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Travelsky Technology: a Defensive Play in China's Growing Air Travel

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Travelsky Technology: a Defensive Play in China's Growing Air Travel TravelSky Technology | March 2, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH March 2, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Watson Lau TravelSky Technology [email protected] +852 2239-1523 Edward H Xu, CFA A defensive play in China's growing air [email protected] +852 2239-1521 travel market; initiate at Overweight Industry View Stock Rating Price Target In-Line Overweight HK$13.77 TravelSky Technology ( 0696.HK, 696 HK ) Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure / China Stock Rating Overweight TSK is a major global distribution system (GDS) provider in China Industry View In-Line with a near monopoly, fostered by government regulation and Price target HK$13.77 Up/downside to price target (%) 17 customer - shareholder support. We believe TSK will benefit from Shr price, close (Feb 29, 2016) HK$11.72 China's stable air traffic growth and increasing airport expansions in 52-Week Range HK$15.60-7.30 Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 2,926 the next three to five years. Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb28,844 EV, curr (mn) Rmb24,528 China's leader in electronic ticket distribution: TravelSky (TSK) enjoys Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$79 strong shareholder support (i.e., its major airline customers are also owners) and solid customer relationships, acting as China's sole electronic ticket Fiscal Year Ending 12/14 12/15e 12/16e 12/17e ModelWare EPS (Rmb) 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.64 distribution provider for almost all Chinese airlines (more than 30), except Consensus EPS (Rmb)§ - 0.59 0.58 0.63 Spring Airlines, which has its own distribution system. While TSK shares offer Revenue, net (Rmb 5,315 5,458 6,148 6,859 investment exposure to China's outbound travel market, RMB depreciation risk mn) ModelWare net inc 1,653 1,681 1,671 1,875 is limited, and the company enjoys stable cash flow and decent ROE, which we (Rmb mn) forecast at 15-16% for 2015-17. P/E 11.9 18.6 17.3 15.4 P/BV 1.9 2.8 2.3 2.1 Positive outlook on both air travel and airport development: Our RNOA (%) 17.8 17.1 16.0 15.1 ROE (%) 18.2 16.3 14.7 15.1 analysis suggests that growth in China's outbound tourism will persist for the EV/EBITDA 8.9 14.2 11.8 10.0 next five to six years, as the current penetration ratio of Chinese passengers Div yld (%) 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 traveling abroad is low. Moreover, we are positive on domestic airport FCF yld ratio (%) 4.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 development over the next five years, amid new airport construction and Leverage (EOP) (%) (44.3) (39.1) (31.9) (34.2) Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework § = Consensus data is provided by Thomson Reuters Estimates expansion at existing airports. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Capex to peak in 2016: With the construction of a new Beijing data operations center, TSK's capex should peak at Rmb2bn in 2016, we estimate, after which free cash flow is likely to become positive. Valuation: We view TSK's share price as attractive versus its historical P/E trading band (since 2006) and global comparables. Our HK$13.77 (Rmb11.66) price target implies a multiple of 20x our 2016 EPS estimate (Rmb0.574), which we believe is justified as it is in line with valuations for the two leading global GDS players (Amadeus [20x] and Sabre Corp. [19x]), and also in view of TSK's near monopoly in one of the world's fastest-growing air travel markets Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, (in terms of traffic growth). Our price target also implies attractive upside investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict potential (17%) relative to our China transportation & infrastructure universe. of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Potential catalysts: 1) monetization of TSK's mobile application, Umetrip; 2) Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their outbound travel strength; and 3) China's airport construction boom. investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this Key risks to our view include: 1) cuts in subsidy income (from local report. governments); 2) slowdown in outbound travel; 3) further competition in += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered w ith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE international booking; and 4) regulatory and exogenous factors. restrictions on communications w ith a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 1 TravelSky Technology | March 2, 2016 MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH TravelSky: Financial Summary Exhibit 1: TSK: Financial summary Profit and Loss Statements Ratio Analysis Rmb mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Domestic carriers booking (ETD) 2,079 2,269 2,490 2,745 3,030 3,331 Growth (%) Foreign carriers booking (ETD) 409 446 490 549 621 696 Domestic carriers booking 3.4 9.1 9.8 10.2 10.4 9.9 Others (APP) 94 140 156 175 193 208 Foreign carriers booking 5.2 9.1 9.8 12.1 13.1 12.0 AIT revenues 2,582 2,854 3,136 3,470 3,843 4,235 Others 161.3 48.6 12.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 System Integration Services 700 1,040 645 774 851 936 AIT revenues 6.0 10.5 9.9 10.6 10.8 10.2 Data Network and Others 797 1,010 1,212 1,394 1,603 1,843 System Integration Services na 48.7 (38.0) 20.0 10.0 10.0 ACCA Revenue 431 432 493 542 596 656 Data Network and Others (33.4) 26.8 20.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Gross revenues 4,509 5,336 5,486 6,179 6,893 7,670 Net Revenues 13.2 18.7 2.7 12.6 11.6 11.3 Business Taxes/Other Surcharges (31) (21) (27) (31) (34) (38) Operating Profits 1.3 1.7 7.0 12.1 15.0 11.9 Net Revenues 4,479 5,315 5,458 6,148 6,859 7,632 Pretax Profits 0.6 45.1 (0.4) (0.4) 12.3 (0.6) Total Operating Expenses (3,245) (4,060) (4,115) (4,643) (5,129) (5,696) Net Profit 6.2 37.1 1.8 (0.6) 12.2 (0.8) Operating Profit 1,234 1,255 1,343 1,505 1,730 1,936 Net Profit Excl. Gov Subsidy 6.2 0.2 8.7 10.2 14.1 12.7 Net Interest Income/(Exp) 64 131 123 112 115 143 EBITDA 3.1 36.4 4.4 3.2 13.2 3.6 Share of Results of Associates 15 19 21 24 27 30 EPS 6.2 37.1 1.8 (0.6) 12.2 (0.8) Government Subsidy 0 500 410 250 250 0 Pre-tax Profit 1,312 1,905 1,897 1,890 2,122 2,109 Margins (%) Taxation (73) (213) (190) (189) (212) (211) EBITDA Margin 36.3 41.7 42.4 38.9 39.4 36.7 Minority Interest (34) (39) (27) (30) (35) (39) Operating Margin 27.5 23.6 24.6 24.5 25.2 25.4 Net Profit 1,206 1,653 1,681 1,671 1,875 1,859 Net Profit Margin 26.9 31.1 30.8 27.2 27.3 24.4 Net Profit Excl. Gov Subsidy 1,206 1,207 1,312 1,446 1,650 1,859 EBIT 1,246 1,772 1,774 1,779 2,007 1,966 Return (%) EBITDA 1,627 2,219 2,316 2,389 2,705 2,802 MW ROE 14.6 18.2 16.3 14.7 15.1 13.7 Reported EPS (Rmb) 0.41 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.64 0.64 ROA 10.8 13.0 12.1 11.0 11.3 10.3 Balance Sheet Gearing Rmb mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Net Debt/Equity (%) NC NC NC NC NC NC Net Fixed Assets 1,458 1,988 3,099 4,541 4,896 5,112 Net Interest Coverage (x) NM NM NM NM NM NM Long-term Assets/Investments 2,430 2,220 2,174 2,130 2,090 2,052 Intangible Assets 206 436 436 436 436 436 Operational Analysis Total Non-current Assets 4,094 4,644 5,708 7,107 7,421 7,600 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Short-term Bank Deposits 1,159 1,369 1,369 1,369 1,369 1,369 Air Pax. Bookings (mn) 383.5 424.6 470.7 524.2 584.4 643.1 Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,349 1,995 1,865 1,378 2,061 2,878 Domestic Airlines (mn) 366.0 405.2 449.2 500.2 557.6 613.1 Non-cash Assets 3,540 4,722 4,900 5,315 5,759 6,234 Non-domestic Airlines (mn) 17.5 19.4 21.6 24.0 26.8 30.0 Total Current Assets 7,047 8,086 8,135 8,062 9,189 10,481 Average Booking Fee (Rmb) 6.49 6.39 6.33 6.29 6.25 6.26 Total Liabilities 1,841 2,153 2,198 2,458 2,702 2,981 Domestic Airlines (Rmb) 5.68 5.60 5.54 5.49 5.43 5.43 Net Assets 9,300 10,576 11,645 12,711 13,909 15,100 Non-domestic Airlines (Rmb) 23.4 22.9 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.1 Capital and Reserves 9,078 10,319 11,361 12,397 13,559 14,712 Minority Interests 223 258 284 315 349 388 Growth (%) Capital Employed 9,300 10,576 11,645 12,711 13,909 15,100 Air Pax.
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