and possible flying hassles ning on practically no more installations the rest of this $62.75-64.25 billion. Other large F-35 military and commercial, and with of missing it by one. and psychological resistance deterring travelers.” year. Other cutbacks include deferring capital equipment suppliers include Northrop Grumman commercial just falling through the Before the impact of the virus, the IFC and IFE providers echoed as much in recent quar- purchases and reducing spending on marketing, travel (center fuselage, radar), Raytheon floor, their abilities to stay open and F-35’s global supply chain was already terly teleconferences. “It’s an airline-related business,” and nonessentials. Technologies (engine, distributed keep their workforce has been a little strained by the three-year produc- says Thales Chairman and CEO Patrice Caine, and “will Thorne said the cost savings could save Gogo up to aper ture system) and BAE Systems bit more challenged.” tion ramp-up from 2017 to 2019. Late be affected as well by this aeronautical crisis.” $170 million in cash through the end of 2021. But S&P (aft fuselage, electronic warfare suite). Another sector Geurts is watching part deliveries jumped to 10,000 in Thales is a multi-industrial provider, so it is better suit- Global Ratings on May 12 reaffirmed its negative credit It was not immediately clear whichSource: Lockheedis the Martin market for command, control, 2019 from 2,000 in 2017, according ed to weather the downturn. IFE was an €800 million watch on Gogo, as its liquidity will remain under pressure. customers and variants would be af- communications and computers and to a May report by the Government ($878 million) business in 2019, 11% of their sales. But in The credit rating agency said by the end of next year Gogo fected by the potential shortfall of intelligence (C4I). “We’re trying to Account ability Office (GAO). Monthly the first quarter of 2020, the Thales aerospace segment will have burned $100 million of what was a $211 million 18-24 F-35 deliveries in 2020. track all of it,” he says. “But the most parts shortages, meanwhile, leaped that houses IFE was the hardest hit of the French com- cash pile at the start of April. The Defense Department is closely immediate impact we’ve seen has to 8,000 in July 2019 from 875 a year pany’s divisions, due to the drop in both airline activity “We believe the company could continue to withstand a watching the F-35, its single-largest been on aviation.” before, the GAO says. The shortages and production cuts by aircraft OEMs. near-full, global, commercial ground-stop for a few months, production system. So far, senior ac- Lockheed’s F-35 assembly line in represent a fraction of the 300,000 “The impact will be very significant, for sure, in the but the long-term viability of the business depends on the quisition officials expect the overall Fort Worth was hit hard by the COVID parts in each F-35, but the trend of- short run,” Caine told investors and analysts April 28. duration passenger volumes will be near zero and the impact of the novel coronavirus on outbreak in mid-April. One employee, fered a glimpse of the pressure on the Competitors are having a more difficult time. Gogo re- length and pace of the recovery—which is highly uncertain weapon system production to be man- Claude Daniels, died after reporting supply chain to meet demand during ported a net loss of $84.8 million for the first quarter ended at this point,” S&P credit analysts say. c ageable. But the Pentagon leadership COVID-19-related symptoms to a su- the ramp-up. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 27 DEFENSE > Slovenian-made UAS p. 30 Blackjack LEO demo p. 31 German FCAS and ethics p. 32 Air-to-air missiles p. 34 USAF Red Air p. 36 New engine competition p. 38 Russian jets in Libya p. 39 Arms control threat p. 40

U.S. AIR FORCE The latter feature offers a powerful visual image of soldiers riding into battle on the outside of an assault helicopter but is actually something SOCOM was forced to accept due to the limitations The Army’s special operators prefer a new assault aircraft that carries troops of an existing aircraft design. internally, but only one of the Army’s selections for the Future Attack Recon- For the A/MH-6M replacement, naissance Aircraft competition comes with a cabin. SOCOM has specified a requirement for an aircraft that can carry four to cial Operations Command (SOCOM) command’s virtual Special Operations six troops internally, says Geoffrey has paid dearly over the last 40 years Forces Industry Conference on May 12. Downer, SOCOM’s program executive to support extensive postproduction The 160th Regiment has already officer for rotary-wing aviation. That modifications, along with regular up- identified the Army’s Future Attack requirement creates a potential prob- grades that remain in progress. Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) as lem for SOCOM in the FARA compe- “As everyone knows, the changes the likely replacement for the Little tition as it is now defined. you make to an [aircraft] design post- Birds and the Future Long-Range “The Sikorsky [FARA] configura- production are the most expensive Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) as the obvi- tion is configured currently to carry changes you’re going to make,” says ous successor to the Black Hawk. The troops, but the Bell configuration is

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Slovenian-made UAS p. 30 Blackjack LEO demo p. 31 German FCAS and ethics p. 3233 Air-to-air missiles p. 34 Air-to-airUSAF Red missiles Air p. 36 p. 34 New USAF engine Red competition Air p. 36 p. 38 Russian jets in Libya p. 39 Arms control threat p. 40

Chinook is expected to keep flying “in- definitely,” but FARA and the FLRAA SOAR Points could replace nearly two-thirds of the 160th’s fleet over the next 20-30 years. ELITE AVIATION UNIT FLEET STRATEGY DEPENDS ON Except it may not work out that way. > Early design and acquisition strategy U.S. ARMY DECISIONS choices by the conventional Army has THE FIRST A/MH-6M BLOCK 3 IS IN ADVANCED TESTING left the special operations branch un- > certain that FARA will address the Steve Trimble Washington 160th’s requirements and that the FLRAA will arrive on time. Moreover, aving been founded two years James Smith, the acquisition execu- the Army’s decision to defer orders for after the 1979 introduction of tive for SOCOM. the CH-47F Block 2 adds to SOCOM’s Hthe Sikorsky UH-60A Black As the Army moves forward with concerns. The 160th is now the only Hawk, the U.S. Army’s elite 160th two new high-speed-rotorcraft acqui- customer over the next five years for Special Operations Aviation Regi- sition programs, its most elite aviators the Block 2 upgrades required for the ment (SOAR) came into existence see a once-in-a-generation opportunity Chinook, which may not represent with a fleet management problem. to break that hand-me-down cycle. In- enough business to sustain the indus- The Army’s premier aviation unit stead of receiving aircraft that must trial base around the program. operates a fleet of helicopters, includ- be extensively modified after rolling The ambiguity of the 160th’s ing 66 Boeing MH-47G Chinooks, 42 off assembly lines, SOCOM acquisi- fleet-replacement plans is not likely Boeing MH-60M Little Birds and 72 tion officials are seeking to build the to be resolved for at least several U.S. ARMY MH-60L/M Black Hawks, that are regiment’s unique design needs into years, so in the meantime SOCOM not,” Downer said during a teleconfer- A sticking point for an MH-60M (foreground) replacement is a design that essentially hand-me-downs. To tailor the aircraft from the beginning. is continuing to fund significant up- ence with reporters. “That provides an comes with a refueling probe, and Special Operations Command needs foreign each helicopter type to the regiment’s “So now we can make the design grade programs for the each of the interesting problem for us in the fu- orders to help keep the MH-47G Block 2 line sustainable. unique operating style—characterized changes during the design phase,” existing helicopter types. ture, where if the Army selects one of by long-range, high-speed, nap-of-the- Smith said, speaking on a teleconfer- On March 26, the Army selected the those solutions [and it is] not able to tions to the Block 3 version, the Army which is set to arrive in 2025, introduc- earth flight mostly at night—the Spe- ence call with journalists during the Bell 360 Invictus and the Sikorsky carry troops, then we might end up plans to continue operating the Little es the 3,000-shp GE Aviation T901 en- Raider X to enter a three-year compe- with a mixed fleet going forward.” Bird for 10-15 more years, he adds. gine, the Ku-band Silent Knight terrain- tition, which includes a flight demon- Sikorsky designed the compound- The 160th’s only single-engine heli- following/terrain-avoidance radar and a stration of prototypes, for the FARA coaxial Raider X with an internal cab- copter has evolved significantly over newly developed Sierra Nevada Corp. contract. The Army’s goal is to select in, which potentially meets the SOCOM nearly 40 years. The unit inherited an Degraded Visual Environment system, an aircraft capable of at least 180 kt. requirement to carry up to six troops aircraft with a two-blade rotor and a Downer says. Follow-on Block 2 and 3 to replace the armed scout role per- internally. Bell’s configuration for the 2,500-lb. maximum takeoff weight requirements also have been drafted formed by the now-retired Bell 360 Invictus, which includes a main (MTOW). The Block 2 version of the for the fleet to offset the impact of any OH-58D Kiowa Warrior. But the win- rotor augmented by a supplemen- A/MH-6M delivered after 2004 features delays in the FLRAA program. ning FARA design also will be a can- tary power unit, offers no space to a six-blade rotor and a 4,700 lb. MTOW. “Our plan is really dependent on didate for the challenging task of re- carry troops internally. It is possible The Block 3 adds performance and what the Army is doing with the Fu- placing the 160th’s fleet of A/MH-6Ms. Bell could redesign the 360 Invictus cockpit upgrades, along with newly ture Vertical Lift program and how it Featuring a compact, 27.4-ft. rotor after the prototyping phase or—re- machined airframes. The main rotor’s stays on schedule,” Downer says. “If it diameter, the Little Bird is tasked to prising the AH/UH-1 split—offer two six blades are replaced with longer, turns out that everything falls in line perform a variety of roles including airframes that share a common rotor asymmetrical and composite airfoils with the [FLRAA], then we will tran- close air support in tight urban spaces system. But either option could require for increased lift. The tail rotor and sition seamlessly into that [program]. and infiltrating teams of four special an additional investment by the Army tail rotor gearbox were moved to in- If there is an issue with the Army’s operators carried on external planks. or SOCOM at a time when defense bud- crease control authority, and a trim program, we will continue to march

U.S. AIR FORCE The latter feature offers a powerful vi- gets are expected to flatten or decline. button was added to the collective to on with future Block 2 and Block 3 sual image of soldiers riding into battle Downer also offers a third option. reduce pilot workload. The new version modifications for the MH-60 fleet.” on the outside of an assault helicopter Rather than accepting the Army’s of the A/MH-6M also features a new Seeking to avoid one of the most but is actually something SOCOM was selected FARA after 2024, SOCOM cockpit architecture called the Aviation extensive postproduction upgrades forced to accept due to the limitations could acquire a different aircraft to Management Systems (AMS), Downer for the MH-60M, SOCOM success- The Army’s special operators prefer a new assault aircraft that carries troops of an existing aircraft design. replace the A/MH-6M fleet. says. The AMS adds new displays that fully lobbied the Army to include an internally, but only one of the Army’s selections for the Future Attack Recon- For the A/MH-6M replacement, “If we require greater lift capability can show moving maps, videos and air-refueling requirement in the base- naissance Aircraft competition comes with a cabin. SOCOM has specified a requirement than that [FARA] aircraft can support, high-resolution sensor imagery. line design for the FLRAA, Downer for an aircraft that can carry four to going forward, we could look at anoth- The Army’s dueling options for says. However, the Army is not pay- cial Operations Command (SOCOM) command’s virtual Special Operations six troops internally, says Geoffrey er commercial variant of an aircraft the high-speed FLRAA require - ing to certify the air-refueling capa- has paid dearly over the last 40 years Forces Industry Conference on May 12. Downer, SOCOM’s program executive that’s a little bit larger-class aircraft ment—Bell’s V-280 Valor or the bility, so that funding would come to support extensive postproduction The 160th Regiment has already officer for rotary-wing aviation. That to do that mission,” Downer says. Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defiant—offers out of SOCOM’s acquisition budget. modifications, along with regular up- identified the Army’s Future Attack requirement creates a potential prob- The 160th faces no immedi- the natural replacement for the Black SOCOM expects to receive the first grades that remain in progress. Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) as lem for SOCOM in the FARA compe- ate replacement decisions for the Hawk fleet, but SOCOM is hedging its prototype of a special operations ver- “As everyone knows, the changes the likely replacement for the Little tition as it is now defined. A/MH-6M. A five-year-old upgrade bets with a long-term upgrade road sion of the FLRAA aircraft in 2026 you make to an [aircraft] design post- Birds and the Future Long-Range “The Sikorsky [FARA] configura- program to the Block 3 standard is set map for the fleet that performs the or 2027 to perform a user evaluation, production are the most expensive Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) as the obvi- tion is configured currently to carry to deliver the first aircraft by Septem- Direct Action Penetrator mission. which will inform decisions on any changes you’re going to make,” says ous successor to the Black Hawk. The troops, but the Bell configuration is ber, Downer says. As the fleet transi- The Block 1 version of the MH-60M, additional modifications, he says. c

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SOCOM Reveals Deployment of come tell me what type of lower costs [can be achieved], not just from a pro- Slovenian-Made UAS duction standpoint but, again, overall sustainability,” Johnson said. “You > AFRL CONVERTED PIPISTREL SINUS TO UAS can have a lower cost, but it’s got to be survivable and reliable in any en- > U-28 CREWS WILL TRANSITION TO ARMED OVERWATCH vironment we intend to work in. We’d be very interested to see what the industry has out there. I think this is a new growth area for us.” “The MQ-9 and MQ-1 are still work- horses,” she added. “But I think some complements and supplements, depending on the [geographic] area that the users are in, might need some additional capabilities.” SOCOM is expanding its UAS port- folio at the same time that it is over- hauling its fleet of manned, light aircraft for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Since 2006, Air Force Special Operations The Pipistrel Surveyor, now operated Command (AFSOC) has operated a by a U.S. special forces contractor, small fleet of about 25 U-28s, a military ISR variant of the single-engine has a 30-hr. flight endurance Pilatus PC-12. and a 30,000-ft. ceiling. It is not clear how the U-28s would operate alongside the planned fleet of Armed Overwatch aircraft, which PIPISTREL SOCOM plans to introduce into ser- Steve Trimble Washington vice as early as next year. The U-28’s official retirement date still is not new class of low-cost, long- ners to identify low-cost, high-endur- set, but Johnson confirms to Avia- endurance unmanned aerial ance airborne intelligence, surveil- tion Week that U-28 pilots and main- A systems (UAS), including a lance and reconnaissance solutions,” tenance crews will transition to the newly confirmed Slovenian-made air- a spokesman said in a statement. Armed Overwatch fleet as it arrives craft, have entered U.S. Special Op- Pipistrel, which now lists the U.S. and continuing through 2027. erations Command’s (SOCOM) fleet and Chinese air forces as customers That transition plan should ease plans, even as budget concerns arise on its website, confirms that “many the pressure on AFSOC to rapidly that complicate a proposal to use the governments, ministries and nongov- recruit and train a new cadre for new Armed Overwatch platform to ernmental agencies” have deployed the the Armed Overwatch mission, but replace the manned Pilatus U-28 fleet aircraft for surveillance missions. But it also confirms details about the re- over the next 8-10 years. the company says it cannot comment quirement for the new fleet. Unlike SOCOM reveals to Aviation Week on the details of the SOCOM operation. Air Combat Command’s desire for a that the Pipistrel Surveyor, an un- A SOCOM acquisition official light attack platform with fighter-like manned military version of the com- hinted at the Pipistrel deployment agility, AFSOC prefers an aircraft pany’s Sinus light sport aircraft, has in a public presentation on May 13 that can observe targets and deploy been deployed as part of a proof- as part of the virtual Special Oper- weapons in level flight. of-concept experiment. The Air ations Forces Industry Conference. SOCOM’s acquisition strategy Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Col. Melissa Johnson, the program sets a blistering pace for the Armed converted the Pipistrel aircraft for executive officer for fixed-wing air- Overwatch source selection process, SOCOM, installing sensors to collect craft acquisition, showed a picture but Jim Smith, the command’s acqui- full-motion video and signals intelli- of the Pipistrel aircraft on a presen- sition executive, acknowledges that gence, SOCOM says. tation slide adjacent to the MQ-1 and politics might interfere. The Armed The deployment of the contractor- MQ-9, but she did not identify the Overwatch program is officially des- operated Surveyor could be followed aircraft or describe what role it has ignated as a “new start” in the fiscal by other long-endurance UAS types in the SOCOM fleet. 2021 budget now under review by as SOCOM looks for low-cost options Johnson told the audience of indus- Congress. If lawmakers are unable to to supplement special forces’ fleets of try attendees, however, that SOCOM pass a defense appropriations bill on General Atomics Aeronautical Sys- is seeking new low-cost alternatives time, a planned flight demonstration tems MQ-1C and MQ-9 aircraft. to the MQ-1 and MQ-9 for long-endur- in November and contract award by SOCOM “plans to continue working ance surveillance missions. next April could be delayed up to a with the services and industry part- “I’m really looking for industry to year, Smith says. c

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DARPA’s Blackjack SOCOM Reveals Deployment of come tell me what type of lower costs will proliferate military [can be achieved], not just from a pro- payloads across Slovenian-Made UAS duction standpoint but, again, overall sustainability,” Johnson said. “You a constellation of commercial > AFRL CONVERTED PIPISTREL SINUS TO UAS can have a lower cost, but it’s got to be survivable and reliable in any en- satellite buses. > U-28 CREWS WILL TRANSITION TO ARMED OVERWATCH vironment we intend to work in. We’d be very interested to see what the industry has out there. I think this is a new growth area for us.” “The MQ-9 and MQ-1 are still work- horses,” she added. “But I think some complements and supplements, depending on the [geographic] area that the users are in, might need some additional capabilities.” SOCOM is expanding its UAS port- folio at the same time that it is over- hauling its fleet of manned, light aircraft for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Since 2006, Air Force Special Operations The Pipistrel Surveyor, now operated Command (AFSOC) has operated a by a U.S. special forces contractor, small fleet of about 25 U-28s, a military ISR variant of the single-engine has a 30-hr. flight endurance Pilatus PC-12. and a 30,000-ft. ceiling. It is not clear how the U-28s would operate alongside the planned fleet DARPA of Armed Overwatch aircraft, which PIPISTREL SOCOM plans to introduce into ser- launches, Mandrake 1, is a cubesat Steve Trimble Washington vice as early as next year. The U-28’s Autonomy in Orbit that will carry supercomputer pro- official retirement date still is not cessors. “We are putting some of our new class of low-cost, long- ners to identify low-cost, high-endur- set, but Johnson confirms to Avia- supercomputer, AI-enabled chips endurance unmanned aerial ance airborne intelligence, surveil- tion Week that U-28 pilots and main- > SUPERCOMPUTER CHIPS AND LASER INTERSATELLITE LINKS ARE KEY into play to show that you can have A systems (UAS), including a lance and reconnaissance solutions,” tenance crews will transition to the AUTONOMOUS CONSTELLATION DEMONSTRATION TO BEGIN IN 2022 tens of teraflops of processing capa- newly confirmed Slovenian-made air- a spokesman said in a statement. Armed Overwatch fleet as it arrives > bility on orbit,” he says. craft, have entered U.S. Special Op- Pipistrel, which now lists the U.S. and continuing through 2027. Graham Warwick Washington “It’s hard to say I’m going to devel- erations Command’s (SOCOM) fleet and Chinese air forces as customers That transition plan should ease op an algorithm that uses this huge plans, even as budget concerns arise on its website, confirms that “many the pressure on AFSOC to rapidly ARPA plans to launch a series “We figured out what size, weight processing power and put it in orbit that complicate a proposal to use the governments, ministries and nongov- recruit and train a new cadre for of risk-reduction satellites this and power will be available on those because there aren’t too many chips new Armed Overwatch platform to ernmental agencies” have deployed the the Armed Overwatch mission, but Dyear in an effort to ensure the buses for high military-utility pay- that work great in orbit, especially at replace the manned Pilatus U-28 fleet aircraft for surveillance missions. But it also confirms details about the re- success of its Blackjack program to loads across different types of mis- the cost point we need for proliferat- over the next 8-10 years. the company says it cannot comment quirement for the new fleet. Unlike tap into the commercial space mar- sions, whether it’s OPIR [overhead ed LEO, where we have a lot of low- SOCOM reveals to Aviation Week on the details of the SOCOM operation. Air Combat Command’s desire for a ket and demonstrate that low-Earth- persistent infrared], RF [radio-fre- cost payloads,” Thomas says. that the Pipistrel Surveyor, an un- A SOCOM acquisition official light attack platform with fighter-like orbit (LEO) constellations can per- quency] geolocation, tactical com- While Mandrake 1 is intended to manned military version of the com- hinted at the Pipistrel deployment agility, AFSOC prefers an aircraft form military missions as effectively munications or PNT [position, nav- show these chips will work in orbit, pany’s Sinus light sport aircraft, has in a public presentation on May 13 that can observe targets and deploy as geosynchronous satellites. igation and timing],” he says. Mandrake 2 will test the optical in- been deployed as part of a proof- as part of the virtual Special Oper- weapons in level flight. The small satellites will test in or- The goal of Blackjack is to lever- tersatellite links (OSIL) that will en- of-concept experiment. The Air ations Forces Industry Conference. SOCOM’s acquisition strategy bit the supercomputer processors, age commercial technologies to enable the Blackjack satellites to form Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Col. Melissa Johnson, the program sets a blistering pace for the Armed optical intersatellite links, onboard able a military constellation of LEO a mesh network in orbit. converted the Pipistrel aircraft for executive officer for fixed-wing air- Overwatch source selection process, artificial intelligence (AI), data fu- satellites, connected by a high-speed “If you want to get broadband con- SOCOM, installing sensors to collect craft acquisition, showed a picture but Jim Smith, the command’s acqui- sion and software-defined radios that mesh network, to be constructed and nectivity between spacecraft and not full-motion video and signals intelli- of the Pipistrel aircraft on a presen- sition executive, acknowledges that will enable autonomous LEO constel- replenished using relatively low-cost have to worry about spectrum allo- gence, SOCOM says. tation slide adjacent to the MQ-1 and politics might interfere. The Armed lations to provide resilient and per- nodes—less than $2 million per pay- cation with RF links, then lasers and The deployment of the contractor- MQ-9, but she did not identify the Overwatch program is officially des- sistent overhead coverage direct to load and under $6 million per launch. putting fiber optics into space with- operated Surveyor could be followed aircraft or describe what role it has ignated as a “new start” in the fiscal forces in combat. Phase 1 identified areas of techni- out the fiber is a good way to do it, but by other long-endurance UAS types in the SOCOM fleet. 2021 budget now under review by “In Phase 1, we intentionally went cal risk in the commercial off-the-shelf there aren’t low-cost, very reliable as SOCOM looks for low-cost options Johnson told the audience of indus- Congress. If lawmakers are unable to backward to how you might do a normal (COTS) approach. “You can put a lot optical intersatellite links available to supplement special forces’ fleets of try attendees, however, that SOCOM pass a defense appropriations bill on contract approach. We didn’t work with of processing power in space, but a lot now,” he says. General Atomics Aeronautical Sys- is seeking new low-cost alternatives time, a planned flight demonstration a big prime. We worked with individual of the COTS approaches are going to To be conducted in conjunction tems MQ-1C and MQ-9 aircraft. to the MQ-1 and MQ-9 for long-endur- in November and contract award by providers who have these commoditized have vulnerabilities in low Earth orbit with the U.S. Space Development SOCOM “plans to continue working ance surveillance missions. next April could be delayed up to a commercial buses,” says Paul “Rusty” through radiation,” Thomas says. Agency, Mandrake 2 will demonstrate with the services and industry part- “I’m really looking for industry to year, Smith says. c Thomas, DARPA program manager. The first of the risk-reduction the OSILs. “So now you have the su-

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percomputers in space, and you have ellites to be managed by only a few are looking at, with highly inclined or- the ability to provide a mesh network people on the ground. “Somewhere bits, we can provide constant custody with laser communications between around two people to watch a constel- of the ground with a small staff for the nodes,” says Thomas. lation is what our goal is day-to-day,” day-to-day operations and only con- The third risk-reduction mission, Thomas says. tingency staff to handle anomalies. Wildcard, will fl y an advanced soft- “We are not going to require the The hard part is showing we can build ware-defi ned radio that can provide ground to talk to the space layer to a constellation-level autonomy layer tactical information direct to users do the mission. The satellite oper- that operates without minute-to-min- on the ground, in the air or on ships, ations center could be under cyber ute support from the ground.” “in seconds to minutes,” he says, via or kinetic attack. You don’t want any Several sensor payloads are un- a wide range of existing and planned single point of failure on the ground der consideration for the Blackjack data links. or in space that could take out your demo: OPIR from Raytheon Tech- A fourth Phase 1 mission, Loft Or- proliferated approach,” he says. nologies; RF from Northrop Grum- bital, will demonstrate data fusion on “That terafl op Pit Boss brain will be man, Trident Systems and Systems orbit. “We want to put these brains on every node, and they will be able to & Technology Research; PNT from in space and start to put together the operate autonomously with or with- Northrop; OSIL from SA Photonics; data fusion to bring in the inputs from out human intervention as they do and electro-optical/infrared from the sensor layers, [and] maybe tip and the sensing and data fusion,” Thomas L3Harris Technologies. Small busi- cue from other systems that are not says. “With the type of formation we ness Augustus Aerospace is working in LEO,” Thomas says. Loft Orbital will demo the ability to host third-party algorithms, also called massless payloads, that can Autonomous Technology Prompts aggregate huge amounts of data from other satellites and produce a Ethical Calling for German FCAS “coherent, limited amount of tactically relevant information that we can INDEPENDENT PANEL LOOKS TO KEEP FCAS WITHIN LEGAL GUIDELINES then send directly to the warfi ghter,” > he says. > DECISION ON COMBINATION OF FIGHTER AND REMOTE CARRIERS Planned for ride-sharing launch- EXPECTED IN 2021 es this year and early in 2021, the Phase 1 risk-reduction missions will “give us confi dence in Phase 2, as we select payloads for the demo, that we have a good chance of putting them into a constellation of 10-20 satellites that we can run and not have to worry about an individual failure of a chip or an OSIL that stops us having a DAA AA successful constellation-level demo,” says Thomas. DARPA’s goal is to fl y the risk-reduction missions well before assem- The next-generation ghter is a bly, integration and test of the demo component of the FCAS, which also Tony Osborne London spacecraft begins, “so if we do have includes unmanned systems, legacy a problem, we can resolve it on the ith the European Future ghters and the combat cloud. ground before we build the fi rst two Combat Air System likely to spacecraft of the Blackjack constel- Wfeature high levels of autono- for the creation of an advanced com- lation,” he says. my and artifi cial intelligence, Germany bat aircraft and the use of unmanned For the demo, DARPA is evaluating wants to ensure those technologies remote carriers and advanced weap- commercial LEO satellite buses from are used responsibly and ethically. ons. These will all be linked together Airbus, Blue Canyon Technologies German popular opinion has long in an airborne network—a combat and Telesat, all of which are through been wary of the use of military cloud—while artificial intelligence their preliminary design reviews force—understandable given the (AI) will analyze target and mission (PDR). Final selection of the buses country’s wartime past. data to support the decisions taken will happen this year. Recent political debates, one on by the human pilot, whose task will The Pit Boss autonomous mis- the arming of unmanned air vehicles ultimately more likely be that of a sion management system that will and another on the country’s continu- mission commander. fly on every Blackjack satellite has ing role in nuclear deterrence, appear But the inclusion of such technolo- also completed its PDR at SEAKR to reinforce this. gy is prompting questions about the Engineering. The constellation-level But the Future Combat Air System level of human infl uence in the sys- on-orbit autonomy enabled by Pit (FCAS), which Germany is developing tem and concerns that it could lead Boss will allow a large number of sat- jointly with France and Spain, calls to a fl ying killing robot.

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE percomputers in space, and you have ellites to be managed by only a few are looking at, with highly inclined or- on a payload for the U.S. Army Space “Blackjack takes those commod- to the launch site quickly,” he says. the ability to provide a mesh network people on the ground. “Somewhere bits, we can provide constant custody and Missile Defense Command. itized buses and removes any equip- Commissioning of the first two with laser communications between around two people to watch a constel- of the ground with a small staff for “We had to put on contract quite a ment that talks with the commercial demonstration satellites is planned the nodes,” says Thomas. lation is what our goal is day-to-day,” day-to-day operations and only con- few payloads, almost double-digit, to user,” Thomas says. “If we can take by the end of 2021. The remainder The third risk-reduction mission, Thomas says. tingency staff to handle anomalies. look at all those various types of mis- that element out, with small changes of the constellation is to be launched Wildcard, will fl y an advanced soft- “We are not going to require the The hard part is showing we can build sions and how they would work with the to the production line, we have 50 kg beginning around mid-2022, and the ware-defi ned radio that can provide ground to talk to the space layer to a constellation-level autonomy layer buses,” Thomas says. Lockheed Martin, [110 lb.] or more of mass we can use demonstration will be completed in tactical information direct to users do the mission. The satellite oper- that operates without minute-to-min- selected as the satellite integrator for for a military-dedicated payload.” 2023. The number of satellites—be- on the ground, in the air or on ships, ations center could be under cyber ute support from the ground.” Blackjack, is working to defi ne the in- DARPA wants to minimize the tween 10 and 20—and their payloads “in seconds to minutes,” he says, via or kinetic attack. You don’t want any Several sensor payloads are un- terfaces between these payloads and changes so it can realize the cost have yet to be decided. a wide range of existing and planned single point of failure on the ground der consideration for the Blackjack the buses by the end of Phase 1. benefit of using buses that are in Thomas says the on-orbit auton- data links. or in space that could take out your demo: OPIR from Raytheon Tech- “We are looking at options to put mass production. Lockheed will set omy and networking technologies A fourth Phase 1 mission, Loft Or- proliferated approach,” he says. nologies; RF from Northrop Grum- two or three payload types on a given up an integration facility in Sunny- demonstrated by Blackjack are bital, will demonstrate data fusion on “That terafl op Pit Boss brain will be man, Trident Systems and Systems bus . . . and use di erent types of bus- vale, California, where it will receive planned to transition to a program orbit. “We want to put these brains on every node, and they will be able to & Technology Research; PNT from es for the same payload. We are work- buses without the commercial user called Casino (for Commercially in space and start to put together the operate autonomously with or with- Northrop; OSIL from SA Photonics; ing with Lockheed to put together a elements and use the open space Augmented Space Inter-Networked data fusion to bring in the inputs from out human intervention as they do and electro-optical/infrared from technology they call Slot Machine to to install the Pit Boss, payload and Operations) that has been started the sensor layers, [and] maybe tip and the sensing and data fusion,” Thomas L3Harris Technologies. Small busi- show us how the same payload can OSIL “and show how they can do by the U.S. Space Force with the Air cue from other systems that are not says. “With the type of formation we ness Augustus Aerospace is working work on di erent buses,” he says. that in a fast cycle time and get it Force Research Laboratory. c in LEO,” Thomas says. Loft Orbital will demo the ability to host third-party algorithms, also called massless payloads, that can Autonomous Technology Prompts Now, in an unusual step, Airbus values . . . including the principle of gagement or pause and wait until aggregate huge amounts of data and the Bonn, Germany-based Fraun- infringing on human dignity. If Eu- communication can be reestablished, from other satellites and produce a Ethical Calling for German FCAS hofer Institute for Communication, rope gets it right, this could be send- by which time fl eeting time-sensitive “coherent, limited amount of tactical- Information Processing and Ergo- ing an important signal to the rest of targets may have escaped? Similar ly relevant information that we can INDEPENDENT PANEL LOOKS TO KEEP FCAS WITHIN LEGAL GUIDELINES nomics have established an indepen- the world,” he added. questions are being asked by the U.S., then send directly to the warfi ghter,” > dent panel of experts who will help Findings from the forum will feed which has proved through its Have he says. > DECISION ON COMBINATION OF FIGHTER AND REMOTE CARRIERS set ethical and internationally appli- into the development of the system, Raider 2 studies that unmanned plat- Planned for ride-sharing launch- EXPECTED IN 2021 cable legal guidelines for the FCAS. Airbus FCAS Chief Engineer Thomas forms could perform a strike mission es this year and early in 2021, the “For the fi rst time Grohs told the forum. autonomously, with onboard sensors Phase 1 risk-reduction missions will in the histo- Currently, the design of the system used to identify a target and release “give us confi dence in Phase 2, as we ry of Germany, is driven by “rules of engagement weapons to strike it. select payloads for the demo, that we a major defense and concepts of operations,” influ- And will the other FCAS nations have a good chance of putting them policy project is accom- enced by technical, legal and safety follow in Germany’s footsteps? into a constellation of 10-20 satellites panied from the start by the requirements, Grohs said. “But I have Significant differences already that we can run and not have to worry intellectual struggle for the technical very limited requirements, which are exist in the operating doctrines be- about an individual failure of a chip implementation of basic ethical and driven by ethical requirements,” he tween Germany and France, and the or an OSIL that stops us having a DAA AA legal principles—ethical and legal added. One of the challenges, he sug- same goes for their approaches to the successful constellation-level demo,” compliance by design,” says profes- gested, could be the development of use of autonomy in AI and warfare. says Thomas. sor Reimund Neugebauer, president a fl exible neural network that could “The divergences between France DARPA’s goal is to fl y the risk-re- of the Fraunhofer Society. be trained about behaviors that may and Germany are amongst the most duction missions well before assem- The next-generation ghter is a The panel is calling for the human to di er among di erent users. pronounced in Europe. All of this is bly, integration and test of the demo component of the FCAS, which also remain in the loop of an FCAS engage- He said there would need to be “de- in flux. At the moment, France ap- Tony Osborne London spacecraft begins, “so if we do have includes unmanned systems, legacy ment process, even in a high-workload cisive break points” in the process of pears more open to autonomy and AI a problem, we can resolve it on the ith the European Future ghters and the combat cloud. environment, a point stressed by Brig. sensing a threat, selecting an e ect in warfare and Germany more cau- ground before we build the fi rst two Combat Air System likely to Gen. Gerald Funke, Germany’s FCAS to deal with the threat and then con- tious,” says Ulrike Franke, a military spacecraft of the Blackjack constel- Wfeature high levels of autono- for the creation of an advanced com- program leader. Germany, he says, ducting the engagement. But those technology expert with the European lation,” he says. my and artifi cial intelligence, Germany bat aircraft and the use of unmanned would not accept a “technical inter- requirements, Grohs said, still need Council on Foreign Relations. For the demo, DARPA is evaluating wants to ensure those technologies remote carriers and advanced weap- pretation that would allow a system to be “plotted out.” “One of the challenges for the commercial LEO satellite buses from are used responsibly and ethically. ons. These will all be linked together to have another human being killed Work is also underway to better un- FCAS project will be how to reconcile Airbus, Blue Canyon Technologies German popular opinion has long in an airborne network—a combat simply by computing an algorithm.” derstand the role of the human in the these positions,” she adds. and Telesat, all of which are through been wary of the use of military cloud—while artificial intelligence “Fighting at machine speed is ac- cockpit. That role will be complicated Development of the FCAS is mov- their preliminary design reviews force—understandable given the (AI) will analyze target and mission companied by a real risk of escala- by the need to operate and monitor the ing forward. In early May, the German, (PDR). Final selection of the buses country’s wartime past. data to support the decisions taken tion. So it is prudent that we keep activities performed by the remote car- French and Spanish air chiefs agreed will happen this year. Recent political debates, one on by the human pilot, whose task will humans as circuit breakers,” Frank riers rather than just fl ying the fi ghter. on the operational criteria for judging The Pit Boss autonomous mis- the arming of unmanned air vehicles ultimately more likely be that of a Sauer, a senior researcher at the Uni- Questions remain about what the planned combination and balance sion management system that will and another on the country’s continu- mission commander. versity of the Bundeswehr [German the autonomous systems would do of fi ghters and remote carriers, with fly on every Blackjack satellite has ing role in nuclear deterrence, appear But the inclusion of such technolo- Armed Forces] in Munich told a vir- when cut o from the wider network a fi nal decision expected to emerge in also completed its PDR at SEAKR to reinforce this. gy is prompting questions about the tual meeting of the panel on May 14. cloud, perhaps through jamming or mid-2021 at the conclusion of concep- Engineering. The constellation-level But the Future Combat Air System level of human infl uence in the sys- “From an ethical point of view, dele- hacking: Should they go on to com- tual studies. Demonstrators of the fu- on-orbit autonomy enabled by Pit (FCAS), which Germany is developing tem and concerns that it could lead gating kill decisions is unacceptable plete the mission with their original ture fi ghter, its engine and the remote Boss will allow a large number of sat- jointly with France and Spain, calls to a fl ying killing robot. and goes against fundamental human instructions based on rules of en- carriers will take to the air in 2026. c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 33 DEFENSE

greater the range of your weapon, the fewer platforms you need to control the REACHING OUT same amount of airspace.” That desire for greater range is > AIR-TO-AIR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITIES HAVE arguably having a profound influence PROLIFERATED IN THE LAST 25 YEARS on the evolution of beyond- visual-range air-to-air missiles. > NEW TECH TAPPED TO DRIVE UP PROBABILITY OF KILL Modern fighters are capable of high-performance maneuvering, so Tony Osborne London any missile developed to defeat them must be able to maneuver in the final THE MODERN AERIAL been joined by China, India, Japan, moments of the engagement. So the PART engagement is a compli- South Africa and Turkey. aim of missile engineers is to increase 1 OF 2 cated, high-stress envi- Traditionally, development has fo- the weapon’s probability of kill (PK). ronment. In a modern air cused on long- or short-range weapons, The higher the PK, the fewer missiles battle, speed is life and range essen- but these delineations have blurred in will have to carried. PK is directly in- tial. With fighters converging at up to recent years. The ramjet-powered fluenced by probability of fuse (PF), the 20 mi./min., there is little time to react. MBDA Meteor and the Chinese PL-15 activation of the weapon fuse when it Pilots must examine the air picture, have readjusted the view of what is hits or gets close enough to the target to develop a target plan and sort potential long-range, meeting and potential- activate. The probability of guide (PG) targets between his wingmen while si- ly exceeding the performance of the also influences how the weapon will find multaneously trying to understand the AIM-54 Phoenix missile that equipped its way to the target. PF can be heavily vulnerability of their foes. the Grumman F-14 Tomcat. Some with- influenced by the weapon’s ability to re- Long before the missile is unleashed in-visual-range weapons such as the act to maneuvering by the target. from the rail, it will have been shaped MBDA Advanced Short-Range Air- PK can also be enhanced through not only by the threats it will face but to-Air Missile (Asraam) and French the use of stealth. Low observability by the fleet size of the fighter to which Mica, can now comfortably reach into can help a fighter close in on its tar- it will be fitted—and even the weapon the medium-range realm, while others get and fire from much shorter ranges that came before it. such as the Raytheon AIM-9X and than its nonstealthy counterparts—but Air-to-air missiles have come a long Israeli Rafael Python 5 are highly agile it is also compromised because it car- way since the first iterations of the U.S. dogfighting missiles. ries fewer weapons in its bays. The air-to-air missile’s biggest foe is physics. The higher its speed, the better chance it has of maneuvering with its small control surfaces. But once its propellent is used up and the motor burns out, air resistance begins to slow it down. Extending range or boosting energy has prompted investment in the development of new propellants, dual pulse motors that can provide a kick in the final moments of flight and adjusted flight profiles. In the case of MBDA’s Meteor, a throttleable ramjet keeps the missile propelled to the end game; its true range is classified. PK can also be influenced by firing more than one missile, or even salvos, at a target. Russian doctrine for example, according to Justin Bronk, an Low-observable fighters such as the Lockheed Martin F-35, pictured launching airpower and technology research fel- an AIM-120 Amraam, can increase PK by getting close to their targets, but they low at the London-based Royal United are compromised because they carry fewer weapons in their bays. Services Institute, calls for the firing of multiple missiles with different seeker Sidewinder were developed by the U.S. Regardless of your role as either heads at a target to increase the PK. Navy in the 1950s. Advances in seekers, aggressor or defender, range is a nec- “The Russians want to be able to warheads, fusing and propulsion have essary ingredient of the modern aerial fire 3-6 missiles with a mix of seeker transformed performance and range, engagement. Distance provides safety types at a single target, which is why and the technology has proliferated. for the fighter and more opportunities aircraft like the [Sukhoi] Su-27 are able About 15 countries can now claim in- to reengage if a missile fails. to carry 10-12 missiles,” Bronk notes. digenous development. France, Israel, “You want to control the airspace In the salvo will be infrared-guided, Russia, the UK and U.S., all pioneers of you are operating in,” explains an in- radio- frequency (RF)-guided and an-

MASTER SGT. MICHAEL JACKSON/U.S. AIR FORCE MICHAEL JACKSON/U.S. MASTER SGT. air-to-air missile technology, have now dustry air-to-air missile expert. “The ti-radiation guided missiles, the latter

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE greater the range of your weapon, the able to home in on jamming signals, that can get close to the target could range weapons because their targets fewer platforms you need to control the challenging the defending aircraft to use a smaller warhead to achieve the are often small UAVs and cruise mis- REACHING OUT same amount of airspace.” tackle all three. same effect. sile type threats,” says Bronk. “They That desire for greater range is In the West an RF or radar-seeker While a fighter pilot will generally need good performance against small ”.AIR-TO-AIR WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITIES HAVE arguably having a profound influence is preferred for long-range engage- prefer to engage from range, there will targets flying low < PROLIFERATED IN THE LAST 25 YEARS on the evolution of beyond- visual-range ments because of the all-weather per- likely always be a need to engage targets Dogfighting presents its own dan- air-to-air missiles. formance of the sensor. After all, the in the within-visual-range arena. Such gers. In entering one-on-one combat, > NEW TECH TAPPED TO DRIVE UP PROBABILITY OF KILL Modern fighters are capable of pilot has no idea what the weather is scenarios pose greater risks, as they each pilot is trying to gain the upper high-performance maneuvering, so like at the other end of the engagement. bring the enemy aircraft into closer hand in a minimum-range fight. “Your Tony Osborne London any missile developed to defeat them Before the introduction of Raytheon’s proximity. Shorter-range air-to-air mis- situation awareness decreases to that must be able to maneuver in the final Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air siles are generally equipped with infra- opponent. This is the highest risk,” says THE MODERN AERIAL been joined by China, India, Japan, moments of the engagement. So the Missile (Amraam), its predecessors red seekers, giving additional spectrum the former Royal Air Force pilot. “You PART engagement is a compli- South Africa and Turkey. aim of missile engineers is to increase such as the Italian Aspide, British options for the fighter and providing are either going to run out of fuel or get ”.OF 2 cated, high-stress envi- Traditionally, development has fo- the weapon’s probability of kill (PK). Skyflash and U.S. Sparrow used semi- some redundancy for RF-guided weap- shot down by [the enemy’s] wingman 1 ronment. In a modern air cused on long- or short-range weapons, The higher the PK, the fewer missiles active seekers, relying on the launching ons in the event of a system failure. While combat aircraft such as the battle, speed is life and range essen- but these delineations have blurred in will have to carried. PK is directly in- fighter to keep pointing its radar at the tial. With fighters converging at up to recent years. The ramjet-powered fluenced by probability of fuse (PF), the target aircraft. The missile would then .mi./min., there is little time to react. MBDA Meteor and the Chinese PL-15 activation of the weapon fuse when it home in on the reflected returns 20 Pilots must examine the air picture, have readjusted the view of what is hits or gets close enough to the target to The use of active seekers such as develop a target plan and sort potential long-range, meeting and potential- activate. The probability of guide (PG) that on the AIM-120 Amraam and targets between his wingmen while si- ly exceeding the performance of the also influences how the weapon will find increasingly active, electronically multaneously trying to understand the AIM-54 Phoenix missile that equipped its way to the target. PF can be heavily scanned arrays like on the Japanese vulnerability of their foes. the Grumman F-14 Tomcat. Some with- influenced by the weapon’s ability to re- AAM-4B, means the launching aircraft Long before the missile is unleashed in-visual-range weapons such as the act to maneuvering by the target. can turn away from the target once the from the rail, it will have been shaped MBDA Advanced Short-Range Air- PK can also be enhanced through weapon is active, and the pilot can then not only by the threats it will face but to-Air Missile (Asraam) and French the use of stealth. Low observability turn his attention to another target. by the fleet size of the fighter to which Mica, can now comfortably reach into can help a fighter close in on its tar- Increasingly, fighters can communi- it will be fitted—and even the weapon the medium-range realm, while others get and fire from much shorter ranges cate with their weapon inflight through that came before it. such as the Raytheon AIM-9X and than its nonstealthy counterparts—but data links, allowing the aircraft’s radar Air-to-air missiles have come a long Israeli Rafael Python 5 are highly agile it is also compromised because it car- to update the weapon’s radar on the po- way since the first iterations of the U.S. dogfighting missiles. ries fewer weapons in its bays. sition of the target. This may happen The air-to-air missile’s biggest foe is several times during an engagement, physics. The higher its speed, the bet- but this bond between fighter and ter chance it has of maneuvering with radar is cut once the aircraft turns MBDA’s Asraam was developed to operate in the transition range between its small control surfaces. But once its away, a process known crudely by some the beyond-visual-range and within-visual-range regimes. It is used by propellent is used up and the motor pilots as the “snip.” Australia, India and the UK. burns out, air resistance begins to slow Some data links are one-way only, it down. Extending range or boosting but Western OEMs are increasingly There are two approaches to the F-14 were built around the Phoenix GEOFF LEE/MBDA energy has prompted investment in adopting two-way systems, allowing the within-visual-range regime. Weapons missile and a specific threat—tackling the development of new propellants, missile to send data back to the pilot, such as the British Asraam, the French Soviet long-range bombers over the dual pulse motors that can provide a helping the pilot understand the weap- Mica and more recently the South Afri- Atlantic—the longevity of fighters to- kick in the final moments of flight and on’s status, whether it is working or if can A-Darter have focused on engaging day means they will be integrated with adjusted flight profiles. In the case of there is a need to deploy more of them. aircraft in the transition from beyond several missile types throughout their MBDA’s Meteor, a throttleable ramjet Missile manufacturers employ a visual range to within visual range. All operational life. But the cost of integra- keeps the missile propelled to the end range of fusing techniques, but on three use large rocket motors and pro- tion, often in part due to complex flight game; its true range is classified. longer-range weapons will often use pellent loads to accelerate the missile control systems, means that increas- PK can also be influenced by firing RF-sensing fuses for the same rea- quickly off the rail to score the kill be- ingly the shape of these more capable more than one missile, or even salvos, son they use RF-seekers: because the fore a dogfight situation occurs. Such weapons is being predicated on that of at a target. Russian doctrine for ex- conditions at the target are uncertain. quick reaction times are often possible their predecessors. ample, according to Justin Bronk, an Few missiles are hit-to-kill; instead the due to onboard systems such as batter- The Eurofighter Typhoon, for exam- Low-observable fighters such as the Lockheed Martin F-35, pictured launching airpower and technology research fel- fusing triggers blast fragmentation ies to prime the seeker head. ple, features semirecessed missile sta- an AIM-120 Amraam, can increase PK by getting close to their targets, but they low at the London-based Royal United warheads that pepper the target with A look at the PL-10 missile suggests tions that were sized for the Amraam. are compromised because they carry fewer weapons in their bays. Services Institute, calls for the firing of shrapnel, damaging fragile parts of the the Chinese may have taken a similar That constraint limited the dimensions multiple missiles with different seeker aircraft. approach, missile experts indicate. of the MBDA Meteor, while in France Sidewinder were developed by the U.S. Regardless of your role as either heads at a target to increase the PK. Other missiles make use of contin- Weapons such as the AIM-9X and the new Mica NG is being developed Navy in the 1950s. Advances in seekers, aggressor or defender, range is a nec- “The Russians want to be able to uously expanding rod warheads that the Python family of missiles are con- to keep to the same aerodynamic mass warheads, fusing and propulsion have essary ingredient of the modern aerial fire 3-6 missiles with a mix of seeker once detonated expand rapidly into sidered more close-in dogfight weap- and center of gravity as the current transformed performance and range, engagement. Distance provides safety types at a single target, which is why a ring pattern and create damage ons. Such weapons use their control version. The Lockheed Martin AIM- and the technology has proliferated. for the fighter and more opportunities aircraft like the [Sukhoi] Su-27 are able through a cutting action that can slice surfaces and systems such as thrust 260 currently under development is About 15 countries can now claim in- to reengage if a missile fails. to carry 10-12 missiles,” Bronk notes. through control surfaces. Warhead size vectoring to achieve high agility against expected to keep a similar form factor digenous development. France, Israel, “You want to control the airspace In the salvo will be infrared-guided, can have a significant influence on PK: maneuvering targets. to the AIM-120, U.S. Air Force officials Russia, the UK and U.S., all pioneers of you are operating in,” explains an in- radio- frequency (RF)-guided and an- Some weapons are equipped with large “Israel tends to prioritize agility and have said, in part to support its fitment c

MASTER SGT. MICHAEL JACKSON/U.S. AIR FORCE MICHAEL JACKSON/U.S. MASTER SGT. air-to-air missile technology, have now dustry air-to-air missile expert. “The ti-radiation guided missiles, the latter warheads, but maneuverable missiles seeker performance for their shorter- into the bay of the F-22 Raptor.

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 35 DEFENSE

Red Air Rumble source allocations, partnerships with other U.S. armed services and with al- Lee Hudson Washington lies, and its use of industry-contracted services. After the Air Force determined its adversary air enterprise could use contractor support, the service dis- closed which aircraft attributes are most coveted at its various bases,

Draken employees signaled a 58th Fighter Sqdn. hand sign as an L-159 Honeybadger taxied the ightline. EO AMA AD OOD/ A FOE to help industry make informed decisions when bidding on task orders. At Nellis, the service is weighing active and passive detection as the top attributes. Active and passive detection are more important than aircraft The U.S. Air Force is signi cantly expanding its contractor adversary turn, speed and altitude; however, air services so that military ghter pilots can focus on their speed and altitude performance are primary mission and hone their electronic warfare skills. substantially more important than turn performance to support visual-range employment. HISTORICALLY, THE AIR FORCE HAS funding levels, will determine future In 2015, Draken secured an adver- kept its adversary air capability CAF/CAS operations.” sary air support contract with the Air in-house. But in times of declining The prospective operating loca- Force at Nellis to fly Douglas A-4K defense budgets, it began to turn to tions include Eglin AFB, Florida; Skyhawk and Aero Vodochody L-159E industry for support because com- Holloman AFB, New Mexico; Kelly ALCA fi ghters outfi tted with modern panies o ered the service at a lower Field, Texas; Kingsley Field ANGB, radars and electronic attack pods. price point. Oregon; Luke AFB, Arizona; Nellis That was the fi rst time the Air Force In 2019, Air Combat Command AFB, Nevada; and Seymour Johnson used commercial adversary support, (ACC) awarded fi ve-year contracts, AFB, North Carolina. and the idea was to support the weap- with options to extend an additional “Sortie support quantities at each ons school. In June 2018, Draken was fi ve years, to seven companies, allow- operating location are calculated on awarded another contract to perform ing those vendors to bid on specifi c the current requirement from the the adversary air work through De- task orders for the Combat Air Force user and have already been factored cember 2023. The company has in- (CAF) Contracted Air Support (CAS) troduced Dassault Mirage F1s into program. Bids were due for the fi rst Draken International: L-159 the mix at Nellis and now operates 30 round of awards on March aircraft at the base, making it the larg- 31 for a total of est fl ying organization there. six bases, and the Draken can support up to 10 bases Air Force anticipates under the Nellis contract. To date, the announcing the winners company has supported Davis-Mon- imminently. than, Arizona; Eglin; Eielson, Alaska;

Air USA, Airborne Tactical Advan- DAE EAOAL Hill, Utah; Holloman; Kingsley Field; tage Co. (ATAC), Blue Air Training, Luke; Mountain Home, Idaho; and Coastal Defense, Draken International, in to the base year execution plan,” Seymour Johnson AFBs. Once the Tactical Air Support and Top Aces Garton explains. agreement expires, the service may Corp. are the only potential awardees. Contracting adversary air support is decide to compete the Nellis work “In accordance with ACC’s prior- not new for the U.S. military. The Navy under the CAF/CAS contract. ities to support fi ghter pilot produc- pioneered the concept for the Defense The service considers passive detection, all selected operating locations Department, opening the door for the tion the top attribute for supporting encompass a majority of the fourth- other services. Section 350 of the 2017 fi fth-generation fi ghter training units and fifth-generation fighter aircraft National Defense Authorization Act di- at Eglin and Tyndall AFBs, Florida, Formal Training Units (FTU),” Air rected the Air Force chief of sta to de- and fi fth-generation operational units Force spokeswoman Leah Garton told velop a plan for an “improved and dedi- at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia; Aviation Week in a May 18 statement. cated adversary air training enterprise.” Hickam AFB, Hawaii; and Hill AFB, “Warfighter requirements as [they The law requires the Air Force to Utah. The Air Force weights active pertain] to bolstering production demonstrate commitment to the en- detection as more important than air- and readiness, along with anticipated deavor through its policy decisions, re- craft turn, speed and altitude. These

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Tactical Air Support: F-5 support. The company has 25 F-5s, a with ACC, Top Aces, has an extensive Red Air Rumble source allocations, partnerships with mix of CF-5Ds, Es and Fs providing overseas presence in Canada and Ger- other U.S. armed services and with al- fourth-generation adversary air con- many and was previously conducting Lee Hudson Washington lies, and its use of industry-contracted tract services for the Navy at NAS work for Australia. Top Aces has a services. Fallon, Nevada. The company is signed sale agreement for 29 F-16s After the Air Force determined its also supplying close air sup- and is in the final stages of getting adversary air enterprise could use port under contract for the third-party transfer approval from contractor support, the service dis- Marine Corps. the State Department. The company closed which aircraft attributes are Tactical Air Sup- invested $7 million for structural up- most coveted at its various bases, TACTICAL AIR SUPPORT INC. port is modifying its fleet of F-5s with grades and avionics improvements bases rank speed and altitude higher modern avionics to meet both ACC to make sure the jets are up and run- Draken employees signaled a 58th than turn performance to support be- and Navy requirements at its facility in ning once they arrive in the U.S., Russ Fighter Sqdn. hand sign as an L-159 yond-visual-range employment. Reno, Nevada. For example, the com- Quinn, Top Aces Corp. president tells Honeybadger taxied the ightline. For fourth-generation fighter train- pany is installing the Garmin G3000 Aviation Week. EO AMA AD OOD/ A FOE ing units at Holloman, Kelly Field, integrated flight deck that fuses data The plan is to load the F-16s into an to help industry make informed de- Kingsley, Luke, Seymour Johnson and onto a display similar to those of the aircraft and fly them to the U.S. for cisions when bidding on task orders. Davis-Monthan, the top attribute is F-22 and F-35, Mick Guthals, ACC the open mission system architecture At Nellis, the service is weighing ac- active detection, which is considered CAF/CAS program manager at Tac- work, Quinn says. tive and passive detection as the top more important than aircraft turn, tical Air Support tells Aviation Week. Illinois-based Air USA has reached attributes. Active and passive detec- speed and altitude. Aircraft turn, an agreement with Australia to pur- tion are more important than aircraft speed and altitude are all more import- chase its remaining 46 F/A-18 A/B Airborne Tactical Advantage: The U.S. Air Force is signi cantly expanding its contractor adversary turn, speed and altitude; however, ant than passive detection to support Hornets. The Hornet will be retired air services so that military ghter pilots can focus on their speed and altitude performance are air combat maneuvering training. Mirage F1 from the Royal Australian primary mission and hone their electronic warfare skills. substantially more important than The Air Force defines active de - Air Force by turn performance to support visu- tection as the ability to track “Blue” the end of al-range employment. aircraft at beyond visual range with 2021 to make HISTORICALLY, THE AIR FORCE HAS funding levels, will determine future In 2015, Draken secured an adver- a radar, but the company must also room for the F-35A. kept its adversary air capability CAF/CAS operations.” sary air support contract with the Air provide an emitter that replicates and The company did not respond in-house. But in times of declining The prospective operating loca- Force at Nellis to fly Douglas A-4K substitutes for radar capability. to a request for comment. It remains defense budgets, it began to turn to tions include Eglin AFB, Florida; Skyhawk and Aero Vodochody L-159E For the CAS part of the equation, ATAC unknown how Air USA would import industry for support because com- Holloman AFB, New Mexico; Kelly ALCA fi ghters outfi tted with modern the Air Force determined that tactical- In 2017, ATAC purchased Mirage F-1 and modify the F/A-18s within the CAF/ panies o ered the service at a lower Field, Texas; Kingsley Field ANGB, radars and electronic attack pods. ly relevant aircraft include Aero L-39, aircraft that it put forward for the ACC CAS contract’s 12-month window. price point. Oregon; Luke AFB, Arizona; Nellis That was the fi rst time the Air Force L59 and L-159E; Aermacchi MB-339; adversary air support competition. The ACC’s CAF/CAS contract is not In 2019, Air Combat Command AFB, Nevada; and Seymour Johnson used commercial adversary support, BAE 167 Strikemaster; Dassault Mi- The company is partnered with anoth- the only Air Force adversary air sup- (ACC) awarded fi ve-year contracts, AFB, North Carolina. and the idea was to support the weap- rage F1; Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jet; er vendor to offer A-27s for the CAS port contract on the horizon. The ser- with options to extend an additional “Sortie support quantities at each ons school. In June 2018, Draken was Embraer A-29, IAR-823; McDonnell portion of the contract because Air vice is exploring future industry oppor- fi ve years, to seven companies, allow- operating location are calculated on awarded another contract to perform Douglas A-4 Skyhawk; North Ameri- Force Special Operations Command tunities in the adversary air space. U.S. ing those vendors to bid on specifi c the current requirement from the the adversary air work through De- can Rockwell OV-10; Leonardo SF-260; has “gravitated a bit toward the A-29, Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) is con- task orders for the Combat Air Force user and have already been factored cember 2023. The company has in- Textron AT-6; and Shorts Tucano. and we think that the A-27 provides ducting market research for adversary (CAF) Contracted Air Support (CAS) troduced Dassault Mirage F1s into “The government’s intent is not to air support requirements at multiple program. Bids were due for the fi rst Draken International: L-159 the mix at Nellis and now operates 30 replicate fielded [Defense Top Aces: F-16 locations in the area of responsibility. round of awards on March aircraft at the base, making it the larg- Department] Aviation Week confirmed four of 31 for a total of est fl ying organization there. platforms, only the companies participating in the six bases, and the Draken can support up to 10 bases air-to-ground ca- CAF/CAS contract are interested in Air Force anticipates under the Nellis contract. To date, the pability to fulfill a train- supporting the Air Force with ad- announcing the winners company has supported Davis-Mon- ing gap for ground personnel,” the versary air services in Europe. The imminently. than, Arizona; Eglin; Eielson, Alaska; solicitation states. remaining three companies did not

Air USA, Airborne Tactical Advan- DAE EAOAL Hill, Utah; Holloman; Kingsley Field; Once the Air Force awards the ini- respond to a request for an interview. tage Co. (ATAC), Blue Air Training, Luke; Mountain Home, Idaho; and tial round of task orders, companies The call to industry is intended to Coastal Defense, Draken International, in to the base year execution plan,” Seymour Johnson AFBs. Once the will have 12 months to begin adver- inform a performance work state -

Tactical Air Support and Top Aces Garton explains. agreement expires, the service may sary air support. TOP ACES ment for USAFE. The government Corp. are the only potential awardees. Contracting adversary air support is decide to compete the Nellis work “The Air Force need is immediate, anticipates the requirement will be “In accordance with ACC’s prior- not new for the U.S. military. The Navy under the CAF/CAS contract. [and] we have the resources to con- a nice capability,” Michael “Moses” planned for up to five years: one base ities to support fi ghter pilot produc- pioneered the concept for the Defense The service considers passive detec- tinue supporting all of these different Thompson, Air Force programs senior year and four option years. tion, all selected operating locations Department, opening the door for the tion the top attribute for supporting bases depending on who wins and how manager at ATAC tells Aviation Week. “The contractor’s responsibilities encompass a majority of the fourth- other services. Section 350 of the 2017 fi fth-generation fi ghter training units long it takes them to get mobilized and ATAC has an extensive history shall consist of operations, mainte- and fifth-generation fighter aircraft National Defense Authorization Act di- at Eglin and Tyndall AFBs, Florida, set up,” Scott “Kidd” Poteet, Air Force supporting the Navy with adversary nance and performance of tactically Formal Training Units (FTU),” Air rected the Air Force chief of sta to de- and fi fth-generation operational units programs director at Draken tells Avi- air services but was underbid by Tac- relevant aircraft for air-to-air track- Force spokeswoman Leah Garton told velop a plan for an “improved and dedi- at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia; ation Week. Draken submitted bids for tical Air Support in the latest round ing, targeting, and adversary air sup- Aviation Week in a May 18 statement. cated adversary air training enterprise.” Hickam AFB, Hawaii; and Hill AFB, all six task orders, he adds. of the competition, which ended with port operations, to include equipment “Warfighter requirements as [they The law requires the Air Force to Utah. The Air Force weights active Another company bidding on the the Government Accountability Office systems that interface with various pertain] to bolstering production demonstrate commitment to the en- detection as more important than air- task orders, Tactical Air Support, denying the company’s bid protest. platforms and ground force person- and readiness, along with anticipated deavor through its policy decisions, re- craft turn, speed and altitude. These supplies the Navy with adversary air Another company vying for work nel,” the notice says. c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 37 DEFENSE

U.S. Air Force Moves Put gram. We have a very viable engine.” In response to the sole-source de- 1,000 Engines Up for Grabs cision, Pratt submitted a capabilities statement to the Air Force about the > F-15EX PROGRAM STARTS MARKET RESEARCH ON F100 F100 and filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office in > SOURCE SELECTION PHASE STARTS FOR B-52 REENGINING hopes of forcing a competition. Ulti- mately, the Air Force decided to meet Steve Trimble Washington Pratt halfway. The GAO dismissed the company’s complaint in March, ore than 1,000 military en- The first F-15QA and the Air Force has launched a gines could be in competi- prototype completed market research study. The first lot Mtion after two recent moves a first flight in April, of engines for eight F-15EX fighters by U.S. Air Force acquisition officials. procured in Lot 1 will be awarded to with GE F110 engines Facing legal pressure from Pratt GE, but the study will consider the & Whitney, the Air Force agreed to powering a readiness of the F100 to compete for perform a market survey for engine vertical climb future production lots. options to power the Boeing F-15EX on takeoff. “We believe that a fair opportunity after the first production lot, which to compete is the best thing for the potentially opens the door to a com- warfighter,” says Kinda Eastwood, petition between Pratt’s F100-PW-229 Pratt’s executive director for inte - and the GE Aviation F110-GE-129. grated customer solutions. The Air Force also initiated the By contrast, a healthy competition second phase of a source selection is underway for the B-52 CERP process for the B-52 Commercial En- contract. Four engines—GE’s gine Replacement Program (CERP), CF34-10 and Passport which seeks to acquire 608 modern powerplants, Pratt’s turbofans and spares to replace the PW800 and the Rolls- aging Pratt TF33 on each of the Royce BR.725, which eight-engine bombers over the is marketed to the Air next 15 years. Force as the F130—are In a U.S. military avia- competing for the order. All tion market with few three companies submitted orders up for grabs, virtual prototypes of the engines engine manufac- and completed an integration risk turers GE, Pratt analysis with Boeing in Phase 1 of the and Rolls-Royce competition. The Air Force now has are entering what initiated the Phase 2 source selection could be an indus- process, with final bids due in July. try-defining period of The Air Force prizes bids that can competition. Pratt has a BOEING deliver more fuel efficiency than the clear lead over its rival minimum requirement, with pric- with sole-source posi- ing credits worth up to $375 million tions as the propulsion available for more fuel-efficient en- supplier for the Air Force’s gines. Pricing credits worth up to Lockheed Martin F-35A fight- $125 million also are available for er, Northrop Grumman B-21 bomber engines that exceed the Air Force’s and Boeing KC-46 tanker. But Pratt’s threshold requirement for unsched- competitors have scored major wins major updates for the F-15EX, which uled engine removals. in the last two years with the GE comprise a fly-by-wire control system The challenge will be to adapt a F404 selected to power the Boeing and a redesigned wing. modern engine to the mounts, pylon T-7A trainer and Rolls’ AE3007 set Pratt still struggled to decide how structure and avionics of the B-52. to be installed on the Navy’s Boeing to react after the Air Force published By selecting an eight- rather than MQ-25As. a notice of intent in late January to a four-engine replacement config- Seeking to introduce the F-15EX as award the sole-source engine con- uration, the Air Force minimized quickly as possible and replace aging tract to GE. “There were some long changes to the wing structure and F-15Cs, the Air Force initially decid- days in February and late January the need to adapt the rudder to over- ed to forgo a competition for the en- when we were trying to decide if this come greater adverse yaw caused by gine. Although Pratt’s F100-PW-220 is something that we want to pro - an outboard engine failure. But the and -229 are the only powerplants test,” says Mark Beierle, Pratt’s F100 introduction of modern engines with on the Air Force’s F-15E fleet today, program director. “But you just want full-authority digital engine controls GE’s F110 is the only engine qualified to be a part of the competition. We has driven a requirement to update on a configuration that includes two think we have a legacy with the pro- the avionics displays in the cockpit. c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

U.S. Air Force Moves Put gram. We have a very viable engine.” Libya’s Little Green Jets grated air defense system to the country, complicating the In response to the sole-source de- already congested military airspace. 1,000 Engines Up for Grabs cision, Pratt submitted a capabilities RUSSIAN JETS REPAINTED TO HIDE THEIR ORIGIN Haftar’s forces have already managed to secure access to statement to the Air Force about the > Pantsir self-propelled air defense systems, likely supplied > F-15EX PROGRAM STARTS MARKET RESEARCH ON F100 F100 and filed a protest with the > AFRICOM BELIEVES MIG-29s AND SU-24s IN LIBYA by the UAE. According to Africom, the Pantsirs are likely Government Accountability Office in ARE BEING FLOWN BY MERCENARIES operated by the Wagner Group, a Russian private military > SOURCE SELECTION PHASE STARTS FOR B-52 REENGINING hopes of forcing a competition. Ulti- contractor that Moscow may be using to conceal its role in mately, the Air Force decided to meet Tony Osborne London and Steve Trimble Washington the conflict. Wagner’s operatives will probably operate the Steve Trimble Washington Pratt halfway. The GAO dismissed fighters, too, Africom asserts. the company’s complaint in March, he arrival of Russian combat aircraft in Libya is Deployment of the fighters was likely prompted by re- ore than 1,000 military en- The first F-15QA and the Air Force has launched a prompting concerns of an escalation in the battle for cent successes on the battlefield for GNA forces. The LNA, gines could be in competi- prototype completed market research study. The first lot Tcontrol of the bloodied North African state. while already in control of much of Libya, had come close Mtion after two recent moves a first flight in April, of engines for eight F-15EX fighters The U.S. fears that advanced ground-based air defens- to seizing control of the capital, Tripoli, earlier this year by U.S. Air Force acquisition officials. procured in Lot 1 will be awarded to es could be next to arrive as tensions ratchet up between but was forced to pull back after Turkey intensified its with GE F110 engines Facing legal pressure from Pratt GE, but the study will consider the the internationally recognized Government of National support of the GNA. powering a

& Whitney, the Air Force agreed to readiness of the F100 to compete for Accord (GNA) and the Lib- U.S. AFRICA COMMAND perform a market survey for engine vertical climb future production lots. yan National Army (LNA) options to power the Boeing F-15EX on takeoff. “We believe that a fair opportunity led by Field Marshal Khalifa after the first production lot, which to compete is the best thing for the Haftar and backed by Egypt, potentially opens the door to a com- warfighter,” says Kinda Eastwood, Russia and the United Arab petition between Pratt’s F100-PW-229 Pratt’s executive director for inte - Emirates (UAE). and the GE Aviation F110-GE-129. grated customer solutions. Open-source intelligence The Air Force also initiated the By contrast, a healthy competition and commercially available second phase of a source selection is underway for the B-52 CERP satellite imagery revealed process for the B-52 Commercial En- contract. Four engines—GE’s that MiG-29 “Fulcrum” gine Replacement Program (CERP), CF34-10 and Passport fighters and Sukhoi Su-24 which seeks to acquire 608 modern powerplants, Pratt’s “Fencer” fighter-bombers turbofans and spares to replace the PW800 and the Rolls- transited from Syria to aging Pratt TF33 on each of the Royce BR.725, which Libya around May 18, with eight-engine bombers over the is marketed to the Air the MiG-29s landing at the next 15 years. Force as the F130—are LNA- controlled Al-Jufrah In a U.S. military avia- competing for the order. All Air Base, some 140 mi. tion market with few three companies submitted southwest of the Libyan orders up for grabs, virtual prototypes of the engines city of Sirte. The images engine manufac- and completed an integration risk showed one of the MiG-29s turers GE, Pratt analysis with Boeing in Phase 1 of the being towed along a taxiway and Rolls-Royce competition. The Air Force now has following its arrival. This early-model MiG-29, with Russian national markings are entering what initiated the Phase 2 source selection Both sides have used aircraft that formed part of the scrubbed, is one of four caught by U.S. forces en route could be an indus- process, with final bids due in July. Libyan Air Force’s inventory, but because the MiG-29 was from Syria to Libya in May. try-defining period of The Air Force prizes bids that can never previously flown by Libya, the type’s presence is con- competition. Pratt has a BOEING deliver more fuel efficiency than the siderably more conspicuous. Suspicions were finally con- In May, the GNA captured the strategically important clear lead over its rival minimum requirement, with pric- firmed when U.S. Africa Command (Africom) released its Al-Watiya Air Base, while an air campaign by Turkish- with sole-source posi- ing credits worth up to $375 million own imagery of the Russian fighters en route to Libya on oper ated Bayraktar TB2 armed unmanned aerial systems tions as the propulsion available for more fuel-efficient en- May 26. As many as 14 aircraft may have been delivered to destroyed as many as nine Pantsirs in 72 hr., according to supplier for the Air Force’s gines. Pricing credits worth up to Libya, Africom sources tell Aviation Week. the Clash Report, a social media news outlet with ties to Lockheed Martin F-35A fight- $125 million also are available for “For too long, Russia has denied the full extent of its in- Turkey. The GNA’s gains prompted Haftar to announce his er, Northrop Grumman B-21 bomber engines that exceed the Air Force’s volvement in the ongoing Libyan conflict,” Gen. Stephen forces would “unleash the largest aerial campaign in Libyan and Boeing KC-46 tanker. But Pratt’s threshold requirement for unsched- Townsend, commander of Africom, says in a statement. history,” with a focus on Turkish targets. Reports suggest a competitors have scored major wins major updates for the F-15EX, which uled engine removals. “Well, there is no denying it now. We watched as Russia Turkish-flagged ship in waters off Tripoli was attacked by in the last two years with the GE comprise a fly-by-wire control system The challenge will be to adapt a flew fourth-generation jet fighters to Libya—every step a MiG-29 on May 26. F404 selected to power the Boeing and a redesigned wing. modern engine to the mounts, pylon of the way.” Images released by Africom appear to show MiG-29s T-7A trainer and Rolls’ AE3007 set Pratt still struggled to decide how structure and avionics of the B-52. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander of U.S. Air Forces and Su-24s en route from Russia to Syria, where the air- to be installed on the Navy’s Boeing to react after the Air Force published By selecting an eight- rather than in Europe and Africa says “The next logical step is [the craft made a stop at Khmeimim. According to Africom, the MQ-25As. a notice of intent in late January to a four-engine replacement config- Russians] deploy permanent long-range anti-access/area MiG-29s were hastily repainted at Khmeimim “to camou- Seeking to introduce the F-15EX as award the sole-source engine con- uration, the Air Force minimized denial capabilities. If that day comes, it will create very real flage their Russian origin” before taking off again for Syria. quickly as possible and replace aging tract to GE. “There were some long changes to the wing structure and security concerns on Europe’s southern flank.” Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-35 “Flankers” may have es- F-15Cs, the Air Force initially decid- days in February and late January the need to adapt the rudder to over- Harrigian’s warning suggests Africom is concerned that corted them part of the way. Africom has not said how the ed to forgo a competition for the en- when we were trying to decide if this come greater adverse yaw caused by Libya could become Russia’s next overseas target—after imagery was secured, but it appears to suggest that U.S. gine. Although Pratt’s F100-PW-220 is something that we want to pro - an outboard engine failure. But the Syria—for a more permanent military presence. In 2015, and coalition assets were shadowing the Russian aircraft and -229 are the only powerplants test,” says Mark Beierle, Pratt’s F100 introduction of modern engines with Russia deployed fighters and bombers to Khmeimim Air from a distance with electro-optical cameras during both on the Air Force’s F-15E fleet today, program director. “But you just want full-authority digital engine controls Base in Syria to support forces loyal to Syrian President legs of the deployment. GE’s F110 is the only engine qualified to be a part of the competition. We has driven a requirement to update Bashar al-Assad. But when one of the Su-24s was shot down Meanwhile, imagery published online on May 26 appears on a configuration that includes two think we have a legacy with the pro- the avionics displays in the cockpit. c by a Turkish Air Force F-16, Russia deployed the S-400 inte- to reveal the presence of the Su-24s at the Al-Khadim Air

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 39 DEFENSE

Base near Benghazi. The images show the aircraft parked Sea was intercepted on May 26 by two Russian Su-35s for under rudimentary shelters. more than an hour. The close encounter restricted “the Additionally, the U.S. has also expressed its concerns P-8A’s ability to safely maneuver,” the Navy says. “The about repeated unsafe and unprofessional intercepts by unnecessary actions of the Russian Su-35 pilots were in- Russian combat aircraft on maritime patrol aircraft. Ac- consistent with good airmanship and international flight cording to the U.S. Navy’s Sixth Fleet, one of its Boeing rules and jeopardized the safety of flight of both aircraft,” P-8 Poseidons operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Navy officials say. c LUFTHANSA TECHNIK

Other NATO nations are not How the U.S. Open Skies Exit planning to follow the U.S. exit from Could Undermine Arms Control the Open Skies Treaty, so these camera apertures on Germany’s new > U.S. CITES RUSSIAN NONCOMPLIANCE AS RATIONALE FOR WITHDRAWAL Airbus A319 observation platform will continue to be used. > U.S. AIR FORCE OC-135 FLEET MODERNIZATION PLAN HALTED says Moscow blocked the overflight of Tony Osborne London and Jen DiMascio Washington a major military exercise in September 2019, “preventing the exact transpar- he decision by the U.S. govern- line-scanners and sideways-looking ency the treaty is meant to provide.” ment to withdraw from the Open synthetic aperture radar—may make In an op-ed in The New York Times, TSkies Treaty signed two decades observations anywhere over a coun- Tim Morrison, a senior fellow at the ago is creating ripples of discontent try’s national territory. Treaty rules say Hudson Institute and a former mem- within the U.S. and in Europe. that the flight may only be restricted ber of this administration’s National Washington announced on May 22 for reasons of flight safety, not for rea- Security Council, added that Russia that it would end its obligations to the sons of national security. has been using its overflights to collect arms control treaty in six months, say- NATO and European nations may “military relevant intelligence on the ing that it was “no longer in the United share U.S. concerns about inconsis- other parties, like the means to target States’ best interest to remain a party tent flight restrictions imposed by critical infrastructure.” to this Treaty when Russia does not up- Moscow but see a U.S. departure from NATO Secretary General Jens hold its commitments,” in a statement the agreement, in place since 1992, as Stoltenberg, during the May 22 meet- put out by the Defense Department. regrettable. ing of alliance members, called on the The Open Skies Treaty permits its According to the U.S. and NATO, Russian government to return to com- 34 signatories to conduct observa- Russia has imposed restrictions on the pliance as soon as possible, noting that tion flights over each other’s territory. treaty, in particular those flying near the U.S. could reconsider its position if Aircraft with four types of sensors— Kaliningrad, Russia’s enclave on the Russia complied. optical panoramic and framing cam- Baltic Sea, and near the country’s bor- European Open Skies Treaty mem- eras, real-time video cameras, infrared der with Georgia. The Pentagon also ber states—including Belgium, the

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Base near Benghazi. The images show the aircraft parked Sea was intercepted on May 26 by two Russian Su-35s for Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ger- retary Mark Esper and Secretary of to continue working with our allies and under rudimentary shelters. more than an hour. The close encounter restricted “the many, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, State Mike Pompeo contending that partners, especially those in Eastern Additionally, the U.S. has also expressed its concerns P-8A’s ability to safely maneuver,” the Navy says. “The Spain and Sweden—said they would withdrawal from the treaty is illegal. Europe, to ensure they have access to about repeated unsafe and unprofessional intercepts by unnecessary actions of the Russian Su-35 pilots were in- continue to implement the treaty, They say it violates the fiscal 2020 the intelligence they need to protect Russian combat aircraft on maritime patrol aircraft. Ac- consistent with good airmanship and international flight saying it has a “clear added value” for National Defense Authorization Act, their security. That includes facilitating cording to the U.S. Navy’s Sixth Fleet, one of its Boeing rules and jeopardized the safety of flight of both aircraft,” conventional arms control architecture which requires Esper and Pompeo to access to high-quality imagery.” P-8 Poseidons operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Navy officials say. c and cooperative security. notify Congress 120 days before the The U.S. had planned to upgrade Russia rejects the claims of flight intent to withdrawal is presented. the two Boeing OC-135 aircraft de - LUFTHANSA TECHNIK restrictions and contends that the U.S. “This notification must be based on livered to the Air Force in 1996. Late had limited Russia’s own Open Skies your joint conclusion that withdrawal last year, the U.S. issued a request for flights over Hawaii and the Aleutian is in the best interests of the United information saying it was considering Islands. Senior Russian officials, includ- States and that other states parties awarding two contracts—one for the ing Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman to the treaty have been consulted. To purchase of two commercial aircraft of the Russian Security Council, de- date, this requirement has not been and another to modify the airframe nounced Washington’s decision. Med- fulfilled,” wrote Reps. Adam Smith and provide logistics support. But vedev said the U.S. had taken another (Wash.), the Armed Services chair- the Pentagon did not include funding step down the “path of dismantling the man, and Eliot Engel (N.Y.), the Foreign for OC-135 upgrades in its fiscal 2020 international security architecture that Affairs chairman. budget request. And in March, Esper took decades to lay down.” President Donald Trump and his told Congress he was not prepared to Moscow believes Washington’s deci- administration have support from authorize funding for those upgrades sion could also affect other arms con- Repub licans who lead the Senate for until a path forward is clear. trol treaties, with negotiations on the their decision to exit the treaty. Several signatories to the treaty have next New Strategic Arms Reduction Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), who dedicated aircraft for the mission, oth- Treaty potentially at risk. chairs the Senate Armed Services ers share or lease platforms from oth- In Washington, the leaders of the Committee, asserts that the U.S. er nations for the task. Germany is the House Armed Services and Foreign should withdraw if Russia is not com- latest country to dedicate an aircraft Affairs committees (both Democrats) plying with the agreement. “It will be for the mission, using an Airbus A319 have written a letter to Defense Sec- critical for the Trump administration converted by Lufthansa Technik. c

Discover more www.engineleasingandfinance-europe.com Other NATO nations are not How the U.S. Open Skies Exit planning to follow the U.S. exit from Could Undermine Arms Control the Open Skies Treaty, so these #ELTF | camera apertures on Germany’s new > U.S. CITES RUSSIAN NONCOMPLIANCE AS RATIONALE FOR WITHDRAWAL Airbus A319 observation platform will continue to be used. > U.S. AIR FORCE OC-135 FLEET MODERNIZATION PLAN HALTED says Moscow blocked the overflight of Tony Osborne London and Jen DiMascio Washington a major military exercise in September 2019, “preventing the exact transpar- he decision by the U.S. govern- line-scanners and sideways-looking ency the treaty is meant to provide.” NEW DATES ANNOUNCED! ment to withdraw from the Open synthetic aperture radar—may make In an op-ed in The New York Times, TSkies Treaty signed two decades observations anywhere over a coun- Tim Morrison, a senior fellow at the 10-11 NOVEMBER 2020 ago is creating ripples of discontent try’s national territory. Treaty rules say Hudson Institute and a former mem- LONDON, UK within the U.S. and in Europe. that the flight may only be restricted ber of this administration’s National Washington announced on May 22 for reasons of flight safety, not for rea- Security Council, added that Russia that it would end its obligations to the sons of national security. has been using its overflights to collect THE PREMIER CONFERENCE SOLELY arms control treaty in six months, say- NATO and European nations may “military relevant intelligence on the FOCUSED ON ENGINE LEASING MANAGEMENT ing that it was “no longer in the United share U.S. concerns about inconsis- other parties, like the means to target States’ best interest to remain a party tent flight restrictions imposed by critical infrastructure.” GET IN TOUCH: to this Treaty when Russia does not up- Moscow but see a U.S. departure from NATO Secretary General Jens Speaker Enquiries: Sponsor/Exhibitor Enquiries: Registration Enquiries: hold its commitments,” in a statement the agreement, in place since 1992, as Stoltenberg, during the May 22 meet- Hannah Bonnett Victoria Keeble [email protected] put out by the Defense Department. regrettable. ing of alliance members, called on the [email protected] [email protected] The Open Skies Treaty permits its According to the U.S. and NATO, Russian government to return to com- 34 signatories to conduct observa- Russia has imposed restrictions on the pliance as soon as possible, noting that Host Sponsor Sponsor Official Publication tion flights over each other’s territory. treaty, in particular those flying near the U.S. could reconsider its position if Aircraft with four types of sensors— Kaliningrad, Russia’s enclave on the Russia complied. optical panoramic and framing cam- Baltic Sea, and near the country’s bor- European Open Skies Treaty mem- eras, real-time video cameras, infrared der with Georgia. The Pentagon also ber states—including Belgium, the

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 41 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT A GIANT IN THE MAKING

IGA > ISTANBUL’S NEW AIRPORT PROJECT Once complete, Istanbul Airport is TARGETS SIX RUNWAYS envisaged to host flights to more than 300 destinations. Of the six > EUROCONTROL SIMULATION IS KEY planned independent runways, the IN ROUTE NETWORK DESIGN first two are visible left of the passenger terminal (center); the third > GROUND TRAFFIC PROBLEMS ARE BEING SOLVED, TOO one is on the right. One dimension of Istanbul Airport Thierry Dubois Lyon does not lend itself to representa- tion by numbers: the complexity of rom the top floor of a cobra-shaped tower at Istanbul ground, approach and initial climb trajectories. Controllers and air Airport, air traffic controllers handling runway traffic traffic management (ATM) experts have a bird’s-eye view of the intricate trajectories they are devising them in a simulation instruct aircraft to follow to and from the gates. room in Bretigny, near Paris. Turkey F is a member state of Eurocontrol, The two existing parallel runways one Egyptian pyramid of earth per the organization in charge of ATM already create challenging situations day. In operation since April 2019, the in Europe, and so benefits from its on the taxiways, such as difficult first phase comprises the two paral- research and development (R&D) crossings and traffic jams, and the lel runways and a terminal with a capa bilities. airport is planned to expand to six passenger capacity of 90 million per The process epitomizes the knotty runways. To deal with that entire sit- year. Once complete, the new airport task of building an air traffic architec- uation, a combination of operational is envisaged to host flights to more ture around a new, giant hub. feedback and simulation is being used than 300 destinations with an annu- In 2017-18, Turkish controllers spent to validate the route network (on the al capacity of 200 million passengers six weeks in Bretigny for a two-runway ground and in the air) before each (twice that of Hartsfield-Jackson At- simulation. Routes had to connect with new stage in the airport’s expansion. lanta International Airport), possibly those around two other Istanbul-area During construction, trucks making it the busiest airport in the airports, Ataturk and Sabiha Gokcen, moved the equivalent in volume of world. says Michel Geissel, real-time simula-

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

A tion project manager at Eurocontrol. resume in September if the global matized as bunches of flowers at the Distances between the three airports health situation permits. end of each runway. At first glance, it are in the 20-40-nm range. Once in operation, the third runway, would seem every aircraft taking a left Ataturk had been Istanbul’s main located east of the terminal, will reduce turn after takeoff should use the left airport but became congested; it is domestic taxi times by approximately runway, and reciprocally a right turn GIANT now focused on business aviation and 50%, according to Istanbul Grand Air- after takeoff should be taken from the cargo flights. Sabiha Gokcen serves port (IGA), the company managing the right runway. IN THE MAKING touristic destinations and the east- airport. The average landing time will But this could involve more cross- ern Istanbul metro area. To compli- decrease to 11 min. from 15 min., while ings on taxiways. An aircraft at a gate cate matters, a second runway is to be average takeoff time will drop to 15 min. on the right side of the terminal might introduced at Sabiha Gokcen. from 22 min., IGA calculates. The new have to use the left runway. “Control- Connecting with the routes of runway will increase the airport’s lers have to determine which configura- neighboring countries’ airspace must capacity to 120 aircraft movements tion is best [:] crossings on the ground also be factored in, Geissel says. (takeoffs and landings) per hour from or in the air,” Geissel says. During the simulation session in the current 80. An additional twist is that each of 2017-18, approach and departure The first part of the simulation the two runways can become a pair of route designs were validated for session also proved useful for tower parallel, interdependent runways. Each Istanbul Airport. Simultaneously, controllers in solving congestion prob- main runway has a parallel, standby experts from Paris Charles de Gaulle lems with the existing two runways. runway alongside. During traffic peaks, Airport’s control towers shared their They could optimize taxiing times all four can be used as runways—each experiences in operating two parallel, and radio frequency transfers, Geissel pair then includes one for takeoff and independent runways. says. The exercise was built for three one for landing. An ongoing simulation session is runways but beneficial to the two-run- The standby runways will later be- focusing on the addition of a third way configuration. It involved six con- come taxiways as the number of main runway. It involves some 45 approach troller positions and six pseudo pilots runways grows. and tower controllers (the latter in (controllers played the roles of pilots). In designing routes to and from charge of aircraft at or in the imme- In addition to the taxiway maze, Istanbul Airport rather than Ataturk diate vicin ity of the airport) per week traffic must be handled on elaborate Airport, Turkey’s ATM experts also and is planned to last nine weeks. Six standard instrument departure (SID) had to study the impact on Bulgaria’s weeks of simulation were completed and standard terminal arrival (STAR) airspace, north of Turkey’s. The new

IGA early this year, and the session will routes. SIDs and STARs can be sche- airport is located north of the older ISTANBUL’S NEW AIRPORT PROJECT Once complete, Istanbul Airport is > Istanbul Airport, a 200-million-passenger project, has been operating with its TARGETS SIX RUNWAYS envisaged to host flights to more Istanbul Airport than 300 destinations. Of the six first runways for one year. West of the main passenger terminal (light blue), two EUROCONTROL SIMULATION IS KEY planned independent runways, the independent runways (dark blue) are complemented by two standby > runways (purple). Following the entry into service of the third main IN ROUTE NETWORK DESIGN first two are visible left of the passenger terminal (center); the third runway, just east of the existing terminal, will be one is on the right. the construction of another three runways > GROUND TRAFFIC PROBLEMS ARE BEING SOLVED, TOO and a second passenger terminal (red). One dimension of Istanbul Airport N Thierry Dubois Lyon does not lend itself to representa- tion by numbers: the complexity of ground, approach and initial climb rom the top floor of a cobra-shaped tower at Istanbul Main Runways Airport, air traffic controllers handling runway traffic trajectories. Controllers and air traffic management (ATM) experts Standby Runways have a bird’s-eye view of the intricate trajectories they are devising them in a simulation instruct aircraft to follow to and from the gates. room in Bretigny, near Paris. Turkey Taxiways F is a member state of Eurocontrol, First Passenger Terminal The two existing parallel runways one Egyptian pyramid of earth per the organization in charge of ATM already create challenging situations day. In operation since April 2019, the in Europe, and so benefits from its Second Passenger Terminal on the taxiways, such as difficult first phase comprises the two paral- research and development (R&D) crossings and traffic jams, and the lel runways and a terminal with a capa bilities. airport is planned to expand to six passenger capacity of 90 million per The process epitomizes the knotty runways. To deal with that entire sit- year. Once complete, the new airport task of building an air traffic architec- uation, a combination of operational is envisaged to host flights to more ture around a new, giant hub. feedback and simulation is being used than 300 destinations with an annu- In 2017-18, Turkish controllers spent to validate the route network (on the al capacity of 200 million passengers six weeks in Bretigny for a two-runway ground and in the air) before each (twice that of Hartsfield-Jackson At- simulation. Routes had to connect with new stage in the airport’s expansion. lanta International Airport), possibly those around two other Istanbul-area During construction, trucks making it the busiest airport in the airports, Ataturk and Sabiha Gokcen, moved the equivalent in volume of world. says Michel Geissel, real-time simula- Source: Eurocontrol/IGA COLIN THROM/AW&ST

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 43

Source: Eurocontrol AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

one, and the altitude at which a depart- variable-length flightpaths. Depending prove? . . . Our human factors experts ing aircraft enters Bulgarian airspace on traffic density, an aircraft is instruct- are in charge of devising the experi- is thus lower. Therefore, northbound ed to detour via a waypoint or take a ment,” Geissel says. aircraft taking off from Istanbul Air- direct route. Because the entire area The final phase of preparation is port could have created new conflicts around Istanbul’s three airports was about identifying issues that can arise with traffic flows in Bulgaria. “We had redesigned in 2017-18, Sabiha Gokcen only when controllers and pilots inter- Bulgarian and Turkish controllers also has a point merge procedure. act, Geissel says. They can typically talking to each other,” Geissel says. It takes one year to prepare for an be linked to aircraft performance or In addition, the weather is differ- exhaustive simulation that will culmi- weather. In this early phase, numer- ent at Istanbul Airport. Due to its nate with the validation of an airspace ous scenarios are tested and some- location on the Black Sea, prevailing design, Geissel says. As a service pro- times lead to finding 300 problems in winds are distinct from those at Atat- vider, Eurocontrol needs the customer one exercise, which eventually makes urk, Geissel explains. to send a “core team” of controllers that the simulation as realistic as possible, To organize the sequence of arriving includes decision-makers and stays for Geissel says. aircraft for each main runway, “point the entire duration of the session. During the main phase of the sim- merge” procedures were designed A crucial phase in designing the ulation, each scenario is usually run from the start (AW&ST July 29, 2013, airspace, its routes and associated three times with different controllers. p. 18). The idea is to have safe but min- procedures is making a detailed plan Each sector is staffed with two con- imal separation between aircraft on for the simulation. “Customers often trollers under the usual framework—a approach. The overarching goal is to have two or three high-level goals, and planner and an executive controller. make the most of the runway’s capacity. we have to ask them for details: Why They are responsible for short-term Moreover, so-called doglegs enable are you here? What do you want to im- planning and immediate action, re-

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT

National Health Service. “This first Medical Drone Flights Demonstrate flight has been invaluable in showing how the logistics at either end Confidence in BVLOS Operations will have to operate to tie in with the drone operations,” says Tom Cherrett, > THE FIRST ISLE OF WIGHT MEDICAL FLIGHT WAS COMPLETED ON MAY 9 a professor of logistics and transport management at the University of > FLIGHTS ARE PART OF THE WIDER FUTURE TRANSPORT ZONE PROJECT Southampton. “This will all contribute to the Tony Osborne London learning process of how such autonomous systems will function along- egular unmanned aircraft Secretary Grant Shapps, in recogni- side traditional supply chains in the flights carrying medical sup- tion of the UAV’s ability to transfer future,” he adds. Rplies between the British main- medical supplies quickly between the So far, payloads have been restrict- land and the Isle of Wight are demon- mainland and the Isle of Wight. ed to 40 kg (88 lb.), in part because the strating that the UK is overcoming Such supplies would normally be UAV is carrying test equipment but the regulatory and technical hurdles transported across the Solent strait also because the runway at Binstead to making beyond-visual-line-of-sight by ferry, but services are operating on Airfield is of limited length. (BVLOS) UAV flights routine. a much-reduced schedule as a result The next steps for the project are The 13-min., 10-km (6-mi.) hop from of the pandemic. to expand the carriage beyond what Solent Airport, near Portsmouth, The ULTRA UAV—for Unmanned the team calls “benign cargos,” and it England, to the grassy airstrip in Low-cost TRAnsport—the UK’s heavi- is working with the UK Civil Aviation Binstead on the Isle of Wight barely est nonmilitary fixed-wing UAV, was Authority (CAA) to be able to carry tested the capabilities of the twin-en- developed by the University of South- medical samples, which are classified gine Windracers UAV. But the first ampton and funded by Windracers, a by the CAA as dangerous goods. The flight, which took place on May 9, was charitable organization looking to use rules regarding carriage of such goods one of the first times a nonmilitary UAVs to distribute humanitarian aid. had not been applied to UAVs before. unmanned aircraft system was flown The platform was designed to carry a The team also plans to increase the BVLOS in the UK. payload of up to 100 kg (220 lb.) over range and fully automate the flight, in- The flights are in segregated air- a range of 1,000 km (620 mi.). Cargo is cluding an automated landing and use space for now, but deconfliction plans carried in a compartment the size of a of sense-and-avoid sensors. Current are in place so that they do not disrupt car trunk, buried in the wing. flights are performed using automatic airfield operations for other traffic. As of May 18, only one flight had takeoff but a semiautonomous landing. The flights had been due to begin in been completed to the Isle of Wight, The team also has safety pilots at each 2021 but were accelerated in light of carrying pathology samples, but airfield if needed. the novel coronavirus pandemic. They the team is set up to fly as many as The Isle of Wight demonstrations were moved ahead by UK Transport 10 flights per day if required by the are operating under an £8 million ($9.7

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT one, and the altitude at which a depart- variable-length flightpaths. Depending prove? . . . Our human factors experts spectively. A simulation involves real structions given to pilots and answers Eurocontrol calculates a maximum ing aircraft enters Bulgarian airspace on traffic density, an aircraft is instruct- are in charge of devising the experi- pilots (32 pilots for Istanbul Airport to a final questionnaire are compiled. cost for the customer. In the end, the is thus lower. Therefore, northbound ed to detour via a waypoint or take a ment,” Geissel says. approach scenarios) from a third- One kind of interaction is not fac- customer pays only for the work that aircraft taking off from Istanbul Air- direct route. Because the entire area The final phase of preparation is party service provider. tored in, however. Controllers in dif- was actually done. The amount may port could have created new conflicts around Istanbul’s three airports was about identifying issues that can arise In the simulation project, “it can be ferent positions sometimes talk to thus be less than the estimated maxi- with traffic flows in Bulgaria. “We had redesigned in 2017-18, Sabiha Gokcen only when controllers and pilots inter- interesting to include controllers who one another, face to face. “We do not mum. “It helps [place the] focus on the Bulgarian and Turkish controllers also has a point merge procedure. act, Geissel says. They can typically are not convinced by the new design,” record this, but we accept it—after all, designed solution, opening the door talking to each other,” Geissel says. It takes one year to prepare for an be linked to aircraft performance or Geissel says. They will experiment this is real life,” Geissel says. to improvements or moving faster to In addition, the weather is differ- exhaustive simulation that will culmi- weather. In this early phase, numer- with the in-development procedures, Debriefings are recorded to support real- life implementation,” Geissel says. ent at Istanbul Airport. Due to its nate with the validation of an airspace ous scenarios are tested and some- and their feedback will be factored the final analysis, too. For an airport’s ATM experts, com- location on the Black Sea, prevailing design, Geissel says. As a service pro- times lead to finding 300 problems in in, along with that of other control- The analysis takes 1-2 months. It ing to a foreign R&D center can be an winds are distinct from those at Atat- vider, Eurocontrol needs the customer one exercise, which eventually makes lers. “Simulations proved, on several typically translates into 800 pages opportunity to learn about new tools. urk, Geissel explains. to send a “core team” of controllers that the simulation as realistic as possible, occasions, to be a very good support of results and a 50-page report. The Developed by Europe’s SESAR Joint To organize the sequence of arriving includes decision-makers and stays for Geissel says. to convince reluctant participants. most important page is the executive Undertaking for ATM research, the aircraft for each main runway, “point the entire duration of the session. During the main phase of the sim- . . . They will then become excellent summary, which enables high-level Leading Optimized Runway Delivery merge” procedures were designed A crucial phase in designing the ulation, each scenario is usually run champions,” Geissel says. decisions, Geissel says. “It includes (LORD) tool reduces the buffer built from the start (AW&ST July 29, 2013, airspace, its routes and associated three times with different controllers. Then comes a phase of Big Data comments such as: ‘The airspace’s in for controller intervention, thus in- p. 18). The idea is to have safe but min- procedures is making a detailed plan Each sector is staffed with two con- analysis. Specifics such as controller architecture is consistent, but a slow creasing capacity. Meanwhile, LORD imal separation between aircraft on for the simulation. “Customers often trollers under the usual framework—a workload (evaluated by the controller climber might enter a military area.’. . . graphically helps the controller main- approach. The overarching goal is to have two or three high-level goals, and planner and an executive controller. every 3 min.), cursor-control move- It is never black or white. Most of the tain separation. Istanbul Airport’s make the most of the runway’s capacity. we have to ask them for details: Why They are responsible for short-term ments, the number of radio voice time, it is white but with recommen- representatives were interested, Moreover, so-called doglegs enable are you here? What do you want to im- planning and immediate action, re- communications, the nature of the in- dations or limitations.” Geissel says. c

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT

National Health Service. “This first Kent, England, to look for boats Medical Drone Flights Demonstrate flight has been invaluable in show- carrying migrants across the En- ing how the logistics at either end glish Channel. The flights have Confidence in BVLOS Operations will have to operate to tie in with the been taking place since the end drone operations,” says Tom Cherrett, SOLENT TRANSPORT of 2019 but have been firmly kept > THE FIRST ISLE OF WIGHT MEDICAL FLIGHT WAS COMPLETED ON MAY 9 a professor of logistics and transport out of the public eye. Meanwhile, management at the University of the UK Maritime and Coastguard > FLIGHTS ARE PART OF THE WIDER FUTURE TRANSPORT ZONE PROJECT Southampton. Agency is due this summer to fly a “This will all contribute to the Tony Osborne London learning process of how such auton- The ULTRA UAV is the heaviest omous systems will function along- fixed-wing nonmilitary UAV egular unmanned aircraft Secretary Grant Shapps, in recogni- side traditional supply chains in the developed in the UK. flights carrying medical sup- tion of the UAV’s ability to transfer future,” he adds. Rplies between the British main- medical supplies quickly between the So far, payloads have been restrict- series of trial missions with Elbit land and the Isle of Wight are demon- mainland and the Isle of Wight. ed to 40 kg (88 lb.), in part because the Systems’ Hermes 900 in support strating that the UK is overcoming Such supplies would normally be UAV is carrying test equipment but of search-and-rescue as well as the regulatory and technical hurdles transported across the Solent strait also because the runway at Binstead antipollution efforts. to making beyond-visual-line-of-sight by ferry, but services are operating on Airfield is of limited length. The Transport Department has (BVLOS) UAV flights routine. a much-reduced schedule as a result The next steps for the project are since declared the Coastguard The 13-min., 10-km (6-mi.) hop from of the pandemic. to expand the carriage beyond what demonstrations a Pathfinder pro- Solent Airport, near Portsmouth, The ULTRA UAV—for Unmanned the team calls “benign cargos,” and it gram, one of several UAV pilot England, to the grassy airstrip in Low-cost TRAnsport—the UK’s heavi- is working with the UK Civil Aviation projects designed to overcome the Binstead on the Isle of Wight barely est nonmilitary fixed-wing UAV, was Authority (CAA) to be able to carry technical, operational and com- tested the capabilities of the twin-en- developed by the University of South- medical samples, which are classified million) grant provided by the UK later this year and will involve several mercial barriers to BVLOS operations. gine Windracers UAV. But the first ampton and funded by Windracers, a by the CAA as dangerous goods. The Transport Department but is part of industrial partners, officials from the Elsewhere, unmanned-technolo- flight, which took place on May 9, was charitable organization looking to use rules regarding carriage of such goods a wider £28 million Future Transport Southampton City Council tell Avia- gy company Blue Bear is collaborat- one of the first times a nonmilitary UAVs to distribute humanitarian aid. had not been applied to UAVs before. Zone project to test mobility technolo- tion Week. ing with Cranfield University on the unmanned aircraft system was flown The platform was designed to carry a The team also plans to increase the gies in the Solent area, which includes The medical supply flights are one National BLVOS Experimentation BVLOS in the UK. payload of up to 100 kg (220 lb.) over range and fully automate the flight, in- the cities of Southampton and Ports- of several BVLOS flights now regular- Corridor in Bedfordshire, England, The flights are in segregated air- a range of 1,000 km (620 mi.). Cargo is cluding an automated landing and use mouth. If the UAV flights to the Isle ly taking place around the UK, as the where manned and unmanned vehicles space for now, but deconfliction plans carried in a compartment the size of a of sense-and-avoid sensors. Current of Wight are successful, other hospi- government pushes for drone tech- share airspace. Meanwhile, the CAA are in place so that they do not disrupt car trunk, buried in the wing. flights are performed using automatic tals in the area could also be linked, nology to be used more widely, both has announced it will work with Boe- airfield operations for other traffic. As of May 18, only one flight had takeoff but a semiautonomous landing. likely by vertical-takeoff-and-landing privately and publicly. ing’s future mobility business incuba- The flights had been due to begin in been completed to the Isle of Wight, The team also has safety pilots at each systems. The work also calls for the One government department tor through a memorandum of under- 2021 but were accelerated in light of carrying pathology samples, but airfield if needed. development of a local air traffic man- is performing regular flights of a standing that will explore requirements the novel coronavirus pandemic. They the team is set up to fly as many as The Isle of Wight demonstrations agement system, although work on Portuguese- developed twin-engine for detect-and-avoid systems and safety were moved ahead by UK Transport 10 flights per day if required by the are operating under an £8 million ($9.7 this is not due to get underway until Tekever AR5 UAV from Lydd Airport, cases for BVLOS flights above 400 ft.c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 45 URBAN AIR MOBILITY

Walmart Executive Backs The 44-strong team now “designing the perfect vehicle” is led by Tom Muniz and Geoff Bower. Muniz was previously eVTOL Startup Archer vice president of engineering at Wisk, the Boeing/Kitty Hawk joint venture developing the Cora eVTOL. Bower > DESIGN TEAM HAS SUBSTANTIAL eVTOL EXPERIENCE was previously chief engineer on Acubed’s Vahana eVTOL. Archer has flown a number of subscale testbeds and > A LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATOR IS PLANNED is now building higher-fidelity models. In parallel, it is TO FLY IN 2021 working on an 80%-scale demonstrator that is planned to fly in 2021. “It is too early to say when we will certify,” Graham Warwick Washington says Adcock. “We need to start engaging with the FAA. We hope to certify in the most efficient way possible, but n urban air mobility startup with an experienced it will be a long journey.” design team and backing from a Walmart executive Unlike some eVTOL startups that are counting on prom- A has emerged from stealth with plans to develop an ised advances in battery technology to achieve their perfor- all-electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing air taxi. mance claims, he says Archer is designing “a vehicle that Palo Alto, California-based Archer is led by entrepre - can get 60 mi. of range in the worse possible conditions.” neurs Brett Adcock and Adam Goldstein and backed by That means available batteries at the end of their useful Marc Lore, CEO of Walmart eCommerce. The design team life, with full reserves for emergencies and energy that is includes engineers who worked on electric vertical-take- inaccessible due to low voltages. ARCHER

The Archer eVTOL is a five-seat all-electric aircraft with “We think we can make that work today with technol- “some tilting” to achieve performance goals. ogy that exists off the shelf,” Adcock says. Archer is also designing for low noise for public acceptability. “We want off-and-landing (eVTOL) development at Airbus Acubed, these to be almost inaudible in flight over a city, operating Joby Aviation and Kitty Hawk as well as at NASA and at between 55 and 60 dB,” Adcock says. self-driving car developer Zoox. In addition to low direct operating cost, the startup is de- Archer is developing a piloted eVTOL urban air taxi able signing its eVTOL for low manufacturing cost. “The team to carry four passengers up to 60 mi. at 150 mph on today’s we have has such a deep bench of knowledge we are hopeful battery technology. Details are not being released, but the de- we can home in on a design concept that can achieve the sign is a fixed-wing aircraft with 12 electric motors and “some speed, range and payload we need to have an economically tilting,” says Adcock. A teaser image shows an aircraft with a viable business. Also [we hope to achieve] the safety and V tail and six five-blade propellers on a high-aspect-ratio wing. noise levels to gain community acceptance and, at the same The startup hopes to set itself apart in the hype-plagued time, make sure we’re focused on being able to mass-man- urban air mobility (UAM) market by tapping the experience ufacture these vehicles,” says Goldstein. of its design team to produce a safe, quiet vehicle with reli- Archer is designing the eVTOL to the same 10-9 probabil- able performance at low manufacturing and operating costs. ity of catastrophic failure as commercial transport aircraft. Adcock and Goldstein sold hiring marketplace Vettery in “Safety is our No. 1 priority,” adds Goldstein. “It’s not just 2018 for $100 million, while lead investor Lore sold his e-com- an Archer issue. As an industry, we need to make sure there merce company Jet.com to Walmart in 2016 for $3.3 billion. is trust from the public and that we can get people in these They are the latest internet entrepreneurs to put money vehicles right from the beginning.” into UAM. Google co-founder Larry Page backed Kitty Hawk Like other eVTOL startups, Archer is looking at both while Pinterest co-founder Paul Sciarra co-founded Joby. manufacturing and operating its air taxis. “If you can man- Archer is relatively late to the UAM game. “We are the ufacture and operate, you have the best likelihood of provid- underdog today, so we have a lot to prove,” says Adcock. ing the best possible customer experience, and that’s some- “The goal is for us to show the world that we can build a thing we’re focused on,” says Goldstein. “So that would be vehicle that is high-performance, with low direct operating our aspiration. I don’t think that precludes us from working costs, high safety and low noise.” with folks like Uber or a network.” c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST URBAN AIR MOBILITY

Walmart Executive Backs The 44-strong team now “designing the perfect vehicle” is led by Tom Muniz and Geoff Bower. Muniz was previously eVTOL Startup Archer vice president of engineering at Wisk, the Boeing/Kitty Hawk joint venture developing the Cora eVTOL. Bower > DESIGN TEAM HAS SUBSTANTIAL eVTOL EXPERIENCE was previously chief engineer on Acubed’s Vahana eVTOL. Archer has flown a number of subscale testbeds and > A LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATOR IS PLANNED is now building higher-fidelity models. In parallel, it is TO FLY IN 2021 working on an 80%-scale demonstrator that is planned to fly in 2021. “It is too early to say when we will certify,” Graham Warwick Washington says Adcock. “We need to start engaging with the FAA. We hope to certify in the most efficient way possible, but n urban air mobility startup with an experienced it will be a long journey.” OCTOBER 20-21, 2020 design team and backing from a Walmart executive Unlike some eVTOL startups that are counting on prom- A has emerged from stealth with plans to develop an ised advances in battery technology to achieve their perfor- The Ritz-Carlton Tysons Corner all-electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing air taxi. mance claims, he says Archer is designing “a vehicle that McLean, VA Palo Alto, California-based Archer is led by entrepre - can get 60 mi. of range in the worse possible conditions.” neurs Brett Adcock and Adam Goldstein and backed by That means available batteries at the end of their useful Marc Lore, CEO of Walmart eCommerce. The design team life, with full reserves for emergencies and energy that is includes engineers who worked on electric vertical-take- inaccessible due to low voltages. The DefenseChain Conference is designed for leaders and decision-makers from primes to suppliers, including strategic planning and business development leaders, program and project managers, supply chain ARCHER executives, market analysts, investment bankers and financial institutions.

DefenseChain Conference incorporates the unique Aviation Week Topics focus on key components driving Program Excellence initiative, an industry-led process that reveals best the industry: practices and honors leaders who are setting the standard for performance Defense industry and Pentagon budget excellence. Day two of the Conference culminates with the Program outlooks Excellence Awards Banquet where industry highlights the best. Shaping acquisitions of the future Supply chain opportunities The THREE MAIN PILLARS of the DefenseChain Conference are: The technology innovation capacity of the industry Business Strategy, Supplier Opportunities and Program Excellence. The program leadership response to 2020s Knowledge gained from each pillar is actionable—enabling delegates to effectively secure significant and sustainable growth opportunities.

Business Strategy Supercharge Your Business Strategy Who benefits from attending? The Archer eVTOL is a five-seat all-electric aircraft with “We think we can make that work today with technol- Delegates at DefenseChain engage with top industry Strategic planning, business development, engineering and technology leaders “some tilting” to achieve performance goals. ogy that exists off the shelf,” Adcock says. Archer is also analysts who offer their views of the industry, provide designing for low noise for public acceptability. “We want forecasts for business planning, present DoD priorities, Supply chain executives and senior decision off-and-landing (eVTOL) development at Airbus Acubed, these to be almost inaudible in flight over a city, operating long-term strategies around defense operations, makers Joby Aviation and Kitty Hawk as well as at NASA and at between 55 and 60 dB,” Adcock says. consolidation and restructuring, and OEM and Program and project leaders self-driving car developer Zoox. In addition to low direct operating cost, the startup is de- prime initiatives. Analysts, investment and financial Archer is developing a piloted eVTOL urban air taxi able signing its eVTOL for low manufacturing cost. “The team community members to carry four passengers up to 60 mi. at 150 mph on today’s we have has such a deep bench of knowledge we are hopeful battery technology. Details are not being released, but the de- we can home in on a design concept that can achieve the Supplier Opportunities Grow Your Business or Organization sign is a fixed-wing aircraft with 12 electric motors and “some speed, range and payload we need to have an economically DefenseChain shows suppliers how to make their mark tilting,” says Adcock. A teaser image shows an aircraft with a viable business. Also [we hope to achieve] the safety and with top Defense programs and clear the fiscal realities Sponsorships V tail and six five-blade propellers on a high-aspect-ratio wing. noise levels to gain community acceptance and, at the same and the deal-making models that prime contractors Sponsorships enable you to promote your The startup hopes to set itself apart in the hype-plagued time, make sure we’re focused on being able to mass-man- are utilizing today. Delegates discover how the Defense brand, products and/or services on the urban air mobility (UAM) market by tapping the experience ufacture these vehicles,” says Goldstein. supply chain is reshaping itself to create winning expansive Aviation Week Network, and of its design team to produce a safe, quiet vehicle with reli- Archer is designing the eVTOL to the same 10-9 probabil- positions on major programs. on-site throughout the Conference. able performance at low manufacturing and operating costs. ity of catastrophic failure as commercial transport aircraft. Customized sponsorships are also available. Adcock and Goldstein sold hiring marketplace Vettery in “Safety is our No. 1 priority,” adds Goldstein. “It’s not just The earlier you begin your Sponsorship – Program Excellence Stay Informed on Breakthroughs to Program Performance the more valuable it is! The Aviation Week 2018 for $100 million, while lead investor Lore sold his e-com- an Archer issue. As an industry, we need to make sure there Network averages more than two million page merce company Jet.com to Walmart in 2016 for $3.3 billion. is trust from the public and that we can get people in these Discover program breakthroughs and technological views per month – that’s millions of potential They are the latest internet entrepreneurs to put money vehicles right from the beginning.” innovations as speed and disruption become increasingly views of your logo if you start today! into UAM. Google co-founder Larry Page backed Kitty Hawk Like other eVTOL startups, Archer is looking at both important factors. Gain visibility into the processes and To become a Sponsor contact Joanna while Pinterest co-founder Paul Sciarra co-founded Joby. manufacturing and operating its air taxis. “If you can man- systems that enable program and project leaders to reach Speed, Managing Director, A&D Conferences Archer is relatively late to the UAM game. “We are the ufacture and operate, you have the best likelihood of provid- the highest levels of program execution as we honor the at +1-310-857-7691. underdog today, so we have a lot to prove,” says Adcock. ing the best possible customer experience, and that’s some- 2020 Program Excellence finalists and winners. “The goal is for us to show the world that we can build a thing we’re focused on,” says Goldstein. “So that would be vehicle that is high-performance, with low direct operating our aspiration. I don’t think that precludes us from working Register and learn more at: costs, high safety and low noise.” with folks like Uber or a network.” c USE PRIORITY CODE ‘EB2020’ for 15% Discount (Limited Time Only) conf.events/DCPE 46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

PROPULSION MAGNIX PHOTOS MAGNIX MagniX and AeroTEC Electrify Workhorse Caravan

> STC s PLANNED FOR BEAVER AND CARAVAN MODIFICATIONS

> 750-HP ELECTRIC MOTOR REPLACES PT6A TURBOPROP

Graham Warwick Washington

lectric motor developer MagniX and certification spe- Ganzarski says. This equates to a roughly 100-mi. range. cialist AeroTEC have flown a Cessna 208B Caravan About 5% of worldwide commercial airline flights are less Econverted to electric propulsion. The aircraft made than 100 mi., he says, and this does not include small carri- a 30-min. first flight from Moses Lake, Washington, on ers such as Cape Air with short routes. “It seems short, but May 27. 100 mi. has great potential for subregional flight.” The eCaravan is the largest all-electric commercial air- Flying both the eBeaver and the eCaravan allows MagniX craft to fly so far, and it follows a de Havilland Canada DHC-2 to test its electric propulsion system “on water and on land, Beaver converted to electric propulsion by MagniX and in cooler Vancouver and warmer Moses Lake,” he says. The Harbour Air Seaplanes that was first flown on Dec. 10, 2019. first phase of flight testing for both aircraft is expected The modified Caravan uses the same 560-kW (750-shp) to take 8-9 months, after which MagniX and its partners Magni500 electric motor as that fitted to the eBeaver, but plan to begin supplemental type certification (STC) of the operating at a higher power output, MagniX CEO Roei modifications. Ganzarski says. The same power electronics and lithi- The STC programs will take at least a year, he says, um-ion batteries are also used. depending on the changes required to the aircraft. The The Grand Caravan’s 675-shp Pratt & Whitney PT6A tur- batteries will have to be relocated to free up space in the boprop and gearbox have been removed and a new mount cabin. Options for the eCaravan include mounting them in installed for the smaller, lighter electric motor. This drives the wing or in the underfuselage cargo pod. the existing propeller, providing the same power output “We are starting out on the STC with the intent of mak- as the PT6A. ing minimal changes” to minimize risk and cost, Ganzarski As in the eBeaver, the batteries are mounted on the cabin says. “We plan to maintain the structural design of the air- floor of the test aircraft where they are accessible and can craft, and only work on where to put the batteries.” be monitored in flight, says Ganzarski. Other modifications While the Magni500 motor produces the same power include a pilot display for the electric propulsion system. as the Caravan’s PT6A, it provides more torque at lower Using technology commercially available in 2019, the bat- propeller rpm, which enables a faster takeoff. The absence teries are expected to provide 30 min. of flight time plus visu- of any lapse in power with altitude, which happens in a al flight rules reserves, he says. This is projected to increase turbine engine as density decreases, increases climb rate. as lithium-ion batteries improve or other battery chemis- Response to power changes is also much faster, he says. tries or energy sources such as fuel cells become available. Compared with the PT6A, the electric motor produces The eBeaver seaplane has flown for at least 30 min. in the same torque at lower propeller rpm, reducing noise flight tests, “and we expect the same of the eCaravan,” while taxiing. At takeoff, the propeller noise is unchanged

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

PROPULSION MAGNIX PHOTOS MAGNIX

MagniX and AeroTEC Electrify but the turbine engine there has been “a slight noise is absent. “At taxi slowing down” of the Alice Workhorse Caravan it is almost silent,” says program, he says. “There Ganzarski. is no need to be in a hurry,” Testing has also re - he adds. > STC s PLANNED FOR BEAVER AND vealed that the Magni500 Ganzarski believes the CARAVAN MODIFICATIONS can produce greater max- novel coronavirus pan- imum power in emergen- demic may actually have 750-HP ELECTRIC MOTOR REPLACES cies. MagniX estimated improved the prospects for > the motor could go 20% electric regional aircraft. PT6A TURBOPROP beyond its 750-hp continu- He says before COVID-19 ous power rating for up to there were two main driv- 10 min., but flight testing is ers for electric aviation: showing “it can go to high- the on-demand economy er maximum power, and The eCaravan is a joint project by MagniX, led by MagniX and need for low operating for a longer duration,” he CEO Roei Ganzarski (left), and AeroTEC, founded and led costs, and environmental says. This would increase by Lee Human (right). awareness and demand to the performance margin in reduce emissions. a twin-engine aircraft if one motor were to fail. After COVID-19, Ganzarski believes small aircraft op- MagniX is also supplying its 280-kW Magni250 motors to erating between small airports could become attractive to power Israeli startup Eviation’s 11-seat all-electric aircraft, passengers wanting to travel shorter distances and keen the Alice. Both companies are owned by the Claremont to avoid the exposure of flying from hub airports in large Group, a Singapore-based investment conglomerate. aircraft. Eviation’s first prototype was damaged beyond repair in The all-electric Alice has a design range greater than a fire during ground tests in January. A second prototype 500 mi., and almost half the airline flights in North Amer- is on track to fly within 12 months, says Ganzarski, who is ica are under 500 mi., he says. “COVID could accelerate a chairman of Eviation. return to small airports, and electric aircraft are exactly Powered by a 750-hp MagniX electric motor, the eCaravan Due to the effects of COVID-19 on Eviation’s customers, poised to take over.” c lifts off from AeroTEC’s test center at Moses Lake.

Graham Warwick Washington lectric motor developer MagniX and certification spe- Ganzarski says. This equates to a roughly 100-mi. range. cialist AeroTEC have flown a Cessna 208B Caravan About 5% of worldwide commercial airline flights are less Econverted to electric propulsion. The aircraft made than 100 mi., he says, and this does not include small carri- a 30-min. first flight from Moses Lake, Washington, on ers such as Cape Air with short routes. “It seems short, but May 27. 100 mi. has great potential for subregional flight.” The eCaravan is the largest all-electric commercial air- Flying both the eBeaver and the eCaravan allows MagniX craft to fly so far, and it follows a de Havilland Canada DHC-2 to test its electric propulsion system “on water and on land, Beaver converted to electric propulsion by MagniX and in cooler Vancouver and warmer Moses Lake,” he says. The Harbour Air Seaplanes that was first flown on Dec. 10, 2019. first phase of flight testing for both aircraft is expected The modified Caravan uses the same 560-kW (750-shp) to take 8-9 months, after which MagniX and its partners Magni500 electric motor as that fitted to the eBeaver, but plan to begin supplemental type certification (STC) of the operating at a higher power output, MagniX CEO Roei modifications. Ganzarski says. The same power electronics and lithi- The STC programs will take at least a year, he says, um-ion batteries are also used. depending on the changes required to the aircraft. The The Grand Caravan’s 675-shp Pratt & Whitney PT6A tur- batteries will have to be relocated to free up space in the ● boprop and gearbox have been removed and a new mount cabin. Options for the eCaravan include mounting them in ● installed for the smaller, lighter electric motor. This drives the wing or in the underfuselage cargo pod. the existing propeller, providing the same power output “We are starting out on the STC with the intent of mak- ● as the PT6A. ing minimal changes” to minimize risk and cost, Ganzarski As in the eBeaver, the batteries are mounted on the cabin says. “We plan to maintain the structural design of the air- floor of the test aircraft where they are accessible and can craft, and only work on where to put the batteries.” be monitored in flight, says Ganzarski. Other modifications While the Magni500 motor produces the same power include a pilot display for the electric propulsion system. as the Caravan’s PT6A, it provides more torque at lower Using technology commercially available in 2019, the bat- propeller rpm, which enables a faster takeoff. The absence teries are expected to provide 30 min. of flight time plus visu- of any lapse in power with altitude, which happens in a al flight rules reserves, he says. This is projected to increase turbine engine as density decreases, increases climb rate. as lithium-ion batteries improve or other battery chemis- Response to power changes is also much faster, he says. tries or energy sources such as fuel cells become available. Compared with the PT6A, the electric motor produces The eBeaver seaplane has flown for at least 30 min. in the same torque at lower propeller rpm, reducing noise flight tests, “and we expect the same of the eCaravan,” while taxiing. At takeoff, the propeller noise is unchanged

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 49 CONNECTED AEROSPACE

U.S. Agencies Petition FCC sector and government experts and stakeholders in this community, and Over Ligado License Order a record replete with evidence that granting Ligado’s proposal would cause INDUSTRY GROUPS JOIN IN PETITIONING FCC harmful interference, the commission > ignored material questions of fact, did > AIRLINE PILOTS RAISE CONCERNS OVER SATCOM not properly weigh the costs and benefits of Ligado’s proposal, and offered a series of ‘remedies’ that are patently inadequate,” the manufacturer adds. The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) filed a petition for reconsid- eration of the Ligado decision on May 20, and a bipartisan group of 32 U.S. senators sent a letter to the FCC on A sign points the way to the Ligado Networks’ headquarters in Reston, Virginia, outside of Washington.

May 15 asking it to reverse course. The bipartisan leadership and 20 members of the House Armed Services Commit- tee (HASC) decried the “unacceptable risk” posed to GPS by Ligado’s network in a May 7 letter to the commission. The ALPA petition asks the FCC to disallow Ligado from operating transmitters at frequencies adjacent to the GPS band and in spectrum allocated for mobile satellite services at 1.6 GHz. BILL CAREY/AW&ST FAA-certified avionics are hard- Bill Carey Washington ened against potential interference

eading a pack of industry and government organizations in Lopposition, U.S. federal agencies formally petitioned an independent sister agency to reconsider its order allowing Ligado Networks access to radio frequency spectrum near frequencies allocated for GPS. Representing the Defense Depart- ment, the Transportation Department and other executive branch agencies, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) petitioned the independent Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and manufacturers, including GPS by a Ligado transmitter operating at on May 22 to reconsider and stay, or Block III satellite manufacturer a distance. The pilot union’s concern postpone, its order granting Ligado Lockheed Martin and L-band satel- is that general aviation pilots using use of L-band mobile satellite services lite communications (satcom) provid- tablet devices with uncertified GPS re- spectrum to build a ground-based 5G er Iridium Communications have also ceivers to help them navigate, as well cellular network. petitioned the FCC to reconsider its as small drones using uncertified re- The latter petition states that decision. ceivers, are much more susceptible to Ligado should not be permitted to de- “The impact of the FCC’s decision interference, potentially causing them ploy its network until federal agencies’ is tantamount to permitting a deafen- to blunder into the path of airliners. concerns over its potential harmful ing nuisance into a quiet residential The ALPA petition also raises the effects on GPS devices are resolved. neighborhood over the objections of potential of Ligado-enabled smart- A branch of the Commerce Depart- affected neighbors,” Lockheed Martin phones carried by airline passengers ment, the NTIA coordinates federal states its petition. interfering with L-band satcom used agencies’ use of spectrum. Several “Despite the strong concerns of and for controller-pilot data link communi- aviation and other industry groups opposition from a wide array of private cations and automatic dependent sur-

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST CONNECTED AEROSPACE

U.S. Agencies Petition FCC sector and government experts and veillance-contract position reports— “A few powerful people made a each chip is not only tuned to GPS but stakeholders in this community, and applications used by air navigation hasty decision over the weekend in embedded with interconnected elec- Over Ligado License Order a record replete with evidence that service providers to track and sepa- the middle of the [coronavirus] crisis tronics each tuned to each other.” granting Ligado’s proposal would cause rate aircraft over remote and oceanic against the judgment of every other A new generation of Military GPS INDUSTRY GROUPS JOIN IN PETITIONING FCC harmful interference, the commission areas outside of radar coverage. agency involved and without clueing User Equipment (MGUE) consisting > ignored material questions of fact, did “If Ligado-compatible handsets the president in on any of this,” said of modernized, jam-resistant receiv- > AIRLINE PILOTS RAISE CONCERNS OVER SATCOM not properly weigh the costs and ben- were carried onboard aircraft by pas- Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the SASC er cards will not be installed across efits of Ligado’s proposal, and offered sengers and were to become active chairman, in his opening remarks. weapons systems until the 2030s, a series of ‘remedies’ that are patently when satcom is being used for com- “They waited until the whole world Reed said. “The best course of ac - inadequate,” the manufacturer adds. munications and surveillance, these was distracted by the virus, and when tion for national security,” he advised, The Air Line Pilots Association safety services could potentially be everyone was looking the other way— would be for the FCC to stay the li- (ALPA) filed a petition for reconsid- disrupted,” the ALPA petition argues. unannounced to the public, in total se- cense approval until MGUE chipsets eration of the Ligado decision on May Satcom providers Inmarsat and crecy on a weekend—passed the most are fitted into critical systems. 20, and a bipartisan group of 32 U.S. Iridium provide L-band satellite con- controversial licensing bill, I think, in Notably unrepresented at the senators sent a letter to the FCC on nectivity for critical aviation applica- the history of the FCC,” Inhofe added. hearing were Reston, Virginia-based tions. In its 74-page order, the FCC Witnesses testifying at the hearing Ligado Networks and the FCC. The A sign points the way to the Ligado states that Ligado has entered into had no explanation when pressed by latter has issued a list of 29 promi- Networks’ headquarters in Reston, an arrangement with Inmarsat to ad- senators on why the FCC approved nent individuals and organizations Virginia, outside of Washington. dress potential interference concerns the Ligado license modifications, that support its decision, including but not with Iridium. which evolved from a network propos- U.S. Attorney General William Barr, May 15 asking it to reverse course. The “Absent an understanding between al advanced in 2011 by LightSquared, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and bipartisan leadership and 20 members the parties, we reduce Ligado’s emis- a predecessor company. LightSquared Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). of the House Armed Services Commit- sions within the frequency band used was reorganized in bankruptcy and Barr and others have argued that tee (HASC) decried the “unacceptable by Iridium and encourage the parties renamed Ligado Networks in 2016. freeing spectrum to deploy high- risk” posed to GPS by Ligado’s network to engage in further discussions to “It’s quizzical,” said U.S. Coast speed 5G wireless technology is key in a May 7 letter to the commission. reach mutually satisfactory arrange- Guard Adm. (ret.) Thad Allen. The to maintaining a competitive edge The ALPA petition asks the FCC to ments where possible,” the commis- lengthy FCC order “had to be in the against China. Conversely, the Pen- disallow Ligado from operating trans- sion’s order states. works for quite a while, and it hap - tagon contends that China’s BeiDou mitters at frequencies adjacent to the Senators wrote to the FCC follow- pened suddenly,” he added. “In my and Russia’s Glonass satellite-posi- GPS band and in spectrum allocated ing a May 6 hearing held by the Senate view, that was a breakdown of commu- tioning systems would benefit from for mobile satellite services at 1.6 GHz. Armed Services Committee (SASC), nications and in building a consensus any degradation of GPS. BILL CAREY/AW&ST FAA-certified avionics are hard- which sought an explanation of the around proper rulemaking at a regu- The office of Rep. Mike Turner Bill Carey Washington ened against potential interference board’s controversial 5-0 decision. latory agency.” (R-Ohio) said May 27 that FCC offi- LIGADO NETWORKS eading a pack of industry and government organizations in Lopposition, U.S. federal agencies formally petitioned an independent The FCC has mandated sister agency to reconsider its order that Ligado provide a allowing Ligado Networks access to radio frequency spectrum near fre- 23-MHz “guard band” quencies allocated for GPS. and limit its base station Representing the Defense Depart- power levels to protect ment, the Transportation Department against interference and other executive branch agencies, with GPS. the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) petitioned the independent Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and manufacturers, including GPS by a Ligado transmitter operating at Defense Department witnesses tes- The Defense Department estimates cials had acknowledged during a con- on May 22 to reconsider and stay, or Block III satellite manufacturer a distance. The pilot union’s concern tifying at the hearing said they were that Ligado transmitters potentially ference call with the HASC that they postpone, its order granting Ligado Lockheed Martin and L-band satel- is that general aviation pilots using blindsided by the FCC action. could interfere with any of a million had not sought classified briefings use of L-band mobile satellite services lite communications (satcom) provid- tablet devices with uncertified GPS re- The FCC announced on April 20—a legacy GPS receivers embedded in from any of the 13 federal agencies spectrum to build a ground-based 5G er Iridium Communications have also ceivers to help them navigate, as well Monday—that it had approved the vehicles and weapons systems, cost- affected by the Ligado order. cellular network. petitioned the FCC to reconsider its as small drones using uncertified re- license modifications Ligado sought to ing the Pentagon billions of dollars “The FCC is the only federal gov- The latter petition states that decision. ceivers, are much more susceptible to build a low-power terrestrial network to replace and delaying training and ernment entity that thinks this is Ligado should not be permitted to de- “The impact of the FCC’s decision interference, potentially causing them for 5G and internet of things services readiness of its forces. a good idea,” stated Turner. “I was ploy its network until federal agencies’ is tantamount to permitting a deafen- to blunder into the path of airliners. with conditions designed to prevent “Ligado maintains that [the Defense concerned when I asked the FCC offi- concerns over its potential harmful ing nuisance into a quiet residential The ALPA petition also raises the interference with GPS. The approval Department] can simply replace affect- cials on the call if they had convinced effects on GPS devices are resolved. neighborhood over the objections of potential of Ligado-enabled smart- authorizes the company to use three ed GPS cards,” said Sen. Jack Reed any other agency this was good pol- A branch of the Commerce Depart- affected neighbors,” Lockheed Martin phones carried by airline passengers spectrum bands: one that is adjacent (D-R.I.), ranking member of the SASC. icy or if they had made an attempt ment, the NTIA coordinates federal states its petition. interfering with L-band satcom used to the 1559-1610 MHz band allocated “But there are hundreds of thousands to receive a classified briefing on the agencies’ use of spectrum. Several “Despite the strong concerns of and for controller-pilot data link communi- for radionavigation satellite services, of GPS chips embedded in [Defense effects of their decision, and their an- aviation and other industry groups opposition from a wide array of private cations and automatic dependent sur- including the GPS L1 signal. Department] weapon systems, and swer was ‘no’.” c

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 51 SPACE > NASA spaceflight head ousted p. 54 Fast Five: Musk p. 55 SpaceX’s path to human spaceflight p. 56 Boeing regroups p . 5 8 Firefly Alpha update p. 60 LauncherOne demo loss p. 62 NASA international Moon policy p. 63 NASA COMMERCIAL EXPERIMENT > SPACEX’S FIRST HUMAN > FOURTH MISSION > ISS SHORT-STAFFED UNTIL SPACEFLIGHT MAY FLY MOVIE STAR SPACE TAXIS CERTIFIED Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral TAKES OFF

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT focus on this test flight and making sure we accomplish all the certification requirements that we have.” to replace NASA’s decom- NASA’s 2014 fixed-price, milestone-based Commercial COMMERCIAL missioned space shuttle Crew Transportation Capability contracts with SpaceX and fleet with privately owned Boeing include flight tests and six PCMs apiece. The com- CREW panies are three years behind schedule due to a range of COUNTDOWN and operated space taxi technical issues with parachutes, launch abort systems and services, a project 10 years other equipment. Boeing faces an additional nine months of work to recover from the Starliner’s troubled uncrewed in the making, moves into orbital flight test in December 2019. Software issues pre- its final phase with the launch of two U.S. as- vented the capsule from reaching the ISS. tronauts on a shakedown flight to the Interna- The ensuing investigation uncovered additional serious software problems, prompting NASA to flag the mission tional Space Station. as a “high-visibility close call.” Boeing plans to repeat the Strapped inside a sleek, touchscreen-controlled SpaceX uncrewed flight test late this year, followed by a crewed Crew Dragon capsule, veteran NASA astronauts Robert flight test similar to SpaceX’s Demo-2. Behnken and Douglas Hurley were scheduled to lift off Despite the delays, NASA has been able to keep a fairly May 30 and reach the International Space Station (ISS) tight cap on Commercial Crew Program costs, with the following day. An initial launch attempt on May 27 was SpaceX’s contract growing from $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion canceled due to poor weather. in six years and Boeing’s from $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion. The launch was to be the 85th flight of a Falcon 9 and The figures, however, do not include the extra $1 billion SpaceX’s first with people. “It’s super exciting to see this,” NASA has spent to buy additional rides on the Soyuz SpaceX founder, CEO and Chief Engineer Elon Musk tells during the delays, the OIG audit shows. Aviation Week. “I never thought it would happen.” Overall, NASA awarded more than $8.2 billion in Space How long Behnken, 49, and Hurley, 53, will remain on- Act Agreements and contracts under two Commercial Crew board the ISS has yet to be determined. Development phases, the Commercial Crew Integrated Ca- SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner pability initiative, the Certification Products Contract and programs—funded in 2014 for development, testing and the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability. Selected operational missions—are so late to the finish line that companies contributed funding to the programs as well. NASA plans to reassign the test pilots to the ISS crew to NASA estimates the commercial partnering approach help plug staffing shortfalls as paid rides on Russian Soyuz cost $20-30 billion less than what it would have spent to capsules come to an end. develop a low-Earth-orbit transportation system under Since the space shuttles were retired in 2011, Soyuz traditional cost-plus-award-fee contracts, says NASA’s spacecraft have been the sole means of flying crew to and Commercial Development director Phil McAlister. from the ISS, a service that has cost the U.S. more than Cutting development cost was not the program’s only $4 billion since 2006, according to a NASA Office of Inspec- goal. NASA also wanted a next-generation spaceship that tor General (OIG) audit in November 2019. would be far safer than anything previously flown. The The station currently is staffed by just a single U.S. as- agency set a requirement that the Commercial Crew ve- tronaut and a pair of Russian cosmonauts, half the usual hicles be designed to limit the risk of loss of life to 1:270 crew size. If all goes well with the Demo-2 mission, Behnken flights and limit the risk of loss of mission to 1:60 flights. and Hurley will transfer to the ongoing Expedition 63 crew The numbers and methodologies for risk assessment were for up to four months. The mission duration will largely be the subject of hot debate, but they were useful for the com- determined by SpaceX’s progress preparing the next Crew panies to identify which systems warranted the best use Dragon spacecraft for flight on the first Post-Certification of their time and money to improve, says Patricia Sanders, Mission (PCM), Crew-1, says ISS Program Manager Kirk head of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, which serves Shireman. as an independent NASA safety watchdog. “We’ll be watching the preparation of the Crew-1 vehicle, “NASA was trying to drive the design changes needed to and when we’re confident it’s just about ready to go, that’s get the loss-of-crew numbers as low as possible,” Sanders when we’d like to bring home Demo-2,” Shireman told re- tells Aviation Week. porters before launch. “That way, we can maximize the The agency did this by mitigating some of the risk with utility of work aboard the ISS and minimize the amount operational activities such as conducting detailed inspec-

LOGO PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK of time there is a crew of one, while still maintaining the tions of the capsules aboard the ISS to check for micromete-

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > NASA spaceflight head ousted p. 54 Fast Five: Musk p. 55 SpaceX’s path to human spaceflight p. 56 Boeing regroups p . 5 8 Firefly Alpha update p. 60 LauncherOne demo loss p. 62 NASA international Moon policy p. 63 NASA COMMERCIAL EXPERIMENT > SPACEX’S FIRST HUMAN > FOURTH MISSION > ISS SHORT-STAFFED UNTIL SPACEFLIGHT MAY FLY MOVIE STAR SPACE TAXIS CERTIFIED Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral TAKES OFF

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT focus on this test flight and making sure we accomplish all oroid and orbital debris (MMOD) strikes, which could pose the certification requirements that we have.” a hazard during reentry. With the inspection, which will be to replace NASA’s decom- NASA’s 2014 fixed-price, milestone-based Commercial conducted prior to the Crew Dragon’s undocking for the COMMERCIAL missioned space shuttle Crew Transportation Capability contracts with SpaceX and return trip to Earth, SpaceX’s loss-of-crew number is 1:276, fleet with privately owned Boeing include flight tests and six PCMs apiece. The com- and the overall mission risk is 1:60, NASA says. The single CREW panies are three years behind schedule due to a range of biggest risk is MMOD, followed by the capsule’s parachutes. COUNTDOWN and operated space taxi technical issues with parachutes, launch abort systems and “It wasn’t that easy to get to those numbers,” Sanders services, a project 10 years other equipment. Boeing faces an additional nine months says. “Both providers had to do some work with the design of work to recover from the Starliner’s troubled uncrewed to get there. And that was the value of those calculations in the making, moves into orbital flight test in December 2019. Software issues pre- really, to help identify where you can influence it by work- its final phase with the launch of two U.S. as- vented the capsule from reaching the ISS. ing your design and operational mitigations when it’s ap- tronauts on a shakedown flight to the Interna- The ensuing investigation uncovered additional serious propriate. . . . The number itself is not so important as is software problems, prompting NASA to flag the mission understanding what can drive loss of crew and then how tional Space Station. as a “high-visibility close call.” Boeing plans to repeat the you can work to improve your chances.” Strapped inside a sleek, touchscreen-controlled SpaceX uncrewed flight test late this year, followed by a crewed SpaceX believes its Crew Dragon is so safe that it is Crew Dragon capsule, veteran NASA astronauts Robert flight test similar to SpaceX’s Demo-2. planning to fly privately paying passengers on its fourth Behnken and Douglas Hurley were scheduled to lift off Despite the delays, NASA has been able to keep a fairly crewed mission in 2021. “I think that will be the movie May 30 and reach the International Space Station (ISS) tight cap on Commercial Crew Program costs, with mission,” SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer the following day. An initial launch attempt on May 27 was SpaceX’s contract growing from $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion Gwynne Shotwell tells Aviation Week, referring to a project canceled due to poor weather. in six years and Boeing’s from $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion. announced on May 5 between actor Tom Cruise and NASA The launch was to be the 85th flight of a Falcon 9 and The figures, however, do not include the extra $1 billion to film aboard the ISS. SpaceX’s first with people. “It’s super exciting to see this,” NASA has spent to buy additional rides on the Soyuz “We need popular media to inspire a new generation of SpaceX founder, CEO and Chief Engineer Elon Musk tells during the delays, the OIG audit shows. engineers and scientists to make NASA’s ambitious plans Aviation Week. “I never thought it would happen.” Overall, NASA awarded more than $8.2 billion in Space a reality,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine wrote on How long Behnken, 49, and Hurley, 53, will remain on- Act Agreements and contracts under two Commercial Crew Twitter. “NASA is excited to work with Tom Cruise on a board the ISS has yet to be determined. Development phases, the Commercial Crew Integrated Ca- film aboard the space station.” SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner pability initiative, the Certification Products Contract and SpaceX has agreements to fly nonprofessional astronauts programs—funded in 2014 for development, testing and the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability. Selected with Houston- based Axiom Space, which is developing a operational missions—are so late to the finish line that companies contributed funding to the programs as well. commercial habitation module to be attached to the ISS, NASA plans to reassign the test pilots to the ISS crew to NASA estimates the commercial partnering approach and with Space Adventures, which previously brokered eight help plug staffing shortfalls as paid rides on Russian Soyuz cost $20-30 billion less than what it would have spent to tourist flights to the ISS onboard Russian Soyuz capsules capsules come to an end. develop a low-Earth-orbit transportation system under between 2001 and 2009. The company also has a deposit Since the space shuttles were retired in 2011, Soyuz traditional cost-plus-award-fee contracts, says NASA’s from Japanese entrepreneur Yusaku Maezawa for a flight spacecraft have been the sole means of flying crew to and Commercial Development director Phil McAlister. on its next-generation Starship spacecraft around the Moon. from the ISS, a service that has cost the U.S. more than Cutting development cost was not the program’s only Shotwell expects the Starship to be ready to fly in half the $4 billion since 2006, according to a NASA Office of Inspec- goal. NASA also wanted a next-generation spaceship that six years of development time it took for the Crew Dragon. tor General (OIG) audit in November 2019. would be far safer than anything previously flown. The “We’ve learned so much in six years,” she says. “It would be The station currently is staffed by just a single U.S. as- agency set a requirement that the Commercial Crew ve- a major company fail if we’re not flying people in half that tronaut and a pair of Russian cosmonauts, half the usual hicles be designed to limit the risk of loss of life to 1:270 amount of time or less.” crew size. If all goes well with the Demo-2 mission, Behnken flights and limit the risk of loss of mission to 1:60 flights. “I don’t think we would have gotten this far without and Hurley will transfer to the ongoing Expedition 63 crew The numbers and methodologies for risk assessment were NASA’s help,” Musk adds. “I’m super grateful for the sup- for up to four months. The mission duration will largely be the subject of hot debate, but they were useful for the com- port of NASA. [Demo-2] is fundamentally a NASA mission determined by SpaceX’s progress preparing the next Crew panies to identify which systems warranted the best use that we are supporting here.” c Dragon spacecraft for flight on the first Post-Certification of their time and money to improve, says Patricia Sanders, Mission (PCM), Crew-1, says ISS Program Manager Kirk head of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, which serves A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon capsule Shireman. as an independent NASA safety watchdog. poised at the remodeled Kennedy Space Center LC39A “We’ll be watching the preparation of the Crew-1 vehicle, “NASA was trying to drive the design changes needed to ahead of the company’s first human spaceflight. and when we’re confident it’s just about ready to go, that’s get the loss-of-crew numbers as low as possible,” Sanders when we’d like to bring home Demo-2,” Shireman told re- tells Aviation Week. Check 6 SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and SpaceX President SPACEX porters before launch. “That way, we can maximize the The agency did this by mitigating some of the risk with and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell talked with utility of work aboard the ISS and minimize the amount operational activities such as conducting detailed inspec- Irene Klotz in the runup to the first NASA Commercial Crew

LOGO PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK of time there is a crew of one, while still maintaining the tions of the capsules aboard the ISS to check for micromete- launch: AviationWeek.com/podcast

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 53 SPACE

The Sudden (and Untimely) one of two U.S. national security space launch providers. The revised plan, however, retroactively changes the Exit of NASA’s Human timing and terms under which the Gateway elements were procured. Spaceflight Chief Additional details of NASA’s accelerated blueprint for the Artemis Moon exploration initiative have not yet been NO IMPACT TO DEMO-2 FLIGHT TEST IS EXPECTED released. > Bridenstine hired Loverro specifically because of his 40 > LOVERRO ON THE JOB JUST FIVE MONTHS years of experience crafting space policy, managing technical programs and introducing novel contracting mecha- Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral nisms for the Defense Department and the National Recon- naissance Office. Those skills seemed to be a good fit after ne sign of how far NASA is willing to go in its quest Vice President Mike Pence told Bridenstine to accomplish to land astronauts on the Moon in 2024—four years the 2024 Moon landing “by any means necessary.” Oearlier than previously planned—came during the But Loverro’s maverick ways proved too much for NASA. agency’s announcement of design contracts for human On May 18, Loverro was asked to resign, and he complied, ef- lunar landing systems. fective immediately. He had been on the job just five months. NASA revealed that the lunar-orbiting Gateway, in- NASA has declined to comment on the reason or the tim- tended to be the building block for an international col - ing of Loverro’s departure, which came three days before he laboration to explore and exploit the Moon, was unlikely was to chair the Flight Readiness Review for the agency’s first to be part of the architecture for the first crewed landing. launch of astronauts from the U.S. since the end of the shuttle program in 2011. Launch of the SpaceX Demo-2 flight test was targeted for May 30 following a scrub on May 27 due to weather. “I am deeply concerned over this sud-

JOEL KOWSKY/NASA den resignation, especially eight days before the first scheduled launch of U.S.

Doug Loverro was asked to resign as associate administrator for human exploration and operations after five months on the job. astronauts on U.S. soil in almost a de - cade,” U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.) said in a statement. “Under this administration, we’ve seen a pattern of abrupt departures that have disrupted our efforts at human spaceflight.” In a farewell letter to employees, Loverro noted that leaders are sometimes called on to take technical, political or personal risks, all of which “have potential consequences if we judge them incorrectly. “The Gateway is important for a sustainable architecture,” “I took such a risk earlier in the year because I judged NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine told reporters on April it necessary to fulfill our mission. Now, over the balance 30. “But it also is important to note that we have the prior- of time, it is clear that I made a mistake in that choice for ity to get to the Moon by 2024, and we believe that does not which I alone must bear the consequences,” Loverro wrote. require the Gateway. In fact, I would go as far as to say it’s not Loverro declined to elaborate but told Aviation Week that likely that we will use the Gateway for the 2024 mission.” if he were going to do everything all over again, he would not Lead architect for the revamped Moon plan, ordered do anything differently. “I have no regrets,” Loverro says. by the Trump administration in March 2019, has been He also said his resignation is unrelated to an ongo - space policy guru Douglas Loverro, whom Bridenstine ing NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) audit of the recruited last year after sidelining longtime spaceflight Artemis exploration strategy. “That OIG report that is chief William Gerstenmaier. auditing Artemis strategy has barely just begun, so there In addition to cutting the Gateway out of the critical was no connection with that particular OIG audit and path for a 2024 landing, Loverro planned to consolidate anything to do with me,” Loverro says. the launches of the first two Gateway segments by having With Loverro’s departure, Bridenstine tapped former them integrated on the ground and launched as combined astronaut Kenneth Bowersox to serve as acting associ- modules on a single heavy-lift commercial booster. ate administrator for human exploration and operations, The plan requires a payload fairing longer than any his second time at the job. Bowersox filled in following currently available, but the fairing upsize is among the Gerstenmaier’s sudden reassignment in July 2019 and requirements for companies that are bidding to become served until Loverro joined NASA in December. c

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

The Sudden (and Untimely) one of two U.S. national security space launch providers. FAST The revised plan, however, retroactively changes the Exit of NASA’s Human timing and terms under which the Gateway elements were procured. 5 Spaceflight Chief Additional details of NASA’s accelerated blueprint for the Artemis Moon exploration initiative have not yet been NO IMPACT TO DEMO-2 FLIGHT TEST IS EXPECTED released. > Bridenstine hired Loverro specifically because of his 40 Fast Five With > LOVERRO ON THE JOB JUST FIVE MONTHS years of experience crafting space policy, managing technical programs and introducing novel contracting mechanisms for the Defense Department and the National Recon- Elon Musk Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral naissance Office. Those skills seemed to be a good fit after ne sign of how far NASA is willing to go in its quest Vice President Mike Pence told Bridenstine to accomplish to land astronauts on the Moon in 2024—four years the 2024 Moon landing “by any means necessary.” As two NASA astronauts prepared to Oearlier than previously planned—came during the But Loverro’s maverick ways proved too much for NASA. launch on the flight test of SpaceX’s agency’s announcement of design contracts for human On May 18, Loverro was asked to resign, and he complied, ef- lunar landing systems. fective immediately. He had been on the job just five months. Crew Dragon transportation system— NASA revealed that the lunar-orbiting Gateway, in- NASA has declined to comment on the reason or the tim- the company’s first human space- tended to be the building block for an international col - ing of Loverro’s departure, which came three days before he laboration to explore and exploit the Moon, was unlikely was to chair the Flight Readiness Review for the agency’s first flight—SpaceX founder, CEO and chief to be part of the architecture for the first crewed landing. launch of astronauts from the U.S. since the end of the shut- engineer Elon Musk spoke with Aviation tle program in 2011. Launch of the SpaceX Demo-2 flight test was targeted for May 30 Week & Space Technology Space following a scrub on May 27 due to weather. Editor on May 23 about “I am deeply concerned over this sud- Irene Klotz

JOEL KOWSKY/NASA den resignation, especially eight days new beginnings and lessons learned. before the first scheduled launch of U.S. SPACEX

Doug Loverro was asked to resign as associate administrator for Demo-2 will be SpaceX’s 85th Falcon could cause control disturbance or for going back and forth to the Moon human exploration and operations 9 launch. What’s the vibe like to have overheat things. We’ve looked at this or for going to Mars. after five months on the job. people aboard for the first time? The six ways to Sunday, so it’s not that I stakes are much higher, of course. think this will fail. It’s just that I worry Do you think having NASA as a devel- astronauts on U.S. soil in almost a de - You can always rebuild a satellite. a bit that it is asymmetric on the back opment partner speeded things up or cade,” U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.) With loss of life, there’s no rebuilding shell and you could have a strange sort slowed down the process? I suppose said in a statement. “Under this admin- that. We’ve gone to extreme lengths to of roll coupling as you come in if you both. I don’t think we would have istration, we’ve seen a pattern of abrupt review safety standards—the design turn too much. I think this is low-risk, gotten this far without NASA’s help. departures that have disrupted our ef- of the rocket, the manufacture of the but that’s what I would put as my big- On the other side, once the system is forts at human spaceflight.” rocket. We’ve turned over every stone gest concern. working, there is a tendency at NASA In a farewell letter to employees, Loverro so many times I’ve lost count. NASA to want to keep using that same sys- noted that leaders are sometimes called has been an integral part of those It’s been 18 years for SpaceX to get tem. We’re going to push for the on to take technical, political or personal reviews. We’ve had multiple outside to this point. If you were doing this next-generation system, which NASA risks, all of which “have potential conse- agencies, like the Aerospace Safety all over again, would you do anything is also supporting, with the Starship to quences if we judge them incorrectly. Advisory Panel and others, also review differently to make this path shorter? the Moon. I’m super grateful for the “The Gateway is important for a sustainable architecture,” “I took such a risk earlier in the year because I judged things, so the level of scrutiny is much Hindsight is always 20-20. There are a support of NASA. We definitely would NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine told reporters on April it necessary to fulfill our mission. Now, over the balance higher than for satellite missions. lot of design decisions I think I would not be where we are without that. 30. “But it also is important to note that we have the prior- of time, it is clear that I made a mistake in that choice for have made differently. The architec- This is fundamentally a NASA mis- ity to get to the Moon by 2024, and we believe that does not which I alone must bear the consequences,” Loverro wrote. What do you think is the riskiest part ture that Dragon uses—blunt-body sion that we are supporting here. require the Gateway. In fact, I would go as far as to say it’s not Loverro declined to elaborate but told Aviation Week that of the system? The part that I would reentry with hypergolic propellants likely that we will use the Gateway for the 2024 mission.” if he were going to do everything all over again, he would not worry most about would be reentry, and side-mounted thrusters—made Are you thinking about taking a ride Lead architect for the revamped Moon plan, ordered do anything differently. “I have no regrets,” Loverro says. which won’t happen, hopefully, for a sense at the time, but we just did not on Crew Dragon? Probably not, be - by the Trump administration in March 2019, has been He also said his resignation is unrelated to an ongo - few months from now. With Dragon 1, have any clue of what a system looks cause I need to focus on advancing space policy guru Douglas Loverro, whom Bridenstine ing NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) audit of the we have a simple conic on the leeward like that is able to create a base on the Starship. The goal of SpaceX has al- recruited last year after sidelining longtime spaceflight Artemis exploration strategy. “That OIG report that is side—essentially the back shell—of Moon and a city on Mars. ways been to create the technologies chief William Gerstenmaier. auditing Artemis strategy has barely just begun, so there the spacecraft, so it’s really quite sym- Starship is kind of that thing, so to extend life beyond Earth, to make In addition to cutting the Gateway out of the critical was no connection with that particular OIG audit and metrical, with no particular protuber- I guess if I could go back in time, I us a spacefaring civilization and a mul- path for a 2024 landing, Loverro planned to consolidate anything to do with me,” Loverro says. ances or anything. Whereas with Crew would probably not use hypergolic tiplanet species. I certainly would en- the launches of the first two Gateway segments by having With Loverro’s departure, Bridenstine tapped former Dragon, because we have the escape propellants, because they’re very joy going to orbit, but it would take up them integrated on the ground and launched as combined astronaut Kenneth Bowersox to serve as acting associ- thrusters side-mounted into the back expensive and difficult to handle, a lot of time, and then I would not be modules on a single heavy-lift commercial booster. ate administrator for human exploration and operations, shell, that creates an asymmetry. If and I wouldn’t use a blunt-body re - able to work on Starship. And I have The plan requires a payload fairing longer than any his second time at the job. Bowersox filled in following you rotate too much, then you could entry vehicle. These are all design Tesla obligations as well. I certainly currently available, but the fairing upsize is among the Gerstenmaier’s sudden reassignment in July 2019 and potentially catch the plasma in the decisions that work fairly well for would like to go, at some point, to the requirements for companies that are bidding to become served until Loverro joined NASA in December. c SuperDraco escape-thruster pods and Earth orbit but are not well-suited Moon or Mars.” c

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 55 SPACE A GIANT LEAP FOR SPACEX

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, left, and NASA astronauts Doug Hurley, center, and Bob Behnken talked on March 1, 2019, before the Demo-1 mission.

ASA Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral THE STORY OF SPACEX’S That project may sound audacious, but 12 years ago, path to human spaceﬂ ight watching Musk’s Falcon 1 rockets blow up over Omelek Island in the Marshall Islands’ Kwajalein Atoll, it would COMMERCIAL begins, of course, with have seemed similarly far-fetched that two veteran NASA CREW Elon Musk, who is now astronauts would be blasting o aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 COUNTDOWN deep in the design and rocket in a week to test its new Crew Dragon capsule. Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of making testing of a spaceship to humanity an interplanetary species. The ﬁ rst step was to design a safe, reliable rocket that was easier and less expen- SESC P colonize Mars.

lion, is followed two years later by a $1.6 bil- SpaceX Steps to Human Spaceflight lion Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-1) contract for ISS cargo ight services. Technology entrepreneur Elon Musk started SpaceX with the goal of building an inexpensive, reliable rocket to launch satellites—and then September 2008 After three successive people—to orbit with the ultimate goal of colonizing Mars. After 18 years, failures, Falcon 1 reaches orbit on Sept. 29, 2008, delivering a test payload called SpaceX is on the verge of turning the Falcon 9 rocket Dragon capsule into Ratsat into an orbit at an altitude of 386- a crewed transportation system. Here is a look at the company’s 400 mi. Musk milestones along the way. said that if the launch had failed, SpaceX, which SA ES ASA March 2002 August 2006 was nearly out Elon Musk, 30, SpaceX wins a of money, would founds Space Explo- NASA Space Act have shut down. SPACEX ration Technologies, Agreement to nicknamed SpaceX, develop a cargo July 2009 Falcon 1 makes a fth and and begins devel- resupply line to nal ight from Omelek Island, part of the oping the Falcon 1 rocket, with the goal of the International Space Station (ISS). The Marshall Islands’ Kwajalein Atoll, putting launching small payloads for $6 million per Commercial Orbital Transportation Services Malaysia’s RazakSAT into orbit to complete ight. DARPA buys the rst two missions. (COTS) contract, ultimately worth $396 mil- SpaceX’s rst successful commercial

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE A GIANT LEAPLEAP FOR SPACEX > DEMO-2 TO PAVE WAY FOR > THE COMPANY’S LONG-TERM COMMERCIAL SERVICE GOAL IS MARS

sive to manufacture and operate than currently available With the Human Landing Systems award, NASA’s busi- systems. Musk and a team of about 30 employees set about ness with SpaceX has grown to $8.4 billion through 2024, developing the Falcon 1, a 68-ft.-tall , two-stage, liquid-oxygen with $7.7 billion allotted to cargo and crew transportation, and RP-1 kerosene-fueled booster. an April 2018 audit by NASA’s O ce of Inspector General About that time, NASA, facing the end of the space shut- shows. An additional $614 million has been awarded to tle program, was casting about for options to fl y cargo and SpaceX for launches of seven NASA science satellites. eventually crew to the International Space Station (ISS). The SpaceX has also broken into the national security space agency set up a Commercial Orbital Transportation Services market, winning contracts worth a combined $767 million (COTS) demonstration competition and received 21 proposals since its fi rst U.S. Air Force launch contract in March 2017. from 20 companies. SpaceX, which had yet to launch a single After reaching orbit twice, Falcon 1 was retired in 2009. rocket, was one of six companies awarded Space Act Agree- SpaceX is now in its fi fth and fi nal version of the Falcon 9, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, left, ments in August 2006 to develop and demonstrate COTS . which has fl own 84 times, with one failure and one launch- and NASA astronauts NASA’s initial $278 million investment in SpaceX has helped pad accident ahead of fl ight. Doug Hurley, center, and create a company that now employs more than 7,500 people Now 18 years in the making, Musk’s dream to fl y people and is worth in excess of $30 billion. From COTS, SpaceX went in space is about to take wing, with U.S. Air Force Col. Bob Behnken talked on March 1, on to win one of two Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) Robert Behnken and U.S. Marine Col. Douglas Hurley 2019, before the Demo-1 mission. contracts to fly cargo to and from the ISS. When NASA scheduled to launch aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon cap- awarded the CRS contracts in December 2008, SpaceX’s sule on May 30. An initial attempt on May 27 was scrubbed fl ight record stood at three Falcon 1 failures and one success. due to weather.

ASA SpaceX then won development contracts for NASA’s “The folks at SpaceX as well as the Commercial Crew Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral companion Commercial Crew Program, launch service Team [at NASA] have just spent a ton of time working on contracts to fl y NASA science satellites and a fl ight service this vehicle and honing it to the vehicle that is right now,” THE STORY OF SPACEX’S That project may sound audacious, but 12 years ago, contract to ferry astronauts to and from the ISS. NASA Hurley says. “It’s been through all kinds of di¤ erent testing, path to human spacefl ight watching Musk’s Falcon 1 rockets blow up over Omelek hopes to start crew ferry fl ights in October. culminating a few months ago with the infl ight abort, which Island in the Marshall Islands’ Kwajalein Atoll, it would In April 2020, NASA made another commitment to is probably one of the most incredible things I’ve ever seen COMMERCIAL begins, of course, with have seemed similarly far-fetched that two veteran NASA spend $135 million over the next 10 months to help assess in person. It’s an outstanding fl ying machine.” CREW Elon Musk, who is now astronauts would be blasting o aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 whether SpaceX technology in development for the Mars- For Musk, the leap into human orbital fl ight has taken COUNTDOWN deep in the design and rocket in a week to test its new Crew Dragon capsule. class transport spacecraft, called Starship, can be quickly far longer than expected. “If we’re going to have a base on Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of making repurposed to help NASA fulfi ll a plan from the adminis- the Moon and get people to Mars,” he tells Aviation Week, testing of a spaceship to humanity an interplanetary species. The fi rst step was to tration of President Donald Trump to land a pair of astro- “we better improve our progress—a lot—for it to happen design a safe, reliable rocket that was easier and less expen- nauts on the south pole of the Moon in 2024. before we’re dead.” c SESC P colonize Mars. lion, is followed two years later by a $1.6 bil- mission. Plans for an upgraded Falcon 1 objectives of to y will be approximately $20 million per SpaceX Steps to Human Spaceflight lion Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-1) are shelved, and SpaceX shifts its focus COTS Demo seat. At the time, rides on a Russian Soyuz contract for ISS cargo ight services. to developing the Falcon 9 and a launch Flights 2 and 3 capsule cost NASA $76 million . Technology entrepreneur Elon Musk started SpaceX with the goal of complex at Cape Canaveral AFS. into a single mis- building an inexpensive, reliable rocket to launch satellites—and then September 2008 After three successive sion, and Dragon September failures, Falcon 1 reaches orbit on Sept. 29, becomes the 2014 NASA people—to orbit with the ultimate goal of colonizing Mars. After 18 years, ASA 2008, delivering a test payload called rst commercial selects SpaceX SpaceX is on the verge of turning the Falcon 9 rocket Dragon capsule into Ratsat into an orbit at an altitude of 386- SPACEX spacecraft to reach the ISS. SpaceX begins and Boeing to a crewed transportation system. Here is a look at the company’s 400 mi. Musk working on its CRS-1 contract in October. develop com- milestones along the way. mercial space said that if the EASASA launch had failed, December taxis under its SpaceX, which 2013 Falcon 9 Commercial Crew Program. SA ES ASA March 2002 August 2006 was nearly out June 2010 Falcon 9 debuts with the launch makes its rst Elon Musk, 30, SpaceX wins a of money, would of a Dragon quali cation spacecraft on ight to geosta- May 2015 SpaceX conducts a Crew Dragon founds Space Explo- NASA Space Act have shut down. SPACEX June 10, 2010. tionary transfer pad abort test, proving the capsule’s emer- ration Technologies, Agreement to orbit with the gency escape system. nicknamed SpaceX, develop a cargo July 2009 Falcon 1 makes a fth and December 2010 On its second Falcon launch of the SPACEX and begins devel- resupply line to nal ight from Omelek Island, part of the 9 mission, SpaceX launches a Dragon SES-8 communications satellite. June 2015 After a string of 18 successful oping the Falcon 1 rocket, with the goal of the International Space Station (ISS). The Marshall Islands’ Kwajalein Atoll, putting spacecraft test capsule. Falcon 9 ights, a 19th launch on June 28, launching small payloads for $6 million per Commercial Orbital Transportation Services Malaysia’s RazakSAT into orbit to complete May 2014 SpaceX unveils the design for its during the CRS-7 mission for NASA, ends ight. DARPA buys the rst two missions. (COTS) contract, ultimately worth $396 mil- SpaceX’s rst successful commercial May 2012 NASA agrees to combine the Crew Dragon spacecraft and says the price 2.5 min. after lifto due to overpressuriza-

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 5 SPACE

tion of the sec- put on permanent display outside SpaceX space shuttles, NASA ond-stage liquid headquarters in Hawthorne, California. was later modified oxygen tank. The and updated by Dragon cargo September SpaceX for the ship survives the 2016 SpaceX Commercial Crew explosion but loses a Falcon program. is not config- 9 rocket and ured to deploy NASA Spacecom’s March 2017 SpaceX refurbishes and re- parachutes and is lost at splashdown. The Amos-6 sat- US-LAUNCHREPORT.COM flies a Falcon 9 booster for the first time, Falcon fleet is grounded for six months. ellite in a launchpad explosion at Cape sending the SES-10 communications

Canaveral AFS prior to a routine static satellite SPACEX November 2015 SpaceX demonstrates test fire. The accident is traced to a failed into orbit. Crew Dragon SuperDraco propulsive composite overwrapped pressure vessel The boost- descent capabilities during a tethered flight (COPV), which is used to store helium to er, which test at the company’s rocket development pressurize propellant tanks. NASA and the previously facility in McGregor, Texas. Air Force, which started buying SpaceX was used for launch services in April 2016, call for the the CRS-8 December 2015 SpaceX recovers from the COPVs to be redesigned. mission in April 2016, makes a successful CRS-7 accident and not only launches 11 second landing, this time on a drone ship satellites for Orbcomm but also success- February 2017 NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in the Atlantic Ocean. fully lands the Falcon 9 first stage for the Launch Complex 39A is back in business as first time. The rocket touches down on a a launchpad for SpaceX Falcon rockets. The June 2017 NASA agrees for the first time to landing pad at Cape Canaveral AFS. It is pad, used to launch Saturn V rockets and the use a previously flown Dragon spacecraft.

Boeing Regroups and Both SpaceX and Boeing faced unexpected technical hurdles with their capsules’ parachutes, launch abort engines Cheers SpaceX On and other systems. SpaceX also had to recover from two Falcon 9 rocket failures—first in 2015 during a cargo run to the ISS and the second a year later during propellant SECOND UNCREWED FLIGHT TEST IS ON TAP FRANK MICHAUX/NASA > loading for a routine prelaunch static fire test. > CREW FERRY FLIGHTS PLANNED TO START IN 2021 Despite vastly different cultures and a significant difference in NASA funding—SpaceX’s 2014 award was for Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral $2.6 billion, 38% less than Boeing’s $4.2 billion—until recently the companies were neck and neck in a low-key race n the wall in Elon Musk’s office is a framedAviation to be the first to fly crew to the ISS. Week & Space Technology cover from March 2004 that That ended in December when software problems prevent- Oreads “David and Goliath: Can Tiny SpaceX Rock ed Boeing’s uncrewed CST-100 from reaching the ISS for a Boeing?” (AW&ST March 29, 2004). trial run. In the aftermath, other problems were uncovered, “It’s kind of a comical photo, to be frank, because I think forcing Boeing to review 1 million lines of code and schedule the implied answer is ‘no,’” Musk tells Aviation Week. a second uncrewed Starliner flight test for later this year. No one is laughing now, least of all Boeing, which won a And so it is Musk’s SpaceX that is poised to fly first, send- NASA Commercial Crew Transportation Capability con- ing NASA astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley tract for development, test and flight services along with into orbit for what will be the company’s first human space- SpaceX in September 2014. flight and the first U.S. crewed launch since 2011. At the time, Musk’s SpaceX, founded in 2002, had “I’m just happy that someone is getting ready to fly,” says launched five Falcon 1 rockets—the first three of which Boeing astronaut Chris Ferguson, whose flight test aboard failed—and a dozen Falcon 9s. Boeing was two years shy of the Starliner with NASA astronauts Michael Fincke and its centennial anniversary and had been involved with every Nicole Aunapu Mann is now not expected to occur until 2021. U.S. human spacecraft since the 1960s Mercury program. “Both companies have waited a long time for this” he adds. Although money was tight, NASA was determined to “This dream that was conceived almost a decade ago fund both companies’ development efforts, believing the is finally coming to the point where we really are going competition would spark innovation, ratchet up attention to fly commercial passengers, and we’re going to service to safety and help control costs. In the process, the Inter- the Inter national Space Station,” says Ferguson, a former national Space Station (ISS) would get some much-needed NASA astro naut who commanded the final space shuttle backup for the Russian Soyuz spacecraft that had been solely mission. “It’s literally on our doorstep, so it’s not important responsible for crew ferry flights since the U.S. retired the who wins. It’s important that we get there, and I will be at space shuttle fleet in 2011. [Kennedy Space Center] to watch Bob and Doug launch.” c Developing two space taxis not only would break reliance on Russia and shift payment for crew flight services back to Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner, pictured after U.S. companies, but it would potentially spark a new U.S. an abbreviated uncrewed flight test in December, industry for commercial human spaceflight. is expected to fly again—with crew—next year.

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE tion of the sec- put on permanent display outside SpaceX space shuttles, NASA February 2018 SPACEX omously dock NASA contract and retires the first version ond-stage liquid headquarters in Hawthorne, California. was later modified SpaceX debuts at the orbital of its Cargo Dragon capsule. Under a oxygen tank. The and updated by its long-awaited laboratory. It follow-on CRS-2 agreement, SpaceX will Dragon cargo September SpaceX for the triple-core returns to Earth use a modified version of its Crew Dragon ship survives the 2016 SpaceX Commercial Crew Falcon Heavy five days later. capsules, also known as Dragon 2, for explosion but loses a Falcon program. rocket. As a test cargo missions beginning in late 2020. is not config- 9 rocket and payload, SpaceX launches a Tesla roadster April 2019 The Crew Dragon Demo-1 ured to deploy NASA Spacecom’s March 2017 SpaceX refurbishes and re- owned by Musk into a solar orbit that capsule is destroyed during preparations May 2020 parachutes and is lost at splashdown. The Amos-6 sat- US-LAUNCHREPORT.COM flies a Falcon 9 booster for the first time, stretches as far away as the company’s for a static firing at Cape Canaveral AFS, The first Crew Falcon fleet is grounded for six months. ellite in a launchpad explosion at Cape sending the SES-10 communications ultimate goal—Mars. delaying an upcoming inflight-abort test. Dragon capsule

Canaveral AFS prior to a routine static satellite SPACEX that will fly November 2015 SpaceX demonstrates test fire. The accident is traced to a failed into orbit. May 2018 SpaceX debuts its fifth and final January 2020 with astronauts Crew Dragon SuperDraco propulsive composite overwrapped pressure vessel The boost- version of the Falcon 9 booster, featuring SpaceX conducts aboard arrives descent capabilities during a tethered flight (COPV), which is used to store helium to er, which higher engine thrust, improved landing legs its final major at Kennedy test at the company’s rocket development pressurize propellant tanks. NASA and the previously and dozens of changes to streamline recov- uncrewed flight Space Cen- facility in McGregor, Texas. Air Force, which started buying SpaceX was used for ery and reusability. The booster is certified test, demonstrating ter LC39A launch services in April 2016, call for the the CRS-8 for national security space missions and Crew Dragon’s ahead of a December 2015 SpaceX recovers from the COPVs to be redesigned. mission in April 2016, makes a successful will be used to fly NASA astronauts and, high-altitude abort planned May 30 CRS-7 accident and not only launches 11 second landing, this time on a drone ship eventually, paying passengers. capabilities. liftoff. c satellites for Orbcomm but also success- February 2017 NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in the Atlantic Ocean. fully lands the Falcon 9 first stage for the Launch Complex 39A is back in business as March 2019 An uncrewed Crew Dragon April 2020 first time. The rocket touches down on a a launchpad for SpaceX Falcon rockets. The June 2017 NASA agrees for the first time to capsule docks with the ISS on March 3, be- SpaceX completes SPACEX KIM SHIFLETT/NASA landing pad at Cape Canaveral AFS. It is pad, used to launch Saturn V rockets and the use a previously flown Dragon spacecraft. coming the first U.S. spacecraft to auton- its 20-flight CRS-1

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lighter than a comparable metallic Final Countdown rocket body with similar performance. The Alpha’s Reaver first-stage engine, a scaled-up derivative of the > INTEGRATED STAGES 1 AND 2 DUE AT VANDENBERG AFB BY AUGUST Lightning upper-stage engine, is “one of the most outstanding technical > FIRST FLIGHT TARGETS DIRECT INJECT TO 300-KM-HIGH ORBIT things we’ve done with Firefly,” says FOLLOWED BY EXPERIMENTAL RELIGHT Markusic, who describes the design as “the world’s simplest pump-fed Guy Norris Los Angeles rocket engine.” The Reaver traces

FIREFLY its origins to the single com- ssuming an ongoing se- bustor Firefly Rocket Engine ries of critical tests go (FRE-1) upper-stage engine Aaccording to plan over originally developed by Fire- the next four months, a new fly Space Systems, the pre - U.S.-built rocket will arc into decessor of today’s company. space from California some- Firefly Space Systems shut time this fall, forging a low-cost down in 2016 after a key in- route to orbit and increasing vestor withdrew, but the cur- orbital access for small- and rent company, newly backed medium-satellite providers. by Noosphere Ventures, was That is the hope of Tom relaunched as Firefly Aero - Markusic, CEO of startup space in 2017. Firefly Aerospace, which aims The Reaver, which replac- to complete the first launch es the clustered FRE-2 aero- of the two-stage Alpha rock- spike configuration proposed et from Vandenberg AFB as in the initial Alpha concept, early as September. The road has demonstrated 95% com- to liftoff has not been easy, or bustion efficiency in tests, he fast, but with final first-stage adds. The design utilizes liq- engine hot-fire tests underway uid oxygen/kerosene (LOX/ through May and infrastruc- RP-1) fuel and a combustion ture building up at the Pacific tap-off power cycle in which coast launch site, Markusic some of the exhaust energy says that “so far, everything from the main combustion looks to be on track.” chamber is diverted to power The company’s 97.6-ft.-tall the engine’s single-shaft tur- Alpha launch vehicle is de - bopumps. signed to break the cost barrier for Four Reaver Stage 1 engines will “Although others have worked on lofting payloads as large as 1,000 kg boost Firefly’s Alpha launch vehicle the tap-off cycle, no one has ever (2,200 lb.) to a 200-km (120-mi.) low with a combined thrust of more built an orbital boost engine or Earth orbit (LEO), or as much as even one that uses RP-1 propellant. than 165,000 lb. 630 kg to a 500-km sun-synchronous We’re the first ones to do that,” says orbit (SSO). With a starting price of tially exceeding, initial design goals. Markusic, making an oblique refer- $15 million, Firefly is targeting the “One thing that’s been pretty ex- ence to other space programs such lowest cost per kilogram to orbit in traordinary about the development as Blue Origin’s BE-3 liquid hydro - its vehicle class and, based on hopes of this vehicle is it has come in on gen/LOX engine developed for the for two successful flights by year- [specification in terms of] design company’s New Shepard suborbital end, is aiming for an eventual launch mass and performance,” he says. launch vehicle. cadence of two flights per month. “With respect to the rocket engine, Firefly says a key benefit of the On top of fast-track launch capa- that’s come in right out of the gate. tap-off cycle, which is also a form of bility, Firefly is basing its low-cost Usually in development programs, open-cycle gas-generator (GG) pro- equation on several key building mass grows, and there are perfor - pulsion system, is greater simplicity. blocks, including a lightweight vehi- mance deficiencies. But it’s really a Previous open-cycle engines such cle structure, a high-performance tribute to the team that we are right as the Saturn’s F1 and current RP-1- propulsion system and more afford- on design. So we expect to have full fueled systems such as SpaceX’s able avionics. As the initial production capacity very soon after the first Merlin are configured with two engines and carbon fiber composite flight. We actually see a lot of poten- combustion devices: one for thrust structure, including nonmetallic tial to add at least 20% more payload and the other for powering the LOX/ cryogenic propellant tanks, come to- capacity to Alpha in short order.” RP-1 turbomachinery. The Alpha’s gether at the company’s Briggs, Texas, The company’s optimism partially is engines are configured with only test site, Markusic says the indications based on the benefits of the composite a single combustor for both func- are positive for meeting, and poten- structure, which it says is up to 30% tions. Although tap-off has also been

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE lighter than a comparable metallic demonstrated on hydrogen-fueled June with integrated upper-stage test- Preparations at Firefly’s Space Final Countdown rocket body with similar performance. engines, Markusic says Firefly is the ing due the following month. The com- Launch Complex 2 West (SLC-2W) The Alpha’s Reaver first-stage first to apply the technique success- pleted first stage is expected to ship launch site also continue, as trans - engine, a scaled-up derivative of the fully to an RP-1-fueled design. to Vandenberg AFB in July, and the portation of key structures and as- > INTEGRATED STAGES 1 AND 2 DUE AT VANDENBERG AFB BY AUGUST Lightning upper-stage engine, is “one The Alpha’s engine design also gets 18.6-ft.-tall second stage is due to fol- semblies are getting underway from of the most outstanding technical around a perceived disadvantage of low in August. The wet dress rehearsal Texas to California. Among the first el- > FIRST FLIGHT TARGETS DIRECT INJECT TO 300-KM-HIGH ORBIT things we’ve done with Firefly,” says the tap-off cycle, which normally for the stacked vehicle, including the ements were the mobile launch stand, FOLLOWED BY EXPERIMENTAL RELIGHT Markusic, who describes the design sacrifices some propellant to cool 16.9-ft.-payload section, is scheduled a part that stabilizes the rocket on the as “the world’s simplest pump-fed the combustion chamber gases driv- for September, followed by the first pad, which was delivered to Vanden- Guy Norris Los Angeles rocket engine.” The Reaver traces ing the turbomachinery. “We found a flight attempt later the same month. berg in May. A combined transport- FIREFLY its origins to the single com- way to do this without wasting any FIREFLY PHOTOS er-erector will follow next, with the ssuming an ongoing se- bustor Firefly Rocket Engine fuel for cooling, which was pretty ex- first parts due to arrive in California ries of critical tests go (FRE-1) upper-stage engine traordinary and ultimately makes the in June. Final assembly of the unit is Aaccording to plan over originally developed by Fire- engine very efficient,” says Markusic, expected to take place in July. the next four months, a new fly Space Systems, the pre - who declines to provide details of how The initial mission, Alpha Flight 1, U.S.-built rocket will arc into decessor of today’s company. this is accomplished. “That’s our pro- will wring out the vehicle’s overall space from California some- Firefly Space Systems shut prietary, patent-pending secret sauce performance—including an experi- time this fall, forging a low-cost down in 2016 after a key in- that we really can’t share at this stage mental second-stage relight—as well route to orbit and increasing vestor withdrew, but the cur- of development,” he adds. as structural, systems and avionics orbital access for small- and rent company, newly backed Explaining the transition away responses; vehicle-to-ground system medium-satellite providers. by Noosphere Ventures, was from the once much-vaunted aero - communications; and exoatmospher- That is the hope of Tom relaunched as Firefly Aero - spike concept in the original design to ic thermal environments. Carrying a Markusic, CEO of startup space in 2017. today’s pump-fed Lightning/Reaver payload of cubesats, small satellites Firefly Aerospace, which aims The Reaver, which replac- engine configuration, Markusic says: and a dragsail to assist in deorbiting to complete the first launch es the clustered FRE-2 aero- “[This was made] because we were the upper stage, the first launch will of the two-stage Alpha rock- spike configuration proposed able to develop turbomachinery very attempt a direct-inject orbital inser- et from Vandenberg AFB as in the initial Alpha concept, quickly in house. It made going to a The integrated second stage, pictured tion to an altitude of 300 km with a early as September. The road has demonstrated 95% com- conventional rocket engine more fa- in earlier testing, is due to undergo 130-deg. inclination and a 140-deg. to liftoff has not been easy, or bustion efficiency in tests, he vorable for the vehicle as opposed final acceptance tests in July. launch azimuth. The plan to directly fast, but with final first-stage adds. The design utilizes liq- to the pressure-fed engines that we inject into orbit with a single rocket engine hot-fire tests underway uid oxygen/kerosene (LOX/ were going to use on the first ver - engine burn is considered less risky through May and infrastruc- RP-1) fuel and a combustion sion. Moving away from pressure-fed and, following payload separation, ture building up at the Pacific tap-off power cycle in which meant that the benefits of the aero - will allow for an experimental up - coast launch site, Markusic some of the exhaust energy spike were no longer as important.” per-stage relight. says that “so far, everything from the main combustion Some aspects from the first phase, In addition to the dragsail, an looks to be on track.” chamber is diverted to power however, have carried over to the cur- 18-m2 (194-ft.2) deployable device The company’s 97.6-ft.-tall the engine’s single-shaft tur- rent design, including the know-how developed as the Spinnaker 3 sat- Alpha launch vehicle is de - bopumps. to develop smaller-scale, regenera- ellite by Purdue University, other signed to break the cost barrier for Four Reaver Stage 1 engines will “Although others have worked on tively cooled, nickel-plated-copper-al- Flight 1 payloads include the NPS- lofting payloads as large as 1,000 kg boost Firefly’s Alpha launch vehicle the tap-off cycle, no one has ever loy thrust chambers. Although the Cenetix- Orbital 1 communications (2,200 lb.) to a 200-km (120-mi.) low with a combined thrust of more built an orbital boost engine or same basic design had been used in experiment developed by the U.S. Earth orbit (LEO), or as much as even one that uses RP-1 propellant. the early 1970s for the development Naval Postgraduate School for tests than 165,000 lb. 630 kg to a 500-km sun-synchronous We’re the first ones to do that,” says of the Aerojet Rocketdyne RS-25 with the U.S. Marine Corps. A series orbit (SSO). With a starting price of tially exceeding, initial design goals. Markusic, making an oblique refer- space shuttle main engines. “We had of educational and institutional pay- $15 million, Firefly is targeting the “One thing that’s been pretty ex- ence to other space programs such to learn how to do that from scratch,” loads will also be deployed for var - lowest cost per kilogram to orbit in traordinary about the development as Blue Origin’s BE-3 liquid hydro - Markusic says. “So the aerospace ious organizations, companies and its vehicle class and, based on hopes of this vehicle is it has come in on gen/LOX engine developed for the combustors were designed and built universities, including the Teachers for two successful flights by year- [specification in terms of] design company’s New Shepard suborbital using the same type of fabrication in Space Project, Hawaii Science and end, is aiming for an eventual launch mass and performance,” he says. launch vehicle. methodology and analytical tools. Technology Museum, Benchmark cadence of two flights per month. “With respect to the rocket engine, Firefly says a key benefit of the All of that went into the building of Space Systems, the University of On top of fast-track launch capa- that’s come in right out of the gate. tap-off cycle, which is also a form of Lightning and Reaver.” Southern California, Fossa Systems, bility, Firefly is basing its low-cost Usually in development programs, open-cycle gas-generator (GG) pro- The four Reaver engines for the the University of Cambridge and equation on several key building mass grows, and there are perfor - pulsion system, is greater simplicity. Flight 1 Alpha launch vehicle are un- Firefly itself. blocks, including a lightweight vehi- mance deficiencies. But it’s really a Previous open-cycle engines such dergoing acceptance tests at Briggs Although the company’s initial cle structure, a high-performance tribute to the team that we are right as the Saturn’s F1 and current RP-1- throughout May before being in- focus has been on polar and SSO propulsion system and more afford- on design. So we expect to have full fueled systems such as SpaceX’s stalled in the 61.6-ft.-tall first-stage launches from Vandenberg AFB, able avionics. As the initial production capacity very soon after the first Merlin are configured with two section for integrated tests in June. plans are also underway to develop engines and carbon fiber composite flight. We actually see a lot of poten- combustion devices: one for thrust The LOX first-stage tank, which Fire- launch capability to inclinations rang- structure, including nonmetallic tial to add at least 20% more payload and the other for powering the LOX/ fly says is the largest all-composite ing from 29 deg. to 57 deg. from Cape cryogenic propellant tanks, come to- capacity to Alpha in short order.” RP-1 turbomachinery. The Alpha’s tank of its type ever made, passed its Canaveral AFS. The East Coast site, gether at the company’s Briggs, Texas, The company’s optimism partially is engines are configured with only acceptance test on May 12. The first-stage LOX tank, the largest located at the Cape’s SLC-20 pad, test site, Markusic says the indications based on the benefits of the composite a single combustor for both func- The second-stage Lightning engine composite structure of its kind, will be activated around a year after are positive for meeting, and poten- structure, which it says is up to 30% tions. Although tap-off has also been is meanwhile set for acceptance tests in passed acceptance tests in mid-May. work at Vandenberg is completed. c

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Virgin Orbit Closes In On Cause of materials on board.” The flight also proved that the rocket’s linerless com- LauncherOne Demo Loss posite tanks could withstand stresses associated with the flight loads under > NewtonThree ENGINE SHUTS DOWN PREMATURELY AFTER 4-SEC. RUN the 747’s wing as well as the release maneuver while carrying a full load of > OVERALL MISSION PROVED THE PRINCIPLES OF AIR-LAUNCHED OPS cryogenic oxidizer. “Test flights are instrumented to Guy Norris Los Angeles yield data, and we now have a treasure trove of that,” says Virgin Orbit CEO verything with Virgin Orbit’s However, the engine ran for just Dan Hart, describing the mission loss. first LauncherOne orbital test over 4 sec. before abruptly shutting “We accomplished many of the goals Elaunch on May 25 was going down. Virgin Orbit says that “about we set for ourselves, though not as according to plan until, just seconds 9 sec. after drop, something malfunc- many as we would have liked. Never- into its flight, the first-stage engine tioned, causing the booster-stage en- theless, we took a big step forward. unexpectedly shut down, dooming the gine to extinguish, which in turn ended Our engineers are already poring rocket to an ignominious plunge into the mission.” The vehicle stayed within through the data. Our next rocket is the Pacific Ocean. the predicted downrange corridor and waiting. We will learn, adjust, and be- Yet despite the rocket’s loss, the fell into the ocean. For this mission the gin preparing for our next test, which space company says these is coming up soon.” few seconds of powered For the follow-on attempt, a second LauncherOne is close flight, plus the precisely LauncherOne’s rocket executed hours of buildup to completion at Virgin Orbit’s to the vehicle’s release, fun- engine burned briefly Long Beach, California, facili- damentally “proved out via as the Boeing 747 carrier ty, where the vehicle has been flight the foundational prin- aircraft, Cosmic Girl, banked moved to the final integration ciples of our air-launched sharply away following area of the factory ready for operations.” Just as vitally vehicle release. system-level testing. “If hard- for its space launch plans, ware changes are needed, Virgin Orbit says the wealth we’ll be able to make them of test data obtained gives it quickly, thanks to our verti- confidence that the cause of cally integrated, state-of-the- the malfunction will soon be art rocket factory,” adds the understood. company. “And if we decide The rocket test, which we want to run a few experi- marked the first bid to air- ments, we’ve got a factory full launch a liquid-fueled orbital of flight hardware we can use launch vehicle, began when for whatever tests we need.” the two-stage LauncherOne Prior to the flight, which was dropped from the com- took place eight years af - pany’s Boeing 747 carrier ter Virgin publicly revealed aircraft at an altitude of VIRGIN ORBIT ambitions to develop an air- 35,000 ft., west of the Cali- launched small-satellite rock- fornian coastal island of San Nicolas. NewtonThree was expected to burn et, Will Pomerantz, Virgin Orbit’s vice The 747, flown to the launch zone from for just under 3 min., accelerating president of special projects, set expec- Virgin Orbit’s Mojave Air and Space LauncherOne to around 8,000 mph. tations for the mission. “History is not Port base by chief test pilot Kelly Following main-engine cutoff and stage terribly kind to maiden flights,” he said. Latimer and co-pilot Todd Ericson, separation, the smaller NewtonFour “Taking my best faith estimate, about dropped the 57,000-lb. rocket while upper stage was then due to continue half of maiden flights fail. So that’s sort executing a special zoom climb pitch- accelerating a special test payload into of the historical odds we’re up against.” up maneuver. a polar orbit at around 17,500 mph. Following the LauncherOne fail- Following the release, the 747 Virgin Orbit says the short-lived ure, private spaceflight pioneers Elon banked steeply away, and 5 sec. later flight successfully demonstrated “all Musk, founder and CEO of SpaceX, the rocket’s NewtonThree first-stage of our prelaunch procedures, captive and Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck liquid oxygen/RP-1 engine ignited carry flight out to the drop site, clean were among those who sent messag- automatically. Virgin notes that “on telemetry lock from multiple dishes, es of sympathy and encouragement. our first ever attempt, we achieved in- a smooth pass through the racetrack, Commenting on Twitter, Musk wrote: air ignition and steady state operation terminal count, and a clean release “Orbit is hard. Took us four attempts of our main stage rocket engine,” and from the aircraft.” The manufactur- with Falcon 1.” Three Falcon 1s were the company adds that once the engine er adds that the event “marked our lost in launch attempts in 2006-08 was running, guidance and control sys- first flight with cryogenic liquid oxy- before the fourth vehicle was success- tems steered LauncherOne along its gen loaded into the rocket—and only fully launched into orbit in September predicted trajectory. our second-ever flight with cryogenic 2008. c

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Virgin Orbit Closes In On Cause of materials on board.” The flight also NASA Lays Out Policy Blueprint wrote in a summary of the Artemis proved that the rocket’s linerless com- Accords presented to the NASA Ad- LauncherOne Demo Loss posite tanks could withstand stresses for International Moon Exploration visory Council’s Regulatory and Policy associated with the flight loads under Committee on May 15. > NewtonThree ENGINE SHUTS DOWN PREMATURELY AFTER 4-SEC. RUN the 747’s wing as well as the release POLICY ESTABLISHES KEEP-OUT ZONES FOR MINING OPERATIONS With backing from the National maneuver while carrying a full load of > Space Council, the State Department > OVERALL MISSION PROVED THE PRINCIPLES OF AIR-LAUNCHED OPS cryogenic oxidizer. > AGENCY REAFFIRMS USE OF SPACE FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES and other U.S. agencies, NASA now in- “Test flights are instrumented to tends to move forward to secure agree- Guy Norris Los Angeles yield data, and we now have a treasure Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral ments with other countries that would trove of that,” says Virgin Orbit CEO bind them to the Artemis Accords. verything with Virgin Orbit’s However, the engine ran for just Dan Hart, describing the mission loss. ountries interested in joining surface sorties. The Gateway also First and foremost, partners must af- first LauncherOne orbital test over 4 sec. before abruptly shutting “We accomplished many of the goals the U.S. Artemis Moon pro - would serve as a technology testbed for firm that their activities in space will Elaunch on May 25 was going down. Virgin Orbit says that “about we set for ourselves, though not as Cgram will be asked to contrib- eventual human exploration of Mars. be for peaceful purposes, Gold notes. according to plan until, just seconds 9 sec. after drop, something malfunc- many as we would have liked. Never- ute more than hardware: NASA wants “As we move forward with the “That’s at the very heart of the Out- into its flight, the first-stage engine tioned, causing the booster-stage en- theless, we took a big step forward. potential partners to commit to up- Artemis program . . . we need a new er Space Treaty and, of course, is a unexpectedly shut down, dooming the gine to extinguish, which in turn ended Our engineers are already poring holding protocols for deep-space ex- legal framework that can keep up with vital principle for any civil space pro- rocket to an ignominious plunge into the mission.” The vehicle stayed within through the data. Our next rocket is ploration and development, including this ambitious activity. That’s what the gram,” he says. the Pacific Ocean. the predicted downrange corridor and waiting. We will learn, adjust, and be- Yet despite the rocket’s loss, the fell into the ocean. For this mission the gin preparing for our next test, which space company says these is coming up soon.” few seconds of powered For the follow-on attempt, a second LauncherOne is close flight, plus the precisely LauncherOne’s rocket executed hours of buildup to completion at Virgin Orbit’s to the vehicle’s release, fun- engine burned briefly Long Beach, California, facili- damentally “proved out via as the Boeing 747 carrier ty, where the vehicle has been flight the foundational prin- aircraft, Cosmic Girl, banked moved to the final integration ciples of our air-launched sharply away following area of the factory ready for operations.” Just as vitally vehicle release. system-level testing. “If hard- for its space launch plans, ware changes are needed, Virgin Orbit says the wealth we’ll be able to make them of test data obtained gives it quickly, thanks to our verti- confidence that the cause of cally integrated, state-of-the- the malfunction will soon be art rocket factory,” adds the understood. company. “And if we decide The rocket test, which we want to run a few experi- NASA is opening discussions with partners marked the first bid to air- ments, we’ve got a factory full in the Artemis Moon exploration program launch a liquid-fueled orbital of flight hardware we can use to sign a policy agreement. launch vehicle, began when for whatever tests we need.” the two-stage LauncherOne Prior to the flight, which NASA was dropped from the com- took place eight years af - the extraction and use of indigenous Artemis Accords are meant to be,” Signatories must agree to be open pany’s Boeing 747 carrier ter Virgin publicly revealed resources such as lunar water ice. Michael Gold, NASA’s acting associate about their activities. “NASA has al- aircraft at an altitude of VIRGIN ORBIT ambitions to develop an air- Using the 1967 United Nations Out- administrator for international and in- ways been very transparent, domes- 35,000 ft., west of the Cali- launched small-satellite rock- er Space Treaty as a blueprint, NASA teragency relations, tells Aviation Week. tically and internationally, relative to fornian coastal island of San Nicolas. NewtonThree was expected to burn et, Will Pomerantz, Virgin Orbit’s vice has developed a framework for con- The Accords build on already es- our activities—where we’re going, what The 747, flown to the launch zone from for just under 3 min., accelerating president of special projects, set expec- ducting missions on and around the tablished agreements for space oper- we’re doing—and we would like part- Virgin Orbit’s Mojave Air and Space LauncherOne to around 8,000 mph. tations for the mission. “History is not Moon, which it hopes to parlay into ations, such as spacecraft registration ners on the Artemis program to follow Port base by chief test pilot Kelly Following main-engine cutoff and stage terribly kind to maiden flights,” he said. a series of bilateral agreements with requirements and emergency astro- suit and continue to do so,” Gold says. Latimer and co-pilot Todd Ericson, separation, the smaller NewtonFour “Taking my best faith estimate, about other countries. naut rescue services, and broadens The agreement also addresses the dropped the 57,000-lb. rocket while upper stage was then due to continue half of maiden flights fail. So that’s sort Operators of private lunar excur the range of activities to include the extraction and use of resources on the executing a special zoom climb pitch- accelerating a special test payload into of the historical odds we’re up against.” sions also would be asked to sign the extraction and use of resources mined Moon and other bodies by establish- up maneuver. a polar orbit at around 17,500 mph. Following the LauncherOne fail- Artemis Accords, named for NASA’s from the Moon, asteroids and Mars. ing keep-out zones and safety buffers Following the release, the 747 Virgin Orbit says the short-lived ure, private spaceflight pioneers Elon current deep-space exploration initia- The agreement, unveiled on May 15, to prevent harmful interference by banked steeply away, and 5 sec. later flight successfully demonstrated “all Musk, founder and CEO of SpaceX, tive, which includes a landing on the also expands the use of international other operators. the rocket’s NewtonThree first-stage of our prelaunch procedures, captive and Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck south pole of the Moon by a male and operability standards (AW&ST Nov. 12- “We hope there is nothing in the liquid oxygen/RP-1 engine ignited carry flight out to the drop site, clean were among those who sent messag- a female U.S. astronaut in 2024. 25, 2018, p. 30), calls for the public re- Artemis Accords that any responsi- automatically. Virgin notes that “on telemetry lock from multiple dishes, es of sympathy and encouragement. The Artemis Accords build on the lease of science data, and protects her- ble, spacefaring nation would disagree our first ever attempt, we achieved in- a smooth pass through the racetrack, Commenting on Twitter, Musk wrote: intergovernmental agreement that itage sites and artifacts on the Moon. with,” Gold says. “Even if a country air ignition and steady state operation terminal count, and a clean release “Orbit is hard. Took us four attempts legally underpins the International “With numerous countries and pri- doesn’t sign the Artemis Accords, it’s of our main stage rocket engine,” and from the aircraft.” The manufactur- with Falcon 1.” Three Falcon 1s were Space Station program and ongoing vate-sector players conducting mis- important for the U.S. to lead, not only the company adds that once the engine er adds that the event “marked our lost in launch attempts in 2006-08 work to develop international pacts sions and operations in cislunar space, in technology but also in policy. As an was running, guidance and control sys- first flight with cryogenic liquid oxy- before the fourth vehicle was success- for the planned lunar-orbiting Gateway, it’s critical to establish a common set attorney, I, of course, appreciate the tems steered LauncherOne along its gen loaded into the rocket—and only fully launched into orbit in September a small outpost intended as a staging of principles to govern the civil explo- importance of precedent, and that’s predicted trajectory. our second-ever flight with cryogenic 2008. c ground for human and robotic lunar- ration and use of outer space,” NASA what the Artemis Accords will do.” c

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Who Will Pay the Piper? By John Dowdy

he rapid onset of the novel coronavirus has were strained even before this year’s unplanned burst wreaked havoc on markets around the world, hit- of deficit spending. “There’s no question that budgetary Tting commercial aviation especially hard as load pressure will only increase now for all segments of our factors plummet, flights are canceled and suppliers cut federal budget, including defense,” Calvert said. Defense production rates and furlough workers. Amid all this dis- Secretary Mark Esper has said he is preparing for fu- ruption, defense manufacturers appear to have been rela- ture defense budget cuts and that legacy systems may tively unscathed. But defense has always been a long-cycle need to be scrapped to pay for more modern forces. business, driven more by annual budgets than daily load South Korea shows early signs of this trend, with lead- factors. And as the bill for rebuilding the global economy ers recently announcing a shift in resources to disaster

mounts, defense budgets are LOCKHEED MARTIN relief in response to the pan- sure to come under pressure. demic. Money came from COVID-19 is first and fore- education, agriculture, and most a human tragedy, and its environmental protection but continued spread is still a ma- mostly from defense. This ex- jor concern. But we must solve ample is particularly signifi- for both the virus and the econ- cant, given that South Korea omy; the dual imperative of our is still technically at war, fro- time is the desire to preserve zen in conflict with its imme- lives and livelihoods. Both will diate neighbor to the north. require substantial resources Furthermore, South Korea for public health and for eco- has been more effective than nomic rejuvenation. Countries its peers in addressing the around the world are making pandemic with a swift medi- massive investments to re- cal response and widespread build battered economies, put- testing that allowed the counting out more than $11 trillion try to reopen its economy in the last 2.5 months, with faster than other advanced more sure to follow. “GOVERNMENTS MAY SET countries. If South Korea is In the U.S., Congress passed altering its budgetary priori- the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus ties, others could follow. Aid, Relief, and Economic Se- DEFENSE BUDGETS IN LINE WITH The coronavirus has al- curity (CARES) Act at the end ready had a massive human of March, bringing the total THEIR DIMINISHED RESOURCES.” cost, resulting in approxi- stimulus thus far to $3 trillion, mately 300,000 deaths, in- which could push the fiscal 2020 cluding more than 90,000 budget deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, an eye-watering Americans, more than were killed in Vietnam, the Gulf 18.7% of the country’s GDP. Other countries have passed War, Iraq and Afghanistan combined. But the financial similar aid packages, leading to soaring debt levels cost has been even greater. The cost in the US has already around the world. And more may well be necessary: The exceeded that of all the wars the U.S. has fought over the House has passed proposals for another $3 trillion in aid, last 50 years. And if an additional $3 trillion is approved although the bill’s fate in the Senate is unclear. by Congress, the cost will surpass that of World War II. Government debt levels are already high, swelling as At this point, it is too early to predict how much the the global financial crisis of 2008 caused a drop in tax defense budget will draw down how quickly. Indeed, the revenues and a rise in social-safety-net payments. And shift might not occur immediately. Broadly speaking, two the wave of deleveraging many expected as the reces- factors have historically had the most influence on defense sion eased never materialized: From 2008 to mid-2017, spending: threats and affordability. Governments will all global government debt more than doubled, reaching calibrate the relative importance of the threats they face $60 trillion. According to the International Monetary against their new economic realities. In keeping with past Fund (IMF), this year’s increase in public-sector debt has patterns, countries may give most weight to threats, real reached 122.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) on aver- or perceived, over the near term. If there are anticipated age in developed countries. or ongoing conflicts, their defense budgets will probably Increased deficits worldwide are likely to put pres- increase. Over the longer term, however, economic fac- sure on all discretionary spend, including defense. In the tors tend to prevail, and governments may set defense U.S., military spending accounts for 15% of all federal budgets in line with their diminished resources. Either and roughly half of discretionary spending, so defense way, we face some tough decisions ahead. c may come under real pressure. Rep. Ken Calvert of Cal- ifornia, the ranking Republican on the House Appro- John Dowdy is a senior partner at McKinsey & Co. He is based priations defense subcommittee, says defense budgets in London.

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT

Who Will Pay the Piper? September 1-3, 2020 By John Dowdy Dallas, TX he rapid onset of the novel coronavirus has were strained even before this year’s unplanned burst wreaked havoc on markets around the world, hit- of deficit spending. “There’s no question that budgetary Tting commercial aviation especially hard as load pressure will only increase now for all segments of our #MROAM | factors plummet, flights are canceled and suppliers cut federal budget, including defense,” Calvert said. Defense production rates and furlough workers. Amid all this dis- Secretary Mark Esper has said he is preparing for fu- ruption, defense manufacturers appear to have been rela- ture defense budget cuts and that legacy systems may tively unscathed. But defense has always been a long-cycle need to be scrapped to pay for more modern forces. business, driven more by annual budgets than daily load South Korea shows early signs of this trend, with lead- factors. And as the bill for rebuilding the global economy ers recently announcing a shift in resources to disaster

mounts, defense budgets are LOCKHEED MARTIN relief in response to the pan- Moving Forward sure to come under pressure. demic. Money came from COVID-19 is first and fore- education, agriculture, and most a human tragedy, and its environmental protection but continued spread is still a ma- mostly from defense. This ex- at MRO Americas! jor concern. But we must solve ample is particularly signifi- for both the virus and the econ- cant, given that South Korea omy; the dual imperative of our is still technically at war, fro- • Industry in Crisis: How to build resiliency in your business in time is the desire to preserve zen in conflict with its imme- the midst of a global pandemic. lives and livelihoods. Both will diate neighbor to the north. require substantial resources Furthermore, South Korea • Navigating the World of Mergers & Acquisitions and for public health and for eco- has been more effective than Industry Consolidation nomic rejuvenation. Countries its peers in addressing the around the world are making pandemic with a swift medi- • All Hands on Deck: What can the industry realistically expect in the massive investments to re- cal response and widespread build battered economies, put- testing that allowed the coun- coming days and what role will MROs, OEMs, fuel companies, and ting out more than $11 trillion try to reopen its economy financial institutions play in helping to keep US airlines in business? in the last 2.5 months, with faster than other advanced more sure to follow. “GOVERNMENTS MAY SET countries. If South Korea is In the U.S., Congress passed altering its budgetary priori- Keynote Speakers the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus ties, others could follow. Aid, Relief, and Economic Se- DEFENSE BUDGETS IN LINE WITH The coronavirus has al- curity (CARES) Act at the end ready had a massive human of March, bringing the total THEIR DIMINISHED RESOURCES.” cost, resulting in approxi- stimulus thus far to $3 trillion, mately 300,000 deaths, in- which could push the fiscal 2020 cluding more than 90,000 budget deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, an eye-watering Americans, more than were killed in Vietnam, the Gulf 18.7% of the country’s GDP. Other countries have passed War, Iraq and Afghanistan combined. But the financial similar aid packages, leading to soaring debt levels cost has been even greater. The cost in the US has already around the world. And more may well be necessary: The exceeded that of all the wars the U.S. has fought over the House has passed proposals for another $3 trillion in aid, last 50 years. And if an additional $3 trillion is approved although the bill’s fate in the Senate is unclear. by Congress, the cost will surpass that of World War II. Government debt levels are already high, swelling as At this point, it is too early to predict how much the John Holmes Doug Parker the global financial crisis of 2008 caused a drop in tax defense budget will draw down how quickly. Indeed, the President & CEO CEO revenues and a rise in social-safety-net payments. And shift might not occur immediately. Broadly speaking, two the wave of deleveraging many expected as the reces- factors have historically had the most influence on defense AAR American Airlines sion eased never materialized: From 2008 to mid-2017, spending: threats and affordability. Governments will all global government debt more than doubled, reaching calibrate the relative importance of the threats they face $60 trillion. According to the International Monetary against their new economic realities. In keeping with past Learn more and register at: Fund (IMF), this year’s increase in public-sector debt has patterns, countries may give most weight to threats, real reached 122.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) on aver- or perceived, over the near term. If there are anticipated mroamericas.aviationweek.com age in developed countries. or ongoing conflicts, their defense budgets will probably Increased deficits worldwide are likely to put pres- increase. Over the longer term, however, economic fac- sure on all discretionary spend, including defense. In the tors tend to prevail, and governments may set defense U.S., military spending accounts for 15% of all federal budgets in line with their diminished resources. Either Diamond Sponsors and roughly half of discretionary spending, so defense way, we face some tough decisions ahead. c may come under real pressure. Rep. Ken Calvert of Cal- ifornia, the ranking Republican on the House Appro- John Dowdy is a senior partner at McKinsey & Co. He is based priations defense subcommittee, says defense budgets in London.

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JUNE 1-14, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST The F-35A: Redefining multi-role airpower.

The U.S. Air Force’s F-35A was designed to integrate and command a complex, multi-domain battlefield against highly capable adversaries – and win. It was designed with the understanding that every single sortie is an expedition of the greatest importance. With stealth, advanced sensors, networked data links, supersonic speed, fighter agility and flexible weapons capacity, the 5th Gen F-35 delivers on that vision. The F-35 redefines multi-role airpower and everything that comes with it. It gives the men and women of the U.S. Air Force a decisive advantage today, and for decades to come. Learn more at lockheedmartin.com/f35