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A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Niemeier, Hans-Martin Working Paper Expanding airport capacity under constraints in large urban areas: The German experience International Transport Forum Discussion Paper, No. 2013-4 Provided in Cooperation with: International Transport Forum (ITF), OECD Suggested Citation: Niemeier, Hans-Martin (2013) : Expanding airport capacity under constraints in large urban areas: The German experience, International Transport Forum Discussion Paper, No. 2013-4, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Transport Forum, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k46n45fgtvc-en This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/97100 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Expanding Airport Capacity under Constraints in Large Urban Areas: The German Experience Discussion04 Paper 2013 • 04 Hans-Martin Niemeier University of Applied Sciences, Bremen, Germany Expanding Airport Capacity Under Constraints in Large Urban Areas: The German Experience Discussion Paper No. 2013-4 Prepared for the Roundtable on Expanding Airport Capacity under Constraints in Large Urban Areas (21-22 February 2013, Paris) Hans-Martin NIEMEIER University of Applied Sciences, Bremen, Germany February 2013 THE INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT FORUM The International Transport Forum at the OECD is an intergovernmental organisation with 54 member countries. It acts as a strategic think-tank, with the objective of helping shape the transport policy agenda on a global level and ensuring that it contributes to economic growth, environmental protection, social inclusion and the preservation of human life and well-being. The International Transport Forum organises an annual summit of Ministers along with leading representatives from industry, civil society and academia. The International Transport Forum was created under a Declaration issued by the Council of Ministers of the ECMT (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) at its Ministerial Session in May 2006 under the legal authority of the Protocol of the ECMT, signed in Brussels on 17 October 1953, and legal instruments of the OECD. The Members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, FYROM, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States. The International Transport Forum’s Research Centre gathers statistics and conducts co-operative research programmes addressing all modes of transport. Its findings are widely disseminated and support policymaking in Member countries as well as contributing to the annual summit. Discussion Papers The International Transport Forum’s Discussion Paper Series makes economic research, commissioned or carried out at its Research Centre, available to researchers and practitioners. The aim is to contribute to the understanding of the transport sector and to provide inputs to transport policy design. The Discussion Papers are not edited by the International Transport Forum and they reflect the author's opinions alone. The Discussion Papers can be downloaded from: www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/DiscussionPapers/jtrcpapers.html The International Transport Forum’s website is at: www.internationaltransportforum.org For further information on the Discussion Papers and other JTRC activities, please email: [email protected] This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. EXPANDING AIRPORT CAPACITY UNDER CONSTRAINTS IN LARGE URBAN AREAS: THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 5 2. INVESTMENT OF GERMAN AIRPORTS: OVERVIEW ................................. 7 3. CASE STUDIES OF CAPACITY EXPANSION AT SIX GERMAN AIRPORTS 11 3.1. Berlin Brandenburg International Airport „Willy Brandt“ ...................... 11 3.2. Düsseldorf Airport ......................................................................... 12 3.3. Frankfurt Airport ........................................................................... 13 3.4. Hamburg Airport ........................................................................... 14 3.5. Munich Airport .............................................................................. 14 3.6. Stuttgart ...................................................................................... 15 3.7. Some stylized facts about German airport expansion ......................... 15 4. KEY PROBLEMS OF AIRPORT INVESTMENT .......................................... 19 4.1. Transaction cost perspective ................................................................. 19 4.2. Airport Economics and Regulation .................................................... 20 4.3. Mega project cost economics .......................................................... 21 5. ASSESSMENT OF DECISIONS ON CAPACITY EXPANSION OF AIRPORTS 23 5.1. Public Planning .............................................................................. 23 5.2. Mediation ..................................................................................... 24 5.3. The role of CBA and the role of Impact Analysis ................................ 24 6. STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE GERMAN DECISION PROCESS 27 6.1. Strengths ..................................................................................... 27 6.2. Weaknesses .................................................................................. 27 6.2.1. Doubtful Demand Forecasts ......................................................... 27 6.2.2. Airport Expansion and Airport Competition .................................... 29 6.2.3. Airport Expansion and Environmental Policy ................................... 30 6.2.5. Single or Multi Hub strategy ........................................................ 34 7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING RECOMMENDATIONS ............................. 35 REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 38 Hans-Martin Niemeier — Discussion Paper 2013-4 — © OECD/ITF 2013 3 EXPANDING AIRPORT CAPACITY UNDER CONSTRAINTS IN LARGE URBAN AREAS: THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE 1. INTRODUCTION Expanding airports is a topic which can easily make it to the first page of the national press. But this is highly unlikely as “bad news” is “good news” and most often failures and scandals make it to the front page. Berlin airport or the on-going failure to open up a nearly-complete new airport has been the front runner in this regard and gained so much international attention that the association of engineers fears that the world wide renowned reputation of German engineering might be seriously damaged. Adding airport capacity is also a topic which goes beyond technical aspects. After all, at some time, in the short or long run, the airport Berlin Brandenburg „Willy Brandt“ will be in operation, but it will then be the economist to ask at what price. This will be difficult to assess not only for Berlin, but also for other major airport infrastructure projects of which some were actually built and some not. Fraport opened its new runway on 21 October 2011. In contrast, Munich Airport’s plan to build a third runway was voted down by a referendum on June 17 2012. Düsseldorf has two runways, but is only allowed to operate at single runway capacity due to environmental restrictions. In the 90’s, the city state of Hamburg resisted the proposal of the Chamber of Commerce to shift all charter traffic to Hannover airport and instead has expanded airport capacity at the inner city airport in Fuhlsbüttel. Plans for a central Northern German Airport never materialised. In this paper I like to address the following questions: 1. How have German airports extended capacity? Has capacity been expanded on an optimal scale and time? 2. What are the key problems of airport investment? 3. How have investment
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