Monthly Network Operations Report Analysis – October 2016 NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis - October 2016 Page 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 NOTICE 2 1. TOTAL TRAFFIC 3 2. ATFM DELAY AND ATTRIBUTIONS 6 3. EN-ROUTE ATFM DELAYS 7 En-Route ATFM Delay per Location 7 En-Route ATFM Delay per Delay Group 8 En-Route ATFM Delay per Flight 9 En-Route ATFM Delay Year-To-Date 10 4. AIRPORT/TMA ATFM DELAYS 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Location 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Delay Groups 11 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay per Flight 12 Airport/TMA ATFM Delay Year-To-Date 12 5. DAILY EVOLUTION 12 6. ALL AIR TRANSPORT DELAYS (SOURCE: CODA) 13 7. ATFM SLOT ADHERENCE 14 8. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS AND ISSUES 14 Planned Events 14 ACC 14 Airports 14 Disruptions 15 9. NM ADDED VALUE 16 NOTICE Traffic and Delay Comparisons All traffic and delay comparisons are between report month and equivalent month of previous year, unless otherwise stated. NM Area All figures presented in this report are for the geographical area that is within Network Manager’s responsibility (NM area). Regulation Reason Groupings The table below shows the colour coding used in the report charts. EN-ROUTE CAPACITY (ATC) AIRPORT CAPACITY (ATC) EN-ROUTE STAFFING (ATC) AIRPORT STAFFING (ATC) EN-ROUTE DISRUPTIONS (ATC) AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (ATC) EN-ROUTE CAPACITY AIRPORT CAPACITY EN-ROUTE DISRUPTIONS AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS EN-ROUTE EVENTS AIRPORT EVENTS EN-ROUTE WEATHER AIRPORT WEATHER Reporting Assumptions and Descriptions For further information on the NM Area and the regulation reason groupings, go to the Reporting Assumptions and Descriptions document available on the EUROCONTROL website at http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/network-operations-monitoring- and-reporting. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis - October 2016 Page 2 1. TOTAL TRAFFIC Monthly traffic trend Average daily traffic for last 5 Years 4,0% 34000 3,5% 3,5% 3,5% 3,2% 3,0% 32000 2,9% 3,0% 2,8% 2,5% 2,6% 30000 2,6% 2,5% 2,2% 28000 2,0% 1,7% 1,7% 1,5% 26000 1,5% 1,2% 1,3% 1,0% 24000 0,5% 22000 0,0% 20000 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR JUL OCT OCT SEP FEB JAN AUG MAY NOV JUN DEC APR MAR OCT AUG MAY NOV MAR Comparision to same month last year Rolling 12 month trend 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Traffic increased by 2.9 % in October 2016i. Average daily traffic in October 2016 was the highest ever for the month of October. Average daily traffic in October for last 5 Years 12 months rolling traffic trend Forecast dated 2016-09 3,0% 2,6% 29500 2,5% 29285 2,4% 2,5% 2,2% 2,2% 2,3% 29000 28973 2,0% 1,9% 2,0% 28676 2,0% 1,7% 28500 1,5% 1,4% 1,5%1,3% 28000 1,0% 27500 0,5% 27000 27450 27556 27942 28283 29091 0,0% 26500 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DEC APR OCT OCT AUG MAY NOV MAR BASELINE FORECAST LOW FORECAST HIGH FORECAST The traffic increase of 2.9% for October was in line with the This graph shows the variation in average daily traffic for the last baseline forecast updated in September 2016. 12-month period relative to the previous 12-months. The average daily traffic from November 2015 to October 2016 was 2.6% higher than the average from November 2014 to October 2015. The trend shows a continuous growth in traffic. In October, twelve states contributed more than 50 additional daily flights to the European local traffic[i] growth. UK and Spain each added more than 300 daily flights to the network thanks to sustained growth in both countries’ international arrival and departure flows. Italy (+138 flights/day), Portugal (excl. Azores) (+105 flights/day) and Greece (+99 flights/day) completed the top 5 contributors. The following five countries added together 424 flights to the network: Netherlands (+95 flights/day), Poland (+94 flights/day), Canary Islands (+79 flights/day), Romania (+79 flights/day) and Germany (+77 flights/day). Cyprus had the most significant growth in October 2016 (vs. October 2015) with 30% local traffic growth, mainly due to the growth on its flows from/to the Russian Federation, UK , Israel and Greece. Ukraine was the 12th contributor with 51 extra flights per day in October 2016 (vs. October 2015), recording 350 daily flights (excluding overflights) though still 30% below the pre-2014 traffic levels. With 161 fewer daily flights in October, Turkey hit its sixth consecutive month of reduced flights although its internal traffic improved and was up 5% on October 2015. Norway had 68 fewer flights per day due to a weak domestic flow, which went down 5%. The top three extra-European partners in average daily flights on flows in both directions were the United States (993 flights, up 7%), the Russian Federation (744 flights, down 4%) and the United Arab Emirates (325 flights, up 5%). Traffic flows between Europe and Egypt declined by 27% to 156 flights per day. Low-cost was the strongest market segment with a steady growth rate of 7.5%, followed by the traditional scheduled segment, which grew 2.6%. All the other market segments declined, with charter down 9.1%, all-cargo down 2.8% and business aviation down 1.3% in October. For more information on EUROCONTROL Forecasts, go to http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis - October 2016 Page 3 Eight of the top ten airports had positive traffic growth. Overall, the largest traffic increases in October 2016 were at Malaga, Birmingham, Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion, Palma and Warsaw airports. The largest traffic decreases were at Antalya, Helsinki, Berlin/Tegel, Brussels and Milano/Linate airports. The increase at Birmingham airport is explained by a high demand on charter destinations and the opening of new direct routes to the Middle East and the Caribbean. The traffic variation at Warsaw airport is due to the opening of new connections to Canada and Eastern Europe. Five of the top ten aircraft operators had more traffic compared to October 2015. The operators with the highest traffic growth were Qatar, LOT/Polish, Transavia, Ukraine International and Transavia France airlines. Germanwings, Aegean, Wideroe, Finnair and Condor recorded the highest traffic decrease. Norwegian Air Shuttle and Norwegian Air International traffic variations are due to a shift of the callsigns from NAX to IBK. The traffic variation of Olympic and Aegean is due to Aegean flights operated with Olympic callsign. LOT/Polish airline increase of traffic is due to the opening of new routes inside Europe. The Transavia and Transavia France traffic increase is mainly due to Northern European growth with direct links between UK and European capitals. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis - October 2016 Page 4 The highest traffic increases in October 2016 were in Ankara, Palma, Reykjavik, Tel Aviv and Santa Maria ACCs. Airspace realignment in Ankara and Istanbul ACCs accounts for the variation. Reykjavik ACC variation is due to increased international arrivals/departures as well as weather patterns which resulted in transatlantic flights adopting more northerly routes. The Santa Maria and Lisbon ACCs variation is due to increased traffic to/from the Canary Islands and the Azores, and South American destinations. NM Monthly Network Operations Report - Analysis - October 2016 Page 5 2. ATFM DELAY AND ATTRIBUTIONS Average daily ATFM delays EN-ROUTE Average daily ATFM delays EN-ROUTE AIRPORT/TMA AIRPORT/ TMA 20000 18394 85424 83901 18000 90000 15945 14690 80000 16000 13707 14000 70000 52210 12000 60000 44331 42446 41663 50000 38607 10000 33085 29901 40000 29651 26851 8000 24908 23984 30000 6000 20000 4000 10000 2000 0 46,2% 53,8% 44,4% 55,6% 0 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR OCT OCT AUG 2015-10 2016-10 MAY NOV MAR Total ATFM delays increased by 11.6% in October 2016i. En-route ATFM delays increased by 7.2% and airport ATFM delays increased by 15.4%. Monthly ATFM delays trend Proportion of ATFM delays in October 2016 139,4% 150% ENROUTE EVENTS 0 130% 116,0% AIRPORT EVENTS 33 110% ENROUTE DISRUPTIONS 82 82,1% AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (ATC) 126 90% 70,4% 64,9% AIRPORT STAFFING (ATC) 248 70% 56,7% ENROUTE CAPACITY 272 50% AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS 314 25,0% 23,5% 21,3% 30% 11,6% ENROUTE DISRUPTIONS (ATC) 318 28,3% 23,7% 10% AIRPORT CAPACITY (ATC) 985 -10% ENROUTE WEATHER 1319 -5,6% -30% ENROUTE STAFFING (ATC) 3605 AIRPORT CAPACITY 7308 -50% -33,7% -30,0% ENROUTE CAPACITY (ATC) 9094 AIRPORT WEATHER 9382 JUL SEP FEB JAN JUN DEC APR OCT OCT AUG MAY NOV MAR Comparison to same month last year Rolling 12 month trend 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 The rolling 12-month trend shows that ATFM delay was Airport weather (28.4%), en-route ATC capacity (27.5%) and 23.7% higher during the period November 2015 – October airport capacity (22.1%) were the main causes of ATFM delays in 2016 compared to November 2014 – October 2015. October 2016. 3928 Top 20 delay reference locations in October 2016 12% 10% 2996 AIRPORT WEATHER AIRPORT EVENTS 8% 2136 AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS AIRPORT CAPACITY 6% 1512 1348 1217 1161 1110 1097 AIRPORT DISRUPTIONS (ATC) 4% 947 866 810 780 745 AIRPORT STAFFING (ATC) 659 632 611 560 550 536 2% AIRPORT CAPACITY (ATC) ENROUTE WEATHER % total ATFM delay 0% ENROUTE EVENTS ENROUTE DISRUPTIONS ENROUTE CAPACITY ZURICH ATATURK - ENROUTE DISRUPTIONS (ATC) PARIS ORLY LANGEN ACC BREST U/ACC BREST ENROUTE STAFFING (ATC) MARSEILLE ACC MARSEILLE KARLSRUHE UAC KARLSRUHE WARSZAWA ACC WARSZAWA BARCELONA ACC BARCELONA ENROUTE CAPACITY (ATC) MAASTRICHT UAC MAASTRICHT LONDON/GATWICK BORDEAUX ACCBORDEAUX ALL ISTANBUL PARIS GAULLE CH DE BRUSSELS NATIONAL BRUSSELS BARCELONA/EL PRAT BARCELONA/EL LONDON/HEATHROW TEL AVIV/BEN GURION AMSTERDAM/SCHIPHOL ISTANBUL/SABIHA GOKCEN ISTANBUL/SABIHA THESSALONIKI/MAKEDONIA These are the top 20 delay generating locations for the reporting month with respect to total ATFM delays.