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Long-Term Business Growth Intact

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Long-Term Business Growth Intact Information Technology / China 696 HK Information Technology / China 2 April 2014 TravelSky Technology TravelSky Technology Target (HKD): 9.50 8.40 Upside: 15.1% 696 HK 2 Apr price (HKD): 7.30 Long-term business growth intact 1 Buy 2 Outperform (unchanged) • We expect the EBIT margin to start to improve in 2014 3 Hold after it deteriorated in 2013 4 Underperform • Settlement services, mobile apps, a cargo logistics system 5 Sell and IT outsourcing to boost earnings over the long term • Lowering 6-month target price to HKD8.40 while reiterating Outperform (2) rating Umetrip to come from advertising monetisation of Umetrip and the income, and start to contribute to rising contribution of other ancillary earnings from 2015. Meanwhile, due services. to worse-than-expected 2013 results, we lower our EBIT margin Forecast revisions (%) Kelvin Lau assumptions, leading to 2014-15E Year to 31 Dec 14E 15E 16E (852) 2848 4467 EPS cuts of 12-17%. Revenue change 0.1 0.7 n.a. [email protected] Net profit change (12.4) (16.9) n.a. ■ What we recommend Core EPS (FD) change (12.4) (16.9) n.a. The share price has fallen by 14% Source: Daiwa forecasts ■ What's new since the results were announced on While we found the 2013 results 24 March 2014, due to concerns Share price performance disappointing, we expect TravelSky about long-term margin erosion. (HKD) (%) Technology’s (TravelSky) EBIT However, as we expect the EBIT 9.0 165 margin to have bottomed out in margin to recover from 2014 and 7.9 146 2013, and revenue to rise in tandem booking growth to track the traffic 6.8 128 5.6 109 with the traffic growth of the China growth of China’s aviation industry, aviation market going forward. 4.5 90 we remain positive on the prospects Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 ■ What's the impact for the stock. Following our forecast Travelsky (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) The 2013 results were affected by a cuts, we lower our DCF-based 6- month target price to HKD8.40 surge in operating costs as a result of 12-month range 4.73-8.53 rises in operating-lease expenses from HKD9.50. However, we see the Market cap (USDbn) 2.75 and technical fees, which we believe current 2014E PER of 13x as 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 2.85 undemanding and forecast an EPS Shares outstanding (m) 2,926 were one-offs. We see the EBIT Major shareholder China TravelSky Hldg Co (29.3%) margin starting to improve this year. CAGR of 14% for 2013-16E. Financial summary (CNY) Also, we expect TravelSky’s booking We regard the 2014E PER of 16x implied by our target price as fair, as Year to 31 Dec 14E 15E 16E growth to move in line with China’s Revenue (m) 5,099 5,827 6,668 we believe the development of new aviation traffic growth, and believe Operating profit (m) 1,407 1,646 1,949 the impact of foreign competition IT-related services warrants the Net profit (m) 1,318 1,518 1,779 stock trading at a premium to its Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.451 0.519 0.608 will be limited. Further long-term EPS change (%) 9.3 15.1 17.2 earnings drivers would include past-5-year average of 11x. The main risk to our call would be weaker- Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (10.8) (9.8) n.a. contributions from the accounting PER (x) 13.0 11.3 9.6 settlement service, air-freight than-expected booking growth. Dividend yield (%) 2.6 3.1 3.6 logistics system, IT outsourcing DPS 0.155 0.178 0.209 ■ How we differ PBR (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 service, and the monetisation of As one of 2 brokers covering the EV/EBITDA (x) 7.8 6.9 5.9 Umetrip (TravelSky’s smartphone stock we are more positive on the ROE (%) 13.8 14.4 15.2 app). We expect the monetisation of Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 13 Information Technology / China 696 HK 2 April 2014 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Overall passenger booking growth 17.9 17.2 9.2 8.9 11.1 11.7 11.7 0.0 Domestic passenger booking growth 21.9 15.5 8.6 7.8 10.3 11.0 11.0 0.0 Int'l passenger booking growth (%) (3.2) 28.4 12.8 15.3 15.6 15.0 15.0 0.0 Foreign airlines passenger booking 2.1 29.6 15.5 27.5 19.3 15.0 15.0 0.0 growth (%) PRC airlines' int'l passenger booking (4.9) 27.9 11.8 10.8 14.0 15.0 15.0 0.0 growth (%) Profit and loss (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Aviation information technology service 1,808 2,083 2,259 2,436 2,582 2,825 3,092 3,385 Accounting, settlement and clearing 250 296 380 430 431 496 570 656 Other Revenue 469 566 899 1,091 1,465 1,778 2,164 2,628 Total Revenue 2,527 2,945 3,538 3,956 4,479 5,099 5,827 6,668 Other income 00000000 COGS (1,115) (1,160) (1,497) (1,916) (2,403) (2,747) (3,146) (3,586) SG&A (273) (393) (452) (491) (461) (515) (575) (642) Other op.expenses (341) (404) (406) (331) (381) (430) (460) (491) Operating profit 798 988 1,182 1,218 1,234 1,407 1,646 1,949 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 8139644964806861 Assoc/forex/extraord./others2420373815161718 Pre-tax profit 904 1,047 1,283 1,304 1,312 1,503 1,731 2,028 Tax (109) (130) (208) (142) (73) (150) (173) (203) Min. int./pref. div./others (19) (22) (28) (30) (34) (35) (40) (47) Net profit (reported) 776 894 1,047 1,133 1,206 1,318 1,518 1,779 Net profit (adjusted) 776 894 1,047 1,133 1,206 1,318 1,518 1,779 EPS (reported)(CNY) 0.269 0.306 0.358 0.387 0.412 0.451 0.519 0.608 EPS (adjusted)(CNY) 0.269 0.306 0.358 0.387 0.412 0.451 0.519 0.608 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(CNY) 0.269 0.306 0.358 0.387 0.412 0.451 0.519 0.608 DPS (CNY) 0.089 0.105 0.120 0.133 0.140 0.155 0.178 0.209 EBIT 798 988 1,182 1,218 1,234 1,407 1,646 1,949 EBITDA 1,212 1,446 1,686 1,549 1,614 1,837 2,106 2,440 Cash flow (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Profit before tax 904 1,047 1,283 1,304 1,312 1,503 1,731 2,028 Depreciation and amortisation 338 359 354 279 328 378 407 439 Tax paid (110) (143) (135) (249) (3) (150) (173) (203) Change in working capital (384) 54 (169) (570) 130 0 0 0 Other operational CF items (37) (14) (14) (67) (23) (41) (30) (24) Cash flow from operations 711 1,303 1,319 697 1,744 1,690 1,936 2,241 Capex (259) (2,345) (212) (363) (834) (1,760) (1,860) (1,560) Net (acquisitions)/disposals 15 565 (354) 1,058 (107) 0 0 0 Other investing CF items 87 66 (444) (181) 69 85 74 68 Cash flow from investing (157) (1,715) (1,010) 514 (872) (1,675) (1,786) (1,492) Change in debt 0 0 0 00000 Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 00000 Dividends paid (313) (243) (316) (358) (396) (417) (460) (529) Other financing CF items 0 0 0 00000 Cash flow from financing (313) (243) (316) (358) (396) (417) (460) (529) Forex effect/others (1) (2,522) (1,742) (2,461) (1,031) (1,132) (1,132) (1,132) Change in cash 240 (3,177) (1,748) (1,608) (556) (1,534) (1,443) (913) Free cash flow 452 (1,041) 1,107 334 910 (70) 76 681 Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts - 2 - Information Technology / China 696 HK 2 April 2014 Financial summary continued … Balance sheet (CNYm) As at 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Cash & short-term investment 3,859 2,638 2,983 2,771 3,481 2,945 2,634 2,854 Inventory 884299999 Accounts receivable 1,561 1,628 2,059 2,543 2,642 2,642 2,642 2,642 Other current assets 379 265 763 1,228 915 915 915 915 Total current assets 5,807 4,539 5,809 6,571 7,047 6,511 6,200 6,420 Fixed assets 933 1,098 950 897 1,458 2,684 3,881 4,746 Goodwill & intangibles 83 104 51 63 202 202 202 202 Other non-current assets 286 2,219 2,196 2,350 2,434 2,688 2,907 3,126 Total assets 7,109 7,960 9,007 9,881 11,142 12,085 13,190 14,494 Short-term debt 0 0 0 00000 Accounts payable 861 1,033 1,321 1,408 1,771 1,771 1,771 1,771 Other current liabilities 7 41 40 24 52 52 52 52 Total current liabilities 868 1,073 1,362 1,432 1,823 1,823 1,823 1,823 Long-term debt 0 0 0 00000 Other non-current liabilities 20 19 18 17 18 18 18 18 Total liabilities 888 1,093 1,380 1,449 1,841 1,841 1,841 1,841 Share capital 1,951 1,951 2,926 2,926 2,926 2,926 2,926 2,926 Reserves/R.E./others 4,160 4,792 4,555 5,337 6,151 7,060 8,125 9,382 Shareholders' equity 6,111 6,743 7,481 8,263 9,078 9,986 11,051 12,309 Minority interests 110 124 145 168 223 257 297 344 Total equity & liabilities 7,109 7,960 9,007 9,881 11,142 12,085 13,190 14,494 EV 13,220 14,448 14,101 14,327 13,677 14,248 14,599 14,426 Net debt/(cash) (3,859) (2,638) (2,983) (2,771) (3,481) (2,945) (2,634) (2,854) BVPS (CNY) 2.088 2.304 2.557 2.824 3.102 3.413 3.777 4.206 Key ratios (%) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Sales (YoY) 15.4 16.5 20.1 11.8 13.2 13.9 14.3 14.4 EBITDA (YoY) 18.4 19.3 16.6 (8.1) 4.2 13.8 14.6 15.9 Operating profit (YoY) 30.3 23.8 19.6 3.0 1.3 14.1 17.0 18.4 Net profit (YoY) 21.5 15.3 17.1 8.2 6.4 9.3 15.1 17.2 Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 12.3 13.5 17.1 8.2 6.4 9.3 15.1 17.2 Gross-profit margin 55.9 60.6 57.7 51.6 46.3 46.1 46.0 46.2 EBITDA margin 48.0 49.1 47.7 39.2 36.0 36.0 36.1 36.6 Operating-profit margin 31.6 33.5 33.4 30.8 27.5 27.6 28.2 29.2 Net profit margin 30.7 30.4 29.6 28.6 26.9 25.9 26.1 26.7 ROAE 13.4 13.9 14.7 14.4 13.9 13.8 14.4 15.2 ROAA 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.0 11.5 11.4 12.0 12.9 ROCE 13.6 15.1 16.3 15.2 13.9 14.4 15.2 16.2 ROIC 33.0 26.2 22.3 21.1 20.3 19.3 18.5 19.0 Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Effective tax rate 12.1 12.5 16.2 10.9 5.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 Accounts receivable (days) 193.3 197.6 190.2 212.3 211.3 189.1 165.5 144.6 Current ratio (x) 6.7 4.2 4.3 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.5 Net interest cover (x) n.a.
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